{"id":2606,"date":"2026-10-20T10:50:25","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T10:50:25","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T10:50:25","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T10:50:25","slug":"sr-01","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Nexus Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-01 \u00b7 Global Polycrisis 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- Nexus Reports \u00b7 GCRI \u00b7 https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/ \u00b7 source sha256:d36fae234295c565769f84cb4e2666e6c79ac98ddf89ada064ae3ab28ac84bb7 \u00b7 generated by integrations\/wordpress\/nexus-reports\/build.mjs, never edit this file --><script type=\"text\/x-nexus\" class=\"_iub_cs_skip\" id=\"nxe-nr-tools\" 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data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><p class=\"nx-nr-scene-note\">Static view: the interactive graph runs where this page's scripts and WebGL can; every node is also linked on this page.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-scene-intro\"><div class=\"nx-theme-toggle\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Appearance of this page\" hidden><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"light\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Light<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"dark\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Dark<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"auto\" aria-pressed=\"true\">System<\/button><\/div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Nexus Reports \u00b7 The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation \u00b7 Baseline Edition 2026<\/p><span class=\"nx-scene-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nx-scene-accent\">Nexus Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-01<\/p><h1 id=\"nx-scene-title\" class=\"nx-scene-title\">Global Polycrisis 2026<\/h1><p class=\"nx-scene-lede\">How crises become entangled, common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, food, energy, finance, health and conflict, at the 2026 baseline<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-surface\">Read the decision surface<\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-findings\">The 12 findings<\/a><\/div><\/div><dl class=\"nx-scene-stats\"><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Findings<\/dt><dd>12<\/dd><dd class=\"nx-scene-stat-note\">each with its status and source<\/dd><\/div><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Sources<\/dt><dd>48<\/dd><dd class=\"nx-scene-stat-note\">NR-CIT-1<\/dd><\/div><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dd class=\"nx-scene-stat-note\">DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><\/div><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Status<\/dt><dd>Draft<\/dd><dd class=\"nx-scene-stat-note\">in stewardship review<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-identity\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-identity-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u00b7<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">The record<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-identity-h\">The edition, its identifiers and its stewards.<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-cover-grid\"><div><article class=\"nx-nr-cover\" data-size=\"lg\" data-f=\"E\" data-status=\"drafted\" aria-label=\"Global Polycrisis, Baseline Edition 2026, in stewardship review\"><span class=\"nx-nr-cover-plate\"><span class=\"nx-nr-cover-top\"><span class=\"nx-nr-mark\" data-size=\"lg\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"nx-nr-ring\"><\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-mono\">NR<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-word\">NEXUS REPORTS<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-code\">SR-01<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-band\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-series\">Strategic systems<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-title\">Global Polycrisis<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-ed\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-sub\">How crises become entangled, common causes, domino effects and feedbacks across climate, food, energy, finance, health and conflict, at the 2026 baseline<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-foot\"><span class=\"nx-nr-cover-id\">NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-meta\"><span class=\"nx-nr-cover-state\" data-status=\"drafted\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>In stewardship review<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-wave\">W0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/article><\/div><div><dl class=\"nx-rd-ids\"><div><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-STR-SR-01-2026-BL<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus material<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li>Strategic Systems Series<\/li><li>Public-safe edition<\/li><li data-hi=\"true\">\u25cc Draft in stewardship review<\/li><\/ul><ol class=\"nx-rd-stewards\"><li data-host=\"true\"><span class=\"nx-rd-key\">T<\/span><span><b>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/b><small>Publisher of record \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 US \/ Canada<\/small><\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-key\">M<\/span><span><b>The Global Risk Forum (GRF)<\/b><small>Public meaning \u00b7 legitimacy \u00b7 Switzerland<\/small><\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-key\">F<\/span><span><b>The Global Risk Alliance (GRA)<\/b><small>Capital meaning \u00b7 finance readiness \u00b7 United States<\/small><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><div class=\"nx-rd-reader\"><nav class=\"nx-rd-rail\" aria-label=\"Contents of this edition\" data-nr-tool=\"rail\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Contents<\/p><ol><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-about\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">00<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-surface\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">01<\/span><span>The edition on one page.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-glance\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">02<\/span><span>Six readings and the questions this edition\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-dashboard\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">03<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-findings\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">04<\/span><span>12 findings, grouped by system, never ranked.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-narrative\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">I<\/span><span>Crises are entangled, not stacked<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-coupling\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">II<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-profile\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">III<\/span><span>Each domain read in words, not scored.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-risks\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">IV<\/span><span>Risk objects, read across the chain.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-capability\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">V<\/span><span>Existence is not readiness.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-scenario\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">VI<\/span><span>Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-lenses\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">VII<\/span><span>One edition, read by each steward.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-host-reading\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">MC<\/span><span>Model card, Polycrisis System Model v0<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-agenda\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">VIII<\/span><span>The questions the operational series will\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-x-wat\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">T4.1<\/span><span>Common causes<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-x-ene\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">T4.2<\/span><span>Domino effects<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-x-foo\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">T4.3<\/span><span>Inter-systemic feedbacks<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-x-hlt\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">T4.4<\/span><span>Shared vulnerabilities<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-x-bio\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">T4.5<\/span><span>Thresholds and tipping<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-process\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">P<\/span><span>How this edition is made, released and\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-open-science\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">OS<\/span><span>This edition's open record.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-outputs\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">O<\/span><span>This edition in every format, with where it\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-pillars\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">PL<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-corrections\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">C<\/span><span>Versions and notices.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-references\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">R<\/span><span>48 sources this edition rests on.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-record\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">PR<\/span><span>Who publishes it, on which terms.<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ol><\/nav><div class=\"nx-rd-flow\"><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-about\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-about-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">00<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">About this edition<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-about-h\">What this edition is, and is not.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">The first annual edition of the polycrisis report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of entangled global risk, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 edition and every strategic report will be read.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-cols3\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">What this edition is<\/p><p>A question-led baseline: how crises in climate, food, energy, finance, health and conflict become entangled through common causes, domino effects and feedbacks. It reads the same global evidence as the global edition, through the mechanisms that connect it.<\/p><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">What it is not<\/p><p>Not a list of crises, a prediction of collapse, a ranking of threats or countries, or a policy recommendation. It states where the scientific community disagrees before stating what this edition concludes.<\/p><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">What comes next<\/p><p>National, regional and sector evidence binds each mechanism in 2027. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-surface\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-surface-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">01<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Abstract and decision surface<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-surface-h\">The edition on one page.<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-surface\"><div class=\"nx-rd-abstract\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Abstract<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-lede\">The world in 2026 faces crises that are entangled rather than additive. Researchers identify three causal mechanisms: common causes that stress several systems at once, domino effects that carry a shock from one system to the next, and feedbacks between systems that amplify both <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-24\" data-nr-ref=\"24\">[24]<\/a>. The 2026 evidence shows all three. Warming at 1.43 \u00b0C in 2025, after a record 1.55 \u00b0C in 2024, is a common cause across water, food, health and nature <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a>. Natural-disaster losses of US$224 billion in 2025, half of them uninsured, move through household balance sheets and public budgets <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a>, where 3.4 billion people already live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a>. About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-7\" data-nr-ref=\"7\">[7]<\/a> and 123.2 million were forcibly displaced <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-12\" data-nr-ref=\"12\">[12]<\/a>. Six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a>. This Baseline Edition maps the mechanisms, fixes the reference state, and sets the questions the 2027 edition will test. It forecasts no collapse and ranks no threat.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>systemic risk<\/li><li>polycrisis<\/li><li>WEFH+B nexus<\/li><li>global baseline 2026<\/li><li>compound hazards<\/li><li>protection gap<\/li><li>planetary boundaries<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-headline\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Headline finding<\/p><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-hf\">Insurers covered about 48% of the US$224 billion in natural-disaster losses in 2025, about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa.<\/p><figure class=\"nx-rd-fig\"><figcaption class=\"nx-rd-figcap\"><span class=\"nx-rd-figid\">Headline figure<\/span><span>Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)<\/span><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nx-rd-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 760 68\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Natural-disaster losses in 2025 (US$ billion)\"><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-l\" x=\"180\" y=\"25\" text-anchor=\"end\">Insured<\/text><rect class=\"nx-rd-svg-bar\" x=\"190\" y=\"10\" width=\"465.5\" height=\"20\" rx=\"2\"\/><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-v\" x=\"663.5\" y=\"25\">108<\/text><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-l\" x=\"180\" y=\"55\" text-anchor=\"end\">Uninsured<\/text><rect class=\"nx-rd-svg-bar\" x=\"190\" y=\"40\" width=\"500.0\" height=\"20\" rx=\"2\"\/><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-v\" x=\"698.0\" y=\"55\">116<\/text><\/svg><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Source: Munich Re NatCatSERVICE 2025 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a>; the uninsured share is the difference between overall and insured losses.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Implication<\/p><p>The protection gap is widest where exposure is growing fastest and fiscal space is thinnest. Uninsured losses become household debt, delayed reconstruction and pressure on public budgets, which feed back into vulnerability before the next event <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-18\" data-nr-ref=\"18\">[18]<\/a>.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-glance\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-glance-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">02<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">At a glance<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-glance-h\">Six readings and the questions this edition answers.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Six readings that frame the global baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-profile\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">8.2<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">billion<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">people, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-11\" data-nr-ref=\"11\">[11]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">1.55<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">\u00b0C<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">record year, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-41\" data-nr-ref=\"41\">[41]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">423.9<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">ppm<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">CO\u2082 concentration, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">57.1<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">Gt CO\u2082e<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">GHG emissions, 2023 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-3\" data-nr-ref=\"3\">[3]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">123.2<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">million<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">forcibly displaced, end-2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-12\" data-nr-ref=\"12\">[12]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">102<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">US$ tn<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">public debt, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><ol class=\"nx-rd-qa\"><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How warm is the world?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">1.43 \u00b0C above 1850\u20131900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 \u00b0C in 2024; 2023\u20132025 averaged 1.48 \u00b0C. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-40\" data-nr-ref=\"40\">[40]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Are disaster losses rising?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">Insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running; 2025 losses were driven by floods, storms and wildfires. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Who carries the losses?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">Half of 2025 losses were uninsured; in Asia almost nine-tenths were. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Are emissions falling?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">No: energy CO\u2082 set a record in 2024, although clean power supplied about 41% of electricity. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-4\" data-nr-ref=\"4\">[4]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-6\" data-nr-ref=\"6\">[6]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Is the food system stable?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">673 million people faced hunger in 2024; concurrent breadbasket failure is a rising tail risk. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-7\" data-nr-ref=\"7\">[7]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-23\" data-nr-ref=\"23\">[23]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How fast is nature changing?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">Wildlife populations fell by 73% on average from 1970 to 2020; six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-9\" data-nr-ref=\"9\">[9]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">What constrains the response?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">Debt service: 3.4 billion people live where interest outweighs health or education spending. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">What will 2027 test first?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">A concurrent breadbasket shortfall coinciding with an energy and fertiliser price shock. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\">SCN-SR01-BBF-01<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25ce<\/span>EXPERT INPUT<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-dashboard\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-dashboard-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">03<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Systems dashboard<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-dashboard-h\">Where each system stood at evidence close.<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-tiles\"><article class=\"nx-rd-tile\" data-sys=\"WAT\"><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">WAT<\/span>Water<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-m\">People without safely managed drinking water<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-v\"><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">2.2<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">billion<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-note\">3.5 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in the same year.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-foot\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span>2022<\/span><span>WHO\/UNICEF JMP <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-8\" data-nr-ref=\"8\">[8]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-tile\" data-sys=\"ENE\"><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">ENE<\/span>Energy<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-m\">Energy-related CO\u2082 emissions<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-v\"><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">37.8<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">Gt CO\u2082<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-note\">A record high, up 0.8% on 2023, as demand grew faster than clean supply.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-foot\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>IEA <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-4\" data-nr-ref=\"4\">[4]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-tile\" data-sys=\"FOO\"><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">FOO<\/span>Food<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-m\">People facing hunger<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-v\"><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">673<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">million<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-note\">About 8.2% of the world population; 2.3 billion were moderately or severely food insecure.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-foot\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>SOFI 2025 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-7\" data-nr-ref=\"7\">[7]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-tile\" data-sys=\"HLT\"><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">HLT<\/span>Health<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-m\">Deaths each year from ambient and household air pollution<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-v\"><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">6.7<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">million<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-note\">Air pollution couples energy, cities and health more directly than any other pathway.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-foot\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span>2019\u20132020<\/span><span>WHO <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-14\" data-nr-ref=\"14\">[14]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-tile\" data-sys=\"BIO\"><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">BIO<\/span>Biodiversity<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-m\">Average decline of monitored wildlife populations<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-v\"><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">\u221273<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-note\">1970\u20132020. 17.6% of land and 8.4% of the ocean are protected, against 30% by 2030.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-foot\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span>1970\u20132020<\/span><span>WWF <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-9\" data-nr-ref=\"9\">[9]<\/a> \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-10\" data-nr-ref=\"10\">[10]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-tile\" data-sys=\"SYS\"><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SYS<\/span>Cross-system<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-m\">Natural-disaster losses \u00b7 insured<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-v\"><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">224 \u00b7 108<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">US$ bn<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-note\">The sixth year above US$100 billion insured; floods, storms and fires dominated.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-foot\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>Munich Re <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-findings\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-findings-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">04<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Key findings<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-findings-h\">12 findings, grouped by system, never ranked.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Twelve findings carry the global baseline. They are grouped by system and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-ledger\" data-nr-tool=\"findings\"><div class=\"nx-rd-ledger-bar\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Filter findings\"><span class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Status<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-filter\" data-f=\"st\" data-v=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-filter\" data-f=\"st\" data-v=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25ce<\/span>EXPERT INPUT<\/span><\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">CLI<\/span>Climate forcing<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\" data-sys=\"CLI\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Global temperature was 1.43 \u00b1 0.13 \u00b0C above 1850\u20131900 in 2025, after a record 1.55 \u00b0C in 2024; 2015\u20132025 are the eleven warmest years. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010\" data-sys=\"CLI\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Six of nine planetary boundaries were assessed as transgressed in 2023, and five major tipping systems are at risk at current warming. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-21\" data-nr-ref=\"21\">[21]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">FIN<\/span>Finance<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002\" data-sys=\"FIN\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Natural disasters caused US$224 billion in losses in 2025, of which US$108 billion (48%) was insured. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003\" data-sys=\"FIN\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Insured shares differ sharply by region: about 70% in North America, about half in Europe, about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa (2025). <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011\" data-sys=\"FIN\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Public debt reached US$102 trillion in 2024; 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">ENE<\/span>Energy<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004\" data-sys=\"ENE\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Energy-related CO\u2082 emissions reached a record 37.8 Gt in 2024; total greenhouse-gas emissions were 57.1 Gt CO\u2082e in 2023. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-3\" data-nr-ref=\"3\">[3]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-4\" data-nr-ref=\"4\">[4]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005\" data-sys=\"ENE\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, with use projected to roughly double by 2030. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-5\" data-nr-ref=\"5\">[5]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">FOO<\/span>Food<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006\" data-sys=\"FOO\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024, and 2.3 billion were moderately or severely food insecure. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-7\" data-nr-ref=\"7\">[7]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">WAT<\/span>Water<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007\" data-sys=\"WAT\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">2.2 billion people lacked safely managed drinking water and 3.5 billion lacked safely managed sanitation in 2022. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-8\" data-nr-ref=\"8\">[8]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">HLT<\/span>Health<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008\" data-sys=\"HLT\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Ambient and household air pollution together cause about 6.7 million deaths a year. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-14\" data-nr-ref=\"14\">[14]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">BIO<\/span>Biodiversity<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009\" data-sys=\"BIO\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Monitored wildlife populations declined by 73% on average between 1970 and 2020; 17.6% of land and 8.4% of the ocean are protected. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-9\" data-nr-ref=\"9\">[9]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-10\" data-nr-ref=\"10\">[10]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SYS<\/span>Systemic<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\" data-sys=\"SYS\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25ce<\/span>EXPERT INPUT<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a concurrent breadbasket shortfall coinciding with an energy and fertiliser price shock. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\">\u00a7 scenario<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-narrative\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-narrative-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">I<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Part I \u00b7 lead chapter<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-narrative-h\">Crises are entangled, not stacked<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-prose\"><p class=\"nx-rd-dropcap\">Polycrisis is often used as a mood. This edition uses it as a model. Lawrence and co-authors define three mechanisms through which crises become entangled: common causes that stress several systems at once, domino effects that carry a shock from one system to the next, and inter-systemic feedbacks that amplify both <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-24\" data-nr-ref=\"24\">[24]<\/a>. Each can be observed, and each can be tested.<\/p><p>The forcing layer is moving fast. 2024 was the warmest year on record at 1.55 \u00b0C above the late nineteenth century, and 2025 the second or third warmest at 1.43 \u00b0C; the eleven years 2015\u20132025 are the eleven warmest observed. Earth\u2019s energy imbalance and ocean heat content reached record highs in 2025, which means the system is still gaining heat <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a>.<\/p><p>Losses follow, but unevenly. Natural disasters caused US$224 billion in losses in 2025, and insured losses exceeded US$100 billion for the sixth year running. No major hurricane struck the United States mainland; the total was driven by floods, severe storms and wildfires, led by the Los Angeles fires at about US$53 billion <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a>. Frequency, not one peak event, now sets the global loss record.<\/p><p>Who pays depends on where the hazard lands. Insurers covered about 70% of losses in North America but about 12% in Asia and under a fifth in Africa <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a>. Where cover is thin, losses fall on households and on public budgets that are already stretched: 3.4 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a>.<\/p><p>Beneath the losses, the core systems are already under strain. About 673 million people faced hunger in 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-7\" data-nr-ref=\"7\">[7]<\/a>, 2.2 billion lacked safely managed drinking water <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-8\" data-nr-ref=\"8\">[8]<\/a>, air pollution kills about 6.7 million people a year <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-14\" data-nr-ref=\"14\">[14]<\/a>, and monitored wildlife populations have fallen by 73% on average since 1970 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-9\" data-nr-ref=\"9\">[9]<\/a>. Each of these is coupled to the others through land, water and energy <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-16\" data-nr-ref=\"16\">[16]<\/a>.<\/p><p>New couplings are forming at the frontier. Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, and their use is projected to roughly double by 2030 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-5\" data-nr-ref=\"5\">[5]<\/a>. The minerals behind batteries, grids and chips are refined in very few places: the top three refining countries hold, on average, about 86% of supply for key energy minerals <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-36\" data-nr-ref=\"36\">[36]<\/a>. Technology risk is therefore also energy, water and supply-chain risk.<\/p><p>Capabilities have grown, but unevenly. 108 countries reported multi-hazard early-warning systems in 2024, more than twice as many as in 2015 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-35\" data-nr-ref=\"35\">[35]<\/a>, and just over half of the world\u2019s people are now covered by at least one social-protection benefit <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-44\" data-nr-ref=\"44\">[44]<\/a>. Adaptation finance, however, falls short of need by an estimated US$187\u2013359 billion a year <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-42\" data-nr-ref=\"42\">[42]<\/a>.<\/p><p>This edition therefore reads global risk as a property of couplings rather than a ranking of threats. The dependency matrix, the risk objects, the capability ladder and the compound scenario that follow all ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nx-rd-fig\"><figcaption class=\"nx-rd-figcap\"><span class=\"nx-rd-figid\">FIG. 1.3 \u00b7 FIG-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/span><span>Where did 2025\u2019s natural-disaster losses fall? Overall losses by region (US$ billion)<\/span><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nx-rd-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 760 128\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Where did 2025\u2019s natural-disaster losses fall? Overall losses by region (US$ billion)\"><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-l\" x=\"180\" y=\"25\" text-anchor=\"end\">North America<\/text><rect class=\"nx-rd-svg-bar\" x=\"190\" y=\"10\" width=\"500.0\" height=\"20\" rx=\"2\"\/><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-v\" x=\"698.0\" y=\"25\">133<\/text><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-l\" x=\"180\" y=\"55\" text-anchor=\"end\">Asia<\/text><rect class=\"nx-rd-svg-bar\" x=\"190\" y=\"40\" width=\"274.4\" height=\"20\" rx=\"2\"\/><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-v\" x=\"472.4\" y=\"55\">73<\/text><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-l\" x=\"180\" y=\"85\" text-anchor=\"end\">Europe<\/text><rect class=\"nx-rd-svg-bar\" x=\"190\" y=\"70\" width=\"41.4\" height=\"20\" rx=\"2\"\/><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-v\" x=\"239.4\" y=\"85\">11<\/text><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-l\" x=\"180\" y=\"115\" text-anchor=\"end\">Africa<\/text><rect class=\"nx-rd-svg-bar\" x=\"190\" y=\"100\" width=\"11.3\" height=\"20\" rx=\"2\"\/><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-v\" x=\"209.3\" y=\"115\">3<\/text><\/svg><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">North America, including Central America and the Caribbean, carried the largest losses, and about 70% of them were insured. Asia\u2019s losses were more than half as large, but only about US$9 billion was insured. Africa\u2019s recorded losses were small in money terms but almost entirely uninsured <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a>.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">93<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">US$ bn<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">insured in North America <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">9<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">US$ bn<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">insured in Asia <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">17,200<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">deaths<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">in natural disasters, 2025 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">166<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">US$ bn<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">from floods, storms and wildfires <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-coupling\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-coupling-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">II<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Dependency network<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-coupling-h\">Twenty couplings between five systems.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">The global matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited assessments and analogue events; they set the starting graph that federation evidence will test in 2027.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-coupling\" data-nr-tool=\"coupling\"><div class=\"nx-rd-coupling-stage\"><svg class=\"nx-rd-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 380 380\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: twenty typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><div class=\"nx-rd-detail\" aria-live=\"polite\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Select a system<\/p><p>Each line is one coupling, weighted by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-rd-matrix\"><caption class=\"nx-rd-lab\">From (row) to (column) \u00b7 \u25c6 ESTIMATED<\/caption><thead><tr><td><\/td><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">WAT <small>Water<\/small><\/th><td class=\"nx-rd-mx-self\" aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"WAT\" data-to=\"ENE\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">hydro \u00b7 thermal cooling<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"WAT\" data-to=\"FOO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"WAT\" data-to=\"HLT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">safe water \u00b7 sanitation<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"WAT\" data-to=\"BIO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">ENE <small>Energy<\/small><\/th><td data-w=\"MODERATE\" data-from=\"ENE\" data-to=\"WAT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">MODERATE<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">pumping \u00b7 desalination<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mx-self\" aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"ENE\" data-to=\"FOO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">fuel \u00b7 fertiliser \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"ENE\" data-to=\"HLT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">air pollution \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"MODERATE\" data-from=\"ENE\" data-to=\"BIO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">MODERATE<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">land use \u00b7 mining<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">FOO <small>Food<\/small><\/th><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"FOO\" data-to=\"WAT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">\u224870% of withdrawals<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"WEAK\" data-from=\"FOO\" data-to=\"ENE\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">WEAK<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">bioenergy feedstock<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mx-self\" aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"FOO\" data-to=\"HLT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"FOO\" data-to=\"BIO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">HLT <small>Health<\/small><\/th><td data-w=\"WEAK\" data-from=\"HLT\" data-to=\"WAT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">WEAK<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"WEAK\" data-from=\"HLT\" data-to=\"ENE\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">WEAK<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"MODERATE\" data-from=\"HLT\" data-to=\"FOO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">MODERATE<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">labour \u00b7 disease<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mx-self\" aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/td><td data-w=\"WEAK\" data-from=\"HLT\" data-to=\"BIO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">WEAK<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">BIO <small>Biodiversity<\/small><\/th><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"BIO\" data-to=\"WAT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"MODERATE\" data-from=\"BIO\" data-to=\"ENE\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">MODERATE<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">biomass \u00b7 hydrology<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"BIO\" data-to=\"FOO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">pollination \u00b7 soils<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"MODERATE\" data-from=\"BIO\" data-to=\"HLT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">MODERATE<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">zoonoses \u00b7 medicines<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mx-self\" aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Transmission paths<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-paths\"><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">CLI \u2192 FOO \u2192 TRD<\/span><span>heat and drought in several breadbaskets at once cut exports and raise prices<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span> 2010\u20132011 price spike<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/span><span>gas and fertiliser prices pass into food prices<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span> 2022 price shock<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 ENE<\/span><span>drought cuts hydro and cooling water for thermal plants<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span> 2022 European drought<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">BIO \u2192 HLT<\/span><span>land-use change raises zoonotic spillover risk<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span> IPBES nexus <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-16\" data-nr-ref=\"16\">[16]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">FIN \u2192 all<\/span><span>debt service crowds out adaptation and recovery<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span> post-2022 debt stress <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab nx-rd-mt\">Reinforcing loops \u00b7 both directions rated strong<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-paths\"><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">WAT \u21c4 FOO<\/span><span>Water to food: irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield. Food to water: \u224870% of withdrawals.<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"estimated\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25c6<\/span>ESTIMATED<\/span> in 4 of 10 drafted editions<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">WAT \u21c4 BIO<\/span><span>Water to biodiversity: flows \u00b7 wetlands. Biodiversity to water: regulation \u00b7 filtration.<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"estimated\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25c6<\/span>ESTIMATED<\/span> in 10 of 10 drafted editions<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">FOO \u21c4 BIO<\/span><span>Food to biodiversity: land conversion. Biodiversity to food: pollination \u00b7 soils.<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"estimated\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25c6<\/span>ESTIMATED<\/span> in 10 of 10 drafted editions<\/span><\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">A shock entering either system of a loop returns amplified through the other. A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-profile\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-profile-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">III<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Domain posture<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-profile-h\">Each domain read in words, not scored.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the global evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">2.2 billion people without safely managed drinking water; basin stress concentrated in arid and fast-growing regions.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">WAT \u2192 FOO irrigation \u00b7 WAT \u2192 ENE cooling<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Record energy CO\u2082 in 2024; clean power at about 41% of electricity; demand rising with cooling and compute.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">ENE \u2194 WAT \u00b7 ENE \u2192 FOO inputs<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">673 million people facing hunger; production concentrated in a few breadbaskets and exporters.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">FOO \u2190 WAT, ENE \u00b7 FOO \u2192 TRD<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Air pollution and heat are the leading environmental health burdens; One Health risks persist.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">HLT \u2190 CLI, ENE, BIO<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Wildlife populations down 73% since 1970; protection below 30% targets on land and sea.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">BIO \u2192 WAT, FOO \u00b7 BIO \u2190 land use<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">1.43 \u00b0C in 2025 after a record 1.55 \u00b0C; energy imbalance at a record high.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">forcing on all five systems<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">INF<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Chokepoints in shipping, power and data networks concentrate exposure.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">INF \u2192 TRD, ENE, FOO<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Insured losses above US$100 billion for six years; about half of losses uninsured; debt constrains response.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">FIN \u2190 CLI \u00b7 FIN \u2192 sovereigns<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Cloud, cable and satellite dependencies are concentrated and only partly mapped.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">DAT \u2192 ENE, FIN, HLT<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25ce<\/span>EXPERT INPUT<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024; use projected to roughly double by 2030.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">AIC \u2192 ENE, WAT, MIN<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Refining of key energy minerals concentrated: the top three refiners average about 86%.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">MIN \u2192 ENE transition, AIC<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Trade fragmentation and export restrictions raise transmission risk for food and minerals.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">TRD \u2192 all systems<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab nx-rd-mt\">Sector screens<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-p\">All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-00<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Cross-system<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">entangled crises; six of nine boundaries transgressed <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">compound and cascading shocks<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-01<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Water<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">2.2 billion without safely managed water <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-8\" data-nr-ref=\"8\">[8]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">drought and flood extremes<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-02<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Energy<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">record CO\u2082; about 41% clean power <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-4\" data-nr-ref=\"4\">[4]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-6\" data-nr-ref=\"6\">[6]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">heat demand; mineral concentration<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-03<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Food and agrifood<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">673 million facing hunger <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-7\" data-nr-ref=\"7\">[7]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">concurrent breadbasket failure<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-04<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Health<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">6.7 million air-pollution deaths a year <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-14\" data-nr-ref=\"14\">[14]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">heat, pandemics, antimicrobial resistance<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-05<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Finance and economy<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">US$102 trillion public debt <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">debt distress after disasters<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-06<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Development<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">123.2 million forcibly displaced <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-12\" data-nr-ref=\"12\">[12]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">conflict\u2013climate compounding<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-07<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Climate<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">1.43 \u00b0C in 2025 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">extremes and tipping risk<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-08<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Disaster<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">US$224 billion losses in 2025 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">frequency of medium events<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-09<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">chokepoint concentration<\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">shipping, power and cable outages<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-10<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Cities<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">most people now live in cities <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-11\" data-nr-ref=\"11\">[11]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">urban heat and flooding<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-11<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Biodiversity<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">\u221273% wildlife populations <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-9\" data-nr-ref=\"9\">[9]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">land-use change and fire<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-12<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Earth observation<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">strong global observing systems<\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">continuity of key missions<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-13<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Cyber and digital<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">concentrated cloud and network dependence<\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">systemic outages<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-14<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Policy and institutions<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">new pandemic and ocean agreements <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-27\" data-nr-ref=\"27\">[27]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-32\" data-nr-ref=\"32\">[32]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">implementation and finance gaps<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-15<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Science and engineering<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">deep research base; AI adoption rising <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-37\" data-nr-ref=\"37\">[37]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">translation and dual use<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">THIN<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-risks\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-risks-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">IV<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Risk portfolio<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-risks-h\">Risk objects, read across the chain.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Four global risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence; loss metrics are added only where they can be modelled.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-risks\"><article class=\"nx-rd-risk\"><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">RSK-SR01-FOO-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Concurrent breadbasket shortfall<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>heat and drought in several producing regions in one season<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>import-dependent countries; low-income households<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>concentrated exports; thin stocks; price-sensitive diets<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>trade openness; reserves; social protection<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 FOO \u2192 TRD \u2192 HLT<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>seasonal \u00b7 1 and 5 years<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-risk\"><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">RSK-SR01-FIN-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Uninsured losses where cover is thin<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>rising frequency of floods, storms and fires<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>Asia, Africa, small island states<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>low insurance; limited fiscal space <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a><\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>sovereign and parametric cover; development finance<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 FIN \u2192 households, sovereigns<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>annual<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-risk\"><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">RSK-SR01-MIN-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Concentration in critical-mineral refining<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>rising demand for transition and compute minerals<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>battery, grid and chip supply chains<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>top three refiners average about 86% <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-36\" data-nr-ref=\"36\">[36]<\/a><\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>stockpiles; recycling; diversification<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>MIN \u2192 ENE, AIC \u2192 FIN<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20135 years<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-risk\"><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">RSK-SR01-CLI-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Crossing of Earth-system tipping points<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>continued warming above 1.5 \u00b0C<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>coasts, coral reefs, monsoon and polar systems<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>irreversibility once thresholds are crossed<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>emission cuts; monitoring; adaptation<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 BIO, WAT \u2192 all<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>10 years and beyond<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/article><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-capability\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-capability-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">V<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Capability ladder<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-capability-h\">Existence is not readiness.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><ol class=\"nx-rd-ladder\"><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Prevention and mitigation<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">Paris and Sendai frameworks; emissions still rising <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-3\" data-nr-ref=\"3\">[3]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-29\" data-nr-ref=\"29\">[29]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-31\" data-nr-ref=\"31\">[31]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"3\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Monitoring and observation<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">DEMONSTRATED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">global observing systems underpin WMO and C3S records <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-39\" data-nr-ref=\"39\">[39]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Early warning<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">108 countries reported multi-hazard early-warning systems in 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-35\" data-nr-ref=\"35\">[35]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Preparedness and planning<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">national adaptation plans uneven; adaptation finance gap of US$187\u2013359 billion a year <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-42\" data-nr-ref=\"42\">[42]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"1\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Redundancy and reserves<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">LISTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">no coordinated global food or mineral reserve<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"3\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Response<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">DEMONSTRATED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">international humanitarian response in real events; chronically underfunded<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Continuity of critical services<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">sector-level plans; limited cross-border testing<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Recovery<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">development finance and debt relief instruments<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Adaptation<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">plans widespread; finance below need <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-42\" data-nr-ref=\"42\">[42]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Social protection<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">52.4% of people covered by at least one benefit <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-44\" data-nr-ref=\"44\">[44]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Finance and insurance<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">deep markets in some regions; about half of losses uninsured <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Institutional coordination<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">new pandemic agreement and IHR amendments <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-27\" data-nr-ref=\"27\">[27]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-28\" data-nr-ref=\"28\">[28]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Technical infrastructure<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">global networks concentrated in few chokepoints<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"1\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Workforce<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">LISTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">health and emergency workforce shortages widely reported<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"0\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Research capacity<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">ADEQUATE<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">IPCC and IPBES assessments; translation uneven <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-15\" data-nr-ref=\"15\">[15]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-16\" data-nr-ref=\"16\">[16]<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Ladder: LISTED, EXISTS, DEMONSTRATED, TESTED. A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-scenario\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-scenario-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">VI<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Scenario \u00b7 SCN-SR01-BBF-01<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-scenario-h\">Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Assumptions<\/p><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>heat and drought across two or more major grain-exporting regions in one season, while gas and fertiliser prices spike<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>2007\u20132008 and 2010\u20132011 food price spikes; 2022 energy and fertiliser shock<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-23\" data-nr-ref=\"23\">[23]<\/a><\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Cascade, step by step<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-steps\"><li><span class=\"nx-rd-step-n\">1<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">CLI \u2192 FOO<\/span><span>heat and drought cut yields in several exporters at once<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">2010 \u00b7 2012<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-step-n\">2<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/span><span>fertiliser and fuel costs raise production costs<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">2022<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-step-n\">3<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">FOO \u2192 TRD<\/span><span>export restrictions amplify the price rise<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">2008 \u00b7 2011<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-step-n\">4<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">TRD \u2192 HLT<\/span><span>food-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">2008<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-step-n\">5<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">FIN \u2192 sovereigns<\/span><span>import bills and subsidies widen deficits<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">2022<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-step-n\">6<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">HLT \u2192 development<\/span><span>hunger and displacement rise in fragile settings<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">2011<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-mt\"><figure class=\"nx-lp\" data-ra-lesson=\"nr-scen-sr-01\" data-lp-json=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;nr-scen-sr-01&quot;,&quot;constants&quot;:{},&quot;params&quot;:[],&quot;outputs&quot;:[],&quot;steps&quot;:[{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Climate to food&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Heat and drought cut yields in several exporters at once. Analogue or source: 2010 \u00b7 2012.&quot;,&quot;cite&quot;:&quot;Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 1&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;n0&quot;,&quot;n1&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;n0&quot;,&quot;n1&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Energy to food&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Fertiliser and fuel costs raise production costs. Analogue or source: 2022.&quot;,&quot;cite&quot;:&quot;Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 2&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;n2&quot;,&quot;n1&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;n2&quot;,&quot;n1&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Food to trade&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Export restrictions amplify the price rise. Analogue or source: 2008 \u00b7 2011.&quot;,&quot;cite&quot;:&quot;Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 3&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;n1&quot;,&quot;n3&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;n1&quot;,&quot;n3&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Trade to health&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Food-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households. Analogue or source: 2008.&quot;,&quot;cite&quot;:&quot;Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 4&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;n3&quot;,&quot;n4&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;n3&quot;,&quot;n4&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Finance to sovereigns&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Import bills and subsidies widen deficits. Analogue or source: 2022.&quot;,&quot;cite&quot;:&quot;Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 5&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;n5&quot;,&quot;n6&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;n5&quot;,&quot;n6&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Health to development&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Hunger and displacement rise in fragile settings. Analogue or source: 2011.&quot;,&quot;cite&quot;:&quot;Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 6&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;n4&quot;,&quot;n7&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;n4&quot;,&quot;n7&quot;]]}],&quot;stepMs&quot;:3200,&quot;chart&quot;:null}\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Lesson: Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock\"><div class=\"nx-lp-head\"><h3 class=\"nx-lp-title\">Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock<\/h3><p class=\"nx-lp-claim\">How the shock in scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01 would travel through Global Polycrisis's coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-lp-canvas\"><svg class=\"nx-figure nx-ui nx-dag nx-lp-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 1274 266\" data-ra-lesson-canvas=\"true\" data-w=\"1274\" data-h=\"266\" data-wb=\"xl\" role=\"img\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-lp-nr-scen-sr-01-t nx-lp-nr-scen-sr-01-d\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><title id=\"nx-lp-nr-scen-sr-01-t\">Concurrent breadbasket shortfall and energy price shock<\/title><desc id=\"nx-lp-nr-scen-sr-01-d\">How the shock in scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01 would travel through Global Polycrisis's coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/desc><\/svg><\/div><div class=\"nx-lp-bar\" role=\"toolbar\" aria-label=\"Lesson transport\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn nx-lp-play\" data-lp-act=\"play\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-label=\"Play\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M2 1.5v9l8-4.5z\"\/><\/svg><svg viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M2 1.5h3v9H2zm5 0h3v9H7z\"\/><\/svg><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn\" data-lp-act=\"prev\" aria-label=\"Previous step\">&#8249;<\/button><span class=\"nx-lp-scrub-slot\" data-lp-scrub-slot=\"5\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"nx-lp-scrub-fill\" data-lp-fill=\"true\"><\/span><\/span><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn\" data-lp-act=\"next\" aria-label=\"Next step\">&#8250;<\/button><span class=\"nx-lp-counter\" data-lp-counter=\"true\">1 \/ 6<\/span><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn nx-lp-speed\" data-lp-act=\"speed\" aria-label=\"Speed 1x\">1x<\/button><\/div><p class=\"nx-lp-narr\"><span data-lp-narr=\"true\">Heat and drought cut yields in several exporters at once. Analogue or source: 2010 \u00b7 2012.<\/span> <cite class=\"nx-lp-cite\" data-lp-cite=\"true\">Edition SR-01, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01, step 1<\/cite><\/p><ol class=\"nx-lp-steps\" aria-label=\"Steps\"><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"0\" aria-current=\"step\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">1<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Climate to food<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"1\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">2<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Energy to food<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"2\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">3<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Food to trade<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"3\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">4<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Trade to health<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"4\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">5<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Finance to sovereigns<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"5\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">6<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Health to development<\/span><\/button><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nx-lp-io\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-lp-cap\"><p class=\"nx-lp-shows\">The cascade of scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01 as a playable chain of couplings, one step at a time.<\/p><p class=\"nx-lp-honesty\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition's stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning.<\/p><\/figcaption><p class=\"nx-lp-src\"><span>Sources: <\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/#nx-nr-sr-01-scenario\" rel=\"noopener\">Global Polycrisis 2026, scenario SCN-SR01-BBF-01<\/a> (2026); Global Polycrisis 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-lenses\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-lenses-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">VII<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Three lenses<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-lenses-h\">One edition, read by each steward.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">The global baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-lenses\"><article class=\"nx-rd-lens\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports an entangled reading of global risk. Warming and losses set records in the same years; frequency, not one peak event, drives losses; and the five core systems share dependence on water, energy and land. Evidence is strongest for climate and losses, and weakest for digital dependencies and tipping proximity.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-lens-c\">CLI-001 \u00b7 FIN-002 \u00b7 CLI-010 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-lens\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people global risk arrives as a price rise, a heat wave or a flood, and its burden depends on where they live. The baseline asks that public debate weigh the couplings and the distribution of losses, not a list of separate threats.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-lens-c\">FIN-003 \u00b7 FOO-006 \u00b7 HLT-008<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-lens\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. About half of disaster losses are uninsured, debt service crowds out adaptation, and climate disclosure standards are spreading <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-33\" data-nr-ref=\"33\">[33]<\/a>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-lens-c\">FIN-002 \u00b7 FIN-003 \u00b7 FIN-011<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-lens\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Nexus Synthesis<\/h3><p>The world\u2019s crises share causes and channels. The 2027 programme should test the mechanisms rather than list the crises: bind the common causes, trace the dominoes through fiscal and food channels, and measure the feedbacks that make recovery slower than the next shock.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-lens-c\">SYS-012 \u00b7 P-01 \u00b7 P-02<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-host-reading\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-host-reading-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">MC<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation reading<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-host-reading-h\">Model card, Polycrisis System Model v0<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-SR01-POLYCRISIS \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent the world as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of systems<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for country, regional or asset-level use<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">20<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">couplings<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">typed in v0<\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">11<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">strong<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">documented within one season<\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">5<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">moderate<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">documented, buffered<\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">4<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">weak<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">plausible, undocumented<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the entangled reading of global risk.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-agenda\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-agenda-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">VIII<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">2027 agenda<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-agenda-h\">The questions the operational series will answer.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 polycrisis agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 polycrisis edition.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><ol class=\"nx-rd-agenda\"><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">P-01<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How likely is a simultaneous shortfall across major breadbaskets at 1.5\u20132 \u00b0C, and which import-dependent countries are most exposed?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">INI-SR01-FOO-01 \u00b7 breadbasket concurrency \u00b7 first output: concurrency model and exposure register<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">P-02<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Where does the uninsured share of disaster losses land, by region, peril and income group?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">INI-SR01-FIN-02 \u00b7 global protection-gap atlas \u00b7 first output: region-by-peril loss table, 2015\u20132025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">P-03<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How do AI compute demand, power systems, water and critical-mineral refining constrain one another?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">INI-SR01-TEC-03 \u00b7 compute\u2013power\u2013minerals nexus \u00b7 first output: demand and concentration map<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">P-04<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Which tipping systems are closest, and which indicators would give early warning?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">INI-SR01-CLI-04 \u00b7 tipping indicators register \u00b7 first output: indicator register with evidence grades<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">P-05<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How does debt service constrain adaptation and recovery where hazard is highest?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">INI-SR01-FIN-05 \u00b7 debt\u2013adaptation constraint \u00b7 first output: exposure\u2013fiscal space matrix<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">P-06<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How do heat and water stress couple through health, labour and food in the tropics?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">INI-SR01-HLT-06 \u00b7 heat\u2013water\u2013labour \u00b7 first output: regional heat\u2013work exposure layer<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">P-07<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Where do early-warning gaps coincide with high hazard and thin insurance?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">to be admitted in 2027 \u00b7 first output: gap overlay with WMO and UNDRR data<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">P-08<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How do conflict, displacement and climate hazards compound in fragile settings?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">to be admitted in 2027 \u00b7 first output: scoping note<\/p><\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-rd-lab nx-rd-mt\">Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-p\">Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 global portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">INI-SR01-FOO-01<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Breadbasket concurrency model<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Initiative<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">P-01<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">INI-SR01-FIN-02<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Global protection-gap atlas<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Initiative<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">P-02<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">INI-SR01-TEC-03<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Compute\u2013power\u2013minerals nexus<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Initiative<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">P-03<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">INI-SR01-CLI-04<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Tipping indicators register<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Initiative<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">P-04<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">INI-SR01-FIN-05<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Debt\u2013adaptation constraint<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Initiative<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">P-05<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">INI-SR01-HLT-06<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Heat\u2013water\u2013labour exposure<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Initiative<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">P-06<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">MSN-SR01-2027-01<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Breadbasket\u2013energy compound Universe mission<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Mission<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">P-01<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">CANDIDATE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab nx-rd-mt\">The pathway<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-p\">The global edition is the top of the Nexus federation. It does not collect its own evidence. It reads national, regional and sector editions through one governed evidence graph, so a correction made anywhere travels everywhere. At baseline the federation is designed and its first edition is issued.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-chain\"><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">National Foundries<\/p><p>continuous national evidence environments<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">PREPARED \u00b7 first sealed cuts in Q1 2027<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">National Models and Portfolios<\/p><p>each country as a system of systems<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">CANADA v0 ISSUED \u00b7 25 further national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">Quarterly national reports<\/p><p>State &amp; Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">BASELINE STAGE \u00b7 Q1 2027 opens the series<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">Regional aggregation<\/p><p>ten regional clusters<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">10 PLANNED \u00b7 regional baselines in 2026\u20132027<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">Global sector and strategic models<\/p><p>GS-01\u202615 \u00b7 SR-01\u202614 \u00b7 XT-01\u202620<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">49 PLANNED \u00b7 pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">Nexus Universe<\/p><p>annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 global mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">Global Nexus Report<\/p><p>this series<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">BASELINE ISSUED \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p>one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">OPEN \u00b7 first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-wat\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-wat-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">T4.1<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">System chapter<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-wat-h\">Common causes<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">A common cause stresses several systems at once. Warming is the clearest: one forcing that loads water, food, health and nature in the same years <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-24\" data-nr-ref=\"24\">[24]<\/a>.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">1.43<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">\u00b0C<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">warming in 2025 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">6 of 9<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">boundaries<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">transgressed <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">US$102<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">trillion<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">public debt, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence at baseline<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Warming<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">1.43 \u00b0C in 2025 after a record 1.55 \u00b0C; stress on all five core systems<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-41\" data-nr-ref=\"41\">[41]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Energy prices<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">one price shock passes into food, fertiliser and household budgets<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-4\" data-nr-ref=\"4\">[4]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Land-use change<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">drives biodiversity loss, emissions and zoonotic risk together<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-16\" data-nr-ref=\"16\">[16]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-17\" data-nr-ref=\"17\">[17]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Interest rates<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">a rise tightens every indebted budget at once<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>Warming loads water, food, health and nature together<\/li><li>One energy shock reaches food, fertiliser and budgets<\/li><li>Interest-rate rises tighten every indebted budget<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>Attribution of joint stress to each common cause<\/li><li>Timing of common shocks across regions<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Global temperature and ENSO; energy and fertiliser prices; global interest rates.<\/p><\/aside><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>GLB Global Systems<\/li><li>GS-01 Water<\/li><li>GS-03 Food<\/li><li>GS-05 Finance<\/li><li>SR-05 Fiscal resilience<\/li><li>SR-09 Planetary boundaries<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">boundary<\/p><p>Mechanism chapters describe how crises connect. They predict no event, rank no threat and assess no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-ene\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-ene-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">T4.2<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">System chapter<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-ene-h\">Domino effects<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">A domino effect carries a shock from one system to the next. Food and finance are the main channels at baseline.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">673<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">million<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">facing hunger, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-7\" data-nr-ref=\"7\">[7]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">123.2<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">million<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">forcibly displaced, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-12\" data-nr-ref=\"12\">[12]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">116<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">US$ bn<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">uninsured disaster losses, 2025 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence at baseline<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Drought \u2192 food \u2192 prices<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">breadbasket shortfalls transmitted through trade<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-23\" data-nr-ref=\"23\">[23]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Disaster \u2192 budgets<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">uninsured losses become public and household debt<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Prices \u2192 hunger<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">food-price rises cut diets in import-dependent households<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-7\" data-nr-ref=\"7\">[7]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Conflict \u2192 displacement<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">123.2 million forcibly displaced at the end of 2024<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-12\" data-nr-ref=\"12\">[12]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>Breadbasket shortfall \u2192 prices \u2192 hunger<\/li><li>Disaster \u2192 uninsured losses \u2192 public debt<\/li><li>Conflict \u2192 displacement \u2192 host-country strain<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>Speed of price transmission to households<\/li><li>Fiscal cost of disasters by country group<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Food-price indices, export restrictions and displacement flows after major shocks.<\/p><\/aside><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>GLB Global Systems<\/li><li>GS-01 Water<\/li><li>GS-03 Food<\/li><li>GS-05 Finance<\/li><li>SR-05 Fiscal resilience<\/li><li>SR-09 Planetary boundaries<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">boundary<\/p><p>Mechanism chapters describe how crises connect. They predict no event, rank no threat and assess no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-foo\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-foo-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">T4.3<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">System chapter<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-foo-h\">Inter-systemic feedbacks<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Feedbacks make crises reinforce each other: debt slows recovery, slow recovery deepens vulnerability, and vulnerability raises the cost of the next shock.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">3.4<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">billion<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">where interest exceeds health or education <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">US$187\u2013359<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">bn a year<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">adaptation finance gap <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-42\" data-nr-ref=\"42\">[42]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">+167<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">heat deaths of over-65s vs 1990s <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-26\" data-nr-ref=\"26\">[26]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence at baseline<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Debt\u2013disaster loop<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">interest costs crowd out adaptation, raising future losses<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-42\" data-nr-ref=\"42\">[42]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Hunger\u2013conflict loop<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">food insecurity and conflict reinforce each other<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-7\" data-nr-ref=\"7\">[7]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-12\" data-nr-ref=\"12\">[12]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Nature\u2013climate loop<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">ecosystem loss weakens carbon and water regulation<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-16\" data-nr-ref=\"16\">[16]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Heat\u2013health\u2013labour loop<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">heat cuts work capacity and income<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-26\" data-nr-ref=\"26\">[26]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>Debt slows recovery; slow recovery raises the next loss<\/li><li>Hunger and conflict reinforce each other<\/li><li>Nature loss weakens climate and water regulation<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>Recovery times after major disasters<\/li><li>Strength of the debt\u2013disaster loop by region<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Debt-service ratios in high-exposure countries and recovery times after major disasters.<\/p><\/aside><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>GLB Global Systems<\/li><li>GS-01 Water<\/li><li>GS-03 Food<\/li><li>GS-05 Finance<\/li><li>SR-05 Fiscal resilience<\/li><li>SR-09 Planetary boundaries<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">boundary<\/p><p>Mechanism chapters describe how crises connect. They predict no event, rank no threat and assess no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-hlt\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-hlt-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">T4.4<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">System chapter<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-hlt-h\">Shared vulnerabilities<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Entanglement is worst where buffers are thinnest. Fiscal space, insurance cover and social protection decide whether a shock stays contained.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">48<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">of 2025 disaster losses insured <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">52.4<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">covered by social protection <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-44\" data-nr-ref=\"44\">[44]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">108<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">countries<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">with multi-hazard early warning <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-35\" data-nr-ref=\"35\">[35]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence at baseline<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Fiscal space<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">3.4 billion people where interest exceeds health or education spending<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Insurance<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">about half of 2025 losses uninsured; about 12% insured in Asia<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Social protection<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">52.4% of people covered by at least one benefit<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-44\" data-nr-ref=\"44\">[44]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Early warning<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">108 countries with multi-hazard systems in 2024<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-35\" data-nr-ref=\"35\">[35]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>Thin buffers turn shocks into crises<\/li><li>Where insurance, protection and warning are all thin, losses compound<\/li><li>Buffers bought before the shock cost least<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>Overlap of hazard, debt and thin cover<\/li><li>Tested performance of buffers in real events<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Coverage of insurance, social protection and early warning where hazard and debt are both high.<\/p><\/aside><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>GLB Global Systems<\/li><li>GS-01 Water<\/li><li>GS-03 Food<\/li><li>GS-05 Finance<\/li><li>SR-05 Fiscal resilience<\/li><li>SR-09 Planetary boundaries<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">boundary<\/p><p>Mechanism chapters describe how crises connect. They predict no event, rank no threat and assess no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-bio\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-bio-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">T4.5<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">System chapter<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-x-bio-h\">Thresholds and tipping<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Some couplings change character past a threshold. Planetary boundaries and tipping systems mark where gradual stress can become abrupt change.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">6 of 9<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">boundaries<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">transgressed, 2023 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">5<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">systems<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">tipping at risk at current warming <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-21\" data-nr-ref=\"21\">[21]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">record<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">2025<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">Earth energy imbalance <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence at baseline<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instance<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Mechanism in action<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Planetary boundaries<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">six of nine assessed as transgressed in 2023<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Tipping systems<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">five major systems at risk at current warming<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-21\" data-nr-ref=\"21\">[21]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Safe and just limits<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">boundaries defined for people as well as the planet<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-47\" data-nr-ref=\"47\">[47]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Instance\">Energy imbalance<\/td><td data-label=\"Mechanism in action\">record high in 2025; the system is still gaining heat<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Pathways in this mechanism<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>Gradual stress can become abrupt change<\/li><li>Some tipping systems interact and may cascade<\/li><li>Thresholds shrink the time available to respond<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>Early-warning indicators for each tipping system<\/li><li>Interactions between tipping systems<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Early-warning indicators for tipping systems and updates to the planetary-boundary assessment.<\/p><\/aside><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>GLB Global Systems<\/li><li>GS-01 Water<\/li><li>GS-03 Food<\/li><li>GS-05 Finance<\/li><li>SR-05 Fiscal resilience<\/li><li>SR-09 Planetary boundaries<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">boundary<\/p><p>Mechanism chapters describe how crises connect. They predict no event, rank no threat and assess no government.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-process\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-process-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">P<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Process<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-process-h\">How this edition is made, released and corrected.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Press play to run the release step by step in the five pillar lanes; select a step to read it.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><figure class=\"nx-lp\" data-ra-lesson=\"nr-release-gcri\" data-lp-json=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;nr-release-gcri&quot;,&quot;constants&quot;:{},&quot;params&quot;:[],&quot;outputs&quot;:[],&quot;steps&quot;:[{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Evidence arrives from the pillars&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Nexus Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Nexus Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site's.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;obs&quot;,&quot;aar&quot;,&quot;con&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The cut is sealed&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;cut&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;obs&quot;,&quot;cut&quot;],[&quot;aar&quot;,&quot;cut&quot;],[&quot;con&quot;,&quot;cut&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The edition is assembled&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;asm&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;cut&quot;,&quot;asm&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The keys turn&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;key&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;asm&quot;,&quot;key&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The gate opens&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;gate&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;key&quot;,&quot;gate&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Signed and deposited&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;zen&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;gate&quot;,&quot;zen&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Published on five sites&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Only then do the five Nexus Reports sites show the edition as published, each reading it through its own lens.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;web&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;zen&quot;,&quot;web&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Corrections go to Standards&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;fb&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;web&quot;,&quot;fb&quot;]]}],&quot;stepMs&quot;:3000,&quot;chart&quot;:null}\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Lesson: How one quarterly edition reaches the open record\"><div class=\"nx-lp-head\"><h3 class=\"nx-lp-title\">How one quarterly edition reaches the open record<\/h3><p class=\"nx-lp-claim\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-lp-canvas\"><svg class=\"nx-figure nx-ui nx-dag nx-lp-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 1610 406\" data-ra-lesson-canvas=\"true\" data-w=\"1610\" data-h=\"406\" data-wb=\"xl\" role=\"img\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-lp-nr-release-gcri-t nx-lp-nr-release-gcri-d\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><title id=\"nx-lp-nr-release-gcri-t\">How one quarterly edition reaches the open record<\/title><desc id=\"nx-lp-nr-release-gcri-d\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/desc><\/svg><\/div><div class=\"nx-lp-bar\" role=\"toolbar\" aria-label=\"Lesson transport\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn nx-lp-play\" data-lp-act=\"play\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-label=\"Play\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M2 1.5v9l8-4.5z\"\/><\/svg><svg viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M2 1.5h3v9H2zm5 0h3v9H7z\"\/><\/svg><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn\" data-lp-act=\"prev\" aria-label=\"Previous step\">&#8249;<\/button><span class=\"nx-lp-scrub-slot\" data-lp-scrub-slot=\"7\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"nx-lp-scrub-fill\" data-lp-fill=\"true\"><\/span><\/span><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn\" data-lp-act=\"next\" aria-label=\"Next step\">&#8250;<\/button><span class=\"nx-lp-counter\" data-lp-counter=\"true\">1 \/ 8<\/span><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn nx-lp-speed\" data-lp-act=\"speed\" aria-label=\"Speed 1x\">1x<\/button><\/div><p class=\"nx-lp-narr\"><span data-lp-narr=\"true\">Nexus Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Nexus Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site's.<\/span> <cite class=\"nx-lp-cite\" data-lp-cite=\"true\" hidden><\/cite><\/p><ol class=\"nx-lp-steps\" aria-label=\"Steps\"><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"0\" aria-current=\"step\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">1<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"1\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">2<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">The cut is sealed<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"2\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">3<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">The edition is assembled<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"3\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">4<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">The keys turn<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"4\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">5<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">The gate opens<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"5\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">6<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Signed and deposited<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"6\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">7<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Published on five sites<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"7\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">8<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Corrections go to Standards<\/span><\/button><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nx-lp-io\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-lp-cap\"><p class=\"nx-lp-shows\">The quarterly release in the five pillar lanes: what Foundry and Universe hand to Reports, what Reports seals, reviews, signs, deposits and publishes, and what returns to Standards.<\/p><p class=\"nx-lp-honesty\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record.<\/p><\/figcaption><p class=\"nx-lp-src\"><span>Sources: <\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Nexus Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Nexus Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">How a contribution reaches this edition, step by step, is on the contribute page and the front page of this site. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/\">Contribute <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-open-science\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-open-science-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">OS<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Open science<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-open-science-h\">This edition's open record.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Identifiers, licences and the bundle at deposit; credit by ORCID, ROR and CRediT; the open indexes; and a deposit prefilled for a contribution to this edition.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition's open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-STR-SR-01-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for Nexus material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Global Polycrisis; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Polycrisis\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Polycrisis&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Polycrisis\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Polycrisis\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Polycrisis\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Global Polycrisis, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Global Polycrisis for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Global Polycrisis 2026.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Global Polycrisis&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-01&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexus-reports-gcri&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Global Polycrisis&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Nexus Strategic Systems Report \u00b7 SR-01&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-outputs\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-outputs-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">O<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Outputs<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-outputs-h\">This edition in every format, with where it came from.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">What is on this site now, what ships with the signed bundle at release, and what is not recorded for this edition; then the chain the outputs come from and how to cite each one.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-state=\"here\"><th scope=\"row\">Web edition<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">HTML<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/\">Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/a><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><\/tr><tr data-state=\"release\"><th scope=\"row\">Print edition<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">PDF<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><\/tr><tr data-state=\"here\"><th scope=\"row\">Indicator data<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/#nx-nr-sr-01-outputs\">19 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/a><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/td><\/tr><tr data-state=\"here\"><th scope=\"row\">Figures<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/sr-01\/#nx-nr-sr-01-surface\">4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/a><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\">FIG-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/td><\/tr><tr data-state=\"none\"><th scope=\"row\">Slides<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">PDF<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr data-state=\"none\"><th scope=\"row\">Evidence brief<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr data-state=\"release\"><th scope=\"row\">Dataset with DOI<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">DataCite<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two nx-rd-mt\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Provenance<\/p><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>data\/editions\/SR-01.json, the content pack the print and web editions are built from<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Nexus Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Cite it<\/p><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>NR-CIT-1<\/dt><dd>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Strategic Systems Report 2026, Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk, Baseline Edition. Nexus Reports series \u00b7 Strategic Systems Series SR-01 \u00b7 Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 v1.0.0 \u00b7 GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 \u00b7 NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 \u00b7 DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Short citation<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Polycrisis Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>A finding<\/dt><dd>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Polycrisis Report 2026, Baseline Edition, finding NRF-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002, v1.0.0.<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>A figure<\/dt><dd>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Polycrisis Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>A data table<\/dt><dd>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Polycrisis baseline indicator set 2026, NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab nx-rd-mt\">Indicator data<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><caption class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Global baseline indicator set<\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Global mean temperature above 1850\u20131900<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">1.43<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">\u00b0C<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2025<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[1]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Record year temperature<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">1.55<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">\u00b0C<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[41]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Three-year average temperature<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">1.48<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">\u00b0C<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2023\u20132025<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[40]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">CO\u2082 concentration<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">423.9<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">ppm<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[1]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Total GHG emissions<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">57.1<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">Gt CO\u2082e<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2023<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[3]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Energy-related CO\u2082<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">37.8<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">Gt CO\u2082<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[4]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Data-centre electricity use<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">\u2248415<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">TWh<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[5]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Natural-disaster losses<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">224<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">US$ billion<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2025<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[2]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Insured disaster losses<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">108<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">US$ billion<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2025<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[2]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Disaster deaths<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">17,200<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">deaths<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2025<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[2]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">People facing hunger<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">673<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">million<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[7]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Without safely managed water<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">2.2<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">billion<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2022<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[8]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Air-pollution deaths<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">6.7<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">million a year<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2019\u20132020<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[14]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Wildlife population change<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">\u221273<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">%<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">1970\u20132020<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[9]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Protected land \u00b7 ocean<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">17.6 \u00b7 8.4<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">%<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[10]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Population<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">8.2<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">billion<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[11]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Forcibly displaced<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">123.2<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">million<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[12]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Public debt<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">102<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">US$ trillion<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[13]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Covered by social protection<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">52.4<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">%<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2023<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[44]<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-pillars\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-pillars-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">PL<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Six pillars<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-pillars-h\">Where this edition sits among the six pillars.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Nexus Foundry seals the evidence and Nexus Universe tests it; Nexus Reports publishes it; Nexus Standards takes its corrections and Risk Academy teaches from it.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-pl-lanes\"><figure class=\"nx-pl-figure\"><svg class=\"nx-figure nx-ui nx-pl-lanes-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 1200 616\" role=\"img\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-pl-sr-01-t nx-nr-pl-sr-01-d\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><title id=\"nx-nr-pl-sr-01-t\">Global Polycrisis 2026 among the six pillars<\/title><desc id=\"nx-nr-pl-sr-01-d\">F03 Sealed observations and indicator series: Foundry; F04 After-action and scenario findings for: Universe; F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter: Foundry; Applied in editions: Standards; SR-01 edition: Reports; F06 Method and correction findings as change: Standards; F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year: Universe; Taught in the open: Academy<\/desc><\/svg><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-01 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><ol class=\"nx-pl-steps\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>SR-01 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Global Polycrisis 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Nexus Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Nexus Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nexus Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Nexus Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Universe to Nexus Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Nexus Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Reports to Nexus Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-corrections\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-corrections-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">C<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Corrections log<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-corrections-h\">Versions and notices.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition's current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SR-01<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-references\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-references-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">R<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">References \u00b7 NR-CIT-1<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-references-h\">48 sources this edition rests on.<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><ol class=\"nx-rd-reflist\"><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-1\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[1]<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, WMO-No. 1391. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva, March 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[2]<\/span><span>Munich Re (ed.), Natural disasters in 2025: NatCatSERVICE full-year figures. Munich Re, Munich, January 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-3\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[3]<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2024: No more hot air \u2026 please! UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-4\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[4]<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-5\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[5]<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-6\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[6]<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-7\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[7]<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-8\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[8]<\/span><span>WHO and UNICEF (eds.), Progress on Household Drinking Water, Sanitation and Hygiene 2000\u20132022. Joint Monitoring Programme, New York and Geneva, 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-9\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[9]<\/span><span>WWF (ed.), Living Planet Report 2024: A System in Peril. WWF, Gland, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-10\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[10]<\/span><span>UNEP-WCMC and IUCN (eds.), Protected Planet Report 2024. UNEP-WCMC and IUCN, Cambridge and Gland, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-11\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[11]<\/span><span>UN DESA Population Division (ed.), World Population Prospects 2024: Summary of Results. United Nations, New York, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-12\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[12]<\/span><span>UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2024. UNHCR, Copenhagen, June 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-13\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[13]<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2025: It Is Time for Reform. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-14\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[14]<\/span><span>World Health Organization (ed.), \u201cAmbient (outdoor) air pollution\u201d and \u201cHousehold air pollution\u201d fact sheets. WHO, Geneva, retrieved 2026-09-30.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-15\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[15]<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-16\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[16]<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-17\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[17]<\/span><span>K. O\u2019Brien, L. Garibaldi and A. Agrawal (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Underlying Causes of Biodiversity Loss and the Determinants of Transformative Change. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-18\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[18]<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-19\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[19]<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-20\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[20]<\/span><span>K. Richardson, W. Steffen, W. Lucht et al., \u201cEarth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries,\u201d Science Advances, vol. 9, eadh2458, 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-21\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[21]<\/span><span>T. M. Lenton, D. I. Armstrong McKay, S. Loriani et al. (eds.), The Global Tipping Points Report 2023. University of Exeter, Exeter, 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-22\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[22]<\/span><span>J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-23\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[23]<\/span><span>F. Gaupp, J. Hall, S. Hochrainer-Stigler and S. Dadson, \u201cChanging risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 10, pp. 54\u201357, 2020.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-24\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[24]<\/span><span>M. Lawrence, T. Homer-Dixon, S. Janzwood, J. Rockstr\u00f6m, O. Renn and J. F. Donges, \u201cGlobal polycrisis: the causal mechanisms of crisis entanglement,\u201d Global Sustainability, vol. 7, e6, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-25\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[25]<\/span><span>S. V. Buldyrev, R. Parshani, G. Paul, H. E. Stanley and S. Havlin, \u201cCatastrophic cascade of failures in interdependent networks,\u201d Nature, vol. 464, pp. 1025\u20131028, 2010.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-26\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[26]<\/span><span>M. Romanello et al., \u201cThe 2024 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change,\u201d The Lancet, vol. 404, pp. 1847\u20131896, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-27\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[27]<\/span><span>World Health Assembly (ed.), WHO Pandemic Agreement, resolution WHA78.1. WHO, Geneva, May 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-28\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[28]<\/span><span>World Health Assembly (ed.), Amendments to the International Health Regulations (2005), resolution WHA77.17. WHO, Geneva, June 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-29\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[29]<\/span><span>UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-30\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[30]<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15\/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-31\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[31]<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015\u20132030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-32\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[32]<\/span><span>United Nations (ed.), Agreement under the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea on the Conservation and Sustainable Use of Marine Biological Diversity of Areas beyond National Jurisdiction. United Nations, New York, 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-33\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[33]<\/span><span>International Sustainability Standards Board (ed.), IFRS S1 General Requirements and IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures. IFRS Foundation, London, 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-34\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[34]<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-35\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[35]<\/span><span>WMO and UNDRR (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2024. WMO and UNDRR, Geneva, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-36\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[36]<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-37\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[37]<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-38\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[38]<\/span><span>UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: Water for Prosperity and Peace. UNESCO, Paris, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-39\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[39]<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2024. ECMWF, Reading, January 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-40\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[40]<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), \u201cWMO confirms 2025 was one of warmest years on record.\u201d Press release. WMO, Geneva, January 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-41\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[41]<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2024, WMO-No. 1368. WMO, Geneva, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-42\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[42]<\/span><span>UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2024: Come Hell and High Water. UNEP, Nairobi, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-43\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[43]<\/span><span>World Bank Group (ed.), Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways Out of the Polycrisis. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-44\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[44]<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), World Social Protection Report 2024\u201326: Universal Social Protection for Climate Action and a Just Transition. ILO, Geneva, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-45\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[45]<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Nexus Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-46\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[46]<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Canada Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-47\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[47]<\/span><span>J. Rockstr\u00f6m, J. Gupta, D. Qin et al., \u201cSafe and just Earth system boundaries,\u201d Nature, vol. 619, pp. 102\u2013111, 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-ref-48\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[48]<\/span><span>World Bank Group (ed.), Poverty, Prosperity, and Planet Report 2024: Pathways Out of the Polycrisis, extreme-poverty estimates. World Bank, Washington, DC, 2024.<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-record\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-sr-01-record-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">PR<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Publication record<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-sr-01-record-h\">Who publishes it, on which terms.<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Publication<\/p><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Nexus Strategic Systems Report 2026, Global Polycrisis and Cascading Systems Risk, Baseline Edition<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Nexus Reports \u00b7 Strategic Systems Series SR-01<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Publisher<\/p><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Nexus Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Colophon<\/p><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 __PAGES__ pages \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Nexus Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Nexus Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Nexus Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><p class=\"nx-rd-lab nx-rd-mt\">Release path for this version<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Release path for this version<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td data-label=\"When\">October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">Steward review<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td data-label=\"When\">Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">Approval<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td data-label=\"When\">before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">Deposit<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td data-label=\"When\">at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">Succession<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">the 2027 polycrisis edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td data-label=\"When\">2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Nexus Registry correction pathway<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><footer class=\"nx-rd-folio\"><span class=\"nx-rd-dash\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-word\">Nexus Reports<\/span><span>NR-STRATEGIC-POLYCRISIS-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><span>Evidence close 30 September 2026<\/span><span>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, publisher of record<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-hostmark\" data-host=\"gcri\">The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation<\/span><\/footer><section class=\"nx-section\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-nx-xlinks=\"5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-xl-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-01\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Across the Consortium<\/span><h2 id=\"nx-xl-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-sr-01\" class=\"nx-h3 nx-mt-2\">The same subject across the Consortium.<\/h2><ul class=\"nx-dest nx-mt-3\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" 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