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class=\"nx-theme-toggle\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Appearance of this page\" hidden><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"light\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Light<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"dark\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Dark<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"auto\" aria-pressed=\"true\">Auto<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-folio\" aria-label=\"Document reference\"><strong>G-P19 \u00b7 INDEX \u00b7 topics<\/strong>GCRI dossier \u00b7 service level R0<\/div><div class=\"nx-hero-grid\"><div class=\"nx-hero-text\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">GCRI<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u00b7<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Systems Science and Modelling<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u00b7<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">In development<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-accent-row\"><span class=\"nx-accent-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span>Systems Science and Modelling \u00b7 Topics<\/span><\/div><h1 id=\"nx-title-1\" class=\"nx-hero-title\">Topics<\/h1><p class=\"nx-tagline\">Topics at Systems Science and Modelling: the pages in this section are listed below, each with its own scope and status.<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/systems-modelling\/topics\/model-intercomparison\/\">Open Model intercomparison <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/systems-modelling\/\">Back to Systems Science and Modelling<\/a><\/div><dl class=\"nx-facts\"><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Publisher<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation<\/dd><\/div><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Field<\/dt><dd>Methods and modelling, Risk management and systemic risk, Research and evidence<\/dd><\/div><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Status<\/dt><dd>In development<\/dd><\/div><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Service level<\/dt><dd>R0: information and enquiries<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section> <nav class=\"nx-index-strip\" data-nx-spy=\"true\" aria-label=\"On this page\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><a href=\"#nx-sec-brief-answer\"><span>01<\/span>The short answer<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-about-this-section\"><span>02<\/span>Topics at Systems Science and\u2026<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-pg-map-of-topics\"><span>03<\/span>How the systems modelling topics\u2026<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-terms\"><span>04<\/span>Terms used on this page<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-pg-sources\"><span>05<\/span>Where this page's references lead<\/a><a href=\"#nx-s-7-sec\"><span>06<\/span>Pages in Topics<\/a><\/div><\/nav> <section id=\"nx-sec-brief-answer\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"project\" data-variant=\"inset\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">In brief<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-2\" class=\"nx-section-title\">The short answer.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The Systems Science and Modelling topics are the eight subject dossiers of its field, among them model intercomparison, uncertainty and validation, and coupled systems modelling. Each dossier sets out how the risk develops, what is measured and in which units, the public sources and their licences, the methods, who decides and the limits of the evidence.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-about-this-section\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">About this section<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-3\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Topics at Systems Science and Modelling.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">GCRI is a research, development and policy institution. It is not a regulator, and it does not certify, license or approve; its findings carry their methods and uncertainty.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-pg-map-of-topics\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"project\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">How the topics fit<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-4\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How the systems modelling topics connect.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><p class=\"nx-p\">The topics serve modellers and analysts, from <a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/systems-modelling\/topics\/model-intercomparison\/\">intercomparison<\/a> and validation through coupling, networks and agent-based models to optimisation, digital twins and reproducibility. A reader looks for which methods fit a cross-system question and how to show their limits. Each topic links to the method pages it uses.<\/p><p class=\"nx-p\">The topics cover intercomparison, validation, coupling, networks, agent-based models, optimisation, digital twins and reproducibility.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-terms\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"inset\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-5\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Key terms<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-5\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Terms used on this page.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Ensemble<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">A set of model runs from different models or settings used to estimate a range of outcomes.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Model credibility<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">The degree of trust that a model is fit for a specific use, based on evidence.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Loose coupling<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">Linking models by passing outputs between them at intervals without tight feedback.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Threshold model<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">A cascade model in which a node fails or adopts once enough of its neighbours have.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Agent<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">An autonomous entity in a model, such as a person, household or firm, with its own state and rules.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-pg-sources\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"project\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-6\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Sources<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-6\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Where this page's references lead.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-list\" data-nav=\"true\"><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.isimip.org\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span>ISIMIP Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.jasss.org\/23\/2\/7.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span>ODD protocol for describing agent-based models (Grimm et al.)<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.iso.org\/standard\/72140.html\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span>IEC 31010:2019 Risk assessment techniques (ISO\/IEC)<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.nature.com\/articles\/sdata201618\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span>FAIR Guiding Principles for scientific data management (Wilkinson et al., Scientific Data)<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-7-sec\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"risk\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-7\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Pages<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-7\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Pages in Topics.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-cards\" data-cols=\"3\"><a class=\"nx-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/systems-modelling\/topics\/model-intercomparison\/\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Topic<\/span><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Model intercomparison<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Comparing models of the same system, and what disagreement tells you.<\/p><\/a><a class=\"nx-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/systems-modelling\/topics\/uncertainty-and-validation\/\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Topic<\/span><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Uncertainty and validation<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Quantifying uncertainty, validation against observations and the limits of calibration.<\/p><\/a><a class=\"nx-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/systems-modelling\/topics\/coupled-systems-modelling\/\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Topic<\/span><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Coupled systems modelling<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Linking water, energy, food, health and infrastructure models without hiding assumptions.<\/p><\/a><a class=\"nx-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/systems-modelling\/topics\/networks-and-cascades\/\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Topic<\/span><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Networks and cascades<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Network science for dependency, contagion and cascading failure.<\/p><\/a><a class=\"nx-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/systems-modelling\/topics\/agent-based-and-complexity\/\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Topic<\/span><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Agent-based and complexity models<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Behaviour, adaptation and emergence in social-technical systems.<\/p><\/a><a class=\"nx-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/systems-modelling\/topics\/optimization-under-uncertainty\/\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Topic<\/span><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Optimization under uncertainty<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Robust and adaptive decisions when futures are deeply uncertain.<\/p><\/a><a class=\"nx-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/systems-modelling\/topics\/digital-twins-method\/\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Topic<\/span><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Digital twins: method and limits<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">What a twin can and cannot represent, and how it is kept honest.<\/p><\/a><a class=\"nx-card\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/systems-modelling\/topics\/reproducible-modelling\/\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Topic<\/span><h3 class=\"nx-h4 nx-mt-2\">Reproducible modelling<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Versioned models, data lineage and re-runnable results.<\/p><\/a><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-tone=\"alt\" 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