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\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\"><style>#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-gs-07-full.nxe{display:block;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:1180px;margin:0 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svg{display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-gs-07-full.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-gs-07-full.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-gs-07-full.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Global Climate Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\u2019s Climate and Earth System.<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GS-07<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Global Sector Risk and Resilience<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Global Climate 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Global Climate Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\u2019s Climate and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth System<\/a>. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Climate sets the terms for the other systems<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. A strong El Ni\u00f1o on a 1.5 \u00b0C background<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\">Global Climate 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>The world enters 2027 with a climate that is warmer than in any year before 2023, still warming, and about to be pushed higher by a strong El Ni\u00f1o. 2025 was the third-warmest year in the ERA5 record at 1.47 \u00b0C above the pre-industrial level, and 2023 to 2025 was the first three-year period above 1.5 \u00b0C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Human-induced warming reached 1.37 \u00b0C in 2025 and is rising by about 0.27 \u00b0C a decade<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Carbon dioxide averaged 423.9 ppm in 2024 on the WMO network, 52% above the pre-industrial level; the 2025 annual value was not bound at the close<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup>. Fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise about 1.0% in 2025, and the remaining budget for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 \u00b0C is 170 GtCO2 in the Global Carbon Budget and 130 GtCO2 in the Indicators of Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a>, three to four years at current emissions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. More than 91% of the excess heat is in the ocean, which reached a record heat content in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. August 2026 was 1.65 \u00b0C above the pre-industrial level, the 12-month mean to August was 1.48 \u00b0C, and NOAA gives a chance above 90% of a very strong El Ni\u00f1o in the northern fall and winter of 2026 to 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup>. Impacts are concentrated. 2025 was one of the driest years for rivers in more than three decades<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>, modelled heat deaths in 854 European cities reached 430,365 over 2000 to 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup>, and 645 million people faced hunger in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup>. Climate finance reached USD 1.9 trillion in 2023, with adaptation at USD 65 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It ranks no country and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the climate baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">2025 was 1.47 \u00b0C above pre-industrial in ERA5, third-warmest on record.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How warm is the world?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes. Human-induced warming is 1.37 \u00b0C and rising about 0.27 \u00b0C a decade.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is it still warming?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide reached records; CO2 averaged 423.9 ppm in 2024 on the WMO network.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Are gases still rising?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 130 to 170 GtCO2 for a 50% chance of 1.5 \u00b0C, three to four years at current emissions.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How much carbon budget is left?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">More than 91% is in the ocean, at a record in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Where is the heat?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Heat deaths, river deficits and hunger fall hardest on older people, exposed workers and low-income regions.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Who bears the impacts?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">119 countries report multi-hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>; only 43% of small island developing States do.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> in place?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A strong El Ni\u00f1o on a 1.5 \u00b0C background. SCN-GS07-ELN-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">From the start of 2026, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 \u00b0C is 170 GtCO2 in the Global Carbon Budget and 130 GtCO2 in the Indicators of Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a>.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-fig1-t\">Remaining carbon budget for 1.5 \u00b0C, 50% likelihood, from 2026 (GtCO2)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Global Carbon Budget 2025<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">170<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"76.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">130<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Sources: Friedlingstein et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>; Forster et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">The two assessments agree that the budget is nearly exhausted: about 4 years at the 2025 emissions level in one, a little more than 3 years in the other. They differ by 40 GtCO2, and each issuer states its own method. The budget can also change by about 200 GtCO2 depending on how far non-CO2 emissions fall<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.47<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">\u00b0C<\/span><p>above pre-industrial, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.37<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">\u00b0C<\/span><p>human-induced warming, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">423.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">ppm<\/span><p>carbon dioxide, 2024, WMO network<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">170<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">GtCO2<\/span><p>remaining budget for 1.5 \u00b0C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">645<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>facing hunger, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">119<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">countries<\/span><p>with multi-hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading climate as the condition layer of the WEFH+B system.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people climate risk arrives as a hotter summer, a failed harvest or a flooded street.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Event losses are rising, adaptation finance is small beside mitigation finance and the carbon budget is nearly used.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The climate system is well measured at the level of global indicators and thinly measured at the level of regional impacts, adaptation spending and tested capability.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the 2026 state of the world\u2019s climate and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> and the couplings through which it carries risk into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a ranking of countries, a forecast of weather, a projection of any national outcome, an attribution of any single event or an assessment of any government, company or negotiating position. Climate policy and adaptation rest with national authorities, regulators and the parties to the climate treaties.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 climate edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381\/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.24381\/b3nm-p354\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.24381\/b3nm-p354<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth System<\/a> Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Climate change and health, fact sheet (12 October 2023). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Opened: fact sheet. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early Warning<\/a> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cs-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\">Global Climate 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Climate sets the terms for the other systems<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is climate risk concentrated?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry climate shocks into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which climate capabilities hold under compound stress?<\/li><li>What must 2027 evidence measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five coupling chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Climate is usually reported as a temperature: one number for each year. The 2026 evidence reads it as the condition under which water, food, health, nature and the economy operate. A warmer ocean changes rainfall, a warmer atmosphere changes heat exposure, and both change what a harvest, a river or a clinic can bear<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The warming is large and still rising. 2025 was 1.47 \u00b0C above the pre-industrial level in ERA5, the three years 2023 to 2025 averaged 1.52 \u00b0C, and human-induced warming reached 1.37 \u00b0C at 0.27 \u00b0C a decade<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are at record levels<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The budget is nearly spent. For a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 \u00b0C, 170 GtCO2 remain in the Global Carbon Budget and 130 GtCO2 in the Indicators of Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a>, three to four years of emissions at the 2025 level<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Most of the excess heat, more than 91%, sits in the ocean<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Impacts are concentrated and compounding. 2025 was one of the driest years for rivers in more than three decades, modelled heat deaths across European cities have risen with warming, and 645 million people faced hunger<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup>. A strong El Ni\u00f1o is now developing on top of this background<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-fig1-t\">Where does the excess heat go? Share of the extra energy held by the climate system (%)<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">The surface temperature that people feel is about 1% of the excess energy. The ocean holds more than 91%, which buffers land temperatures now and commits the ocean to warming and sea-level rise for centuries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Ocean<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">91<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Land<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"5.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">5<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Ice melt and warming<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"3.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">3<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Atmosphere<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"1.1\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">cm<\/span><p>sea level above the 1993 start of the satellite record, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">11.0 to 12.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">ZJ a year<\/span><p>ocean heating rate, 2005 to 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">29<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of human CO2 absorbed by the ocean, 2015 to 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">90<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of ocean surface with a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.marine-heatwave\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of unusually warm sea water that stresses reefs, fish and kelp and fuels storms and rain.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">marine heatwave<\/a> in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The climate-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for their climate content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydropower and cooling in dry years<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">rain-fed and irrigated crops<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">floods, scarcity and water-borne disease<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">river flow and wetlands<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping and treatment<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">cold chains and pumping<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">cooling and clinic power in heat<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">mining and land use<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">withdrawals<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bioenergy<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hunger and nutrition<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">catchments<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">biomass<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination and soils<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">River deficits and heat cut crop and pasture output.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> 2025 river deficits<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>; strong El Ni\u00f1o 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Heat waves raise deaths among older people and outdoor workers.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> Europe 2022 and 2000 to 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 INF \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Storms and fires destroy assets and strain public budgets.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> Jamaica and Los Angeles 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 BIO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Ocean heat and acidification push reefs past thresholds.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> reefs at 1.4 \u00b0C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>; acidification<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 FOO \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Weather extremes raise <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> and malnutrition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> hunger projections omit El Ni\u00f1o<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup>; extremes and food<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381\/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.24381\/b3nm-p354\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.24381\/b3nm-p354<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth System<\/a> Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Findlay, H.S. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Ocean Acidification<\/a>: Another <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 planetary-boundary\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A precautionary limit on a human pressure on a key Earth-system process, such as climate, biosphere integrity, nutrient flows, freshwater, land, novel entities, aerosols or ocean chemistry, beyond which the risk of\u2026\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Planetary Boundary<\/a> Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111\/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.70238\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1111\/gcb.70238<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\">Global Climate 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the climate baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>21 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">From the start of 2026, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 \u00b0C is 170 GtCO2 in the Global Carbon Budget and 130 GtCO2 in the Indicators of Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a>.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-fig1-t\">Remaining carbon budget for 1.5 \u00b0C, 50% likelihood, from 2026 (GtCO2)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Global Carbon Budget 2025<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">170<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"76.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">130<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Sources: Friedlingstein et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>; Forster et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The two assessments agree that the budget is nearly exhausted: about 4 years at the 2025 emissions level in one, a little more than 3 years in the other. They differ by 40 GtCO2, and each issuer states its own method. The budget can also change by about 200 GtCO2 depending on how far non-CO2 emissions fall<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The next Global Carbon Budget, the 2026 emissions estimate and the next annual indicators update would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Climate forcing<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">2025 was the third-warmest year in ERA5 at 1.47 \u00b0C above pre-industrial, with 2023 to 2025 averaging 1.52 \u00b0C; WMO gives about 1.43 \u00b0C, and human-induced warming reached 1.37 \u00b0C at a rate of 0.27 \u00b0C a decade.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">August 2026 was 1.65 \u00b0C above pre-industrial and the 12-month mean to August was 1.48 \u00b0C; NOAA gives a chance above 90% of a very strong El Ni\u00f1o in the northern fall and winter of 2026 to 2027.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Global carbon dioxide averaged 423.9 ppm in 2024 on the WMO network, 52% above pre-industrial; methane at 1942 ppb and nitrous oxide at 338.0 ppb were also at record levels. The 2025 annual values are not bound at the close.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The remaining budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 \u00b0C is 170 GtCO2 in the Global Carbon Budget and 130 GtCO2 in the Indicators of Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a>, both from the start of 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">More than 91% of the excess heat is stored in the ocean, ocean heat content was a record in 2025, global sea level was about 11 cm above its 1993 level, and the 2025 Arctic winter maximum was the lowest on record.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Fossil CO2 emissions were 37.8 GtCO2 in 2024, up 1.1%, and are projected up about 1.0% in 2025; EDGAR gives 53.2 GtCO2e of all greenhouse gases in 2024, excluding land use.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Water<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">2025 was one of the driest years for river discharge in more than three decades, and the past seven years have had the fewest rivers with normal flow since 1991.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Health<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Modelled heat deaths in 854 European cities were 430,365 over 2000 to 2025, with the attributed share rising from 39% in 2000 to 68% in 2025; the 2022 summer alone was estimated at 61,672 heat deaths in Europe.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Food<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, down about 14 million on 2024, and the five-year projections do not include El Ni\u00f1o effects in 2026 and 2027.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Climate finance reached USD 1.9 trillion in 2023, of which adaptation was USD 65 billion and mitigation USD 1,780 billion.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Biodiversity<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Warm-water coral reefs are crossing a thermal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h28\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.climate-state.abrupt-regime-shift\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Climate-state shifts\" data-td=\"A threshold crossing in a large climate-system component, such as an ocean circulation or a rainforest, that changes regional climate quickly and may not reverse.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H28\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">tipping point<\/a> at 1.4 \u00b0C of warming, and six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.9<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a strong El Ni\u00f1o that coincides with record warmth, river deficits and food stress in exposed regions. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth System<\/a> Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381\/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.24381\/b3nm-p354\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.24381\/b3nm-p354<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (ed.), GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4), global land-ocean annual table. NASA, New York. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia (eds.), HadCRUT5 analysis, global annual summary series. Met Office, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026 to 2035, press release of 28 May 2026 (Met Office as lead centre). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (predictions for 2026 to 2030). Opened: press release; the full update was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Crippa, M. et al., GHG emissions of all world countries 2025 (JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 40443). European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2024. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, 2023. DOI 10.1126\/sciadv.adh2458. Observation year 2023. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.adh2458\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1126\/sciadv.adh2458<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 \u00b0C <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-warming\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The rise in global average surface temperature relative to a pre-industrial baseline, the headline indicator of human-driven climate change.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global warming<\/a> could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, 2022. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Findlay, H.S. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Ocean Acidification<\/a>: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111\/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.70238\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1111\/gcb.70238<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\">Global Climate 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CLI \u00b7 Climate<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Global surface air temperature above pre-industrial (ERA5)<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.47<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">\u00b0C<\/span><p>third-warmest year; 2023 to 2025 mean 1.52 \u00b0C.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>C3S<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CLI \u00b7 Greenhouse gases<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Global carbon dioxide concentration (WMO network)<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">423.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">ppm<\/span><p>52% above pre-industrial; the 2025 annual value is not bound at the close.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>WMO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Emissions<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Fossil CO2 emissions, with 2025 projected up about 1.0%<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">37.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">GtCO2<\/span><p>with land use, 42.4 GtCO2.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>GCB<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CLI \u00b7 Ocean<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Share of excess heat stored in the ocean<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;91<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>ocean heat content at a record in 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>WMO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HLT \u00b7 Health<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Modelled heat deaths, 854 European cities, 2000 to 2025<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">430,365<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p>just over half attributed to human-induced warming.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>Barnes et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Cross-system<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Chance of a very strong El Ni\u00f1o in the northern fall and winter of 2026 to 2027<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;90<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>NOAA outlook of 10 September 2026.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>NOAA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through climate, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries climate risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>2025 was one of the driest years for rivers in more than three decades; the past seven years had the fewest normal flows since 1991.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Fossil CO2 emissions 37.8 GtCO2 in 2024, projected up about 1.0% in 2025; the supply and demand side is read in the energy edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>645 million faced hunger in 2025; the projections omit El Ni\u00f1o effects in 2026 and 2027.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Modelled heat deaths of 430,365 in 854 European cities over 2000 to 2025; 1.2 billion workers face workplace heat risk.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Warm-water coral reefs crossing a thermal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h28\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.climate-state.abrupt-regime-shift\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Climate-state shifts\" data-td=\"A threshold crossing in a large climate-system component, such as an ocean circulation or a rainforest, that changes regional climate quickly and may not reverse.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H28\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">tipping point<\/a>; six of nine planetary boundaries transgressed.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2194 BIO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>The core system: 1.47 \u00b0C above pre-industrial in 2025, record gases, nearly spent budget.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Storm, fire and flood damage: <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h2\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.cyclone.tropical-cyclone\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Cyclonic storm systems\" data-td=\"A warm-core rotating storm over tropical oceans whose winds, rain and surge threaten coasts and inland river basins.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H2\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/disaster-risk-reduction\/\" data-tal=\"Disaster Risk Reduction\">Hurricane<\/a> Melissa damage equal to 41% of Jamaica\u2019s GDP; over USD 60 billion for the Los Angeles fires.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>USD 1.9 trillion of climate finance in 2023, adaptation USD 65 billion; losses from events are not on one basis.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2194 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Long observing records underpin every indicator; programme continuity is threatened by funding decisions.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2192 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>Machine-learning forecasting and compute demand both touch the climate system; evidence is not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2194 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Mitigation and adaptation technologies draw on minerals; the evidence is not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2194 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Trade carries climate shocks into food and goods markets; the evidence is not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on climate, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>climate sets conditions for all five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>concurrent extremes<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>one of the driest years for rivers in 35 years<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>swings between deficit and flood<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>fossil CO2 projected up about 1.0% in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heat-driven demand<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food<\/td><td>645 million facing hunger in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o and weather extremes<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>modelled heat deaths in 854 European cities<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heat waves; dengue<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td>USD 1.9 trillion of climate finance in 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>uninsured event losses<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>3.3 to 3.6 billion in highly vulnerable contexts<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>compounding disasters<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>human-induced warming of 1.37 \u00b0C in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>overshoot of 1.5 \u00b0C<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>119 countries report <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> systems<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>cascading losses<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h2\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.cyclone.tropical-cyclone\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Cyclonic storm systems\" data-td=\"A warm-core rotating storm over tropical oceans whose winds, rain and surge threaten coasts and inland river basins.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H2\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/disaster-risk-reduction\/\" data-tal=\"Disaster Risk Reduction\">Hurricane<\/a> Melissa damage equal to 41% of Jamaica\u2019s GDP<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>coastal and flood damage<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>heat deaths in 854 European cities<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>urban heat<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>reefs crossing a thermal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h28\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.climate-state.abrupt-regime-shift\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Climate-state shifts\" data-td=\"A threshold crossing in a large climate-system component, such as an ocean circulation or a rainforest, that changes regional climate quickly and may not reverse.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H28\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">tipping point<\/a> at 1.4 \u00b0C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ocean heat and acidification<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>observing programmes threatened by funding decisions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>continuity of missions<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>no consolidated evidence in this edition<\/td><td>loss of warning services<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>194 Parties to the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>overshoot and ambition gap<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>twelve indicator sets tracked each year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>next IPCC assessment<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381\/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.24381\/b3nm-p354\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.24381\/b3nm-p354<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth System<\/a> Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early Warning<\/a> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>, Paris, 12 December 2015 (status page). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026 (status at access). Opened: status page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c3-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\">Global Climate 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four climate risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS07-CLI-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Overshoot of 1.5 \u00b0C and rising extremes<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>record greenhouse gas concentrations and a developing strong El Ni\u00f1o<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>all regions; coasts, cities, outdoor workers<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in highly vulnerable contexts<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a>, heat plans, cooling and shelter<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 WAT, FOO, HLT, INF<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS07-WAT-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">River deficits and swings between drought and flood<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>a more erratic water cycle and shrinking land water storage<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>irrigated farming, cities, river-fed power and transport<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>low storage; over-allocated basins<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>storage, demand management, forecasting<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>WAT \u2192 FOO, HLT, BIO<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS07-BIO-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Reef and forest tipping under warming and local stress<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>warming near 1.5 \u00b0C with non-climate stress<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>coral reefs, the Amazon, polar ice<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>thresholds are uncertain and irreversible on human timescales<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>reducing local stress such as <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> and overfishing<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>BIO \u2192 FOO, HLT, FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>5 to 10 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS07-FIN-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Protection and adaptation finance gap<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>event losses rising while adaptation finance is small beside mitigation finance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>low-income and island economies<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>limited access to affordable capital<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>public adaptation finance, insurance, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 anticipatory-action\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Actions taken ahead of a predicted hazard, on the basis of a forecast or risk analysis, to prevent or reduce its humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">anticipatory action<\/a><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>FIN \u2192 INF, HLT, FOO<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 10 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for climate at the global level.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a> has 194 Parties; emissions are still rising<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>strong global indicator series; observing programmes under funding pressure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>119 countries report multi-hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>; 43% of small island developing States<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>heat and drought plans in many countries; implementation uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>reserves against climate shocks are not consolidated here<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>emergency response in the 2025 events, with losses and displacement recorded<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>continuity under climate extremes is not consolidated here<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>recovery follows major events; outcomes are not consolidated<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>planning is widespread; most observed adaptation is small in scale and incremental<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>climate-specific support for poor households is not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>climate finance of USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation USD 65 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>the climate treaty process and the Early Warnings for All initiative<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>designated centres produce annual to decadal predictions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>skills for climate services are not consolidated; about half of countries had heat warnings for health in 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>strong indicator and attribution science with annual updates<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>IPCC (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early Warning<\/a> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>, Paris, 12 December 2015 (status page). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026 (status at access). Opened: status page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth System<\/a> Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Lan, X., Tans, P. and Thoning, K.W., Trends in globally averaged CO2, CH4 and N2O, annual mean data files (version of 9 October 2026). NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder. DOI 10.15138\/9N0H-ZH07 (CO2). Observation year 2025. Opened: data files. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15138\/9N0H-ZH07\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.15138\/9N0H-ZH07<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026 to 2035, press release of 28 May 2026 (Met Office as lead centre). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (predictions for 2026 to 2030). Opened: press release; the full update was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\">Global Climate 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">A strong El Ni\u00f1o on a 1.5 \u00b0C background<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a strong to very strong El Ni\u00f1o that peaks around the turn of 2026 to 2027 on top of record greenhouse gas levels<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>the 2023 to 2024 El Ni\u00f1o and the 2024 record year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">ocean heat release lifts global temperature; months above 1.5 \u00b0C become frequent<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2023 \u00b7 2024 \u00b7 2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">rainfall shifts: deficits in some basins, floods in others<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2023 \u00b7 2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">harvest and pasture shortfalls in exposed regions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2023 \u00b7 2024<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">heat waves and peaks of <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/biological-hazard-standards\/\">vector-borne disease<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2024 \u00b7 2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FOO \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">hunger and malnutrition rise where stocks and incomes are thin<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2024<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">event losses and relief needs strain public budgets<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01 would travel through Global Climate and Earth <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a>&#8216;s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Climate to water<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Rainfall shifts: deficits in some basins, floods in others. Analogue or source: 2023 \u00b7 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-07, scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Water to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Harvest and pasture shortfalls in exposed regions. Analogue or source: 2023 \u00b7 2024.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-07, scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Climate to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Heat waves and peaks of <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/biological-hazard-standards\/\">vector-borne disease<\/a>. Analogue or source: 2024 \u00b7 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-07, scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Food to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Hunger and malnutrition rise where stocks and incomes are thin. Analogue or source: 2024.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-07, scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Climate to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Event losses and relief needs strain public budgets. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-07, scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Global Climate 2026, scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01<\/a> (2026); Global Climate 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381\/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.24381\/b3nm-p354\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.24381\/b3nm-p354<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c5-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\">Global Climate 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The climate baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>18 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>48 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading climate as the condition layer of the WEFH+B system. Warming, gases and ocean heat are at records, the carbon budget for 1.5 \u00b0C is nearly spent, and impacts concentrate where adaptation capacity is lowest. Evidence is strongest for global indicators and weakest for regional impacts, adaptation finance and tested capability.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">CLI-001 \u00b7 CLI-005 \u00b7 WAT-007 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people climate risk arrives as a hotter summer, a failed harvest or a flooded street. The baseline asks that public debate keep the global numbers and the local consequences in view together, and say plainly which values are observed, which are modelled and which are projected.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">HLT-008 \u00b7 FOO-009 \u00b7 CLI-002<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Event losses are rising, adaptation finance is small beside mitigation finance and the carbon budget is nearly used<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-010 \u00b7 CLI-005<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The climate system is well measured at the level of global indicators and thinly measured at the level of regional impacts, adaptation spending and tested capability. The 2027 programme should bind regional hazard evidence, test the El Ni\u00f1o compound pathway and track tipping signals before thresholds are crossed.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 C-01 \u00b7 C-05<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for climate. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability exist?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests show?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What changed in the year, and what renews?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> sector desks<\/td><td>climate chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, GRA readiness, NXS standards, RA capability<\/td><td>sector editorial board<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard is a decision of the competent standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Every extreme of 2025 was a water event, a food event and a health event at once. Treating climate as an environmental topic understates how it carries risk between systems. This edition asks where a climate shock goes next.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>Climate is a condition, not a sector<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Two peer-reviewed assessments put the remaining 1.5 \u00b0C budget at 130 and 170 GtCO2. The gap between them is smaller than one year of emissions. What matters for planning is that both are nearly spent.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>The budget is the clock<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Every indicator in this edition rests on long observing records. The authors of the annual indicators update warn that satellite and ocean monitoring is threatened by funding decisions. Keeping the record is the first adaptation.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Measurement is infrastructure<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">A global mean hides the heat deaths of a city, the dry river of a basin and the empty granary of a region. Early warning exists in 119 countries and is thinnest in small island developing States. Closing that gap is part of the climate baseline.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Impacts are local, the numbers are global<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 global edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 climate readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 climate readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td>Climate risk state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 6 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>national chapters in preparation<\/td><td>national chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments and published guidance that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>temperature goals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Stocktake decision<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNFCCC<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2023<\/td><td>collective assessment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate Law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>binding targets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IFRS S2 climate-related disclosures<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IFRS Foundation<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>disclosure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO 14064-1<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>emissions quantification<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO 14090<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>adaptation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Early Warnings for All initiative<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> by 2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>WMO and UNDRR reported 119 countries with multi-hazard early warning systems at COP30 in November 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The 2026 edition of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report was released on 21 October 2026, after the evidence close<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 22 of 27 October 2026 reports 2025 concentrations, after the evidence close<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Updated national climate targets and the 2035 ambition gap<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Disclosure rules that adopt the IFRS S2 standard in national law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Progress to universal early warning coverage by 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers climate assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the world\u2019s climate and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>agency flagships; monitoring services; peer-reviewed climate and health literature; statistics<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Forster et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>warming, forcing, budget<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Friedlingstein et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>emissions, budget, sinks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Saunois et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>methane budget<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>warming, vulnerability<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Armstrong McKay et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>tipping thresholds<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Richardson et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>planetary boundaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findlay et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">ocean acidification<\/a> boundary<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ballester et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>heat deaths in 2022<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Barnes et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>attributed heat deaths<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zscheischler et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>compound events<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional flagships<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>State of the Global Climate 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>indicators, extremes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Climate Highlights 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>C3S<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>temperature, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h16\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 cryo.floating-ice.sea-ice\" data-tk=\"Ice and snow \u00b7 Floating ice\" data-td=\"Sea ice that closes shipping lanes, crushes hulls and platforms and cuts off coastal communities.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H16\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/cryo\/\" data-txl=\"Ice and snow\">sea ice<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Annual to Decadal Climate Update<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>five-year outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of Global Water Resources 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>rivers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Status of Multi-Hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early Warning<\/a> Systems<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO and UNDRR<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>early warning<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SOFI 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>five UN agencies<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>hunger<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>concentrations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>European State of the Climate 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>C3S and WMO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>Europe<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions Gap Report 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNEP<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>ambition gap<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation Gap Report 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNEP<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>adaptation<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Statistics, indicators and monitoring<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global annual means<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOAA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>gas concentrations; post-close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GISTEMP v4<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NASA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>temperature series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HadCRUT5<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Met Office<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>temperature series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GHG emissions of all world countries 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>JRC<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>all-gas emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Surface air temperature bulletin, August 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>C3S<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>current state<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENSO diagnostic discussion, 10 September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOAA CPC<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Surface air temperature bulletin, September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>C3S<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>post-close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENSO diagnostic discussion, 8 October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOAA CPC<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>post-close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sea Ice Today<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NSIDC<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>sea ice<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IDMC<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>displacement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Carbon pricing report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>carbon prices<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards, finance and legal instruments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>2016<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>treaty status<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IFRS S2<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IFRS Foundation<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>disclosure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Stocktake decision<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNFCCC<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>collective assessment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate Law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>binding targets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO 14064-1<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>emissions quantification<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO 14090<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>adaptation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CPI<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>finance flows<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate finance provided and mobilised<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>OECD<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>public finance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Tipping Points Report 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>University of Exeter<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>tipping risk<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate change and health<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WHO<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>health risks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lancet Countdown 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal report<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>health indicators<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Assessment Report special report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNDRR<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>disaster risk<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Warming is caused by human activity and is still rising<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are at record levels<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The ocean holds most of the excess heat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>When the long-term 1.5 \u00b0C level is crossed: C3S points to about 2029, WMO gives a 75% chance that the 2026 to 2030 mean exceeds it<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The size of the remaining budget: 170 versus 130 GtCO2<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The methane budget: bottom-up estimates exceed top-down by 16%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth System<\/a> Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>, Paris, 12 December 2015 (status page). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026 (status at access). Opened: status page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC, decision 1\/CMA.5, outcome of the first global stocktake (December 2023). Bonn. Observation year 2023. The issuer site refused automated access; cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union. Observation year 2021. The legal database page did not load; the number and title were cited from memory and should be checked against the Official Journal. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (standard page). International Sustainability Standards Board, London. Observation year 2024 (effective date). Opened: standard page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO, ISO 14064-1:2018 Greenhouse gases, part 1: specification with guidance at the organisation level for quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. The issuer site refused automated access; the title was cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO, ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. The issuer site refused automated access; the title was cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early Warning<\/a> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (ed.), Latest News listing, item of 21 October 2026 on the new UNEP Emissions Gap Report. PIK, Potsdam. Observation year 2026. Opened: news listing (a secondary source for the UNEP report). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2026 (released 21 October 2026, after the evidence close). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2026. Not opened; its release is known only from a secondary news item [33] and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 22 (27 October 2026, after the evidence close). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Nationally determined contributions synthesis report (2025). Bonn. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Saunois, M. et al., Global Methane Budget 2000 to 2020, Earth System Science Data 17, 1873 to 1958, 2025. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194\/essd-17-1873-2025. Observation year 2020 (decade 2010 to 2019). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-17-1873-2025\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-17-1873-2025<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 \u00b0C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, 2022. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, 2023. DOI 10.1126\/sciadv.adh2458. Observation year 2023. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.adh2458\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1126\/sciadv.adh2458<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Findlay, H.S. et al., Ocean Acidification: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111\/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.70238\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1111\/gcb.70238<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited from memory; the abstract was not retrieved. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381\/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.24381\/b3nm-p354\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.24381\/b3nm-p354<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026 to 2035, press release of 28 May 2026 (Met Office as lead centre). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (predictions for 2026 to 2030). Opened: press release; the full update was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>C3S and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (landing page). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Opened: landing page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target (November 2025). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. The issuer site refused automated access; figures were seen only in search summaries and are not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Lan, X., Tans, P. and Thoning, K.W., Trends in globally averaged CO2, CH4 and N2O, annual mean data files (version of 9 October 2026). NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder. DOI 10.15138\/9N0H-ZH07 (CO2). Observation year 2025. Opened: data files. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15138\/9N0H-ZH07\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.15138\/9N0H-ZH07<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (ed.), GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4), global land-ocean annual table. NASA, New York. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia (eds.), HadCRUT5 analysis, global annual summary series. Met Office, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Crippa, M. et al., GHG emissions of all world countries 2025 (JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 40443). European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2024. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for September 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, October 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 8 October 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Sea Ice Today, analysis of 7 October 2026 (the 2026 Arctic season). University of Colorado Boulder. Observation year 2026. Opened: the Sea Ice Today front page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (ed.), 2026 Global Report on Internal Displacement. IDMC, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: report page; no global disaster displacement total was read. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries in 2013 to 2022. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2022. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Climate change and health, fact sheet (12 October 2023). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Opened: fact sheet. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet 406, December 2025. Observation year 2024. Only the bibliographic record was read; the full text was not opened and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025, special report. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\">Global Climate 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 climate agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 climate edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a strong El Ni\u00f1o on a 1.5 \u00b0C background travel through rivers, harvests and health <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> at once?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS07-ELN-01 \u00b7 El Ni\u00f1o compound test; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where do heat deaths and workplace heat risk coincide with weak health-sector <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a>?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS07-HET-02 \u00b7 heat and health; first output: exposure table by region.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which river basins show repeated below-normal flow, and which systems depend on them?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS07-RIV-03 \u00b7 river deficits; first output: basin dependence map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How large is the gap between adaptation finance and adaptation need, by region?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS07-ADP-04 \u00b7 adaptation finance; first output: flow and need register.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which tipping elements have evidence of early warning signals, and where are observations thin?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS07-TIP-05 \u00b7 tipping watch; first output: signal and gap table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which observing programmes are at risk of discontinuity?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: programme overlay.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do attribution studies of events compare on method and basis?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which climate capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Climate capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 climate portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS07-ELN-01<\/span><\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o compound test<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>C-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS07-HET-02<\/span><\/td><td>Heat and health<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>C-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS07-RIV-03<\/span><\/td><td>River deficits<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>C-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS07-ADP-04<\/span><\/td><td>Adaptation finance<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>C-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS07-TIP-05<\/span><\/td><td>Tipping watch<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>C-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-GS07-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o compound test Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>C-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The climate edition reads national climate chapters, regional hazard and adaptation evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and national chapters are in preparation. This page states what exists today and what comes next.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National climate chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">climate, hazard and adaptation chapter of each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">IN PREPARATION \u00b7 national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Regional hazard evidence<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">shared basins, coasts, monsoon and storm <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 regional Baseline Editions<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Climate sector model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the global climate system of systems<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Global and strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">GLB \u00b7 SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk \u00b7 SR-12 Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Global Climate Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE DRAFT \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the climate candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the climate candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 global annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-GS07-2027-01 \u00b7 El Ni\u00f1o compound test Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead: drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>CLI-001 \u00b7 temperature<\/td><td>public record<\/td><td>reference for the 2027 series<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CLI-005 \u00b7 carbon budget<\/td><td>INI-GS07-TIP-05<\/td><td>tipping watch<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WAT-007 \u00b7 rivers<\/td><td>INI-GS07-RIV-03<\/td><td>river deficits<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HLT-008 \u00b7 heat deaths<\/td><td>INI-GS07-HET-02<\/td><td>heat and health<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FOO-009 \u00b7 hunger<\/td><td>INI-GS07-ELN-01<\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o compound test<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-010 \u00b7 finance<\/td><td>INI-GS07-ADP-04<\/td><td>adaptation finance<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIO-011 \u00b7 tipping<\/td><td>regional consortia<\/td><td>tipping signal overlay<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-GS07-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CODES ARE NOT JOINS<\/p><p>Series codes in this edition (GS-07 and its relatives) are Reports codes. Codes in other indices can look alike. This edition makes no join on a code alone: a join needs a registry record that names both subjects.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Surface air temperature bulletin<\/td><td>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>CLI-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trends in greenhouse gases<\/td><td>NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory<\/td><td>monthly and annual<\/td><td>CLI-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Greenhouse Gas Bulletin<\/td><td>World Meteorological Organization<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENSO diagnostic discussion<\/td><td>NOAA Climate Prediction Center<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>CLI-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h16\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 cryo.floating-ice.sea-ice\" data-tk=\"Ice and snow \u00b7 Floating ice\" data-td=\"Sea ice that closes shipping lanes, crushes hulls and platforms and cuts off coastal communities.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H16\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/cryo\/\" data-txl=\"Ice and snow\">Sea Ice<\/a> Today<\/td><td>National Snow and Ice Data Center<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>CLI-006<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Carbon Budget<\/td><td>Global Carbon Project<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI-005<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of Global Water Resources<\/td><td>World Meteorological Organization<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>WAT-007<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-GS07-001<\/td><td>August 2026 was 1.65 \u00b0C above pre-industrial<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>CLI<\/td><td>research question C-01<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-GS07-002<\/td><td>A strong El Ni\u00f1o is strengthening into early 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 WAT \u00b7 FOO<\/td><td>research question C-01<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-GS07-003<\/td><td>Antarctic sea ice at record daily lows from October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 BIO<\/td><td>initiative C-05<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h16\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 cryo.floating-ice.sea-ice\" data-tk=\"Ice and snow \u00b7 Floating ice\" data-td=\"Sea ice that closes shipping lanes, crushes hulls and platforms and cuts off coastal communities.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H16\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/cryo\/\" data-txl=\"Ice and snow\">Sea Ice<\/a> Today, analysis of 7 October 2026 (the 2026 Arctic season). University of Colorado Boulder. Observation year 2026. Opened: the Sea Ice Today front page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c7-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\">Global Climate 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Climate and water<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Climate sets the rainfall, the evaporation and the ice that feed rivers. The 2025 and 2026 records show a more erratic water cycle: long runs of below-normal river flow, falling land water storage and ice loss.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">years<\/span><p>of the fewest rivers with normal flow since 1991<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">years<\/span><p>of glacier loss in every major glaciated region<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">8 of 10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">years<\/span><p>of largest glacier loss since 2016<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>River flow<\/td><td>2025 was one of the driest years for river discharge in more than three decades<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Land water storage<\/td><td>storage on land has decreased over the past ten years<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Glaciers<\/td><td>mass loss among the five worst on record in the 2024 to 2025 hydrological year<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water-related disasters<\/td><td>Asia and Africa had at least half of events and over 80% of deaths in five years<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 WAT rainfall and flow<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 WAT ice and snow storage<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 FOO irrigation and crops<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>groundwater storage by region<\/li><li>basin-level dependence of other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>River flow against the 1991 to 2020 norm during the 2026 to 2027 El Ni\u00f1o; glacier balance in the next hydrological year; snow and ice in high mountain basins.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-08 Disaster and Resilience<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes physical couplings. It assesses no basin authority, utility or government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Climate and food<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Food depends on rainfall, temperature and the timing of seasons. Hunger has eased for three years, but the projections leave out the effect of the strong El Ni\u00f1o now developing.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">645<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>people facing hunger, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>moderately or severely food insecure, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">56.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of Africa\u2019s population moderately or severely food insecure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Hunger<\/td><td>7.8% of the world faced hunger in 2025, down from 8.1% in 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Food insecurity<\/a><\/td><td>25.8% moderately or severely food insecure; highest in Africa<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Projections<\/td><td>about 510 to 520 million facing hunger in 2030; El Ni\u00f1o effects not included<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Extreme weather<\/td><td>cascading effects on harvests, displacement and pests<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 FOO rainfall and heat<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 FOO irrigation<\/li><li>FOO \u2192 HLT nutrition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>the share of hunger attributable to climate<\/li><li>harvest effects of the 2026 El Ni\u00f1o<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Harvest assessments during the 2026 to 2027 El Ni\u00f1o; the next SOFI report; hunger hotspots in Africa.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-08 Disaster and Resilience<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes physical couplings. It makes no statement on any country\u2019s agricultural or trade policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Climate and health<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Heat, floods, storms and shifting disease ranges act on health directly and through food, water and livelihoods. The evidence is strongest for heat.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">430,365<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p>modelled heat deaths, 854 European cities, 2000 to 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">61,672<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> in Europe, summer 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>workers face workplace heat risk each year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Heat deaths<\/td><td>just over half of the modelled burden attributed to human-induced warming; the share rose from 39% to 68%<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Vulnerability<\/td><td>3.6 billion people live in areas highly susceptible; death rates from extreme events 15 times higher in vulnerable regions<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Disease<\/td><td>dengue is the fastest-growing mosquito-borne disease, with record reported cases<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Warning<\/td><td>only about half of countries gave heat warnings tailored to health in 2023<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 HLT heat and disease<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 HLT floods and scarcity<\/li><li>FOO \u2192 HLT nutrition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>global heat deaths on one basis<\/li><li>health-facility resilience to extremes<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Summer peaks in the northern hemisphere; dengue seasons during the 2026 to 2027 El Ni\u00f1o; the next health and climate indicators report.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-08 Disaster and Resilience<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Health-system planning rests with national authorities and WHO. No personal health data are used or shown in Reports.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Climate and nature<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Nature sets thresholds that climate can cross. Reefs, ice sheets, forests and ocean chemistry show the clearest evidence. Nature is not reduced to a single number in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">\u00b0C<\/span><p>warming at which warm-water coral reefs cross a thermal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h28\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.climate-state.abrupt-regime-shift\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Climate-state shifts\" data-td=\"A threshold crossing in a large climate-system component, such as an ocean circulation or a rainforest, that changes regional climate quickly and may not reverse.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H28\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">tipping point<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">6 of 9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">boundaries<\/span><p>planetary boundaries transgressed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">29<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of human CO2 absorbed by the ocean, 2015 to 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Coral reefs<\/td><td>crossing a thermal tipping point and experiencing unprecedented dieback<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ocean chemistry<\/td><td>average ocean conditions inside the uncertainty range of the acidification boundary by 2020<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Planetary boundaries<\/td><td>six of nine transgressed in the 2023 update<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tipping thresholds<\/td><td>several may be triggered between 1.5 and below 2 \u00b0C<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 BIO thresholds<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 CLI carbon sinks<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 BIO mining and land use<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>threshold ranges with confidence levels<\/li><li>ecosystem effects of the 2026 El Ni\u00f1o<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Reef bleaching reports; Antarctic and Arctic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h16\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 cryo.floating-ice.sea-ice\" data-tk=\"Ice and snow \u00b7 Floating ice\" data-td=\"Sea ice that closes shipping lanes, crushes hulls and platforms and cuts off coastal communities.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H16\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/cryo\/\" data-txl=\"Ice and snow\">sea ice<\/a> through the 2026 to 2027 season; the land and ocean carbon sinks in the next carbon budget.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-08 Disaster and Resilience<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Biodiversity is not reduced to a single number. Where valuation is used later, it will never be presented as the whole value.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Climate, infrastructure and extremes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Extremes meet the built environment and public budgets. The 2025 events show losses that are large against national output, and warning <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> that are not yet universal.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">41<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of Jamaica\u2019s GDP in physical damage from <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h2\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.cyclone.tropical-cyclone\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Cyclonic storm systems\" data-td=\"A warm-core rotating storm over tropical oceans whose winds, rain and surge threaten coasts and inland river basins.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H2\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/disaster-risk-reduction\/\" data-tal=\"Disaster Risk Reduction\">Hurricane<\/a> Melissa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;60<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>estimated losses from the Los Angeles fires, the largest for a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">43<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of small island developing States with <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> systems<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Hurricane Melissa<\/td><td>physical damage estimated at USD 8.8 billion, 41% of Jamaica\u2019s GDP<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Los Angeles fires<\/td><td>over USD 60 billion in estimated losses; more than 260,000 displaced<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Flood events<\/td><td>1,037 flood-related deaths in Pakistan; 253 deaths in the Philippines from one typhoon<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Early warning<\/td><td>119 countries report multi-hazard systems; 43% of small island developing States<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 INF storm, fire and flood damage<\/li><li>INF \u2192 FIN losses and budgets<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 FIN adaptation and protection finance<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>losses from extremes on one basis<\/li><li>infrastructure exposure to extremes by region<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The Atlantic and Pacific storm seasons during the El Ni\u00f1o; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h24\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> seasons; the 2027 target for universal early warning.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-08 Disaster and Resilience<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes physical and financial couplings. It assesses no state, insurer or company and makes no forecast of losses.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a> in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Climate change and health, fact sheet (12 October 2023). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Opened: fact sheet. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, 2023. DOI 10.1126\/sciadv.adh2458. Observation year 2023. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.adh2458\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1126\/sciadv.adh2458<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Findlay, H.S. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Ocean Acidification<\/a>: Another <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 planetary-boundary\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A precautionary limit on a human pressure on a key Earth-system process, such as climate, biosphere integrity, nutrient flows, freshwater, land, novel entities, aerosols or ocean chemistry, beyond which the risk of\u2026\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Planetary Boundary<\/a> Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111\/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.70238\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1111\/gcb.70238<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 \u00b0C <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-warming\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The rise in global average surface temperature relative to a pre-industrial baseline, the headline indicator of human-driven climate change.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global warming<\/a> could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, 2022. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\">Global Climate 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>14 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>21 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Difference between the two 1.5 \u00b0C budgets, from 2026<\/td><td>170 \u2212 130 GtCO2<\/td><td>40 GtCO2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Difference between the ERA5 and WMO estimates of 2025 warming<\/td><td>1.47 \u2212 1.43 \u00b0C<\/td><td>0.04 \u00b0C<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Difference between the August 2026 value and the 12-month mean to August, ERA5<\/td><td>1.65 \u2212 1.48 \u00b0C<\/td><td>0.17 \u00b0C<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Sum of the heat shares: ocean, land, ice and atmosphere<\/td><td>91 + 5 + 3 + 1<\/td><td>100%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Climate Sector Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-GS07-CLIMATE \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent the global climate system and its couplings to water, food, health and biodiversity<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the coupled reading of climate and its impacts.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 climate annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Climate Sector Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global temperature<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jan 2026, updated 28 Jan 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next summary in January 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gas concentrations<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Oct 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>2025 values not bound at the close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions and budget<\/td><td>2024, with 2025 projected<\/td><td>May 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next Global Carbon Budget<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Human-induced warming<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jun 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next indicators update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ocean heat and sea level<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Mar 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next State of the Global Climate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Current temperature<\/td><td>Aug 2026<\/td><td>Sep 2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>El Ni\u00f1o state<\/td><td>Sep 2026<\/td><td>Sep 2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>River discharge<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Sep 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next water report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunger<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jul 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next SOFI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate finance<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>Jun 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next Global Landscape in 2026<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Temperature and gases<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>regional detail<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions and budget<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>method differences<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ocean and ice<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>values for 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water cycle<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>groundwater and regional detail<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>global heat deaths on one basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>climate-attributed share of hunger<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>adaptation flows after 2023<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resilience<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>tested capabilities beyond <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global annual temperature for 2026<\/td><td>C3S annual summary and WMO State of the Global Climate for 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the year was incomplete at evidence close; the January to August position is cited from the C3S bulletin<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ocean heat content and sea level for 2026<\/td><td>WMO State of the Global Climate for 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>; annual indicators update<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>not yet published; annual products appear in 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions for 2026<\/td><td>Global Carbon Budget 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>not yet published; the 2025 value is a projection<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Headline values of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 and 2026 from a primary document<\/td><td>UNEP Emissions Gap Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the issuer site refused automated access; only a secondary news item was read<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Effects of the 2026 El Ni\u00f1o on harvests, rivers and health<\/td><td>FAO, WMO and WHO reports after the event<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the event is under way; SOFI projections omit it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global heat deaths on one basis<\/td><td>peer-reviewed global heat mortality studies; Lancet Countdown<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the Lancet report was not opened; European estimates are not global<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Losses from 2025 and 2026 extremes on one basis<\/td><td>insurers, development banks and national agencies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>estimates use different definitions; the UNDRR report was not opened<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation finance flows after 2023 and need by region<\/td><td>CPI 2026 landscape; UNEP Adaptation Gap Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the 2026 landscape is not yet issued; the UNEP report was not opened<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Public climate finance provided and mobilised, from a primary document<\/td><td>OECD climate finance report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the issuer site refused automated access<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Carbon prices and coverage<\/td><td>World Bank carbon pricing report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the issuer site refused automated access; no figure used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National climate targets in the 2035 round<\/td><td>UNFCCC NDC synthesis report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the issuer site refused automated access; no figure used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Groundwater storage by region<\/td><td>WMO water report data tables<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>; national agencies<\/td><td>the full report was not opened; only the key messages were read<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 tipping-element\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A large component of the Earth system, such as an ice sheet, ocean circulation or major forest, that can pass a tipping point and change state with global consequences.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Tipping element<\/a> thresholds with confidence ranges<\/td><td>Global Tipping Points Report full report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the full report PDF was not opened; only the key messages were read<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs beyond early warning<\/td><td>ministries, agencies and operators<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the Copernicus Climate Change Service at ECMWF (published January 2026, updated 28 January 2026) from the ERA5 reanalysis. Annual. Role: binds CLI-001 and the sea-ice readings.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-GS07-001<\/h3><p>C3S Global Climate Highlights 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Compiled by the Global Carbon Project and published in a peer-reviewed data journal (May 2026). Annual. Role: binds ENE-004 and CLI-005. The 2025 values are preliminary.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-GS07-002<\/h3><p>Global Carbon Budget 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-GS07-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-GS07-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>global coverage from 1940; five other datasets compared<\/td><td>all emission sources and sinks; land-use emissions remain uncertain<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 2 weeks after the year<\/td><td>about 5 months after the year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>figures updated on 28 January 2026<\/td><td>living data update each year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>data and methods published<\/td><td>methods and data published<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>compared with five other datasets<\/td><td>multiple independent approaches compared<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>WMO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>: indicator data tables behind the annual report<\/li><li>Global Carbon Project<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>: regional emissions tables<\/li><li>NOAA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>: monthly gas series<\/li><li>C3S<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup>: the monthly bulletin series for 2026<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>climate, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>C3S<\/td><td>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CO2<\/td><td>carbon dioxide<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EDGAR<\/td><td>Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENSO<\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o-Southern Oscillation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ERA5<\/td><td>fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GtCO2e<\/td><td>gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NDC<\/td><td>nationally determined contribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ppm<\/td><td>parts per million<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG<\/td><td>Sustainable Development Goal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SOFI<\/td><td>The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WMO<\/td><td>World Meteorological Organization<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ZJ<\/td><td>zettajoule<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-GS07-ELN-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Regional hazard notes<\/td><td>cards for the major monsoon, storm, basin and coastal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><td>WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: global surface temperature above the pre-industrial level<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>global mean near-surface air temperature relative to the 1850 to 1900 average<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>degrees Celsius<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>reanalysis or merged observation datasets, offset to the 1850 to 1900 level<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>C3S Global Climate Highlights 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>datasets differ by about 0.1 \u00b0C; WMO gives \u00b10.13 \u00b0C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>a single year is not the long-term warming level; the pre-industrial offset is an estimate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381\/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.24381\/b3nm-p354\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.24381\/b3nm-p354<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth System<\/a> Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target (November 2025). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. The issuer site refused automated access; figures were seen only in search summaries and are not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2026 (released 21 October 2026, after the evidence close). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2026. Not opened; its release is known only from a secondary news item [33] and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (ed.), Latest News listing, item of 21 October 2026 on the new UNEP Emissions Gap Report. PIK, Potsdam. Observation year 2026. Opened: news listing (a secondary source for the UNEP report). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet 406, December 2025. Observation year 2024. Only the bibliographic record was read; the full text was not opened and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2025, special report. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries in 2013 to 2022. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2022. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Nationally determined contributions synthesis report (2025). Bonn. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Lan, X., Tans, P. and Thoning, K.W., Trends in globally averaged CO2, CH4 and N2O, annual mean data files (version of 9 October 2026). NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder. DOI 10.15138\/9N0H-ZH07 (CO2). Observation year 2025. Opened: data files. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15138\/9N0H-ZH07\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.15138\/9N0H-ZH07<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\">Global Climate 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>10 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global surface air temperature above pre-industrial, ERA5<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.47<\/span><\/td><td>\u00b0C<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global temperature, WMO consolidated estimate<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.43<\/span><\/td><td>\u00b0C<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Human-induced warming<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.37<\/span><\/td><td>\u00b0C<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rate of human-induced warming<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">0.27<\/span><\/td><td>\u00b0C a decade<\/td><td>2016 to 2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Carbon dioxide, WMO network<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">423.9<\/span><\/td><td>ppm<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Methane, WMO network<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1,942<\/span><\/td><td>ppb<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nitrous oxide, WMO network<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">338.0<\/span><\/td><td>ppb<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fossil CO2 emissions<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">37.8<\/span><\/td><td>GtCO2<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>All-gas emissions excluding land use, EDGAR<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">53.2<\/span><\/td><td>GtCO2e<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Remaining budget for 1.5 \u00b0C, Global Carbon Budget<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">170<\/span><\/td><td>GtCO2<\/td><td>from 2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Remaining budget for 1.5 \u00b0C, indicators update<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">130<\/span><\/td><td>GtCO2<\/td><td>from 2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sea level above the 1993 start of the record<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u224811<\/span><\/td><td>cm<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Excess heat stored in the ocean<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&gt;91<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People facing hunger<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">645<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate finance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.9<\/span><\/td><td>USD trillion<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation finance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">65<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Countries with multi-hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">119<\/span><\/td><td>countries<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>August 2026 above pre-industrial, ERA5<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.65<\/span><\/td><td>\u00b0C<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chance of a very strong El Ni\u00f1o, northern fall and winter 2026 to 2027<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&gt;90<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0A%22Global%20surface%20air%20temperature%20above%20pre-industrial%2C%20ERA5%22%2C1.47%2C%C2%B0C%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Global%20temperature%2C%20WMO%20consolidated%20estimate%22%2C1.43%2C%C2%B0C%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AHuman-induced%20warming%2C1.37%2C%C2%B0C%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0ARate%20of%20human-induced%20warming%2C0.27%2C%C2%B0C%20a%20decade%2C2016%20to%202025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0A%22Carbon%20dioxide%2C%20WMO%20network%22%2C423.9%2Cppm%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B31%5D%0A%22Methane%2C%20WMO%20network%22%2C%221%2C942%22%2Cppb%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B31%5D%0A%22Nitrous%20oxide%2C%20WMO%20network%22%2C338.0%2Cppb%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B31%5D%0AFossil%20CO2%20emissions%2C37.8%2CGtCO2%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B6%5D%0A%22All-gas%20emissions%20excluding%20land%20use%2C%20EDGAR%22%2C53.2%2CGtCO2e%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B12%5D%0A%22Remaining%20budget%20for%201.5%20%C2%B0C%2C%20Global%20Carbon%20Budget%22%2C170%2CGtCO2%2Cfrom%202026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B6%5D%0A%22Remaining%20budget%20for%201.5%20%C2%B0C%2C%20indicators%20update%22%2C130%2CGtCO2%2Cfrom%202026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0ASea%20level%20above%20the%201993%20start%20of%20the%20record%2C%E2%89%8811%2Ccm%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AExcess%20heat%20stored%20in%20the%20ocean%2C%3E91%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0APeople%20facing%20hunger%2C645%2Cmillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B26%5D%0AClimate%20finance%2C1.9%2CUSD%20trillion%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B20%5D%0AAdaptation%20finance%2C65%2CUSD%20billion%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B20%5D%0ACountries%20with%20multi-hazard%20early%20warning%20systems%2C119%2Ccountries%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B25%5D%0A%22August%202026%20above%20pre-industrial%2C%20ERA5%22%2C1.65%2C%C2%B0C%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B47%5D%0A%22Chance%20of%20a%20very%20strong%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%2C%20northern%20fall%20and%20winter%202026%20to%202027%22%2C%3E90%2C%25%2C2026%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B48%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Global%20Climate%20Risk%20and%20Resilience%20Report%202026%3A%20Baseline%20Edition%2C%20The%20State%20of%20the%20World%E2%80%99s%20Climate%20and%20Earth%20System.%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20surface%20air%20temperature%20above%20pre-industrial%2C%20ERA5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.47%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%C2%B0C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20temperature%2C%20WMO%20consolidated%20estimate%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.43%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%C2%B0C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Human-induced%20warming%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.37%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%C2%B0C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Rate%20of%20human-induced%20warming%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%220.27%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%C2%B0C%20a%20decade%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222016%20to%202025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Carbon%20dioxide%2C%20WMO%20network%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22423.9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ppm%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B31%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Methane%2C%20WMO%20network%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221%2C942%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ppb%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B31%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Nitrous%20oxide%2C%20WMO%20network%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22338.0%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ppb%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B31%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Fossil%20CO2%20emissions%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2237.8%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22GtCO2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B6%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22All-gas%20emissions%20excluding%20land%20use%2C%20EDGAR%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2253.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22GtCO2e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B12%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Remaining%20budget%20for%201.5%20%C2%B0C%2C%20Global%20Carbon%20Budget%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22170%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22GtCO2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22from%202026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B6%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Remaining%20budget%20for%201.5%20%C2%B0C%2C%20indicators%20update%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22130%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22GtCO2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22from%202026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Sea%20level%20above%20the%201993%20start%20of%20the%20record%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%8811%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22cm%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Excess%20heat%20stored%20in%20the%20ocean%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3E91%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20facing%20hunger%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22645%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B26%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Climate%20finance%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20trillion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B20%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Adaptation%20finance%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2265%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B20%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Countries%20with%20multi-hazard%20early%20warning%20systems%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22119%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22countries%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B25%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22August%202026%20above%20pre-industrial%2C%20ERA5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.65%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%C2%B0C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B47%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Chance%20of%20a%20very%20strong%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%2C%20northern%20fall%20and%20winter%202026%20to%202027%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3E90%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B48%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Shares are rounded as published. Temperature series use different reference periods: ERA5 and WMO are shown against the pre-industrial level, while the NASA and Met Office series use their own baselines and are used here for ordering only<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>. Forecast values are labelled SCENARIO. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>C3S Global Climate Highlights 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>operational climate service<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>temperature, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h16\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 cryo.floating-ice.sea-ice\" data-tk=\"Ice and snow \u00b7 Floating ice\" data-td=\"Sea ice that closes shipping lanes, crushes hulls and platforms and cuts off coastal communities.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H16\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/cryo\/\" data-txl=\"Ice and snow\">sea ice<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WMO State of the Global Climate 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>indicators<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>gas concentrations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Carbon Budget 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>research consortium<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024 to 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>emissions, budget<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicators of Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>research consortium<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>warming, forcing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GISTEMP and HadCRUT5<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national climate centres<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>temperature series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>C3S monthly bulletin<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>operational climate service<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>current state<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NOAA ENSO discussion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national weather service<\/td><td>tropical Pacific<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WMO water resources report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>rivers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CPI climate finance landscape<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>think tank<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>finance flows<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading: climate across ten clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading: climate across ten clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> and storm losses; heat in the south-west<\/td><td>cities, insurance, forests<\/td><td>Los Angeles fires over USD 60 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>Amazon dieback risk; drought<\/td><td>forests, rivers, power<\/td><td>tipping risk<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>warming about twice the global average; heat deaths<\/td><td>health, cities, rivers<\/td><td>C3S<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; heat deaths<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>Arctic warming; permafrost and fires<\/td><td>ice, infrastructure<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/hydrometeorological-hazard-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/energy-nexus\/\" data-tal=\"Energy Nexus\">extreme heat<\/a>; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">water scarcity<\/a><\/td><td>health, water<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>hunger and displacement; drought and flood<\/td><td>food, health, households<\/td><td>hunger 309 million<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup>; water events<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>monsoon floods; heat<\/td><td>crops, cities, health<\/td><td>Pakistan 1,037 flood deaths<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>extreme rainfall and flooding<\/td><td>cities, crops<\/td><td>northern China rainfall 160% above average<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h2\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.cyclone.tropical-cyclone\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Cyclonic storm systems\" data-td=\"A warm-core rotating storm over tropical oceans whose winds, rain and surge threaten coasts and inland river basins.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H2\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/disaster-risk-reduction\/\" data-tal=\"Disaster Risk Reduction\">typhoon<\/a> and flood losses<\/td><td>cities, ports, farms<\/td><td>Philippines typhoon, 253 deaths<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>reef stress; island exposure<\/td><td>reefs, coasts, islands<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> in 43% of small island developing States<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Indicator card: the 1.5 \u00b0C level<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">temperature<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Paris Agreement<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">overshoot<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">El Ni\u00f1o<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>water, food, health, nature, infrastructure<\/dd><dt>Defining events<\/dt><dd>first three-year mean above 1.5 \u00b0C, 2023 to 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 WAT drought and flood; CLI \u2192 HLT heat; CLI \u2192 BIO thresholds<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>annual indicator updates and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>how the long-term level is defined and measured<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>C-01 \u00b7 C-05<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">A year above 1.5 \u00b0C is not a breach of the long-term level; the level refers to warming sustained over about 20 years [4] [1].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">LEVEL<\/h3><p>Single years and long-term warming<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">C3S uses three methods and all give about 1.4 \u00b0C at the end of 2025 [1]; the indicators update gives 1.37 \u00b0C human-induced [7].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">METHOD<\/h3><p>Several ways to measure<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">C3S points to about 2029 on a 30-year trend, WMO gives a 75% chance that the 2026 to 2030 mean exceeds 1.5 \u00b0C [1] [4].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">TIMING<\/h3><p>Different crossing dates<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Indicator cards are generated for the main climate indicators and regional hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> with the regional Baseline Editions. The 1.5 \u00b0C card is shown first because its definition is the most contested.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the climate edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the climate edition through the climate chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the climate edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>19 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381\/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.24381\/b3nm-p354\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.24381\/b3nm-p354<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth System<\/a> Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Crippa, M. et al., GHG emissions of all world countries 2025 (JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 40443). European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2024. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early Warning<\/a> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (ed.), GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4), global land-ocean annual table. NASA, New York. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia (eds.), HadCRUT5 analysis, global annual summary series. Met Office, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-07-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\">Global Climate 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>15 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>48 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381\/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.24381\/b3nm-p354\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.24381\/b3nm-p354<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026 to 2035, press release of 28 May 2026 (Met Office as lead centre). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (predictions for 2026 to 2030). Opened: press release; the full update was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Lan, X., Tans, P. and Thoning, K.W., Trends in globally averaged CO2, CH4 and N2O, annual mean data files (version of 9 October 2026). NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder. DOI 10.15138\/9N0H-ZH07 (CO2). Observation year 2025. Opened: data files. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.15138\/9N0H-ZH07\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.15138\/9N0H-ZH07<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth System<\/a> Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3211-2026<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-18-3889-2026<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (ed.), GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4), global land-ocean annual table. NASA, New York. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia (eds.), HadCRUT5 analysis, global annual summary series. Met Office, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Saunois, M. et al., Global Methane Budget 2000 to 2020, Earth System Science Data 17, 1873 to 1958, 2025. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194\/essd-17-1873-2025. Observation year 2020 (decade 2010 to 2019). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5194\/essd-17-1873-2025\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5194\/essd-17-1873-2025<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Crippa, M. et al., GHG emissions of all world countries 2025 (JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 40443). European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2024. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for September 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, October 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 8 October 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h16\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 cryo.floating-ice.sea-ice\" data-tk=\"Ice and snow \u00b7 Floating ice\" data-td=\"Sea ice that closes shipping lanes, crushes hulls and platforms and cuts off coastal communities.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H16\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/cryo\/\" data-txl=\"Ice and snow\">Sea Ice<\/a> Today, analysis of 7 October 2026 (the 2026 Arctic season). University of Colorado Boulder. Observation year 2026. Opened: the Sea Ice Today front page. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 \u00b0C <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-warming\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The rise in global average surface temperature relative to a pre-industrial baseline, the headline indicator of human-driven climate change.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global warming<\/a> could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, 2022. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, 2023. DOI 10.1126\/sciadv.adh2458. Observation year 2023. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1126\/sciadv.adh2458\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1126\/sciadv.adh2458<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Findlay, H.S. et al., Ocean Acidification: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111\/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1111\/gcb.70238\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1111\/gcb.70238<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Climate change and health, fact sheet (12 October 2023). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Opened: fact sheet. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-023-02419-z<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (standard page). International Sustainability Standards Board, London. Observation year 2024 (effective date). Opened: standard page. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>, Paris, 12 December 2015 (status page). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026 (status at access). Opened: status page. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (ed.), 2026 Global Report on Internal Displacement. IDMC, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: report page; no global disaster displacement total was read. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>C3S and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (landing page). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Opened: landing page. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 22 (27 October 2026, after the evidence close). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (ed.), Latest News listing, item of 21 October 2026 on the new UNEP Emissions Gap Report. PIK, Potsdam. Observation year 2026. Opened: news listing (a secondary source for the UNEP report). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target (November 2025). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. The issuer site refused automated access; figures were seen only in search summaries and are not used. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Nationally determined contributions synthesis report (2025). Bonn. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet 406, December 2025. Observation year 2024. Only the bibliographic record was read; the full text was not opened and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025, special report. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries in 2013 to 2022. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2022. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO, ISO 14064-1:2018 Greenhouse gases, part 1: specification with guidance at the organisation level for quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. The issuer site refused automated access; the title was cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO, ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to climate change, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. The issuer site refused automated access; the title was cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union. Observation year 2021. The legal database page did not load; the number and title were cited from memory and should be checked against the Official Journal. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited from memory; the abstract was not retrieved. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC, decision 1\/CMA.5, outcome of the first global stocktake (December 2023). Bonn. Observation year 2023. The issuer site refused automated access; cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2026 (released 21 October 2026, after the evidence close). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2026. Not opened; its release is known only from a secondary news item [33] and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-ref-48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Global Climate Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Global Sector Series GS-07<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 climate edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-gs-07-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-gs-07-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-SEC-GS-07-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Global Climate and Earth Systems; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Climate%20and%20Earth%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Climate%20and%20Earth%20Systems&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Climate%20and%20Earth%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Climate%20and%20Earth%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Climate%20and%20Earth%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Global Climate and Earth Systems, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Global Climate and Earth Systems for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Global Climate Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\u2019s Climate and Earth System..&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Global Climate and Earth Systems&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Global Sector Report \u00b7 GS-07&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Global Climate and Earth Systems&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Global Sector Report \u00b7 GS-07&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-gs-07-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-07-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>GS-07 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Global Climate 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-07 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Global Climate and Earth Systems.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Global Sector Risk and Resilience<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-07\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><p class=\"nx-note\" data-nr-rights=\"true\"><a class=\"nx-link\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.<\/p><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-gs-07-full-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-gs-07-full-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-gs-07-full-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/model\/scenarios\/urban-flood\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Urban flood<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/risk-information-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Risk information standards and interoperability<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/data\/identification-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Identification (the UNI)<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script><style>@media print { @page { margin: 20mm 17mm 20mm 17mm; @top-left { content: \"Nexus Reports\"; font: 500 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @top-right { content: \"Global Climate Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\\002019 s Climate and Earth System. \\0000b7  Baseline Edition 2026\"; font: 400 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Sans\", sans-serif; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-left { content: \"NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE \\0000b7  Draft, not released\"; font: 400 7pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-center { content: \"CC BY 4.0. 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