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\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offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\u2019s Energy System.<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GS-02<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Global Sector Risk and Resilience<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Global Energy 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\u2019s Energy System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Energy is where the systems meet<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\">Global Energy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>9 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>The world enters 2027 with an energy system that is growing, electrifying and under strain at the same time. Global energy demand grew 1.3% in 2025 and electricity demand grew nearly 3%, more than twice as fast<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Solar supplied more than a quarter of the growth in energy demand, and renewables (33.8%) edged ahead of coal (33.0%) in global electricity generation for the first time<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Energy-related CO2 emissions still reached a record of more than 38 Gt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>. Investment is estimated at USD 3.4 trillion in 2026, with about USD 1.6 trillion in electricity supply and infrastructure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Access is unfinished: 655 million people lacked electricity in 2024 and about 2.0 billion relied mainly on polluting fuels for cooking<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>. Security of supply is the sharpest pressure. The Middle East conflict that began on 28 February 2026 cut flows through the Strait of Hormuz, IEA members made a record emergency oil release, and EIA assumes flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>. Critical minerals add a second chokepoint: refining is concentrated and export controls have spread<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. Data centres are a fast-growing load, about 415 TWh in 2024 and about 945 TWh by 2030 in the IEA base case<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It ranks no country and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the energy baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Energy demand grew 1.3% in 2025 and electricity nearly 3%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How fast is energy demand growing?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Solar led growth; renewables edged past coal in generation.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What is changing in supply?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">No. Energy CO2 reached a record above 38 Gt, up about 0.4%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Are emissions falling?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About USD 3.4 trillion in 2026, with electricity supply and infrastructure at USD 1.6 trillion.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Where is the money going?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">655 million without electricity and about 2.0 billion cooking with polluting fuels.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Who still lacks energy?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Hormuz flows were cut from March 2026 and remain constrained in the EIA outlook.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How secure is fuel supply?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Refining is concentrated and export controls have tripled in scope.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Do minerals add risk?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A fuel shock that coincides with heat and grid stress. SCN-GS02-LNG-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">In 2024, 655 million people lacked electricity and about 2.0 billion people relied mainly on polluting fuels for cooking.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-fig1-t\">People without services, 2024 (million)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Without electricity<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"32.8\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">655<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Relying on polluting cooking fuels<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">2,000<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: SDG 7 custodian agencies, Extended Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">The access gap is now concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, which holds 563 million of the people without electricity and 970 million of those without clean cooking. Affordability is a binding constraint: only about 22% of households without access can afford the monthly payments for a basic solar home system<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>growth in energy demand, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u22483<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>growth in electricity demand, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">33.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>renewables in global electricity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>investment, 2026e<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">655<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>without electricity, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">945<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">TWh<\/span><p>data centres by 2030, base case<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading energy as the coupling layer of the WEFH+B system.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people energy risk arrives as a power cut, a higher bill or a cooking fire.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Investment is high, price volatility has risen and public finance for minerals is growing.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The energy system is well measured at the level of demand and generation and thinly measured at the level of equipment, constraints and water.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the 2026 state of the world\u2019s energy system and the couplings through which it carries risk into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not an energy-security ranking, a forecast of prices, a supply recommendation or an assessment of any utility, regulator, producer or government. Energy policy, markets and operations rest with national authorities, system operators and companies.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 energy edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb\/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb\/d and demand 102.5 mb\/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency\u2019s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb\/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\">Global Energy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Energy is where the systems meet<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>11 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is energy risk concentrated?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry energy shocks into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which energy capabilities hold under compound stress?<\/li><li>What must 2027 evidence measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five coupling chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Energy is usually reported as a sector: fuels, power, prices. The 2026 evidence reads it as the medium through which almost every other system\u2019s risk travels. Water pumping and cooling, fertiliser and cold chains, clinics and cooking, and the digital economy all rest on it<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>The supply side is changing at the margin. Solar was the largest source of growth in energy demand in 2025, and renewables edged past coal in global generation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>. Yet fossil fuels still supplied about 86% of primary energy<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>, and energy-related CO2 reached a record above 38 Gt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Security is the sharpest pressure. After the conflict began on 28 February 2026, flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply, IEA members made a record emergency oil release and EIA assumes flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>. The same shock reached LNG, aluminium and sulphur markets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>Electricity is the common thread. It grew more than twice as fast as energy demand in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>, data centres are an increasing share of it<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup>, and the grids that carry it fail in ways that are only now understood, as the Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a> shows<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>. Access remains unfinished for 655 million people<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-fig1-t\">How far is the world from universal energy access? People without services, 2024 (million)<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">The cooking gap is about three times the electricity gap. Both are concentrated in the same places, so they compound each other\u2019s effects on health and time use<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Polluting cooking fuels<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">2000<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Without electricity<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"32.8\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">655<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">563<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>without electricity in Sub-Saharan Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">970<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>cooking with polluting fuels in Sub-Saharan Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">22<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of unserved households can afford a basic solar home system<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">300<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>Mission 300 target for Africa by 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The energy-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for their energy content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydro \u00b7 cooling water<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation pumping load<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">supply and treatment<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">reservoir flows<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 treatment \u00b7 desalination<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fuel \u00b7 fertiliser \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">clean cooking \u00b7 clinics \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">mining \u00b7 land use<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">withdrawals<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bioenergy \u00b7 diesel pumping<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land for biofuel<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">catchments<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">biomass \u00b7 hydrology<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 ENE \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A heat wave raises cooling demand while supply is short; clinics and homes lose power.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> 2022 Europe and Asia heat; 2025 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Fuel, fertiliser and acid price shocks reach farms and food prices.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2026 sulphur and fertiliser disruption<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">MIN \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Export controls on minerals slow power equipment and batteries.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2025 rare-earth and graphite controls<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 ENE \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A chokepoint closure lifts prices and strains importers\u2019 budgets.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2026 Hormuz closure<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">AIC \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Clustered data-centre load tightens local grids.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> US growth in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.4<\/span><span>Reinforcing loops<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Loop<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First direction<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Second direction<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Water to energy: hydro \u00b7 cooling water<\/td><td>Energy to water: pumping \u00b7 treatment \u00b7 desalination<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"3\">A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb\/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb\/d and demand 102.5 mb\/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency\u2019s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb\/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a>: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c1-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\">Global Energy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the energy baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">In 2024, 655 million people lacked electricity and about 2.0 billion people relied mainly on polluting fuels for cooking.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-fig1-t\">People without services, 2024 (million)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Without electricity<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"32.8\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">655<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Relying on polluting cooking fuels<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">2,000<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: SDG 7 custodian agencies, Extended Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The access gap is now concentrated in Sub-Saharan Africa, which holds 563 million of the people without electricity and 970 million of those without clean cooking. Affordability is a binding constraint: only about 22% of households without access can afford the monthly payments for a basic solar home system<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The next SDG 7 report, the pace of Mission 300 connections and the affordability of off-grid solar would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Energy<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Global energy demand grew 1.3% (8 EJ) in 2025, down from 2% in 2024, and electricity demand grew nearly 3%, more than twice as fast.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Solar PV met more than 25% of the growth in global energy demand in 2025, and low-emissions sources together met nearly 60%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Renewables supplied 33.8% of global electricity in 2025 and coal 33.0%; fossil generation fell 38 TWh, the first annual fall since 2020.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-009\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Qatar\u2019s Ras Laffan LNG complex has been offline since early March 2026, removing nearly a fifth of global LNG supply, after a build-out of about 300 bcm a year of new LNG capacity was expected by 2030.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Climate forcing<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Energy-related CO2 emissions rose about 0.4% in 2025 to a record of more than 38 Gt.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Global energy investment is estimated at USD 3.4 trillion in 2026, against USD 2.6 trillion in 2015, with electricity supply and infrastructure at about USD 1.6 trillion.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>AIC<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-006\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Data centres used about 415 TWh in 2024, about 1.5% of global electricity, and the IEA base case reaches about 945 TWh by 2030.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Health<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">655 million people lacked electricity in 2024 and about 2.0 billion relied mainly on polluting fuels for cooking.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Governance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply after 28 February 2026; IEA members released a record 400 million barrels, and EIA assumes flows stay constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Minerals<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The top refining country\u2019s average share of key energy minerals rose to 72% in 2025 from 70% in 2023, excluding rare earths, and the mineral tariff codes under Chinese export controls tripled since 2023.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.9<\/span><span>Infrastructure<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-011\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a> of 28 April 2025 came from interacting factors, including voltage control gaps, oscillations and generator disconnections, according to the ENTSO-E final report of 20 March 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.10<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a fuel supply shock that coincides with a hot, high-demand season and a stressed grid. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Gas 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030 (Gas Market Report, Q4-2025). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, full report (clean energy about USD 2.2 trillion and fossil fuels about USD 1.2 trillion in search summaries). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb\/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb\/d and demand 102.5 mb\/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency\u2019s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb\/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a>: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\">Global Energy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>10 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Energy<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Growth in global energy demand<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>8 EJ; 2% in 2024.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">ENE \u00b7 Electricity<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Renewables share of generation<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">33.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>Coal 33.0%.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>Ember<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CLI \u00b7 Climate<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Energy-related CO2 emissions<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;38<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Gt<\/span><p>up about 0.4%; a new record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Finance<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Global energy investment<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">3.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD trillion<\/span><p>estimate; USD 2.6 trillion in 2015.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026e<\/span><span>IEA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HLT \u00b7 Health<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People without electricity<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">655<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>and about 2.0 billion cook with polluting fuels.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2024<\/span><span>SDG 7<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Cross-system<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Brent crude, fourth-quarter average (forecast)<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">91<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">USD a barrel<\/span><p>EIA September outlook assumes Middle East flows stay constrained.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>EIA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through energy, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries energy risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Pumping, treatment and desalination need power; hydropower and cooling depend on flows. Volumes of energy-sector water use are not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2194 WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Demand up 1.3%, electricity nearly 3%; solar led growth; renewables 33.8% of generation; fuel security under strain.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Fertiliser and acid supply chains were hit by the Hormuz closure; cold chains and irrigation depend on power.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>655 million without electricity; about 2.0 billion cook with polluting fuels; heat raises cooling demand.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Mining, hydropower and land for supply chains press on nature; the evidence is not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 BIO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>Energy CO2 at a record above 38 Gt; weather swings demand for heating and cooling.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Grids, pipelines, ports and shipping lanes carry the system; the Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a> shows how voltage control failures cascade.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2194 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>USD 3.4 trillion of annual investment; price spikes and volatility from the 2026 fuel shock.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td>Grid operators and regulators publish operational data; global coverage is uneven.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2192 ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>Data centres about 415 TWh in 2024, 945 TWh by 2030 in the base case; clusters concentrate load.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Refining of energy minerals is concentrated; export controls have tripled in scope; copper deficit projected to 2035.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 ENE<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Seaborne oil and LNG trade passes chokepoints; US LNG exports grow; sulphur, aluminium and helium were disrupted.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2194 TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on energy, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>energy couples every other system<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>fuel shock under heat<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>pumping, cooling and hydropower depend on each other<\/td><td>drought and heat<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>demand 1.3%, electricity nearly 3%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>fuel shock; grid stress<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food<\/td><td>fertiliser and sulphur supply disrupted<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>fuel and acid price shock<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>655 million without electricity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>cooling and clinic supply<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td>USD 3.4 trillion of investment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>price volatility<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>2.0 billion cook with polluting fuels<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>affordability of access<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>record energy CO2 above 38 Gt<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>weather-driven demand<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a> of 28 April 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>cascading outages<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>grids, pipelines and ports carry the system<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>equipment lead times<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>electrified heat and transport raise load<\/td><td>peak demand<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>mining and hydropower pressures<\/td><td>land and flow alteration<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>weather and satellite data support operations<\/td><td>continuity of missions<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>control <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> of utilities<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>attacks on energy systems<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>market design and security instruments<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>emergency measures<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>strong energy-system modelling<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>grid and minerals data<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a>: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024\/1366 establishing a network code on cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1747 amending Regulations (EU) 2019\/942 and (EU) 2019\/943 on the electricity market design, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Davis, S.J. et al., Net-zero emissions energy <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, Science 360(6396), eaas9793, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c3-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\">Global Energy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four energy risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>4 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS02-ENE-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Seaborne oil and LNG chokepoint disruption<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>conflict-related closure or damage affecting Hormuz flows and Qatari LNG<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>importing economies, refiners, power <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> burning gas or oil<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>thin spare capacity; limited bypass routes<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>emergency stocks; bypass pipelines; demand response<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>ENE \u2192 FIN, FOO, HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS02-INF-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Power-system stability with high inverter-based supply<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>rapid change in the generation mix and voltage control gaps<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>synchronous grids and large cities<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>uneven stabilisation capability; coordination gaps<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>reactive power requirements; grid-forming equipment; operator coordination<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>ENE \u2192 HLT, WAT, INF<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS02-MIN-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Critical-mineral export controls and refining concentration<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>export controls and concentrated refining<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>batteries, grid equipment, magnets, solar supply chains<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>single dominant refiners; thin stockpiles<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>diversification projects; strategic stockpiles; recycling<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>MIN \u2192 ENE, INF<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 10 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS02-AIC-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Concentrated data-centre load on local grids<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>rapid growth of AI and digital services<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>local grids in a few clusters; nearly half of US capacity sits in five clusters<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>long lead times for connections and equipment<\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>flexible load; on-site supply; planning and tariffs<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>AIC \u2192 ENE \u2192 FIN, HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for energy at the global level.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>efficiency and reliability standards widespread; implementation uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>market and operational data strong in advanced grids; thin elsewhere<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>weather-linked demand forecasts and grid alerts; fuel-market early warning is partial<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>adequacy assessments published for several grids<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>record coordinated oil stock release in March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>emergency measures and demand response used in 2022 and 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>priority supply for hospitals and water works in many <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>; testing uneven<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>Iberian system restored after the 2025 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a>; reasons studied in a final report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>storage, flexibility and diversified supply growing<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 social-protection\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Public policies and programmes that help people manage risk and reduce poverty and vulnerability across their lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Social protection<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>energy support for poor households documented but not consolidated<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>investment of USD 3.4 trillion; public finance for minerals rising<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>IEA collective action; network codes in the EU<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>grids ageing in places; equipment lead times a constraint<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>skills gaps reported across the energy sector<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>strong energy-system science; data access uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb\/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb\/d and demand 102.5 mb\/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency\u2019s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb\/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a>: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy Efficiency 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 50001:2018, Energy management <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>: requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: NERC (ed.), Long-Term Reliability Assessment, 2025 edition, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Atlanta, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024\/1366 establishing a network code on cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Employment 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Davis, S.J. et al., Net-zero emissions energy systems, Science 360(6396), eaas9793, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c4-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\">Global Energy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Fuel supply shock under a hot, high-demand season<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>2 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a disruption to seaborne oil and LNG supply that coincides with a heat wave and high cooling demand in several importing regions<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>2022 energy crisis; the 2026 Hormuz disruption<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">seaborne oil and LNG supply falls; spot prices rise<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022 \u00b7 2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 ENE<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">heat raises cooling demand while hydro and thermal output are limited<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 INF<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">voltage and frequency control tighten; outage risk rises<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">fuel and fertiliser costs reach farms and food prices<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022 \u00b7 2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">rationing and outages affect clinics, cooling and cold chains<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">import bills and subsidies strain public budgets<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2022<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01 would travel through Global Energy&#8217;s coupled <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Trade to energy<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Seaborne oil and LNG supply falls; spot prices rise. Analogue or source: 2022 \u00b7 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Climate to energy<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Heat raises cooling demand while hydro and thermal output are limited. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Energy to infrastructure<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Voltage and frequency control tighten; outage risk rises. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Energy to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Fuel and fertiliser costs reach farms and food prices. Analogue or source: 2022 \u00b7 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Energy to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Rationing and outages affect clinics, cooling and cold chains. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Energy to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Import bills and subsidies strain public budgets. Analogue or source: 2022.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-02, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Global Energy 2026, scenario SCN-GS02-LNG-01<\/a> (2026); Global Energy 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb\/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb\/d and demand 102.5 mb\/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c5-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\">Global Energy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The energy baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>15 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>43 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading energy as the coupling layer of the WEFH+B system. Demand and electrification are rising, supply is changing fastest at the margin, and security of supply is the sharpest pressure. Evidence is strongest for demand and generation, and weakest for grid constraints and energy-sector water use.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">ENE-001 \u00b7 ENE-003 \u00b7 GOV-008 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people energy risk arrives as a power cut, a higher bill or a cooking fire. The baseline asks that public debate treat energy as shared infrastructure for health, food and water, and keep the 655 million without electricity in view alongside the security story.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">HLT-007 \u00b7 GOV-008 \u00b7 ENE-001<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Investment is high, price volatility has risen and public finance for minerals is growing<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-005 \u00b7 MIN-010<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The energy system is well measured at the level of demand and generation and thinly measured at the level of equipment, constraints and water. The 2027 programme should bind regional grid evidence, test the fuel shock under heat, and map mineral chokepoints before they become delays.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 E-01 \u00b7 E-04<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for energy. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability exist?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests show?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What changed in the year, and what renews?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> sector desks<\/td><td>energy chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, GRA readiness, NXS standards, RA capability<\/td><td>sector editorial board<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard is a decision of the competent standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Every energy shock this decade has been a water event, a food event and a health event at once. Treating energy as a utility market understates how it carries risk between systems. This edition asks where an energy shock goes next.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>Energy is a coupling, not a sector<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The 2026 disruption began in oil and LNG and reached aluminium, sulphur and helium within weeks. Security of supply now spans fuels, minerals and equipment. Measuring the whole chain is the first adaptation.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Security is wider than oil<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Electricity grew more than twice as fast as energy demand. Risk moves with it: from fuel tankers to voltage control, equipment queues and data-centre clusters. The Iberian blackout is an early lesson, not a verdict on any technology.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Electrification moves the risk to the grid<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The 655 million without electricity and the 2.0 billion cooking with polluting fuels sit outside most security debates. Closing the gaps is not separate from resilience; it is part of it.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Access is the unfinished half<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 global edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 energy readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 energy readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td>Energy risk state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 6 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>national chapters in preparation<\/td><td>national chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments and published guidance that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global Stocktake decision (tripling renewables, transition away from fossil fuels)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNFCCC<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2023<\/td><td>targets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical Raw Materials Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>minerals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity market design regulation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>markets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Network code on electricity cybersecurity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>cyber<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO 50001 energy management<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>efficiency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEC 62443 control-system security<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEC<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>cyber<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA collective action on emergency oil stocks<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA members<\/td><td>32 members<\/td><td>USED MARCH 2026<\/td><td>oil security<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The IEA made its largest-ever coordinated oil stock release in March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Chinese export controls on rare earths were expanded and then suspended until November 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The ENTSO-E final report on the Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a> was published on 20 March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Expiry or renewal of the suspension of expanded Chinese rare-earth controls in November 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Implementation of the EU network code on cybersecurity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>National plans to track the global tripling of renewables<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers energy assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the world\u2019s energy system and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>agency flagships; regulator and operator reports; peer-reviewed energy-system literature; statistics<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Davis et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>hard-to-decarbonise sectors<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Creutzig et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>demand-side options<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ueckerdt et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>electro-fuels<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zscheischler et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>compound events<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPCC AR6 Working Group III<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>mitigation pathways<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Net Zero Roadmap, 2023 update<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>pathway benchmark<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>UNEP Emissions Gap Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>emissions trajectory<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Production Gap Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>fossil supply plans<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional flagships<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global Energy Review 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>demand, emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Energy Investment 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>investment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>minerals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy and AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>data centres<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Energy Outlook 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>scenarios<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewables 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>capacity outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Hydrogen Review 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>low-emissions fuels<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Methane Tracker 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>methane from energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy Technology Perspectives 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>clean-tech supply chains<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Statistics, access and markets<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SDG Extended Report, Goal 7<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN DESA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>access<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Electricity Review 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Ember<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>generation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Statistical Review 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Energy Institute<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>primary energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewable capacity statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IRENA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>capacity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Short-Term Energy Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>EIA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>prices and flows<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>demand outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IRENA<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>transition pathway<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Minerals, grids, investment and standards<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a> final report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ENTSO-E<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>grid failure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>grid needs<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Long-Term Reliability Assessment<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>NERC<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>adequacy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gas Market Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>LNG<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oil Market Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>oil flows<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical Raw Materials Act<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>minerals policy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>US data centre energy report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Berkeley Lab<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>load growth<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oil 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup> and Electricity 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>outlooks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nuclear power estimates to 2050<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IAEA<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>nuclear<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate Resilience for Energy Security<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>resilience<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Solar is the largest single source of growth in supply<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Electricity demand grows faster than energy demand<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Refining of key minerals is concentrated<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How fast data-centre demand grows after 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How long the 2026 fuel disruption lasts<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>How much generation and capacity were added in 2025: the IEA, Ember and IRENA series differ by method<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Outcome of the first global stocktake, decision 1\/CMA.5 (December 2023; tripling renewable capacity and transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>), cited from memory. UNFCCC, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1252 establishing a framework for a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1747 amending Regulations (EU) 2019\/942 and (EU) 2019\/943 on the electricity market design, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024\/1366 establishing a network code on cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 50001:2018, Energy management systems: requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEC 62443 series, Security for industrial automation and control systems. International Electrotechnical Commission, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency\u2019s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb\/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a>: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Tracking COP28 outcomes: tripling renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Davis, S.J. et al., Net-zero emissions energy systems, Science 360(6396), eaas9793, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Creutzig, F. et al., Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a>, Nature Climate Change 8, 260 to 263, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ueckerdt, F. et al., Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation, Nature Climate Change 11, 384 to 393, 2021, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shukla, P.R. et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 \u00b0C Goal in Reach, 2023 update. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: SEI, Climate Analytics, E3G, IISD and UNEP (eds.), The Production Gap Report 2023. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), World Energy Outlook 2025, launch presentation, Paris, 12 November 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Renewables 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Hydrogen Review 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Methane Tracker 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy Technology Perspectives 2024. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (about 692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 (23 July 2026; demand growth 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027 in search summaries); no figure from it is used in a finding. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: NERC (ed.), Long-Term Reliability Assessment, 2025 edition, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Atlanta, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Gas 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030 (Gas Market Report, Q4-2025). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb\/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb\/d and demand 102.5 mb\/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shehabi, A. et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, December 2024; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2030. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2027. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Climate Resilience for Energy Security. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\">Global Energy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 energy agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 energy edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>4 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">E-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a fuel supply shock that coincides with a hot season and grid stress travel through power, food and health at once?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS02-FSH-01 \u00b7 fuel shock under heat; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">E-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where do grid equipment and interconnection constraints limit the connection of new supply and load?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS02-GRD-02 \u00b7 grid constraints; first output: constraint register by region.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">E-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How much water do energy supply and data centres need by 2030, and where?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS02-WEN-03 \u00b7 water for energy and compute; first output: regional demand estimates.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">E-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which critical minerals and refining steps are single points of failure for power equipment?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS02-MIN-04 \u00b7 mineral chokepoints; first output: dependence map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">E-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where do energy access gaps coincide with weak service quality, and what is the cost of closing them?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS02-ACC-05 \u00b7 access and service quality; first output: service-tier table.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">E-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which shared grids and fuel routes lack operational contingency arrangements?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: arrangement overlay.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">E-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do heat waves change peak demand and supply together?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">E-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which energy capabilities have been tested in real shortfalls, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Energy capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 energy portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS02-FSH-01<\/span><\/td><td>Fuel shock under heat<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>E-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS02-GRD-02<\/span><\/td><td>Grid and interconnection constraints<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>E-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS02-WEN-03<\/span><\/td><td>Water for energy and compute<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>E-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS02-MIN-04<\/span><\/td><td>Mineral chokepoints<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>E-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS02-ACC-05<\/span><\/td><td>Access and service quality<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>E-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-GS02-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Fuel shock under heat Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>E-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The energy edition reads national energy chapters, regional grid and fuel evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global energy chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National energy chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">energy system of each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">DRAFTED \u00b7 further national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Grid and fuel evidence<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">shared grids, pipelines and sea routes<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 regional Baseline Editions<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Energy sector model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the global energy system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Global and strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">GLB \u00b7 SR-02 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 critical-infrastructure\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Physical and digital assets, systems and networks whose disruption would seriously affect health, safety, security, economic welfare or the functioning of government. Criticality depends on what relies on them.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Critical Infrastructure<\/a> and Lifeline Systems \u00b7 SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 strategic baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Global Energy Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE DRAFT \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the energy candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the energy candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 global annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-GS02-2027-01 \u00b7 Fuel shock under heat Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead: drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>ENE-001 \u00b7 demand<\/td><td>public record<\/td><td>reference for the 2027 series<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENE-003 \u00b7 electricity<\/td><td>INI-GS02-GRD-02<\/td><td>grid constraints<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>AIC-006 \u00b7 data centres<\/td><td>INI-GS02-WEN-03<\/td><td>water for energy and compute<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HLT-007 \u00b7 access<\/td><td>INI-GS02-ACC-05<\/td><td>access and service quality<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GOV-008 \u00b7 fuel flows<\/td><td>INI-GS02-FSH-01 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td>fuel shock under heat<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MIN-010 \u00b7 minerals<\/td><td>INI-GS02-MIN-04<\/td><td>mineral chokepoints<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>INF-011 \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">grid failure<\/a><\/td><td>regional consortia<\/td><td>grid constraint overlay<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-GS02-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CODES ARE NOT JOINS<\/p><p>Series codes in this edition (GS-02 and its relatives) are Reports codes. Codes in other indices can look alike. This edition makes no join on a code alone: a join needs a registry record that names both subjects.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Electricity data and the Global Electricity Review<\/td><td>Ember<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>ENE-003<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oil and gas market reports<\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>monthly and quarterly<\/td><td>GOV-008<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Short-Term Energy Outlook<\/td><td>US Energy Information Administration<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>GOV-008<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Transparency platform for the continental grid<\/td><td>ENTSO-E<\/td><td>hourly<\/td><td>INF-011<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical minerals outlook<\/td><td>IEA<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>MIN-010<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG 7 tracking database<\/td><td>World Bank, IEA, IRENA, UNSD, WHO<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>HLT-007<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewable capacity statistics<\/td><td>IRENA<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>ENE-002<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-GS02-001<\/td><td>Oil flows through Hormuz fell from March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>ENE \u00b7 FIN<\/td><td>research question E-01<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-GS02-002<\/td><td>Mineral export controls tripled in scope since 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>MIN \u00b7 ENE<\/td><td>initiative E-04<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-GS02-003<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h99\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 tech.ai-society.compute-resource-demand\" data-tk=\"Frontier and exponential technology \u00b7 Algorithmic decision and structural harm\" data-td=\"Rapid growth of AI data centres drawing electricity and cooling water faster than grids and catchments can supply, straining local networks, raising prices and slowing decarbonisation.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H99\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/tech\/\" data-txl=\"Frontier and exponential technology\">Data-centre load growth<\/a> in clusters<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>AIC \u00b7 ENE<\/td><td>research question E-03<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb\/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb\/d and demand 102.5 mb\/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c7-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\">Global Energy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>13 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Energy and water<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Energy uses water and water uses energy. Hydropower and thermal cooling make power supply sensitive to drought and heat; pumping, treatment and desalination make water supply sensitive to power.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2025<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">analogue<\/span><p>an early, strong monsoon cut coal power demand in India<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>hydropower share of primary energy, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">415<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">TWh<\/span><p>data-centre electricity, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Hydropower<\/td><td>output follows river flows; strong hydro and an early monsoon cut fossil generation in India in 2025<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Thermal cooling<\/td><td>curtailment risk in heat and low flows; volumes not consolidated here<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water for compute<\/td><td>cooling demand rising; volumes not consolidated<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy for water<\/td><td>pumping, treatment and desalination add load<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>WAT \u2192 ENE hydro and cooling<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 WAT pumping and desalination<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 WAT data-centre cooling<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>energy-sector water use by region<\/li><li>hydro exposure to multi-year drought<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Reservoir levels in the main hydropower basins; data-centre siting in water-stressed regions; heat-driven curtailment of thermal plants.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes physical couplings. It assesses no utility, operator or company.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Energy and food<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Food depends on energy for fertiliser, irrigation, processing and cold chains. The 2026 Hormuz disruption showed that the link runs through sulphur and acid as well as fuel.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u224825<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of global sulphur supplied from the Middle East<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">50<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of seaborne sulphur trade passes through Hormuz<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2026<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">analogue<\/span><p>China curbed sulphuric acid exports in May 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Fertiliser inputs<\/td><td>sulphur and sulphuric acid supply disrupted; Chinese acid export curbs from May 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fuel costs<\/td><td>higher oil and gas prices pass through to farms<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cold chains<\/td><td>depend on reliable power; no consolidated series here<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Bioenergy<\/td><td>competes with food for land<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 FOO fuel and fertiliser<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 FOO acid and sulphur<\/li><li>TRD \u2192 ENE \u2192 FOO price transmission<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>fertiliser price pass-through by region<\/li><li>cold-chain power reliability<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Sulphur and acid prices; fertiliser export restrictions; fuel prices in importing regions.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes physical couplings. It makes no statement on any country\u2019s agricultural or energy policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Energy and health<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Energy access shapes health: clean cooking, clinic power, cooling and refrigeration. Outages and heat make the link visible.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">655<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>without electricity, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.0<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>cooking with polluting fuels, 2024<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">449<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>served by off-grid solar tiers 1 and 2<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Electricity access<\/td><td>92% of people; 86% of the unserved are in Sub-Saharan Africa<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Clean cooking<\/td><td>75% have access; 1.8 billion projected to lack it in 2030<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cooling demand<\/td><td>lower cooling demand cut growth in 2025 in India and Southeast Asia<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Clinic power<\/td><td>not consolidated here<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 HLT access and cooking<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 ENE \u2192 HLT heat and outage<\/li><li>AIC \u2192 ENE \u2192 HLT local grid load<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>power reliability in health facilities<\/li><li>heat-wave effects on supply<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The next SDG 7 report; Mission 300 connection rates; peak summer demand in hot regions.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Health-system planning rests with national authorities and WHO. No personal health data are used or shown in Reports.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Energy and nature<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Energy transitions need minerals, land and water, and energy emissions still press on climate. Nature is the unmeasured side of the energy ledger in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&gt;38<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Gt<\/span><p>energy-related CO2, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Gt<\/span><p>CO2 avoided each year by clean technology since 2019<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">35<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">EJ<\/span><p>fossil demand avoided in 2025 by clean technology<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Emissions<\/td><td>record above 38 Gt in 2025, up about 0.4%<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mining<\/td><td>copper, lithium, cobalt and rare-earth supply growing; effects on land and water not consolidated<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hydropower<\/td><td>alters river flows; not consolidated here<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mitigation pathways<\/td><td>assessed in the IPCC literature<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 BIO mining and land<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 CLI emissions<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 BIO extraction<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ecosystem effects of mineral extraction<\/li><li>land use of energy supply<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>National climate plans tracking the 2030 tripling of renewables; mining permits for critical minerals; river-flow changes from new dams.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Biodiversity is not reduced to a single number. Where valuation is used later, it will never be presented as the whole value.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Energy security, grids and extremes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Security of supply now spans fuels, minerals and grids. Chokepoints, concentrated refining and voltage control failures are the three channels the 2025 and 2026 evidence shows.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">&lt;10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of pre-conflict Hormuz export volume at the low point, March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">72<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>average top-refiner share, key minerals, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">March 2026<\/span><p>ENTSO-E final report on the Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Fuel chokepoints<\/td><td>Hormuz flows cut from March 2026; EIA assumes constraint through the fourth quarter<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LNG<\/td><td>Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Minerals<\/td><td>refining concentration rising; export controls tripled in scope<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Grid stability<\/td><td>blackout from interacting factors<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>TRD \u2192 ENE chokepoints<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 ENE equipment<\/li><li>INF \u2192 ENE grid stability<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>fuel-market position after evidence close<\/li><li>grid equipment lead times<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Shipping through the Strait of Hormuz; the November 2026 expiry of the suspension of expanded Chinese rare-earth controls; winter peak demand and gas storage.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes physical and market couplings. It assesses no state, operator or company and makes no forecast of prices.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), World Energy Outlook 2025, launch presentation, Paris, 12 November 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shukla, P.R. et al. (eds.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency\u2019s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb\/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a>: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb\/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb\/d and demand 102.5 mb\/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-c8-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\">Global Energy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>12 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Electricity growth against energy growth, 2025<\/td><td>\u22483 \u00f7 1.3<\/td><td>\u22482.3 times<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Share of 2025 growth in energy demand from solar (lower bound)<\/td><td>reported as more than 25%<\/td><td>more than 25%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Renewables lead over coal in generation, 2025<\/td><td>10,730 \u2212 10,476 TWh<\/td><td>254 TWh<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Growth in data-centre electricity, 2024 to 2030, base case<\/td><td>945 \u00f7 415<\/td><td>\u22482.3 times<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Energy Sector Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-GS02-ENERGY \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent the global energy system and its couplings to water, food, health and biodiversity<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the coupled reading of energy and security.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>47 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 energy annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Energy Sector Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Energy demand and emissions<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>May 2026 revised<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next Global Energy Review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity generation shares<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next Electricity Review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Investment estimate<\/td><td>2026e<\/td><td>May 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next investment report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Access to electricity and cooking<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next SDG 7 report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data-centre electricity<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>next IEA update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hormuz oil flows<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Sep 2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LNG capacity and outage<\/td><td>2025 to 2026<\/td><td>Q4 2025 and Q2 2026<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>next Gas Market Report<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Critical minerals refining<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>revised Jul 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Primary energy<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jun 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a> causes<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Mar 2026<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>follow-up reports<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Demand and supply<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>regional drivers of growth<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>grid-level constraints<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fuel markets<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>position after evidence close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Minerals<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>equipment-level dependence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Access<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>service quality and affordability<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Investment<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>split by technology and region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Water for energy<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>volumes by region and technology<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resilience<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>tested capabilities beyond oil stocks<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Fuel-market position on 1 November 2026<\/td><td>IEA Oil Market Report for October and November 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>; EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook of November<\/td><td>releases after the evidence close and not retrieved; the EIA September outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup> is the baseline source; the October outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup> is post-close, context only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hormuz flow volumes before and during the conflict, from a primary document<\/td><td>IEA Oil Market Reports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the report was not opened; only search summaries were read<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Clean and fossil split of the 2026 investment estimate<\/td><td>IEA World Energy Investment 2026 full report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>report page not accessible; the launch presentation was opened without the split<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capacity added in 2025, on one basis<\/td><td>IEA, IRENA and Ember series<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the series use different methods; not reconciled in this edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Transformer, cable and interconnection-queue constraints<\/td><td>IEA grids work<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup>; national operators<\/td><td>not retrieved; figures in memory are not used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy-sector water use by region<\/td><td>IEA and national statistics offices<\/td><td>no consolidated global series found at evidence close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Heat-wave effects on power <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in 2026<\/td><td>operator reports; weather services<\/td><td>not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cyber and physical incidents on energy infrastructure<\/td><td>operators and national authorities<\/td><td>incident data are not published on a common basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Winter gas storage at the start of the heating season<\/td><td>Gas Infrastructure Europe; operators<\/td><td>not retrieved<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy support for poor households, by country<\/td><td>national ministries; World Bank<\/td><td>not consolidated; capability rung stays LISTED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy employment and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h115\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.labour-transition.skills-mismatch\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Labour and technology transition\" data-td=\"A persistent gap between the skills workers hold and those employers need, leaving vacancies unfilled alongside unemployment and slowing adaptation to new technology.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H115\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">skills gap<\/a><\/td><td>IEA World Energy Employment 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>report not opened; no figure used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data-centre electricity by country after 2024<\/td><td>IEA, national regulators, operators<\/td><td>later series use a different baseline; not mixed with the 415 TWh figure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs beyond emergency stocks<\/td><td>operators, regulators, ministries<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by the International Energy Agency (revised May 2026) from energy balances, market data and technology tracking. Annual. Role: binds ENE-001, ENE-002 and CLI-004.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-GS02-001<\/h3><p>IEA Global Energy Review 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Compiled by UN DESA from custodian storylines as of 30 April 2026. Annual. Role: binds HLT-007 and the access tiles. Figures differ slightly from the main report text.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-GS02-002<\/h3><p>SDG 7 Extended Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-GS02-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-GS02-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>all fuels and technologies; modelled where national data are missing<\/td><td>country coverage uneven; cooking estimate is a range<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 5 months after the year<\/td><td>about 16 months after the year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>revised version issued May 2026<\/td><td>storylines updated up to the report date<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>methodology published<\/td><td>indicator metadata published<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>compared with national statistics<\/td><td>custodian review<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Ember<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup>: generation shares by country and sector<\/li><li>ENTSO-E<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>: data tables behind the final report<\/li><li>IEA critical minerals<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>: country shares by mineral<\/li><li>IEA Gas Market Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>: LNG outage duration<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>energy, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>bcm<\/td><td>billion cubic metres<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EJ<\/td><td>exajoule<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENTSO-E<\/td><td>European Network of Transmission System Operators for Electricity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GW<\/td><td>gigawatt<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA<\/td><td>International Energy Agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IRENA<\/td><td>International Renewable Energy Agency<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>LNG<\/td><td>liquefied natural gas<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mtpa<\/td><td>million tonnes per annum<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG 7<\/td><td>Sustainable Development Goal 7: affordable and clean energy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>STEO<\/td><td>Short-Term Energy Outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TWh<\/td><td>terawatt-hour<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TFEC<\/td><td>total final energy consumption<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-GS02-LNG-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Grid and route notes<\/td><td>cards for the major shared grids and fuel routes<\/td><td>WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: access to electricity<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>share and number of people living in households with access to electricity<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>share and number of people<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>custodian indicator based on national surveys and models<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>SDG 7 Extended Report 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>modelled where survey data are missing<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>binary measure; does not capture reliability, capacity or affordability<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb\/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb\/d and demand 102.5 mb\/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; post-close, context only, supports no baseline claim). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency\u2019s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb\/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, full report (clean energy about USD 2.2 trillion and fossil fuels about USD 1.2 trillion in search summaries). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (about 692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Employment 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a>: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\">Global Energy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>8 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>12 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Growth in global energy demand<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.3<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Growth in electricity demand<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u22483<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Growth in electricity demand (Ember)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.8<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Solar generation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2,778<\/span><\/td><td>TWh<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewables share of generation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">33.8<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coal share of generation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">33.0<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fossil generation change<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u221238<\/span><\/td><td>TWh<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Renewable capacity added (IEA)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">800<\/span><\/td><td>GW<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Battery storage added<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">\u2248110<\/span><\/td><td>GW<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Energy-related CO2<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">&gt;38<\/span><\/td><td>Gt<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global energy investment<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">3.4<\/span><\/td><td>USD trillion<\/td><td>2026e<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Electricity supply and infrastructure investment<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">1.6<\/span><\/td><td>USD trillion<\/td><td>2026e<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data-centre electricity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">415<\/span><\/td><td>TWh<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data-centre electricity, base case<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">945<\/span><\/td><td>TWh<\/td><td>2030<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People without electricity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">655<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People cooking with polluting fuels<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.0<\/span><\/td><td>billion<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Top refiner share, key minerals excluding rare earths<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">72<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Brent, fourth-quarter 2026 (forecast)<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">91<\/span><\/td><td>USD a barrel<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0AGrowth%20in%20global%20energy%20demand%2C1.3%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AGrowth%20in%20electricity%20demand%2C%E2%89%883%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AGrowth%20in%20electricity%20demand%20(Ember)%2C2.8%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0ASolar%20generation%2C%222%2C778%22%2CTWh%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0ARenewables%20share%20of%20generation%2C33.8%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0ACoal%20share%20of%20generation%2C33.0%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0AFossil%20generation%20change%2C%E2%88%9238%2CTWh%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B7%5D%0ARenewable%20capacity%20added%20(IEA)%2C800%2CGW%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0ABattery%20storage%20added%2C%E2%89%88110%2CGW%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AEnergy-related%20CO2%2C%3E38%2CGt%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B2%5D%0AGlobal%20energy%20investment%2C3.4%2CUSD%20trillion%2C2026e%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AElectricity%20supply%20and%20infrastructure%20investment%2C1.6%2CUSD%20trillion%2C2026e%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AData-centre%20electricity%2C415%2CTWh%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0A%22Data-centre%20electricity%2C%20base%20case%22%2C945%2CTWh%2C2030%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B4%5D%0APeople%20without%20electricity%2C655%2Cmillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B8%5D%0APeople%20cooking%20with%20polluting%20fuels%2C2.0%2Cbillion%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B8%5D%0A%22Top%20refiner%20share%2C%20key%20minerals%20excluding%20rare%20earths%22%2C72%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B3%5D%0A%22Brent%2C%20fourth-quarter%202026%20(forecast)%22%2C91%2CUSD%20a%20barrel%2C2026%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B47%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Global%20Energy%20Risk%20and%20Resilience%20Report%202026%3A%20Baseline%20Edition%2C%20The%20State%20of%20the%20World%E2%80%99s%20Energy%20System.%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Growth%20in%20global%20energy%20demand%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Growth%20in%20electricity%20demand%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%883%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Growth%20in%20electricity%20demand%20(Ember)%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222.8%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Solar%20generation%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222%2C778%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22TWh%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Renewables%20share%20of%20generation%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2233.8%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Coal%20share%20of%20generation%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2233.0%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Fossil%20generation%20change%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%88%9238%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22TWh%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B7%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Renewable%20capacity%20added%20(IEA)%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22800%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22GW%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Battery%20storage%20added%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%E2%89%88110%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22GW%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Energy-related%20CO2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%3E38%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Gt%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B2%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Global%20energy%20investment%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%223.4%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20trillion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Electricity%20supply%20and%20infrastructure%20investment%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%221.6%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20trillion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026e%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Data-centre%20electricity%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22415%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22TWh%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Data-centre%20electricity%2C%20base%20case%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22945%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22TWh%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222030%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20without%20electricity%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22655%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20cooking%20with%20polluting%20fuels%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222.0%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B8%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Top%20refiner%20share%2C%20key%20minerals%20excluding%20rare%20earths%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2272%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B3%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Brent%2C%20fourth-quarter%202026%20(forecast)%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2291%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20a%20barrel%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B47%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Shares are rounded as published. IEA, Ember and Energy Institute series use different bases, and the 2025 growth figures are shown from each issuer where they differ<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>. Forecast values are labelled SCENARIO. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">MIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">AIC<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>IEA Global Energy Review 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>demand, emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA World Energy Investment 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026e<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>investment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>minerals<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA Energy and AI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>data centres<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IEA Gas Market Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>quarterly<\/td><td>gas, LNG<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ember Global Electricity Review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>think tank, open data<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>generation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SDG 7 Extended Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agencies<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>access<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ENTSO-E <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a> report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>operators\u2019 association<\/td><td>Continental Europe<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>grid failure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics agency<\/td><td>US and global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>prices, flows<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EIA Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics agency<\/td><td>US and global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>post-close, context only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IRENA capacity statistics<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>capacity<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading: energy across ten clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading: energy across ten clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td>data-centre load; winter cold; gas-to-coal switching<\/td><td>power, gas, industry<\/td><td>US energy demand and coal use<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>hydropower dependence in dry years<\/td><td>power, cities<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>gas import dependence; grid stability<\/td><td>power, heating, industry<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a> report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup>; solar and wind 30% of EU generation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>export flows and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h60\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 sys.supply-chain.trade-restriction\" data-tk=\"Systemic and compound events \u00b7 Supply-chain and flow disruption\" data-td=\"Export bans, sanctions or embargoes that cut access to goods, energy or inputs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H60\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/sys\/\" data-txl=\"Systemic and compound events\">sanctions<\/a><\/td><td>gas, oil<\/td><td>IEA gas report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td>Hormuz and LNG exposure<\/td><td>oil, gas, aluminium, sulphur<\/td><td>minerals outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>; EIA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>access gaps; clean cooking<\/td><td>households, health<\/td><td>SDG 7<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>import dependence; monsoon and heat<\/td><td>power, fertiliser<\/td><td>IEA Global Energy Review<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>LNG and oil import dependence; clean-tech supply<\/td><td>power, industry<\/td><td>critical minerals<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>rising demand; LNG imports<\/td><td>power, cities<\/td><td>IEA gas report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>small island fuel imports; export minerals<\/td><td>power, ports<\/td><td>regional statistics (not bound)<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Grid card: Continental Europe synchronous area<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">grid<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">synchronous<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">interconnected<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">cross-border<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>power, heating, industry, cities<\/dd><dt>Defining events<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a> in Spain and Portugal on 28 April 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>ENE \u2192 HLT outages; ENE \u2192 INF voltage; ENE \u2192 FIN prices<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>restoration and a published expert final report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>cross-border flow detail; reactive power coverage<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>E-01 \u00b7 E-02<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The final report names gaps in voltage and reactive power control and differences in practice across areas as interacting factors [9].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">GRID<\/h3><p>Voltage control<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">A synchronous grid shares its stability across borders, so a local failure can propagate.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">SECURITY<\/h3><p>Interdependence<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The report is an expert analysis of causes and recommendations, not an attribution of liability [9].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">LEARNING<\/h3><p>Public final report<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Grid cards are generated for the major shared grids and fuel routes with the regional Baseline Editions. The Continental Europe card is shown first because its failure analysis is published.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the energy edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the energy edition through the energy chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the energy edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>18 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Gas 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030 (Gas Market Report, Q4-2025). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a>: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; post-close, context only, supports no baseline claim). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (about 692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-02-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\">Global Energy 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>13 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>47 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, launch presentation, Paris, 28 May 2026. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026 (estimates, with 2025 data). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026 (revised version, May 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Energy and AI (World Energy Outlook Special Report). International Energy Agency, Paris, April 2025. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), Gas 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030 (Gas Market Report, Q4-2025). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>IEA (ed.), World Energy Outlook 2025, launch presentation, Paris, 12 November 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026: 2025 in review (generation, demand, solar, coal). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 7 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>ENTSO-E (ed.), 28 April 2025 Iberian <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h48\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 infra.utilities.power-blackout\" data-tk=\"Built systems \u00b7 Utility and communication network outage\" data-td=\"Loss of electricity supply across a large area, stopping water, heating, cooling, communications and health care.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H48\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/infra\/\" data-txl=\"Built systems\">blackout<\/a>: final report of the expert panel (publication page; report dated 20 March 2026). ENTSO-E, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, October 2026 (released 6 October 2026, after the 30 September evidence close; post-close, context only, supports no baseline claim). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil Market Report, September 2026; flows through the strait of 7.6 mb\/d in August, 2026 supply 100.7 mb\/d and demand 102.5 mb\/d, and taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), collective action on emergency oil stocks agreed on 11 March 2026 (400 million barrels, the largest release in the agency\u2019s history), with export volumes through the strait below 10% of pre-conflict levels and pre-war flows of about 20 mb\/d, taken from search-result summaries; the release itself is also noted in the opened minerals outlook [3]. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Gas Market Report, Q2-2026; Ras Laffan offline since early March 2026 and nearly a fifth of global LNG supply removed, taken from search-result summaries. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026 (about 692 GW added in 2025; 5,149 GW total), taken from search-result summaries; the page returned an access error. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Energy Institute (ed.), Statistical Review of World Energy 2026 (75th edition; fossil fuels about 86% of primary energy, hydropower 2.7%, electricity demand up 3%); values taken from a trade-press summary that was opened, not from the Review. Energy Institute, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Mid-Year Update 2026 (23 July 2026; demand growth 3.6% in 2026 and 3.8% in 2027 in search summaries); no figure from it is used in a finding. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Investment 2026, full report (clean energy about USD 2.2 trillion and fossil fuels about USD 1.2 trillion in search summaries). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shehabi, A. et al., 2024 United States Data Center Energy Usage Report, Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory, Berkeley, December 2024; the page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Shukla, P.R. et al. (eds.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> 2022: Mitigation of Climate Change, Contribution of Working Group III to the Sixth Assessment Report. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC (ed.), Outcome of the first global stocktake, decision 1\/CMA.5 (December 2023; tripling renewable capacity and transitioning away from fossil fuels in energy <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>), cited from memory. UNFCCC, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Net Zero Roadmap: A Global Pathway to Keep the 1.5 \u00b0C Goal in Reach, 2023 update. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity Grids and Secure Energy Transitions. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), World Energy Employment 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy Efficiency 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Oil 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2030. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Electricity 2025: Analysis and forecast to 2027. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), World Energy Transitions Outlook 2024. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IRENA (ed.), Tracking COP28 outcomes: tripling renewable power capacity and doubling energy efficiency by 2030. International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAEA (ed.), Energy, Electricity and Nuclear Power Estimates for the Period up to 2050, 2025 edition. International Atomic Energy Agency, Vienna. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: NERC (ed.), Long-Term Reliability Assessment, 2025 edition, North American Electric Reliability Corporation, Atlanta, cited from memory. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: SEI, Climate Analytics, E3G, IISD and UNEP (eds.), The Production Gap Report 2023. Stockholm Environment Institute, Stockholm. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1252 establishing a framework for a secure and sustainable supply of critical raw materials (Critical Raw Materials Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024\/1747 amending Regulations (EU) 2019\/942 and (EU) 2019\/943 on the electricity market design, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2024\/1366 establishing a network code on cybersecurity aspects of cross-border electricity flows, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 50001:2018, Energy management systems: requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEC 62443 series, Security for industrial automation and control systems. International Electrotechnical Commission, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Climate Resilience for Energy Security. International Energy Agency, Paris, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Renewables 2025: Analysis and forecasts to 2030. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Hydrogen Review 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Global Methane Tracker 2025. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IEA (ed.), Energy Technology Perspectives 2024. International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Davis, S.J. et al., Net-zero emissions energy systems, Science 360(6396), eaas9793, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Creutzig, F. et al., Towards demand-side solutions for mitigating climate change, Nature Climate Change 8, 260 to 263, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ueckerdt, F. et al., Potential and risks of hydrogen-based e-fuels in climate change mitigation, Nature Climate Change 11, 384 to 393, 2021, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-ref-47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Short-Term Energy Outlook, September 2026 (Brent about USD 91 a barrel in the fourth quarter of 2026; Middle East oil flows assumed constrained through the fourth quarter of 2026). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Global Energy Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Global Sector Series GS-02<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 energy edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-gs-02-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-gs-02-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-SEC-GS-02-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Global Energy; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Energy\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Energy&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Energy\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Energy\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Energy\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Global Energy, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Global Energy for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\u2019s Energy System..&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Global Energy&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Global Sector Report \u00b7 GS-02&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Global Energy&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Global Sector Report \u00b7 GS-02&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-gs-02-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-02-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>GS-02 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Global Energy 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-02 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Global Energy.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Global Sector Risk and Resilience<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-02\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><p class=\"nx-note\" data-nr-rights=\"true\"><a class=\"nx-link\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.<\/p><section id=\"nx-sec-signature\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"climate\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-sec-signature-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Sector signature<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-sec-signature-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">The sectors behind Global Energy.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-canvas-wrap\"><figure class=\"nx-nsig\" data-nx-sig=\"WEIF\" data-sig-name=\"Energy and its partners\" data-sig-line=\"Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).\" data-sig-inst=\"Reports\"><div class=\"nx-nsig-plate\"><div class=\"nx-nsig-strip\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Signatures in context\" hidden><\/div><div class=\"nx-nsig-stage\"><div class=\"nx-nsig-top\"><span>Select corners \u00b7 hover lines<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-pairs\">6 \/ 15 relations<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-nsig-tilt\"><svg class=\"nx-nsig-svg\" viewBox=\"-370 -290 740 580\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Sector signature hexagon: Water, Energy, Infrastructure and Food selected, 6 of 15 relations in play, coupling 0.46. Teaching values.\" focusable=\"false\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-nsig-read\"><div><p class=\"nx-nsig-k\">Signature<\/p><p class=\"nx-nsig-name\">Energy and its partners<\/p><p class=\"nx-nsig-line\">Energy gives power for transport and telecoms to infrastructure (0.8), pumping and treatment to water (0.5) and fertiliser, machinery and cold chains to food (0.5).<\/p><\/div><p class=\"nx-nsig-code\" aria-live=\"polite\"><span>W<\/span> \u00b7 <span>E<\/span> \u00b7 <span>I<\/span> \u00b7 <span>F<\/span> \u00b7 <span class=\"nx-nsig-off\">H<\/span> \u00b7 <span class=\"nx-nsig-off\">B<\/span><\/p><dl class=\"nx-nsig-stats\"><div><dt>Sectors<\/dt><dd><strong>4<\/strong> <small>of 6<\/small><\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Relations<\/dt><dd><strong>6<\/strong> <small>of 15<\/small><\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Coupling<\/dt><dd><strong>0.46<\/strong> <small>share of total<\/small><\/dd><\/div><\/dl><div class=\"nx-nsig-detail\"><h3 class=\"nx-nsig-dh\">Strongest relations in play<\/h3><ul class=\"nx-nsig-rel\"><li><span class=\"nx-nsig-rt\"><b>Energy \u2192 Infrastructure<\/b> \u00b7 power for transport and telecoms<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-bar\" data-v=\"8\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-v\">0.8<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-nsig-rt\"><b>Water \u2192 Energy<\/b> \u00b7 cooling water and hydropower<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-bar\" data-v=\"6\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-v\">0.6<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-nsig-rt\"><b>Water \u2192 Food<\/b> \u00b7 irrigation<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-bar\" data-v=\"8\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-v\">0.8<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-nsig-rt\"><b>Infrastructure \u2192 Water<\/b> \u00b7 pipes, dams and treatment works<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-bar\" data-v=\"6\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-v\">0.6<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nsig-actions\" hidden><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-nsig-btn\" data-sig-act=\"all\">Select all<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-nsig-btn\" data-sig-act=\"clear\">Clear<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-nsig-btn nx-nsig-pri\" data-sig-act=\"copy\">Copy signature<\/button><\/div><\/div><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-nsig-note\">Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-gs-02-full-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-gs-02-full-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-gs-02-full-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/model\/scenarios\/urban-flood\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Urban flood<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/risk-information-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Risk information standards and interoperability<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/data\/identification-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Identification (the UNI)<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script><style>@media print { @page { margin: 20mm 17mm 20mm 17mm; @top-left { content: \"Nexus Reports\"; font: 500 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @top-right { content: \"Global Energy Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\\002019 s Energy System. \\0000b7  Baseline Edition 2026\"; font: 400 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Sans\", sans-serif; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-left { content: \"NR-SECTOR-ENERGY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE \\0000b7  Draft, not released\"; font: 400 7pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-center { content: \"CC BY 4.0. 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