{"id":300,"date":"2026-10-12T16:18:14","date_gmt":"2026-10-12T16:18:14","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/?page_id=300"},"modified":"2026-10-14T04:57:13","modified_gmt":"2026-10-14T04:57:13","slug":"methods","status":"publish","type":"page","link":"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/research\/methods\/","title":{"rendered":"Methods and uncertainty"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<!-- Nexus network page \u00b7 https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/research\/methods\/ \u00b7 source template \u00b7 generated by integrations\/wordpress\/network\/build.mjs, never edit this file --><script type=\"text\/x-nexus\" class=\"_iub_cs_skip\" id=\"nxe-fig-engine\" 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:where([role=\"tablist\"],[role=\"toolbar\"],[hidden],button,.nx-theme-toggle,.nx-live-slot){display:none}#nxe-n2ngvl9j.nxe img{max-width:100%;height:auto}<\/style><svg class=\"nx-defs\" aria-hidden=\"true\" focusable=\"false\" width=\"0\" height=\"0\"><defs><linearGradient id=\"nx-gi\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-giu\" gradientUnits=\"userSpaceOnUse\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"800\" y2=\"0\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gi-a\"\/><stop offset=\"0.55\" class=\"nx-gi-b\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gi-c\"\/><\/linearGradient><linearGradient id=\"nx-gp\" x1=\"0\" y1=\"0\" x2=\"1\" y2=\"1\"><stop offset=\"0\" class=\"nx-gp-a\"\/><stop offset=\"1\" class=\"nx-gp-b\"\/><\/linearGradient><\/defs><\/svg><section class=\"nx-hero\" data-layout=\"split\" data-ground=\"none\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-title-1\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-theme-toggle\" role=\"group\" aria-label=\"Appearance of this page\" hidden><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"light\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Light<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"dark\" aria-pressed=\"false\">Dark<\/button><button type=\"button\" data-mode=\"auto\" aria-pressed=\"true\">Auto<\/button><\/div><div class=\"nx-folio\" aria-label=\"Document reference\"><strong>G01 \u00b7 EVIDENCE \u00b7 methods<\/strong>GCRI dossier \u00b7 service level R0<\/div><div class=\"nx-hero-grid\"><div class=\"nx-hero-text\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">GCRI<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u00b7<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Water Nexus<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\" aria-hidden=\"true\">\u00b7<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Established<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-accent-row\"><span class=\"nx-accent-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span>Methods and uncertainty<\/span><\/div><h1 id=\"nx-title-1\" class=\"nx-hero-title\">Methods and uncertainty<\/h1><p class=\"nx-tagline\">The methods Water Nexus relies on, the assumptions they carry and the limits of what they can show.<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/contact\/\">Make an enquiry <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/research\/\">Back to Research and evidence<\/a><\/div><dl class=\"nx-facts\"><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Publisher<\/dt><dd>The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation<\/dd><\/div><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Field<\/dt><dd>Water, Climate and hazards, Critical infrastructure<\/dd><\/div><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Status<\/dt><dd>Established<\/dd><\/div><div><dt class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Service level<\/dt><dd>R0: information and enquiries<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><div data-lv-fill=\"console\" data-lv-id=\"cascade\"><div class=\"nx-window\"><div class=\"nx-window-bar\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><span class=\"nx-window-dots\"><span><\/span><span><\/span><span><\/span><\/span><span><strong>GCRI<\/strong> \u00b7 Water Nexus \u00b7 Evidence register<\/span><span class=\"nx-window-note\">Illustrative<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-figure-frame\" data-scene=\"true\"><figure class=\"nx-fk nx-cx\" data-fk=\"cx-water-evidence-register\" data-cx=\"water.evidence-register\" data-variant=\"hero\" aria-label=\"Evidence register: illustrative console with placeholder names and values\"><div class=\"nx-fk-head\"><div class=\"nx-fk-heading\"><h3 class=\"nx-fk-title\">Evidence register<\/h3><p class=\"nx-fk-sub\">Water \u00b7 Methods and uncertainty<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-cx-status\"><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"info\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>Register current<\/span><span class=\"nx-cx-prod\">GCRI \u00b7 Water Nexus<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-cx-grid\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel nx-cx-p\" data-w=\"4\" data-t=\"table\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel-head\"><div><h4 class=\"nx-fk-panel-title\">Indicators<\/h4><p class=\"nx-fk-panel-sub\">unit \u00b7 cadence \u00b7 label<\/p><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-tablewrap\" data-fk-view=\"table:cx-water-evidence-register-t0\"><table class=\"nx-fk-table\" data-fk-table=\"cx-water-evidence-register-t0\" aria-label=\"Indicators\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c0\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c0\">Indicator<\/button><\/th><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c1\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c1\">Unit<\/button><\/th><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c2\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c2\">Cadence<\/button><\/th><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c3\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c3\">Label<\/button><\/th><th scope=\"col\" data-col=\"c4\" aria-sort=\"none\"><button type=\"button\" data-fk-sort=\"c4\">Passport<\/button><\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-water-evidence-register:r0-0\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\"><td>Reservoir storage<\/td><td data-sv=\"0\"> of capacity<\/td><td>daily<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"info\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>OBSERVED<\/span><\/td><td>SP-8666<\/td><\/tr><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-water-evidence-register:r0-1\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\"><td>Streamflow at outlet<\/td><td>m\u00b3\/s<\/td><td>15 min<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"info\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>OBSERVED<\/span><\/td><td>SP-5025<\/td><\/tr><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-water-evidence-register:r0-2\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\"><td>SPI-3<\/td><td>index<\/td><td>monthly<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"info\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>DERIVED<\/span><\/td><td>SP-0773<\/td><\/tr><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-water-evidence-register:r0-3\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\" aria-current=\"true\" data-cur=\"true\"><td>E. coli compliance<\/td><td data-sv=\"0\"> samples<\/td><td>weekly<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"info\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>OBSERVED<\/span><\/td><td>SP-1926<\/td><\/tr><tr data-fk-key=\"cx-water-evidence-register:r0-4\" tabindex=\"0\" role=\"row\" aria-selected=\"false\"><td>Environmental flow<\/td><td>m\u00b3\/s<\/td><td>daily<\/td><td><span class=\"nx-fk-pill\" data-state=\"info\"><i aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/i>MODELLED<\/span><\/td><td>SP-5086<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-panel nx-cx-p\" data-w=\"2\" data-t=\"kv\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel-head\"><div><h4 class=\"nx-fk-panel-title\">Source passport<\/h4><\/div><\/div><dl class=\"nx-fk-dl\"><div><dt>Source<\/dt><dd>Gauge network telemetry<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Licence<\/dt><dd>open \u00b7 attribution<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Steward<\/dt><dd>Irrigation board<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Coverage<\/dt><dd>64 pct of places<\/dd><\/div><div><dt>Known limits<\/dt><dd>sparse in uplands<\/dd><\/div><\/dl><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-panel nx-cx-p\" data-w=\"6\" data-t=\"chart\"><div class=\"nx-fk-panel-head\"><div><h4 class=\"nx-fk-panel-title\">Coverage by place<\/h4><\/div><\/div><svg class=\"nx-fk-svg\" viewBox=\"0 0 520 210\" width=\"520\" height=\"210\" role=\"img\" focusable=\"false\" preserveAspectRatio=\"xMidYMid meet\" aria-label=\"Coverage by place\" data-fk-chart=\"cx-water-evidence-register-c2\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><\/svg><\/div><\/div><div class=\"nx-fk-tip\" aria-hidden=\"true\" hidden><\/div><\/figure><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-caption\"><strong>Water Nexus \u00b7 Evidence register<\/strong><span>Evidence register, in outline: domain structure with placeholder names and illustrative values, not a record.<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section> <nav class=\"nx-index-strip\" data-nx-spy=\"true\" aria-label=\"On this page\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><a href=\"#nx-sec-brief-answer\"><span>01<\/span>The short answer<\/a><a href=\"#nx-s-3-sec\"><span>02<\/span>Draft to published version<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-field\"><span>03<\/span>Water security in the Lake Chad Basin<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-methods\"><span>04<\/span>The methods in use<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-pg-method-register\"><span>05<\/span>Each method, its role in this field\u2026<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-pg-uncertainty\"><span>06<\/span>Where uncertainty in water risk\u2026<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-uncertainty\"><span>07<\/span>How uncertainty is reported<\/a><a href=\"#nx-sec-terms\"><span>08<\/span>Terms used on this page<\/a><\/div><\/nav> <section id=\"nx-sec-brief-answer\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"water\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-2\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">In brief<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-2\" class=\"nx-section-title\">The short answer.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The Water Nexus methods page sets out the methods the platform relies on, among them hydrology and water science, water and environmental engineering, and geospatial information systems, with their assumptions, validation and limits. Each analysis lists its assumptions and data, reports ranges and confidence beside central estimates, is checked against observations or other models, and states what it cannot show.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"search\" data-nxf-kind=\"search\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/G01\/research\/methods\/#search\" data-nxf-title=\"Search publications\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><section id=\"nx-s-3-sec\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"climate\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-3\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Canvas<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-3\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Draft to published version.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-canvas-wrap\"><div class=\"nx-plate\" data-wide=\"true\"><div class=\"nx-plate-label\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\"><strong>Canvas<\/strong> \u00b7 draft to published version<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Design, not a record<\/span><\/div><div class=\"nx-figure-frame\" data-scene=\"true\"><svg class=\"nx-figure nx-ui nx-dag\" viewBox=\"0 0 1200 564\" data-nx-dag=\"true\" data-w=\"1200\" data-h=\"564\" role=\"img\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-dag-g01-research-methods-ipcc-risk-t nx-dag-g01-research-methods-ipcc-risk-d\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><title id=\"nx-dag-g01-research-methods-ipcc-risk-t\">Methods and uncertainty: risk as hazard, exposure and vulnerability<\/title><desc id=\"nx-dag-g01-research-methods-ipcc-risk-d\">Risk arises from the interaction of hazard, exposure and vulnerability (sensitivity and adaptive capacity); responses act on each driver and leave a residual risk that is monitored. Design of the process, not a record of a run.<\/desc><\/svg><\/div><\/div><p class=\"nx-caption\"><strong>Fig.<\/strong><span>How a finding is reviewed before it is published. Design, not a record.<\/span><\/p><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-field\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-4\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Geography<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-4\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Water security in the Lake Chad Basin.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Rivers, lakes and how far each division sits from mapped surface water, shown for the Lake Chad Basin as an example geography for this subject.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-canvas-wrap\"><div class=\"nx-map nx-cmap\" data-nx-map=\"ctx\" data-cmap=\"lake-chad:water\" data-ramp=\"orange\" data-basis=\"case\" data-focus=\"0 0 2000 1400|810 0 1781 1286|0 0 1042 768|114 686 922 1381|689 747 1017 1327\"><figure class=\"nx-fk\" data-fk=\"map-lake-chad-water\" data-ramp=\"orange\" data-nx-z=\"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\"><figcaption class=\"nx-fk-cap\"><span>Rivers, lakes and how far each division sits from mapped surface water.<\/span><span data-honesty=\"true\">Indicator derived from Natural Earth at map scale; a screening view, not an assessment.<\/span><\/figcaption><\/figure><div class=\"nx-live-slot nx-live-slot--map\" data-nxf-slot=\"map\" data-nxf-kind=\"map\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/G01\/research\/methods\/#map\" data-nxf-title=\"Water Nexus live map\" data-nxf-height=\"560\" hidden><\/div><div class=\"nx-map-hud\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">GCRI \u00b7 Water Nexus \u00b7 field<\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-map-hud-right\">DESIGN FIGURE<\/span><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-methods\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"water\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-5\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Methods<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-5\" class=\"nx-section-title\">The methods in use.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-methods\"><ol class=\"nx-mledger\" aria-label=\"Methods\"><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/hydrology\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">01<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Hydrology and water science<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Rainfall-runoff modelling of a basin \u00b7 Water balance accounting<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/science\/hydrology\/\" aria-label=\"Hydrology and water science: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/environmental-engineering\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">02<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Water and environmental engineering<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Treatment and distribution resilience \u00b7 Water safety planning<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/engineering\/environmental-engineering\/\" aria-label=\"Water and environmental engineering: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/geospatial\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">03<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Geospatial information systems<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Exposure mapping \u00b7 Catchment and basin delineation \u00b7 Public-safe basin maps<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/technology\/geospatial\/\" aria-label=\"Geospatial information systems: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/earth-observation\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">04<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Earth observation and remote sensing<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Flood extent from radar \u00b7 Surface water and reservoir monitoring<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/technology\/earth-observation\/\" aria-label=\"Earth observation and remote sensing: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/sensing-iot\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Sensors, IoT and observation networks<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Gauge and well telemetry \u00b7 Utility network monitoring \u00b7 Low-cost sensing with stated uncertainty<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/technology\/sensing-iot\/\" aria-label=\"Sensors, IoT and observation networks: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/forecasting\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Forecasting and time-series analysis<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Flood forecasting by reach \u00b7 Seasonal drought outlooks \u00b7 Inflow forecasts for reservoirs<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/forecasting\/\" aria-label=\"Forecasting and time-series analysis: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/extreme-value\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">07<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Extreme value theory and tail risk<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Return-period flows and rainfall \u00b7 Regional frequency analysis<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/extreme-value\/\" aria-label=\"Extreme value theory and tail risk: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/spatial-statistics\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">08<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Spatial statistics and geostatistics<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Rainfall and groundwater interpolation \u00b7 Regionalisation to ungauged basins<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/spatial-statistics\/\" aria-label=\"Spatial statistics and geostatistics: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-mledger-main\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/uncertainty-quantification\/\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-n\" aria-hidden=\"true\">09<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-body\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-name\">Uncertainty quantification and model validation<\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-role\">Ensemble and parameter uncertainty \u00b7 Propagation through the cascade \u00b7 Evidence labelling<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-mledger-go\"><span class=\"nx-mledger-go-label\">Applied here<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/span><\/a><div class=\"nx-mledger-aside\"><a class=\"nx-mledger-canon\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/stem\/mathematics\/uncertainty-quantification\/\" aria-label=\"Uncertainty quantification and model validation: canonical page on the STEM Commons\">Canonical \u00b7 STEM Commons <span aria-hidden=\"true\">\u2197<\/span><\/a><\/div><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><div class=\"nx-live-slot\" data-nxf-slot=\"evidence\" data-nxf-kind=\"evidence\" data-nxf-resource=\"nexus:\/\/gcri\/G01\/research\/methods\/#evidence\" data-nxf-title=\"Evidence records\" data-nxf-height=\"520\" hidden><\/div><section id=\"nx-sec-pg-method-register\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"climate\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-6\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">05<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Method register<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-6\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><ul class=\"nx-dir\" data-cols=\"3\" aria-label=\"Method\"><li><a class=\"nx-dir-row\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/hydrology\/\"><span class=\"nx-dir-name\">Hydrology<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Role here<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Hydrology is the core science of this platform: it turns rainfall, snow, soil, vegetation and geology into the river flows, groundwater levels and storage that every water decision depends on.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Checks applied<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Split-sample calibration; Mass balance closure; Flood extent comparison; Stationarity check<\/span><\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dir-row\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/earth-observation\/\"><span class=\"nx-dir-name\">Earth observation<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Role here<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Satellites see the whole basin at once and return every few days: surface water, soil moisture, snow, vegetation stress and, after an event, the extent of the flood.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Checks applied<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Ground reference; Cross-sensor consistency; Cloud and revisit gaps<\/span><\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dir-row\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/environmental-engineering\/\"><span class=\"nx-dir-name\">Environmental engineering<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Role here<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Environmental engineering is where the science reaches the tap: treatment, distribution, wastewater and the design margins that keep services running through drought, flood and contamination.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Checks applied<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Design standard review; Incident reconstruction; Independent engineering review<\/span><\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dir-row\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/extreme-value\/\"><span class=\"nx-dir-name\">Extreme value<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Role here<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Extreme-value statistics gives the return period its meaning: how rare a flow, a rainfall depth or a dry spell is, and how uncertain that estimate is when the record is short.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Checks applied<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Goodness of fit; Bootstrap uncertainty; Stationarity tests<\/span><\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dir-row\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/forecasting\/\"><span class=\"nx-dir-name\">Forecasting<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Role here<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Forecasting turns observations into lead time: hours for flash floods, days for river floods, weeks to a season for drought.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Checks applied<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Hindcast verification; Reliability diagrams; Warning performance<\/span><\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dir-row\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/geospatial\/\"><span class=\"nx-dir-name\">Geospatial<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Role here<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Geospatial methods put every observation on the map: catchment boundaries, flood extents, wells, treatment works and the people and assets exposed to each hazard.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Checks applied<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Projection and alignment; Normalisation; Disclosure review<\/span><\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dir-row\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/sensing-iot\/\"><span class=\"nx-dir-name\">Sensing iot<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Role here<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Sensing and telemetry bring the gauge, the well and the pipe network online: continuous levels, flows, pressures and quality readings that forecasting and operations depend on.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Checks applied<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Calibration schedule; Quality flags; Security review<\/span><\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dir-row\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/spatial-statistics\/\"><span class=\"nx-dir-name\">Spatial statistics<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Role here<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Spatial statistics fills the space between gauges: interpolating rainfall and groundwater levels, estimating what an ungauged catchment would show, and stating how uncertain the map is where data are thin.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Checks applied<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Cross-validation; Variogram review; Edge effects<\/span><\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-dir-row\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/stem\/uncertainty-quantification\/\"><span class=\"nx-dir-name\">Uncertainty quantification<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Role here<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Uncertainty quantification is what makes the evidence honest: every modelled value on this platform carries a range, a label and the assumptions behind it, so a decision-maker can see how much weight it bears.<\/span><\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-fact\"><span class=\"nx-dir-k\">Checks applied<\/span><span class=\"nx-dir-v\">Sensitivity analysis; Calibration of probabilities; Label audit<\/span><\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-pg-uncertainty\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-7\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">06<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Uncertainty<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-7\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Where uncertainty in water risk comes from, and how it is shown.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th>Source<\/th><th>Typical size<\/th><th>How it is reported<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">Rainfall input<\/td><td data-label=\"Typical size\">Large in convective and mountain climates; gauge networks are sparse<\/td><td data-label=\"How it is reported\">Ensembles of rainfall products; spread carried to flow<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">Model structure<\/td><td data-label=\"Typical size\">Differs most in low flows and groundwater exchange<\/td><td data-label=\"How it is reported\">Multi-model comparison on the same basin<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">Parameters<\/td><td data-label=\"Typical size\">Equifinality: many parameter sets fit the same record<\/td><td data-label=\"How it is reported\">Ranges from calibration, not a single best fit<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">Non-stationarity<\/td><td data-label=\"Typical size\">Grows with horizon and land-use change<\/td><td data-label=\"How it is reported\">Trend-aware extreme value models, scenario sets<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Source\">Human operations<\/td><td data-label=\"Typical size\">Reservoir rules and abstractions often undocumented<\/td><td data-label=\"How it is reported\">Stated assumptions, sensitivity runs<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><p class=\"nx-p\">A flow estimate is published with its range and the evidence label of each input. Return periods are reported with confidence intervals, and a design value is never quoted without the period of record it rests on.<\/p><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-uncertainty\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"water\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-8\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">07<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Uncertainty<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-8\" class=\"nx-section-title\">How uncertainty is reported.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ol class=\"nx-rows\"><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">01<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">State assumptions<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.<\/p><\/div><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">02<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Quantify where possible<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.<\/p><\/div><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">03<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Validate and compare<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.<\/p><\/div><\/li><li><span class=\"nx-eyebrow nx-index\">04<\/span><div><h3 class=\"nx-h4\">Publish limits<\/h3><p class=\"nx-p nx-mt-1\">What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.<\/p><\/div><\/li><\/ol><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-terms\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"climate\" data-tone=\"alt\" data-variant=\"stack\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-9\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">08<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Key terms<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-9\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Terms used on this page.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-table-wrap\"><table class=\"nx-table\" data-stack=\"true\"><thead><tr><th scope=\"col\">Term<\/th><th scope=\"col\">Definition<\/th><\/tr><\/thead><tbody><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Uncertainty quantification<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Sensitivity analysis<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">Repeating an analysis under different assumptions to show how much the result depends on them.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Model validation<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use.<\/td><\/tr><tr><td data-label=\"Term\">Hydrology and water science<\/td><td data-label=\"Definition\">Hydrology studies the movement, distribution and quality of water across the land surface, subsurface and atmosphere.<\/td><\/tr><\/tbody><\/table><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-sec-pg-sources\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"infrastructure\" data-variant=\"split\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-10\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">09<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Sources<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-10\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Where this page's references lead.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.<\/p><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><ul class=\"nx-list\" data-nav=\"true\"><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/www.ipcc.ch\/site\/assets\/uploads\/2018\/05\/uncertainty-guidance-note.pdf\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span>IPCC guidance note on consistent treatment of uncertainties<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/library.wmo.int\/idurl\/4\/39629\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span>Standardized Precipitation Index user guide (WMO-No. 1090)<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><li><a class=\"nx-link\" href=\"https:\/\/grdc.bafg.de\/\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noopener\"><span>Global Runoff Data Centre (WMO)<\/span><svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/li><\/ul><\/div><\/div><\/section><section id=\"nx-s-11-sec\" class=\"nx-section\" data-hue=\"water\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-s-11\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><div class=\"nx-section-head\"><div class=\"nx-eyebrow-row\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">10<\/span><span class=\"nx-rule\" aria-hidden=\"true\"><\/span><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Questions<\/span><\/div><h2 id=\"nx-s-11\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Questions and answers.<\/h2><\/div><div class=\"nx-section-body\"><div class=\"nx-faq\"><details><summary>Are the methods open?<\/summary><div class=\"nx-answer\">Method descriptions are public on the STEM Commons. Code and data follow their own licences and access terms, listed in the source register.<\/div><\/details><\/div><\/div><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-section\" data-tone=\"alt\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-rel-12\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Related<\/span><h2 id=\"nx-rel-12\" class=\"nx-h3 nx-mt-2\">Around Water Nexus.<\/h2><nav class=\"nx-related nx-mt-3\" aria-label=\"Related\"><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/research\/sources\/\">Source and data register <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/\">Water Nexus home <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/counterparts\/\">Counterparts across the Consortium <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/\">The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation home <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/trust\/\">GCRI governance and trust <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><\/nav><\/div><\/section><section class=\"nx-closing\" aria-labelledby=\"nx-close-13\"><div class=\"nx-container\"><span class=\"nx-eyebrow\">Water Nexus<\/span><h2 id=\"nx-close-13\" class=\"nx-section-title\">Bring your expertise to this field.<\/h2><p class=\"nx-lede\">The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.<\/p><div class=\"nx-actions\"><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"primary\" href=\"mailto:contact@therisk.global?subject=Water%20Nexus%3A%20Methods%20and%20uncertainty\">Write to the team <svg class=\"nx-arrow\" viewBox=\"0 0 16 16\" aria-hidden=\"true\" fill=\"none\" stroke=\"currentColor\" stroke-width=\"1.5\" stroke-linecap=\"round\" stroke-linejoin=\"round\"><path d=\"M3 8h10M9 4l4 4-4 4\"\/><\/svg><\/a><a class=\"nx-btn\" data-variant=\"secondary\" href=\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/contact\/\">See all contact routes<\/a><\/div><\/div><\/section><\/div><\/div><script class=\"_iub_cs_skip\">window.__nxMount ? window.__nxMount(document.currentScript) : null;<\/script>\n\n\n<script type=\"application\/ld+json\">{\"@context\":\"https:\/\/schema.org\",\"@graph\":[{\"@type\":\"FAQPage\",\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/research\/methods\/#faq\",\"isPartOf\":{\"@id\":\"https:\/\/therisk.global\/water-nexus\/research\/methods\/#webpage\"},\"inLanguage\":\"en\",\"mainEntity\":[{\"@type\":\"Question\",\"name\":\"Are the methods open?\",\"acceptedAnswer\":{\"@type\":\"Answer\",\"text\":\"Method descriptions are public on the STEM Commons. 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