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3f8CIwreJoKRwHHRNXfc3DNWM71mKy3t5exrop26P5rHHY0mUqm1lVsbKWnnDQTlzxbGV59ZITZ8usdKDHBDQ2iK9F6vfUB0grpmGa91nasCvrC6\/WM5U8ZNsoPOE9M9PzwMr016N2kvY8ZRIAMURhHkVJtB4N1b2Bpu5pnaPicwDWxQ6W04JQ8TcOCpylEWZXqobIrxvvIA0g+9sasM6amltxQL1HJloG6A0S61Ub664U1cqXwJeQqFLw6oWZiOVL1dQX6EzeKferZKHeDeaIhnycb4A2x0HQsQCeYK1i4SkVrsGZl5S4CmlJcX39kfiyGmG6vNsWrwsoV0aS2zbZITV5hLyeNQJXk6oO4qPcEy6krNhbUDDnmsRSf+mf26wvePVfpj1F0ydqrPjgZcyx0Air4vlAmKn3EciYw3pqRbDuy154olvl5p64Tw2oXgVZxmjxWvQwbHYLisLJtn3Z1erc4TLEyQPLFDlfa9IoRQIRBxn3s3hz5EO6cIdL7SnhflkOSfmtg+STpJ7mDuwBNOvFH7Df6mCEHQoizA88oPitjjNQx26tuy9\/RlhBtotD8wCEuvYFBJYNXo7yH586+EGrAtsMHdMjMBGTmW1EP0pYu4h5mVmEjzY+b7cqJzPrmvGFWDaTX7swykGP8f9RDvrZ1aGXbyap2g\/+XkUhOyp5NR3LVU4mA6OdFUZE6ZSjHSHUKJkuqSKXu88WBlUhpFe8CYDRj1THd3C+ZeiJ6hQOxp\/OneL0GSvZhWzbU0RwtIapaJ1YRNV\/GmKqhngj13dv7gFeP1PxQkVqBn5UzWhs3PVbGkFwJegEx8Bfs6CxjxC94FLxZBY4KzlU12fwmw21399wcOVPJSIycKQTrJU\/XCfyUGcdG4CPAUruHEUp2w69ttsTJZJAYgfLtyFdgGHF5pD8aFCTRTWXUZmkMLguEcAgpH7arz8FKV0g1IaIZaI\/acyeYUakBLvrOgNvJAwxRDhfCCL7lXrLflPb6K0n63wbWe7K3WK\/Nr1VH5ZtSiyuXoAU+brZ7e\/P1urL8yJlyNmguU0F8zQL+3neFy\/RDo7GR4edOQVB5aJgPhJB2DwlbVUf8BTvhRuAkWnEQuKSJrCXOfGZj0urGeVRODLMN+\/FzwuAUeMFgVju77pzMCSEL8AhbZDAGeD\/kvT6IXh8q4y7jhFuOkGXOe7zM04DE5QBNnrQCWEjzjPYv2EATI2+fCIGFDRjQMQ0949gA67xUpQ8so+YTG2SCeeV2Hvk08KQOXiGH9Xqb3y\/kF3JMRTmfZ\/EBdWKdV7i0S2SrsSSt7vJorlZjqXZ8rKVw2BOOfXgFisj+cvAjhqHsOMy4dM+9zJo8C0mMV7yxCoWl50\/zFFhcyOUlq82BUFhzBOcBTLkGZJGFJi8GVfaWAKwt\/OOu7adA0JO+V3Q78Em1BlFpolCCcb4J8wEKCxktWMjotqu7NJZIzx\/c5UWyMONWt6JKccy8QJWFCW0dEdHY06d+BlF1s1L46aa2+ragMONrMcujPxlN0HqdvTAgHrcq7HOrUz2SfZS1Wz1dsaPhVFR9p0ni+GEzGo3EuZzj2iwehbIq4UdaKVJn5fJUboUTRwsnjm\/Q5aB2\/HT7oBQXe76F9TaF\/Eqzmt3aTfLdSgiJezzXmLTDxrjrmNVRDyoC3BFFsqVIi9l7cqLVVUZKnkDPfNH\/2xv0\/\/Yse\/DPF7ha5wGB3kLJIceT5K6ulvBwFTWzVF8OLrThEzNRFmcb4X57IPCTig7h\/EmS+\/BaCAJiZfT+jGhOvNL1RmLXzJFXvG4ofkHZnovYO4b4R8FcPNgsOveX1INUFULY+ka+5bP6+63ZI+bf3urlBjfM3t7fHsYwUSvP7fFNc56AhiFslCj8vCQPMjwyszm1LfOhucQvIKasK1iZdpN\/jaOF2W5+s15C\/IfOXswasen88ytuzHm6zKM2ALUqVGkhz0CxOlcW1xTnNwJUpyAS5ClOInAW8cOxpLEPsZ+KXyxxXCp+cioqfk4pS3xXVHYhl\/ogew9pXES+xd6OQDNdNL2nzwg3Y3m4WVV2JC6P9+l2tFmmcc\/zJ0lhrluJRPw8DaRQWVQgBz5jQBAppMDd3FMtoXDIZRk2SWg6iQKvYx+81nIEfwAR5QM7mmaj\/8BFlHuaxbNNWf8D20oV\/B4qvtcrvucVp6z\/ng2emIimk\/bC3bxXMYxaoo8nUpAIbPGcyHWeqWR3+i+sgqRE6PIKOJwO1LPk1ug4m10ZTHyBBwSWoaBTyvWwOXaYAacPZT6S93oB0GDKjG\/C8+ijbtLGK\/XxquBh1LL09433tVn1uNvSx92fD17p6zWHgYJgApqlXConXFrZew9qI21ErYzcfSSt7sec3f+Y5T74CJtF2U3fgwzwcWADkKsInaT++YnQ69dl4S\/XmZlZH4p6Z31WWyZVE6X+6m8wUOX164Jk3kNfQxzv4QzlQHmfAeW9DhSoMYd6eVSqgGi23pA\/02rhxsErK5DeLydk20ugUUyceEyel8zxoFuIq83He6sO2w0JIbBWwWVHDkfYJTdH5CNE3RYqZVrMk97N0fbQ\/2kfKgxdrriZmwHDG11a0WijjLMHoYVbqXcG3WpyrWpKSo13TBz\/xTNUTIst1dGTodUL\/Kwc9A\/1dGmh4\/h+y2oPNCwv9BlhQZ\/xkCH4sP8tX7sKYbWYEXC91ssLzCcH\/pHPpjjkr3zIxS8Axa9Z91W5crkYyzREiDcLaVd5qFbBMTClZw5vU4cl\/lIXcL8DvfrOjh4yUvGd06ufqPlA+9+BwPEECLu4koqsYUNodsiO3mVkcMhk5rB3rD9kIneY\/CnuxXnO+EH3nSp6Nwszszo\/RJe3N5JZxxlr2m7lY\/oEY\/rEjk6zqX5i6qR+YeSU9j+xQdUQEsk\/cZ2yPssFtLhgR1+yWS6yFq8o+cL6C1YpCIumBOdyRXtX9GiWmWJkLd3BVWb1qFey7kihrMb6Gcb6mR19y2b\/mY\/VC81vtP9ZLcMjIygEd2WbTofUA5P8lGqqQzf3aahOMa\/GRJuTCLLSWVRnS8DbMMxZwlBBKyGsHw60e3nWa3iRWXErj4LgQKhkQCAfQSexwiXlnMf2PQV3XJ1VuC5hC79XCKscABZT+bgoZK3j1wBAigtrBDPiM2M\/mETdheCwZupC+x3Dc5IHrEwU0N6vjIh8tVoeWS1uzQATlijQC1kvZCr1eg9BU6iDAm7myf7qKaa5v8Ov4BUORMBlWLQp\/b2uZQbsOih16zgKCSqKa0vANUkAS+jX5de8DGee97hEagShlg1VsBEm94Dgc+qJuYhWOvyd+I0L9RzPK1TKy3X0Bupt+UM5UJF5sXIuqohFi3cGQLJWoa\/IBoALH0vjlPNv8jEK+OEuJ\/l1tSRUqipqTNVXvsR8x8tVhYNbOoa0cAwpHMBwSXceAukyz8vCgauzd0D5JovG44AamY5uR7INnmtjp4oRClSslVgo7jZZVvHwbV68HuWpxH2A+DpysiuPMscPOuJuL7bZZCn5fIUCEpnqnl+bmZ1\/SE8V3LIoccbco+SS0an5mCEQOMIysTpoj\/kpEGe0Jx7EthW\/RcZtPd216pNTtOqE+jr0Ja38rXBZ1x3\/dDuJFqFIZZQps\/d+Y3hVtjzL9O7C8rwL60uUtvABEyWWYbvBsLn1Uu5c8YYvoGXYsS\/3MjzLbwgXDKQqXQ\/kq0oiiA18BBf7NA4ciFbiEbgW8qdxlDCHSxmCpF3S2ttQ+IJzBo4minBOsntVMqh86l1m2cY\/FZw7P\/3omLqfsqXf+9Tb+4319i5pMZ85jPlfNXclTGgSGcdchSNNwqDGgastqhhUl4Z099emD6nIasskzpR3CUqKmjK0PBgA2L8YXv2LVd2tpV+jZW0Ff+kbtz4C7CSOqZM4oUuNaCSC0mJnDFFcMk64IioYtpU6Z4aOWrLo6Sv4lkfuPtkWP6bVTb1zkocfaIkf8uqWbvldRFpbMkQN9tG\/2NOHn4shn3q\/sZrtm23GT6V7VTMEQbLbPSZhWYz8k+282UPS2L0Sf1F3GEvog\/v1lt41p9HQD2ju3gv26xqxOmelEhL2wizzuQg8OGoftHpb7uq0mLBuBMpotJ31vCv8Yyv5ReB6m7DxQbMCPfGMsRVYogkMkV6aqy1c6gemjJJotA9F6ECmSK7JRpU3gjebP5+VAP1PVsiH\/yez2q9BBw7rpW8E2E1vE98b0+IGyd\/LyKPMmW7bGJJT1SafaJWbhyC2PfXD5kRX+etwZkrSSI6ZNfYuf+bHSDD4VZQ4zSgxRG5l95ptvoKD0kbcr\/SpN1FyWPGgKC3MJ+0Eia3w6b98Y4M46P0MPZSi5LSTBOaiWo6o+wwwhAoMiQBDqCjmTzvP809yOiNWryirzvzqCZOl4lfVlWh7I3C6LjC8BVpIanhh6\/cfG0HG13MSpd22IPZmNPE5JdS\/LOKm\/hGPGNE\/c45FiHBgNi5IXtme+Z1lu3W9Fg+iBLT2O8vKVfYrmaU4qei9QgSoG0Nl20BqQuY7PBNpqW3Fj5UBogldpb74zjlhJIFMQ\/xL96ddEvUJw907ap5IoeKv+qs3dksTZ6DYOGNHf2VahTNQbPzF+mdst0whi+ySKk62xIoyhryIUnYXxfUX+NXxmKXra7S2BMrhimW4SMa6h4hNRrXI7XlI9MuamXZ3UZfX6T6povnHIna8qR8OncQy4FwZx8Y\/81\/bT+KNmIdl9Pkp\/CcRzxDX63vZk7Y6u29IESK47ryv1EYCr4f6ZWq3px8vP9yhqi\/8jmOsTIiS6NfdihXmRJ4T8pzSi6YT7V4vfCsV3KDR5e1+pDros1WB1LD5ZUH37Bio6TyUvsTsWZGYFtV87YSIflulKrvlurI6Z1V+B51gdtg\/7dc9Hq9\/RF61esov9ZhmP48ODlvb\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\"><style>#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-04-full.nxe{display:block;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:1180px;margin:0 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svg{display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-04-full.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-04-full.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-04-full.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SR-04<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Strategic Systems<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Small volumes, large dependence<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>9 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Critical minerals are the small-volume inputs that large industries depend on: lithium, cobalt, graphite, rare earths, gallium, germanium and copper. The 2025 and 2026 evidence shows supply concentration turning into disruption. Excluding rare earths, the average share of the top refining country rose to 72% in 2025, up from 70% in 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. China produced 270,000 tonnes of the 390,000 tonnes of rare earths mined worldwide in 2025, and 99% of primary low-purity gallium<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. In April 2025 China placed licence controls on seven heavy rare earths and announced an October 2025 expansion; the status of that expansion at the close is not bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. The DRC replaced a cobalt <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.trade-restriction\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Export bans, sanctions or embargoes that cut access to goods, energy or inputs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">export ban<\/a> with quotas of up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, and cobalt metal approached USD 58,000 a tonne in the first quarter of 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. The IEA estimates that full rare earth controls would put USD 6.5 trillion a year of downstream production outside China at risk<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Investment fell 9% in 2025, while public finance commitments in advanced economies reached about USD 65 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Responses include the G7 roadmap of October 2025, a US price floor of USD 110 a kilogram for NdPr oxide and the EU 2030 benchmarks<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>. This baseline reads these events as mechanisms, not as a list. It places no country or company in a league table, attributes no motive and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the critical minerals baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes: the top refiner averaged 72% excluding rare earths in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is mineral supply concentrated?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes: China placed licence controls on seven heavy rare earths in April 2025. The status of the October 2025 expansion at the close is not bound.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Are export controls real?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes: the DRC caps cobalt exports, and Zimbabwe and Mozambique limited raw exports.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Do producers also restrict supply?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About USD 6.5 trillion a year of downstream output in the rare earth case.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What is at stake economically?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Slowly: rare earth refining concentration eased modestly, and refining lags mining.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is diversification under way?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The G7, the EU, the United States and Australia use stockpiles, price floors and benchmarks.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Who is acting?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Little so far: the United States recycled USD 18 billion of critical minerals in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What does recycling add?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A lapse of Chinese controls that overlaps the cobalt quota and thin stockpiles. SCN-SR04-MAG-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-004<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The DRC replaced a February 2025 cobalt <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.trade-restriction\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Export bans, sanctions or embargoes that cut access to goods, energy or inputs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">export ban<\/a> with quotas of up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for strategic reserves, and cobalt metal approached USD 58,000 a tonne in the first quarter of 2026.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-fig1-t\">Cobalt: mine output and the export cap, tonnes<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">DRC mine output, 2025 (estimate)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">230,000<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">DRC export cap a year, 2026 and 2027<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"42.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">96,600<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">of which strategic reserves<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"4.2\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">9,600<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: USGS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Output and exports are different measures; the cap covers exports of contained cobalt.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">A producer that holds about two thirds of mined supply can move the market by decision. The quota also reserves 9,600 tonnes for state use and lets the regulator move unused quota to that reserve, which adds discretion for buyers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>. Refined stocks stayed high, so prices of intermediates and refined metal diverged<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">72<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>top refiner average, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">270,000<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">tonnes<\/span><p>China rare earth output, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">99<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>China primary gallium, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">96,600<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">tonnes<\/span><p>DRC cobalt cap a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>output at risk a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">65<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>public finance, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading critical minerals as one dependent network.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people mineral risk arrives as a late car, a dearer battery or a delayed device.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. A disruption puts very large downstream output at risk, public finance has grown fast, and refining projects outside the dominant supplier cost more.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Mineral risk is well described event by event and thinly measured as a system.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the 2026 state of the world\u2019s critical minerals and strategic materials and the couplings through which it carries risk into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a mineral-security ranking, a trade-policy position, an investment recommendation or an assessment of any producer, company or government. Mining, trade and stockpile decisions rest with owners, regulators and competent authorities.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 critical minerals edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cs-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Small volumes, large dependence<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>4 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>5 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is critical minerals risk concentrated?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry critical minerals shocks into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which critical minerals capabilities hold under compound stress?<\/li><li>What must 2027 evidence measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five mechanism chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Critical minerals are usually reported by commodity: lithium, cobalt, graphite, rare earths. The 2025 and 2026 evidence reads them as one dependent network. A few countries refine most of the supply, trade controls and quotas can move prices within months, and small volumes underpin very large downstream output<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The causes repeat. China placed licence controls on seven heavy rare earths in April 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. The DRC capped cobalt exports from October 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. Zimbabwe and Mozambique limited raw exports of lithium and graphite<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Prices followed: cobalt rose by around 130% and strategic minor minerals more than doubled<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Diversification is slow. Refining and magnet capacity lag mining outside the dominant supplier, and refining projects there face capital costs 20% to over 150% higher<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. In rare earths, diversified refining capacity equals about two thirds of expected mined supply by 2035, but planned magnet capacity only one third<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The edition therefore asks the same four questions of every event: what was the common cause, how did it spread, what was shared, and what threshold was crossed. It attributes no motive and places no producer in a league table.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-fig1-t\">How concentrated is the supply of key minerals? Share of world output, 2025, %<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">For each mineral one country holds most of the output. The shares come from different measures, so the bars compare reach, not risk, and refining shares are higher still for several minerals<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">China, primary low-purity gallium<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">99<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">China, natural graphite<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"82.8\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">82<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">DRC, mined cobalt<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"73.7\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">73<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">China, rare earth mine output<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"69.7\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">69<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">99<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>China, primary low-purity gallium<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">82<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>China, natural graphite<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">73<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>DRC, mined cobalt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224869<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>China, rare earth mine output<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The critical minerals-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for their critical minerals content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"rZbdbpswFIBfxfI1ccD8BCqIlGqpOnVdlalSr11wglWCkXGWZi\/W+z3ZZJwUSLKkCdwQcI50Ph9\/cE5YEJmCOCNlGcFcFAOaLCgECZFksI7gy3TyAEESwUdrZCLTsH1kghl2RsgxPBu5AAcucg0LBwhDUErB3+hgzRKZRtD6XEhImRIhyCaCNnDgOJRMZnT8QiQVQHIwzalYbG7Aejp5QCDdJIKDvx8g5jxj+SIc6vBwqFjH4bXEpmE5LjKBuvcMPPKQfz3yHefJDpgJwRZEMp73gWp5AXIMdfVBgJHTlfSekkymO9aSzCkoV0WRbS6DfXz6Nv01eZ4eAcYW8g3LtNEIOM5\/bUDYPYS7ZTxhv6komdzcgOU2BwJLllOwrqL+fgBJmBKh7ELcEBXMsOUjvEWut3ISWTuqmCv4JmyxWhYsX1SkghK5pLlUDyRmSX\/IgYuwgS0TjU4afJxZ61ojl6usSFdiR6l+51RIlrGSimst3itxxWi7yO2icb2FtscFX18KeqK42oHqzfuqwjXYCYeVFXPOZSFYLq8ua33amtTbfh1OmHuurMqHhsu6pmsm00SQNcnKXlix46uqBi6yO\/WJHWy7TbwyTquF3upqGrZpIa+LrjvUtqz5SgrWpT+0UXHFV71ZJ2T9KmpbXw2ckTwBMc+r5eux60KCWWB\/NuAO3uq6HprLxduci5j2QarwHENdu403NWtb3N5hTQO7uONgU8M2J5uMvPKV6IPTcZC\/7V4dnK0pj1kraMmSFb3641WDgVmAkacn3A62NiEPnI2JjFM1KvTCqyn9QGnQwdl94iOTecav\/+S2iL1AdTL9mnUwdx+56W\/Bs4zlnUbzPSl2\/axDj9gHbveKP5znvDyUeNGEzXlC4TiMmYgzCuL3CFbnD0GsclWqighiDw7HoaTvEtQRmwg6WN2o9QHJ45SLCC5ZkmQUjl8mz+FQ\/TMOh4uzSSvTdNKtbgdZtyEqwrZVxNG005\/TS9IqW3Ta7QkcptUhKsI3VcTRtHdPTxekVUd+OquOOJP0\/sclJVb6na6wjjhT4NvvzZ3+Aw==\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydro \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">safe supply<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">mine water \u00b7 tailings<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 treatment \u00b7 acid<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">sulphur \u00b7 acid \u00b7 fertiliser<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">power<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">mining footprint<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">withdrawals<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bioenergy<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">catchments<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydrology<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 MIN \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A licence on heavy rare earths halts magnet supply and cuts vehicle output.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2025 controls<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">MIN \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A producer quota lifts cobalt prices by around 130%.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2025 to 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">INF \u2192 MIN \u2192 DAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Weak smelter fees threaten by-product recovery of gallium and germanium.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2026 fees<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 MIN \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A Gulf shutdown curbs sulphur and acid used in processing and fertiliser.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">MIN \u2192 BIO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mine expansion triggers offsite <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a>.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> Africa 2001 to 2020<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Morton, O., Bousfield, C.G., D\u00e9gny Val\u00e9, P. et al., Mining triggers extensive additional <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature, 2026 (16,627 mines, 2001 to 2020). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c1-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the critical minerals baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>10 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-004\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The DRC replaced a February 2025 cobalt <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.trade-restriction\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Export bans, sanctions or embargoes that cut access to goods, energy or inputs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">export ban<\/a> with quotas of up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for strategic reserves, and cobalt metal approached USD 58,000 a tonne in the first quarter of 2026.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-fig1-t\">Cobalt: mine output and the export cap, tonnes<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">DRC mine output, 2025 (estimate)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">230,000<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">DRC export cap a year, 2026 and 2027<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"42.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">96,600<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">of which strategic reserves<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"4.2\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">9,600<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: USGS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Output and exports are different measures; the cap covers exports of contained cobalt.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">A producer that holds about two thirds of mined supply can move the market by decision. The quota also reserves 9,600 tonnes for state use and lets the regulator move unused quota to that reserve, which adds discretion for buyers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>. Refined stocks stayed high, so prices of intermediates and refined metal diverged<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The allocation framework beyond 2027, use of the strategic reserve and Indonesian cobalt output would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Minerals<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-001\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Excluding rare earths, the average share of the top refining country rose to 72% in 2025, up from 70% in 2023, according to the IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-002\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">World rare earth mine output was an estimated 390,000 tonnes in 2025, of which China produced 270,000 tonnes; the United States relies on imports for more than two thirds of the rare earth compounds and metals it consumes.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-004\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The DRC replaced a February 2025 cobalt <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.trade-restriction\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Export bans, sanctions or embargoes that cut access to goods, energy or inputs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">export ban<\/a> with quotas of up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for strategic reserves, and cobalt metal approached USD 58,000 a tonne in the first quarter of 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">China accounted for 99% of world primary low-purity gallium production in 2025, and European gallium prices were about five times Chinese domestic prices in 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">A July 2025 agreement between the US Department of Defense and MP Materials includes USD 400 million of preferred equity and a ten-year price floor of USD 110 a kilogram for NdPr oxide, and MP produced 2,599 tonnes of NdPr oxide in 2025, up 101%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Trade<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-003\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">China placed licence controls on seven heavy rare earths in April 2025 and announced an October 2025 expansion, and the number of Chinese tariff codes under export control has tripled since 2023. The status of the expansion at the close is not bound.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The IEA estimates that fully implemented rare earth export controls would put USD 6.5 trillion a year of downstream production outside China at risk, and a full disruption of battery-grade graphite trade over USD 300 billion a year.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Critical mineral investment fell 9% in 2025, and public finance commitments in advanced economies reached about USD 65 billion, over four times the 2023 level, with a gap between commitments and disbursements.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Infrastructure<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-008\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The benchmark copper smelter fee was settled at USD 0 a tonne in 2026, China\u2019s share of global copper smelting capacity rose from about 15% in 2005 to 50% in 2025, and many strategic minor minerals are recovered as by-products of base metal smelting.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>POL<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-POL-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-POL-009\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-POL-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">In June 2026 G7 leaders set a target to reduce dependency on a single non-G7 supplier of rare earths and permanent magnets to below 60% by 2030, and the G7 roadmap of October 2025 sets minimum criteria for standards-based markets.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-POL-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-POL-011\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-POL-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The EU Critical Raw Materials Act sets 2030 benchmarks of 10% of consumption from extraction, 40% from processing, 25% from recycling and no more than 65% from one third country, and the Commission adopted the RESourceEU action plan on 3 December 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is the October 2025 Chinese control expansion taking effect in a way that overlaps the DRC cobalt quota and thin stockpiles. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>MP Materials, MP Materials <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>European Commission and the EU Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform, European Commission adopts RESourceEU Action Plan (platform post of 10 December 2025; plan adopted 3 December 2025). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>4 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>9 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MIN \u00b7 Refining<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Top refiner average share, excluding rare earths<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">72<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>up from 70% in 2023.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">TRD \u00b7 Controls<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Chinese tariff codes under export control, against 2023<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">3x<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><\/span><p>status of the October 2025 expansion at the close is not bound.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MIN \u00b7 Cobalt<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">DRC export cap a year, 2026 and 2027<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">96,600<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">tonnes<\/span><p>less than half of 2024 production.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>USGS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup> \u00b7 IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Value at risk<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Downstream output outside China at risk, rare earths<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>about 7% of combined GDP; modelled.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MIN \u00b7 Rare earths<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">World mine output<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">390,000<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">tonnes<\/span><p>China 270,000 tonnes.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>USGS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Cross-system<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public finance commitments, advanced economies<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">65<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>over four times 2023; disbursement lags.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through critical minerals, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries critical minerals risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Sulphuric acid and water underpin mineral processing; evidence not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT \u2192 MIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>The 2026 Gulf conflict curtailed aluminium and sulphur supply; energy minerals drive demand.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2194 MIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Sulphuric acid links mineral processing and fertiliser; China curbed acid exports in May 2026.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2194 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Imaging and device minerals such as gadolinium; not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Mining triggered 187,000 hectares of direct <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> and about 34 offsite hectares per direct hectare in Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 BIO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>Lithium demand rose by nearly 30% in 2024, led by vehicles and storage<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 MIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Smelters are strategic midstream infrastructure; the benchmark copper fee was USD 0 a tonne in 2026.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF \u2194 MIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Investment fell 9% in 2025; public finance commitments reached about USD 65 billion.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2192 MIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Gallium and germanium underpin chips and optics; data-centre servers are a growing exposure.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 DAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>Semiconductors, robotics and AI raise demand for gallium, germanium and indium.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 MIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>The core system: a 72% top-refiner average and 270,000 tonnes of Chinese rare earth output.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Chinese tariff codes under export control tripled since 2023; heavy rare earth licences placed in April 2025.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2194 MIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on critical minerals, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>one mineral shock reaches magnets, batteries and chips<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>control lapse with cobalt quota<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>water and acid in processing<\/td><td>acid supply shock<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>lithium, graphite and copper demand from storage and grids<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>storage and grid build-out<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food and agrifood<\/td><td>acid and sulphur link to fertiliser<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>acid export curbs<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>imaging and device minerals<\/td><td>specialty material gaps<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance and economy<\/td><td>USD 6.5 trillion of downstream output at risk in one case<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>price shock<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>producer revenue and export policies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>export restrictions<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>demand for clean-energy minerals<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>demand outpacing supply<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>Gulf conflict curtailed aluminium and sulphur<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>regional shutdown<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>projected copper supply gap of 25% in 2035<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>copper shortfall<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>urban demand for batteries and cables<\/td><td>thin evidence here<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>mining <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> in Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>mine expansion<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>the Earth MRI programme remaps US resources<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>data access<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>chips and optics depend on gallium and germanium<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>single-supplier gaps<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>stockpiles, price floors and benchmarks<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>implementation gaps<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>cascade and trade-network models published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>data at operating scale<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Morton, O., Bousfield, C.G., D\u00e9gny Val\u00e9, P. et al., Mining triggers extensive additional <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature, 2026 (16,627 mines, 2001 to 2020). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Han, Y., Wang, P., Liao, Z. et al., Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model, iScience, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c3-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>20 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR04-TRD-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Export controls on rare earths and magnets take effect<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>the status of the October 2025 expansion at the close is not bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>; post-close, context only: a suspension reported to end on 10 November 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>vehicle, electronics, defence and data-centre makers outside China<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>refining and magnet capacity lag mining outside the dominant supplier<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>licences; stockpiles; new magnet production in Texas<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>TRD \u2192 MIN \u2192 FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 year<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR04-MIN-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Cobalt quota squeeze<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>a DRC export cap of up to 96,600 tonnes a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>battery and superalloy makers<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>no allocation framework beyond 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>Indonesian by-product supply of about 14% of world output<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; recycling<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>MIN \u2192 FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR04-INF-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Smelter stress and loss of by-product recovery<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>smelter fees at USD 0 a tonne and negative spot charges<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>gallium, germanium, indium and antimony<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>utilisation below 70% outside China in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>targeted support for recovery and refining<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>INF \u2192 MIN \u2192 DAT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR04-POL-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Slow diversification against concentrated refining<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>higher costs outside the dominant supplier<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>importing economies<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>refining and magnet projects lag mining<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>price floors, stockpiles and public finance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>FIN \u2192 MIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>5 to 10 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>due diligence and responsible-mining standards widespread; uptake uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>agency statistics and outlooks published every year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>no common cross-mineral warning; an IEA programme exists<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>national critical mineral lists and an IEA programme<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>US, Australian and DRC reserves announced; use not yet tested<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>an oil stock release in March 2026 is the analogue; no mineral release found<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>offtake and price-floor arrangements; not consolidated<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>restart time after a shock not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>substitution and circularity studies published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>support for mining communities not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>public finance, price floors and loans<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>G7, IEA and bilateral frameworks<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>refineries and magnet plants being built; gaps outside China<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>skills and equipment constraints noted<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>cascade and trade-network models published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas, third edition. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2016, cited from memory; the request returned an access error. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, IRMA Standard for Responsible Mining, version 1.0, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, Critical Minerals Security Programme, described in the Outlook 2025 and 2026 texts; the programme page was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>U.S. Department of the Interior, Interior Department releases final 2025 List of Critical Minerals (7 November 2025; 60 minerals; ten additions). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Congressional Research Service, U.S. Geological Survey\u2019s Critical Minerals List, In Focus IF13145, 7 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Yuan, X., Song, Q., Liu, Y. et al., Role of anthropogenic mineral circularity in addressing dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in global photovoltaic development, Nature Communications, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Teixeira, C., Gabbett, C., Synnatschke, K., Coleman, J.N. et al., A self-reliance framework for identifying strategic advanced materials, Nature Communications, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>G7 Leaders, G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, Kananaskis, 17 June 2025 (read in an archive copy of the text). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Han, Y., Wang, P., Liao, Z. et al., Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model, iScience, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Export-control expansion that overlaps a cobalt quota squeeze<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>3 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>the October 2025 Chinese expansion takes effect while the DRC quota holds and stockpiles are thin; post-close, context only: a suspension reported to end on 10 November 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>April 2025 rare earth controls; DRC cobalt quota, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 MIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">licence requirements extend to foreign-made products that contain Chinese rare earths<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">MIN \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">magnet exports fall and plants outside China wait for licences<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">MIN \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">prices diverge between Chinese and other markets<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">MIN \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">cobalt supply stays capped while battery demand grows<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025 \u00b7 2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 MIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">buyers draw on stocks and reserves; the net cost of stockpiling is modest against the impact<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">MIN \u2192 DAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">chip and device makers face gallium and germanium gaps<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01 would travel through Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Trade to minerals<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Licence requirements extend to foreign-made products that contain Chinese rare earths. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Minerals to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Magnet exports fall and plants outside China wait for licences. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Minerals to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Prices diverge between Chinese and other markets. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Minerals to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Cobalt supply stays capped while battery demand grows. Analogue or source: 2025 \u00b7 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Finance to minerals<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Buyers draw on stocks and reserves; the net cost of stockpiling is modest against the impact. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Minerals to dat<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Chip and device makers face gallium and germanium gaps. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-04, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026, scenario SCN-SR04-MAG-01<\/a> (2026); Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c5-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The global baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>15 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>41 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading critical minerals as one dependent network. Concentration is rising in refining, controls and quotas have turned concentration into disruption, and diversification is slow because refining and magnet capacity lag mining. Evidence is strongest for production shares and prices and weakest for stocks, secondary supply and end-use flows.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">MIN-001 \u00b7 TRD-003 \u00b7 MIN-004 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people mineral risk arrives as a late car, a dearer battery or a delayed device. The baseline asks that public debate treat minerals as shared and interdependent, and keep recycling, stockpiles and standards in view, not only mines.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">MIN-004 \u00b7 TRD-003<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. A disruption puts very large downstream output at risk, public finance has grown fast, and refining projects outside the dominant supplier cost more<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-006 \u00b7 FIN-007<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Mineral risk is well described event by event and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind stock data, test the control and quota compound, and map recovery thresholds before the next large shock.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 M-01 \u00b7 M-03<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for critical minerals. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability exist?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests show?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What changed in the year, and what renews?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Reports strategic desks<\/td><td>mineral chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness<\/td><td>strategic editorial board<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard is a decision of the competent standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Magnets need rare earths, batteries need cobalt and graphite, chips need gallium, and all of them need smelters and refiners. Treating each mineral alone understates how one decision becomes a shock in many industries. This edition reads the network.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>Minerals are one network<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Mining is concentrated for some minerals, but refining is more so. The top refiner averaged 72% excluding rare earths in 2025, and refining capacity outside it lags mining plans. Earlier data show the same pattern in 2022 and in 2024.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Concentration is a refining problem<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The G7 roadmap ties market access to labour, anti-corruption and environmental criteria. Evidence on uranium in cobalt exports and on deforestation around mines shows why oversight gaps matter.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Standards are part of supply security<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Recycling is small today. Models show that secondary supply can rise sharply in some technologies, but over decades and with surpluses in only a few metals.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Recycling is a long game<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 critical minerals edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 critical minerals readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 critical minerals readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Nexus risk class: a risk whose hazard, consequences or causal chain crosses national borders and acts at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can assess or manage it alone.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/glossary\/global-risk\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Forum glossary\">Global risk<\/a> state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 6 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>national chapters in preparation<\/td><td>national chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments and published guidance that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ISSUED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Critical Raw Materials Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>benchmarks and strategic projects<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Batteries Regulation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>recycled content and due diligence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Conflict minerals regulation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>tin, tantalum, tungsten, gold<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>OECD Due Diligence Guidance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>OECD<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>responsible supply chains<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EITI Standard 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EITI<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>revenue transparency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IRMA Standard<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IRMA<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>responsible mining<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ICMM, UNEP and PRI<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>tailings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO 31000 risk management<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>risk process<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Roadmap for standards-based markets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>G7<\/td><td>G7<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>minimum criteria<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Executive Order 14241<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United States<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>ISSUED 2025<\/td><td>permitting and finance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Executive Order 14285<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United States<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>ISSUED 2025<\/td><td>seabed minerals<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The G7 published a roadmap for standards-based markets on 31 October 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The EU adopted the RESourceEU action plan on 3 December 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The final 2025 US list of critical minerals added copper, silver and eight others, for 60 in total<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Post-close, context only: the decision on the suspended Chinese export controls due on 10 November 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Implementation of the EU benchmarks and strategic projects<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Mining Code negotiations for deep-sea minerals<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers critical minerals assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the world\u2019s critical minerals and strategic materials and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>agency statistics; market outlooks; policy texts; peer-reviewed supply-chain literature<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Ouyang et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>cobalt cascades<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Liu et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>battery chain recovery<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Han et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>rare earth trade networks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Manzuk and Philippe<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>uranium in cobalt exports<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Morton et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>mining <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Yuan et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>secondary supply<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Teixeira et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>self-reliance index<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sovacool et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>sustainable minerals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Graedel et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2015<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>criticality<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gulley, Nassar and Xun<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>competition for resources<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional flagships<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Outlook 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>markets and policy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Outlook 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>concentration trend<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical materials<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IRENA<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>mining and refining shares<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Panel report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>principles<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Minerals for Climate Action<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>mineral intensity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical Materials Assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>US Department of Energy<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>criticality assessment<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Statistics, lists and policy<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>USGS<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>production and reliance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Final 2025 List<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>US Department of the Interior<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>critical minerals list<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical Minerals List<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Congressional Research Service<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>list method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Professional Paper 1802<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>USGS<\/td><td>2017<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>criticality framing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical raw materials<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Commission<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>EU list<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards, directives and operators<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Critical Raw Materials Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Commission<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>benchmarks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>RESourceEU<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Commission<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>action plan<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical Minerals Action Plan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>G7<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>cooperation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Roadmap<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>G7<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>standards-based markets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Partnership release<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>MP Materials<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>price floor and equity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Results release<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>MP Materials<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>company-reported output<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US-Australia framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>market commentary<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>bilateral financing<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Supply of key minerals is concentrated, most of all in refining<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Export controls and quotas now move prices and volumes<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Diversification needs refining and magnet capacity, not only mines<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Whether the October 2025 controls were in force at the close<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. Post-close, context only: a suspension is reported to end on 10 November 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How far stockpiles can cover a sustained shock<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How fast recycling and substitution can scale<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the EUR-Lex request returned no text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023\/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2017\/821 laying down supply chain due diligence obligations for importers of tin, tantalum and tungsten, their ores, and gold from conflict-affected and high-risk areas, Official Journal of the European Union, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas, third edition. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2016, cited from memory; the request returned an access error. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, The EITI Standard 2023, Oslo, cited from memory; the page returned not found. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, IRMA Standard for Responsible Mining, version 1.0, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ICMM, UNEP and PRI, Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management, August 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>The White House, Executive Order 14241, Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production, 20 March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>The White House, Executive Order 14285, Unleashing America\u2019s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources, 24 April 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>European Commission and the EU Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform, European Commission adopts RESourceEU Action Plan (platform post of 10 December 2025; plan adopted 3 December 2025). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>U.S. Department of the Interior, Interior Department releases final 2025 List of Critical Minerals (7 November 2025; 60 minerals; ten additions). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Seabed Authority, Council and Assembly sessions in Kingston, March and July 2026, on the draft exploitation regulations (Mining Code), taken from search-result summaries and a research-institute blog; no official statement was found. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Han, Y., Wang, P., Liao, Z. et al., Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model, iScience, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>Manzuk, R.A. and Philippe, S., Uranium in cobalt-hydroxide exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nature Communications, 2026 (mine-level trade records, 2000 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Morton, O., Bousfield, C.G., D\u00e9gny Val\u00e9, P. et al., Mining triggers extensive additional <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature, 2026 (16,627 mines, 2001 to 2020). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Yuan, X., Song, Q., Liu, Y. et al., Role of anthropogenic mineral circularity in addressing dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in global photovoltaic development, Nature Communications, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Teixeira, C., Gabbett, C., Synnatschke, K., Coleman, J.N. et al., A self-reliance framework for identifying strategic advanced materials, Nature Communications, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sovacool, B.K. et al., Sustainable minerals and metals for a low-carbon future, Science 367, 30 to 33, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Graedel, T.E. et al., Criticality of metals and metalloids, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(14), 4257 to 4262, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulley, A.L., Nassar, N.T. and Xun, S., China, the United States, and competition for resources that enable emerging technologies, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(16), 4111 to 4115, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>IRENA (ed.), Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Secretary-General\u2019s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, Resourcing the Energy Transition: Principles to Guide Critical Energy Transition Minerals towards Equity and Justice, September 2024, cited from memory; the request returned not found. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hund, K., La Porta, D., Fabregas, T.P., Laing, T. and Drexhage, J., Minerals for Climate Action: The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition. World Bank, Washington, 2020, cited from memory; the request returned not found. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: U.S. Department of Energy, Critical Materials Assessment 2023. Washington, July 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Congressional Research Service, U.S. Geological Survey\u2019s Critical Minerals List, In Focus IF13145, 7 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schulz, K.J., DeYoung, J.H., Seal, R.R. and Bradley, D.C. (eds.), Critical Mineral Resources of the United States: Economic and Environmental Geology and Prospects for Future Supply, USGS Professional Paper 1802, 2017, cited from memory; named in the foreword of the 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission, Critical raw materials (web page; 2023 list of 34 critical raw materials with copper and nickel listed as strategic; earlier lists 2011 to 2020). Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>G7 Leaders, G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, Kananaskis, 17 June 2025 (read in an archive copy of the text). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 critical minerals agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 critical minerals edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">M-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would the October 2025 Chinese control expansion taking effect, overlapping the DRC cobalt quota, travel through magnets, batteries and defence supply at the same time?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR04-MAG-01 \u00b7 magnet and battery materials shock; first output: dependency analysis for six regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">M-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which minerals are single points of failure across the most end uses?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR04-SPF-02 \u00b7 single points of failure; first output: mineral dependency register.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">M-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How large are stockpiles and reserves, and how fast could they be drawn?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR04-STK-03 \u00b7 stockpiles and reserves; first output: stockpile table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">M-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where are refining and smelting capacity outside the dominant supplier thinnest?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR04-REF-04 \u00b7 refining and smelting capacity; first output: capacity map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">M-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do by-product minerals depend on base metal smelters?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR04-BYP-05 \u00b7 by-product dependence; first output: by-product flow table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">M-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which producers and consumers publish stock and flow data on a comparable basis?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">M-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do mining footprints and safeguards change under faster supply growth?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">M-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which mineral security capabilities have been tested in real shocks, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Mineral security capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 minerals portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR04-MAG-01<\/span><\/td><td>Magnet and battery materials shock<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>M-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR04-SPF-02<\/span><\/td><td>Single points of failure<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>M-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR04-STK-03<\/span><\/td><td>Stockpiles and reserves<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>M-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR04-REF-04<\/span><\/td><td>Refining and smelting capacity<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>M-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR04-BYP-05<\/span><\/td><td>By-product dependence<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>M-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-SR04-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Magnet and battery materials Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>M-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The critical minerals edition reads national mineral chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National mineral chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">mineral reading in each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">IN PREPARATION \u00b7 national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Sector editions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">energy, infrastructure, digital, finance<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 sector Baseline Editions<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Critical minerals system model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the global mineral system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">SR-03 supply chains \u00b7 SR-13 strategic technology infrastructure \u00b7 SR-14 resilience investment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Critical Minerals Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE DRAFT \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the critical minerals candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the critical minerals candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 critical minerals annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-SR04-2027-01 \u00b7 Magnet and battery materials Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead: drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>MIN-001 \u00b7 refining concentration<\/td><td>INI-SR04-REF-04<\/td><td>refining and smelting capacity<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MIN-002 \u00b7 rare earth output<\/td><td>INI-SR04-SPF-02<\/td><td>single points of failure<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TRD-003 \u00b7 export controls<\/td><td>INI-SR04-MAG-01<\/td><td>magnet and battery materials shock<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MIN-004 \u00b7 cobalt quota<\/td><td>INI-SR04-STK-03<\/td><td>stockpiles and reserves<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MIN-005 \u00b7 gallium<\/td><td>INI-SR04-BYP-05<\/td><td>by-product dependence<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-006 \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 value-at-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The loss level that will not be exceeded with a given confidence over a given period.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">value at risk<\/a><\/td><td>sector editions \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td>impact table<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>INF-008 \u00b7 smelters<\/td><td>INI-SR04-BYP-05<\/td><td>by-product dependence<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-SR04-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CODES ARE NOT JOINS<\/p><p>Series codes in this edition (SR-04 and its relatives) are Reports codes. Codes in other indices can look alike. This edition makes no join on a code alone: a join needs a registry record that names both subjects.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Mineral Commodity Summaries<\/td><td>USGS<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>MIN-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Critical Minerals Outlook<\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>MIN-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Export control announcements<\/td><td>Ministry of Commerce and customs<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>TRD-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cobalt quota decisions<\/td><td>ARECOMS<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>MIN-004<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical minerals list<\/td><td>USGS and Interior<\/td><td>per update<\/td><td>POL-009<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Company production reports<\/td><td>MP Materials<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>MIN-010<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Strategic projects and action plans<\/td><td>European Commission<\/td><td>per round<\/td><td>POL-011<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-SR04-001<\/td><td>Licence controls on heavy rare earths, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>TRD \u00b7 MIN<\/td><td>risk object RSK-SR04-TRD-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR04-002<\/td><td>DRC cobalt quota, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>MIN \u00b7 FIN<\/td><td>risk object RSK-SR04-MIN-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR04-003<\/td><td>Smelter fee collapse, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>INF \u00b7 MIN<\/td><td>research question M-04<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c7-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>9 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Common causes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One cause can strike many minerals at once: an export control, a producer quota, a conflict or a price slump. The shared cause matters more than the mineral.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3x<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><\/span><p>Chinese tariff codes under export control, against 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">heavy rare earths<\/span><p>under licence since April 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">96,600<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">tonnes<\/span><p>DRC cobalt export cap a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Export controls<\/td><td>China licenses seven heavy rare earths; the status of the October 2025 expansion is not bound<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Producer quotas<\/td><td>the DRC caps cobalt exports<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Raw export limits<\/td><td>Zimbabwe for lithium and Mozambique for graphite<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Price slump<\/td><td>low cobalt prices led the DRC to ban and then cap exports<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>TRD \u2192 MIN controls<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 FIN quotas<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 MIN conflict<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>common cause tagging of supply events<\/li><li>frequency of overlapping controls and quotas<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Post-close, context only: the 10 November 2026 decision<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>; quota allocation beyond 2027; new producer measures.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-13 Strategic Technology Infrastructure and Sovereign Readiness<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-14 Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes causes recorded in public sources. It attributes no motive and assesses no government or company.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Domino effects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.supply-disruption\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"A break in the flow of goods or materials between producers and users that stops production or leaves shortages.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">shortage<\/a> in one mineral removes an input from the next stage. A magnet licence delay reaches vehicle plants; an acid shortage reaches processing and fertiliser.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">heavy rare earths<\/span><p>under licence from 4 April 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22488<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of world aluminium output from the Middle East<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224825<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of world sulphur supply from the Middle East<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Magnets to vehicles<\/td><td>export volumes fell sharply in April and May 2025 and some automakers cut output<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Acid to processing<\/td><td>sulphur disruption raised acid costs; China halted acid exports from May 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Smelters to by-products<\/td><td>weak fees threaten gallium and germanium recovery<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Minerals to chips<\/td><td>the gallium <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.trade-restriction\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Export bans, sanctions or embargoes that cut access to goods, energy or inputs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">export ban<\/a> to the United States was lifted for one year in November 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>TRD \u2192 MIN \u2192 FIN<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 MIN \u2192 FOO<\/li><li>INF \u2192 MIN \u2192 DAT<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>timing of output loss in downstream plants<\/li><li>stock cover by plant<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Licence approval times; acid prices; smelter fee settlements.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-13 Strategic Technology Infrastructure and Sovereign Readiness<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-14 Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes dependency sequences. It assesses no company and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Inter-systemic feedbacks<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Mineral supply responds to what it enables. Demand from batteries and chips lifts prices, prices draw investment, and investment cycles shape the next <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.supply-disruption\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"A break in the flow of goods or materials between producers and users that stops production or leaves shortages.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">shortage<\/a>.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22129<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>critical mineral investment, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>fall in battery metals capital spending, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224840<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>cut in lithium company investment, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Price to investment<\/td><td>weak prices in 2024 and early 2025 were followed by lower investment in 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Demand to prices<\/td><td>lithium prices more than doubled on storage demand and tight supply<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Policy to price<\/td><td>the DRC quota lifted cobalt prices by around 130%<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cascade amplification<\/td><td>cobalt risk concentrates at refining and manufacturing bridges<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FIN \u2192 MIN<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 MIN<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 FIN<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>investment lags by stage<\/li><li>price transmission to end users<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Capital spending in 2026; lithium and cobalt project decisions; public finance disbursements.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-13 Strategic Technology Infrastructure and Sovereign Readiness<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-14 Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes feedback loops. It assesses no company or investor.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Shared vulnerabilities<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Different minerals share the same weak points: one refining country, by-product recovery at base metal smelters, thin stockpiles and slow magnet capacity.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">50<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>China share of copper smelting capacity, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&lt;10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of gallium in mined ores is recovered<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&lt;900<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD million<\/span><p>annual net cost of stockpiling 11 high-risk materials outside the dominant supplier<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>One refining country<\/td><td>the top refiner averaged 72% excluding rare earths<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>By-product recovery<\/td><td>gallium, germanium and indium come from base metal processing<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Magnet capacity<\/td><td>planned magnet output in diversified regions is about one third of expected mined supply<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Stock cover<\/td><td>stockpiles are an emergency buffer; holdings are not consolidated<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>MIN \u2192 INF<\/li><li>INF \u2192 MIN<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 MIN<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>stock holdings by country<\/li><li>capacity utilisation outside China<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Smelter closures; new refineries; magnet plant start-ups; stockpile tenders.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-13 Strategic Technology Infrastructure and Sovereign Readiness<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-14 Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes shared weak points in public sources. It discloses no vulnerability of any company and assesses no operator.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Thresholds and tipping<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A mineral system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Licence regimes, quotas, refined stocks and recovery capacity are such thresholds.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">25<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>projected copper supply gap in 2035<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224870<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of recovery in battery chains from cross-tier reallocation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4\u00d7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><\/span><p>avalanche network density against the physical cobalt chain<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Licence thresholds<\/td><td>the October 2025 expansion would extend control to foreign-made products<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Quota thresholds<\/td><td>the DRC can move unused quota to its reserve and has no allocation framework beyond 2027<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cascade thresholds<\/td><td>shocks can produce abrupt nonlinear failures<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery capacity<\/td><td>reallocation across tiers drives most recovery in battery chains<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>TRD \u2192 MIN threshold<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 MIN cascade thresholds<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 MIN recovery finance<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>cascade thresholds at operating scale<\/li><li>stock thresholds by mineral<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Decisions on the Chinese controls; restoration times after the next shock; refined cobalt stocks.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-13 Strategic Technology Infrastructure and Sovereign Readiness<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-14 Global Resilience Investment and National Portfolios<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes thresholds in public sources. It is not a prediction and assesses no company, state or government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>11 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>8 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>China share of rare earth mine output, 2025<\/td><td>270,000 \u00f7 390,000<\/td><td>\u2248 69%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>DRC export cap against DRC mine output in 2024<\/td><td>96,600 \u00f7 226,000<\/td><td>\u2248 43%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>US critical minerals that are fully import reliant<\/td><td>13 \u00f7 60<\/td><td>\u2248 22%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>DRC and Indonesia combined share of cobalt mine output, 2025<\/td><td>(230,000 + 44,000) \u00f7 310,000<\/td><td>\u2248 88%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Critical Minerals System Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-SR04-MINERALS \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent critical minerals as a dependent network and the mechanisms by which supply shocks spread between mining, refining, components and end uses<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which minerals and dependencies to measure first; explaining how mineral supply shocks spread.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 critical minerals annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Critical Minerals System Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>US mineral statistics<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Feb 2026 \u00b7 v1.3 May 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Market outlook<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>2026 \u00b7 revised Jul 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mining and refining shares (older)<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>Jul 2023<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>none found<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chinese export controls<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>Apr 2025 to Nov 2025<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>status at close not bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DRC cobalt quota<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>Sep 2025 \u00b7 Apr 2026<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>allocation beyond 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US critical minerals list<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Nov 2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>not fixed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU benchmarks<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>list update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>G7 roadmap<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Oct 2025<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>G7 follow-up<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MP Materials output<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Feb 2026<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>next results<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cascade and trade models<\/td><td>1998 to 2019 \u00b7 2025<\/td><td>2025 \u00b7 2026<\/td><td>ad hoc<\/td><td>none scheduled<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Rare earths<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>magnet stocks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cobalt<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>quota use<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lithium<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>2026 stocks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Graphite<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>anode capacity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gallium and germanium<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>by-product flows<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Copper<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>smelter capacity outside China<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recycling<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>secondary supply<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Stockpiles<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>holdings by country<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Stockpile holdings by country and mineral<\/td><td>national stockpile agencies<\/td><td>not published on a common basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Full text of the G7 declaration of June 2026<\/td><td>G7 presidency<\/td><td>only the IEA summary was read<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chinese announcement texts and numbering for the 2025 suspension<\/td><td>Ministry of Commerce notices<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>official texts not retrieved; sources disagree on the numbering of the joint suspension<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ARECOMS decision text and quota allocation by company<\/td><td>ARECOMS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>decision not retrieved; sources differ on how the 96,600 tonnes is split<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Status of the October 2025 Chinese expansion at the close<\/td><td>Ministry of Commerce<\/td><td>not bound by baseline evidence; one law-firm page carries a teaser on a truce extension to 10 January 2027 that was not verified<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Refining and smelting capacity outside China by mineral<\/td><td>IEA project data and company reports<\/td><td>only summary shares were read<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recycled supply by mineral<\/td><td>national statistics and industry<\/td><td>no comparable global series found<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Defence and aerospace end-use volumes by mineral<\/td><td>defence ministries and industry<\/td><td>not published<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Full text of Regulation (EU) 2024\/1252<\/td><td>EUR-Lex<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>request returned no text; benchmarks read on the Commission page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Text of the US and Australia framework of October 2025<\/td><td>governments of the United States and Australia<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>read through a market commentary only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Price series for strategic minor minerals<\/td><td>price reporting agencies<\/td><td>subscription data<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Status of the Mining Code for deep-sea minerals<\/td><td>International Seabed Authority<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>only search summaries of the 2026 sessions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs beyond reserves and finance<\/td><td>operators, regulators, ministries<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the International Energy Agency. Annual. Role: binds MIN-001, TRD-003 and FIN-006. Coverage: global. The revised version of July 2026 was read as extracted text; figure tables were read selectively.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR04-001<\/h3><p>IEA Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the US Geological Survey. Annual. Role: binds MIN-002, MIN-004 and MIN-005. Coverage: global production and US trade. Version 1.3 of May 2026; the chapters on cobalt, gallium, graphite, lithium and rare earths were read.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR04-002<\/h3><p>USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR04-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR04-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>estimates for several producers<\/td><td>selected minerals and policy; some figures modelled<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>first release in early 2026<\/td><td>revised version of July 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>versions 1.1 to 1.3 in 2026<\/td><td>revised and corrected in 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>sources and estimation notes stated<\/td><td>notes stated; projections modelled<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>federal science agency<\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>USGS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>: heavy rare earth chapter and the table of export controls by country<\/li><li>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>: rare earth and nuclear chapters<\/li><li>EU<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup>: full text of the Regulation<\/li><li>Ministry of Commerce<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup>: official announcement texts<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>ARECOMS<\/td><td>Regulatory and Control Authority for Strategic Mineral Substances<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CRMA<\/td><td>Critical Raw Materials Act<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DRC<\/td><td>Democratic Republic of the Congo<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EITI<\/td><td>Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA<\/td><td>International Energy Agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IRENA<\/td><td>International Renewable Energy Agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISA<\/td><td>International Seabed Authority<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NdFeB<\/td><td>neodymium-iron-boron<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NdPr<\/td><td>neodymium-praseodymium<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>REO<\/td><td>rare earth oxide<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>USGS<\/td><td>United States Geological Survey<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LMIC<\/td><td>low- and middle-income countries<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-SR04-MAG-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Regional notes<\/td><td>regional mineral cards<\/td><td>WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: top refiner share<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>the share of refined output held by the largest refining country for a mineral<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>percent<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>average across minerals excluding rare earths, as published by the IEA<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>IEA Outlook 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>depends on mineral coverage and on the refined product definition<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>does not record stocks, capacity utilisation or trade controls<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Commerce of the People\u2019s Republic of China, export control announcements of 2025 (Announcements 18, 61 and 62 and the joint suspension, numbered 70 in some summaries), taken from secondary summaries; the official texts were not retrieved and sources disagree on the numbering. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the EUR-Lex request returned no text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Seabed Authority, Council and Assembly sessions in Kingston, March and July 2026, on the draft exploitation regulations (Mining Code), taken from search-result summaries and a research-institute blog; no official statement was found. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>10 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>20 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Top refiner share, average excluding rare earths<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">72<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Top refiner share, same measure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">70<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World rare earth mine output<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">390,000<\/span><\/td><td>tonnes REO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>China rare earth mine output<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">270,000<\/span><\/td><td>tonnes REO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>China share of primary low-purity gallium<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">99<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World mined cobalt<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">310,000<\/span><\/td><td>tonnes<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DRC share of mined cobalt<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">73<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DRC export cap, cobalt content<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">96,600<\/span><\/td><td>tonnes a year<\/td><td>2026 to 2027<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cobalt metal price, near peak<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 58,000<\/span><\/td><td>USD per tonne<\/td><td>Q1 2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Downstream output at risk, rare earth controls<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">6.5<\/span><\/td><td>USD trillion a year<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Change in critical mineral investment<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u22129<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Public finance commitments, advanced economies<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 65<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US critical minerals that are fully import reliant<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">13 of 60<\/span><\/td><td>minerals<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US value of recycled critical minerals<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">18<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NdPr oxide price floor in the US agreement<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">110<\/span><\/td><td>USD per kg<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0A%22Top%20refiner%20share%2C%20average%20excluding%20rare%20earths%22%2C72%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0A%22Top%20refiner%20share%2C%20same%20measure%22%2C70%2C%25%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AWorld%20rare%20earth%20mine%20output%2C%22390%2C000%22%2Ctonnes%20REO%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AChina%20rare%20earth%20mine%20output%2C%22270%2C000%22%2Ctonnes%20REO%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AChina%20share%20of%20primary%20low-purity%20gallium%2C99%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AWorld%20mined%20cobalt%2C%22310%2C000%22%2Ctonnes%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0ADRC%20share%20of%20mined%20cobalt%2C73%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22DRC%20export%20cap%2C%20cobalt%20content%22%2C%2296%2C600%22%2Ctonnes%20a%20year%2C2026%20to%202027%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Cobalt%20metal%20price%2C%20near%20peak%22%2C%22%E2%89%88%2058%2C000%22%2CUSD%20per%20tonne%2CQ1%202026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0A%22Downstream%20output%20at%20risk%2C%20rare%20earth%20controls%22%2C6.5%2CUSD%20trillion%20a%20year%2C2026%2CESTIMATED%2C%5B2%5D%0AChange%20in%20critical%20mineral%20investment%2C%E2%88%929%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0A%22Public%20finance%20commitments%2C%20advanced%20economies%22%2C%E2%89%88%2065%2CUSD%20billion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AUS%20critical%20minerals%20that%20are%20fully%20import%20reliant%2C13%20of%2060%2Cminerals%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AUS%20value%20of%20recycled%20critical%20minerals%2C18%2CUSD%20billion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0ANdPr%20oxide%20price%20floor%20in%20the%20US%20agreement%2C110%2CUSD%20per%20kg%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B20%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Strategic%20Systems%20Report%202026%3A%20Critical%20Minerals%20and%20Strategic%20Materials%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Top%20refiner%20share%2C%20average%20excluding%20rare%20earths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2272%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Top%20refiner%20share%2C%20same%20measure%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2270%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22World%20rare%20earth%20mine%20output%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22390%2C000%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22tonnes%20REO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22China%20rare%20earth%20mine%20output%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22270%2C000%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22tonnes%20REO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22China%20share%20of%20primary%20low-purity%20gallium%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2299%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22World%20mined%20cobalt%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22310%2C000%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22tonnes%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22DRC%20share%20of%20mined%20cobalt%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2273%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22DRC%20export%20cap%2C%20cobalt%20content%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2296%2C600%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22tonnes%20a%20year%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%20to%202027%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Cobalt%20metal%20price%2C%20near%20peak%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%2058%2C000%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20per%20tonne%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Q1%202026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Downstream%20output%20at%20risk%2C%20rare%20earth%20controls%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%226.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20trillion%20a%20year%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ESTIMATED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Change%20in%20critical%20mineral%20investment%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%88%929%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Public%20finance%20commitments%2C%20advanced%20economies%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%2065%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22US%20critical%20minerals%20that%20are%20fully%20import%20reliant%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2213%20of%2060%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22minerals%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22US%20value%20of%20recycled%20critical%20minerals%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2218%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22NdPr%20oxide%20price%20floor%20in%20the%20US%20agreement%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22110%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20per%20kg%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B20%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Values are rounded as published. Shares from different measures are not added. The DRC cap is for exports of contained cobalt and differs from mine output. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">AIC<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national agency<\/td><td>global and US<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>production and import reliance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA Outlook 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>markets and policy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA Outlook 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024 to 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>concentration trend<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IRENA critical materials<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>mining and refining shares<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Export-control briefings<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>legal and advisory notes<\/td><td>China and US<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>control scope and dates<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DRC quota reporting<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>trade press<\/td><td>DRC<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>quota volumes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>European Commission pages<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU institution<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>2023 to 2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>benchmarks and plans<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US executive orders<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>government<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>permitting and seabed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>G7 texts<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental group<\/td><td>G7<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>roadmap<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MP Materials releases<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>company<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>rare earth output<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td>refining and magnet build-out; import reliance<\/td><td>magnets, batteries, defence<\/td><td>USGS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; company release<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>lithium, copper and graphite supply; export policy<\/td><td>batteries, grids<\/td><td>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>benchmarks, strategic projects, recycling<\/td><td>magnets, batteries<\/td><td>Commission pages<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.trade-restriction\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Export bans, sanctions or embargoes that cut access to goods, energy or inputs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">sanctions<\/a> and conflict effects not consolidated here<\/td><td>titanium, nickel, palladium<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td>sulphur and aluminium exposure to the 2026 conflict<\/td><td>aluminium, acid<\/td><td>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>cobalt, copper, graphite and lithium producers; export policy<\/td><td>batteries, grids<\/td><td>USGS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>national mission and processing build-out<\/td><td>batteries, magnets<\/td><td>national mission<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>refining, magnet and cell manufacturing hubs<\/td><td>magnets, batteries, chips<\/td><td>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>nickel and cobalt by-product growth in Indonesia<\/td><td>batteries, steel<\/td><td>USGS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>lithium, rare earth and gallium projects; a strategic reserve<\/td><td>magnets, chips<\/td><td>framework commentary<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Regional card: Democratic Republic of the Congo cobalt<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">region<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">cobalt<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">export quota<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">strategic reserve<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>batteries, superalloys, chemicals<\/dd><dt>Defining events<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.trade-restriction\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Export bans, sanctions or embargoes that cut access to goods, energy or inputs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">export ban<\/a> in February 2025 and quotas from October 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>MIN \u2192 FIN; MIN \u2192 TRD<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>a quota system and a strategic reserve set up in April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>quota use by company; stock levels<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>M-01 \u00b7 M-03<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Exports of contained cobalt are capped at up to 96,600 tonnes a year for 2026 and 2027, including 9,600 tonnes for strategic reserves [1].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">QUOTA<\/h3><p>Annual cap<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The regulator set up a strategic reserve in April 2026 and can buy, hold and sell [10].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">RESERVE<\/h3><p>State reserve<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Indonesia produced an estimated 44,000 tonnes in 2025, about 14% of world mine output [1].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">SUPPLY<\/h3><p>Alternative supply<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Regional cards are generated with the regional Baseline Editions. The DRC card is shown first because its quota is published.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the critical minerals edition through the mineral chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>IRENA (ed.), Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>China Briefing (ed.), How Will China\u2019s Rare Earth Export Controls Impact Industries and Businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven rare earths; October 2025 additions and extraterritorial rules; 45-day licence period). Dezan Shira and Associates. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission, Critical raw materials (web page; 2023 list of 34 critical raw materials with copper and nickel listed as strategic; earlier lists 2011 to 2020). Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>European Commission and the EU Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform, European Commission adopts RESourceEU Action Plan (platform post of 10 December 2025; plan adopted 3 December 2025). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>The White House, Executive Order 14241, Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production, 20 March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>The White House, Executive Order 14285, Unleashing America\u2019s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources, 24 April 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>G7 Leaders, G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, Kananaskis, 17 June 2025 (read in an archive copy of the text). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of India, National Critical Mineral Mission, cleared by the Union Cabinet on 29 January 2025 (outlay of INR 16,300 crore over seven years), taken from search-result summaries; the press release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-04-cb-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\">Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>14 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>48 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>U.S. Geological Survey (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026 (version 1.3, May 2026; manuscript dated 6 February 2026). U.S. Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>IRENA (ed.), Geopolitics of the Energy Transition: Critical Materials. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2023. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Pillsbury Winthrop Shaw Pittman (eds.), China Suspends Export Controls on Certain Critical Minerals and Related Items (client alert; announcements 55 to 58, 61 and 62 suspended from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026; Article 2 of Announcement 46 suspended to 27 November 2026; Announcement 18 of 4 April 2025 remains in force). Pillsbury, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>China Briefing (ed.), How Will China\u2019s Rare Earth Export Controls Impact Industries and Businesses? (April 2025 controls on seven rare earths; October 2025 additions and extraterritorial rules; 45-day licence period). Dezan Shira and Associates. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Law-firm briefing, BIS Suspends Affiliates Rule, China Pauses Rare Earth Export Controls (BIS final rule of 10 November 2025; China suspension from 7 November 2025 to 10 November 2026), read on the Legal 500 intelligence page. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Gonzalez, A., China rare earth export pause nears expiry amid persistent supply concentration, Mining Technology, 27 April 2026 (expiry on 10 November 2026; April 2025 controls remain; 2025 output shares). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Fastmarkets (ed.), Cobalt export quotas: DRC sets limits to rebalance global supply (ARECOMS announcement of 21 September 2025; 18,125 tonnes to the end of 2025; 87,000 tonnes base plus a 9,600 tonne strategic quota for 2026; effective 16 October 2025). Fastmarkets, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Shanghai Metals Market (ed.), Congo creates strategic cobalt reserve to influence supply and prices, regulator says (news report of 16 April 2026; reserve run by ARECOMS; 10% of national export volumes, 9,600 tonnes in 2026). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>European Commission, Critical Raw Materials Act (web page; 2030 benchmarks of 10% extraction, 40% processing, 25% recycling and a 65% single third-country cap, as shares of annual EU consumption). Directorate-General for Internal Market, Industry, Entrepreneurship and SMEs, Brussels. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission, Critical raw materials (web page; 2023 list of 34 critical raw materials with copper and nickel listed as strategic; earlier lists 2011 to 2020). Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>European Commission and the EU Circular Economy Stakeholder Platform, European Commission adopts RESourceEU Action Plan (platform post of 10 December 2025; plan adopted 3 December 2025). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>The White House, Executive Order 14241, Immediate Measures to Increase American Mineral Production, 20 March 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>The White House, Executive Order 14285, Unleashing America\u2019s Offshore Critical Minerals and Resources, 24 April 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>U.S. Department of the Interior, Interior Department releases final 2025 List of Critical Minerals (7 November 2025; 60 minerals; ten additions). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Congressional Research Service, U.S. Geological Survey\u2019s Critical Minerals List, In Focus IF13145, 7 January 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>G7 Leaders, G7 Critical Minerals Action Plan, Kananaskis, 17 June 2025 (read in an archive copy of the text). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>G7, Roadmap to Promote Standards-based Markets for Critical Minerals, 31 October 2025 (read on the Natural Resources Canada news page). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>MP Materials, MP Materials Announces Transformational Public-Private Partnership with the Department of Defense to Accelerate U.S. Rare Earth Magnet Independence, press release of 10 July 2025 (USD 400 million preferred equity; USD 110 per kilogram NdPr price floor for ten years; USD 150 million loan). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>MP Materials, MP Materials Reports Fourth Quarter and Full Year 2025 Results, 26 February 2026 (REO in concentrate 50,692 tonnes; NdPr oxide 2,599 tonnes; first NdFeB magnets on commercial equipment in the fourth quarter of 2025; company-reported figures). MP Materials, Las Vegas. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>CMC Markets (ed.), Unpacking the US-Australia Critical Minerals Framework (market commentary on the framework signed 20 and 21 October 2025; at least USD 1 billion from each country in six months; pipeline of up to USD 8.5 billion). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Ouyang, X., Liu, L., Liu, Q. et al., Systemic risks and cascading dynamics in the global cobalt supply chain, Environmental Science and Ecotechnology, 2026 (trade-linked flows, 1998 to 2019). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Liu, X., Huang, H., An, F. et al., Resilience assessment of lithium ion battery supply chains under critical mineral shortages, iScience, 2026 (multi-tier network of nine battery manufacturers). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Han, Y., Wang, P., Liao, Z. et al., Exploring the divergence of rare earth trade networks with a global simulation model, iScience, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>Manzuk, R.A. and Philippe, S., Uranium in cobalt-hydroxide exports from the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Nature Communications, 2026 (mine-level trade records, 2000 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Morton, O., Bousfield, C.G., D\u00e9gny Val\u00e9, P. et al., Mining triggers extensive additional <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> in sub-Saharan Africa, Nature, 2026 (16,627 mines, 2001 to 2020). Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Yuan, X., Song, Q., Liu, Y. et al., Role of anthropogenic mineral circularity in addressing dual challenges of resource supply and waste management in global photovoltaic development, Nature Communications, 2025. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Teixeira, C., Gabbett, C., Synnatschke, K., Coleman, J.N. et al., A self-reliance framework for identifying strategic advanced materials, Nature Communications, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1252 establishing a framework for ensuring a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; the EUR-Lex request returned no text. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023\/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2017\/821 laying down supply chain due diligence obligations for importers of tin, tantalum and tungsten, their ores, and gold from conflict-affected and high-risk areas, Official Journal of the European Union, 2017, cited from memory. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD, OECD Due Diligence Guidance for Responsible Supply Chains of Minerals from Conflict-Affected and High-Risk Areas, third edition. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2016, cited from memory; the request returned an access error. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Extractive Industries Transparency Initiative, The EITI Standard 2023, Oslo, cited from memory; the page returned not found. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Initiative for Responsible Mining Assurance, IRMA Standard for Responsible Mining, version 1.0, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ICMM, UNEP and PRI, Global Industry Standard on Tailings Management, August 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Secretary-General\u2019s Panel on Critical Energy Transition Minerals, Resourcing the Energy Transition: Principles to Guide Critical Energy Transition Minerals towards Equity and Justice, September 2024, cited from memory; the request returned not found. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hund, K., La Porta, D., Fabregas, T.P., Laing, T. and Drexhage, J., Minerals for Climate Action: The Mineral Intensity of the Clean Energy Transition. World Bank, Washington, 2020, cited from memory; the request returned not found. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sovacool, B.K. et al., Sustainable minerals and metals for a low-carbon future, Science 367, 30 to 33, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Graedel, T.E. et al., Criticality of metals and metalloids, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 112(14), 4257 to 4262, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gulley, A.L., Nassar, N.T. and Xun, S., China, the United States, and competition for resources that enable emerging technologies, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(16), 4111 to 4115, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: U.S. Department of Energy, Critical Materials Assessment 2023. Washington, July 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Seabed Authority, Council and Assembly sessions in Kingston, March and July 2026, on the draft exploitation regulations (Mining Code), taken from search-result summaries and a research-institute blog; no official statement was found. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of India, National Critical Mineral Mission, cleared by the Union Cabinet on 29 January 2025 (outlay of INR 16,300 crore over seven years), taken from search-result summaries; the press release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Commerce of the People\u2019s Republic of China, export control announcements of 2025 (Announcements 18, 61 and 62 and the joint suspension, numbered 70 in some summaries), taken from secondary summaries; the official texts were not retrieved and sources disagree on the numbering. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schulz, K.J., DeYoung, J.H., Seal, R.R. and Bradley, D.C. (eds.), Critical Mineral Resources of the United States: Economic and Environmental Geology and Prospects for Future Supply, USGS Professional Paper 1802, 2017, cited from memory; named in the foreword of the 2026 Mineral Commodity Summaries. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-ref-48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA, Critical Minerals Security Programme, described in the Outlook 2025 and 2026 texts; the programme page was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Strategic Systems Series SR-04<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 critical minerals edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-04-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SR-04<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-04-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-MINERALS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-STR-SR-04-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Critical%20Minerals%20and%20Strategic%20Materials\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Critical%20Minerals%20and%20Strategic%20Materials&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Critical%20Minerals%20and%20Strategic%20Materials\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Critical%20Minerals%20and%20Strategic%20Materials\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Critical%20Minerals%20and%20Strategic%20Materials\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Strategic Systems Report 2026: Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-04&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-04\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-04&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-04-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-04-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>SR-04 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-04 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Strategic Systems<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. 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