Global Earth Observation Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Earth observation baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. WMO reports 1.43 °C above 1850 to 1900, Copernicus 1.47 °C.³⁴

   How warm was 2025?Reported

2. 4.75 mm a year in 2012 to 2025, up from 2.65 mm a year.³

   How fast is sea level rising?Reported

3. Yes. Nearly 80 PB online and more than 200 PB delivered in 2024 at one European service; 145 million Landsat downloads in fiscal 2025.⁹¹⁰

   Is data open and used?Reported

4. ESA members subscribed EUR 3.4 billion to the Earth Observation Programme in 2025.⁷

   Who pays for it?Reported

5. No flagship is guaranteed. NASA projects Terra, Aqua and Aura end of science in 2027 and 2028.¹²

   Are the long records safe?Reported

6. 119 countries report a system; small island developing States lag at 43%.²

   Is warning reaching people?Reported

7. ESA models about 54,000 objects larger than 10 cm and 1,200 intact re-entries in 2025.¹

   Is the orbital environment a risk?Reported

8. An observation gap that coincides with an extreme season. SCN-GS12-GAP-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

119 countries, or 60% of all countries, reported a multi-hazard early warning system in 2025, but only 43% of small island developing States did.

Warning depends on satellites, networks and models, and also on risk knowledge, dissemination and response. Mortality is nearly six times lower in countries with more comprehensive systems than in countries with limited capabilities, and Africa shows the greatest gain since 2015 (72% in comprehensiveness) yet the lowest scores². Observation gaps below the satellite layer limit what a warning can say¹⁶.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025. ECMWF, Reading, for the European Commission. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 23Environmental Defense Fund and MethaneSAT (eds.), MethaneSAT loses contact with satellite, project update of 1 July 2025. Environmental Defense Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 15NSIDC (ed.), User notice: SSMIS data processing to end by 30 June 2025, with update extending processing through 31 July 2025. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is Earth observation risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry Earth observation shocks into other systems?
• Which Earth observation capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five coupling chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Earth observation-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their Earth observation content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   EO → WAT → FOO

   Soil moisture and rainfall records feed crop condition reports.

   Reported monthly crop condition reports since 2016²¹

2. 02

   EO → BIO

   Forest and surface water change mapped from archives.

   Reported 30 m forest and surface water maps³²³³

3. 03

   EO → HLT

   Heat and hazard monitoring feeds warning systems.

   Reported 119 countries with systems²

4. 04

   INF → EO → CLI

   Loss of a mission breaks a long climate record.

   Inferred 2025 microwave and methane losses¹⁵²³

5. 05

   AIC → EO

   Data-driven models rely on archive depth and open access.

   Reported models trained on Landsat and Sentinel-2³⁰

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch (eds.), Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (with University of Maryland GLAD tree cover loss data and comparison with JRC and PRODES series). WRI, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 27ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s ensemble AI forecasts become operational (AIFS ENS), 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 23Environmental Defense Fund and MethaneSAT (eds.), MethaneSAT loses contact with satellite, project update of 1 July 2025. Environmental Defense Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 11Congressional Research Service (ed.), Landsat, What’s Next? In Focus IN12281, updated 16 June 2025. Congressional Research Service, Washington. Observation year 2025 (FY2026 request). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 21NASA Harvest (ed.), GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning Releases 100th Issue, 5 December 2024. NASA Harvest, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 32Hansen, M.C. et al., High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, Science 342(6160), 850 to 853, 2013 (journal record and summary opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2012 (study period 2000 to 2012). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 33Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2015 (study period 1984 to 2015). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 15NSIDC (ed.), User notice: SSMIS data processing to end by 30 June 2025, with update extending processing through 31 July 2025. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 30Szwarcman, D. et al., Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multi-Temporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications, arXiv preprint 2412.02732, December 2024 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

119 countries, or 60% of all countries, reported a multi-hazard early warning system in 2025, but only 43% of small island developing States did.

Implication

Warning depends on satellites, networks and models, and also on risk knowledge, dissemination and response. Mortality is nearly six times lower in countries with more comprehensive systems than in countries with limited capabilities, and Africa shows the greatest gain since 2015 (72% in comprehensiveness) yet the lowest scores². Observation gaps below the satellite layer limit what a warning can say¹⁶.

What would move it

The next status report, the 2027 target of the Early Warnings for All initiative, and the surface network data flow from Africa and small island developing States would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   WMO reports the 2025 global near-surface temperature at 1.43 ± 0.13 °C above the 1850 to 1900 average and places 2025 as the second or third warmest year; the Copernicus Climate Change Service reports 1.47 °C and the third warmest.³⁴

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   Global mean sea level rose at 4.75 mm a year in 2012 to 2025, against 2.65 mm a year in 1993 to 2011, and ocean heat content reached the highest level in the 66-year record in 2025.³

2.3Infrastructure

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-003

   ESA models about 54,000 objects larger than 10 cm in orbit, including about 9,300 active payloads, and about 1,200 intact objects re-entered in 2025.¹

2.4Data and digital

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-004

   The Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem held nearly 80 PB online in December 2024, delivered more than 200 PB in 2024 and grew its registered users from 84,000 to nearly 290,000.⁹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DAT-005

   The USGS Landsat archive recorded 145 million product downloads and 28 billion accesses through commercial cloud in fiscal year 2025, and Landsat 8 is projected to fall below 50% availability in 2030.¹⁰

2.5Governance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-006

   ESA members subscribed EUR 3.4 billion to the Earth Observation Programme at the November 2025 ministerial meeting, within a record EUR 22.3 billion in total.⁷

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008

   NASA projects end of science for Terra in February 2027, Aqua in September 2027 and Aura in August 2028, from fuel and power limits.¹²

2.6Finance

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007

   Institutional space budgets reached EUR 106 billion in 2023, with defence just above half for the first time; in the Earth observation downstream market, 62% of value came from services and 38% from data sales.²⁴

2.7Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

   119 countries, or 60%, reported a multi-hazard early warning system in 2025, but only 43% of small island developing States did, and mortality is nearly six times lower where systems are more comprehensive.²

2.8Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010

   Forests cover 4.14 billion hectares, or 32% of land, and tropical primary forest loss detected from satellite data fell 36% between 2024 and 2025 after a record fire year.⁶⁵

2.9AIC

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-AIC-011

   ECMWF took its data-driven forecasting system into operations on 25 February 2025, and its ensemble version is reported to run over 10 times faster with about 1,000 times less energy than the physics-based system, at lower resolution.²⁶²⁷

2.10Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is an observation gap that coincides with an extreme season in a region with thin in situ coverage. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025. ECMWF, Reading, for the European Commission. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 24ESA (ed.), The Space Economy in 2023, ESA space economy report, published December 2024 (title page not present in the extracted text; section 2 headed The Space Economy in 2023). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 6FAO (ed.), Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure, FAO report shows, release on the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 5World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch (eds.), Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (with University of Maryland GLAD tree cover loss data and comparison with JRC and PRODES series). WRI, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 27ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s ensemble AI forecasts become operational (AIFS ENS), 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through Earth observation, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries Earth observation risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on Earth observation, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 4Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025. ECMWF, Reading, for the European Commission. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 21NASA Harvest (ed.), GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning Releases 100th Issue, 5 December 2024. NASA Harvest, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 34WHO (ed.), Climate inaction is claiming millions of lives every year, warns new Lancet Countdown report, news release of 29 October 2025. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024 (deaths averaged over the series period). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 32Hansen, M.C. et al., High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, Science 342(6160), 850 to 853, 2013 (journal record and summary opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2012 (study period 2000 to 2012). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 5World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch (eds.), Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (with University of Maryland GLAD tree cover loss data and comparison with JRC and PRODES series). WRI, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 24ESA (ed.), The Space Economy in 2023, ESA space economy report, published December 2024 (title page not present in the extracted text; section 2 headed The Space Economy in 2023). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 18WMO (ed.), WMO Unified Data Policy Resolution (Res.1) of the Extraordinary World Meteorological Congress 2021, information page. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 30Szwarcman, D. et al., Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multi-Temporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications, arXiv preprint 2412.02732, December 2024 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 25European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335 final, transmitted to the Council on 26 June 2025 as document 10935/25. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 33Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2015 (study period 1984 to 2015). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 6FAO (ed.), Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure, FAO report shows, release on the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 29Brown, C.F. et al., AlphaEarth Foundations: An embedding field model for accurate and efficient global mapping from sparse label data, arXiv preprint 2507.22291, July 2025 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 31Lam, R. et al., Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting, Science 382(6677), 1416 to 1421, 2023 (journal record and abstract opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS12-INF-001

   Loss of long-record satellite observations

   Driver

   ageing flagships and uncertain funding¹²¹¹

   Exposure

   climate records, weather forecasts, land and ocean monitoring

   Vulnerability

   single-mission records; intercalibration needed between missions¹⁶

   Capacity

   Sentinel and Landsat series; new missions such as NISAR¹³¹⁴

   Cascade

   INF → CLI, FOO, HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS12-INF-002

   Crowded orbits and re-entry debris

   Driver

   growth in launches and constellations¹

   Exposure

   active payloads in low Earth orbit; ground observers

   Vulnerability

   about 54,000 objects larger than 10 cm; 1,200 intact re-entries in 2025¹

   Capacity

   mitigation guidelines; proposed common EU rules²⁵⁴⁴

   Cascade

   INF → DAT → HLT

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

3. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS12-DAT-003

   In situ gaps beneath the satellite layer

   Driver

   uneven surface and ocean networks¹⁶¹⁷

   Exposure

   Africa, South America, Southeast Asia, deep ocean and polar regions¹⁶

   Vulnerability

   short-term funding for many in situ series¹⁶

   Capacity

   basic observing network and financing facility¹⁷⁴³; Argo floats, with 757 carrying biogeochemical sensors in February 2025²²

   Cascade

   DAT → HLT, FOO, WAT

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS12-AIC-004

   Dependence on data-driven models and open archives

   Driver

   rapid adoption of foundation models and data-driven forecasts²⁶²⁹³⁰

   Exposure

   forecast services, mapping products, early warning

   Vulnerability

   validation outside training conditions is thin; lower resolution than physics-based ensembles²⁷

   Capacity

   physics-based systems kept in operation²⁶; open benchmarks

   Cascade

   AIC → HLT, FOO

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for Earth observation at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 11Congressional Research Service (ed.), Landsat, What’s Next? In Focus IN12281, updated 16 June 2025. Congressional Research Service, Washington. Observation year 2025 (FY2026 request). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 13NASA (ed.), NISAR mission page (launch 30 July 2025; joint mission with the Indian Space Research Organisation). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14ESA (ed.), Sentinel-1D reaches orbit on Ariane 6, 4 November 2025. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 25European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335 final, transmitted to the Council on 26 June 2025 as document 10935/25. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN COPUOS (ed.), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, 2019, named in the opened ESA report [1]; no figure is used. United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, Vienna. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 17WMO (ed.), Closing the gaps in the observing network (news article on the Global Basic Observing Network and the Systematic Observations Financing Facility). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO and SOFF (eds.), Global Basic Observing Network compliance monitoring and SOFF annual reporting, taken from search-result summaries; no figure is used. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 22US Argo Program (ed.), US Argo National Report for the Argo Steering Team meeting AST-26 (operational float counts as of February and April 2025). Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 29Brown, C.F. et al., AlphaEarth Foundations: An embedding field model for accurate and efficient global mapping from sparse label data, arXiv preprint 2507.22291, July 2025 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 30Szwarcman, D. et al., Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multi-Temporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications, arXiv preprint 2412.02732, December 2024 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 27ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s ensemble AI forecasts become operational (AIFS ENS), 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 15NSIDC (ed.), User notice: SSMIS data processing to end by 30 June 2025, with update extending processing through 31 July 2025. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 8ESA Council (ed.), Subscription to optional programmes at the CM25, ESA/C-M(2025)100, rev. 5, Paris, 1 December 2025. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 19GEO Secretariat (ed.), GEO-21 Info 1.8 (Rev1): New Members, Participating Organizations and Associates. Group on Earth Observations, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 18WMO (ed.), WMO Unified Data Policy Resolution (Res.1) of the Extraordinary World Meteorological Congress 2021, information page. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 31Lam, R. et al., Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting, Science 382(6677), 1416 to 1421, 2023 (journal record and abstract opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 32Hansen, M.C. et al., High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, Science 342(6160), 850 to 853, 2013 (journal record and summary opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2012 (study period 2000 to 2012). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 33Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2015 (study period 1984 to 2015). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS12-GAP-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

a flagship mission reaching end of life, or a loss of data flow, that coincides with an extreme heat or flood season in a region with thin in situ coverage

Analogues

the 2025 loss of MethaneSAT and the planned end of microwave data processing²³¹⁵

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   INF → EO

   a mission ends or a data flow stops; the record is broken

   2025

2. 2

   EO → CLI

   gaps in the climate and weather record affect initial conditions and trend analysis

   2025

3. 3

   EO → WAT

   flood and low-flow monitoring lose a sensor in the season it is needed

   to test

4. 4

   EO → FOO

   crop condition reports lose data in a stress year

   to test

5. 5

   EO → HLT

   heat and hazard warnings carry less precise information

   to test

6. 6

   EO → FIN

   insurers and public budgets face wider uncertainty

   to test

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS12-GAP-01 would travel through Global Earth Observation and Planetary Intelligence’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Earth Observation 2026, scenario SCN-GS12-GAP-01 (2026); Global Earth Observation 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 23Environmental Defense Fund and MethaneSAT (eds.), MethaneSAT loses contact with satellite, project update of 1 July 2025. Environmental Defense Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 15NSIDC (ed.), User notice: SSMIS data processing to end by 30 June 2025, with update extending processing through 31 July 2025. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Earth observation. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 Earth observation readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. Nexus standards drafts used for terms and hazards are cited as preparatory working draft (2026). The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers Earth observation assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the world’s Earth observation and planetary intelligence system and its couplings?

Sources searched

agency flagships; programme documents; peer-reviewed Earth observation literature; statistics

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 24ESA (ed.), The Space Economy in 2023, ESA space economy report, published December 2024 (title page not present in the extracted text; section 2 headed The Space Economy in 2023). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 18WMO (ed.), WMO Unified Data Policy Resolution (Res.1) of the Extraordinary World Meteorological Congress 2021, information page. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 25European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335 final, transmitted to the Council on 26 June 2025 as document 10935/25. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2021/696 establishing the Union Space Programme (including Copernicus), Official Journal of the European Union, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/138 laying down a list of specific high-value datasets and the arrangements for their publication and re-use, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 20CEOS (ed.), CEOS Analysis Ready Data, overview page. Committee on Earth Observation Satellites. Observation year 2026 (current page). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 19115-1:2014, Geographic information: Metadata, Part 1, fundamentals. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. The catalogue page returned an access error; cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN COPUOS (ed.), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, 2019, named in the opened ESA report [1]; no figure is used. United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, Vienna. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 28ECMWF (ed.), Third phase of Destination Earth confirmed, 1 February 2026. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: GCOS (ed.), The Status of the Global Climate Observing System 2021: The GCOS Status Report (GCOS-240). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Named in the opened summary of the 2022 plan [16]; no figure is used. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 32Hansen, M.C. et al., High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, Science 342(6160), 850 to 853, 2013 (journal record and summary opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2012 (study period 2000 to 2012). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 33Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2015 (study period 1984 to 2015). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 31Lam, R. et al., Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting, Science 382(6677), 1416 to 1421, 2023 (journal record and abstract opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 29Brown, C.F. et al., AlphaEarth Foundations: An embedding field model for accurate and efficient global mapping from sparse label data, arXiv preprint 2507.22291, July 2025 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 30Szwarcman, D. et al., Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multi-Temporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications, arXiv preprint 2412.02732, December 2024 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zhu et al., Benefits of the free and open Landsat data policy, Remote Sensing of Environment 224, 382 to 385, 2019. Elsevier, Amsterdam. Only a bibliographic record without abstract was read; no figure is used. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 4Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025. ECMWF, Reading, for the European Commission. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 6FAO (ed.), Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure, FAO report shows, release on the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. The page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lancet Countdown on health and climate change (eds.), The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet, October 2025; the figures used are taken from the WHO release [34], not from the report. Elsevier, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 11Congressional Research Service (ed.), Landsat, What’s Next? In Focus IN12281, updated 16 June 2025. Congressional Research Service, Washington. Observation year 2025 (FY2026 request). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 8ESA Council (ed.), Subscription to optional programmes at the CM25, ESA/C-M(2025)100, rev. 5, Paris, 1 December 2025. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), The Space Economy in Figures: Responding to Global Challenges. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2023. The pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 17WMO (ed.), Closing the gaps in the observing network (news article on the Global Basic Observing Network and the Systematic Observations Financing Facility). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO and SOFF (eds.), Global Basic Observing Network compliance monitoring and SOFF annual reporting, taken from search-result summaries; no figure is used. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 27ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s ensemble AI forecasts become operational (AIFS ENS), 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. O-01

   How would an observation gap that coincides with an extreme season travel through water, food and health at once?

   INI-GS12-GAP-01 · observation gap under extremes; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

2. O-02

   Which long records depend on a single mission, and when does each reach end of life?

   INI-GS12-REC-02 · record continuity register; first output: record and mission register.

3. O-03

   Where do in situ gaps limit the value of satellite products, and what would close them?

   INI-GS12-INS-03 · in situ gaps; first output: gap map by region.

4. O-04

   How reliable are data-driven Earth observation and forecast products outside their training conditions?

   INI-GS12-VAL-04 · validation of data-driven products; first output: benchmark protocol.

5. O-05

   Where does early warning reach people, and where does it stop at the national level?

   INI-GS12-EWS-05 · warning reach; first output: service-tier table.

6. O-06

   Which shared data hubs and ground stations lack operational contingency arrangements?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: arrangement overlay.

7. O-07

   What energy, water and carbon footprint does Earth observation data processing carry?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. O-08

   Which observing capabilities have been tested in a real loss, and which are only planned?

   Earth observation capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 Earth observation portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The Earth observation edition reads national Earth observation chapters, regional observing-network evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and no national Earth observation chapter is bound yet. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National Earth observation chapters

   observation and data chapter of each national edition

   PLANNED · further national baselines

2. 02

   Observing-network evidence

   shared in situ networks, satellite constellations and data hubs

   PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Earth observation sector model

   the sensing layer of the systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Global and strategic links

   GLB · SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems · SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Global Earth Observation Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the Earth observation candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-GS12-2027-01 · Observation gap Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 23Environmental Defense Fund and MethaneSAT (eds.), MethaneSAT loses contact with satellite, project update of 1 July 2025. Environmental Defense Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 15NSIDC (ed.), User notice: SSMIS data processing to end by 30 June 2025, with update extending processing through 31 July 2025. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 27ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s ensemble AI forecasts become operational (AIFS ENS), 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Earth observation and water

Water is observed from space and from the ground. Surface extent, rainfall, snow, ice, ocean heat and sea level are tracked as long records, and the records are only as good as the missions that carry them.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.2Earth observation and food

Food security monitoring uses satellite vegetation and rainfall data with partner assessments. The consensus method has run monthly for crops at risk since 2016.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.3Earth observation and health

Early warning, heat exposure and air quality monitoring depend on observation, models and delivery. Coverage is rising, and the gap between countries with and without comprehensive systems is large.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.4Earth observation and nature

Forests, surface water and methane sources are observed from space. Satellite-based records show where loss slowed in 2025 and where fire raised it.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.5Observation continuity, security and extremes

The observing system has three exposed channels: ageing sensors, thin ground networks and crowded orbits. The 2025 and 2026 evidence shows each of them.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-01 Water
• GS-03 Food and Agrifood Systems
• GS-04 Health and One Health
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 33Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2015 (study period 1984 to 2015). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 21NASA Harvest (ed.), GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning Releases 100th Issue, 5 December 2024. NASA Harvest, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 5World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch (eds.), Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (with University of Maryland GLAD tree cover loss data and comparison with JRC and PRODES series). WRI, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 34WHO (ed.), Climate inaction is claiming millions of lives every year, warns new Lancet Countdown report, news release of 29 October 2025. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024 (deaths averaged over the series period). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 6FAO (ed.), Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure, FAO report shows, release on the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 32Hansen, M.C. et al., High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, Science 342(6160), 850 to 853, 2013 (journal record and summary opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2012 (study period 2000 to 2012). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 23Environmental Defense Fund and MethaneSAT (eds.), MethaneSAT loses contact with satellite, project update of 1 July 2025. Environmental Defense Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 11Congressional Research Service (ed.), Landsat, What’s Next? In Focus IN12281, updated 16 June 2025. Congressional Research Service, Washington. Observation year 2025 (FY2026 request). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 17WMO (ed.), Closing the gaps in the observing network (news article on the Global Basic Observing Network and the Systematic Observations Financing Facility). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Earth Observation Sector Model v0

Model ID

MDL-GS12-EO · v0.1

Purpose

represent the global Earth observation system and its couplings to water, food, health and biodiversity

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

45 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 Earth observation annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• WMO³: full report tables behind the one-page summary
• ESA¹: mission-class counts and active payload definitions
• USGS¹⁰: archive access by user class
• GCOS¹⁶: observing gap tables by region

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: multi-hazard early warning coverage

Construct

share of countries that report an existing multi-hazard early warning system

Unit

share and number of countries

Method

country reports compiled by UNDRR and WMO against Sendai Framework monitoring

Source

UNDRR and WMO status report, WMO release²

Uncertainty

self-reported by countries

Known limits

presence of a system does not measure comprehensiveness or whether people are reached

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 11Congressional Research Service (ed.), Landsat, What’s Next? In Focus IN12281, updated 16 June 2025. Congressional Research Service, Washington. Observation year 2025 (FY2026 request). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: NASA Earthdata (ed.), Status update on DMSP data products. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. The page returned an access error; later status is unknown in this edition. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO and SOFF (eds.), Global Basic Observing Network compliance monitoring and SOFF annual reporting, taken from search-result summaries; no figure is used. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), The Space Economy in Figures: Responding to Global Challenges. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2023. The pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. The page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 29Brown, C.F. et al., AlphaEarth Foundations: An embedding field model for accurate and efficient global mapping from sparse label data, arXiv preprint 2507.22291, July 2025 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 30Szwarcman, D. et al., Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multi-Temporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications, arXiv preprint 2412.02732, December 2024 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 24ESA (ed.), The Space Economy in 2023, ESA space economy report, published December 2024 (title page not present in the extracted text; section 2 headed The Space Economy in 2023). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• CLI
• INF
• DAT
• FIN
• HLT
• BIO
• AIC
• GOV
• WAT
• FOO

B.3Regional reading: Earth observation across ten clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Observing card: Copernicus Sentinel constellation and data ecosystem

• constellation
• open data
• cloud archive
• Europe

Systems in view

climate, land, ocean, hazards, data

Defining events

Sentinel-1D reached orbit on 4 November 2025¹⁴

Couplings

EO → CLI records; EO → FOO crop monitoring; EO → HLT warning

Capability evidence

nearly 80 PB online and more than 200 PB delivered in 2024⁹

Gaps

2025 use statistics; ground segment contingency

Agenda items

O-02 · O-03

B.5How countries appear in the Earth observation edition

Countries enter the Earth observation edition through the observation and data chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-SECTOR-EO-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025. ECMWF, Reading, for the European Commission. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 24ESA (ed.), The Space Economy in 2023, ESA space economy report, published December 2024 (title page not present in the extracted text; section 2 headed The Space Economy in 2023). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 6FAO (ed.), Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure, FAO report shows, release on the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 19GEO Secretariat (ed.), GEO-21 Info 1.8 (Rev1): New Members, Participating Organizations and Associates. Group on Earth Observations, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 5World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch (eds.), Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (with University of Maryland GLAD tree cover loss data and comparison with JRC and PRODES series). WRI, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 8ESA Council (ed.), Subscription to optional programmes at the CM25, ESA/C-M(2025)100, rev. 5, Paris, 1 December 2025. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 13NASA (ed.), NISAR mission page (launch 30 July 2025; joint mission with the Indian Space Research Organisation). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 14ESA (ed.), Sentinel-1D reaches orbit on Ariane 6, 4 November 2025. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.145 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1ESA Space Debris Office (ed.), ESA’s Annual Space Environment Report, issue 10.0, 1 May 2026. European Space Agency, ESOC, Darmstadt. Observation year 2025 (modelled population at reference epoch August 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025, as reported in the WMO press release of 12 November 2025, Early warning systems reach new heights, but critical gaps jeopardise global progress (the report itself was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, one-page summary of the report released 23 March 2026. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025 (greenhouse gases 2024). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4Copernicus Climate Change Service (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025. ECMWF, Reading, for the European Commission. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
5. 5World Resources Institute and Global Forest Watch (eds.), Global Forest Watch’s 2025 Tree Cover Loss Data Explained (with University of Maryland GLAD tree cover loss data and comparison with JRC and PRODES series). WRI, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
6. 6FAO (ed.), Global deforestation slows, but forests remain under pressure, FAO report shows, release on the Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025, 21 October 2025. Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7ESA (ed.), FutureEO after CM25 (Floberghagen), presentation on the outcome of the November 2025 ministerial meeting for the Earth Observation Programme. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
8. 8ESA Council (ed.), Subscription to optional programmes at the CM25, ESA/C-M(2025)100, rev. 5, Paris, 1 December 2025. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
9. 9Copernicus Data Space Ecosystem (ed.), Annual Report 2024. European Space Agency and consortium partners, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10USGS National Land Imaging Program (ed.), NLI Update to the National Geospatial Advisory Committee, March and April 2026 (fiscal year 2025 archive statistics; Landsat 8 and 9 status). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11Congressional Research Service (ed.), Landsat, What’s Next? In Focus IN12281, updated 16 June 2025. Congressional Research Service, Washington. Observation year 2025 (FY2026 request). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12NASA (ed.), Terra: The End of an Era (with end-of-science projections for Terra, Aqua and Aura). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8
13. 13NASA (ed.), NISAR mission page (launch 30 July 2025; joint mission with the Indian Space Research Organisation). National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
14. 14ESA (ed.), Sentinel-1D reaches orbit on Ariane 6, 4 November 2025. European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
15. 15NSIDC (ed.), User notice: SSMIS data processing to end by 30 June 2025, with update extending processing through 31 July 2025. National Snow and Ice Data Center, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 7
16. 16GCOS (ed.), The 2022 GCOS Implementation Plan (GCOS-244), abstract and summary of themes, as held in the AWI EPIC repository (the full plan was not opened). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
17. 17WMO (ed.), Closing the gaps in the observing network (news article on the Global Basic Observing Network and the Systematic Observations Financing Facility). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year not stated on the page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
18. 18WMO (ed.), WMO Unified Data Policy Resolution (Res.1) of the Extraordinary World Meteorological Congress 2021, information page. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
19. 19GEO Secretariat (ed.), GEO-21 Info 1.8 (Rev1): New Members, Participating Organizations and Associates. Group on Earth Observations, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
20. 20CEOS (ed.), CEOS Analysis Ready Data, overview page. Committee on Earth Observation Satellites. Observation year 2026 (current page). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
21. 21NASA Harvest (ed.), GEOGLAM Crop Monitor for Early Warning Releases 100th Issue, 5 December 2024. NASA Harvest, College Park. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 8
22. 22US Argo Program (ed.), US Argo National Report for the Argo Steering Team meeting AST-26 (operational float counts as of February and April 2025). Scripps Institution of Oceanography, La Jolla. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
23. 23Environmental Defense Fund and MethaneSAT (eds.), MethaneSAT loses contact with satellite, project update of 1 July 2025. Environmental Defense Fund, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
24. 24ESA (ed.), The Space Economy in 2023, ESA space economy report, published December 2024 (title page not present in the extracted text; section 2 headed The Space Economy in 2023). European Space Agency, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
25. 25European Commission (ed.), Proposal for a Regulation on the safety, resilience and sustainability of space activities in the Union (EU Space Act), COM(2025) 335 final, transmitted to the Council on 26 June 2025 as document 10935/25. Council of the European Union, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
26. 26ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s AI forecasts become operational, 25 February 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7
27. 27ECMWF (ed.), ECMWF’s ensemble AI forecasts become operational (AIFS ENS), 2025. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
28. 28ECMWF (ed.), Third phase of Destination Earth confirmed, 1 February 2026. European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts, Reading. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
29. 29Brown, C.F. et al., AlphaEarth Foundations: An embedding field model for accurate and efficient global mapping from sparse label data, arXiv preprint 2507.22291, July 2025 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
30. 30Szwarcman, D. et al., Prithvi-EO-2.0: A Versatile Multi-Temporal Foundation Model for Earth Observation Applications, arXiv preprint 2412.02732, December 2024 (abstract opened; not peer reviewed). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
31. 31Lam, R. et al., Learning skillful medium-range global weather forecasting, Science 382(6677), 1416 to 1421, 2023 (journal record and abstract opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
32. 32Hansen, M.C. et al., High-Resolution Global Maps of 21st-Century Forest Cover Change, Science 342(6160), 850 to 853, 2013 (journal record and summary opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2012 (study period 2000 to 2012). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
33. 33Pekel, J.-F. et al., High-resolution mapping of global surface water and its long-term changes, Nature 540, 418 to 422, 2016. Springer Nature, London. Observation year 2015 (study period 1984 to 2015). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
34. 34WHO (ed.), Climate inaction is claiming millions of lives every year, warns new Lancet Countdown report, news release of 29 October 2025. World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024 (deaths averaged over the series period). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. The page returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), The Space Economy in Figures: Responding to Global Challenges. OECD Publishing, Paris, 2023. The pages returned an access error and no figure is used. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: GCOS (ed.), The Status of the Global Climate Observing System 2021: The GCOS Status Report (GCOS-240). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Named in the opened summary of the 2022 plan [16]; no figure is used. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: NASA Earthdata (ed.), Status update on DMSP data products. National Aeronautics and Space Administration, Washington. The page returned an access error; later status is unknown in this edition. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zhu et al., Benefits of the free and open Landsat data policy, Remote Sensing of Environment 224, 382 to 385, 2019. Elsevier, Amsterdam. Only a bibliographic record without abstract was read; no figure is used. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 19115-1:2014, Geographic information: Metadata, Part 1, fundamentals. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. The catalogue page returned an access error; cited from memory. Observation year 2014. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2021/696 establishing the Union Space Programme (including Copernicus), Official Journal of the European Union, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Commission Implementing Regulation (EU) 2023/138 laying down a list of specific high-value datasets and the arrangements for their publication and re-use, Official Journal of the European Union, 2023, cited from memory. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: WMO and SOFF (eds.), Global Basic Observing Network compliance monitoring and SOFF annual reporting, taken from search-result summaries; no figure is used. World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: UN COPUOS (ed.), Guidelines for the Long-term Sustainability of Outer Space Activities, 2019, named in the opened ESA report [1]; no figure is used. United Nations Office for Outer Space Affairs, Vienna. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lancet Countdown on health and climate change (eds.), The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet, October 2025; the figures used are taken from the WHO release [34], not from the report. Elsevier, London. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version