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\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\"><style>#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-gs-05-full.nxe{display:block;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:1180px;margin:0 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svg{display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-gs-05-full.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-gs-05-full.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-gs-05-full.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Global Finance and Economy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\u2019s Financial and Economic System.<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GS-05<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Global Sector Risk and Resilience<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Global Finance and Economy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\u2019s Financial and Economic System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Finance is where shocks are priced<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Sovereign bond repricing under inflation and thin fiscal space<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>10 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>The world economy enters 2027 growing, repricing and indebted at the same time. World output grew 3.5% in 2025 on the IMF basis and 2.9% on the World Bank basis<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. The Middle East conflict that began in early 2026 pushed energy prices and inflation up, and the BIS reports fertiliser prices up 50% and plastics up 30%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Central banks have tightened again: the euro area deposit facility rate rose to 2.50% on 16 September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup>. Public debt is the common pressure. Advanced economies carry general government gross debt of 108.2% of GDP and emerging market and developing economies 73.7%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest in 2025, a median 8.1% of government revenue, and the interest bill now exceeds health or education spending in 51 of them<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>. Markets are changing shape. Non-bank financial institutions held 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt in 2025, up from 44% in 2021, and hedge fund leverage stayed near record highs<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>. Long-term bond yields in France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States reached their highest levels in more than a decade after late September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>. Foreign direct investment rose 6% to USD 1.6 trillion in 2025, driven by a few artificial intelligence megaprojects<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It ranks no country and recommends no policy or investment.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the finance and economy baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">World output grew 3.5% in 2025 on the IMF basis and 2.9% on the World Bank basis.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How fast is the economy growing?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Advanced economies carry 108.2% of GDP and emerging and developing economies 73.7%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How heavy is public debt?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Who pays most to borrow?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Non-banks hold 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Who holds the debt?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">It held 56.7% of allocated reserves in the second quarter of 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is the dollar still the anchor?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A few AI megaprojects drove global foreign direct investment to USD 1.6 trillion.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Where is investment going?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Food prices were 5.8% above a year earlier in September 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Do prices reach households?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A repricing of sovereign bonds under inflation and thin fiscal space. SCN-GS05-SOV-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">In 2025, developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest on USD 35 trillion of public debt, a median 8.1% of government revenue.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-fig1-t\">Interest paid and interest saved, developing countries (USD billion)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Net interest on public debt, 2025<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">995<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Annual saving at developed-country borrowing costs<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"50.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">500<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: UNCTAD, A World of Debt 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">The interest bill is now large enough to compete with services. UNCTAD counts 51 developing countries that spend more on interest than on either education or health, and 3.7 billion people living in them, 1.2 billion more than in 2010<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>. The pressure is also the product of supply: bilateral lenders have diverted assistance and private creditors have become more risk averse, so developing countries borrow more at home<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>growth in world output, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">108.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">% of GDP<\/span><p>advanced-economy debt, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">995<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>developing-country net interest, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">53<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>non-bank share of advanced-economy sovereign debt, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">56.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>US dollar share of allocated reserves, 2026 Q2<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>foreign direct investment, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading finance as the pricing layer of the WEFH+B system.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people finance arrives as a price, a rate or a cut in a service.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Borrowing costs are high, official assistance fell and the financing gap is estimated at USD 4 trillion.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The system is well measured at the level of aggregates and thinly measured at the level of non-bank links, private credit and protection gaps.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the 2026 state of the world\u2019s financial and economic system and the couplings through which it carries risk into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a ranking of economies, a forecast of markets, an investment recommendation or an assessment of any central bank, regulator, lender, fund or government. Monetary, fiscal and prudential decisions rest with national authorities and the institutions that hold the mandates.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 finance and economy edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cs-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Finance is where shocks are priced<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is finance and economy risk concentrated?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry finance and economy shocks into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which finance and economy capabilities hold under compound stress?<\/li><li>What must 2027 evidence measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five coupling chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Finance is usually reported as markets and balance sheets. The 2026 evidence reads it as the layer where every other system\u2019s shock is priced, passed on or absorbed: fuel and fertiliser into inflation, inflation into policy rates, policy rates into the interest bill, and the interest bill into health, education and resilience budgets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The system is large and rising. Global debt passed USD 365 trillion in the first half of 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>, and the US Treasury reports total public debt outstanding of USD 40.5 trillion on 2 November 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup>. Growth has held up, helped by AI-related investment, but forecasts differ by issuer: the IMF projects 3.1% for 2026 and the World Bank 2.5%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The structure of the markets has changed. Non-banks now hold 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt, and leveraged hedge funds intermediate more of it through short-term funding<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. The Federal Reserve notes hedge fund leverage near record highs<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>, and the FSB chair\u2019s October letter lists volatility in sovereign bond markets, private credit and AI among the risks to watch<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The burden falls unevenly. Developing countries pay USD 995 billion in net interest<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>, official development assistance fell 23.1% in real terms in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup>, and the UN estimates an annual financing gap of USD 4 trillion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup>. A system that prices shocks well still leaves people without a buffer: 56% of adults could reliably find emergency money in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-fig1-t\">How many people live where interest outweighs health or education? Share of regional population in such countries (%)<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">In both regions the share has risen sharply since 2010. Over half the population of developing Asia and Oceania is also in countries where interest exceeds health or education spending<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Africa, 2010<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"36.9\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">24<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Africa, 2023<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">65<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Latin America and the Caribbean, 2010<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"52.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">34<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Latin America and the Caribbean, 2023<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"89.2\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">58<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2023.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">65<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of Africa\u2019s population in such countries, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">58<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of the population of Latin America and the Caribbean, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>people in such countries, latest year in the report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">51<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">countries<\/span><p>developing countries spending more on interest than on either<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The finance and economy-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for their finance and economy content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydropower revenue \u00b7 utility finance<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigated yields \u00b7 farm credit<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">utility revenues<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">flow regimes<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping costs \u00b7 utility budgets<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fuel and fertiliser costs \u00b7 food prices<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">clinic costs \u00b7 household budgets \u00b7 interest<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">extraction finance<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation demand<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bioenergy markets<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">food prices \u00b7 household budgets<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land-use finance<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">public spending claims<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">public spending claims<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour supply<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">ecosystem services<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">resource revenues<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination \u00b7 fisheries incomes<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FOO \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Fuel and fertiliser prices reach food prices and household budgets.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2026 fertiliser and plastics prices<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; food price index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 ENE \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A supply shock lifts inflation and policy rates and raises borrowing costs.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2026 rate rises<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup>; bond yields<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A larger interest bill displaces health and education spending.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> interest above health or education spending<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>; Senegal case<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">AI capital expenditure and valuations lift financial conditions and then amplify a reversal.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> hyperscaler spending and valuations<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">BIO \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Nature loss reduces productive capacity and raises sovereign interest costs.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span> scenario across 23 countries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Institute of International Finance (ed.), Global Debt Monitor, edition of 23 September 2026 (headline statement on the issuer\u2019s listing page; the report and data file were not opened). IIF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (first half). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (record date 2 November 2026), retrieved through the Fiscal Data service. US Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page and Chapter 1 highlights, The Global Outlook). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (projections, with 2025 outcomes). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Letter from the FSB Chair to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors and note on global stablecoin arrangements, October 2026 (publication page; the attached documents were not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E\/FFDF\/2026\/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>United Nations Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development (ed.), Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2026: Implementing the Sevilla Commitment (report page; the full report was not opened). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Federspiel, F., Borghi, J., Tarp Jensen, H., Mbaye, E.M. et al., Influence of public external debt on government health expenditure: a mixed-methods case study of Senegal, PLOS Global Public Health 6, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2023 (debt and health statistics 1970 to 2023; interviews 2019 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.biodiversity-loss\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Biodiversity loss<\/a> will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c1-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the finance and economy baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>11 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">In 2025, developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest on USD 35 trillion of public debt, a median 8.1% of government revenue.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-fig1-t\">Interest paid and interest saved, developing countries (USD billion)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Net interest on public debt, 2025<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">995<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Annual saving at developed-country borrowing costs<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"50.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">500<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: UNCTAD, A World of Debt 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The interest bill is now large enough to compete with services. UNCTAD counts 51 developing countries that spend more on interest than on either education or health, and 3.7 billion people living in them, 1.2 billion more than in 2010<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>. The pressure is also the product of supply: bilateral lenders have diverted assistance and private creditors have become more risk averse, so developing countries borrow more at home<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The next A World of Debt report, the 2026 Financing for Sustainable Development outcome and borrowing costs for emerging market sovereigns would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">World output grew 3.5% in 2025 on the IMF basis and 2.9% on the World Bank basis; the two series differ in weights and vintage and both are shown.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">General government gross debt was 108.2% of GDP in advanced economies and 73.7% in emerging and developing economies in 2025; the World Bank dates the rise in emerging and developing economy debt from under 40% of GDP in 2010 to over 70%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Developing countries held USD 35 trillion of public debt in 2025 and paid USD 995 billion in net interest, a median 8.1% of government revenue, nearly double the 2010 level.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-004\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Non-bank financial institutions held 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt in 2025, up from 44% in 2021, and hedge fund leverage remained near record highs.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The US dollar held 56.7% of allocated official reserves in the second quarter of 2026, the euro 20.6% and the renminbi 2.1%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>AIC<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-006\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The five largest hyperscalers are set to spend over USD 1 trillion on AI-related capital expenditure across 2025 and 2026, and greenfield digital infrastructure project values rose more than 80% in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Trade<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-007\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Global foreign direct investment rose 6% to USD 1.6 trillion in 2025, with flows to developed economies up 11% and to developing economies up 2%; least developed countries received USD 43 billion, 2.7% of the total.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Health<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">In 2023, 65% of Africa\u2019s population lived in countries spending more on interest than on health or education, up from 24% in 2010, and UNCTAD counts 3.7 billion people worldwide in such countries.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Food<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The FAO Food Price Index averaged 136.0 points in September 2026, 5.8% above a year earlier, and the BIS reports prices of fertilisers up 50% and plastics up 30% after the Middle East conflict began.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Infrastructure<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-010\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">More than USD 14 trillion of gross foreign exchange obligations settled on an average day in April 2025; 36% settled through payment versus payment <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and about USD 1.4 trillion, 10%, settled gross bilaterally and stayed fully exposed to settlement risk.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Biodiversity<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">A partial <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.ecosystem-collapse\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Loss of the defining species, structure and functions of an ecosystem, such as a reef, lake, kelp forest or wetland, beyond the point of natural recovery.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">ecosystem collapse<\/a> scenario raises sovereign interest costs by up to USD 162 billion a year across 23 countries, because sovereign credit ratings do not yet incorporate nature-related risks.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.9<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a repricing of sovereign bonds in which energy-driven inflation, an AI valuation correction and leveraged non-bank deleveraging coincide with thin fiscal space. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026, chapter 3 (government debt in emerging market and developing economies; full report PDF opened). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.biodiversity-loss\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Biodiversity loss<\/a> will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c2-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Output<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Growth in world output<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">3.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>IMF basis; 2.9% on the World Bank basis.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>IMF<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Debt<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Advanced-economy government gross debt<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">108.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">% of GDP<\/span><p>emerging and developing economies 73.7%.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>IMF<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Interest<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Developing countries\u2019 net interest on public debt<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">995<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>median 8.1% of government revenue.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">TRD \u00b7 Investment<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Global foreign direct investment<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>up 6%; developing economies USD 901 billion.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Inclusion<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Adults with an account<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">79<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>40% of adults in developing economies saved in a financial account.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>Findex<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Cross-system<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Euro area deposit facility rate<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.50<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>raised on 17 June and 16 September 2026 from 2.00%.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>ECB<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through finance and economy, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries finance and economy risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Utilities and irrigation depend on public and development finance and on credit. No consolidated global series is bound here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2194 WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Energy price shocks reach policy rates, inflation and budgets. The euro area deposit facility rate rose to 2.50% in 2026.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Food prices were 5.8% above a year earlier in September 2026 and fertiliser prices rose 50% after the conflict began.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 FOO \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Interest exceeds health or education spending in 51 developing countries; a Senegal case study links external debt to constrained health budgets.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Nature loss is a sovereign <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 credit-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The risk of loss from a borrower or counterparty failing to meet obligations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">credit risk<\/a> in a scenario across 23 countries; current ratings do not reflect it.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>One in four adults in low and middle income economies faced a natural disaster in the past three years; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 insured-loss\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The part of economic loss that is covered by insurance.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">insured loss<\/a> series were not opened.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Payment versus payment settles 36% of foreign exchange obligations; Basel III adoption is 47% complete; the EU digital resilience rules apply.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2194 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Debt, reserves, non-bank leverage and bond yields at decade highs define the core of the system.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 8<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Official series are open through data services, but growth and inflation differ by issuer and some world aggregates are not published.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>AI capital expenditure above USD 1 trillion in 2025 and 2026 lifts investment and valuations; FSB sound practices address AI in finance.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Input and commodity price spikes reach finance through inflation; mineral-specific finance is not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Foreign direct investment of USD 1.6 trillion is concentrated in a few strategic sectors and economies.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2194 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on finance and economy, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>finance prices every other system\u2019s shock<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>sovereign repricing<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>utility and irrigation finance not consolidated<\/td><td>infrastructure funding gaps<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>energy-driven inflation and rate rises<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>price shock transmission<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food<\/td><td>food price index 5.8% above a year earlier<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>input cost pass-through<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>interest exceeds health spending in many countries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>budget displacement<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td>debt, reserves and non-bank leverage<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>sovereign bond repricing<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>official assistance down 23.1% in real terms<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>financing squeeze<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>one in four adults faced a disaster in three years<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>disaster finance<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 insured-loss\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The part of economic loss that is covered by insurance.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">insured loss<\/a> series not opened<\/td><td>protection gaps<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>payment and settlement <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>settlement risk<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>municipal finance not consolidated<\/td><td>borrowing costs<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>nature risk in sovereign credit<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>credit repricing<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>data for exposure and loss estimation<\/td><td>continuity of data<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>digital operational resilience rules<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>outsourcing and cyber stress<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>Basel III and FSB standards<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>implementation gaps<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>financial network research<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>data on non-bank links<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E\/FFDF\/2026\/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.biodiversity-loss\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Biodiversity loss<\/a> will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Union (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2022\/2554 of the European Parliament and of the Council on digital operational resilience for the financial sector (DORA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022 (consolidated text read on the legal-acts portal; applies from 17 January 2025). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: adoption status of the standards as of 30 September 2026 (implementation page). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Public sector backstop funding: peer review of jurisdictions, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Jackson, M.O. and Pernoud, A., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 systemic-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Risk that the failure or disruption of parts of an interconnected system propagates through its dependencies to impair the functioning of the whole, often beyond the sector or place where it began. It arises from\u2026\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/glossary\/systemic-risk\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Forum glossary\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/cross-stream-practicum\/\" data-tal=\"Cross-Stream Practicum\">Systemic Risk<\/a> in Financial Networks: A Survey, arXiv preprint 2012.12702, December 2020 (the preprint states that it is forthcoming in the Annual Review of Economics; the published version was not opened). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Bardoscia, M., Battiston, S., Caccioli, F. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: A microscopic foundation for shock propagation, arXiv preprint 1504.01857, version 2, June 2015 (preprint read; the journal version was not opened). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c3-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four finance and economy risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>19 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS05-FIN-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Sovereign bond repricing under high debt and non-bank leverage<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>high public debt, higher yields and leveraged non-bank intermediation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>advanced-economy bond markets and emerging market issuers with dollar debt<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>liquidity that can vanish abruptly; thin fiscal space; funding that depends on repo<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>central bank backstops; bank capital; resolution tools<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>FIN \u2192 HLT, FOO, INF<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS05-FIN-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Debt service crowding out public services in developing countries<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>high borrowing costs and falling external finance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>countries spending more on interest than on health or education<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>weak revenue mobilisation; dollar-denominated sovereign borrowing<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>multilateral lending; debt management; safety nets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>FIN \u2192 HLT, FOO<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS05-AIC-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">AI investment boom reversing<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>competitive over-investment and uncertain payoffs<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>large technology firms, their lenders and equity markets<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>opaque financing; stretched valuations<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>bank and insurer capital; supervisory guidance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>AIC \u2192 FIN \u2192 TRD<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS05-INF-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Settlement and operational failure in payment systems<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>cyber, outsourcing and settlement failures<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>foreign exchange settlement outside payment versus payment; USD 1.4 trillion a day settled gross<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>concentration in a few providers; fragmentation of payment rules<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>payment versus payment <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>; resilience rules<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>INF \u2192 FIN \u2192 TRD<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for finance and economy at the global level.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>Basel III adoption 47% complete in member jurisdictions; credit and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 operational-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The risk of loss from inadequate or failed processes, people and systems, or from external events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">operational risk<\/a> standards effective in about 85%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>regular stability reviews by the Fed, ECB and BIS; data thinner for non-banks<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>surveys of salient risks and stability reviews; no common global signal<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>resolution planning in place; about half of jurisdictions with material gaps in public sector backstops<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>bank capital near historic highs; official reserves of USD 13.2 trillion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>rate rises in 2026 after the energy shock; emergency liquidity tools exist<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>EU digital operational resilience rules apply from 17 January 2025; testing uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>resolution regimes documented; backstop gaps reported<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>supervisory guidance on AI adoption published in October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>official assistance fell 23.1% in real terms; protection cover not consolidated<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>protection-gap series not opened; no figure used<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>FSB and Basel Committee coordination; implementation review published in 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>payment versus payment settles 36% of foreign exchange obligations<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>supervisory and risk skills not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>strong financial-network research; non-bank data access uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Public sector backstop funding: peer review of jurisdictions, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E\/FFDF\/2026\/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page and Chapter 1 highlights, The Global Outlook). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (projections, with 2025 outcomes). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>United Nations Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development (ed.), Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2026: Implementing the Sevilla Commitment (report page; the full report was not opened). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Sound practices for the responsible adoption of artificial intelligence (AI): final report, October 2026 (publication page); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Union (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2022\/2554 of the European Parliament and of the Council on digital operational resilience for the financial sector (DORA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022 (consolidated text read on the legal-acts portal; applies from 17 January 2025). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: adoption status of the standards as of 30 September 2026 (implementation page). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma research on natural catastrophe losses and protection gaps; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), G20 Implementation Monitoring Review: 2026 report, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Jackson, M.O. and Pernoud, A., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 systemic-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Risk that the failure or disruption of parts of an interconnected system propagates through its dependencies to impair the functioning of the whole, often beyond the sector or place where it began. It arises from\u2026\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/glossary\/systemic-risk\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Forum glossary\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/cross-stream-practicum\/\" data-tal=\"Cross-Stream Practicum\">Systemic Risk<\/a> in Financial Networks: A Survey, arXiv preprint 2012.12702, December 2020 (the preprint states that it is forthcoming in the Annual Review of Economics; the published version was not opened). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Bardoscia, M., Battiston, S., Caccioli, F. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: A microscopic foundation for shock propagation, arXiv preprint 1504.01857, version 2, June 2015 (preprint read; the journal version was not opened). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Sovereign bond repricing under inflation and thin fiscal space<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>2 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-GS05-SOV-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a repricing of sovereign risk that coincides with persistent inflation, an AI valuation correction and deleveraging by leveraged non-banks<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>the 2022 to 2023 bond market stress and the 2026 yield rise<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">energy prices keep inflation above target and policy rates rise<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">long-term yields rise; hedge funds deleverage in government bond markets<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">an AI valuation correction tightens financial conditions further<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">scenario<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the interest bill displaces health and education spending<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2023 \u00b7 2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">currency weakness and input costs raise food prices in importers<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">funding stress strains settlement and market infrastructure<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-GS05-SOV-01 would travel through Global Finance and Economy&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Energy to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Energy prices keep inflation above target and policy rates rise. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-05, scenario SCN-GS05-SOV-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Finance to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Long-term yields rise; hedge funds deleverage in government bond markets. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-05, scenario SCN-GS05-SOV-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 AI compute to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">An AI valuation correction tightens financial conditions further. Analogue or source: scenario.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-05, scenario SCN-GS05-SOV-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Finance to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The interest bill displaces health and education spending. Analogue or source: 2023 \u00b7 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-05, scenario SCN-GS05-SOV-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Finance to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Currency weakness and input costs raise food prices in importers. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-05, scenario SCN-GS05-SOV-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Finance to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Funding stress strains settlement and market infrastructure. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-05, scenario SCN-GS05-SOV-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Global Finance and Economy 2026, scenario SCN-GS05-SOV-01<\/a> (2026); Global Finance and Economy 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c5-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The finance and economy baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>17 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>41 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading finance as the pricing layer of the WEFH+B system. Output has held up, debt and borrowing costs are high, markets have changed shape and the interest bill is displacing services. Evidence is strongest for debt, reserves and investment flows, and weakest for private credit, insured losses and payment progress.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-003 \u00b7 FIN-004 \u00b7 TRD-007 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people finance arrives as a price, a rate or a cut in a service. The baseline asks that public debate keep the 3.7 billion people in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education in view alongside the market story.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">HLT-008 \u00b7 FOO-009 \u00b7 FIN-003<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Borrowing costs are high, official assistance fell and the financing gap is estimated at USD 4 trillion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup>. These show where capital-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-003 \u00b7 AIC-006<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The system is well measured at the level of aggregates and thinly measured at the level of non-bank links, private credit and protection gaps. The 2027 programme should bind regional market evidence, test sovereign repricing, and map who holds which debt before stress shows it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 F-01 \u00b7 F-03<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for finance and economy. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability exist?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests show?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What changed in the year, and what renews?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> sector desks<\/td><td>finance chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, GRA readiness, NXS standards, RA capability<\/td><td>sector editorial board<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard is a decision of the competent standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Every shock of this decade has reached finance and been passed on by it. Fuel and fertiliser became inflation, inflation became rates, and rates became an interest bill. Treating finance as a separate market understates how it carries stress between systems. This edition asks where a financial shock goes next.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>Finance is a coupling, not a sector<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Non-banks hold more than half of advanced-economy sovereign debt, hedge funds intermediate more of it, and liquidity can vanish abruptly. The bank-sovereign link has become a fiscal-financial nexus that works through funding markets and across borders. Measuring who holds what is the first adaptation.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>The market has changed shape<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">In 2025 developing countries spent USD 995 billion on net interest. A case study of Senegal links external debt to constrained health budgets, and a synthetic-control study of Greece finds a 43% rise in infant mortality after austerity. Neither result is a verdict on a policy, but both show that the budget line has consequences.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Interest is a budget line with a human cost<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Sovereign credit assessments omit the loss of ecosystem services. A scenario across 23 countries shows interest costs rising by up to USD 162 billion a year. The scenario is a test of method, not a forecast, and it points to a gap in the information markets use.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Nature is the unpriced side of the ledger<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 global edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 finance and economy readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 finance and economy readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td>Finance and Economy risk state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 6 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>national chapters in preparation<\/td><td>national chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments and published guidance that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN IMPLEMENTATION<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Basel III final standards, implementation status<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN IMPLEMENTATION 47% COMPLETE<\/td><td>prudential capital<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Digital Operational Resilience Act, Regulation (EU) 2022\/2554<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE FROM JANUARY 2025<\/td><td>ICT resilience<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation, Regulation (EU) 2023\/1114<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>crypto-assets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sound practices for the responsible adoption of AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Financial Stability Board<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE OCT 2026<\/td><td>AI governance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Public sector backstop recommendations, peer review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Financial Stability Board<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>resolution funding<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IFRS Sustainability Disclosure Standards<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IFRS Foundation, ISSB<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 STANDARD<\/td><td>disclosure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sevilla Commitment on financing for development<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2025<\/td><td>development finance<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The FSB finalised twelve sound practices for the responsible adoption of AI in October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The FSB peer review of public sector backstops reported material gaps in about half of jurisdictions in October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Basel Committee reported on 30 September 2026 that implementation of the final Basel III standards is complete in 47% of member jurisdictions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Completion of Basel III in the remaining jurisdictions, expected to be nearly complete by the first half of 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>FSB follow-up on global stablecoin arrangements and cross-border vulnerabilities<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Implementation of the Sevilla Commitment through the 2026 and 2027 financing for development cycle<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers finance and economy assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the world\u2019s financial and economic system and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>agency flagships; central bank and regulator reports; peer-reviewed finance and health literature; statistics<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Jackson and Pernoud<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>preprint<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>financial network taxonomy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bardoscia et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>preprint<\/td><td>2015<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>shock propagation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agarwala et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>nature and sovereign credit<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Federspiel et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>debt and health spending<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kolesar and Spruk<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>austerity and infant mortality<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Acemoglu et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2015<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>contagion in networks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Battiston et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2012<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>systemic importance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Reinhart and Rogoff<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>book<\/td><td>2009<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>financial crises history<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional flagships<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Annual Economic Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>BIS<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>debt, non-banks, AI, stablecoins<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Quarterly Review, June 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>BIS<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>foreign exchange settlement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Economic Prospects, June 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>growth outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Investment Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNCTAD<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>investment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A World of Debt 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNCTAD<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>interest burden<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN DESA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>financing gap<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Financial Stability Report, October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>not opened<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fiscal Monitor, October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>not opened<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Statistics, access and markets<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>World Economic Outlook database<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>growth, inflation, debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>COFER<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>reserves<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Monthly, October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>bond yields<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Development indicators<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>remittances, external debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Findex 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>inclusion<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Debt Monitor<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IIF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>global debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Debt to the Penny<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>US Treasury<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>US public debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Government debt statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Eurostat<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>euro area debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food Price Index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>food prices<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards, regulation and implementation<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Financial Stability Report, May 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Federal Reserve Board<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>leverage, valuations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Financial Stability Review, May 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ECB<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>euro area stability<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Letter and stablecoin note<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FSB<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>risk priorities<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sound practices for AI adoption<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FSB<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>AI governance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Public sector backstop review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FSB<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>resolution funding<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Implementation Monitoring Review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FSB<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>implementation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Basel III implementation status<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>BCBS<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>prudential rules<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Digital Operational Resilience Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>ICT risk<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Markets in Crypto-Assets Regulation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>crypto-assets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Basel III final reforms<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>BCBS<\/td><td>2017<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>capital rules<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FATF Recommendations<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FATF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>financial integrity<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Public debt is high and the interest bill is rising<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Non-banks hold a larger share of sovereign debt than in 2021<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The US dollar is the largest reserve currency<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How fast world output is growing: the IMF and the World Bank differ by about 0.6 percentage points for 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Whether the AI investment boom is sustained<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How large global debt is on one basis: IIF, IMF and BIS series differ by scope<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>United Nations Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development (ed.), Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2026: Implementing the Sevilla Commitment (report page; the full report was not opened). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E\/FFDF\/2026\/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: adoption status of the standards as of 30 September 2026 (implementation page). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Union (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2022\/2554 of the European Parliament and of the Council on digital operational resilience for the financial sector (DORA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022 (consolidated text read on the legal-acts portal; applies from 17 January 2025). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023\/1114 of the European Parliament and of the Council on markets in crypto-assets (MiCA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; the legal-acts portal did not return the text. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Sound practices for the responsible adoption of artificial intelligence (AI): final report, October 2026 (publication page); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Public sector backstop funding: peer review of jurisdictions, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS Sustainability Disclosure Standards developed by the International Sustainability Standards Board (information page; the individual standards were not opened). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S1 General Requirements for Disclosure of Sustainability-related Financial Information and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures, June 2023, cited from memory; no figure is used. IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Sevilla Commitment, outcome document of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, Sevilla, 30 June to 3 July 2025, cited from the forum outcome [27]; the document itself was not opened. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Letter from the FSB Chair to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors and note on global stablecoin arrangements, October 2026 (publication page; the attached documents were not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Jackson, M.O. and Pernoud, A., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 systemic-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Risk that the failure or disruption of parts of an interconnected system propagates through its dependencies to impair the functioning of the whole, often beyond the sector or place where it began. It arises from\u2026\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/glossary\/systemic-risk\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Forum glossary\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/cross-stream-practicum\/\" data-tal=\"Cross-Stream Practicum\">Systemic Risk<\/a> in Financial Networks: A Survey, arXiv preprint 2012.12702, December 2020 (the preprint states that it is forthcoming in the Annual Review of Economics; the published version was not opened). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Bardoscia, M., Battiston, S., Caccioli, F. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: A microscopic foundation for shock propagation, arXiv preprint 1504.01857, version 2, June 2015 (preprint read; the journal version was not opened). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.biodiversity-loss\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Biodiversity loss<\/a> will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Federspiel, F., Borghi, J., Tarp Jensen, H., Mbaye, E.M. et al., Influence of public external debt on government health expenditure: a mixed-methods case study of Senegal, PLOS Global Public Health 6, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2023 (debt and health statistics 1970 to 2023; interviews 2019 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Kolesar, R.J. and Spruk, R., Effect of Austerity Measures on Infant Mortality: Evidence From Greece, Health Economics 35, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). John Wiley and Sons. Observation year 2020 (study period 2010 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Acemoglu, D., Ozdaglar, A. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks, American Economic Review, 2015, cited from memory; only a bibliographic record of the 2013 working paper version was checked. American Economic Association. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Battiston, S., Puliga, M., Kaushik, R., Tasca, P. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: Too central to fail? Financial networks, the FED and systemic risk, Scientific Reports 2, 2012, cited from memory; no figure is used. Springer Nature. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory; no figure is used. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page and Chapter 1 highlights, The Global Outlook). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (projections, with 2025 outcomes). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, April 2026 vintage (world aggregates), retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Institute of International Finance (ed.), Global Debt Monitor, edition of 23 September 2026 (headline statement on the issuer\u2019s listing page; the report and data file were not opened). IIF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (first half). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (record date 2 November 2026), retrieved through the Fiscal Data service. US Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Eurostat (ed.), Government deficit\/surplus, debt and associated data (table gov_10dd_edpt1, euro area EA20, general government, percentage of GDP; updated 21 October 2026), retrieved through the Eurostat data service. European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), G20 Implementation Monitoring Review: 2026 report, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory; no figure is used. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Financial Action Task Force (ed.), The FATF Recommendations, current consolidated text; the publisher site returned access denied and no figure from it is used. FATF, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 finance and economy agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 finance and economy edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a repricing of sovereign bonds, with high inflation and leveraged non-bank deleveraging, travel into budgets, health spending and food prices at once?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS05-SOV-01 \u00b7 sovereign repricing test; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where does the interest bill displace health, education and resilience spending, and what would different borrowing costs change?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS05-DEB-02 \u00b7 debt service and public services; first output: interest-versus-services table by country group.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Who holds sovereign debt in each large market, and how much of it depends on short-term funding?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS05-NBF-03 \u00b7 non-bank holdings and funding; first output: holder map for five bond markets.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How much of AI capital expenditure is financed by debt, and where do electricity and equipment bottlenecks bind the return?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS05-AIC-04 \u00b7 AI investment financing; first output: financing-structure note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which countries\u2019 sovereign credit assessments omit nature-related and climate-related risk, and by how much?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS05-NAT-05 \u00b7 nature in sovereign credit; first output: sensitivity table beyond 23 countries.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which payment corridors and settlement <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> lack contingency arrangements?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: corridor overlay.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do remittances, account access and disaster exposure interact for households?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which finance capabilities have been tested in real stress, and which are only legislated?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Finance capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 finance and economy portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS05-SOV-01<\/span><\/td><td>Sovereign repricing test<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS05-DEB-02<\/span><\/td><td>Debt service and public services<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS05-NBF-03<\/span><\/td><td>Non-bank holdings and funding<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS05-AIC-04<\/span><\/td><td>AI investment financing<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS05-NAT-05<\/span><\/td><td>Nature in sovereign credit<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-GS05-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Sovereign repricing Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>F-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The finance and economy edition reads national economic chapters, regional market and balance-sheet evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National economic chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finance and economy chapter of each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">DRAFTED \u00b7 further national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Market and balance-sheet evidence<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">sovereign bond markets, reserves and cross-border banking<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 regional Baseline Editions<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Finance and economy sector model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the global finance and economy system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Global and strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">GLB \u00b7 SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience \u00b7 SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability \u00b7 SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Global Finance and Economy Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE DRAFT \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the finance and economy candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the finance and economy candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 global annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-GS05-2027-01 \u00b7 Sovereign repricing Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead: drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>FIN-001 \u00b7 output<\/td><td>public record<\/td><td>reference for the 2027 series<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-003 \u00b7 interest burden<\/td><td>INI-GS05-DEB-02<\/td><td>debt service and public services<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-004 \u00b7 non-bank holdings<\/td><td>INI-GS05-NBF-03<\/td><td>non-bank holdings and funding<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AIC-006 \u00b7 AI investment<\/td><td>INI-GS05-AIC-04<\/td><td>AI investment financing<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HLT-008 \u00b7 interest and health<\/td><td>INI-GS05-DEB-02<\/td><td>debt service and public services<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIO-011 \u00b7 nature and credit<\/td><td>INI-GS05-NAT-05<\/td><td>nature in sovereign credit<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>INF-010 \u00b7 settlement risk<\/td><td>regional consortia<\/td><td>payment corridor overlay<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-GS05-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CODES ARE NOT JOINS<\/p><p>Series codes in this edition (GS-05 and its relatives) are Reports codes. Codes in other indices can look alike. This edition makes no join on a code alone: a join needs a registry record that names both subjects.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>World Economic Outlook database<\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>semiannual<\/td><td>FIN-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Economic Prospects<\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>semiannual<\/td><td>FIN-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Quarterly Review<\/td><td>Bank for International Settlements<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>INF-010<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Debt Monitor<\/td><td>Institute of International Finance<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>FIN-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Currency composition of official reserves<\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>FIN-005<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Key interest rates<\/td><td>European Central Bank Data Portal<\/td><td>on each change<\/td><td>SYS-012<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Debt to the Penny<\/td><td>US Treasury<\/td><td>daily<\/td><td>FIN-002<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-GS05-001<\/td><td>Long-term bond yields at decade highs in five advanced economies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>FIN \u00b7 INF<\/td><td>research question F-01<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-GS05-002<\/td><td>Interest above health or education spending in 51 countries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>FIN \u00b7 HLT<\/td><td>initiative F-02<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-GS05-003<\/td><td>Non-bank share of sovereign debt rising<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>FIN \u00b7 INF<\/td><td>research question F-03<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c7-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>8 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Finance and prices<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Prices set by physical shocks reach finance through inflation, policy rates, import bills and fiscal relief. The 2026 Middle East conflict showed all four channels at once.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.50<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>euro area deposit facility rate from 16 September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>US headline inflation in September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">70<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">basis points<\/span><p>rise in US high-yield spreads since the start of September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Policy rates<\/td><td>euro area deposit facility rate raised from 2.00% to 2.25% on 17 June and to 2.50% on 16 September 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Inflation<\/td><td>US headline inflation rose to 3.7% in September 2026 from 3.4% in August<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bond yields<\/td><td>long-term yields in France, Germany, Japan, the United Kingdom and the United States reached their highest in more than a decade after late September<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fiscal relief<\/td><td>deficits in 2027 projected at or above 2025 levels in most jurisdictions<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 FIN prices and rates<\/li><li>TRD \u2192 FIN import bills<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 FIN yields and funding<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>yield levels at the evidence close<\/li><li>euro area inflation after December 2025<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The next ECB decisions; whether advanced-economy yields stay at decade highs; the path of US inflation after September.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes market and policy couplings. It assesses no central bank and makes no forecast of rates or prices.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Finance and food<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Food depends on credit, inputs and trade finance. Input prices and currency moves pass through to food prices, and weak currencies raise the cost of imports.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">136.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">points<\/span><p>FAO Food Price Index, September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">50<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>rise in fertiliser prices after the conflict began<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">30<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>rise in plastics prices after the conflict began<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Food prices<\/td><td>the index was 5.8% above a year earlier and 15.1% below its March 2022 peak<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Input costs<\/td><td>fertiliser prices up 50% and plastics up 30%<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wheat and maize<\/td><td>wheat at its highest since August 2023 and maize at a three-year high in September 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Farm credit<\/td><td>not consolidated here<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 FOO \u2192 FIN input costs<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 FOO currency and credit<\/li><li>TRD \u2192 FOO shipping and trade finance<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>farm credit conditions by region<\/li><li>food import bills by country group<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Fertiliser and grain prices; emerging market currencies; food price pass-through to household budgets.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes price and credit couplings. It makes no statement on any country\u2019s agricultural or trade policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Finance and health<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Public health budgets compete with interest. Evidence from debt statistics and from case studies shows how borrowing costs, austerity and external debt can reach health.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">65<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of Africa\u2019s population in countries spending more on interest than on health or education, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">43<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>rise in infant mortality in Greece against a synthetic counterfactual after 2010<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">854<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p>estimated excess infant deaths in Greece, 2010 to 2020<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Interest versus health<\/td><td>51 developing countries spend more on interest than on either health or education<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External debt and health budgets<\/td><td>in Senegal debt obligations constrained the government budget including health spending<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Austerity and infant mortality<\/td><td>a synthetic-control study finds an average 43% rise after the 2010 adjustment programme in Greece<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Household shock absorption<\/td><td>56% of adults could reliably access emergency money in 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FIN \u2192 HLT budgets and interest<\/li><li>FOO \u2192 HLT household budgets<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 HLT clinic and household costs<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>health spending outcomes by country<\/li><li>household debt service by country<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The next A World of Debt report; health budget lines in countries with high interest costs; household emergency finance.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Health-system planning rests with national authorities and WHO. No personal health data are used or shown in Reports.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Finance and nature<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Nature supplies the ecosystem services that underpin output and tax revenue. Sovereign credit assessments do not yet price their loss, and investment flows to sustainable sectors remain uneven.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">83<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>sovereign debt assets that may be mispriced, in the study<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">162<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>extra annual interest across 23 countries in the scenario<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of global foreign direct investment received by least developed countries, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sovereign credit<\/td><td>ratings omit biodiversity and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 ecosystem-service\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A benefit people obtain from ecosystems, such as food, clean water, pollination, flood regulation or cultural value.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">ecosystem service<\/a> risk in the study\u2019s reading<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Scenario cost<\/td><td>partial <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.ecosystem-collapse\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Loss of the defining species, structure and functions of an ecosystem, such as a reef, lake, kelp forest or wetland, beyond the point of natural recovery.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">ecosystem collapse<\/a> adds USD 49 billion a year in India and USD 70 billion in China<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sustainable-sector investment<\/td><td>investment related to the Sustainable Development Goals picked up in 2025 while renewable greenfield values fell<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate-related finance<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 insured-loss\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The part of economic loss that is covered by insurance.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">insured loss<\/a> and scenario series were not opened<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>BIO \u2192 FIN sovereign credit<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 BIO land-use finance<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 FIN disaster losses<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 nature-related-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Risk to organisations and societies from dependence on, and impacts upon, nature and its degradation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/biodiversity-and-ecosystems\/\" data-tal=\"Biodiversity and Ecosystems\">nature-related risk<\/a> in more than 23 countries<\/li><li>insured disaster losses<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Rating methodology changes; conservation finance against the global framework target; climate and nature scenarios for supervisors.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Biodiversity is not reduced to a single number. The scenario tests a method and is not a forecast or a rating.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Financial stability, payments and rules<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Stability now depends on how banks, non-banks and payment <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> interact. Leverage, settlement risk and the pace of rule adoption are the three channels the 2025 and 2026 evidence shows.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">53<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>non-bank share of advanced-economy sovereign debt, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">47<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of member jurisdictions with final Basel III fully implemented, September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>daily FX settlement settled gross bilaterally, April 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Non-bank leverage<\/td><td>hedge fund leverage near record highs and concentrated in a small number of large funds<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Settlement risk<\/td><td>36% settled through payment versus payment; 10% settled gross bilaterally<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prudential rules<\/td><td>final Basel III implementation complete in 47% of member jurisdictions; nearly complete by the first half of 2027<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resolution funding<\/td><td>about half of jurisdictions with material gaps in public sector backstops<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FIN \u2192 INF funding and settlement<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 FIN valuations<\/li><li>DAT \u2192 FIN supervision data<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>private credit exposure<\/li><li>cross-border payment progress<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Hedge fund leverage in bond markets; Basel III completion; FSB follow-up on stablecoins; AI adoption in financial institutions.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes market and rule couplings. It assesses no institution, regulator or jurisdiction and makes no forecast of markets.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Kolesar, R.J. and Spruk, R., Effect of Austerity Measures on Infant Mortality: Evidence From Greece, Health Economics 35, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). John Wiley and Sons. Observation year 2020 (study period 2010 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Federspiel, F., Borghi, J., Tarp Jensen, H., Mbaye, E.M. et al., Influence of public external debt on government health expenditure: a mixed-methods case study of Senegal, PLOS Global Public Health 6, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2023 (debt and health statistics 1970 to 2023; interviews 2019 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.biodiversity-loss\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Biodiversity loss<\/a> will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Network for Greening the Financial System (ed.), NGFS climate scenarios for central banks and supervisors; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. NGFS, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: adoption status of the standards as of 30 September 2026 (implementation page). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Public sector backstop funding: peer review of jurisdictions, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>14 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Net interest per dollar of public debt, developing countries, 2025<\/td><td>995 \u00f7 35,000<\/td><td>\u22482.8%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Gap between advanced and emerging debt ratios, 2025<\/td><td>108.2 \u2212 73.7 percentage points<\/td><td>34.5 percentage points<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Gap between IMF and World Bank growth projections for 2026<\/td><td>3.1 \u2212 2.5 percentage points (different bases)<\/td><td>\u22480.6 percentage points<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Share of remittances to low and middle income economies, 2025<\/td><td>703.6 \u00f7 925.6 USD billion<\/td><td>\u224876%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Finance and Economy Sector Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-GS05-FINANCE \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent the global financial and economic system and its couplings to food, health, nature and the other core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of systems<\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the coupled reading of debt, markets and public services.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>47 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 finance and economy annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Finance and Economy Sector Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Output and inflation<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>semiannual<\/td><td>IMF April 2027 outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Government debt ratios<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>semiannual<\/td><td>next outlook update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Developing-country interest<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next A World of Debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Investment flows<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jul 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next World Investment Report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Official reserves<\/td><td>2026 Q2<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>next COFER release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Non-bank holdings<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jun 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next Annual Economic Report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bond yields<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Policy rates<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Sep 2026<\/td><td>on each change<\/td><td>next ECB decision<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Settlement risk<\/td><td>Apr 2025<\/td><td>Jun 2026<\/td><td>triennial<\/td><td>next Triennial Survey<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Account ownership<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>triennial<\/td><td>next Findex<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Output and prices<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>one world basis for growth and inflation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Public debt<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>world aggregate on one basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Markets and leverage<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>private credit; yield levels at close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Reserves and currencies<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>currency valuation effects<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Investment and trade<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>trade volume outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Inclusion and remittances<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>remittance costs by corridor<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Insurance and protection<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>insured losses and protection gaps<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resilience<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>tested capabilities beyond rule adoption<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Government debt on one global basis<\/td><td>IMF world aggregate for general government gross debt; BIS and IIF series<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the IMF data service returned no world aggregate for the debt ratio; the IIF figure covers all sectors and is not comparable<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sovereign bond yield levels at the evidence close<\/td><td>central bank and market data; World Bank monthly note<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the note gives the direction and a decade-high comparison but not the yield levels; the data service of the US central bank was not reachable<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Euro area inflation after December 2025<\/td><td>ECB Data Portal harmonised index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the series returned by the portal ended in December 2025 at retrieval; no 2026 inflation value is used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Private credit market size and losses<\/td><td>FSB, ECB and Federal Reserve work on private credit<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the reports describe vulnerabilities but no consolidated global figure was opened<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Stablecoin supply at the evidence close on one basis<\/td><td>FSB note on global stablecoin arrangements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>; BIS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the BIS gives a figure for end-May 2026; the FSB data table was not extracted; not mixed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF Global Financial Stability Report and Fiscal Monitor of October 2026<\/td><td>IMF publications<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>publication pages returned access denied; no figure from them is used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Insured natural catastrophe losses and protection gaps<\/td><td>reinsurer and insurer research<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>publisher page returned access denied; no figure used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate scenarios for financial supervisors<\/td><td>Network for Greening the Financial System scenarios<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>publisher page returned access denied; no figure used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World trade volume outlook for 2026 and 2027<\/td><td>WTO trade outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the page tried was not found; the IMF data service gives export volume growth but not the WTO view<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cross-border payment progress against the G20 targets<\/td><td>FSB annual progress report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the report was not located; the programme page gave no figures<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Remittance costs by corridor<\/td><td>World Bank remittance price data<\/td><td>not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Official development assistance in 2026<\/td><td>OECD preliminary and final data<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>not yet published; the OECD site returned access denied; the 2025 fall is taken from the UN forum outcome<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Utility and irrigation finance, by region<\/td><td>development banks and national statistics offices<\/td><td>no consolidated global series found at evidence close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Household debt service by country<\/td><td>central banks and the BIS<\/td><td>not consolidated; not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs beyond rule adoption<\/td><td>regulators, supervisors, treasuries<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the International Monetary Fund. The October 2026 vintage carries a publication date of 13 October 2026 in the dataset record and was retrieved through the IMF data service, with the April 2026 vintage [3] for comparison. Semiannual. Role: binds FIN-001 and FIN-002. The IMF pages were closed to the editors, so the database is the opened source.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-GS05-001<\/h3><p>IMF World Economic Outlook database<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Compiled by UNCTAD from national and international debt statistics. Annual. Role: binds FIN-003 and HLT-008. The key statistics were read on the report page; the full report and data file were not opened.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-GS05-002<\/h3><p>UNCTAD A World of Debt 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-GS05-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-GS05-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>all economies in the IMF database; world aggregates for growth and prices only<\/td><td>developing countries as grouped by UNCTAD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 9 months after the year for 2025 estimates<\/td><td>about 9 months after the year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>two vintages in 2026 shown for world growth<\/td><td>annual edition; no revision notice read<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>database metadata published<\/td><td>indicator definitions published<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>compared with the World Bank series<\/td><td>compiled from national and creditor data<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>IMF<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>: world aggregate for the debt ratio on one basis<\/li><li>BIS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>: data tables behind the Annual Economic Report<\/li><li>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>: country data file for interest and revenue<\/li><li>ECB<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup>: inflation series after December 2025<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>finance and economy, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>AE<\/td><td>advanced economies<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BCBS<\/td><td>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIS<\/td><td>Bank for International Settlements<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>COFER<\/td><td>Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EMDE<\/td><td>emerging market and developing economies<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FDI<\/td><td>foreign direct investment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FSB<\/td><td>Financial Stability Board<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IIF<\/td><td>Institute of International Finance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF<\/td><td>International Monetary Fund<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NBFI<\/td><td>non-bank financial institution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ODA<\/td><td>official development assistance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>PvP<\/td><td>payment versus payment<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-GS05-SOV-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Market and payment-system notes<\/td><td>cards for the major shared bond markets and payment <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><td>WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: net interest on public debt<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>interest paid on public debt less interest received, in current US dollars and as a share of government revenue<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>USD billion and share of revenue<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>issuer compilation from national and international debt statistics<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>UNCTAD A World of Debt 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>national definitions of public debt and revenue differ<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>does not show the maturity, currency or holder structure of the debt<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Institute of International Finance (ed.), Global Debt Monitor, edition of 23 September 2026 (headline statement on the issuer\u2019s listing page; the report and data file were not opened). IIF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (first half). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Letter from the FSB Chair to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors and note on global stablecoin arrangements, October 2026 (publication page; the attached documents were not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma research on natural catastrophe losses and protection gaps; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Network for Greening the Financial System (ed.), NGFS climate scenarios for central banks and supervisors; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. NGFS, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Trade Organization (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2026; the page tried was not found and no figure from it is used. WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), G20 Implementation Monitoring Review: 2026 report, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Development co-operation preliminary data on official development assistance in 2025; the OECD site returned access denied and no figure from it is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E\/FFDF\/2026\/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>World output growth (IMF)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">3.5<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World output growth (World Bank)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.9<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World output growth projection (IMF)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">3.1<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World output growth projection (World Bank)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.5<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World inflation, IMF average consumer prices<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">4.1<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World inflation, World Bank consumer prices<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">3.0<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Advanced-economy government gross debt<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">108.2<\/span><\/td><td>% of GDP<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emerging and developing economy government gross debt<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">73.7<\/span><\/td><td>% of GDP<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Euro area government gross debt<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">87.7<\/span><\/td><td>% of GDP<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Developing-country public debt<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">35<\/span><\/td><td>USD trillion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Developing-country net interest<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">995<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Median interest share of government revenue<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">8.1<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Non-bank share of advanced-economy sovereign debt<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">53<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US dollar share of allocated reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">56.7<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2026 Q2<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Foreign direct investment<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.6<\/span><\/td><td>USD trillion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Remittances received, world<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">925.6<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adults with an account<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">79<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External debt service, low and middle income<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">13.1<\/span><\/td><td>% of exports<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Euro area deposit facility rate<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.50<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0AWorld%20output%20growth%20(IMF)%2C3.5%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AWorld%20output%20growth%20(World%20Bank)%2C2.9%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0AWorld%20output%20growth%20projection%20(IMF)%2C3.1%2C%25%2C2026%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B2%5D%0AWorld%20output%20growth%20projection%20(World%20Bank)%2C2.5%2C%25%2C2026%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B5%5D%0A%22World%20inflation%2C%20IMF%20average%20consumer%20prices%22%2C4.1%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0A%22World%20inflation%2C%20World%20Bank%20consumer%20prices%22%2C3.0%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0AAdvanced-economy%20government%20gross%20debt%2C108.2%2C%25%20of%20GDP%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AEmerging%20and%20developing%20economy%20government%20gross%20debt%2C73.7%2C%25%20of%20GDP%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AEuro%20area%20government%20gross%20debt%2C87.7%2C%25%20of%20GDP%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B20%5D%0ADeveloping-country%20public%20debt%2C35%2CUSD%20trillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0ADeveloping-country%20net%20interest%2C995%2CUSD%20billion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0AMedian%20interest%20share%20of%20government%20revenue%2C8.1%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0ANon-bank%20share%20of%20advanced-economy%20sovereign%20debt%2C53%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AUS%20dollar%20share%20of%20allocated%20reserves%2C56.7%2C%25%2C2026%20Q2%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0AForeign%20direct%20investment%2C1.6%2CUSD%20trillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0A%22Remittances%20received%2C%20world%22%2C925.6%2CUSD%20billion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0AAdults%20with%20an%20account%2C79%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B8%5D%0A%22External%20debt%20service%2C%20low%20and%20middle%20income%22%2C13.1%2C%25%20of%20exports%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0AEuro%20area%20deposit%20facility%20rate%2C2.50%2C%25%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B19%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" 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20%22%5B19%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Shares are rounded as published. IMF and World Bank growth and inflation series use different weights and vintages, and both are shown where they differ<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Projections are labelled SCENARIO. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SYS<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">AIC<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>IMF World Economic Outlook database<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>semiannual<\/td><td>growth, inflation, debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Bank Global Economic Prospects<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>semiannual<\/td><td>growth outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIS Annual Economic Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental bank<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>debt, markets, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNCTAD World Investment Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>investment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNCTAD A World of Debt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>developing countries<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>public debt, interest<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF COFER<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>reserves<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Federal Reserve Financial Stability Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national central bank<\/td><td>United States<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>semiannual<\/td><td>vulnerabilities<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ECB Financial Stability Review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>regional central bank<\/td><td>euro area<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>semiannual<\/td><td>stability<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurostat government finance statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics agency<\/td><td>euro area<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Findex<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>triennial<\/td><td>inclusion<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading: finance and economy across ten clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading: finance and economy across ten clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td>public debt of USD 40.5 trillion; hedge fund leverage near records<\/td><td>bond markets, banks<\/td><td>US Treasury<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup>; Federal Reserve<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>foreign direct investment up 14% to USD 188 billion<\/td><td>investment, banks<\/td><td>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>policy rate at 2.50%; euro area debt 87.7% of GDP<\/td><td>banks, bond markets<\/td><td>ECB<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup>; Eurostat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>not bound at this baseline<\/td><td>not bound<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td>region worst affected by the conflict in the World Bank outlook<\/td><td>trade, budgets<\/td><td>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>foreign direct investment about USD 70 billion; interest above health or education for 65% of people<\/td><td>budgets, health<\/td><td>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>fastest growing developing region; foreign direct investment up 44%<\/td><td>investment, trade<\/td><td>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>; UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>China\u2019s direct investment in ASEAN rose from USD 10 billion in 2017 to over USD 34 billion in 2024<\/td><td>investment, supply chains<\/td><td>BIS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>trade diversion and investment links with East Asia<\/td><td>trade, investment<\/td><td>BIS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>not bound at this baseline<\/td><td>not bound<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Market card: advanced-economy sovereign bond markets<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">sovereign<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">repo<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">non-bank<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">cross-border<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>banks, hedge funds, funds, insurers, pension funds, central banks<\/dd><dt>Defining facts<\/dt><dd>non-bank share of holdings 44% in 2021 and 53% in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; hedge fund leverage near records<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>FIN \u2192 HLT budgets; FIN \u2192 INF funding; ENE \u2192 FIN rates<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>central bank backstops and supervisory reviews<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>holder detail by country; repo funding volumes<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>F-01 \u00b7 F-03<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Hedge funds finance government bond positions through repo, often supplied by banks, so a funding squeeze can force sales across markets [1].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">MARKET<\/h3><p>Funding dependence<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Government bond liquidity can be ample for long periods and vanish abruptly, which makes fiscal space shrink before debt reaches long-run limits [1].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">SECURITY<\/h3><p>Liquidity<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Central banks publish regular reviews of these vulnerabilities and of the role of non-banks [17] [18].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">LEARNING<\/h3><p>Public stability reviews<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Market cards are generated for the major shared bond markets and payment <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> with the regional Baseline Editions. The advanced-economy sovereign card is shown first because its structure is documented in several public reviews.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the finance and economy edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the finance and economy edition through the economy and finance chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the finance and economy edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>19 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page and Chapter 1 highlights, The Global Outlook). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (projections, with 2025 outcomes). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Eurostat (ed.), Government deficit\/surplus, debt and associated data (table gov_10dd_edpt1, euro area EA20, general government, percentage of GDP; updated 21 October 2026), retrieved through the Eurostat data service. European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (record date 2 November 2026), retrieved through the Fiscal Data service. US Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-05-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\">Global Finance and Economy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>15 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>47 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026: From resilience to robustness? (chapters I to III), Basel, 28 June 2026. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (with events of early 2026). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, current vintage with a publication date of 13 October 2026 (world, advanced economy and emerging market and developing economy aggregates and selected country series), retrieved through the IMF data service; released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook database, April 2026 vintage (world aggregates), retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2025 (estimates, with projections to 2027). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves (COFER), quarterly series to the second quarter of 2026, retrieved through the IMF data service. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (second quarter). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page and Chapter 1 highlights, The Global Outlook). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026 (projections, with 2025 outcomes). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Global Monthly, October 2026 (global financial conditions, commodity and activity notes; data to 23 October 2026); released after the 30 September evidence close and cited as the position at access. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators database, last updated 8 October 2026 (world and income-group series for output growth, consumer prices, remittances, external debt stocks and service, retrieved through the World Bank data service). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025 (2024 for external debt). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), The Global Findex Database 2025 (landing page and summary statements: account ownership, savings, emergency funds, disaster exposure). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), World Investment Report 2026: overview (PDF, 7 July 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (report page with key statistics; the full report and data file were not opened). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (regional shares 2023; the year of the 51-country and 3.7 billion people counts is not stated on the page). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Institute of International Finance (ed.), Global Debt Monitor, edition of 23 September 2026 (headline statement on the issuer\u2019s listing page; the report and data file were not opened). IIF, Washington. Observation year 2026 (first half). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Bank for International Settlements (ed.), BIS Quarterly Review, June 2026 (article: Uncovering FX settlement risk, new measures from the 2025 BIS Triennial Survey). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2025 (April survey). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Letter from the FSB Chair to G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors and note on global stablecoin arrangements, October 2026 (publication page; the attached documents were not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Sound practices for the responsible adoption of artificial intelligence (AI): final report, October 2026 (publication page); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), Public sector backstop funding: peer review of jurisdictions, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Financial Stability Board (ed.), G20 Implementation Monitoring Review: 2026 report, October 2026 (publication page; the report was not opened); released after the 30 September evidence close. FSB, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System (ed.), Financial Stability Report, May 2026 (overview and leverage sections; data as of 23 April 2026). Federal Reserve Board, Washington. Observation year 2025 (fourth-quarter data). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (overview and special features). ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Central Bank (ed.), ECB Data Portal, key interest rates (deposit facility rate and main refinancing operations rate, dates of change to 16 September 2026; harmonised index series), retrieved through the ECB data service. ECB, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Eurostat (ed.), Government deficit\/surplus, debt and associated data (table gov_10dd_edpt1, euro area EA20, general government, percentage of GDP; updated 21 October 2026), retrieved through the Eurostat data service. European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (record date 2 November 2026), retrieved through the Fiscal Data service. US Treasury, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: adoption status of the standards as of 30 September 2026 (implementation page). BIS, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Union (ed.), Regulation (EU) 2022\/2554 of the European Parliament and of the Council on digital operational resilience for the financial sector (DORA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2022 (consolidated text read on the legal-acts portal; applies from 17 January 2025). Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS Sustainability Disclosure Standards developed by the International Sustainability Standards Board (information page; the individual standards were not opened). IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release for September 2026. FAO, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>United Nations Inter-agency Task Force on Financing for Development (ed.), Financing for Sustainable Development Report 2026: Implementing the Sevilla Commitment (report page; the full report was not opened). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>United Nations Economic and Social Council (ed.), Draft intergovernmentally agreed conclusions and recommendations of the forum on financing for development follow-up, E\/FFDF\/2026\/L.1, as adopted on 24 April 2026, advance unedited version. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025 (ODA outcome) and 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Jackson, M.O. and Pernoud, A., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 systemic-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Risk that the failure or disruption of parts of an interconnected system propagates through its dependencies to impair the functioning of the whole, often beyond the sector or place where it began. It arises from\u2026\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/glossary\/systemic-risk\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Forum glossary\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/cross-stream-practicum\/\" data-tal=\"Cross-Stream Practicum\">Systemic Risk<\/a> in Financial Networks: A Survey, arXiv preprint 2012.12702, December 2020 (the preprint states that it is forthcoming in the Annual Review of Economics; the published version was not opened). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Bardoscia, M., Battiston, S., Caccioli, F. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: A microscopic foundation for shock propagation, arXiv preprint 1504.01857, version 2, June 2015 (preprint read; the journal version was not opened). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Agarwala, M., Burke, M., Klusak, P., Kraemer, M., Volz, U. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.biodiversity-loss\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Decline in the variety and abundance of species and habitats that weakens services such as pollination, fisheries and soil formation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Biodiversity loss<\/a> will decrease the future creditworthiness of nations, Nature Ecology and Evolution 10, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Springer Nature. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Federspiel, F., Borghi, J., Tarp Jensen, H., Mbaye, E.M. et al., Influence of public external debt on government health expenditure: a mixed-methods case study of Senegal, PLOS Global Public Health 6, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2023 (debt and health statistics 1970 to 2023; interviews 2019 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Kolesar, R.J. and Spruk, R., Effect of Austerity Measures on Infant Mortality: Evidence From Greece, Health Economics 35, 2026 (open-access full text read through the PubMed Central service). John Wiley and Sons. Observation year 2020 (study period 2010 to 2020). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: International Monetary Fund (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, October 2026; the IMF publication page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. IMF, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Development co-operation preliminary data on official development assistance in 2025; the OECD site returned access denied and no figure from it is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Trade Organization (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics 2026; the page tried was not found and no figure from it is used. WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma research on natural catastrophe losses and protection gaps; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Network for Greening the Financial System (ed.), NGFS climate scenarios for central banks and supervisors; the publisher page returned access denied and no figure from it is used. NGFS, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023\/1114 of the European Parliament and of the Council on markets in crypto-assets (MiCA), Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; the legal-acts portal did not return the text. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory; no figure is used. BIS, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Financial Action Task Force (ed.), The FATF Recommendations, current consolidated text; the publisher site returned access denied and no figure from it is used. FATF, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Sevilla Commitment, outcome document of the Fourth International Conference on Financing for Development, Sevilla, 30 June to 3 July 2025, cited from the forum outcome [27]; the document itself was not opened. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Acemoglu, D., Ozdaglar, A. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., Systemic Risk and Stability in Financial Networks, American Economic Review, 2015, cited from memory; only a bibliographic record of the 2013 working paper version was checked. American Economic Association. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Battiston, S., Puliga, M., Kaushik, R., Tasca, P. and Caldarelli, G., DebtRank: Too central to fail? Financial networks, the FED and systemic risk, Scientific Reports 2, 2012, cited from memory; no figure is used. Springer Nature. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly, Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory; no figure is used. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S1 General Requirements for Disclosure of Sustainability-related Financial Information and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures, June 2023, cited from memory; no figure is used. IFRS Foundation, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-ref-47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026, chapter 3 (government debt in emerging market and developing economies; full report PDF opened). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Global Finance and Economy Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Global Sector Series GS-05<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 finance and economy edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-gs-05-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-gs-05-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-SECTOR-FINANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-SEC-GS-05-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Global Finance and Economy; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Finance%20and%20Economy\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Finance%20and%20Economy&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Finance%20and%20Economy\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Finance%20and%20Economy\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Finance%20and%20Economy\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Global Finance and Economy, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Global Finance and Economy for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Global Finance and Economy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\u2019s Financial and Economic System..&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Global Finance and Economy&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Global Sector Report \u00b7 GS-05&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-05\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Global Finance and Economy&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Global Sector Report \u00b7 GS-05&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-gs-05-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-05-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>GS-05 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Global Finance and Economy 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-05 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Global Finance and Economy.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Global Sector Risk and Resilience<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. 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