East Asia Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of East Asia’s Interdependent Systems.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the East Asia baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. The three members emitted about 17,268 Mt CO₂e in 2024 excluding land use, of which China 90.0%. Japan’s own net figure for FY2024 was 994 Mt.⁴⁶

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. China’s clean energy share was 30.4% in 2025; Japan targets 40% to 50% renewables in power by FY2040; the Republic of Korea targets 29.2% renewables by 2038.⁵¹⁴¹⁵

   What energy transition is under way?Reported

3. Japan and the Republic of Korea import more than 80% of their energy. Import volumes of LNG by member are not bound for China and Japan.²⁴³²

   How exposed is fuel supply?Reported

4. All three members had their hottest summer in 2025; Korean wildfires burned about 48,238 hectares.⁸¹²

   How severe were recent heat and wildfire?Reported

5. Japan 30.0%, Republic of Korea 20.3% and China 14.9% aged 65 or over in 2025.³

   How old are the populations?Reported

6. Ten typhoons made landfall in China in 2025. Losses in Japan and the Republic of Korea are not bound.¹³³³

   How much is typhoon exposure?Reported

7. Insured and uninsured loss series by member are not bound in this edition.¹¹

   Who carries disaster losses?Not bound

8. A hot summer with a typhoon landfall, power demand and imported fuel stress. SCN-EAS-HEAT-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

Natural disasters affected 67.03 million people in China in 2025 and left 763 dead or missing; ten typhoons made landfall in China and the western North Pacific season had 27 named cyclones.

A typhoon is a regional event. The same track crosses the sea between members and reaches ports, power and supply chains in more than one country. Warning exchange, port continuity and insurance therefore need to be read across borders¹³.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15Enerdata (ed.), Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan focuses on nuclear and renewables through 2040 (news item, 20 February 2025). Enerdata, Grenoble. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 11China Daily (ed.), Natural disasters in China in 2025: 67.03 million people affected, 763 dead or missing, 241.6 billion yuan direct losses (report on a Ministry of Emergency Management briefing, 16 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is East Asia’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Member system cards
• Shared basins and grids
• Hub list
• Regional pathway
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The East Asia matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → ENE → HLT

   Heat raises power demand and loads health services for an ageing population.

   Inferred hottest summer 2025⁸; no event bound

2. 02

   CLI → INF → FIN

   Typhoon landfall damages ports and lifelines and the loss falls on insurers and budgets.

   Inferred China disasters 2025¹¹; loss series not bound

3. 03

   TRD → ENE → FOO

   A fuel supply change reaches power prices and food costs.

   Inferred import dependence²⁴; no event bound

4. 04

   CLI → WAT → FOO

   Heat and low rainfall raise withdrawals and crop stress.

   Inferred withdrawals²⁰; no event bound

5. 05

   CLI → HLT

   Wildfire deaths and displacement load emergency services.

   Reported Korean wildfires 2025¹²

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9China Daily (ed.), China reports warmest year on record tied with 2024 (report on the China Climate Bulletin 2025 of the China Meteorological Administration and the National Climate Center, 29 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 10The Korea Times (ed.), 2025 was nation’s second hottest year on record (report on the Korea Meteorological Administration announcement, 6 January 2026). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 11China Daily (ed.), Natural disasters in China in 2025: 67.03 million people affected, 763 dead or missing, 241.6 billion yuan direct losses (report on a Ministry of Emergency Management briefing, 16 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 17The Korea Times (ed.), Number of newborns hits 4-year high in 2025 (report on the Ministry of Data and Statistics release, 25 February 2026; 254,457 births, total fertility rate 0.8). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

Natural disasters affected 67.03 million people in China in 2025 and left 763 dead or missing; ten typhoons made landfall in China and the western North Pacific season had 27 named cyclones.

Implication

A typhoon is a regional event. The same track crosses the sea between members and reaches ports, power and supply chains in more than one country. Warning exchange, port continuity and insurance therefore need to be read across borders¹³.

What would move it

Seasonal outlooks, track forecasts, port and grid continuity plans and insured-loss series would each move this finding. Losses for Japan and the Republic of Korea are not bound³³.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Japan, China and the Republic of Korea each recorded their hottest summer on record in 2025; China’s annual mean of 10.9 °C tied 2024, and the Republic of Korea’s 13.7 °C was its second highest since 1973.⁸⁹¹⁰

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   The Republic of Korea suffered its largest known wildfires in March 2025: about 48,238 hectares burned and at least 30 people died.⁸¹²

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

   An analysis of Chinese fuel and cement data put 2025 carbon dioxide emissions about 0.3% lower than in 2024, with solar generation up 43% and coal power down 1.9%; the authors call the fall too small to be certain.⁷

4. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

   Japan’s net greenhouse gas emissions were 994 Mt CO₂e in FY2024, 1.9% below FY2023 and 28.7% below FY2013, the first year under one billion tonnes.⁶

5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-CLI-011

   Natural disasters affected 67.03 million people in China in 2025 and left 763 dead or missing; ten typhoons made landfall in China and the western North Pacific season had 27 named cyclones.¹¹¹³

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   Clean energy supplied 30.4% of China’s energy consumption and coal 51.4% in 2025; wind and solar capacity stood at 640 GW and 1,202 GW at year end.⁵

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-006

   Net energy imports were 87.3% of energy use in Japan and 83.2% in the Republic of Korea in 2024, against 24.0% in China.²⁴

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-ENE-007

   The Republic of Korea generated 31.7% of electricity from nuclear, 28.1% from coal, 28.1% from LNG and 10.6% from renewables in 2024, and imported about 46.33 million tonnes of LNG.¹⁴

2.4Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008

   Japan’s calorie-based food self-sufficiency was 38% in FY2024, unchanged for the fourth year, against a target of 45% for FY2030; the production-value measure was 64%.¹⁶

2.5Health

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009

   Japan had 30.0% of its people aged 65 or over in 2025, the Republic of Korea 20.3% and China 14.9%; the Republic of Korea’s total fertility rate was 0.8 and China’s population fell by 3.39 million.³⁵¹⁷

2.6Water

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-WAT-010

   Renewable internal freshwater was 1,992 m³ per person in China, 3,437 in Japan and 1,255 in the Republic of Korea in 2022, and the Republic of Korea withdrew 45.0% of its internal resources.¹⁹²⁰

2.7Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a hot summer with a typhoon landfall in which power demand, imported fuel supply and an ageing population are stressed together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 11China Daily (ed.), Natural disasters in China in 2025: 67.03 million people affected, 763 dead or missing, 241.6 billion yuan direct losses (report on a Ministry of Emergency Management briefing, 16 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 9China Daily (ed.), China reports warmest year on record tied with 2024 (report on the China Climate Bulletin 2025 of the China Meteorological Administration and the National Climate Center, 29 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 10The Korea Times (ed.), 2025 was nation’s second hottest year on record (report on the Korea Meteorological Administration announcement, 6 January 2026). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7Carbon Brief (ed.), Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 21 months (published 12 February 2026). Carbon Brief, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 16Jiji Press (ed.), FY 2024 Japan food self-sufficiency rate remains at 38 pct (republished by Adnkronos English, 10 October 2025; report on a Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries release). Adnkronos, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 17The Korea Times (ed.), Number of newborns hits 4-year high in 2025 (report on the Ministry of Data and Statistics release, 25 February 2026; 254,457 births, total fertility rate 0.8). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 16Jiji Press (ed.), FY 2024 Japan food self-sufficiency rate remains at 38 pct (republished by Adnkronos English, 10 October 2025; report on a Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries release). Adnkronos, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 11China Daily (ed.), Natural disasters in China in 2025: 67.03 million people affected, 763 dead or missing, 241.6 billion yuan direct losses (report on a Ministry of Emergency Management briefing, 16 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of China (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and biennial transparency report (taken from memory of the 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Japan (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and 2040 (taken from the draft Japan national edition and memory; figures not used here). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 (taken from memory of the late 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cabinet Office of Japan (ed.), Damage estimate for a Nankai Trough megaquake, revised 2025 (taken from the draft Japan national edition; figures not used here). Cabinet Office, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 15Enerdata (ed.), Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan focuses on nuclear and renewables through 2040 (news item, 20 February 2025). Enerdata, Grenoble. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Assembly of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis, 2021. Republic of Korea. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-EAS-CLI-001

   Typhoon and flood season across the western North Pacific

   Driver

   tropical cyclones and extreme rainfall

   Exposure

   coastal cities, ports and lowland farming

   Vulnerability

   ageing populations and dense coasts; flood defences not bound

   Capacity

   regional typhoon committee and warning exchange; documented¹³

   Cascade

   CLI → INF, FIN, HLT

   Horizon

   annual

2. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-EAS-ENE-002

   Fuel import interruption in a hot summer

   Driver

   supply route change, price spike or outage at peak demand

   Exposure

   power, industry, heating and cooling

   Vulnerability

   storage depth and LNG flows not bound

   Capacity

   national energy plans¹⁴¹⁵; performance not bound

   Cascade

   TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-EAS-HLT-003

   Heat overload of care services for an ageing population

   Driver

   heat waves

   Exposure

   older adults; outdoor workers

   Vulnerability

   limited cooling; workforce not bound

   Capacity

   health system capacity not bound³²⁷

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT → ENE peak

   Horizon

   seasonal

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-EAS-WAT-004

   Water stress in a dry, hot year

   Driver

   low rainfall and high summer demand

   Exposure

   farming, cooling water, cities

   Vulnerability

   high withdrawal against internal resources in the Republic of Korea²⁰

   Capacity

   basin management not bound³⁴

   Cascade

   WAT → ENE, FOO

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 15Enerdata (ed.), Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan focuses on nuclear and renewables through 2040 (news item, 20 February 2025). Enerdata, Grenoble. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin 2025 (not retrieved). Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of China (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and biennial transparency report (taken from memory of the 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Japan (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and 2040 (taken from the draft Japan national edition and memory; figures not used here). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 (taken from memory of the late 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Assembly of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis, 2021. Republic of Korea. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 9China Daily (ed.), China reports warmest year on record tied with 2024 (report on the China Climate Bulletin 2025 of the China Meteorological Administration and the National Climate Center, 29 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 10The Korea Times (ed.), 2025 was nation’s second hottest year on record (report on the Korea Meteorological Administration announcement, 6 January 2026). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cabinet Office of Japan (ed.), Damage estimate for a Nankai Trough megaquake, revised 2025 (taken from the draft Japan national edition; figures not used here). Cabinet Office, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: North-East Asian Subregional Programme for Environmental Cooperation (ed.), Review of the main activities on transboundary air pollution in North-East Asia (listed in search results). NEASPEC, Incheon. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-EAS-HEAT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

an extended heat wave with peak power demand, followed by a typhoon landfall, with imported fuel supply tight

Analogues

hottest summer 2025⁸; Korean wildfires 2025¹²; typhoon season 2025¹³

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → ENE

   heat raises power demand while fuel supply is tight

   import dependence²⁴

2. 2

   CLI → HLT

   heat raises hospital stays and deaths among older people

   ageing³; no deaths series bound

3. 3

   CLI → INF

   a typhoon landfall disrupts ports and lines

   typhoon season 2025¹³

4. 4

   INF → ENE → FOO

   port closure delays fuel and food cargoes

   no analogue bound

5. 5

   HLT → FIN

   losses fall on households, insurers and budgets

   loss series not bound

6. 6

   FIN → recovery

   rebuilding slows where cover is thin

   loss series not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-EAS-HEAT-01 would travel through East Asia’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: East Asia 2026, scenario SCN-EAS-HEAT-01 (2026); East Asia 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for East Asia. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about East Asia’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Paris Agreement. UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of China (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and biennial transparency report (taken from memory of the 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Japan (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and 2040 (taken from the draft Japan national edition and memory; figures not used here). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 (taken from memory of the late 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Assembly of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis, 2021. Republic of Korea. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 15Enerdata (ed.), Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan focuses on nuclear and renewables through 2040 (news item, 20 February 2025). Enerdata, Grenoble. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 9China Daily (ed.), China reports warmest year on record tied with 2024 (report on the China Climate Bulletin 2025 of the China Meteorological Administration and the National Climate Center, 29 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 10The Korea Times (ed.), 2025 was nation’s second hottest year on record (report on the Korea Meteorological Administration announcement, 6 January 2026). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Annual climate summary for 2025 (the file could not be read as text; values in search summaries were not used). JMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, µg per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin 2025 (not retrieved). Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report of Korea (latest submission; not retrieved). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 7Carbon Brief (ed.), Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 21 months (published 12 February 2026). Carbon Brief, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a hot summer and a typhoon landfall load power systems, health services and ports across the members?

   INI-EAS-CLI-01 · compound summer and typhoon stress; first output: dependency graph for the Yellow Sea and East China Sea corridor.

2. A-02

   How deep are fuel stocks and how diverse are supply routes for Japan and the Republic of Korea?

   INI-EAS-ENE-02 · imported fuel resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.

3. A-03

   How do water withdrawals and drought reach farming, cooling water and cities?

   INI-EAS-WAT-03 · water stress; first output: water balance note for the Republic of Korea and northern China.

4. A-04

   How many deaths can be attributed to heat, by member and year?

   INI-EAS-HLT-04 · heat and ageing; first output: attribution baseline for three members.

5. A-05

   Where do typhoon and flood losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

   INI-EAS-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member loss table.

6. A-06

   What is the condition of habitats and how is it measured across members?

   INI-EAS-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

7. A-07

   How exposed are crop output and food access to concurrent heat, drought and price shocks?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The East Asia regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read East Asia as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   National Foundries

   continuous national evidence environments

   PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

2. 02

   National Models and Portfolios

   each country as a system of systems

   CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

3. 03

   Quarterly national reports

   State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

   BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

4. 04

   Regional aggregation

   East Asia as one of ten regional clusters

   THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

5. 05

   Global sector and strategic models

   GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

   49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

6. 06

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

7. 07

   Global Report

   this series

   BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-EAS-2027-01 · Heat, typhoon and fuel Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The three member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. No union or bloc shares the region code in the registry, so there is no reference group.

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared seas, storm tracks and fuel markets carry risk across member borders. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hub the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs

Tokyo

Desks with a remit

GCRI · GRF · GRX

Registry record

NR-REGIONAL-EAS-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0

What a hub does in this series

• Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
• Hub contact points are not named at baseline
• The registry names the hub and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series reads East Asia as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 11China Daily (ed.), Natural disasters in China in 2025: 67.03 million people affected, 763 dead or missing, 241.6 billion yuan direct losses (report on a Ministry of Emergency Management briefing, 16 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 16Jiji Press (ed.), FY 2024 Japan food self-sufficiency rate remains at 38 pct (republished by Adnkronos English, 10 October 2025; report on a Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries release). Adnkronos, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 17The Korea Times (ed.), Number of newborns hits 4-year high in 2025 (report on the Ministry of Data and Statistics release, 25 February 2026; 254,457 births, total fertility rate 0.8). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: North-East Asian Subregional Programme for Environmental Cooperation (ed.), Review of the main activities on transboundary air pollution in North-East Asia (listed in search results). NEASPEC, Incheon. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Long-range Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia project team, PM2.5 model comparison for base year 2013, Atmosphere, vol. 12, no. 4, p. 469 (listed in search results). MDPI, Basel, 2021. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin 2025 (not retrieved). Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 15Enerdata (ed.), Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan focuses on nuclear and renewables through 2040 (news item, 20 February 2025). Enerdata, Grenoble. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, µg per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-EAS-REGIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent East Asia as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-REG-EAS-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

51 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-REG-EAS-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• National inventories³⁵³⁶ : one basis for member emissions
• LNG annual report³² : volumes by member
• Typhoon season review³³ : losses by member
• Reports Foundational Edition⁴⁸ and the global baseline⁴⁹ : method and peer distributions

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: net energy imports

Construct

energy use less production of primary energy, as a share of energy use

Unit

% of energy use

Scope

calendar year

Source

World Bank World Development Indicators²⁴

Revision

revised by the issuer; not tracked here

Known limits

negative values mean net exports; national energy balances may use other definitions

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Annual climate summary for 2025 (the file could not be read as text; values in search summaries were not used). JMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan (ed.), 2025 Population Census, preliminary results (the release page returned not found). MIC, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Korea Forest Service (ed.), Final report on the March 2025 wildfires (final area and deaths not read). Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of China (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and biennial transparency report (taken from memory of the 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan (ed.), Food self-sufficiency rate, FY2025 (a secondary report of 37% was seen as a headline only; the page body was not readable). MAFF, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: North-East Asian Subregional Programme for Environmental Cooperation (ed.), Review of the main activities on transboundary air pollution in North-East Asia (listed in search results). NEASPEC, Incheon. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Long-range Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia project team, PM2.5 model comparison for base year 2013, Atmosphere, vol. 12, no. 4, p. 469 (listed in search results). MDPI, Basel, 2021. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin 2025 (not retrieved). Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 23DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report of Korea (latest submission; not retrieved). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used as the structural base; not read by this author). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Regional source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading: East Asia by member country

Map plates for every member country follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form for the 3 member countries named in the series registry.

Populations, 2025¹

B.4Atlas card: Western North Pacific typhoon basin

• basin
• shared storm track
• ports and power
• members: China, Japan, Republic of Korea

Systems in view

energy, freight and health

Defining instruments

Typhoon Committee¹³; Sendai Framework⁴³

Couplings

CLI → INF → FIN; CLI → ENE

Capability evidence

a regional typhoon committee exists¹³; performance not bound

Gaps

losses in Japan and the Republic of Korea; port continuity

Agenda items

A-01

B.5East Asia system card

The card through which East Asia appears in the global edition and in the sector series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

three interlinked members sharing seas, storm tracks and fuel markets

Population

1,581.6 million across the three members (2025)¹

Trade

Republic of Korea LNG imports 46.33 million t in 2024¹⁴

Hazard

ten typhoon landfalls in China in 2025¹³

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-REG-EAS-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 16Jiji Press (ed.), FY 2024 Japan food self-sufficiency rate remains at 38 pct (republished by Adnkronos English, 10 October 2025; report on a Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries release). Adnkronos, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 11China Daily (ed.), Natural disasters in China in 2025: 67.03 million people affected, 763 dead or missing, 241.6 billion yuan direct losses (report on a Ministry of Emergency Management briefing, 16 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of China (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and biennial transparency report (taken from memory of the 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 7Carbon Brief (ed.), Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 21 months (published 12 February 2026). Carbon Brief, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, µg per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cabinet Office of Japan (ed.), Damage estimate for a Nankai Trough megaquake, revised 2025 (taken from the draft Japan national edition; figures not used here). Cabinet Office, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Edition 2026 for Japan (draft pack; only the opening of the specification was read; the China and Republic of Korea editions are in preparation). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.151 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population ages 65 and above, % of total population (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
5. 5National Bureau of Statistics of China (ed.), Statistical Communiqué of the People’s Republic of China on the 2025 National Economic and Social Development (preliminary figures, mainland China, 28 February 2026). NBS, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6Ministry of the Environment of Japan (ed.), Japan’s National Greenhouse Gas Emissions and Removals, FY2024 (press release, 14 April 2026). Ministry of the Environment, Tokyo. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7Carbon Brief (ed.), Analysis: China’s CO2 emissions have now been flat or falling for 21 months (published 12 February 2026). Carbon Brief, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
8. 8World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Asia 2025 (media release, 17 June 2026; report WMO-No. 1397). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
9. 9China Daily (ed.), China reports warmest year on record tied with 2024 (report on the China Climate Bulletin 2025 of the China Meteorological Administration and the National Climate Center, 29 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
10. 10The Korea Times (ed.), 2025 was nation’s second hottest year on record (report on the Korea Meteorological Administration announcement, 6 January 2026). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
11. 11China Daily (ed.), Natural disasters in China in 2025: 67.03 million people affected, 763 dead or missing, 241.6 billion yuan direct losses (report on a Ministry of Emergency Management briefing, 16 January 2026). China Daily, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
12. 12The Korea Times (ed.), Man investigated for causing South Korea’s worst-ever wildfire (about 48,238 hectares, at least 30 deaths, 30 March 2025). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 7, chapter 8
13. 13World Meteorological Organization (ed.), Typhoon Committee: cooperation and innovation save lives (news release, 13 March 2026; 27 named cyclones, ten landfalls in China). WMO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
14. 14United States International Trade Administration (ed.), South Korea Country Commercial Guide: Energy (page updated 2026-06-26; generation mix 2024, provisional 2025, 11th Basic Plan, LNG imports). International Trade Administration, Washington, DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15Enerdata (ed.), Japan’s 7th Strategic Energy Plan focuses on nuclear and renewables through 2040 (news item, 20 February 2025). Enerdata, Grenoble. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16Jiji Press (ed.), FY 2024 Japan food self-sufficiency rate remains at 38 pct (republished by Adnkronos English, 10 October 2025; report on a Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries release). Adnkronos, Rome. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
17. 17The Korea Times (ed.), Number of newborns hits 4-year high in 2025 (report on the Ministry of Data and Statistics release, 25 February 2026; 254,457 births, total fertility rate 0.8). The Korea Times, Seoul. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
18. 18DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: PM2.5 air pollution, mean annual exposure, µg per cubic metre (EN.ATM.PM25.MC.M3), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable internal freshwater resources per capita, cubic metres (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
20. 20DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Annual freshwater withdrawals, total, % of internal resources (ER.H2O.FWTL.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
21. 21DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Terrestrial protected areas, % of total land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
22. 22DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable electricity output, % of total electricity output (EG.ELC.RNEW.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.
23. 23DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Renewable energy consumption, % of total final energy consumption (EG.FEC.RNEW.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.
24. 24DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Energy imports, net, % of energy use (EG.IMP.CONS.ZS), China, Japan and Republic of Korea. World Bank, Washington, DC, data updated 2026-10-08. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
25. 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Agriculture, Forestry and Fisheries of Japan (ed.), Food self-sufficiency rate, FY2025 (a secondary report of 37% was seen as a headline only; the page body was not readable). MAFF, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: Japan Meteorological Agency (ed.), Annual climate summary for 2025 (the file could not be read as text; values in search summaries were not used). JMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: Fire and Disaster Management Agency of Japan (ed.), Heatstroke emergency transports, May to September 2025 (totals in search summaries differed and are not used). FDMA, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Internal Affairs and Communications of Japan (ed.), 2025 Population Census, preliminary results (the release page returned not found). MIC, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Korea Forest Service (ed.), Final report on the March 2025 wildfires (final area and deaths not read). Korea Forest Service, Daejeon. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026. IEA, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: GIIGNL (ed.), Annual Report on the LNG industry (latest edition at evidence close; import volumes by member not read). GIIGNL, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regional Specialized Meteorological Centre Tokyo (ed.), Review of the 2025 Typhoon Season (Typhoon Committee 58th session paper; the file could not be read as text). Typhoon Committee, Macao. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ministry of Water Resources of China (ed.), China Water Resources Bulletin 2025 (not retrieved). Ministry of Water Resources, Beijing. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Greenhouse Gas Inventory and Research Center of Korea (ed.), National Greenhouse Gas Inventory Report of Korea (latest submission; not retrieved). GIR, Sejong. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of China (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and biennial transparency report (taken from memory of the 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of Japan (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 and 2040 (taken from the draft Japan national edition and memory; figures not used here). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Government of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Nationally determined contribution for 2035 (taken from memory of the late 2025 announcement; figures not used). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Assembly of the Republic of Korea (ed.), Framework Act on Carbon Neutrality and Green Growth for Coping with Climate Crisis, 2021. Republic of Korea. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cabinet Office of Japan (ed.), Damage estimate for a Nankai Trough megaquake, revised 2025 (taken from the draft Japan national edition; figures not used here). Cabinet Office, Tokyo. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: North-East Asian Subregional Programme for Environmental Cooperation (ed.), Review of the main activities on transboundary air pollution in North-East Asia (listed in search results). NEASPEC, Incheon. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Long-range Transboundary Air Pollutants in Northeast Asia project team, PM2.5 model comparison for base year 2013, Atmosphere, vol. 12, no. 4, p. 469 (listed in search results). MDPI, Basel, 2021. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used as the structural base; not read by this author). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Edition 2026 for Japan (draft pack; only the opening of the specification was read; the China and Republic of Korea editions are in preparation). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
51. 51UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Paris Agreement. UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

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