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\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\"><style>#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe{display:block;box-sizing:border-box;max-width:1180px;margin:0 auto;padding:0 16px;font-family:ui-sans-serif,system-ui,-apple-system,\"Segoe UI\",sans-serif;line-height:1.55;overflow-wrap:break-word}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe :where(*,*::before,*::after){box-sizing:inherit}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe :where(section,header,footer,nav,aside){display:block;margin:0 0 32px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe :where(h1,h2,h3,h4){line-height:1.2;margin:24px 0 12px;font-weight:600}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe :where(p,ul,ol,dl,table,figure,details){margin:0 0 16px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe :where(ul,ol){padding-left:20px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe a{color:inherit;text-decoration:underline;text-underline-offset:2px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe table{border-collapse:collapse;width:100%;display:block;overflow-x:auto}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe :where(th,td){padding:6px 8px;text-align:left;vertical-align:top;border-bottom:1px solid;border-color:inherit}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe svg{display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-xt-18-full.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Exponential Technology Report 2026: Space and Orbital Infrastructure<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">XT-18<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Exponential Technology<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Exponential Technology Report 2026: Space and Orbital Infrastructure (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Orbit is shared infrastructure under growing load<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Severe storm in a crowded low orbit<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Space and orbital infrastructure matters to the Nexus programme because other infrastructure now depends on it. Navigation, timing, communications and Earth observation are delivered from orbit, and the orbits are filling up. The US Space Surveillance Network had catalogued 34,054 objects in Earth orbit on 4 August 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>, and a public tracker counted 17,099 active satellites on 26 October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. ESA reports more than 300 launches and over 4,000 new payloads in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. The hazard grows with the traffic. ESA estimates more than 50,000 debris objects larger than 10 cm at the end of 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. A <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">geomagnetic storm<\/a> of the highest class in May 2024 raised drag on thousands of satellites<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>, and a preprint estimates that the time to a possible catastrophic collision, if satellites stopped maneuvering, fell from 164 days in 2018 to 5.5 days in June 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. The ground depends on orbit. A 2019 study sponsored by NIST estimates USD 1.4 trillion of private-sector benefit from GPS in the United States between 1984 and 2017<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>, and a 2022 cyberattack on a satellite network disrupted service in Ukraine and wind farms in central Europe<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>. Rules are moving. The FCC adopted a five-year disposal rule in 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>, and the EU Space Act proposal of June 2025 was still under Council scrutiny in November 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>. The atmospheric footprint of reentry is only starting to be measured<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no collision or launch date and ranks no country or operator.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the space baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The US network catalogued 34,054 on 4 August 2026. ESA counts about 40,000 tracked at the end of 2024. The bases differ.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How many objects are in orbit?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">17,099 on 26 October 2026 in a public tracker, about two thirds from one constellation.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How many satellites are active?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">ESA estimates over 50,000 objects above 10 cm and over 1.2 million above 1 cm.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How much debris is there?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">It raised drag on thousands of satellites and put one NASA mission in safe mode.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What did the 2024 storm do?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A preprint estimates 5.5 days if maneuvering stopped, as of June 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How fast could a collision cascade start?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">GPS: a study estimates USD 1.4 trillion of US private-sector benefit from 1984 to 2017.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What on the ground depends on orbit?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A five-year disposal rule in the US from 2022; the EU Space Act proposal was under review in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What do the rules require?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\"><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 loss-of-control\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which humans can no longer reliably oversee, correct or shut down an advanced automated system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Loss of control<\/a> or navigation in a crowded orbit during a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h1\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.convective.thunderstorm\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Convective storms\" data-td=\"A convective storm cell with lightning and thunder that can bring heavy rain, gusts and hail.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">severe storm<\/a>. SCN-XT18-STM-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-001<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The US Space Surveillance Network catalogued 34,054 objects in Earth orbit on 4 August 2026.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-fig1-t\">Catalogued objects by type, 4 August 2026<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Spacecraft, active and defunct<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">19,154<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Rocket bodies and other debris<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"77.8\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">14,900<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: NASA Orbital Debris Quarterly News, September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>. Each bar counts catalogued objects; the bars sum to 34,054.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">The catalogue is the shared base for traffic safety, and it is incomplete by design: it holds objects large enough to track. NASA states that millimeter-sized debris numbers about 100 million and is estimated statistically<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. ESA counts about 40,000 tracked objects and estimates more than 1.2 million larger than 1 cm<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. The counts use different bases and are not reconciled in this edition.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">34,054<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">objects<\/span><p>catalogued, August 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">17,099<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">satellites<\/span><p>active, October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;4,000<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">payloads<\/span><p>launched in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">days<\/span><p>CRASH Clock, June 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>GPS benefit estimate, 1984 to 2017<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">78<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">signatories<\/span><p>Artemis Accords, October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading orbit as shared physical infrastructure under growing load.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people space arrives as a launch video, a navigation app or a headline about debris.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. The GPS benefit estimate and the 2024 farm losses show where finance-readiness evidence will matter.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Orbital infrastructure is well described by catalogue counts and thinly measured as a system.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the 2026 state of space and orbital infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a forecast of any collision, launch or storm, an ordering of countries or operators, an endorsement of any vendor or an assessment of any programme. Licensing, spectrum, traffic rules and funding are decisions of competent authorities.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 space edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>NASA <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h23\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.orbital.space-debris\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Impacts and orbital hazards\" data-td=\"Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H23\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Orbital Debris<\/a> Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>McDowell, J., Active satellites statistics page (state at 2026 Oct 26; independent expert tracker, not an official catalogue; headline 17,099, category total 17,098). Jonathan McDowell, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (summary page dated 1 April 2025; data through the end of 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">geomagnetic storm<\/a> in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830\/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025\/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029\/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2024GL109280\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1029\/2024GL109280<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital debris frequently asked questions (more than 34,000 objects catalogued as of August 2026; about 100 million millimeter-sized pieces; 41 ISS avoidance maneuvers since 1999). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: NASA (ed.), Artemis Accords (web page; 78 signatories; most recent signing on 28 October 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Orbit is shared infrastructure under growing load<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>11 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is space risk concentrated?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry space shocks into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which space capabilities hold under compound stress?<\/li><li>What must 2027 evidence measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five footprint and governance chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Space is usually discussed as a launch race or a market. The 2026 evidence reads it as shared physical infrastructure: a set of orbits that carry navigation, timing and communications for other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, and that now hold tens of thousands of catalogued objects<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The traffic is dense and growing. The US network catalogued 34,054 objects on 4 August 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>. A public tracker counted 17,099 active satellites on 26 October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. ESA reports more than 300 launches and over 4,000 new payloads in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>, and estimates more than 50,000 debris objects larger than 10 cm<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The hazards couple. The May 2024 storm raised drag on thousands of satellites and disturbed GPS-guided farming on the ground<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. A preprint estimates that the time to a possible catastrophic collision, if satellites stopped maneuvering, fell from 164 days to 5.5 days<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. A 2022 cyberattack on a satellite network showed that the ground segment is also a path of failure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The rules and the footprint are the least settled parts. The FCC shortened its disposal benchmark to five years<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>, the EU Space Act proposal is still in negotiation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>, and the atmospheric effect of reentry is only modelled<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-fig1-t\">How has the estimated time to a catastrophic collision changed? CRASH Clock, days<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">A preprint estimates that the time to a possible catastrophic collision, if satellites stopped maneuvering or lost situational awareness, fell by about a factor of thirty between 2018 and June 2025 (derivation (3)). It is a model estimate under the authors&#8217; assumptions, not a forecast, and peer review was not located<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">2018 estimate: 164 days<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">164<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">June 2025 estimate: 5.5 days<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"3.4\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">5.5<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">days<\/span><p>CRASH Clock, June 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">164<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">days<\/span><p>CRASH Clock, 2018<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224830<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">times<\/span><p>fall, derivation (3)<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2025<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">preprint<\/span><p>revised version of June 2026 read<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The space-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for their space content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">GPS-guided farming runs through space, not energy<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">no documented link<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">SPW \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h1\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.convective.thunderstorm\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Convective storms\" data-td=\"A convective storm cell with lightning and thunder that can bring heavy rain, gusts and hail.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">severe storm<\/a> raises drag and strains maneuvering across crowded orbits.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> 2024 storm and CRASH Clock<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">INF \u2192 DAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Orbit carries navigation and communications that other systems use.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> GPS benefit study<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">SPW \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A storm degraded GPS-guided farming in 2024.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> NASA article<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">DAT \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A ground-segment cyberattack disabled terminals in 2022.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> UK attribution<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">GOV \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Disposal and licensing rules set the debris trajectory.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> FCC and EU<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>NASA <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h23\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.orbital.space-debris\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Impacts and orbital hazards\" data-td=\"Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H23\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Orbital Debris<\/a> Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>McDowell, J., Active satellites statistics page (state at 2026 Oct 26; independent expert tracker, not an official catalogue; headline 17,099, category total 17,098). Jonathan McDowell, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (summary page dated 1 April 2025; data through the end of 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">geomagnetic storm<\/a> in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830\/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025\/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029\/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2024GL109280\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1029\/2024GL109280<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the space baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-001\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The US Space Surveillance Network catalogued 34,054 objects in Earth orbit on 4 August 2026.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-fig1-t\">Catalogued objects by type, 4 August 2026<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Spacecraft, active and defunct<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">19,154<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Rocket bodies and other debris<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"77.8\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">14,900<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: NASA Orbital Debris Quarterly News, September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>. Each bar counts catalogued objects; the bars sum to 34,054.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The catalogue is the shared base for traffic safety, and it is incomplete by design: it holds objects large enough to track. NASA states that millimeter-sized debris numbers about 100 million and is estimated statistically<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. ESA counts about 40,000 tracked objects and estimates more than 1.2 million larger than 1 cm<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. The counts use different bases and are not reconciled in this edition.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">A common basis for catalogues, the next quarterly issue and the next ESA report would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>ORB<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-001\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The US Space Surveillance Network catalogued 34,054 objects in Earth orbit on 4 August 2026: 19,154 spacecraft, active and defunct, and 14,900 rocket bodies and other debris.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-002\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">A public tracker counted 17,099 active satellites on 26 October 2026, of which 11,148 were active satellites of one commercial constellation, about 65% (derivation (1)).<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-003\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">ESA estimates more than 50,000 debris objects larger than 10 cm and more than 1.2 million larger than 1 cm at the end of 2024, and counts about 40,000 tracked objects.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-004\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ORB-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">In 2025 there were more than 300 launches and over 4,000 new payloads, about ten a day, and more than three intact satellites or rocket bodies reentered each day on average.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>SPW<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SPW-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SPW-005\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SPW-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The May 2024 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">geomagnetic storm<\/a>, the first G5 storm in over two decades, raised drag on thousands of satellites, and ICESat-2 lost altitude and entered safe mode; storm size and duration were poorly forecast even one day ahead.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SPW-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SPW-006\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SPW-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">A preprint estimates that the time to a possible catastrophic collision, if satellites stopped maneuvering, was 5.5 days in June 2025, against 164 days in 2018.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>NAV<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-NAV-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-NAV-007\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-NAV-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">A 2019 study sponsored by NIST estimates that GPS generated about USD 1.4 trillion of US private-sector benefit from 1984 to 2017, and that an outage would cost about USD 1 billion a day, up to 50% more in a multi-week planting-season outage.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>CYB<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CYB-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CYB-008\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CYB-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">A cyberattack on 24 February 2022 disrupted a commercial satellite network in Ukraine and wind farms in central Europe; the company said tens of thousands of terminals were damaged, and the UK attributed the attack to Russia on 10 May 2022.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>ENV<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENV-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENV-009\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENV-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">A 2024 modelling study estimates that satellites reentering in 2022 injected about 17 metric tons of aluminum oxides into the mesosphere, raising aluminum 29.5% above the natural level, and that constellation scenarios exceed 360 metric tons a year.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Governance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The European Commission proposed the EU Space Act in June 2025; by November 2025 every Member State held a scrutiny reservation and delegations called the text too prescriptive and not proportionate.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The FCC adopted a five-year post-mission disposal rule for low Earth orbit space stations on 29 September 2022, shortening a 25-year benchmark, and ESA reports about 80% of low-orbit rocket bodies meeting its own five-year standard.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is loss of satellite control or navigation during a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h1\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.convective.thunderstorm\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Convective storms\" data-td=\"A convective storm cell with lightning and thunder that can bring heavy rain, gusts and hail.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">severe storm<\/a> in a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h106\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 tech.space-systems.mega-constellation-congestion\" data-tk=\"Frontier and exponential technology \u00b7 Space technology and orbital infrastructure\" data-td=\"Deployment of very large satellite constellations crowding low orbits, multiplying close approaches, manoeuvre burdens and failed satellites, and raising the long-run chance of collisions and debris growth.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H106\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/tech\/\" data-txl=\"Frontier and exponential technology\">crowded low orbit<\/a>, while each dependency is measured only on its own. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>NASA <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h23\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.orbital.space-debris\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Impacts and orbital hazards\" data-td=\"Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H23\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Orbital Debris<\/a> Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital debris frequently asked questions (more than 34,000 objects catalogued as of August 2026; about 100 million millimeter-sized pieces; 41 ISS avoidance maneuvers since 1999). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (summary page dated 1 April 2025; data through the end of 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>McDowell, J., Active satellites statistics page (state at 2026 Oct 26; independent expert tracker, not an official catalogue; headline 17,099, category total 17,098). Jonathan McDowell, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">geomagnetic storm<\/a> in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Parker, W.E. and Linares, R., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.thermospheric-drag-surge\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"Swelling of the upper atmosphere during solar and geomagnetic activity that drags low satellites down, losing spacecraft and degrading orbit and collision predictions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Satellite Drag<\/a> Analysis During the May 2024 Gannon Geomagnetic Storm, arXiv:2406.08617, 2024 (abstract page read; preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (ed.), NOAA Space Weather Scales explanation page (G5 extreme geomagnetic storm). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>CISA and FBI (eds.), Strengthening Cybersecurity of SATCOM Network Providers and Customers, Advisory AA22-076A, published 17 March 2022, revised 10 May 2022. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Arlington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of the European Union (ed.), Russian cyber operations against Ukraine: declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the EU, 10 May 2022, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029\/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2024GL109280\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1029\/2024GL109280<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830\/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025\/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335, published 25 June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the Council note gives 26 June 2025 as the transmission date. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">INF \u00b7 Traffic<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Objects catalogued by the US Space Surveillance Network<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">34,054<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">objects<\/span><p>19,154 spacecraft; 14,900 rocket bodies and other debris.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>NASA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">INF \u00b7 Satellites<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Active satellites counted by a public tracker<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">17,099<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">satellites<\/span><p>about two thirds from one constellation, a tracker count.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>tracker<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">INF \u00b7 Launch<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Payloads placed in orbit in 2025<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;4,000<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">payloads<\/span><p>more than 300 launches; about ten payloads a day.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>ESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">INF \u00b7 Collision timing<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">CRASH Clock estimate, June 2025<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">5.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">days<\/span><p>164 days in 2018; a preprint estimate, not a forecast.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>preprint<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CLI \u00b7 Atmosphere<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Aluminum oxides from satellites reentering in 2022<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224817<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">metric tons<\/span><p>modelled estimate; a constellation scenario exceeds 360 a year.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2022<\/span><span>journal<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Navigation<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Average cost of a GPS outage to the United States<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22481<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion a day<\/span><p>study estimate; up to 50% higher in planting season.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2019<\/span><span>NIST<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through space, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries space risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>No documented coupling at baseline; launch-site water use is not bound.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">none documented<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Some high-voltage lines tripped and transformers overheated during the May 2024 storm in the US Midwest<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SPW \u2192 ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>GPS-guided tractors veered off course or stopped in May 2024; one account puts average farm loss near USD 17,000<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>; precision agriculture is a GPS sector in the NIST-sponsored study<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>No documented coupling at baseline; emergency communications and timing use are not bound here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">none documented<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>No documented coupling at baseline; Earth observation for ecosystems sits in a separate edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">none documented<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>Reentry aluminum oxides may affect the upper atmosphere; the evidence is modelled<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF \u2192 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>The core system: 34,054 catalogued objects, 17,099 active satellites, rules still forming.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Industry size and investment figures were not opened; a 2024 industry summary is cited as unverified<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2192 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Navigation and communications links carry data for other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>; the 2022 satellite network attack shows the path<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF \u2192 DAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>No documented coupling to other compute platforms at baseline; onboard processing claims are not evidenced here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">none documented<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Materials and propellant supply for satellites and launch are not bound in this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">none documented<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Launch access, spectrum filings and export controls shape who can operate; the ITU records frequency assignments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup>.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF \u2194 TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on space, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>orbital traffic, space weather and navigation couple<\/td><td>compound <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 loss-of-control\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which humans can no longer reliably oversee, correct or shut down an advanced automated system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">loss of control<\/a><\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>no documented coupling<\/td><td>none documented<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>storm effects on power lines reported<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>storm exposure<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food<\/td><td>GPS-guided farming disrupted in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>planting-season outage<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>no documented coupling<\/td><td>none documented<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td>GPS benefit estimate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>; industry size not opened<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>timing and loss exposure<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>access to satellite services<\/td><td>widening gaps<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>reentry emissions modelled<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>upper-atmosphere effects<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>space weather scale and watches<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>forecast skill<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>navigation, timing and communications links<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>single-point dependence<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>no documented coupling<\/td><td>none documented<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>no documented coupling<\/td><td>none documented<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>Earth observation is a use of orbit; its edition is separate<\/td><td>none documented here<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>satellite network attack of 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ground-segment compromise<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>treaty, FCC rule and EU proposal<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>fragmented rules<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>peer-reviewed debris and storm literature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>common catalogues<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>NASA <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h23\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.orbital.space-debris\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Impacts and orbital hazards\" data-td=\"Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H23\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Orbital Debris<\/a> Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>McDowell, J., Active satellites statistics page (state at 2026 Oct 26; independent expert tracker, not an official catalogue; headline 17,099, category total 17,098). Jonathan McDowell, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029\/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2024GL109280\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1029\/2024GL109280<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">geomagnetic storm<\/a> in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Space Foundation (ed.), The Space Report 2025 Q2 (global space economy USD 613 billion in 2024, about 7.8% growth, about 78% commercial), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. Space Foundation, Colorado Springs. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), ITU-R Space Services Department (web page; Radio Regulations procedures, Master International Frequency Register, space sustainability support). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (ed.), NOAA Space Weather Scales explanation page (G5 extreme geomagnetic storm). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Parker, W.E. and Linares, R., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.thermospheric-drag-surge\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"Swelling of the upper atmosphere during solar and geomagnetic activity that drags low satellites down, losing spacecraft and degrading orbit and collision predictions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Satellite Drag<\/a> Analysis During the May 2024 Gannon Geomagnetic Storm, arXiv:2406.08617, 2024 (abstract page read; preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>CISA and FBI (eds.), Strengthening Cybersecurity of SATCOM Network Providers and Customers, Advisory AA22-076A, published 17 March 2022, revised 10 May 2022. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Arlington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (ed.), Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (treaty page; General Assembly resolution 2777 (XXVI) of 29 November 1971; opened for signature 29 March 1972). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830\/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025\/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kessler, D.J. and Cour-Palais, B.G., Collision frequency of artificial satellites: the creation of a debris belt, Journal of Geophysical Research 83, 2637 to 2646, 1978, cited from memory. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four space risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>22 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-XT18-SPW-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Storm exposure in crowded orbits<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>severe geomagnetic storms and poor forecast skill<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>satellites in low orbit; navigation users<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>many satellites maneuvering at once; limited <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 recovery-time\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The time needed to restore a function or service to an acceptable level after disruption.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">recovery time<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>storm scales and watches<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>SPW \u2192 INF \u2192 DAT, FOO<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-XT18-DEB-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Debris growth and collision cascade<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>launch growth and fragmentation events<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>low orbits near constellation altitudes<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>objects too small to track<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>disposal rules and mitigation guidelines<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>INF \u2192 DAT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 10 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-XT18-NAV-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Navigation and timing outage<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>storm, interference or ground-segment failure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>farming, finance, telecommunications, power timing<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>single-system dependence<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>multiple constellations<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup>; backups not documented here<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>DAT \u2192 FIN, FOO, ENE<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-XT18-GOV-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Fragmented rules and slow adoption<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>national rules, a draft EU act and voluntary guidelines<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>operators in several jurisdictions<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>scrutiny reservations and slow agreement<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>treaties, ITU recording and guidelines<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>GOV \u2192 INF<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 10 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for space at the global level.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>disposal rules and mitigation guidelines published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>national catalogues track large objects<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>space weather scales and watches<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>; forecast skill limited<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>EU Space Act proposal still under review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>backup navigation and timing not documented here<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>no tested response to a mass loss of satellite control<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>continuity of navigation and timing for critical services not reported<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>no consolidated recovery evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>design for demise and its effects not bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>not applicable at baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>loss and insurance data not opened<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>treaties and ITU recording of assignments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>tracking networks and navigation <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>no figure bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>peer-reviewed base on debris, storms and atmosphere<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Parker, W.E. and Linares, R., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.thermospheric-drag-surge\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"Swelling of the upper atmosphere during solar and geomagnetic activity that drags low satellites down, losing spacecraft and degrading orbit and collision predictions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Satellite Drag<\/a> Analysis During the May 2024 Gannon <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Geomagnetic Storm<\/a>, arXiv:2406.08617, 2024 (abstract page read; preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (ed.), NOAA Space Weather Scales explanation page (G5 extreme geomagnetic storm). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (summary page dated 1 April 2025; data through the end of 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>NASA <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h23\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.orbital.space-debris\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Impacts and orbital hazards\" data-td=\"Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H23\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Orbital Debris<\/a> Program Office (ed.), Orbital debris frequently asked questions (more than 34,000 objects catalogued as of August 2026; about 100 million millimeter-sized pieces; 41 ISS avoidance maneuvers since 1999). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Zero Debris approach (web page, undated; target 2030). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest geomagnetic storm in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>EUSPA (ed.), Galileo (web page last modified 25 September 2026; no satellite count on the page). European Union Agency for the Space Programme, Prague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830\/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025\/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (ed.), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, 2019, cited from memory. United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (ed.), Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (treaty page; General Assembly resolution 2777 (XXVI) of 29 November 1971; opened for signature 29 March 1972). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), ITU-R Space Services Department (web page; Radio Regulations procedures, Master International Frequency Register, space sustainability support). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, 1967, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1967. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (ed.), IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. IADC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029\/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2024GL109280\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1029\/2024GL109280<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kessler, D.J. and Cour-Palais, B.G., Collision frequency of artificial satellites: the creation of a debris belt, Journal of Geophysical Research 83, 2637 to 2646, 1978, cited from memory. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boley, A.C. and Byers, M., Satellite mega-constellations create risks in Low Earth Orbit, the atmosphere and on Earth, Scientific <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> 11, 10642, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Severe storm in a crowded low orbit<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>2 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a storm of the 2024 class, or larger, arrives while low orbits hold more satellites than in 2024<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>the May 2024 storm and the CRASH Clock estimate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">SPW \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">storm heating raises drag on thousands of satellites<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2024<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">INF \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">many satellites maneuver at once and some lose control<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">INF \u2192 DAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">navigation and communications degrade for hours to days<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2024<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">DAT \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">GPS-guided farming and logistics stall<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2024<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">SPW \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">power lines and transformers are stressed on the ground<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2024<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">GOV \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">licensing and disposal rules are tested against the event<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01 would travel through Space and Orbital Infrastructure&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 SPW to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Storm heating raises drag on thousands of satellites. Analogue or source: 2024.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-18, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Infrastructure to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Many satellites maneuver at once and some lose control. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-18, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Infrastructure to dat<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Navigation and communications degrade for hours to days. Analogue or source: 2024.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-18, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 DAT to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">GPS-guided farming and logistics stall. Analogue or source: 2024.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-18, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 SPW to energy<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Power lines and transformers are stressed on the ground. Analogue or source: 2024.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-18, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Governance to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Licensing and disposal rules are tested against the event. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition XT-18, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026, scenario SCN-XT18-STM-01<\/a> (2026); Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">geomagnetic storm<\/a> in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c5-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The space baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>17 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>43 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading orbit as shared physical infrastructure under growing load. Traffic is large, the hazards couple through storms, navigation and the ground segment, and the rules are still forming. Evidence is strongest for catalogue counts and one storm, and weakest for emissions, supply and recovery.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">ORB-001 \u00b7 SPW-005 \u00b7 NAV-007 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people space arrives as a launch video, a navigation app or a headline about debris. The baseline asks that public debate separate counts, estimates and models, and keep the ground services that depend on orbit in view.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">ORB-001 \u00b7 NAV-007 \u00b7 SPW-005<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. The GPS benefit estimate and the 2024 farm losses show where finance-readiness evidence will matter<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">NAV-007 \u00b7 SPW-005<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Orbital infrastructure is well described by catalogue counts and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should reconcile catalogues, test the storm pathway and publish a comparable emissions inventory.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 Q-01 \u00b7 Q-02<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for space. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability exist?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests show?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What changed in the year, and what renews?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards and Academy<\/td><td>technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability<\/td><td>technology editorial board<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard is a decision of the competent standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Orbit is a shared resource that carries navigation, timing and communications. Treating it as infrastructure shows who depends on it and what a shared failure would cost.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>One orbit, many dependents<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">A national catalogue, an agency estimate and a public tracker answer different questions. This edition labels each and asks for a common basis before they are compared.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Counts are not equal<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">A storm is a natural event, and a crowded orbit makes its effects larger. One storm in 2024 and one preprint model show the pattern without proving the limit.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Storms and traffic compound<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Disposal rules, licensing and safety standards are tightening, and the main EU proposal is still being negotiated. The gap between launch growth and rule adoption is the near-term question.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Rules lag the traffic<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 global edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 space readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 space readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td>Space risk state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 6 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>national chapters in preparation<\/td><td>national chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments and published guidance that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DRAFT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Outer Space Treaty<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>principles of state activity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Liability Convention<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>liability for damage<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Registration Convention<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>registration of objects<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ITU Radio Regulations<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ITU<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>frequency assignments and interference<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FCC five-year disposal rule<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FCC<\/td><td>US licensees and market entrants<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2022<\/td><td>post-mission disposal<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ESA Zero Debris approach<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ESA<\/td><td>ESA missions and partners<\/td><td>PUBLISHED 2023<\/td><td>mitigation requirements<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>COPUOS sustainability guidelines<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>long-term sustainability<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IADC mitigation guidelines<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IADC<\/td><td>agency members<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>debris mitigation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU Space Act proposal<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Commission<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>DRAFT<\/td><td>safety, resilience, sustainability<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Artemis Accords<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NASA and signatory states<\/td><td>78 signatories<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>principles for exploration<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The Council recorded scrutiny reservations from all Member States on the EU Space Act in November 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Artemis Accords count stood at 78 after a signing on 28 October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>ESA published its 2026 Space Environment Report on 14 September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>EU Space Act compromise text and Parliament position<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>National disposal and licensing rules following the FCC order<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>COPUOS and ITU work on space sustainability<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers space assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about space and orbital infrastructure and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>peer-reviewed journals and preprints; treaties, standards bodies and agencies; catalogue and agency reports; industry summaries<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and preprints<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Parker and Linares<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>preprint<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>storm drag<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Thiele and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>preprint<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>collision timing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ferreira and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>reentry aluminum oxides<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maloney and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>atmospheric modelling<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hayakawa and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>May 2024 storm<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ryan and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>launch emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kessler and Cour-Palais<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>1978<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>collision frequency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Boley and Byers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>constellation risks<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Foundations and field overviews<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Tsurutani and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2003<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>extreme storm of 1859<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Royal Academy of Engineering<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>report<\/td><td>2011<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>navigation vulnerabilities<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Secure World Foundation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>report<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>counterspace capabilities<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Space Foundation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>industry report<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>economy size, unverified<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIA 2026 report page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>industry body<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>industry report, figures not read<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kuiper authorisation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>regulator<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>constellation licensing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU secure connectivity regulation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU regulation<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>public constellation<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Treaties, standards and policy<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Liability Convention page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>1972<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>liability<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Outer Space Treaty<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>1967<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>principles<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Registration Convention<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>1975<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>registration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FCC Second Report and Order<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FCC<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>five-year rule<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ESA Zero Debris approach<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ESA<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>mitigation target<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ESA mitigation requirements<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ESA<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>requirements<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NASA mitigation practices<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NASA<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>standard practices<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IADC guidelines<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IADC<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>guidelines<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>COPUOS guidelines<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>long-term sustainability<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UN resolution 77\/41<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>anti-satellite tests<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US statement on a 2021 test<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>US State Department<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>debris event<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU Council note<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Council of the EU<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>negotiation status<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Commission proposal<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Commission<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>proposal date<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ITU space services page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ITU<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>assignment recording<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Artemis Accords page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NASA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>signatory count<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Official counts, industry and incident sources<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>NASA quarterly newsletter<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NASA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>catalogue box score<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NASA debris FAQ<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NASA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>tracked and small debris<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ESA Space Environment Report 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ESA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>debris estimates<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ESA Space Environment Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ESA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>launch counts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Public satellite statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>independent tracker<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>active satellites<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NASA storm article<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NASA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>storm effects<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NOAA scales page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOAA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>G5 description<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NIST GPS study page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NIST<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>GPS benefits<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISS page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NASA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>station presence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EUSPA Galileo page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EUSPA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>navigation system<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CISA advisory<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CISA<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>satellite network threats<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UK attribution<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UK Government<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>network attack<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU Council declaration<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Council of the EU<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>attribution<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Debris and traffic are growing and mitigation is tightening<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Storms raise drag and can disturb navigation users<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Navigation and timing carry large economic value<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How catalogue counts compare on a common basis<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How soon a collision cascade could start and how to measure it<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How large the atmospheric footprint of reentry is<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">PREPRINTS<\/p><p>Three sources<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup> are preprints and are labelled as not peer-reviewed. They contextualise findings; none binds a finding on its own.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">geomagnetic storm<\/a> in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, 1967, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1967. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (ed.), Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (treaty page; General Assembly resolution 2777 (XXVI) of 29 November 1971; opened for signature 29 March 1972). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space, 1975, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1975. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), ITU-R Space Services Department (web page; Radio Regulations procedures, Master International Frequency Register, space sustainability support). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h23\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.orbital.space-debris\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Impacts and orbital hazards\" data-td=\"Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H23\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Orbital Debris<\/a> in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Zero Debris approach (web page, undated; target 2030). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA Space Debris Mitigation Requirements, Issue 1, 30 October 2023, taken from a file name on the Zero Debris page. European Space Agency, Darmstadt. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (ed.), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, 2019, cited from memory. United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (ed.), IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. IADC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830\/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025\/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335, published 25 June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the Council note gives 26 June 2025 as the transmission date. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: NASA (ed.), Artemis Accords (web page; 78 signatories; most recent signing on 28 October 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Parker, W.E. and Linares, R., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.thermospheric-drag-surge\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"Swelling of the upper atmosphere during solar and geomagnetic activity that drags low satellites down, losing spacecraft and degrading orbit and collision predictions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Satellite Drag<\/a> Analysis During the May 2024 Gannon Geomagnetic Storm, arXiv:2406.08617, 2024 (abstract page read; preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029\/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2024GL109280\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1029\/2024GL109280<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maloney, C. and others, study of satellite reentry aluminum in the atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, April 2025, taken from a search-result summary that says its modelling did not include interactive ozone chemistry. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hayakawa, H. and others, The Solar and Geomagnetic Storms in 2024 May: A Flash Data Report, The Astrophysical Journal, 2025, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ryan, R.G. and others, Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollution on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, Earth&#8217;s Future 10, e2021EF002612, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kessler, D.J. and Cour-Palais, B.G., Collision frequency of artificial satellites: the creation of a debris belt, Journal of Geophysical Research 83, 2637 to 2646, 1978, cited from memory. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boley, A.C. and Byers, M., Satellite mega-constellations create risks in Low Earth Orbit, the atmosphere and on Earth, Scientific Reports 11, 10642, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Tsurutani, B.T. and others, The extreme magnetic storm of 1 to 2 September 1859, Journal of Geophysical Research 108(A7), 1268, 2003, cited from memory. Observation year 2003. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Royal Academy of Engineering (ed.), Global Navigation Space <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a>: reliance and vulnerabilities, March 2011, cited from memory; the page returned an error. Royal Academy of Engineering, London. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Secure World Foundation (ed.), Global Counterspace Capabilities: An Open Source Assessment, 2025 edition, cited from memory. Secure World Foundation, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Space Foundation (ed.), The Space Report 2025 Q2 (global space economy USD 613 billion in 2024, about 7.8% growth, about 78% commercial), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. Space Foundation, Colorado Springs. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>SIA (ed.), State of the Satellite Industry Report, 2026 edition covering fiscal year 2025 (web page read; the executive summary was not read and no figure is used). Satellite Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FCC (ed.), authorisation of the Kuiper satellite system, July 2020, cited from memory. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023\/588 establishing the Union Secure Connectivity Programme for the period 2023 to 2027, March 2023, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: NASA (ed.), NASA Procedural Requirements and Standard Practices for orbital debris mitigation, 2019 edition, named in the FCC order and cited from memory. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly resolution 77\/41 on destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests, December 2022, cited from memory; the document viewer returned no text. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of State (ed.), press statement on the Russian direct-ascent anti-satellite missile test of November 2021, 15 November 2021, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. US Department of State, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital debris frequently asked questions (more than 34,000 objects catalogued as of August 2026; about 100 million millimeter-sized pieces; 41 ISS avoidance maneuvers since 1999). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (summary page dated 1 April 2025; data through the end of 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>McDowell, J., Active satellites statistics page (state at 2026 Oct 26; independent expert tracker, not an official catalogue; headline 17,099, category total 17,098). Jonathan McDowell, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (ed.), NOAA Space Weather Scales explanation page (G5 extreme geomagnetic storm). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), International Space Station (web page; 25 years of continuous human presence marked on 2 November 2025). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>EUSPA (ed.), Galileo (web page last modified 25 September 2026; no satellite count on the page). European Union Agency for the Space Programme, Prague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>CISA and FBI (eds.), Strengthening Cybersecurity of SATCOM Network Providers and Customers, Advisory AA22-076A, published 17 March 2022, revised 10 May 2022. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Arlington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of the European Union (ed.), Russian cyber operations against Ukraine: declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the EU, 10 May 2022, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 space agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 space edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How can object counts from national networks, ESA and public trackers be reconciled on one basis?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT18-CAT-01 \u00b7 catalogues on a common basis; first output: reconciliation table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How many satellites would face <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 loss-of-control\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which humans can no longer reliably oversee, correct or shut down an advanced automated system.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">loss of control<\/a> in a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h1\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.convective.thunderstorm\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Convective storms\" data-td=\"A convective storm cell with lightning and thunder that can bring heavy rain, gusts and hail.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">severe storm<\/a>, and how long would recovery take?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT18-WXS-02 \u00b7 storm exposure; first output: exposure estimate.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which sectors lose navigation or timing first, and for how long, in a multi-day outage?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT18-NAV-03 \u00b7 navigation and timing dependence; first output: dependence map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">What do launches and reentries inject into the upper atmosphere, by species?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT18-EMS-04 \u00b7 launch and reentry emissions; first output: emissions inventory.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which licensing and disposal rules apply in each orbital regime, and how do they differ?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-XT18-LAW-05 \u00b7 rules and licensing map; first output: rules overlay.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">What is the supply base for satellite hardware, ground stations and launch?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: dependence map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">What workforce exists for operations, launch and space safety?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">Q-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 space portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT18-CAT-01<\/span><\/td><td>Catalogues on a common basis<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>Q-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT18-WXS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Storm exposure<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>Q-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT18-NAV-03<\/span><\/td><td>Navigation and timing dependence<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>Q-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT18-EMS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Launch and reentry emissions<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>Q-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-XT18-LAW-05<\/span><\/td><td>Rules and licensing map<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>Q-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-XT18-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Storm in a crowded orbit Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>Q-02<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The space edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on infrastructure, cyber and Earth observation, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and cyber editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National readiness chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">space dependence and orbital readiness in each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">IN PREPARATION \u00b7 national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Sector couplings<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">GS-09 infrastructure \u00b7 GS-12 Earth observation \u00b7 GS-13 cyber<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">GS-09 DRAFTED \u00b7 sector baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Technology system model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">traffic, weather, navigation, atmosphere, governance<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">SR-02 lifeline <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> \u00b7 SR-13 strategic technology<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">XT-18 report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE DRAFT \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the space candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the space candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 global annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-XT18-2027-01 \u00b7 Storm in a crowded orbit Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead: drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>ORB-001 \u00b7 catalogued objects<\/td><td>INI-XT18-CAT-01<\/td><td>catalogues on a common basis<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ORB-003 \u00b7 debris estimates<\/td><td>INI-XT18-CAT-01<\/td><td>catalogues on a common basis<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SPW-005 \u00b7 storm effects<\/td><td>INI-XT18-WXS-02<\/td><td>storm exposure<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SPW-006 \u00b7 collision timing<\/td><td>INI-XT18-WXS-02<\/td><td>storm exposure<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NAV-007 \u00b7 GPS benefit<\/td><td>INI-XT18-NAV-03<\/td><td>navigation and timing dependence<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENV-009 \u00b7 reentry emissions<\/td><td>INI-XT18-EMS-04 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td>launch and reentry emissions<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GOV-011 \u00b7 disposal rules<\/td><td>INI-XT18-LAW-05<\/td><td>rules and licensing map<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-XT18-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CODES ARE NOT JOINS<\/p><p>Series codes in this edition (XT-18 and its relatives) are Reports codes. Codes in other indices can look alike. This edition makes no join on a code alone: a join needs a registry record that names both subjects.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>NASA <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h23\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.orbital.space-debris\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Impacts and orbital hazards\" data-td=\"Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H23\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Orbital Debris<\/a> Quarterly News<\/td><td>NASA<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>ORB-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ESA Space Environment Report<\/td><td>ESA<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>ORB-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Public satellite statistics<\/td><td>independent tracker<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>ORB-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NOAA space weather scales and watches<\/td><td>NOAA<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>SPW-005<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preprint servers and journals on collision risk<\/td><td>peer review and preprints<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>SPW-006<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU Council and Parliament records on the Space Act<\/td><td>EU institutions<\/td><td>per meeting<\/td><td>GOV-010<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FCC orders on orbital debris<\/td><td>FCC<\/td><td>per order<\/td><td>GOV-011<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-XT18-001<\/td><td>CRASH Clock fell to 5.5 days in a preprint<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>INF \u00b7 SPW<\/td><td>research question Q-02<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-XT18-002<\/td><td>Thousands of satellites faced added drag in May 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>SPW \u00b7 INF<\/td><td>initiative Q-02<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-XT18-003<\/td><td>A 2022 attack disabled terminals across a satellite network<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>DAT \u00b7 INF<\/td><td>research question Q-03<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">geomagnetic storm<\/a> in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c7-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>25 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Orbital hardware and traffic<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Satellites, rocket bodies and debris share a small number of orbital shells. Counts are strong where a catalogue exists, and differ by basis between catalogues.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">34,054<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">objects<\/span><p>catalogued by the US network, August 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">17,099<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">satellites<\/span><p>active, October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;4,000<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">payloads<\/span><p>launched in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Catalogued population<\/td><td>19,154 spacecraft and 14,900 rocket bodies and other debris on 4 August 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Active satellites<\/td><td>17,099 counted; about two thirds from one constellation<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Debris estimates<\/td><td>over 50,000 above 10 cm and over 1.2 million above 1 cm at the end of 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Small debris<\/td><td>about 100 million millimeter-sized pieces, estimated statistically<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>INF \u2194 SPW drag and storms<\/li><li>INF \u2192 DAT navigation and communications<\/li><li>GOV \u2192 INF disposal rules<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>catalogues on a common basis<\/li><li>conjunction and maneuver counts<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The next quarterly issue; the next ESA report; peer review of collision timing estimates.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-19 Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes published counts and estimates. It endorses no operator and forecasts no collision.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Launch, reentry and atmospheric footprint<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Launches and reentries are rising. Their effect on the upper atmosphere is modelled and not yet measured on a common basis.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;300<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">launches<\/span><p>in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224817<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">metric tons<\/span><p>aluminum oxides from reentry in 2022, modelled<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;360<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">metric tons a year<\/span><p>constellation reentry scenario, modelled<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Launch cadence<\/td><td>more than 300 launches and over 4,000 payloads in 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Reentry rate<\/td><td>more than three intact satellites or rocket bodies a day on average<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Aluminum oxides<\/td><td>about 17 metric tons in 2022 and 29.5% above the natural aluminum level, by model<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Measured emissions<\/td><td>not published on a common basis<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>INF \u2192 CLI upper-atmosphere effects<\/li><li>GOV \u2192 INF disposal and demise rules<\/li><li>FIN \u2192 INF launch growth<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>measured emissions by species<\/li><li>launch emissions inventory<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Measurement campaigns; further atmospheric studies; ESA and NASA reentry data.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-19 Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes modelled and reported footprints. It assesses no operator or launcher.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Space weather, navigation and the ground segment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Navigation, timing and communications links tie orbit to farming, finance and power on the ground. A <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h1\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.convective.thunderstorm\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Convective storms\" data-td=\"A convective storm cell with lightning and thunder that can bring heavy rain, gusts and hail.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">severe storm<\/a> and a cyberattack each showed a path of failure.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">G5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">storm class<\/span><p>May 2024, first in over two decades<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22481<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion a day<\/span><p>average GPS outage cost to the US, study estimate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">24 Feb<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">2022<\/span><p>satellite network attack in Ukraine<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Storm effects<\/td><td>raised drag on thousands of satellites; ICESat-2 entered safe mode<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Navigation on the ground<\/td><td>GPS-guided tractors veered off course in May 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Navigation value<\/td><td>about USD 1.4 trillion of US private-sector benefit from 1984 to 2017<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ground segment<\/td><td>terminals were damaged by the 2022 network attack, per the company<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>SPW \u2192 INF drag<\/li><li>INF \u2192 FOO GPS-guided farming<\/li><li>DAT \u2192 INF ground-segment attack<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>backup navigation capacity<\/li><li>outage costs outside the United States<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Storm watches and forecast skill; navigation outage reports; advisories on satellite networks.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-19 Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes dependencies in public sources. It assesses no system, company or state.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Economy, investment and workforce<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Space is a large and growing economy, but the figures here rest on summaries and on one study of GPS. Workforce and public finance are the thin parts.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>GPS private-sector benefit estimate, 1984 to 2017<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">613<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD billion<\/span><p>2024 space economy, search summary only<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">25<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">years<\/span><p>continuous human presence on the ISS, November 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GPS benefit<\/td><td>about USD 1.4 trillion, 2017 dollars, in the United States<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Industry size<\/td><td>a record figure for 2024 in a report not opened<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Public programmes<\/td><td>national and EU funding not consolidated here<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td>no figure bound<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FIN \u2192 INF launch and satellite growth<\/li><li>DAT \u2192 FIN navigation value<\/li><li>HLT \u2192 INF workforce<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>industry size from the report itself<\/li><li>workforce and launch capacity<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The next industry report; national budget statements; EU programme funding.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-19 Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes economic evidence as reported. It gives no investment advice and endorses no company.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Security, law and governance watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Space activity is governed by treaties, licences, voluntary guidelines and a draft EU regulation. The rules are tightening, and agreement on the largest proposal is slow.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">years<\/span><p>FCC post-mission disposal benchmark for low-orbit space stations, 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">78<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">signatories<\/span><p>Artemis Accords, 28 October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">17<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">working party meetings<\/span><p>on the EU Space Act proposal by November 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Treaties<\/td><td>liability for damage is absolute on Earth and fault-based in space<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Licensing and disposal<\/td><td>FCC five-year rule adopted 29 September 2022<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU proposal<\/td><td>all Member States held scrutiny reservations in November 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spectrum and sustainability<\/td><td>ITU records assignments; COPUOS guidelines are voluntary<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>GOV \u2192 INF disposal and traffic rules<\/li><li>GOV \u2192 DAT cyber requirements<\/li><li>GOV \u2192 TRD export controls and spectrum<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>text and status of the EU act<\/li><li>adoption of disposal rules<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>EU Space Act compromise text; FCC and national rules; anti-satellite test commitments; ITU and COPUOS work.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-09 Infrastructure, Transport and Logistics<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-12 Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">XT-19 Earth Observation and Geospatial Intelligence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes treaties and policy in public sources. It confers no certification on any system and assesses no government or company.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>NASA <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h23\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.orbital.space-debris\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Impacts and orbital hazards\" data-td=\"Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H23\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Orbital Debris<\/a> Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>McDowell, J., Active satellites statistics page (state at 2026 Oct 26; independent expert tracker, not an official catalogue; headline 17,099, category total 17,098). Jonathan McDowell, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (summary page dated 1 April 2025; data through the end of 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital debris frequently asked questions (more than 34,000 objects catalogued as of August 2026; about 100 million millimeter-sized pieces; 41 ISS avoidance maneuvers since 1999). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029\/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2024GL109280\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1029\/2024GL109280<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ryan, R.G. and others, Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollution on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, Earth&#8217;s Future 10, e2021EF002612, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maloney, C. and others, study of satellite reentry aluminum in the atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, April 2025, taken from a search-result summary that says its modelling did not include interactive ozone chemistry. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">geomagnetic storm<\/a> in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>CISA and FBI (eds.), Strengthening Cybersecurity of SATCOM Network Providers and Customers, Advisory AA22-076A, published 17 March 2022, revised 10 May 2022. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Arlington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Space Foundation (ed.), The Space Report 2025 Q2 (global space economy USD 613 billion in 2024, about 7.8% growth, about 78% commercial), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. Space Foundation, Colorado Springs. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), International Space Station (web page; 25 years of continuous human presence marked on 2 November 2025). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>SIA (ed.), State of the Satellite Industry Report, 2026 edition covering fiscal year 2025 (web page read; the executive summary was not read and no figure is used). Satellite Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023\/588 establishing the Union Secure Connectivity Programme for the period 2023 to 2027, March 2023, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: NASA (ed.), Artemis Accords (web page; 78 signatories; most recent signing on 28 October 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830\/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025\/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (ed.), Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (treaty page; General Assembly resolution 2777 (XXVI) of 29 November 1971; opened for signature 29 March 1972). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, 1967, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1967. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space, 1975, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1975. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335, published 25 June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the Council note gives 26 June 2025 as the transmission date. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), ITU-R Space Services Department (web page; Radio Regulations procedures, Master International Frequency Register, space sustainability support). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (ed.), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, 2019, cited from memory. United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-c8-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>13 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Share of active satellites in one constellation<\/td><td>11,148 \u00f7 17,099<\/td><td>about 65%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Share of catalogued objects that are spacecraft<\/td><td>19,154 \u00f7 34,054<\/td><td>about 56%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Fall in CRASH Clock, 2018 to June 2025<\/td><td>164 \u00f7 5.5<\/td><td>about 30 times<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Active satellites outside the largest constellation<\/td><td>17,099 \u2212 11,148<\/td><td>5,951<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Space System Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-XT18-SPACE \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent orbital infrastructure as shared infrastructure coupled to space weather, navigation and timing, communications, cyber security, atmosphere and governance<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the reading of orbit as shared infrastructure that other systems depend on.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>43 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 space annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Space System Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Catalogued objects<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>as of 4 Aug 2026<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>next quarterly issue<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Active satellites<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>26 Oct 2026<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>next update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ESA debris estimates<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>report of Apr 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ESA launch and reentry data<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>report of 14 Sep 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>May 2024 storm<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>May 2024 \u00b7 article May 2025<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>next <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h1\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.convective.thunderstorm\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Convective storms\" data-td=\"A convective storm cell with lightning and thunder that can bring heavy rain, gusts and hail.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">severe storm<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CRASH Clock<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Dec 2025 \u00b7 revised Jun 2026<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>peer review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GPS benefit study<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>Oct 2019<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>new studies<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Satellite network attack<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>Feb 2022 \u00b7 May 2022<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>incident reports<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Reentry emissions model<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Jun 2024<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>measurement campaigns<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU Space Act<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jun 2025 \u00b7 Nov 2025<\/td><td>per meeting<\/td><td>compromise text<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Orbital population<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>common basis across catalogues<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Space weather<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>forecast skill and exposure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Navigation<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>non-US outage costs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cyber<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>ground-segment incident data<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Atmosphere<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>measured emissions by species<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Governance<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>text and adoption of rules<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Economy<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>industry size from the report itself<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Supply and workforce<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>materials, launch capacity, people<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Object and debris counts on a common basis across catalogues<\/td><td>national catalogues, ESA, public trackers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>counts of 34,054 catalogued, about 40,000 tracked and about 50,000 large trackable use different bases and are not reconciled<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Conjunction and maneuver counts by operator<\/td><td>operator reports, national catalogues<\/td><td>not retrieved; ESA gives conjunction counts only in a figure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Debris and satellite counts from the ESA 2026 report itself<\/td><td>ESA Space Environment Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>only the summary page was read; tracked object and fragmentation counts were not on it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Peer review of the CRASH Clock estimate<\/td><td>journal publication of the preprint<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>not located; earlier versions and press reports gave other values<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Launch and reentry emissions by species, measured<\/td><td>atmospheric measurement campaigns, peer-reviewed studies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>only a modelling study was read<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Industry size and investment from the report itself<\/td><td>Space Foundation report and SIA 2026 report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the Space Foundation page returned an access error; the SIA page gave no figures; the 2024 value rests on search summaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Text and current status of the EU Space Act<\/td><td>Commission proposal and Parliament records<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>proposal not opened; Council note read for November 2025 only<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Date the FCC five-year rule applies to each licence<\/td><td>FCC order appendix<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the order was read; the applicability date was not confirmed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Outage costs of navigation outside the United States<\/td><td>EU and national studies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>not retrieved; the study read covers US private-sector use<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Backup navigation and timing capacity of critical sectors<\/td><td>national agencies, operators<\/td><td>not retrieved; rung stays LISTED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Supply chains and materials for satellites and ground segments<\/td><td>industry and trade statistics<\/td><td>not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Space workforce and launch capacity by country<\/td><td>national statistics, industry surveys<\/td><td>not retrieved; capability rung stays LISTED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Loss and insurance data for orbital assets<\/td><td>insurers, operators<\/td><td>not retrieved; no figure used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs beyond tracking, rules and research<\/td><td>agencies, operators, laboratories<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the NASA Orbital Debris Program Office in September 2026. Periodic, quarterly. Role: binds ORB-001 and the lead figure. Coverage: objects catalogued by one national network as of 4 August 2026.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-XT18-001<\/h3><p>NASA Orbital Debris Quarterly News, September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by ESA on 14 September 2026, with data through 2025. Annual. Role: binds ORB-004. Coverage: world launches and reentries; summary page read.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-XT18-002<\/h3><p>Satellite launch and reentry data in the ESA Space Environment Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-XT18-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-XT18-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>one national catalogue; objects large enough to track<\/td><td>summary page of the full report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>box score dated 4 August 2026<\/td><td>data through the end of 2025<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>quarterly issues<\/td><td>annual reports<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>catalogue definitions stated in the issue<\/td><td>report and methods published<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>agency catalogue; no peer review<\/td><td>agency report; no peer review<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>: tracked object and fragmentation counts in the full report<\/li><li>Parker and Linares<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>: forecast assessment details<\/li><li>Thiele and others<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>: peer review and assumptions of the CRASH Clock<\/li><li>European Commission<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>: proposal text<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>ESA<\/td><td>European Space Agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU<\/td><td>European Union<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FCC<\/td><td>US Federal Communications Commission<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GEO<\/td><td>geostationary orbit<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GNSS<\/td><td>global navigation satellite system<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GPS<\/td><td>Global Positioning System<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ITU<\/td><td>International Telecommunication Union<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LEO<\/td><td>low Earth orbit<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MEO<\/td><td>medium Earth orbit<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NOAA<\/td><td>US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SSN<\/td><td>US Space Surveillance Network<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TLE<\/td><td>two-line element set<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-XT18-STM-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Cluster notes<\/td><td>cards for the major orbital shells and ground-segment clusters<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: CRASH Clock<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>time to a possible catastrophic collision if satellites stopped maneuvering or situational awareness were severely lost<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>days<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>computed from catalogued orbits and conjunction frequency under stated assumptions<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>arXiv preprint, revised June 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>earlier versions and press reports gave other values; assumptions drive the result<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>a model metric, not a forecast; peer review not located<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (summary page dated 1 April 2025; data through the end of 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>NASA <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h23\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.orbital.space-debris\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Impacts and orbital hazards\" data-td=\"Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H23\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Orbital Debris<\/a> Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital debris frequently asked questions (more than 34,000 objects catalogued as of August 2026; about 100 million millimeter-sized pieces; 41 ISS avoidance maneuvers since 1999). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029\/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2024GL109280\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1029\/2024GL109280<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ryan, R.G. and others, Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollution on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, Earth&#8217;s Future 10, e2021EF002612, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maloney, C. and others, study of satellite reentry aluminum in the atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, April 2025, taken from a search-result summary that says its modelling did not include interactive ozone chemistry. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>SIA (ed.), State of the Satellite Industry Report, 2026 edition covering fiscal year 2025 (web page read; the executive summary was not read and no figure is used). Satellite Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Space Foundation (ed.), The Space Report 2025 Q2 (global space economy USD 613 billion in 2024, about 7.8% growth, about 78% commercial), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. Space Foundation, Colorado Springs. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335, published 25 June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the Council note gives 26 June 2025 as the transmission date. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830\/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025\/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>EUSPA (ed.), Galileo (web page last modified 25 September 2026; no satellite count on the page). European Union Agency for the Space Programme, Prague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Royal Academy of Engineering (ed.), Global Navigation Space <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a>: reliance and vulnerabilities, March 2011, cited from memory; the page returned an error. Royal Academy of Engineering, London. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Parker, W.E. and Linares, R., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.thermospheric-drag-surge\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"Swelling of the upper atmosphere during solar and geomagnetic activity that drags low satellites down, losing spacecraft and degrading orbit and collision predictions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Satellite Drag<\/a> Analysis During the May 2024 Gannon <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Geomagnetic Storm<\/a>, arXiv:2406.08617, 2024 (abstract page read; preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-ca-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Objects catalogued by the US Space Surveillance Network<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">34,054<\/span><\/td><td>objects<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Spacecraft catalogued, active and defunct<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">19,154<\/span><\/td><td>spacecraft<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rocket bodies and other debris catalogued<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">14,900<\/span><\/td><td>objects<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Active satellites in a public tracker<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">17,099<\/span><\/td><td>satellites<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Active satellites of one constellation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">11,148<\/span><\/td><td>satellites<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tracked objects, ESA<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u224840,000<\/span><\/td><td>objects<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Debris larger than 10 cm, ESA estimate<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&gt;50,000<\/span><\/td><td>objects<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Debris larger than 1 cm, ESA estimate<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&gt;1.2<\/span><\/td><td>million objects<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Launches in 2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&gt;300<\/span><\/td><td>launches<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Payloads placed in orbit in 2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&gt;4,000<\/span><\/td><td>payloads<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CRASH Clock, June 2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">5.5<\/span><\/td><td>days<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CRASH Clock, 2018<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">164<\/span><\/td><td>days<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Aluminum oxides from reentry in 2022, modelled<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u224817<\/span><\/td><td>metric tons<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Aluminum above natural level, 2022, modelled<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">29.5<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GPS private-sector benefit, US, 1984 to 2017<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u22481.4<\/span><\/td><td>USD trillion<\/td><td>2017<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Average cost of a GPS outage to the US<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u22481<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion a day<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0AObjects%20cataloged%20by%20the%20US%20Space%20Surveillance%20Network%2C%2234%2C054%22%2Cobjects%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0A%22Spacecraft%20cataloged%2C%20active%20and%20defunct%22%2C%2219%2C154%22%2Cspacecraft%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0ARocket%20bodies%20and%20other%20debris%20cataloged%2C%2214%2C900%22%2Cobjects%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0AActive%20satellites%20in%20a%20public%20tracker%2C%2217%2C099%22%2Csatellites%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0AActive%20satellites%20of%20one%20constellation%2C%2211%2C148%22%2Csatellites%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0A%22Tracked%20objects%2C%20ESA%22%2C%22%E2%89%8840%2C000%22%2Cobjects%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Debris%20larger%20than%2010%20cm%2C%20ESA%20estimate%22%2C%22%3E50%2C000%22%2Cobjects%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Debris%20larger%20than%201%20cm%2C%20ESA%20estimate%22%2C%3E1.2%2Cmillion%20objects%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0ALaunches%20in%202025%2C%3E300%2Claunches%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0APayloads%20placed%20in%20orbit%20in%202025%2C%22%3E4%2C000%22%2Cpayloads%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0A%22CRASH%20Clock%2C%20June%202025%22%2C5.5%2Cdays%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0A%22CRASH%20Clock%2C%202018%22%2C164%2Cdays%2C2018%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0A%22Aluminum%20oxides%20from%20reentry%20in%202022%2C%20modelled%22%2C%E2%89%8817%2Cmetric%20tons%2C2022%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0A%22Aluminum%20above%20natural%20level%2C%202022%2C%20modelled%22%2C29.5%2C%25%2C2022%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0A%22GPS%20private-sector%20benefit%2C%20US%2C%201984%20to%202017%22%2C%E2%89%881.4%2CUSD%20trillion%2C2017%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0AAverage%20cost%20of%20a%20GPS%20outage%20to%20the%20US%2C%E2%89%881%2CUSD%20billion%20a%20day%2C2019%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Exponential%20Technology%20Report%202026%3A%20Space%20and%20Orbital%20Infrastructure%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Objects%20cataloged%20by%20the%20US%20Space%20Surveillance%20Network%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2234%2C054%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22objects%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Spacecraft%20cataloged%2C%20active%20and%20defunct%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2219%2C154%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22spacecraft%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Rocket%20bodies%20and%20other%20debris%20cataloged%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2214%2C900%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22objects%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Active%20satellites%20in%20a%20public%20tracker%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2217%2C099%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22satellites%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Active%20satellites%20of%20one%20constellation%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2211%2C148%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22satellites%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Tracked%20objects%2C%20ESA%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%8840%2C000%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22objects%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Debris%20larger%20than%2010%20cm%2C%20ESA%20estimate%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3E50%2C000%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22objects%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Debris%20larger%20than%201%20cm%2C%20ESA%20estimate%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3E1.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20objects%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Launches%20in%202025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3E300%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22launches%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Payloads%20placed%20in%20orbit%20in%202025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3E4%2C000%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22payloads%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22CRASH%20Clock%2C%20June%202025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%225.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22days%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22CRASH%20Clock%2C%202018%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22164%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22days%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222018%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Aluminum%20oxides%20from%20reentry%20in%202022%2C%20modelled%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%8817%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22metric%20tons%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B10%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Aluminum%20above%20natural%20level%2C%202022%2C%20modelled%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2229.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B10%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22GPS%20private-sector%20benefit%2C%20US%2C%201984%20to%202017%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%881.4%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20trillion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222017%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Average%20cost%20of%20a%20GPS%20outage%20to%20the%20US%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%881%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%20a%20day%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222019%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Values are rounded as published. Model and preprint values are labelled in the notes. Industry and search-summary values carry an UNVERIFIED reference and are listed in the notes. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">DAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>NASA <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h23\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.orbital.space-debris\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Impacts and orbital hazards\" data-td=\"Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H23\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Orbital Debris<\/a> Quarterly News<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national space agency<\/td><td>catalogued objects<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>catalogue counts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NASA orbital debris FAQ<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national space agency<\/td><td>tracked and small debris<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>debris<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ESA Space Environment Reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>world<\/td><td>2024 and 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>debris and launches<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Public satellite statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>independent expert tracker<\/td><td>active satellites<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>traffic<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NASA article on the 2024 storm<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national space agency<\/td><td>storm effects<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>space weather<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NOAA scales page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national agency<\/td><td>storm scale<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>continuous<\/td><td>space weather<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NIST GPS study page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national standards body<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>navigation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UK Government attribution<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>government<\/td><td>Ukraine and Europe<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>cyber<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FCC Second Report and Order<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national regulator<\/td><td>US<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>disposal rule<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU Council note<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU institution<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>per meeting<\/td><td>policy<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, space across ten clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of orbital infrastructure and exposure in table form and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, space across ten clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td>federal disposal rule; national catalogue; many launches<\/td><td>rules, tracking<\/td><td>FCC<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>; NASA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>early national programmes; users of navigation<\/td><td>navigation<\/td><td>regional evidence (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>EU Space Act proposal; ESA mitigation approach; Galileo<\/td><td>rules, navigation<\/td><td>EU Council<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>; ESA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>; EUSPA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>launch and catalogue activity; export controls<\/td><td>traffic, rules<\/td><td>NASA catalogue<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td>users of navigation and satellite services<\/td><td>navigation<\/td><td>regional evidence (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>access to satellite services; skills<\/td><td>access, workforce<\/td><td>regional evidence (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>national space programmes<\/td><td>launch, skills<\/td><td>regional evidence (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>new constellation launches in the 2026 launch table<\/td><td>traffic, launch<\/td><td>NASA launch table<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>signatories and users of satellite services<\/td><td>access, rules<\/td><td>NASA Artemis page<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>users of navigation; ground stations<\/td><td>navigation<\/td><td>regional evidence (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Cluster card: low Earth orbit near 550 km<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">orbital shell<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">constellations<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">debris<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">maneuvering<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>constellation satellites, debris, tracking networks<\/dd><dt>Defining events<\/dt><dd>the May 2024 storm raised drag on thousands of satellites<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>SPW \u2192 INF drag; INF \u2192 DAT services; GOV \u2192 INF disposal rules<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>ESA reports about 80% of low-orbit rocket bodies meeting its five-year standard<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>conjunction counts; maneuver counts; objects too small to track<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>Q-01 \u00b7 Q-02<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ESA states that around 550 km the debris that poses a threat is of the same order of magnitude as the number of active satellites, and that about a quarter of constellation payloads fly below 500 km [1].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">TRAFFIC<\/h3><p>A crowded shell<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The May 2024 storm raised drag on thousands of satellites, and one NASA mission lost altitude and entered safe mode [7].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">WEATHER<\/h3><p>Storm drag<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The FCC shortened its disposal benchmark for low-orbit space stations to five years in 2022, and ESA adopted a five-year standard in 2023 [11] [1].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">RULES<\/h3><p>Disposal in five years<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Cluster cards are generated for the major orbital shells and ground-segment clusters in 2027. The shell near 550 km is shown first because ESA documents its debris and constellation density.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the space edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the space edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the space edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>NASA <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h23\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.orbital.space-debris\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Impacts and orbital hazards\" data-td=\"Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H23\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Orbital Debris<\/a> Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>McDowell, J., Active satellites statistics page (state at 2026 Oct 26; independent expert tracker, not an official catalogue; headline 17,099, category total 17,098). Jonathan McDowell, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (summary page dated 1 April 2025; data through the end of 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029\/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2024GL109280\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1029\/2024GL109280<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital debris frequently asked questions (more than 34,000 objects catalogued as of August 2026; about 100 million millimeter-sized pieces; 41 ISS avoidance maneuvers since 1999). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">geomagnetic storm<\/a> in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (ed.), NOAA Space Weather Scales explanation page (G5 extreme geomagnetic storm). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830\/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025\/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Zero Debris approach (web page, undated; target 2030). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>EUSPA (ed.), Galileo (web page last modified 25 September 2026; no satellite count on the page). European Union Agency for the Space Programme, Prague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: NASA (ed.), Artemis Accords (web page; 78 signatories; most recent signing on 28 October 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-xt-18-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\">Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>14 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>43 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2025 (summary page dated 1 April 2025; data through the end of 2024). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Space Environment Report 2026 (summary page dated 14 September 2026; data through the end of 2025; the full report PDF was not opened). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>McDowell, J., Active satellites statistics page (state at 2026 Oct 26; independent expert tracker, not an official catalogue; headline 17,099, category total 17,098). Jonathan McDowell, Cambridge MA. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>NASA <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h23\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.orbital.space-debris\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Impacts and orbital hazards\" data-td=\"Defunct satellites, rocket stages and fragments in orbit that can strike working spacecraft and crewed stations.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H23\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Orbital Debris<\/a> Program Office (ed.), Orbital Debris Quarterly News, Volume 30, Issue 3, September 2026 (satellite box score as of 4 August 2026; launch table May to July 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>NASA Orbital Debris Program Office (ed.), Orbital debris frequently asked questions (more than 34,000 objects catalogued as of August 2026; about 100 million millimeter-sized pieces; 41 ISS avoidance maneuvers since 1999). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Houston. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Parker, W.E. and Linares, R., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.thermospheric-drag-surge\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"Swelling of the upper atmosphere during solar and geomagnetic activity that drags low satellites down, losing spacecraft and degrading orbit and collision predictions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Satellite Drag<\/a> Analysis During the May 2024 Gannon <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h22\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 space.solar-storm.geomagnetic-storm\" data-tk=\"Space and near-Earth \u00b7 Solar-terrestrial storms\" data-td=\"A disturbance of Earth's magnetic field driven by the solar wind that disrupts power grids, satellites, navigation and radio.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H22\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/space\/\" data-txl=\"Space and near-Earth\">Geomagnetic Storm<\/a>, arXiv:2406.08617, 2024 (abstract page read; preprint). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), What NASA is learning from the biggest geomagnetic storm in 20 years (article dated 9 May 2025; page updated 25 September 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>NOAA Space Weather Prediction Center (ed.), NOAA Space Weather Scales explanation page (G5 extreme geomagnetic storm). National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Boulder. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Thiele, S., Heiland, S.R., Boley, A.C. and Lawler, S.M., An Orbital House of Cards: Frequent Satellite Close Conjunctions, arXiv:2512.09643, submitted 10 December 2025, version 3 of 29 June 2026 (abstract page read; preprint, peer review not located; the abstract of this version gives 5.5 days and 164 days). arXiv, Ithaca. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Ferreira, J.P., Huang, Z., Nomura, K. and Wang, J., Potential Ozone Depletion From Satellite Demise During Atmospheric Reentry in the Era of Mega-Constellations, Geophysical Research Letters 51, 2024, DOI 10.1029\/2024GL109280 (full text read; modelling study). American Geophysical Union, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1029\/2024GL109280\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1029\/2024GL109280<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>FCC (ed.), Second Report and Order, FCC 22-74, Mitigation of Orbital Debris in the New Space Age, IB Docket Nos. 22-271 and 18-313, adopted 29 September 2022, released 30 September 2022. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>ESA (ed.), ESA Zero Debris approach (web page, undated; target 2030). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs (ed.), Convention on International Liability for Damage Caused by Space Objects (treaty page; General Assembly resolution 2777 (XXVI) of 29 November 1971; opened for signature 29 March 1972). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 1972. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>General Secretariat of the Council (ed.), Note 15830\/25, Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), progress report for the Competitiveness Council of 8 and 9 December 2025, interinstitutional file 2025\/0335 (COD), 26 November 2025. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Economic Benefits of the Global Positioning System to the US Private Sector (news page dated 2 October 2019, updated 3 February 2025; study by RTI International sponsored by NIST; about USD 1.4 trillion in 2017 dollars, 1984 to 2017). National Institute of Standards and Technology, Gaithersburg. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: NASA (ed.), Artemis Accords (web page; 78 signatories; most recent signing on 28 October 2026). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>NASA (ed.), International Space Station (web page; 25 years of continuous human presence marked on 2 November 2025). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), ITU-R Space Services Department (web page; Radio Regulations procedures, Master International Frequency Register, space sustainability support). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>CISA and FBI (eds.), Strengthening Cybersecurity of SATCOM Network Providers and Customers, Advisory AA22-076A, published 17 March 2022, revised 10 May 2022. Cybersecurity and Infrastructure Security Agency, Arlington. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), Russia behind cyber attack with Europe-wide impact an hour before Ukraine invasion (news story of 10 May 2022; company statements are quoted by the government and are weak evidence). Foreign, Commonwealth and Development Office, London. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>EUSPA (ed.), Galileo (web page last modified 25 September 2026; no satellite count on the page). European Union Agency for the Space Programme, Prague. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>SIA (ed.), State of the Satellite Industry Report, 2026 edition covering fiscal year 2025 (web page read; the executive summary was not read and no figure is used). Satellite Industry Association, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Space Foundation (ed.), The Space Report 2025 Q2 (global space economy USD 613 billion in 2024, about 7.8% growth, about 78% commercial), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. Space Foundation, Colorado Springs. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335, published 25 June 2025, taken from search-result summaries; the Council note gives 26 June 2025 as the transmission date. European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Treaty on Principles Governing the Activities of States in the Exploration and Use of Outer Space, including the Moon and Other Celestial Bodies, 1967, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1967. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Convention on Registration of Objects Launched into Outer Space, 1975, cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 1975. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kessler, D.J. and Cour-Palais, B.G., Collision frequency of artificial satellites: the creation of a debris belt, Journal of Geophysical Research 83, 2637 to 2646, 1978, cited from memory. Observation year 1978. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boley, A.C. and Byers, M., Satellite mega-constellations create risks in Low Earth Orbit, the atmosphere and on Earth, Scientific Reports 11, 10642, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ryan, R.G. and others, Impact of Rocket Launch and Space Debris Air Pollution on Stratospheric Ozone and Global Climate, Earth&#8217;s Future 10, e2021EF002612, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Maloney, C. and others, study of satellite reentry aluminum in the atmosphere, Journal of Geophysical Research: Atmospheres, April 2025, taken from a search-result summary that says its modelling did not include interactive ozone chemistry. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of State (ed.), press statement on the Russian direct-ascent <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h106\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 tech.space-systems.destructive-asat-strike\" data-tk=\"Frontier and exponential technology \u00b7 Space technology and orbital infrastructure\" data-td=\"Deliberate destruction of a satellite by missile or co-orbital weapon, creating long-lived debris clouds that threaten other spacecraft and can seed a wider collision cascade.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H106\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/tech\/\" data-txl=\"Frontier and exponential technology\">anti-satellite missile test<\/a> of November 2021, 15 November 2021, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. US Department of State, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations General Assembly resolution 77\/41 on destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite missile tests, December 2022, cited from memory; the document viewer returned no text. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Committee on the Peaceful Uses of Outer Space (ed.), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, 2019, cited from memory. United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Inter-Agency Space Debris Coordination Committee (ed.), IADC Space Debris Mitigation Guidelines, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. IADC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Royal Academy of Engineering (ed.), Global Navigation Space Systems: reliance and vulnerabilities, March 2011, cited from memory; the page returned an error. Royal Academy of Engineering, London. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of the European Union (ed.), Russian cyber operations against Ukraine: declaration by the High Representative on behalf of the EU, 10 May 2022, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: NASA (ed.), NASA Procedural Requirements and Standard Practices for orbital debris mitigation, 2019 edition, named in the FCC order and cited from memory. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA Space Debris Mitigation Requirements, Issue 1, 30 October 2023, taken from a file name on the Zero Debris page. European Space Agency, Darmstadt. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hayakawa, H. and others, The Solar and Geomagnetic Storms in 2024 May: A Flash Data Report, The Astrophysical Journal, 2025, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Secure World Foundation (ed.), Global Counterspace Capabilities: An Open Source Assessment, 2025 edition, cited from memory. Secure World Foundation, Broomfield. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023\/588 establishing the Union Secure Connectivity Programme for the period 2023 to 2027, March 2023, cited from memory. European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Tsurutani, B.T. and others, The extreme magnetic storm of 1 to 2 September 1859, Journal of Geophysical Research 108(A7), 1268, 2003, cited from memory. Observation year 2003. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FCC (ed.), authorisation of the Kuiper satellite system, July 2020, cited from memory. Federal Communications Commission, Washington. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Exponential Technology Report 2026: Space and Orbital Infrastructure, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Exponential Technology Series XT-18<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 space edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-xt-18-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">XT-18<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-xt-18-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-SPACE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-XTC-XT-18-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Space and Orbital Infrastructure; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Space%20and%20Orbital%20Infrastructure\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Space%20and%20Orbital%20Infrastructure&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Space%20and%20Orbital%20Infrastructure\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Space%20and%20Orbital%20Infrastructure\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Space%20and%20Orbital%20Infrastructure\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Space and Orbital Infrastructure, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Space and Orbital Infrastructure for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Exponential Technology Report 2026: Space and Orbital Infrastructure.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Space and Orbital Infrastructure&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Exponential Technology Report \u00b7 XT-18&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-18\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Space and Orbital Infrastructure&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Exponential Technology Report \u00b7 XT-18&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-xt-18-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-xt-18-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>XT-18 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Space and Orbital Infrastructure 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-18 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Space and Orbital Infrastructure.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Exponential Technology<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. 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