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uyhwRRTrewIyI8yPS5Yf4Sig9br49h0MBK+uyG3fvGm08f+5lSAcbLZauKKj7QY+xVn1Zruhate1A4KtLN8qfjkLPflB1Wy2eYkr2A5lvrs7Mq84mCWsN0ASnrVmEs5leeJkS57IFTR8rxRkitsChoIlqeaTRFWNxFRhHr5Nt7BBfhQJITew16BQYYOB8FF5vKWFTe7rriZ3nwjLxImQ+U5sd+IkJ8xsAeVF\/0AllaCA1RbuqpCgTnJhCRchVNIu3pBW9yYHwI1CvVdVKPLmOSjyqndFCLkVM7rKBYvbDBWOeFNSiCpo8jaFMUb\/5R1UI5He4tXSvK0UObk86Y\/MZaXkiDmKskd+wHST40kG6pNnoroN7rcG6\/VsMzJnCixC+6JR9gVpdRd7hGRrtVBr9VC1VovnrNUDXsWC6j+IbfJQomXMGSoXvdVDaWtn3yzUyqSnb7rw9NXEK3jhj8yD4zhTm3LDEbOj0Sil7ANXP2fnd5tZQMIceSKcTm+Jqig+WzekZV2RKv1jUVfqMN9FGTB\/I63ub3uEqEF1f1NGwrj\/20BSeLw6IfDImaETvCr33TwpPHZvSPGFxJZqStl4UEIDhxP87Bj+Tlrd3\/Xx\/K4W9x2J+79zl9V3wAhJ5dBOlgOvYJn9cEY377b6doZpFMwYRV31be6n\/tAPfPZIkJh4\/g0kdYJa+YtErIn2xgn9qSPaDsG0032nGCTBI96QTCl9Y70rAAjnZTm\/uD3a6lGWx7c1vMrRodr1QHzrPoZipAkoMExzW2G6Xv\/SauF\/2r+APuPmuCW17X5o3jZurGyWj6FV3CcYd\/gZ8HuOQoH1PDGM5L0E3ZO6BE1o8Ufm+97eN9XBN11B8dVqH7aKurGPskp28N6LJfhqcmvfk74XAXuG88VJrnu8Ja3u7R4hJ2qD38oDd9K\/3Xa\/CDij60ZhKNRHH3PNZ9njon2QuVzkP0HTGrDMsYLhTN8qJ5bQbzOashO1O84TZ5rrcyu\/mh+lJukjqBkzQP7EhbXsUWnzkh2i7iTQpVyHtLrOUaLg4gBckr4zqFHiTAKkdx+aCV6B9UFqaUqmQiHKJrZLg4CLQV2hKmF2Ei3SbAwz0urOjkZqDDO5NqP+bMCrpn1\/gFeFxyo+ZwKGmsAPKR9iQRJwRMWCPCDfAVP+RGNJbQFoAVUzm3Hkw6aK5jTRTorcvwCqEsOQbDEMzNPYBNA1mg4WTN52b1xA8sP\/Cz3JeQXUAZGRCr3\/H7XOEJ4\/R7j7R42alPlxzpiWC3FzL5jeogDKQQEdXRcdGf4Qe\/B3SlZAbkPPSTzU2T+KHTYxPIKu26+N9sGk+Rq9OC68fLP17hej\/fPn186BcWC04L\/mQfPg4lWhzBvjoD1pH+RljIPmwbzZdtpGW1ZqN9sX7cILoz1vyxpto918ZbSyXtpGC57nB3l5KDN5iV4c71tIMDr6bF4aL+ftN5P2m+LQ38DQfym+e8mnUxp+++d5Uzb+MCy0fGC8nBw6r4xXchCvjFfz9ivnpfFSzuNl8+XFwfdCewdQqZnXgskUarWNl82Xk5+\/ix7daJaktNhr2351YLRb9i8HGgyadqv9S7Ntv3n55qp9YL95aby222+0lWnbh4dG6+rAPjR+sVtvNOi1DKh2ELyxX\/9svLR\/aWnVDFFtaw7t1vyw8O7QaB\/Yrz+3D51DNX2jfWC05s2X9ms1l\/gRZpJQlxncxkDQG2RMJPf4ChlL\/uKRoANkJEuC2shIHuFPYZUOjVeTfD+1jQPjAACYvWgeGAcXh\/pz8+DzoV6heTA50Nuc\/mK0X0E7xqvmKzlYnxXAPm0fGofGK6Nd3N3tA+Nw3i7v+DfzdqH9a77GALB9LRDrVzPjpg1p9mKEM889hDpMc737H\/C7+x9nGneR7pB3xP3x\/idghdfH\/OW4+BLxl99mEbzOiRIDm9kqs7oxobwSY9Kd0Pr\/\/jtFR8eDRm5pW69f\/Dv\/oJngeqyDUN7FWNORqm5s5vKerJDQXMFvZPaO8LjVkyoc4R9BLafwMmy0cUfKG77WbComIEhnht9nZTDPwCZ+FS1ocuqk1NRh+m+n+b3V\/GXQEK6O3L\/V6QGqJ4SMTGYvosRLMwnZkdzqHpRJqsskxJfi8op\/6GTj5Y8CEu7Ejzv+ep1YvkdD1nF6pt9L9gjxld9O0kDG38u3Pxuo4XScztbnDkIWbLi8efbA27bTOPCZqWrjLTk4g8\/e3myDLY+OwO0DvLbypjwxTC9xRqzDbJaAsMafkKWISMe3QBrvwK7iznvY4osrXrAl7q1mSZA9WYEzpIHWxzLgnWw4fbUehrLkuFBvvF1vXKgnUKYs7RTqOtt1Hb2uxq5NaX4694\/S+djgJlgwVjWZ2\/RdxC0Ib6MlQZyovTIOXiGF1tqHOV6D3yNwbhNSl5GyJHqgBEkN5GkURIl621T17Z9fZ++AtXKdmCAu7xReQ3hc9p7rDSTZF4yCwXkdZxhQInXtx\/uN32mfDURE4nx8rJ3UmIHTixVaST5xpzjtIQuRIRRsfsjjHVljHxncURPtN341KYZnPhIOafE2bKCOgRoJ\/yhYQh8MMfCNvzzeb3CAN9BRGjvhMYJKWAwSno\/+fuHoQx3S7aEOZ4xFYcV4QR9MkPhcNXql2M9elIdPxfDDquHzl\/sNM+khQ8rkHRX3uTUlWpySGJI+r7+k3xElFEJopefRrya1fTiAfFIZltw\/8vx5Yb4wEDBC8sOZsAD19g144r\/3+bhMatNl7IQe9eAjTEY9y02zr8bfTRoVfTRZFKPjfR6ZYQPWwiteDiZVLAgfYWV\/VQXzyXOcyWyOP2rrDx1vTCXAU4Vsjt\/BH4HK\/NCgy5gmzIAAL7pQre9vkgaBvjx\/fozESAEz5kYy6DAKit1BieLan3MXeJhsUQQstCblQOgw8Pkqi899ZyAmDG\/VgKJA\/N4\/iktARTJ+OGzswwM3HCLwI\/HDsRoVnYsdaYI6ZU6D9fqlPDy\/ZkSHdxmrWXNaIudb6tH3VEVRSFWUK5PRgOranj7erCWtVtacINFIDohThZXfIDGPJ5PChyU+WOhWe6O+9hBo5Q3UyF81kBGFxnu6nKWGqpKijijos6qPIn5YMBvZAKRWVL62Z0lgoUvxTpW1+V7oFZ5E9\/Kc302o8WsQDZ3A+OinD6khGpD9PQyzzh6G0NPDUHTzaxClqZNwY8OEGjRkySNsaHhADV5TdLZeo4cwWgTUG1Nj6KTc7CcOHyd0WftSVLDUB9HPqXyblc8mpD82kKXmA5MwTlzHo9NHNYts1YbUFGw8NMz\/wBMfNLjyGywSdnRGkymy9vZyZIMbvK7PI4hOxR9e1zFcnznCZbtQYSNs99VIyHFZqk7JOIlmcfHk\/hoZo1nCJjSBrek3MmRQefgC0PDKxkD\/PEtVa\/6cEhRHAYz3mG9o2dC+soYkGjMdCuSt7CTiRMJa5lvZMIv7GEuo2+UNa\/MND4BvIMN0XJemKYVTQBsI2xrJWEhSKJTiEJejeR\/+UaObcuGMgZZA94tgudZAaDWl81Gtr5jAiLSZcO1uo\/1K8uNhMwE\/sUb7kHPPjT+kkvUP7leWCP+y5hvgnlXlZqFMs\/1q84euOM5Utm8sB3P9a1d9Z1FMfKGSzXV74AtWUIFo38JCFECV8VAa+UUEowCCWVmQY2EZ6pix2WukILPlHikq8ZgXvcqLv9PGi1zPCJ6n\/pGj6IuvDAwj4nB1nuimKbxbRv0W+F2EosiMvJ9Nh8Db99sDMYz5tn9MwatfmUvBoT+U3vzcu47Me3N9f9gs8acm7oRq6y8FW2Qm\/dlgvUYcGAZqzLCyDupiYFjwSc2dUUtWY+bHA8voZ4Cqdkg1OLMO3jJV5hWuAcuyjtCgQy2YRqdyNXjhjXSXp3WeN31tuWW4gxYGwkez3V3IAyBE249PaP0e9XB+yY9EMeo+Viv6PN8JojGvV+FqM408JxCBmty95nGHMvBRrPYHYbQbC29+K4IgjY9M4AErCXVboRPmkpEUaJm+T6QMWGmmtZjbqTxJwNZa7KHm4wN89Go+gqctS2s+pvAxqfmYwMdlzccl\/xjUfQ3g87jm65h\/rKs75nWdmq8O\/1hX1ykaFR415UotnrbC+tgAS3MuLUcluLwcR8hZsCI3svFXEsc96njb8rNnaWkVeKvK6Ov5ibBGKVlFOh6OeqF0N3Y6Icf+3RnJ7HcaIZhhK2k6zTcKzYXSK7nRbllLEvKoB7\/ZbkkDvTlv+I03x9vGwt7y+I1Soiw7860jJeQP36PIigkhyx4CCaiDRG\/iDJYolTBMzprinSRYjxrB0krFTRE6VCJhN1wzV\/BnjhhHPB\/ACbC3pw51pmXKXPU\/9D7sEcLUhw\/bPADHEorRQrhbV8SjkG9kSL0hsIKcsfhAWHfMyJiaHA8I4Gc4CzWMRiMJu4+al+lf1Bwza+V7HWp5ftJ51mbo8X9BkViD4zijF\/CRWbSBmkxg5XFRdGFVVfVZ8boet0tVlMxAlBleHoscEj9\/+aJ5tYv2mHkqyHUq4mRYtf\/eSnFRC5oTvoB4sxHoXUt\/tOUsD+OMmG6L1gNQmSkDKawDsE9n7ZyzPLrpsSYoQqhhOmHEzL6Y8wDrOmg9WqUqsEI4Aw0sQ6hLREOez9Va3gBbhh\/GM2YZwl3HMoAUOQl1LKOvHF8GopJ6JPvN9j4MQupXpIvsbsfcx9xBijvear4b4IeWh971E+59B3+luy4puEwVVyIIs6gSMNNDMFHmaAVI+3wWBF+ok5i4gZqoYaIWlw7HlF1HIZuYuNHGKuCmeaAV4mWgOVP\/nnd8kskNlVbwbO24cKQ4Wt0BHiJTIGZVFyH8DVeYh87cHzssgrgVPx5GIPrs7VW8tReJzyg4yCtstbOQSctO83jlmCHeWIUXXDY1PF84cC+i5ME2xLykb3f8CIwreJoKRwHHRNXfc3DNWM71mKy3t5exrop26P5rHHY0mUqm1lVsbKWnnDQTlzxbGV59ZITZ8usdKDHBDQ2iK9F6vfUB0grpmGa91nasCvrC6\/WM5U8ZNsoPOE9M9PzwMr016N2kvY8ZRIAMURhHkVJtB4N1b2Bpu5pnaPicwDWxQ6W04JQ8TcOCpylEWZXqobIrxvvIA0g+9sasM6amltxQL1HJloG6A0S61Ub664U1cqXwJeQqFLw6oWZiOVL1dQX6EzeKferZKHeDeaIhnycb4A2x0HQsQCeYK1i4SkVrsGZl5S4CmlJcX39kfiyGmG6vNsWrwsoV0aS2zbZITV5hLyeNQJXk6oO4qPcEy6krNhbUDDnmsRSf+mf26wvePVfpj1F0ydqrPjgZcyx0Air4vlAmKn3EciYw3pqRbDuy154olvl5p64Tw2oXgVZxmjxWvQwbHYLisLJtn3Z1erc4TLEyQPLFDlfa9IoRQIRBxn3s3hz5EO6cIdL7SnhflkOSfmtg+STpJ7mDuwBNOvFH7Df6mCEHQoizA88oPitjjNQx26tuy9\/RlhBtotD8wCEuvYFBJYNXo7yH586+EGrAtsMHdMjMBGTmW1EP0pYu4h5mVmEjzY+b7cqJzPrmvGFWDaTX7swykGP8f9RDvrZ1aGXbyap2g\/+XkUhOyp5NR3LVU4mA6OdFUZE6ZSjHSHUKJkuqSKXu88WBlUhpFe8CYDRj1THd3C+ZeiJ6hQOxp\/OneL0GSvZhWzbU0RwtIapaJ1YRNV\/GmKqhngj13dv7gFeP1PxQkVqBn5UzWhs3PVbGkFwJegEx8Bfs6CxjxC94FLxZBY4KzlU12fwmw21399wcOVPJSIycKQTrJU\/XCfyUGcdG4CPAUruHEUp2w69ttsTJZJAYgfLtyFdgGHF5pD8aFCTRTWXUZmkMLguEcAgpH7arz8FKV0g1IaIZaI\/acyeYUakBLvrOgNvJAwxRDhfCCL7lXrLflPb6K0n63wbWe7K3WK\/Nr1VH5ZtSiyuXoAU+brZ7e\/P1urL8yJlyNmguU0F8zQL+3neFy\/RDo7GR4edOQVB5aJgPhJB2DwlbVUf8BTvhRuAkWnEQuKSJrCXOfGZj0urGeVRODLMN+\/FzwuAUeMFgVju77pzMCSEL8AhbZDAGeD\/kvT6IXh8q4y7jhFuOkGXOe7zM04DE5QBNnrQCWEjzjPYv2EATI2+fCIGFDRjQMQ0949gA67xUpQ8so+YTG2SCeeV2Hvk08KQOXiGH9Xqb3y\/kF3JMRTmfZ\/EBdWKdV7i0S2SrsSSt7vJorlZjqXZ8rKVw2BOOfXgFisj+cvAjhqHsOMy4dM+9zJo8C0mMV7yxCoWl50\/zFFhcyOUlq82BUFhzBOcBTLkGZJGFJi8GVfaWAKwt\/OOu7adA0JO+V3Q78Em1BlFpolCCcb4J8wEKCxktWMjotqu7NJZIzx\/c5UWyMONWt6JKccy8QJWFCW0dEdHY06d+BlF1s1L46aa2+ragMONrMcujPxlN0HqdvTAgHrcq7HOrUz2SfZS1Wz1dsaPhVFR9p0ni+GEzGo3EuZzj2iwehbIq4UdaKVJn5fJUboUTRwsnjm\/Q5aB2\/HT7oBQXe76F9TaF\/Eqzmt3aTfLdSgiJezzXmLTDxrjrmNVRDyoC3BFFsqVIi9l7cqLVVUZKnkDPfNH\/2xv0\/\/Yse\/DPF7ha5wGB3kLJIceT5K6ulvBwFTWzVF8OLrThEzNRFmcb4X57IPCTig7h\/EmS+\/BaCAJiZfT+jGhOvNL1RmLXzJFXvG4ofkHZnovYO4b4R8FcPNgsOveX1INUFULY+ka+5bP6+63ZI+bf3urlBjfM3t7fHsYwUSvP7fFNc56AhiFslCj8vCQPMjwyszm1LfOhucQvIKasK1iZdpN\/jaOF2W5+s15C\/IfOXswasen88ytuzHm6zKM2ALUqVGkhz0CxOlcW1xTnNwJUpyAS5ClOInAW8cOxpLEPsZ+KXyxxXCp+cioqfk4pS3xXVHYhl\/ogew9pXES+xd6OQDNdNL2nzwg3Y3m4WVV2JC6P9+l2tFmmcc\/zJ0lhrluJRPw8DaRQWVQgBz5jQBAppMDd3FMtoXDIZRk2SWg6iQKvYx+81nIEfwAR5QM7mmaj\/8BFlHuaxbNNWf8D20oV\/B4qvtcrvucVp6z\/ng2emIimk\/bC3bxXMYxaoo8nUpAIbPGcyHWeqWR3+i+sgqRE6PIKOJwO1LPk1ug4m10ZTHyBBwSWoaBTyvWwOXaYAacPZT6S93oB0GDKjG\/C8+ijbtLGK\/XxquBh1LL09433tVn1uNvSx92fD17p6zWHgYJgApqlXConXFrZew9qI21ErYzcfSSt7sec3f+Y5T74CJtF2U3fgwzwcWADkKsInaT++YnQ69dl4S\/XmZlZH4p6Z31WWyZVE6X+6m8wUOX164Jk3kNfQxzv4QzlQHmfAeW9DhSoMYd6eVSqgGi23pA\/02rhxsErK5DeLydk20ugUUyceEyel8zxoFuIq83He6sO2w0JIbBWwWVHDkfYJTdH5CNE3RYqZVrMk97N0fbQ\/2kfKgxdrriZmwHDG11a0WijjLMHoYVbqXcG3WpyrWpKSo13TBz\/xTNUTIst1dGTodUL\/Kwc9A\/1dGmh4\/h+y2oPNCwv9BlhQZ\/xkCH4sP8tX7sKYbWYEXC91ssLzCcH\/pHPpjjkr3zIxS8Axa9Z91W5crkYyzREiDcLaVd5qFbBMTClZw5vU4cl\/lIXcL8DvfrOjh4yUvGd06ufqPlA+9+BwPEECLu4koqsYUNodsiO3mVkcMhk5rB3rD9kIneY\/CnuxXnO+EH3nSp6Nwszszo\/RJe3N5JZxxlr2m7lY\/oEY\/rEjk6zqX5i6qR+YeSU9j+xQdUQEsk\/cZ2yPssFtLhgR1+yWS6yFq8o+cL6C1YpCIumBOdyRXtX9GiWmWJkLd3BVWb1qFey7kihrMb6Gcb6mR19y2b\/mY\/VC81vtP9ZLcMjIygEd2WbTofUA5P8lGqqQzf3aahOMa\/GRJuTCLLSWVRnS8DbMMxZwlBBKyGsHw60e3nWa3iRWXErj4LgQKhkQCAfQSexwiXlnMf2PQV3XJ1VuC5hC79XCKscABZT+bgoZK3j1wBAigtrBDPiM2M\/mETdheCwZupC+x3Dc5IHrEwU0N6vjIh8tVoeWS1uzQATlijQC1kvZCr1eg9BU6iDAm7myf7qKaa5v8Ov4BUORMBlWLQp\/b2uZQbsOih16zgKCSqKa0vANUkAS+jX5de8DGee97hEagShlg1VsBEm94Dgc+qJuYhWOvyd+I0L9RzPK1TKy3X0Bupt+UM5UJF5sXIuqohFi3cGQLJWoa\/IBoALH0vjlPNv8jEK+OEuJ\/l1tSRUqipqTNVXvsR8x8tVhYNbOoa0cAwpHMBwSXceAukyz8vCgauzd0D5JovG44AamY5uR7INnmtjp4oRClSslVgo7jZZVvHwbV68HuWpxH2A+DpysiuPMscPOuJuL7bZZCn5fIUCEpnqnl+bmZ1\/SE8V3LIoccbco+SS0an5mCEQOMIysTpoj\/kpEGe0Jx7EthW\/RcZtPd216pNTtOqE+jr0Ja38rXBZ1x3\/dDuJFqFIZZQps\/d+Y3hVtjzL9O7C8rwL60uUtvABEyWWYbvBsLn1Uu5c8YYvoGXYsS\/3MjzLbwgXDKQqXQ\/kq0oiiA18BBf7NA4ciFbiEbgW8qdxlDCHSxmCpF3S2ttQ+IJzBo4minBOsntVMqh86l1m2cY\/FZw7P\/3omLqfsqXf+9Tb+4319i5pMZ85jPlfNXclTGgSGcdchSNNwqDGgastqhhUl4Z099emD6nIasskzpR3CUqKmjK0PBgA2L8YXv2LVd2tpV+jZW0Ff+kbtz4C7CSOqZM4oUuNaCSC0mJnDFFcMk64IioYtpU6Z4aOWrLo6Sv4lkfuPtkWP6bVTb1zkocfaIkf8uqWbvldRFpbMkQN9tG\/2NOHn4shn3q\/sZrtm23GT6V7VTMEQbLbPSZhWYz8k+282UPS2L0Sf1F3GEvog\/v1lt41p9HQD2ju3gv26xqxOmelEhL2wizzuQg8OGoftHpb7uq0mLBuBMpotJ31vCv8Yyv5ReB6m7DxQbMCPfGMsRVYogkMkV6aqy1c6gemjJJotA9F6ECmSK7JRpU3gjebP5+VAP1PVsiH\/yez2q9BBw7rpW8E2E1vE98b0+IGyd\/LyKPMmW7bGJJT1SafaJWbhyC2PfXD5kRX+etwZkrSSI6ZNfYuf+bHSDD4VZQ4zSgxRG5l95ptvoKD0kbcr\/SpN1FyWPGgKC3MJ+0Eia3w6b98Y4M46P0MPZSi5LSTBOaiWo6o+wwwhAoMiQBDqCjmTzvP809yOiNWryirzvzqCZOl4lfVlWh7I3C6LjC8BVpIanhh6\/cfG0HG13MSpd22IPZmNPE5JdS\/LOKm\/hGPGNE\/c45FiHBgNi5IXtme+Z1lu3W9Fg+iBLT2O8vKVfYrmaU4qei9QgSoG0Nl20BqQuY7PBNpqW3Fj5UBogldpb74zjlhJIFMQ\/xL96ddEvUJw907ap5IoeKv+qs3dksTZ6DYOGNHf2VahTNQbPzF+mdst0whi+ySKk62xIoyhryIUnYXxfUX+NXxmKXra7S2BMrhimW4SMa6h4hNRrXI7XlI9MuamXZ3UZfX6T6povnHIna8qR8OncQy4FwZx8Y\/81\/bT+KNmIdl9Pkp\/CcRzxDX63vZk7Y6u29IESK47ryv1EYCr4f6ZWq3px8vP9yhqi\/8jmOsTIiS6NfdihXmRJ4T8pzSi6YT7V4vfCsV3KDR5e1+pDros1WB1LD5ZUH37Bio6TyUvsTsWZGYFtV87YSIflulKrvlurI6Z1V+B51gdtg\/7dc9Hq9\/RF61esov9ZhmP48ODlvb\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svg{display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-gs-03-full.nxe svg.nx-i{display:inline-block;width:18px;height:18px;vertical-align:-3px}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-gs-03-full.nxe :where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-nr-gcri-editions-gs-03-full.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><div class=\"nrp\"><div class=\"nrp-wrap\"><p class=\"nrj-draft\" data-nrj-shared=\"draft\" role=\"note\"><strong>Draft, not yet released.<\/strong> In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.<\/p><article class=\"nrp-flow\"><header class=\"nrp-hero\"><div class=\"nrp-hero-grid\"><div><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Baseline Edition 2026<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Complete edition<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h1 class=\"pp-hero-title nrp-hero-title-l\">Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\u2019s Food and Agrifood Systems.<\/h1><p class=\"nrp-lede\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-actions\"><button class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" type=\"button\" data-nrp-act=\"print\" hidden><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M6 18H4a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-5a2 2 0 0 1 2-2h16a2 2 0 0 1 2 2v5a2 2 0 0 1-2 2h-2\"\/><path d=\"M6 9V3a1 1 0 0 1 1-1h10a1 1 0 0 1 1 1v6\"\/><rect x=\"6\" y=\"14\" width=\"12\" height=\"8\" rx=\"1\"\/><\/svg>Print or save as PDF<\/button><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M19 12H5\"\/><path d=\"m12 19-7-7 7-7\"\/><\/svg>Edition home<\/a><\/div><p class=\"nrp-note nrp-noprint\">Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.<\/p><\/div><div><div class=\"nrp-cover\"><div class=\"nrp-cover-top\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GS-03<\/span><\/div><span class=\"nrp-cover-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><p class=\"nrp-cover-k\">Global Sector Risk and Resilience<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-t\">Global Food 2026<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cover-s\"><\/p><div class=\"nrp-cover-foot\"><span>Baseline Edition 2026<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><span><abbr title=\"The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation\">GCRI<\/abbr> for the Nexus Consortium<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block nrp-imprint\" aria-label=\"Imprint\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Imprint<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto<\/dd><dt>Report number<\/dt><dd class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026, cut DC-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Status<\/dt><dd>Draft under stewardship review; not yet released<\/dd><dt>DOI and UNI<\/dt><dd>Issued at deposit<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence<\/dd><dt>Cite as<\/dt><dd>Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\u2019s Food and Agrifood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a>. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" aria-label=\"Contents\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Contents<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">\u00b7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-part-summary\">Executive summary<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-part-coupled-system\">Chapter 1. Food is where the systems meet<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-part-findings\">Chapter 2. Key findings<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-part-systems-and-sectors\">Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-part-risk-and-capability\">Chapter 4. Risks and capability<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-part-scenario\">Chapter 5. Harvest shortfall under high input costs<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-part-lenses-and-readings\">Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">7<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-part-agenda\">Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">8<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-part-systems-in-depth\">Chapter 8. Systems in depth<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">A<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-part-methodology\">Annex A. Methodology<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">B<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-part-data\">Annex B. Data appendix<\/a><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">C<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-part-references\">Annex C. References and record<\/a><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-part-summary\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\">Global Food 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Executive summary<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Executive summary<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>7 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.1<\/span><span>Abstract<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>The world enters 2027 with a food system that is exposed to several shocks at once. Hunger affected an estimated 7.8% of the world population in 2025, about 645 million people, down from 8.1% in 2024, and Africa now hosts the largest number of hungry people<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. About 2.1 billion people (25.8%) were moderately or severely food insecure, and about 2.69 billion could not afford a healthy diet<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> stayed high: about 266 million people in 47 countries and territories faced crisis levels or worse in 2025, and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.famine\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Extreme food deprivation with widespread starvation, acute malnutrition and rising deaths in a population.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">famine<\/a> was confirmed in parts of the Gaza Strip and the Sudan<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. The 2026 Middle East conflict cut export volumes through the Strait of Hormuz to less than 10% of pre-conflict levels in early March, and up to 30% of internationally traded fertilisers normally transit the strait<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>. International food prices rose: the FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August 2026, 2.5% above a year earlier<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup>. El Ni\u00f1o is forecast to persist into early 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>. Its effect on harvests and on the following lean season is not bound at the close. In early September FAO forecast world cereal output at 2,980 million tonnes, 2.0% below the 2025 record and still the second largest on record<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup>. Food <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> also emit: 16.5 Gt CO2eq in 2023, 32% of anthropogenic emissions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup>. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It ranks no country and recommends no policy.<\/p><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.2<\/span><span>Key messages<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Six readings that frame the food baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-km\"><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 645 million in 2025, 7.8% of the world population, with Africa now the largest share.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How many people face hunger?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes, slowly. 25.8% were moderately or severely food insecure in 2025, down from 28.7% in 2020.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> falling?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 2.69 billion could not in 2025, and the share is rising in Africa at 66.6%.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Can people afford healthy diets?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">About 266 million people in 47 countries and territories, with <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.famine\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Extreme food deprivation with widespread starvation, acute malnutrition and rising deaths in a population.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">famine<\/a> confirmed in Gaza and the Sudan in 2025.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>How severe are the acute crises?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Fertiliser and fuel supply and prices, through Gulf exports and the Strait of Hormuz.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What did the 2026 conflict change for farms?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Yes. The FAO index was 2.5% above a year earlier in August 2026.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Are food prices rising?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">Output is forecast at the second largest on record, with ending stocks of 947.2 million tonnes and Black Sea routes flagged as a risk.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>Is there enough grain?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/p><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">A harvest shortfall that coincides with high input costs and constrained exports. SCN-GS03-HRV-01<\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-m\"><span>What will 2027 test first?<\/span><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.3<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002<\/span><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">In 2025, hunger affected 309 million people in Africa, 292 million in Asia and 32 million in Latin America and the Caribbean.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure S.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-fig1-t\">People facing hunger by region, 2025 (million)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Africa<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">309<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Asia<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"94.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">292<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Latin America and the Caribbean<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"10.4\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">32<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: SOFI 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><p class=\"nrp-p\">For the first time Africa hosts the largest number of hungry people. One in five Africans faced hunger in 2025, against 6.0% in Asia and 4.8% in Latin America and the Caribbean. By 2030 the SOFI scenarios place 56% of those facing hunger in Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.4<\/span><span>At a glance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">7.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>population facing hunger, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>food insecure, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">266<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a>, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">133.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">points<\/span><p>Food Price Index, August 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2,980<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million tonnes<\/span><p>cereal output forecast, 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Gt CO2eq<\/span><p>agrifood emissions, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.5<\/span><span>What each steward reads in it<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading food as the coupling layer of the WEFH+B system.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Forum\">GRF<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people food risk arrives as a price, a meal skipped or a lean season.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><abbr title=\"The Global Risks Alliance\">GRA<\/abbr> \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Import bills are at a record, price volatility has risen and humanitarian funding is falling.<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The food system is well measured at the level of hunger, prices and stocks and thinly measured at the level of input use, losses and local yields.<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">S.6<\/span><span>What this edition is, and is not<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What this edition is<\/h3><p>A baseline: the 2026 state of the world\u2019s food and agrifood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What it is not<\/h3><p>Not a food-security ranking, a forecast of prices or harvests, a supply recommendation or an assessment of any farmer, company, regulator or government. Agricultural policy, markets and food safety rest with national authorities, producers and traders.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">What comes next<\/h3><p>National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 food edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cs-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-part-coupled-system\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\">Global Food 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 1<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Food is where the systems meet<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>7 min read<\/span><span>2 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>14 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.1<\/span><span>The questions this part answers<\/span><\/h2><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Key questions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Where is food risk concentrated?<\/li><li>Which couplings carry food shocks into other <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>?<\/li><li>Which food capabilities hold under compound stress?<\/li><li>What must 2027 evidence measure first?<\/li><\/ul><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">In this part<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Narrative<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Headline finding<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Lead figure<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Five coupling chapters<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Twelve-domain reading<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Sector screens<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Dependency matrix<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Risk objects<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Capability ladder<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Scenario<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Three lenses<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Portfolio<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.2<\/span><span>The argument<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-prose\"><p>Food is usually reported as a sector: crops, prices, hunger. The 2026 evidence reads it as the place where the risks of several <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> arrive together. Rainfall and irrigation, fertiliser and fuel, shipping routes, household income and public health all shape what reaches a plate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>On people, the evidence is mixed. Hunger and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> have fallen for several years, and the long upward trend in Africa has halted, yet 645 million people still faced hunger in 2025 and Africa now hosts the largest number<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>. Healthy diets remain out of reach for about 2.69 billion people<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>On supply, the baseline is steady but tight in places. World cereal output is forecast at the second largest on record, while wheat output is forecast down 3.8% and Black Sea shipping is flagged as a risk to trade<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup>. Prices have risen: the FAO index was 2.5% above a year earlier in August 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup>. SOFI scenarios project between 510 and 520 million people facing hunger in 2030, 56% of them in Africa; these are scenario outputs, not forecasts<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><p>On shocks, three arrive together. The 2026 conflict disrupted fertiliser and fuel supply<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>. A very strong El Ni\u00f1o is forecast into early 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup>. Humanitarian funding is shrinking just as acute crises persist<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. No single indicator in this edition measures that combination, which is why it is the first item on the 2027 agenda.<\/p><\/div><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-fig1-t\">How unevenly is hunger spread? Share of the population facing hunger, 2025 (%)<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">The African share is more than two and a half times the world share. Latin America and the Caribbean and Asia have shown steady progress for several years, and the long upward trend in Africa halted in 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Africa<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">20<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Oceania<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"40.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">World<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"39.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">7.8<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Asia<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"30.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">6<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Latin America and the Caribbean<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"24.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">4.8<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Figure ID FIG-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">309<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>people facing hunger in Africa, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">645<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>people facing hunger worldwide, point estimate, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">66.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of Africans unable to afford a healthy diet, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">56<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>share of hunger in Africa by 2030, SOFI scenarios<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.3<\/span><span>Twenty couplings between five systems<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The food-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>, read for their food content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-fig2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-fig2-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-fig2-t\">Couplings between the five systems<\/span><p class=\"nrp-fig-what\">Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.<\/p><\/figcaption><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-ring\" viewBox=\"0 0 340 340\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Coupling ring: 20 typed couplings between water, energy, food, health and biodiversity. The matrix in the next table carries every value.\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><ul class=\"nrp-legend\"><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"STRONG\"><\/span>Strong<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"MODERATE\"><\/span>Moderate<\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-key\" data-w=\"WEAK\"><\/span>Weak<\/li><\/ul><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: this edition&#8217;s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.<\/p><\/figure><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">From, to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">WAT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">ENE<\/th><th scope=\"col\">FOO<\/th><th scope=\"col\">HLT<\/th><th scope=\"col\">BIO<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><b>WAT<\/b> Water<\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">hydropower \u00b7 cooling<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation \u00b7 rainfed supply<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">safe supply \u00b7 hygiene<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">river flows<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>ENE<\/b> Energy<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pumping \u00b7 treatment<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">fertiliser \u00b7 fuel \u00b7 cold chain<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">clean cooking \u00b7 clinics<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">mining \u00b7 land use<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>FOO<\/b> Food<\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">irrigation withdrawals \u00b7 nutrient runoff<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">bioenergy \u00b7 farm fuel<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">nutrition \u00b7 foodborne disease<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">land conversion \u00b7 overfishing<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>HLT<\/b> Health<\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">workforce<\/span><\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">labour \u00b7 zoonoses<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">residues<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><b>BIO<\/b> Biodiversity<\/td><td>MODERATE<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">catchments<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">biomass<\/span><\/td><td>STRONG<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">pollination \u00b7 soils \u00b7 fish stocks<\/span><\/td><td>WEAK<br><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">zoonoses<\/span><\/td><td><span aria-label=\"same system\">\u00b7<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"6\">Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Transmission paths<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 FOO \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A strong El Ni\u00f1o disrupts rainfall and heat; yields fall, and import bills and food prices rise.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span> 2026 El Ni\u00f1o outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Gas, fuel and fertiliser price shocks reach farm costs, yields and food prices.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2026 Gulf disruption<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">A constrained export route cuts grain trade and shifts importers to other origins.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2026 Black Sea constraints<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FOO \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Unaffordable diets and acute crises raise malnutrition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> 2025 nutrition crises<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FOO \u2192 BIO \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Land conversion and overfishing erode the base that supplies food.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> marine stocks<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup>; degraded land<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">1.4<\/span><span>Reinforcing loops<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 1.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Loop<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First direction<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Second direction<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT and FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Water to food: irrigation \u00b7 rainfed supply<\/td><td>Food to water: irrigation withdrawals \u00b7 nutrient runoff<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO and BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Food to biodiversity: land conversion \u00b7 overfishing<\/td><td>Biodiversity to food: pollination \u00b7 soils \u00b7 fish stocks<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"3\">A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of the World\u2019s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 (data as of 16 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h26\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.land.land-degradation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Land and wetland degradation\" data-td=\"Long-term decline of the productivity and health of land from erosion, nutrient loss, compaction or salting.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H26\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">land degradation<\/a> across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c1-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-part-findings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\">Global Food 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 2<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Key findings<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Twelve findings carry the food baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>1 figure<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>10 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.1<\/span><span>Headline finding<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-km-t\">In 2025, hunger affected 309 million people in Africa, 292 million in Asia and 32 million in Latin America and the Caribbean.<\/p><figure class=\"nrp-fig\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-fig1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-fig1-t\"><figcaption class=\"nrp-figcap\"><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Figure 2.1<\/span><span class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-fig1-t\">People facing hunger by region, 2025 (million)<\/span><\/figcaption><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl nrp-bars\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\"><span class=\"nrp-sr\">Bar, scaled to the largest value<\/span><\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><th scope=\"row\">Africa<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100.0\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">309<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Asia<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"94.5\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">292<\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Latin America and the Caribbean<\/th><td class=\"nrp-barc\"><svg class=\"nrp-svg nrp-barsvg\" viewBox=\"0 0 100 8\" preserveAspectRatio=\"none\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><rect class=\"nrp-track\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"100\" height=\"8\"\/><rect class=\"nrp-bar\" x=\"0\" y=\"0\" width=\"10.4\" height=\"8\"\/><\/svg><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\">32<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nrp-fig-src\">Source: SOFI 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><\/figure><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Implication<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">For the first time Africa hosts the largest number of hungry people. One in five Africans faced hunger in 2025, against 6.0% in Asia and 4.8% in Latin America and the Caribbean. By 2030 the SOFI scenarios place 56% of those facing hunger in Africa<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">What would move it<\/h3><p class=\"nrp-p\">The next SOFI report, the 2026 El Ni\u00f1o lean season and the path of fertiliser prices would each move this finding.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.2<\/span><span>Food<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-001\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-001\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-001<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">An estimated 7.8% of the world population faced hunger in 2025, about 645 million people (range 608 to 696 million), down from 8.1% in 2024 and 8.6% in 2022, but about 50 million more people than in 2015.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-002<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Africa now hosts the largest number of hungry people: 309 million in 2025, against 292 million in Asia and 32 million in Latin America and the Caribbean, or 20.0%, 6.0% and 4.8% of their populations.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-003\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-003\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-003<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 2.1 billion people (25.8%) were moderately or severely food insecure in 2025, down from 27.1% in 2024 and 28.7% in 2020, and 778.6 million (9.5%) were severely food insecure.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">FAO forecast in early September 2026 that world cereal output would be 2,980 million tonnes, 2.0% below the 2025 record and still the second largest on record, with 2026\/27 trade at 509.3 million tonnes and Black Sea export routes flagged as a risk; USDA stocks and Russian wheat exports are NOT BOUND at the close.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.3<\/span><span>Health<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-004<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 2.69 billion people (32.7%) could not afford a healthy diet in 2025, down from 2.97 billion in 2021, but the share rose to 66.6% in Africa, and the global cost of a healthy diet rose to 4.28 PPP dollars from 2.94 in 2017.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-011\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-011\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-011<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">WHO estimates 866 million foodborne illnesses and 1.52 million deaths in 2021, with a productivity and medical cost of USD 310 billion a year.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.4<\/span><span>Governance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-005<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">About 266 million people in 47 countries and territories faced high levels of acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> in 2025, 22.9% of the analysed population, with <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.famine\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Extreme food deprivation with widespread starvation, acute malnutrition and rising deaths in a population.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">famine<\/a> confirmed in parts of the Gaza Strip and the Sudan; the total mainly reflects fewer countries analysed than in 2024.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.5<\/span><span>Trade<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-006\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-006\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-006<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Export volumes through the Strait of Hormuz fell below 10% of pre-conflict levels by early March 2026; up to 30% of internationally traded fertilisers and 30 to 35% of urea exports normally come from or transit the Gulf, and there are no internationally coordinated fertiliser reserves.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.6<\/span><span>Finance<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The FAO Food Price Index averaged 133.3 points in August 2026, 2.5% above a year earlier and 1.9% above July; wheat prices were 15.0% above a year earlier and maize prices rose 2.5% in the month.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.7<\/span><span>Climate forcing<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-009<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">WMO forecasts a near-100% probability that El Ni\u00f1o persists through December 2026 to February 2027; its effect on 2027 harvests and on the following lean season is NOT BOUND at the close.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-010<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">Agrifood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> emitted 16.5 Gt CO2eq in 2023, 32% of anthropogenic emissions, against 18 Gt and 34% for 2015 in the EDGAR-FOOD estimate and a range of 21 to 37% in the IPCC assessment.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">2.8<\/span><span>Systemic<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li id=\"nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\"><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><a class=\"nrp-find-id\" href=\"#nx-NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012\">NRF-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-find-t\">The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is an El Ni\u00f1o harvest shortfall that coincides with high fertiliser and freight costs and constrained Black Sea exports, hitting import-dependent low-income countries as humanitarian funding falls. \u00a7 scenario<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Guizzardi, D. et al., Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, Nature Food 2, 198 to 209, 2021 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>IPCC (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> and Land: Special Report on climate change, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h26\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.land.desertification\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Land and wetland degradation\" data-td=\"Degradation of dryland into desert-like conditions through climate change and unsustainable land use.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H26\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">desertification<\/a>, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h26\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.land.land-degradation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Land and wetland degradation\" data-td=\"Long-term decline of the productivity and health of land from erosion, nutrient loss, compaction or salting.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H26\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">land degradation<\/a>, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, Summary for Policymakers (updated January 2020). IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c2-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-part-systems-and-sectors\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\">Global Food 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 3<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems and sectors at baseline<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>6 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>2 tables<\/span><span>16 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.1<\/span><span>Where each system stood at evidence close<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FOO \u00b7 Food<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Population facing hunger<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">7.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>about 645 million people; 8.1% in 2024.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>FAO and partners<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FOO \u00b7 Food<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Moderately or severely food insecure<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>25.8% of the world population; 778.6 million severely.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>FAO and partners<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HLT \u00b7 Health<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People unable to afford a healthy diet<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.69<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>32.7% of people; 66.6% in Africa.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>FAO and partners<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIN \u00b7 Finance<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">FAO Food Price Index<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">133.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">points<\/span><p>August 2026, up 2.5% on a year earlier.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2026<\/span><span>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GOV \u00b7 Governance<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">People in acute food insecurity, 47 countries and territories<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">266<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>22.9% of the analysed population.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span>2025<\/span><span>GRFC 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nrp-cell\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SYS \u00b7 Cross-system<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">World cereal ending stocks (forecast)<\/h3><span class=\"pp-metric\">947.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million tonnes<\/span><p>cut by 10.7 million tonnes since July.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-cell-foot\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><span>2026\/27<\/span><span>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/span><\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.2<\/span><span>Domain posture<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through food, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries food risk into each domain.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Each domain read in words, not scored<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Domain<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Posture at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coupling<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">WAT<\/span><\/td><td>Agriculture is about 72% of freshwater withdrawals; 22.5% of cropland is irrigated and yields 48% of crop value; 171 million hectares of irrigated land face high water stress.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2194 WAT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE<\/span><\/td><td>Nitrogen fertiliser, farm fuel, freight and biofuel demand tie food to gas and oil; the 2026 Gulf disruption showed the link.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO<\/span><\/td><td>Hunger 7.8%, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> 25.8%, prices up 2.5% on a year, cereal output the second largest on record.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">the core system<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 5<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HLT<\/span><\/td><td>About 2.69 billion people cannot afford a healthy diet; 866 million foodborne illnesses in 2021.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2192 HLT<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">BIO<\/span><\/td><td>Marine stocks within sustainable levels fell to 62.4%; 1.7 billion people live in areas with degradation-induced yield losses.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2194 BIO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CLI<\/span><\/td><td>Agrifood emissions of 16.5 Gt CO2eq; a strong El Ni\u00f1o and heat shift yields and lean seasons.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2194 CLI<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INF<\/span><\/td><td>Ports, shipping lanes, storage and cold chains carry food; Black Sea routes were constrained in 2026.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2194 INF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIN<\/span><\/td><td>The world food import bill reached USD 2,218.4 billion in 2025; humanitarian food aid could fall about 45% between 2024 and 2026.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2194 FIN<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT<\/span><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a> rests on IPC, price and weather data; the acute food insecurity total depends on how many countries are analysed.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DAT \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC<\/span><\/td><td>Satellite and model-based monitoring supports yield and price watching; the evidence is not consolidated here.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">AIC \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 2<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN<\/span><\/td><td>Phosphate, sulphur and potash are fertiliser inputs; the Gulf supplies a large share of traded nitrogen and sulphur.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MIN \u2192 FOO<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">TRD<\/span><\/td><td>Cereal trade for 2026\/27 is forecast at 509.3 million tonnes, with Black Sea routes flagged as a risk.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FOO \u2194 TRD<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span> <span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">3.3<\/span><span>Sector screens<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on food, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 3.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Code<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Sector<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Exposure to watch<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence coverage<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-00<\/span><\/td><td>Cross-system<\/td><td>food couples every other system<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>harvest shortfall under high input costs<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-01<\/span><\/td><td>Water<\/td><td>irrigation is about 72% of withdrawals<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>monsoon and El Ni\u00f1o rainfall<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-02<\/span><\/td><td>Energy<\/td><td>fertiliser and fuel prices follow gas and oil<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>gas and fertiliser price shock<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td>Food<\/td><td>hunger 7.8%, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> 25.8%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>harvest and input shock<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-04<\/span><\/td><td>Health<\/td><td>2.69 billion cannot afford a healthy diet<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>malnutrition and foodborne disease<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-05<\/span><\/td><td>Finance<\/td><td>import bill USD 2,218.4 billion<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>price volatility<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-06<\/span><\/td><td>Development<\/td><td>acute food insecurity in 47 countries and territories<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>funding decline<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-07<\/span><\/td><td>Climate<\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o forecast into early 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>concurrent yield losses<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-08<\/span><\/td><td>Disaster<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.famine\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Extreme food deprivation with widespread starvation, acute malnutrition and rising deaths in a population.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">famine<\/a> risk in four contexts in 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>conflict and weather extremes<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-09<\/span><\/td><td>Infrastructure<\/td><td>shipping routes and storage carry food<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>route constraints<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-10<\/span><\/td><td>Cities<\/td><td>food inflation reaches urban households<\/td><td>price pass-through<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-11<\/span><\/td><td>Biodiversity<\/td><td>marine stocks 62.4% sustainable<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>overfishing and land conversion<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-12<\/span><\/td><td>Earth observation<\/td><td>crop and rainfall monitoring supports warning<\/td><td>continuity of missions<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-13<\/span><\/td><td>Cyber and digital<\/td><td>trade and logistics platforms<\/td><td>attacks on supply chains<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-14<\/span><\/td><td>Policy<\/td><td>food safety and trade rules<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>export restrictions<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">GS-15<\/span><\/td><td>Science<\/td><td>strong crop-climate science<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>blind spots on concurrent failures<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of the World\u2019s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a>, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>FAO and WHO (eds.), Codex Alimentarius Commission, portal pages (strategic plan 2026 to 2031 and committee news). Codex Alimentarius, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EC) No 178\/2002 laying down the general principles and requirements of food law (General Food Law), Official Journal of the European Communities, 2002, cited from memory. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Kornhuber, K. et al., Risks of synchronised low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections, Nature Communications, 2023 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Clark, M. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate change<\/a> has likely already affected global food production, PLOS ONE 14(5), e0217148, 2019 (open access, full text). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c3-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-part-risk-and-capability\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\">Global Food 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 4<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Risks and capability<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Four food risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.1<\/span><span>Risk objects<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-find\"><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS03-TRD-001<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Constrained grain and fertiliser trade routes<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>conflict-related disruption to Black Sea shipping and to Gulf fertiliser exports<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>import-dependent economies and farmers who rely on imported nitrogen<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>few alternative routes; no coordinated fertiliser reserves<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>grain ending stocks of 947.2 million tonnes forecast for 2026\/27; alternative origins<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>TRD \u2192 FOO, FIN, HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS03-CLI-002<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Concurrent harvest shortfalls under a strong El Ni\u00f1o<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>El Ni\u00f1o rainfall and heat anomalies; meandering jet streams raise the odds of concurrent low yields<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>rainfed and import-dependent regions, and the following lean season (not bound at close)<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>models underestimate concurrent losses<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup>; each degree of warming lowers yields of major crops<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>stocks; irrigation; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a>; adapted varieties<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>CLI \u2192 FOO \u2192 FIN, HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS03-GOV-003<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Protracted conflict and shrinking humanitarian funding<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>conflict, weather extremes, high prices and falling aid<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>ten countries hold about two thirds of acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.famine\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Extreme food deprivation with widespread starvation, acute malnutrition and rising deaths in a population.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">famine<\/a> risk in four contexts; displaced people most affected<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 anticipatory-action\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Actions taken ahead of a predicted hazard, on the basis of a forecast or risk analysis, to prevent or reduce its humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">anticipatory action<\/a>; humanitarian assistance; national safety nets<\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>GOV \u2192 FOO, HLT<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 3 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><li><p class=\"nrp-find-m\"><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><span class=\"nrp-eql\" title=\"Evidence-quality level, 1 to 5\">EQL 3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-find-id\">RSK-GS03-HLT-004<\/span><\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h4\">Animal disease and foodborne hazards on global supply chains<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Driver<\/dt><dd>persistent avian influenza in wild birds and poultry<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup>; contamination along long chains<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Exposure<\/dt><dd>poultry and egg supply; traded fresh produce and animal products<\/dd><dt>Vulnerability<\/dt><dd>uneven surveillance; trade restrictions that go beyond risk<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Capacity<\/dt><dd>surveillance; biosecurity; Codex standards<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Cascade<\/dt><dd>HLT \u2192 FOO, TRD<\/dd><dt>Horizon<\/dt><dd>1 to 5 years<\/dd><\/dl><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">4.2<\/span><span>Capability ladder<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for food at the global level.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 4.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Function<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rung<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Level<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Strongest public evidence at baseline<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Prevention and mitigation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>food safety <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and Codex standards widespread; implementation uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monitoring and observation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>IPC, price and cereal monitoring are regular<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.famine\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Extreme food deprivation with widespread starvation, acute malnutrition and rising deaths in a population.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">famine<\/a> risk identified in advance; El Ni\u00f1o outlook issued months ahead<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Preparedness and planning<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>national plans documented; not consolidated here<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Redundancy and reserves<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>cereal ending stocks of 947.2 million tonnes forecast for 2026\/27; no coordinated fertiliser reserves<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Response<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>DEMONSTRATED<\/td><td>humanitarian food assistance at scale; funding falling<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Continuity of critical services<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>ports and shipping continuity; alternative Black Sea capacity insufficient<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Recovery<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> improved in the Gaza Strip after the October 2025 ceasefire, though fragile<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Adaptation<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>irrigation, cold-chain and research investment identified; adoption uneven<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Social protection<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>subsidy and safety-net instruments recorded; effects not consolidated here<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Finance and insurance<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>farm credit and import finance not consolidated here<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Institutional coordination<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>EXISTS<\/td><td>GNAFC, Codex and joint FAO and WHO food safety work<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Technical infrastructure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>cold-chain and post-harvest deficits reported<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Workforce<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i data-on=\"true\"><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>LISTED<\/td><td>agriculture employs about 25.8% of workers worldwide, modelled; extension capacity not consolidated<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Research capacity<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-ladder\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><i><\/i><\/span><\/td><td>ADEQUATE<\/td><td>strong crop and climate science; blind spots on concurrent failures<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"4\">A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Kornhuber, K. et al., Risks of synchronised low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections, Nature Communications, 2023 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a>, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>WOAH (ed.), High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) Situation Report 87 (period covered September 2026). World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>FAO and WHO (eds.), Codex Alimentarius Commission, portal pages (strategic plan 2026 to 2031 and committee news). Codex Alimentarius, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h26\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.land.land-degradation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Land and wetland degradation\" data-td=\"Long-term decline of the productivity and health of land from erosion, nutrient loss, compaction or salting.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H26\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">land degradation<\/a> across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c4-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-part-scenario\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\">Global Food 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 5<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Harvest shortfall under high input costs<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>2 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>0 tables<\/span><span>3 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.1<\/span><span>Assumptions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Baseline<\/dt><dd>the 2026 reference state in this edition<\/dd><dt>Drivers<\/dt><dd>a strong El Ni\u00f1o that cuts yields in several regions while fertiliser, fuel and freight costs stay high and one major export route stays constrained<\/dd><dt>Analogues<\/dt><dd>the 2026 Gulf and Black Sea disruptions<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>; the El Ni\u00f1o outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Interventions<\/dt><dd>none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case<\/dd><dt>Run state<\/dt><dd>narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.2<\/span><span>The cascade, step by step<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">1<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">ENE \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">fertiliser and fuel costs stay high; farmers cut input use<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">2<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">CLI \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">rainfall and heat anomalies lower yields in several regions<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">3<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">TRD \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">export availability falls; importers compete for other origins<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">4<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FOO \u2192 FIN<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">import bills and domestic food prices rise<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025 \u00b7 2026<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">5<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">FOO \u2192 HLT<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">diet quality falls and acute malnutrition rises in the lean season<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2025<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">6<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">GOV \u2192 FOO<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\"><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 humanitarian-need\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A shortfall in the conditions people require for life, health, safety and dignity, as a result of a crisis.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">humanitarian need<\/a> grows as funding falls<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">2026<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">5.3<\/span><span>The scenario as a table of steps<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">How the shock in scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01 would travel through Global Food and Agrifood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a>&#8216;s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Energy to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Fertiliser and fuel costs stay high; farmers cut input use. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-03, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01, step 1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 Climate to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Rainfall and heat anomalies lower yields in several regions. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-03, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01, step 2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 Trade to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Export availability falls; importers compete for other origins. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-03, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01, step 3<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 Food to finance<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Import bills and domestic food prices rise. Analogue or source: 2025 \u00b7 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-03, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01, step 4<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 Food to health<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Diet quality falls and acute malnutrition rises in the lean season. Analogue or source: 2025.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-03, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01, step 5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Governance to food<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\"><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 humanitarian-need\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A shortfall in the conditions people require for life, health, safety and dignity, as a result of a crisis.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Humanitarian need<\/a> grows as funding falls. Analogue or source: 2026.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\">Edition GS-03, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01, step 6<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition&#8217;s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/scenario\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Global Food 2026, scenario SCN-GS03-HRV-01<\/a> (2026); Global Food 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c5-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-part-lenses-and-readings\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\">Global Food 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 6<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Readings from the other desks<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The food baseline is read through each steward\u2019s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks&#8217; own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>18 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>47 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.1<\/span><span>The other desks&#8217; editions of this subject<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Desk<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-host=\"true\"><th scope=\"row\">GCRI Systems Evidence<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRF Public Deliberation<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">GRA Capital Readiness<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Standards Progress<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Academy Capability<\/th><td>No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in this cycle<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><th scope=\"row\">Index Measurement<\/th><td>Outside this desk&#8217;s remit<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Not in remit<\/span><\/td><td class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.2<\/span><span>Three lenses<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\" data-n=\"3\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\" data-host=\"true\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 KEY T<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Technical Truth<\/h3><p>The evidence supports reading food as the coupling layer of the WEFH+B system. Hunger is falling slowly, supply is steady but tight, and three shocks arrive together: input costs, a strong El Ni\u00f1o and falling aid. Evidence is strongest for hunger and prices, and weakest for input use and yield effects in 2026.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FOO-001 \u00b7 FIN-007 \u00b7 TRD-006 \u00b7 SYS-012<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRF \u00b7 KEY M<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Public Meaning<\/h3><p>For most people food risk arrives as a price, a meal skipped or a lean season. The baseline asks that public debate keep the 2.69 billion who cannot afford a healthy diet in view alongside the trade and price story.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">HLT-004 \u00b7 FOO-002 \u00b7 FIN-007<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">GRA \u00b7 KEY F<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Capital Meaning<\/h3><p>Readiness implications only. Import bills are at a record, price volatility has risen and humanitarian funding is falling<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup>. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">FIN-007 \u00b7 GOV-005<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEXUS<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">Synthesis<\/h3><p>The food system is well measured at the level of hunger, prices and stocks and thinly measured at the level of input use, losses and local yields. The 2027 programme should test the harvest shortfall under high input costs, bind regional crop and trade evidence, and map route dependence before it becomes a shortage.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">SYS-012 \u00b7 F-01 \u00b7 F-04<\/p><\/article><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.3<\/span><span>Standards, Academy and steward contributions<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">How the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for food. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The quarterly rhythm every edition follows<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Quarter<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Boundary<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Q1<\/td><td>State and Agenda<\/td><td>What matters this year, and what is the starting position?<\/td><td>observed baseline stays distinct from planned work<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q2<\/td><td>Evidence and Build<\/td><td>What new evidence and capability exist?<\/td><td>a configured capability is not a validated result<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q3<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 stress-test\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An assessment of how a system, portfolio or institution would perform under severe but plausible adverse scenarios, to find weaknesses before they are revealed by events.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Stress Test<\/a> and Readiness<\/td><td>What do scenarios and tests show?<\/td><td>simulated loss or performance is not observed impact<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Q4<\/td><td>Annual Synthesis and Renewal<\/td><td>What changed in the year, and what renews?<\/td><td>release follows review, not event publicity deadlines<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Who contributes what each quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Steward or body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contribution route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>GCRI Canada<\/td><td>Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)<\/td><td>science and practice communities \u00b7 GCRI gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Forum (GRF)<\/td><td>leadership, dialogue and the <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/universe\">Universe<\/a> programme; public meaning (key M)<\/td><td>policy, Universe and national adoption \u00b7 GRF gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)<\/td><td>finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)<\/td><td>finance and insurance \u00b7 GRA gateway<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Nexus Standards<\/td><td>preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods<\/td><td>Standards site \u00b7 working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk Academy<\/td><td>learning pathways tied to the agenda questions<\/td><td>Academy gateway \u00b7 learning by review<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/programme\/reports\">Reports<\/a> sector desks<\/td><td>food chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, GRA readiness, NXS standards, RA capability<\/td><td>sector editorial board<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards drafts used in this edition<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary<\/li><li>Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects<\/li><li>Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Standards calendar to watch<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026<\/li><li>Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027<\/li><li>Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Nothing here certifies. A Nexus attestation records an evaluation under a mandate; it confers no certification, endorsement or approval. Adoption of any standard is a decision of the competent standards body.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.4<\/span><span>GCRI reading: the model card<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-p\">GCRI&#8217;s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/methodology\/\">Annex A, methodology<\/a><\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.5<\/span><span>Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Every food shock this decade has been a water event, an energy event and a health event at once. Treating food as a commodity market understates how it carries risk between systems. This edition asks where a food shock goes next.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 01<\/h3><p>Food is a coupling, not a sector<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Hunger and food insecurity have fallen for several years, and Africa\u2019s long rise has halted. The same year brought a fertiliser shock, a strong El Ni\u00f1o and falling aid. Progress that depends on cheap inputs and steady funding is not yet resilience.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 02<\/h3><p>Hunger is falling, and the fall is fragile<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">The cost of a healthy diet rose to 4.28 PPP dollars. Fewer people are priced out than in 2021, but in Africa more are. Measuring cost, not only calories, is the first adaptation.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 03<\/h3><p>Affordability is the quiet crisis<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Climate and crop models underestimate the chance of low yields in several regions at once. A strong El Ni\u00f1o is a reason to test that case, not a forecast of it.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EDITORIAL ESSAY \u00b7 04<\/h3><p>Concurrent failures are the blind spot<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Essays are signed views of the editorial team. Contributed articles from regional consortia, national pathways and invited experts begin with the 2027 global edition, each with its own review route and disclosures.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.6<\/span><span>Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 food readiness pack<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">2027 food readiness pack<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Register<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State at baseline<\/th><th scope=\"col\">First 2027 entry<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>E1<\/td><td>Food risk state delta<\/td><td>baseline set by this edition<\/td><td>changes against the baseline<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E2<\/td><td>WEFH+B state delta<\/td><td>five global system readings set<\/td><td>indicator updates and freshness<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E3<\/td><td>Agenda and Portfolio movement<\/td><td>eight agenda items \u00b7 6 proposed objects<\/td><td>admission decisions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E4<\/td><td>Federation delivery register<\/td><td>national chapters in preparation<\/td><td>national chapters<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E5<\/td><td>Consortium capability register<\/td><td>national consortia forming<\/td><td>first contributions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E6<\/td><td>Leadership questions and challenges<\/td><td>none yet<\/td><td>first challenge log<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E7<\/td><td>Foundry technical state<\/td><td>national environments prepared<\/td><td>first federation cut<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E8<\/td><td>Publication candidates<\/td><td>twelve findings carried forward<\/td><td>PUBLISH \u00b7 HOLD dispositions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E9<\/td><td>Universe readiness<\/td><td>one candidate mission<\/td><td>admission and role spine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>E10<\/td><td>Correction register<\/td><td>none<\/td><td>first federation-wide cycle<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication dispositions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Publish<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Hold<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Needs evidence<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Restricted<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">Superseded<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Programme progress is not real-world risk improvement. These registers record the work of the Nexus programme; they report on no state or organisation.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.7<\/span><span>Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Instruments and published guidance that shape the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one\u2019s compliance.<\/p><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">IN FORCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ADOPTED<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 GUIDANCE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Standards and regulatory watch<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Instrument<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Body<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Scope<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Relevance<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Codex Alimentarius standards and strategic plan 2026 to 2031<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n19\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO and WHO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>food safety<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>General Food Law, Regulation (EC) No 178\/2002<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n31\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Note 31\">31<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>food safety<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Regulation (EU) 2023\/1115 on deforestation-free products<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n29\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>land and trade<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Veterinary medicinal products regulation and antimicrobial import requirements, in effect 3 September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n30\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Note 30\">30<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Union<\/td><td>EU<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>animal health<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agreement on Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n33\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Note 33\">33<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Trade Organization<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>IN FORCE<\/td><td>trade<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ISO 22000 food safety management<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n32\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Note 32\">32<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>ISO<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>PUBLISHED \u00b7 VOLUNTARY<\/td><td>food safety<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n34\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Note 34\">34<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>Convention on Biological Diversity<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2022<\/td><td>land and nature<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Extended maternal, infant and young child nutrition targets to 2030<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Health Assembly<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>ADOPTED 2025<\/td><td>nutrition<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Changed since 2024<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>The UN Statistical Commission adopted minimum dietary diversity for children and for women as SDG indicators in March 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>WHO published global estimates of the burden of foodborne disease for 2000 to 2021 in 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>European Union antimicrobial-related import requirements for animal products took effect on 3 September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">To watch in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Application dates and scope of the EU <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> regulation<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n29\" aria-label=\"Note 29\">29<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The Codex strategic plan 2026 to 2031 and its work programme<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>National plans to track the extended 2030 nutrition targets<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Status is read from the issuing body on the retrieval date. Instruments open for signature or awaiting ratification are labelled as such; a change in status opens a review task for every finding that relies on the instrument.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">6.8<\/span><span>Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The review behind this edition covers food assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Review protocol<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Question<\/dt><dd>What does the published evidence establish about the world\u2019s food and agrifood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> and its couplings?<\/dd><dt>Sources searched<\/dt><dd>agency flagships; statistical releases; peer-reviewed crop, climate and food-system literature; regulator texts<\/dd><dt>Window<\/dt><dd>releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Selection<\/dt><dd>sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition<\/dd><dt>Next step<\/dt><dd>systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Peer-reviewed science and assessments<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Type<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Crippa et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>food-system emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Kornhuber et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n11\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Note 11\">11<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>concurrent low yields<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ray et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>yield effects of observed <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Zhao et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2017<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>temperature and crop yields<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Gaupp et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n40\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Note 40\">40<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2020<\/td><td>framework<\/td><td>simultaneous breadbasket failure<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Willett et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n37\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Note 37\">37<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>healthy and sustainable diets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Poore and Nemecek<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n38\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Note 38\">38<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>environmental effects of food<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Springmann et al.<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n39\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Note 39\">39<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>journal article<\/td><td>2018<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>food and planetary boundaries<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPCC Special Report on Climate Change and Land<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2019<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>land, food and emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPCC AR6 Working Group II, food chapter<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n35\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Note 35\">35<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>assessment<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>impacts and adaptation<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Institutional flagships<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>State of Food Security and Nutrition 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO and partners<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>hunger, diets, cost<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Information note on the 2026 Middle East conflict<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>fertiliser and fuel<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>aquatic foods<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of Food and Agriculture 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h26\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.land.land-degradation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Land and wetland degradation\" data-td=\"Long-term decline of the productivity and health of land from erosion, nutrient loss, compaction or salting.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H26\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">land degradation<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>State of Land and Water Resources 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>irrigation<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food Outlook, June 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>food import bill<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agrifood systems emissions brief<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>emissions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 2035<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>OECD and FAO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>ten-year outlook<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Land Outlook<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n42\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Note 42\">42<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNCCD<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>land<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food Systems Summit stocktake<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n41\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Note 41\">41<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>United Nations<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>food-system policy<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Statistics, prices and markets<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Food Price Index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>prices<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cereal Supply and Demand Brief<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>supply and stocks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>USDA<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>stocks and trade<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food Security Update<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>inflation and El Ni\u00f1o<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Commodity Markets Outlook and prices<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n7\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>commodity prices<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Development Indicators<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>structural series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 seasonal-outlook\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A statement of the shifted likelihood of conditions over the coming months compared with normal.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">seasonal outlook<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food Waste Index Report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UNEP<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>food waste<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Export restrictions tracker<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IFPRI<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>trade policy<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Market monitor<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>AMIS<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>market transparency<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 6.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Crises, health, animal disease and standards<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Reference<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Issuer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Used for<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Global Report on Food Crises 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>GNAFC<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>acute food insecurity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mid-year update<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>GNAFC<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>funding and trend<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunger Hotspots<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO and WFP<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>early warning<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Famine classification analyses<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IPC<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>famine<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Foodborne disease burden<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WHO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>food safety<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HPAI situation report 87<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>WOAH<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>supports<\/td><td>animal disease<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Codex Alimentarius<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n19\" aria-label=\"Note 19\">19<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>FAO and WHO<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>standards<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pollinators, pollination and food production<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IPBES<\/td><td>2016<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>pollination<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Economic Outlook April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>IMF<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>context<\/td><td>macro assumptions<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where the evidence agrees<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Hunger and food insecurity have fallen for several years but remain above 2019 levels in number<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Energy and fertiliser costs reach food prices quickly<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Conflict is the main driver of acute food insecurity<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Where it is unsettled<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>How long the 2026 input and shipping disruption lasts and how far input use falls<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n7\" aria-label=\"Note 7\">7<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The share of anthropogenic emissions from food systems: 32% in 2023 (FAO), 34% in 2015 (EDGAR-FOOD) and 21 to 37% (IPCC)<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>The 2024 share of the analysed population in acute food insecurity: 22.7% in SOFI and 22.3% in the JRC summary of the same report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/li><li>Agriculture\u2019s share of freshwater withdrawals: 71.0% in the World Bank series for 2022 and about 72% in the FAO report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NEWS AND PREPRINTS<\/p><p>No news report or preprint binds a finding in this edition. News is used only to date events; preprints used from 2027 will be flagged as not peer-reviewed.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>FAO and WHO (eds.), Codex Alimentarius Commission, portal pages (strategic plan 2026 to 2031 and committee news). Codex Alimentarius, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r19\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 19\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EC) No 178\/2002 laying down the general principles and requirements of food law (General Food Law), Official Journal of the European Communities, 2002, cited from memory. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r31\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 31\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023\/1115 on the making available on the Union market and the export from the Union of certain commodities and products associated with <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> and forest degradation, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; the publication site blocked access, and application dates were not checked. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r29\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 29\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2019\/6 on veterinary medicinal products, Official Journal of the European Union, 2019, cited from memory; the 3 September 2026 date of the antimicrobial import requirements comes from the opened FAO Food Price Index release [2]. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r30\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 30\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: WTO, Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (1994), cited from memory. World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 1994. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r33\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 33\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22000:2018, Food safety management <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>: requirements for any organisation in the food chain. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r32\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 32\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, decision 15\/4 (December 2022), cited from memory. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r34\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 34\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Guizzardi, D. et al., Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, Nature Food 2, 198 to 209, 2021 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Kornhuber, K. et al., Risks of synchronised low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections, Nature Communications, 2023 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r11\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 11\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Clark, M. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate change<\/a> has likely already affected global food production, PLOS ONE 14(5), e0217148, 2019 (open access, full text). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gaupp, F. et al., Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure, Nature Climate Change 10, 54 to 57, 2020, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r40\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 40\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Willett, W. et al., Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems, The Lancet 393, 447 to 492, 2019, cited from memory; the journal site blocked access. Elsevier. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r37\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 37\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Poore, J. and Nemecek, T., Reducing food\u2019s environmental impacts through producers and consumers, Science 360, 987 to 992, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r38\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 38\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Springmann, M. et al., Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits, Nature 562, 519 to 525, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r39\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 39\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>IPCC (ed.), Climate Change and Land: Special Report on climate change, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h26\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.land.desertification\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Land and wetland degradation\" data-td=\"Degradation of dryland into desert-like conditions through climate change and unsustainable land use.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H26\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">desertification<\/a>, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, Summary for Policymakers (updated January 2020). IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bezner Kerr, R. et al., Food, fibre, and other ecosystem products, in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 5. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r35\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 35\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing land degradation across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of the World\u2019s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and FAO (eds.), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 2035 (June 2026); only the catalogue record was seen and no figure is used. OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCCD (ed.), Global Land Outlook, second edition. United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Bonn. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r42\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 42\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Food Systems Summit +4 stocktake (2025), cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r41\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 41\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 (data as of 16 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, and monthly commodity price data (landing page opened, release of 3 November 2026; the outlook report itself was not opened). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r7\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 7\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, full report (fertiliser and food price projections); only the landing page [7] was opened. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP and WRAP (eds.), Food Waste Index Report 2024; the headline of 1.05 billion tonnes wasted in 2022 was taken from search-result summaries and is not used as a figure in any finding. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFPRI (ed.), Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker; the page returned no content. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: AMIS (ed.), Market Monitor, October 2026; the page blocked access. Agricultural Market Information System, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO, WFP and GNAFC (eds.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (full report, 24 April 2026); the report file could not be retrieved, and its totals are taken from the opened summary [4] and from SOFI [1]. Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute food insecurity, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPC (ed.), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analyses for the Gaza Strip, the Sudan and Somalia; the site blocked automated access, and the findings are read from the opened GRFC summary and Hunger Hotspots page [4] [18]. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>WOAH (ed.), High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) Situation Report 87 (period covered September 2026). World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPBES (ed.), The assessment report on pollinators, pollination and food production, 2016, cited from memory. IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026; access was denied, and its growth assumptions are cited only as reported in SOFI [1]. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c6-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-part-agenda\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\">Global Food 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 7<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">The 2027 agenda<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Eight bounded questions open the 2027 food agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 food edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>5 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>6 tables<\/span><span>4 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.1<\/span><span>Questions for the operational series<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How would a harvest shortfall under a strong El Ni\u00f1o, with high fertiliser and freight costs, travel through trade, prices and health at once?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS03-HRV-01 \u00b7 harvest shortfall under high input costs; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How far did fertiliser use and farm margins fall after the first half of 2026, and where?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS03-INP-02 \u00b7 fertiliser and fuel dependence; first output: input-use and margin table by region.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Where do diet cost, income and food price shocks combine to put healthy diets out of reach?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS03-DIE-03 \u00b7 diet affordability and nutrition; first output: affordability overlay for twelve countries.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which cereal and oilseed export routes lack workable alternatives when one route is constrained?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS03-ROU-04 \u00b7 trade routes and chokepoints; first output: route dependence map.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which warnings of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.famine\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Extreme food deprivation with widespread starvation, acute malnutrition and rising deaths in a population.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">famine<\/a> risk led to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 anticipatory-action\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Actions taken ahead of a predicted hazard, on the basis of a forecast or risk analysis, to prevent or reduce its humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">anticipatory action<\/a>, and which did not?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">INI-GS03-EWN-05 \u00b7 <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> and anticipatory action; first output: warning-to-action register.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How much food is lost or wasted, on one current basis, and where?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: basis note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">How do heat, rainfall and animal disease change supply together?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">F-08<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Which food-system capabilities have been tested in real shortfalls, and which are only planned?<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">Food capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.2<\/span><span>Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 food portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Objects proposed for the first operational quarter<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Object<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Question<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS03-HRV-01<\/span><\/td><td>Harvest shortfall under high input costs<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-01<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS03-INP-02<\/span><\/td><td>Fertiliser and fuel dependence<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-02<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS03-DIE-03<\/span><\/td><td>Diet affordability and nutrition<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-03<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS03-ROU-04<\/span><\/td><td>Trade routes and chokepoints<\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-04<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">INI-GS03-EWN-05<\/span><\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Early warning<\/a> and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 anticipatory-action\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Actions taken ahead of a predicted hazard, on the basis of a forecast or risk analysis, to prevent or reduce its humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">anticipatory action<\/a><\/td><td>Initiative<\/td><td>F-05<\/td><td>PROPOSED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">MSN-GS03-2027-01<\/span><\/td><td>Harvest shortfall Universe mission<\/td><td>Mission<\/td><td>F-01<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.3<\/span><span>The pathway<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The food edition reads national food chapters, regional crop, trade and nutrition evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed. This page states what exists today and what comes next.<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">National food chapters<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">food system of each national edition<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 national baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Crop, trade and nutrition evidence<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">shared trade routes, crop regions and food-crisis contexts<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 regional Baseline Editions<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Food sector model<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">the global food and agrifood system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">v0 SPECIFIED \u00b7 v1 with federation evidence<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Global and strategic links<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">GLB Global Systems \u00b7 GS-01 Water \u00b7 GS-02 Energy \u00b7 GS-04 Health and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 one-health\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"An integrated approach that recognises the health of people, animals, plants and ecosystems as interdependent and manages risks across them together.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">One Health<\/a><\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">PLANNED \u00b7 sector baselines<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Universe<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">annual proving environment<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">CANDIDATE MISSION \u00b7 mandate in 2027<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Global Food Report<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">this series<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">BASELINE DRAFT \u00b7 2027 annual edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">07<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-t\">Evidence and correction<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">one graph, many projections<\/p><p class=\"nrp-rows-m\">OPEN \u00b7 first correction cycle in 2027<\/p><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.4<\/span><span>Universe 2027: evidence pack for the food candidate mission<\/span><\/h2><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Mandate<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Core Build \u00b7 1 month<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Action \u00b7 1 week<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Evidence seal<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Portfolio correction<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">06<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">Next mandate<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Universe 2027: evidence pack for the food candidate mission<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Record<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Timing<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>F1<\/td><td>Annual mandate record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>after the Q2 2027 alignment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F2<\/td><td>Core Build record<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>one month before the exercise<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F3<\/td><td>Exercise evidence<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>during the Action week<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F4<\/td><td>Decision packets<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>exercise state only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F5<\/td><td>Proof receipts<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>scoped to each recorded check<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F6<\/td><td>After-action report<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>within one quarter<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F7<\/td><td>Upgrade docket<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>routed to the Portfolio<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F8<\/td><td>Portfolio renewal<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>2027 global annual edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>F9<\/td><td>Public synthesis<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><td>public-safe extracts only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Mission<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>ID<\/dt><dd>MSN-GS03-2027-01 \u00b7 Harvest shortfall Universe mission<\/dd><dt>Role spine<\/dt><dd>Leadership sponsor \u00b7 Institutional anchor \u00b7 Mission lead: drawn from national pathways<\/dd><dt>Receiving actors<\/dt><dd>to be identified with the mandate<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Simulation success is not deployment approval; demonstration is not certification; finance readiness is not financing secured.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.5<\/span><span>Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Where the baseline\u2019s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Handoffs and routing<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Finding<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Routed to<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Purpose<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>FOO-001 \u00b7 hunger<\/td><td>public record<\/td><td>reference for the 2027 series<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HLT-004 \u00b7 diet cost<\/td><td>INI-GS03-DIE-03<\/td><td>diet affordability and nutrition<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GOV-005 \u00b7 acute crises<\/td><td>INI-GS03-EWN-05<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 early-warning\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Timely, actionable information about an impending hazard that lets people and institutions act to reduce harm before it occurs.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">early warning<\/a> and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 anticipatory-action\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"Actions taken ahead of a predicted hazard, on the basis of a forecast or risk analysis, to prevent or reduce its humanitarian impacts before they fully unfold.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">anticipatory action<\/a><\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>TRD-006 \u00b7 inputs<\/td><td>INI-GS03-INP-02<\/td><td>fertiliser and fuel dependence<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FIN-007 \u00b7 prices<\/td><td>public record<\/td><td>monthly price watch<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FOO-008 \u00b7 supply<\/td><td>INI-GS03-ROU-04<\/td><td>trade routes and chokepoints<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CLI-009 \u00b7 El Ni\u00f1o<\/td><td>INI-GS03-HRV-01 \u00b7 key F review<\/td><td>harvest shortfall under high input costs<\/td><td>PUBLIC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SYS-012 \u00b7 compound pathway<\/td><td>MSN-GS03-2027-01<\/td><td>Universe candidate<\/td><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Routing rules by publication class<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Class<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Where it goes<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Who can see it<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>PUBLIC<\/td><td>the published edition and its evidence bundle<\/td><td>anyone<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONSORTIUM<\/td><td>governed rooms of the federation<\/td><td>consortium members under agreement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>CONTROLLED<\/td><td>need-to-know channels<\/td><td>named competent actors only<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">CODES ARE NOT JOINS<\/p><p>Series codes in this edition (GS-03 and its relatives) are Reports codes. Codes in other indices can look alike. This edition makes no join on a code alone: a join needs a registry record that names both subjects.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Handoffs carry findings to Nexus programme objects and steward reviews. States and organisations receive public editions as published; nothing here instructs them.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">7.6<\/span><span>Feeds and signal register<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Feeds watched from 2027<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Feed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Producer<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Latency<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Feeds into<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Food Price Index<\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>FIN-007<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cereal Supply and Demand Brief<\/td><td>FAO<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>FOO-008<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates<\/td><td>US Department of Agriculture<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>FOO-008<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food Security Update<\/td><td>World Bank<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>CLI-009<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Global Report on Food Crises and mid-year update<\/td><td>GNAFC<\/td><td>annual and mid-year<\/td><td>GOV-005<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update<\/td><td>WMO<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>CLI-009<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HPAI situation reports<\/td><td>WOAH<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>HLT-011<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Escalation routes<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">none \u00b7 keep monitoring<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">research question<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">project<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">risk object<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">annual publication<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">signal report<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 7.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Signals at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">ID<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Signal<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Corroboration<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Route<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SIG-GS03-001<\/td><td>Black Sea export routes constrained in 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>TRD \u00b7 FOO<\/td><td>research question F-04<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-GS03-002<\/td><td>Gulf fertiliser trade disrupted from March 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>CORROBORATED<\/td><td>ENE \u00b7 FOO<\/td><td>initiative F-02<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SIG-GS03-003<\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o forecast into early 2027<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>CLI \u00b7 FOO<\/td><td>research question F-01<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>A signal is not a warning. Signal records never substitute for official alerting or early-warning authorities, and they bypass no publication control.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c7-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-part-systems-in-depth\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\">Global Food 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Chapter 8<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Systems in depth<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>8 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>5 tables<\/span><span>18 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.1<\/span><span>Food and water<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Agriculture is the largest user of freshwater. Irrigated land is more productive than rainfed land, and rainfall shortfalls reach supply quickly, as the 2026 monsoon showed in India.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">72<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of global freshwater withdrawals are for agriculture<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">22.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of cropland is equipped for irrigation and gives 48% of crop value<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">171<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million ha<\/span><p>of irrigated cropland under high or very high water stress<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Irrigation<\/td><td>irrigated land yields 76% more than rainfed land on average<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Withdrawals<\/td><td>agriculture was 71.0% of freshwater withdrawals in 2022 in the World Bank series and about 72% in the FAO report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Monsoon and supply<\/td><td>reduced and poorly distributed 2026 monsoon rains tightened irrigation supplies in southern India<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Runoff and quality<\/td><td>nutrient and pesticide loads are not consolidated here<\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>WAT \u2192 FOO irrigation and rainfall<\/li><li>FOO \u2192 WAT withdrawals and runoff<\/li><li>ENE \u2192 FOO pumping and cold chain<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>nutrient and pesticide loads by region<\/li><li>irrigation exposure to multi-year dry spells<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Monsoon and El Ni\u00f1o rainfall; reservoir and groundwater levels in the main irrigated regions; irrigation supply in the next dry season.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes physical couplings. It assesses no farmer, utility or government.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.2<\/span><span>Food and energy<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Food depends on energy for fertiliser, fuel, freight, processing and cold chains. The 2026 Gulf disruption showed that the link runs through nitrogen fertiliser and freight as well as fuel.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">30<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>at most, of internationally traded fertilisers normally transit Hormuz<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">30 to 35<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of global urea exports come from the Gulf<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">3 to 4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million tonnes<\/span><p>of fertiliser trade stalled each month, March 2026 estimate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Fertiliser inputs<\/td><td>Middle East granular urea rose nearly 20% in early March 2026; no international strategic reserves exist<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fuel and freight<\/td><td>uncertainty over Hormuz shipping kept fuel, fertiliser and freight cost concerns elevated in September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Biofuel feedstocks<\/td><td>strong biofuel demand supported soy oil and maize prices<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fertiliser use<\/td><td>about 136 kilograms per hectare of arable land in 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>ENE \u2192 FOO fertiliser and fuel<\/li><li>MIN \u2192 FOO sulphur and phosphate<\/li><li>TRD \u2192 ENE \u2192 FOO price transmission<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>fertiliser prices and use after mid-2026<\/li><li>cold-chain power reliability<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Fertiliser prices against a year earlier; shipping through Hormuz; the next planting season in import-dependent regions.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes physical couplings. It makes no statement on any country\u2019s agricultural or energy policy.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.3<\/span><span>Food and health<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Diets drive health. The cost of a healthy diet, acute crises, contaminated food and animal disease all reach people through food.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">2.69<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>unable to afford a healthy diet, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">866<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>foodborne illnesses, 2021<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">35.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million<\/span><p>children acutely malnourished in 23 nutrition-crisis countries and territories, 2025<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Diet cost<\/td><td>the cost of a healthy diet rose to 4.28 PPP dollars in 2025; animal source foods and vegetables carry much of it<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Child nutrition<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h81\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.nutrition.chronic-undernutrition\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency\" data-td=\"Long-term poor nutrition and repeated infection in early childhood that stunt growth and brain development, reducing lifelong health, learning and earnings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H81\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">stunting<\/a> 23.2% (150.2 million) in 2024; <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h81\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.nutrition.acute-malnutrition-surge\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency\" data-td=\"A rapid rise in dangerous weight loss among young children and other vulnerable people during food crises, disease outbreaks or conflict, sharply raising the risk of death.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H81\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">wasting<\/a> 6.6%; adult obesity 16.2%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food safety<\/td><td>1.52 million deaths in 2021; children under 5 carry 29% of the burden<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Animal disease<\/td><td>7,831 avian influenza outbreaks in wild birds between October 2025 and September 2026 in 61 countries and territories; 20 poultry outbreaks in September 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n25\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n25\" aria-label=\"Note 25\">25<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FOO \u2192 HLT diets and nutrition<\/li><li>HLT \u2192 FOO labour and zoonoses<\/li><li>GOV \u2192 FOO \u2192 HLT acute crises<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>nutrition outcomes after 2024<\/li><li>food safety incidents on a common basis<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>The next SOFI report; avian influenza reports; nutrition crises in the contexts of highest concern.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Health-system planning rests with national authorities and WHO. No personal health data are used or shown in Reports.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.4<\/span><span>Food and nature<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Food production is the largest direct pressure on land and a major source of emissions. Nature is also the base that supplies food: fish stocks, soils and pollinators.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Gt CO2eq<\/span><p>agrifood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> emissions, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">62.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>of marine fish stocks within sustainable levels, 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">1.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">billion<\/span><p>people live in areas with degradation-induced yield losses<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n22\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Emissions<\/td><td>livestock 4.3 Gt and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h25\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.forest.deforestation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Forest and woodland stress\" data-td=\"Clearing of forest for other land uses, losing habitat, carbon storage and watershed protection.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H25\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">deforestation<\/a> 2.8 Gt CO2eq in 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fisheries<\/td><td>world production of aquatic animals was 195 million tonnes in 2024; aquaculture was 53% of it<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Land<\/td><td>agricultural land was 36.9% of land area in 2023<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup>; degradation-induced yield losses affect 1.7 billion people<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n22\" aria-label=\"Note 22\">22<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate and yields<\/td><td>observed <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">climate change<\/a> has likely cut calories from ten major crops by about 1%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n16\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup>; each degree of warming lowers yields of wheat, rice, maize and soybean<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n17\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n16\" aria-label=\"Note 16\">16<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n17\" aria-label=\"Note 17\">17<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FOO \u2192 BIO land conversion and overfishing<\/li><li>BIO \u2192 FOO pollination, soils and stocks<\/li><li>FOO \u2192 CLI emissions<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>pollination and soil contributions to yields<\/li><li>ecosystem effects of fertiliser and pesticide use<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Application of deforestation rules; fish stock assessments; land restoration commitments.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Biodiversity is not reduced to a single number. Where valuation is used later, it will never be presented as the whole value.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">8.5<\/span><span>Food security, trade and extremes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Food security now depends on three channels the 2025 and 2026 evidence shows: trade routes, extreme weather and the capacity to respond to crises.<\/p><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">509.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">million tonnes<\/span><p>cereal trade forecast for 2026\/27, September estimate<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">\u2248100<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">%<\/span><p>probability that El Ni\u00f1o persists through early 2027, as forecast<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">15<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">of 33<\/span><p>countries and territories with comparable data deteriorated in mid-year data<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table 8.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">State at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Component<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Evidence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Trade routes<\/td><td>Black Sea export routes flagged as a risk to 2026\/27 trade<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Extremes<\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o forecast into early 2027; the effect on the following lean season is not bound at close<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Conflict and funding<\/td><td>about 327,000 people expected in Catastrophe in 2026, down from 1.4 million in 2025; food aid could fall about 45%<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prices<\/td><td>the FAO Food Price Index was 133.3 points in August 2026, 2.5% above a year earlier<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Couplings<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>TRD \u2192 FOO routes<\/li><li>CLI \u2192 FOO extremes<\/li><li>GOV \u2192 FOO conflict and funding<\/li><\/ul><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence to bind in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>yield effects of the 2026 El Ni\u00f1o<\/li><li>alternative route capacity<\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">WHAT TO WATCH<\/p><p>Black Sea and Gulf shipping; El Ni\u00f1o rainfall and the lean season; humanitarian funding levels.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Related editions<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GLB Global Systems<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-01 Water<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-02 Energy<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-04 Health and One Health<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-06 Development and Humanitarian<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems<\/li><\/ul><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>This chapter describes physical and market couplings. It assesses no state, producer or trader and makes no forecast of prices.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of the World\u2019s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>WOAH (ed.), High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) Situation Report 87 (period covered September 2026). World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r25\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 25\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h26\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.land.land-degradation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Land and wetland degradation\" data-td=\"Long-term decline of the productivity and health of land from erosion, nutrient loss, compaction or salting.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H26\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">land degradation<\/a> across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r22\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 22\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Clark, M. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate change<\/a> has likely already affected global food production, PLOS ONE 14(5), e0217148, 2019 (open access, full text). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r16\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 16\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r17\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 17\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-c8-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-part-methodology\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\">Global Food 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex A<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Methodology<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>13 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>13 tables<\/span><span>17 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.1<\/span><span>Methods<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Methods<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">No.<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Derivation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Calculation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Result<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>(1)<\/td><td>Africa\u2019s share of people facing hunger, 2025<\/td><td>309 \u00f7 645<\/td><td>\u224848%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(2)<\/td><td>Severe share of moderate or severe <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a>, 2025<\/td><td>9.5 \u00f7 25.8<\/td><td>\u224837%<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(3)<\/td><td>Implied 2025 world cereal output, from the 2026 forecast and the stated fall of 61.1 million tonnes<\/td><td>2,980 + 61.1<\/td><td>\u22483,041 million tonnes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>(4)<\/td><td>Rise in the cost of a healthy diet, 2017 to 2025<\/td><td>4.28 \u00f7 2.94<\/td><td>\u22481.46 times<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab2\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.2<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Strength<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>STRONG<\/td><td>a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system\u2019s service or output within one season, in more than one region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>MODERATE<\/td><td>an effect is documented but buffered or slower<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEAK<\/td><td>an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Status grammar<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Label<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Rule<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>value as issued by its source, with year<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus analytical value with stated method<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>conditional on stated assumptions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.2<\/span><span>Model card, Food Sector Model v0<\/span><\/h2><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model ID<\/dt><dd>MDL-GS03-FOOD \u00b7 v0.1<\/dd><dt>Purpose<\/dt><dd>represent the global food and agrifood system and its couplings to water, energy, health and biodiversity<\/dd><dt>Family<\/dt><dd>graph-based system of <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a><\/dd><dt>Inputs<\/dt><dd>the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG \u00b7 MODERATE \u00b7 WEAK) from assessments and analogue events<\/dd><dt>Validation<\/dt><dd>none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027<\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements<\/dd><dt>Domain of validity<\/dt><dd>global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>strength table and sources published in this edition<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">couplings<\/span><p>typed in v0<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strong<\/span><p>documented within one season<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">moderate<\/span><p>documented, buffered<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">weak<\/span><p>plausible, undocumented<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>framing the 2027 agenda; choosing which couplings to measure first; explaining the coupled reading of hunger, prices, inputs and trade.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOT SUITABLE FOR<\/p><p>quantitative loss estimates, country comparisons or rankings, operational decisions, or any claim about a specific asset.<\/p><\/aside><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">VERSIONING<\/p><p>Models are immutable by version. A change to any coupling, rule or weight produces v0.2 with its own card and correction note.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.3<\/span><span>The baseline evidence cut<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.<\/p><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Cut ID<\/dt><dd>DC-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-B0<\/dd><dt>Type<\/dt><dd>baseline documentary cut<\/dd><dt>Resolution policy<\/dt><dd>pinned \u00b7 as of 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Sources pinned<\/dt><dd>49 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references<\/dd><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method<\/dd><dt>Digest<\/dt><dd>computed at <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h5\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 atmo.thermal.hard-freeze\" data-tk=\"Atmosphere and weather \u00b7 Thermal extremes\" data-td=\"Air temperature falling well below freezing for hours, killing crops, bursting pipes and stopping water flow.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H5\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/atmo\/\" data-txl=\"Atmosphere and weather\">freeze<\/a> and recorded in the publication record<\/dd><dt>Supersedes<\/dt><dd>nothing, first cut of the series<\/dd><dt>Superseded by<\/dt><dd>the 2027 food annual cut<\/dd><\/dl><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Lineage<\/h3><ol class=\"nrp-rows\"><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">01<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">source edition<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">02<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">pinned citation<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">03<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">finding<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">04<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">page<\/p><\/li><li><span class=\"nrp-rows-i\">05<\/span><p class=\"nrp-rows-x\">publication record<\/p><\/li><\/ol><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">From the baseline cut to the federation cut<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Element<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline 2026<\/th><th scope=\"col\">2027 global annual<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Sources<\/td><td>cited global publications, pinned by edition<\/td><td>national, regional and sector cuts through one graph<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Analysis<\/td><td>stated methods and editorial estimates<\/td><td>typed analysis specifications<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Models<\/td><td>Food Sector Model v0 specification<\/td><td>model runs with receipts<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Findings<\/td><td>twelve baseline findings<\/td><td>findings re-bound to federation evidence<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Review<\/td><td>five passes scheduled<\/td><td>five passes on the exact digest<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.4<\/span><span>Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Evidence age and coverage<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Observed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Released<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Next release<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Hunger and <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Jul 2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next SOFI<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Acute food insecurity<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>Apr 2026; mid-year Sep 2026<\/td><td>annual and mid-year<\/td><td>next GRFC<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food prices<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cereal supply and stocks<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fertiliser and fuel trade<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Mar 2026<\/td><td>one-off<\/td><td>not bound after March<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>El Ni\u00f1o outlook<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Aug 2026<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next WMO update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Foodborne disease burden<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>next WHO estimate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Fisheries and aquaculture<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>Jun 2026<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><td>2028<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agrifood emissions<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td>Oct 2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>next FAOSTAT update<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Avian influenza<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>Oct 2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Coverage by system at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">System<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Thinnest dimension<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Hunger and diets<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>subnational detail<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Acute food crises<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>consistent country coverage<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Prices and stocks<\/td><td>GOOD<\/td><td>local and retail prices<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Inputs and fertiliser<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>prices and use after mid-2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Climate and yields<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>El Ni\u00f1o yield effects by region<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food safety<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>incident data on a common basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Loss and waste<\/td><td>THIN<\/td><td>a current common global basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Resilience<\/td><td>PARTIAL<\/td><td>tested capabilities beyond stocks and aid<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source that would fill it<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Blocker<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Fertiliser prices and farm input use after the first half of 2026<\/td><td>World Bank Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n46\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r46\" aria-label=\"Note 46\">46<\/a><\/sup>; FAO and national statistics<\/td><td>only the landing page of the outlook was opened; the FAO note<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup> covers March 2026 only<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Share of global urea and ammonia trade that resumed after March 2026<\/td><td>FAO and trade analysts<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>not published in the documents opened; no estimate made<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Crop yield effects of the 2026 El Ni\u00f1o, by region<\/td><td>national forecasts; FAO Crop Prospects; WMO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the season is under way and outcomes are not yet reported<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food loss and waste on a current common basis<\/td><td>UNEP Food Waste Index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n26\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Note 26\">26<\/a><\/sup>; FAO Food Loss Index<\/td><td>the UNEP report was not opened; only the IPCC range of 25 to 30% of food produced<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n20\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r20\" aria-label=\"Note 20\">20<\/a><\/sup> is used, and it is older<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Ten-year baseline for production, prices and emissions<\/td><td>OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 2035<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n27\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Note 27\">27<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the report was not opened; no figure used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Full Global Report on Food Crises 2026 tables<\/td><td>GRFC 2026 full report<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n28\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the report file was not retrievable; totals come from the summary and from SOFI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h57\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 soc.humanitarian.famine\" data-tk=\"Society, conflict and economy \u00b7 Humanitarian crises\" data-td=\"Extreme food deprivation with widespread starvation, acute malnutrition and rising deaths in a population.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H57\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/soc\/\" data-txl=\"Society, conflict and economy\">Famine<\/a> classification detail for Gaza, the Sudan and Somalia<\/td><td>IPC analyses<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n44\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r44\" aria-label=\"Note 44\">44<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the IPC site blocked automated access; the summary in Hunger Hotspots is used<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n18\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r18\" aria-label=\"Note 18\">18<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Export restrictions on food and fertiliser in 2026<\/td><td>IFPRI tracker<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n43\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r43\" aria-label=\"Note 43\">43<\/a><\/sup>; AMIS Market Monitor<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n45\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r45\" aria-label=\"Note 45\">45<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>the tracker page returned no content and the monitor page was blocked<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pollination and soil contributions to yields, global series<\/td><td>IPBES<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n36\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r36\" aria-label=\"Note 36\">36<\/a><\/sup>; FAO soil assessments<\/td><td>not opened; no figure used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Pesticide, antimicrobial and nutrient pollution loads, by region<\/td><td>FAO, UNEP, national agencies<\/td><td>no consolidated global series found at evidence close<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cold-chain and storage capacity in importing regions<\/td><td>FAO; national ministries<\/td><td>not published on a common basis<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Retail and local food prices for the countries in acute crisis<\/td><td>FAO FPMA tool; national statistics offices<\/td><td>not retrieved; only international prices are used<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IMF growth assumptions behind the SOFI 2030 scenarios<\/td><td>IMF World Economic Outlook, April 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n47\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r47\" aria-label=\"Note 47\">47<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>access to the publication was denied; the assumptions are quoted only as reported in SOFI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs beyond stocks and humanitarian response<\/td><td>ministries, regulators, producers<\/td><td>not reviewed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.5<\/span><span>Evidence cards, two anchor sources<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued jointly by FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (21 July 2026) from national surveys, price data and models. Annual. Role: binds FOO-001, FOO-002, FOO-003 and HLT-004.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-GS03-001<\/h3><p>SOFI 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Issued by FAO (release of 4 September 2026) from international export quotations. Monthly. Role: binds FIN-007. Revised monthly; earlier months are restated.<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">EVD-GS03-002<\/h3><p>FAO Food Price Index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/p><\/article><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Quality dimensions at baseline<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Dimension<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-GS03-001<\/th><th scope=\"col\">EVD-GS03-002<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Completeness<\/td><td>all countries; modelled where surveys are missing<\/td><td>international export prices only; no retail prices<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Timeliness<\/td><td>about 7 months after the year<\/td><td>about 1 month after the month<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Revision<\/td><td>estimates revised with each edition<\/td><td>previous months revised each release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Method transparency<\/td><td>methods and annexes published<\/td><td>basket and weights described by the issuer<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>External validation<\/td><td>agency review and national consultation<\/td><td>compared with national quotations by the issuer<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Evidence cards to follow in 2027<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>FAO FPMA tool: national retail prices for countries in crisis<\/li><li>GRFC<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n28\" aria-label=\"Note 28\">28<\/a><\/sup>: country tables behind the summary<\/li><li>FAO and trade analysts<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup>: fertiliser volumes after March 2026<\/li><li>USDA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup>: regional production tables for the 2026 El Ni\u00f1o season<\/li><\/ul><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.6<\/span><span>Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab9\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.9<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Publication acceptance record<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Group<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Area<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Items<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pass<\/th><th scope=\"col\">N\/A<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Pending<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>D1<\/td><td>Identity and scope<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D2<\/td><td>Source and data<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>1<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D3<\/td><td>Analysis and models<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>3<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D4<\/td><td>Findings and claims<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>1<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D5<\/td><td>Figures, tables, maps<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>6<\/td><td>2<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D6<\/td><td>Editorial and citations<\/td><td>10<\/td><td>8<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>2<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D7<\/td><td>Review and approval<\/td><td>13<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>13<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D8<\/td><td>Artefact and design<\/td><td>12<\/td><td>7<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>5<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>D9<\/td><td>Registry and release<\/td><td>9<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>0<\/td><td>9<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication gate<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Conditions met<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close<\/dd><dt>Blocking problems<\/dt><dd>none recorded<\/dd><dt>Open conditions<\/dt><dd>reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Not applicable at baseline<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Model runs<\/dt><dd>first runs in Q1 2027<\/dd><dt>Maps<\/dt><dd>plates in Q2 2027<\/dd><dt>Waivers<\/dt><dd>none<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Dispositions are recorded item by item in the machine-readable checklist. A FAIL on any item blocks release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.7<\/span><span>Status words<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab10\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">The status every value carries<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it means<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"positive\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Observed<\/span><\/td><td>Measured directly and published by the source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td>Published statistics of an official or institutional source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Declared<\/span><\/td><td>Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Estimated<\/span><\/td><td>A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Modelled<\/span><\/td><td>Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Inferred<\/span><\/td><td>Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Forecast<\/span><\/td><td>A projection by the cited source.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Simulated<\/span><\/td><td>A simulation result under stated assumptions.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td>A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"neutral\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Expert input<\/span><\/td><td>Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Candidate<\/span><\/td><td>Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s8\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s8-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s8-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.8<\/span><span>How the edition is made, released and corrected<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nx-p\">Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a> as change proposals and feed the next cut.<\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">01 Evidence arrives from the pillars<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site&#8217;s.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">02 The cut is sealed<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">03 The edition is assembled<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">04 The keys turn<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">05 The gate opens<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">06 Signed and deposited<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">07 Published on its desk&#8217;s site<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Only then does the edition show as published on its desk&#8217;s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Step\">08 Corrections go to Standards<\/td><td data-label=\"What happens\">Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.<\/td><td data-label=\"Source\"><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-2\">A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/governance\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Reports governance at GCRI Canada<\/a> (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).<\/p><p class=\"nrp-note\">Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.<\/p><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s9\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s9-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s9-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.9<\/span><span>Glossary and abbreviations<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab11\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.11<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Series terms<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Meaning<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Baseline Edition<\/td><td>the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WEFH+B<\/td><td>food, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/governance-in-operation\/national-nexus\" data-tc=\"National Nexus\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The national model: the NNC, the NLC and the NWG as its three participation pillars, with the National Desk, Model and Portfolio and the NSC as the standards function of the NNC (OR-13)\">national nexus<\/a> core<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Coupling<\/td><td>a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another<\/td><\/tr><tr><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 protection-gap\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"The difference between total economic losses from hazards and the share covered by insurance or other pre-arranged protection, leaving households, firms and governments to absorb the rest.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tg=\"https:\/\/globalriskalliance.com\/glossary\/protection-gap\/\" data-tgl=\"Global Risks Alliance glossary\">Protection gap<\/a><\/td><td>the share of losses not covered by insurance<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability ladder<\/td><td>LISTED \u2192 EXISTS \u2192 ADEQUATE \u2192 TESTED \u2192 DEMONSTRATED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>EQL<\/td><td>evidence-quality level, 1\u20135<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence cut<\/td><td>a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>NNC \u00b7 NLC \u00b7 NWG<\/td><td>National Nexus Consortium \u00b7 National Leadership Council \u00b7 National Working Groups<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab12\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.12<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Abbreviations used in this edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Abbreviation<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Expansion<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>CoHD<\/td><td>cost of a healthy diet<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO<\/td><td>Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FFPI<\/td><td>FAO Food Price Index<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GNAFC<\/td><td>Global Network Against Food Crises<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GRFC<\/td><td>Global Report on Food Crises<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>HPAI<\/td><td>high pathogenicity avian influenza<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>IPC<\/td><td>Integrated Food Security Phase Classification<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Mt<\/td><td>million tonnes<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>PoU<\/td><td>prevalence of undernourishment<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>PPP<\/td><td>purchasing power parity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>SOFI<\/td><td>The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WOAH<\/td><td>World Organisation for Animal Health<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s10\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s10-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-s10-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">A.10<\/span><span>Technical annex<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-tab13\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table A.13<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Technical annex<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Item<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Annex<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Contents<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Status<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>A.1<\/td><td>Indicator definitions<\/td><td>the global indicator set, with units and sources<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.2<\/td><td>Coupling strengths<\/td><td>the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.3<\/td><td>Scenario specification<\/td><td>SCN-GS03-HRV-01 assumptions and signposts<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.4<\/td><td>Capability placements<\/td><td>rung evidence for fifteen functions<\/td><td>IN THIS EDITION<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.5<\/td><td>Model diagnostics<\/td><td>first runs and validation<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.6<\/td><td>Sensitivity analyses<\/td><td>influence of coupling strengths<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.7<\/td><td>Trade-route notes<\/td><td>cards for the major crop regions and shared trade routes<\/td><td>WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>A.8<\/td><td>Review statements<\/td><td>pass-by-pass review record<\/td><td>AT RELEASE<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">A.1 \u00b7 indicator definition: prevalence of undernourishment<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Construct<\/dt><dd>share and number of people whose habitual food consumption is insufficient to provide the dietary energy for an active, healthy life<\/dd><dt>Unit<\/dt><dd>share and number of people<\/dd><dt>Method<\/dt><dd>FAO model combining national food supply, distribution and requirements<\/dd><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>SOFI 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Uncertainty<\/dt><dd>world range 608 to 696 million people in 2025<\/dd><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>measures energy intake only; does not capture diet quality, access or short shocks<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Annexes carry the same evidence, review and correction rules as the chapters and are versioned with the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, full report (fertiliser and food price projections); only the landing page [7] was opened. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r46\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 46\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP and WRAP (eds.), Food Waste Index Report 2024; the headline of 1.05 billion tonnes wasted in 2022 was taken from search-result summaries and is not used as a figure in any finding. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r26\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 26\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>IPCC (ed.), <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate Change<\/a> and Land: Special Report on climate change, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h26\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.land.desertification\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Land and wetland degradation\" data-td=\"Degradation of dryland into desert-like conditions through climate change and unsustainable land use.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H26\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">desertification<\/a>, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h26\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.land.land-degradation\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Land and wetland degradation\" data-td=\"Long-term decline of the productivity and health of land from erosion, nutrient loss, compaction or salting.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H26\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">land degradation<\/a>, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, Summary for Policymakers (updated January 2020). IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r20\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 20\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and FAO (eds.), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 2035 (June 2026); only the catalogue record was seen and no figure is used. OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r27\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 27\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO, WFP and GNAFC (eds.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (full report, 24 April 2026); the report file could not be retrieved, and its totals are taken from the opened summary [4] and from SOFI [1]. Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r28\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 28\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPC (ed.), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analyses for the Gaza Strip, the Sudan and Somalia; the site blocked automated access, and the findings are read from the opened GRFC summary and Hunger Hotspots page [4] [18]. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r44\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 44\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a>, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r18\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 18\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFPRI (ed.), Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker; the page returned no content. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r43\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 43\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: AMIS (ed.), Market Monitor, October 2026; the page blocked access. Agricultural Market Information System, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r45\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 45\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPBES (ed.), The assessment report on pollinators, pollination and food production, 2016, cited from memory. IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r36\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 36\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026; access was denied, and its growth assumptions are cited only as reported in SOFI [1]. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r47\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 47\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-ca-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-part-data\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\">Global Food 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex B<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">Data appendix<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>10 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>8 tables<\/span><span>18 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.1<\/span><span>The indicator set<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global baseline indicator set<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Indicator<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Value<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Unit<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Year<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Population facing hunger<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">7.8<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People facing hunger, point estimate<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">645<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>People facing hunger, range<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">608 to 696<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Moderately or severely food insecure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">25.8<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Severely food insecure<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">778.6<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Unable to afford a healthy diet<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2.69<\/span><\/td><td>billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Cost of a healthy diet<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">4.28<\/span><\/td><td>PPP dollars<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Child <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h81\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 health.nutrition.chronic-undernutrition\" data-tk=\"Health and biosecurity \u00b7 Malnutrition and micronutrient deficiency\" data-td=\"Long-term poor nutrition and repeated infection in early childhood that stunt growth and brain development, reducing lifelong health, learning and earnings.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H81\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/health\/\" data-txl=\"Health and biosecurity\">stunting<\/a><\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">23.2<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Hunger in 2030, SOFI scenarios<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">510 to 520<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2030<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a>, 47 countries and territories<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">266<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n4\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Acute food insecurity share in 2024, SOFI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">22.7<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Acute food insecurity share in 2024, JRC summary<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">22.3<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Children acutely malnourished in nutrition crises<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">35.5<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO Food Price Index, August 2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">133.3<\/span><\/td><td>points<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n48\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO wheat prices, change on a year earlier, August 2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">15.0<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n48\" aria-label=\"Note 48\">48<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World cereal production, FAO forecast<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2,980<\/span><\/td><td>million tonnes<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n49\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World wheat production, FAO forecast<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">810.7<\/span><\/td><td>million tonnes<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World cereal ending stocks 2026\/27, FAO forecast<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">947.2<\/span><\/td><td>million tonnes<\/td><td>2026\/27<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World cereal trade 2026\/27, FAO forecast<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">509.3<\/span><\/td><td>million tonnes<\/td><td>2026\/27<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"caution\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Scenario<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World food import bill<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">2,218.4<\/span><\/td><td>USD billion<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n24\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r24\" aria-label=\"Note 24\">24<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agrifood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> emissions, FAO<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">16.5<\/span><\/td><td>Gt CO2eq<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n21\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Note 21\">21<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Food-system emissions, EDGAR-FOOD<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">18<\/span><\/td><td>Gt CO2eq<\/td><td>2015<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n10\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Note 10\">10<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Marine stocks within sustainable levels<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">62.4<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2023<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n12\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Foodborne illnesses<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">866<\/span><\/td><td>million<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n9\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Employment in agriculture, modelled<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">25.8<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n15\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agriculture share of freshwater withdrawals, World Bank<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">71.0<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2022<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Agriculture share of freshwater withdrawals, FAO<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">72<\/span><\/td><td>%<\/td><td>2025 report<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-st\"><span class=\"nf-ui-dot\" data-tone=\"info\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span>Reported<\/span><\/td><td><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n23\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-actions nrp-noprint\"><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:text\/csv;charset=utf-8,Indicator%2CValue%2CUnit%2CYear%2CState%2CSource%0APopulation%20facing%20hunger%2C7.8%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22People%20facing%20hunger%2C%20point%20estimate%22%2C645%2Cmillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22People%20facing%20hunger%2C%20range%22%2C608%20to%20696%2Cmillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AModerately%20or%20severely%20food%20insecure%2C25.8%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0ASeverely%20food%20insecure%2C778.6%2Cmillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AUnable%20to%20afford%20a%20healthy%20diet%2C2.69%2Cbillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0ACost%20of%20a%20healthy%20diet%2C4.28%2CPPP%20dollars%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0AChild%20stunting%2C23.2%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Hunger%20in%202030%2C%20SOFI%20scenarios%22%2C510%20to%20520%2Cmillion%2C2030%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Acute%20food%20insecurity%2C%2047%20countries%20and%20territories%22%2C266%2Cmillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0A%22Acute%20food%20insecurity%20share%20in%202024%2C%20SOFI%22%2C22.7%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B1%5D%0A%22Acute%20food%20insecurity%20share%20in%202024%2C%20JRC%20summary%22%2C22.3%2C%25%2C2024%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0AChildren%20acutely%20malnourished%20in%20nutrition%20crises%2C35.5%2Cmillion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B4%5D%0A%22FAO%20Food%20Price%20Index%2C%20August%202026%22%2C133.3%2Cpoints%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B48%5D%0A%22FAO%20wheat%20prices%2C%20change%20on%20a%20year%20earlier%2C%20August%202026%22%2C15.0%2C%25%2C2026%2CREPORTED%2C%5B48%5D%0A%22World%20cereal%20production%2C%20FAO%20forecast%22%2C%222%2C980%22%2Cmillion%20tonnes%2C2026%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B49%5D%0A%22World%20wheat%20production%2C%20FAO%20forecast%22%2C810.7%2Cmillion%20tonnes%2C2026%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B49%5D%0A%22World%20cereal%20ending%20stocks%202026%2F27%2C%20FAO%20forecast%22%2C947.2%2Cmillion%20tonnes%2C2026%2F27%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B49%5D%0A%22World%20cereal%20trade%202026%2F27%2C%20FAO%20forecast%22%2C509.3%2Cmillion%20tonnes%2C2026%2F27%2CSCENARIO%2C%5B49%5D%0AWorld%20food%20import%20bill%2C%222%2C218.4%22%2CUSD%20billion%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B24%5D%0A%22Agrifood%20systems%20emissions%2C%20FAO%22%2C16.5%2CGt%20CO2eq%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B21%5D%0A%22Food-system%20emissions%2C%20EDGAR-FOOD%22%2C18%2CGt%20CO2eq%2C2015%2CREPORTED%2C%5B10%5D%0AMarine%20stocks%20within%20sustainable%20levels%2C62.4%2C%25%2C2023%2CREPORTED%2C%5B12%5D%0AFoodborne%20illnesses%2C866%2Cmillion%2C2021%2CREPORTED%2C%5B9%5D%0A%22Employment%20in%20agriculture%2C%20modelled%22%2C25.8%2C%25%2C2025%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0A%22Agriculture%20share%20of%20freshwater%20withdrawals%2C%20World%20Bank%22%2C71.0%2C%25%2C2022%2CREPORTED%2C%5B15%5D%0A%22Agriculture%20share%20of%20freshwater%20withdrawals%2C%20FAO%22%2C72%2C%25%2C2025%20report%2CREPORTED%2C%5B23%5D%0A\" download=\"NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.csv\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, CSV<\/a><a class=\"nf-ui-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"data:application\/json;charset=utf-8,%7B%0A%20%22edition%22%3A%20%22NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE%22%2C%0A%20%22title%22%3A%20%22Global%20Food%20Risk%20and%20Resilience%20Report%202026%3A%20Baseline%20Edition%2C%20The%20State%20of%20the%20World%E2%80%99s%20Food%20and%20Agrifood%20Systems.%22%2C%0A%20%22status%22%3A%20%22Draft%20under%20stewardship%20review%3B%20not%20yet%20released%22%2C%0A%20%22licence%22%3A%20%22CC-BY-4.0%20for%20the%20edition%20table%3B%20each%20value%20keeps%20its%20source's%20licence%22%2C%0A%20%22columns%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%22Indicator%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Value%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Unit%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Year%22%2C%0A%20%20%22State%22%2C%0A%20%20%22Source%22%0A%20%5D%2C%0A%20%22rows%22%3A%20%5B%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Population%20facing%20hunger%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%227.8%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20facing%20hunger%2C%20point%20estimate%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22645%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22People%20facing%20hunger%2C%20range%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22608%20to%20696%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Moderately%20or%20severely%20food%20insecure%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2225.8%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Severely%20food%20insecure%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22778.6%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Unable%20to%20afford%20a%20healthy%20diet%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222.69%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Cost%20of%20a%20healthy%20diet%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%224.28%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22PPP%20dollars%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Child%20stunting%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2223.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Hunger%20in%202030%2C%20SOFI%20scenarios%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22510%20to%20520%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222030%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Acute%20food%20insecurity%2C%2047%20countries%20and%20territories%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22266%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Acute%20food%20insecurity%20share%20in%202024%2C%20SOFI%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2222.7%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B1%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Acute%20food%20insecurity%20share%20in%202024%2C%20JRC%20summary%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2222.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222024%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Children%20acutely%20malnourished%20in%20nutrition%20crises%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2235.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B4%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22FAO%20Food%20Price%20Index%2C%20August%202026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22133.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22points%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B48%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22FAO%20wheat%20prices%2C%20change%20on%20a%20year%20earlier%2C%20August%202026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2215.0%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B48%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22World%20cereal%20production%2C%20FAO%20forecast%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222%2C980%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20tonnes%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B49%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22World%20wheat%20production%2C%20FAO%20forecast%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22810.7%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20tonnes%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B49%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22World%20cereal%20ending%20stocks%202026%2F27%2C%20FAO%20forecast%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22947.2%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20tonnes%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%2F27%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B49%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22World%20cereal%20trade%202026%2F27%2C%20FAO%20forecast%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22509.3%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%20tonnes%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222026%2F27%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22SCENARIO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B49%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22World%20food%20import%20bill%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222%2C218.4%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22USD%20billion%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B24%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Agrifood%20systems%20emissions%2C%20FAO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2216.5%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Gt%20CO2eq%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B21%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Food-system%20emissions%2C%20EDGAR-FOOD%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2218%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22Gt%20CO2eq%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222015%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B10%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Marine%20stocks%20within%20sustainable%20levels%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2262.4%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222023%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B12%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Foodborne%20illnesses%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22866%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22million%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222021%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B9%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Employment%20in%20agriculture%2C%20modelled%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2225.8%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Agriculture%20share%20of%20freshwater%20withdrawals%2C%20World%20Bank%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2271.0%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222022%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B15%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%2C%0A%20%20%5B%0A%20%20%20%22Agriculture%20share%20of%20freshwater%20withdrawals%2C%20FAO%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%2272%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%25%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%222025%20report%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22REPORTED%22%2C%0A%20%20%20%22%5B23%5D%22%0A%20%20%5D%0A%20%5D%0A%7D\" download=\"NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-indicators.json\"><svg class=\"nrp-i\" viewBox=\"0 0 24 24\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\"><path d=\"M12 15V3\"\/><path d=\"M21 15v4a2 2 0 0 1-2 2H5a2 2 0 0 1-2-2v-4\"\/><path d=\"m7 10 5 5 5-5\"\/><\/svg>Indicators, JSON<\/a><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NOTES<\/p><p>Shares are rounded as published. FAO, USDA and World Bank series use different bases, and figures are shown from each issuer where they differ<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n15\" aria-label=\"Note 15\">15<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n23\" aria-label=\"Note 23\">23<\/a><\/sup>. Forecast and scenario values are labelled SCENARIO. A machine-readable copy of this table is published with the evidence bundle at release.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.2<\/span><span>Global source register<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.<\/p><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Domains bound by the register<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FOO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">HLT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">CLI<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">FIN<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">TRD<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">GOV<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">BIO<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">ENE<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">WAT<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">INF<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-tab3\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.3<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Global source register<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Category<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Coverage<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Period<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Cadence<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Role<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>SOFI 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agencies<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>hunger, diets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO Food Price Index<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>prices<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n3\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>supply, stocks<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GRFC 2026 summary<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n4\" aria-label=\"Note 4\">4<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>European Commission research service<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2025<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>GRFC mid-year update<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n5\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>multi-agency network<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>annual<\/td><td>acute food insecurity<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>World Bank Food Security Update<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n6\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>multilateral bank<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>inflation, El Ni\u00f1o<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WMO El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n8\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Note 8\">8<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 seasonal-outlook\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A statement of the shifted likelihood of conditions over the coming months compared with normal.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">seasonal outlook<\/a><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>WHO food safety fact sheet<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n9\" aria-label=\"Note 9\">9<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>UN agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2021<\/td><td>periodic<\/td><td>foodborne disease<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>USDA WASDE<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n13\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>national statistics agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2026<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td>stocks, trade<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>FAO SOFIA 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n12\" aria-label=\"Note 12\">12<\/a><\/sup><\/td><td>intergovernmental agency<\/td><td>global<\/td><td>2024<\/td><td>biennial<\/td><td>fisheries<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FIXTURE PROHIBITION<\/p><p>No demonstration or reference-cartographic fixture is used as evidence in this edition. The publication gate checks every binding against this register.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.3<\/span><span>Regional reading: food across ten clusters<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-tab4\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.4<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Regional reading: food across ten clusters<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Region<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Principal hazards<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Systems most exposed<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Baseline evidence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>North America<\/td><td>dry weather before winter wheat planting; smallest US wheat crop since 1970<\/td><td>grains, feed, exports<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup>; USDA<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n13\" aria-label=\"Note 13\">13<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South America<\/td><td>lower maize export availability in Brazil; ample poultry exports<\/td><td>maize, meat, oilseeds<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Europe<\/td><td>summer heatwaves cut animal growth; dry, hot weather curbed maize yields<\/td><td>grains, meat<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Eurasia<\/td><td>Black Sea logistics flagged as a risk to trade<\/td><td>wheat, maize, sunflower oil<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n49\" aria-label=\"Note 49\">49<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Middle East and North Africa<\/td><td>import dependence; Gulf fertiliser exports; lower feed use in Egypt<\/td><td>grains, fertiliser<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n14\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Note 14\">14<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Africa<\/td><td>hunger at 20.0%; healthy diet out of reach for 66.6%; 58 to 69 million people may need assistance in East and Southern Africa by April 2027<\/td><td>households, health, lean season<\/td><td>SOFI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup>; World Bank<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n6\" aria-label=\"Note 6\">6<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>South Asia<\/td><td>poorly distributed monsoon rains tightened irrigation supplies in India; acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a> worsened in Bangladesh<\/td><td>rice, households<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>; GRFC update<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n5\" aria-label=\"Note 5\">5<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>East Asia<\/td><td>China drawing on sorghum stocks and buying abroad; larger rice plantings in Japan<\/td><td>feed, rice<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>ASEAN<\/td><td>dry-weather concern for palm oil in Southeast Asia<\/td><td>vegetable oils<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Oceania-Pacific<\/td><td>Australian wheat yields still below average; hunger at 8.0% in Oceania<\/td><td>wheat, barley, small islands<\/td><td>FAO<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup>; SOFI<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\" aria-label=\"Note 1\">1<\/a><\/sup><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">MAP PLATES WITH THE REGIONAL EDITIONS<\/p><p>Each plate will carry its boundary source and version, projection, resolution, classification, uncertainty encoding and public-safe transform, with text and table alternatives.<\/p><\/aside><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>Regional readings summarise the cited evidence. They are not risk ratings of any region or country.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.4<\/span><span>Route card: Black Sea cereal exports<\/span><\/h2><ul class=\"nrp-chips\"><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">route<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">cereals<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">sunflower oil<\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-chip\">importers<\/li><\/ul><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Systems in view<\/dt><dd>grains, oilseeds, shipping, importing households<\/dd><dt>Defining events<\/dt><dd>constrained Black Sea shipping and export capacity through alternative routes in 2026<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n3\" aria-label=\"Note 3\">3<\/a><\/sup><sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Couplings<\/dt><dd>TRD \u2192 FOO supply; FOO \u2192 FIN prices; FOO \u2192 HLT diets<\/dd><dt>Capability evidence<\/dt><dd>importers shifting to other origins<sup class=\"nrp-fn\"><a href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n2\" aria-label=\"Note 2\">2<\/a><\/sup><\/dd><dt>Gaps<\/dt><dd>alternative route capacity; storage at ports<\/dd><dt>Agenda items<\/dt><dd>F-01 \u00b7 F-04<\/dd><\/dl><div class=\"nrp-cards\"><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Wheat and maize exports were lowered for 2026\/27 on constrained Black Sea shipping and insufficient alternative transport capacity [3].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">TRADE<\/h3><p>Export capacity<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Importers shifted to other origins, which pushed wheat prices to their highest since August 2023 [2].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">SECURITY<\/h3><p>Import dependence<\/p><\/article><article class=\"nf-ui-card nrp-card\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">FAO and USDA both report constrained flows with different totals; the issuers use different methods [3] [13].<\/p><h3 class=\"nf-ui-title\" data-level=\"card\">LEARNING<\/h3><p>Two issuers<\/p><\/article><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">evidence<\/p><p>Route cards are generated for the major crop regions and shared trade routes with the regional Baseline Editions. The Black Sea card is shown first because its 2026 disruption is documented by two issuers.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.5<\/span><span>How countries appear in the food edition<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Countries enter the food edition through the food chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.<\/p><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-tab5\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.5<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">How countries appear in the food edition<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Card field<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it shows<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Source<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>WEFH+B state<\/td><td>each core system against peer distribution bands<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Couplings<\/td><td>the national dependency matrix<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Risk objects<\/td><td>the national risk portfolio<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Capability rungs<\/td><td>the national capability ladder<\/td><td>national edition<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence age<\/td><td>oldest and newest source dates<\/td><td>national source register<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme<\/h3><div class=\"pp-cells nrp-cells-3\"><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">26<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">national<\/span><p>countries and unions<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">10<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">regional<\/span><p>clusters<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">16<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">global<\/span><p>flagship and sector<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">14<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">strategic<\/span><p><a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> reports<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nrp-cell\"><span class=\"pp-metric\">20<\/span><span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">frontier<\/span><p>technology reports<\/p><\/div><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">How to read a country card<\/h3><ul class=\"nrp-list\"><li>Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist<\/li><li>Couplings and risk objects come from the country\u2019s own national edition<\/li><li>Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions<\/li><li>Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such<\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-tab6\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.6<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Wave<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Countries and unions<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>W0<\/td><td>Canada<\/td><td>ISSUED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W1<\/td><td>United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>W2<\/td><td>Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, T\u00fcrkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia<\/td><td>PLANNED<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">boundary<\/p><p>External rankings, where cited, keep their own method and source. Nexus never converts them into a rating, and each country\u2019s ownership of its national edition is unaffected by its appearance here.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s6\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s6-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s6-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.6<\/span><span>Licences<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-tab7\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.7<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Licences of each kind of material<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Material<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Licence<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Text<\/td><td>CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Data<\/td><td>on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td>Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Maps<\/td><td>boundary source and licence printed on each plate<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Metadata<\/td><td>CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Third-party data, figures and text<\/td><td>The source&#8217;s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><tfoot><tr><td colspan=\"2\">Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.<\/td><\/tr><\/tfoot><\/table><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s7\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s7-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-s7-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">B.7<\/span><span>Formats and provenance<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-tab8\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table B.8<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">This edition in every format<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Format<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Kind<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What it is<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Identifier<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Web edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Print edition<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Indicator data<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">CSV \u00b7 JSON<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>27 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Figures<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">SVG \u00b7 PNG<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"here\">On this site<\/span><\/td><td>4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">FIG-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*<\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Slides<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No slide deck is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Evidence brief<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">HTML \u00b7 PDF<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"none\">Not recorded<\/span><\/td><td>No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Dataset with DOI<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\">DataCite<\/span><\/td><td><span class=\"nx-nr-out-s\" data-state=\"release\">At release<\/span><\/td><td>Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.<\/td><td><span class=\"nrp-mono\"><\/span><\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Provenance<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Edition pack<\/dt><dd>The edition&#8217;s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built<\/dd><dt>Evidence cut<\/dt><dd>DC-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Reproducibility<\/dt><dd>sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters<\/dd><dt>Self-check<\/dt><dd>14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release<\/dd><dt>Review<\/dt><dd>five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)<\/dd><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>GCRI for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Corrections<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version<\/dd><\/dl><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-notes\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-notes-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-notes-h\"><span>Notes<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-note\">Numbers are the edition&#8217;s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. <a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/references\/\">Annex C, references<\/a><\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r1\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 1\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r4\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 4\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r48\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 48\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r49\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 49\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r24\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 24\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a>: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r21\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 21\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Guizzardi, D. et al., Food systems are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, Nature Food 2, 198 to 209, 2021 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r10\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 10\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r12\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 12\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r9\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 9\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r15\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 15\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of the World\u2019s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r23\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 23\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r2\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 2\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r3\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 3\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r5\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 5\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 (data as of 16 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r6\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 6\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r8\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 8\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r13\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 13\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-n14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.<a class=\"nrp-notes-back\" href=\"#nx-nrp-gs-03-cb-r14\" aria-label=\"Back to the first call of note 14\">back<\/a><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><\/div><div class=\"nrp-part\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-part-references\"><header class=\"nrp-chap-head\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-top\"><ul class=\"nrp-eyerow\"><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\">Global Food 2026<\/a><\/li><li class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Annex C<\/li><\/ul><span class=\"nrp-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><h2 class=\"pp-hero-title\">References and record<\/h2><p class=\"nrp-lede\">Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.<\/p><p class=\"nrp-chap-meta\"><span>15 min read<\/span><span>0 figures<\/span><span>1 table<\/span><span>0 notes<\/span><span>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE<\/span><\/p><\/header><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s1\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s1-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s1-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.1<\/span><span>49 sources<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/uni\/\" data-tc=\"UNI\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The universal identifier of every Nexus artifact (NS-1)\">UNI<\/a> once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).<\/p><ol class=\"nrp-notes\"><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-1\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">1<\/span><span>FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026 (published 21 July 2026; full report opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-2\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">2<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 2 October 2026 (September 2026 values). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-3\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">3<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO (ed.), Cereal Supply and Demand Brief, release of 2 October 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-4\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">4<\/span><span>European Commission Joint Research Centre (ed.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026, summary page on Knowledge for Policy (the report was released 24 April 2026 by FAO, WFP and the Global Network Against Food Crises; the summary page was opened, the report was not). European Commission, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-5\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">5<\/span><span>Global Network Against Food Crises (ed.), Mid-Year Update of the 2026 Global Report on Food Crises, announcement of 21 September 2026 (data as of 31 August 2026). GNAFC, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-6\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">6<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), Food Security Update, October 2026 (data as of 16 October 2026). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-7\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">7<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, and monthly commodity price data (landing page opened, release of 3 November 2026; the outlook report itself was not opened). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-8\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">8<\/span><span>WMO (ed.), El Ni\u00f1o\/La Ni\u00f1a Update, August 2026 (factsheet). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-9\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">9<\/span><span>WHO (ed.), Food safety fact sheet, including the estimates of the global burden of foodborne diseases 2000 to 2021 published in 2026. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-10\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">10<\/span><span>Crippa, M., Solazzo, E., Guizzardi, D. et al., Food <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">systems<\/a> are responsible for a third of global anthropogenic GHG emissions, Nature Food 2, 198 to 209, 2021 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-11\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">11<\/span><span>Kornhuber, K. et al., Risks of synchronised low yields are underestimated in climate and crop model projections, Nature Communications, 2023 (open access, full text). Springer Nature. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-12\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">12<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of World Fisheries and Aquaculture 2026 (full report, June 2026). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2023 (stock status). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-13\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">13<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: US Department of Agriculture (ed.), World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates, WASDE-676, 9 October 2026. USDA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 7<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-14\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">14<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Global Agrifood Implications of the 2026 Conflict in the Middle East: Impacts on energy and fertiliser trade, and food security, information note of 15 March 2026. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-15\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">15<\/span><span>DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, database queried through the public interface (last updated 2026-10-08): employment in agriculture, agricultural value added, agricultural land, cereal yield, fertiliser consumption and agricultural freshwater withdrawals. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2023 to 2025 (by series). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-16\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">16<\/span><span>Ray, D.K., West, P.C., Clark, M. et al., <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 climate-change\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A change in the state of the climate that persists for decades or longer, identified by shifts in averages and variability; in current practice, mainly the change driven by human emissions.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">Climate change<\/a> has likely already affected global food production, PLOS ONE 14(5), e0217148, 2019 (open access, full text). Public Library of Science. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-17\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">17<\/span><span>Zhao, C. et al., Temperature increase reduces global yields of major crops in four independent estimates, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 114, 9326 to 9331, 2017 (abstract opened through Europe PMC; full text not opened). National Academy of Sciences. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-18\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">18<\/span><span>POST-CLOSE, context only: FAO and WFP (eds.), Hunger Hotspots 2026: FAO-WFP early warnings on acute <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-c1\" data-tc=\"NRS-C1 food-insecurity\" data-tk=\"Nexus risk vocabulary\" data-td=\"A situation in which people lack reliable access to enough safe and nutritious food for active and healthy lives.\" data-ts=\"NRS-C1\" data-tr=\"draft\">food insecurity<\/a>, June to November 2026 outlook (highlights page opened; report not opened). Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-19\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">19<\/span><span>FAO and WHO (eds.), Codex Alimentarius Commission, portal pages (strategic plan 2026 to 2031 and committee news). Codex Alimentarius, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-20\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">20<\/span><span>IPCC (ed.), Climate Change and Land: Special Report on climate change, <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/nrs\/#nrs-h26\" data-tc=\"NHS-1 eco.land.desertification\" data-tk=\"Land and ecosystems \u00b7 Land and wetland degradation\" data-td=\"Degradation of dryland into desert-like conditions through climate change and unsustainable land use.\" data-ts=\"NRS-H26\" data-tr=\"draft\" data-tx=\"https:\/\/risksindex.com\/hazards\/eco\/\" data-txl=\"Land and ecosystems\">desertification<\/a>, land degradation, sustainable land management, food security, and greenhouse gas fluxes in terrestrial ecosystems, Summary for Policymakers (updated January 2020). IPCC, Geneva. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-21\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">21<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions from agrifood systems: Global, regional and country trends, 2001 to 2023, FAOSTAT Analytical Brief 115 (October 2025). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-22\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">22<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of Food and Agriculture 2025: Addressing land degradation across landscapes. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-23\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">23<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), The State of the World\u2019s Land and Water Resources for Food and Agriculture 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2022 to 2023 (by indicator). Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-24\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">24<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), Food Outlook: Biannual report on global food markets, June 2026 (food import bill chapter). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-25\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">25<\/span><span>WOAH (ed.), High Pathogenicity Avian Influenza (HPAI) Situation Report 87 (period covered September 2026). World Organisation for Animal Health, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-26\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">26<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP and WRAP (eds.), Food Waste Index Report 2024; the headline of 1.05 billion tonnes wasted in 2022 was taken from search-result summaries and is not used as a figure in any finding. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-27\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">27<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD and FAO (eds.), OECD-FAO Agricultural Outlook 2026 to 2035 (June 2026); only the catalogue record was seen and no figure is used. OECD Publishing, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-28\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">28<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: FAO, WFP and GNAFC (eds.), Global Report on Food Crises 2026 (full report, 24 April 2026); the report file could not be retrieved, and its totals are taken from the opened summary [4] and from SOFI [1]. Global Network Against Food Crises, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-29\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">29<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2023\/1115 on the making available on the Union market and the export from the Union of certain commodities and products associated with deforestation and forest degradation, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory; the publication site blocked access, and application dates were not checked. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-30\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">30<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2019\/6 on veterinary medicinal products, Official Journal of the European Union, 2019, cited from memory; the 3 September 2026 date of the antimicrobial import requirements comes from the opened FAO Food Price Index release [2]. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-31\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">31<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EC) No 178\/2002 laying down the general principles and requirements of food law (General Food Law), Official Journal of the European Communities, 2002, cited from memory. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-32\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">32<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 22000:2018, Food safety management systems: requirements for any organisation in the food chain. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-33\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">33<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: WTO, Agreement on the Application of Sanitary and Phytosanitary Measures (1994), cited from memory. World Trade Organization, Geneva. Observation year 1994. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-34\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">34<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, decision 15\/4 (December 2022), cited from memory. CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-35\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">35<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Bezner Kerr, R. et al., Food, fibre, and other ecosystem products, in Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Contribution of Working Group II to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter 5. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-36\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">36<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPBES (ed.), The assessment report on pollinators, pollination and food production, 2016, cited from memory. IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-37\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">37<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Willett, W. et al., Food in the Anthropocene: the EAT-Lancet Commission on healthy diets from sustainable food systems, The Lancet 393, 447 to 492, 2019, cited from memory; the journal site blocked access. Elsevier. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-38\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">38<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Poore, J. and Nemecek, T., Reducing food\u2019s environmental impacts through producers and consumers, Science 360, 987 to 992, 2018, cited from memory. American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-39\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">39<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Springmann, M. et al., Options for keeping the food system within environmental limits, Nature 562, 519 to 525, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-40\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">40<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: Gaupp, F. et al., Changing risks of simultaneous global breadbasket failure, Nature Climate Change 10, 54 to 57, 2020, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-41\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">41<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations, Food Systems Summit +4 stocktake (2025), cited from memory. United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-42\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">42<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNCCD (ed.), Global Land Outlook, second edition. United Nations Convention to Combat Desertification, Bonn. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-43\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">43<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IFPRI (ed.), Food and Fertilizer Export Restrictions Tracker; the page returned no content. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-44\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">44<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPC (ed.), Integrated Food Security Phase Classification analyses for the Gaza Strip, the Sudan and Somalia; the site blocked automated access, and the findings are read from the opened GRFC summary and Hunger Hotspots page [4] [18]. IPC Global Support Unit, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-45\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">45<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: AMIS (ed.), Market Monitor, October 2026; the page blocked access. Agricultural Market Information System, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-46\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">46<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: World Bank (ed.), Commodity Markets Outlook, October 2026, full report (fertiliser and food price projections); only the landing page [7] was opened. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-47\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">47<\/span><span>UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), World Economic Outlook, April 2026; access was denied, and its growth assumptions are cited only as reported in SOFI [1]. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in chapter 6<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-48\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">48<\/span><span>FAO (ed.), FAO Food Price Index, release of 4 September 2026 (August 2026 values; newsroom release opened). Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><li id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-ref-49\"><span class=\"nrp-notes-n\">49<\/span><span>Rural Voice (ed.), report of 6 September 2026 on the FAO Cereal Supply and Demand Brief of 4 September 2026 (the report was opened; the FAO brief page for that release was not, and only the later 2 October release was available). Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. <span class=\"nrp-cell-u\">Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8<\/span><\/span><\/li><\/ol><\/section><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s2\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s2-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s2-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.2<\/span><span>Publication record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publication<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Title<\/dt><dd>Global Food Risk &amp; Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition<\/dd><dt>Series<\/dt><dd>Reports \u00b7 Global Sector Series GS-03<\/dd><dt>Edition<\/dt><dd>Baseline Edition 2026 \u00b7 inaugural annual<\/dd><dt>Version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 \u00b7 draft for stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Evidence close<\/dt><dd>30 September 2026<\/dd><dt>Publication date<\/dt><dd>October 2026<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>concept and version DOI at deposit<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Publisher<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Publisher of record<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Place<\/dt><dd>Toronto<\/dd><dt>Editor<\/dt><dd>Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor<\/dd><dt>Stewards<\/dt><dd>GCRI \u00b7 technical truth \u00b7 GRF \u00b7 public meaning \u00b7 GRA \u00b7 capital meaning<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source<\/dd><dt>Copyright<\/dt><dd>\u00a9 2026 GCRI \u00b7 Nexus Consortium<\/dd><dt>Language<\/dt><dd>English (en-GB) source edition<\/dd><dt>Correspondence<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway \u00b7 editorial office<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">DISCLAIMER<\/p><p>This edition is published for research, planning and public understanding. It is not a government assessment, an official warning, a rating, a certification, investment advice or an operational authorisation. Reasonable care has been taken with every source; consult the cited originals before relying on any value.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Colophon<\/h3><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Format<\/dt><dd>A4 portrait \u00b7 screen, print and archival PDF<\/dd><dt>Typefaces<\/dt><dd>Space Grotesk (display) \u00b7 Geist (text) \u00b7 IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) \u00b7 IBM Plex Mono (data)<\/dd><dt>Design standard<\/dt><dd>Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII<\/dd><dt>Accessibility<\/dt><dd>tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure<\/dd><dt>Production<\/dt><dd>Reports editorial team, GCRI<\/dd><\/dl><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">HOW TO CORRECT THIS EDITION<\/p><p>Report errors, omissions or objections through the Registry correction pathway. Each report is logged and answered; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version, and the original remains resolvable.<\/p><\/aside><h3 class=\"nrp-h3\">Release path for this version<\/h3><div class=\"nrp-tblw\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-tab1\"><table class=\"nrp-tbl\"><caption><span class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">Table C.1<\/span><span class=\"nrp-tbl-t\">Release path for this version<\/span><\/caption><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Step<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What happens<\/th><th scope=\"col\">When<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td>Draft<\/td><td>editorial self-check complete at evidence close<\/td><td>October 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Steward review<\/td><td>five passes on the exact draft (keys T \u00b7 M \u00b7 F \u00b7 N)<\/td><td>Q4 2026<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Approval<\/td><td>publication authority approves the exact digest<\/td><td>before release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Deposit<\/td><td>concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set<\/td><td>at release<\/td><\/tr><tr><td>Succession<\/td><td>the 2027 food edition reports changes against this baseline<\/td><td>2027<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><div class=\"nrp-split\"><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Current version<\/dt><dd>v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review<\/dd><dt>Previous edition<\/dt><dd>none, first edition of the series<\/dd><dt>Next edition<\/dt><dd>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div><dl class=\"nrp-dl\"><dt>Latest version<\/dt><dd>resolve the concept DOI or the registry record<\/dd><dt>Correction route<\/dt><dd>Registry correction pathway<\/dd><dt>Notice types<\/dt><dd>erratum \u00b7 addendum \u00b7 supersession \u00b7 withdrawal<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><\/div><aside class=\"nrp-call\"><p class=\"nf-ui-eyebrow\">NO CORRECTIONS \u2260 NO LIMITS<\/p><p>The absence of corrections does not mean the absence of limitations. Limitations and uncertainty are stated where they arise in the edition.<\/p><\/aside><\/section><div id=\"nx-nr-gs-03-corrections\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s3\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s3-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s3-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.3<\/span><span>Corrections log<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-corr\"><p class=\"nx-nr-corr-sum\"><span class=\"nx-nr-corr-n\">0<\/span><span>correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition&#8217;s current version.<\/span><\/p><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Edition<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Version<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Date<\/th><th scope=\"col\">State<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Change<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Notice<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Edition\"><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">GS-03<\/span><\/td><td data-label=\"Version\" class=\"nx-rd-mono\">NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/td><td data-label=\"Date\">October 2026<\/td><td data-label=\"State\">Draft<\/td><td data-label=\"Change\">Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,<\/td><td data-label=\"Notice\">None<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-rd-source\">Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.<\/p><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-gs-03-outputs\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s4\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s4-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s4-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.4<\/span><span>Open record<\/span><\/h2><div class=\"nx-nr-os\"><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>This edition&#8217;s open record<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>Publication ID<\/dt><dd>NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0<\/dd><dt>Desk identifier and series alias<\/dt><dd>NR-SEC-GS-03-2026-BL<\/dd><dt>Collection<\/dt><dd>None<\/dd><dt>DOI<\/dt><dd>Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata<\/dd><dt>Versions<\/dt><dd>Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest<\/dd><dt>Bundle<\/dt><dd>RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest<\/dd><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\" rel=\"noopener\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Credit and identity<\/h3><dl class=\"nx-nr-os-kv\"><dt>ORCID<\/dt><dd>Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record<\/dd><dt>ROR<\/dt><dd>Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone<\/dd><dt>CRediT<\/dt><dd>Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing<\/dd><dt>Account<\/dt><dd>None needed to contribute; never a password<\/dd><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Find and follow<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">Search the open indexes for Global Food and Agrifood Systems; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.<\/p><ul class=\"nx-nr-os-links\"><li><a href=\"https:\/\/openalex.org\/works?search=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Food%20and%20Agrifood%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAlex<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/explore.openaire.eu\/search\/find?fv0=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Food%20and%20Agrifood%20Systems&amp;f0=q\" rel=\"noopener\">OpenAIRE<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/search.crossref.org\/search\/works?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Food%20and%20Agrifood%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">Crossref<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/commons.datacite.org\/?query=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Food%20and%20Agrifood%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">DataCite Commons<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/zenodo.org\/search?q=Nexus%20Reports%20Global%20Food%20and%20Agrifood%20Systems\" rel=\"noopener\">Zenodo<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/archive.softwareheritage.org\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Software Heritage<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/osf.io\/prereg\/\" rel=\"noopener\">OSF preregistration<\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/via.hypothes.is\/https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/\" rel=\"noopener\">Annotate with Hypothesis<\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-card\"><h3>Mirrors and harvest<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p\">The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-mt-3\"><figure class=\"nx-nr-code\"><figcaption class=\"nx-nr-code-cap\">InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Global Food and Agrifood Systems, prefilled from this page<\/figcaption><pre class=\"nx-nr-pre\" tabindex=\"0\"><code>{&#10;  &quot;metadata&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;id&quot;: &quot;dataset&quot;&#10;    },&#10;    &quot;title&quot;: &quot;Evidence on Global Food and Agrifood Systems for Nexus Reports&quot;,&#10;    &quot;publication_date&quot;: &quot;YYYY-MM-DD&quot;,&#10;    &quot;creators&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;person_or_org&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;type&quot;: &quot;personal&quot;,&#10;          &quot;family_name&quot;: &quot;Your family name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;given_name&quot;: &quot;Your given name&quot;,&#10;          &quot;identifiers&quot;: [&#10;            {&#10;              &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;orcid&quot;,&#10;              &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;0000-0000-0000-0000&quot;&#10;            }&#10;          ]&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;affiliations&quot;: [&#10;          {&#10;            &quot;id&quot;: &quot;ROR identifier of your organisation&quot;&#10;          }&#10;        ]&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;description&quot;: &quot;What it is, where its record is kept and how it bears on Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\u2019s Food and Agrifood Systems..&quot;,&#10;    &quot;rights&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;id&quot;: &quot;cc-by-4.0&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;subjects&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Nexus Reports&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Global Food and Agrifood Systems&quot;&#10;      },&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;subject&quot;: &quot;Global Sector Report \u00b7 GS-03&quot;&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;related_identifiers&quot;: [&#10;      {&#10;        &quot;identifier&quot;: &quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/&quot;,&#10;        &quot;scheme&quot;: &quot;url&quot;,&#10;        &quot;relation_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;issupplementto&quot;&#10;        },&#10;        &quot;resource_type&quot;: {&#10;          &quot;id&quot;: &quot;publication-report&quot;&#10;        }&#10;      }&#10;    ],&#10;    &quot;version&quot;: &quot;1.0.0&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;custom_fields&quot;: {},&#10;  &quot;access&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;record&quot;: &quot;public&quot;,&#10;    &quot;files&quot;: &quot;public&quot;&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;files&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;enabled&quot;: true&#10;  },&#10;  &quot;parent&quot;: {&#10;    &quot;communities&quot;: {&#10;      &quot;default&quot;: &quot;nexusreports&quot;&#10;    }&#10;  }&#10;}<\/code><\/pre><\/figure><\/div><div class=\"nx-nr-os-hook\" data-nx-research-hub=\"slot\" data-nx-research-context=\"{&quot;org&quot;:&quot;GCRI&quot;,&quot;site&quot;:&quot;gcri&quot;,&quot;url&quot;:&quot;https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/&quot;,&quot;kind&quot;:&quot;edition&quot;,&quot;subject&quot;:&quot;Global Food and Agrifood Systems&quot;,&quot;series&quot;:[&quot;Global Sector Report \u00b7 GS-03&quot;]}\" hidden><\/div><\/section><\/div><div id=\"nx-nr-gs-03-pillars\"><section class=\"nrp-block\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s5\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s5-h\"><h2 class=\"nrp-h2\" id=\"nx-nrp-gs-03-cc-s5-h\"><span class=\"nrp-num\">C.5<\/span><span>Where this edition sits among the six pillars<\/span><\/h2><p class=\"nrp-stand\">Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.<\/p><ol class=\"nx-pl-list\"><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F03 Sealed observations and indicator series<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F04 After-action and scenario findings for<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Foundry<\/span> National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Applied in editions<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/standards\/\" data-tc=\"Nexus Standards\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The foundation standards\">Nexus Standards<\/a>: applied in editions.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>GS-03 edition<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Reports<\/span> Global Food 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.<\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F06 Method and correction findings as change<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Standards<\/span> Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Universe<\/span> Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><strong>Taught in the open<\/strong> <span class=\"nx-pl-in\">Academy<\/span> Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/li><\/ol><p class=\"nx-caption\"><span>What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-03 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.<\/span><\/p><ul class=\"nx-pl-legend\" aria-label=\"Pillars\"><li data-pillar=\"labs\" data-hue=\"social\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-labs\/\">Labs<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"foundry\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-foundry\/\">Foundry<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"universe\" data-hue=\"water\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/universe.nexus\/\">Universe<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"standards\" data-hue=\"biodiversity\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/\">Nexus Standards<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"reports\" data-hue=\"energy\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/\">Reports<\/a><\/li><li data-pillar=\"academy\" data-hue=\"risk\"><span class=\"nx-pl-dot\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/\">Risk Academy<\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table nx-rd-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Handoff<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Between<\/th><th scope=\"col\">What crosses, and when<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F03<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F04<\/span><\/td><td>Universe to Reports<\/td><td>After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"foundry\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F05<\/span><\/td><td>Foundry to Reports<\/td><td>National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Nexus Standards to Reports<\/td><td>Nexus Standards: applied in editions.<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"standards\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F06<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Nexus Standards<\/td><td>Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"universe\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">F12<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Universe<\/td><td>Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).<\/td><\/tr><tr data-pillar=\"academy\"><td><span class=\"nx-rd-code\">Ring<\/span><\/td><td>Reports to Risk Academy<\/td><td>Risk Academy: taught in the open.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><\/article><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nrp-noprint\"><section id=\"nx-sec-nr-gateway\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"systemic\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Contribute<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-nr-gateway-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Send evidence or a correction on Global Food and Agrifood Systems.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Reports is the Consortium&#8217;s quarterly publication, written by six desks. This page sits with the GCRI <a class=\"nx-link nx-term\" href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/systems\" data-tc=\"Systems\" data-tk=\"Nexus Standards\" data-td=\"The twenty Nexus systems, NXS-CMD to NXS-LAB\">Systems<\/a> Evidence desk. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work. Sent to the wrong desk, it is forwarded, not refused.<\/p><div class=\"nx-chips\"><span class=\"nx-chip\">GCRI Systems Evidence desk<\/span><span class=\"nx-chip\">Global Sector Risk and Resilience<\/span><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-dest\"><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/write-to-us\/contact\/\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Email<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Gateway GW-GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Send it from this page<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Evidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/open-science\/#nx-sec-zenodo\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Zenodo<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">Open deposit<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">Deposit it and submit to the community<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">Publish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dest-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/nexus-reports\/contribute\/#nx-sec-routing\"><span class=\"nx-dest-top\"><span class=\"nx-dest-rel\">Reports<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-host\">GCRI<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-title\">See which desk takes what you have<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-why\">The routing table opens the contribution page: what you have, the desk that takes it, how each contribution is reviewed and credited, and the licence.<\/span><span class=\"nx-dest-go\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"contribute\" data-nxf-kind=\"workflow\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/nexus-reports\/editions\/gs-03\/full#contribute\" data-nxf-title=\"Contribute evidence\" data-nxf-height=\"480\" hidden><\/div><p class=\"nx-note nx-mt-3\">Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><p class=\"nx-note\" data-nr-rights=\"true\"><a class=\"nx-link\" rel=\"license\" href=\"https:\/\/creativecommons.org\/licenses\/by\/4.0\/\">CC BY 4.0<\/a> Free to read. Text and figures: CC BY 4.0. Data: CC0 1.0. Authors keep copyright. Published by GCRI Canada.<\/p><section id=\"nx-sec-signature\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"climate\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-sec-signature-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Sector signature<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-sec-signature-h\" class=\"nx-section-title\">The sectors behind Global Food and Agrifood Systems.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-canvas-wrap\"><figure class=\"nx-nsig\" data-nx-sig=\"WFHB\" data-sig-name=\"Food and its partners\" data-sig-line=\"Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).\" data-sig-inst=\"Reports\"><div class=\"nx-nsig-plate\"><div class=\"nx-nsig-strip\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Signatures in context\" hidden><\/div><div class=\"nx-nsig-stage\"><div class=\"nx-nsig-top\"><span>Select corners \u00b7 hover lines<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-pairs\">6 \/ 15 relations<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-nsig-tilt\"><svg class=\"nx-nsig-svg\" viewBox=\"-370 -290 740 580\" role=\"img\" aria-label=\"Sector signature hexagon: Water, Food, Health and Biodiversity selected, 6 of 15 relations in play, coupling 0.46. Teaching values.\" focusable=\"false\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-nsig-read\"><div><p class=\"nx-nsig-k\">Signature<\/p><p class=\"nx-nsig-name\">Food and its partners<\/p><p class=\"nx-nsig-line\">Food gives nutrition to health (0.7), land conversion to biodiversity (0.6) and withdrawals and runoff to water (0.3).<\/p><\/div><p class=\"nx-nsig-code\" aria-live=\"polite\"><span>W<\/span> \u00b7 <span class=\"nx-nsig-off\">E<\/span> \u00b7 <span class=\"nx-nsig-off\">I<\/span> \u00b7 <span>F<\/span> \u00b7 <span>H<\/span> \u00b7 <span>B<\/span><\/p><dl class=\"nx-nsig-stats\"><div><dt>Sectors<\/dt><dd><strong>4<\/strong> <small>of 6<\/small><\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Relations<\/dt><dd><strong>6<\/strong> <small>of 15<\/small><\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Coupling<\/dt><dd><strong>0.46<\/strong> <small>share of total<\/small><\/dd><\/div><\/dl><div class=\"nx-nsig-detail\"><h3 class=\"nx-nsig-dh\">Strongest relations in play<\/h3><ul class=\"nx-nsig-rel\"><li><span class=\"nx-nsig-rt\"><b>Food \u2192 Biodiversity<\/b> \u00b7 land conversion<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-bar\" data-v=\"6\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-v\">0.6<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-nsig-rt\"><b>Water \u2192 Food<\/b> \u00b7 irrigation<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-bar\" data-v=\"8\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-v\">0.8<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-nsig-rt\"><b>Water \u2192 Biodiversity<\/b> \u00b7 environmental flows<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-bar\" data-v=\"6\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-v\">0.6<\/span><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-nsig-rt\"><b>Food \u2192 Health<\/b> \u00b7 nutrition<\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-bar\" data-v=\"7\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><i><\/i><\/span><span class=\"nx-nsig-v\">0.7<\/span><\/li><\/ul><\/div><div class=\"nx-nsig-actions\" hidden><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-nsig-btn\" data-sig-act=\"all\">Select all<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-nsig-btn\" data-sig-act=\"clear\">Clear<\/button><button type=\"button\" class=\"nx-nsig-btn nx-nsig-pri\" data-sig-act=\"copy\">Copy signature<\/button><\/div><\/div><\/div><figcaption class=\"nx-nsig-note\">Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.<\/figcaption><\/figure><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section nx-deeper-band\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-gs-03-full-h\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><nav class=\"nx-deeper\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-gs-03-full-h\" data-nx-deeper=\"3\" data-nx-resources=\"1 1 1\"><h2 class=\"nx-deeper-h\" id=\"nx-deeper-therisk-global-nexus-reports-editions-gs-03-full-h\">Go deeper<\/h2><ul><li><a href=\"https:\/\/docs.therisk.global\/organization\/model\/scenarios\/urban-flood\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Documentation:<\/span> Urban flood<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/risksacademy.com\/risk-science\/risk-information-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Academy:<\/span> Risk information standards and interoperability<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><li><a href=\"https:\/\/nexustandards.com\/data\/identification-standards\/\" data-ext><span class=\"nx-deeper-k\">Standards:<\/span> Identification (the UNI)<span class=\"nx-deeper-x\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><span class=\"nx-deeper-sr\"> (opens another site)<\/span><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/nav><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script><style>@media print { @page { margin: 20mm 17mm 20mm 17mm; @top-left { content: \"Nexus Reports\"; font: 500 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @top-right { content: \"Global Food Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World\\002019 s Food and Agrifood Systems. \\0000b7  Baseline Edition 2026\"; font: 400 7.5pt \"IBM Plex Sans\", sans-serif; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-left { content: \"NR-SECTOR-FOOD-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE \\0000b7  Draft, not released\"; font: 400 7pt \"IBM Plex Mono\", monospace; color: #4a4a4a; } @bottom-center { content: \"CC BY 4.0. 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