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\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\"><style>#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe{display:block;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:1180px;margin:0 auto;padding:0 16px;font-family:ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,\"Segoe UI\",sans-serif;line-height:1.55;overflow-wrap:break-word}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe :where(*,*::before,*::after){box-sizing:inherit}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe :where(section,header,footer,nav,aside){display:block;margin:0 0 32px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe :where(h1,h2,h3,h4){line-height:1.2;margin:24px 0 12px;font-weight:600}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe :where(p,ul,ol,dl,table,figure,details){margin:0 0 16px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe :where(ul,ol){padding-left:20px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe a{color:inherit;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:2px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;display:block;overflow-x:auto}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe :where(th,td){padding:6px 8px;text-align:left;vertical-align:top;border-bottom:1px solid;border-color:inherit}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe svg{display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-09-full.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Strategic Systems Report 2026: Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SR-09<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Strategic Systems<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Pressure builds across the system<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>The planetary boundaries framework names nine processes that keep the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> stable. The 2025 Planetary Health Check finds seven of the nine transgressed, with <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">ocean acidification<\/a> the newest<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. An earlier assessment found six in 2023 and noted that every boundary already exceeded had moved further past its limit<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Warming tells the same story. Copernicus puts 2025 at 1.47 degrees C above pre-industrial and finds the 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5 degrees C for the first time<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>. Global annual mean CO2 reached 425.62 ppm in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>, against a boundary value of 350 ppm<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. Tipping points move from theory to observation: the Global Tipping Points Report finds that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is now underway, with a central threshold estimate of 1.2 degrees C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. For other elements the evidence conflicts. Three studies disagree on whether the Atlantic overturning circulation is heading for collapse<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup>. This baseline reads these results as mechanisms and thresholds. It ranks no country, forecasts no tipping date and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the planetary boundaries baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">No: seven of nine boundaries are transgressed in the 2025 assessment.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> inside the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 safe-operating-space\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The region within all planetary boundaries in which human development can proceed with a low risk of destabilising the Earth system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">safe operating space<\/a>?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes: 1.47 degrees C in 2025 and a three-year average above 1.5.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is warming still rising?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">For warm-water reefs, the report says the central estimate has been passed.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Has any <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h28\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.climate-state.abrupt-regime-shift\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Climate-state shifts\" data-td=\"A threshold crossing in a large climate-system component, such as an ocean circulation or a rainforest, that changes regional climate quickly and may not reverse.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H28\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">tipping point<\/a> been crossed?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">No: three studies differ on the Atlantic circulation.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Do all tipping studies agree?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">To 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C by 2100, depending on pledges.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Where does policy point?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes: 425.62 ppm in 2025 and a record fossil emissions projection.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is carbon dioxide still rising?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes: about one million species are threatened.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Does life on land and sea show the same pressure?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps Atlantic and Amazon stress. SCN-SR09-CMP-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The Global Tipping Points Report finds that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is underway. The central threshold estimate is 1.2 degrees C, with a range of 1.0 to 1.5, and warming is about 1.4.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-fig1-t\">Warming and the reef threshold (degrees C)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Current warming (about)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"93.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">\u22481.4<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Threshold, upper estimate<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1.5<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Threshold, central estimate<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"80.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Threshold, lower estimate<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"66.7\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1.0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: Global Tipping Points Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Values are as published and approximate.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">Current warming sits above the central threshold estimate and inside the range. The report states that reefs are very likely to tip even if warming stabilises at 1.5, and that nearly a billion people and about a quarter of marine life depend on them<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">of 9<\/span><p>boundaries transgressed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.47<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">degrees C<\/span><p>warming above pre-industrial, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">425.62<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">ppm<\/span><p>CO2, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">degrees C<\/span><p>projected, current policies (up to)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">degrees C<\/span><p>reef central threshold<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22481<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>species threatened<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading the Earth system as one linked system.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people the signs arrive as hotter years, bleached reefs, shifting rain and thinner harvests.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Projected warming of 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C by 2100 and threshold risks bear on long-term asset and credit risk.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Earth-system risk is well described boundary by boundary and thinly measured as a system.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the 2026 state of the planetary boundaries and the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a>\u2019s tipping elements and the couplings through which it carries risk into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a ranking of countries, a forecast of any tipping event, an attribution of any single event to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a> or an assessment of any government, company or policy. Protection of the Earth system rests with states, institutions and the people who act within them.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 planetary boundaries edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">ocean acidification<\/a> near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>ECMWF and Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h11\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.coastal.sea-level-rise\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Coastal and sea-level hazards\" data-td=\"A long-term rise of mean sea level that raises the baseline for floods, erosion and saltwater intrusion.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H11\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">sea-level rise<\/a> 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Pressure builds across the system<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is planetary boundaries risk concentrated?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry planetary boundaries shocks into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which planetary boundaries capabilities hold under compound stress?<\/li><li>What must 2027 evidence measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five mechanism chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>The <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> is usually reported by topic: climate, ocean, forests, water, chemicals. The 2023 to 2026 evidence reads them as one system with nine linked processes. Seven of the nine are beyond their boundary in the 2025 assessment, and all seven show rising pressure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The causes repeat. Fossil carbon raises CO2 and warms the surface<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>, and the same carbon acidifies the ocean<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Land conversion and fertiliser use press on the biosphere and on nutrient cycles<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. Novel chemicals and plastics are released faster than they can be assessed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Thresholds are now part of the record. Warm-water coral reefs have passed the central estimate of their thermal threshold<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Ice sheets sit near thresholds of about 1.5 degrees C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>. Studies disagree on the Atlantic circulation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup>, and the Amazon faces compounding disturbance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The edition therefore asks four questions of every result: what is the common cause, how does it spread, what is shared, and what threshold lies ahead. It makes no forecast and ranks no country.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-fig1-t\">How do observed and projected warming compare with the reef threshold? Degrees C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Observed warming is close to the central reef threshold and projected warming is well above it. The bars mix observation and projection, so they show scale only<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Projected, current policies (up to)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">2.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Projected, new pledges fully met (upper end)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"89.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">2.5<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Observed, 2025 (Copernicus)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"52.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1.47<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Reef tipping point, central estimate<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"42.9\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1.2<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">degrees C<\/span><p>projected, current policies (up to)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.3 to 2.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">degrees C<\/span><p>projected, new pledges met<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.47<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">degrees C<\/span><p>observed, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">degrees C<\/span><p>reef central threshold<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The planetary boundaries-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for their planetary boundaries content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydropower \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation \u00b7 green water<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">safe supply \u00b7 sanitation<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">wetlands \u00b7 river flows<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 treatment<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">machinery \u00b7 processing<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">clinics \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">warming \u00b7 acidification<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">withdrawals \u00b7 nutrient runoff<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bioenergy<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion \u00b7 nitrogen<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">effluent<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">demand<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moisture recycling \u00b7 natural infrastructure<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydrology<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination \u00b7 soils<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses \u00b7 heat buffering<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 BIO \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Fossil carbon warms and acidifies, and living systems that feed people lose integrity.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> Planetary Health Check<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FOO \u2192 WAT, BIO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Fertiliser and land conversion push nutrient and water limits.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> boundary values<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 BIO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Warming passes the central reef threshold estimate.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> Tipping Points Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">BIO \u2192 WAT \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Forest loss weakens moisture recycling and the rain that crops need.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> Amazon transitions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup> \u00b7 green water<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 CLI<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Ice-sheet and ocean circulation changes feed back on warming and rainfall.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> tipping reassessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup> \u00b7 AMOC studies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.4<\/span><span>Reinforcing loops<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Loop<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First direction<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Second direction<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to food: irrigation \u00b7 green water<\/td><td>Food to water: withdrawals \u00b7 nutrient runoff<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to biodiversity: wetlands \u00b7 river flows<\/td><td>Biodiversity to water: moisture recycling \u00b7 natural infrastructure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Food to biodiversity: land conversion \u00b7 nitrogen<\/td><td>Biodiversity to food: pollination \u00b7 soils<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"3\">A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">ocean acidification<\/a> near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>ECMWF and Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Outside the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 safe-operating-space\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The region within all planetary boundaries in which human development can proceed with a low risk of destabilising the Earth system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Safe Operating Space<\/a> of the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 planetary-boundary\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A precautionary limit on a human pressure on a key Earth-system process, such as climate, biosphere integrity, nutrient flows, freshwater, land, novel entities, aerosols or ocean chemistry, beyond which the risk of\u2026\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Planetary Boundary<\/a> for Novel Entities, Environmental Science and Technology 56(3), 1510 to 1521, 2022 (abstract read). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al., A planetary boundary for green water, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3(6), 380 to 392, 2022 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c1-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the planetary boundaries baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The Global Tipping Points Report finds that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is underway. The central threshold estimate is 1.2 degrees C, with a range of 1.0 to 1.5, and warming is about 1.4.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-fig1-t\">Warming and the reef threshold (degrees C)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Current warming (about)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"93.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">\u22481.4<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Threshold, upper estimate<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1.5<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Threshold, central estimate<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"80.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1.2<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Threshold, lower estimate<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"66.7\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1.0<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: Global Tipping Points Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Values are as published and approximate.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Current warming sits above the central threshold estimate and inside the range. The report states that reefs are very likely to tip even if warming stabilises at 1.5, and that nearly a billion people and about a quarter of marine life depend on them<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Annual bleaching reports, the next tipping points assessment and any revision of the threshold range would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-001\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Seven of the nine planetary boundaries are transgressed in the 2025 assessment, with <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">ocean acidification<\/a> newly crossed; aerosol loading and stratospheric ozone remain within their limits. The 2023 assessment counted six.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-011\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> boundaries are exceeded, and two or more are exceeded across 52% of land that holds 86% of the population.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Climate forcing<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Global surface air temperature in 2025 was 1.47 degrees C above the 1850 to 1900 level, the third warmest year, and the 2023 to 2025 average passed 1.5 degrees C for the first time.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Global annual mean CO2 was 425.62 ppm in 2025, up from 422.79 ppm in 2024, against a climate boundary value of 350 ppm.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">UNEP projects 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C of warming by 2100 if new national pledges are fully implemented and up to 2.8 degrees C on current policies.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The Global Tipping Points Report finds that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is underway; the central threshold estimate is 1.2 degrees C (range 1.0 to 1.5) and warming is about 1.4.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">A reassessment of climate tipping elements puts the central thresholds for the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets at about 1.5 degrees C, with ranges of 0.8 to 3 and 1 to 3, and counts nine core and seven regional tipping elements.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Published studies disagree on the Atlantic overturning circulation: one estimates collapse around mid-century, one reads present reanalysis data as on route to tipping, and a 34-model study judges collapse this century unlikely.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Biodiversity<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-008\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">By 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests are estimated to be exposed to compounding disturbances that could trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">IPBES found around one million animal and plant species threatened with extinction, with about 75% of the land environment and about 66% of the marine environment significantly altered.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Water<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-010\">NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The freshwater change boundary is transgressed: blue water at 22.6% against a 12.9% limit and green water at 22.0% against a 12.4% limit.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">ocean acidification<\/a> near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Safe and just <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>ECMWF and Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-warming\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The rise in global average surface temperature relative to a pre-industrial baseline, the headline indicator of human-driven climate change.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global warming<\/a> could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al., A planetary boundary for green water, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3(6), 380 to 392, 2022 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c2-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Boundaries<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Planetary boundaries transgressed<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">of 9<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">ocean acidification<\/a> newly crossed.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>Planetary Health Check<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CLI \u00b7 Temperature<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Global temperature above pre-industrial<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.47<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">degrees C<\/span><p>third-warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>Copernicus<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CLI \u00b7 Carbon dioxide<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Global annual mean CO2<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">425.62<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">ppm<\/span><p>up from 422.79 in 2024.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>NOAA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CLI \u00b7 Reefs<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Central tipping estimate for warm-water reefs<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">degrees C<\/span><p>range 1.0 to 1.5; warming about 1.4.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>Tipping Points Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">BIO \u00b7 Species<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Species threatened with extinction<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22481<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>three quarters of land significantly altered.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2019<\/span><span>IPBES<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Outlook<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Projected warming, current policies (up to)<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">degrees C<\/span><p>2.3 to 2.5 if new pledges are met.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>UNEP<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through planetary boundaries, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries planetary boundaries risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Blue and green water changes are beyond their limits; the water cycle holds about 7% more moisture per degree of warming.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT \u2194 BIO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Fossil carbon is the main source of CO2 and acidification; fossil emissions projected at a record in 2025.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Fertiliser use pushes nitrogen and phosphorus flows past their limits; land conversion presses on forests.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2192 BIO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Pollution and heat reach people; evidence not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>The core system: about one million species threatened; Amazon forests exposed to compounding disturbance.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>Warming of 1.47 degrees C and CO2 of 425.62 ppm; reef threshold passed.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Coastal and urban assets face <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h11\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.coastal.sea-level-rise\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Coastal and sea-level hazards\" data-td=\"A long-term rise of mean sea level that raises the baseline for floods, erosion and saltwater intrusion.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H11\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">sea-level rise<\/a>, which has nearly doubled in rate; detail sits in sibling editions.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Outlook of 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C by 2100 shapes long-term risk; no consolidated cost series.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation and monitoring series support every finding; datasets differ by a few hundredths of a degree.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2192 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>Models and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> methods carry the tipping evidence; their reliability is questioned.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2194 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Extraction drives land change and waste; evidence not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 BIO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Trade carries land and nutrient pressure across borders; detail sits in sibling editions.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2192 BIO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on planetary boundaries, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>nine linked boundaries; seven transgressed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>second boundary crossed<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>blue and green water beyond limits<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>soil moisture and flow change<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>fossil carbon drives CO2 and acidification<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>continued emissions<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food and agrifood<\/td><td>nitrogen at 165 against a limit of 62 Tg a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>fertiliser pressure<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>heat and pollution reach people<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>air pollution above just limit<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance and economy<\/td><td>outlook of 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>repricing of long-term risk<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>two or more boundaries exceeded for 86% of people<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>unequal exposure<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>1.47 degrees C in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>threshold crossing<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>compounding disturbance in forests<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 concurrent-hazards\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Two or more hazards affecting the same area or population at overlapping times, straining response capacity simultaneously.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">concurrent hazards<\/a><\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h11\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.coastal.sea-level-rise\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Coastal and sea-level hazards\" data-td=\"A long-term rise of mean sea level that raises the baseline for floods, erosion and saltwater intrusion.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H11\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">sea-level rise<\/a> rate 4.1 mm a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>coastal exposure<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>heat and air pollution exposure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>multi-hazard exposure<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>about one million species threatened<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>loss of integrity<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>temperature and CO2 series<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>dataset differences<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>monitoring and model infrastructure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>loss of data series<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a> and biodiversity targets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>implementation gaps<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>tipping science is active and contested<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> reliability<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>ECMWF and Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Safe and just <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h11\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.coastal.sea-level-rise\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Coastal and sea-level hazards\" data-td=\"A long-term rise of mean sea level that raises the baseline for floods, erosion and saltwater intrusion.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H11\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">sea-level rise<\/a> 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a> under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted 2015, cited from memory; the page returned only headings. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-warming\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The rise in global average surface temperature relative to a pre-industrial baseline, the headline indicator of human-driven climate change.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global warming<\/a> could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>30 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR09-CLI-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Reef and ice-sheet thresholds near current warming<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>warming of 1.47 degrees C in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>warm-water reefs; Greenland and West Antarctic ice<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>threshold ranges overlap current warming<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>emission cuts; reef conservation; adaptation planning<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 BIO \u2192 FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 10 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR09-BIO-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Amazon forest transition under compounding disturbance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>drought, fire, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> and warming acting together<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>10% to 47% of forests by 2050<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>overlapping disturbance; thresholds uncertain<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>protection and restoration targets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>BIO \u2192 WAT \u2192 FOO<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>5 to 25 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR09-CLI-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Atlantic circulation weakening or collapse<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>warming and freshwater input to the North Atlantic<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>north-west Europe, monsoon <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>studies disagree on the threshold and timing<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>monitoring and model improvement<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 FOO<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>decades, uncertain<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR09-SYS-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Several boundaries transgressed together<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>seven of nine boundaries beyond limits<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>two or more boundaries exceeded for 86% of people<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>interactions between boundaries not quantified<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>policy frameworks for climate and biodiversity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2194 BIO \u2194 WAT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 10 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a> in force; projected warming still 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>long temperature and CO2 series from several agencies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>early warning signals for tipping studied; reliability questioned<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>adaptation planning guidance published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>natural carbon sinks and remaining carbon budget tracked<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>response to Earth-system thresholds not yet tested<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>not consolidated here<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>ozone layer recovery under the Montreal Protocol<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>assessments and standards published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>not consolidated here<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>disclosure and nature-target frameworks published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>climate, biodiversity and ozone treaties in force or adopted<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>earth-system models and satellite records<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>boundary and tipping science mature and contested<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>ECMWF and Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-warming\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The rise in global average surface temperature relative to a pre-industrial baseline, the headline indicator of human-driven climate change.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global warming<\/a> could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Safe and just <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a> under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted 2015, cited from memory; the page returned only headings. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Scheffer, M. et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461, 53 to 59, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, and ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to climate change, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m\u00b2 for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987) and the Kigali Amendment (2016), cited from memory. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 1987. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022\/2464 on corporate sustainability reporting, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Science Based Targets Network, Science-Based Targets for Nature: Initial Guidance for Business, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Steffen, W. et al., Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet, Science 347(6223), 2015 (abstract read). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>WMO and UNEP (eds.), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022 (assessment page read; finalised 25 to 29 July 2022; no figure taken from it). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Tipping elements in the Earth\u2019s climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(6), 1786 to 1793, 2008 (abstract read). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M., Rockstr\u00f6m, J., Gaffney, O. et al., Climate tipping points: too risky to bet against, Nature 575, 592 to 595, 2019 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wunderling, N. et al., Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Earth System Dynamics 12, 601 to 619, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Identifying a safe and just corridor for people and the planet, Earth\u2019s Future 9, e2020EF001866, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c4-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>2 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-SR09-CMP-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>continued warming near 1.5 degrees C with a strong <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.marine-heatwave\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of unusually warm sea water that stresses reefs, fish and kelp and fuels storms and rain.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">marine heatwave<\/a> and a severe Amazon drought in the same decade<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.coral-bleaching\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Corals expelling their algal partners under heat stress, turning white and often dying, with loss of reef fisheries and shore protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">reef mortality<\/a>, 2025 report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>; marine heatwave of 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 BIO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">ocean heat drives widespread reef bleaching and mortality<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 CLI<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">a weaker Atlantic circulation shifts rainfall and temperature in Europe, Africa and South America<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2023 \u00b7 2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">BIO \u2192 WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">drought and fire raise forest disturbance and reduce moisture recycling<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2024<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">harvests fall where rain shifts and water stress rises<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">BIO \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">fisheries, tourism and coastal protection lose value<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 CLI<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">losses strain budgets for adaptation and mitigation<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-SR09-CMP-01 would travel through Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Climate to biodiversity<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Ocean heat drives widespread reef bleaching and mortality. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-09, scenario SCN-SR09-CMP-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Climate to climate<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A weaker Atlantic circulation shifts rainfall and temperature in Europe, Africa and South America. Analogue or source: 2023 \u00b7 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-09, scenario SCN-SR09-CMP-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Biodiversity to water<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Drought and fire raise forest disturbance and reduce moisture recycling. Analogue or source: 2024.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-09, scenario SCN-SR09-CMP-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Water to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Harvests fall where rain shifts and water stress rises. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-09, scenario SCN-SR09-CMP-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Biodiversity to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Fisheries, tourism and coastal protection lose value. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-09, scenario SCN-SR09-CMP-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Finance to climate<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Losses strain budgets for adaptation and mitigation. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-09, scenario SCN-SR09-CMP-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026, scenario SCN-SR09-CMP-01<\/a> (2026); Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.marine-heatwave\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of unusually warm sea water that stresses reefs, fish and kelp and fuels storms and rain.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">marine heatwave<\/a> during 2023, Nature 642(8068), 636 to 643, 2025 (authors not recorded here; bibliographic record and abstract read; no figure used). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c5-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The global baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>15 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>36 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading the Earth system as one linked system. Seven of nine boundaries are beyond their limits, warming is near the threshold range for reefs and ice sheets, and studies disagree on the Atlantic circulation. Evidence is strongest for boundary status and weakest for interactions between boundaries.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-001 \u00b7 CLI-005 \u00b7 CLI-007 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people the signs arrive as hotter years, bleached reefs, shifting rain and thinner harvests. The baseline asks that public debate treat the Earth system as shared and linked, and keep thresholds, not only averages, in view.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">CLI-002 \u00b7 CLI-005 \u00b7 BIO-009<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Projected warming of 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C by 2100 and threshold risks bear on long-term asset and credit risk. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">CLI-004 \u00b7 CLI-006<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Earth-system risk is well described boundary by boundary and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind interaction strengths, resolve the ocean circulation disagreement and test the compound pathway.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 P-01 \u00b7 P-03<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for planetary boundaries. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability exist?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests show?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What changed in the year, and what renews?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> strategic desks<\/td><td>planetary chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness<\/td><td>strategic editorial board<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard is a decision of the competent standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Each boundary has its own control variable, but the processes share causes and feed one another. Reading them together shows pressure that single-topic reporting misses. This edition reads the system.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>Boundaries are one system<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Tipping assessments give central estimates with wide ranges, and observation now confirms one case. Ranges guide risk screening. They do not forecast a date, and studies still disagree on several elements.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Thresholds are ranges, not dates<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Three studies of the Atlantic circulation reach different conclusions with different methods. The baseline reports all three and treats the disagreement as a gap to close with better records.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Disagreement is part of the evidence<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Safe and just boundaries show that limits set by fairness can be stricter than limits set by stability. The burden of exceedance falls unevenly across people and regions.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Justice sets the limit as often as safety<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 planetary boundaries edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 planetary boundaries readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 planetary boundaries readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Nexus risk class: a risk whose hazard, consequences or causal chain crosses national borders and acts at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can assess or manage it alone.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/glossary\/global-risk\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Forum glossary\">Global risk<\/a> state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 6 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>national chapters in preparation<\/td><td>national chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments and published guidance that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>temperature goal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Convention on Biological Diversity<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2022<\/td><td>30% conservation and restoration targets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Montreal Protocol<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>ozone-depleting substances<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nature Restoration Regulation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>restoration targets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Corporate Sustainability Reporting Directive<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>sustainability disclosure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Science-based targets for nature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>SBTN<\/td><td>global use<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>company targets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPCC Sixth Assessment Synthesis Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IPCC<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>assessment of climate science<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Chemicals Outlook II<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNEP<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>chemicals and waste<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions Gap Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNEP<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>gap between pledges and pathways<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation guidance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IPCC and ISO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/td><td>adaptation planning<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The Planetary Health Check 2025 added <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">ocean acidification<\/a> as a seventh transgressed boundary<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The 2023 to 2025 average temperature passed 1.5 degrees C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Emissions Gap Report 2025 lowered projected warming on new pledges to 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Implementation of the 2030 conservation and restoration targets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>National climate pledges and their effect on projected warming<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Application of the EU restoration and disclosure rules<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers planetary boundaries assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the planetary boundaries and the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a>\u2019s tipping elements and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>boundary assessments; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h28\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.climate-state.abrupt-regime-shift\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Climate-state shifts\" data-td=\"A threshold crossing in a large climate-system component, such as an ocean circulation or a rainforest, that changes regional climate quickly and may not reverse.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H28\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">tipping point<\/a> reviews; peer-reviewed Earth-system studies; temperature and carbon records<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Rockstr\u00f6m et al., A <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 safe-operating-space\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The region within all planetary boundaries in which human development can proceed with a low risk of destabilising the Earth system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">safe operating space<\/a> for humanity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2009<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>the framework<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steffen et al., Planetary boundaries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2015<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>two-tier approach<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Richardson et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>six of nine boundaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Armstrong McKay et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>tipping thresholds<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lenton et al., Tipping elements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2008<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 tipping-element\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A large component of the Earth system, such as an ice sheet, ocean circulation or major forest, that can pass a tipping point and change state with global consequences.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">tipping element<\/a> concept<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steffen et al., Trajectories of the Earth System<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>Hothouse Earth pathway<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional flagships<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Planetary Health Check 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Planetary Boundaries Science<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>seven of nine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Tipping Points Report 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>University of Exeter and partners<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>reef threshold<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IPBES<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>species and land<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions Gap Report 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNEP<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>projected warming<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Synthesis Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IPCC<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>assessment baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Update for COP30<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>warming and sea level<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Statistics, indicators and budgets<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global Climate Highlights 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Copernicus and ECMWF<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>temperature<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Annual mean CO2<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOAA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>carbon dioxide<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Carbon Budget 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Global Carbon Project<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>budget and emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Carbon Budget 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Global Carbon Project<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>record emissions projection<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Forster et al.<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>human-induced warming<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Boundary status dashboard<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Globaia<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>control variables<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Planetary boundaries overview<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Stockholm Resilience Centre<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>history of counts<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards, treaties and frameworks<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>2015<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>temperature goal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Biodiversity Framework targets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Convention on Biological Diversity<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>30% targets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Montreal Protocol<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>1987<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>ozone recovery<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ozone assessment 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO and UNEP<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>ozone science<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nature Restoration Regulation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>restoration law<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sustainability reporting directive<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>disclosure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Science-based targets for nature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>SBTN<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>company targets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Economics of water<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Global Commission<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>water cycle<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chemicals outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNEP<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>chemicals<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Seven of nine boundaries are beyond their limits<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Warming and CO2 keep rising<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Warm-water reefs are passing their thermal threshold<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Whether and when the Atlantic circulation tips<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How strongly boundaries interact<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How far early warning signals can be trusted<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How much warming is in the pipeline<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a> under the United Nations Framework Convention on <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a>, adopted 2015, cited from memory; the page returned only headings. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987) and the Kigali Amendment (2016), cited from memory. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 1987. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1991 on nature restoration, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022\/2464 on corporate sustainability reporting, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Science Based Targets Network, Science-Based Targets for Nature: Initial Guidance for Business, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Global Chemicals Outlook II: From Legacies to Innovative Solutions, 2019, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, and ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to climate change, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., A <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 safe-operating-space\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The region within all planetary boundaries in which human development can proceed with a low risk of destabilising the Earth system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">safe operating space<\/a> for humanity, Nature 461, 472 to 475, 2009 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Steffen, W. et al., Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet, Science 347(6223), 2015 (abstract read). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">ocean acidification<\/a> near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-warming\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The rise in global average surface temperature relative to a pre-industrial baseline, the headline indicator of human-driven climate change.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global warming<\/a> could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Tipping elements in the Earth\u2019s climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(6), 1786 to 1793, 2008 (abstract read). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Steffen, W., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(33), 8252 to 8259, 2018 (abstract read). Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m\u00b2 for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Planetary boundaries (overview page: four crossed in 2015, six in 2023, seven now). Stockholm University, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>WMO and UNEP (eds.), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022 (assessment page read; finalised 25 to 29 July 2022; no figure taken from it). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Global Commission on the Economics of Water (ed.), Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action, release page of 17 March 2023 (about 7% more atmospheric moisture per degree C of warming). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rocha, J.C., Peterson, G., Bodin, O. and Levin, S., Cascading regime shifts within and across scales, Science 362, 1379 to 1383, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Scheffer, M. et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461, 53 to 59, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boulton, C.A., Lenton, T.M. and Boers, N., Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s, Nature Climate Change 12, 271 to 278, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hansen, J.E. et al., Global warming in the pipeline, Oxford Open Climate Change 3(1), kgad008, 2023, cited from memory; the paper\u2019s view on climate sensitivity differs from the IPCC range. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 planetary boundaries agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 planetary boundaries edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>5 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would reef loss, a weaker Atlantic circulation and Amazon stress combine in the same decade?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR09-CMP-01 \u00b7 compound Earth-system pathway; first output: dependency analysis for six regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which boundary interactions are strong enough to move a second boundary when one is crossed?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR09-INT-02 \u00b7 boundary interactions; first output: interaction register.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where do published studies disagree on tipping thresholds, and why?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR09-THR-03 \u00b7 threshold disagreement; first output: threshold comparison table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">What would a long, direct record of Atlantic circulation strength change in the evidence?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR09-OCN-04 \u00b7 ocean circulation record; first output: record and gap map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which regions hold the most exposed forests, reefs and ice, and which people depend on them?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR09-EXP-05 \u00b7 regional exposure; first output: exposure overlay.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which boundaries have agreed control variables, and which do not?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do boundary limits translate to national and company scale?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">P-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which Earth-system capabilities have been tested in practice, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Earth-system capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 planetary portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR09-CMP-01<\/span><\/td><td>Compound Earth-system pathway<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>P-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR09-INT-02<\/span><\/td><td>Boundary interactions<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>P-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR09-THR-03<\/span><\/td><td>Threshold disagreement<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>P-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR09-OCN-04<\/span><\/td><td>Ocean circulation record<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>P-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR09-EXP-05<\/span><\/td><td>Regional exposure<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>P-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-SR09-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Compound reef, ocean and forest Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>P-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The planetary boundaries edition reads national chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National environment chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">boundary reading in each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">IN PREPARATION \u00b7 national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Sector editions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">climate, water, biodiversity, food<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 sector Baseline Editions<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Planetary boundaries model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">SR-07 food, water and energy \u00b7 SR-06 insurance \u00b7 SR-02 lifelines<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Planetary Boundaries Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE DRAFT \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the planetary boundaries candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the planetary boundaries candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 planetary boundaries annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-SR09-2027-01 \u00b7 Compound reef, ocean and forest Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead: drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SYS-001 \u00b7 boundary status<\/td><td>regional consortia<\/td><td>boundary overlay<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CLI-002 \u00b7 temperature<\/td><td>INI-SR09-THR-03<\/td><td>threshold comparison<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CLI-005 \u00b7 reef threshold<\/td><td>INI-SR09-CMP-01<\/td><td>compound pathway<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CLI-007 \u00b7 ocean circulation<\/td><td>INI-SR09-OCN-04<\/td><td>record and gap map<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIO-008 \u00b7 Amazon transitions<\/td><td>INI-SR09-EXP-05<\/td><td>regional exposure<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIO-009 \u00b7 species and land<\/td><td>sector editions<\/td><td>biodiversity chapters<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WAT-010 \u00b7 freshwater change<\/td><td>INI-SR09-INT-02 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td>boundary interactions<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-SR09-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CODES ARE NOT JOINS<\/p><p>Series codes in this edition (SR-09 and its relatives) are Reports codes. Codes in other indices can look alike. This edition makes no join on a code alone: a join needs a registry record that names both subjects.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global temperature bulletins<\/td><td>Copernicus and ECMWF<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>CLI-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Atmospheric CO2 series<\/td><td>NOAA<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions Gap Report<\/td><td>UNEP<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI-004<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of the climate updates<\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Carbon Budget<\/td><td>Global Carbon Project<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Planetary Health Check<\/td><td>Planetary Boundaries Science<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>SYS-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tipping points assessments<\/td><td>University of Exeter and partners<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>CLI-005<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-SR09-001<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h27\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.species.coral-bleaching\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Biodiversity and species stress\" data-td=\"Corals expelling their algal partners under heat stress, turning white and often dying, with loss of reef fisheries and shore protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H27\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Reef mortality<\/a> beyond the central threshold estimate in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 BIO<\/td><td>risk object RSK-SR09-CLI-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR09-002<\/td><td>Disagreement among studies on the Atlantic circulation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 WAT<\/td><td>research question P-03<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR09-003<\/td><td>Compounding disturbance in Amazon forests<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>BIO \u00b7 WAT<\/td><td>risk object RSK-SR09-BIO-002<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c7-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>8 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>20 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Common causes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One cause can press on many boundaries at once. Fossil carbon warms the surface and acidifies the ocean, and land conversion presses on forests, water and species.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">425.62<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">ppm<\/span><p>global annual mean CO2, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224837.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">GtCO2<\/span><p>fossil CO2 emissions, 2024 (preliminary)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>projected rise in fossil CO2 emissions, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Fossil carbon<\/td><td>CO2 rising each year; record fossil emissions projected for 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Land conversion<\/td><td>about 75% of land significantly altered<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fertiliser and nutrients<\/td><td>nitrogen and phosphorus flows above their limits<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Novel entities<\/td><td>releases rise faster than assessment capacity<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 CLI emissions<\/li><li>FOO \u2192 BIO land and nutrients<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 BIO extraction<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>shares of each cause by boundary<\/li><li>control variable for novel entities<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The next Global Carbon Budget; annual CO2 means; land-use change reports.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes causes recorded in public sources. It attributes no single event and assesses no government or company.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Domino effects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Crossing one threshold can raise the odds of crossing the next. The reassessment of climate tipping points states that crossing some of them can increase the likelihood of crossing others.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">core<\/span><p>tipping elements in the 2022 reassessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>impact tipping elements in the 2022 reassessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10% to 47%<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><\/span><p>of Amazon forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Ice sheet to ocean circulation<\/td><td>Greenland melt would affect the Atlantic circulation<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Reef loss to people<\/td><td>nearly a billion people and a quarter of marine life depend on reefs<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Forest to water<\/td><td>forest loss reduces moisture recycling<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tipping cascades<\/td><td>interacting elements raise the risk of climate domino effects<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 BIO<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 WAT \u2192 FOO<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 CLI ice and ocean<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>cascade strengths between elements<\/li><li>timing of knock-on effects<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Further <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h28\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.climate-state.abrupt-regime-shift\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Climate-state shifts\" data-td=\"A threshold crossing in a large climate-system component, such as an ocean circulation or a rainforest, that changes regional climate quickly and may not reverse.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H28\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">tipping point<\/a> assessments; cascade modelling; observed reef and forest change.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes dependency sequences. It forecasts no event and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Inter-systemic feedbacks<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> amplifies and dampens itself. Heat accumulates, seas rise faster, and natural sinks respond to the carbon and heat they absorb.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">0.89<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">W per m\u00b2<\/span><p>Earth energy imbalance, 2005 to 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">mm a year<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h11\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.coastal.sea-level-rise\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Coastal and sea-level hazards\" data-td=\"A long-term rise of mean sea level that raises the baseline for floods, erosion and saltwater intrusion.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H11\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">sea-level rise<\/a> rate, 2016 to 2025 (2.1 in 1993 to 2002)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22487<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>more atmospheric moisture per degree C of warming<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Heat uptake<\/td><td>energy imbalance has risen in each 20-year period since 1975<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sea level<\/td><td>rate of rise nearly doubled between 1993 to 2002 and 2016 to 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water cycle<\/td><td>warming adds moisture and intensifies the cycle<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ocean carbon uptake<\/td><td>absorbed CO2 acidifies the surface ocean<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 CLI energy imbalance<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 WAT water cycle<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 BIO acidification<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>feedback strengths at global scale<\/li><li>sink response under overshoot<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Annual energy imbalance estimates; sea-level updates; sink assessments in the Global Carbon Budget.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes feedback loops. It assesses no state or company.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Shared vulnerabilities<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Different boundaries share the same weak points: warm-water reefs, large forests, ice sheets and the people who depend on them.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22481<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>people who depend on warm-water reefs, nearly<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">86<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of the world population with two or more safe and just boundaries exceeded<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">85<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of the world population above the proposed just air pollution limit<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Reefs<\/td><td>thermal threshold passed; many people and species depend on them<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Forests<\/td><td>compounding disturbance projected for large areas<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Unequal exposure<\/td><td>multiple exceedances concentrate where many people live<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Shared data gaps<\/td><td>no agreed control variable for chemicals and plastics<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 BIO reef loss<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 WAT forest loss<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 FIN lost services<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>regional exposure maps<\/li><li>dependence of livelihoods on specific <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Regional exposure overlays; bleaching reports; forest disturbance data.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes shared weak points in public sources. It assesses no state, institution or company.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Thresholds and tipping<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Boundaries mark where risk rises. Tipping points mark where change can become self-sustaining.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">degrees C<\/span><p>central threshold estimate, warm-water reefs<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22481.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">degrees C<\/span><p>central threshold estimate, Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.84<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">against 2.86<\/span><p>ocean aragonite saturation against its limit<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Boundary limits<\/td><td>seven of nine control variables beyond their limits<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Reef threshold<\/td><td>central estimate passed at about 1.4 degrees C of warming<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ice sheets<\/td><td>central estimates near 1.5 degrees C with wide ranges<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Atlantic circulation<\/td><td>studies disagree on whether it tips this century<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 CLI threshold crossing<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 BIO reef tipping<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 WAT circulation<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>threshold ranges at regional scale<\/li><li>a long record of circulation strength<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Next tipping assessment; observed ice-sheet and reef change; further circulation studies.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes thresholds in public sources. It is not a prediction and assesses no state or company.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth System<\/a> Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Outside the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 safe-operating-space\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The region within all planetary boundaries in which human development can proceed with a low risk of destabilising the Earth system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Safe Operating Space<\/a> of the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 planetary-boundary\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A precautionary limit on a human pressure on a key Earth-system process, such as climate, biosphere integrity, nutrient flows, freshwater, land, novel entities, aerosols or ocean chemistry, beyond which the risk of\u2026\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Planetary Boundary<\/a> for Novel Entities, Environmental Science and Technology 56(3), 1510 to 1521, 2022 (abstract read). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-warming\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The rise in global average surface temperature relative to a pre-industrial baseline, the headline indicator of human-driven climate change.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global warming<\/a> could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al., A planetary boundary for green water, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3(6), 380 to 392, 2022 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wunderling, N. et al., Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Earth System Dynamics 12, 601 to 619, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rocha, J.C., Peterson, G., Bodin, O. and Levin, S., Cascading regime shifts within and across scales, Science 362, 1379 to 1383, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m\u00b2 for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Global Commission on the Economics of Water (ed.), Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action, release page of 17 March 2023 (about 7% more atmospheric moisture per degree C of warming). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-c8-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>13 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>CO2 rise from 2024 to 2025<\/td><td>425.62 minus 422.79<\/td><td>\u2248 2.83 ppm<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>CO2 above the climate boundary value, 2025<\/td><td>425.62 minus 350<\/td><td>\u2248 76 ppm<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Nitrogen flow relative to its limit<\/td><td>165 \u00f7 62<\/td><td>\u2248 2.7 times<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Margin of ocean aragonite saturation to its limit<\/td><td>2.86 minus 2.84<\/td><td>\u2248 0.02<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Planetary Boundaries Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-SR09-PLANETARY \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> as nine linked boundary processes and the mechanisms by which pressure spreads between climate, ocean, land, water and the living biosphere<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which interactions to measure first; explaining how pressure on the Earth system builds and spreads.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>45 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 planetary boundaries annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Planetary Boundaries Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 planetary-boundary\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A precautionary limit on a human pressure on a key Earth-system process, such as climate, biosphere integrity, nutrient flows, freshwater, land, novel entities, aerosols or ocean chemistry, beyond which the risk of\u2026\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Planetary boundary<\/a> status<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next Planetary Health Check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Temperature of 2025<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jan 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>early 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Atmospheric CO2<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>early 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Warming update to COP30<\/td><td>Jan to Aug 2025<\/td><td>Nov 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next WMO update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions outlook<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Nov 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tipping thresholds<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>Sep 2022<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>no update found<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tipping report<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Oct 2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Atlantic circulation studies<\/td><td>2023 to 2025<\/td><td>2023 to 2025<\/td><td>ad hoc<\/td><td>further studies<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Amazon transitions<\/td><td>to 2050 (projection)<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>no update found<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity assessment<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>May 2019<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next IPBES assessment<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Climate<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>dataset agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ocean<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>circulation record<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Land and forests<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>thresholds<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fresh water<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>paper-level values<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nutrients<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>regional values<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chemicals and plastics<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>control variable<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biosphere<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>rates of change<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ozone and aerosols<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>regional detail<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Boundary control-variable values read from the primary report<\/td><td>Planetary Health Check 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>values come from a public dashboard page; the report itself was not opened and its page shows no explicit date<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Interaction strengths between boundaries<\/td><td>Earth-system modelling studies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>no consolidated quantification found<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Observed strength of the Atlantic overturning circulation over a long record<\/td><td>ocean observing programmes<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>direct records are short and studies disagree<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Regional thresholds for Amazon and ice-sheet tipping<\/td><td>Global Tipping Points Report full text<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>only a press release was opened for the report; the journal article is paywalled<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPCC Sixth Assessment figures from the report text<\/td><td>IPCC Synthesis Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the report page returned an access error; no figure is used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Green water boundary values from the paper<\/td><td>Wang-Erlandsson et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>only the record was read, with no abstract; values come from the dashboard<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Control variable for novel entities<\/td><td>Persson et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the authors name data gaps and propose several candidates; none is agreed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Carbon Budget 2025 headline numbers<\/td><td>Global Carbon Budget 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the page gave only a 1.1% projected rise in fossil emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cost of tipping-point impacts on one basis<\/td><td>integrated assessment studies<\/td><td>no consolidated series retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National and company downscaling of boundaries<\/td><td>national environment ministries and target-setting bodies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs beyond monitoring and policy<\/td><td>ministries, agencies, observing programmes<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agreement between warming datasets on one baseline<\/td><td>Copernicus, WMO and the indicators study<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>datasets use different methods and periods; not reconciled here<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by Planetary Boundaries Science with a named author team. Annual. Role: binds SYS-001. Coverage: global, nine boundaries. The publication page and a status dashboard were read; the report was not opened.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR09-001<\/h3><p>Planetary Health Check 2025 publication page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the University of Exeter with partners. Periodic. Role: binds CLI-005. Coverage: global tipping elements. A release page was read; the full report was not opened.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR09-002<\/h3><p>Global Tipping Points Report 2025, release page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR09-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR09-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>nine boundaries, one or two variables each<\/td><td>selected tipping elements<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>about days after a stated cut-off<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>count changed from six to seven in two years<\/td><td>new assessment each few years<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>control variables listed<\/td><td>expert synthesis with ranges<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>published method papers<\/td><td>expert authors from many institutions<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Planetary Health Check<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>: control-variable tables in the report<\/li><li>Tipping Points Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>: threshold tables in the full report<\/li><li>Copernicus<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>: monthly bulletins for 2026<\/li><li>NOAA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>: 2026 monthly means<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>AMOC<\/td><td>Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CO2<\/td><td>carbon dioxide<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CTP<\/td><td>climate <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h28\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.climate-state.abrupt-regime-shift\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Climate-state shifts\" data-td=\"A threshold crossing in a large climate-system component, such as an ocean circulation or a rainforest, that changes regional climate quickly and may not reverse.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H28\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">tipping point<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ECMWF<\/td><td>European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GMST<\/td><td>global mean surface temperature<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPBES<\/td><td>Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPCC<\/td><td>Intergovernmental Panel on <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NDC<\/td><td>nationally determined contribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NOAA<\/td><td>US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ppm<\/td><td>parts per million<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNEP<\/td><td>United Nations Environment Programme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WMO<\/td><td>World Meteorological Organization<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-SR09-CMP-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Regional notes<\/td><td>regional Earth-system cards<\/td><td>WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: boundary transgression<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>a control variable that has passed the limit set for its <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 planetary-boundary\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A precautionary limit on a human pressure on a key Earth-system process, such as climate, biosphere integrity, nutrient flows, freshwater, land, novel entities, aerosols or ocean chemistry, beyond which the risk of\u2026\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">planetary boundary<\/a><\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>the unit of each control variable, for example ppm or Tg a year<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>comparison of the current value with the limit in the framework<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>Planetary Health Check 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup> and boundary status dashboard<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>limits carry ranges, and some margins are very small<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>a crossed boundary is not a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h28\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.climate-state.abrupt-regime-shift\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Climate-state shifts\" data-td=\"A threshold crossing in a large climate-system component, such as an ocean circulation or a rainforest, that changes regional climate quickly and may not reverse.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H28\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">tipping point<\/a>; it marks rising risk<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">ocean acidification<\/a> near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rocha, J.C., Peterson, G., Bodin, O. and Levin, S., Cascading regime shifts within and across scales, Science 362, 1379 to 1383, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boulton, C.A., Lenton, T.M. and Boers, N., Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s, Nature <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 12, 271 to 278, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al., A <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 planetary-boundary\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A precautionary limit on a human pressure on a key Earth-system process, such as climate, biosphere integrity, nutrient flows, freshwater, land, novel entities, aerosols or ocean chemistry, beyond which the risk of\u2026\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">planetary boundary<\/a> for green water, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3(6), 380 to 392, 2022 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities, Environmental Science and Technology 56(3), 1510 to 1521, 2022 (abstract read). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Science Based Targets Network, Science-Based Targets for Nature: Initial Guidance for Business, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m\u00b2 for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-ca-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>18 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Planetary boundaries transgressed<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">7<\/span><\/td><td>of 9<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global temperature above pre-industrial<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.47<\/span><\/td><td>degrees C<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global temperature, January to August<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.42<\/span><\/td><td>degrees C<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global CO2 annual mean<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">425.62<\/span><\/td><td>ppm<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global CO2, WMO figure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">423.9<\/span><\/td><td>ppm<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate boundary value, CO2<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">350<\/span><\/td><td>ppm<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nitrogen flow against limit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">165 against 62<\/span><\/td><td>Tg N a year<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Phosphorus flow against limit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">18.2 against 6.2<\/span><\/td><td>Tg P a year<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Aragonite saturation against limit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.84 against 2.86<\/span><\/td><td>\u03a9<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Reef central threshold estimate<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.2<\/span><\/td><td>degrees C<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Greenland ice sheet central threshold<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 1.5<\/span><\/td><td>degrees C<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Projected warming, current policies<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">up to 2.8<\/span><\/td><td>degrees C<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h11\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.coastal.sea-level-rise\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Coastal and sea-level hazards\" data-td=\"A long-term rise of mean sea level that raises the baseline for floods, erosion and saltwater intrusion.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H11\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Sea-level rise<\/a> rate<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">4.1<\/span><\/td><td>mm a year<\/td><td>2016 to 2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Earth energy imbalance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">0.89<\/span><\/td><td>W per m\u00b2<\/td><td>2005 to 2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Species threatened with extinction<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 1<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0APlanetary%20boundaries%20transgressed%2C7%2Cof%209%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AGlobal%20temperature%20above%20pre-industrial%2C1.47%2Cdegrees%20C%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B8%5D%0A%22Global%20temperature%2C%20January%20to%20August%22%2C1.42%2Cdegrees%20C%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0AGlobal%20CO2%20annual%20mean%2C425.62%2Cppm%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0A%22Global%20CO2%2C%20WMO%20figure%22%2C423.9%2Cppm%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0A%22Climate%20boundary%20value%2C%20CO2%22%2C350%2Cppm%2Cframework%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0ANitrogen%20flow%20against%20limit%2C165%20against%2062%2CTg%20N%20a%20year%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0APhosphorus%20flow%20against%20limit%2C18.2%20against%206.2%2CTg%20P%20a%20year%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0AAragonite%20saturation%20against%20limit%2C2.84%20against%202.86%2C%CE%A9%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0AReef%20central%20threshold%20estimate%2C1.2%2Cdegrees%20C%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0AGreenland%20ice%20sheet%20central%20threshold%2C%E2%89%88%201.5%2Cdegrees%20C%2C2022%2CREPORTED%2C%5B6%5D%0A%22Projected%20warming%2C%20current%20policies%22%2Cup%20to%202.8%2Cdegrees%20C%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B14%5D%0ASea-level%20rise%20rate%2C4.1%2Cmm%20a%20year%2C2016%20to%202025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0AEarth%20energy%20imbalance%2C0.89%2CW%20per%20m%C2%B2%2C2005%20to%202024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B13%5D%0ASpecies%20threatened%20with%20extinction%2C%E2%89%88%201%2Cmillion%2C2019%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Strategic%20Systems%20Report%202026%3A%20Planetary%20Boundaries%20and%20Earth-System%20Tipping%20Risk%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Planetary%20boundaries%20transgressed%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%227%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22of%209%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20temperature%20above%20pre-industrial%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.47%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22degrees%20C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20temperature%2C%20January%20to%20August%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.42%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22degrees%20C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20CO2%20annual%20mean%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22425.62%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ppm%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B10%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20CO2%2C%20WMO%20figure%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22423.9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ppm%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Climate%20boundary%20value%2C%20CO2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22350%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ppm%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22framework%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Nitrogen%20flow%20against%20limit%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22165%20against%2062%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Tg%20N%20a%20year%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Phosphorus%20flow%20against%20limit%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2218.2%20against%206.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Tg%20P%20a%20year%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Aragonite%20saturation%20against%20limit%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222.84%20against%202.86%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%CE%A9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Reef%20central%20threshold%20estimate%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22degrees%20C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Greenland%20ice%20sheet%20central%20threshold%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%201.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22degrees%20C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B6%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Projected%20warming%2C%20current%20policies%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22up%20to%202.8%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22degrees%20C%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B14%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Sea-level%20rise%20rate%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%224.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22mm%20a%20year%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222016%20to%202025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Earth%20energy%20imbalance%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%220.89%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22W%20per%20m%C2%B2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222005%20to%202024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B13%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Species%20threatened%20with%20extinction%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%201%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222019%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Values are rounded as published. Observed values, assessment ranges and projections are different kinds of number and are not added. Two sources give different CO2 values for 2024 and are both shown. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SYS<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">AIC<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Planetary Health Check 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>research consortium<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>boundary status<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Earth beyond six of nine boundaries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>earlier count<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Climate Highlights<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU climate service<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>temperature<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WMO update for COP30<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>warming, sea level<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NOAA annual CO2<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>carbon dioxide<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Carbon Budget<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>research consortium<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024 to 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>emissions and budget<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Tipping Points Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>research consortium<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>tipping thresholds<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Armstrong McKay et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>threshold ranges<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPBES Global Assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental panel<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>biodiversity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNEP Emissions Gap Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>projected warming<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td>not bound here; regional chapter to come<\/td><td>carbon, forests<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>Amazon forest exposed to compounding disturbance<\/td><td>forest, water<\/td><td>Amazon transitions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>Atlantic circulation weakening would change winters<\/td><td>ocean, climate<\/td><td>Tipping Points Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>; AMOC studies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>not bound here; regional chapter to come<\/td><td>carbon, permafrost<\/td><td>tipping reassessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td>not bound here; regional chapter to come<\/td><td>water, heat<\/td><td>safe and just boundaries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>monsoon <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> linked to the Atlantic circulation<\/td><td>water, food<\/td><td>Tipping Points Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>air pollution above the proposed just limit for most people<\/td><td>air, water<\/td><td>safe and just boundaries<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>not bound here; regional chapter to come<\/td><td>carbon, ocean<\/td><td>Planetary Health Check<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>warm-water reefs and fisheries<\/td><td>ocean, food<\/td><td>Tipping Points Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>warm-water reefs and island coasts<\/td><td>ocean, coast<\/td><td>Tipping Points Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Regional card: Amazon forest system<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">region<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">forest<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">moisture recycling<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">tipping<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>forest, water, climate, food<\/dd><dt>Defining study<\/dt><dd>transitions study of 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>BIO \u2192 WAT \u2192 FOO; CLI \u2192 BIO<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>protection and restoration targets adopted<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>regional thresholds; rates of change<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>P-01 \u00b7 P-05<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The study estimates that by 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests will be exposed to compounding disturbances [19].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">FOREST<\/h3><p>Compounding disturbance<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Forest loss can weaken the recycling of moisture that produces rain; the green water boundary is transgressed globally [3] [23].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">WATER<\/h3><p>Moisture recycling<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The estimate is a range and attributes no event to any actor [19] [37].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">LEARNING<\/h3><p>A range, not a date<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Regional cards are generated with the regional Baseline Editions. The Amazon card is shown first because its transition study is published.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the planetary boundaries edition through the environment chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>ECMWF and Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h11\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.coastal.sea-level-rise\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Coastal and sea-level hazards\" data-td=\"A long-term rise of mean sea level that raises the baseline for floods, erosion and saltwater intrusion.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H11\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">sea-level rise<\/a> 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-warming\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The rise in global average surface temperature relative to a pre-industrial baseline, the headline indicator of human-driven climate change.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global warming<\/a> could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth System<\/a> Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m\u00b2 for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-09-cb-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\">Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>14 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>45 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h12\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.ocean-state.ocean-acidification\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Ocean-state extremes\" data-td=\"A slow drop in sea-water pH as the ocean absorbs carbon dioxide, weakening organisms that build shells and skeletons.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H12\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">ocean acidification<\/a> near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Planetary boundaries (overview page: four crossed in 2015, six in 2023, seven now). Stockholm University, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Safe and just <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 earth-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The integrated set of physical, chemical, biological and human processes that regulate the state of the planet, studied as one coupled system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Earth system<\/a> boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5\u00b0C <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-warming\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The rise in global average surface temperature relative to a pre-industrial baseline, the headline indicator of human-driven climate change.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">global warming<\/a> could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>ECMWF and Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m\u00b2 for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Steffen, W., Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(33), 8252 to 8259, 2018 (abstract read). Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Tipping elements in the Earth\u2019s climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(6), 1786 to 1793, 2008 (abstract read). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities, Environmental Science and Technology 56(3), 1510 to 1521, 2022 (abstract read). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al., A planetary boundary for green water, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3(6), 380 to 392, 2022 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Steffen, W. et al., Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet, Science 347(6223), 2015 (abstract read). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Lenton, T.M., Rockstr\u00f6m, J., Gaffney, O. et al., Climate tipping points: too risky to bet against, Nature 575, 592 to 595, 2019 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., A safe operating space for humanity, Nature 461, 472 to 475, 2009 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Global Commission on the Economics of Water (ed.), Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action, release page of 17 March 2023 (about 7% more atmospheric moisture per degree C of warming). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>WMO and UNEP (eds.), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022 (assessment page read; finalised 25 to 29 July 2022; no figure taken from it). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a> under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted 2015, cited from memory; the page returned only headings. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987) and the Kigali Amendment (2016), cited from memory. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 1987. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boers, N., Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Nature Climate Change 11, 680 to 688, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wunderling, N. et al., Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Earth System Dynamics 12, 601 to 619, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rocha, J.C., Peterson, G., Bodin, O. and Levin, S., Cascading regime shifts within and across scales, Science 362, 1379 to 1383, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Scheffer, M. et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461, 53 to 59, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boulton, C.A., Lenton, T.M. and Boers, N., Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s, Nature Climate Change 12, 271 to 278, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hansen, J.E. et al., Global warming in the pipeline, Oxford Open Climate Change 3(1), kgad008, 2023, cited from memory; the paper\u2019s view on climate sensitivity differs from the IPCC range. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rockstr\u00f6m, J. et al., Identifying a safe and just corridor for people and the planet, Earth\u2019s Future 9, e2020EF001866, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1991 on nature restoration, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022\/2464 on corporate sustainability reporting, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Science Based Targets Network, Science-Based Targets for Nature: Initial Guidance for Business, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Global Chemicals Outlook II: From Legacies to Innovative Solutions, 2019, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, and ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to climate change, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023, Nature 642(8068), 636 to 643, 2025 (authors not recorded here; bibliographic record and abstract read; no figure used). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 5<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Strategic Systems Series SR-09<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 planetary boundaries edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-09-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SR-09<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-09-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-STR-SR-09-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Planetary%20Boundaries%20and%20Earth-System%20Tipping%20Risk\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Planetary%20Boundaries%20and%20Earth-System%20Tipping%20Risk&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Planetary%20Boundaries%20and%20Earth-System%20Tipping%20Risk\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Planetary%20Boundaries%20and%20Earth-System%20Tipping%20Risk\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Planetary%20Boundaries%20and%20Earth-System%20Tipping%20Risk\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Strategic Systems Report 2026: Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-09&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-09&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-09-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-09-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>SR-09 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-09 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Strategic Systems<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-09\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. 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