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3f8CIwreJoKRwHHRNXfc3DNWM71mKy3t5exrop26P5rHHY0mUqm1lVsbKWnnDQTlzxbGV59ZITZ8usdKDHBDQ2iK9F6vfUB0grpmGa91nasCvrC6\/WM5U8ZNsoPOE9M9PzwMr016N2kvY8ZRIAMURhHkVJtB4N1b2Bpu5pnaPicwDWxQ6W04JQ8TcOCpylEWZXqobIrxvvIA0g+9sasM6amltxQL1HJloG6A0S61Ub664U1cqXwJeQqFLw6oWZiOVL1dQX6EzeKferZKHeDeaIhnycb4A2x0HQsQCeYK1i4SkVrsGZl5S4CmlJcX39kfiyGmG6vNsWrwsoV0aS2zbZITV5hLyeNQJXk6oO4qPcEy6krNhbUDDnmsRSf+mf26wvePVfpj1F0ydqrPjgZcyx0Air4vlAmKn3EciYw3pqRbDuy154olvl5p64Tw2oXgVZxmjxWvQwbHYLisLJtn3Z1erc4TLEyQPLFDlfa9IoRQIRBxn3s3hz5EO6cIdL7SnhflkOSfmtg+STpJ7mDuwBNOvFH7Df6mCEHQoizA88oPitjjNQx26tuy9\/RlhBtotD8wCEuvYFBJYNXo7yH586+EGrAtsMHdMjMBGTmW1EP0pYu4h5mVmEjzY+b7cqJzPrmvGFWDaTX7swykGP8f9RDvrZ1aGXbyap2g\/+XkUhOyp5NR3LVU4mA6OdFUZE6ZSjHSHUKJkuqSKXu88WBlUhpFe8CYDRj1THd3C+ZeiJ6hQOxp\/OneL0GSvZhWzbU0RwtIapaJ1YRNV\/GmKqhngj13dv7gFeP1PxQkVqBn5UzWhs3PVbGkFwJegEx8Bfs6CxjxC94FLxZBY4KzlU12fwmw21399wcOVPJSIycKQTrJU\/XCfyUGcdG4CPAUruHEUp2w69ttsTJZJAYgfLtyFdgGHF5pD8aFCTRTWXUZmkMLguEcAgpH7arz8FKV0g1IaIZaI\/acyeYUakBLvrOgNvJAwxRDhfCCL7lXrLflPb6K0n63wbWe7K3WK\/Nr1VH5ZtSiyuXoAU+brZ7e\/P1urL8yJlyNmguU0F8zQL+3neFy\/RDo7GR4edOQVB5aJgPhJB2DwlbVUf8BTvhRuAkWnEQuKSJrCXOfGZj0urGeVRODLMN+\/FzwuAUeMFgVju77pzMCSEL8AhbZDAGeD\/kvT6IXh8q4y7jhFuOkGXOe7zM04DE5QBNnrQCWEjzjPYv2EATI2+fCIGFDRjQMQ0949gA67xUpQ8so+YTG2SCeeV2Hvk08KQOXiGH9Xqb3y\/kF3JMRTmfZ\/EBdWKdV7i0S2SrsSSt7vJorlZjqXZ8rKVw2BOOfXgFisj+cvAjhqHsOMy4dM+9zJo8C0mMV7yxCoWl50\/zFFhcyOUlq82BUFhzBOcBTLkGZJGFJi8GVfaWAKwt\/OOu7adA0JO+V3Q78Em1BlFpolCCcb4J8wEKCxktWMjotqu7NJZIzx\/c5UWyMONWt6JKccy8QJWFCW0dEdHY06d+BlF1s1L46aa2+ragMONrMcujPxlN0HqdvTAgHrcq7HOrUz2SfZS1Wz1dsaPhVFR9p0ni+GEzGo3EuZzj2iwehbIq4UdaKVJn5fJUboUTRwsnjm\/Q5aB2\/HT7oBQXe76F9TaF\/Eqzmt3aTfLdSgiJezzXmLTDxrjrmNVRDyoC3BFFsqVIi9l7cqLVVUZKnkDPfNH\/2xv0\/\/Yse\/DPF7ha5wGB3kLJIceT5K6ulvBwFTWzVF8OLrThEzNRFmcb4X57IPCTig7h\/EmS+\/BaCAJiZfT+jGhOvNL1RmLXzJFXvG4ofkHZnovYO4b4R8FcPNgsOveX1INUFULY+ka+5bP6+63ZI+bf3urlBjfM3t7fHsYwUSvP7fFNc56AhiFslCj8vCQPMjwyszm1LfOhucQvIKasK1iZdpN\/jaOF2W5+s15C\/IfOXswasen88ytuzHm6zKM2ALUqVGkhz0CxOlcW1xTnNwJUpyAS5ClOInAW8cOxpLEPsZ+KXyxxXCp+cioqfk4pS3xXVHYhl\/ogew9pXES+xd6OQDNdNL2nzwg3Y3m4WVV2JC6P9+l2tFmmcc\/zJ0lhrluJRPw8DaRQWVQgBz5jQBAppMDd3FMtoXDIZRk2SWg6iQKvYx+81nIEfwAR5QM7mmaj\/8BFlHuaxbNNWf8D20oV\/B4qvtcrvucVp6z\/ng2emIimk\/bC3bxXMYxaoo8nUpAIbPGcyHWeqWR3+i+sgqRE6PIKOJwO1LPk1ug4m10ZTHyBBwSWoaBTyvWwOXaYAacPZT6S93oB0GDKjG\/C8+ijbtLGK\/XxquBh1LL09433tVn1uNvSx92fD17p6zWHgYJgApqlXConXFrZew9qI21ErYzcfSSt7sec3f+Y5T74CJtF2U3fgwzwcWADkKsInaT++YnQ69dl4S\/XmZlZH4p6Z31WWyZVE6X+6m8wUOX164Jk3kNfQxzv4QzlQHmfAeW9DhSoMYd6eVSqgGi23pA\/02rhxsErK5DeLydk20ugUUyceEyel8zxoFuIq83He6sO2w0JIbBWwWVHDkfYJTdH5CNE3RYqZVrMk97N0fbQ\/2kfKgxdrriZmwHDG11a0WijjLMHoYVbqXcG3WpyrWpKSo13TBz\/xTNUTIst1dGTodUL\/Kwc9A\/1dGmh4\/h+y2oPNCwv9BlhQZ\/xkCH4sP8tX7sKYbWYEXC91ssLzCcH\/pHPpjjkr3zIxS8Axa9Z91W5crkYyzREiDcLaVd5qFbBMTClZw5vU4cl\/lIXcL8DvfrOjh4yUvGd06ufqPlA+9+BwPEECLu4koqsYUNodsiO3mVkcMhk5rB3rD9kIneY\/CnuxXnO+EH3nSp6Nwszszo\/RJe3N5JZxxlr2m7lY\/oEY\/rEjk6zqX5i6qR+YeSU9j+xQdUQEsk\/cZ2yPssFtLhgR1+yWS6yFq8o+cL6C1YpCIumBOdyRXtX9GiWmWJkLd3BVWb1qFey7kihrMb6Gcb6mR19y2b\/mY\/VC81vtP9ZLcMjIygEd2WbTofUA5P8lGqqQzf3aahOMa\/GRJuTCLLSWVRnS8DbMMxZwlBBKyGsHw60e3nWa3iRWXErj4LgQKhkQCAfQSexwiXlnMf2PQV3XJ1VuC5hC79XCKscABZT+bgoZK3j1wBAigtrBDPiM2M\/mETdheCwZupC+x3Dc5IHrEwU0N6vjIh8tVoeWS1uzQATlijQC1kvZCr1eg9BU6iDAm7myf7qKaa5v8Ov4BUORMBlWLQp\/b2uZQbsOih16zgKCSqKa0vANUkAS+jX5de8DGee97hEagShlg1VsBEm94Dgc+qJuYhWOvyd+I0L9RzPK1TKy3X0Bupt+UM5UJF5sXIuqohFi3cGQLJWoa\/IBoALH0vjlPNv8jEK+OEuJ\/l1tSRUqipqTNVXvsR8x8tVhYNbOoa0cAwpHMBwSXceAukyz8vCgauzd0D5JovG44AamY5uR7INnmtjp4oRClSslVgo7jZZVvHwbV68HuWpxH2A+DpysiuPMscPOuJuL7bZZCn5fIUCEpnqnl+bmZ1\/SE8V3LIoccbco+SS0an5mCEQOMIysTpoj\/kpEGe0Jx7EthW\/RcZtPd216pNTtOqE+jr0Ja38rXBZ1x3\/dDuJFqFIZZQps\/d+Y3hVtjzL9O7C8rwL60uUtvABEyWWYbvBsLn1Uu5c8YYvoGXYsS\/3MjzLbwgXDKQqXQ\/kq0oiiA18BBf7NA4ciFbiEbgW8qdxlDCHSxmCpF3S2ttQ+IJzBo4minBOsntVMqh86l1m2cY\/FZw7P\/3omLqfsqXf+9Tb+4319i5pMZ85jPlfNXclTGgSGcdchSNNwqDGgastqhhUl4Z099emD6nIasskzpR3CUqKmjK0PBgA2L8YXv2LVd2tpV+jZW0Ff+kbtz4C7CSOqZM4oUuNaCSC0mJnDFFcMk64IioYtpU6Z4aOWrLo6Sv4lkfuPtkWP6bVTb1zkocfaIkf8uqWbvldRFpbMkQN9tG\/2NOHn4shn3q\/sZrtm23GT6V7VTMEQbLbPSZhWYz8k+282UPS2L0Sf1F3GEvog\/v1lt41p9HQD2ju3gv26xqxOmelEhL2wizzuQg8OGoftHpb7uq0mLBuBMpotJ31vCv8Yyv5ReB6m7DxQbMCPfGMsRVYogkMkV6aqy1c6gemjJJotA9F6ECmSK7JRpU3gjebP5+VAP1PVsiH\/yez2q9BBw7rpW8E2E1vE98b0+IGyd\/LyKPMmW7bGJJT1SafaJWbhyC2PfXD5kRX+etwZkrSSI6ZNfYuf+bHSDD4VZQ4zSgxRG5l95ptvoKD0kbcr\/SpN1FyWPGgKC3MJ+0Eia3w6b98Y4M46P0MPZSi5LSTBOaiWo6o+wwwhAoMiQBDqCjmTzvP809yOiNWryirzvzqCZOl4lfVlWh7I3C6LjC8BVpIanhh6\/cfG0HG13MSpd22IPZmNPE5JdS\/LOKm\/hGPGNE\/c45FiHBgNi5IXtme+Z1lu3W9Fg+iBLT2O8vKVfYrmaU4qei9QgSoG0Nl20BqQuY7PBNpqW3Fj5UBogldpb74zjlhJIFMQ\/xL96ddEvUJw907ap5IoeKv+qs3dksTZ6DYOGNHf2VahTNQbPzF+mdst0whi+ySKk62xIoyhryIUnYXxfUX+NXxmKXra7S2BMrhimW4SMa6h4hNRrXI7XlI9MuamXZ3UZfX6T6povnHIna8qR8OncQy4FwZx8Y\/81\/bT+KNmIdl9Pkp\/CcRzxDX63vZk7Y6u29IESK47ryv1EYCr4f6ZWq3px8vP9yhqi\/8jmOsTIiS6NfdihXmRJ4T8pzSi6YT7V4vfCsV3KDR5e1+pDros1WB1LD5ZUH37Bio6TyUvsTsWZGYFtV87YSIflulKrvlurI6Z1V+B51gdtg\/7dc9Hq9\/RF61esov9ZhmP48ODlvb\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\"><style>#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe{display:block;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:1180px;margin:0 auto;padding:0 16px;font-family:ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,\"Segoe UI\",sans-serif;line-height:1.55;overflow-wrap:break-word}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe :where(*,*::before,*::after){box-sizing:inherit}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe :where(section,header,footer,nav,aside){display:block;margin:0 0 32px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe :where(h1,h2,h3,h4){line-height:1.2;margin:24px 0 12px;font-weight:600}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe :where(p,ul,ol,dl,table,figure,details){margin:0 0 16px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe :where(ul,ol){padding-left:20px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe a{color:inherit;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:2px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;display:block;overflow-x:auto}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe :where(th,td){padding:6px 8px;text-align:left;vertical-align:top;border-bottom:1px solid;border-color:inherit}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe svg{display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-reg-afr-full.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Africa Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Africa\u2019s Interdependent Systems.<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">REG-AFR<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Regional Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Africa 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut NQ-REG-AFR-2026-Q0-1<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Africa Regional <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Africa\u2019s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Africa\u2019s risk travels through rivers, rains and power systems<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Failed rainy season with power and food stress across eastern and southern Africa<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\">Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>11 notes<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Africa, as the series reads it, is three member countries (South Africa, Kenya and Senegal) that sit inside a continent of shared river basins, power <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and food markets, beside a continental union with its own subject in the series. The World Bank counted 1.29 billion people in sub-Saharan Africa in 2024, of whom 64.0 million lived in South Africa, 56.4 million in Kenya and 18.5 million in Senegal<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. Electricity reached 87.7% of South Africans, 76.2% of Kenyans and 74.2% of Senegalese in 2023, against 53.3% across sub-Saharan Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>. Annual electricity use per person in 2022 was about 3,405 kWh in South Africa, 189 kWh in Kenya and 400 kWh in Senegal<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>. The WMO reports that floods in East Africa affected more than 700,000 people in 2024 and that southern African cereal yields fell 16% below the five-year average in the same drought year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. The FAO-led hunger report put 307 million Africans in hunger in 2024, more than 20% of the population<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state from sources that could be read at evidence close. Where a regional dataset could not be read, it shows as a designed empty state that names the source and the blocker. The edition decides nothing and ranks no member country.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the Africa baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">South Africa emitted 427.3 Mt of carbon dioxide in 2023, Kenya 21.3 Mt and Senegal 13.7 Mt, excluding land use.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Where do emissions stand?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Electricity reached 74.2% to 87.7% of people in the members in 2023, against 53.3% in sub-Saharan Africa.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What do people have access to?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">South Africa has had no load shedding since 16 May 2025. Continental reliability series are not bound.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How reliable is the grid?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Southern African cereal yields fell 16% below average in 2024; 307 million Africans were in hunger.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How exposed are crops and food?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">East African floods affected more than 700,000 people in 2024; the Eastern Cape floods caused at least 90 deaths by 15 June 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How severe were recent floods?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">South Africa withdrew 47.1% of its internal freshwater resources in 2022.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How much water is withdrawn?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound in this edition.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Who carries flood losses?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not bound<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A failed rainy season coinciding with a power shortfall and a food price rise across member borders. SCN-AFR-RAIN-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will Q1 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Floods in East Africa in 2024 affected more than 700,000 people in Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi, and floods in West and Central Africa affected more than four million.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-fig1-t\">People affected by floods in Africa, 2024 (million, at least)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">West and Central Africa<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">4<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">East Africa<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"17.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">0.7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: WMO State of the Climate in Africa 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. East Africa covers Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi. The Kenya share is not separated in the page opened.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">A flood season is a regional event. The same rains reach three East African states at once, and the Kenya figure cannot be read apart from its neighbours. Flood response, roads, power and cholera control therefore need to be read across borders<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">64.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>South Africa population, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">56.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Kenya population, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">18.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Senegal population, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.29<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>sub-Saharan Africa population, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">401<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>South Africa GDP at current prices, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">members<\/span><p>South Africa, Kenya, Senegal<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports a coupled reading of African risk: drought and flood act on water, energy and food together.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people risk arrives as a failed harvest, a flood or an outage.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound, and debt ratios differ widely across the members.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Africa\u2019s statistical record is thin where it matters most for risk.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the state of Africa\u2019s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in 2026 read across South Africa, Senegal, Kenya. It reads the shared basins and grids that no single member controls, and sets out the questions the operational series will answer.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a regional <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/glossary\/risk-assessment\/\" data-tgl=\"Nexus Standards glossary\">risk assessment<\/a>, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and each member\u2019s ownership of its own edition is unaffected. It does not stand for the European Union, which is a separate subject in the series.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline: new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\">Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Africa\u2019s risk travels through rivers, rains and power systems<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no member country.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>8 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is Africa\u2019s risk concentrated, and in which <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?<\/li><li>Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?<\/li><li>What must the 2027 programme measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Member system cards<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Shared basins and grids<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hub list<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Regional pathway<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>The World Bank counted 1.29 billion people in sub-Saharan Africa in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. South Africa had 64.0 million, Kenya 56.4 million and Senegal 18.5 million<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. The three members hold about 10.8% of that group. This baseline reads Africa through those three members and through the continental <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> around them, so that the reading is partial by design.<\/p><p>The forcing layer is visible in the 2024 record. Average surface temperature was about 0.86 \u00b0C above the 1991 to 2020 average, and marine heatwaves covered nearly 30 million km\u00b2 from January to April<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Southern Africa had an extreme drought, with cereal yields 16% below the five-year average<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. East African floods affected more than 700,000 people, and floods in West and Central Africa affected more than four million<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. In South Africa, the June 2025 floods in the Eastern Cape caused at least 90 deaths by 15 June and left about 2,686 people in shelters<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The food layer follows the rains. The FAO-led report counted 307 million Africans in hunger in 2024, above 20% of the population<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. The World Bank series carries 36.4% for Kenya, 10.5% for South Africa and 5.6% for Senegal in 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>. Agriculture, forestry and fishing added 22.4% of GDP in Kenya, 15.6% in Senegal and 2.8% in South Africa in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The water layer is a shared one. Africa has 63 transboundary river basins covering about 62% of its land area<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup>. The Senegal River organisation runs 400 MW of hydropower for four states<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup>. South Africa withdrew 47.1% of its internal freshwater resources in 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The energy layer is uneven. Electricity use per person in 2022 was about 3,405 kWh in South Africa and 189 kWh in Kenya<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>. Eskom reported no load shedding from 16 May 2025 and 490 consecutive days by 20 September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup>. Senegal reached first gas at the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project on 31 December 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>This edition therefore reads Africa\u2019s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask two questions: where does a shock travel next across a border, and who holds the capability to stop it?<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-fig1-t\">How far does electricity reach? Share of population with access, 2023 (%)<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">South Africa reached 87.7% of its people in 2023, Kenya 76.2% and Senegal 74.2%, against 53.3% for sub-Saharan Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>. Use per person was far lower in Kenya than in South Africa, at 189 kWh against 3,405 kWh in 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>. The group is a World Bank grouping and excludes North Africa.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">South Africa<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">87.7<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Kenya<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"86.9\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">76.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Senegal<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"84.6\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">74.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Sub-Saharan Africa<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"60.8\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">53.3<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2023.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">87.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>South Africa access, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">76.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Kenya access, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">74.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Senegal access, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">53.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>sub-Saharan Africa access, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The Africa matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydro \u00b7 thermal cooling<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">safe water \u00b7 sanitation<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 desalination<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fuel \u00b7 fertiliser \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">air pollution \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land use \u00b7 mining<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">\u224870% of withdrawals<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bioenergy feedstock<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour \u00b7 disease<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">biomass \u00b7 hydrology<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination \u00b7 soils<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses \u00b7 medicines<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Failed rains cut river flow and yields and raise hunger.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> drought 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; hunger<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 FOO \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A poor harvest raises food prices and public spending.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> yields 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; no price series bound<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Low reservoir levels cut hydropower and raise outages.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> low water at Lake Kariba reduced hydropower in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">INF \u2192 ENE \u2192 all<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Plant breakdowns cause load shedding that reaches industry and households.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> South Africa load-shedding period and recovery<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 INF \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Flooding damages roads, water and clinics and raises disease risk.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> Eastern Cape floods<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup>; no health series bound<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.4<\/span><span>Reinforcing loops<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Loop<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First direction<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Second direction<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to food: irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield<\/td><td>Food to water: \u224870% of withdrawals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to biodiversity: flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/td><td>Biodiversity to water: regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Food to biodiversity: land conversion<\/td><td>Biodiversity to food: pollination \u00b7 soils<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"3\">A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa\u2019s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacit\u00e9 hydro\u00e9lectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, F\u00e9lou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c1-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\">Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Floods in East Africa in 2024 affected more than 700,000 people in Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi, and floods in West and Central Africa affected more than four million.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-fig1-t\">People affected by floods in Africa, 2024 (million, at least)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">West and Central Africa<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">4<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">East Africa<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"17.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">0.7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: WMO State of the Climate in Africa 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. East Africa covers Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi. The Kenya share is not separated in the page opened.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">A flood season is a regional event. The same rains reach three East African states at once, and the Kenya figure cannot be read apart from its neighbours. Flood response, roads, power and cholera control therefore need to be read across borders<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Seasonal rainfall outlooks, river-flow forecasts, flood-warning exchange between states and the national loss series would each move this finding. Kenya flood deaths and displacement from the situation report are not bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Climate forcing<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Average surface temperature in Africa in 2024 was about 0.86 \u00b0C above the 1991 to 2020 average, and the past decade was the warmest on record; North Africa, outside the member set, was 1.28 \u00b0C above.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Floods in East Africa in 2024 affected more than 700,000 people in Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi, and floods in West and Central Africa affected more than four million.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Food<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-003\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Southern African cereal yields in 2024 were 16% below the five-year average in an extreme drought, with Zambia 43% below and Zimbabwe 50% below.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-004\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-FOO-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The FAO-led report counted 307 million Africans in hunger in 2024, above 20% of the population; in 2023 the World Bank series carried 36.4% for Kenya, 10.5% for South Africa and 5.6% for Senegal.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">In 2023 electricity reached 87.7% of South Africans, 76.2% of Kenyans and 74.2% of Senegalese, against 53.3% in sub-Saharan Africa.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">South Africa recorded no load shedding from 16 May 2025; Eskom reported 105 consecutive days by 29 August 2025 and 490 days by 20 September 2026, with year-to-date energy availability of 67.96%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Electricity use per person in 2022 was about 3,405 kWh in South Africa, 189 kWh in Kenya and 400 kWh in Senegal, and South Africa emitted 427.3 Mt of carbon dioxide in 2023, about 49% of the sub-Saharan Africa total of 871.0 Mt.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Water<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Africa has 63 transboundary river basins covering about 62% of its land area and holding about 90% of its surface water; the Senegal River organisation operates 400 MW of hydropower across four states.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">South Africa withdrew 47.1% of its internal freshwater resources in 2022, against 19.5% in Kenya, 11.9% in Senegal and 3.4% in sub-Saharan Africa.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Health<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Under-five mortality in 2023 was 34.8 per 1,000 in South Africa, 38.2 in Senegal and 39.6 in Kenya, against 73.2 in sub-Saharan Africa; life expectancy at birth ranged from 63.6 to 68.7 years across the members.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Biodiversity<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Terrestrial protected areas covered 26.3% of Senegal, 14.0% of Kenya and 9.5% of South Africa in 2024, against 17.0% in sub-Saharan Africa.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a failed rainy season that coincides with a power shortfall and a food price rise across member borders. \u00a79.3<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN OCHA (ed.), Kenya heavy rains and flooding, flash update 7 (19 June 2024; about 315 killed and 293,200 displaced between 1 March and 18 June 2024, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). OCHA, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacit\u00e9 hydro\u00e9lectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, F\u00e9lou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa\u2019s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 mortality-rate\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The number of deaths in a population over a period relative to its size.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Mortality rate<\/a>, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Life expectancy at birth, years (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\">Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>20 notes<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WAT \u00b7 Water<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Annual freshwater withdrawal as a share of internal resources, South Africa<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">47.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Kenya 19.5%, Senegal 11.9%, sub-Saharan Africa 3.4%. The Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years in the series.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2022<\/span><span>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Energy<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People with access to electricity, Kenya<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">76.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>South Africa 87.7%, Senegal 74.2%, sub-Saharan Africa 53.3%.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2023<\/span><span>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FOO \u00b7 Food<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Prevalence of undernourishment, Kenya<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">36.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>South Africa 10.5%, Senegal 5.6%, sub-Saharan Africa 22.1%, as carried in the World Bank series.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2023<\/span><span>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HLT \u00b7 Health<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Under-five mortality per 1,000 live births, sub-Saharan Africa<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">73.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">per 1,000<\/span><p>South Africa 34.8, Senegal 38.2, Kenya 39.6.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2023<\/span><span>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">BIO \u00b7 Biodiversity<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Terrestrial area protected, Senegal<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">26.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Kenya 14.0%, South Africa 9.5%, sub-Saharan Africa 17.0%.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Cross-system<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People affected by floods in East Africa, Kenya, Tanzania and Burundi<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">700,000<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">people<\/span><p>More than four million affected by floods in West and Central Africa in the same year.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>WMO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and borders.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Shared basins: 63 in Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup>; South Africa withdrew 47.1% of internal resources in 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT \u2192 ENE \u00b7 WAT \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Access 74.2% to 87.7% in the members in 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>; no load shedding in South Africa since 16 May 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Cereal yields 16% below average in southern Africa in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; 307 million in hunger<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2190 WAT, CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Under-five mortality 34.8 to 39.6 per 1,000 in the members in 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT \u2190 CLI, WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Protected: 9.5% to 26.3% of land in the members in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>. Condition not bound.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO \u2194 WAT, FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>Floods in 2024 affected more than 700,000 people in East Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; Eastern Cape floods in June 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">forcing on all systems<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Eskom reports no load shedding since May 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup>. Cross-border power flows not bound.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Public debt in 2025 at 78.4% of GDP in South Africa, 71.3% in Kenya and 127.7% in Senegal, on the IMF series<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2190 CLI, TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2192 ENE, FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>Data-centre and compute demand on grids and water not bound.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 ENE, WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not bound<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Mineral and fuel trade not bound at baseline.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2190 TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not bound<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Gas export from Senegal began with first gas in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup>; trade routes otherwise not bound.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>compound drought, power and food stress<\/td><td>failed rains across member borders<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>South Africa withdrew 47.1% of internal resources<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>drought on shared basins<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>no load shedding in South Africa since May 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>supply reliability<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food<\/td><td>cereal yields 16% below average in southern Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>drought and price shocks<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>under-five mortality 34.8 to 39.6 per 1,000<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>cholera and flood health risk<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td>public debt series bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>; loss series not bound<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>poverty headcount series bound for Kenya and South Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>income shocks<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>South Africa <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act of 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup>; Kenya Act of 2016<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heat, drought and flood<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>floods affected over 700,000 in East Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>compound and sequential events<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>Eskom availability statements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ageing plant and transmission<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>urban share 31.9% to 63.7% by member<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>urban flooding<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>protected area shares bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>condition not bound<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>WMO continental assessment published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>station coverage and continuity<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>dependencies not mapped<\/td><td>systemic outages<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>Agenda 2063 framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup>; national climate laws<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>coordination across levels<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>continental assessments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>translation to members<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 mortality-rate\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The number of deaths in a population over a period relative to its size.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Mortality rate<\/a>, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa\u2019s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Poverty headcount ratio at 3.00 US dollars a day (2021 PPP) (SI.POV.DDAY), South Africa (17.4, 2022), Kenya (45.5, 2022), Senegal (17.9, 2021) and Sub-Saharan Africa (45.5, 2023), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act 22 of 2024 (signed 2024; the government page returned not found). Government Gazette, Pretoria. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, No. 11 of 2016 (the page returned an access error). Kenya Law, Nairobi. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Urban population, % of total population (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. P\u00f6rtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Africa chapter. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c3-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\">Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four regional risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>4 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-AFR-CLI-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Flood and storm season across borders<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>extreme rainfall on saturated catchments<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>river corridors, informal settlements, roads<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>drainage and defence condition not bound<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>continental early-warning gaps named by WMO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 INF, HLT, FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>annual<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-AFR-WAT-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Failed rains and low flow on shared rivers<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>low rainfall and high demand<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>cereals, hydropower, urban water<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>dependence on a few reservoirs<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>basin organisations; performance not bound<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>WAT \u2192 ENE, FOO<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20135 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-AFR-FOO-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Hunger and cereal shortfall in a drought year<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>drought, flood and price shocks<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>rural households and importers<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>high prevalence of undernourishment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>national reserves and safety nets not bound<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 FOO \u2192 HLT, FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>seasonal<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-AFR-ENE-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Power shortfall or grid failure<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>plant breakdown, drought-hit hydropower or <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.fuel-supply-shock\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Sudden loss of oil, gas, coal or electricity supply that raises prices and cuts activity.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">fuel shortage<\/a><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>industry, water pumping, health services<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>reserve margin and cross-border flows not bound<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>utility recovery programme reported<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>ENE \u2192 WAT, FOO, FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20135 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>South Africa <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup> and Kenya Climate Change Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup> are in the statute record; delivery not bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>WMO continental assessment and World Bank series are published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: meteorological and flood-warning services \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved; WMO calls for inclusive early warning<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>Agenda 2063 framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup>; delivery not bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: grid reserve margin and grain reserve records \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: after-action records for flood events \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved; provincial statements exist<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>Eskom reports recovery of supply<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup>; performance beyond one utility not bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: recovery agency and insurer records \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>national climate laws apply<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup>; delivery not bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: income-support and disaster-payment records \u00b7 blocker: not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: insurer and reinsurer loss data \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved; public debt series bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>the Senegal River organisation operates for four states<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup>; performance not bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: asset-condition registers \u00b7 blocker: not published<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: health and emergency workforce registers \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>continental assessments are published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacit\u00e9 hydro\u00e9lectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, F\u00e9lou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act 22 of 2024 (signed 2024; the government page returned not found). Government Gazette, Pretoria. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, No. 11 of 2016 (the page returned an access error). Kenya Law, Nairobi. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. P\u00f6rtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Africa chapter. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c4-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\">Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Failed rainy season with power and food stress across eastern and southern Africa<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>3 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>5 notes<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-AFR-RAIN-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a poor rainy season with <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.hydrological-drought\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Streamflow, lake and reservoir levels falling below normal, restricting supply, hydropower and river navigation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">low river flow<\/a>, falling hydropower and a rise in staple prices<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>southern African drought of 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; East African floods of 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; South Africa power shortfall and recovery<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">poor rains cut river flow and reservoir storage<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">drought 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">low reservoirs reduce hydropower and raise outages<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Lake Kariba 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">cereal yields fall and staple prices rise<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">yields 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; no price series bound<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FOO \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">hunger and disease risk rise in poor households<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">hunger 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FOO \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">public spending on relief rises against high debt<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">debt 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 recovery<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">recovery slows where fiscal room is thin<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">debt 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-AFR-RAIN-01 would travel through Africa&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Climate to water<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Poor rains cut river flow and reservoir storage. Analogue or source: drought 2024 [1].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition REG-AFR, scenario SCN-AFR-RAIN-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Water to energy<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Low reservoirs reduce hydropower and raise outages. Analogue or source: Lake Kariba 2024 [1].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition REG-AFR, scenario SCN-AFR-RAIN-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Climate to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Cereal yields fall and staple prices rise. Analogue or source: yields 2024 [1]; no price series bound.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition REG-AFR, scenario SCN-AFR-RAIN-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Food to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Hunger and disease risk rise in poor households. Analogue or source: hunger 2024 [2].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition REG-AFR, scenario SCN-AFR-RAIN-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Food to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Public spending on relief rises against high debt. Analogue or source: debt 2025 [24].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition REG-AFR, scenario SCN-AFR-RAIN-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Finance to recovery<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Recovery slows where fiscal room is thin. Analogue or source: debt 2025 [24].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition REG-AFR, scenario SCN-AFR-RAIN-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Africa 2026, scenario SCN-AFR-RAIN-01<\/a> (2026); Africa 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c5-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\">Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The regional baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>15 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>37 notes<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports a coupled reading of African risk: drought and flood act on water, energy and food together. Evidence is strongest for population, access and emissions, and weakest for losses, cross-border flows and the condition of nature.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">CLI-001 \u00b7 CLI-002 \u00b7 WAT-009 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people risk arrives as a failed harvest, a flood or an outage. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how shared rivers and shared power systems make one place\u2019s event another place\u2019s problem.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">CLI-002 \u00b7 FOO-004 \u00b7 ENE-006<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound, and debt ratios differ widely across the members<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">CLI-002 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Africa\u2019s statistical record is thin where it matters most for risk. The 2027 programme should bind loss, reserve and cross-border flow data, test the failed-rains pathway and measure the condition of nature.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 A-01 \u00b7 A-02<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Africa. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability have been developed?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests reveal?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What did the year establish, and what changes next?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa regional pathway<\/td><td>regional pathway: hubs named in the registry<\/td><td>regional Commons room<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard in a member country is a decision of that country\u2019s standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Floods and droughts do not stop at a frontier. The baseline treats the shared basin and the shared power system as units of analysis, with member countries as the places where the effects land.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>Risk crosses the border first<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The African Union has its own edition in the series. This edition reads Africa through three member countries named in the registry and does not join the union to the region on a code alone.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>A union is not a region<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">South Africa\u2019s move from load shedding to long stable periods shows that supply security depends on plant condition and recovery work, not on installed capacity alone.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Reliability is a design question<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Several data that matter most for risk, including losses by member, cross-border flows and cereal output after 2023, could not be read at evidence close. The edition shows each gap and the source that would fill it.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Gaps are findings too<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from working groups, consortium institutions and invited experts begin with the Q1 2027 edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 regional readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td>Regional risk state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five regional system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 7 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>editions in programme as listed in the series registry<\/td><td>regional and sector baselines<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SUBMITTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">UNDER REVIEW<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act 22 of 2024, South Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>South African Parliament<\/td><td>ZAF<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>climate law<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate Change Act 2016, Kenya<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Kenyan Parliament<\/td><td>KEN<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>climate law<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agenda 2063, continental framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>African Union<\/td><td>AU<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2013<\/td><td>continental frame<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> 2015\u20132030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNDRR<\/td><td>international<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2015<\/td><td>disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">risk reduction<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Senegal River basin organisation framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>member states<\/td><td>basin<\/td><td>IN OPERATION<\/td><td>shared river<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>South Africa signed its Climate Change Act in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Greater Tortue Ahmeyim reached first gas in December 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Eskom reported long periods without load shedding in 2025 and 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Regulations under the South African Climate Change Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Further phases of the Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Updated national climate commitments of the three members<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. A change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about Africa\u2019s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>P\u00f6rtner et al. (eds.), IPCC AR6 Working Group II<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>Africa impacts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zscheischler et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>compound events<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>2015<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">risk reduction<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of the Climate in Africa 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>forcing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agenda 2063<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>2013<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>continental frame<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional reports<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>State of the Climate in Africa 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>floods, drought<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of Food Security and Nutrition 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO and partners<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>hunger<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water and Africa\u2019s basins<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>press republication of an environment assessment<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>shared basins<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eskom statements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>utility<\/td><td>2025\u20132026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>power reliability<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cholera fact sheet<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WHO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>disease<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Official statistics and regional sources<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Population and economy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Access and use of electricity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>power<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>climate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water and sanitation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2022\u20132024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>water<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health and demography<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2023\u20132024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>health<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Industry, grid and international sources<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Macro series<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF and AfDB<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>growth, debt, prices<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewable capacity statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IRENA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>capacity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa Energy Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National population releases<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>statistics offices<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Greater Tortue Ahmeyim<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>project records<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>gas<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Africa has warmed over the past decade, and drought and flood records are rising<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Hunger remains above 20% of the African population<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Many river basins are shared and few have cooperation arrangements at the scale of the basin<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How many people in Africa lack electricity, which differs by issuer and edition<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How much of the member hunger series reflects revision, which is large for some members<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How fast new plant and storage can restore reserve margins<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from Q1 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act 22 of 2024 (signed 2024; the government page returned not found). Government Gazette, Pretoria. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, No. 11 of 2016 (the page returned an access error). Kenya Law, Nairobi. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2015\u20132030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacit\u00e9 hydro\u00e9lectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, F\u00e9lou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kosmos Energy and bp (eds.), Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project records (commercial operations 2025; second phase not yet decided, from press summaries). Kosmos Energy, Dallas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. P\u00f6rtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Africa chapter. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa\u2019s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Cholera fact sheet (2025 global totals: 451,499 cases and 7,870 deaths reported by 47 countries; no African subtotal on the page). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, People using at least basic drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (South Africa 90.2, Kenya 65.6, Senegal 88.0, group 67.5), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, People using safely managed sanitation services, % of population (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), South Africa (73.8), Kenya (35.8), Senegal (30.1) and Sub-Saharan Africa (25.9), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 mortality-rate\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The number of deaths in a population over a period relative to its size.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Mortality rate<\/a>, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), South Africa (6.7), Kenya (3.0), Senegal (3.6) and Sub-Saharan Africa (3.2), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Life expectancy at birth, years (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, real GDP growth (NGDP_RPCH), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, inflation, average consumer prices (PCPIPCH), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Development Bank (ed.), African Economic Outlook 2025 (context only; no figure used). AfDB, Abidjan. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (Africa added 11.3 GW in 2025, from press summaries; the page returned an access error). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2025 (release of 28 July 2025: 63,100,945 people, from search summaries; differs from the World Bank 2024 value of 64,007,187). Stats SA, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence nationale de la statistique et de la d\u00e9mographie (ed.), Rapport sur la population du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal 2025 (19,075,959 people, from search summaries; the page returned an error; the United Nations projection of about 18.9 million differs). ANSD, Dakar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Electricity access commentary, October 2025 (about 730 million people without electricity worldwide in 2024, sub-Saharan Africa about eight in ten, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, IRENA, UN Statistics Division, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (sub-Saharan Africa about 563 million without electricity, from search summaries). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\">Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 Regional Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>2 notes<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a failed rainy season load power, food and public budgets across member borders?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-AFR-CLI-01 \u00b7 compound rains and power stress; first output: dependency graph for eastern and southern Africa.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How reliable is power supply after the load-shedding period, and how does it reach industry and households?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-AFR-ENE-02 \u00b7 power system reliability; first output: availability and outage register for South Africa.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do shared river basins carry drought and flood across borders?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-AFR-WAT-03 \u00b7 shared basins; first output: basin performance note for the Senegal River.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How many people are in hunger by member, and which shocks move the figure?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-AFR-FOO-04 \u00b7 food security; first output: hunger and cereal baseline for three members.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where do flood and drought losses fall between households, insurers and public budgets?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-AFR-FIN-05 \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a>; first output: peril-by-member loss table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">What is the condition of protected areas and how is it measured across members?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-AFR-BIO-01 \u00b7 workstream; first output: condition indicator note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How far do gas and oil developments change power, budgets and exposure in Senegal?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-AFR-CLI-01<\/span><\/td><td>Compound rains, power and food stress<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-AFR-ENE-02<\/span><\/td><td>Power system reliability<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-AFR-WAT-03<\/span><\/td><td>Shared basins in drought and flood<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-AFR-FOO-04<\/span><\/td><td>Food security baseline<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-AFR-FIN-05<\/span><\/td><td>Flood and drought <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PRJ-AFR-CLI-01a<\/span><\/td><td>Eastern and southern Africa compound rains dependency graph<\/td><td>Project<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-AFR-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Rains, power and food Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The Africa regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read Africa as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Foundries<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">continuous national evidence environments<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PREPARED \u00b7 first sealed cuts in Q1 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Models and Portfolios<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">each country as a system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANADA v0 ISSUED \u00b7 25 further national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Quarterly national reports<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">State &amp; Agenda, Evidence, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a>, Annual<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE STAGE \u00b7 Q1 2027 opens the series<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Regional aggregation<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Africa as one of ten regional clusters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">THIS EDITION \u00b7 annual regional cut from 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Global sector and strategic models<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">GS-01\u202615 \u00b7 SR-01\u202614 \u00b7 XT-01\u202620<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">49 PLANNED \u00b7 pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 global mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Global Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE ISSUED \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 regional annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-AFR-2027-01 \u00b7 Rains, power and food Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor (NLC) \u00b7 Institutional anchor (NNC) \u00b7 Mission lead (NWG)<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>CLI-001 \u00b7 temperature<\/td><td>public record<\/td><td>reference for the 2027 series<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CLI-002 \u00b7 floods 2024<\/td><td>INI-AFR-CLI-01<\/td><td>compound rains graph<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FOO-004 \u00b7 hunger<\/td><td>INI-AFR-FOO-04<\/td><td>food security baseline<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENE-005 \u00b7 access<\/td><td>INI-AFR-ENE-02<\/td><td>power system reliability<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENE-006 \u00b7 load shedding<\/td><td>INI-AFR-ENE-02<\/td><td>power system reliability<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WAT-009 \u00b7 withdrawal<\/td><td>INI-AFR-WAT-03<\/td><td>shared basins<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIO-011 \u00b7 protected areas<\/td><td>INI-AFR-BIO-01<\/td><td>condition indicator<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-AFR-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from Q1 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Population and economy<\/td><td>World Bank and national statistics offices<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate and hazards<\/td><td>WMO and national meteorological services<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI findings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunger and food<\/td><td>FAO and partners<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>FOO-004<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Power system<\/td><td>Eskom and national utilities<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><td>ENE-006<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Macro series<\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>six-monthly<\/td><td>FIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Humanitarian situation<\/td><td>OCHA and national disaster agencies<\/td><td>event-based<\/td><td>CLI-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cholera<\/td><td>WHO<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>HLT<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">quarterly publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-AFR-001<\/td><td>Floods of 2024 in East Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 INF<\/td><td>risk object RSK-AFR-CLI-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-AFR-002<\/td><td>Southern African drought of 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 FOO<\/td><td>research question A-01<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-AFR-003<\/td><td>Eskom recovery 2025 to 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>ENE \u00b7 INF<\/td><td>research question A-02<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c7-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\">Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>8 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>22 notes<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Member countries: the baseline regional chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The three member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. The African Union is a separate subject: it appears only as a reference group, and no figure here is a union total.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">64.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>South Africa population, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">56.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Kenya population, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">18.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Senegal population, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Member system cards at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Member<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>South Africa<\/td><td>population 64.0 million; GDP USD 401.1 billion; access 87.7%; carbon dioxide 427.3 Mt; freshwater withdrawal 47.1%; protected 9.5%; no load shedding since 16 May 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kenya<\/td><td>population 56.4 million; GDP USD 120.4 billion; access 76.2%; carbon dioxide 21.3 Mt; undernourishment 36.4%; protected 14.0%; renewables 78.1% of electricity and 67.7% of final energy in 2021<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Senegal<\/td><td>population 18.5 million; GDP USD 32.2 billion; access 74.2%; carbon dioxide 13.7 Mt; protected 26.3%; first gas December 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>African Union reference group<\/td><td>no union total is shown; Agenda 2063 frames the continent over 50 years from 2013<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings across members<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 FOO across eastern and southern Africa<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 ENE hydropower on shared reservoirs<\/li><li>FOO \u2190 CLI hunger in drought years<\/li><li>FIN \u2190 CLI losses carried by households and public budgets<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>member emissions including land use<\/li><li>flood and drought loss series by member<\/li><li>electricity mix after 2021<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Member releases of national statistics, the next continental climate assessment and the next hunger report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Each member keeps ownership of its own edition. This chapter compares indicators; it assesses no member and builds no league table.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Shared basins, power <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and gas fields carry risk across borders. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">400<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">MW<\/span><p>Senegal River hydropower capacity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">63<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">basins<\/span><p>transboundary river basins in Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mtpa<\/span><p>Greater Tortue Ahmeyim Phase 1, about<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Shared basins and seas<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Basin<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Members involved<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Senegal River<\/td><td>Senegal; Guinea, Mali and Mauritania are outside the member set<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nile basin and Lake Victoria headwaters<\/td><td>Kenya; member share not bound; no source read<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Orange-Senqu<\/td><td>South Africa; member share not bound; no source read<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Limpopo<\/td><td>South Africa; member share not bound; no source read<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Shared grids and gas networks<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Grid<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Members involved<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>South African national grid<\/td><td>Eskom reports 490 days without load shedding to 20 September 2026 and year-to-date availability of 67.96%<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Southern African power exchange<\/td><td>South Africa; flows and capacity not bound<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eastern African power exchange<\/td><td>a press report says Kenya imports power from neighbours; not opened and no figure used<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n52\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r52\" aria-label=\"Note 52\">52<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>West African power exchange<\/td><td>Senegal; flows and capacity not bound<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Offshore gas field<\/td><td>Greater Tortue Ahmeyim: first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 Mtpa; shared by Senegal and Mauritania<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings through shared systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 ENE low flow into hydropower<\/li><li>INF \u2192 ENE a plant failure reaching industry and households<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 FOO irrigation and flow<\/li><li>TRD \u2192 FIN gas revenue into public budgets<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>basin area and member shares<\/li><li>cross-border power flows and capacity<\/li><li>irrigation withdrawals<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>River-flow forecasts, reservoir levels, utility outlooks and the next phase decision for the gas project<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Basin organisations, utilities and regulators hold these mandates. This chapter assesses none of them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Hub list: the baseline regional chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Registry<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Regional hubs<\/dt><dd>Dakar \u00b7 Nairobi \u00b7 Pretoria<\/dd><dt>Desks with a remit<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 GRX<\/dd><dt>Registry record<\/dt><dd>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Member hubs as the registry names them<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Hub<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Member<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Registry role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Member edition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Pretoria<\/td><td>South Africa<\/td><td>G20 \u00b7 hub<\/td><td>in preparation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dakar<\/td><td>Senegal<\/td><td>Hub<\/td><td>in preparation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nairobi<\/td><td>Kenya<\/td><td>Hub<\/td><td>in preparation<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What a hub does in this series<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline<\/li><li>Hub contact points are not named at baseline<\/li><li>The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A hub is a place named in the registry. It is not an institution, an office or a mandate, and it gives no authority over any member.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read Africa as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The regional pathway at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Stage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What exists today<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Regional hubs<\/td><td>Dakar, Nairobi and Pretoria are named in the series registry<\/td><td>NAMED<\/td><td>terms set from Q1 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Desks<\/td><td>GCRI, GRF and GRX hold the remit for regional editions in the registry<\/td><td>NAMED<\/td><td>work plan for Q1 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence graph<\/td><td>member and regional findings share identifiers<\/td><td>PREPARED<\/td><td>first sealed cut NQ-REG-AFR-2027-Q1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Member editions<\/td><td>South Africa in preparation; Senegal in preparation; Kenya in preparation<\/td><td>MIXED<\/td><td>review through the chain before release<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Open at baseline<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Constitution of any regional council or working group<\/li><li>Hub terms of reference and contact points<\/li><li>The route to the African Union edition in the series<\/li><li>Which further African states receive member entries<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Decisions that rest elsewhere<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Energy, water and health policy rest with national authorities and basin organisations<\/li><li>Continental frameworks are set by the African Union and its members; this edition cites them and decides nothing<\/li><li>The African Union subject has its own edition and is not merged with Africa on code<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>The pathway is a design. It does not set priorities for a government or a union and assesses no authority.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (values for 2022 to 2024 are null), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (group value is for 2020), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2025 (release of 28 July 2025: 63,100,945 people, from search summaries; differs from the World Bank 2024 value of 64,007,187). Stats SA, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence nationale de la statistique et de la d\u00e9mographie (ed.), Rapport sur la population du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal 2025 (19,075,959 people, from search summaries; the page returned an error; the United Nations projection of about 18.9 million differs). ANSD, Dakar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacit\u00e9 hydro\u00e9lectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, F\u00e9lou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa\u2019s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n52\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">52<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zawya (ed.), Why Kenya depends on Ethiopia and Uganda for power (press report on imports within the Eastern Africa power exchange; no figure used). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r52\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 52\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kosmos Energy and bp (eds.), Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project records (commercial operations 2025; second phase not yet decided, from press summaries). Kosmos Energy, Dallas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\">Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>13 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>South Africa\u2019s share of sub-Saharan Africa carbon dioxide emissions excluding land use, 2023<\/td><td>427.27 \u00f7 871.01<\/td><td>49.1%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Kenya\u2019s share of sub-Saharan Africa carbon dioxide emissions excluding land use, 2023<\/td><td>21.27 \u00f7 871.01<\/td><td>2.4%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>The three members\u2019 share of sub-Saharan Africa population, 2024<\/td><td>138.94 \u00f7 1,289.94<\/td><td>10.8%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>South Africa\u2019s electricity use per person against Kenya\u2019s, 2022<\/td><td>3,404.6 \u00f7 189.4<\/td><td>18.0 times<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at regional scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card: Regional System Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-AFR-REGIONAL \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent Africa as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of systems<\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the coupled reading of risk in Africa.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>NQ-REG-AFR-2026-Q0-1<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>52 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>NQ-REG-AFR-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 regional annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Regional System Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Population, World Bank<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>not recorded<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population, national offices<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jul 2025 \u00b7 Apr 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity access<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>not recorded<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity per person<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>not recorded<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Carbon dioxide emissions<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>not recorded<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Freshwater withdrawal<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>not recorded<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of the Climate in Africa<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>May 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunger report<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Jul 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eskom statements<\/td><td>2025 to Sep 2026<\/td><td>Aug 2025 \u00b7 Sep 2026<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Climate and hazards<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>losses by member<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>generation mix after 2021; cross-border flows<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>basin area and member shares<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>cereal output after 2023; food access<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>heat deaths; cholera in Africa<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>habitat condition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>insured and uninsured losses<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Digital<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>dependency mapping<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Continental electricity access count for 2024, on one basis<\/td><td>IEA, World Bank and WHO Tracking SDG7 reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>not opened; the figures found in search summaries differ across editions (about 590 million and 563 million in sub-Saharan Africa)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity generation mix of Kenya, Senegal and South Africa after 2021<\/td><td>Kenya National Bureau of Statistics, Kenya energy regulator, Senegal energy ministry, South African utility and regulator reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the World Bank series stops at 2021; national releases were not opened<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cereal production for 2024 and 2025, by member<\/td><td>national agriculture ministries and FAO crop statistics<\/td><td>the World Bank series stops at 2023; no later release opened<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deaths and people affected by the Senegal floods of 2025<\/td><td>humanitarian situation reports and the Senegal civil protection authority<\/td><td>no consolidated national figure found; results mixed 2025 and 2026 events<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kenya flood deaths and displacement for March to June 2024, from the situation report<\/td><td>humanitarian flash update on the Kenya floods<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>page returned an access error; figures seen in search summaries only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Insured and uninsured losses of the 2025 Eastern Cape floods<\/td><td>insurers\u2019 associations and the national disaster management centre<\/td><td>not retrieved; only a local-authority repair estimate was seen in search summaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Basin area and member shares of the Senegal River basin<\/td><td>Senegal River basin organisation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>published areas range from about 270,000 to 483,200 km2 across secondary sources; no primary page read<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Member shares of the Nile, Orange-Senqu and Limpopo basins<\/td><td>basin organisations and the Africa-wide water assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>no source read<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">Heat-related deaths<\/a> in any member country<\/td><td>national health ministries and peer-reviewed studies<\/td><td>not found at evidence close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cholera cases and deaths in Africa for 2025<\/td><td>WHO and Africa CDC situation reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the WHO fact sheet opened gives global totals only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewable energy capacity of the three members for 2025<\/td><td>IRENA Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>page returned an access error; press summaries give continental figures only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Member greenhouse gas emissions including land use<\/td><td>national inventories submitted to the UNFCCC<\/td><td>the World Bank series opened excludes land use<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs: <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a>, reserves, response, recovery, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">social protection<\/a>, infrastructure, workforce<\/td><td>meteorological services, civil protection, utilities and ministries<\/td><td>not reviewed by evidence close<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards: two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the World Bank. Annual. Role: binds the access findings. The issuer models values from national surveys and utility data, and the sub-Saharan Africa group excludes North Africa.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-AFR-001<\/h3><p>Access to electricity, % of population<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the World Meteorological Organization. Annual. Role: binds the forcing and hazard findings. Figures are continental or sub-regional and are not separated by member.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-AFR-002<\/h3><p>State of the Climate in Africa 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-AFR-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-AFR-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>South Africa, Kenya and Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group<\/td><td>continental and sub-regional only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 1 to 3 years after the reference year<\/td><td>about 5 months after the reference year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>series revised by the issuer; not tracked here<\/td><td>one release per year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>published methodology<\/td><td>published methodology<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>not assessed in this edition<\/td><td>not assessed in this edition<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>National electricity statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup> : generation mix after 2021<\/li><li>Humanitarian situation reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup> : flood deaths and displacement<\/li><li>IEA, IRENA and Tracking SDG7<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup> : access and capacity on one basis<\/li><li>Reports Foundational Edition<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n51\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r51\" aria-label=\"Note 51\">51<\/a><\/sup> and the global baseline<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n50\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r50\" aria-label=\"Note 50\">50<\/a><\/sup> : method and peer distributions<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>AU<\/td><td>African Union<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CDC<\/td><td>Centres for Disease Control and Prevention<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EAF<\/td><td>energy availability factor<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO<\/td><td>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GTA<\/td><td>Greater Tortue Ahmeyim<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA<\/td><td>International Energy Agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF<\/td><td>International Monetary Fund<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IRENA<\/td><td>International Renewable Energy Agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LNG<\/td><td>liquefied natural gas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LULUCF<\/td><td>land use, land-use change and forestry<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>OMVS<\/td><td>Senegal River basin organisation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG<\/td><td>Sustainable Development Goal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WHO<\/td><td>World Health Organization<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WMO<\/td><td>World Meteorological Organization<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the regional indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-AFR-RAIN-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Member-country notes<\/td><td>atlas cards for every member country<\/td><td>Q2 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: carbon dioxide excluding land use<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>annual carbon dioxide emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>Mt CO\u2082e<\/dd><dt>Scope<\/dt><dd>calendar year<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>World Bank greenhouse gas series for carbon dioxide excluding land use<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Revision<\/dt><dd>revised by the issuer; not tracked here<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>other gases and land use are not in the series<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Electricity access commentary, October 2025 (about 730 million people without electricity worldwide in 2024, sub-Saharan Africa about eight in ten, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, IRENA, UN Statistics Division, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (sub-Saharan Africa about 563 million without electricity, from search summaries). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Economic Survey 2025 and 2026 (electricity generation by source; figures seen only in press summaries and not used). KNBS, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN OCHA (ed.), Kenya heavy rains and flooding, flash update 7 (19 June 2024; about 315 killed and 293,200 displaced between 1 March and 18 June 2024, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). OCHA, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacit\u00e9 hydro\u00e9lectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, F\u00e9lou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa\u2019s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Cholera fact sheet (2025 global totals: 451,499 cases and 7,870 deaths reported by 47 countries; no African subtotal on the page). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (Africa added 11.3 GW in 2025, from press summaries; the page returned an access error). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n51\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">51<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r51\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 51\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n50\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">50<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r50\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 50\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-ca-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\">Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>11 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>7 tables<\/span><span>26 notes<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>South Africa population<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">64.0<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kenya population<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">56.4<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Senegal population<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">18.5<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sub-Saharan Africa population<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1,289.9<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Africa GDP<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">401.1<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Africa electricity access<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">87.7<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kenya electricity access<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">76.2<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Senegal electricity access<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">74.2<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Africa carbon dioxide excluding land use<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">427.3<\/span><\/td><td>Mt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Share of sub-Saharan Africa carbon dioxide, South Africa<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">49.1<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Africa freshwater withdrawal<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">47.1<\/span><\/td><td>% of internal resources<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prevalence of undernourishment, Kenya<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">36.4<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunger in Africa<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">307<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People affected by East African floods<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">700,000<\/span><\/td><td>people<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Under-five mortality, sub-Saharan Africa<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">73.2<\/span><\/td><td>per 1,000<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Terrestrial protected area, Senegal<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">26.3<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cereal production after 2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Not bound<\/span><\/td><td>tonnes<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity mix after 2021<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Not bound<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continental electricity access count<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Not bound<\/span><\/td><td>people<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat-linked deaths<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Not bound<\/span><\/td><td>deaths<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0ASouth%20Africa%20population%2C64.0%2Cmillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0AKenya%20population%2C56.4%2Cmillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0ASenegal%20population%2C18.5%2Cmillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0ASub-Saharan%20Africa%20population%2C%221%2C289.9%22%2Cmillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0ASouth%20Africa%20GDP%2C401.1%2CUSD%20billion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B5%5D%0ASouth%20Africa%20electricity%20access%2C87.7%2C%25%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0AKenya%20electricity%20access%2C76.2%2C%25%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0ASenegal%20electricity%20access%2C74.2%2C%25%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0ASouth%20Africa%20carbon%20dioxide%20excluding%20land%20use%2C427.3%2CMt%20CO%E2%82%82e%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B6%5D%0A%22Share%20of%20sub-Saharan%20Africa%20carbon%20dioxide%2C%20South%20Africa%22%2C49.1%2C%25%2C2023%2CESTIMATED%2C%5B6%5D%0ASouth%20Africa%20freshwater%20withdrawal%2C47.1%2C%25%20of%20internal%20resources%2C2022%2CREPORTED%2C%5B11%5D%0A%22Prevalence%20of%20undernourishment%2C%20Kenya%22%2C36.4%2C%25%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0AHunger%20in%20Africa%2C307%2Cmillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0APeople%20affected%20by%20East%20African%20floods%2C%22700%2C000%22%2Cpeople%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Under-five%20mortality%2C%20sub-Saharan%20Africa%22%2C73.2%2C%22per%201%2C000%22%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B13%5D%0A%22Terrestrial%20protected%20area%2C%20Senegal%22%2C26.3%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B12%5D%0ACereal%20production%20after%202023%2CNot%20bound%2Ctonnes%2Cn%2Fa%2CNOT%20BOUND%2C%5B18%5D%0AElectricity%20mix%20after%202021%2CNot%20bound%2C%25%2Cn%2Fa%2CNOT%20BOUND%2C%5B40%5D%0AContinental%20electricity%20access%20count%2CNot%20bound%2Cpeople%2Cn%2Fa%2CNOT%20BOUND%2C%5B36%5D%0AHeat-linked%20deaths%2CNot%20bound%2Cdeaths%2Cn%2Fa%2CNOT%20BOUND%2C%5B1%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Africa%20Regional%20Systems%20Risk%20and%20Resilience%20Report%202026%3A%20Baseline%20Edition%2C%20The%20State%20of%20Africa%E2%80%99s%20Interdependent%20Systems.%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22South%20Africa%20population%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2264.0%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Kenya%20population%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2256.4%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Senegal%20population%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2218.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Sub-Saharan%20Africa%20population%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221%2C289.9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22South%20Africa%20GDP%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22401.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B5%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22South%20Africa%20electricity%20access%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2287.7%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Kenya%20electricity%20access%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2276.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Senegal%20electricity%20access%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2274.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22South%20Africa%20carbon%20dioxide%20excluding%20land%20use%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22427.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Mt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B6%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Share%20of%20sub-Saharan%20Africa%20carbon%20dioxide%2C%20South%20Africa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2249.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ESTIMATED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B6%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22South%20Africa%20freshwater%20withdrawal%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2247.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%20of%20internal%20resources%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B11%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Prevalence%20of%20undernourishment%2C%20Kenya%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2236.4%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B10%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Hunger%20in%20Africa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22307%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20affected%20by%20East%20African%20floods%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22700%2C000%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22people%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Under-five%20mortality%2C%20sub-Saharan%20Africa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2273.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22per%201%2C000%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B13%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Terrestrial%20protected%20area%2C%20Senegal%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2226.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B12%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Cereal%20production%20after%202023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Not%20bound%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22tonnes%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22n%2Fa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22NOT%20BOUND%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B18%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Electricity%20mix%20after%202021%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Not%20bound%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22n%2Fa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22NOT%20BOUND%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B40%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Continental%20electricity%20access%20count%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Not%20bound%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22people%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22n%2Fa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22NOT%20BOUND%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B36%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Heat-linked%20deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Not%20bound%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22n%2Fa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22NOT%20BOUND%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Percentage shares and the ratio are Nexus arithmetic and are labelled ESTIMATED; the method is in the technical layer. Rows marked NOT BOUND name the source that would fill them. Sub-Saharan Africa is a World Bank grouping and is not the same as Africa. Member emissions are carbon dioxide excluding land use. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Regional source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Population<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>international and national statistics<\/td><td>members, group<\/td><td>2024\u20132025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity access and use<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>international statistics<\/td><td>members, group<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>ENE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>international statistics<\/td><td>members, group<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of the Climate in Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>agency assessment<\/td><td>region<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI, WAT, FOO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunger<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>agency assessment<\/td><td>region, members<\/td><td>2023\u20132024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>FOO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eskom statements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>utility statement<\/td><td>South Africa<\/td><td>2025\u20132026<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><td>ENE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water withdrawal<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>international statistics<\/td><td>members, group<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>WAT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Floods<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>provincial and humanitarian statements<\/td><td>South Africa, Kenya<\/td><td>2024\u20132025<\/td><td>event-based<\/td><td>CLI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>international statistics<\/td><td>members, group<\/td><td>2023\u20132025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>HLT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Protected areas<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>international statistics<\/td><td>members, group<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>BIO<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading: Africa by member country<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates for every member country follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form for the 3 member countries named in the series registry.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Population, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">64.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>South Africa<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">56.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Kenya<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">18.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Senegal<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading: Africa by member country<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Member<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>South Africa<\/td><td>floods in the Eastern Cape, June 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup>; drought in southern Africa, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>energy, water, infrastructure<\/td><td>population 64.0 million; access 87.7%; carbon dioxide 427.3 Mt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kenya<\/td><td>floods in East Africa, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; flood deaths from the situation report not bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>water, health, food<\/td><td>population 56.4 million; access 76.2%; undernourishment 36.4%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Senegal<\/td><td>first gas at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim, December 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup>; flood deaths for 2025 not bound<\/td><td>energy, water<\/td><td>population 18.5 million; access 74.2%; protected land 26.3%; forest 45.1% of land<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any member country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Atlas card: Senegal River basin<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">basin<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">shared river system<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">hydropower and irrigation<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">members: Senegal<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>water, energy and food<\/dd><dt>Defining instruments<\/dt><dd>basin organisation framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 ENE; WAT \u2192 FOO<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>a basin organisation of four states operates 400 MW of hydropower<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup>; performance not bound<\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>basin area, member shares, flow series and irrigation withdrawals<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>A-03<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The basin organisation covers Guinea, Mali, Mauritania and Senegal [30]. Basin area differs across secondary sources and is not bound. Mali, Mauritania and Guinea are not members of this series.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">WATER<\/h3><p>A shared river system<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The organisation reports 200 MW at Manantali, 60 MW at F\u00e9lou and 140 MW at Gouina, 400 MW in all [30].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">ENERGY<\/h3><p>Hydropower capacity<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Source: basin organisation and national agriculture records. Blocker: not retrieved at evidence close.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">FOOD<\/h3><p>Irrigation and flow<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Atlas cards are generated for every member country from Q2 2027 with consistent fields and evidence-age labels. The basin is shown first because it holds the clearest shared-water coupling for a member, and the other members\u2019 basins are not bound.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>Africa system card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The card through which Africa appears in the global edition and in the sector series. It summarises; it does not rank.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Africa system card<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline state<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>South Africa withdrew 47.1% of internal resources<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>drought into energy and food<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>access 53.3% in sub-Saharan Africa; 87.7% in South Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>reliability and reach<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>307 million in hunger<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>drought and price shocks<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<\/td><td>under-five mortality 73.2 per 1,000 in sub-Saharan Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>disease and flood risk<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>protected: 17.0% of sub-Saharan land<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>condition not bound<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Context<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Archetype<\/dt><dd>three members inside a continent of shared basins and power <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Population<\/dt><dd>1.29 billion in sub-Saharan Africa, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>; United Nations projections give a larger figure for the whole continent<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Trade<\/dt><dd>first gas from a shared offshore field, December 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Hazard<\/dt><dd>floods in East Africa affected more than 700,000 people in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The member editions (South Africa, Senegal, Kenya) and this regional edition share finding identifiers where they read the same evidence, so a correction travels to every edition at once.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">MEMBER EDITIONS<\/h3><p>Same findings, same IDs<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Africa evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES<\/h3><p>Regional evidence, sector reports<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">In the global edition Africa is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">GLOBAL FLAGSHIP<\/h3><p>Peers, not ranks<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each member\u2019s ownership of its own edition is unaffected.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>20 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>NQ-REG-AFR-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 mortality-rate\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The number of deaths in a population over a period relative to its size.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Mortality rate<\/a>, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), South Africa (19.0 Mt), Kenya (5.1 Mt), Senegal (4.0 Mt) and Sub-Saharan Africa (187.2 Mt), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Economic Survey 2025 and 2026 (electricity generation by source; figures seen only in press summaries and not used). KNBS, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Electricity access commentary, October 2025 (about 730 million people without electricity worldwide in 2024, sub-Saharan Africa about eight in ten, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2025 (release of 28 July 2025: 63,100,945 people, from search summaries; differs from the World Bank 2024 value of 64,007,187). Stats SA, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence nationale de la statistique et de la d\u00e9mographie (ed.), Rapport sur la population du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal 2025 (19,075,959 people, from search summaries; the page returned an error; the United Nations projection of about 18.9 million differs). ANSD, Dakar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024 (Africa about 1.55 billion in mid-2025, from aggregator summaries). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN OCHA (ed.), Kenya heavy rains and flooding, flash update 7 (19 June 2024; about 315 killed and 293,200 displaced between 1 March and 18 June 2024, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). OCHA, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Life expectancy at birth, years (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Cholera fact sheet (2025 global totals: 451,499 cases and 7,870 deaths reported by 47 countries; no African subtotal on the page). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), South Africa (18.7), Kenya (6.5), Senegal (45.1) and Sub-Saharan Africa (25.7), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacit\u00e9 hydro\u00e9lectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, F\u00e9lou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-reg-afr-cb-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\">Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>16 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>52 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024 (press release and report page, published 12 May 2025: temperature, drought, cereal yields, floods, marine heatwaves). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025 (joint release page, 28 July 2025: Africa 307 million in hunger, above 20%). WHO, Geneva, for the partner agencies. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Access to electricity, % of population (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GDP, current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Carbon dioxide emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.CO2.MT.CE.AR5), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, People using at least basic drinking water services, % of population (SH.H2O.BASW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (South Africa 90.2, Kenya 65.6, Senegal 88.0, group 67.5), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (values for 2022 to 2024 are null), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (group value is for 2020), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Prevalence of undernourishment, % of population (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa (Kenya and Senegal values repeat across years), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 mortality-rate\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The number of deaths in a population over a period relative to its size.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Mortality rate<\/a>, under-5, per 1,000 live births (SH.DYN.MORT), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Forest area, % of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), South Africa (18.7), Kenya (6.5), Senegal (45.1) and Sub-Saharan Africa (25.7), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Urban population, % of total population (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), South Africa (6.7), Kenya (3.0), Senegal (3.6) and Sub-Saharan Africa (3.2), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Life expectancy at birth, years (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), South Africa (19.0 Mt), Kenya (5.1 Mt), Senegal (4.0 Mt) and Sub-Saharan Africa (187.2 Mt), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Agriculture, forestry and fishing, value added, % of GDP (NV.AGR.TOTL.ZS), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Electric power consumption, kWh per capita (EG.USE.ELEC.KH.PC), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and Sub-Saharan Africa, as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, People using safely managed sanitation services, % of population (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), South Africa (73.8), Kenya (35.8), Senegal (30.1) and Sub-Saharan Africa (25.9), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, Poverty headcount ratio at 3.00 US dollars a day (2021 PPP) (SI.POV.DDAY), South Africa (17.4, 2022), Kenya (45.5, 2022), Senegal (17.9, 2021) and Sub-Saharan Africa (45.5, 2023), as served by the World Bank indicators interface on the access date. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, real GDP growth (NGDP_RPCH), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, general government gross debt, % of GDP (GGXWDG_NGDP), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook DataMapper, inflation, average consumer prices (PCPIPCH), South Africa, Kenya, Senegal and the sub-Saharan Africa group, latest vintage served on the access date; values for the latest year may be estimates or projections. IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Cholera fact sheet (2025 global totals: 451,499 cases and 7,870 deaths reported by 47 countries; no African subtotal on the page). WHO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government, as reported by the South African Government News Agency (ed.), Death toll in Eastern Cape floods rises to 90 (16 June 2025; about 2,686 residents in shelters). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings (ed.), Power system remains stable with 105 consecutive days without loadshedding (media statement, 29 August 2025). Eskom, Johannesburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Government News Agency (ed.), Eskom continues to record progress (20 September 2026: 490 consecutive days without load shedding; year-to-date EAF 67.96%). SAnews, Pretoria. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>African Manager (ed.), OMVS: une capacit\u00e9 hydro\u00e9lectrique de 400 MW (statement of the OMVS High Commissioner: Manantali 200 MW, F\u00e9lou 60 MW, Gouina 140 MW; members Guinea, Mali, Mauritania, Senegal). African Manager, Casablanca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>World Oil (ed.), First gas achieved at Greater Tortue Ahmeyim LNG project, offshore West Africa (2 January 2025; first gas 31 December 2024; Phase 1 about 2.3 million tonnes a year). World Oil, Houston. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Environmental Peacebuilding (ed.), State of Africa\u2019s Environment: Transboundary tension (republication of an article of 15 September 2024; 63 basins, about 62% of land area, about 90% of surface water; the underlying report is not named on the page). Environmental Peacebuilding Association. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>African Union Commission (ed.), Agenda 2063: overview (framework for socio-economic transformation over 50 years from 2013, with 10-year implementation plans). African Union, Addis Ababa. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2025 (release of 28 July 2025: 63,100,945 people, from search summaries; differs from the World Bank 2024 value of 64,007,187). Stats SA, Pretoria. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Agence nationale de la statistique et de la d\u00e9mographie (ed.), Rapport sur la population du S\u00e9n\u00e9gal 2025 (19,075,959 people, from search summaries; the page returned an error; the United Nations projection of about 18.9 million differs). ANSD, Dakar. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Electricity access commentary, October 2025 (about 730 million people without electricity worldwide in 2024, sub-Saharan Africa about eight in ten, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (Africa added 11.3 GW in 2025, from press summaries; the page returned an access error). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024 (Africa about 1.55 billion in mid-2025, from aggregator summaries). UN DESA, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN OCHA (ed.), Kenya heavy rains and flooding, flash update 7 (19 June 2024; about 315 killed and 293,200 displaced between 1 March and 18 June 2024, from search summaries; the page returned an access error). OCHA, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kenya National Bureau of Statistics (ed.), Economic Survey 2025 and 2026 (electricity generation by source; figures seen only in press summaries and not used). KNBS, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kosmos Energy and bp (eds.), Greater Tortue Ahmeyim project records (commercial operations 2025; second phase not yet decided, from press summaries). Kosmos Energy, Dallas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of the Republic of South Africa (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act 22 of 2024 (signed 2024; the government page returned not found). Government Gazette, Pretoria. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Parliament of Kenya (ed.), Climate Change Act, No. 11 of 2016 (the page returned an access error). Kenya Law, Nairobi. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. P\u00f6rtner, D. C. Roberts et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, Africa chapter. IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2015\u20132030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Development Bank (ed.), African Economic Outlook 2025 (context only; no figure used). AfDB, Abidjan. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, IRENA, UN Statistics Division, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (sub-Saharan Africa about 563 million without electricity, from search summaries). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-50\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">50<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack read as the structural base of this edition). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-51\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">51<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-ref-52\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">52<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zawya (ed.), Why Kenya depends on Ethiopia and Uganda for power (press report on imports within the Eastern Africa power exchange; no figure used). Zawya, Dubai. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Africa Regional <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Edition 2026\u20132030<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 regional edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2027-Q1-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-reg-afr-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">REG-AFR<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-reg-afr-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-REGIONAL-AFR-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-REG-AFR-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Africa; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Africa\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Africa&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Africa\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Africa\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Africa\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Africa, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Africa for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Africa Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of Africa\u2019s Interdependent Systems..&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Africa&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Regional Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Africa&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Regional Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-reg-afr-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-reg-afr-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>REG-AFR edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Africa 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; REG-AFR is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Africa.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Regional Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/reg-afr\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. 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