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\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\"><style>#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-06-full.nxe{display:block;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:1180px;margin:0 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svg{display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-06-full.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-06-full.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-06-full.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">XT-06<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Exponential Technology<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. AI compute is physical infrastructure built on a few chips and a few places<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Compute build-out meets local power, water and packaging limits<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>10 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Advanced semiconductors matter to the Nexus programme because AI compute is now built from a few chip types made in a few places. Global semiconductor sales reached USD 791.7 billion in 2025, up 25.6%, and logic chips were the largest category at USD 301.9 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>. Equipment makers billed USD 135.1 billion, with China, Taiwan and Korea together taking about 79%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. The demand side is steep. The performance of leading AI supercomputers has doubled about every nine months since 2019, and their power needs have doubled about every year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Epoch AI estimates that training compute grows about four times a year and that power is the limit most likely to bind first<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. United States data centres used 176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4% of national electricity, and a Berkeley Lab report projects 325 to 580 TWh by 2028<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. Governments now steer the sector. The United States set aside USD 50 billion under the CHIPS and Science Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup>. The EU Chips Act entered into force on 21 September 2023, and the Commission proposed a second act in June 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>. US export-control guidance on advanced computing items was issued again in May 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>. Some of the market evidence in this edition comes from trade reports and search summaries and is labelled so. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no price or <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.supply-disruption\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"A break in the flow of goods or materials between producers and users that stops production or leaves shortages.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">shortage<\/a> and ranks no company or country.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the semiconductor and compute baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">USD 791.7 billion in 2025, up 25.6%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How big is the chip market?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Performance of leading <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> doubled about every nine months since 2019; training compute grows about four times a year.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How fast is AI compute growing?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">US data centres used 176 TWh in 2023; 325 to 580 TWh is projected for 2028.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What does it need in electricity?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">China, Taiwan and Korea took about 79% of 2025 billings.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Where is equipment bought?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The United States set aside USD 50 billion; the EU recorded over EUR 33 billion in State aid decisions.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What do governments spend?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">US licences for advanced computing items to D:5 entities, per May 2026 guidance.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What controls apply?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Not published on a common basis; one company reports about 5,300 acre-feet a year for one Arizona fab.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What is the water footprint?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Whether power, water and packaging limits slow the compute build-out. SCN-XT06-PWR-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">United States data centres used 176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4% of national electricity, and a Berkeley Lab report projects 325 to 580 TWh by 2028, or about 6.7% to 12%.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-fig1-t\">US data centre electricity use (TWh)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">2023<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"30.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">176<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2028 projection, low<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"56.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">325<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2028 projection, high<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">580<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: Berkeley Lab report of December 2024, as described by the US Department of Energy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. The 2028 values are scenario projections.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">The compute build-out is also an electricity build-out. The 2028 range is 1.8 to 3.3 times the 2023 level (method 4), and the spread shows how much depends on chip supply, efficiency and siting. The report covers US data centres, not the world, and not fabrication plants<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">791.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>chip sales, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">135.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>equipment billings, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">months<\/span><p>AI supercomputer performance doubling<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">176<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">TWh<\/span><p>US data centres, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">50<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>CHIPS and Science Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22484<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">times a year<\/span><p>training compute growth<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading advanced semiconductors and AI compute as physical infrastructure.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people the story arrives as a headline about a chip shortage, a data centre or a trade rule.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Sales and public programmes are large, and plant and data centre costs fall on operators and ratepayers.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Semiconductor and compute evidence is rich on markets and thin on the physical footprint.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the 2026 state of advanced semiconductors and AI compute as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a forecast of chip prices, shortages or sales, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any company or an assessment of any programme. Export controls, subsidies and standards are decisions of competent authorities.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 semiconductor and compute edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association (ed.), Global Annual Semiconductor Sales Increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (release; WSTS data; logic USD 301.9 billion; memory USD 223.1 billion; regional growth; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026). Semiconductor Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Evertiq (ed.), Semiconductor equipment billings reached $135B in 2025, 9 April 2026, a trade report of a SEMI release (USD 135.06 billion in 2025 against USD 117.14 billion in 2024; regional table); the SEMI page itself returned an access error, so this is a secondary report and weak evidence. Evertiq, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Sevilla, J. and others, Can AI scaling continue through 2030?, Epoch AI, 20 August 2024 (first 100,000 characters read: about 4 times a year; 1 to 5 GW campuses; about 2e29 FLOP feasible by 2030; power binds first). Epoch AI, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, enacted 9 August 2022 (text of section 102 on Congress.gov, first 100,000 characters read: the funding lines for sections 9902 and 9906 of Public Law 116-283 by fiscal year 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, USD 50 billion in all; the totals are sums of the listed amounts, not stated in the text). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), home page and news items (May 2026 guidance on licences for advanced computing items to Country Group D:5 entities; 7 April 2026 extension of the authorised IC designer timeline to 31 December 2026; Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports listed). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>AZFamily (ed.), TSMC Arizona expansion could make it Phoenix\u2019s largest water customer, 22 July 2026 (total planned investment USD 265 billion; about 5,300 acre-feet a year for the first fab; 65% reclaimed; goal 90%); local news reporting company figures, weak evidence. Gray Media, Phoenix. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Shehabi, A. and others, 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 2024 (publication page abstract only; no figures on the page; the report PDF was not read). Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">AI compute is physical infrastructure built on a few chips and a few places<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>12 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is semiconductor and compute risk concentrated?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry semiconductor and compute shocks into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which semiconductor and compute capabilities hold under compound stress?<\/li><li>What must 2027 evidence measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five footprint and governance chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>AI compute is usually discussed as software. The 2026 evidence reads it as a physical build: chips from a handful of fabrication clusters, machines from specialised equipment, memory and packaging, and sites that need electricity and cooling<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Demand grows fast. Leading AI supercomputers doubled in performance about every nine months from 2019 to 2025, while their power needs doubled about every year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Epoch AI estimates that training compute grows about four times a year and that power binds first<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. Earlier work finds a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 doubling-time\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The time a quantity growing at a constant proportional rate takes to double; short doubling times compress the window for action.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">doubling time<\/a> of about six months in the deep learning era<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Supply follows money. Chip sales rose 25.6% in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>, equipment billings reached USD 135.1 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>, and governments added the CHIPS and Science Act and the EU Chips Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>. Export controls shape who can buy advanced computing items<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The footprint is the least measured part. US data centres used 176 TWh in 2023 and may use 325 to 580 TWh in 2028<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. Water use of fabrication plants is reported by single companies, not on a common basis<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup>. Peer-reviewed work shows large gaps between models, sites and hardware<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-fig1-t\">How fast do compute measures double? Doubling time, months<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Two sources report the speed of growth. The AI supercomputer dataset shows performance doubling about every nine months, while power and cost double about every year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. An earlier study finds training compute doubling about every six months in the deep learning era and about every twenty months before it<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. These are historical fits, not forecasts.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">AI supercomputer performance, 2019 to 2025<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"45.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">AI supercomputer power need and hardware cost<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"60.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">12<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Training compute, deep learning era<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"30.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">6<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Training compute, before deep learning<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">20<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">months<\/span><p>AI supercomputer performance doubling<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">months<\/span><p>power and cost doubling, about a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">months<\/span><p>training compute, deep learning era<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">months<\/span><p>training compute, earlier era<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The semiconductor and compute-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for their semiconductor and compute content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">water for power and cooling<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">cooling and fab water demand<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 ENE \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Compute demand raises electricity demand and constrains where sites can be built.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> US data centre estimates<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Export controls change who can buy advanced chips and equipment.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> US guidance of May 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Sales and subsidies fund plants and equipment.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> sales and CHIPS Act figures<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Water supply constrains plant siting.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> one company water report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">GOV \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Subsidy programmes set where capacity is built.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> EU and US programmes<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association (ed.), Global Annual Semiconductor Sales Increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (release; WSTS data; logic USD 301.9 billion; memory USD 223.1 billion; regional growth; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026). Semiconductor Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Evertiq (ed.), Semiconductor equipment billings reached $135B in 2025, 9 April 2026, a trade report of a SEMI release (USD 135.06 billion in 2025 against USD 117.14 billion in 2024; regional table); the SEMI page itself returned an access error, so this is a secondary report and weak evidence. Evertiq, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Sevilla, J. and others, Can AI scaling continue through 2030?, Epoch AI, 20 August 2024 (first 100,000 characters read: about 4 times a year; 1 to 5 GW campuses; about 2e29 FLOP feasible by 2030; power binds first). Epoch AI, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sevilla, J., Heim, L., Ho, A., Besiroglu, T., Hobbhahn, M. and Villalobos, P., Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning, arXiv:2202.05924, 2022 (abstract page: doubling about every 20 months before 2010 and about every 6 months in the deep learning era). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, enacted 9 August 2022 (text of section 102 on Congress.gov, first 100,000 characters read: the funding lines for sections 9902 and 9906 of Public Law 116-283 by fiscal year 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, USD 50 billion in all; the totals are sums of the listed amounts, not stated in the text). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), home page and news items (May 2026 guidance on licences for advanced computing items to Country Group D:5 entities; 7 April 2026 extension of the authorised IC designer timeline to 31 December 2026; Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports listed). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>AZFamily (ed.), TSMC Arizona expansion could make it Phoenix\u2019s largest water customer, 22 July 2026 (total planned investment USD 265 billion; about 5,300 acre-feet a year for the first fab; 65% reclaimed; goal 90%); local news reporting company figures, weak evidence. Gray Media, Phoenix. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Luccioni, A.S., Jernite, Y. and Strubell, E., Power Hungry Processing: Watts Driving the Cost of AI Deployment?, ACM FAccT 2024, arXiv:2311.16863 (abstract page: multi-purpose generative models orders of magnitude more costly per 1,000 inferences than task-specific models). ACM, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Patterson, D. and others, Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training, arXiv:2104.10350, April 2021 (abstract page: sparse models under one tenth of the energy; location effect 5 to 10 times; choice of model, datacentre and processor 100 to 1000 times). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the semiconductor and compute baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">United States data centres used 176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4% of national electricity, and a Berkeley Lab report projects 325 to 580 TWh by 2028, or about 6.7% to 12%.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-fig1-t\">US data centre electricity use (TWh)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">2023<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"30.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">176<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2028 projection, low<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"56.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">325<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2028 projection, high<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">580<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: Berkeley Lab report of December 2024, as described by the US Department of Energy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. The 2028 values are scenario projections.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The compute build-out is also an electricity build-out. The 2028 range is 1.8 to 3.3 times the 2023 level (method 4), and the spread shows how much depends on chip supply, efficiency and siting. The report covers US data centres, not the world, and not fabrication plants<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Next national statistics, the IEA global series, published site-level power data and utility interconnection records would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>AIC<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-001\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">A dataset of 500 AI supercomputers from 2019 to 2025 shows performance doubling about every nine months, with hardware cost and power need each doubling about every year; one system in March 2025 used about 200,000 chips and 300 MW.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-002\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Epoch AI estimates that training compute grows about four times a year, that runs of about 2e29 FLOP are likely feasible by 2030, and that power is the constraint most likely to bind first.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-003\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The 2025 AI Index reports that hardware costs fell about 30% a year and energy efficiency rose about 40% a year, while training compute doubles about every five months.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-004\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Global semiconductor sales reached USD 791.7 billion in 2025, up 25.6% from USD 630.5 billion; logic sales were USD 301.9 billion and memory sales USD 223.1 billion.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Semiconductor equipment billings reached USD 135.1 billion in 2025, up 15%, according to a trade report of SEMI data; Taiwan rose 90% to USD 31.5 billion and China held near USD 49.3 billion.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Infrastructure<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-006\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Press reports put the largest foundry at nearly 70% of the global foundry market in 2025, and about 74% of its wafer revenue came from 7 nanometre and smaller nodes; both are secondary reports.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">US data centres used 176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4% of national electricity, and a Berkeley Lab report projects 325 to 580 TWh by 2028, or about 6.7% to 12%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-008\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The IEA reports global data centre electricity use of about 415 TWh in 2024 and projects about 945 TWh by 2030 in its base case; the figures come from search summaries of the report.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Governance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The CHIPS and Science Act, enacted on 9 August 2022, provides USD 50 billion, of which USD 39 billion is for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, and award outlays are not bound at the close.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The EU Chips Act entered into force on 21 September 2023, more than EUR 33 billion was recorded across 19 State aid decisions, and the Commission proposed a second Chips Act in June 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Trade<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-011\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">US guidance of May 2026 states that a licence is required to export advanced computing items to entities headquartered in Country Group D:5, and the AI diffusion rule was rescinded in May 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a build-out of AI compute that meets local limits on power, water and packaging capacity while fabrication stays concentrated. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Shehabi, A. and others, 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 2024 (publication page abstract only; no figures on the page; the report PDF was not read). Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Sevilla, J. and others, Can AI scaling continue through 2030?, Epoch AI, 20 August 2024 (first 100,000 characters read: about 4 times a year; 1 to 5 GW campuses; about 2e29 FLOP feasible by 2030; power binds first). Epoch AI, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (ed.), The 2025 AI Index Report, key takeaways page (training compute doubling about every five months; hardware cost down about 30% a year; energy efficiency up about 40% a year; chips detail not given on the page). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association (ed.), Global Annual Semiconductor Sales Increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (release; WSTS data; logic USD 301.9 billion; memory USD 223.1 billion; regional growth; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026). Semiconductor Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Evertiq (ed.), Semiconductor equipment billings reached $135B in 2025, 9 April 2026, a trade report of a SEMI release (USD 135.06 billion in 2025 against USD 117.14 billion in 2024; regional table); the SEMI page itself returned an access error, so this is a secondary report and weak evidence. Evertiq, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Focus Taiwan, Central News Agency (ed.), report of 13 March 2026 on the largest foundry reaching almost 70% of the global foundry market in 2025 (headline and lead only; the rest is behind a paywall); press report, weak evidence. Central News Agency, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: TrendForce (ed.), 2025 foundry ranking (largest foundry sales about USD 122.5 billion and a share of about 69.9%), taken from press coverage in search results. TrendForce, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: TSMC (ed.), fourth-quarter 2025 results (about 74% of 2025 wafer revenue from 7 nanometre and smaller nodes against 69% in 2024), taken from press coverage in search results; sources differ on the quarterly share. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Hsinchu. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, April 2025 (about 415 TWh of global data centre electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the total; about 945 TWh in 2030 in the base case; range of 700 to 1,700 TWh in 2035), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA pages returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, enacted 9 August 2022 (text of section 102 on Congress.gov, first 100,000 characters read: the funding lines for sections 9902 and 9906 of Public Law 116-283 by fiscal year 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, USD 50 billion in all; the totals are sums of the listed amounts, not stated in the text). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), home page and news items (May 2026 guidance on licences for advanced computing items to Country Group D:5 entities; 7 April 2026 extension of the authorised IC designer timeline to 31 December 2026; Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports listed). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: law-firm client alerts on the rescission of the AI diffusion rule and related guidance, 12 and 13 May 2025, taken from search-result summaries; a formal notice date was not confirmed. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c2-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">AIC \u00b7 Compute<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Training compute growth, Epoch AI estimate<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22484<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">times per year<\/span><p>power is the first limit likely to bind.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>Epoch AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Market<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Global semiconductor sales<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">791.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>up 25.6% on 2024.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>SIA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Equipment<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Semiconductor equipment billings<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">135.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>trade report of a SEMI release.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>trade report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Energy<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">US data centre electricity use<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">176<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">TWh<\/span><p>about 4.4% of US electricity.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2023<\/span><span>Berkeley Lab<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">INF \u00b7 Fabrication<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Foundry share of the largest producer<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224870<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>press report; a market-research estimate.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>press<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">TRD \u00b7 Policy<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">US CHIPS and Science Act programmes<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">50<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>39 for manufacturing, 11 for research.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2022<\/span><span>Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through semiconductor and compute, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries semiconductor and compute risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Cooling and process water use is reported by single companies, not on a common basis; one company reports about 5,300 acre-feet a year for one fab.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT \u2194 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>US data centres used 176 TWh in 2023 and may use 325 to 580 TWh in 2028.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>No documented coupling at baseline; chips in agricultural equipment are not evidenced here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">none documented<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>No documented coupling at baseline; medical device and imaging chips are not evidenced here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">none documented<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>No documented coupling at baseline.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">none documented<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>Electricity demand of compute and fabrication matters for emissions; the carbon intensity varies by site and region.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>The core system: fabrication concentrated in a few clusters; equipment billings of USD 135.1 billion in 2025.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Chip sales of USD 791.7 billion in 2025; public programmes of USD 50 billion in the United States.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2194 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Data centres are the main buyers of AI accelerators; the link is stated, the volumes are not bound.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF \u2192 DAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>The demand driver: AI supercomputer performance doubling about every nine months.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Gallium and germanium are used in chips and are concentrated in primary production; figures are not bound from a primary source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>US licences for advanced computing items to D:5 entities; equipment and chip flows follow controls.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2194 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on semiconductor and compute, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>compute couples to power, water and trade controls<\/td><td>local limits<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>fab water reported by single companies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>siting in dry regions<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>data centre electricity 176 TWh in 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>load growth<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food<\/td><td>no documented coupling<\/td><td>none documented<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>no documented coupling<\/td><td>none documented<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td>chip sales USD 791.7 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>capital intensity<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>access to chips and skills<\/td><td>widening gaps<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>electricity demand and emissions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>grid carbon intensity<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>fabrication clusters in seismic regions<\/td><td>single-cluster dependence<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>data centre and fab power and cooling<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>grid interconnection<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>no documented coupling<\/td><td>none documented<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>no documented coupling<\/td><td>none documented<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>chips in space sensors not evidenced here<\/td><td>none documented<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>compute capacity and controls<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>hardware supply integrity<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>CHIPS Act and EU Chips Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>subsidy and control divergence<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>peer-reviewed base on trends and energy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>common benchmarks<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Sevilla, J. and others, Can AI scaling continue through 2030?, Epoch AI, 20 August 2024 (first 100,000 characters read: about 4 times a year; 1 to 5 GW campuses; about 2e29 FLOP feasible by 2030; power binds first). Epoch AI, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association (ed.), Global Annual Semiconductor Sales Increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (release; WSTS data; logic USD 301.9 billion; memory USD 223.1 billion; regional growth; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026). Semiconductor Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Evertiq (ed.), Semiconductor equipment billings reached $135B in 2025, 9 April 2026, a trade report of a SEMI release (USD 135.06 billion in 2025 against USD 117.14 billion in 2024; regional table); the SEMI page itself returned an access error, so this is a secondary report and weak evidence. Evertiq, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Focus Taiwan, Central News Agency (ed.), report of 13 March 2026 on the largest foundry reaching almost 70% of the global foundry market in 2025 (headline and lead only; the rest is behind a paywall); press report, weak evidence. Central News Agency, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, enacted 9 August 2022 (text of section 102 on Congress.gov, first 100,000 characters read: the funding lines for sections 9902 and 9906 of Public Law 116-283 by fiscal year 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, USD 50 billion in all; the totals are sums of the listed amounts, not stated in the text). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>AZFamily (ed.), TSMC Arizona expansion could make it Phoenix\u2019s largest water customer, 22 July 2026 (total planned investment USD 265 billion; about 5,300 acre-feet a year for the first fab; 65% reclaimed; goal 90%); local news reporting company figures, weak evidence. Gray Media, Phoenix. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, April 2025 (about 415 TWh of global data centre electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the total; about 945 TWh in 2030 in the base case; range of 700 to 1,700 TWh in 2035), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA pages returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), home page and news items (May 2026 guidance on licences for advanced computing items to Country Group D:5 entities; 7 April 2026 extension of the authorised IC designer timeline to 31 December 2026; Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports listed). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sevilla, J., Heim, L., Ho, A., Besiroglu, T., Hobbhahn, M. and Villalobos, P., Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning, arXiv:2202.05924, 2022 (abstract page: doubling about every 20 months before 2010 and about every 6 months in the deep learning era). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Luccioni, A.S., Jernite, Y. and Strubell, E., Power Hungry Processing: Watts Driving the Cost of AI Deployment?, ACM FAccT 2024, arXiv:2311.16863 (abstract page: multi-purpose generative models orders of magnitude more costly per 1,000 inferences than task-specific models). ACM, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Patterson, D. and others, Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training, arXiv:2104.10350, April 2021 (abstract page: sparse models under one tenth of the energy; location effect 5 to 10 times; choice of model, datacentre and processor 100 to 1000 times). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four semiconductor and compute risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-XT06-ENE-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Power limits on the compute build-out<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>rapid growth in AI compute and data centre load<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>regions with fast load growth; local grids<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>interconnection queues; single-site clusters<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>efficiency gains and siting choices<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>ENE \u2192 INF \u2192 FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-XT06-INF-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Fabrication and packaging concentration<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>one foundry near 70% of the market; Taiwan equipment spending up 90%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>chip supply for compute, memory and devices<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>few sites; seismic and geopolitical exposure<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>new plants under the US, EU and national programmes<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>INF \u2192 AIC \u2192 FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 10 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-XT06-TRD-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Fragmented export controls and licensing<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>US guidance and rescission of the diffusion rule<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>equipment and chip flows; research collaboration<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>rule changes at short notice<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>licensing channels; allied coordination<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>TRD \u2192 INF, FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-XT06-WAT-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Water siting limits for plants and cooling<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>plant expansion in water-scarce regions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>plants and data centres in dry regions<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>drought; competing municipal demand<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>reclamation; company goal of 90% in one plan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>WAT \u2192 INF \u2192 ENE<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for semiconductor and compute at the global level.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>efficiency work exists; no common footprint standard bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>sales and equipment statistics published regularly<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>no consolidated <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.supply-disruption\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"A break in the flow of goods or materials between producers and users that stops production or leaves shortages.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">shortage<\/a> warning across chips, memory and packaging<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>CHIPS Act and EU Chips Act programmes<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>strategic stocks of chips and materials are not documented here<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>EU monitoring and crisis response pillar in the Chips Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>not tested in a documented <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.semiconductor-supply-disruption\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Loss of advanced or mature chip output, from fab damage, contamination, water or power loss, conflict or export controls, halting vehicles, devices and infrastructure equipment.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">chip shortage<\/a> here<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>no documented recovery plan for a fabrication outage<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>roadmaps exist; adaptation of designs to supply limits not documented<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>not applicable at baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>public programmes of USD 50 billion in the US and EU State aid<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>European Semiconductor Board; IRDS roadmap<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>fabrication and equipment base at USD 135.1 billion of billings<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>skills gaps reported; no figure bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>strong peer-reviewed base<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Sevilla, J. and others, Can AI scaling continue through 2030?, Epoch AI, 20 August 2024 (first 100,000 characters read: about 4 times a year; 1 to 5 GW campuses; about 2e29 FLOP feasible by 2030; power binds first). Epoch AI, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (ed.), The 2025 AI Index Report, key takeaways page (training compute doubling about every five months; hardware cost down about 30% a year; energy efficiency up about 40% a year; chips detail not given on the page). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Patterson, D. and others, Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training, arXiv:2104.10350, April 2021 (abstract page: sparse models under one tenth of the energy; location effect 5 to 10 times; choice of model, datacentre and processor 100 to 1000 times). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Evertiq (ed.), Semiconductor equipment billings reached $135B in 2025, 9 April 2026, a trade report of a SEMI release (USD 135.06 billion in 2025 against USD 117.14 billion in 2024; regional table); the SEMI page itself returned an access error, so this is a secondary report and weak evidence. Evertiq, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Focus Taiwan, Central News Agency (ed.), report of 13 March 2026 on the largest foundry reaching almost 70% of the global foundry market in 2025 (headline and lead only; the rest is behind a paywall); press report, weak evidence. Central News Agency, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, enacted 9 August 2022 (text of section 102 on Congress.gov, first 100,000 characters read: the funding lines for sections 9902 and 9906 of Public Law 116-283 by fiscal year 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, USD 50 billion in all; the totals are sums of the listed amounts, not stated in the text). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The Register (ed.), Japan\u2019s Rapidus lands $1.7B to chase 2nm chip production by 2027, 27 February 2026 (JPY 267.6 billion round; JPY 100 billion from a METI agency; JPY 167.6 billion from 32 companies); trade press, weak evidence. Situation Publishing, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), home page and news items (May 2026 guidance on licences for advanced computing items to Country Group D:5 entities; 7 April 2026 extension of the authorised IC designer timeline to 31 December 2026; Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports listed). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: law-firm client alerts on the rescission of the AI diffusion rule and related guidance, 12 and 13 May 2025, taken from search-result summaries; a formal notice date was not confirmed. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of the Netherlands and Government of Japan, export-control rules on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, 2023, cited from memory; no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>AZFamily (ed.), TSMC Arizona expansion could make it Phoenix\u2019s largest water customer, 22 July 2026 (total planned investment USD 265 billion; about 5,300 acre-feet a year for the first fab; 65% reclaimed; goal 90%); local news reporting company figures, weak evidence. Gray Media, Phoenix. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association (ed.), Global Annual Semiconductor Sales Increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (release; WSTS data; logic USD 301.9 billion; memory USD 223.1 billion; regional growth; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026). Semiconductor Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>IEEE (ed.), International Roadmap for Devices and Systems, programme page (successor to the ITRS; IEEE sponsorship since 2016; 2023 update the latest edition listed). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sevilla, J., Heim, L., Ho, A., Besiroglu, T., Hobbhahn, M. and Villalobos, P., Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning, arXiv:2202.05924, 2022 (abstract page: doubling about every 20 months before 2010 and about every 6 months in the deep learning era). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Compute build-out meets local power, water and packaging limits<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>2 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>AI compute demand keeps growing while grid connection, water supply and packaging capacity grow more slowly<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>the 2023 to 2028 range of US data centre load; the 2019 to 2025 growth of AI supercomputers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">new compute sites queue for grid connection<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">cooling and plant water demand meets local supply limits<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">INF \u2192 AIC<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">packaging and memory capacity limits the chips that can be used<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">export-control changes shift where equipment and chips can go<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">GOV \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">subsidy programmes move capacity to new regions over several years<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FIN \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">investment shifts toward efficiency, power supply and packaging<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01 would travel through Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 AI compute to energy<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">New compute sites queue for grid connection. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-06, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Energy to water<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Cooling and plant water demand meets local supply limits. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-06, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Infrastructure to ai compute<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Packaging and memory capacity limits the chips that can be used. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-06, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Trade to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Export-control changes shift where equipment and chips can go. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-06, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Governance to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Subsidy programmes move capacity to new regions over several years. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-06, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Finance to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Investment shifts toward efficiency, power supply and packaging. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-06, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026, scenario SCN-XT06-PWR-01<\/a> (2026); Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c5-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The semiconductor and compute baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>16 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>38 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading advanced semiconductors and AI compute as physical infrastructure. Demand growth and sales are well documented, and the footprint of plants and data centres is thinly measured. Evidence is strongest for sales, equipment and US electricity, and weakest for water, packaging and workforce.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">AIC-001 \u00b7 FIN-004 \u00b7 ENE-007 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people the story arrives as a headline about a chip shortage, a data centre or a trade rule. The baseline asks that public debate separate measured figures from company statements and secondary reports.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">AIC-001 \u00b7 ENE-007 \u00b7 TRD-011<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Sales and public programmes are large, and plant and data centre costs fall on operators and ratepayers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-004 \u00b7 GOV-009<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Semiconductor and compute evidence is rich on markets and thin on the physical footprint. The 2027 programme should bind power and water use, map packaging and memory capacity, and test the local-limits pathway.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 Q-01 \u00b7 Q-02<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for semiconductor and compute. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability exist?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests show?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What changed in the year, and what renews?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards and Academy<\/td><td>technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability<\/td><td>technology editorial board<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard is a decision of the competent standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">AI compute rests on chips, equipment, memory, packaging, power and water. Reading it as software hides the limits that decide its pace.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>Compute is a physical build<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">A statistical release, a trade report of that release and a company page carry different weight. This edition labels each, and keeps vendor claims out of findings.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Measured and claimed<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Power and water of plants and data centres are rarely counted on one basis. A published footprint would show whether growth is limited by chips, power or water.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>The footprint is the blind spot<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Subsidies and export controls decide where capacity is built and who can buy it. They change at short notice, so planners need the rule texts, not summaries.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Policy is now part of the supply chain<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 global edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 semiconductor and compute readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 semiconductor and compute readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td>Semiconductor and compute risk state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 6 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>national chapters in preparation<\/td><td>national chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments and published guidance that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DRAFT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>CHIPS and Science Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>US Congress<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>subsidy statute<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Regulation (EU) 2023\/1781<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>Chips Act<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU second Chips Act proposal<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Commission<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>DRAFT<\/td><td>proposal of June 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US advanced computing licence guidance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>US Department of Commerce<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>PUBLISHED<\/td><td>export licences<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Framework for AI diffusion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>US Department of Commerce<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>RESCINDED 2025<\/td><td>export controls<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>JESD270-4 HBM4<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>JEDEC<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>memory interface<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IRDS roadmap<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEEE<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>technology roadmap<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Export-control rules on lithography equipment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Netherlands and Japan<\/td><td>allied states<\/td><td>PUBLISHED<\/td><td>equipment controls<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>India Semiconductor Mission<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Government of India<\/td><td>India<\/td><td>PROGRAMME ACTIVE<\/td><td>subsidy programme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rapidus support<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Japan, METI<\/td><td>Japan<\/td><td>PROGRAMME ACTIVE<\/td><td>subsidy programme<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The European Commission proposed a second Chips Act in June 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>US guidance of May 2026 restated the licence requirement for D:5 entities<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Post-close, context only: NIST listed CHIPS award notices in September and October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Adoption of the EU second Chips Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Outcome of the Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The authorised IC designer timeline set to December 31, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers semiconductor and compute assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about advanced semiconductors and AI compute as infrastructure and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>peer-reviewed journals and preprints; agencies and ministries; roadmaps and standards; market and energy analyses<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and preprints<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Pilz and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>preprint<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>AI supercomputer trends<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sevilla and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>preprint<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>training compute eras<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Luccioni, Jernite and Strubell<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>conference paper<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>inference energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Patterson and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>preprint<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>training energy and carbon<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Leiserson and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>performance after scaling<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Koomey and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2011<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>efficiency trend<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Masanet and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>data centre energy estimates<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Khan and Mann<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>report<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>AI chip supply chain<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Policy and programme sources<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Moore<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>1965<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>transistor scaling<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dennard and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>1974<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>scaling and power density<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Epoch AI report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>research organisation<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>compute limits to 2030<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Epoch AI model data<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>research organisation<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>model database<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AI Index 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>university institute<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>hardware cost trends<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IRDS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEEE programme<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>roadmap<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards, roadmaps and statutes<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>CHIPS and Science Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>US Congress<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>statute<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NIST CHIPS R&amp;D programmes page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NIST<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>programmes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU Chips Act page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Commission<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>EU programme<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Regulation (EU) 2023\/1781<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>statute text<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US export-control guidance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>US Department of Commerce<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>trade controls<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Market, supply and energy overviews<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIA release<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>industry association<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>sales<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trade report of SEMI data<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>trade press<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>equipment billings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Berkeley Lab report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national laboratory<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>US data centre energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA Energy and AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>global data centre energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>JEDEC memory standard<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>standards body<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>memory<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nvidia product page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>vendor<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>vendor claims<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Company water report coverage<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>local news<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>fab water<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>AI compute demand and chip sales have grown fast<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Data centre electricity use is rising and is a planning issue<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Fabrication and equipment spending are concentrated in a few regions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How large the power and water footprint of fabrication and AI data centres will be<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How export controls and subsidies will change where capacity is built<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How company and vendor claims compare on a common basis<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">PREPRINTS<\/p><p>Three sources<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup> are preprints and are labelled as not peer-reviewed. They contextualise findings; none binds a finding on its own.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association (ed.), Global Annual Semiconductor Sales Increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (release; WSTS data; logic USD 301.9 billion; memory USD 223.1 billion; regional growth; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026). Semiconductor Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, enacted 9 August 2022 (text of section 102 on Congress.gov, first 100,000 characters read: the funding lines for sections 9902 and 9906 of Public Law 116-283 by fiscal year 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, USD 50 billion in all; the totals are sums of the listed amounts, not stated in the text). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2023\/1781 of 13 September 2023 establishing a framework of measures for strengthening Europe\u2019s semiconductor ecosystem (Chips Act); the EUR-Lex fetch returned no text, cited from memory. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), home page and news items (May 2026 guidance on licences for advanced computing items to Country Group D:5 entities; 7 April 2026 extension of the authorised IC designer timeline to 31 December 2026; Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports listed). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Commerce, Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion, interim final rule, 90 Federal Register 4544, January 2025, cited from search summaries; the Federal Register page redirected. Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: law-firm client alerts on the rescission of the AI diffusion rule and related guidance, 12 and 13 May 2025, taken from search-result summaries; a formal notice date was not confirmed. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: JEDEC (ed.), JESD270-4 HBM4 standard, April 2025 (about 2 TB\/s per stack; 32 channels; up to 64 GB per stack), taken from search-result summaries; the JEDEC page returned an access error. JEDEC Solid State Technology Association, Arlington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>IEEE (ed.), International Roadmap for Devices and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a>, programme page (successor to the ITRS; IEEE sponsorship since 2016; 2023 update the latest edition listed). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of the Netherlands and Government of Japan, export-control rules on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, 2023, cited from memory; no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of India, Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, India Semiconductor Mission, the programme site returned an access error; cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The Register (ed.), Japan\u2019s Rapidus lands $1.7B to chase 2nm chip production by 2027, 27 February 2026 (JPY 267.6 billion round; JPY 100 billion from a METI agency; JPY 167.6 billion from 32 companies); trade press, weak evidence. Situation Publishing, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: METI and press coverage of the April 2026 addition of JPY 631.5 billion to Rapidus support, bringing research and development support to about JPY 2.354 trillion, taken from search-result summaries; totals differ by source. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), CHIPS for America program page (USD 50 billion; USD 39 billion manufacturing incentives; USD 11 billion research; award notices of 8 September, 16 September, 14 October and 22 October 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 systems from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sevilla, J., Heim, L., Ho, A., Besiroglu, T., Hobbhahn, M. and Villalobos, P., Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning, arXiv:2202.05924, 2022 (abstract page: doubling about every 20 months before 2010 and about every 6 months in the deep learning era). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Luccioni, A.S., Jernite, Y. and Strubell, E., Power Hungry Processing: Watts Driving the Cost of AI Deployment?, ACM FAccT 2024, arXiv:2311.16863 (abstract page: multi-purpose generative models orders of magnitude more costly per 1,000 inferences than task-specific models). ACM, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Patterson, D. and others, Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training, arXiv:2104.10350, April 2021 (abstract page: sparse models under one tenth of the energy; location effect 5 to 10 times; choice of model, datacentre and processor 100 to 1000 times). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Leiserson, C.E. and others, There\u2019s plenty of room at the Top: What will drive computer performance after Moore\u2019s law?, Science 368, eaam9744, 2020, taken from a reposted abstract in search results. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Koomey, J.G. and others, Implications of historical trends in the electrical efficiency of computing, IEEE Annals of the History of Computing 33(3), 46 to 54, 2011, cited from memory. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Masanet, E. and others, Recalibrating global data centre energy-use estimates, Science 367, 984 to 986, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Khan, S.M. and Mann, A., AI Chips: What They Are and Why They Matter, Center for Security and Emerging Technology, April 2020; the file fetched returned only a notice that the report was updated, so no content was read. Center for Security and Emerging Technology, Washington. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moore, G.E., Cramming more components onto integrated circuits, Electronics 38(8), 1965, cited from memory. Observation year 1965. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Dennard, R.H. and others, Design of ion-implanted MOSFET\u2019s with very small physical dimensions, IEEE Journal of Solid-State Circuits 9(5), 256 to 268, 1974, cited from memory. Observation year 1974. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Sevilla, J. and others, Can AI scaling continue through 2030?, Epoch AI, 20 August 2024 (first 100,000 characters read: about 4 times a year; 1 to 5 GW campuses; about 2e29 FLOP feasible by 2030; power binds first). Epoch AI, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Epoch AI (ed.), AI models data hub (page updated 3 November 2026; over 3,700 models; no growth rate stated on the page). Epoch AI, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (ed.), The 2025 AI Index Report, key takeaways page (training compute doubling about every five months; hardware cost down about 30% a year; energy efficiency up about 40% a year; chips detail not given on the page). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), CHIPS research and development programmes page (National Semiconductor Technology Center, National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program, Manufacturing USA institute; undated; no programme amounts). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Evertiq (ed.), Semiconductor equipment billings reached $135B in 2025, 9 April 2026, a trade report of a SEMI release (USD 135.06 billion in 2025 against USD 117.14 billion in 2024; regional table); the SEMI page itself returned an access error, so this is a secondary report and weak evidence. Evertiq, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Shehabi, A. and others, 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 2024 (publication page abstract only; no figures on the page; the report PDF was not read). Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, April 2025 (about 415 TWh of global data centre electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the total; about 945 TWh in 2030 in the base case; range of 700 to 1,700 TWh in 2035), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA pages returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Nvidia (ed.), Blackwell architecture product page (208 billion transistors per GPU; custom TSMC 4NP process; performance multiples are vendor claims and weak evidence). Nvidia, Santa Clara. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>AZFamily (ed.), TSMC Arizona expansion could make it Phoenix\u2019s largest water customer, 22 July 2026 (total planned investment USD 265 billion; about 5,300 acre-feet a year for the first fab; 65% reclaimed; goal 90%); local news reporting company figures, weak evidence. Gray Media, Phoenix. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Focus Taiwan, Central News Agency (ed.), report of 13 March 2026 on the largest foundry reaching almost 70% of the global foundry market in 2025 (headline and lead only; the rest is behind a paywall); press report, weak evidence. Central News Agency, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, gallium chapter (reported in summaries as about 99% of primary low-purity gallium produced in China in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error and no figure is used in the findings. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, germanium chapter, the page returned an access error; summaries differ on China shares and no figure is used. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 semiconductor and compute agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 semiconductor and compute edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How much power and cooling water do advanced fabrication plants and AI data centres need, on a common basis, and where do the limits fall?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT06-PWR-01 \u00b7 power and water footprint; first output: footprint estimates by site type.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">What advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory capacity exists, and in which places?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT06-PKG-02 \u00b7 packaging and memory; first output: capacity map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which equipment and materials are single points of failure for advanced chips?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT06-EQP-03 \u00b7 equipment and materials; first output: dependence map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How far have announced subsidies become delivered plants and output?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT06-SUB-04 \u00b7 subsidy delivery; first output: award and outlay table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How can chip, system and compute counts be compared on a common basis?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT06-BMK-05 \u00b7 counts on a common basis; first output: benchmark table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which national export-control and licensing rules apply to advanced computing items, and how do they differ?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: rule overlay.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">What workforce exists for fabrication, packaging and data centre operation?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real shortages or disruptions, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 semiconductor and compute portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT06-PWR-01<\/span><\/td><td>Power and water footprint<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>Q-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT06-PKG-02<\/span><\/td><td>Packaging and memory<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>Q-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT06-EQP-03<\/span><\/td><td>Equipment and materials<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>Q-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT06-SUB-04<\/span><\/td><td>Subsidy delivery<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>Q-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT06-BMK-05<\/span><\/td><td>Counts on a common basis<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>Q-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-XT06-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Local limits Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>Q-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The semiconductor edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, minerals and cybersecurity, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National readiness chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">fabrication, power and trade readiness in each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">IN PREPARATION \u00b7 national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Sector couplings<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">GS-02 energy \u00b7 SR-04 minerals \u00b7 SR-03 supply chains<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">GS-02 DRAFTED \u00b7 sector baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Technology system model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">fabrication, equipment, memory, power, water, governance<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">SR-13 strategic technology \u00b7 XT-07 HPC<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">XT-06 report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE DRAFT \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the semiconductor and compute candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the semiconductor and compute candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 global annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-XT06-2027-01 \u00b7 Local limits Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead: drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>AIC-001 \u00b7 AI supercomputer growth<\/td><td>INI-XT06-BMK-05<\/td><td>counts on a common basis<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-004 \u00b7 chip sales<\/td><td>INI-XT06-SUB-04<\/td><td>subsidy delivery<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-005 \u00b7 equipment billings<\/td><td>INI-XT06-EQP-03<\/td><td>equipment and materials<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>INF-006 \u00b7 foundry concentration<\/td><td>INI-XT06-PKG-02<\/td><td>packaging and memory<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENE-007 \u00b7 US data centre energy<\/td><td>INI-XT06-PWR-01 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td>power and water footprint<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GOV-010 \u00b7 EU Chips Act<\/td><td>regional consortia<\/td><td>rule overlay<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TRD-011 \u00b7 export controls<\/td><td>regional consortia<\/td><td>rule overlay<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-XT06-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CODES ARE NOT JOINS<\/p><p>Series codes in this edition (XT-06 and its relatives) are Reports codes. Codes in other indices can look alike. This edition makes no join on a code alone: a join needs a registry record that names both subjects.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIA monthly and annual sales releases<\/td><td>industry association<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>FIN-004<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Equipment billings releases<\/td><td>SEMI<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>FIN-005<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NIST CHIPS award pages (post-close, context only)<\/td><td>NIST<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>GOV-009<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>European Commission Chips Act pages<\/td><td>European Commission<\/td><td>per release<\/td><td>GOV-010<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US export-control notices<\/td><td>US Department of Commerce<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>TRD-011<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WSTS forecasts<\/td><td>WSTS<\/td><td>twice a year<\/td><td>FIN-004<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Epoch AI data and reports<\/td><td>research organisation<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>AIC-002<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-XT06-001<\/td><td>AI supercomputer performance doubling about every nine months<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>AIC \u00b7 INF<\/td><td>research question Q-05<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-XT06-002<\/td><td>US data centre electricity projected at 325 to 580 TWh by 2028<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>ENE \u00b7 AIC<\/td><td>research question Q-01<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-XT06-003<\/td><td>EU second Chips Act proposed in June 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>GOV \u00b7 INF<\/td><td>initiative Q-04<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c7-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>12 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>31 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Compute hardware and fabrication<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">AI compute is built from advanced logic and memory chips made in a few clusters. Market figures are strong; counts of chips and capacity by place are thin.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">791.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>global semiconductor sales, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">301.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>logic sales, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">months<\/span><p>AI supercomputer performance doubling<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Logic and memory<\/td><td>logic USD 301.9 billion and memory USD 223.1 billion of sales in 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AI supercomputers<\/td><td>performance doubling about every nine months; one 2025 system used about 200,000 chips<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Foundry concentration<\/td><td>press reports give the largest foundry nearly 70% of 2025 foundry sales; about 74% of its wafer revenue came from 7 nanometre and smaller nodes<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Vendor products<\/td><td>one vendor lists 208 billion transistors per accelerator on a custom 4NP process; a vendor claim<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>INF \u2194 FIN sales and plants<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 INF demand<\/li><li>TRD \u2192 INF controls<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>chip and accelerator volumes by type<\/li><li>fabrication capacity by country<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Annual reports of foundries; SIA and WSTS releases; peer-reviewed trend updates.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-07 HPC and Advanced Computing<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes published figures and company statements. It endorses no company or product and forecasts no sales.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Energy, power and water<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Compute and fabrication need electricity and cooling water. US data centre use is documented; plant water use is reported by single companies.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">176<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">TWh<\/span><p>US data centre electricity, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">325 to 580<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">TWh<\/span><p>US projection for 2028<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1 to 5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">GW<\/span><p>campus size likely possible by 2030, Epoch AI estimate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Data centre electricity<\/td><td>US use 176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4% of national electricity<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global data centre electricity<\/td><td>about 415 TWh in 2024 and about 945 TWh in 2030 in the IEA base case, from search summaries<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Efficiency<\/td><td>hardware efficiency rose about 40% a year; sparse models can use under a tenth of the energy of dense ones<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fab water<\/td><td>one company reports about 5,300 acre-feet a year for one fab and a 65% reclamation rate<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>AIC \u2192 ENE load growth<\/li><li>ENE \u2194 WAT cooling and process water<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 CLI emissions<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>plant and data centre water use<\/li><li>global electricity series from the report itself<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>National statistics; IEA releases; site-level power and water disclosures; utility connection records.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-07 HPC and Advanced Computing<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes physical dependencies. It assesses no company, utility or site.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Equipment, memory and materials<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Chips depend on specialised tools, memory stacks and minerals. Equipment billings are documented through a trade report; materials figures are not bound.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">135.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>equipment billings, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224879<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>share in China, Taiwan and Korea, derived<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">90<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>growth of equipment billings in Taiwan, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Equipment billings<\/td><td>USD 135.1 billion in 2025, up 15%; North America down 20% and Europe down 41%<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lithography<\/td><td>Moore observed doubling in 1965 and revised the pace in 1975; the equipment maker states EUV gives the highest resolution<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Memory<\/td><td>a high-bandwidth memory standard was published in 2025; details come from search summaries<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Minor minerals<\/td><td>gallium and germanium are used in chips and concentrated in primary production; primary figures not bound<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>TRD \u2192 INF tools and controls<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 INF materials<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 INF equipment spend<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>packaging and memory capacity by country<\/li><li>gallium and germanium figures from the primary source<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Quarterly equipment releases; memory standards; mineral statistics and export notices.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-07 HPC and Advanced Computing<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes supply dependencies in public sources. It assesses no company, state or export-control decision.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Economy, investment and workforce<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Sales and public programmes are large and well documented. Outlays and workforce numbers are the thin parts of the evidence.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">25.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>growth of global chip sales, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">50<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>CHIPS and Science Act programmes<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">33<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">EUR billion<\/span><p>public and private investment across 19 State aid decisions, EU<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sales<\/td><td>USD 791.7 billion in 2025; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026 by SIA<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US programmes<\/td><td>USD 39 billion for manufacturing and USD 11 billion for research; award outlays not bound at the close<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU programmes<\/td><td>more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second act proposed June 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Japan and India<\/td><td>Rapidus round of JPY 267.6 billion in 2026; India mission listed<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FIN \u2192 INF plants and tools<\/li><li>GOV \u2192 FIN subsidy flows<\/li><li>HLT \u2192 INF workforce<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>subsidy outlays against awards<\/li><li>workforce size and skills gaps<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>WSTS forecasts; award notices (post-close, context only); the EU second Chips Act; national programme updates.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-07 HPC and Advanced Computing<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes sales and programmes as reported. It gives no investment advice and endorses no company.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Security, export controls and governance watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Export controls and subsidies now shape the supply chain. Rules change at short notice, so the watch follows the rule texts.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2023<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">year<\/span><p>EU Chips Act entered into force on 21 September<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2026<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">year<\/span><p>US licence guidance for D:5 entities, May<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2026<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">year<\/span><p>EU second Chips Act proposed, June<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>US controls<\/td><td>licence required for advanced computing items to entities headquartered in Country Group D:5; Section 232 investigation listed<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Diffusion rule<\/td><td>framework published in January 2025 and rescinded in May 2025, per law-firm summaries<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Allied controls<\/td><td>Netherlands and Japan control lithography equipment, cited from memory<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU governance<\/td><td>three pillars and a European Semiconductor Board; second act proposed<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>TRD \u2192 INF controls<\/li><li>GOV \u2192 FIN subsidy flows<\/li><li>INF \u2192 DAT hardware supply<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>text of the second Chips Act<\/li><li>licence statistics<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Federal Register notices; the Section 232 outcome; EU adoption of the second act; allied control updates.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-03 Global Supply Chains, Trade and Chokepoints<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-01 Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-07 HPC and Advanced Computing<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes rules in public sources. It confers no certification on any product and assesses no government or company.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association (ed.), Global Annual Semiconductor Sales Increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (release; WSTS data; logic USD 301.9 billion; memory USD 223.1 billion; regional growth; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026). Semiconductor Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Focus Taiwan, Central News Agency (ed.), report of 13 March 2026 on the largest foundry reaching almost 70% of the global foundry market in 2025 (headline and lead only; the rest is behind a paywall); press report, weak evidence. Central News Agency, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: TrendForce (ed.), 2025 foundry ranking (largest foundry sales about USD 122.5 billion and a share of about 69.9%), taken from press coverage in search results. TrendForce, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: TSMC (ed.), fourth-quarter 2025 results (about 74% of 2025 wafer revenue from 7 nanometre and smaller nodes against 69% in 2024), taken from press coverage in search results; sources differ on the quarterly share. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Hsinchu. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Nvidia (ed.), Blackwell architecture product page (208 billion transistors per GPU; custom TSMC 4NP process; performance multiples are vendor claims and weak evidence). Nvidia, Santa Clara. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Sevilla, J. and others, Can AI scaling continue through 2030?, Epoch AI, 20 August 2024 (first 100,000 characters read: about 4 times a year; 1 to 5 GW campuses; about 2e29 FLOP feasible by 2030; power binds first). Epoch AI, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Shehabi, A. and others, 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 2024 (publication page abstract only; no figures on the page; the report PDF was not read). Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, April 2025 (about 415 TWh of global data centre electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the total; about 945 TWh in 2030 in the base case; range of 700 to 1,700 TWh in 2035), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA pages returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (ed.), The 2025 AI Index Report, key takeaways page (training compute doubling about every five months; hardware cost down about 30% a year; energy efficiency up about 40% a year; chips detail not given on the page). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Patterson, D. and others, Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training, arXiv:2104.10350, April 2021 (abstract page: sparse models under one tenth of the energy; location effect 5 to 10 times; choice of model, datacentre and processor 100 to 1000 times). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>AZFamily (ed.), TSMC Arizona expansion could make it Phoenix\u2019s largest water customer, 22 July 2026 (total planned investment USD 265 billion; about 5,300 acre-feet a year for the first fab; 65% reclaimed; goal 90%); local news reporting company figures, weak evidence. Gray Media, Phoenix. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Evertiq (ed.), Semiconductor equipment billings reached $135B in 2025, 9 April 2026, a trade report of a SEMI release (USD 135.06 billion in 2025 against USD 117.14 billion in 2024; regional table); the SEMI page itself returned an access error, so this is a secondary report and weak evidence. Evertiq, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>ASML (ed.), Moore\u2019s law explainer page (Moore observation of 1965 and revision of 1975; statement that EUV gives the highest resolution; no High-NA content on the page). ASML, Veldhoven. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moore, G.E., Cramming more components onto integrated circuits, Electronics 38(8), 1965, cited from memory. Observation year 1965. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: JEDEC (ed.), JESD270-4 HBM4 standard, April 2025 (about 2 TB\/s per stack; 32 channels; up to 64 GB per stack), taken from search-result summaries; the JEDEC page returned an access error. JEDEC Solid State Technology Association, Arlington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, gallium chapter (reported in summaries as about 99% of primary low-purity gallium produced in China in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error and no figure is used in the findings. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, germanium chapter, the page returned an access error; summaries differ on China shares and no figure is used. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, cited from the XT-02 notes of this series, not read for this edition; no figure is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, enacted 9 August 2022 (text of section 102 on Congress.gov, first 100,000 characters read: the funding lines for sections 9902 and 9906 of Public Law 116-283 by fiscal year 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, USD 50 billion in all; the totals are sums of the listed amounts, not stated in the text). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), CHIPS research and development programmes page (National Semiconductor Technology Center, National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program, Manufacturing USA institute; undated; no programme amounts). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The Register (ed.), Japan\u2019s Rapidus lands $1.7B to chase 2nm chip production by 2027, 27 February 2026 (JPY 267.6 billion round; JPY 100 billion from a METI agency; JPY 167.6 billion from 32 companies); trade press, weak evidence. Situation Publishing, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of India, Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, India Semiconductor Mission, the programme site returned an access error; cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: METI and press coverage of the April 2026 addition of JPY 631.5 billion to Rapidus support, bringing research and development support to about JPY 2.354 trillion, taken from search-result summaries; totals differ by source. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), home page and news items (May 2026 guidance on licences for advanced computing items to Country Group D:5 entities; 7 April 2026 extension of the authorised IC designer timeline to 31 December 2026; Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports listed). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Commerce, Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion, interim final rule, 90 Federal Register 4544, January 2025, cited from search summaries; the Federal Register page redirected. Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: law-firm client alerts on the rescission of the AI diffusion rule and related guidance, 12 and 13 May 2025, taken from search-result summaries; a formal notice date was not confirmed. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of the Netherlands and Government of Japan, export-control rules on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, 2023, cited from memory; no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2023\/1781 of 13 September 2023 establishing a framework of measures for strengthening Europe\u2019s semiconductor ecosystem (Chips Act); the EUR-Lex fetch returned no text, cited from memory. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-c8-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>14 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>19 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Share of 2025 equipment billings in China, Taiwan and Korea<\/td><td>(49.31 + 31.50 + 25.75) \u00f7 135.06<\/td><td>\u2248 79%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Logic and memory share of 2025 chip sales<\/td><td>(301.9 + 223.1) \u00f7 791.7<\/td><td>\u2248 66%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Site power per chip for the largest 2025 system in the dataset<\/td><td>300 MW \u00f7 200,000 chips<\/td><td>\u2248 1.5 kW per chip, whole-site<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Ratio of the 2028 projection to 2023 US data centre use<\/td><td>325 \u00f7 176 and 580 \u00f7 176<\/td><td>1.8 to 3.3 times<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Semiconductor and compute System Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-XT06-SEMICONDUCTORS \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent advanced semiconductors and AI compute as infrastructure coupled to electricity, cooling water, materials, finance, workforce and export controls<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">18<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the physical footprint and policy setting of advanced chips and AI compute.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>44 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 semiconductor and compute annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Semiconductor and compute System Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>AI supercomputer dataset<\/td><td>2019 to 2025<\/td><td>Apr 2025<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>updates<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Training compute report<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Aug 2024<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>revisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Semiconductor sales<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Feb 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next annual release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Equipment billings<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Apr 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next annual release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US data centre energy<\/td><td>2023 and 2028 scenarios<\/td><td>Dec 2024<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next national update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CHIPS awards<\/td><td>not bound at close<\/td><td>post-close, context only: Sep to Oct 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>next awards<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU Chips Act<\/td><td>2023 and 2026<\/td><td>Jun 2026 proposal<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>adoption<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Export-control guidance<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>May 2026<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>next notice<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Compute<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>counts on a common basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Market<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>primary equipment data<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Governance<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>text of the second Chips Act<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Investment<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>subsidy outlays<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>fab and non-US data centre power<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>fab and data centre water use<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Skills<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>workforce numbers<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Packaging and memory<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>capacity by country<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Power and cooling-water use of fabrication plants on a common basis<\/td><td>company reports, regulators, peer-reviewed footprint studies<\/td><td>single-company figures only; one fab figure read in local news<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water use of AI data centres<\/td><td>operators, utilities, national statistics<\/td><td>not retrieved; the Berkeley Lab report page gave no water figure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global data centre electricity figures from the IEA report itself<\/td><td>IEA Energy and AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the IEA page returned an access error; figures come from search summaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Foundry market share from a primary market-research source<\/td><td>TrendForce report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup> and the TSMC annual report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>press coverage only; the annual report was listed but not read; sources differ in scope<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Advanced packaging and high-bandwidth memory capacity by country<\/td><td>industry and trade statistics<\/td><td>not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Equipment dependence by country and tool type<\/td><td>SEMI data, company filings, trade statistics<\/td><td>regional billings read only through a trade report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gallium and germanium production and supply from the primary source<\/td><td>USGS Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the USGS pages returned an access error; no figure used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Delivered outlays against announced subsidy awards<\/td><td>NIST, European Commission, national ministries<\/td><td>award outlays not bound at the close; outlays not published in one series<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Text of the EU second Chips Act proposal<\/td><td>European Commission legal text<\/td><td>the page states the proposal; the text was not opened<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rapidus and other national programme totals from ministry sources<\/td><td>METI and national ministries<\/td><td>trade press only; totals differ by source<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chip and AI accelerator volumes by type<\/td><td>company filings, market research<\/td><td>not retrieved; vendor claims are not used<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Semiconductor workforce size and skills gaps<\/td><td>national statistics, OECD, industry surveys<\/td><td>not retrieved; capability rung stays LISTED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WSTS forecast values for 2026 and 2027<\/td><td>WSTS forecast releases<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the home page was read; it carries no forecast text<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs beyond monitoring and planning<\/td><td>agencies, operators, laboratories<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Preprint arXiv 2504.16026 by Pilz, Sanders, Rahman and Heim, April 2025. One-off dataset of 500 systems. Role: binds AIC-001 and the lead figure. Coverage: systems from 2019 to 2025.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-XT06-001<\/h3><p>Trends in AI Supercomputers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the Semiconductor Industry Association in 2026 from WSTS data. Annual. Role: binds FIN-004 and the market tiles. Coverage: world sales by product category and region.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-XT06-002<\/h3><p>SIA release on 2025 sales<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-XT06-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-XT06-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> visible in public sources only<\/td><td>all WSTS members; world total<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about one year of lag in the dataset<\/td><td>issued within weeks of year end<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>preprint versions<\/td><td>later forecasts may revise totals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>dataset method described<\/td><td>compiled by WSTS from member reports<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>preprint, not yet peer reviewed here<\/td><td>industry statistics, no peer review<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Pilz and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>: publication status and dataset updates<\/li><li>US Department of Commerce<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>: rule texts behind the May 2026 guidance<\/li><li>European Commission<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>: second Chips Act proposal text<\/li><li>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>: global data centre figures from the report<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>BIS<\/td><td>Bureau of Industry and Security<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CHIPS<\/td><td>Creating Helpful Incentives to Produce Semiconductors<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D:5<\/td><td>Country Group D:5 of the US export regulations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DOE<\/td><td>US Department of Energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FLOP<\/td><td>floating-point operations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HBM<\/td><td>high-bandwidth memory<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IRDS<\/td><td>International Roadmap for Devices and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SEMI<\/td><td>semiconductor equipment and materials association<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIA<\/td><td>Semiconductor Industry Association<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TWh<\/td><td>terawatt-hour<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WSTS<\/td><td>World Semiconductor Trade Statistics<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EUV<\/td><td>extreme ultraviolet lithography<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-XT06-PWR-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Cluster notes<\/td><td>cards for the major fabrication and compute clusters<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: doubling time<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>time for a measured quantity to double under a fitted exponential trend<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>months<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>regression of the quantity on date across <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> or models<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>preprint arXiv 2504.16026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; preprint arXiv 2202.05924<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>depends on dataset coverage and period; not stated as one value in the abstracts read<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>a historical fit, not a forecast; data come from public disclosures<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), CHIPS for America program page (USD 50 billion; USD 39 billion manufacturing incentives; USD 11 billion research; award notices of 8 September, 16 September, 14 October and 22 October 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>AZFamily (ed.), TSMC Arizona expansion could make it Phoenix\u2019s largest water customer, 22 July 2026 (total planned investment USD 265 billion; about 5,300 acre-feet a year for the first fab; 65% reclaimed; goal 90%); local news reporting company figures, weak evidence. Gray Media, Phoenix. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Shehabi, A. and others, 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 2024 (publication page abstract only; no figures on the page; the report PDF was not read). Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, April 2025 (about 415 TWh of global data centre electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the total; about 945 TWh in 2030 in the base case; range of 700 to 1,700 TWh in 2035), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA pages returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: TrendForce (ed.), 2025 foundry ranking (largest foundry sales about USD 122.5 billion and a share of about 69.9%), taken from press coverage in search results. TrendForce, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>TSMC (ed.), Annual reports page of investor relations (2025 Annual Report and Form 20-F filed 17 April 2026 listed; the reports themselves were not read). Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Hsinchu. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Evertiq (ed.), Semiconductor equipment billings reached $135B in 2025, 9 April 2026, a trade report of a SEMI release (USD 135.06 billion in 2025 against USD 117.14 billion in 2024; regional table); the SEMI page itself returned an access error, so this is a secondary report and weak evidence. Evertiq, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, gallium chapter (reported in summaries as about 99% of primary low-purity gallium produced in China in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error and no figure is used in the findings. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, germanium chapter, the page returned an access error; summaries differ on China shares and no figure is used. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, enacted 9 August 2022 (text of section 102 on Congress.gov, first 100,000 characters read: the funding lines for sections 9902 and 9906 of Public Law 116-283 by fiscal year 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, USD 50 billion in all; the totals are sums of the listed amounts, not stated in the text). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The Register (ed.), Japan\u2019s Rapidus lands $1.7B to chase 2nm chip production by 2027, 27 February 2026 (JPY 267.6 billion round; JPY 100 billion from a METI agency; JPY 167.6 billion from 32 companies); trade press, weak evidence. Situation Publishing, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: METI and press coverage of the April 2026 addition of JPY 631.5 billion to Rapidus support, bringing research and development support to about JPY 2.354 trillion, taken from search-result summaries; totals differ by source. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Nvidia (ed.), Blackwell architecture product page (208 billion transistors per GPU; custom TSMC 4NP process; performance multiples are vendor claims and weak evidence). Nvidia, Santa Clara. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: WSTS (ed.), World Semiconductor Trade Statistics home page (73rd forecast conference planned for 16 to 19 November 2026; billings data through August 2026; no forecast values in the text of the page). WSTS, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association (ed.), Global Annual Semiconductor Sales Increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (release; WSTS data; logic USD 301.9 billion; memory USD 223.1 billion; regional growth; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026). Semiconductor Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), home page and news items (May 2026 guidance on licences for advanced computing items to Country Group D:5 entities; 7 April 2026 extension of the authorised IC designer timeline to 31 December 2026; Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports listed). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sevilla, J., Heim, L., Ho, A., Besiroglu, T., Hobbhahn, M. and Villalobos, P., Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning, arXiv:2202.05924, 2022 (abstract page: doubling about every 20 months before 2010 and about every 6 months in the deep learning era). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>10 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global semiconductor sales<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">791.7<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Growth in global sales<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">25.6<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Logic sales<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">301.9<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Memory sales<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">223.1<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Equipment billings<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">135.1<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Equipment billings, China<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">49.3<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Equipment billings, Taiwan<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">31.5<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AI supercomputer performance <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 doubling-time\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The time a quantity growing at a constant proportional rate takes to double; short doubling times compress the window for action.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">doubling time<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">9<\/span><\/td><td>months<\/td><td>2019 to 2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Power need of largest system, March 2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">300<\/span><\/td><td>MW<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Training compute growth<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u22484<\/span><\/td><td>times per year<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US data centre electricity use<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">176<\/span><\/td><td>TWh<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US data centre projection, low<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">325<\/span><\/td><td>TWh<\/td><td>2028<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US data centre projection, high<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">580<\/span><\/td><td>TWh<\/td><td>2028<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CHIPS and Science Act programmes<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">50<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Chips found in one vendor GPU, vendor claim<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">208<\/span><\/td><td>billion transistors<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water use of one Arizona fab, company figure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">5,300<\/span><\/td><td>acre-feet per year<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0AGlobal%20semiconductor%20sales%2C791.7%2CUSD%20billion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B8%5D%0AGrowth%20in%20global%20sales%2C25.6%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B8%5D%0ALogic%20sales%2C301.9%2CUSD%20billion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B8%5D%0AMemory%20sales%2C223.1%2CUSD%20billion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B8%5D%0AEquipment%20billings%2C135.1%2CUSD%20billion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0A%22Equipment%20billings%2C%20China%22%2C49.3%2CUSD%20billion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0A%22Equipment%20billings%2C%20Taiwan%22%2C31.5%2CUSD%20billion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0AAI%20supercomputer%20performance%20doubling%20time%2C9%2Cmonths%2C2019%20to%202025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Power%20need%20of%20largest%20system%2C%20March%202025%22%2C300%2CMW%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0ATraining%20compute%20growth%2C%E2%89%884%2Ctimes%20per%20year%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0AUS%20data%20centre%20electricity%20use%2C176%2CTWh%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0A%22US%20data%20centre%20projection%2C%20low%22%2C325%2CTWh%2C2028%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B15%5D%0A%22US%20data%20centre%20projection%2C%20high%22%2C580%2CTWh%2C2028%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B15%5D%0ACHIPS%20and%20Science%20Act%20programmes%2C50%2CUSD%20billion%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B44%5D%0A%22Chips%20found%20in%20one%20vendor%20GPU%2C%20vendor%20claim%22%2C208%2Cbillion%20transistors%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B19%5D%0A%22Water%20use%20of%20one%20Arizona%20fab%2C%20company%20figure%22%2C%225%2C300%22%2Cacre-feet%20per%20year%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B23%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Exponential%20Technology%20Report%202026%3A%20Advanced%20Semiconductors%20and%20AI%20Compute%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20semiconductor%20sales%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22791.7%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Growth%20in%20global%20sales%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2225.6%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Logic%20sales%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22301.9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Memory%20sales%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22223.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Equipment%20billings%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22135.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Equipment%20billings%2C%20China%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2249.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Equipment%20billings%2C%20Taiwan%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2231.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22AI%20supercomputer%20performance%20doubling%20time%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%229%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22months%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222019%20to%202025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Power%20need%20of%20largest%20system%2C%20March%202025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22300%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22MW%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Training%20compute%20growth%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%884%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22times%20per%20year%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22US%20data%20centre%20electricity%20use%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22176%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22TWh%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22US%20data%20centre%20projection%2C%20low%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22325%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22TWh%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222028%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22US%20data%20centre%20projection%2C%20high%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22580%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22TWh%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222028%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22CHIPS%20and%20Science%20Act%20programmes%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2250%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B44%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Chips%20found%20in%20one%20vendor%20GPU%2C%20vendor%20claim%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22208%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22billion%20transistors%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B19%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Water%20use%20of%20one%20Arizona%20fab%2C%20company%20figure%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%225%2C300%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22acre-feet%20per%20year%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B23%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Values are rounded as published. Projections are labelled SCENARIO. Vendor, local-news and search-summary values are weak evidence, carry a note in the reference list and are listed in the notes. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">AIC<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>AI supercomputer preprint<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>preprint server<\/td><td>global dataset<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>compute trends<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Epoch AI report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>research organisation<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>limits to 2030<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIA release<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>industry association<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>sales<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trade report of SEMI data<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>trade press<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>equipment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NIST CHIPS R&amp;D programmes page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national agency<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>programmes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>European Commission page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU institution<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>policy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIS page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national agency<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>export controls<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Berkeley Lab report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national laboratory<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>2023 to 2024<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA Energy and AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TrendForce and press<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>market research and press<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>foundry share<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, semiconductor and compute across ten clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of semiconductor and compute infrastructure in table form and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, semiconductor and compute across ten clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td>federal subsidy programme; large AI supercomputer share<\/td><td>compute, power<\/td><td>NIST<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup>; preprint<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; Berkeley Lab<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>early programmes; compute demand<\/td><td>power<\/td><td>regional evidence (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>EU Chips Act and second proposal<\/td><td>fabrication policy<\/td><td>European Commission<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>export-control exposure<\/td><td>trade<\/td><td>regional evidence (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td>licensing and compute investment; export-control easing noted<\/td><td>trade, power<\/td><td>BIS page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>skills and access<\/td><td>workforce<\/td><td>regional evidence (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>national semiconductor mission<\/td><td>fabrication policy<\/td><td>programme listing<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>fabrication and equipment spending; national programmes<\/td><td>fabrication, equipment<\/td><td>trade report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>; press<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>packaging and assembly partners<\/td><td>supply<\/td><td>regional evidence (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>research programmes<\/td><td>research<\/td><td>regional evidence (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Cluster card: advanced fabrication in East Asia<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">fabrication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">equipment<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">foundry<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">single cluster<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>foundry fabrication, equipment purchases, packaging, memory<\/dd><dt>Defining events<\/dt><dd>equipment spending in Taiwan up 90% in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>FIN \u2192 INF equipment; TRD \u2192 INF controls<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>new plants announced under national programmes<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>packaging capacity; plant power and water use<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>Q-02 \u00b7 Q-03<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">China, Taiwan and Korea took about 79% of 2025 equipment billings, a derivation from a trade report of SEMI data [9].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">SUPPLY<\/h3><p>Equipment concentration<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Press reports give the largest foundry nearly 70% of the global foundry market in 2025; the figure is secondary [22].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">MARKET<\/h3><p>One large foundry<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Programmes in the United States, the EU and Japan fund new capacity. Delivered output is not documented here [44] [12] [21].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">RESPONSE<\/h3><p>New plants elsewhere<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Cluster cards are generated for the major fabrication and compute clusters in 2027. The East Asian fabrication cluster is shown first because its equipment spending is documented.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the semiconductor and compute edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the semiconductor edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the semiconductor and compute edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association (ed.), Global Annual Semiconductor Sales Increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (release; WSTS data; logic USD 301.9 billion; memory USD 223.1 billion; regional growth; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026). Semiconductor Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Evertiq (ed.), Semiconductor equipment billings reached $135B in 2025, 9 April 2026, a trade report of a SEMI release (USD 135.06 billion in 2025 against USD 117.14 billion in 2024; regional table); the SEMI page itself returned an access error, so this is a secondary report and weak evidence. Evertiq, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Sevilla, J. and others, Can AI scaling continue through 2030?, Epoch AI, 20 August 2024 (first 100,000 characters read: about 4 times a year; 1 to 5 GW campuses; about 2e29 FLOP feasible by 2030; power binds first). Epoch AI, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, enacted 9 August 2022 (text of section 102 on Congress.gov, first 100,000 characters read: the funding lines for sections 9902 and 9906 of Public Law 116-283 by fiscal year 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, USD 50 billion in all; the totals are sums of the listed amounts, not stated in the text). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Nvidia (ed.), Blackwell architecture product page (208 billion transistors per GPU; custom TSMC 4NP process; performance multiples are vendor claims and weak evidence). Nvidia, Santa Clara. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>AZFamily (ed.), TSMC Arizona expansion could make it Phoenix\u2019s largest water customer, 22 July 2026 (total planned investment USD 265 billion; about 5,300 acre-feet a year for the first fab; 65% reclaimed; goal 90%); local news reporting company figures, weak evidence. Gray Media, Phoenix. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), CHIPS research and development programmes page (National Semiconductor Technology Center, National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program, Manufacturing USA institute; undated; no programme amounts). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), home page and news items (May 2026 guidance on licences for advanced computing items to Country Group D:5 entities; 7 April 2026 extension of the authorised IC designer timeline to 31 December 2026; Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports listed). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, April 2025 (about 415 TWh of global data centre electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the total; about 945 TWh in 2030 in the base case; range of 700 to 1,700 TWh in 2035), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA pages returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Focus Taiwan, Central News Agency (ed.), report of 13 March 2026 on the largest foundry reaching almost 70% of the global foundry market in 2025 (headline and lead only; the rest is behind a paywall); press report, weak evidence. Central News Agency, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: TrendForce (ed.), 2025 foundry ranking (largest foundry sales about USD 122.5 billion and a share of about 69.9%), taken from press coverage in search results. TrendForce, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: TSMC (ed.), fourth-quarter 2025 results (about 74% of 2025 wafer revenue from 7 nanometre and smaller nodes against 69% in 2024), taken from press coverage in search results; sources differ on the quarterly share. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Hsinchu. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of India, Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, India Semiconductor Mission, the programme site returned an access error; cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The Register (ed.), Japan\u2019s Rapidus lands $1.7B to chase 2nm chip production by 2027, 27 February 2026 (JPY 267.6 billion round; JPY 100 billion from a METI agency; JPY 167.6 billion from 32 companies); trade press, weak evidence. Situation Publishing, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-06-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\">Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>15 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>44 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Pilz, K.F., Sanders, J., Rahman, R. and Heim, L., Trends in AI Supercomputers, arXiv:2504.16026, submitted 22 April 2025 (abstract page: 500 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> from 2019 to 2025; performance doubling about every nine months; cost and power doubling about every year; one March 2025 system with about 200,000 chips, USD 7 billion and 300 MW; about 75% of performance in the United States). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Sevilla, J., Heim, L., Ho, A., Besiroglu, T., Hobbhahn, M. and Villalobos, P., Compute Trends Across Three Eras of Machine Learning, arXiv:2202.05924, 2022 (abstract page: doubling about every 20 months before 2010 and about every 6 months in the deep learning era). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Sevilla, J. and others, Can AI scaling continue through 2030?, Epoch AI, 20 August 2024 (first 100,000 characters read: about 4 times a year; 1 to 5 GW campuses; about 2e29 FLOP feasible by 2030; power binds first). Epoch AI, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: Epoch AI (ed.), AI models data hub (page updated 3 November 2026; over 3,700 models; no growth rate stated on the page). Epoch AI, San Francisco. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered AI (ed.), The 2025 AI Index Report, key takeaways page (training compute doubling about every five months; hardware cost down about 30% a year; energy efficiency up about 40% a year; chips detail not given on the page). Stanford University, Stanford. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Luccioni, A.S., Jernite, Y. and Strubell, E., Power Hungry Processing: Watts Driving the Cost of AI Deployment?, ACM FAccT 2024, arXiv:2311.16863 (abstract page: multi-purpose generative models orders of magnitude more costly per 1,000 inferences than task-specific models). ACM, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Patterson, D. and others, Carbon Emissions and Large Neural Network Training, arXiv:2104.10350, April 2021 (abstract page: sparse models under one tenth of the energy; location effect 5 to 10 times; choice of model, datacentre and processor 100 to 1000 times). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association (ed.), Global Annual Semiconductor Sales Increase 25.6% to $791.7 Billion in 2025 (release; WSTS data; logic USD 301.9 billion; memory USD 223.1 billion; regional growth; about USD 1 trillion projected for 2026). Semiconductor Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Evertiq (ed.), Semiconductor equipment billings reached $135B in 2025, 9 April 2026, a trade report of a SEMI release (USD 135.06 billion in 2025 against USD 117.14 billion in 2024; regional table); the SEMI page itself returned an access error, so this is a secondary report and weak evidence. Evertiq, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: NIST (ed.), CHIPS for America program page (USD 50 billion; USD 39 billion manufacturing incentives; USD 11 billion research; award notices of 8 September, 16 September, 14 October and 22 October 2026). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), CHIPS research and development programmes page (National Semiconductor Technology Center, National Advanced Packaging Manufacturing Program, Manufacturing USA institute; undated; no programme amounts). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Chips Act policy page (entered into force 21 September 2023; three pillars; more than EUR 33 billion across 19 State aid decisions; second Chips Act proposed June 2026). Directorate-General for Communications Networks, Content and Technology, Brussels. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>US Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), home page and news items (May 2026 guidance on licences for advanced computing items to Country Group D:5 entities; 7 April 2026 extension of the authorised IC designer timeline to 31 December 2026; Section 232 investigation of semiconductor imports listed). BIS, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>IEEE (ed.), International Roadmap for Devices and Systems, programme page (successor to the ITRS; IEEE sponsorship since 2016; 2023 update the latest edition listed). Institute of Electrical and Electronics Engineers, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>US Department of Energy (ed.), DOE Releases New Report Evaluating Increase in Electricity Demand from Data Centers, 20 December 2024 (176 TWh in 2023, about 4.4%; 325 to 580 TWh, about 6.7% to 12%, in 2028). US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Shehabi, A. and others, 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, December 2024 (publication page abstract only; no figures on the page; the report PDF was not read). Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>TSMC (ed.), Annual reports page of investor relations (2025 Annual Report and Form 20-F filed 17 April 2026 listed; the reports themselves were not read). Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Hsinchu. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: WSTS (ed.), World Semiconductor Trade Statistics home page (73rd forecast conference planned for 16 to 19 November 2026; billings data through August 2026; no forecast values in the text of the page). WSTS, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>Nvidia (ed.), Blackwell architecture product page (208 billion transistors per GPU; custom TSMC 4NP process; performance multiples are vendor claims and weak evidence). Nvidia, Santa Clara. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>ASML (ed.), Moore\u2019s law explainer page (Moore observation of 1965 and revision of 1975; statement that EUV gives the highest resolution; no High-NA content on the page). ASML, Veldhoven. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>The Register (ed.), Japan\u2019s Rapidus lands $1.7B to chase 2nm chip production by 2027, 27 February 2026 (JPY 267.6 billion round; JPY 100 billion from a METI agency; JPY 167.6 billion from 32 companies); trade press, weak evidence. Situation Publishing, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Focus Taiwan, Central News Agency (ed.), report of 13 March 2026 on the largest foundry reaching almost 70% of the global foundry market in 2025 (headline and lead only; the rest is behind a paywall); press report, weak evidence. Central News Agency, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>AZFamily (ed.), TSMC Arizona expansion could make it Phoenix\u2019s largest water customer, 22 July 2026 (total planned investment USD 265 billion; about 5,300 acre-feet a year for the first fab; 65% reclaimed; goal 90%); local news reporting company figures, weak evidence. Gray Media, Phoenix. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy and AI, April 2025 (about 415 TWh of global data centre electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the total; about 945 TWh in 2030 in the base case; range of 700 to 1,700 TWh in 2035), taken from search-result summaries; the IEA pages returned an access error. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, gallium chapter (reported in summaries as about 99% of primary low-purity gallium produced in China in 2025), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error and no figure is used in the findings. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026, germanium chapter, the page returned an access error; summaries differ on China shares and no figure is used. US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: TrendForce (ed.), 2025 foundry ranking (largest foundry sales about USD 122.5 billion and a share of about 69.9%), taken from press coverage in search results. TrendForce, Taipei. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: TSMC (ed.), fourth-quarter 2025 results (about 74% of 2025 wafer revenue from 7 nanometre and smaller nodes against 69% in 2024), taken from press coverage in search results; sources differ on the quarterly share. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company, Hsinchu. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Khan, S.M. and Mann, A., AI Chips: What They Are and Why They Matter, Center for Security and Emerging Technology, April 2020; the file fetched returned only a notice that the report was updated, so no content was read. Center for Security and Emerging Technology, Washington. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Commerce, Framework for Artificial Intelligence Diffusion, interim final rule, 90 Federal Register 4544, January 2025, cited from search summaries; the Federal Register page redirected. Federal Register, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: law-firm client alerts on the rescission of the AI diffusion rule and related guidance, 12 and 13 May 2025, taken from search-result summaries; a formal notice date was not confirmed. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: JEDEC (ed.), JESD270-4 HBM4 standard, April 2025 (about 2 TB\/s per stack; 32 channels; up to 64 GB per stack), taken from search-result summaries; the JEDEC page returned an access error. JEDEC Solid State Technology Association, Arlington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2023\/1781 of 13 September 2023 establishing a framework of measures for strengthening Europe\u2019s semiconductor ecosystem (Chips Act); the EUR-Lex fetch returned no text, cited from memory. Publications Office of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Leiserson, C.E. and others, There\u2019s plenty of room at the Top: What will drive computer performance after Moore\u2019s law?, Science 368, eaam9744, 2020, taken from a reposted abstract in search results. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Moore, G.E., Cramming more components onto integrated circuits, Electronics 38(8), 1965, cited from memory. Observation year 1965. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Dennard, R.H. and others, Design of ion-implanted MOSFET\u2019s with very small physical dimensions, IEEE Journal of Solid-State Circuits 9(5), 256 to 268, 1974, cited from memory. Observation year 1974. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Koomey, J.G. and others, Implications of historical trends in the electrical efficiency of computing, IEEE Annals of the History of Computing 33(3), 46 to 54, 2011, cited from memory. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Masanet, E. and others, Recalibrating global data centre energy-use estimates, Science 367, 984 to 986, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026, cited from the XT-02 notes of this series, not read for this edition; no figure is used. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of the Netherlands and Government of Japan, export-control rules on advanced semiconductor manufacturing equipment, 2023, cited from memory; no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of India, Ministry of Electronics and Information Technology, India Semiconductor Mission, the programme site returned an access error; cited from memory without figures. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: METI and press coverage of the April 2026 addition of JPY 631.5 billion to Rapidus support, bringing research and development support to about JPY 2.354 trillion, taken from search-result summaries; totals differ by source. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>United States Congress, CHIPS and Science Act, Public Law 117-167, enacted 9 August 2022 (text of section 102 on Congress.gov, first 100,000 characters read: the funding lines for sections 9902 and 9906 of Public Law 116-283 by fiscal year 2022 to 2026 sum to USD 39 billion for manufacturing incentives and USD 11 billion for research, USD 50 billion in all; the totals are sums of the listed amounts, not stated in the text). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Exponential Technology Series XT-06<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 semiconductor and compute edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-xt-06-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">XT-06<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-xt-06-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-SEMICONDUCTORS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-XTC-XT-06-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Advanced%20Semiconductors%20and%20AI%20Compute\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Advanced%20Semiconductors%20and%20AI%20Compute&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Advanced%20Semiconductors%20and%20AI%20Compute\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Advanced%20Semiconductors%20and%20AI%20Compute\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Advanced%20Semiconductors%20and%20AI%20Compute\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Exponential Technology Report \u00b7 XT-06&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Exponential Technology Report \u00b7 XT-06&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-xt-06-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-06-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>XT-06 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-06 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Advanced Semiconductors and AI Compute.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Exponential Technology<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-06\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><p class=\"nx-note\" data-nr-rights=\"true\"><a class=\"nx-link\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. 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