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\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\"><style>#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe{display:block;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:1180px;margin:0 auto;padding:0 16px;font-family:ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,\"Segoe UI\",sans-serif;line-height:1.55;overflow-wrap:break-word}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe :where(*,*::before,*::after){box-sizing:inherit}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe :where(section,header,footer,nav,aside){display:block;margin:0 0 32px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe :where(h1,h2,h3,h4){line-height:1.2;margin:24px 0 12px;font-weight:600}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe :where(p,ul,ol,dl,table,figure,details){margin:0 0 16px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe :where(ul,ol){padding-left:20px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe a{color:inherit;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:2px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;display:block;overflow-x:auto}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe :where(th,td){padding:6px 8px;text-align:left;vertical-align:top;border-bottom:1px solid;border-color:inherit}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe svg{display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-05-full.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Strategic Systems Report 2026: Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SR-05<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Strategic Systems<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Public budgets and markets stress together<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Energy shock, sovereign repricing and nonbank selling<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>9 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Fiscal and financial resilience is the capacity of public budgets, banks and markets to absorb a shock without a loss of confidence that feeds on itself. The 2025 and 2026 evidence shows high and rising public debt in the largest economies. The IMF puts global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and at 100% by 2029<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. UNCTAD counts about USD 111 trillion of public debt in 2025 and net interest of about USD 995 billion in developing countries, with 51 of them spending more on interest than on health or education<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Low- and middle-income countries paid USD 741 billion more in principal and interest on external debt than they received in new financing over 2022 to 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. The structure of the market has also changed. Nonbank institutions held 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt in 2025, up from 44% in 2021, while central banks\u2019 share fell<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. A new energy shock in 2026 raised global inflation by half a percentage point and pushed bond yields up<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>. Banks are better capitalised: about 75% of Basel Committee member jurisdictions had implemented, or were about to implement, the Basel III standards by 9 March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup>. This baseline reads these facts as mechanisms, not as a list. It rates no country, forecasts no default and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the fiscal and financial resilience baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes: higher interest costs, persistent deficits, energy shocks and ageing and defence needs recur across countries.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Do fiscal stresses have common causes?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Through shared holders, funding markets and bank balance sheets.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How does stress spread?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes: just under 94% of world GDP in 2025 and projected at 100% by 2029.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is the debt burden rising?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Developing countries spent about USD 995 billion net in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Who bears the interest bill?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 75% of members have implemented or will shortly implement Basel III; later status is not bound at the close.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Are banks stronger?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Nonbanks hold more than half of advanced-economy sovereign debt.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Has the holder base changed?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">It raised inflation and yields and added fiscal pressure.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Does the energy shock matter for budgets?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A sovereign repricing that overlaps nonbank deleveraging. SCN-SR05-FIS-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Global public debt was just under 94% of GDP in 2025, and the IMF projects it at 100% of GDP by 2029, one year earlier than it projected in April 2025.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-fig1-t\">Global public debt, share of world GDP (%)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">2025, just under<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"94.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">&lt;94<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2029 projection<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">100<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. The 2025 bar is drawn at 94 and is an upper bound; the page gives no more precise figure.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">Debt growth is driven largely by the largest economies, and interest costs add to it. Fiscal space can shrink well before a formal limit is reached, because market capacity to absorb bonds can change quickly<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&lt;94<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">% of GDP<\/span><p>global public debt, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">995<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>net interest, developing countries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">741<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>LMIC net payments, 2022 to 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">88.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">% of GDP<\/span><p>euro area debt, Q1 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">53<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>nonbank share of sovereign holdings<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">40.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>US federal debt, 30 Sep 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading public finances as one connected system.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people fiscal stress arrives as higher prices, a delayed clinic or a cut in services.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Interest costs are rising, net payments by low- and middle-income countries exceeded new financing, and market structure has changed.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Fiscal risk is well described in aggregate and thinly measured by holder and liability.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the 2026 state of the world\u2019s sovereign, fiscal and financial <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a sovereign credit rating, a default forecast, a market view, a league table of countries, investment advice or an assessment of any government, central bank, bank or fund. Fiscal policy, supervision and crisis management rest with governments, central banks and competent authorities.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 fiscal and financial resilience edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee\u2019s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cs-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Public budgets and markets stress together<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>7 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is fiscal and financial resilience risk concentrated?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry fiscal and financial resilience shocks into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which fiscal and financial resilience capabilities hold under compound stress?<\/li><li>What must 2027 evidence measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five mechanism chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Public finances are usually reported by country: a deficit, a debt ratio, a rating. The 2025 and 2026 evidence reads them as one connected system. Budgets depend on bond markets, bond markets depend on funds and banks, and funds and banks depend on the budgets that issue the bonds<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The causes repeat. Debt rose in the largest economies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Interest costs rose as a share of revenue in developing countries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. An energy shock in 2026 lifted inflation and yields together<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>. Deficits are projected to stay at or above 2025 levels in most jurisdictions in 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The holder base is different from a decade ago. Nonbanks held 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt in 2025, central banks held less, and banks held about 20%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. Repo lending to hedge funds often carries no haircut<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. Stress can pass quickly between banks and nonbanks and across borders.<\/p><p>The edition therefore asks the same four questions of every event: what was the common cause, how did it spread, what was shared, and what threshold was crossed. It rates no country and forecasts no default.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-fig1-t\">How large are the published debt-service measures? USD billion<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">The two bars use different periods and coverage, so they show scale only and are not added. One is a single year of interest, the other three years of principal and interest net of new financing<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Net interest, developing-country public debt, 2025<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">995<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">LMIC net payments above new financing, 2022 to 2024<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"74.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">741<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">995<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>net interest, developing countries, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">% of revenue<\/span><p>median net interest burden, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">741<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>LMIC net payments, 2022 to 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">8.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>LMIC external debt stock, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The fiscal and financial resilience-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for their fiscal and financial resilience content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"rZbfjps4FIdf5YhrxgHzJzAikaZq2q667Wi6I821A05ilcHINptmX6z3fbKVcTKQhJBJyE1EyAnn848PH5KSqBWkOZFyYhWivKPZklqQEUXu1hPrn+cfj98\/W5BNrG\/u2EGO7UXIgSfsj5Fvhx4KAMcBCmwXxwhbIJXgP+ndmmVqNbEwCqxpopjK6fSFKCpAcZgVVCw39yDrSyOoFMuZ2sCCFaRIKfz5DSVfUwEpl0omI\/P3ZKRBp0k\/7rfHj7MfD8+zbmDHdv0AOaCPQxuPQxQdErsIdyB\/4jy7h9ftxREwIdiSKMaLHfVlmKdSdcMY+bb+jCDGyO9m7Ez1CyW5WjWpSrKgIKuyzDd1otU8Zyms6qo62cuIX2YPXzt4sYsi23U8NAbfP2WB+3YiI3JFhCCbieWBf7yID4xn7F8qJFObe1jPHr4iWOR8La+Pt2UnPGE3QnjL26yjL18jq2arIZt8y+q1ZMXSSKoTltVcsozR+suB07fCjwOEbew6aNzncDe\/cXiHv6BCI0oqgBQZLCqaQylYSm8Xdc3nBSh4p8oN6qHLrFjk5mn78xvmVbakCkpBpawEBV5srb5W6D1sY0X9HA4xullLl9K5jryS9Gri5t4b4nC7Z5x2+iyx1qOluQFdM7XKBFmTXN6EFfuRTjcOkNc3Nt4NuxslhnbOOK1PDJkZR9k6tue4KOyReG9m7NB2DjdDo6iUYLXFQ7bffT5cQ9UP2QBbd8wnXU15UZ\/mxbXYTXrwFHtvk3iAsCbgY2W5+LngIqW3INV4vq0\/g0G+Nqz7xt4c1rFxgM+84bwf1oyMnQdzXolbcPo+irZDbICzDWWXtYJKllV00NtjAwdPMUahedvtMba9DbShWo62dgOiKkFyPdsEkUpUqarE1R60WQ1hFGsNBjh7uIJ9c1ebTPCcX7rXniAOYz3CzGM2wNxD5La\/Jc9zVtRvEbdAjvHbIOsZDJcC74aGQf6P84LLY4mXbdiCZ9SaJikTaU4h\/TWx6vtvQap71ZqKiYVDazRNFP2loKnYTCwf6wN9\/o4U6YqLifXKsiyn1vTl4TkZ6V+myWh5tmltmmm61e2o67ZEV3ieruhsO\/s+u6SttsW03d6B47amRFdEjq7obPvp8fGCtvqW93c1FWeafvn7koi1fv0Jm4ozAX\/4q73S\/wE=\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">utility finance \u00b7 power costs<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation finance<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">safe supply \u00b7 public health cost<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">flows<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping costs \u00b7 subsidies \u00b7 utility finance<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fertiliser and fuel prices<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">inflation \u00b7 budget pressure on health<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land use<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">withdrawals<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bioenergy<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition cost<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">natural infrastructure<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydrology<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FIN \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">An energy shock lifts inflation and yields and squeezes health budgets.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2026 energy shock<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A sovereign repricing meets leveraged nonbank selling in funding markets.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> BIS 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">DAT \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Hidden debt revealed to markets widens spreads.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> GEP 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 DEV<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Rising interest crowds out spending in developing countries.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> UNCTAD 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A fall in elevated equity valuations reaches households and budgets.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> BIS 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.4<\/span><span>Reinforcing loops<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Loop<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First direction<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Second direction<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Water to energy: utility finance \u00b7 power costs<\/td><td>Energy to water: pumping costs \u00b7 subsidies \u00b7 utility finance<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"3\">A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the fiscal and financial resilience baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Global public debt was just under 94% of GDP in 2025, and the IMF projects it at 100% of GDP by 2029, one year earlier than it projected in April 2025.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-fig1-t\">Global public debt, share of world GDP (%)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">2025, just under<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"94.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">&lt;94<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2029 projection<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">100<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: IMF Fiscal Monitor, April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. The 2025 bar is drawn at 94 and is an upper bound; the page gives no more precise figure.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Debt growth is driven largely by the largest economies, and interest costs add to it. Fiscal space can shrink well before a formal limit is reached, because market capacity to absorb bonds can change quickly<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The next Fiscal Monitor, the path of bond yields and issuance plans would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Global public debt was just under 94% of GDP in 2025, and the IMF projects it at 100% of GDP by 2029, one year earlier than it projected in April 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Global debt, public and private together, stood slightly above 235% of world GDP, or USD 251 trillion, in the 2025 update of the IMF database, with public debt at nearly 93% of GDP and private debt under 143%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Net interest on developing-country public debt was about USD 995 billion in 2025. The median developing country spent 8.1% of government revenue on it, and 51 countries with 3.7 billion people spent more on interest than on health or education.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Euro area government debt was 88.9% of GDP in the first quarter of 2026 and the EU figure was 82.9%; the euro area deficit was 3.1% of GDP on a seasonally adjusted basis.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Nonbank institutions held 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt in 2025, up from 44% in 2021, while domestic central banks\u2019 share fell from 27% to 17% over 2022 to 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 75% of Basel Committee member jurisdictions had implemented, or would shortly implement, the Basel III standards at 9 March 2026, and the rest had communicated their plans. The count of published rules and the share of standards completed at the 30 September 2026 close are NOT BOUND.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Japan\u2019s FY2026 government bond plan is JPY 180.7 trillion, of which JPY 135.8 trillion is refunding, and interest payments are 10.4% of general account expenditure.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">US federal debt outstanding was USD 40.2 trillion on 30 September 2026, of which USD 32.4 trillion was held by the public; Moody\u2019s lowered the US rating to Aa1 on 16 May 2025. US debt passed 100% of GDP in 2013.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Development<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-004\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Low- and middle-income countries paid USD 741 billion more in principal and interest on external debt than they received in new financing over 2022 to 2024, and their external debt stood at USD 8.9 trillion in 2024.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-011\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Higher government debt has been linked to sovereign spreads about 110 basis points higher in developing economies since 2010, and revelations of hidden debt cause especially large spikes.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-008\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The 2026 Middle East conflict cut crude flows by more than 10 million barrels a day, about 13% of normal supply, and global inflation rose by half a percentage point.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a long energy shock that forces a repricing of sovereign bonds while leveraged nonbanks sell and refinancing windows close for weaker borrowers. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Global Debt Remains Above 235 Percent of World GDP (blog on the 2025 Global Debt Database update, 17 September 2025; USD 251 trillion total; public debt nearly 93% of GDP or USD 99.2 trillion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 3.1% of GDP in the euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee\u2019s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Moody\u2019s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody\u2019s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), America\u2019s Finance Guide: National Debt (page read; debt-to-GDP surpassed 100% in 2013; live figures blank in the text). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>11 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Public debt<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Global public debt, share of GDP<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">&lt;94<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">% of GDP<\/span><p>projected to reach 100% by 2029.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>IMF<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Interest<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Net interest on developing-country public debt<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">995<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>median 8.1% of government revenue.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>UNCTAD<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DEV \u00b7 External flows<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Net payments by LMICs on external debt<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">741<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>principal and interest paid above new financing.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2022 to 2024<\/span><span>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Euro area<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Government debt, share of GDP<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">88.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">% of GDP<\/span><p>EU at 82.9%; provisional.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>Q1 2026<\/span><span>Eurostat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Market structure<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Nonbank share of advanced-economy sovereign holdings<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">53<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>up from 44% in 2021.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>BIS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Bank rules<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Basel Committee member jurisdictions that have implemented or will shortly implement Basel III<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u2248 75<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">% of members<\/span><p>status at 30 Sep 2026 is not bound at the close.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>9 Mar 2026<\/span><span>GHOS release<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through fiscal and financial resilience, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries fiscal and financial resilience risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Utilities and water works depend on public budgets and borrowing; no consolidated series here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2192 WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>The 2026 energy shock raised inflation and yields; fuel subsidies add to deficits.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Food and fertiliser prices rose in 2026; fiscal cost of support not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Health budgets compete with interest in 51 developing countries.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Natural assets and public finance link through disaster and land policy; not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster losses meet fiscal buffers and insurance; protection data are not bound here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Public investment is squeezed by interest costs; no consolidated series here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2192 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>The core system: public debt just under 94% of GDP, nonbanks hold 53% of advanced-economy sovereign debt.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Hidden debt and reporting gaps raise spreads; data transparency is a stated priority.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>Equity valuations in AI-linked firms are elevated; a repricing could spread to households and budgets.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Commodity exporters have weaker and more volatile fiscal positions.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Energy and trade shocks reach budgets through prices and revenue; chokepoint data sit in sibling editions.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on fiscal and financial resilience, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>public budgets and markets couple every sector<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>sovereign repricing with nonbank selling<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>utility finance depends on public budgets<\/td><td>deferred maintenance<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>energy shock raised inflation and yields<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>subsidy cost and price spikes<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food and agrifood<\/td><td>fertiliser and plastics up about 50%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>price shocks and support cost<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>interest exceeds health spending in 51 countries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>crowding out of health budgets<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance and economy<\/td><td>nonbanks hold 53% of sovereign debt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>forced selling and funding stress<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>USD 741 billion net payments by LMICs<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>refinancing windows closing<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>disaster losses meet fiscal buffers<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 concurrent-hazards\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Two or more hazards affecting the same area or population at overlapping times, straining response capacity simultaneously.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">concurrent hazards<\/a> and budgets<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>contingent liabilities not consolidated<\/td><td>unfunded recovery<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>public investment squeezed by interest<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>delayed renewal<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>local budgets depend on national transfers and bonds<\/td><td>municipal funding stress<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>public finance for natural assets<\/td><td>budget cuts<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>data for tracking disaster and fiscal exposure<\/td><td>data gaps<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>payment and market infrastructure outages<\/td><td>operational failure at a hub<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>Basel III rules and restructuring processes<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>implementation gaps<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>sovereign debt and banking crisis science is mature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>data at market scale<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee\u2019s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Laeven, L. and Valencia, F., Systemic Banking Crises Revisited, IMF Working Paper WP\/18\/206, 2018, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c3-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>23 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR05-FIN-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Sovereign repricing with leveraged nonbank deleveraging<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>higher yields and forced deleveraging by leveraged funds<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>advanced-economy sovereign bond markets, repo markets, banks<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>short-term issuance; zero-haircut repo; concentrated hedge-fund leverage<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>central bank backstops; margin rules; market-structure reform<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>FIN \u2192 FIN \u2192 INF, HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR05-DEV-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Debt-service squeeze in low-income countries<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>net payments above new financing; higher spreads<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>IDA-eligible and other vulnerable borrowers<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>external debt, thin reserves, hidden liabilities<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>multilateral lending; restructuring processes<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>FIN \u2192 HLT, INF<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR05-FIN-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Sovereign and bank feedback<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>bank holdings of sovereign debt of about 180% of Tier 1 capital in emerging economies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>banks in emerging and euro area economies<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>sovereign exposure; rollover risk in short-term issuance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>Basel III capital rules; supervisory review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>FIN \u2192 FIN \u2192 DAT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR05-CLI-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Disaster loss with thin fiscal and insurance buffers<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 concurrent-hazards\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Two or more hazards affecting the same area or population at overlapping times, straining response capacity simultaneously.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">concurrent hazards<\/a> and rising insured losses<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>governments with limited reserves or cover<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>contingent liabilities not consolidated<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>reserves; risk pools; insurance; budget contingencies<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 FIN \u2192 HLT, INF<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>annual<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>fiscal rules and capital rules widespread; application uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>regular debt and stability reports; hidden-debt data thin<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 debt-sustainability\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The ability of a borrower to meet current and future debt obligations without exceptional financing or a major correction.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">debt sustainability<\/a> frameworks and stability reviews<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>restructuring playbook and liability management guidance published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>fiscal buffers and reserves not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>central banks acted in earlier market stress<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>payments and market infrastructure continuity not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>restructurings completed in earlier cases; timelines long<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>rules and transparency standards revised over time<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>protection of social spending during adjustment not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>multilateral lending and insurance; protection gaps in sibling editions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>creditor and debtor forum in place; processes slow<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>market infrastructure; leverage data thin<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>debt-management and supervision capacity in low-income countries not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>crisis science mature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: G20, Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI, 13 November 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee\u2019s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma 1\/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025 (insured losses of about USD 107 billion reported in summaries), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Munich Re (ed.), review of natural disasters in 2025 (January 2026; insured losses of about USD 108 billion reported by news outlets; one outlet gave a different overall total), taken from press reports; the Munich Re page returned an error and no figure is used. Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Transparency Code, 2019, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>FSB (ed.), Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2025 (topic page; report published 16 December 2025; the page gives no figures). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 debt-sustainability\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The ability of a borrower to meet current and future debt obligations without exceptional financing or a major correction.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Debt Sustainability<\/a> Framework for Low-Income Countries (reformed framework in use from 2018), cited from memory. Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, December 2022 (gilt market and liability-driven investment episode), cited from memory. Bank of England, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Report on the 2023 banking turmoil, October 2023, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Questions and Answers on the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (page read; began February 2023; co-chairs IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency; supports the Common Framework). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Laeven, L. and Valencia, F., Systemic Banking Crises Revisited, IMF Working Paper WP\/18\/206, 2018, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Diamond, D.W. and Dybvig, P.H., Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity, Journal of Political Economy 91(3), 401 to 419, 1983, cited from memory. Observation year 1983. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kaminsky, G.L. and Reinhart, C.M., The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems, American Economic Review 89(3), 473 to 500, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Energy shock, sovereign repricing and nonbank selling<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-SR05-FIS-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a prolonged energy supply loss that lifts inflation and yields, with leveraged funds selling sovereign bonds<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>the 2026 energy shock; the 2022 gilt episode<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">an energy supply loss lifts prices and policy rate expectations<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">bond yields rise and short-term issuance raises rollover risk<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">leveraged funds deleverage and funding markets tighten<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025 \u00b7 2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 DEV<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">weaker borrowers lose market access and spreads widen<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">interest costs crowd out health and social budgets<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">banks with large sovereign holdings tighten credit<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-SR05-FIS-01 would travel through Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Energy to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">An energy supply loss lifts prices and policy rate expectations. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-05, scenario SCN-SR05-FIS-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Finance to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Bond yields rise and short-term issuance raises rollover risk. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-05, scenario SCN-SR05-FIS-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Finance to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Leveraged funds deleverage and funding markets tighten. Analogue or source: 2025 \u00b7 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-05, scenario SCN-SR05-FIS-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Finance to development<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Weaker borrowers lose market access and spreads widen. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-05, scenario SCN-SR05-FIS-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Finance to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Interest costs crowd out health and social budgets. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-05, scenario SCN-SR05-FIS-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Finance to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Banks with large sovereign holdings tighten credit. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-05, scenario SCN-SR05-FIS-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026, scenario SCN-SR05-FIS-01<\/a> (2026); Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, December 2022 (gilt market and liability-driven investment episode), cited from memory. Bank of England, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c5-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The global baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>16 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>41 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading public finances as one connected system. Common causes recur across countries, stress spreads through shared holders and funding markets, and recovery is limited by thresholds such as market access and restructuring speed. Evidence is strongest for aggregates and weakest for holder-level and liability data.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-001 \u00b7 FIN-006 \u00b7 DEV-004 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people fiscal stress arrives as higher prices, a delayed clinic or a cut in services. The baseline asks that public debate treat budgets and markets as connected, and keep the cost of interest in view alongside the cost of services.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-003 \u00b7 DEV-004 \u00b7 ENE-008<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Interest costs are rising, net payments by low- and middle-income countries exceeded new financing, and market structure has changed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-003 \u00b7 DEV-004<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Fiscal risk is well described in aggregate and thinly measured by holder and liability. The 2027 programme should bind holder data, test the repricing pathway and map restructuring thresholds before the next market stress.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 F-01 \u00b7 F-02<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for fiscal and financial resilience. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability exist?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests show?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What changed in the year, and what renews?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> strategic desks<\/td><td>fiscal chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness<\/td><td>strategic editorial board<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard is a decision of the competent standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">A deficit is financed by a market. The market is made of funds and banks that also hold other assets. Treating public finance and market structure alone understates how a fault in one becomes a fault in both. This edition reads the connection.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>Budgets and markets are one system<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Nonbanks now hold more than half of advanced-economy sovereign debt, and central banks hold less. Holders that use leverage can sell fast. Fiscal space can shrink before long-run fundamentals imply a limit.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Who holds the debt matters<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">In developing countries the interest bill is close to USD 1 trillion, and 51 countries spend more on it than on health or education. Net payments above new financing are a flow out of the borrowing country.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Interest is a transfer, and a trade-off<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">About 75% of members had implemented or were about to implement Basel III at March 2026; later status is not bound at the close. Restructuring processes exist and are slow. Transparency on hidden debt remains a priority.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Rules help, and application is uneven<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 fiscal and financial resilience edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 fiscal and financial resilience readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 fiscal and financial resilience readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Nexus risk class: a risk whose hazard, consequences or causal chain crosses national borders and acts at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can assess or manage it alone.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/glossary\/global-risk\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Forum glossary\">Global risk<\/a> state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 6 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>national chapters in preparation<\/td><td>national chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments and published guidance that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Basel Committee<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2017<\/td><td>bank capital<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Governors and Heads of Supervision release on Basel III<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Basel Committee<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>adoption status<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 debt-sustainability\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The ability of a borrower to meet current and future debt obligations without exceptional financing or a major correction.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Debt Sustainability<\/a> Framework for Low-Income Countries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF and World Bank<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>debt sustainability<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Common Framework for Debt Treatments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>G20<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2020<\/td><td>debt restructuring<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fiscal Transparency Code<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>fiscal disclosure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Restructuring playbook and liability management manual<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>restructuring practice<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Monitoring Report on NBFI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Financial Stability Board<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>nonbank monitoring<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Report on the 2023 banking turmoil<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Basel Committee<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>bank supervision lessons<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Post-close, context only: the Basel Committee reported on 5 October 2026 that nearly all members have announced an application date of April 2027 or earlier<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Roundtable issued its sixth and seventh co-chairs reports in April and October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The ECB published its May 2026 Financial Stability Review on 27 May 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Application of Basel III in the remaining members<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Treatment of nonbank leverage in sovereign markets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Use of the Common Framework and outside processes in new restructurings<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers fiscal and financial resilience assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the world\u2019s sovereign, fiscal and financial <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>official statistics; central bank and multilateral reports; peer-reviewed sovereign debt and banking crisis literature; loss statistics<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Reinhart and Rogoff, This Time Is Different<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>book<\/td><td>2009<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>financial crises<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Laeven and Valencia<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>working paper<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>banking crises<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diamond and Dybvig<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>1983<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>runs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Blanchard<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>debt and interest rates<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kaminsky and Reinhart<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>1999<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>twin crises<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Brunnermeier et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2016<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>sovereign-bank loop<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gennaioli, Martin and Rossi<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2014<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>domestic banks and default<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional flagships<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Fiscal Monitor, April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>public debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>rollover and nonbank risk<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Economic Outlook, April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>growth and risks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Annual Economic Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>BIS<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>fiscal-financial nexus<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Financial Stability Review, May 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ECB<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>euro area vulnerabilities<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Economic Prospects, June 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>spreads and hidden debt<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Statistics, losses and market data<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A World of Debt 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNCTAD<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>interest burden<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>International Debt Report 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>external debt flows<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Debt Database update<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>total debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Government debt release<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Eurostat<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>euro area debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Government deficit release<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Eurostat<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>euro area deficit<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Debt to the Penny, 30 Sep 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>US Treasury<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>US federal debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>JGB investor presentation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Ministry of Finance Japan<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>Japanese issuance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Debt Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>OECD<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>sovereign borrowing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget and Economic Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CBO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>US baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nat cat insured losses<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Swiss Re \u00b7 Munich Re<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>insurance gap<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards, rules and official forums<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Governors and Heads of Supervision release<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Basel Committee<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>banking rules<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Monitoring Report on NBFI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Financial Stability Board<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>nonbank sector<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Roundtable co-chairs reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF, World Bank, G20 Presidency<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>restructuring process<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Roundtable questions and answers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>roundtable scope<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US rating action<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Moody\u2019s<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>rating change<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rating actions on France<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Fitch \u00b7 S&amp;P<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>rating change<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Senegal hidden debt reporting<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>press reports<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>hidden debt<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Global public debt is high and projected to keep rising<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Interest costs weigh on developing-country budgets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The holder base of sovereign debt has shifted toward nonbanks<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How fast leveraged nonbanks would sell in a stress<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How large hidden public liabilities are<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How long the 2026 energy shock will last<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee\u2019s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 debt-sustainability\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The ability of a borrower to meet current and future debt obligations without exceptional financing or a major correction.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Debt Sustainability<\/a> Framework for Low-Income Countries (reformed framework in use from 2018), cited from memory. Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: G20, Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI, 13 November 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Transparency Code, 2019, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>FSB (ed.), Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2025 (topic page; report published 16 December 2025; the page gives no figures). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Report on the 2023 banking turmoil, October 2023, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: media release of 5 October 2026 and RCAP implementation page (assessment date 30 September 2026; 27 members). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Laeven, L. and Valencia, F., Systemic Banking Crises Revisited, IMF Working Paper WP\/18\/206, 2018, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Diamond, D.W. and Dybvig, P.H., Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity, Journal of Political Economy 91(3), 401 to 419, 1983, cited from memory. Observation year 1983. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Blanchard, O., Public debt and low interest rates, American Economic Review 109(4), 1197 to 1229, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kaminsky, G.L. and Reinhart, C.M., The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems, American Economic Review 89(3), 473 to 500, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Brunnermeier, M.K., Garicano, L., Lane, P.R., Pagano, M., Reis, R., Santos, T., Thesmar, D., Van Nieuwerburgh, S. and Vayanos, D., The sovereign-bank diabolic loop and ESBies, American Economic Review 106(5), 508 to 512, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gennaioli, N., Martin, A. and Rossi, S., Sovereign default, domestic banks, and financial institutions, Journal of Finance 69(2), 819 to 866, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026 (page of 14 April 2026; growth 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027; downside risks). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026 (report page of 28 June 2026; chapter titles; fiscal-financial stability nexus). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Global Debt Remains Above 235 Percent of World GDP (blog on the 2025 Global Debt Database update, 17 September 2025; USD 251 trillion total; public debt nearly 93% of GDP or USD 99.2 trillion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 3.1% of GDP in the euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Global Debt Report 2026 (released 4 March 2026; record gross sovereign borrowing in the OECD area; refinancing needs; shorter maturities), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Budget Office (ed.), The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. CBO, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma 1\/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025 (insured losses of about USD 107 billion reported in summaries), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Munich Re (ed.), review of natural disasters in 2025 (January 2026; insured losses of about USD 108 billion reported by news outlets; one outlet gave a different overall total), taken from press reports; the Munich Re page returned an error and no figure is used. Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Questions and Answers on the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (page read; began February 2023; co-chairs IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency; supports the Common Framework). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Moody\u2019s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody\u2019s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fitch Ratings, France downgraded to A+ from AA-, September 2025, taken from press summaries. Fitch Ratings, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: S&amp;P Global Ratings, France downgraded to A+ from AA-, October 2025, taken from press summaries. S&amp;P Global Ratings, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 fiscal and financial resilience agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 fiscal and financial resilience edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a long energy shock that forces a repricing of sovereign bonds spread through banks, funds and weaker borrowers at the same time?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR05-RPR-01 \u00b7 sovereign repricing and nonbank deleveraging; first output: transmission analysis for six regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Who holds sovereign debt in each region, and how fast can those holders sell?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR05-HLD-02 \u00b7 holder base; first output: holdings register by investor type.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How large are hidden and contingent public liabilities, and how are they disclosed?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR05-LIA-03 \u00b7 hidden liabilities; first output: liability disclosure table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How long do restructurings take, and what slows them?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR05-RST-04 \u00b7 restructuring timelines; first output: timeline table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do disaster losses meet fiscal buffers, reserves and insurance?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR05-DIS-05 \u00b7 disaster fiscal cost; first output: buffer overlay.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which governments publish interest costs and debt maturity on a comparable basis?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do defence, ageing and climate spending change fiscal space?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which fiscal and financial capabilities have been tested in real stress, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Fiscal capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 fiscal and financial portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR05-RPR-01<\/span><\/td><td>Sovereign repricing and nonbank deleveraging<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR05-HLD-02<\/span><\/td><td>Holder base of sovereign debt<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR05-LIA-03<\/span><\/td><td>Hidden and contingent liabilities<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR05-RST-04<\/span><\/td><td>Restructuring timelines<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR05-DIS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster fiscal cost and buffers<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-SR05-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Sovereign repricing Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>F-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The fiscal and financial resilience edition reads national public-finance chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National public-finance chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">fiscal reading in each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">IN PREPARATION \u00b7 national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Sector editions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finance, development, policy, cities<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 sector Baseline Editions<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Fiscal and financial system model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the global fiscal system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">SR-01 \u00b7 SR-03 supply chains \u00b7 SR-07 inequality and social contract<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Fiscal and Financial Resilience Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE DRAFT \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the fiscal and financial resilience candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the fiscal and financial resilience candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 fiscal and financial resilience annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-SR05-2027-01 \u00b7 Sovereign repricing Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead: drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>FIN-001 \u00b7 public debt<\/td><td>INI-SR05-HLD-02<\/td><td>holder base<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-003 \u00b7 interest burden<\/td><td>INI-SR05-LIA-03<\/td><td>hidden and contingent liabilities<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DEV-004 \u00b7 net payments<\/td><td>INI-SR05-RST-04<\/td><td>restructuring timelines<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-006 \u00b7 holder base<\/td><td>INI-SR05-HLD-02<\/td><td>holder base of sovereign debt<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-007 \u00b7 banking rules<\/td><td>sector editions<\/td><td>bank rules and holdings<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENE-008 \u00b7 energy shock<\/td><td>INI-SR05-RPR-01 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td>sovereign repricing and nonbank deleveraging<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DEV-011 \u00b7 spreads<\/td><td>INI-SR05-LIA-03<\/td><td>hidden liabilities<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-SR05-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CODES ARE NOT JOINS<\/p><p>Series codes in this edition (SR-05 and its relatives) are Reports codes. Codes in other indices can look alike. This edition makes no join on a code alone: a join needs a registry record that names both subjects.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Public debt series<\/td><td>IMF Fiscal Monitor and databases<\/td><td>semi-annual<\/td><td>FIN-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Debt stock and interest<\/td><td>UNCTAD<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>FIN-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External debt flows<\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>DEV-004<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Euro area debt and deficit<\/td><td>Eurostat<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>FIN-005<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Treasury debt data<\/td><td>US Treasury<\/td><td>daily<\/td><td>FIN-010<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Banking rules status<\/td><td>Basel Committee<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>FIN-007<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Stability reviews<\/td><td>ECB, IMF, BIS<\/td><td>semi-annual<\/td><td>FIN-006<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-SR05-001<\/td><td>Nonbank share of sovereign holdings above half in advanced economies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>FIN \u00b7 DAT<\/td><td>risk object RSK-SR05-FIN-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR05-002<\/td><td>Net payments above new financing for LMICs over three years<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>DEV \u00b7 FIN<\/td><td>research question F-04<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR05-003<\/td><td>Hidden debt revealed in a sovereign borrower in 2025 and 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>DEV \u00b7 DAT<\/td><td>research question F-03<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c7-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>8 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>18 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Common causes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One cause can strike many budgets and markets at once: an energy shock, a rise in rates, a war or a loss of confidence. The shared cause matters more than the country.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&lt;94<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">% of GDP<\/span><p>global public debt, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million barrels a day<\/span><p>crude flow losses in the 2026 conflict<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">% of GDP<\/span><p>average cyclically adjusted primary deficit in advanced economies since 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Persistent deficits<\/td><td>deficits projected at or above 2025 levels in 2027 in most jurisdictions<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rising interest costs<\/td><td>interest weighs on budgets, most in developing countries<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy shock<\/td><td>inflation up by half a percentage point; yields up<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spending pressures<\/td><td>social needs, defence and strategic autonomy strain budgets<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 FIN energy shock<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 FIN interest costs<\/li><li>CON \u2192 FIN conflict<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>common cause tagging of fiscal stress episodes<\/li><li>frequency of concurrent causes<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Fiscal Monitor updates; energy prices; central bank rate paths; conflict developments.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Inequality and the Social Contract<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance and Economy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes causes recorded in public sources. It rates no country and assesses no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Domino effects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A failure in one market removes funding or confidence from the next. Stress in sovereign bonds reaches funds, banks and weaker borrowers in sequence.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">53<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>nonbank share of advanced-economy sovereign holdings, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u2248180<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>bank sovereign exposure to Tier 1 capital, emerging economies, 2025 median<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224870<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>bilateral USD repos with hedge funds at zero haircut<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Bonds to funds<\/td><td>leveraged funds intermediate government debt and can sell fast<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Funds to banks<\/td><td>repo and prime brokerage link funds to banks<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Banks to sovereigns<\/td><td>bank holdings tie bank health to the sovereign<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Markets to weaker borrowers<\/td><td>portfolio flows to emerging markets run through nonbanks<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FIN \u2192 FIN bonds to funds<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 FIN funds to banks<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 DEV market access<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>timing of selling by investor type<\/li><li>bank-level sovereign exposure by country<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Haircut and margin practice; fund leverage reporting; emerging-market flows.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Inequality and the Social Contract<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance and Economy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes dependency sequences. It assesses no fund, bank or government and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Inter-systemic feedbacks<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Budgets depend on markets, and markets depend on budgets. Yields feed interest costs, interest costs feed debt, and debt feeds yields.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;50<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of the rise in nominal debt in 2025 to 2030 from interest, per IMF projections cited by the BIS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>US Treasury market crisis probability when debt-to-GDP is high<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">0.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>same probability when debt-to-GDP is low<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Interest to debt<\/td><td>higher yields raise interest, which adds to debt<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Debt to yields<\/td><td>high debt weakens monetary transmission and lifts yield swings<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Banks and sovereigns<\/td><td>sovereign stress hits banks, which hold the debt<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Growth and revenue<\/td><td>lower growth cuts revenue and lifts the ratio<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FIN \u2192 FIN interest to debt<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 FIN debt to yields<\/li><li>FIN \u2194 FIN banks and sovereigns<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>feedback strength by country<\/li><li>effect of nonbank holders on the loop<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The gap between yields and nominal growth; central bank intervention in bond markets; euro area spreads.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Inequality and the Social Contract<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance and Economy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes feedback loops. It assesses no government or central bank.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Shared vulnerabilities<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Different budgets share the same weak points: the same holders, the same funding markets, short-term issuance and hidden debt.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">40.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>US federal debt outstanding, 30 Sep 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">180.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">JPY trillion<\/span><p>Japan FY2026 bond plan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">110<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">basis points<\/span><p>sovereign spread linked to higher debt in developing economies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Concentrated holders<\/td><td>a few investor classes hold most advanced-economy debt<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Short-term issuance<\/td><td>governments lean to shorter bonds and raise rollover risk<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hidden liabilities<\/td><td>revelations cause large spikes in spreads<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Safe-asset status<\/td><td>a weakened US Treasury safety premium raises repricing risk<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FIN \u2192 FIN holder concentration<\/li><li>DAT \u2192 FIN hidden debt<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 FIN safe-asset premium<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>investor holdings outside advanced economies<\/li><li>contingent liabilities on a common basis<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Issuance plans and maturity choices; disclosure standards; ratings actions.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Inequality and the Social Contract<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance and Economy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes shared weak points in public sources. It rates no issuer and assesses no investor.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Thresholds and tipping<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Market access, restructuring speed and bank capital are such thresholds for public finances.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">741<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>LMIC net payments above new financing, 2022 to 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">51<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">countries<\/span><p>spending more on interest than on health or education<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u2248 75<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of Basel Committee members implementing or about to implement Basel III, 9 Mar 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Market access<\/td><td>net payments above new financing signal closing windows<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Restructuring capacity<\/td><td>playbook and manual updated; processes still slow<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bank capital<\/td><td>about 75% of members implementing or about to implement; later status not bound<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tipping in markets<\/td><td>fiscal space can shrink well before a long-run limit<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FIN \u2192 DEV market access<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 FIN restructuring<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 FIN bank capital<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>restructuring timelines<\/li><li>thresholds at which funding markets <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Roundtable reports; new restructurings; Basel III application status.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Inequality and the Social Contract<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-05 Finance and Economy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes thresholds in public sources. It is not a prediction and assesses no state or institution.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Brunnermeier, M.K., Garicano, L., Lane, P.R., Pagano, M., Reis, R., Santos, T., Thesmar, D., Van Nieuwerburgh, S. and Vayanos, D., The sovereign-bank diabolic loop and ESBies, American Economic Review 106(5), 508 to 512, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gennaioli, N., Martin, A. and Rossi, S., Sovereign default, domestic banks, and financial institutions, Journal of Finance 69(2), 819 to 866, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026 (page of 14 April 2026; growth 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027; downside risks). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Global Debt Report 2026 (released 4 March 2026; record gross sovereign borrowing in the OECD area; refinancing needs; shorter maturities), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Moody\u2019s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody\u2019s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee\u2019s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>13 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>12 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Gap between two published global public debt stocks<\/td><td>111 \u2212 99.2<\/td><td>\u2248 11.8 USD trillion<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Net interest per day, developing countries, 2025<\/td><td>995 \u00f7 365<\/td><td>\u2248 2.7 USD billion<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Refunding share of the FY2026 Japanese bond plan<\/td><td>135.8 \u00f7 180.7<\/td><td>\u2248 75%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Share of US federal debt held by the public<\/td><td>32.43 \u00f7 40.17<\/td><td>\u2248 81%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Fiscal and Financial System Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-SR05-FISCAL \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent public budgets, bond markets, banks and nonbank funds as a connected system and the mechanisms by which fiscal and financial stress spreads between them<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which holder and liability data to bind first; explaining how fiscal and financial stress spreads.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>45 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 fiscal and financial resilience annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Fiscal and Financial System Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Public debt, global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Apr 2026<\/td><td>semi-annual<\/td><td>Oct 2026 report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Total debt, public and private<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Sep 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next database update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Developing-country interest<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next UNCTAD edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External debt flows<\/td><td>2022 to 2024<\/td><td>Dec 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next debt report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Euro area debt<\/td><td>Q1 2026<\/td><td>Jul 2026<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>next release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Holder base of sovereign debt<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jun 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>BIS 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Basel III status<\/td><td>Mar 2026<\/td><td>Mar 2026<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next Basel Committee update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US federal debt<\/td><td>30 Sep 2026<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>daily<\/td><td>daily<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Japanese issuance plan<\/td><td>FY2026<\/td><td>Aug 2026<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>FY2027 plan<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hidden debt cases<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Aug to Sep 2026<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>not verified<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Advanced-economy public debt<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>holder detail<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emerging-economy public debt<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>holder detail<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Low-income debt<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>hidden liabilities<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Banks<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>sovereign exposure by country<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nonbanks<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>leverage and liquidity data<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Restructuring<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>timelines<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Disaster finance<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>buffers and cover<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy shock<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>duration and fiscal cost<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Holdings of sovereign debt by investor type outside advanced economies<\/td><td>BIS, national debt offices, IMF<\/td><td>the BIS chapter gives advanced-economy shares only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hidden and contingent public liabilities on a common basis<\/td><td>IMF, World Bank, national audit offices<\/td><td>no consolidated series; case reports differ in size<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Restructuring timelines under the Common Framework and outside it<\/td><td>Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>only the press pages were opened; the report PDFs were not read<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Full text of the ECB Financial Stability Review of May 2026<\/td><td>ECB<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>only the landing page was opened; its text gives no sovereign figures<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF Fiscal Monitor debt-at-risk and interest figures<\/td><td>IMF Fiscal Monitor April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the page and its summary give no such figures; the report PDF was not opened<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>OECD gross borrowing and refinancing figures for 2025 and 2026<\/td><td>OECD Global Debt Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the pages returned an access error; figures come from search summaries and are not used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CBO baseline deficit, debt and net interest<\/td><td>CBO Budget and Economic Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the pages returned an access error; figures come from search summaries and are not used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Insured and economic disaster losses for 2025<\/td><td>Swiss Re sigma 1\/2026 and Munich Re<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>both pages unavailable; reports of the totals differ and are not used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Interest costs by country on one comparable basis<\/td><td>national treasuries and debt offices<\/td><td>definitions of net interest differ by source<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk ratings of low-income countries from the IMF and World Bank list<\/td><td>IMF and World Bank <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 debt-sustainability\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The ability of a borrower to meet current and future debt obligations without exceptional financing or a major correction.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">debt sustainability<\/a> list<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the list returned no text; counts come from a search snippet and are not used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Japan general government debt ratio on one basis<\/td><td>Ministry of Finance Japan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>central and local, general government and net measures differ; no single figure chosen<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs beyond the published guidance<\/td><td>ministries, central banks, debt offices<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the International Monetary Fund. Semi-annual. Role: binds FIN-001. Coverage: global. The publication page was read; the report and its database were not opened.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR05-001<\/h3><p>IMF Fiscal Monitor, April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the Bank for International Settlements. Annual. Role: binds FIN-006. Coverage: advanced and emerging economies. The chapter page was read to character 100,000 of 120,069.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR05-002<\/h3><p>BIS Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR05-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR05-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>aggregate only; country tables not read<\/td><td>advanced-economy holder shares; emerging economies thin<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 3 months after year end<\/td><td>about 6 months after year end<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>projections revised each edition<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>projection method stated in the report<\/td><td>sources and charts cited in the chapter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>member country consultation<\/td><td>central bank review<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>IMF<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>: executive summary and database tables<\/li><li>BIS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>: the last 20,000 characters of the chapter and its annex<\/li><li>ECB<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>: sovereign sections of the full review<\/li><li>Roundtable<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>: report PDFs and compendium<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>BCBS<\/td><td>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIS<\/td><td>Bank for International Settlements<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ECB<\/td><td>European Central Bank<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FSB<\/td><td>Financial Stability Board<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GDP<\/td><td>gross domestic product<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GSDR<\/td><td>Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IDA<\/td><td>International Development Association<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>JGB<\/td><td>Japanese government bond<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LMIC<\/td><td>low- and middle-income countries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NBFI<\/td><td>nonbank financial intermediation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNCTAD<\/td><td>United Nations Conference on Trade and Development<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEO<\/td><td>World Economic Outlook<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-SR05-FIS-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Regional notes<\/td><td>regional fiscal cards<\/td><td>WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: net interest on public debt<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>interest paid by a government on its debt, net of interest received<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>USD billion a year; share of government revenue<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>as defined by the issuing agency<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>UNCTAD A World of Debt 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>definitions and country coverage differ between sources<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>does not record debt maturity or currency<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Global Debt Report 2026 (released 4 March 2026; record gross sovereign borrowing in the OECD area; refinancing needs; shorter maturities), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Budget Office (ed.), The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. CBO, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma 1\/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025 (insured losses of about USD 107 billion reported in summaries), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Munich Re (ed.), review of natural disasters in 2025 (January 2026; insured losses of about USD 108 billion reported by news outlets; one outlet gave a different overall total), taken from press reports; the Munich Re page returned an error and no figure is used. Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank (eds.), List of Low-Income Country <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 debt-sustainability\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The ability of a borrower to meet current and future debt obligations without exceptional financing or a major correction.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Debt Sustainability<\/a> Analyses (status as of 31 March 2026), taken from a search snippet; the list returned no text and no count is used. Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global public debt, share of GDP<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&lt;94<\/span><\/td><td>% of GDP<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global public debt, projected<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">100<\/span><\/td><td>% of GDP<\/td><td>2029<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global debt, public and private<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&gt;235<\/span><\/td><td>% of GDP<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global public debt<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">99.2<\/span><\/td><td>USD trillion<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global public debt<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 111<\/span><\/td><td>USD trillion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Net interest, developing countries<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 995<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Median net interest share of revenue<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">8.1<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LMIC net payments above new financing<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">741<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2022 to 2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LMIC external debt stock<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">8.9<\/span><\/td><td>USD trillion<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Euro area government debt<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">88.9<\/span><\/td><td>% of GDP<\/td><td>Q1 2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Euro area deficit, seasonally adjusted<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">3.1<\/span><\/td><td>% of GDP<\/td><td>Q1 2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nonbank share of advanced-economy sovereign holdings<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">53<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US federal debt outstanding<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">40.2<\/span><\/td><td>USD trillion<\/td><td>30 Sep 2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Japan FY2026 government bond plan<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">180.7<\/span><\/td><td>JPY trillion<\/td><td>FY2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Basel Committee members implementing or about to implement Basel III<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 75<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>9 Mar 2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0A%22Global%20public%20debt%2C%20share%20of%20GDP%22%2C%3C94%2C%25%20of%20GDP%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Global%20public%20debt%2C%20projected%22%2C100%2C%25%20of%20GDP%2C2029%2CESTIMATED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Global%20debt%2C%20public%20and%20private%22%2C%3E235%2C%25%20of%20GDP%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0AGlobal%20public%20debt%2C99.2%2CUSD%20trillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0AGlobal%20public%20debt%2C%E2%89%88%20111%2CUSD%20trillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0A%22Net%20interest%2C%20developing%20countries%22%2C%E2%89%88%20995%2CUSD%20billion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AMedian%20net%20interest%20share%20of%20revenue%2C8.1%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0ALMIC%20net%20payments%20above%20new%20financing%2C741%2CUSD%20billion%2C2022%20to%202024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0ALMIC%20external%20debt%20stock%2C8.9%2CUSD%20trillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0AEuro%20area%20government%20debt%2C88.9%2C%25%20of%20GDP%2CQ1%202026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0A%22Euro%20area%20deficit%2C%20seasonally%20adjusted%22%2C3.1%2C%25%20of%20GDP%2CQ1%202026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B8%5D%0ANonbank%20share%20of%20advanced-economy%20sovereign%20holdings%2C53%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B5%5D%0AUS%20federal%20debt%20outstanding%2C40.2%2CUSD%20trillion%2C30%20Sep%202026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B44%5D%0AJapan%20FY2026%20government%20bond%20plan%2C180.7%2CJPY%20trillion%2CFY2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B19%5D%0ABasel%20Committee%20members%20implementing%20or%20about%20to%20implement%20Basel%20III%2C%E2%89%88%2075%2C%25%2C9%20Mar%202026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B45%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Strategic%20Systems%20Report%202026%3A%20Sovereign%2C%20Fiscal%20and%20Financial%20Resilience%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20public%20debt%2C%20share%20of%20GDP%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3C94%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%20of%20GDP%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20public%20debt%2C%20projected%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22100%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%20of%20GDP%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222029%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ESTIMATED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20debt%2C%20public%20and%20private%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3E235%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%20of%20GDP%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20public%20debt%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2299.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20trillion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20public%20debt%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%20111%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20trillion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Net%20interest%2C%20developing%20countries%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%20995%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Median%20net%20interest%20share%20of%20revenue%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%228.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22LMIC%20net%20payments%20above%20new%20financing%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22741%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%20to%202024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22LMIC%20external%20debt%20stock%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%228.9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20trillion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Euro%20area%20government%20debt%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2288.9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%20of%20GDP%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Q1%202026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Euro%20area%20deficit%2C%20seasonally%20adjusted%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%223.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%20of%20GDP%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Q1%202026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Nonbank%20share%20of%20advanced-economy%20sovereign%20holdings%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2253%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B5%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22US%20federal%20debt%20outstanding%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2240.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20trillion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2230%20Sep%202026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B44%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Japan%20FY2026%20government%20bond%20plan%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22180.7%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22JPY%20trillion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22FY2026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B19%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Basel%20Committee%20members%20implementing%20or%20about%20to%20implement%20Basel%20III%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%2075%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%229%20Mar%202026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B45%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Values are rounded as published. The 2024 and 2025 global public debt stocks use different sources and methods and are not added. Values from sources that were not opened are not used in this table. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DEV<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">AIC<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>IMF Fiscal Monitor<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>multilateral<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>semi-annual<\/td><td>public debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNCTAD A World of Debt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>interest burden<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Bank International Debt Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>multilateral bank<\/td><td>LMICs<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>external debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIS Annual Economic Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>central bank forum<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>market structure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF Global Financial Stability Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>multilateral<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>semi-annual<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 market-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The risk of loss from movements in market prices, rates or volatility.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">market risk<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurostat debt release<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>statistical office<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>euro area debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Basel Committee<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>standard setter<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>bank rules<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US Treasury<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national treasury<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>daily<\/td><td>federal debt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ministry of Finance Japan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national treasury<\/td><td>Japan<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>issuance plan<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF Global Debt Database<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>multilateral<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>total debt<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td>high federal debt; rating action in 2025<\/td><td>public debt, bond markets<\/td><td>US Treasury<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup>; Moody\u2019s<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>external debt and rollover; commodity revenue<\/td><td>public debt, external debt<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>euro area debt and deficit; bank-sovereign links<\/td><td>public debt, banks<\/td><td>Eurostat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>; ECB<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>war and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.trade-restriction\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Export bans, sanctions or embargoes that cut access to goods, energy or inputs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">sanctions<\/a> effects on budgets<\/td><td>public debt<\/td><td>not bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td>hit hardest by the 2026 conflict in growth<\/td><td>public debt, energy<\/td><td>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>external debt service; hidden debt cases<\/td><td>external debt, spreads<\/td><td>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>; press reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>fastest-growing region; energy import bill<\/td><td>public debt, energy<\/td><td>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>very high public debt in Japan; large issuance plans<\/td><td>bond markets<\/td><td>Ministry of Finance Japan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>external debt and bond market access<\/td><td>public debt<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>small states with disaster exposure and thin buffers<\/td><td>disaster finance<\/td><td>not bound<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Regional card: Euro area public finances<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">region<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">euro area<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">public debt<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">bank-sovereign<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>public debt, banks, bond markets<\/dd><dt>Defining events<\/dt><dd>euro area debt of 88.9% of GDP in the first quarter of 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>FIN \u2192 FIN; ENE \u2192 FIN<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>published stability reviews and quarterly statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>bank holdings of sovereign debt by country; nonbank leverage<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>F-01 \u00b7 F-02<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Debt ratios run from 25.2% in Estonia to 143.5% in Greece in the first quarter of 2026 [7].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">DEBT<\/h3><p>Spread across members<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The seasonally adjusted euro area deficit was 3.1% of GDP, with France at 5.1% and Germany at 3.6% [8].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">DEFICIT<\/h3><p>A common deficit level<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The ECB describes euro area financial stability vulnerabilities as elevated while a geoeconomic shock unfolds [10].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">REVIEW<\/h3><p>Vulnerabilities elevated<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Regional cards are generated with the regional Baseline Editions. The euro area card is shown first because its quarterly statistics are published.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the fiscal and financial resilience edition through the public-finance chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Global Debt Remains Above 235 Percent of World GDP (blog on the 2025 Global Debt Database update, 17 September 2025; USD 251 trillion total; public debt nearly 93% of GDP or USD 99.2 trillion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 3.1% of GDP in the euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee\u2019s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Moody\u2019s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody\u2019s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-05-cb-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\">Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>14 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>45 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, April 2026 (publication page; global public debt just under 94% of GDP in 2025 and 100% by 2029; key messages; estimates use information to 1 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page; about USD 111 trillion of global public debt in 2025; about USD 35 trillion in developing countries; net interest about USD 995 billion; median 8.1% of revenue; 51 countries and 3.7 billion people). United Nations Conference on Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), International Debt Report 2025 (data blog of 3 December 2025; external debt USD 8.9 trillion in 2024; USD 741 billion net payments over 2022 to 2024). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter I: Progress and peril (chapter page; fiscal positions, energy shock, equity valuations). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026, Chapter II: High public debt and shifting financial markets, challenges for central banks (chapter page read to character 100,000 of 120,069). Bank for International Settlements, Basel, 28 June 2026. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Global Financial Stability Report, April 2026 (key messages page of 14 April 2026). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Government debt at 88.9% of GDP in euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026, provisional; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Seasonally adjusted government deficit at 3.1% of GDP in the euro area (euro indicators release of 21 July 2026; first quarter 2026). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Moody\u2019s Ratings (ed.), The US Sovereign Rating Action (page read: ratings lowered to Aa1 from Aaa, outlook stable, 16 May 2025; the page gives no reasons or figures). Moody\u2019s, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: ECB (ed.), Financial Stability Review, May 2026 (landing page of 27 May 2026; vulnerabilities elevated; next review 18 November 2026; the page gives no sovereign figures). European Central Bank, Frankfurt. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026 (page of 14 April 2026; growth 3.1% in 2026 and 3.2% in 2027; downside risks). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Global Economic Prospects, June 2026 (publication page; growth 2.5% in 2026; debt and sovereign spreads in developing economies). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 7th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 14 October 2026; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency (eds.), Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable, 6th Co-Chairs Progress Report (press page of 15 April 2026; updated restructuring playbook and liability management manual; the report PDF was not opened). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Global Debt Remains Above 235 Percent of World GDP (blog on the 2025 Global Debt Database update, 17 September 2025; USD 251 trillion total; public debt nearly 93% of GDP or USD 99.2 trillion). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Basel III implementation: media release of 5 October 2026 and RCAP implementation page (assessment date 30 September 2026; 27 members). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>FSB (ed.), Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2025 (topic page; report published 16 December 2025; the page gives no figures). Financial Stability Board, Basel. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service; record date 2 November 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.50 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.72 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Ministry of Finance Japan (ed.), JGB Investor Presentation, August 2026 (FY2026 government bond issuance JPY 180.7 trillion; refunding bonds JPY 135.8 trillion; interest payments JPY 13.07 trillion or 10.4% of general account expenditure). Ministry of Finance, Tokyo. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), America\u2019s Finance Guide: National Debt (page read; debt-to-GDP surpassed 100% in 2013; live figures blank in the text). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>BIS (ed.), Annual Economic Report 2026 (report page of 28 June 2026; chapter titles; fiscal-financial stability nexus). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>IMF (ed.), Questions and Answers on the Global Sovereign Debt Roundtable (page read; began February 2023; co-chairs IMF, World Bank and G20 Presidency; supports the Common Framework). International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Global Debt Report 2026 (released 4 March 2026; record gross sovereign borrowing in the OECD area; refinancing needs; shorter maturities), taken from search-result summaries; the report pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Congressional Budget Office (ed.), The Budget and Economic Outlook: 2026 to 2036 (February 2026), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. CBO, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Swiss Re Institute (ed.), sigma 1\/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025 (insured losses of about USD 107 billion reported in summaries), taken from search-result summaries; the pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Swiss Re, Zurich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Munich Re (ed.), review of natural disasters in 2025 (January 2026; insured losses of about USD 108 billion reported by news outlets; one outlet gave a different overall total), taken from press reports; the Munich Re page returned an error and no figure is used. Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank (eds.), List of Low-Income Country <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 debt-sustainability\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The ability of a borrower to meet current and future debt obligations without exceptional financing or a major correction.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Debt Sustainability<\/a> Analyses (status as of 31 March 2026), taken from a search snippet; the list returned no text and no count is used. Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fitch Ratings, France downgraded to A+ from AA-, September 2025, taken from press summaries. Fitch Ratings, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: S&amp;P Global Ratings, France downgraded to A+ from AA-, October 2025, taken from press summaries. S&amp;P Global Ratings, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: press reports on the undisclosed debt of Senegal and the staff-level agreement with the IMF of August and September 2026, taken from search-result summaries; estimates of the hidden amount differ and none is used. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Reinhart, C.M. and Rogoff, K.S., This Time Is Different: Eight Centuries of Financial Folly. Princeton University Press, Princeton, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Laeven, L. and Valencia, F., Systemic Banking Crises Revisited, IMF Working Paper WP\/18\/206, 2018, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Diamond, D.W. and Dybvig, P.H., Bank runs, deposit insurance, and liquidity, Journal of Political Economy 91(3), 401 to 419, 1983, cited from memory. Observation year 1983. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Blanchard, O., Public debt and low interest rates, American Economic Review 109(4), 1197 to 1229, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kaminsky, G.L. and Reinhart, C.M., The twin crises: the causes of banking and balance-of-payments problems, American Economic Review 89(3), 473 to 500, 1999, cited from memory. Observation year 1999. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Basel III: Finalising post-crisis reforms, December 2017, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF and World Bank, Debt Sustainability Framework for Low-Income Countries (reformed framework in use from 2018), cited from memory. Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: G20, Common Framework for Debt Treatments beyond the DSSI, 13 November 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Transparency Code, 2019, cited from memory. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Brunnermeier, M.K., Garicano, L., Lane, P.R., Pagano, M., Reis, R., Santos, T., Thesmar, D., Van Nieuwerburgh, S. and Vayanos, D., The sovereign-bank diabolic loop and ESBies, American Economic Review 106(5), 508 to 512, 2016, cited from memory. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gennaioli, N., Martin, A. and Rossi, S., Sovereign default, domestic banks, and financial institutions, Journal of Finance 69(2), 819 to 866, 2014, cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bank of England, Financial Stability Report, December 2022 (gilt market and liability-driven investment episode), cited from memory. Bank of England, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 5<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Basel Committee on Banking Supervision, Report on the 2023 banking turmoil, October 2023, cited from memory. Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>US Department of the Treasury, Bureau of the Fiscal Service (ed.), Debt to the Penny (data service queried for record date 30 September 2026; total public debt outstanding USD 40.17 trillion; debt held by the public USD 32.43 trillion). Fiscal Data, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (ed.), Governors and Heads of Supervision welcome progress to implement Basel III and discuss elements of the Basel Committee\u2019s work programme (press release of 9 March 2026; about 75% of member jurisdictions have now implemented, or will shortly implement, the standards; the release gives no count). Bank for International Settlements, Basel. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Strategic Systems Series SR-05<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 fiscal and financial resilience edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-05-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SR-05<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-05-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-STR-SR-05-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Sovereign%2C%20Fiscal%20and%20Financial%20Resilience\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Sovereign%2C%20Fiscal%20and%20Financial%20Resilience&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Sovereign%2C%20Fiscal%20and%20Financial%20Resilience\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Sovereign%2C%20Fiscal%20and%20Financial%20Resilience\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Sovereign%2C%20Fiscal%20and%20Financial%20Resilience\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Strategic Systems Report 2026: Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-05&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-05&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-05-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-05-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>SR-05 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-05 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Strategic Systems<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-05\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><p class=\"nx-note\" data-nr-rights=\"true\"><a class=\"nx-link\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.<\/p><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-05-full-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-05-full-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-05-full-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/model\/scenarios\/urban-flood\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Urban flood<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/risk-information-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Risk information standards and interoperability<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/data\/identification-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Identification (the UNI)<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script><style>@media print { @page { margin: 20mm 17mm 20mm 17mm; @top-left { content: \"Nexus Reports\"; font: 500 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @top-right { content: \"Strategic Systems Report 2026: Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience \\0000b7  Baseline Edition 2026\"; font: 400 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Sans\", sans-serif; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-left { content: \"NR-STRATEGIC-FISCAL-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE \\0000b7  Draft, not released\"; font: 400 7pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-center { content: \"CC BY 4.0. 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