ASEAN Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of ASEAN’s Interdependent Systems.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the ASEAN baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. The registry names Indonesia and Singapore. The association has eleven member states, read here as a reference group.²⁶

   Who is in the region?Reported

2. About 700.3 million people and US$4.27 trillion of output in 2025, as Nexus sums of national series.¹²

   How big is the region?Estimated

3. A magnitude 7.7 earthquake in 2025 killed at least 3,791 people in Myanmar; floods in Viet Nam killed at least 200.¹⁶¹⁷

   What are recent hazards?Reported

4. Southern ASEAN was raised to Level 3 on 26 August 2026.⁴⁸

   What is the haze position?Reported

5. Fossil fuels supplied 85.1% of Indonesia’s electricity in 2024; hydropower supplied 75.5% in Lao PDR.⁸

   How is electricity supplied?Reported

6. Fine-particle exposure was highest in Myanmar at 35.1 µg/m³ in 2023.⁶

   Who is exposed to poor air?Reported

7. Intra-ASEAN trade and investment series are not bound in this edition.³⁰

   How much do member states trade in the region?Not bound

8. Fire haze, urban heat and power demand coinciding across the southern archipelago. SCN-ASN-HAZE-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

The magnitude 7.7 earthquake near Mandalay on 28 March 2025 killed at least 3,791 people in Myanmar and at least 63 in Thailand, injured at least 5,106 in Myanmar and damaged an estimated 55,000 homes, with damage valued at US$1.9 billion.

A single rupture of about 500 km on the Sagaing Fault was felt across four countries. Health services, housing, power and water failed in Myanmar, and building damage reached Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City. Response and insurance therefore need to be read across borders¹⁷.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 26Viet Nam News (ed.), ASEAN Summit 47: Timor-Leste officially becomes ASEAN’s 11th member (news report, 26 October 2025). Viet Nam News Agency, Ha Noi. Observation year 2025. A news report, used for the admission date only. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP at current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), eleven ASEAN states (source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN Secretariat (ed.), ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2023 (the statistics page returned no content; named only as the series that would hold trade and investment values). ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is ASEAN’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Member system cards
• Shared basins and grids
• Hub list
• Regional pathway
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The ASEAN matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → HLT

   Fire smoke raises fine-particle exposure and loads health services.

   Reported haze alert Level 3 on 26 August 2026⁴⁸; exposure⁶

2. 02

   CLI → INF → FIN

   An earthquake damages housing and lifelines and the loss falls on households, insurers and budgets.

   Inferred earthquake 2025¹⁷; loss series not bound

3. 03

   CLI → WAT → ENE

   Flow variation on shared rivers reaches hydropower and navigation.

   Inferred hydropower shares⁸; no event bound

4. 04

   TRD → ENE → FIN

   A fuel supply or price change reaches power systems that rely on coal and gas.

   Inferred electricity mixes⁸; outlook¹⁸; no event bound

5. 05

   CLI → WAT → FOO

   Flood or drought reaches rice and staple crops.

   Inferred Viet Nam floods 2025¹⁶; staple series not bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP at current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), eleven ASEAN states (source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), cereal yield, agricultural land, agriculture value added and employment in agriculture (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2025 (employment). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 27Mekong River Commission (ed.), About the Mekong River Commission (page opened: established in 1995 on the Mekong Agreement; members Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

The magnitude 7.7 earthquake near Mandalay on 28 March 2025 killed at least 3,791 people in Myanmar and at least 63 in Thailand, injured at least 5,106 in Myanmar and damaged an estimated 55,000 homes, with damage valued at US$1.9 billion.

Implication

A single rupture of about 500 km on the Sagaing Fault was felt across four countries. Health services, housing, power and water failed in Myanmar, and building damage reached Bangkok and Ho Chi Minh City. Response and insurance therefore need to be read across borders¹⁷.

What would move it

Reconstruction progress, the AHA Centre’s response records and any member-level loss series would each move this finding. Losses by member are not bound²¹.

2.2Systemic

1. EstimatedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-001

   The eleven ASEAN member states had about 700.3 million people in 2025 and a combined output of about US$4.27 trillion at current prices; Indonesia held 40.8% of the people and 33.9% of the output.¹²²⁶

2. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a strong dry season in which fire haze, urban heat and power demand coincide across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait. §9.3

2.3Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   Asia’s 2025 mean temperature was 0.96 °C above the 1991–2020 average, marine heatwaves covered more than 10 million km² of ocean in July to September, and prolonged flooding in Viet Nam caused at least 200 deaths and US$1.9 billion of losses.¹⁶

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   The magnitude 7.7 earthquake near Mandalay on 28 March 2025 killed at least 3,791 people in Myanmar and at least 63 in Thailand, with damage estimated at US$1.9 billion.¹⁷

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

   Cyclone Senyar, formed in the Malacca Strait in November 2025, brought severe flooding to parts of Indonesia, Thailand and Malaysia; an interim Indonesian count stood at 174 deaths in Aceh, North Sumatra and West Sumatra.¹⁶²⁵

4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

   The haze alert for southern ASEAN was raised to Level 3 on 26 August 2026, after 287 and 190 hotspots in Kalimantan and 65 and 81 in Sumatra on 24 and 25 August, and Sumatra recorded its highest July hotspot count in five years in 2025.⁴⁸²³

5. EstimatedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

   The eleven states emitted about 3,228 Mt CO₂e excluding land use in 2024; Indonesia emitted 41.0%, Viet Nam 18.1% and Thailand 13.1%.⁵

2.4Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-HLT-006

   Fine-particle exposure in 2023 ranged from 7.6 µg/m³ in Brunei Darussalam to 35.1 µg/m³ in Myanmar, and air-pollution deaths in 2019 reached 202.8 per 100,000 in the Philippines.⁶¹²

2.5Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007

   In 2024 fossil fuels supplied 85.1% of Indonesia’s electricity and 70.5% came from coal, while renewables supplied 15.6% of the region’s primary energy in 2022 against a 23% target for 2025.⁸¹⁸

2.6Water

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-WAT-009

   Renewable internal freshwater was 106 m³ per person in Singapore and 25,190 m³ in Lao PDR in 2022, and 30.5% of Indonesians used safely managed drinking water in 2024.¹⁰¹³

2.7Food

1. EstimatedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-FOO-010

   Ten reporting states produced about 234.2 Mt of cereals in 2024, and agriculture employed 68.6% of workers in Lao PDR and 45.0% in Myanmar in 2025.¹¹

2.8Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   Forest covered 50.7% of Indonesia’s land in 2024 and terrestrial protected areas covered from 4.6% of land in Singapore to 39.9% in Brunei Darussalam in 2025.⁹

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP at current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), eleven ASEAN states (source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 26Viet Nam News (ed.), ASEAN Summit 47: Timor-Leste officially becomes ASEAN’s 11th member (news report, 26 October 2025). Viet Nam News Agency, Ha Noi. Observation year 2025. A news report, used for the admission date only. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting (SH.STA.STNT.ZS), under-five mortality (SH.DYN.MORT), tuberculosis incidence (SH.TBS.INCD), current health expenditure (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS) and mortality attributed to air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2019 (air pollution), 2023 (health expenditure) and 2024 (mortality, tuberculosis); stunting years differ by state, 2000 to 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS) and safely managed sanitation services (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), cereal yield, agricultural land, agriculture value added and employment in agriculture (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2025 (employment). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS) and safely managed sanitation services (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), cereal yield, agricultural land, agriculture value added and employment in agriculture (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2025 (employment). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 27Mekong River Commission (ed.), About the Mekong River Commission (page opened: established in 1995 on the Mekong Agreement; members Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting (SH.STA.STNT.ZS), under-five mortality (SH.DYN.MORT), tuberculosis incidence (SH.TBS.INCD), current health expenditure (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS) and mortality attributed to air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2019 (air pollution), 2023 (health expenditure) and 2024 (mortality, tuberculosis); stunting years differ by state, 2000 to 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 4United Nations Development Programme (ed.), Human Development Report 2025: composite indices time series (Human Development Index, life expectancy, schooling, gross national income per capita, 2023 values for the ASEAN states). UNDP, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), population aged 65 and above, population density, population growth and urban population living in slums, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (2022 for slums, 2024 for density). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, 2002. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response, 2005. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2005. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), Charter of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 2007. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter on Asia. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ASN-CLI-001

   Cross-border flood and storm season

   Driver

   monsoon rainfall and tropical cyclones

   Exposure

   river corridors, coastal cities and delta farmland

   Vulnerability

   flood defences and drainage not bound

   Capacity

   AHA Centre coordination; documented²¹

   Cascade

   CLI → INF, FIN, HLT

   Horizon

   annual

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ASN-CLI-002

   Fire haze in a dry season

   Driver

   dry weather and peat and forest fires

   Exposure

   cities and rural areas downwind of the fires

   Vulnerability

   smoke exposure by member not bound

   Capacity

   regional alert system and haze agreement⁴⁸³¹; performance not bound

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT → ENE peak

   Horizon

   seasonal

3. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-ASN-ENE-003

   Fuel and grid stress in coal- and gas-reliant systems

   Driver

   price spike, supply change or heat-driven demand

   Exposure

   power, industry and cooling

   Vulnerability

   cross-border flows and fuel stocks not bound

   Capacity

   energy centre and grid programme exist²⁰; performance not bound

   Cascade

   TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4. ReportedEQL 4RSK-ASN-CLI-004

   Earthquake and building damage across borders

   Driver

   strike-slip rupture on a plate boundary

   Exposure

   cities with high-rise buildings and weak housing stock

   Vulnerability

   building condition not bound

   Capacity

   disaster response exercises held²¹; field performance not bound

   Cascade

   CLI → INF → HLT, FIN

   Horizon

   event-driven

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, 2002. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), Home page and publications list (9th ASEAN Energy Outlook listed for October 2026; contents not read). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (ed.), Paris Agreement, 2015. UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response, 2005. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2005. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter on Asia. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 27Mekong River Commission (ed.), About the Mekong River Commission (page opened: established in 1995 on the Mekong Agreement; members Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-ASN-HAZE-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

an extended dry season with widespread fires, high urban heat and high power demand

Analogues

haze alerts of July 2025 and August 2026⁴⁸²³; fine-particle exposure⁶; earthquake lifeline failure for cascading infrastructure effects¹⁷

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → HLT

   smoke raises fine-particle exposure and clinic demand downwind of the fires

   haze 2025 and 2026⁴⁸²³

2. 2

   CLI → ENE

   heat raises cooling demand while smoke reduces solar output

   no analogue bound

3. 3

   ENE → INF

   peak demand meets constrained fuel and grid capacity

   no analogue bound

4. 4

   INF → all

   a power or water failure spreads to services

   earthquake 2025¹⁷

5. 5

   HLT → FIN

   losses fall on households, insurers and budgets

   loss series not bound

6. 6

   FIN → recovery

   rebuilding slows where cover is thin

   loss series not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-ASN-HAZE-01 would travel through ASEAN’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: ASEAN 2026, scenario SCN-ASN-HAZE-01 (2026); ASEAN 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for ASEAN. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about ASEAN’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, 2002. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response, 2005. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2005. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), Charter of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 2007. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Agreement on the Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong River Basin, 1995 (named on the commission page opened [27]; text not opened). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 1995. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (ed.), Paris Agreement, 2015. UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 26Viet Nam News (ed.), ASEAN Summit 47: Timor-Leste officially becomes ASEAN’s 11th member (news report, 26 October 2025). Viet Nam News Agency, Ha Noi. Observation year 2025. A news report, used for the admission date only. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), Home page and publications list (9th ASEAN Energy Outlook listed for October 2026; contents not read). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter on Asia. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 19ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), ACE to guide regional energy transition through the launch of the 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (press release, 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 24ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for December 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024 (page refused). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP at current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), eleven ASEAN states (source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook, October 2026: real GDP growth, consumer price inflation, GDP in US dollars and current account balance, DataMapper series for the ASEAN states (2025 estimates and 2026 and 2027 projections). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 4United Nations Development Programme (ed.), Human Development Report 2025: composite indices time series (Human Development Index, life expectancy, schooling, gross national income per capita, 2023 values for the ASEAN states). UNDP, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable energy consumption share of final energy (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS) and renewable electricity output share (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021 (2022 for Lao PDR and Timor-Leste final energy). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: poverty headcount at the international line (SI.POV.DDAY) and prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (undernourishment) and 2017 to 2025 (poverty, varies by state). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN, third edition (page refused). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN Secretariat (ed.), ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2023 (the statistics page returned no content; named only as the series that would hold trade and investment values). ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Mekong River Basin State of the Basin Report 2023 (dry-season share of flow at Chiang Saen taken from a search summary). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting (SH.STA.STNT.ZS), under-five mortality (SH.DYN.MORT), tuberculosis incidence (SH.TBS.INCD), current health expenditure (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS) and mortality attributed to air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2019 (air pollution), 2023 (health expenditure) and 2024 (mortality, tuberculosis); stunting years differ by state, 2000 to 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a strong dry season load air quality, health services and power systems across the southern archipelago and the Malacca Strait?

   INI-ASN-CLI-01 · compound dry season; first output: dependency graph for the southern airshed.

2. A-02

   How is the energy transition proceeding in systems that still rely on coal and gas?

   INI-ASN-ENE-02 · energy transition and supply; first output: power-mix and capacity register.

3. A-03

   How do flows on the Mekong reach farming, fisheries and power?

   INI-ASN-WAT-03 · shared rivers; first output: basin performance note for the Lower Mekong.

4. A-04

   How much of the fine-particle burden comes from smoke, and how many deaths follow?

   INI-ASN-HLT-04 · haze and health; first output: attribution baseline for two members.

5. A-05

   Where do flood and earthquake losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

   INI-ASN-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member loss table.

6. A-06

   How are forests and coastal ecosystems changing, and how is condition measured across members?

   INI-ASN-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

7. A-07

   How exposed are rice and staple supplies to concurrent drought, heat and price shocks?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The ASEAN regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read ASEAN as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   National Foundries

   continuous national evidence environments

   PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

2. 02

   National Models and Portfolios

   each country as a system of systems

   CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

3. 03

   Quarterly national reports

   State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

   BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

4. 04

   Regional aggregation

   ASEAN as one of ten regional clusters

   THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

5. 05

   Global sector and strategic models

   GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

   49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

6. 06

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

7. 07

   Global Report

   this series

   BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-ASN-2027-01 · Smoke, heat and power Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The member editions named in the series registry, Indonesia and Singapore, read side by side on the same indicators. The other nine member states of the association are a reference group: they have no edition in the registry and are never joined to the region on a code alone.

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared seas, rivers, an airshed and power links carry risk across member borders. This chapter names each system, the states involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs

Singapore

Desks with a remit

GCRI · GRF · GRX

Registry record

NR-REGIONAL-ASN-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0

What a hub does in this series

• Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
• Hub contact points are not named at baseline
• The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read ASEAN as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP at current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), eleven ASEAN states (source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS) and safely managed sanitation services (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 26Viet Nam News (ed.), ASEAN Summit 47: Timor-Leste officially becomes ASEAN’s 11th member (news report, 26 October 2025). Viet Nam News Agency, Ha Noi. Observation year 2025. A news report, used for the admission date only. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 27Mekong River Commission (ed.), About the Mekong River Commission (page opened: established in 1995 on the Mekong Agreement; members Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Mekong River Basin State of the Basin Report 2023 (dry-season share of flow at Chiang Saen taken from a search summary). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), Home page and publications list (9th ASEAN Energy Outlook listed for October 2026; contents not read). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-ASN-REGIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent ASEAN as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-REG-ASN-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-REG-ASN-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• 9th ASEAN Energy Outlook²⁰ : regional capacity, mix and scenarios
• ASEAN statistical series³⁰ : trade, investment and food trade
• Mekong River Commission³⁵ : flow and fisheries indicators
• Reports Foundational Edition⁴⁵ and the global baseline⁴⁶ : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use

Construct

annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

calendar year, AR5 global warming potentials

Source

World Bank greenhouse gas series⁵

Revision

revised by the issuer; not tracked here

Known limits

omits land-use emissions, which national inventories report separately

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 24ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for December 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), Home page and publications list (9th ASEAN Energy Outlook listed for October 2026; contents not read). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN, third edition (page refused). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN Secretariat (ed.), ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2023 (the statistics page returned no content; named only as the series that would hold trade and investment values). ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Mekong River Basin State of the Basin Report 2023 (dry-season share of flow at Chiang Saen taken from a search summary). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used by the generator as the structural base; not read by the drafting desk). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Regional source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading: ASEAN by member country

Map plates for every member country follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form for the 2 member countries named in the series registry.

Selected populations, emissions and output¹²⁵

B.4Atlas card: Southern ASEAN haze airshed

• airshed
• shared atmosphere
• fire and smoke
• members: Indonesia and Singapore

Systems in view

health, energy and water

Defining instruments

ASEAN haze agreement³¹; regional alert scale⁴⁸

Couplings

CLI → HLT; CLI → ENE

Capability evidence

a regional meteorological centre issues alert levels⁴⁸; performance not bound

Gaps

hotspot counts, daily smoke readings and hospital admissions by member

Agenda items

A-01 · A-04

B.5ASEAN system card

The card through which ASEAN appears in the global edition and in the sector series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

two registry members within an association of eleven states sharing seas, rivers and an airshed²⁸

Population

700.3 million in the eleven states (2025)¹; Indonesia 285.7 million; Singapore 6.1 million

Output

US$4.27 trillion at current prices in the eleven states (2025)²

Hazard

earthquake of March 2025 killed at least 3,791 people in Myanmar¹⁷

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-REG-ASN-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4United Nations Development Programme (ed.), Human Development Report 2025: composite indices time series (Human Development Index, life expectancy, schooling, gross national income per capita, 2023 values for the ASEAN states). UNDP, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP at current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), eleven ASEAN states (source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook, October 2026: real GDP growth, consumer price inflation, GDP in US dollars and current account balance, DataMapper series for the ASEAN states (2025 estimates and 2026 and 2027 projections). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), cereal yield, agricultural land, agriculture value added and employment in agriculture (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2025 (employment). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), Home page and publications list (9th ASEAN Energy Outlook listed for October 2026; contents not read). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN Secretariat (ed.), ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2023 (the statistics page returned no content; named only as the series that would hold trade and investment values). ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Mekong River Basin State of the Basin Report 2023 (dry-season share of flow at Chiang Saen taken from a search summary). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 29POST-CLOSE, context only: Reports series (ed.), Editorial programme, 3 November 2026 (evidence rules and copy standard). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable energy consumption share of final energy (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS) and renewable electricity output share (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021 (2022 for Lao PDR and Timor-Leste final energy). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 24ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for December 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting (SH.STA.STNT.ZS), under-five mortality (SH.DYN.MORT), tuberculosis incidence (SH.TBS.INCD), current health expenditure (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS) and mortality attributed to air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2019 (air pollution), 2023 (health expenditure) and 2024 (mortality, tuberculosis); stunting years differ by state, 2000 to 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS) and safely managed sanitation services (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: poverty headcount at the international line (SI.POV.DDAY) and prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (undernourishment) and 2017 to 2025 (poverty, varies by state). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Editions 2026 for Indonesia and Singapore (draft packs in preparation; no value taken from them). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), population aged 65 and above, population density, population growth and urban population living in slums, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (2022 for slums, 2024 for density). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, 2002. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 28Reports series (ed.), Series registry of subjects (federation registry; entries for REG-ASN, IDN and SGP read). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Brunei Darussalam, Cambodia, Indonesia, Lao PDR, Malaysia, Myanmar, Philippines, Singapore, Thailand, Timor-Leste and Viet Nam (data service, source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP at current US dollars (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), GDP growth (NY.GDP.MKTP.KD.ZG) and GDP per capita (NY.GDP.PCAP.CD), eleven ASEAN states (source updated 8 October 2026). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: International Monetary Fund (ed.), World Economic Outlook, October 2026: real GDP growth, consumer price inflation, GDP in US dollars and current account balance, DataMapper series for the ASEAN states (2025 estimates and 2026 and 2027 projections). IMF, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
4. 4United Nations Development Programme (ed.), Human Development Report 2025: composite indices time series (Human Development Index, life expectancy, schooling, gross national income per capita, 2023 values for the ASEAN states). UNDP, New York. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, AR5 basis (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), eleven ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6
7. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable energy consumption share of final energy (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS) and renewable electricity output share (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2021 (2022 for Lao PDR and Timor-Leste final energy). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from fossil fuels (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS), coal (EG.ELC.COAL.ZS) and hydroelectric sources (EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), access to electricity (EG.ELC.ACCS.ZS) and electric power consumption per capita, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (2021 for Brunei Darussalam, Singapore and Timor-Leste hydropower and Timor-Leste fossil and coal). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), terrestrial protected areas (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS) and total protected areas (ER.PTD.TOTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (forest) and 2025 (protected areas). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC) and freshwater withdrawals as a share of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
11. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), cereal yield, agricultural land, agriculture value added and employment in agriculture (SL.AGR.EMPL.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (production) and 2025 (employment). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3
12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: prevalence of stunting (SH.STA.STNT.ZS), under-five mortality (SH.DYN.MORT), tuberculosis incidence (SH.TBS.INCD), current health expenditure (SH.XPD.CHEX.GD.ZS) and mortality attributed to air pollution (SH.STA.AIRP.P5), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2019 (air pollution), 2023 (health expenditure) and 2024 (mortality, tuberculosis); stunting years differ by state, 2000 to 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: people using safely managed drinking water services (SH.H2O.SMDW.ZS) and safely managed sanitation services (SH.STA.SMSS.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
14. 14World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: urban population share (SP.URB.TOTL.IN.ZS), population aged 65 and above, population density, population growth and urban population living in slums, ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025 (2022 for slums, 2024 for density). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
15. 15World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: poverty headcount at the international line (SI.POV.DDAY) and prevalence of undernourishment (SN.ITK.DEFC.ZS), ASEAN states. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024 (undernourishment) and 2017 to 2025 (poverty, varies by state). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
16. 16World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Extreme heat and rainfall, glacier loss and record ocean heat impact Asia in 2025 (media release on the State of the Climate in Asia 2025, 17 June 2026). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
17. 17United States Geological Survey (ed.), M 7.7 2025 Mandalay, Burma (Myanmar) Earthquake: event record and impact summary (28 March 2025, PAGER alert red). USGS, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
18. 18ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), The 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (publication page, 26 September 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2022 (base year) with projections to 2050. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), ACE to guide regional energy transition through the launch of the 8th ASEAN Energy Outlook (press release, 2024). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
20. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Centre for Energy (ed.), Home page and publications list (9th ASEAN Energy Outlook listed for October 2026; contents not read). ACE, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Coordinating Centre for Humanitarian Assistance on disaster management (ed.), AHA Centre home page and events list (mandate, ARDEX-25 of 22 to 24 July 2025, Lower Mekong transboundary flooding workshop of 12 to 15 October 2026). AHA Centre, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22POST-CLOSE, context only: ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), ASMC Alerts: regional haze situation (alert scale and entries, southern ASEAN Level 2 of 29 October 2026, Level 3 of 26 August 2026, northern ASEAN Level 0 of 14 May 2026; entries after 30 September 2026 are post-close, context only). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
23. 23ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for July 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
24. 24ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Review of Regional Haze Situation for December 2025. ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
25. 25Sentinel Asia (ed.), Flood and Landslide in North Sumatra, Indonesia on 28 November 2025 (emergency observation record). Sentinel Asia secretariat. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
26. 26Viet Nam News (ed.), ASEAN Summit 47: Timor-Leste officially becomes ASEAN’s 11th member (news report, 26 October 2025). Viet Nam News Agency, Ha Noi. Observation year 2025. A news report, used for the admission date only. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
27. 27Mekong River Commission (ed.), About the Mekong River Commission (page opened: established in 1995 on the Mekong Agreement; members Cambodia, Lao PDR, Thailand and Viet Nam). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
28. 28Reports series (ed.), Series registry of subjects (federation registry; entries for REG-ASN, IDN and SGP read). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
29. 29POST-CLOSE, context only: Reports series (ed.), Editorial programme, 3 November 2026 (evidence rules and copy standard). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN Secretariat (ed.), ASEAN Statistical Yearbook 2023 (the statistics page returned no content; named only as the series that would hold trade and investment values). ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Transboundary Haze Pollution, 2002. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), ASEAN Agreement on Disaster Management and Emergency Response, 2005. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2005. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), Charter of the Association of Southeast Asian Nations, 2007. ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2007. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Agreement on the Cooperation for the Sustainable Development of the Mekong River Basin, 1995 (named on the commission page opened [27]; text not opened). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 1995. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Mekong River Commission (ed.), Mekong River Basin State of the Basin Report 2023 (dry-season share of flow at Chiang Saen taken from a search summary). MRC Secretariat, Vientiane. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: ASEAN (ed.), Fourteenth Meeting of the Sub-Regional Ministerial Steering Committee on Transboundary Haze Pollution in the Mekong Sub-Region (page refused; named as the record of Mekong sub-region haze alerts; no value taken from it). ASEAN Secretariat, Jakarta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Southeast Asia Energy Outlook 2024 (page refused). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Energy Outlook for ASEAN, third edition (page refused). IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (ed.), Paris Agreement, 2015. UNFCCC Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: H.-O. Pörtner et al. (eds.), Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC, chapter on Asia. IPCC, Geneva, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used by the generator as the structural base; not read by the drafting desk). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Editions 2026 for Indonesia and Singapore (draft packs in preparation; no value taken from them). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
48. 48ASEAN Specialised Meteorological Centre (ed.), Alert20260826: Activation of Alert Level 3 for the Southern ASEAN Region (alert page; NOAA-20 hotspot counts for 24 and 25 August 2026). ASMC, Singapore. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version