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\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\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ktFqdzcxA7hRd6kfnafL2TcHntjL7qahTJnfkTwzJH0AiAKsovzzyJUljcDMxZFpjnOoHZlmQ7Imt258IeLfZjRSk\/Qc1Z1Yas88ysYmZKD5TkL1kI4SbMXXG2jQG+mJ1vw5KM247o1ziy3wbhgwrFzIG4Ofb21YqgFN07QX6S99MEwbVEA4FUuqZess7O5mBVE7AY5FecOaBHy67PrjnfVRjp0KLoWxF0noRJnQT8kNX1yg4Vtl758YJvjx20ewrRevpicpxXe87M6nIqx7LYhGlRKk+mpUUnx3UCJsL6qIyqJSJ5PusM1rCuilTJJq\/Rc0bXddEXfV5alG0VcrhY+TtmLLy6lYyr78vMHmTEOeKELFpkCyuja27FEQKFqLpQcBk7a7vs8dDsoW4ps8Xms0MU5k+hufCOTKrm6XQWnHqRJh8z7W5qaAVXkw+AhLdy5eNzTAY0Mu2oxQGtVpW7rmQBhI\/Cshwfm5jb4gC6qKBfqgoqVJjLyjyO3rxFjJnp6o5ZUnlYv22qWlmwqJ+yVnTSoqy12JolMHBcT498f\/J1uXD8JVI47HD+sH73bf1O5NPP0uIzJm1Noygb+S7u+Vvk8xOzSqJnTuLZBGUJfeZhtQnUNnmNIPkCCbd1EuyOsLu8Du2rYjrqVWeH+1jObnJSxfU5tsfD6fonBevossIx5qYSewos9Ds6np7tCOLlcc3MMKpZVCs8WiONpEGmExwZ0+17piF1aE6MzRNn7HloAoTz\/M3gdvABe\/ag5r3r4UDSwNndnmpbZY5t4qBYneY17XSCbK6KAnkzyNMjA7Dnwqul\/bsLD0ZmzJlu69jwKGR5I3SIUdHq4Jhh5W1wL+qB0S\/GaGgcjmYDY87rIMlF6E4S0zcD7iR9UIsQyE55cX\/YvYsw3iRtzcO9Hk2vyRGebWtd3O7RAZfX29pHWal0zcf0mKckamu\/k0PqX9EJvRKtsBem8Gh2bRCm3BazcPihusRFNtyywAaSHeg6HzF9aeH4Y8\/50vFfv6q2O\/Nj+Mw46qMKuZdFU1vruRfhfpfrutuSYGAuQZPHlX7n3NzHHOesozPOwFu\/6SpijlvLXkBOyH1dKu13nI59um+kFRwPB5quAS\/G2qqXrBljjd\/vdqIzatQcgd60MYCRd+PdtjGE0l5RS68n8aePO5pS5Agq69t4opFBNWVlJ\/Y8l5wEVWquxNOKy\/PVJgc2CTPgpLYgbZrXKuJgt8W4w9XTs3m\/7asKa1uPb0okoqGyXX1fa81bBkdfl765EUxmD1blRKjLJrOcasnU\/DHMFm1RdxAdtygMPvOEtITxIEziJIyqsTHx1eYQlNb50qgC5rI8XN9\/WvK9VAUfZTTaiNgjxqDVoqae97BzRoxjDKXQOTUOsXTz8\/JeUG1bjCDfhbHx5OTJerSvzQ7m5Zr5hIW8GDgdIDnD7umSJ2snCiu2h3qRmDkrbtudFdWg4RmYjJlqkxBDZuGQLZMgpRtc4hm3F3lGT\/M7mxWTQKlWSY69i\/t+5D34RUYiEvPN4MCKurl9mlDVapjx82fmBRmhLnyg9llsVZ9QOTdGVgVasuOq3Ct+YQth57sVvV90IW8scTSWTnexTSaSV29xJYMdP+TK4U6UACnLmg2OqLcikbGmnujMIxdUFmBhxfkwUU9h4TY\/phnM5CFhZYWaR3Pden0l76Ey7sWiyOMJaE7CKGMlW2VZBL3sqravnyOCI+x9cqDxh\/KTX9GTzbrT82geqoehHaSPkyQheU0hBGGRJAcerKLIlf68FtI8r7jkNeanJONMvCyEsC5x4S7yFlpHZH94CRPk3j58dGFLdqKvDJCVt+crjGUC2trTnBgagvlpUQ589px+6EOaZLQe14R72zkYyw+qcb8Re\/aqKYbN7KnujD2WBEw8RbofyWr7HJWi4dc+e2naUpnMimQUBifbCydeLYisPiX+zMAe42vNMf4lc4z5CCuvjjCrsdHJX+61AZm3WjLH9sicKKurvrim12O48XF\/klOfMBv5tk7WpI0sIZQ2bDQIVxGES8tpAPN6DKNXmzSb0YAs5rUtglLrTrYViwqC2NnYTTkOTiiNKOcndKDoxhrX5dTiVAaRmTqtatJn02N6xuMifepB1GqSYvHiqi8fMS+QtlAFNJZB6J4dK703v7qVHoYQ6OJLuU419jrJbejAGZufuuWbcP\/DNYVQPpdq1x4mGiKKWo8NntZQC56V3U3iGGkOx8y4QyP6QJBBM0qw1ExzoE4RZ9r93jDKeZ0cWRXdlDKljb97NR\/H\/d448pllHWiMibNm5PO841IsBx\/G65TumdWAU4kbUDMTVDT8kj\/iBnQd7kk0ijjG0+g3miY1A9XEciA1YgStMdK6NEJLQtf9vhnaa6p\/TQ56C1APl66lidyfz881NymEcfDMWQpAAuzV\/vkFvXU0IEV2wvRdHsjANtZ9GNg1Tuu9oz1d7Cq9thbiSJW+Z0qa9AWYnpml42ITy\/Yd7+YV6MdKX97ygaYcxKqAyz4eaHrxKEDObewQPWKNYk9GrC7QqzJ5gueKVcGKt4H14Rgz3hav8liBUejMcy947i477voeJ2w2sM4mS9xWpgBkR\/yhol98ig91hpiMIAnxE9E3EmgTbpUVrwAKcZv5Us1F7pCvv+T1P8I4CwO6cMhDEgYWWBFgW54PHhIq+gTX7OjjjuRPkCsBXWXpuiWNFLMKzDYuNvH4YdsSIMiiNYvuWKxHFfohfFjmCBaPpwLW6KJLswZ1JEEjGXfHUvgvdWilJwinwZ8pvKN+RjqyOqEw\/W5b+u2wpB9IhD\/DdH13gBxIT7WG8IACaebkgYt7HuBznXx3qss8+zAIEPtAbayIxJ38pWHTxrS4LhqaQnh1ZXl6jeFLQNnD9lQeL5hD+hgDImfgFI7kmmffPDAujBU+NfGbwHfmOzNl7F5dLKstOuo+2NKTBp1Nq2RoMdlQXfEcgo9vBr\/8+vOPP3w7+NA8xrALPk4C6qzDdB1RzXQUKJz6cZV2t9pRiescmnqmA4PjcXfzNHuX846uYiDiNCvqg2mqkrnthH5qwVAu0bkUrLALSQGdzDf0U3O1V\/2M+iLHyO1\/\/+Nfv\/n5q1+\/UXuoQCM7Nfq\/vvnqu7YGpQkr1ktAsh0NEAw+0MRAX0hzHrMQXQ4agnHIsb6csC4JltzATt6N34EkPttJXEVOtuZTVU4Cm7Ho+Sr6qMDW8SQmOXSv0s8ehaTcV+3JV9FJ7q8aUUQOGWX5Vuw3fZCcfWzOfBU5osjASfwccT0vTw41jCS\/0JqFjARKcpeOeFaGuiQ7tSNS9OgnugKoy1rYQ8cm+YVRfnqiqAnoPd\/VPYN+D89guU3x+ksjdgXr+62vj4YxkQ\/DTrQtzJy5wM8eL0R0i9M9vDxo2Eu27A7KMFCa4kTnzNcW8blacDr7YiUiMerT1XCML8lm3fYhSxrLgxMGaKm2YBAxqqGMfldZwFBgAWFOHRHSfDLn5FZSZ3FEWgtArwIL\/zCh6PIEWI5EV5r+jALR5YXJ49GdJ4hHh15ZSSQtaorid5GgZDHCwiHVgkjy1iayTb+QGZ9oV8qwb32szxcCE1Qwi0NKmcLd5slYHjPgNjSiazA2RxHuS6q4xWdheTBGra6g6EW4lmYRWf7KKBNdGKhZE3WlplEUgX3Q6iqNovCQhZm2MIId5x76xIRxqV9fNpUUyZDmxRpWjYbYuXCIgLOon7pIy\/AkQ0kd+b75teWcygvf9zFTd7H86iWfbVcTbLgSOZYtOnSbCmHna4arz4k1hat6BQ9fruDhIy3kBxLTiAW+j1YkC7OaKWFWtzZWrOJzldfKUb3nB8aHjrJJ2c6FeEyUSSt8oCdZ8BsrKV3PE\/oXRKA1LCJSIGWfOkM+idbIFW3EkO2cdomc51KUNN2ilovXsvT0a7h3kD0SjJMPFwtch2q9mddfRDKosbU8MPpC3bR++fSCnuK0t5MzLxp9n9IIILAeAV9LNnqwGi241p7OwMa7o\/tD\/ulStT1zFpJlR63u7l8ALnmNA\/3g\/bTliEy8FpgIT199yDx4ZEejDRZ4Ui0dEkXnaofYCcc7pGGcj5I4+tSRQR1IKuVklLmQjeRIXMRUITyZr6Y9G0kjyaIrj1xHkM3aKDugRQsUJfxWGlmvS3k\/3nfdMn+u5WUCtsj8E49GxfajqRtQJVbPTBKre4zy0FpMyKg3eeTzKXqGqwJCjkHtxrNfn1HTRupq2+p567VCTOg\/VxJSIV4lUFYWcBGlnLg+xTBX26HdLk3nAPcB6kWhzgdQKAE7Ja7JxQAKVCystBl+\/7c9DULivDykdEPTbJTS4LimgajQDLwG\/jbmo84XJ6Zkh1Kkr3DlruiOPIQwqSwKqeiZH8jYYr6qOLF4sWH\/LWuKWON6keTWuMHUkMWLzWQz2UyXivBWe1blQIt0uyIvPVaa2rsZT4bLM3xKffhWPCvLWosXHvtvqTFJLF6MCfxb1pSnxYsJgX9LSYmHZycbItqpNozavrSmy0EqCH0300PexDbEVl5+y2pAw+oYst+yh+2woxgB0GwuCjLFRZaIc1HCrmsexcXWuYu1yrloK66LOpxclDWgo+ynER5xoQis3q0kAdSyVzqjItYArDwcgE6H9wCXxu1UQmo8OeTIjmpIOG5vKB0VJyRf1r6IEXENMVLN3swxMCiqWpuL9AmyYSXlWfYEBnJEZZO9WkPD1LiYwpouJk\/WRebNGZz\/yyQ97AhDTwQTfvIRfsPNDZIqF1t0zO0MUYI62TbhFhNZ8dFF5Wi7yMRXF5O472KqGqAqsLgo9GC3W\/xFM1EKGQYGgGUlH8jJKqJs4dB0BLrbAdda2pegj6fumUEQ6Sjt2jlsWjwsmYuy5PDhcgiBhQOikGK58RRQag9lJZLLYLoYfvxWHZDcTo1eVBYEB2eWPb2+t9+r3AEmoFO8Bhe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svg{display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-zaf-full.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-zaf-full.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-zaf-full.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">South Africa Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The State of South Africa\u2019s Interdependent Systems<\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ZAF<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Country Systems Risk and Resilience<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">South Africa 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\">The State of South Africa\u2019s Interdependent Systems<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut NQ-ZAF-2026-Q0-1<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). South Africa <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of South Africa\u2019s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. South Africa\u2019s risk runs through its pipes and its grid<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Power shortfall and wastewater stress in a dense province<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\">South Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>11 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>South Africa enters 2027 as a middle-income economy of 63.5 million people whose water and electricity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> are under strain, whose food supply is currently ample, and whose floods have become deadly at provincial scale<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 478 Mt CO\u2082e in 2022 excluding land use, with energy supplying 78% of the total<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. The second climate contribution, submitted on 24 October 2025, sets a 2035 range of 320 to 380 Mt CO\u2082e including land use, and the Climate Action Tracker rates it insufficient<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>. Energy shed by load-shedding fell 82% between the first halves of 2024 and 2025, while the Eskom fleet energy availability factor stayed near 58% and tariffs have risen 190% since 2014<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. Water is the nearer constraint. In the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater systems were in a critical state, and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h85\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.water-systems.chronic-network-leakage\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Water and wastewater system failure\" data-td=\"Persistent loss of treated water from ageing pipes that wastes supply and energy, lowers pressure and lets contaminants in.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H85\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">non-revenue water<\/a> was 47.3%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. The 2025 maize harvest was well above average and the 2026 forecast is 17.1 million tonnes<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Floods killed 459 people in KwaZulu-Natal in 2022 and, by the provincial count, 102 in the Eastern Cape in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. About 7.8 million people were living with HIV in 2026, and life expectancy at birth was 65.5 years for men and 71.0 for women<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for South Africa\u2019s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which grid, water and flood shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It reads against peer distributions and thresholds, and it decides nothing.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the South Africa baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 478 Mt CO\u2082e in 2022 excluding land use, 78% from energy.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Where do emissions stand?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A 2035 range of 320 to 380 Mt CO\u2082e including land use, submitted in October 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What has South Africa committed to?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Load-shedding energy fell 82% in a year, but fleet availability stayed near 58%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How secure is electricity?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">47% of wastewater <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> were in a critical state in the 2025 assessment.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How sound are water services?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Supply is ample now: the 2025 harvest was well above average and 2026 is forecast at 17.1 million tonnes.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is food supply secure?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">459 deaths in KwaZulu-Natal in 2022 and 102 in the Eastern Cape in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What do floods cost in lives?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Headline figures from the 2025 assessment are not bound in this edition.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What is the state of biodiversity?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not bound<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A power shortfall in a dense province with wastewater systems already in a critical state. SCN-ZAF-PWR-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will Q1 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">In the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater treatment <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> were in a critical state, up from 39%, and systems rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-fig1-t\">Wastewater systems by Green Drop result (% of systems)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Critical, previous assessment<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"83.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">39<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Critical, 2025 assessment<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">47<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Excellent or good, previous<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"29.8\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">14<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Excellent or good, 2025<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"17.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">8<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: Department of Water and Sanitation Green Drop results, read in the parliamentary record of the ministry briefing of 9 June 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">Critical systems discharge poorly treated effluent to rivers that downstream towns, farms and ecosystems depend on. Treatment also needs reliable power, so the result links the water system to the grid. Reading the finding against provincial results matters: the critical share rose in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape, and fell in Limpopo and Mpumalanga<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">63.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>population, mid-2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>aged 60 or over, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">478<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt CO\u2082e<\/span><p>emissions excl. land use, 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>people living with HIV, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">65.5 \u00b7 71.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">years<\/span><p>life expectancy, men \u00b7 women, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">provinces<\/span><p>25.7% of people live in Gauteng<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports a coupled reading of South Africa\u2019s risk: the grid is steadier than in 2024, but water services are weaker, and floods have become deadly at provincial scale.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people the risk arrives as a power cut, a water interruption or a flood warning.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Tariffs are up 190% since 2014 and insured flood loss is not bound.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>South Africa publishes strong open assessments of its water systems and its emissions.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the state of South Africa\u2019s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a national <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/glossary\/risk-assessment\/\" data-tgl=\"Nexus Standards glossary\">risk assessment<\/a>, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Bloomberg (ed.), \u201cDeath toll from flooding in South Africa\u2019s KZN rises to 459.\u201d Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000\u20132022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Climate Action Tracker (ed.), \u201cSouth Africa: 2035 NDC.\u201d Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), \u201cLoadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.\u201d CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), \u201cGreen, Blue and No Drop <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> 2025: Ministry briefing,\u201d Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cs-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\">South Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">South Africa\u2019s risk runs through its pipes and its grid<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no province.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is South Africa\u2019s risk concentrated, and in which <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?<\/li><li>Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?<\/li><li>What must the 2027 programme measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five system chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>South Africa is an upper-middle-income economy of 63.5 million people, with a population that is concentrated in a few provinces: Gauteng alone holds 25.7%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: an electricity system that has only recently stopped shedding load at scale, water services in many places in poor condition, and extreme rainfall that now causes deaths at provincial scale.<\/p><p>The grid has improved in one respect. Energy shed by load-shedding fell by 82% between the first halves of 2024 and 2025, to 749 GWh<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. The fleet energy availability factor stayed near 58%, tariffs have risen 190% since 2014, and fossil fuels still supplied 83% of electricity in 2025 on the Ember profile<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup>. The second climate contribution sets a 2035 range of 320 to 380 Mt CO\u2082e including land use<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Water services are the weaker link. In the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> were in a critical state, up from 39%, and only 8% were rated excellent or good<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h85\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.water-systems.chronic-network-leakage\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Water and wastewater system failure\" data-td=\"Persistent loss of treated water from ageing pipes that wastes supply and energy, lowers pressure and lets contaminants in.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H85\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">Non-revenue water<\/a> was 47.3%, and Gauteng alone lost about 431 billion litres a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. Drinking-water quality was reported as generally stable, with 8% of systems in critical risk<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The climate layer adds loss of life. The April 2022 floods in KwaZulu-Natal killed 459 people, and the June 2025 floods in the Eastern Cape killed 102 by the provincial count<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. A rapid attribution study of the 2022 rainfall and a study of the 2015 to 2017 Western Cape drought show that both extremes are in the scientific record<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Food supply is the system in better shape today. The 2025 maize harvest was well above average, and the 2026 harvest is forecast at 17.1 million tonnes, which would be the third-largest on record<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Household <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> is not bound in this edition, because the household survey was not retrieved<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>This edition therefore reads South Africa\u2019s risk as a property of the couplings between grid, water and weather. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-fig1-t\">Where do South Africa\u2019s emissions come from? Emissions by sector, 2022 (Mt CO\u2082e)<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Energy was 374.1 Mt of about 478 Mt excluding land use. Land use removed 43.2 Mt, which brings the total to about 435 Mt including land use<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Energy<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">374.1<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Agriculture<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"14.1\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">52.9<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Industrial processes and product use<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"8.2\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">30.6<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Waste<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"5.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">20.7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2022.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">374.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt CO\u2082e<\/span><p>energy sector, 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">43.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt CO\u2082e<\/span><p>land-use sink, 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22122.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>change in total excl. land use since 2000 (ESTIMATED)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2050<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">net zero<\/span><p>long-term goal named in the tracker analysis<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The South Africa matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nuclear cooling \u00b7 hydro<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">drinking water<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 treatment<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fuel \u00b7 fertiliser \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">facility power \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">reservoirs \u00b7 land use<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">withdrawals \u00b7 nutrients<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">biofuel feedstock<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour \u00b7 disease<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fire on lines \u00b7 biomass<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination \u00b7 soils<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses \u00b7 smoke<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 WAT \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A supply shortfall interrupts pumping and treatment, and exposure to untreated water rises.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> grid and Green Drop evidence<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Heavy rain damages treatment works and roads.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> KwaZulu-Natal 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 INF \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Flooded roads delay distribution to affected districts.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> Eastern Cape 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Multi-year drought forces water restrictions on cities and farms.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> Western Cape 2015\u20132017<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Tariff rises load household and municipal budgets.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> tariffs up 190% since 2014<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.4<\/span><span>Reinforcing loops<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Loop<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First direction<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Second direction<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to biodiversity: flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/td><td>Biodiversity to water: regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Food to biodiversity: land conversion<\/td><td>Biodiversity to food: pollination \u00b7 soils<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"3\">A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), \u201cLoadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.\u201d CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), \u201cSouth Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.\u201d Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Climate Action Tracker (ed.), \u201cSouth Africa: 2035 NDC.\u201d Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), \u201cGreen, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,\u201d Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Bloomberg (ed.), \u201cDeath toll from flooding in South Africa\u2019s KZN rises to 459.\u201d Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>I. Pinto et al., Rapid attribution study of the April 2022 heavy rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. World Weather Attribution, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>F. E. L. Otto, P. Wolski, F. Lehner et al., \u201cAnthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015\u20132017,\u201d Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000\u20132022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c1-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>H. Muller, \u201cCape Town\u2019s drought: don\u2019t blame <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>,\u201d Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174\u2013176, 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c1-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\">South Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>4 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">In the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater treatment <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> were in a critical state, up from 39%, and systems rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-fig1-t\">Wastewater systems by Green Drop result (% of systems)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Critical, previous assessment<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"83.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">39<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Critical, 2025 assessment<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">47<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Excellent or good, previous<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"29.8\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">14<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Excellent or good, 2025<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"17.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">8<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: Department of Water and Sanitation Green Drop results, read in the parliamentary record of the ministry briefing of 9 June 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Critical systems discharge poorly treated effluent to rivers that downstream towns, farms and ecosystems depend on. Treatment also needs reliable power, so the result links the water system to the grid. Reading the finding against provincial results matters: the critical share rose in KwaZulu-Natal, Gauteng and the Eastern Cape, and fell in Limpopo and Mpumalanga<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The next Green Drop special watch report on sewer networks and pump stations, municipal turnaround evidence, and electricity supply to treatment works would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Climate forcing<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Greenhouse-gas emissions were about 478 Mt CO\u2082e in 2022 excluding land use, and land use was a sink of 43.2 Mt CO\u2082e; energy supplied 78% of the total excluding land use.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The second climate contribution, submitted on 24 October 2025, sets a 2035 range of 320 to 380 Mt CO\u2082e including land use and names net zero for 2050; the Climate Action Tracker rates it insufficient.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The April 2022 floods in KwaZulu-Natal killed 459 people, and the June 2025 floods in the Eastern Cape killed 102 by the provincial count.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Energy shed by load-shedding fell 82% between the first halves of 2024 and 2025, to 749 GWh, while the Eskom fleet energy availability factor was 58%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Fossil fuels supplied 83% of electricity in 2025 on the Ember country profile, and solar and wind 13%; national tariffs have risen 190% since 2014.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Water<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">In the 2025 Green Drop assessment 47% of 848 wastewater <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> were in a critical state, up from 39%, and systems rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\"><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h85\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.water-systems.chronic-network-leakage\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Water and wastewater system failure\" data-td=\"Persistent loss of treated water from ageing pipes that wastes supply and energy, lowers pressure and lets contaminants in.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H85\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">Non-revenue water<\/a> was 47.3% nationally in the 2025 assessment, close to the 47.4% of 2023, and Gauteng lost about 431 billion litres a year.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Food<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-FOO-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The 2025 maize harvest was well above average and the 2026 harvest is forecast at 17.1 million tonnes, with cereals at about 19.5 million tonnes.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Health<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 7.8 million people were living with HIV in 2026, and life expectancy at birth was 65.5 years for men and 71.0 for women; 10.7% of the population was 60 or over.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Biodiversity<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not bound<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The 2025 National Biodiversity Assessment was launched on 9 December 2025. Its headline figures are not bound in this edition.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The IMF projects real GDP growth of 1.1% for 2026, and the 2026 electricity tariff increase of 8.76% compares with a 4.5% inflation forecast.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.9<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a power shortfall in a dense province whose wastewater <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> are already in a critical state, with heavy rain added. \u00a79.3<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), \u201cGreen, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,\u201d Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000\u20132022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Climate Action Tracker (ed.), \u201cSouth Africa: 2035 NDC.\u201d Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Bloomberg (ed.), \u201cDeath toll from flooding in South Africa\u2019s KZN rises to 459.\u201d Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), \u201cLoadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.\u201d CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), \u201cSouth Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.\u201d Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports 2023, released 5 December 2023. DWS, Pretoria, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c2-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026. IMF, Washington DC, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\">South Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>4 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>10 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WAT \u00b7 Water<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Wastewater systems in a critical state<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">47<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Up from 39%. <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> rated excellent or good fell from 14% to 8%.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025 (released 2026)<\/span><span>DWS via PMG<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Energy<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Energy shed by load-shedding, first half<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">749<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">GWh<\/span><p>Down from 4,126 GWh in the first half of 2024. Fleet energy availability was 58%.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>CSIR<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FOO \u00b7 Food<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Maize harvest, forecast<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">17.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million t<\/span><p>The third-largest on record if realised. The 2025 harvest was well above average.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>FAO GIEWS<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HLT \u00b7 Health<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People living with HIV<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">7.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Life expectancy at birth is 65.5 years for men and 71.0 for women.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>Stats SA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">BIO \u00b7 Biodiversity<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Ecosystem threat status, national<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">Not bound<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><\/span><p>Source: SANBI National Biodiversity Assessment 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>. Blocker: the assessment site refused automated access at evidence close.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not bound<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>SANBI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Cross-system<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Deaths in the Eastern Cape floods, provincial count<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">102<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p>KwaZulu-Natal recorded 459 deaths in the April 2022 floods.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>provincial report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Many wastewater systems in a critical state; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h85\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.water-systems.chronic-network-leakage\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Water and wastewater system failure\" data-td=\"Persistent loss of treated water from ageing pipes that wastes supply and energy, lowers pressure and lets contaminants in.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H85\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">non-revenue water<\/a> 47.3%; drinking-water quality reported as generally stable.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT \u2192 HLT \u00b7 WAT \u2194 ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Load-shedding energy down 82%; fleet availability near 58%; fossil fuels 83% of electricity.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Well above-average 2025 harvest; ample maize supply in 2026.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2190 CLI, ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>About 7.8 million people living with HIV; life expectancy 65.5 and 71.0 years.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT \u2190 WAT, ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Headline figures of the 2025 assessment not bound.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO \u2194 WAT, FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not bound<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>Deadly floods in 2022 and 2025; drought of 2015 to 2017 in the Western Cape.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">forcing on all systems<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Ageing water networks and a stressed grid; roads cut in floods.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Tariffs up 190% since 2014; modest growth projected; insured flood loss not bound.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2190 CLI, ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2192 ENE, FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>Data-centre and compute demand on power and water not bound in this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 ENE, WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Mining linkages to power and water not bound in this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 ENE, WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Wheat imported; maize exported; fuel and equipment imports not bound.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2192 ENE, FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>compound grid, water and flood stress<\/td><td>power shortfall with failing wastewater <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>47% of wastewater systems critical<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.water-supply-failure\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of piped water of safe quantity or quality, from pump failure, mains break, treatment failure or contamination.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">treatment failure<\/a>; pipe loss<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>load-shedding down 82%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>fleet availability; tariff path<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food<\/td><td>ample maize supply<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>drought; logistics<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>7.8 million people living with HIV<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>service continuity in outages<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td>tariffs up 190% since 2014<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>flood loss; municipal finance<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>population concentrated in three provinces<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>service delivery gaps<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>2035 range submitted<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h4\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.precipitation.heavy-rain\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Precipitation extremes\" data-td=\"Rain falling fast or long enough to overwhelm drainage, soils and streams and to trigger floods and slope failures.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H4\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">extreme rain<\/a> and drought<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>floods with provincial death tolls<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>warning to response chain<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>critical wastewater systems<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>maintenance backlog<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>Gauteng holds 25.7% of people<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>urban supply loss<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>2025 assessment launched<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>headline figures not bound<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><td>continuity<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>dependencies not yet mapped<\/td><td>systemic outages<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act in place<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>coordination across spheres of government<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>national inventory and assessments published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>translation to provinces<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), \u201cGreen, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,\u201d Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), \u201cLoadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.\u201d CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Bloomberg (ed.), \u201cDeath toll from flooding in South Africa\u2019s KZN rises to 459.\u201d Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000\u20132022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\">South Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>3 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>10 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-ZAF-CLI-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Heavy-rain flooding in a populated province<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h4\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.precipitation.heavy-rain\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Precipitation extremes\" data-td=\"Rain falling fast or long enough to overwhelm drainage, soils and streams and to trigger floods and slope failures.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H4\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">intense rainfall<\/a> and cut-off lows<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>informal settlements, roads, river corridors<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>dense low-lying housing; damaged networks<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>disaster-management framework; warnings<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 INF, WAT, HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>annual<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-ZAF-WAT-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Wastewater and supply system failure<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>poor maintenance, power loss, flood damage<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>rivers and towns downstream of critical <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>47% of systems critical<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>Green and Blue Drop oversight; turnaround evidence not bound<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>WAT \u2192 HLT, BIO, FOO<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20135 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-ZAF-ENE-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Electricity supply shortfall<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>low fleet availability and demand peaks<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>water works, clinics, industry, households<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>availability near 58%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>load-shedding fell 82% in a year; new capacity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>ENE \u2192 WAT, HLT, FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20135 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-ZAF-CLI-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Multi-year drought and water restriction<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>successive dry seasons<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>metropolitan supply, irrigated farming<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>high urban losses; dependence on few dams<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>demand management proven in Cape Town 2018<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 FOO, FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20135 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: building and land-use records \u00b7 blocker: not reviewed by evidence close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>national wastewater, drinking-water and water-loss assessments are published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: South African Weather Service and National Disaster Management Centre records \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>the Disaster Management Act sets the planning framework; its use is not bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: fuel, water and grain reserve data \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: disaster-response after-action records \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>load-shedding energy fell 82% in a year, but water-works power continuity is not bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: reconstruction records after the 2022 and 2025 floods \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act provides for adaptation planning; delivery is not bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: social-grant and unemployment-insurance records \u00b7 blocker: not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: Prudential Authority and SARB statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup> \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>the Disaster Management Act sets national and provincial centres; function is not bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>wastewater condition documented as critical in 47% of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: municipal engineering and operator registers \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>a national inventory and a national biodiversity assessment are published<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002. Pretoria, 2002.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), \u201cGreen, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,\u201d Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), \u201cLoadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.\u201d CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Department of Electricity and Energy (ed.), Integrated Resource Plan 2025. Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>H. Muller, \u201cCape Town\u2019s drought: don\u2019t blame <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>,\u201d Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174\u2013176, 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Reserve Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review. SARB, Pretoria, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000\u20132022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c4-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\">South Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Power shortfall and wastewater stress in a dense province<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>5 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-ZAF-PWR-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a winter or summer supply shortfall of several weeks in a dense province, followed by heavy rain<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>load-shedding of 2024 and 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>; KwaZulu-Natal 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>; Eastern Cape 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">grid evidence<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">untreated discharge and supply gaps raise exposure to waterborne disease<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Green Drop evidence<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">heavy rain damages roads and treatment works<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">KwaZulu-Natal 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">INF \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">flooded roads delay food and fuel distribution<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Eastern Cape 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">repair and tariff costs fall on municipal and household budgets<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">tariff path<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">clinics that treat chronic disease lose water and power<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">HIV population<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-ZAF-PWR-01 would travel through South Africa&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Energy to water<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Pumping and treatment lose power where backup is thin. Analogue or source: grid evidence [5].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition ZAF, scenario SCN-ZAF-PWR-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Water to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Untreated discharge and supply gaps raise exposure to waterborne disease. Analogue or source: Green Drop evidence [9].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition ZAF, scenario SCN-ZAF-PWR-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Climate to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Heavy rain damages roads and treatment works. Analogue or source: KwaZulu-Natal 2022 [14].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition ZAF, scenario SCN-ZAF-PWR-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Infrastructure to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Flooded roads delay food and fuel distribution. Analogue or source: Eastern Cape 2025 [15].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition ZAF, scenario SCN-ZAF-PWR-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Energy to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Repair and tariff costs fall on municipal and household budgets. Analogue or source: tariff path [5].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition ZAF, scenario SCN-ZAF-PWR-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Water to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Clinics that treat chronic disease lose water and power. Analogue or source: HIV population [1].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition ZAF, scenario SCN-ZAF-PWR-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">South Africa 2026, scenario SCN-ZAF-PWR-01<\/a> (2026); South Africa 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), \u201cLoadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.\u201d CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Bloomberg (ed.), \u201cDeath toll from flooding in South Africa\u2019s KZN rises to 459.\u201d Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), \u201cGreen, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,\u201d Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c5-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c5-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\">South Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>11 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>35 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports a coupled reading of South Africa\u2019s risk: the grid is steadier than in 2024, but water services are weaker, and floods have become deadly at provincial scale. Evidence is strongest for emissions, population and wastewater results, and thinnest for ecosystem condition and recovery capability.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">CLI-001 \u00b7 WAT-005 \u00b7 ENE-003 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people the risk arrives as a power cut, a water interruption or a flood warning. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how treatment failure and tariffs fall on households and towns.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">WAT-006 \u00b7 ENE-004 \u00b7 CLI-011<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Tariffs are up 190% since 2014 and insured flood loss is not bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-010 \u00b7 CLI-011<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>South Africa publishes strong open assessments of its water systems and its emissions. The 2027 programme should map grid and water dependencies, test the power-and-wastewater pathway at province scale, and bind the missing biodiversity, food-insecurity and loss series.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 A-01 \u00b7 A-02<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for South Africa. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability have been developed?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests reveal?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What did the year establish, and what changes next?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Africa<\/td><td>national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups<\/td><td>national Commons room<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. National adoption of any standard is a decision of the national standards council.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The grid has improved, but almost half of wastewater systems are in a critical state. The baseline treats treatment failure as a coupling problem with power, rivers and health, not as a municipal problem alone.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>The weak link is wastewater<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The 2022 and 2025 floods killed hundreds across two provinces. Every risk object in this edition is read through the lens of how cascading failure follows a flood.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Floods are now a provincial event<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">A well above-average harvest is good news for supply. It does not say who can afford to eat, which the household survey must show.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Supply is ample, access is not bound<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Energy supplies 78% of emissions, and the grid is where reliability and decarbonisation meet. The 2035 range is a ceiling the energy system must meet while keeping the lights on.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Emissions and the grid are one story<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from working groups, consortium institutions and invited experts begin with the Q1 2027 edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Q1 2027 readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First Q1 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td>National risk state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 7 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>NWG delivery register<\/td><td>no groups yet<\/td><td>first monthly outputs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>NNC capability register<\/td><td>membership opens in Q1 2027<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>NLC questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>environment prepared<\/td><td>first sealed cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first correction cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no public authority.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SUBMITTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">UNDER REVIEW<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup> \u00b7 second NDC, 2035 range 320 to 380 Mt CO\u2082e<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNFCCC \u00b7 South Africa<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>SUBMITTED 2025<\/td><td>emissions pathway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act, Act 22 of 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Government of South Africa<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>ENACTED 2024<\/td><td>climate governance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, Act 38 of 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Government of South Africa<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>ENACTED 2024<\/td><td>electricity market<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Carbon Tax Act, Act 15 of 2019<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Government of South Africa<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>carbon pricing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Government of South Africa<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>disaster management<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National Water Act, Act 36 of 1998<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Government of South Africa<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>water resources<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Just Energy Transition Investment Plan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>The Presidency<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>PUBLISHED 2022<\/td><td>transition finance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kunming-Montreal Framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CBD<\/td><td>international<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2022<\/td><td>30by30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> 2015\u20132030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNDRR<\/td><td>international<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2015<\/td><td>disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">risk reduction<\/a><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>South Africa submitted its second NDC on 24 October 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Climate Change Act was enacted in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Electricity Regulation Amendment Act was enacted in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Implementation of sectoral emission targets under the Climate Change Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Integrated Resource Plan and its updates<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Green Drop special watch report on sewer networks; publication not confirmed at evidence close<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. A change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about South Africa\u2019s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>IPCC Synthesis Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>forcing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPBES nexus assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>nexus interlinkages<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zscheischler et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>compound events<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trisos et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment chapter<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>African impacts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pinto et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>attribution study<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>KwaZulu-Natal rainfall<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of the Climate in Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>regional climate<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional reports<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>National inventory 2000\u20132022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>DFFE<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Second NDC<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Government of South Africa<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>targets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Country Climate and Development Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>pathways<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Assessment Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNDRR<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>disaster risk<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa Energy Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>energy access<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Official statistics and national sources<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Mid-year population estimates<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Stats SA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>profile and health<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Crop monitoring<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO GIEWS<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>food<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CSIR<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>grid<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Green, Blue and No Drop<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>DWS<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>water<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Country profile<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Ember<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>power mix<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Health Statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WHO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>peer health data<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Industry, loss data and international sources<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Article IV consultation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>macro<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NatCatSERVICE<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Munich Re<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>global losses<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Financial Stability Review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>SARB<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>listed<\/td><td>finance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Budget Review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>National Treasury<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>listed<\/td><td>public finance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Integrated Resource Plan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Department of Electricity and Energy<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>listed<\/td><td>power plan<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Extreme rainfall events in southern Africa are in the scientific record<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The energy sector dominates national emissions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Cape Town\u2019s 2018 water crisis was averted by demand reduction<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How much of the grid\u2019s improvement in 2025 is demand-side rather than supply-side<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How fast wastewater <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> can be restored to compliance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How much of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> is a matter of access rather than supply<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from Q1 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), \u201cLoadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.\u201d CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNFCCC (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>. United Nations, Paris, 2015.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, Act 38 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Carbon Tax Act, Act 15 of 2019. Pretoria, 2019.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002. Pretoria, 2002.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), National Water Act, Act 36 of 1998. Pretoria, 1998.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>The Presidency of South Africa (ed.), South Africa\u2019s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) 2023\u20132027. Pretoria, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15\/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2015\u20132030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Climate Action Tracker (ed.), \u201cSouth Africa: 2035 NDC.\u201d Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Department of Electricity and Energy (ed.), Integrated Resource Plan 2025. Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), \u201cGreen, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,\u201d Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., \u201cAfrica,\u201d in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>I. Pinto et al., Rapid attribution study of the April 2022 heavy rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. World Weather Attribution, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000\u20132022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), South Africa Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank Group, Washington DC, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), \u201cSouth Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.\u201d Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), South Africa: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Country Report. IMF, Washington DC, February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Reserve Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review. SARB, Pretoria, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>National Treasury (ed.), Budget Review 2026. National Treasury, Pretoria, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>H. Muller, \u201cCape Town\u2019s drought: don\u2019t blame climate change,\u201d Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174\u2013176, 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\">South Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>4 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a power shortfall interrupt pumping and treatment in a dense province, and how long would services take to recover?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-ZAF-ENE-01 \u00b7 grid and water continuity; first output: dependency graph for two provinces.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where are wastewater <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in a critical state, and which rivers and settlements sit downstream?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-ZAF-WAT-02 \u00b7 wastewater and river risk; first output: system-by-system register.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How much of urban supply is lost, and what does it cost in energy?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-ZAF-WAT-03 \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h85\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.water-systems.chronic-network-leakage\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Water and wastewater system failure\" data-td=\"Persistent loss of treated water from ageing pipes that wastes supply and energy, lowers pressure and lets contaminants in.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H85\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">non-revenue water<\/a>; first output: loss-and-energy table for five metros.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How exposed are food and fertiliser supply to concurrent drought, price and logistics shocks?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-ZAF-FOO-04 \u00b7 food supply exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where do flood losses fall on households, municipalities and the national budget?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-ZAF-FIN-05 \u00b7 flood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a>; first output: peril-by-province loss table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do river basins and dams perform under multi-year drought?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-ZAF-WAT-01 \u00b7 workstream; first output: basin performance note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">What is the condition of ecosystems that supply water, and how is it changing?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note against the 2025 assessment.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-ZAF-ENE-01<\/span><\/td><td>Grid and water continuity<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-ZAF-WAT-02<\/span><\/td><td>Wastewater and river risk<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-ZAF-WAT-03<\/span><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h85\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.water-systems.chronic-network-leakage\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Water and wastewater system failure\" data-td=\"Persistent loss of treated water from ageing pipes that wastes supply and energy, lowers pressure and lets contaminants in.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H85\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">Non-revenue water<\/a> and energy<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-ZAF-FOO-04<\/span><\/td><td>Food supply exposure<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-ZAF-FIN-05<\/span><\/td><td>Flood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PRJ-ZAF-ENE-01a<\/span><\/td><td>Two-province grid and water dependency graph<\/td><td>Project<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-ZAF-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Power, wastewater and flood Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">South Africa is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in South Africa from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">One National Agenda<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">bounded national questions for the year<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">DRAFT 2027 \u00b7 agenda review at the Q1 alignment<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Desk<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">coordination, records, routing and continuity<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">DESIGNED \u00b7 constituted in Q1 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the country as a system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with the first Foundry cut<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Portfolio<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">7 PROPOSED \u00b7 admission at the Q1 alignment<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Foundry<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">continuous computational environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PREPARED \u00b7 first sealed cut NQ-ZAF-2027-Q1<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Reports<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">quarterly and annual publication<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE ISSUED \u00b7 Q1 2027 \u00b7 State &amp; Agenda<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate set in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">after-action, correction and renewal<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in Q2 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>Q4 2027 annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-ZAF-2027-01 \u00b7 Power, wastewater and flood Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor (NLC) \u00b7 Institutional anchor (NNC) \u00b7 Mission lead (NWG)<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>CLI-001 \u00b7 emissions<\/td><td>public record<\/td><td>reference for the 2027 series<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENE-003 \u00b7 load-shedding<\/td><td>INI-ZAF-ENE-01<\/td><td>grid and water continuity<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WAT-005 \u00b7 Green Drop<\/td><td>INI-ZAF-WAT-02<\/td><td>wastewater and river risk<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WAT-006 \u00b7 water loss<\/td><td>INI-ZAF-WAT-03<\/td><td>loss and energy<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FOO-007 \u00b7 food<\/td><td>INI-ZAF-FOO-04<\/td><td>food supply exposure<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CLI-011 \u00b7 floods<\/td><td>INI-ZAF-FIN-05 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td>flood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HLT-008 \u00b7 health<\/td><td>research question A-01<\/td><td>service continuity<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-ZAF-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the national pathway<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. Competent authorities receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from Q1 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Weather warnings and rainfall<\/td><td>South African Weather Service<\/td><td>real time<\/td><td>CLI findings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Grid status and load-shedding<\/td><td>Eskom<\/td><td>daily<\/td><td>ENE findings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dam levels<\/td><td>Department of Water and Sanitation<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><td>RSK-ZAF-CLI-004<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Green, Blue and No Drop reports<\/td><td>Department of Water and Sanitation<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>WAT-005<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Crop estimates<\/td><td>Crop Estimates Committee<\/td><td>monthly in season<\/td><td>FOO-007<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Crop monitoring brief<\/td><td>FAO GIEWS<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>FOO-007<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population and labour statistics<\/td><td>Statistics South Africa<\/td><td>per release<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">quarterly publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-ZAF-001<\/td><td>Load-shedding energy down 82% in a year<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c7-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>ENE \u00b7 FIN<\/td><td>risk object RSK-ZAF-ENE-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-ZAF-002<\/td><td>Critical wastewater <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> up to 47%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c7-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>WAT \u00b7 HLT<\/td><td>initiative A-02<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-ZAF-003<\/td><td>Provincial flood tolls in 2022 and 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c7-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c7-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 INF<\/td><td>research question A-01<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), \u201cLoadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.\u201d CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c7-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), \u201cGreen, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,\u201d Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c7-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Bloomberg (ed.), \u201cDeath toll from flooding in South Africa\u2019s KZN rises to 459.\u201d Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c7-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c7-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c7-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\">South Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Water, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Water services are the weaker link. Many wastewater <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> are in a critical state, and almost half of the water put into supply is lost before it is billed.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">47<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>wastewater systems critical, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">47.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h85\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.water-systems.chronic-network-leakage\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Water and wastewater system failure\" data-td=\"Persistent loss of treated water from ageing pipes that wastes supply and energy, lowers pressure and lets contaminants in.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H85\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">non-revenue water<\/a>, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">431<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion litres<\/span><p>lost a year in Gauteng<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Wastewater<\/td><td>47% of 848 systems critical; 8% excellent or good<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Drinking water<\/td><td>generally stable; 8% of systems in critical risk<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water loss<\/td><td>national non-revenue water 47.3%<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewable supply<\/td><td>renewable water per person not bound<\/td><td>FAO AQUASTAT<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 WAT pumping and treatment<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 HLT drinking water and sanitation<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 WAT drought and flood<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 BIO effluent in rivers<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>per-system and per-municipality scores<\/li><li>renewable water per person<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The next Green Drop special watch report, municipal turnaround evidence and dam levels through the dry season.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Water services rest with municipalities and the Department of Water and Sanitation; this chapter assesses none of them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Energy, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Load-shedding has fallen sharply, but fleet availability is near 58% and fossil fuels supplied 83% of electricity in 2025.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">749<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">GWh<\/span><p>shed in the first half of 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">58<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>fleet energy availability<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">83<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>fossil share of electricity, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Load-shedding<\/td><td>energy shed down 82% year on year<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Availability<\/td><td>fleet energy availability factor 58%<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tariffs<\/td><td>up 190% since 2014; 8.76% rise for 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2025 generation by source<\/td><td>full-year shares not bound<\/td><td>Eskom report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 WAT pumping and treatment<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 HLT clinics and cold chains<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 ENE demand peaks<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 FIN tariffs and municipal budgets<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>2025 generation by source<\/li><li>2023\u20132024 emissions inventory<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Winter availability, tariff decisions, and implementation of the Integrated Resource Plan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Energy decisions rest with the government, the regulator and Eskom; this chapter assesses none of them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Food supply is currently ample: the 2025 maize harvest was well above average and the 2026 forecast is 17.1 million tonnes.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">17.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million t<\/span><p>maize forecast, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">19.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million t<\/span><p>cereals forecast, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million t<\/span><p>maize exports forecast, 2025\/26<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Maize<\/td><td>2026 forecast 17.1 million tonnes<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cereals<\/td><td>about 19.5 million tonnes forecast<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prices<\/td><td>wholesale maize about 30% to 40% lower year on year in March 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Household <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><td>prevalence not bound<\/td><td>Stats SA household survey<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 FOO drought and heat<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 FOO fuel and fertiliser<\/li><li>INF \u2192 FOO roads and logistics<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 FOO irrigation<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>household food insecurity<\/li><li>import dependence by commodity<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Rainfall in the 2026\u201327 season, crop estimates and input costs.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes the food system; it makes no statement on agricultural or trade policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">About 7.8 million people were living with HIV in 2026, which makes continuity of care a lifeline question in every outage and flood.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>people living with HIV, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">65.5 \u00b7 71.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">years<\/span><p>life expectancy, men \u00b7 women<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>aged 60 or over<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>HIV<\/td><td>about 7.8 million people; 12.3% prevalence in the population<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Life expectancy<\/td><td>65.5 years for men and 71.0 for women<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ageing<\/td><td>10.7% aged 60 or over<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water-related illness<\/td><td>national series not bound<\/td><td>Ministry of Health records<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>WAT \u2192 HLT water and sanitation<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 HLT clinics and cold chains<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 HLT floods and heat<\/li><li>INF \u2192 HLT access to care<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>water-related illness series<\/li><li>clinic continuity in outages<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Treatment continuity during outages and floods, and the next mid-year estimates.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Health planning rests with national and provincial authorities. No personal health data are used or shown in Reports.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The National Biodiversity Assessment 2025 was launched on 9 December 2025. Its headline figures are not bound in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9 Dec<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">2025<\/span><p>assessment launched<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">Not bound<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\"><\/span><p>ecosystem threat status<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">30<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>global target by 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Assessment<\/td><td>fourth edition launched 9 December 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Threat status<\/td><td>share of ecosystem types threatened not bound<\/td><td>SANBI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Protection<\/td><td>share of land and sea protected not bound<\/td><td>SANBI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Condition<\/td><td>not bound outside protected areas<\/td><td>SANBI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>BIO \u2192 WAT watershed regulation<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 FOO pollination and soils<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 BIO effluent in rivers<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 BIO drought and fire<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ecosystem threat status<\/li><li>protected-area coverage<\/li><li>condition outside protected areas<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The headline figures and key messages of the 2025 assessment, once retrieved.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Biodiversity is not reduced to a single number. Where valuation is used later, it will never be presented as the whole value.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), \u201cGreen, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,\u201d Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports 2023, released 5 December 2023. DWS, Pretoria, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), AQUASTAT: South Africa country profile and water resources data. FAO, Rome.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), \u201cLoadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.\u201d CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), \u201cSouth Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.\u201d Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd (ed.), Integrated Report 2025. Eskom, Johannesburg, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Department of Electricity and Energy (ed.), Integrated Resource Plan 2025. Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-c8-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15\/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\">South Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>12 tables<\/span><span>6 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Emissions excluding land use, 2022<\/td><td>374.1 + 30.6 + 52.9 + 20.7<\/td><td>\u2248 478.3 Mt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Emissions including land use, 2022<\/td><td>478.3 \u2212 43.2<\/td><td>\u2248 435.1 Mt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Change excl. land use since 2000<\/td><td>478.3 vs 489.2 (2000 sum of sectors)<\/td><td>\u2248 \u22122.2%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Cut to the 2035 range, excl. land use<\/td><td>1 \u2212 397 \u00f7 478.3 and 1 \u2212 337 \u00f7 478.3<\/td><td>\u2248 17% to 29%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, National Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-ZAF-NATIONAL \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent South Africa as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> with forcing and transmission layers<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of systems<\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from evidence and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>national scale; not for province or asset-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the coupled reading of risk in South Africa.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, operational decisions, provincial comparisons or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>NQ-ZAF-2026-Q0-1<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>49 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>NQ-ZAF-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Q1 2027<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>qualified source bindings with versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>National Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to the cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Population and HIV<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Jul 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Jul 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GHG inventory<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>Feb 2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next inventory, draft 1990\u20132024 not read<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2035 climate range<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Oct 2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next NDC cycle<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Load-shedding energy<\/td><td>H1 2025<\/td><td>Sep 2025<\/td><td>half-yearly<\/td><td>later halves not bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Green Drop results<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Mar 2026<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>special watch report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h85\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.water-systems.chronic-network-leakage\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Water and wastewater system failure\" data-td=\"Persistent loss of treated water from ageing pipes that wastes supply and energy, lowers pressure and lets contaminants in.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H85\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">Non-revenue water<\/a><\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Mar 2026<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maize forecast<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Apr 2026<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>crop estimates<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity assessment<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Dec 2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>figures to be bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Flood deaths<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jul 2025<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>per event<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Climate forcing<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>rainfall extremes by province<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>2025 generation by source<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>household <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>water-related illness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>per-system results; renewable supply<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>threat status and condition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>insured share of loss<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Digital<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>dependency mapping<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment under the UNFCCC. Periodic, calendar-year basis. Role: binds CLI-001 and the sector figures.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-ZAF-001<\/h3><p>National inventory 2000\u20132022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the Department of Water and Sanitation; read through the record of the ministry briefing to the committee. Periodic; released 31 March 2026. Role: binds WAT-005 and WAT-006, labelled as reported.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-ZAF-002<\/h3><p>Green Drop results<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-ZAF-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-ZAF-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>all sectors and gases<\/td><td>all assessed <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 37 months after the inventory year<\/td><td>about 3 months before the briefing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>back-revised with each inventory<\/td><td>revised with each assessment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>published methodology<\/td><td>risk scores; method not read in full<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>UNFCCC review process<\/td><td>not stated in the record read<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>DWS Green Drop report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>, read in full for per-system scores<\/li><li>DFFE draft inventory 1990\u20132024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>, when final<\/li><li>CSIR and Eskom statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup>, second half of 2025<\/li><li>SANBI assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>, headline figures<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>CSIR<\/td><td>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DFFE<\/td><td>Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DWS<\/td><td>Department of Water and Sanitation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EAF<\/td><td>energy availability factor<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO<\/td><td>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GIEWS<\/td><td>Global Information and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning-system\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An integrated system of risk knowledge, monitoring and forecasting, warning dissemination and preparedness that enables timely action ahead of hazards.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early Warning System<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF<\/td><td>International Monetary Fund<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LULUCF<\/td><td>land use, land-use change and forestry<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NBA<\/td><td>National Biodiversity Assessment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NDC<\/td><td>nationally determined contribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>PMG<\/td><td>Parliamentary Monitoring Group<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SANBI<\/td><td>South African National Biodiversity Institute<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SARB<\/td><td>South African Reserve Bank<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Stats SA<\/td><td>Statistics South Africa<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the baseline indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-ZAF-PWR-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>Q1 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>Q2 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Provincial notes<\/td><td>atlas cards for every province<\/td><td>Q2 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition, wastewater system in a critical state<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>a treatment system whose Green Drop score falls below 31%<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>share of assessed <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Scope<\/dt><dd>municipal wastewater treatment systems assessed in the national round<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>DWS Green Drop results<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Revision<\/dt><dd>reassessed in each national round<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>scoring rules were read in a secondary record, not the report itself<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000\u20132022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), \u201cGreen, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,\u201d Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), \u201cLoadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.\u201d CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd (ed.), Integrated Report 2025. Eskom, Johannesburg, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ca-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\">South Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>7 tables<\/span><span>31 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GHG emissions excl. land use (sum of sectors)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">478.3<\/span><\/td><td>Mt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GHG emissions incl. land use (sum of sectors)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">435.1<\/span><\/td><td>Mt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy sector emissions<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">374.1<\/span><\/td><td>Mt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Land-use sink<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">43.2<\/span><\/td><td>Mt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>2035 range incl. land use<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">320 to 380<\/span><\/td><td>Mt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>2035<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy shed by load-shedding<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">749<\/span><\/td><td>GWh<\/td><td>H1 2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fleet energy availability factor<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">58<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>H1 2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wastewater <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in a critical state<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">47<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h85\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.water-systems.chronic-network-leakage\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Water and wastewater system failure\" data-td=\"Persistent loss of treated water from ageing pipes that wastes supply and energy, lowers pressure and lets contaminants in.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H85\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">Non-revenue water<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">47.3<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maize harvest forecast<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">17.1<\/span><\/td><td>million t<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">63.5<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Aged 60 or over<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">10.7<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People living with HIV<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">7.8<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Life expectancy at birth, men<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">65.5<\/span><\/td><td>years<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Life expectancy at birth, women<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">71.0<\/span><\/td><td>years<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deaths in KwaZulu-Natal floods<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">459<\/span><\/td><td>deaths<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deaths in Eastern Cape floods<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">102<\/span><\/td><td>deaths<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewable water per person<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Not bound<\/span><\/td><td>m\u00b3<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ecosystem threat status<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Not bound<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Household <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Not bound<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0AGHG%20emissions%20excl.%20land%20use%20(sum%20of%20sectors)%2C478.3%2CMt%20CO%E2%82%82e%2C2022%2CESTIMATED%2C%5B2%5D%0AGHG%20emissions%20incl.%20land%20use%20(sum%20of%20sectors)%2C435.1%2CMt%20CO%E2%82%82e%2C2022%2CESTIMATED%2C%5B2%5D%0AEnergy%20sector%20emissions%2C374.1%2CMt%20CO%E2%82%82e%2C2022%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0ALand-use%20sink%2C43.2%2CMt%20CO%E2%82%82e%2C2022%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0A2035%20range%20incl.%20land%20use%2C320%20to%20380%2CMt%20CO%E2%82%82e%2C2035%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0AEnergy%20shed%20by%20load-shedding%2C749%2CGWh%2CH1%202025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B5%5D%0AFleet%20energy%20availability%20factor%2C58%2C%25%2CH1%202025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B5%5D%0AWastewater%20systems%20in%20a%20critical%20state%2C47%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0ANon-revenue%20water%2C47.3%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0AMaize%20harvest%20forecast%2C17.1%2Cmillion%20t%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0APopulation%2C63.5%2Cmillion%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AAged%2060%20or%20over%2C10.7%2C%25%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0APeople%20living%20with%20HIV%2C7.8%2Cmillion%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Life%20expectancy%20at%20birth%2C%20men%22%2C65.5%2Cyears%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Life%20expectancy%20at%20birth%2C%20women%22%2C71.0%2Cyears%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0ADeaths%20in%20KwaZulu-Natal%20floods%2C459%2Cdeaths%2C2022%2CREPORTED%2C%5B14%5D%0ADeaths%20in%20Eastern%20Cape%20floods%2C102%2Cdeaths%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0ARenewable%20water%20per%20person%2CNot%20bound%2Cm%C2%B3%2Cn%2Fa%2CNOT%20BOUND%2C%5B33%5D%0AEcosystem%20threat%20status%2CNot%20bound%2C%25%2Cn%2Fa%2CNOT%20BOUND%2C%5B13%5D%0AHousehold%20food%20insecurity%2CNot%20bound%2C%25%2Cn%2Fa%2CNOT%20BOUND%2C%5B38%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22South%20Africa%20Systems%20Risk%20and%20Resilience%20Report%202026%3A%20The%20State%20of%20South%20Africa%E2%80%99s%20Interdependent%20Systems%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22GHG%20emissions%20excl.%20land%20use%20(sum%20of%20sectors)%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22478.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Mt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ESTIMATED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22GHG%20emissions%20incl.%20land%20use%20(sum%20of%20sectors)%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22435.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Mt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ESTIMATED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Energy%20sector%20emissions%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22374.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Mt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Land-use%20sink%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2243.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Mt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%222035%20range%20incl.%20land%20use%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22320%20to%20380%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Mt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222035%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Energy%20shed%20by%20load-shedding%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22749%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22GWh%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22H1%202025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B5%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Fleet%20energy%20availability%20factor%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2258%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22H1%202025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B5%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Wastewater%20systems%20in%20a%20critical%20state%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2247%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Non-revenue%20water%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2247.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Maize%20harvest%20forecast%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2217.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20t%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Population%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2263.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Aged%2060%20or%20over%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2210.7%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20living%20with%20HIV%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%227.8%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Life%20expectancy%20at%20birth%2C%20men%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2265.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22years%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Life%20expectancy%20at%20birth%2C%20women%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2271.0%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22years%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Deaths%20in%20KwaZulu-Natal%20floods%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22459%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B14%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Deaths%20in%20Eastern%20Cape%20floods%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22102%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Renewable%20water%20per%20person%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Not%20bound%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22m%C2%B3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22n%2Fa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22NOT%20BOUND%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B33%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Ecosystem%20threat%20status%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Not%20bound%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22n%2Fa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22NOT%20BOUND%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B13%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Household%20food%20insecurity%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Not%20bound%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22n%2Fa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22NOT%20BOUND%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B38%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Totals marked ESTIMATED are sums of reported sector values. Values marked NOT BOUND name their source and blocker in the finding or chapter that uses them. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>National source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Mid-year population estimates<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2002\u20132026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>profile \u00b7 HLT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National inventory<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national technical authority<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2000\u20132022<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 ENE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Second NDC<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>government and independent assessment<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2035<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>CLI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>research council and think tank<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>ENE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Crop monitoring<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>FOO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Green, Blue and No Drop<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ministry<\/td><td>national and provincial<\/td><td>2023\u20132025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>WAT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF country documents<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>international body<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2025\u20132026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>FIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national agency<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>BIO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Flood tolls<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>provincial authorities via press<\/td><td>provincial<\/td><td>2022 \u00b7 2025<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>CLI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Attribution and drought studies<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>peer-reviewed<\/td><td>regional<\/td><td>2018\u20132022<\/td><td>per study<\/td><td>CLI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Legal texts<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>government<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>1998\u20132024<\/td><td>per amendment<\/td><td>standards<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cross-checks and capacity statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agencies, IRENA and IEA<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2024\u20132026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>listed as fill sources<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Series records<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Reports series<\/td><td>series<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>per edition<\/td><td>method and peers<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, South Africa by province<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates for every province follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Selected populations, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Gauteng<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">12.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>KwaZulu-Natal<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Northern Cape<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">25.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>share of people in Gauteng<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, South Africa by province<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Gauteng<\/td><td>urban water loss, wastewater stress, grid dependence<\/td><td>finance, industry, water supply<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h85\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.water-systems.chronic-network-leakage\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Water and wastewater system failure\" data-td=\"Persistent loss of treated water from ageing pipes that wastes supply and energy, lowers pressure and lets contaminants in.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H85\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">non-revenue water<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>KwaZulu-Natal<\/td><td>floods, wastewater stress<\/td><td>ports, industry, housing<\/td><td>floods 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eastern Cape<\/td><td>floods, rural service gaps<\/td><td>rural communities, roads<\/td><td>floods 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Western Cape<\/td><td>drought and water restriction<\/td><td>cities, irrigated farming<\/td><td>Day Zero crisis 2018<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Limpopo and Mpumalanga<\/td><td>wastewater results improved<\/td><td>power, mining, farming<\/td><td>Green Drop 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Free State and Northern Cape<\/td><td>critical wastewater <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><td>small towns, farming<\/td><td>Green Drop 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any province.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Atlas card, Eastern Cape<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">province<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">floods<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">rural<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">roads<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>water, roads, health and homes<\/dd><dt>Defining events<\/dt><dd>June 2025 floods, 102 deaths by the provincial count<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 INF; CLI \u2192 WAT; INF \u2192 HLT<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>not bound<\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>recovery progress; wastewater condition; clinic continuity<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>A-01 \u00b7 A-02<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The share of Eastern Cape wastewater systems in a critical state rose from 39% to 54% between assessments [9].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">WATER<\/h3><p>Critical share of systems<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Roads and bridges failed in the June 2025 floods, which delayed access to affected communities. Source for extent: not bound; blocker: not retrieved.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">ROADS<\/h3><p>Cut by floodwater<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Clinic access during and after the floods is not bound. Source: provincial health department records. Blocker: not retrieved.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">HEALTH<\/h3><p>Clinic continuity<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Atlas cards are generated for every province from Q2 2027 with consistent fields and evidence-age labels. The Eastern Cape is shown first because it holds the most recent deadly flood in the record.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>South Africa system card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The card through which South Africa appears in the Africa regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">South Africa system card<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline state<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>many critical wastewater <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><td>power loss into water works<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>load-shedding down; availability near 58%<\/td><td>supply shortfall<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>ample maize supply<\/td><td>drought and logistics<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<\/td><td>large HIV population on a long-term care path<\/td><td>service continuity in outages<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>assessment 2025 not bound<\/td><td>ecosystem condition<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Context<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Archetype<\/dt><dd>upper-middle-income economy with a coal-dominated grid and strained water services<\/dd><dt>Population<\/dt><dd>63.5 million (2026)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Trade<\/dt><dd>maize exporter and wheat importer; wider trade not bound<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Hazard<\/dt><dd>floods with provincial death tolls<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">South Africa\u2019s card sits beside its neighbours\u2019; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">AFRICA REGIONAL EDITION<\/h3><p>One regional system<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">South African evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES<\/h3><p>Same findings, same IDs<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">In the global edition South Africa is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">GLOBAL FLAGSHIP<\/h3><p>Peers, not ranks<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and South Africa\u2019s national ownership of its edition is unaffected.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>20 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>NQ-ZAF-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000\u20132022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), \u201cLoadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.\u201d CSIR, Pretoria, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), \u201cGreen, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,\u201d Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Bloomberg (ed.), \u201cDeath toll from flooding in South Africa\u2019s KZN rises to 459.\u201d Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), AQUASTAT: South Africa country profile and water resources data. FAO, Rome.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Climate Action Tracker (ed.), \u201cSouth Africa: 2035 NDC.\u201d Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), \u201cSouth Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.\u201d Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports 2023, released 5 December 2023. DWS, Pretoria, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), South Africa: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Country Report. IMF, Washington DC, February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026. IMF, Washington DC, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>I. Pinto et al., Rapid attribution study of the April 2022 heavy rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. World Weather Attribution, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>F. E. L. Otto, P. Wolski, F. Lehner et al., \u201cAnthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015\u20132017,\u201d Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>H. Muller, \u201cCape Town\u2019s drought: don\u2019t blame <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>,\u201d Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174\u2013176, 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, Act 38 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Carbon Tax Act, Act 15 of 2019. Pretoria, 2019.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002. Pretoria, 2002.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), National Water Act, Act 36 of 1998. Pretoria, 1998.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNAIDS (ed.), AIDSinfo: South Africa country data. UNAIDS, Geneva, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. UN DESA, New York, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cb-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-zaf-cb-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\">South Africa 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>11 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>49 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), Mid-year population estimates 2026, Statistical release P0302. Stats SA, Pretoria, July 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Department of Forestry, Fisheries and the Environment (ed.), GHG Inventory for South Africa: 2000\u20132022, 9th National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report. DFFE, Pretoria, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Second Nationally Determined Contribution. Submission to the UNFCCC, 24 October 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Climate Action Tracker (ed.), \u201cSouth Africa: 2035 NDC.\u201d Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, December 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Council for Scientific and Industrial Research (ed.), \u201cLoadshedding down 82% in H1 2025 as demand eases and EAF edges up, but tariffs still exceed inflation.\u201d CSIR, Pretoria, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), \u201cSouth Africa: electricity country profile, 2025.\u201d Ember, London, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), GIEWS Country Brief: South Africa, reference date 22 April 2026. FAO, Rome, 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Green Drop, Blue Drop and No Drop reports 2025, released 31 March 2026. DWS, Pretoria, 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Parliamentary Monitoring Group (ed.), \u201cGreen, Blue and No Drop Reports 2025: Ministry briefing,\u201d Portfolio Committee on Water and Sanitation, 9 June 2026. PMG, Cape Town, 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Department of Water and Sanitation (ed.), Blue Drop, Green Drop and No Drop reports 2023, released 5 December 2023. DWS, Pretoria, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), South Africa: 2025 Article IV Consultation, Country Report. IMF, Washington DC, February 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook Update, July 2026. IMF, Washington DC, 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>South African National Biodiversity Institute (ed.), National Biodiversity Assessment 2025: summary of findings and key messages. SANBI, Pretoria, launched 9 December 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Bloomberg (ed.), \u201cDeath toll from flooding in South Africa\u2019s KZN rises to 459.\u201d Bloomberg News, 29 May 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 7<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Eastern Cape Provincial Government (ed.), flood recovery update reporting 102 flood-related deaths. Reported by Pondoland Times, Eastern Cape, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 7<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>I. Pinto et al., Rapid attribution study of the April 2022 heavy rainfall in KwaZulu-Natal, South Africa. World Weather Attribution, 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>F. E. L. Otto, P. Wolski, F. Lehner et al., \u201cAnthropogenic influence on the drivers of the Western Cape drought 2015\u20132017,\u201d Environmental Research Letters, vol. 13, 2018. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>H. Muller, \u201cCape Town\u2019s drought: don\u2019t blame <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>,\u201d Nature, vol. 559, pp. 174\u2013176, 2018. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>C. H. Trisos, I. O. Adelekan, E. Totin et al., \u201cAfrica,\u201d in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability. Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. Cambridge University Press, 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), South Africa Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank Group, Washington DC, 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Climate Change Act, Act 22 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>The Presidency of South Africa (ed.), South Africa\u2019s Just Energy Transition Investment Plan (JET IP) 2023\u20132027. Pretoria, 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Electricity Regulation Amendment Act, Act 38 of 2024. Pretoria, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Carbon Tax Act, Act 15 of 2019. Pretoria, 2019. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), Disaster Management Act, Act 57 of 2002. Pretoria, 2002. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>Government of South Africa (ed.), National Water Act, Act 36 of 1998. Pretoria, 1998. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Eskom Holdings SOC Ltd (ed.), Integrated Report 2025. Eskom, Johannesburg, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Department of Electricity and Energy (ed.), Integrated Resource Plan 2025. Pretoria, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>South African Reserve Bank (ed.), Financial Stability Review. SARB, Pretoria, 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>National Treasury (ed.), Budget Review 2026. National Treasury, Pretoria, 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNAIDS (ed.), AIDSinfo: South Africa country data. UNAIDS, Geneva, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>Food and Agriculture Organization (ed.), AQUASTAT: South Africa country profile and water resources data. FAO, Rome. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>United Nations Department of Economic and Social Affairs (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024. UN DESA, New York, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Africa 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Africa Energy Outlook 2022. IEA, Paris, 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>Statistics South Africa (ed.), General Household Survey 2023, Statistical release P0318. Stats SA, Pretoria, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015\u20132030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15\/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNFCCC (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>. United Nations, Paris, 2015. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-ref-49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>South Africa <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Edition 2026\u20132030<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>Q1 2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2027-Q1-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-zaf-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">ZAF<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-zaf-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-COUNTRY-ZAF-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-NAT-ZAF-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for South Africa; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20South%20Africa\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20South%20Africa&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20South%20Africa\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20South%20Africa\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20South%20Africa\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on South Africa, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on South Africa for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on South Africa Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;South Africa&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Country Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;South Africa&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Country Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-zaf-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-zaf-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>ZAF edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> South Africa 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; ZAF is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on South Africa.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Country Systems Risk and Resilience<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/zaf\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. 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