{"id":2607,"date":"2026-10-20T10:54:55","date_gmt":"2026-10-20T10:54:55","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/"},"modified":"2026-10-20T10:54:55","modified_gmt":"2026-10-20T10:54:55","slug":"xt-01","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/","title":{"rendered":"Nexus Exponential Technology Report \u00b7 XT-01 \u00b7 AI and Agentic Systems 2026"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- Nexus Reports \u00b7 GCRI \u00b7 https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/ \u00b7 source sha256:7e215ed6d0ba264fa08885749e8b4c43f0d04db3dd4374463984709365d96ec1 \u00b7 generated by integrations\/wordpress\/nexus-reports\/build.mjs, never edit this file --><script type=\"text\/x-nexus\" class=\"_iub_cs_skip\" id=\"nxe-nr-tools\" 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RXZkUba77RUrVGEQl38G3GMrKdwKOqOuktOpwtSAEAkZ3v9ngRIU+0cI+LdrHBdp\/m+2i0eohfLelg\/VJXZ\/J\/zcJfEBDMWiqM9uSGhme3Vk5J6pkmfbDembUKeJBOETEX053dCg3cDGtHvORetuvobzB+bYDySj2gO8CY7w4xfhtpyS6PGghUvPX2Tua5+NdI8husxLnvT3fZNNv6WRK\/LL\/9N3qoaXsaflxKFD9pVtSbaMrbtDunzqbk4aOAXnNeVoiuAm92\/UEffNz13ArMmRDNMX1TRkhVt7z0ecHbSvvjcJJyIi7rG8di9Z6e9Ej283Tu19mo+VbQH909exLBEKBa9YG0eK31oaQS25wG0lsqmHI0dBc\/xN7L92Gfvp0PTEZLDZIBZjNUQMD7abQv0KwJrBtk9bOtfC7gGRZq1OxgWb5J56tNM\/YiZwvEeT89R46oZzk9vXXsMdNBSS958x2vHAY4FPPnWwt7lRf2lDY34tupGyBjZUFkiYuWTGu\/uhxeWmLE+qs5OB+Rq31EOUZg0nQ81SMKxNLghAVeoDrMwk97zWKhVdeH4d8PTuh3x6euD9fCtx2fEmHBy81jdBtWWQSV3SW6D68jg2u7NcF0ZXDLjt8H1ZHDd4Ga4vgwuocTb4G5kcDe3r1sggxvcvm5bGdzt7etmmVICNm9fOcsa2Rq3Q5ZvOuf21bOk285yb18\/S7rxLI+soBhgWOL4HOG4OQNAgITv036AD8mnx16VIyc4y7SJ80rpSNuXCFKBfX1AdYaq1jgiJFm24SPPJxq58BnmE2WThirkgza32gmhLX8lyWW9gY8kVasZwWfenIxnNubnic2XLc6TE8NnOE+kv6ZCWlilGepyyMrmRshWy6SxhYS17h3jaa9OIJt89\/+r+Zu54YRIn5lBCyJYwYnIZtWzA1PIM+Sq2oakWDirlH6mgBsw8xFWw4xtN9sBpVhPk0tm37JmbBAXZ1W5IXXGND4uaOvKIt6ACcyIbLJRx+fJkFhVxxJaMdFqKtZP07tpidvEYlxWMugevSxv3rRfBs55z1eJZpiGqJZDkrHJ3IByGKXoqHsHxyHyuU\/MNosH+cucigh15TzGxUc+8PZe9rTpwbB5SaxuMBYZjO4lJAVsc9OIuDft6z4XhZDf4R57RNtaOw30FyG+ZoCiu64G2UEg6uoeQ+GxDqOrHx6eJO4CwnkMj3JGGldNv9GuERbanuuCpV+8omMF3B2dMaIffWG1up1GfpGGNrHzfOUCQrBVuYCguxLrjx2U\/ZHEw3s+1KLLQQg36mK\/z7A8hSU54sw7uZ5mXcti+zjPyzMAs6CJry\/odMKohMvjbfbzYfY0T\/S+SfK23\/ligzz2Zjxj1iDFspCPc+78LH5uJ6pZS0rE6jQwF\/FfIG7QOJW4qnDcXkX5AWk6JV25PSe6oRpmyziFGgdDEePeydgmV+26oEz6csD8yDh31MD90wxN9Px489BXOMNRjeNv15G2F03vhLU859cRxrI7mR+CnfG0DlNXX+3Owrb5XNa6Xr5GKyhRhL9NTjkTDC9Og69naQWEab7v3FmMp4z2ZXURcZqPtjdvdHDEfNNb3uFIGUcbRJsAExb9bag6LLbE30alq0WaJ2me1li8KYCqw+hNAfPRsccvC6jdi67qQQ0LeTmcGfnquoRwd7qKQHqrd5NAfRp+yVIhNQXTSVMZjBGhMpapApK0F3FaUqmM7OXzsUmhx4ripJAFY+ogDb0qCPq+Czn2rPY\/dxC3fIWEwiM1Ydjk3ZNpuZXSe+tN\/LxUzeOMtE\/evPDNOdyz69hH1EdRTTJPelEXp3umeOxrqRgO2FR85Xs0pDclztTz3rMbwObyS8L0be4W3vbxsvjVO6iy\/PjqMwqZuS8fPwL3llu0DDWmtaQoxXiST2\/k2rZQRcW7Z+JP0tHXw7tycRVnbkagFtMv\/Go2RuOyZf062x2YjgCOv2WvDmpfyOJP214FjEWJfJFu62tTqFpSpSW4hW3e55wQyHF9A0e\/DZTQm31xn67si5sS1f6I\/slu1P7vLw7cqJ2bm5clpzvQjJCuV+MmMv\/r4Rww3ZXPwL3CRnQXbmpWmyvNt2Z4mfJDjCRFUS9OMA\/BMBVKABeQNe7oXqnh6QejdzkmZW52goPoQI9hmjrvVOJaoR4nLeN1Le+c3K3jK6ZQl5cIMx+3iskMDs6FGVSIMrCvXlMet6Z5F0u+kHcgRHncl6FRTC0oSpbqiYL6X454WZvIkZVijeDXo1FEGOW7pYng89S2ZiiPd0vHh0\/fmNa7pYvg07VBXU8Igorh07WWKams7CSBGQZdKyjku6UdwqdrPKCsGKCnJZaZ4JfXoxHRJKQQlxMksc+0lzg6l7ul54duk5GWtidZUUCsTOImWxZOXsAi7pZ+uPHbWvWvR+O7YUJwWbB1ENNm7ZbYj6IgYdrs3RI5KGaG9t1wdstNElvRhmlzd0s7QXjL\/hZY4gA13P4F7FbsJoHPN1u7pR1tkmjLN9u7pZuETmLyzc5uibbbMEn4Zne3TBwcMM1VXrwmKMsArRM67sYcPrJ2S9\/zvFDyyIbsgYETh8NHzm4ZOaGf2MNH7m6JE7xlu1GkpAsB8pBt8s0WLMeWozZotmGmEWbmiTQ7QK\/ICW2+2d0tgVxwj\/KAUQ0o3dCyXZNvtnbLbWRvXItvtnfLOPSQjflmB2YVua7PN7s0bT7iJ4BMtOt5m4hvhkkOt04b0dg2ExqLXOzzzc5uGfs4SDZ8s8tXJIfmuigx4IwD5HhIaLdgxn3k2EK7vVvayDGZTU\/bHaDkTbxxhXZ3t\/Td2I\/6nVBVZHL9JHQw4lqBkGOPpW9otUkB9shxuFYH+uf6bP8qOrF24Hr9DO4zVFVNFkxzTf9nPgbBimNQxSsfa+d6zPPn9wH7OaBf8W5pRfDp+UaBqpqPMiU8cX+oK7K2yEZMz5oH1m65cRx\/k4gPbCBuz\/Y98YFDMkwjNxAf0DW2UP\/gBe8JISMX2RHXCkSVBInrca1k54SJj7hWZ7eEPb6xuFZ3t9wm2GSw7U8nMs6Ywwat1m7pATa+1d4tfTsMGJqBVofwrQSZXCtgC3Fb3QFaES6bsZkO39rSLuJaYYva3Iih1SElJQKfh0BmMt4yfYjPlGxd5CSO0Az4TN91Xb4ZFtDcmr7wtrNbYjM0A6EZUAZxFDKTgRqycTzP5FrJdHoslUGrDYwscCMegrNbhluEGTYBrcBn\/RgnLOeE8rZ0Qm07ENrJlG5cdruRdpuwD9eJhHaYVjdMPBE+mVjsMBMbZcU5Brx24rBwaLu1W7qR53hYaAdCdTZhEAjtcLrZaMvMIm13gSvGCDN4Dxnl8TZiyB1aASfyEUPY0GqTo3rL8GxohUPdjn2GhKGV8nfEkBp4GejkAsXzzbCaeIsY0ibNwN\/92I0R3wwz68dOgPlmWFBzYzITnqSUvSdJ7Ps+32xBMzIZiiXNNjT7yIn5ZkKxTuAIsMlabsNtyEpURYmBCbpJaPoJ86A6lGeSYJg7lyOjQi8oz6E2TBxtGREjAiG7qnbL0I2DrcsKebimwqdvhyyxR0ZUFifgjWHAHBaRcS5DEGCTZJPYrJR3LCqUQrJpZ4siZlmNFCKroyQOMNsaIqhju1sGOAjYI7qGAAGytokfcucfeQAyyjZ0vUB8YBPOYzoDUIQl+ZIHZMKd0MXshJ9xZiRFVaUZFYY2SHyan6MMo1IyUPL48B6XhUw4hodk10rmlDx8TYkOkABa8VmYFmS1HebEax7tcSFZDYquLkq0x0RExexmpY+L+gDy\/QZt+GEiojd4see7PTGecAEpMijPRgzPbh5YVKZ0Bw+Ap5kBu5WaB\/SsMDeDB\/S4MEN3dl0bRtGKgziII0HRElQdomiJ8hxVtJCFLIRERcsNgyjyBUUrdEM3FBUtASpRtKzACqxwqGjZoR+FprqiFQdW6JsSRStAWx85vKIVRJ5lCopWHIQOIxBRRQuFThjxipaHQhdFvKJlWr7PnCOtoiWgbhWtLY4QtgaKlou2QewMFC3b8n0GX6touaGDtnigaG2QlSBbqmjF2yhI5IpW6G5DLFe0gthPIixVtHzkhsyBwyparueYwVDRCoONx+gxraIVb0LXHypa2yjytmioaCVbLDa7oL56cRANFK0kxg7aDBStZIO2zC5sFS0MYn8yULTCwEZONFC0vMTymYO4VbSibRzhZKBobZ0wwvZA0fLCrRclA0XLTvyNoPuSUYYOp8S0ipZA0Z2iJVB1p2jhCPtxNFS0BOruFC2BwhtFS6DNRtHa2pEXY1HRwjixEldUtBIXecFA0QptK2DMNIyiZXvmuv13WtdqC0N0uhaOcczsAaprRdtoy6xAo2ttrI21keladmhFLpLoWh7Ie1iia6HAdbxEomvhKGDpitG1QuwESNS1EhvjKBR1rciPI0Zka3WtKAz9rahrOW6A3UTUtczYY+1Oja6FUWKzfJ3qWsiP7QCJupYXoMhHoq5lO4Hph6KuZdkuZk7uRtdKwsSJPVHXSuwoZgTxVtdKtoG7FXWt0PdNG4m61iZw2uJVrK6V+HgbWwNdC\/uRt90Mda14G3jxQNdCpu8724Gu5btOZCWiroUTHCeeqGtFbhgz+7DRtbZWEESmqGt5iWduI1HXclzb8pKhrpUkiR9FQ10rieMkCIa6VhKEDjOpna6FnQ22t0NdKzRdnz24W10rcROPsRB1uhZIHsyp1+laICdE3lDXCsKty2pEra7lm\/52sxnoWq5pea6oazmhZwfhQNeythZzUjS6loejrW9LdK2NPdS17MjBDIhW13KSTRJ6A10rSCKLMaF2upYZ+cxIWl0rcj3HCYe6lh+5zGHT6lo4CViLSKtrxVuP3QytroVMzqzU6lpexJmgel3LCv3QQUNdC\/kB8l2ZriUoJJ2utY0iixOsO13LSYJkmwx0LexvE9Mc6lqx52GuvdW1omizZU76RtfCW4wTR6JrRUFkh65E19omYRTJdK3Eju0N0tG1hFXodS3k2LY1qmv52EWOO6prDQbK6lqmubFDe0TXGswpo2uZ5hZvHKmuFUR+7FhSXWuwGryutQn9JBzTtbbkn4Guhd04imKJrpXEiclwkF7XSvxouw0luhYOtuzB2+takechJ5ToWqA52s6HVmf81Mc+9bFPfexTH\/vUxz71sU997FMf+9THPvWxT33sUx\/71MfG9THFnMWwpq9fH0r0KtymHiSHcDwuOUSjfK24FqKkrVYzru3odbfGJagLU10W8llQ1ZDvMdELf0CPKTsau7HOcCxNuISbXQVL3tCFSnnhdbj0HU3IhJdehUve0ITacOKrcJt3NCEDJ78KFl7QhEmOgatAyRuaUOkhchUsfUUTbhrhq0DTCGtCpOfXVaD0Fd09RuSMK3DpC4Mrgp750wxE1hQi606I7ClE9p0QOVOInDshcqcQubcjaqWhK6jaV1azIFvTkK15kO1pyPY8yM40ZGceZHcasqsJGWSpq0wCXvjYkzt\/+\/oQvt6dilqwdyahFuyd6acFe2fiacHemXIALNqXH7FkAPYDlgzAfsCSAdgPWDIA+wFLRo3dV+DSF+ZAtaagWnOg2lNQ7TlQnSmozhyo7hRUXdbM6PrXVZr+vTuIDowJYRpr8+Kd0BLTxDRS8tqdUBKDxzRK8tqdUIIZZRojvHUnhGGqMKlheq8p3WMFdHt8txWkNiSFNaQv3gktsU1NIyWv3QElOK+vY4M3NBkMcZVfhUre0DUToHowM1dyBPXO\/NXC8zSzBHGIqSdfEzP90WrhCAmKOIkXcoPheCH9pV4fv189fr9rq0nfrx6837WVo+9Xj9zv2irR96uH7XdtRej71WP2u\/YZS0MwBJAkG1e3\/pA7R9R5uuCNSXSXNvWq8bZbRFl6ulviyDlpsKD6ZBdDRNNawhZBZaWYCEOWzHWQTF41NZVaWgi2VhlXIy06g\/mq\/gPs8GG2yLvWjqMBUggy\/WG0W5rYcq3GIwGN1EFlm7Zj+31rVJOLoba7ZduMI\/prAQFKoW+1rnB4UhYo3i0jO+q8saQVgaMnMRO79QlDa5jFEB6E7PbCXtNoEGech7zYdxicOMvIHd1ky\/SuiZ\/aJKETsx0sznkNHqnQbu\/nQvOpyN4h9MjzWMikaiTclAu2rf+ewMgqA9Hrrx7im+l9uMCL+OZot9wi+PDNcMMJBUmYzL9k1K0ZdnGUOOKaJXZi4Zhfs2gbbVqvOr9maIs220RcMydxHReJa2ZFFrZtYc18vLFaVy63ZuE2DDmcZM02aIMDb7BmduInbDeaNUOO71mxuGZREEXxcM3CwEX2cM2cZNNdImbWDAWB3wZkMWvG3kpj1oz272ODFT\/X9T9sXVWYZWmQDKMQxWO5FpmZpgn8rVZsW5RTlkaRt6\/iCAdxwreSyI9N2DA6ph1uIccbRC+flkZ5znAPioaAOf7aduy1bTsQ4uWu6JskA+q1N80mE0JppGVKJm+TxD6Ny2jaQriZH0Q0m0fTFgGbDj0\/YtrAS70NUNv5sCxyEkjmbF2vGf6+APqJt6FHD4OSC1ALSPoGe20+2sGKfWzY4gtNDBvFvBO9tFvWSduObCU0hKuFE\/wkNMarhT9ojFZq6b\/y0jii8vlqRtdGSCCJcU8Z5Mvk81c2R7oDOSY7MQO+gFihkYy76UuTtir9FU6K\/cO3SwMfEsF28OGLKtAyzfeyFH9pTnMJS5Q\/IX9qnkb9SkG64oVtqa3XYK0G6zSAserKyB9R9bwDtChj0KOyPkC2syqNMasRLSKURV8gg+7CgOrIDGSylVbcC6RU0gqyblXPu8XHIlFe\/SIvZJSoVVl7UIxpM173nc8R1jOv1S30yo1GqIClCjcieX6VciqzqZS5NMqc1O\/QOg1v0BcyA10Wr7fp\/MjMxIxkRiaQKVuEAlWnN6LydD9vWeJqbdLSPg48NkhWZ+ElPl8mk+DQlaVY7tBKn0\/ONmKnu0muLEtY+O9fDKB1YZgwBndsmDZ5ao4OU7NvNyuWjibx0fVWy\/S9W1gLcwHC3xiR9im9+2zevqTsCdMAqriMNK+GOvk8V24klCGT8oKfBo0j22PGrKkWLeoPIGZMNNM7KYxzXUTg5KQV3XYcqybb0AYePQ5zLsinxjhBpdpK75TnpopWaZ2YqSYbr+HA0dzWd7Ldn566RIk\/PaHqhCNQAuq0gGoFslN9zEkuyKfiTocPlLVbjMzUmr7iueOv3GvCfvmdbE\/+aqR5TDbiDKGLQldLoK5c148H\/lqU8UXnGN8OE2L7o5UxZZnFR48wFQsp1\/cIKr03CT9pmR\/K6XTyjVvSbOOmK5FBQN\/Q7CHk8xTSX\/eCOJPMnvBdef1IW+CsnFDKZu5sRmSDgAdihprhJ39rsvp2iWiHJ69kTHxVEXJ4pscjLhf2ozssLaI1ZxUuU1yJs6YlaZojSduH6xxczYs\/SqmOJh3QrPPCkIRMv0+H99MBQ0mRKSoeDNhWyVFvBmOVZK8IlZ0JnmbGRfn76wGXeis6UBtZ+dd1dVnWmFTPzjQzN46tyxJxfG2lSF01LWq0ZYsjTjk1cGiSVXUO+662uikoDoMOD8Q5jgc+SkoAu941Rt1pwuRXUYaOp537xHTBKEoQY3YvuKzTCGV6A0uKor6oF64JTvyQyQZqqxjSSXB7zipPqywKGnodTq8eooNjZys\/da7tRQhuvcduNI64RncqyBLobq2qBtVFuf4KQbIRCihbV7RgbRGCdGiRtpasDWPI2gzPYout+DJ0bvKLdQ+lhXSvyxZfn6uvD3EJcnn88G2RyssNNYKKXGiYIcO8ohd80avhcm2FnJVQaawXHmi9MUai6eVpc2FCwTHpMyLxKNYdyzmpUbW+VvMrqDTeyputruNfPw1uEDi1yqO33TyVMLa33rwEx6usrhqt48xr+oRtqocrr2SlzqcyyetNli0pbOM9XS8gwKkcpxI\/1Shs5SSNabxL4SxVfCB4apx3KqWpW9Cg7NqX2UX03MYqdKdKel2HPqKaHkxkirP4olfyTrvcXl4aGQpxdhFrME1IeQKlquI6pHl9mdgVrncP7gGY+tMGf30onh++XSbKg8wGHqJ4CD3VqhQEanB+OteXsbKFrstWbYOTiU7f7XXblJidQqkTVS3ClSz6jTIGmbq7REY9XSt8qEvvpFu0nHKav6AsZcopS9Fo0wwqMeK00AA0iBLTqdZVWWhpYK4wN5ykypJFiVFdlJXIo7sapnpwLrfUS6WF1K6JC6yNaq6QcO0s2fiBxlnSjvn6aeLMPU0yvMc5W\/jpP5u4B+F9ksOOqofE2KptFi6LV\/JnWOd\/idMKylXF39Yzfkw2cAuh28FMqWQ4s5o64XlRGyjLilccq\/azOOtYCIhOwlsE\/CmLwJCW1TnCXmVZfPVVqfA+rCXxogxp\/oefa0zFMK2TDSQnoWC83rQ0\/uG7HD4UIiXeE9wUw1Onj3CoS+eOf0UEwBba0hv4j9RRntM8rvD+CkW6ro49KK9wXl8zRJE9U9WorJk9PBDuOEqSGTK9SWqdSXzRAUfPl96r17o8bZOxItms\/m0RL4\/5RMWVm8WY6FwbuZbzrp+xcUeB1EvgjJ1XvDDbFLIz8vMRl2m0W9QoPEM2q\/x8rHSGpcPbdQIozrVxzlNenXLk3qK7sBNAKNcVp7Sqe9bg7OKWBsU09b2ZrOePlONUczMC\/6i\/NfGt6ESyzEmPFuYNyF46Qm3MW2ERv+9G9zbzIhGtdtJKwMxb4AXYjUuzRsu8CuY1bKCsNsL9WjYi\/jfCsHGGX1DfhfalqZG37ymMvX11avTteyrjh7RfYmVf+iTjes49Sq0dw+naRptpDNtGh2mM2kZ3DC4E7fbvQwBN86RlITKmSF6A6tSEboegx0SgCOUvqJqUgLR2xWKXVl9I\/dvYqNMMr5u\/y7R6bv\/OcF61f0Np4\/bvA0YxrEz\/LMu6vw\/pCZzx7fckzWpctt\/w9\/7FIu4APOP3dbPru77A30WRrVkFfc3JAevecLpmT6fitf0aFqiMjZz\/So+aNVe0mXzr\/mhhs7en6BuH9NRNDoqJ6QNiDkhbRh8lz6uLIN6aeivTzlw2XXZZ+sMSoxiXlwlqmtWnEyrrtsAsQP760GzhkVt+15nUrC4cbEXp41oURhOEMKsDRM5A2U3VxoEP4LKgVXkjnAP3rZvvLNWJnh9Lw\/tJ4HJfiBE0jWTR70Qb9X96oiFNjt\/F0vl2H0gcKNyDnkJOpxTkeko7Nc4ycrQ\/fLtQ5G4fyOe5eggf87IyilyGd30znLyosT6UrECgLA9B9cKmjlA0AbhZYMbg4XlaoGnXJATCxBQ24Zc2yPWEbjY20Te6gt2OP+YAnGELn3ksNmIGcAJSm5yg\/b316MkYhvIUvYBg3VxuvaKTkPBEInJLbXUnlOa10cwAveHa3ZKVDZC\/LKuhekB\/0\/xZdhtXOlsNIoZ8bFvAbj76GtjhHrR0uvRMjg2khnd8fUhzkjZSAKzJgEWgNAZwABZExNkg32XwonnwqpoJxBgARfOAEhNNZ2yST6gGbdqdCsmwA8sEVqGsNY4eHeuPPHsIIzOb888cvUczg5lSkMT023BO8ncfNNYe7hufZ6NKqm5nmq5mO2Fgda65R7aBjqu9qD7Kz15Uv\/zuMsdxXlREtu99KrZ5pyNI14Ta9GRxcPpooNaMPm3qao4Vjxxkzi0HWVEZzy9qBGPBZMnIhjjmXO6gF+xNWr1ZxNRCRgT2Jpz699ZjID1Bb4yqnnUINb2M+5WbNPLeGDtZVOT4rhT9Or3J121svr2n5ilL4f5m\/Z5hPYGz7cMCqYdQch4jW\/AYmfM8RgqG4DZShZhWpTcT9QfduHnuGWpQVMahKJ45L4ap4YE0KumNMnF1aBR5q8Ux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class=\"nx-nr-scene-note\">Static view: the interactive graph runs where this page's scripts and WebGL can; every node is also linked on this page.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-scene-intro\"><div class=\"nx-theme-toggle\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Appearance of this page\" hidden><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"light\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Light<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"dark\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Dark<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"auto\" aria-pressed=\"true\">System<\/button><\/div><p class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Nexus Reports \u00b7 The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation \u00b7 Baseline Edition 2026<\/p><span class=\"nx-scene-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nx-scene-accent\">Nexus Exponential Technology Report \u00b7 XT-01<\/p><h1 id=\"nx-scene-title\" class=\"nx-scene-title\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026<\/h1><p class=\"nx-scene-lede\">Artificial intelligence and agentic systems as physical infrastructure, compute, energy, water, chips, labour, safety and governance, at the 2026 baseline<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-surface\">Read the decision surface<\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-findings\">The 12 findings<\/a><\/div><\/div><dl class=\"nx-scene-stats\"><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Findings<\/dt><dd>12<\/dd><dd class=\"nx-scene-stat-note\">each with its status and source<\/dd><\/div><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Sources<\/dt><dd>40<\/dd><dd class=\"nx-scene-stat-note\">NR-CIT-1<\/dd><\/div><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dd class=\"nx-scene-stat-note\">DC-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><\/div><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Status<\/dt><dd>Draft<\/dd><dd class=\"nx-scene-stat-note\">in stewardship review<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-identity\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-identity-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u00b7<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">The record<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-identity-h\">The edition, its identifiers and its stewards.<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-cover-grid\"><div><article class=\"nx-nr-cover\" data-size=\"lg\" data-f=\"F\" data-status=\"drafted\" aria-label=\"Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition 2026, in stewardship review\"><span class=\"nx-nr-cover-plate\"><span class=\"nx-nr-cover-top\"><span class=\"nx-nr-mark\" data-size=\"lg\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"nx-nr-ring\"><\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-mono\">NR<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-word\">NEXUS REPORTS<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-code\">XT-01<\/span><\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-band\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-series\">Technology<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-title\">Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-ed\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-sub\">Artificial intelligence and agentic systems as physical infrastructure, compute, energy, water, chips, labour, safety and governance, at the 2026 baseline<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-foot\"><span class=\"nx-nr-cover-id\">NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-meta\"><span class=\"nx-nr-cover-state\" data-status=\"drafted\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>In stewardship review<\/span> <span class=\"nx-nr-cover-wave\">W0<\/span><\/span><\/span><\/span><\/article><\/div><div><dl class=\"nx-rd-ids\"><div><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-XTC-XT-01-2026-BL<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus material<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li>Exponential Technology Series<\/li><li>Public-safe edition<\/li><li data-hi=\"true\">\u25cc Draft in stewardship review<\/li><\/ul><ol class=\"nx-rd-stewards\"><li data-host=\"true\"><span class=\"nx-rd-key\">T<\/span><span><b>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/b><small>Publisher of record \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 US \/ Canada<\/small><\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-key\">M<\/span><span><b>The Global Risk Forum (GRF)<\/b><small>Public meaning \u00b7 legitimacy \u00b7 Switzerland<\/small><\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-key\">F<\/span><span><b>The Global Risk Alliance (GRA)<\/b><small>Capital meaning \u00b7 finance readiness \u00b7 United States<\/small><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><div class=\"nx-rd-reader\"><nav class=\"nx-rd-rail\" aria-label=\"Contents of this edition\" data-nr-tool=\"rail\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Contents<\/p><ol><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-about\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">00<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-surface\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">01<\/span><span>The edition on one page.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-glance\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">02<\/span><span>Six readings and the questions this edition\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-dashboard\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">03<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-findings\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">04<\/span><span>12 findings, grouped by system, never ranked.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-narrative\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">I<\/span><span>AI is infrastructure, not only software<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-coupling\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">II<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-profile\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">III<\/span><span>Each domain read in words, not scored.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-risks\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">IV<\/span><span>Risk objects, read across the chain.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-capability\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">V<\/span><span>Existence is not readiness.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-scenario\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">VI<\/span><span>Chip supply disruption under grid constraint<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-lenses\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">VII<\/span><span>One edition, read by each steward.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-host-reading\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">MC<\/span><span>Model card, Technology System Model v0<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-agenda\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">VIII<\/span><span>The questions the operational series will\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-x-wat\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">X5<\/span><span>Compute and data centres<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-x-ene\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">X6<\/span><span>Energy and water<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-x-foo\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">X7<\/span><span>Chips and minerals<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-x-hlt\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">X11<\/span><span>Economy and workforce<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-x-bio\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">X13<\/span><span>Safety, security and failure modes<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-process\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">P<\/span><span>How this edition is made, released and\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-open-science\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">OS<\/span><span>This edition's open record.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-outputs\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">O<\/span><span>This edition in every format, with where it\u2026<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-pillars\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">PL<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-corrections\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">C<\/span><span>Versions and notices.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-references\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">R<\/span><span>40 sources this edition rests on.<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-record\"><span class=\"nx-rd-rail-n\">PR<\/span><span>Who publishes it, on which terms.<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ol><\/nav><div class=\"nx-rd-flow\"><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-about\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-about-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">00<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">About this edition<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-about-h\">What this edition is, and is not.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">The first annual edition of the AI and agentic systems report. It fixes the 2026 reference state of AI as physical infrastructure, and the model, voice and positions, against which the 2027 edition and every national readiness chapter will be read.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-cols3\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">What this edition is<\/p><p>A baseline: the state of AI compute, energy, water, chips, adoption, labour, incidents and governance in 2026, and the couplings through which AI carries risk into power systems, supply chains, work and institutions. It treats AI as infrastructure, not only software.<\/p><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">What it is not<\/p><p>Not a capability ranking of models or companies, a forecast of artificial general intelligence, a safety certification or a policy recommendation. Benchmarks are cited with their dates and methods.<\/p><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">What comes next<\/p><p>National readiness chapters and federation evidence feed the 2027 edition. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline, new measurements, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-surface\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-surface-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">01<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Abstract and decision surface<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-surface-h\">The edition on one page.<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-surface\"><div class=\"nx-rd-abstract\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Abstract<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-lede\">Artificial intelligence enters 2027 as physical infrastructure. Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, and the IEA projects roughly 945 TWh by 2030, driven by accelerated servers for AI <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a>. The training compute of frontier models has grown by four to five times a year <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-14\" data-nr-ref=\"14\">[14]<\/a>, while the cost of using a model at a fixed level of performance fell more than 280-fold in two years <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a>. Adoption has spread fast: 78% of organisations reported using AI in 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a>. Supply is concentrated: in 2019 about 92% of the world\u2019s most advanced logic-chip capacity was in Taiwan <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-17\" data-nr-ref=\"17\">[17]<\/a>, and the refining of key minerals is concentrated in a few countries <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-18\" data-nr-ref=\"18\">[18]<\/a>. Reported AI incidents rose by more than half in 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a>, and governance is moving from principles to law, led by the phased application of the EU AI Act <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-4\" data-nr-ref=\"4\">[4]<\/a>. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for AI as a system of compute, energy, water, chips, labour and institutions, and sets the questions the 2027 edition will answer. It ranks no model, company or country.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>artificial intelligence<\/li><li>agentic systems<\/li><li>compute<\/li><li>data centres<\/li><li>semiconductors<\/li><li>AI safety<\/li><li>AI governance<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-headline\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Headline finding<\/p><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-hf\">Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, and the IEA projects about 945 TWh by 2030, driven mainly by accelerated servers for AI.<\/p><figure class=\"nx-rd-fig\"><figcaption class=\"nx-rd-figcap\"><span class=\"nx-rd-figid\">Headline figure<\/span><span>Data-centre electricity use (TWh)<\/span><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nx-rd-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 760 68\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Data-centre electricity use (TWh)\"><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-l\" x=\"180\" y=\"25\" text-anchor=\"end\">2024 \u00b7 observed estimate<\/text><rect class=\"nx-rd-svg-bar\" x=\"190\" y=\"10\" width=\"219.6\" height=\"20\" rx=\"2\"\/><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-v\" x=\"417.6\" y=\"25\">415<\/text><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-l\" x=\"180\" y=\"55\" text-anchor=\"end\">2030 \u00b7 IEA base case<\/text><rect class=\"nx-rd-svg-bar\" x=\"190\" y=\"40\" width=\"500.0\" height=\"20\" rx=\"2\"\/><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-v\" x=\"698.0\" y=\"55\">945<\/text><\/svg><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Source: IEA, Energy and AI <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a>.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Implication<\/p><p>Because demand is clustered, the first effects fall on particular grids, water basins and communities: connection queues, local price pressure and competition for clean power. The global share stays small while local shares become large <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-15\" data-nr-ref=\"15\">[15]<\/a>.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-glance\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-glance-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">02<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">At a glance<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-glance-h\">Six readings and the questions this edition answers.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Six readings that frame the AI baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-profile\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">415<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">TWh<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">data-centre electricity, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">78<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">organisations using AI <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">252<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">US$ bn<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">corporate AI investment, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">92<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">leading-edge chips in one region <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-17\" data-nr-ref=\"17\">[17]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">233<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">incidents<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">reported in 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">2.6<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">billion<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">people offline, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-34\" data-nr-ref=\"34\">[34]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><ol class=\"nx-rd-qa\"><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How much power does AI use?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, rising to about 945 TWh by 2030 in the IEA base case. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How fast is capability scaling?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">Frontier training compute has grown four- to five-fold a year. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-14\" data-nr-ref=\"14\">[14]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Is AI getting cheaper?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">The cost of GPT-3.5-level performance fell more than 280-fold in two years. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How concentrated is supply?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">About 92% of leading-edge chip capacity sat in one region in 2019. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-17\" data-nr-ref=\"17\">[17]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How widely is AI used?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">78% of organisations used AI in 2024. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">What does it mean for work?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">A quarter to two-fifths of jobs are exposed; exposure is not job loss. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-16\" data-nr-ref=\"16\">[16]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-32\" data-nr-ref=\"32\">[32]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Are harms rising?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">Reported incidents reached a record 233 in 2024. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">What will 2027 test first?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-a\">A chip supply disruption coinciding with grid limits at data-centre clusters. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\">SCN-XT01-CHG-01<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-qa-st\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25ce<\/span>EXPERT INPUT<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-dashboard\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-dashboard-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">03<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Systems dashboard<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-dashboard-h\">Where each system stood at evidence close.<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-tiles\"><article class=\"nx-rd-tile\" data-sys=\"ENE\"><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">ENE<\/span>Energy<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-m\">Data-centre electricity use<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-v\"><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">415<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">TWh<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-note\">about 1.5% of world electricity; about 945 TWh projected by 2030.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-foot\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>IEA <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-tile\" data-sys=\"NAT\"><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">NAT<\/span>National grid<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-m\">Data centres\u2019 share of US electricity<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-v\"><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">4.4<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-note\">projected at 6.7\u201312% by 2028 in the national laboratory\u2019s scenarios.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-foot\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span>2023<\/span><span>LBNL <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-15\" data-nr-ref=\"15\">[15]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-tile\" data-sys=\"CMP\"><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">CMP<\/span>Compute<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-m\">Growth in frontier training compute<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-v\"><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">4\u20135\u00d7<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">a year<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-note\">sustained since about 2010.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-foot\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span>2010\u20132024<\/span><span>Epoch AI <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-14\" data-nr-ref=\"14\">[14]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-tile\" data-sys=\"ADO\"><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">ADO<\/span>Adoption<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-m\">Organisations using AI<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-v\"><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">78<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-note\">up from 55% in 2023; corporate AI investment reached US$252 billion.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-foot\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>AI Index <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-tile\" data-sys=\"CHP\"><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">CHP<\/span>Chips<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-m\">Leading-edge logic capacity in Taiwan<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-v\"><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">92<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-note\">a single-region concentration in the AI supply chain.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-foot\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span>2019<\/span><span>SIA\u2013BCG <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-17\" data-nr-ref=\"17\">[17]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-tile\" data-sys=\"SYS\"><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SYS<\/span>Incidents<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-m\">Reported AI incidents<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-v\"><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">233<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">in 2024<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-note\">a record, up 56% on 2023.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-tile-foot\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>AI Index <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-findings\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-findings-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">04<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Key findings<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-findings-h\">12 findings, grouped by system, never ranked.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Twelve findings carry the AI baseline. They are grouped by coupling, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-ledger\" data-nr-tool=\"findings\"><div class=\"nx-rd-ledger-bar\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Filter findings\"><span class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Status<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-filter\" data-f=\"st\" data-v=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-filter\" data-f=\"st\" data-v=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25ce<\/span>EXPERT INPUT<\/span><\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">ENE<\/span>Energy<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001\" data-sys=\"ENE\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total; the IEA projects about 945 TWh by 2030. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002\" data-sys=\"ENE\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Data centres used about 4.4% of US electricity in 2023, with 6.7\u201312% projected for 2028. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-15\" data-nr-ref=\"15\">[15]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">CMP<\/span>Compute<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CMP-003\" data-sys=\"CMP\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CMP-003\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CMP-003<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">The training compute of frontier models has grown by four to five times a year since about 2010. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-14\" data-nr-ref=\"14\">[14]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CMP-004\" data-sys=\"CMP\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CMP-004\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CMP-004<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">The cost of using a model at GPT-3.5 level fell more than 280-fold between November 2022 and October 2024. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">MIN<\/span>Minerals<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005\" data-sys=\"MIN\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">About 92% of leading-edge logic-chip capacity was in Taiwan in 2019; key mineral refining is concentrated in a few countries. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-17\" data-nr-ref=\"17\">[17]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-18\" data-nr-ref=\"18\">[18]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">ADO<\/span>Adoption<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ADO-006\" data-sys=\"ADO\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ADO-006\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ADO-006<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">78% of organisations reported using AI in 2024, up from 55% in 2023; corporate AI investment reached about US$252 billion. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">LAB<\/span>Labour<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-LAB-007\" data-sys=\"LAB\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-LAB-007\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-LAB-007<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Between about a quarter and two-fifths of global employment is exposed to AI, depending on definition. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-16\" data-nr-ref=\"16\">[16]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-32\" data-nr-ref=\"32\">[32]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-LAB-008\" data-sys=\"LAB\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-LAB-008\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-LAB-008<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">About one in four jobs worldwide is in an occupation exposed to generative AI, and 3.3% of global employment falls in the highest exposure category; most exposed jobs are more likely to be transformed than eliminated. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SAF<\/span>Safety<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SAF-009\" data-sys=\"SAF\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SAF-009\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SAF-009<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Reported AI incidents reached a record 233 in 2024, up 56% on 2023. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-27\" data-nr-ref=\"27\">[27]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">GOV<\/span>Governance<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010\" data-sys=\"GOV\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-010<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">Binding AI law has begun: the EU AI Act applies in phases from 2025, alongside a Council of Europe convention and UN governance bodies. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-4\" data-nr-ref=\"4\">[4]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-10\" data-nr-ref=\"10\">[10]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-12\" data-nr-ref=\"12\">[12]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">DEV<\/span>Development<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-011\" data-sys=\"DEV\" data-st=\"reported\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-011\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-011<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">About 2.6 billion people remained offline in 2024, limiting who can benefit from AI. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-34\" data-nr-ref=\"34\">[34]<\/a><\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-group\"><p class=\"nx-rd-group-h\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">SYS<\/span>Systemic<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-findings\"><li class=\"nx-rd-finding\" id=\"nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\" data-sys=\"SYS\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><div class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25ce<\/span>EXPERT INPUT<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nx-rd-fid\" href=\"#nx-NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is an advanced-chip supply disruption coinciding with grid constraints at major data-centre clusters. <span class=\"nx-rd-refs\">\u00a7 scenario<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-narrative\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-narrative-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">I<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Part I \u00b7 lead chapter<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-narrative-h\">AI is infrastructure, not only software<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-prose\"><p class=\"nx-rd-dropcap\">AI is usually described by what models can do. This baseline describes what AI needs: electricity, water, chips, minerals, networks, skilled people and institutions. Read that way, AI is one of the fastest-growing loads on the world\u2019s physical systems, and one of the most concentrated supply chains in the global economy.<\/p><p>Demand is rising fast. Data centres used about 415 TWh of electricity in 2024, about 1.5% of the world total, and the IEA projects about 945 TWh by 2030 in its base case <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a>. In the United States, data centres used about 4.4% of electricity in 2023, with 6.7\u201312% projected for 2028 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-15\" data-nr-ref=\"15\">[15]<\/a>. Demand is clustered in a few regions, so its effects on grids and water are local before they are global.<\/p><p>Capability is scaling at a pace few infrastructures have seen. Frontier training compute has grown by four to five times a year <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-14\" data-nr-ref=\"14\">[14]<\/a>, while the cost of reaching a fixed level of performance has collapsed: GPT-3.5-level use became more than 280 times cheaper between late 2022 and late 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a>. Cheaper use spreads adoption, 78% of organisations reported using AI in 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a>, and spreads the energy demand with it.<\/p><p>Supply is concentrated. In 2019 about 92% of leading-edge logic-chip capacity was in Taiwan <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-17\" data-nr-ref=\"17\">[17]<\/a>. The refining of minerals used in chips and batteries is concentrated in a few countries <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-18\" data-nr-ref=\"18\">[18]<\/a>, and export controls on chips, tools and minerals have tightened since 2022 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-19\" data-nr-ref=\"19\">[19]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-29\" data-nr-ref=\"29\">[29]<\/a>. A single regional disruption could constrain AI capacity worldwide.<\/p><p>Harms are rising with use. Reported AI incidents reached a record 233 in 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a>, and the International AI Safety Report documents risks from malicious use, malfunction and systemic effects on labour and information <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-3\" data-nr-ref=\"3\">[3]<\/a>. Agentic systems that act on their own add new failure modes, while incident data on them remain thin.<\/p><p>Governance is moving from principles to law. The EU AI Act applies in phases from 2025 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-4\" data-nr-ref=\"4\">[4]<\/a>; the Council of Europe opened a binding convention in 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-10\" data-nr-ref=\"10\">[10]<\/a>; and in 2025 the UN General Assembly created an independent scientific panel and a global dialogue on AI <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-12\" data-nr-ref=\"12\">[12]<\/a>. About 2.6 billion people remain offline <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-34\" data-nr-ref=\"34\">[34]<\/a>, so access is itself a governance question.<\/p><p>This edition therefore reads AI as part of the coupled system. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does an AI-driven shock travel next, and who holds the capability to contain it?<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nx-rd-fig\"><figcaption class=\"nx-rd-figcap\"><span class=\"nx-rd-figid\">FIG. 1.3 \u00b7 FIG-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/span><span>How fast is AI being adopted, and at what scale? Selected indicators, 2024<\/span><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nx-rd-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 760 128\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"How fast is AI being adopted, and at what scale? Selected indicators, 2024\"><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-l\" x=\"180\" y=\"25\" text-anchor=\"end\">Organisations using AI (%)<\/text><rect class=\"nx-rd-svg-bar\" x=\"190\" y=\"10\" width=\"500.0\" height=\"20\" rx=\"2\"\/><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-v\" x=\"698.0\" y=\"25\">78<\/text><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-l\" x=\"180\" y=\"55\" text-anchor=\"end\">Same, 2023 (%)<\/text><rect class=\"nx-rd-svg-bar\" x=\"190\" y=\"40\" width=\"352.6\" height=\"20\" rx=\"2\"\/><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-v\" x=\"550.6\" y=\"55\">55<\/text><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-l\" x=\"180\" y=\"85\" text-anchor=\"end\">Share of jobs exposed, IMF (%)<\/text><rect class=\"nx-rd-svg-bar\" x=\"190\" y=\"70\" width=\"256.4\" height=\"20\" rx=\"2\"\/><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-v\" x=\"454.4\" y=\"85\">40<\/text><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-l\" x=\"180\" y=\"115\" text-anchor=\"end\">Share of jobs exposed, ILO (%)<\/text><rect class=\"nx-rd-svg-bar\" x=\"190\" y=\"100\" width=\"160.3\" height=\"20\" rx=\"2\"\/><text class=\"nx-rd-svg-v\" x=\"358.3\" y=\"115\">25<\/text><\/svg><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Adoption rose by 23 points in a year, faster than most general-purpose technologies. Exposure estimates for jobs vary by definition, so the labour question is how exposure turns into augmentation or substitution <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-16\" data-nr-ref=\"16\">[16]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-32\" data-nr-ref=\"32\">[32]<\/a>.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">252<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">US$ bn<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">corporate AI investment, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">25<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">per cent<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">of global employment in occupations exposed to generative AI <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">3.3<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">per cent<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">of global employment in the highest exposure category <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">2.6<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">billion<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">people offline, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-34\" data-nr-ref=\"34\">[34]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-coupling\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-coupling-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">II<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Dependency network<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-coupling-h\">Twenty couplings between five systems.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">The technology-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for the demands and effects of AI. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence; they set the graph that measurement will test in 2027.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-coupling\" data-nr-tool=\"coupling\"><div class=\"nx-rd-coupling-stage\"><svg class=\"nx-rd-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 380 380\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: twenty typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><div class=\"nx-rd-detail\" aria-live=\"polite\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Select a system<\/p><p>Each line is one coupling, weighted by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-rd-matrix\"><caption class=\"nx-rd-lab\">From (row) to (column) \u00b7 \u25c6 ESTIMATED<\/caption><thead><tr><td><\/td><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">WAT <small>Water<\/small><\/th><td class=\"nx-rd-mx-self\" aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"WAT\" data-to=\"ENE\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">hydro \u00b7 thermal cooling<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"WAT\" data-to=\"FOO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"WAT\" data-to=\"HLT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">safe water \u00b7 sanitation<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"WAT\" data-to=\"BIO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">ENE <small>Energy<\/small><\/th><td data-w=\"MODERATE\" data-from=\"ENE\" data-to=\"WAT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">MODERATE<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">pumping \u00b7 treatment \u00b7 desalination<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mx-self\" aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"ENE\" data-to=\"FOO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">fuel \u00b7 fertiliser \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"ENE\" data-to=\"HLT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">air pollution \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"MODERATE\" data-from=\"ENE\" data-to=\"BIO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">MODERATE<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">land use \u00b7 mining<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">FOO <small>Food<\/small><\/th><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"FOO\" data-to=\"WAT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">\u224870% of withdrawals<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"WEAK\" data-from=\"FOO\" data-to=\"ENE\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">WEAK<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">bioenergy feedstock<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mx-self\" aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"FOO\" data-to=\"HLT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"FOO\" data-to=\"BIO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">HLT <small>Health<\/small><\/th><td data-w=\"WEAK\" data-from=\"HLT\" data-to=\"WAT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">WEAK<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"WEAK\" data-from=\"HLT\" data-to=\"ENE\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">WEAK<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"MODERATE\" data-from=\"HLT\" data-to=\"FOO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">MODERATE<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">labour \u00b7 disease<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mx-self\" aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/td><td data-w=\"WEAK\" data-from=\"HLT\" data-to=\"BIO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">WEAK<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">BIO <small>Biodiversity<\/small><\/th><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"BIO\" data-to=\"WAT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"MODERATE\" data-from=\"BIO\" data-to=\"ENE\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">MODERATE<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">biomass \u00b7 hydrology<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"STRONG\" data-from=\"BIO\" data-to=\"FOO\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">STRONG<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">pollination \u00b7 soils<\/span><\/td><td data-w=\"MODERATE\" data-from=\"BIO\" data-to=\"HLT\"><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-w\">MODERATE<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-mx-m\">zoonoses \u00b7 medicines<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mx-self\" aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Transmission paths<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-paths\"><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">AIC \u2192 ENE \u2192 cities<\/span><span>clustered data-centre load lengthens grid queues and raises local prices<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span> United States clusters <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-15\" data-nr-ref=\"15\">[15]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">MIN \u2192 AIC<\/span><span>a mineral or chip export control constrains compute supply<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span> gallium and germanium, 2023 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-19\" data-nr-ref=\"19\">[19]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">AIC \u2192 WAT<\/span><span>cooling demand competes with local water use<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span> water-stressed sites <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-25\" data-nr-ref=\"25\">[25]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">AIC \u2192 DAT \u2192 FIN<\/span><span>concentrated cloud and model dependencies create common failures<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span> large outages<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">AIC \u2192 labour<\/span><span>automation changes tasks faster than retraining<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span> exposure estimates <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-16\" data-nr-ref=\"16\">[16]<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab nx-rd-mt\">Reinforcing loops \u00b7 both directions rated strong<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-paths\"><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">WAT \u21c4 FOO<\/span><span>Water to food: irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield. Food to water: \u224870% of withdrawals.<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"estimated\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25c6<\/span>ESTIMATED<\/span> in 4 of 10 drafted editions<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">WAT \u21c4 BIO<\/span><span>Water to biodiversity: flows \u00b7 wetlands. Biodiversity to water: regulation \u00b7 filtration.<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"estimated\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25c6<\/span>ESTIMATED<\/span> in 10 of 10 drafted editions<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">FOO \u21c4 BIO<\/span><span>Food to biodiversity: land conversion. Biodiversity to food: pollination \u00b7 soils.<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"estimated\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25c6<\/span>ESTIMATED<\/span> in 10 of 10 drafted editions<\/span><\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">A shock entering either system of a loop returns amplified through the other. A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-profile\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-profile-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">III<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Domain posture<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-profile-h\">Each domain read in words, not scored.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through AI, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency through which AI carries risk into each domain.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Cooling water demand rising at data-centre clusters; global volumes not consolidated.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">AIC \u2192 WAT<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25ce<\/span>EXPERT INPUT<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">About 415 TWh in 2024, projected to about 945 TWh by 2030.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">AIC \u2192 ENE<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">AI in agriculture is early; supply-chain optimisation spreading.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">AIC \u2192 FOO<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25ce<\/span>EXPERT INPUT<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Clinical and research uses grow; safety and bias concerns documented.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">AIC \u2192 HLT<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Monitoring uses grow; physical footprint adds land and water pressure.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">AIC \u2194 BIO<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25ce<\/span>EXPERT INPUT<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">AI aids forecasting; data-centre emissions depend on the power mix.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">AIC \u2194 CLI<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">INF<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Data centres become critical infrastructure; grid connection queues lengthen.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">AIC \u2192 INF<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Corporate AI investment about US$252 billion in 2024; valuations concentrated.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">AIC \u2192 FIN<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Cloud and model concentration create common points of failure.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">DAT \u2194 AIC<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Compute scaling four to five times a year; costs falling fast.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">the core system<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Chips and their minerals concentrated in a few countries.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">MIN \u2192 AIC<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Domain\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Posture at baseline\">Export controls on chips, tools and minerals since 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Coupling\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">TRD \u2192 AIC<\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab nx-rd-mt\">Sector screens<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-p\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their exposure to AI, on the same grammar as every edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-00<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Cross-system<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">AI couples energy, water, minerals and labour <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-36\" data-nr-ref=\"36\">[36]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">concentrated common dependencies<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-01<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Water<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">cooling demand at clusters <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-37\" data-nr-ref=\"37\">[37]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">local water competition<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-02<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Energy<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">about 1.5% of electricity <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">grid strain at clusters<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-03<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Food<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">early adoption<\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">supply-chain dependence on AI tools<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-04<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Health<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">clinical and research uses<\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">safety, bias, privacy<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-05<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Finance<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">investment about US$252 billion <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">valuation concentration<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-06<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Development<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">2.6 billion offline <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-34\" data-nr-ref=\"34\">[34]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">unequal access to benefits<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-07<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Climate<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">emissions depend on power mix <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">demand growth against clean supply<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-08<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Disaster<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">AI in forecasting and response<\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">over-reliance; failures under stress<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-09<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">data centres as critical assets<\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">connection queues; single points of failure<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-10<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Cities<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">clusters in a few metro regions<\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">local grid and water pressure<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-11<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Biodiversity<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">monitoring uses<\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">land and water footprint<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-12<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Earth observation<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">AI-assisted analysis growing<\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">model and data provenance<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-13<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Cyber and digital<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">AI changes attack and defence <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-21\" data-nr-ref=\"21\">[21]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">automated attacks on infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-14<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Policy<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">binding AI law has begun <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-4\" data-nr-ref=\"4\">[4]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-10\" data-nr-ref=\"10\">[10]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">implementation capacity<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Code\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">GS-15<\/td><td data-label=\"Sector\">Science<\/td><td data-label=\"Baseline evidence\">AI accelerates research<\/td><td data-label=\"Exposure to watch\">reproducibility and dual use<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence coverage\">PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-risks\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-risks-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">IV<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Risk portfolio<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-risks-h\">Risk objects, read across the chain.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Four AI risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-risks\"><article class=\"nx-rd-risk\"><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">RSK-XT01-MIN-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Advanced-chip supply disruption<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>conflict, disaster or export control in a concentrated supply region<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>all AI compute; wider electronics<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>about 92% of leading-edge capacity in one region (2019) <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-17\" data-nr-ref=\"17\">[17]<\/a><\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>new fabs; stockpiles; diversification<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>MIN \u2192 AIC \u2192 FIN, INF<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20135 years<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-risk\"><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">RSK-XT01-ENE-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Grid and water constraints at data-centre clusters<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>fast load growth in a few regions<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>local grids, water basins, communities<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>long connection queues; water stress<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>grid build-out; efficiency; siting rules<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>AIC \u2192 ENE, WAT \u2192 cities<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20133 years<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-risk\"><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 2<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">RSK-XT01-SAF-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Failures and misuse of agentic systems<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>autonomous agents acting in real systems<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>finance, cyber, critical services<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>thin incident data; limited oversight<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>evaluations, monitoring, risk frameworks <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-5\" data-nr-ref=\"5\">[5]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-6\" data-nr-ref=\"6\">[6]<\/a><\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>AIC \u2192 DAT \u2192 FIN, INF<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1\u20133 years<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-risk\"><p class=\"nx-rd-finding-meta\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">RSK-XT01-LAB-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Labour displacement outpacing transition<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>rapid adoption across tasks<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>a quarter to two-fifths of jobs <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-16\" data-nr-ref=\"16\">[16]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-32\" data-nr-ref=\"32\">[32]<\/a><\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>weak retraining and social protection<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>skills programmes; social protection<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>AIC \u2192 labour \u2192 FIN, HLT<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>3\u20135 years<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/article><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-capability\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-capability-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">V<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Capability ladder<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-capability-h\">Existence is not readiness.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for AI at the global level.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><ol class=\"nx-rd-ladder\"><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Prevention and mitigation<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">risk-management frameworks published <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-5\" data-nr-ref=\"5\">[5]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-6\" data-nr-ref=\"6\">[6]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-7\" data-nr-ref=\"7\">[7]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Monitoring and observation<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">incident databases and monitors <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-27\" data-nr-ref=\"27\">[27]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-28\" data-nr-ref=\"28\">[28]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"1\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Early warning<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">LISTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">no shared warning system for systemic AI failures<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Preparedness and planning<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">national AI strategies widespread<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"1\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Redundancy and reserves<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">LISTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">chip and compute redundancy limited<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Response<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">incident response in firms; cross-border response untested<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Continuity of critical services<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">cloud continuity planning; large outages still occur<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Recovery<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">standard IT recovery practice<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Adaptation<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">skills and education programmes expanding<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"1\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Social protection<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">LISTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">little AI-specific transition support<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Finance and insurance<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">AI liability and insurance markets nascent<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Institutional coordination<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">summits, UN panel and dialogue created <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-12\" data-nr-ref=\"12\">[12]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-13\" data-nr-ref=\"13\">[13]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Technical infrastructure<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">EXISTS<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">compute concentrated in few providers<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"1\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Workforce<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">LISTED<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">skills shortages widely reported<\/span><\/li><li data-lvl=\"0\"><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-fn\">Research capacity<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-w\">ADEQUATE<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-ladder-ev\">large research base; safety research small relative to capability <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-3\" data-nr-ref=\"3\">[3]<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Ladder: LISTED, EXISTS, DEMONSTRATED, TESTED. A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-scenario\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-scenario-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">VI<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Scenario \u00b7 SCN-XT01-CHG-01<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-scenario-h\">Chip supply disruption under grid constraint<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Assumptions<\/p><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a disruption to leading-edge chip supply from a single region, while large data-centre clusters face grid limits<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>2021 chip shortage; 2023 mineral export controls<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Cascade, step by step<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-steps\"><li><span class=\"nx-rd-step-n\">1<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">MIN \u2192 AIC<\/span><span>leading-edge chip output falls sharply<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">2021 shortage<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-step-n\">2<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">AIC \u2192 FIN<\/span><span>compute prices rise; investment plans stall<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">2021<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-step-n\">3<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">AIC \u2192 INF<\/span><span>existing clusters run hotter and longer<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">peak events<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-step-n\">4<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">ENE \u2192 AIC<\/span><span>grid limits cap new capacity at clusters<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">queues <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-15\" data-nr-ref=\"15\">[15]<\/a><\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-step-n\">5<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">AIC \u2192 services<\/span><span>AI-dependent services degrade or ration<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">cloud outages<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-step-n\">6<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path\">TRD \u2192 all<\/span><span>export controls and stockpiling amplify the shock<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">2023 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-19\" data-nr-ref=\"19\">[19]<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-mt\"><figure class=\"nx-lp\" data-ra-lesson=\"nr-scen-xt-01\" data-lp-json=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;nr-scen-xt-01&quot;,&quot;constants&quot;:{},&quot;params&quot;:[],&quot;outputs&quot;:[],&quot;steps&quot;:[{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Minerals to ai compute&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Leading-edge chip output falls sharply. Analogue or source: 2021 shortage.&quot;,&quot;cite&quot;:&quot;Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 1&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;n0&quot;,&quot;n1&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;n0&quot;,&quot;n1&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;AI compute to finance&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Compute prices rise; investment plans stall. Analogue or source: 2021.&quot;,&quot;cite&quot;:&quot;Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 2&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;n1&quot;,&quot;n2&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;n1&quot;,&quot;n2&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;AI compute to infrastructure&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Existing clusters run hotter and longer. Analogue or source: peak events.&quot;,&quot;cite&quot;:&quot;Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 3&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;n1&quot;,&quot;n3&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;n1&quot;,&quot;n3&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Energy to ai compute&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Grid limits cap new capacity at clusters. Analogue or source: queues [15].&quot;,&quot;cite&quot;:&quot;Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 4&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;n4&quot;,&quot;n1&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;n4&quot;,&quot;n1&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;AI compute to services&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;AI-dependent services degrade or ration. Analogue or source: cloud outages.&quot;,&quot;cite&quot;:&quot;Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 5&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;n1&quot;,&quot;n5&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;n1&quot;,&quot;n5&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Trade to all&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Export controls and stockpiling amplify the shock. Analogue or source: 2023 [19].&quot;,&quot;cite&quot;:&quot;Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 6&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;n6&quot;,&quot;n7&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;n6&quot;,&quot;n7&quot;]]}],&quot;stepMs&quot;:3200,&quot;chart&quot;:null}\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Lesson: Chip supply disruption under grid constraint\"><div class=\"nx-lp-head\"><h3 class=\"nx-lp-title\">Chip supply disruption under grid constraint<\/h3><p class=\"nx-lp-claim\">How the shock in scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01 would travel through Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems's coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-lp-canvas\"><svg class=\"nx-figure nx-ui nx-dag nx-lp-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 938 266\" data-ra-lesson-canvas=\"true\" data-w=\"938\" data-h=\"266\" data-wb=\"l\" role=\"img\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-lp-nr-scen-xt-01-t nx-lp-nr-scen-xt-01-d\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><title id=\"nx-lp-nr-scen-xt-01-t\">Chip supply disruption under grid constraint<\/title><desc id=\"nx-lp-nr-scen-xt-01-d\">How the shock in scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01 would travel through Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems's coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/desc><\/svg><\/div><div class=\"nx-lp-bar\" role=\"toolbar\" aria-label=\"Lesson transport\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn nx-lp-play\" data-lp-act=\"play\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-label=\"Play\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M2 1.5v9l8-4.5z\"\/><\/svg><svg viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M2 1.5h3v9H2zm5 0h3v9H7z\"\/><\/svg><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn\" data-lp-act=\"prev\" aria-label=\"Previous step\">&#8249;<\/button><span class=\"nx-lp-scrub-slot\" data-lp-scrub-slot=\"5\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"nx-lp-scrub-fill\" data-lp-fill=\"true\"><\/span><\/span><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn\" data-lp-act=\"next\" aria-label=\"Next step\">&#8250;<\/button><span class=\"nx-lp-counter\" data-lp-counter=\"true\">1 \/ 6<\/span><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn nx-lp-speed\" data-lp-act=\"speed\" aria-label=\"Speed 1x\">1x<\/button><\/div><p class=\"nx-lp-narr\"><span data-lp-narr=\"true\">Leading-edge chip output falls sharply. Analogue or source: 2021 shortage.<\/span> <cite class=\"nx-lp-cite\" data-lp-cite=\"true\">Edition XT-01, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01, step 1<\/cite><\/p><ol class=\"nx-lp-steps\" aria-label=\"Steps\"><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"0\" aria-current=\"step\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">1<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Minerals to ai compute<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"1\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">2<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">AI compute to finance<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"2\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">3<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">AI compute to infrastructure<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"3\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">4<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Energy to ai compute<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"4\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">5<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">AI compute to services<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"5\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">6<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Trade to all<\/span><\/button><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nx-lp-io\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-lp-cap\"><p class=\"nx-lp-shows\">The cascade of scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01 as a playable chain of couplings, one step at a time.<\/p><p class=\"nx-lp-honesty\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition's stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning.<\/p><\/figcaption><p class=\"nx-lp-src\"><span>Sources: <\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/#nx-nr-xt-01-scenario\" rel=\"noopener\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026, scenario SCN-XT01-CHG-01<\/a> (2026); AI and Agentic Systems 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-lenses\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-lenses-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">VII<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Three lenses<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-lenses-h\">One edition, read by each steward.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">The AI baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-lenses\"><article class=\"nx-rd-lens\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading AI as physical infrastructure with fast-rising, clustered demand for power and water, and a highly concentrated supply chain. Evidence is strongest for electricity use and adoption, and weakest for water, inference energy and agentic failures.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-lens-c\">ENE-001 \u00b7 MIN-005 \u00b7 SAF-009 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-lens\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people AI arrives as a tool at work, a change in a job or a new data centre nearby. The baseline asks that public debate weigh the physical and social footprint of AI, power, water, work and access, alongside its benefits.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-lens-c\">LAB-007 \u00b7 DEV-011 \u00b7 ENE-002<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-lens\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Investment is large and concentrated, supply risk sits in a few regions, and liability and insurance for AI are nascent. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-lens-c\">ADO-006 \u00b7 MIN-005<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nx-rd-lens\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nx-rd-h3\">Nexus Synthesis<\/h3><p>AI is scaling faster than the infrastructure and institutions around it. The 2027 programme should measure the physical couplings, test the chip\u2013grid pathway, and build incident evidence for agentic systems before they become critical.<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-lens-c\">SYS-012 \u00b7 X-01 \u00b7 X-04<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-host-reading\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-host-reading-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">MC<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation reading<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-host-reading-h\">Model card, Technology System Model v0<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-XT01-AI \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent AI as infrastructure coupled to energy, water, minerals, labour and institutions<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of systems<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for site, company or model-level use<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">20<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">couplings<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">typed in v0<\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">11<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">strong<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">documented within one season<\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">5<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">moderate<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">documented, buffered<\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">4<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">weak<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">plausible, undocumented<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the entangled reading of global risk.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-agenda\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-agenda-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">VIII<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">2027 agenda<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-agenda-h\">The questions the operational series will answer.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 AI agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 edition.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><ol class=\"nx-rd-agenda\"><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">X-01<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Where will data-centre demand exceed grid and water capacity first, and what does that do to local prices and reliability?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">INI-XT01-GRD-01 \u00b7 compute\u2013grid\u2013water \u00b7 first output: cluster capacity register<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">X-02<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How exposed is AI capability to a disruption in advanced chips, tools or minerals?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">INI-XT01-CHP-02 \u00b7 supply concentration \u00b7 first output: single-point-of-failure map<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">X-03<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How much energy does inference use as AI agents spread, compared with training?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">INI-XT01-INF-03 \u00b7 inference energy \u00b7 first output: measured estimates by use<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">X-04<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Which failure modes of agentic systems appear in real incidents, and how are they caught?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">INI-XT01-SAF-04 \u00b7 agentic incidents \u00b7 first output: incident taxonomy and evidence grades<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">X-05<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Is AI augmenting or substituting work, by occupation and region, on measured rather than modelled evidence?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">INI-XT01-LAB-05 \u00b7 measured labour effects \u00b7 first output: evidence review<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">X-06<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How is the EU AI Act being applied, and what evidence of compliance capacity exists?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">to be admitted in 2027 \u00b7 first output: implementation note<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">X-07<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">How does AI change the cyber threat landscape for critical infrastructure?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">with GS-13 cyber \u00b7 first output: scoping note<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-rd-fid\">X-08<\/span><p class=\"nx-rd-q\">Which AI capabilities in risk management have been tested in real operations?<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">technology capability register \u00b7 first output: rung evidence for 15 functions<\/p><\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-rd-lab nx-rd-mt\">Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-p\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 AI portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">INI-XT01-GRD-01<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Compute\u2013grid\u2013water capacity<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Initiative<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">X-01<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">INI-XT01-CHP-02<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Chip and mineral supply concentration<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Initiative<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">X-02<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">INI-XT01-INF-03<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Inference energy measurement<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Initiative<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">X-03<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">INI-XT01-SAF-04<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Agentic incident evidence<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Initiative<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">X-04<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">INI-XT01-LAB-05<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Measured labour effects<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Initiative<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">X-05<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"ID\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">MSN-XT01-2027-01<\/td><td data-label=\"Object\">Chip\u2013grid compound Universe mission<\/td><td data-label=\"Kind\">Mission<\/td><td data-label=\"Question\">X-02<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">CANDIDATE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab nx-rd-mt\">The pathway<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-p\">The AI edition reads national readiness chapters, the sector reports on energy, water and cyber, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; Canada, Global and Water are issued.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-rd-chain\"><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">National readiness chapters<\/p><p>AI and compute in each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">CANADA ISSUED \u00b7 25 further national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">Sector couplings<\/p><p>GS-02 energy \u00b7 GS-01 water \u00b7 GS-13 cyber<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">GS-01 ISSUED \u00b7 energy and cyber baselines<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">Technology system model<\/p><p>compute, energy, chips, labour, governance<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">Strategic links<\/p><p>SR-13 strategic technology \u00b7 SR-04 minerals \u00b7 SR-10 DPI<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">Nexus Universe<\/p><p>annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">XT-01 report<\/p><p>this series<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">BASELINE ISSUED \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nx-rd-h4\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p>one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-path-meta\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-wat\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-wat-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">X5<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">System chapter<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-wat-h\">Compute and data centres<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">AI capability rests on compute, and compute rests on data centres: buildings full of accelerators that need power, cooling, land and connectivity.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">4\u20135\u00d7<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">a year<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">frontier training compute growth <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-14\" data-nr-ref=\"14\">[14]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">\u224830<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">% a year<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">accelerated-server demand growth <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">&gt;280\u00d7<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">cheaper<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">fixed-level use, 2022\u20132024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">State at baseline<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Training compute<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">four to five times a year since about 2010<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-14\" data-nr-ref=\"14\">[14]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Inference<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">demand rising as use spreads; poorly measured<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Cost<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">cost of fixed-level use collapsing<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Concentration<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">compute concentrated in few providers and regions<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Couplings<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>AIC \u2192 ENE electricity<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 WAT cooling<\/li><li>DAT \u2194 AIC cloud dependence<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>inference energy by use<\/li><li>utilisation of deployed compute<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Compute spot prices, new cluster announcements and efficiency gains in accelerators.<\/p><\/aside><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>GLB Global Systems<\/li><li>GS-02 Energy<\/li><li>GS-13 Cyber<\/li><li>SR-04 Minerals<\/li><li>SR-13 Strategic technology<\/li><li>XT-06 Semiconductors<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes infrastructure at aggregate scale. It assesses no company or facility.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-ene\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-ene-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">X6<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">System chapter<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-ene-h\">Energy and water<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">AI demand lands on particular grids and basins. The global share of electricity is small; local shares at clusters are large and rising.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">415<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">TWh<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">data-centre electricity, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">4.4<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">of US electricity, 2023 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-15\" data-nr-ref=\"15\">[15]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">\u2248945<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">TWh<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">projected for 2030 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">State at baseline<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Electricity<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">about 1.5% of world use<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Local grids<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">connection queues at clusters<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-15\" data-nr-ref=\"15\">[15]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Water<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">cooling demand at water-stressed sites<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-25\" data-nr-ref=\"25\">[25]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-37\" data-nr-ref=\"37\">[37]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Emissions<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">depend on the power mix of each grid<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\" data-nr-ref=\"1\">[1]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-22\" data-nr-ref=\"22\">[22]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Couplings<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>AIC \u2192 ENE load growth<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 WAT cooling demand<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 AIC power availability<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>grid capacity at clusters<\/li><li>water use outside the United States<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Grid connection queues, local electricity prices near clusters and water permits for new sites.<\/p><\/aside><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>GLB Global Systems<\/li><li>GS-02 Energy<\/li><li>GS-13 Cyber<\/li><li>SR-04 Minerals<\/li><li>SR-13 Strategic technology<\/li><li>XT-06 Semiconductors<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes physical demand. It assesses no company, utility or grid operator.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-foo\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-foo-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">X7<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">System chapter<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-foo-h\">Chips and minerals<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">The AI supply chain is among the most concentrated in the world, from mineral refining to chip fabrication.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">92<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">leading-edge logic capacity in Taiwan, 2019 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-17\" data-nr-ref=\"17\">[17]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">2023<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">controls<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">gallium and germanium export controls <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-19\" data-nr-ref=\"19\">[19]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">2022<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">controls<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">advanced-chip export rules <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-29\" data-nr-ref=\"29\">[29]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">State at baseline<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Fabrication<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">leading-edge capacity in one region<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-17\" data-nr-ref=\"17\">[17]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Minerals<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">refining concentrated in a few countries<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-18\" data-nr-ref=\"18\">[18]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Trade controls<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">chips, tools and minerals since 2022<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-19\" data-nr-ref=\"19\">[19]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-29\" data-nr-ref=\"29\">[29]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">New capacity<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">fabs under construction elsewhere<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-17\" data-nr-ref=\"17\">[17]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Couplings<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>MIN \u2192 AIC chips<\/li><li>TRD \u2192 AIC controls<\/li><li>WAT and ENE \u2192 fabs<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>current capacity shares by node<\/li><li>time to recover from a disruption<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Export-control notices, chip lead times and new fab completions.<\/p><\/aside><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>GLB Global Systems<\/li><li>GS-02 Energy<\/li><li>GS-13 Cyber<\/li><li>SR-04 Minerals<\/li><li>SR-13 Strategic technology<\/li><li>XT-06 Semiconductors<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes supply-chain structure. It assesses no company or government.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-hlt\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-hlt-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">X11<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">System chapter<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-hlt-h\">Economy and workforce<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">AI is spreading through work faster than evidence on its effects. Exposure is broad; whether it brings augmentation or substitution is the open question.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">78<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">organisations using AI, 2024 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">25\u201340<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">of jobs exposed <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-16\" data-nr-ref=\"16\">[16]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-32\" data-nr-ref=\"32\">[32]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">25 \u00b7 3.3<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">per cent<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">employment exposed \u00b7 in the highest exposure category <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">State at baseline<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Adoption<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">78% of organisations in 2024<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Exposure<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">a quarter to two-fifths of jobs<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-16\" data-nr-ref=\"16\">[16]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-32\" data-nr-ref=\"32\">[32]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Job exposure<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">About one in four jobs exposed to generative AI; 3.3% in the highest category<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-20\" data-nr-ref=\"20\">[20]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Measured effects<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">limited causal evidence so far<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\">, <\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25ce<\/span>EXPERT INPUT<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Couplings<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>AIC \u2192 labour tasks and skills<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 FIN productivity and investment<\/li><li>labour \u2192 HLT income and wellbeing<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>measured employment effects by occupation<\/li><li>access to retraining<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Labour-market statistics by exposed occupation and the uptake of retraining programmes.<\/p><\/aside><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>GLB Global Systems<\/li><li>GS-02 Energy<\/li><li>GS-13 Cyber<\/li><li>SR-04 Minerals<\/li><li>SR-13 Strategic technology<\/li><li>XT-06 Semiconductors<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes labour exposure. It makes no statement on any employer or labour policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-bio\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-bio-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">X13<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">System chapter<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-x-bio-h\">Safety, security and failure modes<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Harms are rising with use. Agentic systems that act on their own add new failure modes, while incident evidence remains thin.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-nums\"><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">233<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">incidents<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">reported in 2024, a record <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">+56<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">%<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">on 2023 <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a><\/span><\/div><div><span class=\"nx-rd-num-v\">96<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-u\">experts<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-num-n\">in the International AI Safety Report <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-3\" data-nr-ref=\"3\">[3]<\/a><\/span><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">State at baseline<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Incidents<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">record 233 reported in 2024<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\" data-nr-ref=\"2\">[2]<\/a> <a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-27\" data-nr-ref=\"27\">[27]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Risk taxonomy<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">malicious use, malfunction, systemic risks<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-3\" data-nr-ref=\"3\">[3]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Cyber<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">AI changes attack and defence<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\"><a class=\"nx-rd-ref\" href=\"#nx-nr-xt-01-ref-21\" data-nr-ref=\"21\">[21]<\/a><\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"inferred\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25b2<\/span>INFERRED<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Component\">Agentic failures<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">little systematic evidence<\/td><td data-label=\"Evidence\">, <\/td><td data-label=\"Status\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"expert-input\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25ce<\/span>EXPERT INPUT<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Couplings<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>AIC \u2192 DAT cyber exposure<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 FIN automated decisions<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 information integrity<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/p><ul class=\"nx-rd-list\"><li>agentic incident taxonomy<\/li><li>evaluation results for deployed agents<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Incident reports involving autonomous agents and evaluation results published with new model releases.<\/p><\/aside><ul class=\"nx-rd-chips\"><li>GLB Global Systems<\/li><li>GS-02 Energy<\/li><li>GS-13 Cyber<\/li><li>SR-04 Minerals<\/li><li>SR-13 Strategic technology<\/li><li>XT-06 Semiconductors<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes risks at aggregate level. It certifies no system and assesses no developer.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-process\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-process-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">P<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Process<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-process-h\">How this edition is made, released and corrected.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Press play to run the release step by step in the five pillar lanes; select a step to read it.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><figure class=\"nx-lp\" data-ra-lesson=\"nr-release-gcri\" data-lp-json=\"{&quot;id&quot;:&quot;nr-release-gcri&quot;,&quot;constants&quot;:{},&quot;params&quot;:[],&quot;outputs&quot;:[],&quot;steps&quot;:[{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Evidence arrives from the pillars&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Nexus Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Nexus Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site's.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;obs&quot;,&quot;aar&quot;,&quot;con&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The cut is sealed&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;cut&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;obs&quot;,&quot;cut&quot;],[&quot;aar&quot;,&quot;cut&quot;],[&quot;con&quot;,&quot;cut&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The edition is assembled&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;asm&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;cut&quot;,&quot;asm&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The keys turn&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;key&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;asm&quot;,&quot;key&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;The gate opens&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;gate&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;key&quot;,&quot;gate&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Signed and deposited&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;zen&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;gate&quot;,&quot;zen&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Published on five sites&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Only then do the five Nexus Reports sites show the edition as published, each reading it through its own lens.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;web&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;zen&quot;,&quot;web&quot;]]},{&quot;title&quot;:&quot;Corrections go to Standards&quot;,&quot;narration&quot;:&quot;Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.&quot;,&quot;run&quot;:[&quot;fb&quot;],&quot;flow&quot;:[[&quot;web&quot;,&quot;fb&quot;]]}],&quot;stepMs&quot;:3000,&quot;chart&quot;:null}\" tabindex=\"0\" aria-label=\"Lesson: How one quarterly edition reaches the open record\"><div class=\"nx-lp-head\"><h3 class=\"nx-lp-title\">How one quarterly edition reaches the open record<\/h3><p class=\"nx-lp-claim\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-lp-canvas\"><svg class=\"nx-figure nx-ui nx-dag nx-lp-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 1610 406\" data-ra-lesson-canvas=\"true\" data-w=\"1610\" data-h=\"406\" data-wb=\"xl\" role=\"img\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-lp-nr-release-gcri-t nx-lp-nr-release-gcri-d\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><title id=\"nx-lp-nr-release-gcri-t\">How one quarterly edition reaches the open record<\/title><desc id=\"nx-lp-nr-release-gcri-d\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/desc><\/svg><\/div><div class=\"nx-lp-bar\" role=\"toolbar\" aria-label=\"Lesson transport\"><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn nx-lp-play\" data-lp-act=\"play\" aria-pressed=\"false\" aria-label=\"Play\"><svg viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M2 1.5v9l8-4.5z\"\/><\/svg><svg viewBox=\"0 0 12 12\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M2 1.5h3v9H2zm5 0h3v9H7z\"\/><\/svg><\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn\" data-lp-act=\"prev\" aria-label=\"Previous step\">&#8249;<\/button><span class=\"nx-lp-scrub-slot\" data-lp-scrub-slot=\"7\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"nx-lp-scrub-fill\" data-lp-fill=\"true\"><\/span><\/span><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn\" data-lp-act=\"next\" aria-label=\"Next step\">&#8250;<\/button><span class=\"nx-lp-counter\" data-lp-counter=\"true\">1 \/ 8<\/span><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-btn nx-lp-speed\" data-lp-act=\"speed\" aria-label=\"Speed 1x\">1x<\/button><\/div><p class=\"nx-lp-narr\"><span data-lp-narr=\"true\">Nexus Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Nexus Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site's.<\/span> <cite class=\"nx-lp-cite\" data-lp-cite=\"true\" hidden><\/cite><\/p><ol class=\"nx-lp-steps\" aria-label=\"Steps\"><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"0\" aria-current=\"step\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">1<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"1\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">2<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">The cut is sealed<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"2\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">3<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">The edition is assembled<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"3\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">4<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">The keys turn<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"4\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">5<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">The gate opens<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"5\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">6<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Signed and deposited<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"6\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">7<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Published on five sites<\/span><\/button><\/li><li><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-lp-step\" data-lp-step=\"7\" aria-current=\"false\" data-done=\"false\"><span class=\"nx-lp-step-n\">8<\/span><span class=\"nx-lp-step-t\">Corrections go to Standards<\/span><\/button><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nx-lp-io\"><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-lp-cap\"><p class=\"nx-lp-shows\">The quarterly release in the five pillar lanes: what Foundry and Universe hand to Reports, what Reports seals, reviews, signs, deposits and publishes, and what returns to Standards.<\/p><p class=\"nx-lp-honesty\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record.<\/p><\/figcaption><p class=\"nx-lp-src\"><span>Sources: <\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Nexus Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Nexus Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">How a contribution reaches this edition, step by step, is on the contribute page and the front page of this site. <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/\">Contribute <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-open-science\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-open-science-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">OS<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Open science<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-open-science-h\">This edition's open record.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Identifiers, licences and the bundle at deposit; credit by ORCID, ROR and CRediT; the open indexes; and a deposit prefilled for a contribution to this edition.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition's open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-XTC-XT-01-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for Nexus material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualization, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20and%20Agentic%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20and%20Agentic%20Systems&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20and%20Agentic%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20and%20Agentic%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Artificial%20Intelligence%20and%20Agentic%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\" target=\"_blank\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on AI and Agentic Systems 2026.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Exponential Technology Report \u00b7 XT-01&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexus-reports-gcri&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Nexus Exponential Technology Report \u00b7 XT-01&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-outputs\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-outputs-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">O<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Outputs<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-outputs-h\">This edition in every format, with where it came from.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">What is on this site now, what ships with the signed bundle at release, and what is not recorded for this edition; then the chain the outputs come from and how to cite each one.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-state=\"here\"><th scope=\"row\">Web edition<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">HTML<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/\">Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/a><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><\/tr><tr data-state=\"release\"><th scope=\"row\">Print edition<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">PDF<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><\/tr><tr data-state=\"here\"><th scope=\"row\">Indicator data<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/#nx-nr-xt-01-outputs\">15 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/a><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/td><\/tr><tr data-state=\"here\"><th scope=\"row\">Figures<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/xt-01\/#nx-nr-xt-01-surface\">4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/a><\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\">FIG-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/td><\/tr><tr data-state=\"none\"><th scope=\"row\">Slides<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">PDF<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr data-state=\"none\"><th scope=\"row\">Evidence brief<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr data-state=\"release\"><th scope=\"row\">Dataset with DOI<small class=\"nx-nr-lib-fmt-k\">DataCite<\/small><\/th><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td class=\"nx-rd-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two nx-rd-mt\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Provenance<\/p><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>data\/editions\/XT-01.json, the content pack the print and web editions are built from<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Nexus Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Cite it<\/p><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>NR-CIT-1<\/dt><dd>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Exponential Technology Report 2026, Artificial Intelligence and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition. Nexus Reports series \u00b7 Exponential Technology Series XT-01 \u00b7 Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 v1.0.0 \u00b7 GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026 \u00b7 NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 \u00b7 DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Short citation<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus AI and Agentic Systems Report 2026, Baseline Edition, NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE.<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>A finding<\/dt><dd>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus AI and Agentic Systems Report 2026, Baseline Edition, finding NRF-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001, v1.0.0.<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>A figure<\/dt><dd>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus AI and Agentic Systems Report 2026, Baseline Edition, Figure n.m (FIG-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CH-NNN), v1.0.0.<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>A data table<\/dt><dd>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), AI baseline indicator set 2026, NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1. GCRI, 2026.<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab nx-rd-mt\">Indicator data<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><caption class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Global baseline indicator set<\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Data-centre electricity use<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">\u2248415<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">TWh<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[1]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Share of world electricity<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">\u22481.5<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">%<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[1]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Projected data-centre use<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">\u2248945<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">TWh<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2030<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"scenario\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25cb<\/span>SCENARIO<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[1]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">US data-centre share of electricity<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">4.4<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">%<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2023<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[15]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Frontier training compute growth<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">4\u20135\u00d7<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">a year<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2010\u20132024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[14]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Fall in cost of fixed-level use<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">&gt;280\u00d7<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">fold<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2022\u20132024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[2]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Organisations using AI<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">78<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">%<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[2]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Corporate AI investment<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">\u2248252<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">US$ billion<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[2]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Reported AI incidents<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">233<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">incidents<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[2]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Leading-edge logic capacity in Taiwan<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">92<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">%<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2019<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[17]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Jobs exposed to AI, IMF<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">\u224840<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">%<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[16]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Jobs exposed to generative AI, ILO<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">\u224825<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">%<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2025<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[32]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Employment exposed to generative AI<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">25<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">%<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2025<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[20]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">Employment in the highest exposure category<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">3.3<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">%<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2025<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[20]<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Indicator\">People offline<\/td><td data-label=\"Value\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">2.6<\/td><td data-label=\"Unit\">billion<\/td><td data-label=\"Year\">2024<\/td><td data-label=\"State\"><span class=\"nx-rd-st\" data-st=\"reported\"><span class=\"nx-rd-glyph\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u25a1<\/span>REPORTED<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">[34]<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-pillars\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-pillars-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">PL<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Six pillars<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-pillars-h\">Where this edition sits among the six pillars.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">Nexus Foundry seals the evidence and Nexus Universe tests it; Nexus Reports publishes it; Nexus Standards takes its corrections and Risk Academy teaches from it.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-pl-lanes\"><figure class=\"nx-pl-figure\"><svg class=\"nx-figure nx-ui nx-pl-lanes-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 1200 616\" role=\"img\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-pl-xt-01-t nx-nr-pl-xt-01-d\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><title id=\"nx-nr-pl-xt-01-t\">AI and Agentic Systems 2026 among the six pillars<\/title><desc id=\"nx-nr-pl-xt-01-d\">F03 Sealed observations and indicator series: Foundry; F04 After-action and scenario findings for: Universe; F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter: Foundry; Applied in editions: Standards; XT-01 edition: Reports; F06 Method and correction findings as change: Standards; F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year: Universe; Taught in the open: Academy<\/desc><\/svg><figcaption class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-01 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><ol class=\"nx-pl-steps\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>XT-01 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> AI and Agentic Systems 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Nexus Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Nexus Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nexus Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Nexus Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Universe to Nexus Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Foundry to Nexus Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Nexus Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Reports to Nexus Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-corrections\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-corrections-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">C<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Corrections log<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-corrections-h\">Versions and notices.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-rd-stand\">A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable.<\/p><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition's current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">XT-01<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-references\" data-ground=\"console\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-references-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">R<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">References \u00b7 NR-CIT-1<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-references-h\">40 sources this edition rests on.<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><ol class=\"nx-rd-reflist\"><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-1\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[1]<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Energy and AI. World Energy Outlook Special Report. IEA, Paris, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-2\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[2]<\/span><span>Stanford Institute for Human-Centered Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Index Report 2025. Stanford HAI, Stanford, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-3\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[3]<\/span><span>Y. Bengio (ed.), International AI Safety Report. Department for Science, Innovation and Technology, London, January 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-4\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[4]<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council of the European Union (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act). Official Journal L, 12 July 2024, as amended.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-5\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[5]<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework (AI RMF 1.0), NIST AI 100-1. NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-6\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[6]<\/span><span>NIST (ed.), Artificial Intelligence Risk Management Framework: Generative Artificial Intelligence Profile, NIST AI 600-1. NIST, Gaithersburg, MD, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-7\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[7]<\/span><span>ISO and IEC (eds.), ISO\/IEC 42001:2023, Information technology, Artificial intelligence, Management system. ISO, Geneva, 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-8\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[8]<\/span><span>OECD (ed.), Recommendation of the Council on Artificial Intelligence, OECD\/LEGAL\/0449, as amended in 2024. OECD, Paris, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-9\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[9]<\/span><span>UNESCO (ed.), Recommendation on the Ethics of Artificial Intelligence. UNESCO, Paris, 2021.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-10\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[10]<\/span><span>Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law, CETS No. 225. Council of Europe, Vilnius, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-11\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[11]<\/span><span>United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Pact for the Future, resolution 79\/1, annex I: Global Digital Compact. United Nations, New York, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-12\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[12]<\/span><span>United Nations General Assembly (ed.), Resolution establishing the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance. United Nations, New York, August 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-13\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[13]<\/span><span>UK Government (ed.), The Bletchley Declaration by Countries Attending the AI Safety Summit, 1\u20132 November 2023. London, 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-14\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[14]<\/span><span>J. Sevilla and E. Rold\u00e1n, \u201cTraining compute of frontier AI models grows by 4\u20135x per year.\u201d Epoch AI, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-15\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[15]<\/span><span>A. Shehabi, S. J. Smith, A. Hubbard et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report. Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, CA, December 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-16\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[16]<\/span><span>M. Cazzaniga, F. Jaumotte, L. Li et al., \u201cGen-AI: Artificial Intelligence and the Future of Work,\u201d IMF Staff Discussion Note SDN\/2024\/001. IMF, Washington, DC, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-17\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[17]<\/span><span>Semiconductor Industry Association and Boston Consulting Group (eds.), Strengthening the Global Semiconductor Supply Chain in an Uncertain Era. SIA and BCG, Washington, DC, 2021.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-18\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[18]<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-19\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[19]<\/span><span>Ministry of Commerce of the People\u2019s Republic of China (ed.), Announcement on implementing export control on gallium- and germanium-related items. MOFCOM, Beijing, July 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-20\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[20]<\/span><span>P. Gmyrek, J. Berg, K. Kami\u0144ski et al., Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO Working Paper 140, International Labour Organization, Geneva, May 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-21\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[21]<\/span><span>ENISA (ed.), ENISA Threat Landscape 2024. European Union Agency for Cybersecurity, Athens, September 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-22\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[22]<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2025. Ember, London, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-23\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[23]<\/span><span>E. Strubell, A. Ganesh and A. McCallum, \u201cEnergy and policy considerations for deep learning in NLP,\u201d in Proceedings of the 57th Annual Meeting of the Association for Computational Linguistics, pp. 3645\u20133650, 2019.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-24\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[24]<\/span><span>D. Patterson, J. Gonzalez, Q. Le et al., \u201cCarbon emissions and large neural network training,\u201d arXiv:2104.10350 (preprint, not peer-reviewed), 2021.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-25\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[25]<\/span><span>P. Li, J. Yang, M. A. Islam and S. Ren, \u201cMaking AI less \u2018thirsty\u2019: uncovering and addressing the secret water footprint of AI models,\u201d arXiv:2304.03271 (preprint), 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-26\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[26]<\/span><span>R. Bommasani, D. A. Hudson, E. Adeli et al., \u201cOn the opportunities and risks of foundation models,\u201d arXiv:2108.07258 (preprint), 2021.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-27\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[27]<\/span><span>Responsible AI Collaborative (ed.), AI Incident Database. incidentdatabase.ai, retrieved 2026-09-30.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-28\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[28]<\/span><span>OECD (ed.), OECD AI Incidents and Hazards Monitor. OECD.AI, retrieved 2026-09-30.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-29\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[29]<\/span><span>U.S. Department of Commerce, Bureau of Industry and Security (ed.), Implementation of additional export controls: certain advanced computing and semiconductor manufacturing items. Federal Register, October 2022, as updated.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-30\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[30]<\/span><span>G7 Hiroshima AI Process (ed.), Hiroshima Process International Code of Conduct for Organizations Developing Advanced AI Systems. G7, Hiroshima, 2023.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-31\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[31]<\/span><span>UN High-level Advisory Body on Artificial Intelligence (ed.), Governing AI for Humanity: Final Report. United Nations, New York, September 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-32\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[32]<\/span><span>International Labour Organization (ed.), Generative AI and Jobs: A Refined Global Index of Occupational Exposure. ILO, Geneva, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-33\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[33]<\/span><span>UNCTAD (ed.), Technology and Innovation Report 2025: Inclusive Artificial Intelligence for Development. UNCTAD, Geneva, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-34\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[34]<\/span><span>ITU (ed.), Measuring Digital Development: Facts and Figures 2024. International Telecommunication Union, Geneva, 2024.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-35\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[35]<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Reports, The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Nexus Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-36\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[36]<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Global Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-GLOBAL-SYSTEMS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-37\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[37]<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Global Water Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-SECTOR-WATER-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-38\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[38]<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Nexus Canada Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. NR-COUNTRY-CAN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-39\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[39]<\/span><span>International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-ref-40\"><span class=\"nx-rd-refn\">[40]<\/span><span>IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures. ISSB, London, 2023.<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-rd-part\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-record\" data-ground=\"paper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-xt-01-record-h\"><header class=\"nx-rd-part-head\"><span class=\"nx-rd-numeral\" aria-hidden=\"true\">PR<\/span><div><p class=\"nx-rd-kicker\">Publication record<\/p><h2 class=\"nx-rd-h2\" id=\"nx-nr-xt-01-record-h\">Who publishes it, on which terms.<\/h2><\/div><\/header><div class=\"nx-rd-part-body\"><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Publication<\/p><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Nexus Exponential Technology Report 2026, AI and Agentic Systems, Baseline Edition<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Nexus Reports \u00b7 Exponential Technology Series XT-01<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><div><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Publisher<\/p><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Nexus Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Colophon<\/p><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 __PAGES__ pages \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Nexus Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Nexus Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"evidence\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Nexus Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><p class=\"nx-rd-lab nx-rd-mt\">Release path for this version<\/p><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">Release path for this version<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td data-label=\"When\">October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">Steward review<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td data-label=\"When\">Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">Approval<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td data-label=\"When\">before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">Deposit<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td data-label=\"When\">at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">Succession<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">the 2027 AI edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td data-label=\"When\">2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nx-rd-two\"><div><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nx-rd-kv\"><div><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Nexus Registry correction pathway<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nx-rd-call\" data-kind=\"boundary\"><p class=\"nx-rd-lab\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><footer class=\"nx-rd-folio\"><span class=\"nx-rd-dash\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-word\">Nexus Reports<\/span><span>NR-XTECH-AI-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><span>Evidence close 30 September 2026<\/span><span>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, publisher of record<\/span><span class=\"nx-rd-hostmark\" data-host=\"gcri\">The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation<\/span><\/footer><section class=\"nx-section\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-nx-xlinks=\"5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-xl-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-xt-01\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Across the Consortium<\/span><h2 id=\"nx-xl-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-xt-01\" class=\"nx-h3 nx-mt-2\">The same subject across the Consortium.<\/h2><ul class=\"nx-dest nx-mt-3\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" 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