{"id":1417,"date":"2026-11-04T11:43:23","date_gmt":"2026-11-04T11:43:23","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/"},"modified":"2026-11-04T18:24:36","modified_gmt":"2026-11-04T18:24:36","slug":"full","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/","title":{"rendered":"Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026: complete edition"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- Nexus Reports \u00b7 GCRI \u00b7 https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/ \u00b7 source sha256:d4c00fb381233e29e19ee1f452706faafb78daa1e82db1eacbb0691d49d7c67b \u00b7 generated by integrations\/wordpress\/nexus-reports\/build.mjs, never edit this file --><script>window.nexusLiveStrings={\"label\":\"Load the live map\",\"note\":\"Imagery and feeds come from other services (NASA, USGS, OpenStreetMap) and load only when you ask.\"};<\/script><script>(function(){\"use strict\";var n=window,l=document,A=\"nexus.live-map\",K=\"nexus.live-map.reload\";if(n.NXLive){return}var B=[{\"id\":\"gibs\",\"host\":\"gibs.earthdata.nasa.gov\",\"path\":\"^\/(wmts|wms|legends|colormaps)\/\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/gibs\",\"credit\":\"NASA GIBS\",\"test\":[\"\/wmts\/epsg3857\/best\/BlueMarble_ShadedRelief_Bathymetry\/default\/GoogleMapsCompatible_Level8\/2\/1\/1.jpeg\",\"\/wmts\/epsg3857\/best\/OPERA_L3_Dynamic_Surface_Water_Extent-HLS\/default\/2026-10-30\/GoogleMapsCompatible_Level12\/3\/2\/4.png\",\"\/wmts\/epsg4326\/best\/ASTER_GDEM_Greyscale_Shaded_Relief\/default\/250m\/0\/0\/0.jpg\",\"\/wmts\/epsg3857\/best\/GOES-East_ABI_GeoColor\/default\/2026-10-31T12:00:00Z\/GoogleMapsCompatible_Level7\/1\/0\/0.png\",\"\/wmts\/epsg4326\/best\/1.0.0\/WMTSCapabilities.xml\",\"\/wms\/epsg4326\/best\/wms.cgi?SERVICE=WMS\\u0026REQUEST=GetMap\\u0026LAYERS=ASTER_GDEM_Color_Index\",\"\/legends\/GPM_Precipitation_Rate_H.svg\"]},{\"id\":\"eonet\",\"host\":\"eonet.gsfc.nasa.gov\",\"path\":\"^\/api\/v3\/\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/eonet\",\"credit\":\"NASA EONET\",\"test\":[\"\/api\/v3\/events?status=open\\u0026days=20\",\"\/api\/v3\/events\/geojson?status=open\\u0026days=7\"]},{\"id\":\"usgs\",\"host\":\"earthquake.usgs.gov\",\"path\":\"^\/earthquakes\/feed\/v1\\\\.0\/summary\/\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/usgs\",\"credit\":\"U.S. Geological Survey\",\"test\":[\"\/earthquakes\/feed\/v1.0\/summary\/4.5_week.geojson\"]},{\"id\":\"power\",\"host\":\"power.larc.nasa.gov\",\"path\":\"^\/api\/temporal\/\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/power\",\"credit\":\"NASA POWER\",\"test\":[\"\/api\/temporal\/daily\/point?parameters=T2M\\u0026community=RE\\u0026longitude=13.4\\u0026latitude=52.5\\u0026start=20261001\\u0026end=20261010\\u0026format=JSON\"]},{\"id\":\"open-meteo\",\"host\":\"open-meteo.com\",\"subs\":[\"api\",\"flood-api\",\"ensemble-api\",\"air-quality-api\",\"marine-api\",\"archive-api\",\"historical-forecast-api\"],\"path\":\"^\/v1\/\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/open-meteo\",\"credit\":\"Open-Meteo.com\",\"test\":[\"\/flood-api\/v1\/flood?latitude=52.5\\u0026longitude=13.4\\u0026daily=river_discharge\",\"\/api\/v1\/forecast?latitude=1\\u0026longitude=2\\u0026hourly=temperature_2m\"]},{\"id\":\"metno\",\"host\":\"api.met.no\",\"path\":\"^\/weatherapi\/locationforecast\/2\\\\.0\/(compact|complete)$\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/metno\",\"credit\":\"MET Norway\",\"test\":[\"\/weatherapi\/locationforecast\/2.0\/compact?lat=45.2\\u0026lon=8.45\"]},{\"id\":\"oisst\",\"host\":\"coastwatch.pfeg.noaa.gov\",\"path\":\"^\/erddap\/griddap\/ncdcOisst21Agg_LonPM180\\\\.json$\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/oisst\",\"credit\":\"NOAA OISST v2.1 (CoastWatch ERDDAP)\",\"test\":[\"\/erddap\/griddap\/ncdcOisst21Agg_LonPM180.json?sst%5B(last)%5D%5B(0.0)%5D%5B(43.5)%5D%5B(7.5)%5D\"]},{\"id\":\"terrain\",\"host\":\"elevation-tiles-prod.s3.amazonaws.com\",\"path\":\"^\/terrarium\/\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/terrain\",\"credit\":\"Terrain Tiles (Mapzen, AWS Open Data)\",\"test\":[\"\/terrarium\/3\/4\/2.png\"]},{\"id\":\"ofm\",\"host\":\"tiles.openfreemap.org\",\"path\":\"^\/(styles|planet|fonts|sprites|natural_earth)(\/|$)\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/ofm\",\"credit\":\"OpenFreeMap, OpenMapTiles, OpenStreetMap contributors\",\"test\":[\"\/styles\/dark\",\"\/planet\",\"\/planet\/20261029_001001_pt\/3\/4\/2.pbf\",\"\/fonts\/Noto%20Sans%20Regular\/0-255.pbf\",\"\/sprites\/ofm_f384\/ofm@2x.json\"]},{\"id\":\"geoboundaries\",\"host\":\"www.geoboundaries.org\",\"path\":\"^\/api\/current\/\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/geoboundaries\",\"credit\":\"geoBoundaries\",\"test\":[\"\/api\/current\/gbOpen\/KEN\/ADM1\/\"]},{\"id\":\"gh-raw\",\"host\":\"raw.githubusercontent.com\",\"path\":\"^\/wmgeolab\/geoBoundaries\/\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/gh-raw\",\"credit\":\"geoBoundaries\",\"test\":[\"\/wmgeolab\/geoBoundaries\/9469f09\/releaseData\/gbOpen\/KEN\/ADM1\/geoBoundaries-KEN-ADM1_simplified.geojson\"]},{\"id\":\"gh-media\",\"host\":\"media.githubusercontent.com\",\"path\":\"^\/media\/wmgeolab\/geoBoundaries\/\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/gh-media\",\"credit\":\"geoBoundaries\",\"test\":[\"\/media\/wmgeolab\/geoBoundaries\/9469f09\/releaseData\/gbOpen\/KEN\/ADM1\/geoBoundaries-KEN-ADM1_simplified.geojson\"]},{\"id\":\"jsdelivr\",\"host\":\"cdn.jsdelivr.net\",\"path\":\"^\/npm\/(maplibre-gl|h3-js|pmtiles)@[0-9]+\\\\.[0-9]+\\\\.[0-9]+\/dist\/\",\"to\":\"\/nx-data\/jsdelivr\",\"credit\":\"\",\"test\":[\"\/npm\/maplibre-gl@6.9.1\/dist\/maplibre-gl.mjs\",\"\/npm\/h3-js@4.5.0\/dist\/h3-js.umd.js\"]}];var T=[\/(^|\\.)gibs\\.earthdata\\.nasa\\.gov$\/i,\/(^|\\.)eonet\\.gsfc\\.nasa\\.gov$\/i,\/(^|\\.)power\\.larc\\.nasa\\.gov$\/i,\/(^|\\.)earthquake\\.usgs\\.gov$\/i,\/(^|\\.)open-meteo\\.com$\/i,\/(^|\\.)openfreemap\\.org$\/i,\/(^|\\.)openstreetmap\\.org$\/i,\/(^|\\.)cartocdn\\.com$\/i,\/(^|\\.)arcgisonline\\.com$\/i,\/(^|\\.)maplibre\\.org$\/i,\/(^|\\.)protomaps\\.com$\/i,\/(^|\\.)versatiles\\.org$\/i,\/(^|\\.)amazonaws\\.com$\/i,\/(^|\\.)raw\\.githubusercontent\\.com$\/i,\/(^|\\.)media\\.githubusercontent\\.com$\/i,\/(^|\\.)geoboundaries\\.org$\/i,\/(^|\\.)jsdelivr\\.net$\/i,\/(^|\\.)unpkg\\.com$\/i,\/(^|\\.)cdn[j]s\\.cloudflare\\.com$\/i,\/(^|\\.)googleapis\\.com$\/i,\/(^|\\.)gstatic\\.com$\/i];var W=n.nexusLiveStrings?n.nexusLiveStrings:{};var H={label:W.label?W.label:\"Load the live map\",note:\"Some layers of this map come from another service. They load only when you ask.\"};var J=[\"experience\",\"external\",\"optional-content\",\"embeds\",\"media\"];var v=[],f=[],C=0;function z(e,t,r,a){if(typeof e!==\"string\"){return\"\"}if(e.slice(0,8).toLowerCase()!==\"https:\/\/\"){return\"\"}var i=\/^https:\\\/\\\/([A-Za-z0-9.-]+)(?::443)?(\\\/[^?#]*)?(\\?[^#]*)?\/.exec(e);if(!i){return\"\"}var o=i[1].toLowerCase(),s=i[2]?i[2]:\"\/\",R=i[3]?i[3]:\"\";for(var m=0;m<t.length;m++){var h=t[m],L=\"\";if(h.subs){var M=\".\"+h.host;if(o.length<=M.length){continue}if(o.slice(o.length-M.length)!==M){continue}L=o.slice(0,o.length-M.length);if(h.subs.indexOf(L)<0){continue}}else if(o!==h.host){continue}if(!new RegExp(h.path).test(s)){continue}return r+a+h.to.slice(9)+(L?\"\/\"+L:\"\")+s+R}return\"\"}var O=n.location.protocol===\"https:\"?n.location.origin:n.location.protocol===\"http:\"?n.location.origin:\"\";var u=typeof n.NX_DATA_BASE===\"string\"?n.NX_DATA_BASE:\"\/nx-data\/\";if(u.charAt(u.length-1)!==\"\/\"){u+=\"\/\"}var D=O!==\"\"?n.NX_DATA!==false:false;function F(e){if(!e){return\"\"}if(typeof e===\"string\"){return e}if(e.url){return String(e.url)}if(e.href){return String(e.href)}return String(e)}function p(e){return D?z(F(e),B,O,u):\"\"}var k={};function oe(e){var t=e.slice(O.length+u.length);return t.slice(0,t.indexOf(\"\/\"))}function j(e,t){var r=oe(e),a=k[r]=k[r]||{req:0,ok:0,fail:0};a[t]++}function se(){try{if(n.localStorage.getItem(A)===\"1\"){return true}}catch(e){}try{return n.sessionStorage.getItem(A)===\"1\"}catch(e){return false}}function $(){var e=n.nexusConsent;if(!e){return null}return typeof e.allows===\"function\"?e:null}function le(){var e=n.nexusConsent;if(!e){return false}if(typeof e.granted!==\"function\"){return false}for(var t=0;t<J.length;t++){try{if(e.granted(J[t])){return true}}catch(r){}}return false}function I(e,t){if(typeof e.features!==\"function\"){return false}try{return e.features().indexOf(t)>=0}catch(r){return false}}function Y(e){var t=n.nexusConsent;if(!t){return false}if(typeof t.switchedOff!==\"function\"){return false}try{return t.switchedOff(e)===true}catch(r){return false}}function b(){var e=$();if(e){var t=I(e,\"map-embeds\")?\"map-embeds\":\"maps\";try{if(e.allows(t)===true){return true}}catch(r){}}return se()?true:le()}function d(e){var t=e?e:\"maps\";if(t===\"map-embeds\"){return b()}return!Y(t===\"globe\"?\"globe\":\"maps\")?!Y(\"maps\"):false}function ce(e){try{var t=new URL(F(e),l.baseURI);if(t.protocol!==\"http:\"){if(t.protocol!==\"https:\"){return\"\"}}return t.origin===n.location.origin?\"\":t.hostname}catch(r){return\"\"}}var Z=0;function g(e){var t=ce(e);if(!t){return false}var r=false;for(var a=0;a<T.length;a++){if(T[a].test(t)){r=true;break}}if(!r){return false}if(p(e)){return!d(\"maps\")}if(b()){return false}C++;Z++;return true}var q=0;function c(){if(q){return}q=setTimeout(function(){q=0;U()},250)}function y(e){setTimeout(function(){try{e.dispatchEvent(new Event(\"error\"))}catch(t){}},0)}var N=n.fetch;if(N){n.fetch=function(e,t){var r=p(e);if(r){if(!d(\"maps\")){C++;c();return Promise.reject(new TypeError(\"Maps are switched off in your privacy choices\"))}var a=e;if(typeof e===\"string\"){a=r}else if(n.Request?e instanceof n.Request:false){a=new n.Request(r,e)}else{a=r}j(r,\"req\");var i=arguments.length>1?N.call(n,a,t):N.call(n,a);i.then(function(o){j(r,o.ok?\"ok\":\"fail\")},function(o){if(o?o.name!==\"AbortError\":true){j(r,\"fail\")}});return i}if(g(e)){c();return Promise.reject(new TypeError(\"Blocked until the live map is loaded\"))}return N.apply(this,arguments)}}var x=n.XMLHttpRequest?n.XMLHttpRequest.prototype:null;if(x){var fe=x.open,ue=x.send;x.open=function(e,t){var r=p(t);if(r){arguments[1]=r}this.__nxLiveUrl=r?r:t;return fe.apply(this,arguments)};x.send=function(){if(g(this.__nxLiveUrl)){c();y(this);return}return ue.apply(this,arguments)}}var w=n.HTMLImageElement?Object.getOwnPropertyDescriptor(n.HTMLImageElement.prototype,\"src\"):null;if(w){if(w.set){Object.defineProperty(n.HTMLImageElement.prototype,\"src\",{configurable:true,enumerable:w.enumerable,get:w.get,set:function(e){var t=p(e);if(g(e)){c();y(this);return}w.set.call(this,t?t:e)}})}}var _=n.Element?n.Element.prototype.setAttribute:null;if(_){n.Element.prototype.setAttribute=function(e,t){if(e===\"src\"){if(this.tagName===\"IMG\"){if(g(t)){c();y(this);return}var r=p(t);if(r){return _.call(this,e,r)}}}return _.apply(this,arguments)}}function Q(e){if(!e){return false}var t=e.tagName===\"SCRIPT\"?\"src\":e.tagName===\"LINK\"?\"href\":\"\";if(!t){return false}var r=e.getAttribute?e.getAttribute(t):\"\";var a=r?p(r):\"\";if(a){_.call(e,t,a);return false}return g(e[t])}if(n.Node){var pe=n.Node.prototype.appendChild,de=n.Node.prototype.insertBefore;n.Node.prototype.appendChild=function(e){if(Q(e)){c();y(e);return e}return pe.apply(this,arguments)};n.Node.prototype.insertBefore=function(e){if(Q(e)){c();y(e);return e}return de.apply(this,arguments)}}var S=n.Worker;if(S?D:false){var ge=\"(function(){var T=\"+JSON.stringify(B)+\",O=\"+JSON.stringify(O)+\",B=\"+JSON.stringify(u)+\",R=\"+z.toString()+',f=self.fetch;if(!f){return;}self.fetch=function(i,o){var u=typeof i===\"string\"?i:(i?(i.url?i.url:String(i)):\"\"),r=R(u,T,O,B);if(r){i=(typeof i===\"string\"?r:(typeof Request!==\"undefined\"?(i instanceof Request?new Request(r,i):r):r));}return arguments.length>1?f.call(self,i,o):f.call(self,i);};})();\\n';var P=function(e,t){if(!(this instanceof P)){return new S(e,t)}try{var r=new URL(String(e),l.baseURI);if(r.protocol===\"blob:\"?true:r.origin===n.location.origin){var a=t?t.type===\"module\":false;var i=ge+(a?\"import \"+JSON.stringify(r.href)+\";\\n\":\"importScripts(\"+JSON.stringify(r.href)+\");\\n\");return new S(URL.createObjectURL(new Blob([i],{type:\"text\/javascript\"})),t)}}catch(o){}return new S(e,t)};P.prototype=S.prototype;try{n.Worker=P}catch(e){}}var V='[data-nx-map=\"ctx-field\"],[data-nx-le],[data-nx-eo],[data-grx-globe],[data-grx-obs],.nx-sb[data-nx-sb]';function ee(){var e=[l];var t=l.querySelectorAll(\"*\");for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){if(t[r].shadowRoot){e.push(t[r].shadowRoot)}}return e}function G(){return d(\"maps\")?Z>0?!b():false:true}function te(){var e=$();if(e){if(typeof e.enable===\"function\"){if(!d(\"maps\")){try{e.enable(\"maps\",\"site\")}catch(t){}try{e.enable(\"globe\",\"site\")}catch(t){}}if(I(e,\"map-embeds\")){try{e.enable(\"map-embeds\",\"site\")}catch(t){}}else{try{e.enable(\"maps\",\"site\")}catch(t){}}E();return}}try{n.localStorage.setItem(A,\"1\")}catch(t){try{n.sessionStorage.setItem(A,\"1\")}catch(r){}}E()}function me(e,t){var r=e.createElement(\"button\");r.type=\"button\";r.textContent=H.label;r.setAttribute(\"style\",\"pointer-events:auto;min-height:44px;min-width:44px;padding:0 18px;cursor:pointer;font:inherit;font-weight:600;font-size:14px;line-height:1.2;border-radius:2px;border:1px solid var(--nx-border-strong,#8a8a8a);background:var(--nx-text-primary,#111);color:var(--nx-bg-canvas,#fff)\");var a=\"nx-live-note-\"+Math.floor(Math.random()*1e9);r.setAttribute(\"aria-describedby\",a);r.addEventListener(\"click\",te);r.addEventListener(\"focus\",function(){r.style.outline=\"2px solid var(--nx-focus,#4c9aff)\";r.style.outlineOffset=\"2px\"});r.addEventListener(\"blur\",function(){r.style.outline=\"\"});var i=e.createElement(\"span\");i.id=a;i.textContent=H.note;i.setAttribute(\"style\",\"pointer-events:none;font-size:12px;line-height:1.4;padding:3px 7px;border-radius:2px;background:var(--nx-bg-canvas,#fff);color:var(--nx-text-secondary,#333);border:1px solid var(--nx-border-hairline,#bbb);max-width:34em\");t.appendChild(r);t.appendChild(i)}function he(e){var t=e.ownerDocument;var r=t.createElement(\"div\");r.className=\"nx-live-gate\";r.setAttribute(\"style\",\"position:absolute;inset-block-start:10px;inset-inline-start:10px;z-index:6;display:flex;flex-direction:column;align-items:flex-start;gap:6px;max-width:calc(100% - 20px);pointer-events:none;font:inherit\");var a=$();var i=false;if(a){if(typeof a.placeholder===\"function\"){try{var o=t.createElement(\"div\");o.setAttribute(\"style\",\"pointer-events:auto\");r.appendChild(o);a.placeholder(o,d(\"maps\")?I(a,\"map-embeds\")?\"map-embeds\":\"maps\":\"maps\");i=o.childNodes.length>0;if(!i){r.removeChild(o)}}catch(s){i=false}}}if(!i){me(t,r)}return r}function U(){if(!G()){return}var e=ee();for(var t=0;t<e.length;t++){var r=e[t].querySelectorAll(V);for(var a=0;a<r.length;a++){var i=r[a];if(i.getAttribute(\"data-nx-live-gate\")){continue}if(i.closest(\".nx-live-gate\")){continue}var o=i.getBoundingClientRect();if(o.width<120){continue}var s=i.querySelector(\".le-stage,.eo-stage\");if(!s){if(i.hasAttribute(\"data-nx-le\")?true:i.hasAttribute(\"data-nx-eo\")){continue}s=i}i.setAttribute(\"data-nx-live-gate\",\"1\");var R=n.getComputedStyle(s);if(R.position===\"static\"){s.style.position=\"relative\"}var m=he(s);s.appendChild(m);f.push({host:i,wrap:m,stage:s})}}ve()}function ve(){for(var e=0;e<f.length;e++){var t=f[e].stage,r=t?t.querySelector(\".nx-wm-presets\"):null;var a=r?r.getBoundingClientRect():null;if(a?a.height>0:false){var i=Math.round(a.bottom-t.getBoundingClientRect().top+8)+\"px\";if(f[e].wrap.style.insetBlockStart!==i){f[e].wrap.style.insetBlockStart=i}}}}function be(){for(var e=0;e<f.length;e++){try{f[e].wrap.remove()}catch(t){}try{f[e].host.removeAttribute(\"data-nx-live-gate\")}catch(t){}}f=[]}function ye(e,t,r){v.push({name:e,selector:t,fn:r});if(X){try{r(\"on\")}catch(a){}}}function xe(e){for(var t=0;t<v.length;t++){try{v[t].fn(e)}catch(r){}}}function we(){var e=[],t=ee();for(var r=0;r<t.length;r++){var a=t[r].querySelectorAll(V);for(var i=0;i<a.length;i++){var o=false;for(var s=0;s<v.length;s++){try{if(a[i].matches(v[s].selector)){o=true;break}}catch(R){}}if(!o){e.push(a[i])}}}return e}function Se(e){if(C===0){return}if(we().length===0){return}var t=e?\"on\":\"off\";try{if(n.sessionStorage.getItem(K)===t){return}n.sessionStorage.setItem(K,t)}catch(r){return}n.location.reload()}function re(){return!G()}var X=re();var ne=b();function E(){var e=re(),t=b(),r=e!==X?true:t!==ne;ne=t;if(!r){if(!e){c()}return}X=e;if(e){be()}xe(e?\"on\":\"off\");if(!e){c()}try{l.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(\"nexus:live-map\",{detail:{granted:e}}))}catch(a){}Se(e)}function ae(){U();if(n.MutationObserver){var e=new n.MutationObserver(function(){if(!G()){return}c()});e.observe(l.documentElement,{childList:true,subtree:true});setTimeout(function(){e.disconnect()},2e4)}}if(l.readyState===\"loading\"){l.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",ae)}else{ae()}n.addEventListener(\"load\",function(){setTimeout(U,400)});l.addEventListener(\"nexus-consent:ready\",E);l.addEventListener(\"nexus-consent:change\",E);var ie=0;var Ee=setInterval(function(){ie++;E();if(ie>40){clearInterval(Ee)}},400);n.NXData={url:function(e){return p(e)},table:B,base:u,on:D,stats:function(){return JSON.parse(JSON.stringify(k))}};n.NXLive={allowed:d,blocked:g,grant:te,register:ye,hosts:T.length,data:n.NXData}})();<\/script><style>.pix-dark-mode-switch, .bx-color-mode-toggle, .color-switcher, .page-headline { display: none !important; }<\/style><script type=\"text\/x-nexus\" class=\"_iub_cs_skip\" id=\"nxe-mount\" data-nx-run=\"mount\">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<\/script><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\" id=\"nxe-boot\">if(typeof window.__nxStill!==\"function\")window.__nxStill=function(){try{if(document.documentElement.hasAttribute(\"data-nx-still\"))return true;if(document.body?\/(?:^|\\s)mdp-readabler-stop-animations(?:\\s|$)\/.test(document.body.className):false)return true;var _=JSON.parse(window.localStorage.getItem(\"readabler\")||\"{}\");return _?_.stopAnimations===true||_.stopAnimations===\"true\"||_.stopAnimations===1:false}catch(K){return false}};(function(){function _(r,i){var f=atob(r),o=new Uint8Array(f.length),e;for(e=0;e< f.length;e++){o[e]=f.charCodeAt(e)}var s=0,a=0,u=0,n=new Uint8Array(Math.max(1024,o.length*6)),t=0;var c=[3,4,5,6,7,8,9,10,11,13,15,17,19,23,27,31,35,43,51,59,67,83,99,115,131,163,195,227,258];var d=[0,0,0,0,0,0,0,0,1,1,1,1,2,2,2,2,3,3,3,3,4,4,4,4,5,5,5,5,0];var m=[1,2,3,4,5,7,9,13,17,25,33,49,65,97,129,193,257,385,513,769,1025,1537,2049,3073,4097,6145,8193,12289,16385,24577];var E=[0,0,0,0,1,1,2,2,3,3,4,4,5,5,6,6,7,7,8,8,9,9,10,10,11,11,12,12,13,13];var lt=[16,17,18,0,8,7,9,6,10,5,11,4,12,3,13,2,14,1,15];function b(h){while(u< h){if(s>=o.length){throw new Error(\"nx-inflate: truncated\")}a|=o[s++]<< u;u+=8}var w=a%(1<< h);a>>>=h;u-=h;return w}function S(h,w,v){var g=new Uint16Array(16),A=new Uint16Array(16),p=new Uint16Array(v),x;for(x=0;x< v;x++){g[h[w+x]]++}g[0]=0;for(x=1;x<16;x++){A[x]=A[x-1]+g[x-1]}for(x=0;x< v;x++){if(h[w+x]){p[A[h[w+x]]++]=x}}return{count:g,sym:p}}function P(h){var w=0,v=0,g=0,A,p;for(A=1;A<16;A++){w|=b(1);p=h.count[A];if(w-p< v){return h.sym[g+(w-v)]}g+=p;v+=p;v<<=1;w<<=1}throw new Error(\"nx-inflate: bad code\")}function B(h){if(t+h<=n.length){return}var w=new Uint8Array(Math.max(n.length*2,t+h));w.set(n.subarray(0,t));n=w}var q=null,Z=null,k=0;while(!k){k=b(1);var J=b(2),H,F;if(J===0){a=0;u=0;var R=o[s]|o[s+1]<<8;s+=4;B(R);n.set(o.subarray(s,s+R),t);t+=R;s+=R;continue}if(J===1){if(!q){var tt=new Uint8Array(288),nt=new Uint8Array(30);for(e=0;e<288;e++){tt[e]=e<144?8:e<256?9:e<280?7:8}for(e=0;e<30;e++){nt[e]=5}q=S(tt,0,288);Z=S(nt,0,30)}H=q;F=Z}else if(J===2){var G=b(5)+257,et=b(5)+1,xt=b(4)+4,N=new Uint8Array(320),rt=new Uint8Array(19);for(e=0;e< xt;e++){rt[lt[e]]=b(3)}var ht=S(rt,0,19),I=0;while(I< G+et){var $=P(ht),X=0,at=0;if($<16){N[I++]=$;continue}if($===16){if(!I){throw new Error(\"nx-inflate: bad repeat\")}at=N[I-1];X=3+b(2)}else if($===17){X=3+b(3)}else{X=11+b(7)}while(X--){N[I++]=at}}H=S(N,0,G);F=S(N,G,et)}else{throw new Error(\"nx-inflate: bad block\")}for(;;){var y=P(H);if(y<256){B(1);n[t++]=y;continue}if(y===256){break}y-=257;var it=c[y]+b(d[y]),ot=P(F),ut=m[ot]+b(E[ot]);if(ut>t){throw new Error(\"nx-inflate: bad distance\")}B(it);for(var ft=0;ft< it;ft++){n[t]=n[t-ut];t++}}}return i?n.subarray(0,t):new TextDecoder(\"utf-8\").decode(n.subarray(0,t))}if(typeof window.__nxInflate!==\"function\"){window.__nxInflate=_}function K(r){var i=_(r,true),f=i[0]|i[1]<<8|i[2]<<16|i[3]<<24;var o=i.subarray(4+f);function e(s,a){var u=\"\",n=o.subarray(s,s+a);for(var t=0;a>t;t+=8192){u+=String.fromCharCode.apply(null,n.subarray(t,t+8192))}return btoa(u)}return JSON.parse(new TextDecoder(\"utf-8\").decode(i.subarray(4,4+f)),function(s,a){return a?a.$b?e(a.$b[0],a.$b[1]):a:a})}if(typeof window.__nxUnpack!==\"function\"){window.__nxUnpack=K}if(typeof window.__nxLate!==\"function\"){window.__nxLate=function(r,i){if(document.readyState!==\"loading\"){return null}if(!document.querySelector('template[data-nx-libs-last~=\"'+r+'\"]')){return null}return new Promise(function(f,o){document.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",function(){var e=i();if(e){f(e)}else{o(new Error(\"nx-late: \"+r))}},{once:true})})}}if(typeof window.__nxAsset!==\"function\"){var U={};window.__nxAsset=function(r,i){if(U[r]){return U[r]}var f=document.getElementById(\"nxe-boot\"),o=[],e=window.NX_ASSET_BASE,s=f?f.getAttribute(\"data-nx-asset-base\"):\"\";if(e){o.push(String(e))}if(s){o.push(s)}o.push(\"\/wp-content\/uploads\/nexus-assets\/\");function a(t){if(!i){return t}return crypto.subtle.digest(\"SHA-256\",new TextEncoder().encode(t)).then(function(c){if(\"sha256-\"+btoa(String.fromCharCode.apply(null,new Uint8Array(c)))!==i){throw new Error(\"nx-asset: integrity\")}return t})}function u(t){if(t>=o.length){return Promise.reject(new Error(\"nx-asset: \"+r))}var c=o[t].charAt(o[t].length-1)===\"\/\"?o[t]:o[t]+\"\/\";return fetch(c+r,{credentials:\"omit\"}).then(function(d){if(!d.ok){throw new Error(\"nx-asset: \"+d.status)}return d.text()}).then(a).then(null,function(){return u(t+1)})}var n=u(0);U[r]=n;n.then(null,function(){delete U[r]});return n}}if(typeof window.__nxText!==\"function\"){window.__nxText=function(r){if(!r){return Promise.reject(new Error(\"nx-text: none\"))}var i=r.getAttribute(\"data-nx-asset\");if(i?!r.textContent:false){return window.__nxAsset(i,r.getAttribute(\"data-nx-sri\")||\"\")}return Promise.resolve(r.textContent)}}var j=null;function Q(r){var i=window.NX_RUNTIME||{},f=i.base||window.NX_RUNTIME_BASE||\"\";if(!f||!window.fetch){return Promise.resolve(null)}if(!j){j=fetch(f+\"manifest.json\",{credentials:\"same-origin\",cache:\"no-store\"}).then(function(o){return o.ok?o.json():null}).then(null,function(){return null})}return j.then(function(o){var e=o?(o.files||o)[r.replace(\/\\.[0-9a-f]{12}(\\.js)$\/,\"$1\")]:null;return e?e.file?[f+e.file,e.sri||\"\"]:null:null})}function st(r){var i=r.getAttribute(\"data-nx-asset\");if(i?!r.textContent:false){return window.__nxAsset(i,r.getAttribute(\"data-nx-sri\")||\"\").then(function(n){return window.__nxInflate(n)})}var f=r.getAttribute(\"data-nx-src\");if(f?!r.textContent:false){var o=window.NX_RUNTIME||{},e=o.base||window.NX_RUNTIME_BASE||\"\",s=(o.files||{})[f.replace(\/\\.[0-9a-f]{12}(\\.js)$\/,\"$1\")]||null,a=[];if(e){a.push([e+f,r.getAttribute(\"data-nx-sri\")||\"\"])}if(s?!!s.url:false){a.push([s.url,s.sri||\"\"])}var u=function(n){if(n===a.length?!a.live:false){a.live=true;return Q(f).then(function(c){if(!c){throw new Error(\"nx-lazy: \"+f)}a.push(c);return u(n)})}if(n>=a.length){return Promise.reject(new Error(\"nx-lazy: \"+f))}var t={credentials:\"same-origin\"};if(a[n][1]){t.integrity=a[n][1]}return fetch(a[n][0],t).then(function(c){if(!c.ok){throw new Error(\"nx-lazy: \"+c.status)}return c.text()}).then(null,function(){return u(n+1)})};return u(0)}return Promise.resolve(window.__nxInflate(r.textContent))}function ct(r){var i=r[0].getAttribute(\"data-nx-on-sight\")||\"[data-nx-map]\",f=null,o=false;function e(){if(o){return}o=true;if(f){f.disconnect()}var a=document.querySelectorAll(\"script[data-nx-on-sight][data-nx-asset]:not([data-nx-run])\"),u=[];for(var n=0;n!==a.length;n++){(function(t){if(t.textContent){return}u.push(window.__nxAsset(t.getAttribute(\"data-nx-asset\"),t.getAttribute(\"data-nx-sri\")||\"\").then(function(c){t.textContent=c;t.removeAttribute(\"data-nx-asset\")},function(){t.setAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\",\"failed\")}))})(a[n])}Promise.all(u.concat(r.map(function(t){return st(t).then(null,function(){return null})}))).then(function(t){var c=t.slice(u.length);for(var d=0;d!==r.length;d++){if(c[d]===null){r[d].setAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\",\"failed\");continue}var m=document.createElement(\"script\");m.className=\"_iub_cs_skip\";m.setAttribute(\"data-nx-runtime\",r[d].getAttribute(\"data-nx-run\"));m.textContent=c[d];(document.head||document.documentElement).appendChild(m);r[d].setAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\",\"true\")}try{document.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(\"nexus:lazy-ready\"))}catch(E){}})}function s(){if(o){return}var a=[document],u=document.querySelectorAll(\".nxe-host\"),n=[],t,c;for(t=0;t!==u.length;t++){if(u[t].shadowRoot){a.push(u[t].shadowRoot)}}for(t=0;t!==a.length;t++){c=a[t].querySelectorAll(i);for(var d=0;d!==c.length;d++){n.push(c[d])}}if(!n.length){return}if(!window.IntersectionObserver){e();return}f=f||new IntersectionObserver(function(m){for(var E=0;E!==m.length;E++){if(m[E].isIntersecting){e();return}}},{rootMargin:\"800px 0px 800px 0px\"});for(t=0;t!==n.length;t++){if(!n[t].__nxLazySeen){n[t].__nxLazySeen=true;f.observe(n[t])}}}document.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\",s);document.addEventListener(\"nexus:runtime-ready\",s);window.addEventListener(\"load\",s);setTimeout(s,0)}var V=document.querySelectorAll(\"script[data-nx-run]\"),C=[],z=[];for(var D=0;D< V.length;D++){var l=V[D];if(l.hasAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\")){continue}if(l.hasAttribute(\"data-nx-on-sight\")){l.setAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\",\"waiting\");z.push(l);continue}if(l.hasAttribute(\"data-nx-src\")?!l.textContent:false){l.setAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\",\"loading\");C.push(l);continue}if(l.hasAttribute(\"data-nx-asset\")?!l.textContent:false){l.setAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\",\"loading\");C.push(l);continue}l.setAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\",\"true\");try{var L=document.createElement(\"script\");L.className=\"_iub_cs_skip\";L.setAttribute(\"data-nx-runtime\",l.getAttribute(\"data-nx-run\"));L.textContent=window.__nxInflate(l.textContent);(document.head||document.documentElement).appendChild(L)}catch(r){l.setAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\",\"failed\")}}if(z.length){ct(z)}if(!C.length){return}var W=window.NX_RUNTIME||{},Y=W.base||window.NX_RUNTIME_BASE||\"\",T=window.__nxMount,O=[];if(typeof T===\"function\"){window.__nxMount=function(r){O.push(r)}}function dt(){if(typeof T===\"function\"){window.__nxMount=T;for(var r=0;r< O.length;r++){try{T(O[r])}catch(i){}}}try{document.dispatchEvent(new CustomEvent(\"nexus:runtime-ready\"))}catch(i){}}function M(r){if(r>=C.length){dt();return}var i=C[r],f=i.getAttribute(\"data-nx-src\")||\"\",o=W.files||{},e=[];if(i.hasAttribute(\"data-nx-asset\")){window.__nxAsset(i.getAttribute(\"data-nx-asset\"),i.getAttribute(\"data-nx-sri\")||\"\").then(function(u){var n=document.createElement(\"script\");n.className=\"_iub_cs_skip\";n.setAttribute(\"data-nx-runtime\",i.getAttribute(\"data-nx-run\"));n.textContent=window.__nxInflate(u);(document.head||document.documentElement).appendChild(n);i.setAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\",\"true\")}).then(null,function(){i.setAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\",\"failed\")}).then(function(){M(r+1)});return}var s=o[f.replace(\/\\.[0-9a-f]{12}(\\.js)$\/,\"$1\")]||null;if(Y){e.push([Y+f,i.getAttribute(\"data-nx-sri\")||\"\"])}if(s?!!s.url:false){e.push([s.url,s.sri||\"\"])}function a(u){if(u===e.length?!e.live:false){e.live=true;Q(f).then(function(t){if(t){e.push(t)}a(u)});return}if(u>=e.length){i.setAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\",\"failed\");M(r+1);return}var n=document.createElement(\"script\");n.className=\"_iub_cs_skip\";n.setAttribute(\"data-nx-runtime\",i.getAttribute(\"data-nx-run\"));if(e[u][1]){n.integrity=e[u][1]}n.onload=function(){i.setAttribute(\"data-nx-ran\",\"true\");M(r+1)};n.onerror=function(){if(n.parentNode){n.parentNode.removeChild(n)}a(u+1)};n.src=e[u][0];(document.head||document.documentElement).appendChild(n)}a(0)}M(0)})();<\/script><div class=\"nxe-host\" data-nxe-embed=\"nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full\"><div class=\"nxe\" id=\"nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full\" data-inst=\"gcri\" data-host=\"gcri\" data-nr-kit=\"true\" data-nr-pub=\"true\" data-theme=\"light\" data-grammar=\"atlas\" lang=\"en\" data-nx-css=\"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\"><style>#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe{display:block;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:1180px;margin:0 auto;padding:0 16px;font-family:ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,\"Segoe UI\",sans-serif;line-height:1.55;overflow-wrap:break-word}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe :where(*,*::before,*::after){box-sizing:inherit}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe :where(section,header,footer,nav,aside){display:block;margin:0 0 32px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe :where(h1,h2,h3,h4){line-height:1.2;margin:24px 0 12px;font-weight:600}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe :where(p,ul,ol,dl,table,figure,details){margin:0 0 16px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe :where(ul,ol){padding-left:20px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe a{color:inherit;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:2px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;display:block;overflow-x:auto}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe :where(th,td){padding:6px 8px;text-align:left;vertical-align:top;border-bottom:1px solid;border-color:inherit}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe svg{display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-03-full.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SR-03<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Strategic Systems<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Trade moves through a few narrow places<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. A chokepoint closure that overlaps a Red Sea diversion and high freight rates<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Supply chains are the networks that move goods, energy and inputs between producers and users. The 2024 to 2026 evidence shows the same mechanisms at work in very different events. Seaborne trade volume grew 2.2 percent in 2024, but distance-adjusted trade grew 5.9 percent to 66,781 billion ton-miles, the fastest pace since 2011, because ships were rerouted around the Cape of Good Hope<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. The Suez Canal handles about 10 percent of maritime trade volume and 22 percent of container trade, and its tonnage was still 70 percent below 2023 levels in May 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. From early March 2026 the Strait of Hormuz, which carried about 20.7 million barrels of oil a day in 2024, saw daily transits fall from about 130 to 6, and Middle East crude oil production shut-ins tied to the closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026, against 25.2 million barrels a day of production in February<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup>. About one third of seaborne fertiliser trade normally passes through it<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>. Even so, the WTO March 2026 baseline put 2026 merchandise volume growth at 1.9 percent, after 4.6 percent in 2025, and at 1.4 percent if high energy prices persist<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>. China\u2019s April 2025 rare earth controls remain in place, and the October 2025 expansion is suspended only until 10 November 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup>. This baseline reads these events as mechanisms, not as a list. It ranks no route or country, attributes no attack and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the supply chains and chokepoints baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes: conflict, attacks on vessels, water levels and trade controls recur across routes.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Do supply chain disruptions have common causes?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Through shared dependence on a few straits, canals and processors.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How do disruptions spread?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Ton-miles rose 5.9 percent in 2024 against 2.2 percent for volume.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How large is the rerouting effect?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About one fifth of oil and LNG and about one third of seaborne fertiliser pass through Hormuz.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How exposed are energy and fertiliser flows?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Merchandise volume grew 4.6 percent in 2025 and the WTO March 2026 baseline for 2026 is 1.9 percent.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Has trade held up?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 72 percent of merchandise trade is on MFN terms.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Do trade rules still apply?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A composite of USD 4,429 per 40ft container in the last week of October 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What do freight rates show?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A chokepoint closure that overlaps a Red Sea diversion and high freight rates. SCN-SR03-CHK-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-007<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell from about 130 in February 2026 to 6 in March, a drop of about 95 percent, and sources differ on the February base.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-fig1-t\">Strait of Hormuz daily transits, 2026<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">February (about)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248130<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">March<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"4.6\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: UNCTAD rapid assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. The WTO cites 138 vessels a day before the closure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>; the drop is a Nexus derivation, method (3).<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">A closure of one strait removes a large share of oil, LNG and fertiliser flows at once, so buffers, bypass routes and the speed of reopening matter more than the cause. Daily counts differ by source and by what is counted<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">66,781<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion ton-miles<\/span><p>seaborne trade, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224895<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Hormuz transit drop, March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>WTO March 2026 baseline, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">72<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>trade on MFN terms<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4,429<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD per 40ft<\/span><p>Drewry composite, 29 Oct 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22481\/3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><\/span><p>seaborne fertiliser via Hormuz<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading trade as a network with narrow places.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people supply chain failure arrives as a higher price at the pump, on a food label or on a device.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Freight, insurance and fuel costs moved sharply, and projected canal revenue halved in one year.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Trade risk is well described route by route and thinly measured as a system.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the 2026 state of the world\u2019s supply chains, trade routes and chokepoints and the couplings through which it carries risk into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a trade-policy ranking, a threat attribution, a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.trade-restriction\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Export bans, sanctions or embargoes that cut access to goods, energy or inputs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">sanctions<\/a> or export-control opinion or an assessment of any carrier, port, state or company. Operation of routes, ports and canals rests with their owners, operators and competent authorities.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 supply chains and chokepoints edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024, chapter II: World shipping fleet and services (Suez Canal about 10 percent of maritime trade volume and 22 percent of container trade; Panama Canal about 3 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Maritime trade under pressure, growth set to stall in 2025 (news item; Suez Canal tonnage 70 percent below 2023 in May 2025; Shanghai Containerized Freight Index averaged 2,496 in 2024). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 March 2026; 2024 total oil flows: Hormuz 20.7, Malacca 22.5, Suez and SUMED 4.8, Bab el-Mandeb 4.1, Cape of Good Hope 9.3 million barrels a day). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, global oil markets (Brent averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026; Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026 against February production of 25.2, and were 5.0 in July and 6.7 in August). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), initial assessment of the Strait of Hormuz disruption of 10 March 2026 (about one third of global seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes), as reported by a Pakistani daily newspaper; the UNCTAD text itself was not opened. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, news release of 19 March 2026 (2025 merchandise volume growth 4.6 percent; 2026 baseline 1.9 percent; high-energy-price case 1.4 percent; Hormuz traffic from 138 vessels a day to almost zero). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>China Briefing (ed.), How will China\u2019s rare earth export controls impact industries and businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven elements; 9 October 2025 expansion to five more; suspended until 10 November 2026). Dezan Shira and Associates, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint (Today in Energy, 16 June 2025; about 20 million barrels a day, about one fifth of global LNG trade in 2024). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), World Trade Report 2026: A critical juncture for the world trading system (about 72 percent of merchandise trade on MFN terms). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Drewry (ed.), World Container Index (assessment of 29 October 2026; composite USD 4,429 per 40ft; Shanghai to Los Angeles USD 7,514; Shanghai to Rotterdam USD 3,686; two vessels transiting Hormuz and 62 vessels through Suez in the previous week). Drewry Shipping Consultants, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>News report, Facts about the Strait of Hormuz since its negotiated reopening (last updated 8 April 2026; Kpler: average of eight commodity carriers a day from 1 March to 7 April; Lloyd\u2019s List estimate of about 800 ships stuck in the Gulf; two-week ceasefire). Arab News Pakistan, Islamabad. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Trade moves through a few narrow places<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is supply chains and chokepoints risk concentrated?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry supply chains and chokepoints shocks into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which supply chains and chokepoints capabilities hold under compound stress?<\/li><li>What must 2027 evidence measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five mechanism chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Global trade is usually reported as flows between countries. The 2024 to 2026 evidence reads it as a network with narrow places: straits, canals and a few processing hubs. Ships carry most of the world\u2019s goods, and the routes they take decide cost, time and exposure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The causes repeat. Attacks on vessels moved Red Sea traffic around Africa in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Low water levels cut Panama Canal transits until mid-2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>. A war closed the Strait of Hormuz to most traffic from March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup>. Export licences govern a set of rare earth elements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The effects reach beyond shipping. About one fifth of oil and LNG and about one third of seaborne fertiliser normally pass through Hormuz<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>. Urea prices rose 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil by mid-April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Aggregate trade has held up. The WTO March 2026 baseline put 2026 merchandise volume growth at 1.9 percent after 4.6 percent in 2025, and 72 percent of merchandise trade still runs on MFN terms<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. The edition therefore asks four questions of every event: what was the common cause, how did it spread, what was shared, and what threshold was crossed. It makes no attribution and ranks no route.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-fig1-t\">How did the WTO see 2026 trade in March? Merchandise volume growth, percent<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">The March 2026 baseline put 2026 growth at 1.9 percent, after 4.6 percent in 2025, and 1.4 percent if high energy prices persist. The bars are an estimate and two forecasts and are not added<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">2025 estimate<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">4.6<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">March 2026 baseline<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"41.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">March 2026 high-energy-price case<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"30.4\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1.4<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2026.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>March 2026 baseline, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>high-energy-price case, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>merchandise volume growth, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22129.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Middle East export volumes, first quarter 2026, year on year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The supply chains and chokepoints-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for their supply chains and chokepoints content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">cooling<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation \u00b7 processing<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">safe supply \u00b7 hospitals<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">flows<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 desalination<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fuel \u00b7 fertiliser feedstock \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">freight \u00b7 hospital supply<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land use<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">withdrawals<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">biofuels<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">natural infrastructure<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydrology<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.chokepoint-blockage\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Closure of a narrow route on which much trade depends, such as a strait, canal, pass or bridge.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">strait closure<\/a> removes fuel and fertiliser inputs together.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2026 Hormuz<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CON \u2192 TRD \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Attacks on vessels reroute ships and lift distance.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2024 Red Sea<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 INF \u2192 TRD<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Low water levels cut canal transits.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> Panama to mid-2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Lost transit revenue reaches national budgets.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> Suez<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">MIN \u2192 TRD<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Export licences on processed minerals reach downstream makers.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2025 controls<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024, chapter II: World shipping fleet and services (Suez Canal about 10 percent of maritime trade volume and 22 percent of container trade; Panama Canal about 3 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, global oil markets (Brent averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026; Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026 against February production of 25.2, and were 5.0 in July and 6.7 in August). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>China Briefing (ed.), How will China\u2019s rare earth export controls impact industries and businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven elements; 9 October 2025 expansion to five more; suspended until 10 November 2026). Dezan Shira and Associates, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 March 2026; 2024 total oil flows: Hormuz 20.7, Malacca 22.5, Suez and SUMED 4.8, Bab el-Mandeb 4.1, Cape of Good Hope 9.3 million barrels a day). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint (Today in Energy, 16 June 2025; about 20 million barrels a day, about one fifth of global LNG trade in 2024). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), initial assessment of the Strait of Hormuz disruption of 10 March 2026 (about one third of global seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes), as reported by a Pakistani daily newspaper; the UNCTAD text itself was not opened. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (remarks to the 180th Council session, 28 April 2026; urea up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil by mid-April). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, news release of 19 March 2026 (2025 merchandise volume growth 4.6 percent; 2026 baseline 1.9 percent; high-energy-price case 1.4 percent; Hormuz traffic from 138 vessels a day to almost zero). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), World Trade Report 2026: A critical juncture for the world trading system (about 72 percent of merchandise trade on MFN terms). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>WTO and UNCTAD (eds.), Global goods trade resilient in Q1 2026 despite Middle East war (WTO news item of 31 July 2026; Middle East export volumes down 9.7 percent and import volumes down 11.9 percent year on year in the first quarter). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), fourth review of Egypt\u2019s arrangement (Suez Canal revenue USD 6.6 billion in FY2023\/24 and projected USD 3.6 billion in FY2024\/25), as reported by Hellenic Shipping News from Arab Finance; the IMF report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c1-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the supply chains and chokepoints baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-007\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell from about 130 in February 2026 to 6 in March, a drop of about 95 percent, and sources differ on the February base.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-fig1-t\">Strait of Hormuz daily transits, 2026<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">February (about)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248130<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">March<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"4.6\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: UNCTAD rapid assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. The WTO cites 138 vessels a day before the closure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>; the drop is a Nexus derivation, method (3).<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">A closure of one strait removes a large share of oil, LNG and fertiliser flows at once, so buffers, bypass routes and the speed of reopening matter more than the cause. Daily counts differ by source and by what is counted<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Verified transit counts, the duration of the closure and the pace of any return of traffic would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Trade<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-001\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Seaborne trade reached 12,720 million tons in 2024, up 2.2 percent, and 66,781 billion ton-miles, up 5.9 percent, the fastest rise since 2011, mainly because of Red Sea rerouting.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Infrastructure<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The detour around the Cape of Good Hope added about 30 percent to voyage lengths and an estimated 11 percent to container TEU-mile demand.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The Suez Canal handles about 10 percent of world maritime trade volume and 22 percent of container trade, and the Panama Canal about 3 percent; by June 2024 transits through both were down by over half from their peaks.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Suez Canal tonnage was still 70 percent below 2023 levels in May 2025, while the Panama Canal recorded 13,404 transits and 489.1 million tons in fiscal year 2025, up 19.3 and 15.6 percent.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The Strait of Hormuz carried 20.7 million barrels of oil a day in 2024 in the EIA table, about one fifth of global liquids consumption, and about one fifth of global LNG trade.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>CON<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-006\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Estimated Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026, against 25.2 million barrels a day of production in February, and were 6.7 in August. NOT BOUND at the close: Hormuz oil and LNG flow series after the second quarter of 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-007\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Daily transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell from about 130 in February 2026 to 6 in March, a drop of about 95 percent, and sources differ on the February base.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The WTO March 2026 baseline put 2026 merchandise volume growth at 1.9 percent after 4.6 percent in 2025, and at 1.4 percent if high energy prices persist, while UNCTAD projected 1.5 to 2.5 percent. NOT BOUND at the close: any later revision of the 2026 forecast.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The IMF projected Suez Canal revenue at USD 3.6 billion in fiscal year 2024\/25 against USD 6.6 billion a year earlier, with transit trade at about a third of pre-conflict levels.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Food<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About one third of seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes, normally passes through the Strait of Hormuz, and urea prices rose 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil by mid-April 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Minerals<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">China\u2019s April 2025 export controls on seven rare earth elements remain in force, and the October 2025 expansion to five more elements is suspended only until 10 November 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.9<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a chokepoint closure that overlaps a Red Sea diversion and high freight rates. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, news release of 19 March 2026 (2025 merchandise volume growth 4.6 percent; 2026 baseline 1.9 percent; high-energy-price case 1.4 percent; Hormuz traffic from 138 vessels a day to almost zero). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>News report, Facts about the Strait of Hormuz since its negotiated reopening (last updated 8 April 2026; Kpler: average of eight commodity carriers a day from 1 March to 7 April; Lloyd\u2019s List estimate of about 800 ships stuck in the Gulf; two-week ceasefire). Arab News Pakistan, Islamabad. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024, chapter II: World shipping fleet and services (Suez Canal about 10 percent of maritime trade volume and 22 percent of container trade; Panama Canal about 3 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Maritime trade under pressure, growth set to stall in 2025 (news item; Suez Canal tonnage 70 percent below 2023 in May 2025; Shanghai Containerized Freight Index averaged 2,496 in 2024). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Panama Canal Authority (ed.), Panama Canal maintains operational and financial strength (press release of 8 October 2025; fiscal year 2025: 13,404 transits and 489.1 million CP\/SUAB tons; preliminary and unaudited). Autoridad del Canal de Panama, Panama City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 March 2026; 2024 total oil flows: Hormuz 20.7, Malacca 22.5, Suez and SUMED 4.8, Bab el-Mandeb 4.1, Cape of Good Hope 9.3 million barrels a day). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint (Today in Energy, 16 June 2025; about 20 million barrels a day, about one fifth of global LNG trade in 2024). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, global oil markets (Brent averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026; Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026 against February production of 25.2, and were 5.0 in July and 6.7 in August). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), fourth review of Egypt\u2019s arrangement (Suez Canal revenue USD 6.6 billion in FY2023\/24 and projected USD 3.6 billion in FY2024\/25), as reported by Hellenic Shipping News from Arab Finance; the IMF report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), initial assessment of the Strait of Hormuz disruption of 10 March 2026 (about one third of global seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes), as reported by a Pakistani daily newspaper; the UNCTAD text itself was not opened. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (remarks to the 180th Council session, 28 April 2026; urea up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil by mid-April). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>China Briefing (ed.), How will China\u2019s rare earth export controls impact industries and businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven elements; 9 October 2025 expansion to five more; suspended until 10 November 2026). Dezan Shira and Associates, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c2-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">TRD \u00b7 Volume<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Seaborne trade volume, 2024<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">12,720<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million tons<\/span><p>up 2.2%.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">INF \u00b7 Distance<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Seaborne trade in ton-miles, 2024<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">66,781<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion ton-miles<\/span><p>up 5.9%, fastest since 2011.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Hormuz, 2024<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Total oil flow through the strait<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">20.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million b\/d<\/span><p>EIA table; LNG about one fifth of trade.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>EIA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CON \u00b7 Hormuz, 2026<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Crude oil shut-ins, March to June average<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">9.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million b\/d<\/span><p>against 25.2 produced in February.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>EIA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Trade outlook<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">WTO 2026 merchandise volume growth, March baseline<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>1.4% in the high-energy-price case.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>WTO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FOO \u00b7 Fertiliser<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Share of seaborne fertiliser trade through Hormuz<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22481\/3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">about 16 million tonnes<\/span><p>UNCTAD estimate, March 2026.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through supply chains and chokepoints, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries supply chains and chokepoints risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Desalination and pumping depend on energy; Gulf water <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>About one fifth of oil and LNG passes through Hormuz; oil production was shut in at scale in 2026.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>About one third of seaborne fertiliser passes through Hormuz; urea prices rose sharply.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Medical supply chains depend on freight and energy; not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Bulk trade routes and ports affect species movement; evidence not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2192 BIO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>Low water levels cut Panama Canal transits until mid-2024.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Canals, straits and ports: Suez about 10 percent of maritime trade volume.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>WTO March baseline of 1.9 percent volume growth in 2026; Suez revenue projected to halve.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Vessel-tracking data are the main evidence and were unreliable for Hormuz in 2026.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2194 TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>The share of trade growth from AI-enabling goods is not bound at the close.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Rare earth controls and concentrated refining: about 85 percent top-country refining share in 2025.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>The core system: 12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on supply chains and chokepoints, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>trade routes couple every sector<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>chokepoint closure with freight spike<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>desalination depends on energy and fuel flows<\/td><td>fuel loss at coastal plants<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>Hormuz-related oil shut-ins in 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.chokepoint-blockage\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Closure of a narrow route on which much trade depends, such as a strait, canal, pass or bridge.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">strait closure<\/a><\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food and agrifood<\/td><td>about one third of seaborne fertiliser via Hormuz<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>fertiliser and freight shocks<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>medical supply depends on freight and energy<\/td><td>port closure<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance and economy<\/td><td>WTO March baseline 1.9 percent<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>trade shock and price spike<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>high transport costs hit small island and least developed states hardest<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>rerouting costs<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>low water levels cut Panama transits<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>water-level limits on canals<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>port and route closures after hazards<\/td><td>concurrent closures<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>canal and strait transits<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>canal capacity limits<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>port cities depend on a few routes<\/td><td>port disruption<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>shipping routes shape pressure on ecosystems<\/td><td>route shifts<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>vessel tracking underpins chokepoint evidence<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>tracking data gaps<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>port and vessel <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> carry digital risk<\/td><td>systems disruption<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>MFN terms cover 72 percent of trade<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>; export controls<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>policy shocks<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>supply network science is mature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>data at operating scale<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 March 2026; 2024 total oil flows: Hormuz 20.7, Malacca 22.5, Suez and SUMED 4.8, Bab el-Mandeb 4.1, Cape of Good Hope 9.3 million barrels a day). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint (Today in Energy, 16 June 2025; about 20 million barrels a day, about one fifth of global LNG trade in 2024). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, global oil markets (Brent averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026; Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026 against February production of 25.2, and were 5.0 in July and 6.7 in August). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, news release of 19 March 2026 (2025 merchandise volume growth 4.6 percent; 2026 baseline 1.9 percent; high-energy-price case 1.4 percent; Hormuz traffic from 138 vessels a day to almost zero). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), initial assessment of the Strait of Hormuz disruption of 10 March 2026 (about one third of global seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes), as reported by a Pakistani daily newspaper; the UNCTAD text itself was not opened. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024, chapter II: World shipping fleet and services (Suez Canal about 10 percent of maritime trade volume and 22 percent of container trade; Panama Canal about 3 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (remarks to the 180th Council session, 28 April 2026; urea up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil by mid-April). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Stormy seas for global shipping: UNCTAD warns of uncertainty, volatility and rising costs (press release of 24 September 2025; 2025 volume growth 0.5 percent; port fees on certain vessels; alternative-fuel share 8 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Panama Canal Authority (ed.), Panama Canal maintains operational and financial strength (press release of 8 October 2025; fiscal year 2025: 13,404 transits and 489.1 million CP\/SUAB tons; preliminary and unaudited). Autoridad del Canal de Panama, Panama City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), World Trade Report 2026: A critical juncture for the world trading system (about 72 percent of merchandise trade on MFN terms). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>China Briefing (ed.), How will China\u2019s rare earth export controls impact industries and businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven elements; 9 October 2025 expansion to five more; suspended until 10 November 2026). Dezan Shira and Associates, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Acemoglu, D., Carvalho, V.M., Ozdaglar, A. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., The network origins of aggregate fluctuations, Econometrica 80(5), 1977 to 2016, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Carvalho, V.M., Nirei, M., Saito, Y.U. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., Supply chain disruptions: evidence from the Great East Japan <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/geophysical-hazard-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.seismic.earthquake\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Fault shaking and rupture\" data-td=\"Sudden slip on a fault releasing seismic waves that shake the ground and damage structures and lifelines.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H17\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/geo\/\" data-txl=\"Solid Earth\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/disaster-risk-reduction\/\" data-tal=\"Disaster Risk Reduction\">Earthquake<\/a>, Quarterly Journal of Economics 136(2), 1255 to 1321, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Barrot, J.-N. and Sauvagnat, J., Input specificity and the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks in production networks, Quarterly Journal of Economics 131(3), 1543 to 1592, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c3-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>22 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR03-CON-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Strait closure with energy and fertiliser knock-on<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>war closing a strait to most traffic<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>oil, LNG and fertiliser importers in South Asia and Europe<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>few bypass routes; thin stocks of fertiliser inputs<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>strategic stocks; bypass pipelines; alternative suppliers<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>ENE \u2192 FOO \u2192 HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR03-INF-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Red Sea diversion and loss of Suez capacity<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>attacks on vessels leading lines to route around Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>East Asia to Europe container trade, Egypt\u2019s canal revenue<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>longer voyages absorb ship capacity<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>route diversity; return of transits<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>TRD \u2192 FIN \u2192 DEV<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR03-MIN-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Export licensing of processed minerals<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>licence requirements on rare earth elements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>magnet, electronics and vehicle makers<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>concentrated refining; no short-run substitute<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>stocks; recycling; processing capacity outside the top refiner<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>MIN \u2192 TRD \u2192 AIC<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR03-INF-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Canal capacity limits from water levels<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>low water levels limiting transits<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>US East Coast and Asia container, LPG and bulk trade<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>single water source for a major canal<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>draft and slot management; recovery to 13,404 transits in FY2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 INF \u2192 TRD<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>annual<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>maritime security regime and trade facilitation rules widespread; implementation uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>vessel tracking and statistics; Hormuz series unreliable in 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>no common cross-chokepoint warning; shipping advisories are issued per event<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>critical raw materials and chips frameworks in force in the EU<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>strategic stock and spare ship capacity not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>rerouting around the Cape within weeks of the 2023 to 2024 attacks<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>canal operators recovered transits after the drought year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>recovery of Hormuz flows after 2026 not verified at close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>diversification of origins and destinations reported<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>support for importers of food and fuel not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>war-risk insurance cost reported to rise; premiums not bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>WTO trade facilitation and straits law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>canal expansions and port <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>; fleet partly ageing<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>seafarer and port workforce not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>supply network science mature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, global oil markets (Brent averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026; Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026 against February production of 25.2, and were 5.0 in July and 6.7 in August). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>FreightWaves (ed.), Suez container ships near low for all of 2025 (2 December 2025; container transits about 4.7 to 5.0 a day in July to November 2025; sources include Xeneta and a shipping agency). FreightWaves, Chattanooga. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Drewry (ed.), World Container Index (assessment of 29 October 2026; composite USD 4,429 per 40ft; Shanghai to Los Angeles USD 7,514; Shanghai to Rotterdam USD 3,686; two vessels transiting Hormuz and 62 vessels through Suez in the previous week). Drewry Shipping Consultants, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>China Briefing (ed.), How will China\u2019s rare earth export controls impact industries and businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven elements; 9 October 2025 expansion to five more; suspended until 10 November 2026). Dezan Shira and Associates, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Investment Monitor (ed.), China rare earth curbs put USD 6.5 trillion of output at risk, article of 16 July 2026 reporting the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (about 85 percent top-country rare earth refining share in 2025; investment down 9 percent in 2025); the IEA report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024, chapter II: World shipping fleet and services (Suez Canal about 10 percent of maritime trade volume and 22 percent of container trade; Panama Canal about 3 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Panama Canal Authority (ed.), Panama Canal maintains operational and financial strength (press release of 8 October 2025; fiscal year 2025: 13,404 transits and 489.1 million CP\/SUAB tons; preliminary and unaudited). Autoridad del Canal de Panama, Panama City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>IMO (ed.), SOLAS chapter XI-2 and the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (web page; mandatory Part A and guidance Part B; in force 1 July 2004). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), Trade Facilitation Agreement (web page; Bali Ministerial Conference 2013; in force 22 February 2017). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 28000:2022, Security and resilience: security management <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> for the supply chain. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), PortWatch, chokepoint transit and trade monitoring platform; the dashboard page returned no readable content and no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the EUR-Lex request returned no text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023\/1781 establishing a framework of measures for strengthening Europe\u2019s semiconductor ecosystem (Chips Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982), regime of transit passage through straits used for international navigation, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits (Montreux Convention), 1936, cited from memory. Observation year 1936. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Acemoglu, D., Carvalho, V.M., Ozdaglar, A. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., The network origins of aggregate fluctuations, Econometrica 80(5), 1977 to 2016, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Carvalho, V.M., Nirei, M., Saito, Y.U. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., Supply chain disruptions: evidence from the Great East Japan <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/geophysical-hazard-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.seismic.earthquake\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Fault shaking and rupture\" data-td=\"Sudden slip on a fault releasing seismic waves that shake the ground and damage structures and lifelines.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H17\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/geo\/\" data-txl=\"Solid Earth\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/disaster-risk-reduction\/\" data-tal=\"Disaster Risk Reduction\">Earthquake<\/a>, Quarterly Journal of Economics 136(2), 1255 to 1321, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Barrot, J.-N. and Sauvagnat, J., Input specificity and the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks in production networks, Quarterly Journal of Economics 131(3), 1543 to 1592, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Baldwin, R. and Freeman, R., Risks and global supply chains: what we know and what we need to know, Annual Review of Economics 14, 153 to 180, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Benigno, G., di Giovanni, J., Groen, J.J.J. and Noble, A.I., The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: a new tool to measure supply chain disruptions, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2022, cited from memory; the index page returned no definition. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c4-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">A chokepoint closure that overlaps a Red Sea diversion and high freight rates<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-SR03-CHK-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.chokepoint-blockage\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Closure of a narrow route on which much trade depends, such as a strait, canal, pass or bridge.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">strait closure<\/a> that removes energy and fertiliser flows while container ships still route around Africa<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>Hormuz, March 2026; Red Sea rerouting, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CON \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">transits through the strait fall by about 95 percent<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 TRD<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">tanker rates, war-risk cover and bunker costs rise<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">fertiliser deliveries are delayed and prices rise<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">ships stay on long routes, so capacity stays tight<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2024<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">importers face higher bills; canal revenue stays low<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 DEV<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">import-dependent economies cut spending<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-SR03-CHK-01 would travel through Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 CON to energy<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Transits through the strait fall by about 95 percent. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-03, scenario SCN-SR03-CHK-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Energy to trade<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Tanker rates, war-risk cover and bunker costs rise. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-03, scenario SCN-SR03-CHK-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Energy to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Fertiliser deliveries are delayed and prices rise. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-03, scenario SCN-SR03-CHK-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Trade to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Ships stay on long routes, so capacity stays tight. Analogue or source: 2024.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-03, scenario SCN-SR03-CHK-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Trade to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Importers face higher bills; canal revenue stays low. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-03, scenario SCN-SR03-CHK-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Finance to development<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Import-dependent economies cut spending. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-03, scenario SCN-SR03-CHK-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026, scenario SCN-SR03-CHK-01<\/a> (2026); Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, global oil markets (Brent averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026; Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026 against February production of 25.2, and were 5.0 in July and 6.7 in August). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c5-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The global baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>16 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>36 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading trade as a network with narrow places. Common causes recur across routes, disruptions spread through shared straits, canals and processors, and recovery is limited by thresholds such as transit capacity and stocks. Evidence is strongest for single routes and weakest for exposure that crosses several.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">INF-003 \u00b7 CON-007 \u00b7 MIN-010 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people supply chain failure arrives as a higher price at the pump, on a food label or on a device. The baseline asks that public debate treat trade routes as shared and keep recovery, not only prevention, in view.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">CON-006 \u00b7 FOO-009 \u00b7 FIN-008<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Freight, insurance and fuel costs moved sharply, and projected canal revenue halved in one year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-008 \u00b7 FIN-011<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Trade risk is well described route by route and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind exposure data, test the compound chokepoint loss, and map recovery thresholds before the next closure.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 C-01 \u00b7 C-03<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for supply chains and chokepoints. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability exist?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests show?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What changed in the year, and what renews?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> strategic desks<\/td><td>supply chain chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness<\/td><td>strategic editorial board<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard is a decision of the competent standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Ships carry most of the world\u2019s goods, and a few straits, canals and processing hubs decide cost and time. Reading each route alone understates how a fault in one becomes a fault in many. This edition reads the network.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>Trade is a network with narrow places<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Distance-adjusted trade grew 5.9 percent in 2024 against 2.2 percent for volume. UNCTAD reads the gap as fragility and inefficiency, not as strength. A route that works only by taking a longer way is a cost, not a buffer.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Rerouting is not resilience<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">A closure at Hormuz shut in oil production and cut fertiliser flows together. The fertiliser effect arrives later, at planting, and cannot be rescheduled without yield loss. This is why the baseline treats trade and food as one system.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Energy and food share a strait<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WTO data show world merchandise volume up 4.6 percent in 2025, while Middle East export volumes fell 9.7 percent year on year in the first quarter of 2026. A healthy total can hide a severe regional loss.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Aggregate trade can hold while parts fail<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 supply chains and chokepoints edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 supply chains and chokepoints readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 supply chains and chokepoints readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Nexus risk class: a risk whose hazard, consequences or causal chain crosses national borders and acts at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can assess or manage it alone.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/glossary\/global-risk\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Forum glossary\">Global risk<\/a> state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 6 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>national chapters in preparation<\/td><td>national chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments and published guidance that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, straits regime<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>transit passage<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Montreux Convention<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>signatory states<\/td><td>Turkish Straits<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>straits passage<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Constantinople Convention<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>signatory states<\/td><td>Suez Canal<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>canal passage<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Panama Canal treaties<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Panama and the United States<\/td><td>Panama<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>canal neutrality<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISPS Code, SOLAS chapter XI-2<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>ship and port security<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trade Facilitation Agreement<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WTO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>customs and transit<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO 28000:2022 supply chain security<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>security management<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO 31000:2018 risk management<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>risk process<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical Raw Materials Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>strategic raw materials<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chips Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>chip supply<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SAFE Framework of Standards<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Customs Organization<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>secure and facilitated trade<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The WTO set its March 2026 baseline for 2026 merchandise volume growth at 1.9 percent<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>China\u2019s suspension of its October 2025 rare earth controls runs to 10 November 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The US and several trading partners announced port fees on certain foreign-built or foreign-operated vessels in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Extension or lapse of the rare earth control suspension<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Rules on passage and security in straits after the 2026 closure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Port-fee measures on vessels and their effect on freight<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers supply chains and chokepoints assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the world\u2019s supply chains, trade routes and chokepoints and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>agency and organisation reports; chokepoint flow statistics; freight indices; peer-reviewed supply network literature<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Acemoglu et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2012<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>network origins of fluctuations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Carvalho et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>supply chain disruption after an <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/geophysical-hazard-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.seismic.earthquake\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Fault shaking and rupture\" data-td=\"Sudden slip on a fault releasing seismic waves that shake the ground and damage structures and lifelines.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H17\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/geo\/\" data-txl=\"Solid Earth\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/disaster-risk-reduction\/\" data-tal=\"Disaster Risk Reduction\">earthquake<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Barrot and Sauvagnat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2016<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>input specificity and shock propagation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Baldwin and Freeman<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>risks and global supply chains<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Benigno et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>working paper<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>supply chain pressure measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rodrigue<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>book<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>transport geography<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional flagships<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Review of Maritime Transport 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNCTAD<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>volume and ton-miles<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review of Maritime Transport 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNCTAD<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>canal shares<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hormuz rapid assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNCTAD<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>transit drop<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Trade Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WTO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>MFN share<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Trade Outlook and Statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WTO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>trade forecast<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Director-General remarks<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>fertiliser and food<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Statistics, flows and freight<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>World Oil Transit Chokepoints<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EIA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>chokepoint oil flows<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EIA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>Hormuz-related oil shut-ins<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Panama Canal fiscal year 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Panama Canal Authority<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>canal transits<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Container Index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Drewry<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>container freight<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF fourth review as reported<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>Suez revenue<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>mineral concentration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>USGS<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>rare earth production<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Semiconductor supply chain study<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>SIA and BCG<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>chip manufacturing location<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Treaties, standards and regulations<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>UN Convention on the Law of the Sea, straits<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>1982<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>transit passage<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Montreux Convention<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>signatory states<\/td><td>1936<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>Turkish Straits<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Constantinople Convention<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>signatory states<\/td><td>1888<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>Suez Canal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Panama Canal treaties<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Panama and the United States<\/td><td>1977<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>canal neutrality<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISPS Code<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMO<\/td><td>2004<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>ship and port security<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trade Facilitation Agreement<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WTO<\/td><td>2017<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>customs and transit<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO 28000<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>supply chain security management<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Distance-adjusted trade grew faster than volume in 2024 because of rerouting<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>A few straits and canals carry a large share of oil and container trade<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Fertiliser and energy flows are linked through the same strait<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How long a closed strait stays closed, and how fast flows return<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How far the Middle East conflict and energy prices hold 2026 trade growth below the March baseline<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How far export licences on processed minerals reach downstream makers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Drewry (ed.), World Container Index (assessment of 29 October 2026; composite USD 4,429 per 40ft; Shanghai to Los Angeles USD 7,514; Shanghai to Rotterdam USD 3,686; two vessels transiting Hormuz and 62 vessels through Suez in the previous week). Drewry Shipping Consultants, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), fourth review of Egypt\u2019s arrangement (Suez Canal revenue USD 6.6 billion in FY2023\/24 and projected USD 3.6 billion in FY2024\/25), as reported by Hellenic Shipping News from Arab Finance; the IMF report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982), regime of transit passage through straits used for international navigation, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits (Montreux Convention), 1936, cited from memory. Observation year 1936. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention respecting the Free Navigation of the Suez Maritime Canal (Constantinople Convention), 1888, cited from memory. Observation year 1888. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal, 1977, cited from memory. Observation year 1977. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>IMO (ed.), SOLAS chapter XI-2 and the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (web page; mandatory Part A and guidance Part B; in force 1 July 2004). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), Trade Facilitation Agreement (web page; Bali Ministerial Conference 2013; in force 22 February 2017). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 28000:2022, Security and resilience: security management <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> for the supply chain. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the EUR-Lex request returned no text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023\/1781 establishing a framework of measures for strengthening Europe\u2019s semiconductor ecosystem (Chips Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Customs Organization (ed.), SAFE Framework of Standards to Secure and Facilitate Global Trade, cited from memory. World Customs Organization, Brussels. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, news release of 19 March 2026 (2025 merchandise volume growth 4.6 percent; 2026 baseline 1.9 percent; high-energy-price case 1.4 percent; Hormuz traffic from 138 vessels a day to almost zero). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>China Briefing (ed.), How will China\u2019s rare earth export controls impact industries and businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven elements; 9 October 2025 expansion to five more; suspended until 10 November 2026). Dezan Shira and Associates, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Stormy seas for global shipping: UNCTAD warns of uncertainty, volatility and rising costs (press release of 24 September 2025; 2025 volume growth 0.5 percent; port fees on certain vessels; alternative-fuel share 8 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Trade Representative, Section 301 action on China\u2019s targeted maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors, 2025 (port fees on certain vessels); the page returned an error and the measure is known here only from the UNCTAD press release cited as reference 2. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Acemoglu, D., Carvalho, V.M., Ozdaglar, A. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., The network origins of aggregate fluctuations, Econometrica 80(5), 1977 to 2016, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Carvalho, V.M., Nirei, M., Saito, Y.U. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., Supply chain disruptions: evidence from the Great East Japan <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/geophysical-hazard-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.seismic.earthquake\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Fault shaking and rupture\" data-td=\"Sudden slip on a fault releasing seismic waves that shake the ground and damage structures and lifelines.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H17\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/geo\/\" data-txl=\"Solid Earth\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/disaster-risk-reduction\/\" data-tal=\"Disaster Risk Reduction\">Earthquake<\/a>, Quarterly Journal of Economics 136(2), 1255 to 1321, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Barrot, J.-N. and Sauvagnat, J., Input specificity and the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks in production networks, Quarterly Journal of Economics 131(3), 1543 to 1592, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Baldwin, R. and Freeman, R., Risks and global supply chains: what we know and what we need to know, Annual Review of Economics 14, 153 to 180, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Benigno, G., di Giovanni, J., Groen, J.J.J. and Noble, A.I., The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: a new tool to measure supply chain disruptions, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2022, cited from memory; the index page returned no definition. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rodrigue, J.-P., The Geography of Transport Systems, 5th edition. Routledge, New York, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024, chapter II: World shipping fleet and services (Suez Canal about 10 percent of maritime trade volume and 22 percent of container trade; Panama Canal about 3 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), World Trade Report 2026: A critical juncture for the world trading system (about 72 percent of merchandise trade on MFN terms). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (remarks to the 180th Council session, 28 April 2026; urea up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil by mid-April). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 March 2026; 2024 total oil flows: Hormuz 20.7, Malacca 22.5, Suez and SUMED 4.8, Bab el-Mandeb 4.1, Cape of Good Hope 9.3 million barrels a day). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, global oil markets (Brent averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026; Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026 against February production of 25.2, and were 5.0 in July and 6.7 in August). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Panama Canal Authority (ed.), Panama Canal maintains operational and financial strength (press release of 8 October 2025; fiscal year 2025: 13,404 transits and 489.1 million CP\/SUAB tons; preliminary and unaudited). Autoridad del Canal de Panama, Panama City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (July 2026), taken only from the press article cited as reference 23; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths chapter; the publication returned an access error and no figure is used. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group, Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era, 2021, taken from search-result summaries that disagree on the Taiwan share; no figure is used in findings. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), initial assessment of the Strait of Hormuz disruption of 10 March 2026 (about one third of global seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes), as reported by a Pakistani daily newspaper; the UNCTAD text itself was not opened. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Investment Monitor (ed.), China rare earth curbs put USD 6.5 trillion of output at risk, article of 16 July 2026 reporting the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (about 85 percent top-country rare earth refining share in 2025; investment down 9 percent in 2025); the IEA report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 supply chains and chokepoints agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 supply chains and chokepoints edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a chokepoint closure that overlaps a Red Sea diversion and high freight rates spread through energy, fertiliser, food and manufacturing at the same time?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR03-CHK-01 \u00b7 compound chokepoint loss; first output: dependency analysis for six regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which goods pass through two or more chokepoints on their way to market?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR03-EXP-02 \u00b7 multi-chokepoint exposure; first output: exposure register.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How long do flows take to return after a closure, and what limits recovery?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR03-RCV-03 \u00b7 recovery times; first output: recovery table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where are energy and fertiliser buffers thinnest?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR03-BUF-04 \u00b7 buffers and stocks; first output: buffer map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do export controls on processed minerals reach downstream manufacturing?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR03-CTL-05 \u00b7 controls and processing; first output: control and processing overlay.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which ports and corridors publish throughput on a comparable basis?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do war-risk costs and insurance change route choice?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which supply chain capabilities have been tested in real disruptions, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Supply chain capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 supply chains portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR03-CHK-01<\/span><\/td><td>Compound chokepoint loss<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>C-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR03-EXP-02<\/span><\/td><td>Multi-chokepoint exposure<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>C-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR03-RCV-03<\/span><\/td><td>Recovery times<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>C-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR03-BUF-04<\/span><\/td><td>Buffers and stocks<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>C-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR03-CTL-05<\/span><\/td><td>Controls and processing<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>C-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-SR03-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Chokepoint closure Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>C-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The supply chains edition reads national trade chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National trade chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">trade and logistics reading in each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">IN PREPARATION \u00b7 national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Sector editions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">energy, food, infrastructure and transport, finance<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 sector Baseline Editions<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Supply chains model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the global supply system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">SR-02 lifeline systems \u00b7 SR-04 critical minerals \u00b7 SR-10 digital public infrastructure<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Supply Chains Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE DRAFT \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the supply chains and chokepoints candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the supply chains and chokepoints candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 supply chains and chokepoints annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-SR03-2027-01 \u00b7 Chokepoint closure Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead: drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>TRD-001 \u00b7 seaborne volume<\/td><td>INI-SR03-EXP-02<\/td><td>multi-chokepoint exposure<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>INF-003 \u00b7 canal shares<\/td><td>INI-SR03-EXP-02<\/td><td>multi-chokepoint exposure<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENE-005 \u00b7 Hormuz baseline<\/td><td>sector editions<\/td><td>energy flow overlay<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CON-006 \u00b7 Hormuz flows<\/td><td>INI-SR03-RCV-03<\/td><td>recovery times<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FOO-009 \u00b7 fertiliser<\/td><td>INI-SR03-BUF-04<\/td><td>buffers and stocks<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MIN-010 \u00b7 rare earth controls<\/td><td>INI-SR03-CTL-05<\/td><td>controls and processing<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-008 \u00b7 trade outlook<\/td><td>INI-SR03-RCV-03 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td>recovery times<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-SR03-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CODES ARE NOT JOINS<\/p><p>Series codes in this edition (SR-03 and its relatives) are Reports codes. Codes in other indices can look alike. This edition makes no join on a code alone: a join needs a registry record that names both subjects.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Chokepoint oil and LNG flows<\/td><td>EIA<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>ENE-005<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Vessel transits at straits and canals<\/td><td>IMF PortWatch and industry trackers<\/td><td>daily to weekly<\/td><td>CON-007<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maritime trade statistics<\/td><td>UNCTAD<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>TRD-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trade forecasts and statistics<\/td><td>WTO<\/td><td>twice a year<\/td><td>FIN-008<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Container freight index<\/td><td>Drewry<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><td>INF-004<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Canal traffic and revenue<\/td><td>Panama Canal Authority and Suez Canal Authority<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>INF-004<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food and fertiliser monitoring<\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>FOO-009<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-SR03-001<\/td><td>Hormuz transit drop in March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>CON \u00b7 ENE<\/td><td>risk object RSK-SR03-CON-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR03-002<\/td><td>Red Sea rerouting and the Cape detour<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>INF \u00b7 TRD<\/td><td>risk object RSK-SR03-INF-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR03-003<\/td><td>Rare earth control suspension to 10 November 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>MIN \u00b7 TRD<\/td><td>research question C-05<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>China Briefing (ed.), How will China\u2019s rare earth export controls impact industries and businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven elements; 9 October 2025 expansion to five more; suspended until 10 November 2026). Dezan Shira and Associates, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c7-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>8 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Common causes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One cause can strike many routes at once: a war, attacks on vessels, low water levels or a licence rule. The shared cause matters more than the route.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u2248130 to 6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">vessels a day<\/span><p>Hormuz transits, February to March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>ton-mile growth in 2024 from rerouting<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">72<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of merchandise trade on MFN terms<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Conflict<\/td><td>Hormuz transits fell by about 95 percent in March 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Attacks on shipping<\/td><td>Red Sea rerouting lifted ton-miles in 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water levels<\/td><td>Panama Canal transit restrictions until mid-2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trade controls<\/td><td>licences on seven rare earth elements remain in force<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CON \u2192 TRD conflict<\/li><li>INF \u2192 TRD attacks on vessels<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 TRD controls<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>common cause tagging of disruptions<\/li><li>frequency of concurrent causes<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Transit counts at straits and canals; trade-control notices; WTO statistics for the second half of 2026.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes causes recorded in public sources. It attributes no attack and assesses no carrier, port or state.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Domino effects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A failure on one route removes an input from the next. A closed strait raises fuel and freight costs, then fertiliser costs, then food costs.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million b\/d<\/span><p>Middle East crude oil shut-ins, March to June 2026 average<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million b\/d<\/span><p>shut-ins in August 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224816<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million tonnes<\/span><p>seaborne fertiliser normally through Hormuz<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Strait to energy<\/td><td>crude oil shut-ins averaged about 37 percent of February production from March to June 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy to fertiliser<\/td><td>urea prices rose 52 percent in the US and 60 percent in Brazil by mid-April 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fertiliser to food<\/td><td>applications cannot be rescheduled without yield loss<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Freight to budgets<\/td><td>Suez revenue projected to halve in FY2024\/25<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 FOO<\/li><li>TRD \u2192 FIN<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 DEV<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>sequence timing of price effects<\/li><li>importer stock levels<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Fertiliser prices; planting-season reports; later FAO and EIA releases.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes dependency sequences. It assesses no producer or importer and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Inter-systemic feedbacks<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Trade also depends on what it carries. Rerouting absorbs ship capacity and lifts rates, and energy prices feed back into trade growth.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>merchandise volume growth, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>added to container TEU-mile demand by Cape routing<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>March high-energy-price case, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Rerouting to capacity<\/td><td>longer voyages absorb ship capacity and lift distance-adjusted demand<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Unwinding to demand<\/td><td>a return to shorter routes would ease costs but cut ton-mile demand<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oil shut-ins to prices<\/td><td>Brent crude averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026 as Middle East exports stayed constrained<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy prices to trade<\/td><td>sustained high energy prices cut 2026 growth to 1.4 percent in the March case<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>TRD \u2194 INF<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 TRD<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 TRD<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>capacity response to a return of Suez traffic<\/li><li>depth of AI-goods concentration<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Suez transit recovery; AI investment announcements; freight indices.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes feedback loops. It assesses no company, carrier or investor.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Shared vulnerabilities<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Different goods share the same weak points: a few straits and canals, concentrated processing and a small set of export origins.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">22.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million b\/d<\/span><p>oil through the Strait of Malacca, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224885<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>top-country share of rare earth refining, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">88<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>cobalt seaborne trade from the top five exporters, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Straits and canals<\/td><td>Malacca 22.5 and Hormuz 20.7 million barrels a day of oil in 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mineral processing<\/td><td>one country held about 85 percent of rare earth refining in 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Export origins<\/td><td>the Democratic Republic of the Congo supplied over 80 percent of cobalt exports<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chip manufacturing<\/td><td>location of leading-edge capacity; figures not reconciled<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>INF \u2192 TRD straits<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 AIC processing<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 TRD controls<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>share of trade through two or more chokepoints<\/li><li>processing capacity outside the top refiner<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Capacity announcements outside the top refiner; strait incidents; control notices.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes shared weak points in public sources. It discloses no vulnerability and assesses no operator.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Thresholds and tipping<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Transit capacity, stocks and licence expiry dates are such thresholds for trade.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>2026 trade growth in the March high-energy-price case<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">November 2026<\/span><p>end of the rare earth control suspension<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u2248800<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">ships<\/span><p>Lloyd\u2019s List estimate of vessels stuck in the Gulf, April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Canal capacity<\/td><td>Panama recovered to 13,404 transits in FY2025 after the drought year<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy price threshold<\/td><td>the March case cut 2026 growth by 0.5 points to 1.4 percent<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Licence expiry<\/td><td>suspension runs to 10 November 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Vessels stranded<\/td><td>an estimated 800 ships in the Gulf in April<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>INF \u2192 TRD capacity<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 FIN prices<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 TRD expiry<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>recovery times after a closure<\/li><li>stock thresholds for fertiliser and fuel<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Decisions on the control suspension; transit counts; later WTO forecasts.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes thresholds in public sources. It is not a prediction and assesses no carrier or state.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), World Trade Report 2026: A critical juncture for the world trading system (about 72 percent of merchandise trade on MFN terms). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024, chapter II: World shipping fleet and services (Suez Canal about 10 percent of maritime trade volume and 22 percent of container trade; Panama Canal about 3 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>China Briefing (ed.), How will China\u2019s rare earth export controls impact industries and businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven elements; 9 October 2025 expansion to five more; suspended until 10 November 2026). Dezan Shira and Associates, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, global oil markets (Brent averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026; Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026 against February production of 25.2, and were 5.0 in July and 6.7 in August). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), initial assessment of the Strait of Hormuz disruption of 10 March 2026 (about one third of global seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes), as reported by a Pakistani daily newspaper; the UNCTAD text itself was not opened. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (remarks to the 180th Council session, 28 April 2026; urea up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil by mid-April). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), fourth review of Egypt\u2019s arrangement (Suez Canal revenue USD 6.6 billion in FY2023\/24 and projected USD 3.6 billion in FY2024\/25), as reported by Hellenic Shipping News from Arab Finance; the IMF report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, news release of 19 March 2026 (2025 merchandise volume growth 4.6 percent; 2026 baseline 1.9 percent; high-energy-price case 1.4 percent; Hormuz traffic from 138 vessels a day to almost zero). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 March 2026; 2024 total oil flows: Hormuz 20.7, Malacca 22.5, Suez and SUMED 4.8, Bab el-Mandeb 4.1, Cape of Good Hope 9.3 million barrels a day). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Investment Monitor (ed.), China rare earth curbs put USD 6.5 trillion of output at risk, article of 16 July 2026 reporting the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (about 85 percent top-country rare earth refining share in 2025; investment down 9 percent in 2025); the IEA report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group, Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era, 2021, taken from search-result summaries that disagree on the Taiwan share; no figure is used in findings. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>News report, Facts about the Strait of Hormuz since its negotiated reopening (last updated 8 April 2026; Kpler: average of eight commodity carriers a day from 1 March to 7 April; Lloyd\u2019s List estimate of about 800 ships stuck in the Gulf; two-week ceasefire). Arab News Pakistan, Islamabad. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Panama Canal Authority (ed.), Panama Canal maintains operational and financial strength (press release of 8 October 2025; fiscal year 2025: 13,404 transits and 489.1 million CP\/SUAB tons; preliminary and unaudited). Autoridad del Canal de Panama, Panama City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>12 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>10 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Average seaborne haul in 2024, derived from ton-miles and tons<\/td><td>66,781 billion ton-miles \u00f7 12,720 million tons<\/td><td>\u2248 5,250 miles<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Share of February 2026 Middle East crude oil production shut in, March to June 2026 average<\/td><td>9.4 \u00f7 25.2<\/td><td>\u2248 37%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Fall in Hormuz daily transits, February to March 2026<\/td><td>(130 \u2212 6) \u00f7 130<\/td><td>\u2248 95%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Ratio of Shanghai to Los Angeles and Shanghai to Rotterdam container rates, 29 October 2026<\/td><td>7,514 \u00f7 3,686<\/td><td>\u2248 2.0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Supply Chains and Chokepoints Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-SR03-SUPPLYCHAINS \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent trade as a network with narrow places and the mechanisms by which disruptions spread between shipping lanes, energy, fertiliser, minerals and freight<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which exposures to measure first; explaining how supply chain disruptions spread.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>46 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 supply chains and chokepoints annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Supply Chains and Chokepoints Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Seaborne trade volume and ton-miles<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Sep 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Review of Maritime Transport 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Canal shares of trade<\/td><td>2023 to 2024<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next UNCTAD review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chokepoint oil flows<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Mar 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next EIA update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hormuz quarterly flows<\/td><td>4Q25 to 2Q26<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>10 Nov 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hormuz daily transits<\/td><td>Feb to Mar 2026<\/td><td>Mar to Apr 2026<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>not found after Q2 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Panama Canal traffic<\/td><td>FY2025<\/td><td>Oct 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>FY2026 results<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WTO trade outlook<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>twice a year<\/td><td>spring 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Container freight<\/td><td>29 Oct 2026<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fertiliser and food<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Apr 2026<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>not found<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rare earth controls<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Nov 2025<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>10 Nov 2026<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Seaborne volume<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>port and inland legs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Canals and straits<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>transits after Q2 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy flows<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>Hormuz data reliability<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fertiliser and food<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>importer stocks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Minerals<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>processing outside the top refiner<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Container freight<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>long-run series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trade policy<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>effective tariffs on one basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Air, rail and road<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>not covered<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Port-level and inland-leg throughput on a common basis<\/td><td>port authorities, customs and national statistics offices<\/td><td>not published on a common basis; port data not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Strait of Hormuz transits and flows after the second quarter of 2026<\/td><td>EIA, UNCTAD and vessel-tracking providers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>tracking data unreliable since late February 2026; only the Drewry note of two transits in the week to 29 October was found<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Effective tariff rates on one basis across major economies<\/td><td>national tariff schedules and WTO tariff data<\/td><td>the Yale Budget Lab tracker could not be retrieved; no figure is used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Share of trade that passes through two or more chokepoints<\/td><td>customs and route data<\/td><td>no consolidated series found<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Inventory buffers held by firms and states<\/td><td>firms, national statistics and strategic stock agencies<\/td><td>not published on a common basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Taiwan share of leading-edge chip manufacturing<\/td><td>SIA and BCG supply chain study<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>report not opened; search summaries give 92 percent of sub-10 nm capacity and 69 percent of 2022 production, and the two are not reconciled<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA critical minerals outlook figures from the report itself<\/td><td>IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the report page returned an access error; figures come from a press article<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>USGS rare earth production by country<\/td><td>USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the publication returned an access error<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF PortWatch chokepoint series<\/td><td>IMF PortWatch<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the dashboard page returned no readable content<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF Suez Canal revenue projection from the review itself<\/td><td>IMF fourth review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>only a news report on the review was opened<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Status of the rare earth control suspension after 10 November 2026<\/td><td>Ministry of Commerce notices<\/td><td>the date falls after evidence close; no extension notice found<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs beyond rerouting and canal recovery<\/td><td>carriers, ports, regulators, ministries<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the UN Trade and Development body. Annual. Role: binds TRD-001 and INF-002. Coverage: global seaborne trade, 2024 with projections to 2030. The chapter text was read in full.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR03-001<\/h3><p>UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the World Trade Organization. Twice a year. Role: binds FIN-008. Coverage: global merchandise trade, 2025 growth and the 2026 baseline and high-energy-price case. The news release was read; the full report was not.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR03-002<\/h3><p>WTO Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR03-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR03-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>volume, ton-miles, containers, commodities<\/td><td>merchandise and services, regions and sectors<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 9 months after the year<\/td><td>about 1 week after the data cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>annual; prior years restated<\/td><td>forecasts revised in March, October and in between<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>sources named; data from commercial shipping databases<\/td><td>forecast method described by the issuer<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>compiled from industry and port data<\/td><td>review by the issuer\u2019s statistics staff<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>: chapters II to V on fleet, freight, ports and regulation<\/li><li>WTO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>: full report tables on regional trade<\/li><li>EIA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup>: later monthly releases on Hormuz<\/li><li>Drewry<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>: weekly index history<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>AIS<\/td><td>automatic identification system for vessels<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EIA<\/td><td>US Energy Information Administration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO<\/td><td>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF<\/td><td>International Monetary Fund<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMO<\/td><td>International Maritime Organization<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LNG<\/td><td>liquefied natural gas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MFN<\/td><td>most-favoured-nation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SCFI<\/td><td>Shanghai Containerized Freight Index<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TEU<\/td><td>twenty-foot equivalent unit<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNCTAD<\/td><td>United Nations Trade and Development<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WCI<\/td><td>World Container Index<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WTO<\/td><td>World Trade Organization<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-SR03-CHK-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Regional notes<\/td><td>regional supply chain cards<\/td><td>WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: chokepoint transit<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>a recorded passage of a vessel through a named strait or canal<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>vessels per day or per week<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>vessel-tracking and canal-authority counts<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>UNCTAD rapid assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>; Drewry<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>counts differ by provider and by what is counted<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>does not record cargo, flag or destination<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, global oil markets (Brent averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026; Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026 against February production of 25.2, and were 5.0 in July and 6.7 in August). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group, Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era, 2021, taken from search-result summaries that disagree on the Taiwan share; no figure is used in findings. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (July 2026), taken only from the press article cited as reference 23; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths chapter; the publication returned an access error and no figure is used. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), PortWatch, chokepoint transit and trade monitoring platform; the dashboard page returned no readable content and no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), fourth review of Egypt\u2019s arrangement (Suez Canal revenue USD 6.6 billion in FY2023\/24 and projected USD 3.6 billion in FY2024\/25), as reported by Hellenic Shipping News from Arab Finance; the IMF report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, news release of 19 March 2026 (2025 merchandise volume growth 4.6 percent; 2026 baseline 1.9 percent; high-energy-price case 1.4 percent; Hormuz traffic from 138 vessels a day to almost zero). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Drewry (ed.), World Container Index (assessment of 29 October 2026; composite USD 4,429 per 40ft; Shanghai to Los Angeles USD 7,514; Shanghai to Rotterdam USD 3,686; two vessels transiting Hormuz and 62 vessels through Suez in the previous week). Drewry Shipping Consultants, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-ca-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>10 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Seaborne trade volume<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">12,720<\/span><\/td><td>million tons<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Seaborne trade, ton-miles<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">66,781<\/span><\/td><td>billion ton-miles<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cape detour, voyage length added<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 30<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Suez share of maritime trade volume<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 10<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023 to 2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hormuz total oil flow<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">20.7<\/span><\/td><td>million b\/d<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East crude oil shut-ins, March to June average<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">9.4<\/span><\/td><td>million b\/d<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East crude oil production, February<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">25.2<\/span><\/td><td>million b\/d<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hormuz daily transits, March<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">6<\/span><\/td><td>vessels a day<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Panama Canal transits<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">13,404<\/span><\/td><td>transits<\/td><td>FY2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Panama Canal cargo<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">489.1<\/span><\/td><td>million CP\/SUAB tons<\/td><td>FY2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WTO merchandise volume growth, March baseline<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.9<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Share of merchandise trade on MFN terms<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 72<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Seaborne fertiliser trade through Hormuz<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 16<\/span><\/td><td>million tonnes<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Drewry World Container Index composite<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">4,429<\/span><\/td><td>USD per 40ft<\/td><td>29 Oct 2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rare earth refining share, top country<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 85<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0ASeaborne%20trade%20volume%2C%2212%2C720%22%2Cmillion%20tons%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Seaborne%20trade%2C%20ton-miles%22%2C%2266%2C781%22%2Cbillion%20ton-miles%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Cape%20detour%2C%20voyage%20length%20added%22%2C%E2%89%88%2030%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0ASuez%20share%20of%20maritime%20trade%20volume%2C%E2%89%88%2010%2C%25%2C2023%20to%202024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0AHormuz%20total%20oil%20flow%2C20.7%2Cmillion%20b%2Fd%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0A%22Middle%20East%20crude%20oil%20shut-ins%2C%20March%20to%20June%20average%22%2C9.4%2Cmillion%20b%2Fd%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B46%5D%0A%22Middle%20East%20crude%20oil%20production%2C%20February%22%2C25.2%2Cmillion%20b%2Fd%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B46%5D%0A%22Hormuz%20daily%20transits%2C%20March%22%2C6%2Cvessels%20a%20day%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B5%5D%0APanama%20Canal%20transits%2C%2213%2C404%22%2Ctransits%2CFY2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0APanama%20Canal%20cargo%2C489.1%2Cmillion%20CP%2FSUAB%20tons%2CFY2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0A%22WTO%20merchandise%20volume%20growth%2C%20March%20baseline%22%2C1.9%2C%25%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B13%5D%0AShare%20of%20merchandise%20trade%20on%20MFN%20terms%2C%E2%89%88%2072%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0ASeaborne%20fertiliser%20trade%20through%20Hormuz%2C%E2%89%88%2016%2Cmillion%20tonnes%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B6%5D%0ADrewry%20World%20Container%20Index%20composite%2C%224%2C429%22%2CUSD%20per%2040ft%2C29%20Oct%202026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B16%5D%0A%22Rare%20earth%20refining%20share%2C%20top%20country%22%2C%E2%89%88%2085%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B23%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Strategic%20Systems%20Report%202026%3A%20Global%20Supply%20Chains%2C%20Trade%20and%20Chokepoints%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Seaborne%20trade%20volume%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2212%2C720%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20tons%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Seaborne%20trade%2C%20ton-miles%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2266%2C781%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22billion%20ton-miles%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Cape%20detour%2C%20voyage%20length%20added%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%2030%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Suez%20share%20of%20maritime%20trade%20volume%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%2010%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%20to%202024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Hormuz%20total%20oil%20flow%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2220.7%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20b%2Fd%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Middle%20East%20crude%20oil%20shut-ins%2C%20March%20to%20June%20average%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%229.4%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20b%2Fd%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B46%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Middle%20East%20crude%20oil%20production%2C%20February%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2225.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20b%2Fd%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B46%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Hormuz%20daily%20transits%2C%20March%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%226%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22vessels%20a%20day%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B5%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Panama%20Canal%20transits%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2213%2C404%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22transits%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22FY2025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B10%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Panama%20Canal%20cargo%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22489.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20CP%2FSUAB%20tons%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22FY2025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B10%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22WTO%20merchandise%20volume%20growth%2C%20March%20baseline%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B13%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Share%20of%20merchandise%20trade%20on%20MFN%20terms%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%2072%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Seaborne%20fertiliser%20trade%20through%20Hormuz%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%2016%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20tonnes%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B6%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Drewry%20World%20Container%20Index%20composite%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%224%2C429%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20per%2040ft%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2229%20Oct%202026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B16%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Rare%20earth%20refining%20share%2C%20top%20country%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%2085%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B23%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Values are rounded as published. Forecasts and observed values are not added. The rare earth refining share comes from a press article on the IEA outlook and carries a weak reference. Search-summary values carry an UNVERIFIED reference and are listed in the notes. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CON<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">AIC<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>seaborne trade<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNCTAD Review of Maritime Transport 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2023 to 2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>canal shares<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNCTAD Hormuz assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>Gulf<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>transit drop<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EIA chokepoints<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>oil flows<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics agency<\/td><td>Gulf<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>Hormuz-related oil shut-ins<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Panama Canal Authority<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>canal operator<\/td><td>Panama<\/td><td>FY2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>canal traffic<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WTO Global Trade Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>international organisation<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>twice a year<\/td><td>trade forecast<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WTO World Trade Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>international organisation<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>MFN share<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Drewry World Container Index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>shipping consultancy<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><td>container freight<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO remarks<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>fertiliser and food<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td>canal dependence; container imports; tariff changes<\/td><td>ports, rail, canals<\/td><td>Panama Canal Authority<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>; WTO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>bulk exports to Asia; canal and fertiliser dependence<\/td><td>ports, fertiliser<\/td><td>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>Red Sea diversion; energy imports<\/td><td>container routes, LNG<\/td><td>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; EIA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>Black Sea and Turkish Straits routes<\/td><td>grain, oil<\/td><td>EIA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td>Hormuz closure; Suez revenue<\/td><td>oil, LNG, canal<\/td><td>EIA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup>; IMF as reported<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>cobalt exports; fertiliser and fuel imports<\/td><td>minerals, fertiliser<\/td><td>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>energy and fertiliser imports through Hormuz<\/td><td>oil, LNG, fertiliser<\/td><td>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>; FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>container hubs; Malacca and Hormuz energy imports<\/td><td>containers, oil<\/td><td>EIA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>; WTO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>Malacca flows; electronics exports<\/td><td>oil, electronics<\/td><td>EIA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>; WTO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>long routes; small island freight costs<\/td><td>containers<\/td><td>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Regional card: Gulf and Strait of Hormuz<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">region<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">strait<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">fertiliser<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>oil, LNG, fertiliser, shipping<\/dd><dt>Defining events<\/dt><dd>closure of the strait to most traffic from March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>ENE \u2192 FOO; ENE \u2192 INF<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>rerouting and alternative suppliers; recovery not verified<\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>transits after Q2 2026; stocks held by importers<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>C-01 \u00b7 C-03 \u00b7 C-04<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Estimated crude oil production shut-ins from the closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026, and 6.7 in August [46].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">ENERGY<\/h3><p>Oil and LNG<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">About one third of seaborne fertiliser trade normally passes through the strait, and urea prices rose sharply [6] [17].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">FOOD<\/h3><p>Fertiliser<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Daily transits fell from about 130 to 6 in March 2026; only two vessels were reported in one week in late October [5] [16].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">SHIPPING<\/h3><p>Traffic<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Regional cards are generated with the regional Baseline Editions. The Gulf card is shown first because its disruption is documented in several public sources.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the supply chains edition through the trade and logistics chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024, chapter II: World shipping fleet and services (Suez Canal about 10 percent of maritime trade volume and 22 percent of container trade; Panama Canal about 3 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 March 2026; 2024 total oil flows: Hormuz 20.7, Malacca 22.5, Suez and SUMED 4.8, Bab el-Mandeb 4.1, Cape of Good Hope 9.3 million barrels a day). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, global oil markets (Brent averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026; Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026 against February production of 25.2, and were 5.0 in July and 6.7 in August). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Panama Canal Authority (ed.), Panama Canal maintains operational and financial strength (press release of 8 October 2025; fiscal year 2025: 13,404 transits and 489.1 million CP\/SUAB tons; preliminary and unaudited). Autoridad del Canal de Panama, Panama City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, news release of 19 March 2026 (2025 merchandise volume growth 4.6 percent; 2026 baseline 1.9 percent; high-energy-price case 1.4 percent; Hormuz traffic from 138 vessels a day to almost zero). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), World Trade Report 2026: A critical juncture for the world trading system (about 72 percent of merchandise trade on MFN terms). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), initial assessment of the Strait of Hormuz disruption of 10 March 2026 (about one third of global seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes), as reported by a Pakistani daily newspaper; the UNCTAD text itself was not opened. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Drewry (ed.), World Container Index (assessment of 29 October 2026; composite USD 4,429 per 40ft; Shanghai to Los Angeles USD 7,514; Shanghai to Rotterdam USD 3,686; two vessels transiting Hormuz and 62 vessels through Suez in the previous week). Drewry Shipping Consultants, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Investment Monitor (ed.), China rare earth curbs put USD 6.5 trillion of output at risk, article of 16 July 2026 reporting the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (about 85 percent top-country rare earth refining share in 2025; investment down 9 percent in 2025); the IEA report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (remarks to the 180th Council session, 28 April 2026; urea up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil by mid-April). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint (Today in Energy, 16 June 2025; about 20 million barrels a day, about one fifth of global LNG trade in 2024). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), fourth review of Egypt\u2019s arrangement (Suez Canal revenue USD 6.6 billion in FY2023\/24 and projected USD 3.6 billion in FY2024\/25), as reported by Hellenic Shipping News from Arab Finance; the IMF report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Stormy seas for global shipping: UNCTAD warns of uncertainty, volatility and rising costs (press release of 24 September 2025; 2025 volume growth 0.5 percent; port fees on certain vessels; alternative-fuel share 8 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-03-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\">Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>15 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>46 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2025, chapter I: International maritime trade (12,720 million tons and 66,781 billion ton-miles in 2024; Cape detour about 30 percent; cobalt and copper concentration). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Stormy seas for global shipping: UNCTAD warns of uncertainty, volatility and rising costs (press release of 24 September 2025; 2025 volume growth 0.5 percent; port fees on certain vessels; alternative-fuel share 8 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Maritime trade under pressure, growth set to stall in 2025 (news item; Suez Canal tonnage 70 percent below 2023 in May 2025; Shanghai Containerized Freight Index averaged 2,496 in 2024). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Review of Maritime Transport 2024, chapter II: World shipping fleet and services (Suez Canal about 10 percent of maritime trade volume and 22 percent of container trade; Panama Canal about 3 percent). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Hormuz disruption deepens global economic strain across trade, prices and finance (second rapid assessment; transits about 130 a day in February and 6 in March 2026; merchandise trade growth 1.5 to 2.5 percent projected for 2026). United Nations Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), initial assessment of the Strait of Hormuz disruption of 10 March 2026 (about one third of global seaborne fertiliser trade, about 16 million tonnes), as reported by a Pakistani daily newspaper; the UNCTAD text itself was not opened. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), World Oil Transit Chokepoints (last updated 3 March 2026; 2024 total oil flows: Hormuz 20.7, Malacca 22.5, Suez and SUMED 4.8, Bab el-Mandeb 4.1, Cape of Good Hope 9.3 million barrels a day). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Amid regional conflict, the Strait of Hormuz remains critical oil chokepoint (Today in Energy, 16 June 2025; about 20 million barrels a day, about one fifth of global LNG trade in 2024). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026, global energy security data (Hormuz oil flow 21.6, 14.9 and 4.9 million barrels a day; LNG 10.5, 7.4 and 0.8 billion cubic feet a day; released 6 October 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Panama Canal Authority (ed.), Panama Canal maintains operational and financial strength (press release of 8 October 2025; fiscal year 2025: 13,404 transits and 489.1 million CP\/SUAB tons; preliminary and unaudited). Autoridad del Canal de Panama, Panama City. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: WTO (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, update of October 2026 (news release of 8 October 2026; 2026 merchandise volume growth 3.9 percent, 2027 4.1 percent; Middle East merchandise exports minus 17.2 percent in 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: WTO (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, executive summary of the October 2026 update (AI-enabling goods 47 percent of merchandise trade growth and 14.8 percent of trade in the first half of 2026). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), Global Trade Outlook and Statistics, news release of 19 March 2026 (2025 merchandise volume growth 4.6 percent; 2026 baseline 1.9 percent; high-energy-price case 1.4 percent; Hormuz traffic from 138 vessels a day to almost zero). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>WTO and UNCTAD (eds.), Global goods trade resilient in Q1 2026 despite Middle East war (WTO news item of 31 July 2026; Middle East export volumes down 9.7 percent and import volumes down 11.9 percent year on year in the first quarter). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), World Trade Report 2026: A critical juncture for the world trading system (about 72 percent of merchandise trade on MFN terms). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Drewry (ed.), World Container Index (assessment of 29 October 2026; composite USD 4,429 per 40ft; Shanghai to Los Angeles USD 7,514; Shanghai to Rotterdam USD 3,686; two vessels transiting Hormuz and 62 vessels through Suez in the previous week). Drewry Shipping Consultants, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (remarks to the 180th Council session, 28 April 2026; urea up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil by mid-April). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), fourth review of Egypt\u2019s arrangement (Suez Canal revenue USD 6.6 billion in FY2023\/24 and projected USD 3.6 billion in FY2024\/25), as reported by Hellenic Shipping News from Arab Finance; the IMF report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>FreightWaves (ed.), Suez container ships near low for all of 2025 (2 December 2025; container transits about 4.7 to 5.0 a day in July to November 2025; sources include Xeneta and a shipping agency). FreightWaves, Chattanooga. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>News report, Facts about the Strait of Hormuz since its negotiated reopening (last updated 8 April 2026; Kpler: average of eight commodity carriers a day from 1 March to 7 April; Lloyd\u2019s List estimate of about 800 ships stuck in the Gulf; two-week ceasefire). Arab News Pakistan, Islamabad. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Lloyd\u2019s List Intelligence (ed.), Bab el-Mandeb transits continue to decline but slight uptick for Suez Canal (blog; data for the week ending 10 March 2024: Bab el-Mandeb 218 passings, 60 percent below normal; the page carries a 2026 date, which is not reconciled). Lloyd\u2019s List Intelligence, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>China Briefing (ed.), How will China\u2019s rare earth export controls impact industries and businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven elements; 9 October 2025 expansion to five more; suspended until 10 November 2026). Dezan Shira and Associates, Hong Kong. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Investment Monitor (ed.), China rare earth curbs put USD 6.5 trillion of output at risk, article of 16 July 2026 reporting the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (about 85 percent top-country rare earth refining share in 2025; investment down 9 percent in 2025); the IEA report itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>IMO (ed.), SOLAS chapter XI-2 and the International Ship and Port Facility Security Code (web page; mandatory Part A and guidance Part B; in force 1 July 2004). International Maritime Organization, London. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>WTO (ed.), Trade Facilitation Agreement (web page; Bali Ministerial Conference 2013; in force 22 February 2017). World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (July 2026), taken only from the press article cited as reference 23; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, rare earths chapter; the publication returned an access error and no figure is used. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group, Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era, 2021, taken from search-result summaries that disagree on the Taiwan share; no figure is used in findings. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (1982), regime of transit passage through straits used for international navigation, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1982. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention regarding the Regime of the Straits (Montreux Convention), 1936, cited from memory. Observation year 1936. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention respecting the Free Navigation of the Suez Maritime Canal (Constantinople Convention), 1888, cited from memory. Observation year 1888. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Treaty concerning the Permanent Neutrality and Operation of the Panama Canal, 1977, cited from memory. Observation year 1977. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 28000:2022, Security and resilience: security management <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> for the supply chain. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the EUR-Lex request returned no text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023\/1781 establishing a framework of measures for strengthening Europe\u2019s semiconductor ecosystem (Chips Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Customs Organization (ed.), SAFE Framework of Standards to Secure and Facilitate Global Trade, cited from memory. World Customs Organization, Brussels. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Acemoglu, D., Carvalho, V.M., Ozdaglar, A. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., The network origins of aggregate fluctuations, Econometrica 80(5), 1977 to 2016, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Carvalho, V.M., Nirei, M., Saito, Y.U. and Tahbaz-Salehi, A., Supply chain disruptions: evidence from the Great East Japan <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/geophysical-hazard-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 geo.seismic.earthquake\" data-tk=\"Solid Earth \u00b7 Fault shaking and rupture\" data-td=\"Sudden slip on a fault releasing seismic waves that shake the ground and damage structures and lifelines.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H17\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/geo\/\" data-txl=\"Solid Earth\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/disaster-risk-reduction\/\" data-tal=\"Disaster Risk Reduction\">Earthquake<\/a>, Quarterly Journal of Economics 136(2), 1255 to 1321, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Barrot, J.-N. and Sauvagnat, J., Input specificity and the propagation of idiosyncratic shocks in production networks, Quarterly Journal of Economics 131(3), 1543 to 1592, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Baldwin, R. and Freeman, R., Risks and global supply chains: what we know and what we need to know, Annual Review of Economics 14, 153 to 180, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Benigno, G., di Giovanni, J., Groen, J.J.J. and Noble, A.I., The Global Supply Chain Pressure Index: a new tool to measure supply chain disruptions, Federal Reserve Bank of New York, 2022, cited from memory; the index page returned no definition. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rodrigue, J.-P., The Geography of Transport Systems, 5th edition. Routledge, New York, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), PortWatch, chokepoint transit and trade monitoring platform; the dashboard page returned no readable content and no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Trade Representative, Section 301 action on China\u2019s targeted maritime, logistics and shipbuilding sectors, 2025 (port fees on certain vessels); the page returned an error and the measure is known here only from the UNCTAD press release cited as reference 2. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-ref-46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>EIA (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026, global oil markets (Brent averaged USD 91 a barrel in August 2026; Middle East crude oil production shut-ins from the Hormuz closure averaged 9.4 million barrels a day from March to June 2026 against February production of 25.2, and were 5.0 in July and 6.7 in August). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Strategic Systems Series SR-03<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 supply chains and chokepoints edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-03-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SR-03<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-03-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-STR-SR-03-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Supply%20Chains%2C%20Trade%20and%20Chokepoints\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Supply%20Chains%2C%20Trade%20and%20Chokepoints&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Supply%20Chains%2C%20Trade%20and%20Chokepoints\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Supply%20Chains%2C%20Trade%20and%20Chokepoints\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Supply%20Chains%2C%20Trade%20and%20Chokepoints\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-03&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-03&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-03-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-03-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>SR-03 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-03 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Strategic Systems<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><p class=\"nx-note\" data-nr-rights=\"true\"><a class=\"nx-link\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.<\/p><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-03-full-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-03-full-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-03-full-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/model\/scenarios\/urban-flood\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Urban flood<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/risk-information-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Risk information standards and interoperability<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/data\/identification-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Identification (the UNI)<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script><style>@media print { @page { margin: 20mm 17mm 20mm 17mm; @top-left { content: \"Nexus Reports\"; font: 500 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @top-right { content: \"Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints \\0000b7  Baseline Edition 2026\"; font: 400 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Sans\", sans-serif; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-left { content: \"NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE \\0000b7  Draft, not released\"; font: 400 7pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-center { content: \"CC BY 4.0. Free to read. Authors keep copyright.\"; font: 400 6.5pt \"IBM Plex Sans\", sans-serif; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-right { content: counter(page) \" \/ \" counter(pages); font: 500 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #000000; } } @page :first { @top-left { content: none; } @top-right { content: none; } } html, body { background: #ffffff; } nexus-header, nexus-footer, #wpadminbar, .site-header, .site-footer, #masthead, #colophon, .sidebar, .widget-area, .comments-area, .post-navigation, .entry-meta, .page-header, .elementor-location-header, .elementor-location-footer, body > header, body > footer { display: none; } .nxe-host { margin: 0; padding: 0; } }<\/style><script>(function () { var D = document; function hosts(f) { var h = D.querySelectorAll(\".nxe-host\"); for (var i = 0; i < h.length; i++) { f(h[i].shadowRoot ? h[i].shadowRoot : h[i]); } } function reveal() { hosts(function (r) { var b = r.querySelectorAll(\"[data-nrp-act][hidden]\"); for (var i = 0; i < b.length; i++) { b[i].hidden = false; } }); } function say(el, t) { var p = el; while (p) { var l = p.querySelector ? p.querySelector(\".nrp-live\") : null; if (l) { l.textContent = t; return; } p = p.parentElement; } } D.addEventListener(\"click\", function (e) { var path = e.composedPath ? e.composedPath() : [e.target]; for (var i = 0; i < path.length; i++) { var el = path[i]; var act = el.getAttribute ? el.getAttribute(\"data-nrp-act\") : null; if (act === \"print\") { window.print(); return; } if (act === \"copy\") { var t = el.getAttribute(\"data-nrp-text\"); if (navigator.clipboard) { navigator.clipboard.writeText(t).then(function () { say(el, \"Copied.\"); }, function () { say(el, \"CLIPBOARD_UNAVAILABLE: select the text and copy it.\"); }); } else { say(el, \"CLIPBOARD_UNAVAILABLE: select the text and copy it.\"); } return; } } }); if (D.readyState === \"loading\") { D.addEventListener(\"DOMContentLoaded\", reveal); } else { reveal(); } addEventListener(\"load\", reveal); setTimeout(reveal, 1500); })();<\/script>\n\n\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"Report\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/#report\",\"name\":\"Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026: complete edition\",\"headline\":\"Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026\",\"description\":\"The complete Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints at one address: cover, imprint, contents.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"mainEntityOfPage\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/#webpage\"},\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/#organization\",\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"name\":\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/\",\"alternateName\":\"GCRI\"},\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/#organization\"},\"license\":\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\",\"isAccessibleForFree\":true,\"creativeWorkStatus\":\"Draft\"}]}<\/script>\n\n<!-- nx-rev:7d7c7d2a58cd1384 -->\n<!-- nx-shared:047d1908d121 -->\n<!-- nx-path:\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/ -->","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>The complete Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints at one address: cover, imprint, contents.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":0,"featured_media":0,"parent":687,"menu_order":0,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","template":"","meta":{"_buddyx_sub_header_visibility":"","_buddyx_sub_header_title_visibility":"","_hide_show_side_panel":"","_buddyxpro_page_sidebar":"","_buddyxpro_page_disable_header":"","_buddyxpro_page_disable_footer":"","_buddyxpro_page_content_width":"","_buddyxpro_page_header_style":"","_buddyxpro_page_color_mode":"","_buddyxpro_page_loader":"","_nx_seo_description":"The complete Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints at one address: cover, imprint, contents.","_nx_seo_title":"Global Supply Chains, Trade | Reports GCRI","_nx_seo_image":"","_nx_seo_jsonld":"{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"WebPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/#webpage\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/\",\"name\":\"Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026: complete edition\",\"creativeWorkStatus\":\"Draft\",\"description\":\"The complete Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints at one address: cover, imprint, contents.\",\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/#website\"},\"license\":\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/#organization\"},\"breadcrumb\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/#breadcrumbs\"}},{\"@type\":\"Report\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/#complete\",\"name\":\"Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/\",\"identifier\":[{\"@type\":\"PropertyValue\",\"propertyID\":\"NR\",\"value\":\"NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0\"},{\"@type\":\"PropertyValue\",\"propertyID\":\"NR-alias\",\"value\":\"NR-STR-SR-03-2026-BL\"}],\"reportNumber\":\"NR-STRATEGIC-SUPPLYCHAINS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE\",\"version\":\"1.0.0\",\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"license\":\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\",\"creativeWorkStatus\":\"Draft\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/#organization\"},\"editor\":{\"@type\":\"Person\",\"name\":\"Saeed Valadbaygi\",\"jobTitle\":\"Chief Steward and Managing Editor\",\"affiliation\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/#organization\"}},\"author\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/#organization\"},\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/#report\"}},{\"@type\":\"WebSite\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/#website\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\",\"name\":\"Reports \u00b7 GCRI\",\"publisher\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/#organization\"}},{\"@type\":\"Organization\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/#organization\",\"name\":\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\",\"alternateName\":\"GCRI\",\"url\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/\"},{\"@type\":\"BreadcrumbList\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/#breadcrumbs\",\"itemListElement\":[{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":1,\"name\":\"Reports\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":2,\"name\":\"Editions: the Reports catalogue\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":3,\"name\":\"Strategic Systems Report 2026: Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/\"},{\"@type\":\"ListItem\",\"position\":4,\"name\":\"Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints 2026: complete edition\",\"item\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/\"}]}]}","_nx_i18n_locale":"","_nx_i18n_group":"","nexus_page_kind":"","footnotes":"","_nrp_robots":"noindex","_nrp_edition":"687","_nx_seo_image_alt":"","_nx_seo_canonical":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-03\/full\/","_nx_seo_robots":"noindex,follow","_nx_seo_schema_type":"Report"},"class_list":["post-1417","page","type-page","status-publish","hentry"],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1417","targetHints":{"allow":["GET"]}}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/types\/page"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/comments?post=1417"}],"version-history":[{"count":0,"href":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/1417\/revisions"}],"up":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/pages\/687"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/wp-json\/wp\/v2\/media?parent=1417"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}