{"id":175,"date":"2026-10-13T12:08:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-13T12:08:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/?page_id=175"},"modified":"2026-10-13T19:24:35","modified_gmt":"2026-10-13T19:24:35","slug":"infectious-threats","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/topics\/infectious-threats\/","title":{"rendered":"Infectious threats"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- Nexus network page \u00b7 https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/topics\/infectious-threats\/ \u00b7 source authored \u00b7 generated by integrations\/wordpress\/network\/build.mjs, never edit this file --><script type=\"text\/x-nexus\" class=\"_iub_cs_skip\" id=\"nxe-fig-engine\" 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auto;padding:0 16px;font-family:ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,\"Segoe UI\",sans-serif;line-height:1.55;overflow-wrap:break-word}#nxe-nja03x3l.nxe :where(*,*::before,*::after){box-sizing:inherit}#nxe-nja03x3l.nxe :where(section,header,footer,nav,aside){display:block;margin:0 0 32px}#nxe-nja03x3l.nxe :where(h1,h2,h3,h4){line-height:1.2;margin:24px 0 12px;font-weight:600}#nxe-nja03x3l.nxe :where(p,ul,ol,dl,table,figure,details){margin:0 0 16px}#nxe-nja03x3l.nxe :where(ul,ol){padding-left:20px}#nxe-nja03x3l.nxe a{color:inherit;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:2px}#nxe-nja03x3l.nxe table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;display:block;overflow-x:auto}#nxe-nja03x3l.nxe :where(th,td){padding:6px 8px;text-align:left;vertical-align:top;border-bottom:1px solid;border-color:inherit}#nxe-nja03x3l.nxe svg{display:none}#nxe-nja03x3l.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nja03x3l.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nja03x3l.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><section class=\"nx-hero\" data-layout=\"dossier\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-title-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-theme-toggle\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Appearance of this page\" hidden><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"light\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Light<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"dark\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Dark<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"auto\" aria-pressed=\"true\">Auto<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-folio\" aria-label=\"Document reference\"><strong>G04 \u00b7 TOPIC \u00b7 infectious-threats<\/strong>GCRI dossier \u00b7 service level R0<\/div><div class=\"nx-hero-grid\"><div class=\"nx-hero-text\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">GCRI<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u00b7<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Health Nexus<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u00b7<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Established<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-accent-row\"><span class=\"nx-accent-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span>Topic dossier \u00b7 Health Nexus<\/span><\/div><h1 id=\"nx-title-1\" class=\"nx-hero-title\">Infectious threats<\/h1><p class=\"nx-tagline\">An outbreak becomes an emergency when a pathogen spreads faster than the systems that detect, characterise and contain it. Readiness depends on surveillance that sees early, laboratories that confirm, and evidence that is honest about what is not yet known. This page sets out how infectious threats emerge and spread, how they are detected and assessed, and how uncertainty is carried into the decisions of public health authorities.<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/contact\/\">Make an enquiry <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/topics\/\">Back to Topics<\/a><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-hero-panel\"><div class=\"nx-register\"><div class=\"nx-register-head\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><strong>Dossier<\/strong><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">G04 \u00b7 topic<\/span><\/div><ol class=\"nx-register-rows\"><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-brief-answer\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">In brief<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\">Definition and scope<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-question\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">The question<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\">4 mechanisms<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-terms\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Key terms<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">4<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-field\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Field<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\">H3 field plate<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-indicators\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Indicators<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">8<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-pipeline\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Pipeline<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\">Run graph<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-sources\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">07<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Sources<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">7<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-decisions\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">08<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Decision holders<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">4<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-methods\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">09<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Methods<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">6<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-register-foot\">GCRI \u00b7 Established \u00b7 service level R0<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section> <nav class=\"nx-index-strip\" data-nx-spy=\"true\" aria-label=\"On this page\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><a href=\"#nx-sec-brief-answer\"><span>01<\/span>The short answer<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-field\"><span>02<\/span>Access to care in the Horn of Africa<\/a><a href=\"#nx-s-4-sec\"><span>03<\/span>Surveillance and capacity board, in\u2026<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-question\"><span>04<\/span>Infectious threats: how the risk\u2026<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-terms\"><span>05<\/span>Terms used on this page<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-indicators\"><span>06<\/span>What is measured, and how well<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-pipeline\"><span>07<\/span>From sources to decisions<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-sources\"><span>08<\/span>Where the evidence comes from<\/a><\/div><\/nav> <section id=\"nx-sec-brief-answer\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">In brief<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-2\" class=\"nx-section-title\">The short answer.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">An infectious disease outbreak is an occurrence of cases above what is normally expected in a place and time. It becomes an emergency when the pathogen spreads faster than surveillance, laboratories and response can detect and contain it. Early figures change as reporting catches up, so estimates carry their delays and uncertainty.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-field\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Geography<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-3\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Access to care in the Horn of Africa.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">How far each division sits from a large city, with the roads and airports that carry patients and supplies, shown for the Horn of Africa as an example geography for this subject.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-canvas-wrap\"><div class=\"nx-map nx-cmap\" data-nx-map=\"ctx\" data-cmap=\"horn-of-africa:health\" data-ramp=\"red\" data-basis=\"case\" data-focus=\"0 0 2000 1400|345 154 1377 954|400 838 957 1400|893 351 1610 1309|1010 391 1442 633\"><figure class=\"nx-fk\" data-fk=\"map-horn-of-africa-health\" data-ramp=\"red\" 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\"><figcaption class=\"nx-fk-cap\"><span>How far each division sits from a large city, with the roads and airports that carry patients and supplies.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Indicator derived from Natural Earth at map scale; a screening view, not an assessment.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><div class=\"nx-live-slot nx-live-slot--map\" data-nxf-slot=\"map\" data-nxf-kind=\"map\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/G04\/topics\/infectious-threats\/#map\" data-nxf-title=\"Health Nexus live map\" data-nxf-height=\"560\" hidden><\/div><div class=\"nx-map-hud\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 Health Nexus \u00b7 field<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-map-hud-right\">DESIGN FIGURE<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-4-sec\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Console<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-4\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Surveillance and capacity board, in outline.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The working screen behind this subject: its structure, terms and states. Names are placeholders and values illustrative.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><figure class=\"nx-fk nx-cx\" data-fk=\"cx-health-surveillance\" data-cx=\"health.surveillance\" data-variant=\"section\" aria-label=\"Surveillance and capacity board: illustrative console with placeholder names and values\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><figcaption class=\"nx-fk-cap\"><span>Surveillance and capacity board: the screen's structure, terms and states for Infectious threats.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Placeholder names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-question\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-5\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">The question<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-5\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Infectious threats: how the risk develops.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Outbreak readiness, surveillance and uncertainty. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-cells\" data-cols=\"2\"><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M5 22h14\"\/><path d=\"M5 2h14\"\/><path d=\"M17 22v-4.172a2 2 0 0 0-.586-1.414L12 12l-4.414 4.414A2 2 0 0 0 7 17.828V22\"\/><path d=\"M7 2v4.172a2 2 0 0 0 .586 1.414L12 12l4.414-4.414A2 2 0 0 0 17 6.172V2\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Detection lags transmission<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Cases appear in surveillance only after infection, symptoms, care-seeking, testing and reporting. Each step adds delay and loses cases, so early counts describe the past and undercount the present.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><rect x=\"16\" y=\"16\" width=\"6\" height=\"6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect x=\"2\" y=\"16\" width=\"6\" height=\"6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect x=\"9\" y=\"2\" width=\"6\" height=\"6\" rx=\"1\"\/><path d=\"M5 16v-3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h12a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v3\"\/><path d=\"M12 12V8\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Contact and immunity shape spread<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Spread depends on the pathogen's transmissibility, the timing of infectiousness, population immunity and contact patterns. Mobility, crowding and mass gatherings connect local chains of transmission into regional and international ones.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M6 18h8\"\/><path d=\"M3 22h18\"\/><path d=\"M14 22a7 7 0 1 0 0-14h-1\"\/><path d=\"M9 14h2\"\/><path d=\"M9 12a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6h6v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2Z\"\/><path d=\"M12 6V3a1 1 0 0 0-1-1H9a1 1 0 0 0-1 1v3\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Pathogens evolve under pressure<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Variants with altered transmissibility, severity or immune escape arise and are selected. Genomic surveillance detects them, but only where sequencing capacity exists and samples and data are shared promptly.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"4.5\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"m10.2 6.3-3.9 3.9\"\/><circle cx=\"4.5\" cy=\"12\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"M7 12h10\"\/><circle cx=\"19.5\" cy=\"12\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"m13.8 17.7 3.9-3.9\"\/><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"19.5\" r=\"2.5\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Outbreaks cascade into other systems<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Surges strain hospitals and staff, travel and trade restrictions disrupt supply chains, and absenteeism reaches food, energy and transport. Public trust and the quality of information shape behaviour, and so the course of the outbreak itself.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-terms\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-6\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Key terms<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-6\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Terms used on this page.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Reproduction number<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">The average number of people one case infects; the time-varying value reflects current immunity and control measures.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Public health emergency of international concern<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">An extraordinary event that may spread internationally and need a coordinated response, declared by the WHO Director-General under the IHR.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Nowcasting<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">Estimating current case numbers by correcting recent counts for reporting delays.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Case fatality risk<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">The proportion of confirmed cases who die of the disease, which depends heavily on testing and case definitions.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-indicators\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-7\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Indicators<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-7\" class=\"nx-section-title\">What is measured, and how well.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Notified cases by date of onset<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">cases<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">daily or weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Indicator-based surveillance<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Time-varying reproduction number<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">dimensionless<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Transmission models on onset and case data<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">ESTIMATED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Test positivity<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">percent of tests positive<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Laboratory reporting<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">OBSERVED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Sequencing coverage<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">percent of confirmed cases sequenced<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Genomic surveillance and public repositories<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">OBSERVED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Timeliness of detection, notification and response<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">days between emergence, detection, notification and response<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">per event<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Event records against national timeliness targets<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infection<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">consultations or admissions per hundred thousand population<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Sentinel surveillance in GISRS<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">OBSERVED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Case fatality risk<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">percent of confirmed cases with known outcome<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">per event<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Line lists with outcome follow-up<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">ESTIMATED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Excess mortality<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">deaths above expected<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly or monthly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Vital registration against modelled baselines<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">ESTIMATED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"indicators\" data-nxf-kind=\"indicator\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/G04\/topics\/infectious-threats\/#indicators\" data-nxf-title=\"Indicators\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-pipeline\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-8\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">07<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Canvas<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-8\" class=\"nx-section-title\">From sources to decisions.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The topic as a computational graph: named sources feed the methods, an evidence review gates the outputs, and the decisions stay with the authorities that hold them.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-plate\" data-wide=\"true\"><div class=\"nx-plate-label\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><strong>Pipeline canvas<\/strong> \u00b7 Infectious threats as a run graph<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Design, not a record<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-figure-frame\" data-scene=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-figure nx-ui nx-dag\" viewBox=\"0 0 1200 564\" data-nx-dag=\"true\" data-w=\"1200\" data-h=\"564\" role=\"img\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-dag-g04-topics-infectious-threats-ihr-t nx-dag-g04-topics-infectious-threats-ihr-d\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><title id=\"nx-dag-g04-topics-infectious-threats-ihr-t\">Infectious threats: event detection, verification and notification<\/title><desc id=\"nx-dag-g04-topics-infectious-threats-ihr-d\">Indicator-based and event-based signals are triaged and verified; the national focal point assesses the event with the Annex 2 decision instrument and notifies within 24 hours when it qualifies; response and after-action review follow. Design of the process, not a record of a run.<\/desc><\/svg><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-caption\"><strong>Fig. 02<\/strong><span>Nodes carry their type, two metric rows and a state; connectors show what feeds what; dashed frames name the owners; the timeline is the cadence. Design of the pipeline, not a record of a run.<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-sources\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-9\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">08<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Sources<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-9\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Where the evidence comes from.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it gives<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">WHO Disease Outbreak News<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Official public reports on acute public health events<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Public records, WHO terms of use<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">WHO GISRS: FluNet and FluID<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Virological and epidemiological influenza surveillance from national influenza centres<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Open, attribution, WHO terms of use<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">GISAID<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Influenza and coronavirus genomes with sampling metadata<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Registered access under the GISAID database access agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">INSDC sequence archives and Nextstrain<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Open pathogen sequences and phylogenetic analyses<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free and unrestricted; open, attribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">ECDC Surveillance Atlas and Africa CDC epidemic intelligence reports<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Regional surveillance data and weekly event reports<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Open, attribution, terms per agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">ProMED and HealthMap<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Event-based signals from media, professional networks and informal reports<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Terms per service<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">Global.health<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">De-identified case line lists for selected outbreaks<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Open, attribution (CC BY 4.0)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"evidence\" data-nxf-kind=\"evidence\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/G04\/topics\/infectious-threats\/#evidence\" data-nxf-title=\"Sources\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-decisions\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-10\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">09<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Decisions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-10\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Who decides, and what the evidence serves.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Health Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\" data-lv=\"ledger\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Who decides<\/th><th scope=\"col\">The question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence this page serves<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">National public health institutes<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Whether a signal is a true event, and what investigation and response it warrants<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Signal verification trail; line lists; nowcasts with their uncertainty<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">IHR National Focal Points<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Whether an event meets the criteria for notification to WHO under the IHR decision instrument<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Event assessments with the evidence for each criterion labelled<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Hospital systems<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">How much surge capacity to activate, and when<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Admission scenarios by region with confidence bands<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Ministries of health and cabinets<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Which public health and social measures to apply, adjust or lift, and for how long<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Transmission estimates; evidence on the effects of measures with its limits; cascade scenarios<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-4\">Outputs this topic produces<\/h3><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Outbreak situation evidence with reporting delays and completeness stated<\/li><li>Nowcasts and short-term scenarios with their skill reported<\/li><li>Genomic context for emerging variants and lineages<\/li><li>Readiness evidence read against IHR core capacities<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-core-questions\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-11\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">10<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Core questions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-11\" class=\"nx-section-title\">What experts ask.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Most decisions about outbreaks are made before the facts are settled.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Is an unusual signal a real outbreak, and how fast is it growing?<\/li><li>How transmissible and how severe is the pathogen, and for whom?<\/li><li>How much transmission occurs before symptoms appear?<\/li><li>What effect would testing, isolation, vaccination or other measures have, and at what social cost?<\/li><li>When does health-system demand exceed capacity?<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-mechanisms\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-12\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">11<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanisms<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-12\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Mechanisms and drivers.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><p class=\"nx-p\">Transmission depends on the pathogen's biology, contact patterns between people, immunity in the population and the environment. The reproduction number summarizes how many people each case infects on average; when it stays above one, case numbers grow. Mobility, crowding, seasonality and human behaviour change the reproduction number over time.<\/p><p class=\"nx-p\">Severity depends on age, underlying conditions, access to care and how stretched the health system is. A pathogen of moderate severity can still overwhelm hospitals if it spreads widely, which is why the indirect harm from disrupted services can rival the direct harm of the infection.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-methods-and-data\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-13\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">12<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Methods and data<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-13\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How it is studied, and where the methods stop.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Method or data<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Limits<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Method or data\">Indicator and event-based surveillance<\/td><td data-label=\"What it shows\">Unusual clusters and trends from reports, laboratories and media<\/td><td data-label=\"Limits\">Reporting delays, under-ascertainment and changing testing practice<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Method or data\">Genomic surveillance<\/td><td data-label=\"What it shows\">Variants, transmission chains and introductions<\/td><td data-label=\"Limits\">Uneven sequencing capacity and sampling bias<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Method or data\">Compartmental and agent-based models<\/td><td data-label=\"What it shows\">Scenarios of spread and the effect of interventions<\/td><td data-label=\"Limits\">Highly sensitive to uncertain parameters early in an outbreak<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Method or data\">Nowcasting and short-term forecasting<\/td><td data-label=\"What it shows\">Current and near-future trends corrected for reporting delay<\/td><td data-label=\"Limits\">Reliable only over short horizons<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Method or data\">Serological surveys<\/td><td data-label=\"What it shows\">How many people have been infected<\/td><td data-label=\"Limits\">Antibody waning and test performance complicate interpretation<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-methods\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-14\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">13<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Methods<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-14\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-methods\" data-limits=\"true\"><ol class=\"nx-mledger\" aria-label=\"Methods\"><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/stem\/epidemiology\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Epidemiology and public health science<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Surveillance design and evaluation \u00b7 Nowcasting under reporting delay<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/science\/epidemiology\/\" aria-label=\"Epidemiology and public health science: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/stem\/probability-statistics\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Probability and statistics<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Survey-weighted and small-area estimation \u00b7 Expected baselines for excess mortality<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/probability-statistics\/\" aria-label=\"Probability and statistics: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/stem\/life-sciences\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Molecular and life sciences<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Genomic surveillance of pathogens \u00b7 Cross-species linkage in One Health<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/science\/life-sciences\/\" aria-label=\"Molecular and life sciences: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/stem\/complex-systems\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Complex systems and agent-based modelling<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Contact and mobility networks \u00b7 Cascades across health and infrastructure<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/complex-systems\/\" aria-label=\"Complex systems and agent-based modelling: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/stem\/data-engineering\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Data engineering, interoperability and stewardship<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Linking health information systems \u00b7 Privacy-preserving publication<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/technology\/data-engineering\/\" aria-label=\"Data engineering, interoperability and stewardship: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/stem\/causal-inference\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Causal inference and impact evaluation<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Evaluating public health measures \u00b7 Exposure-response for heat and air<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/causal-inference\/\" aria-label=\"Causal inference and impact evaluation: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><\/ol><aside class=\"nx-limits\" aria-label=\"What the methods cannot say\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">What the methods cannot say<\/span><p class=\"nx-limits-text\">Early in an outbreak, counts are small, delayed and biased toward severe cases, so estimates of severity and transmissibility change as data mature. Surveillance sees what is tested, and changes in testing change the counts. Genomic coverage is uneven between regions. Scenarios are conditional on assumptions and are not forecasts. Health Nexus does not verify events, declare emergencies or issue alerts; IHR National Focal Points, public health authorities and WHO do.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-15-sec\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-15\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">14<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Questions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-15\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Questions and answers.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-faq\"><details><summary>Why do early outbreak numbers change so much?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Because reports arrive late, mild cases are missed and outcomes are not yet known. Estimates are revised as data mature, and nowcasting methods adjust for the delays that can be measured.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>What is the difference between a forecast and a scenario?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">A forecast states what is expected to happen with a probability and can be checked against what happens. A scenario explores what would follow from stated assumptions, such as a change in measures, and is not a prediction.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>What is a public health emergency of international concern?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Under the International Health Regulations, an extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other states through international spread and may require a coordinated international response. The WHO Director-General determines it, after advice from an emergency committee.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Does Health Nexus issue outbreak alerts?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">No. Alerts and notifications come from national public health authorities, IHR National Focal Points and WHO. Health Nexus prepares evidence those bodies can examine under their own procedures.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Are outbreak models predictions?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Models are usually scenarios: they show what could happen under stated assumptions. Short-term forecasts are labelled as such and carry uncertainty ranges. Neither is a statement of what will happen.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Why do early estimates change so much?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Early data is sparse, delayed and biased towards severe cases. As testing expands and studies report, estimates of transmissibility and severity are revised, which is expected and should be communicated openly.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Does Health Nexus publish outbreak alerts?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">No. Alerts and public health guidance come from competent health authorities. Health Nexus publishes reviewed research and methods.<\/div><\/details><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-rel-16\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Related<\/span><h2 id=\"nx-rel-16\" class=\"nx-h3 nx-mt-2\">Around Health Nexus.<\/h2><nav class=\"nx-related nx-mt-3\" aria-label=\"Related\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/topics\/health-system-continuity\/\">Health system continuity <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/topics\/one-health\/\">One Health <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/topics\/health-equity\/\">Health equity <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/topics\/environmental-health\/\">Environmental health <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/topics\/health-supply-chains\/\">Health supply chains <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/topics\/digital-health-risk\/\">Digital health risk <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/\">Health Nexus home <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/counterparts\/\">Counterparts across the Consortium <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/\">The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation home <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/trust\/\">GCRI governance and trust <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/nav><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-closing\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-close-17\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Health Nexus<\/span><h2 id=\"nx-close-17\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Bring your expertise to this field.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"mailto:contact@therisk.global?subject=Health%20Nexus%3A%20Infectious%20threats\">Write to the team <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/contact\/\">See all contact routes<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script>\n\n\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/topics\/infectious-threats\/#faq\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/topics\/infectious-threats\/#webpage\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Why do early outbreak numbers change so much?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Because reports arrive late, mild cases are missed and outcomes are not yet known. 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