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aria-labelledby=\"nx-scene-title\"><div class=\"nx-scene-intro nx-es-intro\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> \u00b7 Health Nexus<\/p><span class=\"nx-scene-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 id=\"nx-scene-title\" class=\"nx-scene-title\">Infectious threats<\/h1><p class=\"nx-scene-lede\">An outbreak becomes an emergency when a pathogen spreads faster than the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> that detect, characterise and contain it. Readiness depends on surveillance that sees early, laboratories that confirm, and evidence that is honest about what is not yet known. This page sets out how infectious threats emerge and spread, how they are detected and assessed, and how uncertainty is carried into the decisions of public health authorities.<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/write-to-us\/contact\/\">Make an enquiry <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/topics\/\">Back to Topics<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-1-sec\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Register<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-1\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Infectious threats on the record.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-es-fig\" data-es-layout=\"dossier\"><div class=\"nx-hero-panel\"><div class=\"nx-register\"><div class=\"nx-register-head\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><strong>Dossier<\/strong><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Health Nexus \u00b7 topic<\/span><\/div><ol class=\"nx-register-rows\"><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-question\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">The question<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\">4 mechanisms<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-field\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Field<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\">hexagonal field plate<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-indicators\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Indicators<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">8<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-sources\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Sources<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">7<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-decisions\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Decision holders<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">4<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-sec-methods\"><span class=\"nx-register-n\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-k\">Methods<\/span><span class=\"nx-register-v\"><span class=\"nx-register-num\">6<\/span><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-question\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">The question<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-2\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Infectious threats: how the risk develops.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Outbreak readiness, surveillance and uncertainty. The dossier below sets out how the risk develops, what is measured, where the data come from, how it is modelled and who decides.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-cells\" data-cols=\"2\"><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M5 22h14\"\/><path d=\"M5 2h14\"\/><path d=\"M17 22v-4.172a2 2 0 0 0-.586-1.414L12 12l-4.414 4.414A2 2 0 0 0 7 17.828V22\"\/><path d=\"M7 2v4.172a2 2 0 0 0 .586 1.414L12 12l4.414-4.414A2 2 0 0 0 17 6.172V2\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Detection lags transmission<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Cases appear in surveillance only after infection, symptoms, care-seeking, testing and reporting. Each step adds delay and loses cases, so early counts describe the past and undercount the present.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><rect x=\"16\" y=\"16\" width=\"6\" height=\"6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect x=\"2\" y=\"16\" width=\"6\" height=\"6\" rx=\"1\"\/><rect x=\"9\" y=\"2\" width=\"6\" height=\"6\" rx=\"1\"\/><path d=\"M5 16v-3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h12a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v3\"\/><path d=\"M12 12V8\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Contact and immunity shape spread<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Spread depends on the pathogen&#8217;s transmissibility, the timing of infectiousness, population immunity and contact patterns. Mobility, crowding and mass gatherings connect local chains of transmission into regional and international ones.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M6 18h8\"\/><path d=\"M3 22h18\"\/><path d=\"M14 22a7 7 0 1 0 0-14h-1\"\/><path d=\"M9 14h2\"\/><path d=\"M9 12a2 2 0 0 1-2-2V6h6v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2Z\"\/><path d=\"M12 6V3a1 1 0 0 0-1-1H9a1 1 0 0 0-1 1v3\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Pathogens evolve under pressure<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Variants with altered transmissibility, severity or immune escape arise and are selected. Genomic surveillance detects them, but only where sequencing capacity exists and samples and data are shared promptly.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nx-glyph-row\"><span class=\"nx-glyph\" data-tone=\"accent\"><svg class=\"nx-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"4.5\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"m10.2 6.3-3.9 3.9\"\/><circle cx=\"4.5\" cy=\"12\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"M7 12h10\"\/><circle cx=\"19.5\" cy=\"12\" r=\"2.5\"\/><path d=\"m13.8 17.7 3.9-3.9\"\/><circle cx=\"12\" cy=\"19.5\" r=\"2.5\"\/><\/svg><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanism<\/span><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Outbreaks cascade into other systems<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Surges strain hospitals and staff, travel and trade restrictions disrupt supply chains, and absenteeism reaches food, energy and transport. Public trust and the quality of information shape behaviour, and so the course of the outbreak itself.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-field\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Geography<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-3\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Environmental exposure in Africa.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Population density, daytime surface heat and haze over Africa, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-canvas-wrap\"><div class=\"nx-cmap-field\" data-nx-map=\"ctx-field\" data-cmap=\"africa:health\" data-ml-feeds=\"eonet|https:\/\/eonet.gsfc.nasa.gov\/api\/v3\/events\" data-ml-src=\"health\" data-ml-plan=\"p-ed15195f\" data-ml-view=\"2d\" data-ml-ctx=\"theme:health\" data-ml-list=\"gibs.health.people gibs.health.lstd gibs.health.aod gibs.water.true gibs.health.no2 gibs.food.cover ev.eonet r.tropomi r.dist r.hls f.aq f.ens r.labels r.so2\" data-ml-tools=\"inspect measure aoi export\"><div class=\"nx-wm\" data-nx-water=\"ctx-health\" data-wm-domain=\"ctx-health\" data-wm-tiles=\"on\" data-wm-flat=\"on\" data-wm-focus=\"-19,-36,53,38\" data-ws-live=\"off\" data-claim=\"INTEGRATED\" data-wm-panel=\"closed\" data-wm-mode=\"2d\"><div class=\"nx-wm-stage\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"application\" aria-roledescription=\"interactive map\" aria-label=\"Environmental exposure, Africa: satellite and model layers from NASA on a 3D terrain of ASTER GDEM elevation. Arrow keys move; with Shift they turn and tilt in 3D; plus and minus zoom, 0 resets; I inspects, question mark lists the keys.\" aria-describedby=\"nx-wm-help\"><canvas class=\"nx-wm-canvas\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/canvas><p class=\"nx-wm-noscript\">The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.<\/p><div class=\"nx-wm-presets\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Quick views\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"people||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Population<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"lstd||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Surface heat<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"aod||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Haze<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-preset\" data-wm-preset=\"true||||\" aria-pressed=\"false\">True colour<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-panel\" id=\"nx-wm-panel\" role=\"region\" aria-label=\"Map layers\"><div class=\"nx-wm-panel-head\"><p class=\"nx-wm-panel-title\">Layers <span class=\"nx-wm-count\">3<\/span><\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon nx-wm-panel-close\" data-wm-act=\"panel\" aria-label=\"Close the layer list\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3.5 3.5l9 9M12.5 3.5l-9 9\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-panel-body\"><div class=\"nx-wm-group\"><p class=\"nx-wm-group-title\">Environmental exposure, for this page<\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"people\" aria-pressed=\"true\" data-wm-z=\"20\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.8\" data-wm-short=\"Population density\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)\" data-wm-kind=\"Census-based estimate, static (2020)\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Population density, 2020<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University) Gridded Population of the World v4.11 \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"people\">static<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"estimated\" data-wm-lic=\"CC BY 4.0\" data-wm-unit=\"people\/km\u00b2\">Estimated<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"people\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.health.people\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Estimated<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University))<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA SEDAC (CIESIN, Columbia University)<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">CC BY 4.0<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>null; Census-based estimate, static (2020)<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 1 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Census-based estimate of people per square kilometre in 2020, shown as exposure context; not a count of people affected by any hazard.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"lstd\" aria-pressed=\"true\" data-wm-z=\"21\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.8\" data-wm-short=\"Land temperature, day\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LANCE\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LANCE VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"lstd\">14 Sep 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"\u00b0C\">Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"lstd\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.health.lstd\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (persistent cloud still leaves gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day (NASA LANCE)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LANCE<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>8-day; Satellite 8-day composite; persistent cloud still leaves gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-09-14<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 1 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite skin temperature of the ground over the 8 days ending on the date shown, a heat exposure indicator; not air temperature, heat index or a heat warning.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"aod\" aria-pressed=\"true\" data-wm-z=\"22\" data-wm-lag=\"1\" data-wm-op=\"0.8\" data-wm-short=\"Haze (aerosol)\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LANCE\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Aerosol optical depth, daily<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LANCE VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"aod\">13 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"AOD\">Observed (clouds leave gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"aod\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.health.aod\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (clouds leave gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD (NASA LANCE)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LANCE<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-14<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 2 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite measure of haze, smoke and dust through the whole air column on the day shown; an exposure indicator, not ground-level PM2.5, an air quality index or a health warning.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"true\" aria-pressed=\"false\" data-wm-z=\"4\" data-wm-lag=\"1\" data-wm-op=\"0.6\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LANCE\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite image\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">True colour<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LANCE VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"true\">13 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\">Observed<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"true\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.water.true\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance (NASA LANCE)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LANCE<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite image<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-14<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 250 m grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite image. Satellite or model raster as the provider publishes it. Clouds, swath gaps and retrieval error leave gaps and noise; values are indicators, not measurements at a place.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"no2\" aria-pressed=\"false\" data-wm-z=\"24\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-op=\"0.8\" data-wm-short=\"Nitrogen dioxide\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA GES DISC\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Nitrogen dioxide, lower atmosphere column<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA GES DISC OMI Aura \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"no2\">10 Oct 2026<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"observed\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"10\u00b9\u2075 molecules\/cm\u00b2\">Observed (clouds leave gaps)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"no2\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.health.no2\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Observed (clouds leave gaps)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>OMI Aura (NASA GES DISC)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA GES DISC<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>daily; Satellite retrieval; clouds leave gaps<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2026-10-10<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 2 km grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite column of nitrogen dioxide in the lower atmosphere on the day shown, mostly from combustion; not a ground-level concentration or a health warning.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-layer\" data-wm-toggle=\"cover\" aria-pressed=\"false\" data-wm-z=\"25\" data-wm-lag=\"0\" data-wm-time=\"latest\" data-wm-op=\"0.7\" data-wm-short=\"Land cover\" data-wm-prov=\"NASA LP DAAC\" data-wm-kind=\"Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes\"><span class=\"nx-wm-check\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-text\"><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-name\">Land cover type (IGBP), yearly<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\">NASA LP DAAC MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"cover\">2024<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-layer-src\" data-wm-ep=\"modelled\" data-wm-lic=\"NASA open data\" data-wm-unit=\"class\">Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)<\/span><\/span><\/button><div class=\"nx-wm-tools\" data-wm-tools=\"cover\" hidden><\/div><details class=\"nx-wm-prov\" data-wm-prov-for=\"gibs.food.cover\"><summary>About this layer<\/summary><dl class=\"nx-wm-prov-list\"><dt>Evidence<\/dt><dd>Modelled (latest year GIBS publishes)<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1) (NASA LP DAAC)<\/dd><dt>Provider<\/dt><dd>NASA LP DAAC<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener noreferrer\">NASA open data<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vintage<\/dt><dd>yearly; Satellite classification; latest year GIBS publishes<\/dd><dt>Newest at build<\/dt><dd>2024-01-01<\/dd><dt>Resolution<\/dt><dd>about 500 m grid<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>Satellite land cover classes for the year shown, including croplands; a classification with known errors, not a farm register.<\/dd><dt>Reached through<\/dt><dd>gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov, only after you allow the live map<\/dd><\/dl><\/details><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-rail\" role=\"toolbar\" aria-orientation=\"vertical\" aria-label=\"Map controls\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon nx-wm-open\" data-wm-act=\"panel\" 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hidden><\/p><div class=\"nx-wm-tip\" role=\"tooltip\" hidden><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-pin\" hidden><div class=\"nx-wm-pin-head\"><p class=\"nx-wm-pin-title\"><\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-act=\"unpin\" aria-label=\"Close the card\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M3.5 3.5l9 9M12.5 3.5l-9 9\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"\/><\/svg><\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-pin-chart\"><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-pin-body\"><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-dock\"><div class=\"nx-wm-time\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Imagery date\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-step=\"prev\" aria-label=\"One day earlier\">\u2039<\/button><p class=\"nx-wm-time-label\">Latest available<\/p><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-icon\" data-wm-step=\"next\" aria-label=\"One day later\">\u203a<\/button><span class=\"nx-wm-track\" role=\"slider\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Imagery date, up to 30 days back\" aria-valuemin=\"0\" aria-valuemax=\"30\" aria-valuenow=\"30\" aria-valuetext=\"Latest available\"><\/span><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-wm-latest\" data-wm-step=\"latest\" aria-pressed=\"true\">Latest<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-wm-chips\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Legends\"><\/div><p class=\"nx-wm-attrib\">NASA GIBS \/ EOSDIS \u00b7 ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) \u00b7 Blue Marble (NASA) \u00b7 \u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) \u00b7 Natural Earth<\/p><div class=\"nx-wm-legends\" aria-live=\"polite\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-container nx-wm-below\"><p class=\"nx-wm-status\" role=\"status\">Loading the latest NASA imagery.<\/p><p id=\"nx-wm-help\" class=\"nx-wm-help\">Drag to move. Ctrl or \u2318 and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.<\/p><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>Environmental exposure, framed on Africa.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.<\/span><\/p><details class=\"nx-wm-credits\"><summary><span class=\"nx-wm-credits-line\">Data: NASA GIBS \u00b7 ASTER GDEM \u00b7 Blue Marble \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.openstreetmap.org\/copyright\" rel=\"noopener\">\u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors<\/a> \u00b7 Natural Earth \u00b7 NASA EONET \u00b7 ESA Copernicus Sentinel-5P TROPOMI \u00b7 NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT<\/span><span class=\"nx-wm-credits-more\">Sources and licences<\/span><\/summary><p class=\"nx-wm-credit\"><ul class=\"nx-wm-credit-list\"><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gibs.field-layers\">We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gibs.water-layers\">We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"sedac.gpw-v4\">Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.7927\/H49C6VHW\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.7927\/H49C6VHW<\/a>. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.lance.viirs-water\">VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.modis-viirs.atmosphere\">MODIS and VIIRS atmosphere products, NASA LANCE and LAADS DAAC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gesdisc.aura-omi-omps\">OMI nitrogen dioxide (Aura) and OMPS aerosol index (Suomi NPP), NASA; distributed by the NASA GES DISC; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.modis-viirs.land\">MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa-meti.aster-gdem-v3\">ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA\/METI\/AIST\/Japan Spacesystems and U.S.\/Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5067\/ASTER\/ASTGTM.003\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5067\/ASTER\/ASTGTM.003<\/a>. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"naturalearth.all-scales\">Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.naturalearthdata.com\/about\/terms-of-use\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Public domain<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.gibs.reference-osm\">\u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.openstreetmap.org\/copyright\" rel=\"noopener\">ODbL<\/a><\/li><li data-wm-credit=\"nasa.earth-observatory.blue-marble\">Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.earthdata.nasa.gov\/engage\/open-data-services-software-policies\" rel=\"noopener\">NASA open data<\/a><\/li><li>Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, \u00a9 OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.<\/li><li><\/li><li>Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.<\/li><li>Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.<\/li><li>Observed (EO): ESA Copernicus Sentinel-5P TROPOMI (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).<\/li><li>Observed (EO): NASA JPL OPERA DIST-ALERT (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).<\/li><li>NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA&#8217;s Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA&#8217;s Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).<\/li><li>Air quality forecast, 5 days, PM2.5 (CAMS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Atmosphere Monitoring Service information 2026.<\/li><li>Past year, daily temperature (ERA5 via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Climate Change Service information 2026.<\/li><li>Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https:\/\/open-meteo.com\/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/).<\/li><li>Optional layers (14 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nx-wm-credit\"><strong>Layers and dates<\/strong><\/p><ul class=\"nx-wm-credit-list\"><li>Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"people\">static<\/span><\/li><li>Land surface temperature, day, 8-day composite: VIIRS NOAA-20 Level 3, 8-day, NASA LANCE \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"lstd\">14 Sep 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Aerosol optical depth, daily: VIIRS NOAA-20 Deep Blue AOD, NASA LANCE \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"aod\">13 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><li>True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"true\">13 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Nitrogen dioxide, lower atmosphere column: OMI Aura, NASA GES DISC \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"no2\">10 Oct 2026<\/span><\/li><li>Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC \u00b7 <span data-wm-date=\"cover\">2024<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/p><\/details><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot nx-live-slot--map\" data-nxf-slot=\"map\" data-nxf-kind=\"map\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/G04\/topics\/infectious-threats\/#map\" data-nxf-title=\"Health Nexus live map\" data-nxf-height=\"560\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-1\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-label=\"Couplings, Monitor, Reports, standards and contributions, Simulator\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Couplings, Monitor, Reports, standards and contributions, Simulator\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-pg-couplings\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Couplings<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-s-5-sec\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Monitor<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-pg-reports-standards\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Reports, standards and contributions<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-1-tab-4\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-instrument\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p4\">Simulator<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-pg-couplings\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-4\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Couplings<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-4\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How epidemics travel through water, food, energy and nature.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th>Domain<\/th><th>How it couples here<\/th><th>What to watch<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\">Water<\/td><td data-label=\"How it couples here\">Cholera and other waterborne diseases follow failures of water and sanitation. See <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/topics\/drinking-water-and-sanitation\/\">drinking water and sanitation<\/a>.<\/td><td data-label=\"What to watch\">Outbreaks after floods and supply failures<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\">Food<\/td><td data-label=\"How it couples here\">Food-borne outbreaks follow cold chain and hygiene failures; lockdowns disrupt food access.<\/td><td data-label=\"What to watch\">Food-borne outbreak investigations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\">Energy<\/td><td data-label=\"How it couples here\">Vaccine cold chains and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h61\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.cascade.health-system-overload\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Cascading failure\" data-td=\"Demand for care exceeding capacity, from a surge of cases or injuries or from loss of staff and supplies, so that avoidable deaths rise.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H61\" data-tr=\"draft\">hospital surge<\/a> capacity need reliable power.<\/td><td data-label=\"What to watch\">Cold chain equipment functionality<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\">Biodiversity<\/td><td data-label=\"How it couples here\">Vector ranges shift with climate and land use. See <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/biodiversity-nexus\/topics\/ecosystem-integrity\/\">ecosystem integrity<\/a>.<\/td><td data-label=\"What to watch\">Vector surveillance at range margins<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-p\">The legal frame changed in 2024 and 2025. Amendments to the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/international-health-regulations-alignment\/\">International Health Regulations<\/a> adopted by the World Health Assembly in June 2024, in force from September 2025, introduced a pandemic emergency alert level. The WHO Pandemic Agreement was adopted in May 2025; its annex on pathogen access and benefit-sharing is under negotiation and the agreement opens for signature only after that annex is adopted.<\/p><p class=\"nx-p\">Transmission is described by the basic and effective reproduction numbers (dimensionless), the serial interval in days and the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 case-fatality-ratio\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The proportion of identified cases of a disease that die from it, which depends strongly on how many cases are detected.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">case fatality ratio<\/a>, each estimated with uncertainty that is largest early in an outbreak.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-5-sec\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-5\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Monitor<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-5\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Surveillance and capacity board.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><figure class=\"nx-fk nx-cx\" data-fk=\"cx-health-surveillance\" data-cx=\"health.surveillance\" data-variant=\"section\" aria-label=\"Surveillance and capacity board: illustrative console with example names and values\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><figcaption class=\"nx-fk-cap\"><span>Surveillance and capacity board: the screen&#8217;s structure, terms and states for Infectious threats.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Example names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-pg-reports-standards\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-6\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports, standards and contributions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-6\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Infectious threat evidence and its boundaries.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><p class=\"nx-p\">Preparedness and modelling studies are designed for the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/series\/scenario-stress-test\/\">Scenario and Stress-Test series<\/a>. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) declares no emergency and issues no health advice; WHO and national public health authorities hold those mandates. Epidemic models would carry NS-12 cards under the proposed <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/ecosystem\/standards\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a>. Useful contributions: retrospective model evaluations and preparedness exercise records.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-instrument\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" data-ns-layout=\"es-wide\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-7\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-1-tab-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">07<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Simulator<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-7\" class=\"nx-section-title\">SEIR on a network of places.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">An outbreak seeded in one place spreads through a small-world network by the share of contacts people make elsewhere; play it to see the order of arrival and how the timing of measures moves the peak. Teaching model with stated illustrative values, not a prediction. The map on this page shows Africa; the model itself is not tied to a place.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><figure class=\"nx-in nx-fk\" id=\"nx-in-health-nexus-topics-infectious-threats-0\" data-nxi=\"seir\" data-nxi-id=\"seir\" data-nxi-z=\"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\" aria-label=\"SEIR on a network of places\"><div class=\"nx-in-body\"><div class=\"nx-in-main\"><div class=\"nx-in-tabs\" data-nxi-tabs=\"true\" aria-label=\"Views of the model\" hidden><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"result\">Result<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"net\">Network<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"fan\">Uncertainty<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"tornado\">Sensitivity<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-tab\" data-nxi-view=\"loops\">Loops<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-in-stage\" id=\"nx-in-health-nexus-topics-infectious-threats-0-stage\" data-nxi-stage=\"true\" data-view=\"result\"><svg class=\"nx-in-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 720 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Epidemic curve\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><\/div><p class=\"nx-in-tip\" data-nxi-tip=\"true\" aria-live=\"polite\"><\/p><div class=\"nx-in-bar\" data-nxi-bar=\"true\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Play over time\" hidden><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-prev=\"true\" aria-label=\"Step back\">&#8249;<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-play=\"true\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Play<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-next=\"true\" aria-label=\"Step forward\">&#8250;<\/button><span class=\"nx-in-step\" data-nxi-step=\"true\" aria-live=\"polite\"><\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-in-side\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Controls<\/p><div class=\"nx-in-ctl\" data-nxi-ctl=\"true\"><dl class=\"nx-in-pv\"><div><dt>Basic reproduction number R0<\/dt><dd>2.5<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Latent period<\/dt><dd>3.0 days<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Infectious period<\/dt><dd>5.0 days<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Share of contacts made in other places<\/dt><dd>8%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Places in the network<\/dt><dd>24<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Measures start on day<\/dt><dd>40<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Contact reduction from measures<\/dt><dd>40%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Days simulated<\/dt><dd>240 days<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Readouts<\/p><dl class=\"nx-in-out\" data-nxi-out=\"true\" aria-live=\"polite\"><div><dt>Peak new infections<\/dt><dd>6.20 per 1,000 a day<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Day of the peak<\/dt><dd>158<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Share ever infected<\/dt><dd>58%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Places reached<\/dt><dd>100%<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Reproduction number under measures<\/dt><dd>1.50<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><\/div><details class=\"nx-in-more\"><summary>Numbers, methods and sources<\/summary><div class=\"nx-in-more-in\"><div class=\"nx-in-tblw\" data-nxi-table=\"true\"><table class=\"nx-in-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Day<\/th><th scope=\"col\">New infections per 1,000<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cumulative infected (%)<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">0<\/th><td>0.00<\/td><td>0.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">17<\/th><td>0.02<\/td><td>0.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">34<\/th><td>0.16<\/td><td>0.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">51<\/th><td>0.47<\/td><td>0.7<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">68<\/th><td>0.85<\/td><td>1.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">85<\/th><td>1.44<\/td><td>3.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">102<\/th><td>2.39<\/td><td>7.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">119<\/th><td>3.70<\/td><td>12.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">136<\/th><td>5.13<\/td><td>19.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">153<\/th><td>6.13<\/td><td>29.6<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">170<\/th><td>5.82<\/td><td>39.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">187<\/th><td>4.15<\/td><td>48.4<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">204<\/th><td>2.29<\/td><td>53.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">221<\/th><td>1.07<\/td><td>56.5<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">238<\/th><td>0.46<\/td><td>57.7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-in-btn\" data-nxi-csv=\"true\" hidden>Download the numbers (CSV)<\/button><h4 class=\"nx-h4\">Methods<\/h4><ol class=\"nx-in-meth\"><li>SEIR compartments <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Kermack and McKendrick (1927), Proc. R. Soc. A 115<\/span><\/li><li>Metapopulation coupling by mobility <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Balcan and others (2009), PNAS 106<\/span><\/li><li>Small-world network <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Watts and Strogatz (1998), Nature 393<\/span><\/li><li>Modelling infectious diseases <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Keeling and Rohani (2008), Princeton University Press<\/span><\/li><li>Uncertainty fan (parameter Monte Carlo) <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Spiegelhalter, Pearson and Short (2011), Visualising uncertainty about the future, Science 333<\/span><\/li><li>One-at-a-time sensitivity (tornado) <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Saltelli and others (2008), Global Sensitivity Analysis: The Primer, Wiley<\/span><\/li><\/ol><h4 class=\"nx-h4\">Data<\/h4><p class=\"nx-p\">The model runs on the teaching values set by the controls. To calibrate it for a place, read it against these admitted layers and series, which this page&#8217;s map can draw:<\/p><ul class=\"nx-in-src\"><li>Cities <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Natural Earth<\/span><\/li><li>Airports <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Natural Earth<\/span><\/li><li>Major roads <span class=\"nx-in-cite\">Natural Earth<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/details><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\">SEIR on a network of places. Illustrative teaching model: it runs on the values set by the controls, not on measured data. Methods: SEIR compartments (Kermack and McKendrick (1927), Proc. R. Soc. A 115); Metapopulation coupling by mobility (Balcan and others (2009), PNAS 106); Small-world network (Watts and Strogatz (1998), Nature 393).<\/figcaption><div class=\"nx-in-pls\"><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Across the six pillars, led by Nexus Consortium<\/p><ul class=\"nx-in-pl\" aria-label=\"Where this instrument connects across the pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Experiments<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Built in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/foundry\/\">Health Nexus in Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Tested at<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/universe\/\">Health Nexus in Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Codified in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/\">Health and Biosecurity in Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Published in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/reports\/\">Health Nexus in Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-in-plv\">Taught in<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/health-society\/\">Faculty of Health and Society in Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><span class=\"nx-in-keep\" hidden><i data-c=\"c1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c4\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"c6\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l1\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l2\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"l5\"><\/i><i data-c=\"h3\"><\/i><i data-c=\"neg\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on0\"><\/i><i data-c=\"on1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"0\"><\/i><i data-l=\"1\"><\/i><i data-l=\"2\"><\/i><i data-l=\"3\"><\/i><i data-l=\"4\"><\/i><i data-l=\"5\"><\/i><i data-on=\"0\"><\/i><i data-on=\"1\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"p\"><\/i><i data-pol=\"n\"><\/i><i data-k=\"R\"><\/i><i data-k=\"B\"><\/i><i data-k=\"dash\"><\/i><i data-dash=\"true\"><\/i><i data-view=\"result\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"on\"><\/i><i data-nxi-live=\"off\"><\/i><i class=\"nx-in-svg nx-in-grid nx-in-ax nx-in-tk nx-in-at nx-in-ln nx-in-band nx-in-lbl nx-in-lk nx-in-ref nx-in-reft nx-in-mk nx-in-x nx-in-rect nx-in-val nx-in-rowl nx-in-cl nx-in-arrow nx-in-pol nx-in-cln nx-in-loop nx-in-edge nx-in-node nx-in-nl nx-in-reach nx-in-trib nx-in-agent nx-in-flow nx-in-legend nx-in-sw nx-in-note nx-in-loops nx-in-3d nx-in-cv nx-in-field nx-in-fl nx-in-fv nx-in-range nx-in-btn nx-in-err nx-in-tbl nx-in-cite\"><\/i><\/span><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-2\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-label=\"Indicators, Twin and cascade simulator, Sources, Methods and evidence\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Indicators, Twin and cascade simulator, Sources, Methods and evidence\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-indicators\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Indicators<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-twin\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Twin and cascade simulator<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-sources\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Sources<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-2-tab-4\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-audience\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p4\">Methods and evidence<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-indicators\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-8\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">08<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Indicators<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-8\" class=\"nx-section-title\">What is measured, and how well.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Each indicator carries its unit, its cadence, the kind of source behind it and the evidence label a value would carry. No values are shown: a programme supplies them under its own authority.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Notified cases by date of onset<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">cases<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">daily or weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Indicator-based surveillance<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Time-varying <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 reproduction-number\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The average number of new infections caused by one infectious case in a population; when it stays above one, spread grows.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">reproduction number<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">dimensionless<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Transmission models on onset and case data<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">ESTIMATED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Test positivity<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">percent of tests positive<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Laboratory reporting<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">OBSERVED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Sequencing coverage<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">percent of confirmed cases sequenced<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Genomic surveillance and public repositories<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">OBSERVED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Timeliness of detection, notification and response<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">days between emergence, detection, notification and response<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">per event<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Event records against national timeliness targets<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Influenza-like illness and severe acute respiratory infection<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">consultations or admissions per hundred thousand population<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Sentinel surveillance in GISRS<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">OBSERVED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Case fatality risk<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">percent of confirmed cases with known outcome<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">per event<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Line lists with outcome follow-up<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">ESTIMATED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\"><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 excess-mortality\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Deaths above the number expected in the absence of a crisis, capturing both direct and indirect effects of a shock.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Excess mortality<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">deaths above expected<\/td><td data-label=\"Cadence\">weekly or monthly<\/td><td data-label=\"Source type\">Vital registration against modelled baselines<\/td><td data-label=\"Label\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">ESTIMATED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"indicators\" data-nxf-kind=\"indicator\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/G04\/topics\/infectious-threats\/#indicators\" data-nxf-title=\"Indicators\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-twin\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" data-span=\"wide\" data-ns-layout=\"twin\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-9\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">09<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Twin and cascade simulator<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-9\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Model infectious threats as a system. Run the cascade.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Assembled from the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> area profile <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/health-security-and-one-health\/\">Health security and One Health<\/a>: the hazards it names, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/system-builder\/\">System Builder<\/a>.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-ns-twin\" data-ns-data=\"nx-twin-es-topics-infectious-threats-G04\" data-ns-credits=\"Nexus Standards registry and area profiles; Nexus Hazard Standard NHS-1 1.1.0\"><div class=\"nx-ns-twin-static\"><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Hazards<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h45\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.systemic-bio.antimicrobial-resistance\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Systemic biological risks\" data-td=\"Spread of microbes that no longer respond to medicines, making routine infections and surgery dangerous.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H45\" data-tr=\"draft\">Antimicrobial resistance<\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h35\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.respiratory.tuberculosis-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Airborne and respiratory infection\" data-td=\"Rising or drug-resistant tuberculosis, a slowly spreading airborne bacterial disease, often in crowded or poor settings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H35\" data-tr=\"draft\">Tuberculosis surge<\/a> (set off downstream)<\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h37\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.enteric.enteric-fever\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Faecal-oral and foodborne infection\" data-td=\"Systemic Salmonella infection from contaminated food and water, endemic where sanitation is poor.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H37\" data-tr=\"draft\">Typhoid and paratyphoid fever<\/a> (set off downstream)<\/li><li>Health-system overload (set off downstream)<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Systems and couplings<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/health-security-and-one-health\/\">Health security and One Health<\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/biological-hazard-standards\/\">Biological hazard standards<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Mechanism<\/span><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/biodiversity-risk-standards\/\">Biodiversity and nature risk standards<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Common driver<\/span><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/water-food\/food-risk-standards\/\">Food and agriculture risk standards<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Mechanism<\/span><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/systemic-risk\/global-and-systemic-risk\/\">Global and systemic risk<\/a> <span class=\"nx-ns-sub\">Cascade<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Controls<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li><code>NS-0<\/code> Constitution and principles<\/li><li><code>NS-3<\/code> Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)<\/li><li><code>NS-9<\/code> Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)<\/li><li><code>NS-10<\/code> Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)<\/li><li><code>NS-11<\/code> Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)<\/li><li><code>NRS-H83<\/code> Hazard family: Health system capacity failure (NHS-1 health.system)<\/li><li><code>NRS-H42<\/code> Hazard family: Rare and persistent human infections (NHS-1 health.other-human)<\/li><li><code>NRS-H41<\/code> Hazard family: Animal-to-human spillover (NHS-1 health.zoonotic)<\/li><li><code>NRS-H43<\/code> Hazard family: Livestock and aquaculture epizootics (NHS-1 health.animal-health)<\/li><li><code>NRS-D3<\/code> Humanitarian response and resilient recovery<\/li><li><code>NRS-H46<\/code> Hazard family: Environmental and product harm to people (NHS-1 health.harm)<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Observation<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>WHO Disease Outbreak News (listed for reference)<\/li><li>WAHIS animal health events (listed for reference)<\/li><li>WorldPop gridded population (listed for reference)<\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/international-health-regulations-alignment\/\">International Health Regulations<\/a> capacity and health emergency preparedness<\/li><li>Percentage of bloodstream infections due to selected antimicrobial-resistant organisms<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Example geography<\/p><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>West Africa: 59 hexagonal cells<\/li><li>Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day\/Night Band), NASA GIBS<\/li><li>Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS<\/li><li>Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-sources\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-10\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">10<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Sources<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-10\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Where the evidence comes from.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Named public datasets and institutional records, each with its licence class. Sources by agreement are used only under their terms and never republished.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it gives<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">WHO Disease Outbreak News<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Public reports on acute public health events<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Public records, WHO terms of use<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">WHO GISRS: FluNet and FluID<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Virological and epidemiological influenza surveillance from national influenza centres<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Open, attribution, WHO terms of use<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">GISAID<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Influenza and coronavirus genomes with sampling metadata<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Registered access under the GISAID database access agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">INSDC sequence archives and Nextstrain<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Open pathogen sequences and phylogenetic analyses<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Free and unrestricted; open, attribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">ECDC Surveillance Atlas and Africa CDC epidemic intelligence reports<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Regional surveillance data and weekly event reports<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Open, attribution, terms per agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">ProMED and HealthMap<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">Event-based signals from media, professional networks and informal reports<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Terms per service<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">Global.health<\/td><td data-label=\"What it gives\">De-identified case line lists for selected outbreaks<\/td><td data-label=\"Licence class\">Open, attribution (CC BY 4.0)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"evidence\" data-nxf-kind=\"evidence\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/G04\/topics\/infectious-threats\/#evidence\" data-nxf-title=\"Sources\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-audience\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-11\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-2-tab-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">11<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Methods and evidence<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-11\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How infectious threats is modelled, measured and tested.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-au\" data-au-voice=\"science\" data-au-n=\"1\"><figure class=\"nx-au-c\" data-au-fig=\"system-model\"><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">System model<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-au-what\">The couplings between the systems in infectious threats: signs of influence, a reinforcing and a balancing loop, and cross-links where stress jumps.<\/p><div class=\"nx-au-fig\"><svg class=\"nx-au-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 560 250\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Causal loop diagram of Health, Communities, Economy\" focusable=\"false\"><line class=\"nx-au-ac\" x1=\"280\" y1=\"32\" x2=\"387.99\" y2=\"161\"\/><text class=\"nx-au-t nx-au-sign\" x=\"334\" y=\"92.5\" text-anchor=\"middle\">+<\/text><line class=\"nx-au-ln\" x1=\"387.99\" y1=\"161\" x2=\"172.01\" y2=\"161\"\/><text class=\"nx-au-t nx-au-sign\" x=\"280\" y=\"157\" text-anchor=\"middle\">+<\/text><line class=\"nx-au-ln\" x1=\"172.01\" y1=\"161\" x2=\"280\" y2=\"32\"\/><text class=\"nx-au-t nx-au-sign\" x=\"226\" y=\"92.5\" text-anchor=\"middle\">\u2212<\/text><circle class=\"nx-au-nd nx-au-nd-ac\" cx=\"280.0\" cy=\"32.0\" r=\"6\"\/><text class=\"nx-au-t nx-au-lb\" x=\"280\" y=\"20\" text-anchor=\"middle\">Health<\/text><circle class=\"nx-au-nd nx-au-nd-ac\" cx=\"388.0\" cy=\"161.0\" r=\"6\"\/><text class=\"nx-au-t nx-au-lb\" x=\"399.99\" y=\"179\" text-anchor=\"start\">Communities<\/text><circle class=\"nx-au-nd\" cx=\"172.0\" cy=\"161.0\" r=\"6\"\/><text class=\"nx-au-t nx-au-lb\" x=\"160.01\" y=\"179\" text-anchor=\"end\">Economy<\/text><text class=\"nx-au-t nx-au-lb\" x=\"280\" y=\"114\" text-anchor=\"middle\">R  reinforcing<\/text><text class=\"nx-au-t\" x=\"280\" y=\"132\" text-anchor=\"middle\">B  balancing<\/text><\/svg><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\"><span>Causal loop diagram from the page&#8217;s systems; signs show the direction of influence. Illustrative structure for a system dynamics or network model, not estimated couplings.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-chips nx-au-fw\" aria-label=\"Frameworks cited\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">FAIR guiding principles \u00b7 GO FAIR and FORCE11<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">W3C PROV \u00b7 World Wide Web Consortium<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Guidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties \u00b7 IPCC<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">CEOS Analysis Ready Data \u00b7 Committee on Earth Observation Satellites<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-3\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-label=\"Decisions, Core questions, Mechanisms, Methods and data\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Decisions, Core questions, Mechanisms, Methods and data\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-decisions\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Decisions<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-core-questions\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Core questions<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-mechanisms\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Mechanisms<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-3-tab-4\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-methods-and-data\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p4\">Methods and data<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-decisions\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-12\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">12<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Decisions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-12\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Who decides, and what the evidence serves.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Health Nexus prepares evidence. The decisions below are taken by the authorities named, under their own rules, and never by the platform.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\" data-lv=\"ledger\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Who decides<\/th><th scope=\"col\">The question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence this page serves<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">National public health institutes<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Whether a signal is a true event, and what investigation and response it warrants<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Signal verification trail; line lists; nowcasts with their uncertainty<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">IHR National Focal Points<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Whether an event meets the criteria for notification to WHO under the IHR decision instrument<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Event assessments with the evidence for each criterion labelled<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Hospital <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">How much surge capacity to activate, and when<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Admission scenarios by region with confidence bands<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Who decides\">Ministries of health and cabinets<\/td><td data-label=\"The question\">Which public health and social measures to apply, adjust or lift, and for how long<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence this page serves\">Transmission estimates; evidence on the effects of measures with its limits; cascade scenarios<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-4\">Outputs this topic produces<\/h3><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Outbreak situation evidence with reporting delays and completeness stated<\/li><li>Nowcasts and short-term scenarios with their skill reported<\/li><li>Genomic context for emerging variants and lineages<\/li><li>Readiness evidence read against IHR core capacities<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-core-questions\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-13\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">13<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Core questions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-13\" class=\"nx-section-title\">What experts ask.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Most decisions about outbreaks are made before the facts are settled.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-list\"><li>Is an unusual signal a real outbreak, and how fast is it growing?<\/li><li>How transmissible and how severe is the pathogen, and for whom?<\/li><li>How much transmission occurs before symptoms appear?<\/li><li>What effect would testing, isolation, vaccination or other measures have, and at what social cost?<\/li><li>When does health-system demand exceed capacity?<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-mechanisms\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-14\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">14<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Mechanisms<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-14\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Mechanisms and drivers.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><p class=\"nx-p\">Transmission depends on the pathogen&#8217;s biology, contact patterns between people, immunity in the population and the environment. The <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 reproduction-number\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The average number of new infections caused by one infectious case in a population; when it stays above one, spread grows.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">reproduction number<\/a> summarises how many people each case infects on average; when it stays above one, case numbers grow. Mobility, crowding, seasonality and human behaviour change the reproduction number over time.<\/p><p class=\"nx-p\">Severity depends on age, underlying conditions, access to care and how stretched the health system is. A pathogen of moderate severity can still overwhelm hospitals if it spreads widely, which is why the indirect harm from disrupted services can rival the direct harm of the infection.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-methods-and-data\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-15\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-3-tab-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">15<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Methods and data<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-15\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How it is studied, and where the methods stop.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Method or data<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Limits<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Method or data\">Indicator and event-based surveillance<\/td><td data-label=\"What it shows\">Unusual clusters and trends from reports, laboratories and media<\/td><td data-label=\"Limits\">Reporting delays, under-ascertainment and changing testing practice<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Method or data\">Genomic surveillance<\/td><td data-label=\"What it shows\">Variants, transmission chains and introductions<\/td><td data-label=\"Limits\">Uneven sequencing capacity and sampling bias<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Method or data\">Compartmental and agent-based models<\/td><td data-label=\"What it shows\">Scenarios of spread and the effect of interventions<\/td><td data-label=\"Limits\">Highly sensitive to uncertain parameters early in an outbreak<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Method or data\">Nowcasting and short-term forecasting<\/td><td data-label=\"What it shows\">Current and near-future trends corrected for reporting delay<\/td><td data-label=\"Limits\">Reliable only over short horizons<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Method or data\">Serological surveys<\/td><td data-label=\"What it shows\">How many people have been infected<\/td><td data-label=\"Limits\">Antibody waning and test performance complicate interpretation<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-band=\"auto\" data-band-id=\"nx-band-4\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-label=\"Methods, Sources, Questions\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-hm-band nx-band\" data-nx-tabs=\"true\" data-active=\"p1\"><div class=\"nx-tablist nx-hm-tabs\" role=\"tablist\" aria-label=\"Methods, Sources, Questions\"><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-4-tab-1\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-methods\" aria-selected=\"true\" data-key=\"p1\">Methods<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-4-tab-2\" aria-controls=\"nx-sec-pg-sources\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p2\">Sources<\/button><button class=\"nx-tab\" type=\"button\" role=\"tab\" id=\"nx-band-4-tab-3\" aria-controls=\"nx-s-18-sec\" aria-selected=\"false\" data-key=\"p3\">Questions<\/button><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-methods\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-16\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-4-tab-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">16<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Methods<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-16\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How it is studied, and what the methods cannot say.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-methods\" data-limits=\"true\"><ol class=\"nx-mledger\" aria-label=\"Methods\"><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/stem\/epidemiology\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Epidemiology and public health science<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Surveillance design and evaluation \u00b7 Nowcasting under reporting delay<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/science\/epidemiology\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Epidemiology and public health science\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/stem\/probability-statistics\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Probability and statistics<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Survey-weighted and small-area estimation \u00b7 Expected baselines for excess mortality<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/probability-statistics\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Probability and statistics\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/stem\/life-sciences\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Molecular and life sciences<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Genomic surveillance of pathogens \u00b7 Cross-species linkage in One Health<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/science\/life-sciences\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Molecular and life sciences\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/stem\/complex-systems\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Complex systems and agent-based modelling<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Contact and mobility networks \u00b7 Cascades across health and infrastructure<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/complex-systems\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Complex systems and agent-based modelling\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/stem\/data-engineering\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Data engineering, interoperability and stewardship<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Linking health information systems \u00b7 Privacy-preserving publication<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/technology\/data-engineering\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Data engineering, interoperability and stewardship\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/stem\/causal-inference\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Causal inference and impact evaluation<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Evaluating public health measures \u00b7 Exposure-response for heat and air<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/causal-inference\/\" aria-label=\"Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons: Causal inference and impact evaluation\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><\/ol><aside class=\"nx-limits\" aria-label=\"What the methods cannot say\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">What the methods cannot say<\/span><p class=\"nx-limits-text\">Early in an outbreak, counts are small, delayed and biased toward severe cases, so estimates of severity and transmissibility change as data mature. Surveillance sees what is tested, and changes in testing change the counts. Genomic coverage is uneven between regions. Scenarios are conditional on assumptions and are not forecasts. Health Nexus does not verify events, declare emergencies or issue alerts; IHR National Focal Points, public health authorities and WHO do.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-pg-sources\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-17\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-4-tab-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">17<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Where this page&#8217;s references<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-17\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Where this page&#8217;s references lead.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-list\" data-nav=\"true\"><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/health-topics\/international-health-regulations\"><span>International Health Regulations (2005), amendments adopted by the World Health Assembly in 2024 and in force from September 2025 (WHO)<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/\"><span>WHO Pandemic Agreement, adopted by the World Health Assembly in May 2025, with the pathogen access and benefit-sharing annex under negotiation (WHO)<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/emergencies\/disease-outbreak-news\"><span>WHO Disease Outbreak News<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.who.int\/initiatives\/glass\"><span>WHO Global Antimicrobial Resistance and Use Surveillance System (GLASS)<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/ns-12\/\"><span>NS-12, Software, model and AI\/ML artefacts, a proposed standard<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-18-sec\" class=\"nx-section nx-band-panel\" data-hue=\"health\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-18\" role=\"tabpanel\" data-band-tab=\"nx-band-4-tab-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">18<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Questions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-18\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Questions and answers.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-faq\"><details><summary>Why do early outbreak numbers change so much?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Because reports arrive late, mild cases are missed and outcomes are not yet known. Estimates are revised as data mature, and nowcasting methods adjust for the delays that can be measured.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>What is the difference between a forecast and a scenario?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">A forecast states what is expected to happen with a probability and can be checked against what happens. A scenario explores what would follow from stated assumptions, such as a change in measures, and is not a prediction.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>What is a public health emergency of international concern?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Under the International Health Regulations, an extraordinary event that constitutes a public health risk to other states through international spread and may require a coordinated international response. The WHO Director-General determines it, after advice from an emergency committee.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Does Health Nexus issue outbreak alerts?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">No. Alerts and notifications come from national public health authorities, IHR National Focal Points and WHO. Health Nexus prepares evidence those bodies can examine under their own procedures.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Are outbreak models predictions?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Models are usually scenarios: they show what could happen under stated assumptions. Short-term forecasts are labelled as such and carry uncertainty ranges. Neither is a statement of what will happen.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Why do early estimates change so much?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Early data is sparse, delayed and biased towards severe cases. As testing expands and studies report, estimates of transmissibility and severity are revised, which is expected and should be communicated openly.<\/div><\/details><details><summary>Does Health Nexus publish outbreak alerts?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">No. Alerts and public health guidance come from competent health authorities. Health Nexus publishes reviewed research and methods.<\/div><\/details><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"health\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Contribute evidence from this page.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\"><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Health Nexus<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Global Sector Risk and Resilience<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Country Systems Risk and Resilience<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Evidence Brief<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/health-nexus\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. 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A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-sk-global-health-nexus-topics-infectious-threats-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-sk-global-health-nexus-topics-infectious-threats-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-sk-global-health-nexus-topics-infectious-threats-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/model\/scenarios\/pandemic\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Pandemic<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/health-society\/health-systems\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Health systems and health care resilience<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/health-risk-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Health risk standards<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-closing\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-close-19\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Health Nexus<\/span><h2 id=\"nx-close-19\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Bring a method, a dataset or a question.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Information and enquiries are open today. 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