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\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class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">European Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The State of the European Union\u2019s Interdependent Systems<\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">EU<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Country Systems Risk and Resilience<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">European Union 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\">The State of the European Union\u2019s Interdependent Systems<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut NQ-EU-2026-Q0-1<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). European Union <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of the European Union\u2019s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. The Union\u2019s risk is shared across borders and unevenly insured<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Compound summer of heat, drought and fire<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\">European Union 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>The European Union enters 2027 with falling emissions, a rising share of renewable energy and a set of shared hazards that cross every border. Net domestic greenhouse-gas emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024, and the legal 2040 target is a 90% net cut<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>. Renewables supplied 25.2% of gross final energy in 2024 against a 2030 target of 42.5%, and imports still cover 57% of energy needs<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>. Russian gas fell from 45% of gas imports to 12% in 2025, and a phase-out regulation has been in force since 3 February 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>. Europe was warmer than ever recorded in 2024, a study models 62,775 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> in 32 European countries in that summer<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>, and the EU burnt a record 1,079,538 hectares in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup>. Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of losses from 1980 to 2024, and less than 20% was privately insured<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup>. This Baseline Edition fixes the 2026 reference state for the Union\u2019s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, maps the couplings through which heat, supply and price shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It ranks nothing and decides nothing.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the European Union baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Net domestic emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024; the 2040 target is 90%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Where do emissions stand?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Net imports cover 57% of energy needs, and renewables reached 25.2% of final energy.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How secure is energy supply?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Its share of gas imports fell to 12% in 2025, and a phase-out regulation is in force.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What changed for Russian gas?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A study models 62,775 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> in 32 European countries in summer 2024.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is heat now a health hazard?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Scarcity touched 28% of EU land and 32% of people in 2023.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How much water stress is there?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A record 1,079,538 hectares burnt, about 39% inside Natura 2000 sites.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What did the 2025 fire season show?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Less than 20% of EUR 822 billion of losses was privately insured.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Who carries the losses?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A summer of heat, drought and fire across several member states, met by tight energy supply. SCN-EU-CLI-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will Q1 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of economic losses in the EU from 1980 to 2024, a quarter of it between 2021 and 2024, and less than 20% of the total was privately insured.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-fig1-t\">EU weather and climate losses (EUR billion, 2024 prices)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Cumulative 1980 to 2024<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">822<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">of which 2021 to 2024<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"25.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">208<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: EEA economic losses indicator<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">Losses are concentrated in a small share of events, and most of the cost falls outside private insurance, so public budgets and households carry much of it. An EIOPA and ECB paper proposes a two-pillar EU scheme to narrow the gap; it is a proposal, not law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">452.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>population, 1 January 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">22.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>aged 65 or over, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">40<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>net domestic emissions below 1990, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">57<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>energy import dependency, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">25.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>renewables in final energy, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">27<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">member states<\/span><p>in the Union at evidence close<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports a coupled reading of the Union\u2019s risk: heat, drought and fire are rising, imports still shape energy security, and finance is thin.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a fire or a bill.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Less than 20% of losses were privately insured, and an EIOPA and ECB proposal for an EU-level scheme is under discussion.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The Union is strong at monitoring and law-making and thinner at keeping water, health care and supply running through simultaneous multi-country events.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the state of the European Union\u2019s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a national <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/glossary\/risk-assessment\/\" data-tgl=\"Nexus Standards glossary\">risk assessment<\/a>, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04\/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201c25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEnergy in Europe: imports dependency.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023\/2413 amending the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>T. Jano\u0161, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., \u201cHeat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,\u201d Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Joint Research Centre (ed.), \u201c2025 was the EU\u2019s most destructive <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> season on record.\u201d News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cEconomic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Water scarcity<\/a> conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a> for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU population continued to grow in 2025.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cs-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\">European Union 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The Union\u2019s risk is shared across borders and unevenly insured<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no member state.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>19 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is the European Union\u2019s risk concentrated, and in which <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?<\/li><li>Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?<\/li><li>What must the 2027 programme measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five system chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>The European Union is a single market, a shared energy system and a set of river basins, coasts and forests that no member state holds alone. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: a warming climate that intensifies heat, drought and fire, an energy system that still imports most of what it burns, and an older population that is more exposed to heat.<\/p><p>The climate layer is rising. 2024 was the warmest year on record for Europe, and in 2025 at least 95% of the continent was above average, with Europe warming more than twice as fast as the global average<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>. A study models 62,775 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> in 32 European countries in summer 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>, and the EU burnt a record 1,079,538 hectares in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The energy layer is changing fast. Net domestic emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024, and renewables supplied 25.2% of final energy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Imports still cover 57% of energy needs, and the Russian share of EU gas imports fell from 45% to 12% in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. A regulation to phase out Russian gas has applied since February 2026, with long-term LNG contracts ending on 1 January 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The demographic layer shapes who is hurt. 22.0% of the population was 65 or over in 2025, and deaths have exceeded births since 2012, so population growth now depends on migration<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>. Older residents are the most exposed to heat, and 33.2% of farm managers are 65 or over<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Beneath these sits finance. Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of losses from 1980 to 2024, a quarter of it in 2021 to 2024, and less than 20% was privately insured<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup>. EIOPA and the ECB have proposed an EU-level scheme to narrow the gap; it is a proposal, not law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>This edition therefore reads the Union\u2019s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-fig1-t\">How far has the EU cut emissions, and how far is left? Net emissions as a share of 1990 (%)<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Net emissions on the target basis stood at 63% of the 1990 level in 2024 (derived from a 37% cut). The 2030 target leaves 45% and the 2040 target 10%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">1990 base<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">100<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2024, 2030 target basis<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"63.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">63<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2030 target<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"45.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">45<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">2040 target<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"10.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">10<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">40<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>net domestic cut since 1990, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">58<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>fall in power and heat emissions since 1990<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">54<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>cut expected by 2030 with planned measures<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">90<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>net cut legislated for 2040<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The European Union matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nuclear cooling \u00b7 hydro<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation \u00b7 rain-fed yield<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">drinking water<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 treatment<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fuel \u00b7 fertiliser \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">facility power \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">reservoirs \u00b7 land use<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">withdrawals \u00b7 nutrients<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">biofuel feedstock<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition \u00b7 food safety<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour \u00b7 disease<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fire on lines \u00b7 biomass<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination \u00b7 soils<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses \u00b7 smoke<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Heat raises deaths, mainly among older people.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> summer 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 BIO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Heat and drought feed <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> that burns protected sites.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> fires 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Warmer seasons let mosquito-borne disease spread locally.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> chikungunya 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Drought and heat cut water for crops and rivers.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> scarcity 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 ENE \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Gas and fertiliser supply shocks pass into food costs.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> import dependence<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.4<\/span><span>Reinforcing loops<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Loop<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First direction<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Second direction<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to biodiversity: flows \u00b7 wetlands<\/td><td>Biodiversity to water: regulation \u00b7 filtration<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Food to biodiversity: land conversion<\/td><td>Biodiversity to food: pollination \u00b7 soils<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"3\">A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>T. Jano\u0161, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., \u201cHeat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,\u201d Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Joint Research Centre (ed.), \u201c2025 was the EU\u2019s most destructive <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> season on record.\u201d News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04\/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201c25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEnergy in Europe: imports dependency.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU population continued to grow in 2025.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cEconomic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08\/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c1-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Water scarcity<\/a> conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c1-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\">European Union 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>4 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>18 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of economic losses in the EU from 1980 to 2024, a quarter of it between 2021 and 2024, and less than 20% of the total was privately insured.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-fig1-t\">EU weather and climate losses (EUR billion, 2024 prices)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Cumulative 1980 to 2024<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">822<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">of which 2021 to 2024<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"25.3\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">208<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: EEA economic losses indicator<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Losses are concentrated in a small share of events, and most of the cost falls outside private insurance, so public budgets and households carry much of it. An EIOPA and ECB paper proposes a two-pillar EU scheme to narrow the gap; it is a proposal, not law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">Insured-loss data for 2025 events, reforms of national schemes and any legislative proposal at EU level would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Climate forcing<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Net domestic greenhouse-gas emissions were 40% below 1990 in 2024 and 3% below 2023; on the 2030 target basis the cut was 37%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">A 90% net cut by 2040 is now in the European Climate Law, and Member States collectively expect 54% by 2030 against a 55% target.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">2024 was the warmest year on record for Europe, and at least 95% of Europe was above average in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Renewables supplied 25.2% of gross final energy consumption in 2024, 17.3 points below the 42.5% target for 2030.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Net imports covered 57% of EU energy needs in 2024, and oil made up 67% of energy imports.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Trade<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-TRD-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-TRD-005\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-TRD-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The Russian share of EU gas imports fell from 45% to 12% in 2025, and a regulation to phase out Russian gas has been in force since 3 February 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Health<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">A peer-reviewed study models 62,775 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">heat-related deaths<\/a> in 32 European countries in summer 2024.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Water<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-WAT-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\"><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Water scarcity<\/a> conditions affected 28% of EU land and 32% of the EU population in at least one season in 2023.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Biodiversity<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The EU burnt 1,079,538 hectares in 2025, the highest since records began in 2006; about 39% fell inside Natura 2000 sites.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Weather and climate extremes caused about EUR 822 billion of losses from 1980 to 2024, and less than 20% was privately insured.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.9<\/span><span>Food<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FOO-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FOO-011\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-FOO-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The EU had 9.1 million farms in 2020, 5.3 million fewer than in 2005, and 33.2% of farm managers were 65 or over.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.10<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a summer of heat, drought and fire across several member states at once, met by tight energy supply. \u00a79.3<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cEconomic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a> for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04\/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08\/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201c25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023\/2413 amending the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEnergy in Europe: imports dependency.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>T. Jano\u0161, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., \u201cHeat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,\u201d Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Water scarcity<\/a> conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Joint Research Centre (ed.), \u201c2025 was the EU\u2019s most destructive <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> season on record.\u201d News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c2-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c2-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\">European Union 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>19 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WAT \u00b7 Water<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EU land under water scarcity in at least one season<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">28<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>About 32% of the population lived in those areas in 2023.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2023<\/span><span>EEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Energy<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Renewables in gross final energy consumption<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">25.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>The 2030 target is 42.5%; the gap was 17.3 points.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>Eurostat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FOO \u00b7 Food<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Farm managers aged 65 or over<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">33.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Only 11.9% of managers were under 40.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2020<\/span><span>Eurostat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HLT \u00b7 Health<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Modelled heat-related deaths, 32 European countries, summer<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">62,775<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p>A peer-reviewed estimate, not a registry count.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>Jano\u0161 et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">BIO \u00b7 Biodiversity<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EU land in protected areas<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">26.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Marine areas 12.3%, against 30% by 2030 for both.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2022<\/span><span>EEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Cross-system<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Weather and climate losses, cumulative<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">822<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">EUR billion<\/span><p>Less than 20% was privately insured.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>1980 to 2024<\/span><span>EEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Scarcity touched 28% of EU land and 32% of people in 2023; abstraction fell 14% since 2000.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT \u2192 HLT \u00b7 WAT \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Renewables 25.2% of final energy; 57% of energy imported.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2190 TRD \u00b7 ENE \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>9.1 million farms in 2020; a third of managers 65 or over.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2190 TRD, ENE, WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>Modelled heat deaths of 62,775 in summer 2024; local dengue and chikungunya now recorded.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT \u2190 CLI, WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Protected land 26.1% and sea 12.3% in 2022; record burnt area in 2025.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO \u2194 WAT, FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>Warmest year on record for Europe in 2024; warming over twice the global rate.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">forcing on all systems<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Duties on critical entities and network security are in law; asset condition is not assessed here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>Losses of EUR 822 billion since 1980; less than 20% privately insured.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN \u2190 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2192 ENE, FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>The AI Act is in force; EU-wide data-centre power and water demand is not shown.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 ENE, WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>The Critical Raw Materials Act sets 2030 benchmarks; current import concentration is not shown.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2190 TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Imports cover 57% of energy; the Russian gas share fell to 12% in 2025.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD \u2192 all<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>compound heat, drought, fire and energy stress<\/td><td>summer stress met by tight supply<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>scarcity on 28% of land<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>drought; flood<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>renewables 25.2%; imports 57%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>gas supply shock; peak demand<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food<\/td><td>9.1 million farms; ageing managers<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>input import shocks<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>62,775 modelled heat deaths<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>; local arboviruses<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heat surge; <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/health\/biological-hazard-standards\/\">vector-borne disease<\/a><\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td>EUR 822 billion losses; under 20% insured<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>catastrophe fiscal cost<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>uneven exposure across member states<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>service strain in exposed regions<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>warmest year 2024; 95% of Europe above average 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>heat; marine heatwaves<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td>civil protection mechanism; stockpiling strategy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>simultaneous events in several states<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>critical-entity rules in law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>cross-border grid and pipeline links<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>urban heat exposure not mapped at city scale here<\/td><td>heat; flooding<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>protected land 26.1%; record burnt area<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>fire; land use<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>annual Copernicus reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>continuity<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>duties in NIS2<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup>; dependencies not mapped<\/td><td>systemic outages<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>Climate Law and 2040 target<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>; preparedness strategy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>coordination across 27 states<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>EEA, JRC and Copernicus assessments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>translation to member-state scale<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Water scarcity<\/a> conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201c25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>T. Jano\u0161, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., \u201cHeat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,\u201d Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cProtected areas,\u201d in Europe\u2019s environment 2025: biodiversity and ecosystems. EEA, Copenhagen, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cEconomic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEnergy in Europe: imports dependency.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/glossary\/risk-assessment\/\" data-tgl=\"Nexus Standards glossary\">Risk Assessment<\/a>, EEA Report 01\/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>European Commission and High Representative (eds.), EU Preparedness Union Strategy. Joint Communication, Brussels, 26 March 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), EU Stockpiling Strategy, COM(2025) 528. Brussels, 9 July 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Decision No 1313\/2013\/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, as amended. Official Journal of the European Union, 2013.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022\/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Joint Research Centre (ed.), \u201c2025 was the EU\u2019s most destructive <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> season on record.\u201d News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022\/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity (NIS2). Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c3-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\">European Union 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>4 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>22 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-EU-CLI-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Heat, drought and wildfire in a single season<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>longer, hotter summers<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>southern and central member states; forests and protected sites<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>older population; scarcity on 28% of land<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>civil protection mechanism and rescEU<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 WAT, HLT, BIO, ENE<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>seasonal<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-EU-ENE-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Gas supply disruption during the Russian phase-out<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>loss of remaining Russian volumes or an LNG price spike<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>power, industry, heating<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>imports cover 57% of energy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>storage rules and stockpiling strategy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>TRD \u2192 ENE \u2192 FOO, FIN<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-EU-FIN-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Uninsured catastrophe losses reach public budgets<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>floods, storms, heat and fire<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>households and public infrastructure<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>less than 20% of losses insured<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>national schemes; an EIOPA and ECB proposal<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 FIN \u2192 public budgets<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>annual<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-EU-HLT-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Heat and vector-borne disease load on health systems<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>longer summers and warmer seasons for mosquitoes<\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>older adults; southern regions<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>22.0% of the population aged 65 or over<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>ECDC surveillance in operation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 HLT \u2192 ENE peak<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>seasonal<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>European Climate Law and 2040 target in force<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>annual Copernicus, EEA and Eurostat reporting<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>EFFIS fire monitoring in operation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>Preparedness Union Strategy, March 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup>; <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>gas storage rules and stockpiling strategy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>Union Civil Protection Mechanism and rescEU in law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>critical-entity and network-security duties<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>recovery funding routes not assessed in this edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>Water Resilience Strategy and Nature Restoration Regulation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>not assessed in this edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>national schemes; under 20% of losses insured<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>EU crisis hub set out in the strategy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>asset condition not mapped at public-safe resolution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>not assessed in this edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>EEA, JRC and Copernicus assessments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Water scarcity<\/a> conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Decision No 1313\/2013\/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, as amended. Official Journal of the European Union, 2013.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEnergy in Europe: imports dependency.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2022\/1032 on gas storage. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), EU Stockpiling Strategy, COM(2025) 528. Brussels, 9 July 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cEconomic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Joint Research Centre (ed.), \u201c2025 was the EU\u2019s most destructive <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> season on record.\u201d News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>European Commission and High Representative (eds.), EU Preparedness Union Strategy. Joint Communication, Brussels, 26 March 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-reduction\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Preventing new risk, reducing existing risk and managing residual risk, all contributing to resilience.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Risk Reduction<\/a> 2015 to 2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022\/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022\/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity (NIS2). Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. Communication, Brussels, 4 June 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c4-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/glossary\/risk-assessment\/\" data-tgl=\"Nexus Standards glossary\">Risk Assessment<\/a>, EEA Report 01\/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\">European Union 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Compound summer of heat, drought and fire<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>4 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a prolonged <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/energy-nexus\/\" data-tal=\"Energy Nexus\">heatwave<\/a> and drought across several southern and central member states, with <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> and a tight gas market in the same season<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>summer 2024 heat deaths<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c5-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>; the 2025 fire season<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c5-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">prolonged heat raises deaths, mainly among older people<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">summer 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c5-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 BIO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\"><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> burns forest and protected sites<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">fires 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c5-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 WAT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">scarcity spreads across basins<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">scarcity 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c5-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">WAT \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">heat and low flows strain cooling and raise peak demand<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">to be bound in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">tight supply while cooling is most needed<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">to be bound in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">HLT \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">uninsured losses fall on public budgets<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">losses 1980 to 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c5-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01 would travel through European Union&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Climate to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Prolonged heat raises deaths, mainly among older people. Analogue or source: summer 2024 [17].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition EU, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Climate to biodiversity<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\"><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Wildfire<\/a> burns forest and protected sites. Analogue or source: fires 2025 [22].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition EU, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Climate to water<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Scarcity spreads across basins. Analogue or source: scarcity 2023 [19].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition EU, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Water to energy<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Heat and low flows strain cooling and raise peak demand. Analogue or source: to be bound in 2027.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition EU, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Energy to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Tight supply while cooling is most needed. Analogue or source: to be bound in 2027.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition EU, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Health to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Uninsured losses fall on public budgets. Analogue or source: losses 1980 to 2024 [23].<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition EU, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">European Union 2026, scenario SCN-EU-CLI-01<\/a> (2026); European Union 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>T. Jano\u0161, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., \u201cHeat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,\u201d Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c5-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Joint Research Centre (ed.), \u201c2025 was the EU\u2019s most destructive <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> season on record.\u201d News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c5-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Water scarcity<\/a> conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c5-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c5-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cEconomic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c5-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\">European Union 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>13 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>39 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports a coupled reading of the Union\u2019s risk: heat, drought and fire are rising, imports still shape energy security, and finance is thin. Evidence is strongest for emissions, energy and climate monitoring, and weakest for care capacity, fertiliser dependence and digital dependencies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">CLI-001 \u00b7 ENE-004 \u00b7 FIN-010 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people risk arrives as a heatwave, a fire or a bill. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how an older population changes who is exposed, and how a shared market spreads supply and price shocks across borders.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">HLT-007 \u00b7 BIO-009 \u00b7 TRD-005<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Less than 20% of losses were privately insured, and an EIOPA and ECB proposal for an EU-level scheme is under discussion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or a recommendation to invest.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-010 \u00b7 CLI-002<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The Union is strong at monitoring and law-making and thinner at keeping water, health care and supply running through simultaneous multi-country events. The 2027 programme should map cross-border dependencies, test the compound summer and measure gas, fertiliser and care exposure.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 A-01 \u00b7 A-02<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for the European Union. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability have been developed?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests reveal?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What did the year establish, and what changes next?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>European Union<\/td><td>national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups<\/td><td>national Commons room<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. National adoption of any standard is a decision of the national standards council.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Heat, drought and fire do not stop at a border, and neither do the markets that carry their effects. The baseline treats the Union as one coupled system whose states carry unequal exposure, not as 27 separate ones.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>The risk is shared<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Net imports cover 57% of energy needs. The fall of Russian gas to 12% of imports is real, but the system now depends on other suppliers and on storage. Energy security is a trade question as much as a domestic one.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Security is imported<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Floods and fires make headlines, but heat arrives every summer. A study models tens of thousands of heat-related deaths a year, mostly among older people, in a population that is ageing.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Heat is the everyday disaster<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">When less than a fifth of losses is privately insured, the rest falls on households and public budgets. How the Union spreads that cost is a design choice that is still open.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Insurance decides who pays<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from working groups, consortium institutions and invited experts begin with the Q1 2027 edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Q1 2027 readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First Q1 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td>National risk state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 7 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>NWG delivery register<\/td><td>no groups yet<\/td><td>first monthly outputs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>NNC capability register<\/td><td>membership opens in Q1 2027<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>NLC questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>environment prepared<\/td><td>first sealed cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first correction cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no public authority.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SUBMITTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">UNDER REVIEW<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>European Climate Law as amended, Regulation (EU) 2026\/667<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Parliament \u00b7 Council<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>2030 and 2040 targets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a> and EU nationally determined contribution, 2035 range of 66.25% to 72.5%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNFCCC \u00b7 EU<\/td><td>international<\/td><td>SUBMITTED 2025<\/td><td>emissions pathway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewable Energy Directive (EU) 2023\/2413<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Parliament \u00b7 Council<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>42.5% by 2030<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Regulation (EU) 2026\/261 on Russian gas<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Parliament \u00b7 Council<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE 2026<\/td><td>gas supply<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nature Restoration Regulation (EU) 2024\/1991<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Parliament \u00b7 Council<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>restoration plans<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Directives (EU) 2022\/2557 and 2022\/2555<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Parliament \u00b7 Council<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>critical entities, network security<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical Raw Materials Act, Regulation (EU) 2024\/1252<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Parliament \u00b7 Council<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>supply benchmarks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kunming-Montreal Framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CBD<\/td><td>international<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2022<\/td><td>30by30<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AI Act, Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Parliament \u00b7 Council<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE \u00b7 PHASED<\/td><td>digital and compute<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The 90% net cut for 2040 entered the Climate Law in 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Union submitted its 2035 range in November 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Russian gas phase-out regulation took effect on 3 February 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Long-term LNG ban from 1 January 2027 and pipeline gas phase-out by 30 September 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Status and extension of the gas storage rules<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Application dates under the AI Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. A change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the European Union\u2019s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Lee and Romero (eds.)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>forcing<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>McElwee et al. (eds.)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>nexus interlinkages<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zscheischler et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>compound events<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Jano\u0161 et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>heat mortality<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>European Climate <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/glossary\/risk-assessment\/\" data-tgl=\"Nexus Standards glossary\">Risk Assessment<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>risk clusters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Foundational Edition<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>edition<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>series model<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional reports<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Europe\u2019s environment 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>water, nature<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trends and projections 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>emissions pathway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water Resilience Strategy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Commission<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>water policy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness Union Strategy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Commission<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>capabilities<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Stockpiling Strategy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Commission<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>reserves<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Official statistics and national sources<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GHG inventory 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EEA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewables and imports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Eurostat<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population and demography<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Eurostat<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Farm structure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Eurostat<\/td><td>2023 to 2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>food<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Locally acquired disease<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ECDC<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>health<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Industry, loss data and international sources<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a> dashboard<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EIOPA<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>protection gap<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EIOPA and ECB joint paper<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EIOPA \u00b7 ECB<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>scheme design<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Economic losses indicator<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>losses<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Wildfire<\/a> season 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>JRC<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>fire<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus global baseline<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>GCRI<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>series peers<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Europe is warming faster than the global average<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Heat and fire exposure is rising across the continent<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Ageing increases vulnerability to heat<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How to compare inventory and target bases of net emissions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How fast renewables can close the gap to 42.5%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How many heat deaths each member state records, since the study is modelled<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from Q1 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cEconomic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Council of the European Union (ed.), Updated nationally determined contribution of the European Union with a 2035 range of 66.25% to 72.5% net reduction against 1990. Submission to the UNFCCC, November 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNFCCC (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>. United Nations, Paris, 2015.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023\/2413 amending the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022\/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022\/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity (NIS2). Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1252 establishing a framework for secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15\/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2022\/1032 on gas storage. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>T. Jano\u0161, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., \u201cHeat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,\u201d Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/glossary\/risk-assessment\/\" data-tgl=\"Nexus Standards glossary\">Risk Assessment<\/a>, EEA Report 01\/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe\u2019s environment 2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 29 September 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08\/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. Communication, Brussels, 4 June 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>European Commission and High Representative (eds.), EU Preparedness Union Strategy. Joint Communication, Brussels, 26 March 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), EU Stockpiling Strategy, COM(2025) 528. Brussels, 9 July 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04\/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201c25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEnergy in Europe: imports dependency.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU population continued to grow in 2025.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a> for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Joint Research Centre (ed.), \u201c2025 was the EU\u2019s most destructive <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> season on record.\u201d News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\">European Union 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a season of heat, drought and fire hit health, water, farming and power across several member states at once?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-EU-CLI-01 \u00b7 compound summer stress; first output: dependency graph for two southern regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How resilient is gas supply through the Russian phase-out, with storage, LNG and pipeline routes?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-EU-ENE-02 \u00b7 gas supply resilience; first output: route-and-storage register.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How exposed are food <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> to fertiliser and feed import shocks?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-EU-FOO-03 \u00b7 food input exposure; first output: input dependence table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How much heat-health surge capacity exists, and where do mosquito-borne diseases add load?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-EU-HLT-04 \u00b7 heat and new diseases; first output: surge baseline for five regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where do flood, fire and storm losses fall on the uninsured, and on public budgets?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-EU-FIN-05 \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a>; first output: peril-by-member-state loss table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do shared river basins perform under drought and flood?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-EU-WAT-01 \u00b7 workstream; first output: basin performance note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How resilient are critical raw material and digital supply chains to concentrated supply?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">EU capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-EU-CLI-01<\/span><\/td><td>Compound summer stress across member states<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-EU-ENE-02<\/span><\/td><td>Gas supply resilience through the Russian phase-out<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-EU-FOO-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food input exposure<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-EU-HLT-04<\/span><\/td><td>Heat, ageing and new diseases<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-EU-FIN-05<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>A-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PRJ-EU-CLI-01a<\/span><\/td><td>Two-region compound stress graph<\/td><td>Project<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-EU-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Compound summer Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>A-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">European Union is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in the European Union from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">One National Agenda<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">bounded national questions for the year<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">DRAFT 2027 \u00b7 agenda review at the Q1 alignment<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Desk<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">coordination, records, routing and continuity<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">DESIGNED \u00b7 constituted in Q1 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the country as a system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with the first Foundry cut<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National Portfolio<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">7 PROPOSED \u00b7 admission at the Q1 alignment<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Foundry<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">continuous computational environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PREPARED \u00b7 first sealed cut NQ-EU-2027-Q1<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Reports<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">quarterly and annual publication<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE ISSUED \u00b7 Q1 2027 \u00b7 State &amp; Agenda<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate set in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">after-action, correction and renewal<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in Q2 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>Q4 2027 annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-EU-2027-01 \u00b7 Compound summer Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor (NLC) \u00b7 Institutional anchor (NNC) \u00b7 Mission lead (NWG)<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>CLI-001 \u00b7 emissions<\/td><td>public record<\/td><td>reference for the 2027 series<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENE-004 \u00b7 imports<\/td><td>INI-EU-ENE-02<\/td><td>gas supply resilience<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TRD-005 \u00b7 Russian gas<\/td><td>INI-EU-ENE-02<\/td><td>route-and-storage register<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HLT-007 \u00b7 heat<\/td><td>INI-EU-HLT-04<\/td><td>heat and new diseases<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>BIO-009 \u00b7 fire<\/td><td>INI-EU-CLI-01<\/td><td>two-region graph<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FOO-011 \u00b7 farms<\/td><td>INI-EU-FOO-03<\/td><td>input exposure<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-010 \u00b7 losses<\/td><td>INI-EU-FIN-05 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-EU-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the national pathway<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. Competent authorities receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from Q1 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h24\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.fire-weather-extreme\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"Hot, dry and windy conditions over dry fuels in which any ignition spreads fast and suppression fails.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Fire danger<\/a> and burnt area<\/td><td>JRC \u00b7 EFFIS<\/td><td>in season<\/td><td>RSK-EU-CLI-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Drought information<\/td><td>JRC \u00b7 European Drought Observatory<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>WAT findings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Locally acquired arbovirus cases<\/td><td>ECDC<\/td><td>weekly in season<\/td><td>HLT-007<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gas storage filling<\/td><td>Gas Infrastructure Europe<\/td><td>daily<\/td><td>RSK-EU-ENE-002<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate monitoring<\/td><td>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>CLI findings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy statistics<\/td><td>Eurostat<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>ENE findings<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Greenhouse-gas inventory<\/td><td>EEA<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI-001<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">quarterly publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-EU-001<\/td><td>Record burnt area in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c7-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 BIO<\/td><td>risk object RSK-EU-CLI-001<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-EU-002<\/td><td>Locally acquired chikungunya in France and Italy, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c7-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>HLT \u00b7 CLI<\/td><td>initiative A-04<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-EU-003<\/td><td>Russian gas at 12% of imports in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c7-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>ENE \u00b7 TRD<\/td><td>research question A-02<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Joint Research Centre (ed.), \u201c2025 was the EU\u2019s most destructive <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> season on record.\u201d News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c7-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c7-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c7-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c7-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\">European Union 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>20 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Water, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Water stress is a growing feature of the Union, and its response so far is a strategy with a non-binding efficiency aim.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">28<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of EU land under scarcity in at least one season, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">32<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of the population in those areas, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u221214<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>abstraction 2000 to 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Scarcity<\/td><td>28% of land and 32% of people in 2023<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Abstraction<\/td><td>down 14% since 2000, scarce area not reduced<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Policy<\/td><td>framework law since 2000; efficiency aim of at least 10% by 2030, not binding<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Drought extent<\/td><td>not shown: JRC drought observatory; no dated EU-only release read<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT SOURCED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>WAT \u2192 HLT drinking water and sanitation<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 WAT drought and heat<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 FOO irrigation<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 ENE cooling and hydropower<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>EU-wide drought extent<\/li><li>basin-level shared-water use<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The next WEI+ update, seasonal drought information, and any efficiency targets that member states set under the strategy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Water services rest with member states and local authorities; this chapter assesses none of them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Energy, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Emissions are falling and renewables reached 25.2% of final energy in 2024, but imports cover 57% of energy needs and the 2030 renewables target is 17.3 points away.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">25.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>renewables in final energy, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">57<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>energy import dependency, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Russian share of gas imports, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Power and heat<\/td><td>emissions down 58% since 1990<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Imports<\/td><td>oil 67% and gas 24% of energy imports in 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Russian gas<\/td><td>phase-out regulation in force from 3 February 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data-centre demand<\/td><td>not shown: IEA regional data; Europe-only figure seen only in secondary coverage<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT SOURCED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>TRD \u2192 ENE gas and fuel imports<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 FOO fertiliser and farm energy<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 ENE peak demand and river flow<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 HLT cooling and heating<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>gas storage depth before winter<\/li><li>data-centre electricity demand<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The long-term LNG ban from 1 January 2027, gas storage levels before winter, and the status of the storage rules<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Energy decisions rest with the EU institutions, member states, regulators and operators; this chapter assesses none of them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Farms are fewer and their managers older. Dependence on imported fertiliser and feed matters for food security, but this edition cannot yet show it with sourced numbers.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>farms in 2020, 5.3 million fewer than 2005<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">33.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of farm managers aged 65 or over, 2020<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of farmland organic, 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Farms<\/td><td>9.1 million in 2020, about 37% fewer than 2005<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>33.2% of managers 65 or over; 11.9% under 40<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Organic<\/td><td>10.5% of farmland in 2022, against a 25% aim for 2030<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fertiliser<\/td><td>not shown: import share by origin; Eurostat trade data, no primary figure read<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT SOURCED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>TRD \u2192 FOO imports of inputs<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 FOO fuel and fertiliser costs<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 FOO heat and drought<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 FOO irrigation<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>fertiliser and feed import shares<\/li><li>yield loss in drought years<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Fertiliser and feed prices, the next farm structure survey, and the organic share against the 2030 aim.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes the food system; it makes no statement on agricultural or trade policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Europe is ageing and warming. Heat now causes tens of thousands of modelled deaths a summer, and mosquito-borne diseases have begun to spread locally.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">62,775<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">deaths<\/span><p>modelled heat deaths, 32 countries, summer 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">22.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>aged 65 or over, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">35<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">cases<\/span><p>local dengue, France, Italy and Portugal, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Ageing<\/td><td>22.0% aged 65 or over; median age 44.9<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat<\/td><td>modelled deaths in 32 European countries, summer 2024<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Vector-borne<\/td><td>chikungunya 788 in France, 384 in Italy; dengue 35 in 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Care capacity<\/td><td>not shown: hospital and care surge capacity; no comparable EU figure read<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT SOURCED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>CLI \u2192 HLT heat<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 HLT cooling and power<\/li><li>WAT \u2192 HLT drinking water<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 HLT disease vectors<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>EU-only subtotal of heat deaths<\/li><li>care surge capacity<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Summer heat alerts, ECDC weekly counts of locally acquired cases, and national surge-capacity figures.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Health and care rest with member states. No personal health data are used or shown in Reports.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Protection is growing but short of 30%, and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> burnt a record area in 2025, about four hectares in ten inside Natura 2000 sites.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of land protected, 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">12.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of sea protected, 2022<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1,079,538<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">ha<\/span><p>burnt in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Protection<\/td><td>land 26.1%, sea 12.3% against 30% by 2030<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Law<\/td><td>Nature Restoration Regulation in force<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fire<\/td><td>about 39% of the burnt area inside Natura 2000 sites<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Condition<\/td><td>not shown: habitat and species condition; no current EEA figure read<\/td><td>n\/a<\/td><td>NOT SOURCED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings into other systems<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>BIO \u2192 WAT watershed regulation<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 FOO pollination and soils<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 BIO heat, drought and fire<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>habitat condition<\/li><li>strictly protected share<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Designation progress towards 30%, national restoration plans under the regulation, and the next fire season<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-n28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Biodiversity is not reduced to a single number. Where valuation is used later, it will never be presented as the whole value.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Water scarcity<\/a> conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. Communication, Brussels, 4 June 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive 2000\/60\/EC establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy (Water Framework Directive). Official Journal of the European Communities, 2000.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201c25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEnergy in Europe: imports dependency.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04\/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2022\/1032 on gas storage. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU organic farming: 16.9 million hectares in 2022.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 19 June 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030: Bringing nature back into our lives, COM(2020) 380. Brussels, 2020.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>T. Jano\u0161, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., \u201cHeat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,\u201d Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cProtected areas,\u201d in Europe\u2019s environment 2025: biodiversity and ecosystems. EEA, Copenhagen, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Joint Research Centre (ed.), \u201c2025 was the EU\u2019s most destructive <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> season on record.\u201d News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-c8-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-c8-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\">European Union 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>12 tables<\/span><span>7 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Share of 1990 net emissions remaining, 2024 (target basis)<\/td><td>100 \u2212 37<\/td><td>63%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Points still to cut by 2030<\/td><td>55 \u2212 37<\/td><td>18 points<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Average cut needed a year, 2024 to 2030<\/td><td>18 \u00f7 6<\/td><td>3.0 points<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Renewables gap to the 2030 target<\/td><td>42.5 \u2212 25.2<\/td><td>17.3 points<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, National Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-EU-NATIONAL \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent the European Union as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> with forcing and transmission layers<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of systems<\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from evidence and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>national scale; not for member state or asset-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the coupled reading of risk in the European Union.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, operational decisions, provincial comparisons or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>NQ-EU-2026-Q0-1<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>49 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>NQ-EU-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Q1 2027<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>qualified source bindings with versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>National Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to the cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Net GHG emissions<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Apr 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy import dependency<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Mar 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewables share<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Dec 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population<\/td><td>1 Jan 2026<\/td><td>Jul 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">Heat-related deaths<\/a><\/td><td>summer 2024<\/td><td>Sep 2025<\/td><td>study<\/td><td>not scheduled<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Water scarcity<\/a><\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>Nov 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Burnt area<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Mar 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Economic losses<\/td><td>1980 to 2024<\/td><td>Oct 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>annual<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Protected areas<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>Sep 2025<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Farm managers<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>Apr 2023<\/td><td>census cycle<\/td><td>census cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Climate forcing<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>EU-wide drought extent<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>gas storage depth and data-centre demand<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>care surge capacity; EU-only heat deaths<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>drought extent and basin-level use<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>fertiliser and feed import shares<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>habitat condition outside protected sites<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>insured share of recent events<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Digital<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>dependency mapping<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the European Environment Agency for the European Commission under the UNFCCC and the Paris Agreement. Annual, covering 1990 to 2024. Role: binds CLI-001 and the emission figures, with the domestic and target bases kept apart.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-EU-001<\/h3><p>GHG inventory 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the European Environment Agency. Annual update, published October 2025 for 1980 to 2024. Role: binds FIN-010 and the loss and insured-share figures.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-EU-002<\/h3><p>Economic losses indicator<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-EU-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-EU-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>all sectors and gases, net domestic<\/td><td>recorded events only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 15 months after the year<\/td><td>about 10 months after the year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>annual back-revision<\/td><td>dataset revised each update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>published inventory document<\/td><td>published indicator method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>UNFCCC review process<\/td><td>not stated in sources read<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Trends and projections<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup> (projection scenarios)<\/li><li>Eurostat renewables<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup> (target accounting)<\/li><li>JRC fire monitoring<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup> (counting rules)<\/li><li>EIOPA dashboard<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup> (insured-share definitions)<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>CBD<\/td><td>Convention on Biological Diversity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ECB<\/td><td>European Central Bank<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ECDC<\/td><td>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EEA<\/td><td>European Environment Agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EFFIS<\/td><td>European <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h24\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">Forest Fire<\/a> Information System<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EIOPA<\/td><td>European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EU<\/td><td>European Union<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EUCRA<\/td><td>European Climate <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/glossary\/risk-assessment\/\" data-tgl=\"Nexus Standards glossary\">Risk Assessment<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GHG<\/td><td>greenhouse gas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>JRC<\/td><td>Joint Research Centre<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LNG<\/td><td>liquefied natural gas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NDC<\/td><td>nationally determined contribution<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UAA<\/td><td>utilised agricultural area<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNFCCC<\/td><td>United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEI+<\/td><td>Water Exploitation Index plus<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the baseline indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-EU-CLI-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>Q1 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>Q2 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Member state notes<\/td><td>atlas cards for every member state<\/td><td>Q2 2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition, net greenhouse-gas emissions, target basis<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>annual emissions minus removals, as defined for the 2030 target<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>percent change against 1990<\/dd><dt>Scope<\/dt><dd>EU territory plus a share of international aviation and navigation<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>EEA Trends and projections<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>; Climate Law<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Revision<\/dt><dd>revised with each annual inventory submission<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>the inventory shows 40% domestic against 37% on the target basis in 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04\/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cEconomic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08\/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201c25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Joint Research Centre (ed.), \u201c2025 was the EU\u2019s most destructive <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> season on record.\u201d News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a> for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ca-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-ca-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\">European Union 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>9 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>7 tables<\/span><span>21 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Net domestic GHG emissions, change since 1990<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u221240<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Net GHG emissions, 2030 target basis<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u221237<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewables in gross final energy<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">25.2<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy import dependency<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">57<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Russian share of EU gas imports<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">12<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">452.0<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>1 Jan 2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Aged 65 or over<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">22.0<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>1 Jan 2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h75\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.climate-sensitive.heat-illness-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Climate-sensitive illness\" data-td=\"A rise in heatstroke, dehydration and heat-worsened heart, lung and kidney illness during hot spells, overwhelming emergency care and killing older and isolated people.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H75\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">Heat-related deaths<\/a>, 32 countries (modelled)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">62,775<\/span><\/td><td>deaths<\/td><td>summer 2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Land under <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">water scarcity<\/a>, one season<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">28<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population in those areas<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">32<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Burnt area<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1,079,538<\/span><\/td><td>hectares<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Weather and climate losses<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248822<\/span><\/td><td>EUR billion<\/td><td>1980 to 2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Share of losses privately insured<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&lt;20<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>1980 to 2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Protected land<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">26.1<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Protected sea<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">12.3<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Farms<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">9.1<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Farm managers aged 65 or over<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">33.2<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Locally acquired chikungunya, France \u00b7 Italy<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">788 \u00b7 384<\/span><\/td><td>cases<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" 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download=\"NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22European%20Union%20Systems%20Risk%20and%20Resilience%20Report%202026%3A%20The%20State%20of%20the%20European%20Union%E2%80%99s%20Interdependent%20Systems%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Net%20domestic%20GHG%20emissions%2C%20change%20since%201990%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%88%9240%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Net%20GHG%20emissions%2C%202030%20target%20basis%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%88%9237%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Renewables%20in%20gross%20final%20energy%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2225.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Energy%20import%20dependency%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2257%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Russian%20share%20of%20EU%20gas%20imports%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2212%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Population%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22452.0%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221%20Jan%202026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B13%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Aged%2065%20or%20over%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2222.0%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221%20Jan%202025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B14%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Heat-related%20deaths%2C%2032%20countries%20(modelled)%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2262%2C775%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22deaths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22summer%202024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B17%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Land%20under%20water%20scarcity%2C%20one%20season%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2228%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B19%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Population%20in%20those%20areas%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2232%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B19%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Burnt%20area%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221%2C079%2C538%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22hectares%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B22%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Weather%20and%20climate%20losses%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88822%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22EUR%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221980%20to%202024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B23%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Share%20of%20losses%20privately%20insured%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3C20%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221980%20to%202024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B23%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Protected%20land%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2226.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B27%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Protected%20sea%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2212.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B27%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Farms%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%229.1%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222020%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B30%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Farm%20managers%20aged%2065%20or%20over%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2233.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222020%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B31%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Locally%20acquired%20chikungunya%2C%20France%20%C2%B7%20Italy%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22788%20%C2%B7%20384%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22cases%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B33%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>The Union\u2019s reference period varies by indicator. Shown as empty states, by design, because no primary figure was read at evidence close: fertiliser import shares by origin (source: Eurostat trade data; blocker: not read at the release); EU-wide data-centre electricity demand (source: IEA regional data; blocker: Europe-only figure seen only in secondary coverage); EU-wide drought extent (source: JRC drought observatory; blocker: no dated EU-only release read); hospital and care surge capacity (source: national and Eurostat health data; blocker: no comparable EU figure read); habitat condition (source: EEA nature reporting; blocker: current figure not read); EU-only subtotal of heat deaths (source: the study data; blocker: not in the sources read). A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>National source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GHG inventory 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU agency<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>1990 to 2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 ENE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Trends and projections<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU agency<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>to 2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>ENE<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>REPowerEU and gas regulation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU institutions<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>per act<\/td><td>TRD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Population statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>profile<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of the climate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU service \u00b7 UN agency<\/td><td>Europe<\/td><td>2024 to 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>CLI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat mortality study<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>peer-reviewed<\/td><td>32 countries<\/td><td>summer 2024<\/td><td>study<\/td><td>HLT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Water scarcity<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU agency<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>WAT<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fire monitoring<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU research centre<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>BIO<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Economic losses<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU agency<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>1980 to 2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>FIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Disease surveillance<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EU agency<\/td><td>EU\/EEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>seasonal<\/td><td>HLT<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading, European Union by member state<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates for every member state follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Population, 1 January 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">452.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>European Union<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">83.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>largest member state<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">0.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>smallest member state<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16 of 27<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">states<\/span><p>population grew in 2025<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading, European Union by member state<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Southern member states<\/td><td>heat, drought, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a><\/td><td>water, health, farming, forests<\/td><td>EUCRA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup>; heat deaths<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>; fires 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Central and eastern member states<\/td><td>heat, floods<\/td><td>water, farming<\/td><td>State of the Climate 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Northern member states<\/td><td>heat spells, marine heatwaves<\/td><td>health, ecosystems<\/td><td>Fennoscandia <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.heatwave\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"A spell of abnormally high temperature, often with warm nights, that overloads bodies, power grids and crops.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\" data-ta=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/courses\/energy-nexus\/\" data-tal=\"Energy Nexus\">heatwave<\/a> 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Western member states<\/td><td>storms, floods, heat<\/td><td>infrastructure, insurance<\/td><td>loss series<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Member states most dependent on imported energy<\/td><td>supply and price shocks<\/td><td>energy, industry<\/td><td>dependency 98% to 5% across states<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Union as a whole<\/td><td>cross-border compound events<\/td><td>all <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/td><td>losses EUR 822 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any member state.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Atlas card, Southern Europe in summer<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">member state group<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Mediterranean<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">heat and fire<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">water scarcity<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>water, health, forests and protected sites, farming<\/dd><dt>Defining events<\/dt><dd>heat deaths in summer 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup>; record burnt area in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 HLT; CLI \u2192 BIO; CLI \u2192 WAT<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>EFFIS monitoring and the civil protection mechanism<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>drought extent; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h61\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.cascade.health-system-overload\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Cascading failure\" data-td=\"Demand for care exceeding capacity, from a surge of cases or injuries or from loss of staff and supplies, so that avoidable deaths rise.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H61\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">hospital surge<\/a> capacity; irrigation demand<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>A-01 \u00b7 A-04<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">In 2023 water scarcity conditions affected 28% of EU land and 32% of the population in at least one season [19].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">WATER<\/h3><p>Scarcity touches a third of people<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">A study models 62,775 heat-related deaths in summer 2024, and ECDC recorded local chikungunya in France and Italy in 2025 [17] [33].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">HEALTH<\/h3><p>Heat and new diseases<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">EFFIS recorded 1,079,538 hectares burnt in the EU in 2025, about 39% inside Natura 2000 sites [22].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">FIRE<\/h3><p>A record burnt area<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Atlas cards are generated for every member state from Q2 2027 with consistent fields and evidence-age labels. Southern Europe is shown first because it holds the leading compound pathway.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>European Union system card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The card through which the European Union appears in the Europe regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">European Union system card<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline state<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Water<\/td><td>scarcity on 28% of land<\/td><td>drought into farming and health<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy<\/td><td>renewables 25.2%; imports 57%<\/td><td>import disruption<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food<\/td><td>ageing farm managers<\/td><td>input shocks<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Health<\/td><td>ageing; heat; new diseases<\/td><td>heat and disease load<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>protected land 26.1%<\/td><td>fire and land use<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Context<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Archetype<\/dt><dd>union of 27 member states with a shared market, energy system and basins<\/dd><dt>Population<\/dt><dd>452.0 million (1 January 2026)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Trade<\/dt><dd>imports cover 57% of energy needs<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Hazard<\/dt><dd>losses of EUR 822 billion, 1980 to 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">European Union\u2019s card sits beside its neighbours\u2019; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EUROPE REGIONAL EDITION<\/h3><p>One regional system<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">EU evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES<\/h3><p>Same findings, same IDs<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">In the global edition the European Union is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">GLOBAL FLAGSHIP<\/h3><p>Peers, not ranks<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and the European Union\u2019s national ownership of its edition is unaffected.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>18 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>NQ-EU-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04\/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08\/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201c25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEnergy in Europe: imports dependency.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU population continued to grow in 2025.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>T. Jano\u0161, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., \u201cHeat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,\u201d Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7<\/a><a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Water scarcity<\/a> conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Joint Research Centre (ed.), \u201c2025 was the EU\u2019s most destructive <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> season on record.\u201d News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cEconomic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cProtected areas,\u201d in Europe\u2019s environment 2025: biodiversity and ecosystems. EEA, Copenhagen, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/glossary\/risk-assessment\/\" data-tgl=\"Nexus Standards glossary\">Risk Assessment<\/a>, EEA Report 01\/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cb-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Decision No 1313\/2013\/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, as amended. Official Journal of the European Union, 2013.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-eu-cb-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\">European Union 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>12 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>49 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Annual European Union greenhouse gas inventory 1990 to 2024 and inventory document 2026, EEA Report 04\/2026. EEA, Copenhagen, 17 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Trends and projections in Europe 2025, EEA Report 08\/2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 6 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>European Commission, DG Climate Action (ed.), EU Climate Action Progress Report 2025: Strengthening competitiveness on the road to climate neutrality. European Commission, Brussels, 2025; progress page updated 7 January 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/667 amending Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 (2040 target). Official Journal of the European Union, 18 March 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2021\/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union, 2021. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>Council of the European Union (ed.), Updated nationally determined contribution of the European Union with a 2035 range of 66.25% to 72.5% net reduction against 1990. Submission to the UNFCCC, November 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201c25.2% of energy EU used in 2024 came from renewables.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 December 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEnergy in Europe: imports dependency.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 18 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>European Commission, DG Energy (ed.), REPowerEU roadmap: ending dependence on Russian energy. European Commission, Brussels, page read 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2026\/261 on the phase-out of Russian natural gas imports. Official Journal of the European Union, 2 February 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2023\/2413 amending the Renewable Energy Directive (RED III). Official Journal of the European Union, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2022\/1032 on gas storage. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU population continued to grow in 2025.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 10 July 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Demography of Europe, 2026 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, May 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>Copernicus <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025. ECMWF, Bonn, 29 April 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Copernicus Climate Change Service and World Meteorological Organization (eds.), European State of the Climate 2024. ECMWF, Bonn, 15 April 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>T. Jano\u0161, M. Quijal-Zamorano, N. Shartova et al., \u201cHeat-related mortality in Europe during 2024 and health emergency forecasting to reduce preventable deaths,\u201d Nature Medicine, September 2025. doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.1038\/s41591-025-03954-7<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), Europe\u2019s environment 2025. EEA, Copenhagen, 29 September 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201c<a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h10\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 water.deficit.supply-shortfall\" data-tk=\"Water systems \u00b7 Water deficit\" data-td=\"Demand exceeding the water a system can deliver, so that rationing or cuts follow for homes, farms and industry.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H10\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/water\/\" data-txl=\"Water systems\">Water scarcity<\/a> conditions in Europe (Water exploitation index plus).\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 28 November 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), European Water Resilience Strategy. Communication, Brussels, 4 June 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive 2000\/60\/EC establishing a framework for Community action in the field of water policy (Water Framework Directive). Official Journal of the European Communities, 2000. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>Joint Research Centre (ed.), \u201c2025 was the EU\u2019s most destructive <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/wildfire-and-vegetation-fire-standards\/\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.wildfire.wildfire\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Vegetation and peat fire\" data-td=\"An uncontrolled fire in forest, scrub or grass that burns structures, crops and habitat and fills the air with smoke.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H24\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">wildfire<\/a> season on record.\u201d News, European Commission, Ispra, 31 March 2026, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cEconomic losses from weather- and climate-related extremes in Europe.\u201d Indicator, EEA, Copenhagen, 14 October 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), European Climate <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 risk-assessment\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The overall process of identifying, analysing and evaluating risk to inform decisions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/glossary\/risk-assessment\/\" data-tgl=\"Nexus Standards glossary\">Risk Assessment<\/a>, EEA Report 01\/2024. EEA, Copenhagen, March 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority (ed.), Dashboard on insurance <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">protection gap<\/a> for natural catastrophes. EIOPA, Frankfurt, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority and European Central Bank (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management. Joint paper, Frankfurt, 18 December 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>European Environment Agency (ed.), \u201cProtected areas,\u201d in Europe\u2019s environment 2025: biodiversity and ecosystems. EEA, Copenhagen, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1991 on nature restoration. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), EU Biodiversity Strategy for 2030: Bringing nature back into our lives, COM(2020) 380. Brussels, 2020. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU farms: 5.3 million fewer in 2020 than in 2005.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 3 April 2023, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), Regions in Europe, 2025 edition. Interactive publication, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 2025, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>Eurostat (ed.), \u201cEU organic farming: 16.9 million hectares in 2022.\u201d News article, Eurostat, Luxembourg, 19 June 2024, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of chikungunya virus disease in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 31 December 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>European Centre for Disease Prevention and Control (ed.), Seasonal surveillance of dengue in the EU\/EEA, 2025, data submitted to 19 November 2025. ECDC, Stockholm, retrieved 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022\/2557 on the resilience of critical entities. Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Directive (EU) 2022\/2555 on measures for a high common level of cybersecurity (NIS2). Official Journal of the European Union, 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1252 establishing a framework for secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Regulation (EU) 2024\/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence. Official Journal of the European Union, 2024. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>European Commission and High Representative (eds.), EU Preparedness Union Strategy. Joint Communication, Brussels, 26 March 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>European Commission (ed.), EU Stockpiling Strategy, COM(2025) 528. Brussels, 9 July 2025. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>European Parliament and Council (eds.), Decision No 1313\/2013\/EU on a Union Civil Protection Mechanism, as amended. Official Journal of the European Union, 2013. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNDRR (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/hazards\/sendai-framework-alignment\/\">Sendai Framework<\/a> for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15\/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNFCCC (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/climate\/paris-agreement-and-ndc-alignment\/\">Paris Agreement<\/a>. United Nations, Paris, 2015. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054. <a class=\"nrp-doi\" href=\"https:\/\/doi.org\/10.5281\/zenodo.13850054\" rel=\"noopener\">doi:10.5281\/zenodo.13850054<\/a> <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., \u201cFuture climate risk from compound events,\u201d Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469\u2013477, 2018. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026\u20132030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-eu-ref-49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>European Union <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Edition 2026\u20132030<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>Q1 2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2027-Q1-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-eu-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">EU<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-eu-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-NAT-EU-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for European Union; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20European%20Union\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20European%20Union&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20European%20Union\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20European%20Union\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20European%20Union\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on European Union, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on European Union for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on European Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026.&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;European Union&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Country Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;European Union&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Country Systems Risk &amp; Resilience Report&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-eu-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-eu-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>EU edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> European Union 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; EU is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on European Union.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Country Systems Risk and Resilience<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/eu\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><p class=\"nx-note\" data-nr-rights=\"true\"><a class=\"nx-link\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.<\/p><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-eu-full-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-eu-full-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-eu-full-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/model\/scenarios\/urban-flood\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Urban flood<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/risk-information-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Risk information standards and interoperability<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/data\/identification-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Identification (the UNI)<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script><style>@media print { @page { margin: 20mm 17mm 20mm 17mm; @top-left { content: \"Nexus Reports\"; font: 500 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @top-right { content: \"European Union Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026 \\0000b7  Baseline Edition 2026\"; font: 400 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Sans\", sans-serif; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-left { content: \"NR-COUNTRY-EU-2026-BASELINE \\0000b7  Draft, not released\"; font: 400 7pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-center { content: \"CC BY 4.0. 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