{"id":182,"date":"2026-10-13T11:25:35","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T11:25:35","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/?page_id=182"},"modified":"2026-10-13T18:04:12","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T18:04:12","slug":"food-system-shocks","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/topics\/food-system-shocks\/","title":{"rendered":"Food system shocks"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- Nexus network page \u00b7 https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/topics\/food-system-shocks\/ \u00b7 source authored \u00b7 generated by integrations\/wordpress\/network\/build.mjs, never edit this file --><script type=\"text\/x-nexus\" class=\"_iub_cs_skip\" id=\"nxe-fig-engine\" 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:where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-ndpyva7m.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><section class=\"nx-hero\" data-layout=\"dag\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-title-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-theme-toggle\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Appearance of this page\" hidden><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"light\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Light<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"dark\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Dark<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"auto\" aria-pressed=\"true\">Auto<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-folio\" aria-label=\"Document reference\"><strong>G02 \u00b7 TOPIC \u00b7 food-system-shocks<\/strong>GCRI dossier \u00b7 service level R0<\/div><div class=\"nx-hero-grid\"><div class=\"nx-hero-text\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">GCRI<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u00b7<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Food Nexus<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u00b7<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Established<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-accent-row\"><span class=\"nx-accent-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span>Topic dossier \u00b7 Food Nexus<\/span><\/div><h1 id=\"nx-title-1\" class=\"nx-hero-title\">Food system shocks<\/h1><p class=\"nx-tagline\">Food systems are hit by shocks that start in different places: drought and flood, pests such as desert locust and fall armyworm, plant and animal disease, conflict, economic crises and disruption of trade or energy. The damage depends less on the shock itself than on what it meets: concentrated supply, low stocks, high import dependence, indebted households and weak services. This page sets out how food-system shocks propagate and compound, how they are monitored, and who acts on the evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/contact\/\">Make an enquiry <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/topics\/\">Back to Topics<\/a><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-hero-canvas\"><div class=\"nx-plate\" data-wide=\"true\"><div class=\"nx-plate-label\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><strong>Systems<\/strong> \u00b7 around this subject<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Design, not a record<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-figure-frame\" data-scene=\"true\"><figure class=\"nx-fk nx-cx\" data-fk=\"cx-food-early-warning\" data-cx=\"food.early-warning\" data-variant=\"section\" aria-label=\"Market and harvest early warning: illustrative console with placeholder names and values\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><figcaption class=\"nx-fk-cap\"><span>Market and harvest early warning: the screen's structure, terms and states for Food system shocks.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Placeholder names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-caption\"><strong>Fig.<\/strong><span>Market and harvest early warning. Design wireframe with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record or a live system.<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section> <nav class=\"nx-index-strip\" data-nx-spy=\"true\" aria-label=\"On this page\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><a href=\"#nx-sec-brief-answer\"><span>01<\/span>The short answer<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-field\"><span>02<\/span>Food systems and trade routes in\u2026<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-question\"><span>03<\/span>Food system shocks: how the risk\u2026<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-terms\"><span>04<\/span>Terms used on this page<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-indicators\"><span>05<\/span>What is measured, and how well<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-pipeline\"><span>06<\/span>From sources to decisions<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-sources\"><span>07<\/span>Where the evidence comes from<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-decisions\"><span>08<\/span>Who decides, and what the evidence\u2026<\/a><\/div><\/nav> <section id=\"nx-sec-brief-answer\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"food\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">In brief<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-2\" class=\"nx-section-title\">The short answer.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Food system shocks are sudden disruptions that start in weather, pests, disease, conflict, economic crisis or trade and reach what people can eat. The harm depends on what the shock meets: concentrated supply, low stocks, import dependence, indebted households and weak services. Early warning systems such as FEWS NET and FAO GIEWS monitor them; anticipatory action releases help before the peak.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-field\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"supply\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Geography<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-3\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Food systems and trade routes in Central America.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Plains, deltas and basins, the corridors that carry food to ports, and how far each division sits from one, shown for Central America as an example geography for this subject.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-canvas-wrap\"><div class=\"nx-map nx-cmap\" data-nx-map=\"ctx\" data-cmap=\"central-america:food\" data-ramp=\"orange\" data-basis=\"case\" data-focus=\"0 0 2000 1400|690 459 1212 927|516 298 1170 681|214 149 638 594|1182 1040 1815 1305\"><figure class=\"nx-fk\" data-fk=\"map-central-america-food\" data-ramp=\"orange\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><figcaption class=\"nx-fk-cap\"><span>Plains, deltas and basins, the corridors that carry food to ports, and how far each division sits from one.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Indicator derived from Natural Earth at map scale; a screening view, not an assessment.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><div class=\"nx-live-slot nx-live-slot--map\" data-nxf-slot=\"map\" data-nxf-kind=\"map\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/G02\/topics\/food-system-shocks\/#map\" data-nxf-title=\"Food Nexus live map\" data-nxf-height=\"560\" hidden><\/div><div class=\"nx-map-hud\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 Food Nexus \u00b7 field<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-map-hud-right\">DESIGN FIGURE<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-question\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"climate\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">The question<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-4\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Food system shocks: how the risk develops.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Disease, drought, conflict and supply disruption. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-cells\" data-cols=\"2\"><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M12 2v2\"\/><path d=\"m4.93 4.93 1.41 1.41\"\/><path d=\"M20 12h2\"\/><path d=\"m19.07 4.93-1.41 1.41\"\/><path d=\"M15.947 12.65a4 4 0 0 0-5.925-4.128\"\/><path d=\"M3 20a5 5 0 1 1 8.9-4H13a3 3 0 0 1 2 5.24\"\/><path d=\"M11 20v2\"\/><path d=\"M7 19v2\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Weather shocks hit output and income<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Drought, heat and flood reduce harvests, kill livestock and destroy stores, and they cut farm labour income at the same time. Rural households lose their food and the money to buy it in the same season.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M19 14c1.49-1.46 3-3.21 3-5.5A5.5 5.5 0 0 0 16.5 3c-1.76 0-3 .5-4.5 2-1.5-1.5-2.74-2-4.5-2A5.5 5.5 0 0 0 2 8.5c0 2.3 1.5 4.05 3 5.5l7 7Z\"\/><path d=\"M3.22 12l6.28 0 .5-1 2 4.5 2-7 1.5 3.5 5.27 0\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Transboundary pests and disease<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Desert locust swarms, fall armyworm, wheat rusts, African swine fever and avian influenza spread with wind, trade and animal movement. Control depends on surveillance and rapid response in countries that may lack both.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M4 15s1-1 4-1 5 2 8 2 4-1 4-1V3s-1 1-4 1-5-2-8-2-4 1-4 1z\"\/><line x1=\"4\" x2=\"4\" y1=\"22\" y2=\"15\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Conflict breaks every link<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Conflict displaces farmers, blocks markets and aid, destroys infrastructure and drives up prices. It is a leading driver of the most severe food crises and often coincides with weather and economic shocks.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"4.5\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"m10.2 6.3-3.9 3.9\"\/><circle cx=\"4.5\" cy=\"12\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"M7 12h10\"\/><circle cx=\"19.5\" cy=\"12\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"m13.8 17.7 3.9-3.9\"\/><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"19.5\" r=\"2.5\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Shocks compound and cascade<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">A drought that coincides with a currency crisis, a fertiliser price spike and an export ban causes far more hunger than any one alone. Recovery is slow because assets sold to cope are not quickly rebuilt.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-terms\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"food\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-5\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Key terms<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-5\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Terms used on this page.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Anticipatory action<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">Pre-agreed action and finance released on a forecast or early warning trigger, before a hazard's peak impact.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Famine<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">The most extreme food crisis, classified by the IPC when thresholds for food consumption, acute malnutrition and mortality are all crossed in an area.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Transboundary pest<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">A pest such as desert locust or fall armyworm that spreads across borders and needs regional monitoring and control.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Sendai indicator C-2<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">Direct agricultural loss attributed to disasters, reported by countries under the Sendai Framework monitor.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-indicators\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"supply\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-6\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Indicators<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-6\" class=\"nx-section-title\">What is measured, and how well.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Seasonal rainfall anomaly<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">percent of the long-term mean<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">dekadal<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Satellite and gauge rainfall<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">ESTIMATED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Agricultural stress index<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">percent of cropland affected by water stress<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">dekadal<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Satellite vegetation and temperature indices<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">MODELLED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Desert locust situation level<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">warning level from calm to danger<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">FAO Desert Locust Information Service<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">OFFICIAL<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Animal disease events notified<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">count by disease and country<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Official veterinary notifications<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">OFFICIAL<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Conflict events in agricultural areas<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">events per administrative unit<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Event coding from media and partner reports<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Projected population in IPC Phase 3 or above<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">persons<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">per analysis<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">IPC and Cadre Harmonis\u00e9 projections<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">FORECAST<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Direct agricultural loss from disasters (Sendai indicator C-2)<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">monetary value at constant prices<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">per event<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Post-disaster needs assessments<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">ESTIMATED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"indicators\" data-nxf-kind=\"indicator\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/G02\/topics\/food-system-shocks\/#indicators\" data-nxf-title=\"Indicators\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-pipeline\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"climate\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-7\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Canvas<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-7\" class=\"nx-section-title\">From sources to decisions.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The topic as a computational graph: named sources feed the methods, an evidence review gates the outputs, and the decisions stay with the authorities that hold them.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-plate\" data-wide=\"true\"><div class=\"nx-plate-label\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><strong>Pipeline canvas<\/strong> \u00b7 Food system shocks as a run graph<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Design, not a record<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-figure-frame\" data-scene=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-figure nx-ui nx-dag\" viewBox=\"0 0 1200 564\" data-nx-dag=\"true\" data-w=\"1200\" data-h=\"564\" role=\"img\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-dag-g02-topics-food-system-shocks-food-ew-t nx-dag-g02-topics-food-system-shocks-food-ew-d\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><title id=\"nx-dag-g02-topics-food-system-shocks-food-ew-t\">Food system shocks: food security early warning to early action<\/title><desc id=\"nx-dag-g02-topics-food-system-shocks-food-ew-d\">Market prices, crop conditions and rainfall feed a seasonal outlook and a food security analysis by area; projected phases are tested against pre-agreed triggers, and early actions are released before the lean season. Design of the process, not a record of a run.<\/desc><\/svg><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-caption\"><strong>Fig. 02<\/strong><span>Nodes carry their type, two metric rows and a state; connectors show what feeds what; dashed frames name the owners; the timeline is the cadence. Design of the pipeline, not a record of a run.<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-sources\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"food\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-8\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">07<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Sources<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-8\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Where the evidence comes from.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it gives<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">FAO Global Information and Early Warning System (GIEWS)<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Country briefs, agricultural stress index and crop prospects<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free and open, attribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">FAO Desert Locust Watch and Locust Hub<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Locust situation bulletins, survey and control records<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free and open, attribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">WOAH World Animal Health Information System (WAHIS)<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Official notifications of animal disease events<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Public, terms per WOAH<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">ACLED<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Coded conflict and protest events with location and date<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free with registration, terms per ACLED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">EM-DAT (CRED)<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Disaster events and recorded impacts by country<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free for non-commercial use, registration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">CHIRPS rainfall<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Gauge-blended satellite rainfall for drought monitoring<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Public domain<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">Global Report on Food Crises<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Annual synthesis of acute food insecurity and its drivers by country<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free, attribution<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"evidence\" data-nxf-kind=\"evidence\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/G02\/topics\/food-system-shocks\/#evidence\" data-nxf-title=\"Sources\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-decisions\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"supply\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-9\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">08<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Decisions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-9\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Who decides, and what the evidence serves.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Food Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\" data-lv=\"ledger\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Who decides<\/th><th scope=\"col\">The question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence this page serves<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Disaster management and agriculture ministries<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">When to activate contingency plans, release reserves or request assistance<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Early-warning indicators agreeing across sources; projected acute food insecurity phases<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Plant protection and veterinary services<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Where to survey, treat, vaccinate or restrict movement<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Pest and disease notifications, habitat conditions and animal and trade movements<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Humanitarian agencies and anticipatory action financiers<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Whether forecast triggers justify acting before the shock peaks<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Trigger skill from hindcasts, lead time, and the cost of acting and of not acting<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Sovereign risk pools and agricultural insurers<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Whether a drought index pays when losses occur, and how basis risk is managed<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Index performance against recorded losses by season and area<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-4\">Outputs this topic produces<\/h3><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Compound shock scenarios across weather, pests, conflict, prices and trade<\/li><li>Cascade traces from shock to production, markets and access, labelled at each step<\/li><li>Anticipatory action trigger designs with their historical performance<\/li><li>Prepositioning and response options under alternative shocks<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-core-questions\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"climate\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-10\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">09<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Core questions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-10\" class=\"nx-section-title\">What experts ask.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">History shows that the most severe food crises seldom have one cause. They arise when a production shock meets weak buffers, high prices and constrained public finances, often during conflict. Experts therefore study shocks as combinations and sequences, and ask how preparation and early action can break the chain before harm peaks.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Which shocks are most likely in a given food system, and which could coincide?<\/li><li>How do shocks propagate from production to prices to household consumption, and over what time frames?<\/li><li>Which early signals give useful warning, and how reliable are they?<\/li><li>What preparedness and anticipatory measures reduce harm, and what evidence supports them?<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-mechanisms\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"food\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-11\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">10<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanisms<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-11\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Drivers and processes.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Shocks compound when buffers are thin and when they strike several links at once.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-cells\" data-cols=\"3\"><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M12 2v2\"\/><path d=\"m4.93 4.93 1.41 1.41\"\/><path d=\"M20 12h2\"\/><path d=\"m19.07 4.93-1.41 1.41\"\/><path d=\"M15.947 12.65a4 4 0 0 0-5.925-4.128\"\/><path d=\"M3 20a5 5 0 1 1 8.9-4H13a3 3 0 0 1 2 5.24\"\/><path d=\"M11 20v2\"\/><path d=\"M7 19v2\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Hazard<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Weather and climate<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Droughts, floods and heat cause the largest production losses. Climate change alters their frequency and severity. See <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/climate-hazards\/\">Climate and Hazards<\/a>.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M6 18h8\"\/><path d=\"M3 22h18\"\/><path d=\"M14 22a7 7 0 1 0 0-14h-1\"\/><path d=\"M9 14h2\"\/><path d=\"M9 12a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6h6v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2Z\"\/><path d=\"M12 6V3a1 1 0 0 0-1-1H9a1 1 0 0 0-1 1v3\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Biology<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Pests and disease<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Outbreaks such as locusts, wheat rusts or animal diseases can spread quickly across borders.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"4.5\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"m10.2 6.3-3.9 3.9\"\/><circle cx=\"4.5\" cy=\"12\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"M7 12h10\"\/><circle cx=\"19.5\" cy=\"12\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"m13.8 17.7 3.9-3.9\"\/><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"19.5\" r=\"2.5\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Human<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Conflict and policy<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Conflict destroys assets and blocks access; trade restrictions and economic crises reduce supply and purchasing power.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-methods-and-data\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"supply\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-12\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">11<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Methods and data<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-12\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How the evidence is built, and its limits.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ol class=\"nx-rows\"><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">01<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Early warning indicators<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Rainfall, vegetation, price and pest signals, analysed with <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/forecasting\/\">forecasting and time-series analysis<\/a>, give lead time. False alarms and missed events both occur.<\/p><\/div><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">02<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Scenario analysis<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Explores compound shocks and cascades. Scenarios are explorations, not forecasts.<\/p><\/div><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">03<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Historical analysis<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Past crises show patterns of propagation and response, though conditions change.<\/p><\/div><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">04<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Anticipatory action evidence<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Evaluations of pre-agreed actions taken before a shock peaks are growing but remain limited for some hazards.<\/p><\/div><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-methods\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"climate\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-13\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">12<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Methods<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-13\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-methods\" data-limits=\"true\"><ol class=\"nx-mledger\" aria-label=\"Methods\"><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/stem\/forecasting\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Forecasting and time-series analysis<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Seasonal production outlooks \u00b7 Staple price forecasting \u00b7 Anticipatory action triggers<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/forecasting\/\" aria-label=\"Forecasting and time-series analysis: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/stem\/earth-observation\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Earth observation and remote sensing<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Crop condition monitoring \u00b7 Crop type and area mapping \u00b7 Irrigation and water productivity<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/technology\/earth-observation\/\" aria-label=\"Earth observation and remote sensing: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/stem\/ecology\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Ecology and biodiversity science<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Pollination and natural pest control \u00b7 Fisheries and aquatic food webs<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/science\/ecology\/\" aria-label=\"Ecology and biodiversity science: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/stem\/econometrics\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Econometrics<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Price transmission and market integration \u00b7 Effects of trade policy<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/econometrics\/\" aria-label=\"Econometrics: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/stem\/optimization\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Optimization and operations research<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Humanitarian supply and prepositioning \u00b7 Strategic reserve design<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/optimization\/\" aria-label=\"Optimization and operations research: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/stem\/hydrology\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Hydrology and water science<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Irrigation supply and demand \u00b7 Agricultural drought monitoring \u00b7 Flood exposure of cropland<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/science\/hydrology\/\" aria-label=\"Hydrology and water science: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><\/ol><aside class=\"nx-limits\" aria-label=\"What the methods cannot say\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">What the methods cannot say<\/span><p class=\"nx-limits-text\">Shocks rarely arrive alone, and the record of compound events is too short to estimate their joint probability with confidence. Conflict data depend on reporting and are thinnest where conflict is worst. Pest and disease surveillance is uneven, so an absence of reports is not an absence of outbreaks. Forecast triggers carry false alarms and misses. Food Nexus issues no warnings or classifications; national authorities, the IPC and technical agencies do, under their own mandates.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-14-sec\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"food\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-14\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">13<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Questions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-14\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Questions and answers.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-faq\"><details><summary>What is anticipatory action?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Acting on a forecast before a shock peaks, using pre-agreed triggers, plans and finance. It aims to protect lives and assets at lower cost than response after the fact, and its triggers are tested against past events.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Why is conflict so central to food crises?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Because it disrupts production, markets, incomes and aid at once and blocks recovery. Analyses of acute food insecurity consistently identify conflict as a leading driver of the most severe crises.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Are pest and disease outbreaks predictable?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Partly. Locust breeding follows rain and vegetation that satellites can monitor, and some crop diseases follow weather conditions. Animal disease spread depends on trade and movement, which are harder to anticipate.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Who declares a famine?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Famine classification follows the IPC protocols and is reviewed by the independent Famine Review Committee. Governments and United Nations agencies communicate it; no data platform declares it.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Does Food Nexus issue early warnings?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">No. Warnings are issued by competent national authorities and mandated agencies. The platform studies signals and their reliability.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Can shocks be ranked by importance?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Their importance depends on the system and the people exposed. The platform describes shocks and their pathways rather than publishing rankings.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>How does climate change affect food system shocks?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">It changes the frequency, intensity and location of heat, drought and heavy rainfall, and shifts the range of some pests and diseases. Attribution of any single event follows established scientific methods and states its confidence.<\/div><\/details><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-rel-15\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Related<\/span><h2 id=\"nx-rel-15\" class=\"nx-h3 nx-mt-2\">Around Food Nexus.<\/h2><nav class=\"nx-related nx-mt-3\" aria-label=\"Related\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/topics\/agricultural-production\/\">Agricultural production <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/topics\/food-security-and-access\/\">Food security and access <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/topics\/soil-and-land\/\">Soil and land <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/topics\/food-water-energy\/\">Food, water and energy <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/topics\/storage-and-cold-chain\/\">Storage and cold chain <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/topics\/agritech-and-innovation\/\">Agritech and innovation <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/\">Food Nexus home <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/counterparts\/\">Counterparts across the Consortium <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/\">The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation home <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/trust\/\">GCRI governance and trust <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/nav><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-closing\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-close-16\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Food Nexus<\/span><h2 id=\"nx-close-16\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Bring your expertise to this field.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"mailto:contact@therisk.global?subject=Food%20Nexus%3A%20Food%20system%20shocks\">Write to the team <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/contact\/\">See all contact routes<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script>\n\n\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/topics\/food-system-shocks\/#faq\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/food-nexus\/topics\/food-system-shocks\/#webpage\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"What is anticipatory action?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Acting on a forecast before a shock peaks, using pre-agreed triggers, plans and finance. 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Animal disease spread depends on trade and movement, which are harder to anticipate.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Who declares a famine?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Famine classification follows the IPC protocols and is reviewed by the independent Famine Review Committee. Governments and United Nations agencies communicate it; no data platform declares it.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Does Food Nexus issue early warnings?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"No. Warnings are issued by competent national authorities and mandated agencies. The platform studies signals and their reliability.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Can shocks be ranked by importance?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Their importance depends on the system and the people exposed. The platform describes shocks and their pathways rather than publishing rankings.\"}},{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"How does climate change affect food system shocks?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"It changes the frequency, intensity and location of heat, drought and heavy rainfall, and shifts the range of some pests and diseases. 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