Strategic Systems Report 2026: Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the planetary boundaries baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. No: seven of nine boundaries are transgressed in the 2025 assessment.²¹

   Is the Earth system inside the safe operating space?Reported

2. Yes: 1.47 degrees C in 2025 and a three-year average above 1.5.⁸⁹

   Is warming still rising?Reported

3. For warm-water reefs, the report says the central estimate has been passed.⁷

   Has any tipping point been crossed?Reported

4. No: three studies differ on the Atlantic circulation.¹⁶¹⁷¹⁸

   Do all tipping studies agree?Reported

5. To 2.3 to 2.8 degrees C by 2100, depending on pledges.¹⁴

   Where does policy point?Reported

6. Yes: 425.62 ppm in 2025 and a record fossil emissions projection.¹⁰¹²

   Is carbon dioxide still rising?Reported

7. Yes: about one million species are threatened.¹⁵

   Does life on land and sea show the same pressure?Reported

8. Ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps Atlantic and Amazon stress. SCN-SR09-CMP-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

The Global Tipping Points Report finds that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is underway. The central threshold estimate is 1.2 degrees C, with a range of 1.0 to 1.5, and warming is about 1.4.

Current warming sits above the central threshold estimate and inside the range. The report states that reefs are very likely to tip even if warming stabilises at 1.5, and that nearly a billion people and about a quarter of marine life depend on them⁷.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 12Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is planetary boundaries risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry planetary boundaries shocks into other systems?
• Which planetary boundaries capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five mechanism chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The planetary boundaries-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their planetary boundaries content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   ENE → BIO → FOO

   Fossil carbon warms and acidifies, and living systems that feed people lose integrity.

   Reported Planetary Health Check²

2. 02

   FOO → WAT, BIO

   Fertiliser and land conversion push nutrient and water limits.

   Reported boundary values³

3. 03

   CLI → BIO

   Warming passes the central reef threshold estimate.

   Reported Tipping Points Report⁷

4. 04

   BIO → WAT → FOO

   Forest loss weakens moisture recycling and the rain that crops need.

   Inferred Amazon transitions¹⁹ · green water²³

5. 05

   CLI → CLI

   Ice-sheet and ocean circulation changes feed back on warming and rainfall.

   Inferred tipping reassessment⁶ · AMOC studies¹⁷

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 22Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities, Environmental Science and Technology 56(3), 1510 to 1521, 2022 (abstract read). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 23Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al., A planetary boundary for green water, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3(6), 380 to 392, 2022 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

The Global Tipping Points Report finds that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is underway. The central threshold estimate is 1.2 degrees C, with a range of 1.0 to 1.5, and warming is about 1.4.

Implication

Current warming sits above the central threshold estimate and inside the range. The report states that reefs are very likely to tip even if warming stabilises at 1.5, and that nearly a billion people and about a quarter of marine life depend on them⁷.

What would move it

Annual bleaching reports, the next tipping points assessment and any revision of the threshold range would each move this finding.

2.2Systemic

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-001

   Seven of the nine planetary boundaries are transgressed in the 2025 assessment, with ocean acidification newly crossed; aerosol loading and stratospheric ozone remain within their limits. The 2023 assessment counted six.²³¹

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-011

   Seven of eight globally quantified safe and just Earth system boundaries are exceeded, and two or more are exceeded across 52% of land that holds 86% of the population.⁵

3. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is ocean heat and reef loss that overlaps stress on the Atlantic circulation and the Amazon. § scenario

2.3Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   Global surface air temperature in 2025 was 1.47 degrees C above the 1850 to 1900 level, the third warmest year, and the 2023 to 2025 average passed 1.5 degrees C for the first time.⁸

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

   Global annual mean CO2 was 425.62 ppm in 2025, up from 422.79 ppm in 2024, against a climate boundary value of 350 ppm.¹⁰³

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-004

   UNEP projects 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C of warming by 2100 if new national pledges are fully implemented and up to 2.8 degrees C on current policies.¹⁴

4. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

   The Global Tipping Points Report finds that widespread mortality of warm-water coral reefs is underway; the central threshold estimate is 1.2 degrees C (range 1.0 to 1.5) and warming is about 1.4.⁷

5. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006

   A reassessment of climate tipping elements puts the central thresholds for the Greenland and West Antarctic ice sheets at about 1.5 degrees C, with ranges of 0.8 to 3 and 1 to 3, and counts nine core and seven regional tipping elements.⁶

6. ReportedEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007

   Published studies disagree on the Atlantic overturning circulation: one estimates collapse around mid-century, one reads present reanalysis data as on route to tipping, and a 34-model study judges collapse this century unlikely.¹⁸¹⁷¹⁶

2.4Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-008

   By 2050, 10% to 47% of Amazonian forests are estimated to be exposed to compounding disturbances that could trigger unexpected ecosystem transitions.¹⁹

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-009

   IPBES found around one million animal and plant species threatened with extinction, with about 75% of the land environment and about 66% of the marine environment significantly altered.¹⁵

2.5Water

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-010

   The freshwater change boundary is transgressed: blue water at 22.6% against a 12.9% limit and green water at 22.0% against a 12.4% limit.³²³

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5Rockström, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 23Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al., A planetary boundary for green water, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3(6), 380 to 392, 2022 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through planetary boundaries, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries planetary boundaries risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on planetary boundaries, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 5Rockström, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted 2015, cited from memory; the page returned only headings. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 3RSK-SR09-CLI-001

   Reef and ice-sheet thresholds near current warming

   Driver

   warming of 1.47 degrees C in 2025⁸

   Exposure

   warm-water reefs; Greenland and West Antarctic ice⁷⁶

   Vulnerability

   threshold ranges overlap current warming

   Capacity

   emission cuts; reef conservation; adaptation planning

   Cascade

   CLI → BIO → FIN

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR09-BIO-002

   Amazon forest transition under compounding disturbance

   Driver

   drought, fire, deforestation and warming acting together¹⁹

   Exposure

   10% to 47% of forests by 2050¹⁹

   Vulnerability

   overlapping disturbance; thresholds uncertain

   Capacity

   protection and restoration targets²⁷

   Cascade

   BIO → WAT → FOO

   Horizon

   5 to 25 years

3. InferredEQL 2RSK-SR09-CLI-003

   Atlantic circulation weakening or collapse

   Driver

   warming and freshwater input to the North Atlantic¹⁷

   Exposure

   north-west Europe, monsoon systems⁷

   Vulnerability

   studies disagree on the threshold and timing¹⁶¹⁸

   Capacity

   monitoring and model improvement

   Cascade

   CLI → WAT → FOO

   Horizon

   decades, uncertain

4. InferredEQL 3RSK-SR09-SYS-004

   Several boundaries transgressed together

   Driver

   seven of nine boundaries beyond limits²

   Exposure

   two or more boundaries exceeded for 86% of people⁵

   Vulnerability

   interactions between boundaries not quantified¹

   Capacity

   policy frameworks for climate and biodiversity³¹²⁷

   Cascade

   CLI ↔ BIO ↔ WAT

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the global level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 5Rockström, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted 2015, cited from memory; the page returned only headings. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Scheffer, M. et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461, 53 to 59, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, and ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to climate change, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 11Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 13Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m² for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987) and the Kigali Amendment (2016), cited from memory. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 1987. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2464 on corporate sustainability reporting, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Science Based Targets Network, Science-Based Targets for Nature: Initial Guidance for Business, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 24Steffen, W. et al., Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet, Science 347(6223), 2015 (abstract read). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 29WMO and UNEP (eds.), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022 (assessment page read; finalised 25 to 29 July 2022; no figure taken from it). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 21Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(6), 1786 to 1793, 2008 (abstract read). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 25Lenton, T.M., Rockström, J., Gaffney, O. et al., Climate tipping points: too risky to bet against, Nature 575, 592 to 595, 2019 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wunderling, N. et al., Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Earth System Dynamics 12, 601 to 619, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rockström, J. et al., Identifying a safe and just corridor for people and the planet, Earth’s Future 9, e2020EF001866, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-SR09-CMP-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

continued warming near 1.5 degrees C with a strong marine heatwave and a severe Amazon drought in the same decade

Analogues

reef mortality, 2025 report⁷; marine heatwave of 2023⁴⁵

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → BIO

   ocean heat drives widespread reef bleaching and mortality

   2025

2. 2

   CLI → CLI

   a weaker Atlantic circulation shifts rainfall and temperature in Europe, Africa and South America

   2023 · 2025

3. 3

   BIO → WAT

   drought and fire raise forest disturbance and reduce moisture recycling

   2024

4. 4

   WAT → FOO

   harvests fall where rain shifts and water stress rises

   2025

5. 5

   BIO → FIN

   fisheries, tourism and coastal protection lose value

   2025

6. 6

   FIN → CLI

   losses strain budgets for adaptation and mitigation

   2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-SR09-CMP-01 would travel through Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026, scenario SCN-SR09-CMP-01 (2026); Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 45Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023, Nature 642(8068), 636 to 643, 2025 (authors not recorded here; bibliographic record and abstract read; no figure used). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for planetary boundaries. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 planetary boundaries readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers planetary boundaries assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about the planetary boundaries and the Earth system’s tipping elements and its couplings?

Sources searched

boundary assessments; tipping point reviews; peer-reviewed Earth-system studies; temperature and carbon records

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted 2015, cited from memory; the page returned only headings. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987) and the Kigali Amendment (2016), cited from memory. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 1987. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1991 on nature restoration, Official Journal of the European Union, 2024, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2464 on corporate sustainability reporting, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Science Based Targets Network, Science-Based Targets for Nature: Initial Guidance for Business, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Global Chemicals Outlook II: From Legacies to Innovative Solutions, 2019, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Special Report on the Ocean and Cryosphere in a Changing Climate, 2019, and ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to climate change, cited from memory; no figure used. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 26Rockström, J. et al., A safe operating space for humanity, Nature 461, 472 to 475, 2009 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 24Steffen, W. et al., Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet, Science 347(6223), 2015 (abstract read). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 21Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(6), 1786 to 1793, 2008 (abstract read). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 20Steffen, W., Rockström, J. et al., Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(33), 8252 to 8259, 2018 (abstract read). Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 11Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 12Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 13Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m² for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 4Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Planetary boundaries (overview page: four crossed in 2015, six in 2023, seven now). Stockholm University, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 29WMO and UNEP (eds.), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022 (assessment page read; finalised 25 to 29 July 2022; no figure taken from it). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 28Global Commission on the Economics of Water (ed.), Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action, release page of 17 March 2023 (about 7% more atmospheric moisture per degree C of warming). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rocha, J.C., Peterson, G., Bodin, O. and Levin, S., Cascading regime shifts within and across scales, Science 362, 1379 to 1383, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Scheffer, M. et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461, 53 to 59, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boulton, C.A., Lenton, T.M. and Boers, N., Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s, Nature Climate Change 12, 271 to 278, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hansen, J.E. et al., Global warming in the pipeline, Oxford Open Climate Change 3(1), kgad008, 2023, cited from memory; the paper’s view on climate sensitivity differs from the IPCC range. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. P-01

   How would reef loss, a weaker Atlantic circulation and Amazon stress combine in the same decade?

   INI-SR09-CMP-01 · compound Earth-system pathway; first output: dependency analysis for six regions.

2. P-02

   Which boundary interactions are strong enough to move a second boundary when one is crossed?

   INI-SR09-INT-02 · boundary interactions; first output: interaction register.

3. P-03

   Where do published studies disagree on tipping thresholds, and why?

   INI-SR09-THR-03 · threshold disagreement; first output: threshold comparison table.

4. P-04

   What would a long, direct record of Atlantic circulation strength change in the evidence?

   INI-SR09-OCN-04 · ocean circulation record; first output: record and gap map.

5. P-05

   Which regions hold the most exposed forests, reefs and ice, and which people depend on them?

   INI-SR09-EXP-05 · regional exposure; first output: exposure overlay.

6. P-06

   Which boundaries have agreed control variables, and which do not?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: coverage note.

7. P-07

   How do boundary limits translate to national and company scale?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. P-08

   Which Earth-system capabilities have been tested in practice, and which are only planned?

   Earth-system capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 planetary portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The planetary boundaries edition reads national chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National environment chapters

   boundary reading in each national edition

   IN PREPARATION · national baselines

2. 02

   Sector editions

   climate, water, biodiversity, food

   PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Planetary boundaries model

   the Earth system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Strategic links

   SR-07 food, water and energy · SR-06 insurance · SR-02 lifelines

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Planetary Boundaries Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the planetary boundaries candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-SR09-2027-01 · Compound reef, ocean and forest Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Common causes

One cause can press on many boundaries at once. Fossil carbon warms the surface and acidifies the ocean, and land conversion presses on forests, water and species.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability
• SR-07 Food–Water–Energy Security
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.2Domino effects

Crossing one threshold can raise the odds of crossing the next. The reassessment of climate tipping points states that crossing some of them can increase the likelihood of crossing others.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability
• SR-07 Food–Water–Energy Security
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.3Inter-systemic feedbacks

The Earth system amplifies and dampens itself. Heat accumulates, seas rise faster, and natural sinks respond to the carbon and heat they absorb.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability
• SR-07 Food–Water–Energy Security
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.4Shared vulnerabilities

Different boundaries share the same weak points: warm-water reefs, large forests, ice sheets and the people who depend on them.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability
• SR-07 Food–Water–Energy Security
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

8.5Thresholds and tipping

A system can absorb stress until a threshold is crossed. Boundaries mark where risk rises. Tipping points mark where change can become self-sustaining.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• SR-02 Critical Infrastructure and Lifeline Systems
• SR-06 Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability
• SR-07 Food–Water–Energy Security
• GS-07 Climate and Earth Systems
• GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 11Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 12Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 22Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities, Environmental Science and Technology 56(3), 1510 to 1521, 2022 (abstract read). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 23Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al., A planetary boundary for green water, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3(6), 380 to 392, 2022 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wunderling, N. et al., Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Earth System Dynamics 12, 601 to 619, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rocha, J.C., Peterson, G., Bodin, O. and Levin, S., Cascading regime shifts within and across scales, Science 362, 1379 to 1383, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 13Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m² for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 28Global Commission on the Economics of Water (ed.), Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action, release page of 17 March 2023 (about 7% more atmospheric moisture per degree C of warming). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 5Rockström, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Planetary Boundaries Model v0

Model ID

MDL-SR09-PLANETARY · v0.1

Purpose

represent the Earth system as nine linked boundary processes and the mechanisms by which pressure spreads between climate, ocean, land, water and the living biosphere

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

45 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 planetary boundaries annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• Planetary Health Check²: control-variable tables in the report
• Tipping Points Report⁷: threshold tables in the full report
• Copernicus⁸: monthly bulletins for 2026
• NOAA¹⁰: 2026 monthly means

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: boundary transgression

Construct

a control variable that has passed the limit set for its planetary boundary

Unit

the unit of each control variable, for example ppm or Tg a year

Method

comparison of the current value with the limit in the framework

Source

Planetary Health Check 2025² and boundary status dashboard³

Uncertainty

limits carry ranges, and some margins are very small

Known limits

a crossed boundary is not a tipping point; it marks rising risk

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rocha, J.C., Peterson, G., Bodin, O. and Levin, S., Cascading regime shifts within and across scales, Science 362, 1379 to 1383, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boulton, C.A., Lenton, T.M. and Boers, N., Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s, Nature Climate Change 12, 271 to 278, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 23Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al., A planetary boundary for green water, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3(6), 380 to 392, 2022 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 22Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities, Environmental Science and Technology 56(3), 1510 to 1521, 2022 (abstract read). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Science Based Targets Network, Science-Based Targets for Nature: Initial Guidance for Business, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 13Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m² for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• SYS
• CLI
• BIO
• WAT
• FIN
• FOO
• ENE
• DAT
• AIC
• MIN

B.3Regional reading, ten regional clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

B.4Regional card: Amazon forest system

• region
• forest
• moisture recycling
• tipping

Systems in view

forest, water, climate, food

Defining study

transitions study of 2024¹⁹

Couplings

BIO → WAT → FOO; CLI → BIO

Capability evidence

protection and restoration targets adopted²⁷

Gaps

regional thresholds; rates of change

Agenda items

P-01 · P-05

B.5How countries appear in the global edition

Countries enter the planetary boundaries edition through the environment chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-STRATEGIC-PLANETARY-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 13Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m² for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 11Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 12Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 5Rockström, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.145 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Richardson, K., Steffen, W., Lucht, W., Bendtsen, J., Cornell, S.E., Rockström, J. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9(37), eadh2458, 2023 (six of nine boundaries transgressed; ocean acidification near its boundary). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
2. 2Sakschewski, B., Caesar, L., Rockström, J. et al., Planetary Health Check 2025: A Scientific Assessment of the State of the Planet (publication page; seven of nine boundaries breached). Planetary Boundaries Science, Potsdam. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3. 3Globaia (ed.), Planetary boundaries status dashboard (nine boundaries with control-variable values and limits; page last updated 15 June 2026; its summary text still says six while its table shows seven). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
4. 4Stockholm Resilience Centre (ed.), Planetary boundaries (overview page: four crossed in 2015, six in 2023, seven now). Stockholm University, Stockholm. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
5. 5Rockström, J. et al., Safe and just Earth system boundaries, Nature 619, 102 to 111, 2023 (seven of eight globally quantified boundaries exceeded; 52% of land and 86% of population with two or more exceeded). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
6. 6Armstrong McKay, D.I., Staal, A., Abrams, J.F. et al., Exceeding 1.5°C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, eabn7950, 2022 (full text read; nine core and seven regional tipping elements). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7Lenton, T.M. et al. (eds.), Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (release page read, not the full report; 10 October 2025; coral reef threshold central estimate 1.2 degrees C, range 1 to 1.5). University of Exeter, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
8. 8ECMWF and Copernicus Climate Change Service (eds.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (news release: 1.47 degrees C above 1850 to 1900; third warmest year; 2023 to 2025 average above 1.5). ECMWF, Reading. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
9. 9WMO (ed.), State of the Climate 2025 Update for COP30 (January to August 2025 at 1.42 degrees C; CO2 423.9 ppm in 2024; sea-level rise 4.1 mm a year, 2016 to 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
10. 10NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory (ed.), Global annual mean CO2 growth data (annual means 2020 to 2025; 425.62 ppm in 2025). NOAA, Boulder. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
11. 11Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 965, 2025 (fossil CO2 about 37.4 GtCO2 in 2024; 422.45 ppm projected; remaining 1.5 degrees C budget about 235 GtCO2 from 2025). Global Carbon Project. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
12. 12Global Carbon Project (ed.), Global Carbon Budget 2025 (landing page: projected 1.1% rise in fossil CO2 emissions, a record high; headline tables not read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
13. 13Indicators of Global Climate Change 2024, Earth System Science Data 17, 2641, 2025 (2015 to 2024 average 1.24 degrees C; 2024 at 1.52; human-induced 1.36; energy imbalance 0.89 W per m² for 2005 to 2024). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
14. 14UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target, 4 November 2025 (read through a summary page of a contributing institute: 2.3 to 2.5 degrees C on new pledges; up to 2.8 on current policies). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
15. 15IPBES (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (media release of 6 May 2019: around one million species threatened; about 75% of land and 66% of marine environment significantly altered). IPBES Secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
16. 16Baker, J. et al., Continued Atlantic overturning circulation even under climate extremes, Nature 638, 987 to 994, 2025 (34 models; collapse this century judged unlikely; weakening still expected; abstract and Met Office release read). Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
17. 17van Westen, R.M., Kliphuis, M. and Dijkstra, H.A., Physics-based early warning signal shows that AMOC is on tipping course, Science Advances 10, eadk1189, 2024 (full text read). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
18. 18Ditlevsen, P. and Ditlevsen, S., Warning of a forthcoming collapse of the Atlantic meridional overturning circulation, Nature Communications 14, 4254, 2023 (abstract read: collapse estimated around mid-century; a 2025 erratum is listed and was not read). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
19. 19Critical transitions in the Amazon forest system, Nature 626, 555 to 564, 2024 (authors not recorded here; abstract read: 10% to 47% of forests exposed to compounding disturbances by 2050). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8
20. 20Steffen, W., Rockström, J. et al., Trajectories of the Earth System in the Anthropocene, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 115(33), 8252 to 8259, 2018 (abstract read). Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
21. 21Tipping elements in the Earth’s climate system, Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences 105(6), 1786 to 1793, 2008 (abstract read). Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
22. 22Outside the Safe Operating Space of the Planetary Boundary for Novel Entities, Environmental Science and Technology 56(3), 1510 to 1521, 2022 (abstract read). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 8
23. 23Wang-Erlandsson, L. et al., A planetary boundary for green water, Nature Reviews Earth and Environment 3(6), 380 to 392, 2022 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 8
24. 24Steffen, W. et al., Planetary boundaries: guiding human development on a changing planet, Science 347(6223), 2015 (abstract read). Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
25. 25Lenton, T.M., Rockström, J., Gaffney, O. et al., Climate tipping points: too risky to bet against, Nature 575, 592 to 595, 2019 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
26. 26Rockström, J. et al., A safe operating space for humanity, Nature 461, 472 to 475, 2009 (bibliographic record read, no abstract; no figure taken from it). Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
27. 27Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, targets 2 and 3 (restore 30% of degraded ecosystems; conserve 30% of land, water and seas by 2030; adoption date not shown on the page). CBD Secretariat, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
28. 28Global Commission on the Economics of Water (ed.), Turning the Tide: A Call to Collective Action, release page of 17 March 2023 (about 7% more atmospheric moisture per degree C of warming). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
29. 29WMO and UNEP (eds.), Scientific Assessment of Ozone Depletion 2022 (assessment page read; finalised 25 to 29 July 2022; no figure taken from it). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report of the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; the page returned an access error; no figure used. Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, adopted 2015, cited from memory; the page returned only headings. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Montreal Protocol on Substances that Deplete the Ozone Layer (1987) and the Kigali Amendment (2016), cited from memory. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 1987. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boers, N., Observation-based early-warning signals for a collapse of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation, Nature Climate Change 11, 680 to 688, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Wunderling, N. et al., Interacting tipping elements increase risk of climate domino effects under global warming, Earth System Dynamics 12, 601 to 619, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rocha, J.C., Peterson, G., Bodin, O. and Levin, S., Cascading regime shifts within and across scales, Science 362, 1379 to 1383, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Scheffer, M. et al., Early-warning signals for critical transitions, Nature 461, 53 to 59, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Boulton, C.A., Lenton, T.M. and Boers, N., Pronounced loss of Amazon rainforest resilience since the early 2000s, Nature Climate Change 12, 271 to 278, 2022, cited from memory. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hansen, J.E. et al., Global warming in the pipeline, Oxford Open Climate Change 3(1), kgad008, 2023, cited from memory; the paper’s view on climate sensitivity differs from the IPCC range. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
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41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Directive (EU) 2022/2464 on corporate sustainability reporting, Official Journal of the European Union, 2022, cited from memory; check the act number against the Official Journal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
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45. 45Drivers of the extreme North Atlantic marine heatwave during 2023, Nature 642(8068), 636 to 643, 2025 (authors not recorded here; bibliographic record and abstract read; no figure used). Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 5

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