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\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offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Strategic Systems Report 2026: Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SR-07<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Strategic Systems<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Food, water and energy fail together<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Ni\u00f1o<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Food, water and energy are one coupled system. Energy grows and moves food and fertiliser, water irrigates the fields that feed people, and pumping, treating and desalting water needs power. The 2025 and 2026 evidence shows the coupling at work. FAO estimates about 645 million people faced hunger in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>, and the Global Report on Food Crises counts about 266 million in acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> in 47 countries and territories<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. About 2.1 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water in 2024 and 655 million lacked electricity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>. Agriculture takes about 69 to 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>. In 2026 the Strait of Hormuz crisis reached food through three channels at once. FAO reports tanker traffic fell by more than 90 percent after the crisis, and urea prices were up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil by mid-April<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. The FAO Food Price Index stood at 133.3 in August 2026, 2.5 percent above a year earlier<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup>. World cereal stocks are not thin: FAO forecast 2026\/27 stocks at 947.2 million tonnes in early September<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup>. NOAA gave a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong El Ni\u00f1o in northern fall and winter 2026-27 on 10 September<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup>. This baseline reads these events as mechanisms, not as a list. It ranks no country, attributes no attack and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the food, water and energy baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes: conflict, route closures, climate states and price shocks hit all three.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Do food, water and energy stress have common causes?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Through fuel, fertiliser and import costs.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How does an energy shock reach food?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Not at the global level: FAO forecast 2026\/27 cereal stocks at 947.2 million tonnes.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is the grain buffer thin?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 69 to 72 percent of withdrawals.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How much water does farming take?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">2.1 billion lack safe drinking water; 655 million lack electricity.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Who lacks basic water and power?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Plants and fuel supply for water <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> were reported hit in 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Does war reach water systems?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Slowly at the global level; acute crises remain high.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is the hunger trend improving?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">An energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Ni\u00f1o. SCN-SR07-FWE-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">By mid-April 2026 urea prices were up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil, and an estimated 1.5 to 3 million tonnes of monthly fertiliser trade was delayed.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-fig1-t\">Urea price rise by mid-April 2026 (percent)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">United States<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"86.7\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">+52%<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Brazil<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">+60%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. Two markets only; the base month and price series are not given on the page.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">Fertiliser is bought before planting. FAO names squeezed farm margins and lower future yields as one of four channels, and tells countries to avoid export limits on energy and fertiliser in the next 90 days<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. Yield outcomes are not yet observed.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">645<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>facing hunger, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">266<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a>, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>no safely managed drinking water<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">655<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>no electricity, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">947.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million tonnes<\/span><p>cereal stocks, 2026\/27 forecast<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">133.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">points<\/span><p>FAO Food Price Index, Aug 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading food, water and energy as one coupled system.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people the problem arrives as a higher grocery bill, a dry tap or a power cut.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Price and import-bill stress is visible, and fertiliser and water plants are the exposed assets.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Food, water and energy are well described one series at a time and thinly measured as a system.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the 2026 state of the world\u2019s food, water and energy <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a food-security ranking, a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.famine\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Extreme food deprivation with widespread starvation, acute malnutrition and rising deaths in a population.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">famine<\/a> declaration, a price forecast or an assessment of any government, supplier or operator. Food, water and energy policy rests with governments and competent authorities.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 food, water and energy edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>&#8216;FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>&#8216;Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>&#8216;The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>&#8216;ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\\&#8217;s 10 September read: 75% chance El Ni\u00f1o exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The National (ed.), Iran\u2019s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children\u2019s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cs-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Food, water and energy fail together<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>10 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is food, water and energy risk concentrated?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry food, water and energy shocks into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which food, water and energy capabilities hold under compound stress?<\/li><li>What must 2027 evidence measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five mechanism chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Food, water and energy are usually reported by ministry: agriculture, water, energy. The 2025 and 2026 evidence reads them as one coupled system. Energy makes fertiliser and moves grain, water irrigates the fields, and power runs the pumps and the plants that clean or desalt water<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The causes repeat. A route closure in 2026 cut tanker traffic by more than 90 percent and lifted urea prices<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. Conflict is the major driver of acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. A very strong El Ni\u00f1o was rated likely for northern fall and winter 2026-27 on 10 September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup>. Fuel shortages threaten water <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in Yemen<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The base is uneven. About 2.1 billion people lack safely managed drinking water and 655 million lack electricity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>. About 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, and healthy diets are unaffordable for about 2.7 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The edition therefore asks the same four questions of every event: what was the common cause, how did it spread, what was shared, and what threshold was crossed. It makes no attribution and ranks no country.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-fig1-t\">How many people lack a basic service or food? Million people<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">The three counts are large and come from different indicators and years. They show scale only and are not added<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Without safely managed drinking water, 2024<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">2100<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Without electricity, 2024<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"31.2\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">655<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Facing hunger, 2025<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"30.7\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">645<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>without safely managed drinking water, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>without safely managed sanitation, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">655<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>without electricity, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">645<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>facing hunger, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The food, water and energy-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for their food, water and energy content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">cooling \u00b7 hydropower<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation \u00b7 processing<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">safe supply \u00b7 hygiene<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">flows<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 treatment \u00b7 desalination<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fertiliser \u00b7 machinery \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">clinics \u00b7 cooking fuel<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land use<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation withdrawals<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bioenergy<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">natural infrastructure<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydrology<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A route closure lifts fuel and fertiliser costs before planting.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2026 urea prices<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Fuel and power loss stop pumping and desalination.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> Yemen 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Import-dependent states face higher staple costs.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> FAO 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 FOO, WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A strong El Ni\u00f1o disturbs rainfall and river flow.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> NOAA 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FOO \u2192 WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Irrigation takes most freshwater withdrawals.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.4<\/span><span>Reinforcing loops<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Loop<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First direction<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Second direction<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to food: irrigation \u00b7 processing<\/td><td>Food to water: irrigation withdrawals<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"3\">A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>&#8216;The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children\u2019s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the food, water and energy baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">By mid-April 2026 urea prices were up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil, and an estimated 1.5 to 3 million tonnes of monthly fertiliser trade was delayed.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-fig1-t\">Urea price rise by mid-April 2026 (percent)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">United States<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"86.7\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">+52%<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Brazil<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">+60%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. Two markets only; the base month and price series are not given on the page.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Fertiliser is bought before planting. FAO names squeezed farm margins and lower future yields as one of four channels, and tells countries to avoid export limits on energy and fertiliser in the next 90 days<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. Yield outcomes are not yet observed.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Route reopening, fertiliser stocks, planting-season application rates and the yield outcome would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Food<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-001\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">FAO estimates that about 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, and that healthy diets are unaffordable for about 2.7 billion people.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The Global Report on Food Crises 2026 counts about 266 million people in high acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> in 2025 across 47 countries and territories, with conflict the major driver.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">By mid-April 2026 urea prices were up 52 percent in the United States and 60 percent in Brazil, and an estimated 1.5 to 3 million tonnes of monthly fertiliser trade was delayed.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">In early September 2026 FAO forecast world cereal output at about 2.98 billion tonnes, about 2 percent below the 2025 record, with end-of-season stocks of 947.2 million tonnes; the report opened gives no stocks-to-use ratio.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Water<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-003\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 2.1 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in 2024.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Agriculture takes about 69 percent of global freshwater withdrawals by one FAO page and 72 percent by another, and 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas with severe water constraints.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 655 million people lacked electricity in 2024, and 92 percent of the world\u2019s people had access.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Trade<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-006\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The Strait of Hormuz normally carries about 20 million barrels of oil a day, about a quarter of seaborne oil trade, and tanker traffic fell by more than 90 percent after the 2026 crisis.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August 2026, 2.5 percent above August 2025, with world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>CON<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-010\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CON-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Desalination supplies about 76 percent of municipal drinking water in the Gulf Cooperation Council states, and 90 to 99 percent in Bahrain, Kuwait and Qatar; plants were reported damaged from March 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Climate forcing<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">NOAA kept its El Ni\u00f1o Advisory on 10 September 2026 and gave a greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27, as reported by two secondary pages; the CPC text for that date was not opened.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.9<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is an energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Ni\u00f1o and high import dependence. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>&#8216;Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>&#8216;FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The National (ed.), Iran\u2019s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>&#8216;The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>&#8216;ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\\&#8217;s 10 September read: 75% chance El Ni\u00f1o exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c2-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FOO \u00b7 Hunger<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People facing hunger<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">645<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>FAO estimate for 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>FAO SOFI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FOO \u00b7 Food crises<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People in acute food insecurity<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">266<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>47 countries and territories.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>GRFC<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WAT \u00b7 Water<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People without safely managed drinking water<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>sanitation: 3.4 billion.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>UN SDG 6<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Energy access<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People without electricity<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">655<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>92 percent of people had access.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>Tracking SDG7<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">TRD \u00b7 Route shock<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Fall in tanker traffic after the crisis<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;90<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">percent<\/span><p>strait carries about a quarter of seaborne oil.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Prices<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">FAO Food Price Index<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">133.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">points<\/span><p>2.5 percent above August 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through food, water and energy, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries food, water and energy risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>About 2.1 billion people lack safely managed drinking water; Gulf states rely on desalination.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Energy route shock in 2026; 655 million people without electricity in 2024.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>About 645 million people faced hunger in 2025; 266 million in acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Unsafe water and food shape child nutrition and disease; not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT, FOO \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Wetlands and soils buffer water and yield; evidence not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO \u2192 WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>A very strong El Ni\u00f1o was rated likely for northern fall and winter 2026-27 on 10 September 2026.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 FOO, WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Pumping, treatment and desalination plants depend on power and fuel.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 INF \u2192 WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>FAO Food Price Index at 133.3 in August 2026, 2.5 percent above a year earlier.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2194 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Market monitoring of shipping and prices supports <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a>; no consolidated series here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>No consolidated link between digital load and water or food here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Fertiliser inputs are mined or made from gas; no consolidated series here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Tanker traffic through the strait fell by more than 90 percent; Black Sea shipping constrained.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2192 ENE, FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on food, water and energy, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>one route shock reaches fuel, fertiliser and food<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>energy and fertiliser route closure<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>2.1 billion lack safe drinking water<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>desalination and pumping loss<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>655 million without electricity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>route closure and price spike<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food and agrifood<\/td><td>645 million faced hunger<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>input shock and drought<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>water and food shape nutrition and disease<\/td><td>unsafe water in crises<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance and economy<\/td><td>FAO Food Price Index 133.3 in August 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>import bills and remittance loss<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>hunger concentrates in Africa and conflict settings<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>weak buffers<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>very strong El Ni\u00f1o likely in northern fall and winter 2026-27<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>drought and flood<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>one third of river basins normal in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 concurrent-hazards\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Two or more hazards affecting the same area or population at overlapping times, straining response capacity simultaneously.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">concurrent hazards<\/a><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>plants and fuel supply for water <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> hit<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>power loss at water plants<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>dense dependence on piped water and power<\/td><td>multi-service outage<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>wetlands and soils buffer water and yield<\/td><td>loss of buffers<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>crop and water monitoring support <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a><\/td><td>data gaps<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>market and shipping monitoring<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>disinformation on supply<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>water rights and conflict protections<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>implementation gaps<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>nexus science is established<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>data at operating scale<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>&#8216;FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>&#8216;The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2024 (page; one third of river basins with normal conditions; record glacier loss for a third year). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children\u2019s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, resolution 64\/292, The human right to water and sanitation, 28 July 2010, cited from memory; the document viewer returned navigation text only. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), articles 54 and 56, 1977, cited from memory; the ICRC page returned no text. Observation year 1977. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bazilian, M. et al., Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach, Energy Policy 39(12), 7896 to 7906, 2011, cited from memory; the publisher page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hoff, H., Understanding the Nexus: background paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference, The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011, cited from memory; the SEI page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c3-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>21 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR07-FOO-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Fertiliser shock before planting<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>route closure and price rise in urea<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>import-dependent farming <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>; Bangladesh sources 53 percent of fertiliser from the Gulf<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>thin farm margins; few alternative suppliers<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>priority shipments to low-income states; stocks<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>ENE \u2192 FOO \u2192 HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR07-WAT-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Desalination and power loss in arid coasts<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>strikes and fuel loss at co-located plants<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>Gulf states with 90 to 99 percent desalinated supply<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>power and water plants combined; few aquifers<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>storage; pipelines; priority supply<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>ENE \u2192 WAT \u2192 HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR07-CLI-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Strong El Ni\u00f1o on rain-fed and irrigated crops<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>very strong El Ni\u00f1o likely in northern fall and winter 2026-27<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>eastern and southern Africa food assistance needs<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>rain-fed farming; low stocks at household level<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a>; assistance; national reserves<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 FOO, WAT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>annual<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR07-FIN-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Price and import-bill stress<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>higher food and energy prices<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>low- and lower-middle-income importers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>currency and fiscal limits; lost remittances<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">social protection<\/a>; trade facilitation<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>FIN \u2192 FOO \u2192 HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>water and food standards widespread; implementation uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>global price, stock and crisis reporting<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>hunger hotspot and climate outlooks published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>FAO route and reserve coordination work reported<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>world cereal stocks forecast at 947.2 million tonnes; fertiliser stocks not consolidated<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.famine\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Extreme food deprivation with widespread starvation, acute malnutrition and rising deaths in a population.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">famine<\/a> responses and food assistance operate at scale<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>priority supply to water plants not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>recovery of damaged plants not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>land, soil and water guidance updated in 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>food assistance reaches millions; gaps in funding<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>protection gaps in sibling editions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>transboundary arrangements cover 43 of 153 sharing countries at 90 percent or more<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>ageing and exposed plants in places<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>skills for irrigation and plant operation not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>nexus science established<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The National (ed.), Iran\u2019s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children\u2019s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>&#8216;The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>&#8216;ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\\&#8217;s 10 September read: 75% chance El Ni\u00f1o exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a>; El Ni\u00f1o very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>&#8216;FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses, United Nations, 1997, cited from memory. Observation year 1997. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14046:2014, Environmental management: water footprint, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>&#8216;Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (page of 17 June 2026; 13 hotspots; highest concern Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Palestine). Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis (page; 266 million in crisis-level hunger or worse; 45 million at risk from the Middle East conflict; two famines confirmed in 2025 in Gaza and Sudan). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Newsroom items of 29 and 30 October 2026 (updated land, soil and water guidance for COP17; El Ni\u00f1o and Rift Valley fever alert). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Helsinki, 1992), UNECE, cited from memory. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bazilian, M. et al., Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach, Energy Policy 39(12), 7896 to 7906, 2011, cited from memory; the publisher page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hoff, H., Understanding the Nexus: background paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference, The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011, cited from memory; the SEI page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Energy and fertiliser route shock that overlaps a strong El Ni\u00f1o<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>2 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a prolonged closure of a major energy and fertiliser route in a planting season that coincides with a strong El Ni\u00f1o<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>the 2026 route closure; the El Ni\u00f1o outlook for 2026 and 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">tanker traffic collapses; fuel and gas prices rise<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">fertiliser prices rise and shipments are delayed before planting<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">El Ni\u00f1o disturbs rainfall in rain-fed regions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026 \u00b7 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">fuel and power shortages reduce pumping and desalination<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">import bills rise and remittances fall; staple costs rise<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FOO \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">hunger rises in conflict and import-dependent settings<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01 would travel through Food, Water and Energy Security&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Trade to energy<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Tanker traffic collapses; fuel and gas prices rise. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-07, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Energy to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Fertiliser prices rise and shipments are delayed before planting. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-07, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Climate to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">El Ni\u00f1o disturbs rainfall in rain-fed regions. Analogue or source: 2026 \u00b7 2027.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-07, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Energy to water<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Fuel and power shortages reduce pumping and desalination. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-07, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Finance to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Import bills rise and remittances fall; staple costs rise. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-07, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Food to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Hunger rises in conflict and import-dependent settings. Analogue or source: 2027.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-07, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026, scenario SCN-SR07-FWE-01<\/a> (2026); Food, Water and Energy Security 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>&#8216;The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c5-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The global baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>16 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>37 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading food, water and energy as one coupled system. Common causes recur across the three, shocks spread through fuel, fertiliser and trade, and thresholds such as stocks, plant capacity and famine conditions limit recovery. Evidence is strongest for single series and weakest for cross-system flows.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FOO-007 \u00b7 FOO-009 \u00b7 WAT-005 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people the problem arrives as a higher grocery bill, a dry tap or a power cut. The baseline asks that public debate treat food, water and energy as linked, and keep the people who face acute hunger in view.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FOO-001 \u00b7 FOO-002 \u00b7 WAT-003<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Price and import-bill stress is visible, and fertiliser and water plants are the exposed assets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-008 \u00b7 FOO-007<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Food, water and energy are well described one series at a time and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind fertiliser and water-energy flows, test the route shock and El Ni\u00f1o overlap, and map stock and plant thresholds before the next large shock.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 N-01 \u00b7 N-03<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for food, water and energy. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability exist?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests show?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What changed in the year, and what renews?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> strategic desks<\/td><td>food, water and energy chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness<\/td><td>strategic editorial board<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard is a decision of the competent standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Energy grows and moves food, water irrigates it, and power makes water usable. Treating each ministry alone understates how a fault in one becomes a fault in all. This edition reads the system.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>One system, three ministries<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">World cereal stocks are not thin, yet prices rose and acute crises persist. Global averages hide local shortages, and the buffer that counts is the one near the people at risk.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Buffers matter more than averages<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Drinking water, irrigation and desalination all need power and, in conflict, protection. Law protects the objects people need to survive, but reports of damage are still unverified.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Water is a security input<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The 2026 shock arrived first in fertiliser and food prices and in import bills. The yield and hunger outcomes follow later, and this edition does not forecast them.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Prices carry the shock<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 food, water and energy edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 food, water and energy readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 food, water and energy readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Nexus risk class: a risk whose hazard, consequences or causal chain crosses national borders and acts at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can assess or manage it alone.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/glossary\/global-risk\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Forum glossary\">Global risk<\/a> state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 6 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>national chapters in preparation<\/td><td>national chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments and published guidance that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>UN General Assembly resolution 64\/292 on the right to water and sanitation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2010<\/td><td>right to water<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Additional Protocol I, articles 54 and 56<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Geneva Conventions<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>objects indispensable to survival<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UN Watercourses Convention 1997<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>shared waters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Helsinki Water Convention 1992<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNECE<\/td><td>regional<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>transboundary waters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO 14046 water footprint<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>water footprint<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Right to Food Guidelines<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>food security policy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG 2 targets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2015<\/td><td>zero hunger<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG 6 targets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2015<\/td><td>water and sanitation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG 7 targets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2015<\/td><td>energy access<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FAO published SOFI 2026 with a hunger estimate of about 645 million for 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>FAO issued updated land, soil and water guidance in October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The World Bank published its October 2026 Commodity Markets Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Application of protections for objects indispensable to civilians to water plants<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Cooperation arrangements for shared waters, 43 of 153 countries at 90 percent or more<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Implementation of the right to water and sanitation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers food, water and energy assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the world\u2019s food, water and energy <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>FAO and UN agency reports; indicator databases; market monitors; peer-reviewed nexus and groundwater literature<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Bazilian et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2011<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>energy, water and food nexus<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hoff<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>conference report<\/td><td>2011<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>nexus approach<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jasechko et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>groundwater decline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPCC AR6 Working Group II<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment report<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>climate impacts on food<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zscheischler et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>compound events<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Buldyrev et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2010<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h61\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.cascade.infrastructure-cascade\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Cascading failure\" data-td=\"A failure in one infrastructure system that spreads through dependency links to power, water, transport, communications and health.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H61\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">cascading failure<\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional flagships<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SOFI 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO and partners<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>hunger and diet cost<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Report on Food Crises 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>GNAFC<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunger Hotspots, June to November 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO and WFP<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Water Development Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNESCO for UN-Water<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>water access<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Turning the Tide<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Global Commission on the Economics of Water<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>water demand gap<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Progress on household water, sanitation and hygiene<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WHO and UNICEF<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>access series<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Statistics, indicators and prices<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SDG 6 indicators<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>water and sanitation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG 7 indicators<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>energy access<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG 2 indicators<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>hunger indicators<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tracking SDG7<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank, WHO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>electricity access<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AQUASTAT water use<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>withdrawal shares<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO Food Price Index, August<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>prices<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, early September<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>trade press report<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>stocks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Commodity Markets Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>price outlook<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Agencies, operators and standards<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Gas Market Report, Q3 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>LNG route disruption<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water-energy nexus<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2016<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>water for energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Today in Energy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EIA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>refinery inputs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of the world\u2019s land and water resources<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>land and water<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agrifood systems emissions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>emissions share<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENSO diagnostic discussion, 10 September<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOAA, secondary reports<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gulf desalination reporting<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>press and think tanks<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>strikes on plants<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Food, water and energy are coupled through fuel, fertiliser and pumping<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Conflict is the major driver of acute food insecurity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Safe water and power access remain unequal<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How far the 2026 input shock will cut yields<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How much damage Gulf water plants sustained<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How large cross-system cascades are at operating scale<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>&#8216;FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, resolution 64\/292, The human right to water and sanitation, 28 July 2010, cited from memory; the document viewer returned navigation text only. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), articles 54 and 56, 1977, cited from memory; the ICRC page returned no text. Observation year 1977. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses, United Nations, 1997, cited from memory. Observation year 1997. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Helsinki, 1992), UNECE, cited from memory. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14046:2014, Environmental management: water footprint, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), Voluntary Guidelines to Support the Progressive Realization of the Right to Adequate Food in the Context of National Food Security, cited from memory. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 2 facts and figures (page; 8.2 percent undernourished and about 2.3 billion moderately or severely food insecure in 2024; 15.3 percent of countries with moderately to abnormally high food prices in 2024). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Newsroom items of 29 and 30 October 2026 (updated land, soil and water guidance for COP17; El Ni\u00f1o and Rift Valley fever alert). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bazilian, M. et al., Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach, Energy Policy 39(12), 7896 to 7906, 2011, cited from memory; the publisher page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hoff, H., Understanding the Nexus: background paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference, The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011, cited from memory; the SEI page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, chapter 5 on food, fibre and other ecosystem products, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buldyrev, S.V. et al., Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464, 1025 to 1028, 2010, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (page of 17 June 2026; 13 hotspots; highest concern Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Palestine). Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO for UN-Water (eds.), United Nations World Water Development Report 2026: Water for All People (women and girls spend about 250 million hours a day collecting water; about 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water), taken from search-result summaries; the UNESCO and UN-Water pages returned errors. UNESCO, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Commission on the Economics of Water, Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action (2023; projected 40 percent shortfall in freshwater supply by 2030 without action), taken from press summaries. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000 to 2024: special focus on inequalities (Joint Monitoring Programme, August 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the WHO page returned an error and the report exceeded the size limit. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>&#8216;Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q3 2026 (about 20 percent of global LNG supply normally passes the Strait of Hormuz; about 110 bcm in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of the World\u2019s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture (SOLAW 2021), cited from memory; the page returned an error; no figure used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> (FAOSTAT analytical brief), cited from memory; the page returned an error; no figure used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>&#8216;The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>&#8216;ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\\&#8217;s 10 September read: 75% chance El Ni\u00f1o exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The National (ed.), Iran\u2019s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 food, water and energy agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 food, water and energy edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>5 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">N-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a closure of a major energy and fertiliser route that overlaps a strong El Ni\u00f1o spread through planting, water pumping and staple prices at the same time?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR07-ROU-01 \u00b7 route shock and El Ni\u00f1o compound test; first output: dependency analysis for six regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">N-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which countries depend on one route or one supplier for fertiliser, fuel and staple imports?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR07-DEP-02 \u00b7 shared import dependence; first output: dependence register.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">N-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How much water does energy need, and how much energy does water need, on current data?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR07-WEN-03 \u00b7 water-energy flows; first output: flow table by region.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">N-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where do desalination, power and food imports coincide in one exposed place?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR07-DES-04 \u00b7 coastal and desalination exposure; first output: exposure map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">N-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where do groundwater decline and irrigated food production overlap?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR07-GRW-05 \u00b7 groundwater and irrigated food; first output: overlay.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">N-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which governments publish fertiliser stocks and trade on a comparable basis?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">N-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do conflict and sanction measures change protection priorities for water and food supply?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">N-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which food, water and energy capabilities have been tested in real shocks, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Nexus capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 food, water and energy portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR07-ROU-01<\/span><\/td><td>Route shock and El Ni\u00f1o compound test<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>N-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR07-DEP-02<\/span><\/td><td>Shared import dependence<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>N-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR07-WEN-03<\/span><\/td><td>Water-energy flows<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>N-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR07-DES-04<\/span><\/td><td>Coastal and desalination exposure<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>N-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR07-GRW-05<\/span><\/td><td>Groundwater and irrigated food<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>N-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-SR07-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Route shock and El Ni\u00f1o Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>N-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The food, water and energy edition reads national chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National food, water and energy chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">nexus reading in each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">IN PREPARATION \u00b7 national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Sector editions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">food, water, energy, health<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 sector Baseline Editions<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Food-water-energy model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the global system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> for food, water and energy<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">SR-01 \u00b7 SR-03 supply chains \u00b7 SR-02 lifeline systems<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Food, Water and Energy Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE DRAFT \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the food, water and energy candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the food, water and energy candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 food, water and energy annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-SR07-2027-01 \u00b7 Route shock and El Ni\u00f1o Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead: drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>FOO-001 \u00b7 hunger<\/td><td>sector editions<\/td><td>hunger and diet cost<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FOO-002 \u00b7 acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><td>INI-SR07-DEP-02<\/td><td>shared import dependence<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WAT-003 \u00b7 water access<\/td><td>INI-SR07-WEN-03<\/td><td>water-energy flows<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENE-004 \u00b7 energy access<\/td><td>INI-SR07-WEN-03<\/td><td>water-energy flows<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WAT-005 \u00b7 irrigation<\/td><td>INI-SR07-GRW-05<\/td><td>groundwater and irrigated food<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FOO-007 \u00b7 fertiliser shock<\/td><td>INI-SR07-ROU-01 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td>route shock and El Ni\u00f1o test<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CON-010 \u00b7 desalination<\/td><td>INI-SR07-DES-04<\/td><td>coastal and desalination exposure<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-SR07-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CODES ARE NOT JOINS<\/p><p>Series codes in this edition (SR-07 and its relatives) are Reports codes. Codes in other indices can look alike. This edition makes no join on a code alone: a join needs a registry record that names both subjects.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Food Price Index<\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>FIN-008<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cereal Supply and Demand Brief<\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>FOO-009<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Report on Food Crises<\/td><td>GNAFC<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>FOO-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENSO diagnostic discussion<\/td><td>NOAA<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>CLI-011<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Today in Energy<\/td><td>EIA<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><td>TRD-006<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG indicator database<\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>WAT-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunger Hotspots<\/td><td>FAO and WFP<\/td><td>twice a year<\/td><td>FOO-002<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-SR07-001<\/td><td>Tanker traffic and fertiliser prices after the 2026 route closure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>TRD \u00b7 FOO<\/td><td>risk object RSK-SR07-FOO-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR07-002<\/td><td>Very strong El Ni\u00f1o forecast for northern fall and winter 2026-27<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 FOO<\/td><td>research question N-01<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR07-003<\/td><td>Strikes on Gulf plants in 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>WAT \u00b7 ENE<\/td><td>research question N-04<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>&#8216;The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>&#8216;ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\\&#8217;s 10 September read: 75% chance El Ni\u00f1o exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The National (ed.), Iran\u2019s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c7-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>19 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Common causes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One cause can strike food, water and energy at once: a route closure, a conflict, a climate state or a price shock. The shared cause matters more than the sector.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">266<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>in acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a>, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;90<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">percent<\/span><p>fall in tanker traffic after the 2026 crisis<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;90<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">percent<\/span><p>chance of a very strong El Ni\u00f1o, northern fall and winter 2026-27<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Conflict<\/td><td>major driver of acute food insecurity; 45 million more people at risk from the Middle East conflict<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Route closure<\/td><td>tanker traffic fell by more than 90 percent<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate state<\/td><td>very strong El Ni\u00f1o likely in northern fall and winter 2026-27<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Price shock<\/td><td>FAO Food Price Index 2.5 percent above a year earlier, August 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>TRD \u2192 ENE \u2192 FOO route closure<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 FOO, WAT El Ni\u00f1o<\/li><li>CON \u2192 FOO conflict<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>common-cause tagging of shocks<\/li><li>frequency of concurrent causes<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Reopening of routes; ENSO updates; hunger hotspot reports; commodity price updates.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes causes recorded in public sources. It attributes no attack and assesses no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Domino effects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A failure in one system removes an input from the next. Energy costs reach fertiliser, fertiliser reaches harvests, and fuel shortages reach water plants.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">52<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">percent<\/span><p>urea price rise in the United States by mid-April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">60<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">percent<\/span><p>urea price rise in Brazil by mid-April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>tonnes a month of fertiliser trade delayed, upper end of the estimate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Energy to fertiliser<\/td><td>higher energy costs and route closure lift urea prices<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fuel to water<\/td><td>fuel shortages threaten water <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> serving about 3 million people in Yemen<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Import costs to hunger<\/td><td>import-dependent states face higher staple costs<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Power to desalination<\/td><td>co-located plants lose power and water when struck<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 FOO<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 WAT<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 FOO<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>sequence timing of shocks<\/li><li>yield response to input prices<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Planting-season fertiliser use; post-event reports on timing; priority supply arrangements.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes dependency sequences. It assesses no supplier and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Inter-systemic feedbacks<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Food, water and energy also act back on each other. Farming takes most freshwater, water needs power, and high prices change what countries do with trade.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">69<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">to 72 percent<\/span><p>of freshwater withdrawals for agriculture<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>people in agricultural areas with severe water constraints<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">22<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">percent<\/span><p>of 150 countries with real food prices above headline inflation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Farming to water<\/td><td>irrigation takes most withdrawals<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water to energy<\/td><td>cooling and hydropower tie energy to water<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prices to trade policy<\/td><td>FAO urges countries to avoid export limits on energy and fertiliser<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Refining to supply<\/td><td>refinery inputs fell 6 percent in the second quarter of 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FOO \u2192 WAT<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 ENE<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 TRD<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>water-energy flows, current<\/li><li>export restriction tracking<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Export policies; refinery runs; water allocation decisions in dry seasons.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes feedback loops. It assesses no government or company.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Shared vulnerabilities<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Different <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> share the same weak points: one route, one supplier, one coastal plant, or one over-drawn aquifer.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">53<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">percent<\/span><p>of Bangladesh fertiliser sourced from the Gulf<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">70<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">to 90 percent<\/span><p>of staple food imported by Gulf countries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">76<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">percent<\/span><p>of GCC municipal water from desalination, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>One route<\/td><td>about a quarter of seaborne oil trade passes one strait<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>One supplier<\/td><td>Bangladesh sources 53 percent of fertiliser from the Gulf<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coastal plants<\/td><td>desalination and power are co-located and exposed<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Aquifers<\/td><td>groundwater decline in food-producing regions; not consolidated here<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>TRD \u2192 ENE, FOO<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 WAT<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 FOO<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>storage days of supply<\/li><li>groundwater on one scale<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Alternative corridors; storage investment; plant repair; supplier diversification.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes shared weak points in public sources. It discloses no vulnerability and assesses no operator.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Thresholds and tipping<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Stocks, plant capacity and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.famine\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Extreme food deprivation with widespread starvation, acute malnutrition and rising deaths in a population.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">famine<\/a> conditions are such thresholds for food, water and energy.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">947.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million tonnes<\/span><p>world cereal stocks forecast, 2026\/27<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">43<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">of 153<\/span><p>countries sharing waters with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">famines<\/span><p>confirmed in 2025, in Gaza and Sudan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Grain stocks<\/td><td>world cereal stocks forecast at 947.2 million tonnes, 2026\/27<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Famine conditions<\/td><td>two famines confirmed in 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water cooperation<\/td><td>only 43 of 153 sharing countries have arrangements at 90 percent or more<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Compound shocks<\/td><td>cascades can become abrupt when shocks overlap<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FOO \u2192 HLT famine<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 FOO shared waters<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 WAT plant capacity<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>local stock thresholds<\/li><li>cascade thresholds at operating scale<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Stocks-to-use updates; famine classifications; water cooperation arrangements.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-01 Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes thresholds in public sources. It is not a prediction and assesses no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>&#8216;The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>&#8216;ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\\&#8217;s 10 September read: 75% chance El Ni\u00f1o exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis (page; 266 million in crisis-level hunger or worse; 45 million at risk from the Middle East conflict; two famines confirmed in 2025 in Gaza and Sudan). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>&#8216;FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children\u2019s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute food insecurity; El Ni\u00f1o very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The National (ed.), Iran\u2019s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>&#8216;Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buldyrev, S.V. et al., Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464, 1025 to 1028, 2010, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-c8-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>13 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Gap between the two FAO withdrawal shares for agriculture<\/td><td>72 \u2212 69<\/td><td>3 percentage points<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Share of people with access to electricity<\/td><td>100 \u2212 8<\/td><td>92 percent as published<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Hunger count relative to acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><td>645 \u00f7 266<\/td><td>\u2248 2.4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Urea rise gap between Brazil and the United States<\/td><td>60 \u2212 52<\/td><td>8 percentage points<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Food-Water-Energy Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-SR07-FWE \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent food, water and energy as a coupled system and the mechanisms by which stress spreads between fuel, fertiliser, irrigation, drinking water and staple food<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining how food, water and energy stress spread.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>49 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 food, water and energy annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Food-Water-Energy Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Hunger estimate<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jul 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>SOFI 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Apr 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>GRFC 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Route shock statement<\/td><td>to Apr 2026<\/td><td>28 Apr 2026<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>FAO updates<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food Price Index<\/td><td>Aug 2026<\/td><td>4 Sep 2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>next monthly release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cereal brief<\/td><td>2026\/27<\/td><td>Sep 2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>next monthly release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity access<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Jun 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Tracking SDG7 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water access<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next SDG update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>El Ni\u00f1o outlook<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>8 Oct 2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>12 Nov 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Price outlook<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>twice a year<\/td><td>Apr 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gulf plant damage<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Mar to Apr 2026<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>not verified<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>trend on a common basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>groundwater on one scale<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>clean cooking, current count<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fertiliser<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>stocks and trade<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trade routes<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>flows by commodity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate state<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>yield outcomes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Conflict and water<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>verified plant damage<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance of resilience<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>import-bill estimates<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Fertiliser trade volumes and stocks, current, on a common basis<\/td><td>FAO, IFA and national statistics<\/td><td>not retrieved; the FAO statement gives a delayed range only<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Base month and price series behind the urea price rises<\/td><td>FAO and market reporters<\/td><td>the FAO statement gives percentages only; two markets are named<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook fertiliser forecast for 2026<\/td><td>World Bank, October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the page opened gives no fertiliser figure and search summaries disagree (14 percent and about 31 percent)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SOFI 2026 prevalence and 2030 projection<\/td><td>FAO SOFI 2026 full report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>only the landing page was opened; the prevalence and projection come from search summaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision of the 2024 hunger estimate between SOFI editions<\/td><td>FAO SOFI 2025 and 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the UN SDG page gives 8.2 percent for 2024; a search summary of SOFI 2026 gives 8.1 percent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GRFC 2026 share of analysed population in 2024<\/td><td>GRFC 2026 report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the page opened gives 22.3 percent; search summaries give 22.7 percent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Verified damage to Gulf power and desalination plants<\/td><td>national authorities and independent assessments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>press and think-tank reports only; strikes are disputed between parties<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Desalination share of drinking water for the UAE<\/td><td>national statistics and DesalData<\/td><td>the think-tank page gives 42 percent while other reports give about 90 percent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Clean cooking count for 2024<\/td><td>Tracking SDG7 2026 report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the UN page gives 75 percent access but no count; the report PDF returned an access error<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.groundwater-depletion\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Aquifers drawn down faster than they refill, lowering wells and driving land subsidence and saltwater intrusion.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Groundwater depletion<\/a> on one scale across food-producing regions<\/td><td>peer-reviewed series<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the paper was not opened<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water used for energy and energy used for water, current values<\/td><td>IEA and national statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the IEA page returned an access error<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Crop yield outcomes of the 2026 input shock and El Ni\u00f1o<\/td><td>FAO, USDA and national agencies<\/td><td>not yet observed; the USDA WASDE page gave no figures<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the FAO Director-General on 28 April 2026. One-off. Role: binds FOO-007 and TRD-006. Coverage: global. The page was read in full; it gives percentages and ranges only.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR07-001<\/h3><p>FAO statement on the Strait of Hormuz crisis<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the Global Network Against Food Crises. Annual. Role: binds FOO-002. Coverage: 47 countries and territories. The landing page was read; the full report was not opened.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR07-002<\/h3><p>Global Report on Food Crises 2026 landing page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR07-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR07-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>two markets and a delay range<\/td><td>countries with analysed data only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 2 weeks after mid-April<\/td><td>about 4 months after the year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>no revision noted<\/td><td>year-on-year share differs across summaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>base month not stated<\/td><td>IPC and CH classification<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>not assessed<\/td><td>multi-agency review<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>: price series behind the urea figures<\/li><li>GRFC<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>: country tables and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.famine\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Extreme food deprivation with widespread starvation, acute malnutrition and rising deaths in a population.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">famine<\/a> classifications<\/li><li>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup>: fertiliser forecast table<\/li><li>UN SDG<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>: clean cooking count for 2024<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>AQUASTAT<\/td><td>FAO global information system on water and agriculture<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENSO<\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o Southern Oscillation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO<\/td><td>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GCC<\/td><td>Gulf Cooperation Council<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GRFC<\/td><td>Global Report on Food Crises<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPC<\/td><td>Integrated Food Security Phase Classification<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LNG<\/td><td>liquefied natural gas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG<\/td><td>Sustainable Development Goal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SOFI<\/td><td>The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WFP<\/td><td>World Food Programme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WMO<\/td><td>World Meteorological Organization<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NOAA<\/td><td>US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-SR07-FWE-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Regional notes<\/td><td>regional food, water and energy cards<\/td><td>WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: stocks-to-use ratio<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>world cereal ending stocks as a share of annual utilisation<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>percent<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>supply and demand balance compiled by FAO<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>, post-close, context only<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>revised monthly; regional distribution of stocks differs<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>a global ratio does not show stocks near people at risk<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, fertiliser forecast (search summaries give a rise of 14 percent in 2026 and, in two Ghana outlets, about 31 percent), taken from search-result summaries; the page opened gives no fertiliser figure. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), SOFI 2026 headline statistics (prevalence of hunger 7.8 percent in 2025, 8.1 percent in 2024; 2.1 billion moderately or severely food insecure; 510 to 520 million facing hunger in 2030), taken from search-result summaries; the full report was not opened. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 2 facts and figures (page; 8.2 percent undernourished and about 2.3 billion moderately or severely food insecure in 2024; 15.3 percent of countries with moderately to abnormally high food prices in 2024). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The National (ed.), Iran\u2019s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (release of 2 October 2026; 2026 production 2,979 million tonnes; stocks 950.0 million tonnes; stocks-to-use 31.7 percent). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>11 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>20 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>People facing hunger<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">645<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People unable to afford a healthy diet<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.7<\/span><\/td><td>billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People in acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">266<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Countries and territories in the GRFC<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">47<\/span><\/td><td>count<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People without safely managed drinking water<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.1<\/span><\/td><td>billion<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People without safely managed sanitation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">3.4<\/span><\/td><td>billion<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People without electricity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">655<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agriculture share of withdrawals<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">69 to 72<\/span><\/td><td>percent<\/td><td>not stated<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fall in tanker traffic after the crisis<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&gt;90<\/span><\/td><td>percent<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Urea price rise, United States<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">52<\/span><\/td><td>percent<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Urea price rise, Brazil<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">60<\/span><\/td><td>percent<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO Food Price Index, August<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">133.3<\/span><\/td><td>points<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World cereal stocks, 2026\/27 forecast<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">947.2<\/span><\/td><td>million tonnes<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GCC desalination share of municipal water<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">76<\/span><\/td><td>percent<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chance of a very strong El Ni\u00f1o, northern fall and winter 2026-27<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&gt;90<\/span><\/td><td>percent<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0APeople%20facing%20hunger%2C645%2Cmillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0APeople%20unable%20to%20afford%20a%20healthy%20diet%2C2.7%2Cbillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0APeople%20in%20acute%20food%20insecurity%2C266%2Cmillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0ACountries%20and%20territories%20in%20the%20GRFC%2C47%2Ccount%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0APeople%20without%20safely%20managed%20drinking%20water%2C2.1%2Cbillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B13%5D%0APeople%20without%20safely%20managed%20sanitation%2C3.4%2Cbillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B13%5D%0APeople%20without%20electricity%2C655%2Cmillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B11%5D%0AAgriculture%20share%20of%20withdrawals%2C69%20to%2072%2Cpercent%2Cnot%20stated%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%20%5B16%5D%0AFall%20in%20tanker%20traffic%20after%20the%20crisis%2C%3E90%2Cpercent%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B5%5D%0A%22Urea%20price%20rise%2C%20United%20States%22%2C52%2Cpercent%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B5%5D%0A%22Urea%20price%20rise%2C%20Brazil%22%2C60%2Cpercent%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B5%5D%0A%22FAO%20Food%20Price%20Index%2C%20August%22%2C133.3%2Cpoints%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B46%5D%0A%22World%20cereal%20stocks%2C%202026%2F27%20forecast%22%2C947.2%2Cmillion%20tonnes%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B47%5D%0AGCC%20desalination%20share%20of%20municipal%20water%2C76%2Cpercent%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B22%5D%0A%22Chance%20of%20a%20very%20strong%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%2C%20northern%20fall%20and%20winter%202026-27%22%2C%3E90%2Cpercent%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B48%5D%20%5B49%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Strategic%20Systems%20Report%202026%3A%20Food%E2%80%93Water%E2%80%93Energy%20Security%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20facing%20hunger%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22645%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20unable%20to%20afford%20a%20healthy%20diet%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222.7%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20in%20acute%20food%20insecurity%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22266%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Countries%20and%20territories%20in%20the%20GRFC%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2247%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22count%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20without%20safely%20managed%20drinking%20water%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B13%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20without%20safely%20managed%20sanitation%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%223.4%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B13%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20without%20electricity%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22655%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B11%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Agriculture%20share%20of%20withdrawals%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2269%20to%2072%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22percent%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22not%20stated%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%20%5B16%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Fall%20in%20tanker%20traffic%20after%20the%20crisis%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3E90%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22percent%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B5%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Urea%20price%20rise%2C%20United%20States%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2252%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22percent%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B5%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Urea%20price%20rise%2C%20Brazil%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2260%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22percent%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B5%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22FAO%20Food%20Price%20Index%2C%20August%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22133.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22points%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B46%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22World%20cereal%20stocks%2C%202026%2F27%20forecast%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22947.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20tonnes%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B47%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22GCC%20desalination%20share%20of%20municipal%20water%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2276%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22percent%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B22%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Chance%20of%20a%20very%20strong%20El%20Ni%C3%B1o%2C%20northern%20fall%20and%20winter%202026-27%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3E90%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22percent%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B48%5D%20%5B49%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Values are rounded as published. Counts for different deprivations and years are not added. Search-summary values carry an UNVERIFIED reference and are listed in the notes. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CON<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>FAO SOFI 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>hunger<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GRFC 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>multi-agency network<\/td><td>47 countries and territories<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO Hormuz statement<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>route shock<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO Food Price Index, August<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>prices<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO cereal brief, September<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>trade press<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>stocks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tracking SDG7<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>multi-agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>electricity access<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UN SDG 6<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN statistics<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>water access<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO AQUASTAT<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>not stated<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>water use<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NOAA ENSO discussion, 10 September<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>secondary reports<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>climate state<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Arab Center analysis<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>think tank<\/td><td>Gulf<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>desalination share<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td>fertiliser prices; hurricane-season energy exposure<\/td><td>fuel, fertiliser, grain<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>; EIA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>fertiliser import costs; El Ni\u00f1o drought and flood<\/td><td>fertiliser, rain-fed crops<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>; NOAA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>gas prices and energy costs<\/td><td>energy, fertiliser<\/td><td>World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>; IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>Black Sea shipping constraints<\/td><td>grain trade<\/td><td>trade press<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td>desalination reliance; strikes on plants; import dependence of 70 to 90 percent for staples<\/td><td>water, power, food imports<\/td><td>Arab Center<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup>; FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>largest number of people facing hunger; El Ni\u00f1o food assistance needs<\/td><td>food, rain-fed farming<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>fertiliser imports from the Gulf; remittance loss<\/td><td>fertiliser, remittances<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>energy import exposure; rice trade<\/td><td>energy, rice<\/td><td>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup>; FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>, post-close, context only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>rice trade and El Ni\u00f1o exposure<\/td><td>rice, water<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>, post-close, context only; NOAA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o rainfall changes; island water supply<\/td><td>water, rain-fed crops<\/td><td>WMO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup>; WMO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Regional card: Gulf coast water and power<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">region<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">desalination<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">power<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">food imports<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>desalination, power, staple imports<\/dd><dt>Defining events<\/dt><dd>strikes and damage reports at Gulf plants from March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>ENE \u2192 WAT; TRD \u2192 FOO<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>FAO route and reserve coordination work<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>verified plant damage; storage days of supply<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>N-01 \u00b7 N-04<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Desalination supplies about 76 percent of municipal drinking water across the Gulf Cooperation Council states [22].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">WATER<\/h3><p>Reliance on desalination<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Gulf states import 70 to 90 percent of their staple food, and FAO is coordinating reserves with them [5].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">FOOD<\/h3><p>Import dependence<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Responsibility for plant strikes is disputed between the parties and is not assessed here [21] [22].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">LEARNING<\/h3><p>Disputed reports<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Regional cards are generated with the regional Baseline Editions. The Gulf coast card is shown first because the 2026 reports bear directly on the three <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the food, water and energy edition through the chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>&#8216;FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>&#8216;Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>&#8216;The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>&#8216;ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\\&#8217;s 10 September read: 75% chance El Ni\u00f1o exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217;<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q3 2026 (about 20 percent of global LNG supply normally passes the Strait of Hormuz; about 110 bcm in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute food insecurity; El Ni\u00f1o very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (release of 2 October 2026; 2026 production 2,979 million tonnes; stocks 950.0 million tonnes; stocks-to-use 31.7 percent). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: WMO (ed.), Media centre releases on El Ni\u00f1o, 3 July to 8 October 2026 (titles only, including El Ni\u00f1o set to become very strong, 3 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2024 (page; one third of river basins with normal conditions; record glacier loss for a third year). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The National (ed.), Iran\u2019s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-07-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\">Food, Water and Energy Security 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>16 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>49 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (landing page; about 645 million people facing hunger in 2025; healthy diets unaffordable for about 2.7 billion). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (landing page via the European Commission knowledge service; about 266 million people in high acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> in 47 countries and territories; available from 23 April 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>WFP (ed.), Global hunger crisis (page; 266 million in crisis-level hunger or worse; 45 million at risk from the Middle East conflict; two famines confirmed in 2025 in Gaza and Sudan). World Food Programme, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (page of 17 June 2026; 13 hotspots; highest concern Sudan, South Sudan, Yemen and Palestine). Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Strait of Hormuz crisis: FAO Director-General outlines risks, actions and policy responses (statement of 28 April 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index (September 2026 release; 136.0 points; sub-indices). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief (release of 2 October 2026; 2026 production 2,979 million tonnes; stocks 950.0 million tonnes; stocks-to-use 31.7 percent). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026 (landing page; commodity prices projected up 23 percent in 2026; energy prices at a four-year high; next update April 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 edition (real food prices above headline inflation in about 22 percent of 150 countries, up from 14 percent; Yemen more than 18 million in acute food insecurity; El Ni\u00f1o very strong through early 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), The Commodity Markets Outlook in eight charts (October 2025 edition; fertiliser price index 28 percent above a year earlier in the third quarter of 2025; projected to ease in 2026 and 2027). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>IEA, IRENA, UNSD, World Bank and WHO (eds.), Tracking SDG7: The Energy Progress Report 2026 (publication page via Sustainable Energy for All; 655 million people without electricity). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 7 facts and figures (page; electricity access 92 percent in 2024; clean cooking access 75 percent in 2024; about 2.1 billion without clean cooking in 2023; renewables 18 percent of final energy in 2023). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 6 facts and figures (page; 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water and 3.4 billion without safely managed sanitation in 2024; 153 countries share transboundary waters, 43 with cooperation arrangements at 90 percent or more). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 2 facts and figures (page; 8.2 percent undernourished and about 2.3 billion moderately or severely food insecure in 2024; 15.3 percent of countries with moderately to abnormally high food prices in 2024). United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), AQUASTAT: water use (page; agriculture 69 percent, municipal 12 percent, industrial 19 percent of global withdrawals; reference year not stated on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year not stated. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Land and water: water management (page; agriculture uses 72 percent of global freshwater withdrawals; 1.2 billion people live in agricultural areas facing severe water constraints). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2024 (page; one third of river basins with normal conditions; record glacier loss for a third year). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: NOAA Climate Prediction Center (ed.), ENSO Diagnostic Discussion, 8 October 2026 (El Ni\u00f1o advisory; strong to very strong El Ni\u00f1o likely through January to March 2027; chance above 83 percent). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, College Park. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: WMO (ed.), Media centre releases on El Ni\u00f1o, 3 July to 8 October 2026 (titles only, including El Ni\u00f1o set to become very strong, 3 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: EIA (ed.), Today in Energy (items to 3 November 2026; crude refinery inputs down 4.8 million barrels a day, or 6 percent, in the second quarter of 2026). US Energy Information Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The National (ed.), Iran\u2019s strike brings Gulf water security into focus (press report of 8 March 2026, updated 9 March; Bahrain plant damaged; Middle East holds about 41.8 percent of global desalination capacity). Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Shehabi, M., War on Iran: the dangers of attacking water desalination plants in the Gulf (analysis of 28 April 2026; desalination about 76 percent of GCC municipal drinking water in 2023). Arab Center Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: UNICEF (ed.), Press release: water for over 1.6 million children in Taiz at risk as fighting intensifies in Yemen (20 October 2026; fuel shortages threaten water <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> serving an estimated three million people). United Nations Children\u2019s Fund, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Newsroom items of 29 and 30 October 2026 (updated land, soil and water guidance for COP17; El Ni\u00f1o and Rift Valley fever alert). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q3 2026 (about 20 percent of global LNG supply normally passes the Strait of Hormuz; about 110 bcm in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA page returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNESCO for UN-Water (eds.), United Nations World Water Development Report 2026: Water for All People (women and girls spend about 250 million hours a day collecting water; about 2.1 billion without safely managed drinking water), taken from search-result summaries; the UNESCO and UN-Water pages returned errors. UNESCO, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on household drinking water, sanitation and hygiene 2000 to 2024: special focus on inequalities (Joint Monitoring Programme, August 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the WHO page returned an error and the report exceeded the size limit. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Global Commission on the Economics of Water, Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action (2023; projected 40 percent shortfall in freshwater supply by 2030 without action), taken from press summaries. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Water-Energy Nexus (World Energy Outlook excerpt), cited from memory; the IEA page returned an access error; no figure used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), The State of the World\u2019s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture (SOLAW 2021), cited from memory; the page returned an error; no figure used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems (FAOSTAT analytical brief), cited from memory; the page returned an error; no figure used. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, chapter 5 on food, fibre and other ecosystem products, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bazilian, M. et al., Considering the energy, water and food nexus: towards an integrated modelling approach, Energy Policy 39(12), 7896 to 7906, 2011, cited from memory; the publisher page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hoff, H., Understanding the Nexus: background paper for the Bonn 2011 Conference, The Water, Energy and Food Security Nexus. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm, 2011, cited from memory; the SEI page returned an access error. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Jasechko, S. et al., Rapid groundwater decline and some cases of recovery in aquifers globally, Nature 625, 715 to 721, 2024, cited from memory; the page redirected to an access gateway; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly, resolution 64\/292, The human right to water and sanitation, 28 July 2010, cited from memory; the document viewer returned navigation text only. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Protocol Additional to the Geneva Conventions of 12 August 1949 relating to the Protection of Victims of International Armed Conflicts (Protocol I), articles 54 and 56, 1977, cited from memory; the ICRC page returned no text. Observation year 1977. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Law of the Non-navigational Uses of International Watercourses, United Nations, 1997, cited from memory. Observation year 1997. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on the Protection and Use of Transboundary Watercourses and International Lakes (Helsinki, 1992), UNECE, cited from memory. Observation year 1992. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, fertiliser forecast (search summaries give a rise of 14 percent in 2026 and, in two Ghana outlets, about 31 percent), taken from search-result summaries; the page opened gives no fertiliser figure. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), SOFI 2026 headline statistics (prevalence of hunger 7.8 percent in 2025, 8.1 percent in 2024; 2.1 billion moderately or severely food insecure; 510 to 520 million facing hunger in 2030), taken from search-result summaries; the full report was not opened. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 14046:2014, Environmental management: water footprint, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO (ed.), Voluntary Guidelines to Support the Progressive Realization of the Right to Adequate Food in the Context of National Food Security, cited from memory. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Buldyrev, S.V. et al., Catastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks, Nature 464, 1025 to 1028, 2010, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>&#8216;FAO (ed.), Supply concerns drive FAO Food Price Index higher (newsroom release of 4 September 2026; August 2026 index 133.3 points, up 2.5 percent on a year earlier; world wheat prices 15.0 percent above a year earlier; no cereal sub-index value on the page). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217; <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>&#8216;Miller Magazine (ed.), Global cereal output set for biggest decline since 2018 amid persistent Black Sea risks (trade press report of 8 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of early September; 2026 output about 2.98 billion tonnes, 2 percent below the 2025 record; stocks 947.2 million tonnes; no stocks-to-use ratio on the page; the FAO brief for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217; <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>&#8216;The Watchers (ed.), NOAA raises chance of historic-strength El Ni\u00f1o to 75% for October-December 2026 (report of 11 September 2026 on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217; <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-ref-49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>&#8216;ElNino.news (ed.), CPC\\&#8217;s 10 September read: 75% chance El Ni\u00f1o exceeds every event since 1950 (report on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center ENSO Diagnostic Discussion of 10 September 2026; El Ni\u00f1o Advisory kept; greater than 90 percent chance of a very strong event in northern fall and winter 2026-27; secondary report, the CPC text for that date was not opened). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.&#8217; <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Strategic Systems Series SR-07<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 food, water and energy edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-07-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SR-07<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-07-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-STR-SR-07-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Food, Water and Energy Security; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Food%2C%20Water%20and%20Energy%20Security\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Food%2C%20Water%20and%20Energy%20Security&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Food%2C%20Water%20and%20Energy%20Security\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Food%2C%20Water%20and%20Energy%20Security\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Food%2C%20Water%20and%20Energy%20Security\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Food, Water and Energy Security, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Food, Water and Energy Security for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Strategic Systems Report 2026: Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Food, Water and Energy Security&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-07&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Food, Water and Energy Security&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-07&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-07-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-07-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>SR-07 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Food, Water and Energy Security 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-07 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Food, Water and Energy Security.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Strategic Systems<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-07\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><p class=\"nx-note\" data-nr-rights=\"true\"><a class=\"nx-link\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.<\/p><section id=\"nx-sec-signature\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"climate\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-sec-signature-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Sector signature<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-sec-signature-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">The sectors behind Food, Water and Energy Security.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-canvas-wrap\"><figure class=\"nx-nsig\" data-nx-sig=\"WEIF\" data-sig-name=\"Water, Energy and Food\" data-sig-line=\"Water gives energy cooling water and hydropower (0.6); water gives food irrigation (0.8): the strongest relations between the sectors this subject joins.\" data-sig-inst=\"Reports\"><div class=\"nx-nsig-plate\"><div class=\"nx-nsig-strip\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Signatures in context\" hidden><\/div><div class=\"nx-nsig-stage\"><div class=\"nx-nsig-top\"><span>Select corners \u00b7 hover lines<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-pairs\">6 \/ 15 relations<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-nsig-tilt\"><svg class=\"nx-nsig-svg\" viewBox=\"-370 -290 740 580\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Sector signature hexagon: Water, Energy, Infrastructure and Food selected, 6 of 15 relations in play, coupling 0.46. Teaching values.\" focusable=\"false\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-nsig-read\"><div><p class=\"nx-nsig-k\">Signature<\/p><p class=\"nx-nsig-name\">Water, Energy and Food<\/p><p class=\"nx-nsig-line\">Water gives energy cooling water and hydropower (0.6); water gives food irrigation (0.8): the strongest relations between the sectors this subject joins.<\/p><\/div><p class=\"nx-nsig-code\" aria-live=\"polite\"><span>W<\/span> \u00b7 <span>E<\/span> \u00b7 <span>I<\/span> \u00b7 <span>F<\/span> \u00b7 <span class=\"nx-nsig-off\">H<\/span> \u00b7 <span class=\"nx-nsig-off\">B<\/span><\/p><dl class=\"nx-nsig-stats\"><div><dt>Sectors<\/dt><dd><strong>4<\/strong> <small>of 6<\/small><\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Relations<\/dt><dd><strong>6<\/strong> <small>of 15<\/small><\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Coupling<\/dt><dd><strong>0.46<\/strong> <small>share of total<\/small><\/dd><\/div><\/dl><div class=\"nx-nsig-detail\"><h3 class=\"nx-nsig-dh\">Strongest relations in play<\/h3><ul class=\"nx-nsig-rel\"><li><span class=\"nx-nsig-rt\"><b>Energy \u2192 Infrastructure<\/b> \u00b7 power for transport and telecoms<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-bar\" data-v=\"8\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-v\">0.8<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-nsig-rt\"><b>Water \u2192 Energy<\/b> \u00b7 cooling water and hydropower<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-bar\" data-v=\"6\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-v\">0.6<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-nsig-rt\"><b>Water \u2192 Food<\/b> \u00b7 irrigation<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-bar\" data-v=\"8\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-v\">0.8<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-nsig-rt\"><b>Infrastructure \u2192 Water<\/b> \u00b7 pipes, dams and treatment works<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-bar\" data-v=\"6\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-v\">0.6<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nsig-actions\" hidden><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-nsig-btn\" data-sig-act=\"all\">Select all<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-nsig-btn\" data-sig-act=\"clear\">Clear<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-nsig-btn nx-nsig-pri\" data-sig-act=\"copy\">Copy signature<\/button><\/div><\/div><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-nsig-note\">Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-07-full-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-07-full-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-07-full-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/model\/scenarios\/urban-flood\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Urban flood<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/risk-information-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Risk information standards and interoperability<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/data\/identification-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Identification (the UNI)<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script><style>@media print { @page { margin: 20mm 17mm 20mm 17mm; @top-left { content: \"Nexus Reports\"; font: 500 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @top-right { content: \"Strategic Systems Report 2026: Food\\002013 Water\\002013 Energy Security \\0000b7  Baseline Edition 2026\"; font: 400 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Sans\", sans-serif; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-left { content: \"NR-STRATEGIC-FWE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE \\0000b7  Draft, not released\"; font: 400 7pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-center { content: \"CC BY 4.0. 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