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\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class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The State of Brazil\u2019s Interdependent Systems<\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">BRA<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Country Systems Risk and Resilience<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Brazil 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\">The State of Brazil\u2019s Interdependent Systems<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut NQ-BRA-2026-Q0-1<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Brazil <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Brazil\u2019s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Brazil\u2019s risk runs through water, forest and fire<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Strong El Ni\u00f1o drought across rivers, hydropower and fire<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\">Brazil 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Brazil (Brasil) enters 2027 with 214.2 million residents<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>, an electricity system that was 86.8% renewable in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup> and a sharp fall in forest loss. Gross greenhouse-gas emissions fell 16.7% in 2024 to 2,145 Mt CO\u2082e, driven by lower <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a>, while net emissions of 1.49 Gt CO\u2082e remain above the 0.85 to 1.05 Gt range set for 2035<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. The Amazon deforestation estimate for August 2024 to July 2025 was 5,796 km\u00b2, 11.08% below the year before<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>. Water, drought and fire are the main stressors. The Negro River at Manaus reached record lows in 2023 and 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup>, about 30 million hectares burned in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>, and the 2024 floods in Rio Grande do Sul affected about 2.4 million people, with effects estimated at R$88.9 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>. Hydropower fell 4.8% in 2025 while gas generation rose 22.7%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>. Hunger has eased: Brazil stayed outside the FAO Hunger Map<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>, and 23.1% of people lived below the poverty line in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>. Dengue caused 5,972 confirmed deaths in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Brazil\u2019s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, maps the couplings through which drought, flood, fire and price shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. Several values could not be bound at evidence close and are shown as designed empty states, each naming the source that would fill it. The edition ranks nothing and decides nothing.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the Brazil baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">2,145 Mt CO\u2082e gross in 2024, 16.7% below 2023; 1.49 Gt net.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Where do emissions stand?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A net cut of 59 to 67% below 2005, or 0.85 to 1.05 Gt CO\u2082e.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What is the 2035 target?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">PRODES estimate 5,796 km\u00b2, 11.08% below the year before; fire burned 12.7 million hectares nationally in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How is the Amazon changing?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">86.8% renewable, but hydropower is about half of generation and fell 4.8% in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How secure is power?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 2.4 million people affected and R$88.9 billion in estimated effects in one state.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What did the 2024 floods show?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Harvest estimate of 360.8 Mt, 2.4% above the previous crop year; Brazil outside the FAO Hunger Map.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How secure is food?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Dengue is bound; heat-attributable deaths were not bound at evidence close. Ministry of Health<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is heat now a health hazard?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not bound<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A strong El Ni\u00f1o drought across Amazon rivers, hydropower and fire. SCN-BRA-DRT-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will Q1 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods affected about 2.4 million people in 478 of the state\u2019s 497 municipalities, and the joint assessment estimates their effects at R$88.9 billion, 69% of it in productive sectors.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-fig1-t\">Estimated effects of the 2024 floods by sector group (R$ billion)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Productive sectors<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">61<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Social sectors<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"31.1\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">19<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Infrastructure<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"11.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">7<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Environment<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"2.6\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1.6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: World Bank, IDB and ECLAC Damage and Loss Assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. Total R$88.9 billion.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">Floods in one state hit production, housing and lifelines at once. The assessment reports that visible damage is only about half of the economic effect, with the rest in lost output and cascading losses to small firms and farms<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. The state\u2019s civil defence recorded 185 confirmed deaths, 23 people missing and a peak of 581,638 displaced people<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">214.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>population, 1 July 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>aged 65 or over, 2022 (derived)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2,145<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt CO\u2082e<\/span><p>gross emissions, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">86.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>renewable electricity, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>GDP growth, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">27<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">federative units<\/span><p>26 states and the Federal District<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports a coupled reading of Brazil\u2019s risk: drought, flood and fire share one hydrological cycle, and power, food and logistics depend on it.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people risk arrives as a flood, a smoke-filled season or a dengue wave.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. General government gross debt was 93.3% of GDP in 2025, climate-risk rules for banks have applied since 2022, and an emissions trading system has been legislated.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Brazil has world-class monitoring of forests and a very clean grid, and thinner evidence on reserves, continuity and heat health.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the state of Brazil\u2019s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a national <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/glossary\/risk-assessment\/\" data-tgl=\"Nexus Standards glossary\">risk assessment<\/a>, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Estimativas da popula\u00e7\u00e3o residente no Brasil e unidades da federa\u00e7\u00e3o com data de refer\u00eancia em 1\u00ba de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica (ed.), Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional 2026: Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil\u2019s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Bras\u00edlia, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Observat\u00f3rio do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: An\u00e1lise das emiss\u00f5es brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implica\u00e7\u00f5es para as metas clim\u00e1ticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observat\u00f3rio do Clima, S\u00e3o Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia Legal para 2025 \u00e9 de 5.796 km\u00b2, Nota t\u00e9cnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Servi\u00e7o Geol\u00f3gico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, \u201cDrought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,\u201d October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., \u201cThe new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,\u201d Scientific <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a>, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), \u201cBID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atua\u00e7\u00e3o tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,\u201d press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Bras\u00edlia, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), \u201cSitua\u00e7\u00e3o nos munic\u00edpios,\u201d SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), S\u00edntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil, \u201cCasos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milh\u00f5es; mortes somam 5,9 mil,\u201d January 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edi\u00e7\u00e3o do Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, \u201c\u00c1rea queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milh\u00f5es de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,\u201d July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11\u00ba Levantamento da Safra de Gr\u00e3os 2025\/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil. CONAB, Bras\u00edlia. Observation year: 2025\/26 (agency estimate).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Censo Demogr\u00e1fico 2022: popula\u00e7\u00e3o residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cs-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), \u201cPIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilh\u00f5es,\u201d Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\">Brazil 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Brazil\u2019s risk runs through water, forest and fire<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no state.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>8 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>21 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is Brazil\u2019s risk concentrated, and in which <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?<\/li><li>Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?<\/li><li>What must the 2027 programme measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five system chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Brazil is a continental country with five macro-regions, 27 federative units and 214.2 million residents<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Its <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> are large, varied and tied to the same climate drivers. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: a hydrological cycle that swings between flood and drought, a forest and savanna estate under pressure from land conversion and fire, and an energy and food economy that depends on both.<\/p><p>The hydrological swing is now visible in records. The Negro River at Manaus fell to 12.70 m in October 2023 and to 12.66 m in October 2024, record lows in a gauge series that begins in 1902<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup>. In April and May 2024, floods in Rio Grande do Sul affected about 2.4 million people, and the joint World Bank, IDB and ECLAC assessment put their effects at R$88.9 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>. The regional climate report for 2025 describes record heat, persistent drought and extreme rainfall across the region<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The land layer is changing in the right direction, with limits. PRODES estimated Amazon <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> at 5,796 km\u00b2 for August 2024 to July 2025, and MapBiomas counted deforestation below 1 million hectares nationally for the first time in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>. Fire remains the larger swing: about 30 million hectares burned in 2024, and about 12.7 million in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>. Gross emissions fell 16.7% in 2024, yet net emissions stay above the 2035 range<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The energy layer is among the cleanest in the world by share, and it is hydrological. Renewables supplied 86.8% of electricity in 2025, hydropower provided about half of generation, and when hydropower fell 4.8% gas generation rose 22.7%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>. Food is the other large economic layer: the 2025\/26 grain harvest is estimated at 360.8 Mt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>, and Brazil remained outside the FAO Hunger Map<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Beneath these sit population and finance. Life expectancy is 76.6 years and the share aged 65 or over was 10.9% in 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. General government gross debt was 93.3% of GDP in 2025 on IMF definitions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup>, which bears on how disasters are financed.<\/p><p>This edition therefore reads Brazil\u2019s risk as a property of the couplings between rivers, forests, power and food. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-fig1-t\">How far is Brazil from its 2035 range? Emissions and target (Mt CO\u2082e)<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Net emissions in 2024 were about 440 Mt above the upper end of the 2035 range and about 640 Mt above the lower end. The comparison mixes the SEEG series with the inventory-based target, so it is indicative (INFERRED)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">2005 net (inventory)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">2560<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2024 gross (SEEG)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"83.8\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">2145<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2024 net (SEEG)<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"58.2\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1490<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2035 range, upper end<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"41.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1050<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">442.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt CO\u2082e<\/span><p>energy-sector emissions, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">249<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt CO\u2082e<\/span><p>net land-use emissions, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">626<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt CO\u2082e<\/span><p>agriculture, gross, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2050<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">climate neutrality<\/span><p>stated goal<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The Brazil matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nuclear cooling \u00b7 hydro<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">drinking water<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 treatment<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fuel \u00b7 fertiliser \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">facility power \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">reservoirs \u00b7 land use<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">withdrawals \u00b7 nutrients<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">biofuel feedstock<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour \u00b7 disease<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fire on lines \u00b7 biomass<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination \u00b7 soils<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses \u00b7 smoke<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Drought lowers river flows and hydropower, and thermal dispatch rises.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> hydro \u22124.8%, gas +22.7%, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Record river lows interrupt river transport.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> Negro River, 2023 and 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 BIO \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Drought and fire raise smoke and heat load on health services.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> \u224830 million ha burned, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 INF \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Floods destroy assets and output, and fall on public budgets.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> Rio Grande do Sul, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">BIO \u2192 CLI \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Forest loss weakens regional moisture recycling that supports crops.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> literature<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.4<\/span><span>Reinforcing loops<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Loop<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First direction<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Second direction<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to biodiversity: flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/td><td>Biodiversity to water: regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Food to biodiversity: land conversion<\/td><td>Biodiversity to food: pollination \u00b7 soils<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"3\">A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Estimativas da popula\u00e7\u00e3o residente no Brasil e unidades da federa\u00e7\u00e3o com data de refer\u00eancia em 1\u00ba de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Servi\u00e7o Geol\u00f3gico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, \u201cDrought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,\u201d October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., \u201cThe new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,\u201d Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), \u201cBID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atua\u00e7\u00e3o tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,\u201d press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Bras\u00edlia, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), \u201cSitua\u00e7\u00e3o nos munic\u00edpios,\u201d SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia Legal para 2025 \u00e9 de 5.796 km\u00b2, Nota t\u00e9cnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edi\u00e7\u00e3o do Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, \u201c\u00c1rea queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milh\u00f5es de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,\u201d July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil\u2019s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Bras\u00edlia, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Observat\u00f3rio do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: An\u00e1lise das emiss\u00f5es brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implica\u00e7\u00f5es para as metas clim\u00e1ticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observat\u00f3rio do Clima, S\u00e3o Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica (ed.), Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional 2026: Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11\u00ba Levantamento da Safra de Gr\u00e3os 2025\/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil. CONAB, Bras\u00edlia. Observation year: 2025\/26 (agency estimate).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Censo Demogr\u00e1fico 2022: popula\u00e7\u00e3o residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), T\u00e1buas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), \u201cIMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,\u201d Press Release No. 26\/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>T. E. Lovejoy and C. Nobre, \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h68\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 planet.biome-tipping.amazon-dieback\" data-tk=\"Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping \u00b7 Biome tipping elements\" data-td=\"Large-scale conversion of Amazon rainforest to degraded forest or savanna as drought, fire and clearing break its moisture recycling, releasing carbon and drying South American rainfall.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H68\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/planet\/\" data-txl=\"Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping\">Amazon tipping<\/a> point,\u201d Science Advances, vol. 4, no. 2, eaat2340, 2018. Observation year: 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., \u201cCritical transitions in the Amazon forest system,\u201d Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555\u2013564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c1-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>R. Raj\u00e3o, B. Soares-Filho, F. Nunes et al., \u201cThe rotten apples of Brazil\u2019s agribusiness,\u201d Science, vol. 369, pp. 246\u2013248, 2020. Observation year: 2020.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c1-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\">Brazil 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>19 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">The 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods affected about 2.4 million people in 478 of the state\u2019s 497 municipalities, and the joint assessment estimates their effects at R$88.9 billion, 69% of it in productive sectors.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-fig1-t\">Estimated effects of the 2024 floods by sector group (R$ billion)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Productive sectors<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">61<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Social sectors<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"31.1\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">19<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Infrastructure<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"11.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">7<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Environment<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"2.6\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">1.6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: World Bank, IDB and ECLAC Damage and Loss Assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. Total R$88.9 billion.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Floods in one state hit production, housing and lifelines at once. The assessment reports that visible damage is only about half of the economic effect, with the rest in lost output and cascading losses to small firms and farms<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. The state\u2019s civil defence recorded 185 confirmed deaths, 23 people missing and a peak of 581,638 displaced people<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Progress on levees and pumping, the next rainy season in the south, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> coverage and updated master plans would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Climate forcing<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Gross greenhouse-gas emissions fell 16.7% in 2024 to 2,145 Mt CO\u2082e, led by lower land-use change; net emissions were 1.49 Gt CO\u2082e. SEEG is a civil-society estimate, not the official inventory.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The 2035 target is a net reduction of 59 to 67% below 2005, equal to 0.85 to 1.05 Gt CO\u2082e on the latest inventory data.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Biodiversity<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-003\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The PRODES estimate for the Amazon was 5,796 km\u00b2 for August 2024 to July 2025, 11.08% below the previous year; MapBiomas counted 984,794 hectares lost nationally in 2025, 20.6% fewer than in 2024.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-004\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-BIO-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 30 million hectares burned in 2024 and about 12.7 million in 2025, against an annual mean of 18.4 million.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-ENE-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Renewables supplied 86.8% of electricity in 2025. Hydropower fell 4.8% to 401.4 TWh while gas generation rose 22.7%, and wind and solar together supplied 26.4%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Water<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The Negro River at Manaus fell to 12.70 m in October 2023 and to 12.66 m in October 2024, record lows in a gauge record from 1902.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The 2024 Rio Grande do Sul floods affected about 2.4 million people in 478 of 497 municipalities and caused 185 confirmed deaths; effects are estimated at R$88.9 billion.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Food<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The 2025\/26 grain harvest is estimated at 360.8 Mt on 83.5 million hectares, and agricultural value added grew 11.7% in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Brazil stayed outside the FAO Hunger Map; moderate or severe <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> was 9.6% in 2023 to 2025, and 3.2% of households were in severe insecurity in 2024.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Health<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Dengue caused 6,484,890 probable cases and 5,972 confirmed deaths in 2024; WHO had already counted 6.3 million suspected cases in Brazil by 30 April. Life expectancy reached 76.6 years.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">General government gross debt was 93.3% of GDP in 2025 on IMF definitions, with the policy rate at 14.0% at end-2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.9<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a strong El Ni\u00f1o drought that lowers Amazon rivers and hydropower while fire and thermal dispatch rise together. \u00a79.3<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), \u201cBID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atua\u00e7\u00e3o tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,\u201d press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Bras\u00edlia, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), \u201cSitua\u00e7\u00e3o nos munic\u00edpios,\u201d SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Observat\u00f3rio do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: An\u00e1lise das emiss\u00f5es brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implica\u00e7\u00f5es para as metas clim\u00e1ticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observat\u00f3rio do Clima, S\u00e3o Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil\u2019s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Bras\u00edlia, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia Legal para 2025 \u00e9 de 5.796 km\u00b2, Nota t\u00e9cnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edi\u00e7\u00e3o do Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, \u201c\u00c1rea queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milh\u00f5es de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,\u201d July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica (ed.), Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional 2026: Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Servi\u00e7o Geol\u00f3gico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, \u201cDrought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,\u201d October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., \u201cThe new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,\u201d Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), \u201cPIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilh\u00f5es,\u201d Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11\u00ba Levantamento da Safra de Gr\u00e3os 2025\/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil. CONAB, Bras\u00edlia. Observation year: 2025\/26 (agency estimate).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domic\u00edlios Cont\u00ednua: Seguran\u00e7a Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), T\u00e1buas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil, \u201cCasos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milh\u00f5es; mortes somam 5,9 mil,\u201d January 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>World Health Organization (ed.), \u201cDengue: global situation,\u201d Disease Outbreak News, 2024-DON518. WHO, Geneva, 30 May 2024. Observation year: 2024 (to 30 April).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c2-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), \u201cIMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,\u201d Press Release No. 26\/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c2-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\">Brazil 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>15 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WAT \u00b7 Water<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People using safely managed drinking water<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">88.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Safely managed sanitation reached 55.0%. Sewage collection data were not bound.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>World Bank WDI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Energy<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Renewable share of electricity supply<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">86.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Hydropower fell 4.8% in 2025 and gas generation rose 22.7%.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>EPE<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FOO \u00b7 Food<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Grain harvest, agency estimate, crop year 2025\/26<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">360.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt<\/span><p>Soybeans are estimated at 180.5 Mt on 83.5 million hectares.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025\/26<\/span><span>CONAB<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HLT \u00b7 Health<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Dengue deaths confirmed<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">5,972<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p>6,484,890 probable cases in 2024; 908 further deaths were under investigation.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>Ministry of Health<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">BIO \u00b7 Biodiversity<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Amazon deforestation estimate, PRODES<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">5,796<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">km\u00b2<\/span><p>11.08% below the consolidated 2024 rate of 6,518 km\u00b2.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>Aug 2024 to Jul 2025<\/span><span>INPE<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Cross-system<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Rio Grande do Sul floods, effects estimated<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">88.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">R$ billion<\/span><p>About 2.4 million people affected; 185 deaths confirmed.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>World Bank, IDB, ECLAC<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Large basins; 88.6% safely managed drinking water, 55.0% safely managed sanitation; floods in the south, low rivers in the Amazon.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT \u2192 ENE \u00b7 WAT \u2192 FOO \u00b7 WAT \u2194 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>86.8% renewable power; hydropower about half of generation; gas rises when rivers fall.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2190 WAT \u00b7 ENE \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Large grain and oilseed output; outside the FAO Hunger Map; fertiliser dependence not bound.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2190 WAT, CLI, TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Life expectancy 76.6 years; dengue load in 2024; heat deaths not bound.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT \u2190 CLI, WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Forest 58.5% of land; 29.4% of territory protected; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> falling, fire volatile.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO \u2194 WAT, FOO, CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>Warmest year on record in 2024; drought and flood extremes; strong El Ni\u00f1o outlook.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">forcing on all systems<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>River transport and ports exposed to low water; levees and drainage tested in 2024.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Gross debt 93.3% of GDP; policy rate 14.0%; climate-risk rules for banks since 2022.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2190 CLI, WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2192 ENE, FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>Data-centre and compute demand on the power system not bound.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 ENE, WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Mining and critical minerals not assessed in this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2190 TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Large agricultural exporter; exports depend on rivers, roads and ports.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>drought, fire and flood on one hydrological cycle<\/td><td>strong El Ni\u00f1o drought<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>88.6% safely managed drinking water<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>floods; river lows<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>86.8% renewable power<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>hydro shortfall; thermal dispatch<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food<\/td><td>harvest estimate 360.8 Mt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>logistics and input shocks<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>dengue 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>; ageing<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heat, smoke and vector load<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td>gross debt 93.3% of GDP<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>disaster fiscal cost<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>poverty 23.1% in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>regional gaps<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>warmest year 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>drought and heavy rain<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>civil protection law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>floods; landslides<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>levees and ports in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>river lows; flood defences<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>large metropolitan regions<\/td><td>urban flooding and heat<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>forest 58.5% of land<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>fire; conversion<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>PRODES since 1988<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>continuity<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>dependencies not yet mapped<\/td><td>systemic outages<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>climate policy and carbon market<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>coordination across levels<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>strong national and Amazon science base<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>translation to regions<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), people using safely managed drinking water and sanitation services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Brazil. World Bank, Washington DC, data release of 8 October 2026, which post-dates evidence close; see the edition notes. Observation year: 2024 (forest, water, sanitation) and 2025 (protected areas).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica (ed.), Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional 2026: Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11\u00ba Levantamento da Safra de Gr\u00e3os 2025\/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil. CONAB, Bras\u00edlia. Observation year: 2025\/26 (agency estimate).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil, \u201cCasos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milh\u00f5es; mortes somam 5,9 mil,\u201d January 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia Legal para 2025 \u00e9 de 5.796 km\u00b2, Nota t\u00e9cnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), \u201cBID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atua\u00e7\u00e3o tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,\u201d press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Bras\u00edlia, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Censo Demogr\u00e1fico 2022: popula\u00e7\u00e3o residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), \u201cIMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,\u201d Press Release No. 26\/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), S\u00edntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (ed.), balan\u00e7o clim\u00e1tico de 2024: annual mean temperature 25.02 \u00b0C, 0.79 \u00b0C above the 1991 to 2020 mean, warmest year since 1961, as reported by Brazilian press, January 2025. INMET, Bras\u00edlia. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 12.608, de 10 de abril de 2012, institui a Pol\u00edtica Nacional de Prote\u00e7\u00e3o e Defesa Civil. Di\u00e1rio Oficial da <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">Uni<\/a>\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2012. Observation year: 2012.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 15.042, de 11 de dezembro de 2024, institui o Sistema Brasileiro de Com\u00e9rcio de Emiss\u00f5es de Gases de Efeito Estufa (SBCE). Di\u00e1rio Oficial da Uni\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Pol\u00edtica Nacional sobre Mudan\u00e7a do Clima. Di\u00e1rio Oficial da Uni\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2009. Observation year: 2009.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., \u201cCritical transitions in the Amazon forest system,\u201d Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555\u2013564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c3-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., \u201cThe new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,\u201d Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c3-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\">Brazil 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>4 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>11 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-BRA-CLI-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Extreme rainfall and river flooding in the south<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h4\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.precipitation.heavy-rain\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Precipitation extremes\" data-td=\"Rain falling fast or long enough to overwhelm drainage, soils and streams and to trigger floods and slope failures.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H4\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">intense rainfall<\/a> in a warming climate<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>floodplains, cities, farms<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>levee and pumping design; settlement in flood zones<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>civil defence; recovery finance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 INF, FOO, FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>annual<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-BRA-CLI-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Amazon drought, low rivers and fire<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>El Ni\u00f1o years on a warming baseline<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>river transport, riverine communities, forest<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>dependence on rivers for supply and logistics<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>monitoring and fire brigades; reserves not bound<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 INF, HLT, BIO<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>seasonal<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-BRA-ENE-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Hydropower shortfall in a dry year<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>below-normal inflows across main basins<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>about half of power generation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>basin concentration; storage margin not bound<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>gas, biomass, wind and solar growth<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>WAT \u2192 ENE \u2192 FOO, FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-BRA-BIO-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Amazon forest loss and degradation<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>land conversion, fire and drought together<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>forest, regional rainfall, carbon stock<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>degradation not captured by clear-cut loss<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>monitoring since 1988<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>; falling loss rates<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>BIO \u2192 CLI \u2192 WAT, FOO<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>30 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>Amazon <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> estimate fell 11.08% in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>; attribution to policy not assessed<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>PRODES annual series since 1988 and MapBiomas alerts in continuous use<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: national centre for natural disaster monitoring and civil defence records \u00b7 blocker: not reviewed by evidence close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>national civil protection law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup>; drill records not bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: national grid operator storage records \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>sheltering of up to 581,638 displaced people at the May 2024 peak<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: utility restoration records \u00b7 blocker: not published in bound form<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>joint recovery recommendations published November 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>; durations not bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>national adaptation strategy with sixteen sectoral plans named in the contribution<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>benefits cut extreme poverty from 10.0% to 3.5% in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>climate-risk rules for banks in force since 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup>; disaster cover not bound<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>Interministerial Committee on <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> named in the contribution<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>grid 86.8% renewable; 64,793 MW solar and 34,707 MW wind installed<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>source: sector registers \u00b7 blocker: not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>strong peer-reviewed Amazon and climate record<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup>; wider base not assessed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), \u201cBID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atua\u00e7\u00e3o tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,\u201d press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Bras\u00edlia, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), \u201cSitua\u00e7\u00e3o nos munic\u00edpios,\u201d SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica (ed.), Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional 2026: Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia Legal para 2025 \u00e9 de 5.796 km\u00b2, Nota t\u00e9cnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 12.608, de 10 de abril de 2012, institui a Pol\u00edtica Nacional de Prote\u00e7\u00e3o e Defesa Civil. Di\u00e1rio Oficial da <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">Uni<\/a>\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2012. Observation year: 2012.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil\u2019s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Bras\u00edlia, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), S\u00edntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Conselho Monet\u00e1rio Nacional (ed.), Resolu\u00e7\u00e3o CMN n\u00ba 4.943, de 15 de setembro de 2021, gerenciamento de riscos social, ambiental e clim\u00e1tico. Banco Central do Brasil, Bras\u00edlia, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (in force from 2022).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., \u201cCritical transitions in the Amazon forest system,\u201d Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555\u2013564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c4-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., \u201cThe new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,\u201d Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c4-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\">Brazil 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Strong El Ni\u00f1o drought across rivers, hydropower and fire<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>3 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>4 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a strong El Ni\u00f1o year with record warmth and below-normal rainfall in northern and eastern Amazonia, followed by a dry season with high fire weather<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>Amazon drought of 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c5-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup>; river lows of 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c5-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup>; hydropower fall of 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c5-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">rivers fall to record lows; supply and navigation stressed<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Negro River 2023, 2024<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">river ports and grain shipments disrupted<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Madeira River 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c5-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">hydropower falls and thermal dispatch rises<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">hydro \u22124.8%, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c5-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 BIO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">fire season burns forest and savanna<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">\u224830 million ha, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c5-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">BIO \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">smoke and heat load on health services (not bound)<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">gap \u00b7 Ministry of Health<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">power cost and fiscal pressure rise (not bound)<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">gap \u00b7 grid operator, Treasury<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01 would travel through Brazil&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Climate to water<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Rivers fall to record lows; supply and navigation stressed. Analogue or source: Negro River 2023, 2024.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition BRA, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Water to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">River ports and grain shipments disrupted. Analogue or source: Madeira River 2024 [21].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition BRA, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Water to energy<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Hydropower falls and thermal dispatch rises. Analogue or source: hydro \u22124.8%, 2025 [10].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition BRA, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Climate to biodiversity<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Fire season burns forest and savanna. Analogue or source: \u224830 million ha, 2024 [13].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition BRA, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Biodiversity to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Smoke and heat load on health services (not bound). Analogue or source: gap \u00b7 Ministry of Health.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition BRA, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Energy to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Power cost and fiscal pressure rise (not bound). Analogue or source: gap \u00b7 grid operator, Treasury.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition BRA, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Brazil 2026, scenario SCN-BRA-DRT-01<\/a> (2026); Brazil 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., \u201cThe new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,\u201d Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c5-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Servi\u00e7o Geol\u00f3gico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, \u201cDrought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,\u201d October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c5-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica (ed.), Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional 2026: Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c5-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c5-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c5-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\">Brazil 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>14 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>35 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports a coupled reading of Brazil\u2019s risk: drought, flood and fire share one hydrological cycle, and power, food and logistics depend on it. Evidence is strongest for emissions, land cover, energy and floods, and weakest for heat mortality, reserves and lifeline continuity.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">CLI-001 \u00b7 WAT-007 \u00b7 ENE-005 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people risk arrives as a flood, a smoke-filled season or a dengue wave. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how regional gaps in poverty and services change who recovers fastest.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">WAT-007 \u00b7 HLT-010 \u00b7 FOO-009<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. General government gross debt was 93.3% of GDP in 2025, climate-risk rules for banks have applied since 2022, and an emissions trading system has been legislated<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-011 \u00b7 WAT-007<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>Brazil has world-class monitoring of forests and a very clean grid, and thinner evidence on reserves, continuity and heat health. The 2027 programme should test the drought pathway, bind reservoir and heat data, and measure logistics exposure.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 A-01 \u00b7 A-02<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Brazil. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability have been developed?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests reveal?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What did the year establish, and what changes next?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Brazil<\/td><td>national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups<\/td><td>national Commons room<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. National adoption of any standard is a decision of the national standards council.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Flood in the south, drought in the north and fire in the centre are often described as separate problems. The baseline treats them as one hydrological cycle that is moving faster, and reads every system through it.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>One cycle, three hazards<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Brazil\u2019s electricity is 86.8% renewable, which is an asset. It is also hydrological, so a dry year changes the mix, the emissions and the cost within a single season.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>A clean grid that depends on rain<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Deforestation and gross emissions fell. Fire burned far more land in 2024 than in 2025, which shows how fast the picture can change. The baseline records the gains and the volatility together.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Progress that has to hold<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Heat deaths, sewage collection, reservoir storage and fertiliser dependence were not bound at evidence close. The edition shows each gap, names the source that would fill it and estimates nothing in its place.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Evidence has gaps, and the gaps are shown<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from working groups, consortium institutions and invited experts begin with the Q1 2027 edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Q1 2027 readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First Q1 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td>National risk state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 7 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>NWG delivery register<\/td><td>no groups yet<\/td><td>first monthly outputs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>NNC capability register<\/td><td>membership opens in Q1 2027<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>NLC questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>environment prepared<\/td><td>first sealed cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first correction cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no public authority.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SUBMITTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">UNDER REVIEW<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup> \u00b7 second NDC, 59 to 67% net by 2035<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNFCCC \u00b7 Brazil<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>SUBMITTED 2024<\/td><td>emissions pathway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Policy, Law 12.187\/2009<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Federal Government<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>climate governance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions trading system, Law 15.042\/2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Federal Government<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>IN FORCE \u00b7 REGULATION PHASED<\/td><td>carbon pricing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate and environmental risk rules, CMN Resolution 4.943\/2021<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>National Monetary Council<\/td><td>financial institutions<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>finance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sanitation legal framework, Law 14.026\/2020<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Federal Government<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>water services<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National Civil Protection Policy, Law 12.608\/2012<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Federal Government<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>disaster management<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Payments for environmental services, Law 14.119\/2021<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Federal Government<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>forest incentives<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kunming-Montreal Framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CBD<\/td><td>international<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2022<\/td><td>30by30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> 2015\u20132030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNDRR<\/td><td>international<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2015<\/td><td>disaster risk<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Brazil submitted its second nationally determined contribution in November 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The emissions trading law was enacted in December 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Tropical Forest Forever Facility was launched in November 2025 with pledges announced<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Regulation and monitoring rules of the emissions trading system<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Capitalisation and rules of the Tropical Forest Forever Facility<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Update of the national adaptation strategy named in the contribution<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. A change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about Brazil\u2019s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Flores et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>Amazon transitions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lovejoy and Nobre<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>tipping behaviour<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Boulton et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>resilience loss<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Lapola et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>forest degradation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Espinoza et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>2023 drought<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Raj\u00e3o et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>supply chains<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional reports<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>IPCC Working Group II, Chapter 12<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IPCC<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>regional impacts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPCC Synthesis Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IPCC<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>forcing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPBES nexus assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IPBES<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>interlinkages<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Compound events<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Nature <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a><\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>compound events<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of the Climate, Latin America<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>regional climate<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Official statistics and national sources<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Deforestation<\/a> estimate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>INPE<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>Amazon loss<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy balance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EPE \u00b7 MME<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>power and emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population estimates and Census<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IBGE<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National accounts<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IBGE<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>economy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Social indicators<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IBGE<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>poverty and food<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Industry, loss data and international sources<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Deforestation and fire reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>MapBiomas<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>land and fire<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions estimates<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>SEEG<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Flood assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank \u00b7 IDB \u00b7 ECLAC<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>losses<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Article IV report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>fiscal<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Brazil\u2019s climate is warming and extremes are intensifying<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Deforestation and fire together weaken Amazon resilience<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Floods and droughts impose large losses on production and services<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Whether and when parts of the Amazon cross a tipping threshold<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How much of the recent fall in deforestation will hold<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How much heat mortality is under-recorded<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from Q1 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 15.042, de 11 de dezembro de 2024, institui o Sistema Brasileiro de Com\u00e9rcio de Emiss\u00f5es de Gases de Efeito Estufa (SBCE). Di\u00e1rio Oficial da <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">Uni<\/a>\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Conselho Monet\u00e1rio Nacional (ed.), Resolu\u00e7\u00e3o CMN n\u00ba 4.943, de 15 de setembro de 2021, gerenciamento de riscos social, ambiental e clim\u00e1tico. Banco Central do Brasil, Bras\u00edlia, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (in force from 2022).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), \u201cIMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,\u201d Press Release No. 26\/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNFCCC (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year: 2015.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil\u2019s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Bras\u00edlia, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Pol\u00edtica Nacional sobre Mudan\u00e7a do Clima. Di\u00e1rio Oficial da Uni\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2009. Observation year: 2009.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 14.026, de 15 de julho de 2020, atualiza o marco legal do saneamento b\u00e1sico. Di\u00e1rio Oficial da Uni\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2020. Observation year: 2020.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 12.608, de 10 de abril de 2012, institui a Pol\u00edtica Nacional de Prote\u00e7\u00e3o e Defesa Civil. Di\u00e1rio Oficial da Uni\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2012. Observation year: 2012.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 14.119, de 13 de janeiro de 2021, institui a Pol\u00edtica Nacional de Pagamento por Servi\u00e7os Ambientais. Di\u00e1rio Oficial da Uni\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2021. Observation year: 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15\/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year: 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2015\u20132030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year: 2015.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Minist\u00e9rio das Rela\u00e7\u00f5es Exteriores (ed.), \u201cOver USD 5.5 billion announced for Tropical Forest Forever Facility as 53 countries endorse the historic TFFF launch declaration.\u201d Government of Brazil, Bras\u00edlia, November 2025. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., \u201cCritical transitions in the Amazon forest system,\u201d Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555\u2013564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>T. E. Lovejoy and C. Nobre, \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h68\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 planet.biome-tipping.amazon-dieback\" data-tk=\"Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping \u00b7 Biome tipping elements\" data-td=\"Large-scale conversion of Amazon rainforest to degraded forest or savanna as drought, fire and clearing break its moisture recycling, releasing carbon and drying South American rainfall.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H68\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/planet\/\" data-txl=\"Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping\">Amazon tipping<\/a> point,\u201d Science Advances, vol. 4, no. 2, eaat2340, 2018. Observation year: 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>C. A. Boulton, T. M. Lenton and N. Boers, \u201cPronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s,\u201d Nature <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a>, vol. 12, 2022. Observation year: 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>D. M. Lapola, P. Pinho, J. Barlow et al., \u201cThe drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation,\u201d Science, vol. 379, eabp8622, 2023. Observation year: 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., \u201cThe new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,\u201d Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>R. Raj\u00e3o, B. Soares-Filho, F. Nunes et al., \u201cThe rotten apples of Brazil\u2019s agribusiness,\u201d Science, vol. 369, pp. 246\u2013248, 2020. Observation year: 2020.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>E. Castellanos, M. F. Lemos, L. Astigarraga et al., \u201cCentral and South America,\u201d in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, chapter 12. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Observation year: 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year: 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. Observation year: 2024. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018. Observation year: 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia Legal para 2025 \u00e9 de 5.796 km\u00b2, Nota t\u00e9cnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica (ed.), Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional 2026: Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Estimativas da popula\u00e7\u00e3o residente no Brasil e unidades da federa\u00e7\u00e3o com data de refer\u00eancia em 1\u00ba de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Censo Demogr\u00e1fico 2022: popula\u00e7\u00e3o residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), \u201cPIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilh\u00f5es,\u201d Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), S\u00edntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domic\u00edlios Cont\u00ednua: Seguran\u00e7a Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edi\u00e7\u00e3o do Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, \u201c\u00c1rea queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milh\u00f5es de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,\u201d July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Observat\u00f3rio do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: An\u00e1lise das emiss\u00f5es brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implica\u00e7\u00f5es para as metas clim\u00e1ticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observat\u00f3rio do Clima, S\u00e3o Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), \u201cBID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atua\u00e7\u00e3o tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,\u201d press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Bras\u00edlia, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\">Brazil 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>4 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a strong El Ni\u00f1o drought lower Amazon rivers and hydropower, and how long would navigation, supply and power margins take to recover?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-BRA-CLI-01 \u00b7 drought and river compound test; first output: dependency graph for two basins.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How much hydropower and reservoir margin remains before thermal dispatch must rise, and at what emissions and cost?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-BRA-ENE-02 \u00b7 hydro and thermal resilience; first output: storage and dispatch register.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How exposed are fertiliser, feed and export logistics to river lows and port disruption?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-BRA-FOO-03 \u00b7 food logistics exposure; first output: commodity and route table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How large is the heat, smoke and dengue load on health services in a hot, dry year?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-BRA-HLT-04 \u00b7 heat, smoke and vector load; first output: surge baseline for five states.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where do flood and drought losses fall on the uninsured and on public budgets?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-BRA-FIN-05 \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a>; first output: peril-by-state loss table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do forest loss, degradation and fire interact with regional rainfall?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-BRA-BIO-01 \u00b7 workstream; first output: biome interaction note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How resilient are river-basin cities to heavy rain after the 2024 floods?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only listed?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-BRA-CLI-01<\/span><\/td><td>Drought and river compound test<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-BRA-ENE-02<\/span><\/td><td>Hydropower and thermal dispatch resilience<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-BRA-FOO-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food logistics and input exposure<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-BRA-HLT-04<\/span><\/td><td>Heat, smoke and vector load<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-BRA-FIN-05<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PRJ-BRA-CLI-01a<\/span><\/td><td>Two-basin drought dependency graph<\/td><td>Project<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-BRA-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Drought, river and hydropower Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Brazil is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Brazil from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">One National Agenda<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">bounded national questions for the year<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">DRAFT 2027 \u00b7 agenda review at the Q1 alignment<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Desk<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">coordination, records, routing and continuity<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">DESIGNED \u00b7 constituted in Q1 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the country as a system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with the first Foundry cut<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Portfolio<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">7 PROPOSED \u00b7 admission at the Q1 alignment<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Foundry<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">continuous computational environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PREPARED \u00b7 first sealed cut NQ-BRA-2027-Q1<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Reports<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">quarterly and annual publication<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE ISSUED \u00b7 Q1 2027 \u00b7 State &amp; Agenda<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate set in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">after-action, correction and renewal<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in Q2 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>Q4 2027 annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-BRA-2027-01 \u00b7 Drought, river and hydropower Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor (NLC) \u00b7 Institutional anchor (NNC) \u00b7 Mission lead (NWG)<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>CLI-001 \u00b7 emissions<\/td><td>public record<\/td><td>reference for the 2027 series<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WAT-006 \u00b7 river lows<\/td><td>INI-BRA-CLI-01<\/td><td>two-basin graph<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WAT-007 \u00b7 floods<\/td><td>INI-BRA-FIN-05 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENE-005 \u00b7 power mix<\/td><td>INI-BRA-ENE-02<\/td><td>hydro and thermal resilience<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FOO-008 \u00b7 harvest<\/td><td>INI-BRA-FOO-03<\/td><td>logistics exposure<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HLT-010 \u00b7 dengue<\/td><td>INI-BRA-HLT-04<\/td><td>heat, smoke and vector load<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIO-003 \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a><\/td><td>INI-BRA-BIO-01<\/td><td>biome interaction note<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-BRA-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the national pathway<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. Competent authorities receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from Q1 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Deforestation<\/a> alerts (DETER)<\/td><td>INPE<\/td><td>daily<\/td><td>BIO findings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fire foci<\/td><td>INPE<\/td><td>daily<\/td><td>BIO-004<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Natural hazard alerts<\/td><td>Cemaden<\/td><td>real time<\/td><td>RSK-BRA-CLI-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>River-level bulletins, Amazon basin<\/td><td>Geological Service of Brazil<\/td><td>daily<\/td><td>WAT-006<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Grid operation and storage<\/td><td>National Electric System Operator<\/td><td>daily<\/td><td>ENE-005<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Arbovirus monitoring panel<\/td><td>Ministry of Health<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><td>HLT-010<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy balance and monthly bulletins<\/td><td>EPE<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>ENE findings<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">quarterly publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-BRA-001<\/td><td>Strong El Ni\u00f1o outlook for August to October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c7-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 WAT \u00b7 ENE<\/td><td>risk object RSK-BRA-CLI-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-BRA-002<\/td><td>Record river lows at Manaus in 2023 and 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c7-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c7-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>WAT \u00b7 INF<\/td><td>research question A-01<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-BRA-003<\/td><td>Hydropower down 4.8% and gas generation up 22.7% in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c7-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>ENE \u00b7 WAT<\/td><td>initiative A-02<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>World Meteorological Organization (ed.), \u201cStrong El Ni\u00f1o expected to intensify,\u201d news release. WMO, Geneva, 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c7-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Servi\u00e7o Geol\u00f3gico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, \u201cDrought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,\u201d October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c7-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., \u201cThe new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,\u201d Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c7-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c7-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica (ed.), Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional 2026: Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c7-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\">Brazil 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>8 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>23 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Water, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Brazil holds large river basins, yet its water risk is regional and event-driven: floods in the south, low rivers in the Amazon and hydropower tied to rainfall. National sewage collection and reservoir storage were not bound at evidence close.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">88.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>safely managed drinking water, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">55.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>safely managed sanitation, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">12.66<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">m<\/span><p>Negro River at Manaus, record low, October 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Drinking water<\/td><td>88.6% of people use safely managed services<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sanitation<\/td><td>55.0% safely managed; sewage collection and treatment not bound<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Floods<\/td><td>Rio Grande do Sul 2024: 185 deaths, R$88.9 billion<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Drought<\/td><td>Negro River record lows in 2023 and 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>WAT \u2192 ENE hydropower inflows<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 FOO irrigation and river logistics<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 WAT flood and drought<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 HLT sanitation and disease<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>sewage collection and treatment (SINISA)<\/li><li>reservoir storage and withdrawals by use<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>River levels in the dry season, reservoir storage margins, the next rainy season in the south and sanitation targets under the legal framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Water services rest with municipalities, states and concession holders; this chapter assesses none of them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Energy, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Electricity was 86.8% renewable in 2025, with hydropower about half of generation. When hydropower fell 4.8%, gas generation rose 22.7%. Emissions from energy were 442.3 Mt CO\u2082e.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">86.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>renewable share of electricity, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">49.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>renewable share of energy supply, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">442.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt CO\u2082e<\/span><p>energy-sector emissions, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Power mix<\/td><td>renewables 86.8%; hydropower 401.4 TWh, \u22124.8%<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Wind and solar<\/td><td>116.5 TWh and 88.1 TWh; 34,707 MW and 64,793 MW installed<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Thermal<\/td><td>169.9 TWh, +12.3%; gas generation +22.7%<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Storage margin<\/td><td>not bound at evidence close<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 ENE hydropower inflows<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 FIN power cost<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 HLT cooling and services<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 FOO pumping and processing<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>reservoir storage by basin<\/li><li>gas import exposure<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Basin inflows, storage at the start of the dry season, thermal dispatch and the share of wind and solar.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Energy decisions rest with the government, the regulator and operators; this chapter assesses none of them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Brazil is a large grain and oilseed producer. The 2025\/26 harvest is estimated at 360.8 Mt, and the country stayed outside the FAO Hunger Map. Fertiliser and feed dependence were not bound.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">360.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt<\/span><p>grain harvest estimate, 2025\/26<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">180.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Mt<\/span><p>soybean estimate, 2025\/26<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>moderate or severe <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a>, 2023 to 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Production<\/td><td>harvest estimate 360.8 Mt on 83.5 million hectares<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Economy<\/td><td>agricultural value added +11.7% in 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunger<\/td><td>outside the FAO Hunger Map; 3.2% of households in severe insecurity in 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Inputs<\/td><td>fertiliser and feed dependence not bound<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>WAT \u2192 FOO rain, irrigation and river logistics<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 FOO fuel and processing<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 FOO drought and heat<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 FOO regional moisture recycling<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>fertiliser and feed import dependence<\/li><li>export logistics under river lows<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Harvest revisions, river-port operations in the dry season and input prices.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes the food system; it makes no statement on agricultural or trade policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Life expectancy reached 76.6 years in 2024 and poverty fell, yet dengue caused 5,972 confirmed deaths that year. Heat-attributable deaths were not bound at evidence close.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>aged 65 or over, 2022 (derived)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">76.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">years<\/span><p>life expectancy at birth, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5,972<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p>dengue, confirmed, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Ageing<\/td><td>10.9% aged 65 or over in 2022<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dengue<\/td><td>6,484,890 probable cases in 2024; 908 deaths under investigation<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Poverty<\/td><td>23.1% below the poverty line; extreme poverty 3.5%<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat<\/td><td>attributable deaths not bound<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 HLT heat and smoke<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 HLT sanitation and vectors<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 HLT cooling and services<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 HLT <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h6\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.particles.smoke-plume\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Airborne particles and low visibility\" data-td=\"Combustion particles from fires carried downwind, degrading air and visibility far from the source.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H6\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">fire smoke<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>heat-attributable deaths, national total<\/li><li>smoke exposure in fire seasons<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Weekly arbovirus counts, heat alerts, smoke episodes and health-service surge capacity.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Health planning rests with national, state and municipal authorities. No personal health data are used or shown in Reports.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Forest covers 58.5% of land and 29.4% of the territory is protected. <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Deforestation<\/a> fell in 2025, while fire burned about 30 million hectares in 2024 and 12.7 million in 2025.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">58.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>forest share of land, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">29.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>protected share of territory, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">984,794<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">ha<\/span><p>native vegetation loss, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Forest<\/td><td>58.5% of land area<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deforestation<\/td><td>Amazon estimate 5,796 km\u00b2; national loss 984,794 ha<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fire<\/td><td>\u224830 million ha in 2024; 12.7 million ha in 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Tipping risk<\/td><td>literature reports threshold behaviour; timing is contested<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>BIO \u2192 WAT forest and watershed regulation<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 FOO regional moisture recycling<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 BIO drought and fire<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 CLI carbon stock<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>forest degradation outside clear-cut loss<\/li><li>condition of savanna and wetland biomes<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>PRODES 2026, early-season fire foci, drought indicators and savanna conversion rates.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Biodiversity is not reduced to a single number. Where valuation is used later, it will never be presented as the whole value.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), people using safely managed drinking water and sanitation services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Brazil. World Bank, Washington DC, data release of 8 October 2026, which post-dates evidence close; see the edition notes. Observation year: 2024 (forest, water, sanitation) and 2025 (protected areas).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Servi\u00e7o Geol\u00f3gico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, \u201cDrought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,\u201d October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Minist\u00e9rio das Cidades (ed.), Sistema Nacional de Informa\u00e7\u00f5es em Saneamento B\u00e1sico, SINISA 2024 (reference year 2023): resultados e indicadores. Minist\u00e9rio das Cidades, Bras\u00edlia, 2025. Observation year: 2023 (listed as the source that would fill a gap; figures not used).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), \u201cBID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atua\u00e7\u00e3o tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,\u201d press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Bras\u00edlia, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), \u201cSitua\u00e7\u00e3o nos munic\u00edpios,\u201d SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., \u201cThe new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,\u201d Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 14.026, de 15 de julho de 2020, atualiza o marco legal do saneamento b\u00e1sico. Di\u00e1rio Oficial da <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">Uni<\/a>\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2020. Observation year: 2020.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica (ed.), Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional 2026: Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11\u00ba Levantamento da Safra de Gr\u00e3os 2025\/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil. CONAB, Bras\u00edlia. Observation year: 2025\/26 (agency estimate).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), \u201cPIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilh\u00f5es,\u201d Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domic\u00edlios Cont\u00ednua: Seguran\u00e7a Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Censo Demogr\u00e1fico 2022: popula\u00e7\u00e3o residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), T\u00e1buas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil, \u201cCasos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milh\u00f5es; mortes somam 5,9 mil,\u201d January 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), S\u00edntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia Legal para 2025 \u00e9 de 5.796 km\u00b2, Nota t\u00e9cnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edi\u00e7\u00e3o do Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, \u201c\u00c1rea queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milh\u00f5es de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,\u201d July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>T. E. Lovejoy and C. Nobre, \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h68\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 planet.biome-tipping.amazon-dieback\" data-tk=\"Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping \u00b7 Biome tipping elements\" data-td=\"Large-scale conversion of Amazon rainforest to degraded forest or savanna as drought, fire and clearing break its moisture recycling, releasing carbon and drying South American rainfall.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H68\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/planet\/\" data-txl=\"Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping\">Amazon tipping<\/a> point,\u201d Science Advances, vol. 4, no. 2, eaat2340, 2018. Observation year: 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., \u201cCritical transitions in the Amazon forest system,\u201d Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555\u2013564, 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-c8-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>C. A. Boulton, T. M. Lenton and N. Boers, \u201cPronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s,\u201d Nature <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a>, vol. 12, 2022. Observation year: 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-c8-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\">Brazil 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>10 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>12 tables<\/span><span>7 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Gap to the upper end of the 2035 range<\/td><td>1,490 \u2212 1,050<\/td><td>\u2248 440 Mt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Gap to the lower end of the 2035 range<\/td><td>1,490 \u2212 850<\/td><td>\u2248 640 Mt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Net emissions below 2005 (indicative)<\/td><td>1 \u2212 1.49 \u00f7 2.56<\/td><td>\u2248 42%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Hydropower share of generation, 2025<\/td><td>401.4 \u00f7 775.9<\/td><td>\u2248 51.7%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(5)<\/td><td>Population aged 65 or over, Census 2022<\/td><td>22,169,101 \u00f7 203,080,756<\/td><td>\u2248 10.9%<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, National Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-BRA-NATIONAL \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent Brazil as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> with forcing and transmission layers<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of systems<\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from evidence and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>national scale; not for state or asset-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the coupled reading of risk in Brazil.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, operational decisions, provincial comparisons or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>NQ-BRA-2026-Q0-1<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>48 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>NQ-BRA-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Q1 2027<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>qualified source bindings with versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>National Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to the cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GHG emissions (SEEG)<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Nov 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Nov 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy balance<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jun 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Jun 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Amazon <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> estimate<\/td><td>Aug 2024 to Jul 2025<\/td><td>Oct 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Nov 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deforestation, MapBiomas<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>May 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>May 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Burned area, MapBiomas<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jul 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Jul 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population estimate<\/td><td>1 Jul 2026<\/td><td>Aug 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Aug 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Poverty and inequality<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Dec 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Dec 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dengue 2024<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Jan 2025<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><td>ongoing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Food insecurity<\/a>, FAO<\/td><td>2023 to 2025<\/td><td>Jul 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>Jul 2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Climate forcing<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>rainfall extremes by basin<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>reservoir storage and gas imports<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>degradation outside clear-cut loss<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>fertiliser and feed dependence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>heat-attributable deaths<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>sewage collection and withdrawals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>disaster insurance take-up<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Digital<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>dependency mapping<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the Energy Research Company (EPE) for the Ministry of Mines and Energy. Annual, calendar-year basis; published 3 June 2026 and updated 31 July 2026. Role: binds ENE-005 and the energy emissions figures.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-BRA-001<\/h3><p>Energy balance 2026, summary report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by INPE under the PRODES programme. Annual; August to July year; estimate from 282 of 516 priority tiles. Role: binds BIO-003, labelled as an estimate before consolidation.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-BRA-002<\/h3><p>Amazon deforestation estimate 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-BRA-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-BRA-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>all energy sources and sectors<\/td><td>priority tiles, about 90% of prior loss<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 5 months after the year<\/td><td>about 3 months after the period<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>annual back-revision<\/td><td>consolidated the following year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>published methodology<\/td><td>published technical note<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>national energy accounting<\/td><td>independent land-cover networks<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>SEEG 13<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup> \u00b7 method and sector boundaries<\/li><li>National greenhouse-gas inventory \u00b7 latest submission year<\/li><li>MapBiomas annual reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup> \u00b7 definitions of loss and burned area<\/li><li>Ministry of Health arbovirus panel<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup> \u00b7 counting rules<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>ANA<\/td><td>National Water and Sanitation Agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ANDA<\/td><td>National Association for Fertiliser Dissemination<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BEN<\/td><td>Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional (National Energy Balance)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CMN<\/td><td>National Monetary Council<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONAB<\/td><td>National Supply Company<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>DaLA<\/td><td>Damage and Loss Assessment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ECLAC<\/td><td>Economic Commission for Latin America and the Caribbean<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EPE<\/td><td>Energy Research Company<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IBGE<\/td><td>Brazilian Institute of Geography and Statistics<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IDB<\/td><td>Inter-American Development Bank<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>INMET<\/td><td>National Institute of Meteorology<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>INPE<\/td><td>National Institute for Space Research<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ONS<\/td><td>National Electric System Operator<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>PRODES<\/td><td>Amazon <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> monitoring programme of INPE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SEEG<\/td><td>Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals Estimating System<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SGB<\/td><td>Geological Service of Brazil<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SINISA<\/td><td>National Sanitation Information System<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TFFF<\/td><td>Tropical Forest Forever Facility<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the baseline indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-BRA-DRT-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>Q1 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>Q2 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>State notes<\/td><td>atlas cards for every state<\/td><td>Q2 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition, net greenhouse-gas emissions<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>annual emissions minus removals by protected areas and secondary forests (SEEG definition)<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>Mt CO\u2082e or Gt CO\u2082e, 100-year potentials<\/dd><dt>Scope<\/dt><dd>calendar year, economy-wide<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>SEEG 13<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>; target basis in the contribution<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Revision<\/dt><dd>back-revised in each SEEG release<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>differs in method from the national inventory; land-use values carry wide uncertainty<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica (ed.), Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional 2026: Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia Legal para 2025 \u00e9 de 5.796 km\u00b2, Nota t\u00e9cnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Observat\u00f3rio do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: An\u00e1lise das emiss\u00f5es brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implica\u00e7\u00f5es para as metas clim\u00e1ticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observat\u00f3rio do Clima, S\u00e3o Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edi\u00e7\u00e3o do Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, \u201c\u00c1rea queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milh\u00f5es de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,\u201d July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil, \u201cCasos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milh\u00f5es; mortes somam 5,9 mil,\u201d January 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ca-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil\u2019s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Bras\u00edlia, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\">Brazil 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>11 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>7 tables<\/span><span>25 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Population<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">214.2<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Aged 65 or over (derived)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">10.9<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GDP growth<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.3<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People below the poverty line (US$6.85 a day)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">23.1<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Extreme poverty (US$2.15 a day)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">3.5<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Life expectancy at birth<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">76.6<\/span><\/td><td>years<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Households in severe <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">3.2<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Moderate or severe food insecurity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">9.6<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023 to 2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gross greenhouse-gas emissions<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2,145<\/span><\/td><td>Mt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Net greenhouse-gas emissions<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.49<\/span><\/td><td>Gt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Net emissions target 2035<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">0.85 to 1.05<\/span><\/td><td>Gt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>2035<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewable share of electricity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">86.8<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hydropower generation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">401.4<\/span><\/td><td>TWh<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy-sector emissions<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">442.3<\/span><\/td><td>Mt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Amazon <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> estimate<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">5,796<\/span><\/td><td>km\u00b2<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Native vegetation loss, national<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">984,794<\/span><\/td><td>ha<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Area burned<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">12.7<\/span><\/td><td>million ha<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Rio Grande do Sul floods, effects<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">88.9<\/span><\/td><td>R$ billion<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dengue deaths confirmed<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">5,972<\/span><\/td><td>deaths<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Grain harvest estimate<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">360.8<\/span><\/td><td>Mt<\/td><td>2025\/26<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Forest area share of land<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">58.5<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>General government gross debt<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">93.3<\/span><\/td><td>% of GDP<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Official national inventory total, latest year<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Not bound<\/span><\/td><td>Mt CO\u2082e<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>Ministry of Science inventory<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Sewage collection, national indicator<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Not bound<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>SINISA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat-attributable deaths, national total<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Not bound<\/span><\/td><td>deaths<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>Ministry of Health<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Reservoir storage, main basins<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Not bound<\/span><\/td><td>% of capacity<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>ONS<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fertiliser import dependence<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">Not bound<\/span><\/td><td>% of use<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT BOUND<\/td><td>Comex Stat \u00b7 ANDA<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0APopulation%2C214.2%2Cmillion%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AAged%2065%20or%20over%20(derived)%2C10.9%2C%25%2C2022%2CINFERRED%2C%5B2%5D%0AGDP%20growth%2C2.3%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0APeople%20below%20the%20poverty%20line%20(US%246.85%20a%20day)%2C23.1%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0AExtreme%20poverty%20(US%242.15%20a%20day)%2C3.5%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0ALife%20expectancy%20at%20birth%2C76.6%2Cyears%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B5%5D%0AHouseholds%20in%20severe%20food%20insecurity%2C3.2%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B6%5D%0AModerate%20or%20severe%20food%20insecurity%2C9.6%2C%25%2C2023%20to%202025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0AGross%20greenhouse-gas%20emissions%2C%222%2C145%22%2CMt%20CO%E2%82%82e%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0ANet%20greenhouse-gas%20emissions%2C1.49%2CGt%20CO%E2%82%82e%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0ANet%20emissions%20target%202035%2C0.85%20to%201.05%2CGt%20CO%E2%82%82e%2C2035%2CREPORTED%2C%5B8%5D%0ARenewable%20share%20of%20electricity%2C86.8%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0AHydropower%20generation%2C401.4%2CTWh%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0AEnergy-sector%20emissions%2C442.3%2CMt%20CO%E2%82%82e%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0AAmazon%20deforestation%20estimate%2C%225%2C796%22%2Ckm%C2%B2%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B11%5D%0A%22Native%20vegetation%20loss%2C%20national%22%2C%22984%2C794%22%2Cha%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B12%5D%0AArea%20burned%2C12.7%2Cmillion%20ha%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B14%5D%0A%22Rio%20Grande%20do%20Sul%20floods%2C%20effects%22%2C88.9%2CR%24%20billion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0ADengue%20deaths%20confirmed%2C%225%2C972%22%2Cdeaths%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B17%5D%0AGrain%20harvest%20estimate%2C360.8%2CMt%2C2025%2F26%2CREPORTED%2C%5B24%5D%0AForest%20area%20share%20of%20land%2C58.5%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B22%5D%0AGeneral%20government%20gross%20debt%2C93.3%2C%25%20of%20GDP%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B46%5D%0A%22Official%20national%20inventory%20total%2C%20latest%20year%22%2CNot%20bound%2CMt%20CO%E2%82%82e%2Cn%2Fa%2CNOT%20BOUND%2CMinistry%20of%20Science%20inventory%0A%22Sewage%20collection%2C%20national%20indicator%22%2CNot%20bound%2C%25%2Cn%2Fa%2CNOT%20BOUND%2CSINISA%20%5B23%5D%0A%22Heat-attributable%20deaths%2C%20national%20total%22%2CNot%20bound%2Cdeaths%2Cn%2Fa%2CNOT%20BOUND%2CMinistry%20of%20Health%0A%22Reservoir%20storage%2C%20main%20basins%22%2CNot%20bound%2C%25%20of%20capacity%2Cn%2Fa%2CNOT%20BOUND%2CONS%0AFertiliser%20import%20dependence%2CNot%20bound%2C%25%20of%20use%2Cn%2Fa%2CNOT%20BOUND%2CComex%20Stat%20%C2%B7%20ANDA%0A\" download=\"NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Brazil%20Systems%20Risk%20and%20Resilience%20Report%202026%3A%20The%20State%20of%20Brazil%E2%80%99s%20Interdependent%20Systems%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Population%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22214.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Aged%2065%20or%20over%20(derived)%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2210.9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22INFERRED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22GDP%20growth%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20below%20the%20poverty%20line%20(US%246.85%20a%20day)%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2223.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Extreme%20poverty%20(US%242.15%20a%20day)%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%223.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Life%20expectancy%20at%20birth%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2276.6%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22years%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B5%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Households%20in%20severe%20food%20insecurity%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%223.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B6%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Moderate%20or%20severe%20food%20insecurity%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%229.6%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%20to%202025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Gross%20greenhouse-gas%20emissions%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222%2C145%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Mt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Net%20greenhouse-gas%20emissions%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.49%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Gt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Net%20emissions%20target%202035%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%220.85%20to%201.05%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Gt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222035%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Renewable%20share%20of%20electricity%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2286.8%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B10%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Hydropower%20generation%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22401.4%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22TWh%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B10%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Energy-sector%20emissions%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22442.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Mt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B10%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Amazon%20deforestation%20estimate%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%225%2C796%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22km%C2%B2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B11%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Native%20vegetation%20loss%2C%20national%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22984%2C794%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ha%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B12%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Area%20burned%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2212.7%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20ha%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B14%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Rio%20Grande%20do%20Sul%20floods%2C%20effects%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2288.9%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22R%24%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Dengue%20deaths%20confirmed%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%225%2C972%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B17%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Grain%20harvest%20estimate%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22360.8%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Mt%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%2F26%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B24%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Forest%20area%20share%20of%20land%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2258.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B22%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22General%20government%20gross%20debt%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2293.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%20of%20GDP%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B46%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Official%20national%20inventory%20total%2C%20latest%20year%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Not%20bound%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Mt%20CO%E2%82%82e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22n%2Fa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22NOT%20BOUND%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Ministry%20of%20Science%20inventory%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Sewage%20collection%2C%20national%20indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Not%20bound%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22n%2Fa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22NOT%20BOUND%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SINISA%20%5B23%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Heat-attributable%20deaths%2C%20national%20total%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Not%20bound%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22n%2Fa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22NOT%20BOUND%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Ministry%20of%20Health%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Reservoir%20storage%2C%20main%20basins%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Not%20bound%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%20of%20capacity%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22n%2Fa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22NOT%20BOUND%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22ONS%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Fertiliser%20import%20dependence%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Not%20bound%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%20of%20use%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22n%2Fa%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22NOT%20BOUND%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Comex%20Stat%20%C2%B7%20ANDA%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Scenario values are labelled SCENARIO. Rows marked NOT BOUND show a designed empty state: the source that would fill the row is named in the source column, and the blockers are listed in the evidence notes. No value is estimated to fill a gap. Rows marked INFERRED are derived by the stated arithmetic. The method follows the Foundational Edition<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup> and the global baseline<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup>. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>National source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Population estimates<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Census 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>decennial<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>National accounts<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>FIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Social indicators<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>HLT \u00b7 FOO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy balance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>government company<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>ENE \u00b7 CLI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Deforestation<\/a> estimate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national technical authority<\/td><td>biome<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>BIO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deforestation and fire<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>civil-society network<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2024 to 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>BIO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Emissions estimates<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>civil-society network<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Flood assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>international banks \u00b7 state government<\/td><td>state<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>per event<\/td><td>WAT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Arbovirus panel<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ministry<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><td>HLT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food and nutrition report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agencies<\/td><td>national<\/td><td>2023 to 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>FOO<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, Brazil by region<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates for every state follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Resident population by macro-region, 1 July 2026 (Central-West 17.4 million)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">89.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Southeast<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">57.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Northeast<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">31.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>South<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">18.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>North<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, Brazil by region<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North<\/td><td>drought, river lows, fire, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a><\/td><td>water, logistics, biodiversity<\/td><td>Negro River 2023, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Northeast<\/td><td>drought, heavy rain<\/td><td>food, water, health<\/td><td>extreme poverty gap<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Central-West<\/td><td>savanna conversion, fire, drought<\/td><td>food, biodiversity, water<\/td><td>MapBiomas, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Southeast<\/td><td>drought for hydropower, heavy rain, heat<\/td><td>energy, cities, water<\/td><td>hydro \u22124.8%, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South<\/td><td>floods, heavy rain<\/td><td>infrastructure, food, finance<\/td><td>Rio Grande do Sul, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any state.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Atlas card, Rio Grande do Sul<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">state<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">southern Brazil<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">2024 floods<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">river basin<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>water, roads, power, housing and production<\/dd><dt>Defining event<\/dt><dd>floods of April and May 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 INF; WAT \u2192 FOO; INF \u2192 FIN<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>state civil defence response and recovery assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>levee and pumping performance; insurance take-up; restoration times<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>A-05 \u00b7 A-07<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">A peak of 581,638 people were displaced on 19 May 2024, and 185 deaths were confirmed [16].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">PEOPLE<\/h3><p>Large-scale displacement<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Almost every municipality in the state recorded impacts, with about 2.4 million people affected [16].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">MUNICIPALITIES<\/h3><p>478 of 497 affected<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The assessment puts 69% in productive sectors and 21% in social sectors [15].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">ECONOMY<\/h3><p>R$88.9 billion in effects<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Atlas cards are generated for every state from Q2 2027 with consistent fields and evidence-age labels. Rio Grande do Sul is shown first because it holds the best documented compound flood event.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>Brazil system card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The card through which Brazil appears in the South America regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Brazil system card<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline state<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>88.6% safely managed drinking water; floods and low rivers<\/td><td>drought into power and logistics<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>86.8% renewable; hydropower about half<\/td><td>hydro shortfall<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>harvest estimate 360.8 Mt; outside the Hunger Map<\/td><td>logistics and input shocks<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<\/td><td>dengue 2024; heat deaths not bound<\/td><td>heat, smoke and vector load<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>forest 58.5% of land; fire volatile<\/td><td>drought and fire<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Context<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Archetype<\/dt><dd>upper-middle-income continental economy with a hydro-based grid and a large forest estate<\/dd><dt>Population<\/dt><dd>214.2 million (2026)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Trade<\/dt><dd>large agricultural exporter; export routes include river ports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Hazard<\/dt><dd>flood effects of R$88.9 billion in one state, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Brazil\u2019s card sits beside its neighbours\u2019; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">SOUTH AMERICA REGIONAL EDITION<\/h3><p>One regional system<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Brazilian evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES<\/h3><p>Same findings, same IDs<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">In the global edition Brazil is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">GLOBAL FLAGSHIP<\/h3><p>Peers, not ranks<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and Brazil\u2019s national ownership of its edition is unaffected.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>27 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>NQ-BRA-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Estimativas da popula\u00e7\u00e3o residente no Brasil e unidades da federa\u00e7\u00e3o com data de refer\u00eancia em 1\u00ba de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Censo Demogr\u00e1fico 2022: popula\u00e7\u00e3o residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), \u201cPIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilh\u00f5es,\u201d Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), S\u00edntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), T\u00e1buas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domic\u00edlios Cont\u00ednua: Seguran\u00e7a Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Observat\u00f3rio do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: An\u00e1lise das emiss\u00f5es brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implica\u00e7\u00f5es para as metas clim\u00e1ticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observat\u00f3rio do Clima, S\u00e3o Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil\u2019s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Bras\u00edlia, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica (ed.), Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional 2026: Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia Legal para 2025 \u00e9 de 5.796 km\u00b2, Nota t\u00e9cnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edi\u00e7\u00e3o do Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, \u201c\u00c1rea queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milh\u00f5es de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,\u201d July 2026. Observation year: 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), \u201cBID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atua\u00e7\u00e3o tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,\u201d press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Bras\u00edlia, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil, \u201cCasos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milh\u00f5es; mortes somam 5,9 mil,\u201d January 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11\u00ba Levantamento da Safra de Gr\u00e3os 2025\/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil. CONAB, Bras\u00edlia. Observation year: 2025\/26 (agency estimate).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), people using safely managed drinking water and sanitation services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Brazil. World Bank, Washington DC, data release of 8 October 2026, which post-dates evidence close; see the edition notes. Observation year: 2024 (forest, water, sanitation) and 2025 (protected areas).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), \u201cIMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,\u201d Press Release No. 26\/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Minist\u00e9rio das Cidades (ed.), Sistema Nacional de Informa\u00e7\u00f5es em Saneamento B\u00e1sico, SINISA 2024 (reference year 2023): resultados e indicadores. Minist\u00e9rio das Cidades, Bras\u00edlia, 2025. Observation year: 2023 (listed as the source that would fill a gap; figures not used).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), \u201cSitua\u00e7\u00e3o nos munic\u00edpios,\u201d SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024).<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Servi\u00e7o Geol\u00f3gico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, \u201cDrought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,\u201d October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cb-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., \u201cThe new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,\u201d Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-bra-cb-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\">Brazil 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>14 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>48 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Estimativas da popula\u00e7\u00e3o residente no Brasil e unidades da federa\u00e7\u00e3o com data de refer\u00eancia em 1\u00ba de julho de 2026 (SIDRA table 6579). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 August 2026. Observation year: 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Censo Demogr\u00e1fico 2022: popula\u00e7\u00e3o residente por sexo e idade (SIDRA table 9514). IBGE, Rio de Janeiro. Observation year: 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), \u201cPIB cresce 2,3% em 2025 e fecha o ano em R$ 12,7 trilh\u00f5es,\u201d Contas Nacionais Trimestrais. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 March 2026. Observation year: 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), S\u00edntese de Indicadores Sociais 2025. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 3 December 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), T\u00e1buas Completas de Mortalidade 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 28 November 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Instituto Brasileiro de Geografia e Estat\u00edstica (ed.), Pesquisa Nacional por Amostra de Domic\u00edlios Cont\u00ednua: Seguran\u00e7a Alimentar 2024. IBGE, Rio de Janeiro, 10 October 2025, as reported in the press on the day of release. Observation year: 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026. FAO, Rome, 21 July 2026, Brazil results as reported by the Federal Government on 30 July 2026. Observation year: 2023 to 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Federative Republic of Brazil (ed.), Brazil\u2019s Nationally Determined Contribution: National determination to contribute and transform (second NDC). Submission to the UNFCCC, Bras\u00edlia, November 2024. Observation year: 2024 (2005 reference; target year 2035). <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>Observat\u00f3rio do Clima (ed.), SEEG 13: An\u00e1lise das emiss\u00f5es brasileiras de gases de efeito estufa e suas implica\u00e7\u00f5es para as metas clim\u00e1ticas do Brasil, 1970 a 2024. Observat\u00f3rio do Clima, S\u00e3o Paulo, November 2025, read from press reports and search excerpts of the release because the report PDF returned HTTP 403. Observation year: 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Empresa de Pesquisa Energ\u00e9tica (ed.), Balan\u00e7o Energ\u00e9tico Nacional 2026: Relat\u00f3rio S\u00edntese, ano base 2025. EPE and Minist\u00e9rio de Minas e Energia, Rio de Janeiro, 3 June 2026, updated 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Instituto Nacional de Pesquisas Espaciais (ed.), Estimativa de desmatamento na Amaz\u00f4nia Legal para 2025 \u00e9 de 5.796 km\u00b2, Nota t\u00e9cnica, Programa BiomasBR (PRODES). INPE, S\u00e3o Jos\u00e9 dos Campos, October 2025. Observation year: 2025 (August 2024 to July 2025). <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>MapBiomas Alerta (ed.), Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Desmatamento no Brasil, RAD 2025: Destaques (factsheet, version of 26 May 2026). MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 2026. Observation year: 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2024: primeiro Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo. MapBiomas, S\u00e3o Paulo, 24 June 2025. Observation year: 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>MapBiomas (ed.), RAF 2025: segunda edi\u00e7\u00e3o do Relat\u00f3rio Anual do Fogo no Brasil, released 21 July 2026, as reported by Correio Braziliense, \u201c\u00c1rea queimada no Brasil cai para 12,7 milh\u00f5es de hectares em 2025, aponta MapBiomas,\u201d July 2026. Observation year: 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>World Bank, Inter-American Development Bank and ECLAC (eds.), \u201cBID, CEPAL e Grupo Banco Mundial estimam que atua\u00e7\u00e3o tempestiva evitou impacto de 1,1 ponto percentual do PIB no Rio Grande do Sul,\u201d press release on the joint Damage and Loss Assessment of the 2024 floods. World Bank, Bras\u00edlia, 28 November 2024. Observation year: 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Governo do Estado do Rio Grande do Sul, Defesa Civil (ed.), \u201cSitua\u00e7\u00e3o nos munic\u00edpios,\u201d SOS Rio Grande do Sul, state portal, last updated 19 August 2025. Porto Alegre. Observation year: 2024 (event of April and May 2024). <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Minist\u00e9rio da Sa\u00fade (ed.), Painel de Monitoramento das Arboviroses, data to 28 December 2024, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil, \u201cCasos de dengue em 2024 passam de 6,4 milh\u00f5es; mortes somam 5,9 mil,\u201d January 2025. Observation year: 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year: 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>World Meteorological Organization (ed.), \u201cStrong El Ni\u00f1o expected to intensify,\u201d news release. WMO, Geneva, 31 July 2026. Observation year: 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 7<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>Instituto Nacional de Meteorologia (ed.), balan\u00e7o clim\u00e1tico de 2024: annual mean temperature 25.02 \u00b0C, 0.79 \u00b0C above the 1991 to 2020 mean, warmest year since 1961, as reported by Brazilian press, January 2025. INMET, Bras\u00edlia. Observation year: 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>Servi\u00e7o Geol\u00f3gico do Brasil (ed.), Negro River gauge at the port of Manaus, level of 12.66 m on 4 October 2024, as reported by the Associated Press, \u201cDrought has dried a major Amazon River tributary to its lowest level in over 122 years,\u201d October 2024. SGB, Manaus. Observation year: 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial and marine protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), people using safely managed drinking water and sanitation services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS, SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), Brazil. World Bank, Washington DC, data release of 8 October 2026, which post-dates evidence close; see the edition notes. Observation year: 2024 (forest, water, sanitation) and 2025 (protected areas). <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>Minist\u00e9rio das Cidades (ed.), Sistema Nacional de Informa\u00e7\u00f5es em Saneamento B\u00e1sico, SINISA 2024 (reference year 2023): resultados e indicadores. Minist\u00e9rio das Cidades, Bras\u00edlia, 2025. Observation year: 2023 (listed as the source that would fill a gap; figures not used). <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>Companhia Nacional de Abastecimento (ed.), 11\u00ba Levantamento da Safra de Gr\u00e3os 2025\/26, released 13 August 2026, as reported by Ag\u00eancia Brasil. CONAB, Bras\u00edlia. Observation year: 2025\/26 (agency estimate). <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>Minist\u00e9rio das Rela\u00e7\u00f5es Exteriores (ed.), \u201cOver USD 5.5 billion announced for Tropical Forest Forever Facility as 53 countries endorse the historic TFFF launch declaration.\u201d Government of Brazil, Bras\u00edlia, November 2025. Observation year: 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 15.042, de 11 de dezembro de 2024, institui o Sistema Brasileiro de Com\u00e9rcio de Emiss\u00f5es de Gases de Efeito Estufa (SBCE). Di\u00e1rio Oficial da Uni\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2024. Observation year: 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>Conselho Monet\u00e1rio Nacional (ed.), Resolu\u00e7\u00e3o CMN n\u00ba 4.943, de 15 de setembro de 2021, gerenciamento de riscos social, ambiental e clim\u00e1tico. Banco Central do Brasil, Bras\u00edlia, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (in force from 2022). <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 14.026, de 15 de julho de 2020, atualiza o marco legal do saneamento b\u00e1sico. Di\u00e1rio Oficial da Uni\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2020. Observation year: 2020. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 12.187, de 29 de dezembro de 2009, institui a Pol\u00edtica Nacional sobre Mudan\u00e7a do Clima. Di\u00e1rio Oficial da Uni\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2009. Observation year: 2009. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 12.608, de 10 de abril de 2012, institui a Pol\u00edtica Nacional de Prote\u00e7\u00e3o e Defesa Civil. Di\u00e1rio Oficial da Uni\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2012. Observation year: 2012. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Rep\u00fablica Federativa do Brasil (ed.), Lei n\u00ba 14.119, de 13 de janeiro de 2021, institui a Pol\u00edtica Nacional de Pagamento por Servi\u00e7os Ambientais. Di\u00e1rio Oficial da Uni\u00e3o, Bras\u00edlia, 2021. Observation year: 2021. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15\/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year: 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2015\u20132030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year: 2015. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNFCCC (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year: 2015. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year: 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>E. Castellanos, M. F. Lemos, L. Astigarraga et al., \u201cCentral and South America,\u201d in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the IPCC Sixth Assessment Report, chapter 12. Cambridge University Press, 2022. Observation year: 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. Observation year: 2024. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018. Observation year: 2018. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>T. E. Lovejoy and C. Nobre, \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h68\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 planet.biome-tipping.amazon-dieback\" data-tk=\"Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping \u00b7 Biome tipping elements\" data-td=\"Large-scale conversion of Amazon rainforest to degraded forest or savanna as drought, fire and clearing break its moisture recycling, releasing carbon and drying South American rainfall.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H68\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/planet\/\" data-txl=\"Planetary boundaries and Earth-system tipping\">Amazon tipping<\/a> point,\u201d Science Advances, vol. 4, no. 2, eaat2340, 2018. Observation year: 2018. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>B. M. Flores, A. Montoya, I. Staal et al., \u201cCritical transitions in the Amazon forest system,\u201d Nature, vol. 626, pp. 555\u2013564, 2024. Observation year: 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>C. A. Boulton, T. M. Lenton and N. Boers, \u201cPronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 12, 2022. Observation year: 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>D. M. Lapola, P. Pinho, J. Barlow et al., \u201cThe drivers and impacts of Amazon forest degradation,\u201d Science, vol. 379, eabp8622, 2023. Observation year: 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>R. Raj\u00e3o, B. Soares-Filho, F. Nunes et al., \u201cThe rotten apples of Brazil\u2019s agribusiness,\u201d Science, vol. 369, pp. 246\u2013248, 2020. Observation year: 2020. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>J.-C. Espinoza, J. C. Jimenez, J. A. Marengo et al., \u201cThe new record of drought and warmth in the Amazon in 2023 related to regional and global climatic features,\u201d Scientific Reports, vol. 14, article 8107, 2024. Observation year: 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>World Health Organization (ed.), \u201cDengue: global situation,\u201d Disease Outbreak News, 2024-DON518. WHO, Geneva, 30 May 2024. Observation year: 2024 (to 30 April). <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>International Monetary Fund (ed.), \u201cIMF Executive Board Concludes 2026 Article IV Consultation with Brazil,\u201d Press Release No. 26\/257, with staff projections. IMF, Washington DC, 23 July 2026. Observation year: 2025 (staff estimates) and 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-bra-ref-48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.<\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Brazil <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Edition 2026\u20132030<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>Q1 2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2027-Q1-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-bra-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">BRA<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-bra-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-NAT-BRA-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Brazil; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Brazil\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Brazil&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Brazil\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Brazil\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Brazil\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Brazil, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Brazil for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Brazil&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Country Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Brazil&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Country Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-bra-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-bra-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>BRA edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Brazil 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; BRA is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Brazil.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Country Systems Risk and Resilience<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/bra\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><p class=\"nx-note\" data-nr-rights=\"true\"><a class=\"nx-link\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.<\/p><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-bra-full-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-bra-full-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-bra-full-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/model\/scenarios\/urban-flood\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Urban flood<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/risk-information-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Risk information standards and interoperability<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/data\/identification-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Identification (the UNI)<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script><style>@media print { @page { margin: 20mm 17mm 20mm 17mm; @top-left { content: \"Nexus Reports\"; font: 500 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @top-right { content: \"Brazil Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026 \\0000b7  Baseline Edition 2026\"; font: 400 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Sans\", sans-serif; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-left { content: \"NR-COUNTRY-BRA-2026-BASELINE \\0000b7  Draft, not released\"; font: 400 7pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-center { content: \"CC BY 4.0. Free to read. 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