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\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\"><style>#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-11-full.nxe{display:block;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:1180px;margin:0 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svg{display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-11-full.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-11-full.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-sr-11-full.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Strategic Systems Report 2026: Cities, Demography and Human Systems<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SR-11<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Strategic Systems<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Cities, Demography and Human Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. People and places change together<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. A heatwave that meets an ageing, dense and informally housed district<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>8 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> are the people, places and services that every other system depends on. The 2025 evidence shows the same mechanisms at work in very different places. The world had 8.2 billion people in 2024 and the UN projects a peak of around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Global fertility stands at 2.25 births per woman, down from 3.31 in 1990, and 63 countries have already passed their population peak<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. In 2025 cities hold 45 per cent of the world\u2019s people, towns 36 per cent and rural areas 19 per cent, and cities are projected to add 986 million residents by 2050<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. About 1.12 billion people live in slums or informal settlements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. China recorded 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>, and Japan recorded 686,061 births in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>. Heat killed about 546,000 people a year in 2012 to 2021<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>. This baseline reads these facts as mechanisms, not as a list. It ranks no country or city, forecasts no outcome and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes: falling fertility, longer lives, migration and urban growth recur across regions.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Do human systems have common causes of change?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Through housing, health, work and local finance, which share the same people and places.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How do pressures spread?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes: cities hold 45 per cent of people and add 986 million by 2050.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is the world still urbanising?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">No: more than 3,000 cities lost population from 2015 to 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is every place growing?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 1.12 billion people live in slums or informal settlements.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How large is informal housing?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">It adds care, health and fiscal load, and heat risk for older people.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Does ageing change the picture?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 546,000 deaths a year, with older adults most exposed.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What does heat add?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/energy-nexus\/\" data-tal=\"Energy Nexus\">heatwave<\/a> that meets an ageing, informally housed district with a power loss. SCN-SR11-HEAT-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-007<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">China recorded 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025, so the population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-fig1-t\">China births and deaths, 2025 (million)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Deaths<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">11.31<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Births<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"70.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">7.92<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Natural decrease (births minus deaths)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"30.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">3.39<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>. The third bar is a Nexus derivation, method (1).<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">A shrinking population is a planning fact for housing, schools, care and public finance, and it arrives at different speeds in different places. The UN counts 63 countries or areas whose population has already peaked<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>world population, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.25<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">births per woman<\/span><p>global fertility, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">986<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>city residents added by 2050<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>slums and informal settlements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">546,000<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths a year<\/span><p>heat-related, 2012 to 2021<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&lt;20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">per cent<\/span><p>share of city climate finance need met<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading people and places as one moving system.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people these changes arrive as a hot flat, a long wait for care, a rent that rises or a school that closes.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Cities receive less than a fifth of the finance they need for climate action, and informal housing is large.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Human-system risk is well described country by country and thinly measured within cities.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the 2026 state of the world\u2019s cities, demography and human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a population forecast, a migration policy position, a city league table or an assessment of any government, city or community. Population policy, planning and service delivery rest with national and local authorities.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 human systems edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">People and places change together<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>10 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> risk concentrated?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry human systems shocks into other systems?<\/li><li>Which human systems capabilities hold under compound stress?<\/li><li>What must 2027 evidence measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five mechanism chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Demography is usually reported by country and urbanisation by city. The 2024 and 2025 evidence reads them as one moving system. People are fewer in some places and more in others, older almost everywhere, and more of them live in cities and towns<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The causes repeat. Fertility has fallen from 3.31 to 2.25 births per woman since 1990<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Life expectancy reached 73.3 years in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Cities are projected to add 986 million residents by 2050, while more than 3,000 cities lost population from 2015 to 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. China recorded fewer births than deaths in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>, and so did Japan in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The physical and social base is uneven. About 1.12 billion people live in slums or informal settlements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. About two billion people worked informally in 2016<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. Cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for climate action<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The edition therefore asks the same four questions of every change: what was the common cause, how did it spread, what was shared, and what threshold was crossed. It forecasts no outcome and ranks no place.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-fig1-t\">Where do people live? Share of world population, 2025, per cent<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Cities hold the largest share of people, towns more than a third and rural areas under a fifth. National definitions of urban give 58 per cent, so the measure matters<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Cities<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">45<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Towns<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"80.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">36<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Rural areas<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"42.2\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">19<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">45<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">per cent<\/span><p>in cities, up from 20 per cent in 1950<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">36<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">per cent<\/span><p>in towns<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">19<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">per cent<\/span><p>in rural areas<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">58<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">per cent<\/span><p>urban on national definitions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The human systems-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for their human systems content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">cooling \u00b7 pumping<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation \u00b7 processing<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">safe supply \u00b7 sanitation<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">flows<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 treatment<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">cold chain \u00b7 processing<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">cooling \u00b7 hospitals \u00b7 care<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land use<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">withdrawals<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bioenergy<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">green space and drainage<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">shade and cooling<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">heat relief<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 HLT \u2190 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/energy-nexus\/\" data-tal=\"Energy Nexus\">heatwave<\/a> and a power loss reach older residents and hospitals together.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> heat deaths<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">URB \u2192 DEV<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Fast city growth outpaces services and adds informal housing.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> UN DESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup> \u00b7 SDG Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">DEM \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A falling birth count and an ageing structure change the tax and care base.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> China and Japan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Climate risk meets a city finance gap.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> UN-Habitat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">MIG \u2192 URB<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Displaced people move into cities and towns.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> IDMC<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the human systems baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>4 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>10 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-007\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">China recorded 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025, so the population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-fig1-t\">China births and deaths, 2025 (million)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Deaths<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">11.31<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Births<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"70.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">7.92<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Natural decrease (births minus deaths)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"30.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">3.39<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>. The third bar is a Nexus derivation, method (1).<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">A shrinking population is a planning fact for housing, schools, care and public finance, and it arrives at different speeds in different places. The UN counts 63 countries or areas whose population has already peaked<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Births in 2026, marriage numbers, ageing of the workforce and city-level population change would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>DEM<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-001\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The UN projects a world population peak of around 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s, up from 8.2 billion in 2024, and about 10.2 billion by 2100.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-002\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Global fertility stood at 2.25 births per woman in 2024, down from 3.31 in 1990; more than half of countries are below the replacement level of 2.1 and nearly a fifth are below 1.4.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-007\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">China recorded 7.92 million births and 11.31 million deaths in 2025, so the population fell by 3.39 million to 1,404.89 million.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-008\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEM-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Japan recorded 686,061 births and a total fertility rate of 1.15 in 2024, against 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo\u2019s rate was 0.96.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Cities<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-URB-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-URB-003\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-URB-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">In 2025 cities hold 45 per cent of the world\u2019s 8.2 billion people, towns 36 per cent and rural areas 19 per cent; in 1950 cities held 20 per cent.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-URB-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-URB-004\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-URB-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Cities are projected to add 986 million residents by 2050, over half of them in seven countries, while more than 3,000 cities lost population between 2015 and 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>HOU<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HOU-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HOU-005\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HOU-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 1.12 billion people live in slums or informal settlements, roughly one in four urban residents.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>AGE<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AGE-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AGE-006\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AGE-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">By the late 2070s the number of people aged 65 and over is projected to reach 2.2 billion, more than the number of children under 18, and 265 million people will be aged 80 or over by the mid-2030s.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Climate forcing<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\"><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">Heat-related deaths<\/a> averaged about 546,000 a year in 2012 to 2021, up 23 per cent in rate since the 1990s; WHO gives 489,000 a year for 2000 to 2019, with 45 per cent in Asia.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>MIG<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIG-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIG-010\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIG-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Sub-Saharan Africa reached a record 38.8 million internally displaced people at the end of 2024, around 46 per cent of the global total.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.9<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/energy-nexus\/\" data-tal=\"Energy Nexus\">heatwave<\/a> that meets an ageing, dense and informally housed district with a loss of power. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Urban Development overview (page: more than four billion people in cities; nearly 7 in 10 by 2050; about one quarter of urban residents in slums). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DEM \u00b7 Population<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">World population, 2024<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>peak of 10.3 billion projected in the mid-2080s.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>UN DESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">INF \u00b7 Urban<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Share of world population in cities<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">45<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">per cent<\/span><p>36 per cent in towns, 19 per cent rural.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>UN DESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DEV \u00b7 Housing<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People in slums or informal settlements<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>about one in four urban residents.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>SDG Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HLT \u00b7 Ageing<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People aged 65 and over, late 2070s<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>more than the number of children under 18.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>UN DESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CLI \u00b7 Heat<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Heat-related deaths, annual average<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">546,000<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">a year<\/span><p>2012 to 2021; up 23 per cent since the 1990s.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>Lancet Countdown<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Displacement<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Internally displaced in sub-Saharan Africa<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">38.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>about 46 per cent of the global total.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>IDMC<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries human systems risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Cities and towns depend on water services; no consolidated series bound here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Cooling and power demand rise with heat and urban growth; no series bound here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Cities depend on food supply chains and rural areas feed them; rural population peaks in the 2040s<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2194 URB<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Older people face higher heat risk; heat-related mortality among over-65s rose about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT \u2194 DEM<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Urban green space fell from 19.5 per cent in 1990 to 13.9 per cent in 2020<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO \u2192 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>About 546,000 heat deaths a year; one billion people live in areas prone to severe riverine flooding, half of them in cities<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>The core system: 45 per cent of people in cities, built-up area per person up from 43 to 63 square metres in 50 years<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance needed for climate action<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2192 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>National definitions of urban differ; 58 per cent urban on national terms against 81 per cent in cities and towns<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2194 URB<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>No series bound here; the effect of automation on city work is not read in this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Housing and building materials depend on mineral and aggregate supply; no series bound here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Migration and remittance flows link cities across borders; no series bound here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">URB \u2194 TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>people and places couple every sector<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heat, housing and power together<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>water services follow settlement growth<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>growth without services<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>cooling and power demand rise in cities<\/td><td>heat and outage together<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food and agrifood<\/td><td>about 60 per cent of land converted to urban use since 1970 was farmland<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>loss of farmland<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>heat deaths and ageing load on health systems<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heatwaves and care demand<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance and economy<\/td><td>cities receive under 20 per cent of climate finance need<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>adaptation gap<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>slums and informal work concentrate in low-income regions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>service and job gaps<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> about 546,000 a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heat and flood exposure<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>one billion people in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 concurrent-hazards\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Two or more hazards affecting the same area or population at overlapping times, straining response capacity simultaneously.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">concurrent hazards<\/a><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>road traffic deaths about 1.16 million a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>unsafe streets and transit gaps<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>45 per cent of people in cities; 986 million to add by 2050<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>growth, shrinkage and informality<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>green space share fell between 1990 and 2020<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>loss of urban green space<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>settlement and built-up area data underpin city counts<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>definition and resolution gaps<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>no series bound here<\/td><td>data and identity gaps<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>New Urban Agenda adopted in 2016<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>implementation gaps<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>urban scaling and demography science is mature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>data below national scale<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and European Commission (eds.), Cities in the World: A New Perspective on Urbanisation, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2020, with the Degree of Urbanisation method endorsed by the UN Statistical Commission in 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bettencourt, L.M.A. et al., Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M. and Stilianakis, N. (eds.), Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, Publications Office of the European Union, 2018, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c3-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>19 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR11-CLI-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Heat on an ageing and dense population<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>rising heat exposure and an ageing population<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>older residents, informal districts, hospitals<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>low-quality housing, limited cooling, social isolation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>heat action plans; cooling access; community checks<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 HLT, ENE<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR11-DEV-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Informal growth without services<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>city growth of 986 million by 2050<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>slums and informal settlements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>housing, water and transport gaps; flood exposure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>upgrading; land and service planning<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>DEV \u2192 HLT \u2192 FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 10 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR11-DEM-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Shrinking and ageing places with fixed costs<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>births below deaths in China and Japan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>small cities and towns that lost population<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>fixed network costs on a falling base<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>service consolidation; migration; productivity<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>DEM \u2192 FIN \u2192 HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>5 to 10 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-SR11-FIN-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">City finance gap for adaptation<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>under 20 per cent of climate finance need met<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>cities in hazard-prone regions<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>weak own-source revenue; adaptation financed less than mitigation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>municipal finance reform; national transfers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>FIN \u2192 INF \u2192 HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>urban and population goals set in global agreements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>national censuses and UN series; city-level data uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>heat warnings exist in places; no common global practice bound here<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>national urban policies and the Sendai framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>spare health and cooling capacity not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>heat and flood response in many cities; testing uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>priority supply to hospitals and care homes in many <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>; testing uneven<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>recovery after heat and displacement not consolidated here<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>adaptation plans exist but receive less finance than mitigation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>support for older people and informal workers not consolidated<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>under 20 per cent of need met<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>national, local and UN frameworks; cross-border practice uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>gaps in housing and transport<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>care and planning workforce not consolidated<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>demography and urban science mature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate change<\/a>, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>UN-Habitat (ed.), Housing topic page (3 billion people to need adequate housing by 2030; 96,000 units a day; 100 million homeless; one in four in harmful housing). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO (ed.), Decade of Healthy Ageing 2021 to 2030, cited from memory; no figure used. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bettencourt, L.M.A. et al., Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M. and Stilianakis, N. (eds.), Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, Publications Office of the European Union, 2018, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: McGranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B., The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones, Environment and Urbanization 19, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">A heatwave that meets an ageing, dense and informally housed district<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>2 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-SR11-HEAT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a multi-day <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/energy-nexus\/\" data-tal=\"Energy Nexus\">heatwave<\/a> in a dense district with many older residents, informal housing and a partial power loss<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>Europe summer 2022 heat deaths; ageing-related heat mortality trend<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">heat raises illness and death among older residents<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">cooling demand rises and a power loss removes cooling and refrigeration<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">HLT \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">hospital and care costs rise while work hours are lost to heat<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2024<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">DEV \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">informal housing holds heat and limits access to cooling<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">water supply falls or runs on reserves<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">local budgets absorb losses and defer upgrades<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2024<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-SR11-HEAT-01 would travel through Cities, Demography and Human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a>&#8216;s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Climate to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Heat raises illness and death among older residents. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-11, scenario SCN-SR11-HEAT-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Energy to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Cooling demand rises and a power loss removes cooling and refrigeration. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-11, scenario SCN-SR11-HEAT-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Health to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Hospital and care costs rise while work hours are lost to heat. Analogue or source: 2024.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-11, scenario SCN-SR11-HEAT-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Development to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Informal housing holds heat and limits access to cooling. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-11, scenario SCN-SR11-HEAT-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Water to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Water supply falls or runs on reserves. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-11, scenario SCN-SR11-HEAT-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Finance to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Local budgets absorb losses and defer upgrades. Analogue or source: 2024.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition SR-11, scenario SCN-SR11-HEAT-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026, scenario SCN-SR11-HEAT-01<\/a> (2026); Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate change<\/a>, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c5-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The global baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>15 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>36 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading people and places as one moving system. Common causes recur across regions, pressures spread through shared housing, health and finance, and thresholds such as heat limits and service capacity decide outcomes. Evidence is strongest at national scale and weakest within cities.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">DEM-001 \u00b7 URB-003 \u00b7 CLI-009 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people these changes arrive as a hot flat, a long wait for care, a rent that rises or a school that closes. The baseline asks that public debate treat population change as an ordinary planning fact and keep older people and informal residents in view.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">DEM-002 \u00b7 HOU-005 \u00b7 AGE-006<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Cities receive less than a fifth of the finance they need for climate action, and informal housing is large<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">HOU-005 \u00b7 FIN-011<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Human-system risk is well described country by country and thinly measured within cities. The 2027 programme should bind neighbourhood data, test the heat, age and housing compound, and map service thresholds before the next large event.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 H-01 \u00b7 H-04<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability exist?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests show?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What changed in the year, and what renews?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> strategic desks<\/td><td>human systems chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness<\/td><td>strategic editorial board<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard is a decision of the competent standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Fertility, ageing, migration and urban growth change the same households and neighbourhoods. Treating demography and cities apart understates how a change in one becomes a change in all. This edition reads the system.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>People and places are one system<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Under national definitions 58 per cent of people are urban. Under one harmonised method 81 per cent live in cities and towns. The measure shapes policy, so the baseline reports both.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Counting decides what is seen<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Some countries and thousands of cities are losing people while others add hundreds of millions. Planning for one pattern alone fails the other.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Shrinking is as real as growing<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Heat deaths among people over 65 rose by about 85 per cent over two decades. Ageing and warming interact in dense cities, and the interaction is thinly measured.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Heat meets age<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 human systems readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 human systems readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 global-risk\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Nexus risk class: a risk whose hazard, consequences or causal chain crosses national borders and acts at continental or planetary scale, so that no single country can assess or manage it alone.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskforum.com\/glossary\/global-risk\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Forum glossary\">Global risk<\/a> state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 6 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>national chapters in preparation<\/td><td>national chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments and published guidance that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENDORSED<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>New Urban Agenda<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN Habitat III<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2016<\/td><td>sustainable urban development<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sustainable Development Goal 11<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED<\/td><td>cities and human settlements<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> 2015 to 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNDRR<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2015<\/td><td>disaster risk in cities<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO 37120 city indicators<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>city services and quality of life<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Degree of Urbanisation method<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN Statistical Commission<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ENDORSED 2020<\/td><td>harmonised city and town definitions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2018<\/td><td>migration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Convention relating to the Status of Refugees<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>refugee protection<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kampala Convention<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>African Union<\/td><td>Africa<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>internally displaced people<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Decade of Healthy Ageing 2021 to 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WHO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2020<\/td><td>healthy ageing<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>UN DESA published World Urbanization Prospects 2025 with the Degree of Urbanization on 18 November 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The 2024 World Population Prospects set the peak at 10.3 billion in the mid-2080s<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>WHO dated its heat and health fact sheet 31 July 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>National adoption of harmonised city and town definitions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Implementation of the New Urban Agenda and national urban policies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Uptake of heat action planning in cities<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the world\u2019s cities, demography and human systems and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>UN population and urban series; national statistics offices; peer-reviewed demography and urban science; health and displacement reports<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Seto, G\u00fcneralp and Hutyra<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2012<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>urban land expansion<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bettencourt et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2007<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>urban scaling<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lutz et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>book<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>population scenarios<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>McGranahan, Balk and Anderson<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2007<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>coastal exposure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tuholske et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>urban heat exposure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPCC Working Group II, chapter 6<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>cities and settlements<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional flagships<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>World Population Prospects 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN DESA<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>population and fertility<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Urbanization Prospects 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN DESA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>cities, towns, rural<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Cities Report 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN-Habitat<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>city climate finance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of World Population 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNFPA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>fertility aspirations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Migration Report 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IOM<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>migration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Fertility 2021 to 2100<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>GBD Fertility Collaborators<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>fertility forecast<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Statistics, housing and displacement<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SDG Report 2025, Goal 11<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>slums, green space, floods<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Goal 11 facts and figures<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN DESA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>slums, housing cost<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Urban development overview<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>urban economy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Informal economy report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ILO<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>informal work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Housing topic page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN-Habitat<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>housing need<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Report on Internal Displacement 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IDMC<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>displacement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Trends 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNHCR<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.mass-displacement\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Large numbers of people forced to leave their homes by conflict, disaster or collapse, straining host areas and services.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">forced displacement<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Groundswell<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>internal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h116\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.demographic.climate-mobility\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Population structure and movement\" data-td=\"Movement of people away from places made unliveable by sea-level rise, heat, drought or land loss, and the stranding of those too poor to move.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H116\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">climate migration<\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards, agreements and national releases<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Statistical communique on 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>National Bureau of Statistics of China<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>births and deaths<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Vital statistics 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Japan health ministry<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>births and fertility<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Quarterly births<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Statistics Korea<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>fertility<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Demography of Europe<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Eurostat<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>EU population<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lancet Countdown 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Lancet Countdown and WHO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>heat mortality<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat and health fact sheet<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WHO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>heat deaths<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ambient air quality fact sheet<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WHO<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>air pollution deaths<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Population growth is slowing and ageing is advancing in most regions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>More people live in cities than in towns or rural areas<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Informal housing is large and concentrated in lower-income regions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How low fertility will go and whether policy can raise it<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How many people will move to cities because of climate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How heat and ageing combine at neighbourhood scale<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37120:2018, Sustainable cities and communities, indicators for city services and quality of life, with the related ISO 37122 and 37123, cited from memory; the ISO page returned an access error. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and European Commission (eds.), Cities in the World: A New Perspective on Urbanisation, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2020, with the Degree of Urbanisation method endorsed by the UN Statistical Commission in 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, 1951, and its 1967 Protocol, cited from memory. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 1951. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Union, Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention), 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO (ed.), Decade of Healthy Ageing 2021 to 2030, cited from memory; no figure used. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate change<\/a>, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Seto, K.C., G\u00fcneralp, B. and Hutyra, L.R., Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, 2012, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bettencourt, L.M.A. et al., Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M. and Stilianakis, N. (eds.), Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, Publications Office of the European Union, 2018, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: McGranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B., The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones, Environment and Urbanization 19, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Tuholske, C. et al., Global urban population exposure to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/hydrometeorological-hazard-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/energy-nexus\/\" data-tal=\"Energy Nexus\">extreme heat<\/a>, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(41), 2021, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, chapter 6, Cities, settlements and key infrastructure, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>UNFPA (ed.), State of World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis (survey of 14 countries; 39 per cent cite financial limitations; nearly 20 per cent expect to have fewer children than they want). United Nations Population Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IOM (ed.), World Migration Report 2024. International Organization for Migration, Geneva, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators, Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950 to 2021, with forecasts to 2100, The Lancet 403, 2057 to 2099, 2024 (global rate 2.23 in 2021, about 1.83 in 2050 and about 1.59 in 2100), taken from search-result summaries; the journal page returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Urban Development overview (page: more than four billion people in cities; nearly 7 in 10 by 2050; about one quarter of urban residents in slums). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>UN-Habitat (ed.), Housing topic page (3 billion people to need adequate housing by 2030; 96,000 units a day; 100 million homeless; one in four in harmful housing). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends Report 2024 (publication record, 16 June 2025; states a new record by the end of 2024; no totals on the page read). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Clement, V. et al., Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h116\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.demographic.climate-mobility\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Population structure and movement\" data-td=\"Movement of people away from places made unliveable by sea-level rise, heat, drought or land loss, and the stranding of those too poor to move.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H116\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">Climate Migration<\/a>, World Bank, 2021 (up to 216 million internal climate migrants by 2050), taken from search-result summaries; the World Bank pages returned not found. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Statistics Korea (ed.), first quarter 2025 births (total fertility rate 0.82 against 0.77 a year earlier; 65,022 births), read in a news report of 28 May 2025; the agency release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition (EU population 451 million on 1 January 2025; about 3.6 million births in 2024; fertility 1.34; 22 per cent aged 65 and over). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Ambient (outdoor) air quality and health, fact sheet (99 per cent of people above guideline levels; 4.2 million deaths; 2019 data). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics Korea (ed.), 2024 and 2025 birth statistics (total fertility rate 0.75 in 2024 and 0.80 in 2025, preliminary), taken from search-result summaries of news reports. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 human systems agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 human systems edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>5 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">H-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/energy-nexus\/\" data-tal=\"Energy Nexus\">heatwave<\/a> that meets an ageing, informally housed district and a power loss spread through health, work and finance at the same time?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR11-HEAT-01 \u00b7 heat, age and housing compound; first output: exposure analysis for six regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">H-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which cities and towns combine fast growth with thin services, and where are they?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR11-GRW-02 \u00b7 growth and service gap; first output: city and town register.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">H-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do shrinking and ageing places keep up services with a falling tax base?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR11-SHR-03 \u00b7 shrinking places; first output: service-cost table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">H-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How much housing is informal, how fast is it changing and where is it most exposed to hazards?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR11-HOU-04 \u00b7 housing and exposure; first output: housing exposure overlay.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">H-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do fertility, housing cost and work interact in low-fertility countries?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-SR11-FER-05 \u00b7 fertility and household formation; first output: comparison note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">H-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which governments publish city-level demographic data on a comparable basis?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">H-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do displacement and migration change the size and age of receiving cities?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">H-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which human-system capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR11-HEAT-01<\/span><\/td><td>Heat, age and housing compound<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>H-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR11-GRW-02<\/span><\/td><td>Growth and service gap<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>H-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR11-SHR-03<\/span><\/td><td>Shrinking places<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>H-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR11-HOU-04<\/span><\/td><td>Housing and exposure<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>H-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-SR11-FER-05<\/span><\/td><td>Fertility and household formation<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>H-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-SR11-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Heat, age and housing Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>H-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> edition reads national demographic and city chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National demographic and city chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">population and urban reading in each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">IN PREPARATION \u00b7 national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Sector editions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">cities, health, development, finance<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 sector Baseline Editions<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Human systems model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the global system of people and places<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">SR-02 lifelines \u00b7 SR-07 food, water and energy \u00b7 SR-08 health security<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Human Systems Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE DRAFT \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the human systems candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the human systems candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-SR11-2027-01 \u00b7 Heat, age and housing Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead: drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>DEM-001 \u00b7 population peak<\/td><td>national demographic chapters<\/td><td>population baseline<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>URB-003 \u00b7 city and town share<\/td><td>INI-SR11-GRW-02<\/td><td>growth and service gap<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>URB-004 \u00b7 city growth and decline<\/td><td>INI-SR11-SHR-03<\/td><td>shrinking places<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HOU-005 \u00b7 informal housing<\/td><td>INI-SR11-HOU-04<\/td><td>housing and exposure<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DEM-007 \u00b7 births and deaths<\/td><td>INI-SR11-FER-05<\/td><td>fertility and household formation<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CLI-009 \u00b7 heat deaths<\/td><td>INI-SR11-HEAT-01 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td>heat, age and housing compound<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MIG-010 \u00b7 displacement<\/td><td>sector editions<\/td><td>movement into cities<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-SR11-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CODES ARE NOT JOINS<\/p><p>Series codes in this edition (SR-11 and its relatives) are Reports codes. Codes in other indices can look alike. This edition makes no join on a code alone: a join needs a registry record that names both subjects.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Population estimates and projections<\/td><td>UN DESA Population Division<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><td>DEM-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Urbanisation series<\/td><td>UN DESA<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>URB-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National vital statistics<\/td><td>national statistics offices<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>DEM-007<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG database<\/td><td>UN Statistics Division<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>HOU-005<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat and health indicators<\/td><td>Lancet Countdown<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI-009<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Internal displacement data<\/td><td>IDMC<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>MIG-010<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU demography<\/td><td>Eurostat<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>DEM-002<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-SR11-001<\/td><td>City growth of 986 million to 2050<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>URB \u00b7 DEV<\/td><td>risk object RSK-SR11-DEV-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR11-002<\/td><td>Births below deaths in China and Japan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>DEM \u00b7 FIN<\/td><td>research question H-03<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-SR11-003<\/td><td>Rising heat mortality among older people<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 HLT<\/td><td>risk object RSK-SR11-CLI-001<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate change<\/a>, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 heat-related deaths a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c7-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>11 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Common causes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One cause can change many human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> at once: falling fertility, longer lives, migration, urban growth or heat. The shared cause matters more than the sector.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.25<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">births per woman<\/span><p>global fertility, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">73.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">years<\/span><p>global life expectancy, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">546,000<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths a year<\/span><p>heat-related, 2012 to 2021<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Falling fertility<\/td><td>global rate down from 3.31 in 1990 to 2.25 in 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Longer lives<\/td><td>life expectancy up 8.4 years since 1995<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Urban growth<\/td><td>cities add 986 million residents by 2050<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat<\/td><td>heat deaths among over-65s up about 85 per cent in two decades<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>DEM \u2192 HLT ageing<\/li><li>URB \u2192 DEV growth<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 HLT heat<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>common cause tagging of local change<\/li><li>fertility drivers on one basis<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The next population revision; national birth data for 2026; Lancet Countdown updates; the next SDG report.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes causes recorded in public sources. It forecasts no outcome and assesses no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Domino effects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A change in one human system loads the next. Fewer births reach schools, then the workforce, then care and public finance.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7.92<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>births in China, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">11.31<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>deaths in China, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1,605,298<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p>in Japan, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Births to schools<\/td><td>smaller birth cohorts reach schools and later the workforce<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ageing to care<\/td><td>people aged 80 and over reach 265 million by the mid-2030s<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat to health<\/td><td>older people face higher heat mortality<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Housing to health<\/td><td>informal settlements can be hotter than other urban areas<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>DEM \u2192 HLT \u2192 FIN<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 HLT<\/li><li>DEV \u2192 HLT<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>timing of service demand shifts<\/li><li>care capacity data<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Birth and marriage counts; school and care enrolment; hospital admissions in heatwaves.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes dependency sequences. It assesses no government and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Inter-systemic feedbacks<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> feed back on what they depend on. Cities draw people and food, rural areas lose young people, and heat pushes up the demand that strains the grid.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">19<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">per cent<\/span><p>of people live in rural areas, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">60<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">per cent<\/span><p>of land converted to urban use since 1970 was farmland<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">63<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">square metres<\/span><p>built-up area per person in 2025, up from 43 in 1975<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Urban growth to farmland<\/td><td>built-up area grew almost twice as fast as population<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rural out-migration<\/td><td>ageing and out-migration press on rural areas<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat to energy<\/td><td>cooling demand rises with heat<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance feedback<\/td><td>a finance gap delays adaptation and raises later losses<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>URB \u2192 FOO<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 ENE<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 INF<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>rural to urban flows by age<\/li><li>cooling demand series<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Land conversion data; rural population peak in the 2040s; city adaptation finance.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes feedback loops. It assesses no city or government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Shared vulnerabilities<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Different human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> share the same weak points: informal housing, heat exposure, flood-prone land and thin city finance.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>in slums or informal settlements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>in areas prone to severe riverine flooding, half in cities<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&lt;20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">per cent<\/span><p>of city climate finance need met<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Informal housing<\/td><td>about one in four urban residents<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Flood-prone land<\/td><td>one billion people in riverine flood-prone areas<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Informal work<\/td><td>about 61 per cent of workers informal in 2016<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Unsafe streets<\/td><td>road traffic deaths about 1.16 million a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>DEV \u2192 HLT housing<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 DEV flood<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 INF city finance<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>neighbourhood-scale exposure data<\/li><li>informal work in cities<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Housing upgrading programmes; flood and heat plans; city finance reforms.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes shared weak points in public sources. It assesses no city and names no community.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Thresholds and tipping<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A human system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Replacement fertility, service capacity and household cooling access are such thresholds.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">births per woman<\/span><p>replacement level<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">63<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">countries or areas<\/span><p>with a population that has already peaked<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">58<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">per cent<\/span><p>urban on national definitions, against 81 per cent harmonised<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Replacement fertility<\/td><td>more than half of countries are below 2.1; a return is highly unlikely in countries already below 1.4 and past peak<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population peak<\/td><td>63 countries or areas passed their peak before 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rural population peak<\/td><td>global rural population expected to peak in the 2040s<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat thresholds<\/td><td>older people face higher risk above heat limits<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>DEM \u2192 DEM peak<\/li><li>URB \u2192 DEV service thresholds<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 HLT heat thresholds<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>service-capacity thresholds at city scale<\/li><li>household cooling access<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Fertility in low-fertility countries; the pace of city shrinkage; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/energy-nexus\/\" data-tal=\"Energy Nexus\">heatwave<\/a> mortality.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-07 Food\u2013Water\u2013Energy Security<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-08 Health Security, One Health and Biosecurity<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-10 Cities and Urban Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes thresholds in public sources. It is not a prediction and assesses no state or city.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Urban Development overview (page: more than four billion people in cities; nearly 7 in 10 by 2050; about one quarter of urban residents in slums). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>13 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>China natural change in 2025<\/td><td>7.92 \u2212 11.31 million<\/td><td>\u22123.39 million<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Japan deaths per birth in 2024<\/td><td>1,605,298 \u00f7 686,061<\/td><td>\u2248 2.34<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Growth of built-up area per person, 1975 to 2025<\/td><td>(63 \u2212 43) \u00f7 43<\/td><td>\u2248 47 per cent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Gap between harmonised and national urban share, 2025<\/td><td>81 \u2212 58<\/td><td>23 points<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Human Systems Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-SR11-HUMANSYSTEMS \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> as people and places that change together and the mechanisms by which change spreads between housing, health, work, water, energy and public finance<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of systems<\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which city and demographic data to measure first; explaining how population and urban change spread.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>42 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Human Systems Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>World population projections<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Jul 2024<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><td>next revision<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>City, town and rural split<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Nov 2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next urbanisation revision<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slum and informal settlement counts<\/td><td>2022 to 2025<\/td><td>Mar 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next SDG report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Informal employment<\/td><td>2016<\/td><td>Apr 2018<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>no update bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>China births and deaths<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Feb 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>early 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Japan births and deaths<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Jun 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>mid 2026 release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">Heat-related deaths<\/a><\/td><td>2012 to 2021<\/td><td>Oct 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>late 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Internal displacement<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>May 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>May 2026 report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>City climate finance share<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Nov 2024<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><td>next report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU population<\/td><td>1 Jan 2025<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next release<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Population and fertility<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>neighbourhood-scale data<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Urban form<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>national city definitions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Housing and informality<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>recent country series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ageing and care<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>care capacity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat and health<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>urban age-specific data<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Displacement<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>movement into cities<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>City finance<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>common basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mobility and safety<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>city-level data<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Fertility and household formation on one basis across countries<\/td><td>national statistics offices and UN DESA<\/td><td>definitions and timing differ; national releases not all retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Neighbourhood-scale heat, age and housing data<\/td><td>city governments and national statistics offices<\/td><td>not published on a common basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNHCR global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.mass-displacement\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Large numbers of people forced to leave their homes by conflict, disaster or collapse, straining host areas and services.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">forced displacement<\/a> totals from the report itself<\/td><td>UNHCR Global Trends 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the report page returned an access error and the publication record gave no totals; figures come from search summaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IDMC global internal displacement totals from the report itself<\/td><td>IDMC Global Report 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the page counter showed no value; only the sub-Saharan Africa figure and share were read<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Full text of the Lancet fertility forecast<\/td><td>GBD fertility collaborators<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the journal page returned an access error; figures come from search summaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Groundswell internal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h116\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.demographic.climate-mobility\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Population structure and movement\" data-td=\"Movement of people away from places made unliveable by sea-level rise, heat, drought or land loss, and the stranding of those too poor to move.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H116\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">climate migration<\/a> estimates from the report itself<\/td><td>World Bank Groundswell<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the page returned not found; figures come from search summaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Korea fertility series from the national office<\/td><td>Statistics Korea<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>only a quarterly news summary was read; annual figures come from search summaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data year for the road traffic death estimate<\/td><td>WHO road traffic fact sheet<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the page states no data year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data year for the 1.16 billion housing estimate<\/td><td>UN DESA Goal 11 page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the page says latest data (2026) and gives no period; it differs from the 1.12 billion in the 2025 report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dhaka population in World Urbanization Prospects 2025<\/td><td>UN DESA key messages and press release<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the key messages give 37 million and the press release gives almost 40 million<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Share of people aged 60 and over living in low- and middle-income countries in 2050<\/td><td>WHO ageing fact sheet<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the page gives both two thirds and 80 per cent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs beyond monitoring and planning<\/td><td>governments, city networks and ministries<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the UN Population Division, advance unedited version. Biennial. Role: binds DEM-001, DEM-002 and AGE-006. Coverage: 237 countries and areas. The summary was read in full text.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR11-001<\/h3><p>UN World Population Prospects 2024 summary of results<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the UN Population Division. Periodic. Role: binds URB-003 and URB-004. Coverage: 237 countries and areas and more than 12,000 cities. The key messages were read in full.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-SR11-002<\/h3><p>UN World Urbanization Prospects 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR11-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-SR11-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>national estimates for all countries; revised by country<\/td><td>harmonised definitions; national definitions kept alongside<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 1 year after the base year<\/td><td>about 1 year after the base year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>advance unedited version; revised each cycle<\/td><td>new method; 2025 values not comparable to earlier national figures<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>probabilistic method published<\/td><td>methodological report published<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>peer and country review<\/td><td>country consultation<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>UN DESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>: country profiles and uncertainty intervals<\/li><li>UN DESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>: methodological report and the Dhaka figure<\/li><li>SDG database<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>: slum series by region and year<\/li><li>IDMC<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>: global totals and country detail<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>DESA<\/td><td>Department of Economic and Social Affairs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GBD<\/td><td>Global Burden of Disease<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IDMC<\/td><td>Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IDP<\/td><td>internally displaced person<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ILO<\/td><td>International Labour Organization<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IOM<\/td><td>International Organization for Migration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NBS<\/td><td>National Bureau of Statistics of China<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG<\/td><td>Sustainable Development Goal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TFR<\/td><td>total fertility rate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNFPA<\/td><td>United Nations Population Fund<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNHCR<\/td><td>United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WHO<\/td><td>World Health Organization<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-SR11-HEAT-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Regional notes<\/td><td>regional human-system cards<\/td><td>WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: harmonised city<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>a contiguous settlement classed as a city under the Degree of Urbanization method<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>people and number of cities<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>grid-based population and built-up data classified into cities, towns and rural areas<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>UN DESA World Urbanization Prospects 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>modelled estimates; differ from national urban definitions<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>minimum city size is 50,000 inhabitants; national definitions give a different share<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends Report 2024, June 2025 (123.2 million forcibly displaced at the end of 2024; 73.5 million internally displaced; 42.7 million refugees), taken from search-result summaries; the report page returned an access error. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (83.4 million internally displaced at the end of 2024; 45.8 million new displacements by disasters in 2024), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators, Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950 to 2021, with forecasts to 2100, The Lancet 403, 2057 to 2099, 2024 (global rate 2.23 in 2021, about 1.83 in 2050 and about 1.59 in 2100), taken from search-result summaries; the journal page returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Clement, V. et al., Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h116\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.demographic.climate-mobility\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Population structure and movement\" data-td=\"Movement of people away from places made unliveable by sea-level rise, heat, drought or land loss, and the stranding of those too poor to move.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H116\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">Climate Migration<\/a>, World Bank, 2021 (up to 216 million internal climate migrants by 2050), taken from search-result summaries; the World Bank pages returned not found. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics Korea (ed.), 2024 and 2025 birth statistics (total fertility rate 0.75 in 2024 and 0.80 in 2025, preliminary), taken from search-result summaries of news reports. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>UN DESA (ed.), press release on World Urbanization Prospects 2025, 18 November 2025 (cities hold 45 per cent of the world population; Dhaka given as almost 40 million). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Ageing and health, fact sheet (60 and over: 1.4 billion in 2030 and 2.1 billion in 2050; 80 and over 426 million in 2050; baseline 1 billion in 2020; page also gives two thirds and 80 per cent for the share in low- and middle-income countries). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-ca-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>World population<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">8.2<\/span><\/td><td>billion<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global total fertility rate<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.25<\/span><\/td><td>births per woman<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Life expectancy at birth<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">73.3<\/span><\/td><td>years<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Share of world population in cities<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">45<\/span><\/td><td>per cent<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Projected added city residents<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">986<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>to 2050<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Megacities<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">33<\/span><\/td><td>cities<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People in slums or informal settlements<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.12<\/span><\/td><td>billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Urban green space share<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">13.9<\/span><\/td><td>per cent<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workers in informal employment<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248 61<\/span><\/td><td>per cent<\/td><td>2016<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>China births<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">7.92<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>China deaths<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">11.31<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Japan births<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">686,061<\/span><\/td><td>births<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU total fertility rate<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.34<\/span><\/td><td>births per woman<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">Heat-related deaths<\/a>, annual average<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">546,000<\/span><\/td><td>deaths a year<\/td><td>2012 to 2021<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ambient air pollution deaths<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">4.2<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0AWorld%20population%2C8.2%2Cbillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AGlobal%20total%20fertility%20rate%2C2.25%2Cbirths%20per%20woman%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0ALife%20expectancy%20at%20birth%2C73.3%2Cyears%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AShare%20of%20world%20population%20in%20cities%2C45%2Cper%20cent%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AProjected%20added%20city%20residents%2C986%2Cmillion%2Cto%202050%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AMegacities%2C33%2Ccities%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0APeople%20in%20slums%20or%20informal%20settlements%2C1.12%2Cbillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B5%5D%0AUrban%20green%20space%20share%2C13.9%2Cper%20cent%2C2020%2CREPORTED%2C%5B5%5D%0AWorkers%20in%20informal%20employment%2C%E2%89%88%2061%2Cper%20cent%2C2016%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0AChina%20births%2C7.92%2Cmillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B11%5D%0AChina%20deaths%2C11.31%2Cmillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B11%5D%0AJapan%20births%2C%22686%2C061%22%2Cbirths%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B12%5D%0AEU%20total%20fertility%20rate%2C1.34%2Cbirths%20per%20woman%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B20%5D%0A%22Heat-related%20deaths%2C%20annual%20average%22%2C%22546%2C000%22%2Cdeaths%20a%20year%2C2012%20to%202021%2CREPORTED%2C%5B16%5D%0AAmbient%20air%20pollution%20deaths%2C4.2%2Cmillion%2C2019%2CREPORTED%2C%5B17%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Strategic%20Systems%20Report%202026%3A%20Cities%2C%20Demography%20and%20Human%20Systems%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22World%20population%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%228.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20total%20fertility%20rate%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222.25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22births%20per%20woman%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Life%20expectancy%20at%20birth%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2273.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22years%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Share%20of%20world%20population%20in%20cities%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2245%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22per%20cent%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Projected%20added%20city%20residents%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22986%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22to%202050%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Megacities%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2233%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22cities%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20in%20slums%20or%20informal%20settlements%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.12%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B5%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Urban%20green%20space%20share%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2213.9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22per%20cent%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222020%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B5%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Workers%20in%20informal%20employment%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88%2061%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22per%20cent%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222016%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22China%20births%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%227.92%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B11%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22China%20deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2211.31%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B11%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Japan%20births%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22686%2C061%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22births%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B12%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22EU%20total%20fertility%20rate%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.34%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22births%20per%20woman%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B20%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Heat-related%20deaths%2C%20annual%20average%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22546%2C000%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22deaths%20a%20year%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222012%20to%202021%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B16%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Ambient%20air%20pollution%20deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%224.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222019%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B17%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Values are rounded as published. Different vintages of the slum series (1.12 billion and 1.16 billion) and of the heat series (546,000 and 489,000 a year) use different periods and methods and are not added. Search-summary values carry an UNVERIFIED reference and are listed in the notes. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DEM<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DEV<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIG<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>UN World Population Prospects 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><td>population<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UN World Urbanization Prospects 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>urbanisation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG Report 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>housing and floods<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNFPA State of World Population<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>14 countries<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>fertility aspirations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UN-Habitat World Cities Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><td>city finance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ILO informality report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2016<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>informal work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NBS China communique<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics office<\/td><td>China<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>births and deaths<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Japan vital statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national ministry<\/td><td>Japan<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>births and deaths<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lancet Countdown<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>academic and WHO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2012 to 2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>heat deaths<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IDMC Global Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>research centre<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>internal displacement<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, ten regional clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td>ageing; heat; flood exposure<\/td><td>housing, health<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>urban concentration; informal housing<\/td><td>housing, services<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>low fertility; population ageing; net migration<\/td><td>health, pensions, housing<\/td><td>Eurostat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>population peak passed; ageing<\/td><td>labour, health<\/td><td>UN DESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td>fast city growth in Egypt<\/td><td>housing, water<\/td><td>UN DESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>rural and urban growth; informal housing; displacement<\/td><td>housing, services, shelter<\/td><td>UN DESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>; SDG Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>; IDMC<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>largest city growth; towns; Dhaka<\/td><td>housing, transport, heat<\/td><td>UN DESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>births below deaths; ageing; fertility lows<\/td><td>care, finance, labour<\/td><td>NBS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>; Japan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>; Korea<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>largest city is Jakarta; fast growth<\/td><td>housing, flood<\/td><td>UN DESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>small islands; heat; coastal exposure<\/td><td>housing, water<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Regional card: Sub-Saharan Africa<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">region<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">urban growth<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">informal housing<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">displacement<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>housing, health, water, shelter and public finance<\/dd><dt>Defining facts<\/dt><dd>slum share of urban residents 53.6 per cent in 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>; 38.8 million internally displaced at end 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>URB \u2192 DEV; MIG \u2192 URB<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>national urban policies and a regional convention on displaced people<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>city-level service data; movement into cities<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>H-02 \u00b7 H-04<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Sub-Saharan Africa is the only region with substantial rural population growth in recent decades and will account for nearly all future rural growth [2].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">GROWTH<\/h3><p>Rural and city growth<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The share of urban residents in slums was highest in sub-Saharan Africa in 2022 [6].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">HOUSING<\/h3><p>Informal settlements<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Sub-Saharan Africa reached a record 38.8 million internally displaced people at the end of 2024 [15].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">DISPLACEMENT<\/h3><p>A record count<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Regional cards are generated with the regional Baseline Editions. The Sub-Saharan Africa card is shown first because its growth, housing and displacement facts are published.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> edition through the demographic and city chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the global edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p>systems reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition (EU population 451 million on 1 January 2025; about 3.6 million births in 2024; fertility 1.34; 22 per cent aged 65 and over). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Ambient (outdoor) air quality and health, fact sheet (99 per cent of people above guideline levels; 4.2 million deaths; 2019 data). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>UNFPA (ed.), State of World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis (survey of 14 countries; 39 per cent cite financial limitations; nearly 20 per cent expect to have fewer children than they want). United Nations Population Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Statistics Korea (ed.), first quarter 2025 births (total fertility rate 0.82 against 0.77 a year earlier; 65,022 births), read in a news report of 28 May 2025; the agency release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Union, Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention), 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-sr-11-cb-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\">Cities, Demography and Human Systems 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>14 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>42 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results (advance unedited version, July 2024). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Urbanization Prospects 2025: Summary of Results, ten key messages (November 2025). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>UN DESA (ed.), press release on World Urbanization Prospects 2025, 18 November 2025 (cities hold 45 per cent of the world population; Dhaka given as almost 40 million). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Ageing and health, fact sheet (60 and over: 1.4 billion in 2030 and 2.1 billion in 2050; 80 and over 426 million in 2050; baseline 1 billion in 2020; page also gives two thirds and 80 per cent for the share in low- and middle-income countries). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Report 2025, Goal 11 (1.12 billion in slums or informal settlements; urban green space 19.5 per cent in 1990 and 13.9 per cent in 2020; one billion in riverine flood-prone areas, half in cities). United Nations Statistics Division, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>UN DESA (ed.), Sustainable Development Goal 11, facts and figures (latest data 2026: about 1.16 billion in slums, informal settlements or inadequate housing; 24.8 per cent of urban residents in slums in 2022; 53.6 per cent in sub-Saharan Africa). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>UNFPA (ed.), State of World Population 2025: The Real Fertility Crisis (survey of 14 countries; 39 per cent cite financial limitations; nearly 20 per cent expect to have fewer children than they want). United Nations Population Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN-Habitat (ed.), World Cities Report 2024: Cities and Climate Action (cities receive less than 20 per cent of the finance they need for effective climate action; page read, not the full report). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ILO (ed.), Women and men in the informal economy: a statistical picture, third edition (news release of 30 April 2018; about 2 billion workers, more than 61 per cent of the employed; Africa 85.8 per cent). International Labour Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), Urban Development overview (page: more than four billion people in cities; nearly 7 in 10 by 2050; about one quarter of urban residents in slums). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communique on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development, 28 February 2026 (year-end population 1,404.89 million; births 7.92 million; deaths 11.31 million; urbanisation 67.89 per cent; 65 and over 15.9 per cent). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>Japan Ministry of Health, Labour and Welfare, vital statistics for 2024 (686,061 births; total fertility rate 1.15; 1,605,298 deaths; Tokyo 0.96), read in a news summary of 5 June 2025; the ministry release was not opened. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Statistics Korea (ed.), first quarter 2025 births (total fertility rate 0.82 against 0.77 a year earlier; 65,022 births), read in a news report of 28 May 2025; the agency release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends Report 2024 (publication record, 16 June 2025; states a new record by the end of 2024; no totals on the page read). United Nations High Commissioner for Refugees, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (report page: sub-Saharan Africa a record 38.8 million internally displaced, around 46 per cent of the global total; the global counter showed no value). Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), news release on the 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>, 29 October 2025 (about 546,000 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> a year; up 23 per cent since the 1990s; USD 261 billion cost among older adults). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Ambient (outdoor) air quality and health, fact sheet (99 per cent of people above guideline levels; 4.2 million deaths; 2019 data). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>UN-Habitat (ed.), Housing topic page (3 billion people to need adequate housing by 2030; 96,000 units a day; 100 million homeless; one in four in harmful housing). UN-Habitat, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>UN DESA (ed.), International Migrant Stock 2024 (dataset page; 233 countries and areas; 1990 to 2024; totals not on the page read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition (EU population 451 million on 1 January 2025; about 3.6 million births in 2024; fertility 1.34; 22 per cent aged 65 and over). European Commission, Luxembourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Climate change, heat and health, fact sheet (page dated 31 July 2026; 489,000 heat-related deaths a year in 2000 to 2019, 45 per cent in Asia; over-65 mortality up about 85 per cent from 2000 to 2004 to 2017 to 2021). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Road traffic injuries, fact sheet (page dated 20 July 2026; about 1.16 million deaths a year; 92 per cent in low- and middle-income countries; the page states no data year). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>United Nations, New Urban Agenda (adopted at Habitat III in Quito on 20 October 2016; endorsed by the General Assembly on 23 December 2016; Habitat III page read). United Nations, Quito and New York. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: GBD 2021 Fertility and Forecasting Collaborators, Global fertility in 204 countries and territories, 1950 to 2021, with forecasts to 2100, The Lancet 403, 2057 to 2099, 2024 (global rate 2.23 in 2021, about 1.83 in 2050 and about 1.59 in 2100), taken from search-result summaries; the journal page returned an access error. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends Report 2024, June 2025 (123.2 million forcibly displaced at the end of 2024; 73.5 million internally displaced; 42.7 million refugees), taken from search-result summaries; the report page returned an access error. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IDMC (ed.), 2025 Global Report on Internal Displacement (83.4 million internally displaced at the end of 2024; 45.8 million new displacements by disasters in 2024), taken from search-result summaries. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Clement, V. et al., Groundswell Part II: Acting on Internal <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h116\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.demographic.climate-mobility\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Population structure and movement\" data-td=\"Movement of people away from places made unliveable by sea-level rise, heat, drought or land loss, and the stranding of those too poor to move.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H116\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">Climate Migration<\/a>, World Bank, 2021 (up to 216 million internal climate migrants by 2050), taken from search-result summaries; the World Bank pages returned not found. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Statistics Korea (ed.), 2024 and 2025 birth statistics (total fertility rate 0.75 in 2024 and 0.80 in 2025, preliminary), taken from search-result summaries of news reports. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IOM (ed.), World Migration Report 2024. International Organization for Migration, Geneva, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II, chapter 6, Cities, settlements and key infrastructure, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Tuholske, C. et al., Global urban population exposure to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/hydrometeorological-hazard-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/energy-nexus\/\" data-tal=\"Energy Nexus\">extreme heat<\/a>, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 118(41), 2021, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Seto, K.C., G\u00fcneralp, B. and Hutyra, L.R., Global forecasts of urban expansion to 2030 and direct impacts on biodiversity and carbon pools, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 109, 2012, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bettencourt, L.M.A. et al., Growth, innovation, scaling, and the pace of life in cities, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 104, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lutz, W., Goujon, A., KC, S., Stonawski, M. and Stilianakis, N. (eds.), Demographic and Human Capital Scenarios for the 21st Century, Publications Office of the European Union, 2018, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: McGranahan, G., Balk, D. and Anderson, B., The rising tide: assessing the risks of climate change and human settlements in low elevation coastal zones, Environment and Urbanization 19, 2007, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37120:2018, Sustainable cities and communities, indicators for city services and quality of life, with the related ISO 37122 and 37123, cited from memory; the ISO page returned an access error. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Global Compact for Safe, Orderly and Regular Migration, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention relating to the Status of Refugees, 1951, and its 1967 Protocol, cited from memory. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 1951. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Union, Convention for the Protection and Assistance of Internally Displaced Persons in Africa (Kampala Convention), 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: WHO (ed.), Decade of Healthy Ageing 2021 to 2030, cited from memory; no figure used. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and European Commission (eds.), Cities in the World: A New Perspective on Urbanisation, OECD Publishing, Paris, 2020, with the Degree of Urbanisation method endorsed by the UN Statistical Commission in 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Strategic <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Report 2026: Cities, Demography and Human Systems, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Strategic Systems Series SR-11<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 human systems edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-11-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SR-11<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-11-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-STR-SR-11-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Cities, Demography and Human Systems; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Cities%2C%20Demography%20and%20Human%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Cities%2C%20Demography%20and%20Human%20Systems&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Cities%2C%20Demography%20and%20Human%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Cities%2C%20Demography%20and%20Human%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Cities%2C%20Demography%20and%20Human%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Cities, Demography and Human Systems, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Cities, Demography and Human Systems for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Strategic Systems Report 2026: Cities, Demography and Human Systems.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Cities, Demography and Human Systems&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-11&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Cities, Demography and Human Systems&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-11&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-sr-11-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-sr-11-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>SR-11 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Cities, Demography and Human <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-11 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Cities, Demography and Human Systems.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Strategic Systems<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-11\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><p class=\"nx-note\" data-nr-rights=\"true\"><a class=\"nx-link\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.<\/p><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-11-full-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-11-full-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-11-full-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/model\/scenarios\/urban-flood\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Urban flood<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/risk-information-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Risk information standards and interoperability<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/data\/identification-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Identification (the UNI)<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script><style>@media print { @page { margin: 20mm 17mm 20mm 17mm; @top-left { content: \"Nexus Reports\"; font: 500 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @top-right { content: \"Strategic Systems Report 2026: Cities, Demography and Human Systems \\0000b7  Baseline Edition 2026\"; font: 400 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Sans\", sans-serif; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-left { content: \"NR-STRATEGIC-HUMANSYSTEMS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE \\0000b7  Draft, not released\"; font: 400 7pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-center { content: \"CC BY 4.0. 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