Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

6 min read0 figures5 tables20 notesNR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1The world’s risk is entangled, not additive
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock
  8. 6Lenses and readings
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
    1. 8.1 Water, the global system chapter
    2. 8.2 Energy, the global system chapter
    3. 8.3 Food and agrifood, the global system chapter
    4. 8.4 Health and One Health, the global system chapter
    5. 8.5 Biodiversity and ecosystems, the global system chapter
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

8.1Water, the global system chapter

The global water system is defined by uneven access and rising extremes: billions still lack safely managed services while droughts and floods intensify. Agriculture is the dominant user, so water stress travels straight into food.

2.2billion

without safely managed drinking water, 20228

3.5billion

without safely managed sanitation, 20228

≈70%

of freshwater withdrawals go to agriculture38

Table 8.1State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Accessservice gaps concentrated in low-income and fragile settings8Reported
Useagriculture dominates withdrawals; industry and cities follow38Reported
Extremesmore intense droughts and floods with warming15Reported
Groundwaterdepletion in major irrigated regions; poorly monitored38Inferred
Transboundaryshared basins and aquifers couple neighbouring states38Inferred

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO irrigation and rain-fed yields
  • WAT → ENE hydro and thermal cooling
  • WAT → HLT safe water and sanitation
  • BIO → WAT regulation by forests and wetlands

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • basin-scale stress at regional resolution
  • groundwater levels and recharge
  • water use of data centres and cooling

8.2Energy, the global system chapter

Clean power is growing fast, yet emissions set a record in 2024 as demand rose for cooling, industry and compute. The transition couples energy to minerals and water in new ways.

37.8Gt CO₂

energy-related emissions, 20244

≈41%

of electricity from low-carbon sources, 20246

≈415TWh

used by data centres, 20245

Table 8.2State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Emissionsrecord energy CO₂ in 2024, up 0.8% on 20234Reported
Clean powerrenewables and nuclear supplied about 41% of electricity6Reported
Demandcooling, electrification and data centres drive growth45Reported
Mineralsrefining of key minerals highly concentrated36Reported
Accesshundreds of millions still lack electricity4Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → ENE hydro and cooling water
  • ENE → FOO fuel, fertiliser and cold chain
  • ENE → HLT air pollution and cooling
  • MIN → ENE transition supply chains

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • data-centre load and water use by region
  • heat-driven peak demand
  • mineral supply diversification

8.3Food and agrifood, the global system chapter

Hunger fell slightly in 2024 but remains above pre-2019 levels, and production and trade are concentrated in a few breadbaskets. Food is where water, energy and climate risks meet most households.

673million

people facing hunger, 20247

2.3billion

moderately or severely food insecure, 20247

8.2%

of the world population hungry, 20247

Table 8.3State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Hungerabout 673 million people; rising in parts of Africa7Reported
Productionconcentrated in a few exporting breadbaskets23Reported
Inputsfertiliser and fuel tie food to energy prices4Inferred
Tradeexport restrictions amplify price shocks23Inferred
Concurrencyrisk of several breadbaskets failing together rises with warming23Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • WAT → FOO irrigation and rain-fed yields
  • ENE → FOO inputs and cold chain
  • FOO → TRD price transmission
  • FOO → BIO land conversion

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • concurrent breadbasket risk at 1.5–2 °C
  • stocks and reserves by region
  • household food access in import-dependent countries

8.4Health and One Health, the global system chapter

Health is an active system, not only an outcome. Air pollution and heat are the leading environmental burdens, and a new pandemic agreement opens a decade of implementation.

6.7million

deaths a year from air pollution14

+167%

heat deaths among over-65s against the 1990s26

2025agreement

WHO Pandemic Agreement adopted27

Table 8.4State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Air pollutionabout 6.7 million deaths a year14Reported
Heatheat deaths of people over 65 up 167% on the 1990s26Reported
Pandemicsagreement adopted 2025; IHR amended 20242728Reported
One Healthzoonotic spillover linked to land-use change16Inferred
Surge capacityworkforce shortages widely reported; not consolidated,Expert input

Couplings into other systems

  • CLI → HLT heat mortality and labour loss
  • ENE → HLT air pollution
  • BIO → HLT zoonoses and medicines
  • FOO → HLT nutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • heat mortality outside high-income regions
  • health workforce surge depth
  • implementation of the pandemic agreement

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the global system chapter

Nature underpins water, food and health, and it is declining. Protection is growing but remains well short of the 2030 targets, especially at sea.

−73%

average change in wildlife populations, 1970–20209

17.6%

of land protected, 202410

8.4%

of the ocean protected, 202410

Table 8.5State at baseline
ComponentStateEvidenceStatus
Populationsaverage decline of 73% in monitored wildlife populations9Reported
Protection17.6% of land and 8.4% of the ocean, against 30% by 20301030Reported
Boundariesbiosphere integrity among six transgressed boundaries20Reported
Driversland-use change, exploitation, climate, pollution, invasive species17Reported
Tippingwarm-water coral reefs at risk at current warming21Reported

Couplings into other systems

  • BIO → WAT regulation and filtration
  • BIO → FOO pollination and soils
  • BIO → HLT zoonoses and medicines
  • CLI → BIO heat, fire and ocean warming

Evidence to bind in 2027

  • ecosystem condition beyond protected areas
  • progress of national biodiversity strategies
  • ocean protection under the High Seas Agreement

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 8WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000–2022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.back
  2. 38UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: Water for Prosperity and Peace. UNESCO, Paris, 2024.back
  3. 15H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.back
  4. 4International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
  5. 6Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.back
  6. 5International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
  7. 36International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.back
  8. 7FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.back
  9. 23F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, “Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54–57, 2020.back
  10. 14World Health Organization (ed.), “Ambient (outdoor) air pollution” and “Household air pollution” fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.back
  11. 26M. Romanello et al., “The 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,” The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847–1896, 2024.back
  12. 27World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025.back
  13. 28World Health Assembly (ed.), Amendments to the International Health Regulations (2005), resolution WHA77.17. WHO, Geneva, June 2024.back
  14. 16P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054back
  15. 9WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.back
  16. 10UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.back
  17. 30Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.back
  18. 20K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., “Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,” Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.back
  19. 17K. O’Brien, L. Garibaldi and A. Agrawal (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024.back
  20. 21T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 8: Systems in depth. In Global Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Interdependent Risk, Readiness and Frontier Change (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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