- Reports
- Baseline Edition 2026
- Complete edition
Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Energy Storage
Exponential Technology
Advanced Energy Storage 2026
Imprint
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
- Report number
- NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
- Evidence close
- 30 September 2026, cut DC-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Status
- Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
- DOI and UNI
- Issued at deposit
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
- Cite as
- Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Energy Storage (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/xt-16/
Contents
- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
S.1Abstract
Advanced energy storage matters to the Nexus programme in two ways. It is a new grid infrastructure that moves solar and wind output into the evening and gives power systems flexibility. It is also a materials supply chain built on lithium, graphite, cobalt and a small number of cell makers. The deployment evidence is strong. The IEA counts 108 GW of new battery storage worldwide in 2025, 40% more than in 2024, and about 80% of it was utility-scale1. IRENA reports that the installed cost of a four-hour utility-scale battery fell about 30% in 2025 to USD 140 per kWh, around 95% below 20102. Lithium iron phosphate cells make up about 90% of deployments1. In the United States, utility-scale battery capacity was 43.6 GW at the end of 2025 and nearly 52 GW by mid-20263. The supply base is concentrated. The Democratic Republic of the Congo mined an estimated 73% of cobalt, China produced about 82% of natural graphite, and the IEA reports record refining concentration across energy minerals678. China announced export controls on battery supply chains on 9 October 2025, and the IEA records that proposed controls on batteries were suspended until November 20268. The European Union battery regulation requires a battery passport from 18 February 2027 for industrial batteries above 2 kWh10. Evidence on long-duration storage volumes, fire incident rates, recycling capacity and workforce is thin. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It forecasts no price or deployment figure and ranks no country, vendor or chemistry.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the energy storage baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
108 GW was added worldwide in 2025, 40% more than in 2024.1
How fast is storage growing?Reported
About USD 140 per kWh installed for four-hour utility-scale systems in 2025.2
What does it cost?Reported
Lithium iron phosphate, about 90% to 94% of deployments depending on the source.12
Which chemistry dominates?Reported
Cobalt in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, natural graphite in China, and refining across energy minerals.678
Where is the supply concentrated?Reported
A battery passport from 18 February 2027 and safety documentation for stationary systems.10
What does Europe require?Reported
Pumped storage USD 153 per kWh installed; other options cost more in 2025.2
What do long-duration options cost?Reported
Incident rates on a common basis are not bound; one 2025 fire is recorded in a secondary source.14
How safe is it?Reported
A grid that depends on batteries while supply stays concentrated. SCN-XT16-SUP-01
What will 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002
IRENA reports that the installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage fell about 30% in 2025 to USD 140 per kWh, around 95% below the 2010 level.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2,634 | |
| 2025 | 140 |
Source: IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 20252. The 2010 value is attributed there to BNEF.
Cheaper storage makes it a routine part of new solar projects: about a quarter of utility-scale solar commissioned in 2025 was paired with a battery2. IRENA also notes that the rebound in battery metal prices in early 2026 is a reminder that input cost volatility can slow the trend2. The IEA records that lithium prices almost doubled between January 2025 and April 20268.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading energy storage as grid infrastructure and as a materials supply chain.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people storage arrives as a headline about a battery plant, a fire or a cheaper bill.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Costs fell about 30% in one year while input prices rebounded, and investment totals are not bound.
NEXUS
Synthesis
Storage is well described by deployment and cost series and thinly measured as a system.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the 2026 state of advanced energy storage as infrastructure and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.
What it is not
Not a forecast of deployment or prices, a technology ranking, an endorsement of any vendor or chemistry, or an assessment of any project or programme. Safety codes, trade measures and subsidies are decisions of competent authorities.
What comes next
National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 energy storage edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Chapter 1
Storage is grid infrastructure and a supply chain
Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.
1.1The questions this part answers
Key questions
- Where is energy storage risk concentrated?
- Which couplings carry energy storage shocks into other systems?
- Which energy storage capabilities hold under compound stress?
- What must 2027 evidence measure first?
In this part
- Narrative
- Headline finding
- Lead figure
- Five footprint and governance chapters
- Twelve-domain reading
- Sector screens
- Dependency matrix
- Risk objects
- Capability ladder
- Scenario
- Three lenses
- Portfolio
1.2The argument
Energy storage is usually discussed as a cost curve. The 2026 evidence reads it as two things at once: a grid infrastructure that shifts solar and wind output across the day, and a materials supply chain that depends on a few minerals, a few countries and one dominant chemistry128.
The deployment evidence is strong. The IEA counts 108 GW of new battery storage in 2025, 40% more than in 2024, and installed capacity is eleven times the 2021 level1. Costs fell about 30% in one year to USD 140 per kWh installed2.
The supply evidence is concentrated. Lithium iron phosphate is in about 90% of deployments1. The Democratic Republic of the Congo mined an estimated 73% of cobalt and China produced about 82% of natural graphite67. China announced export controls on battery supply chains in October 20258.
The least measured parts are safety rates, long-duration volumes, recycling and workforce. One 2025 fire is recorded in a secondary source, and incident rates on a common basis are not bound14.
Pumped storage and four-hour batteries have similar installed costs per kWh in 2025. Other long-duration options cost more per kWh and are shown as reported averages across few projects2.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Four-hour utility-scale battery | 140 | |
| Pumped storage hydropower | 153 | |
| Thermal storage | 245 | |
| Compressed air | 381 | |
| Gravity storage | 803 |
Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.
Figure ID FIG-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003
1.3Twenty couplings between five systems
The energy storage-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their energy storage content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.
Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.
- Strong
- Moderate
- Weak
Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.
| From, to | WAT | ENE | FOO | HLT | BIO |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WAT Water | · | WEAK pumped storage water | WEAK no documented link | WEAK no documented link | WEAK no documented link |
| ENE Energy | WEAK cooling and siting, not bound | · | WEAK cold-chain backup, undocumented | WEAK clinic backup, undocumented | WEAK no documented link |
| FOO Food | WEAK no documented link | WEAK no documented link | · | WEAK no documented link | WEAK no documented link |
| HLT Health | WEAK no documented link | WEAK workforce | WEAK no documented link | · | WEAK no documented link |
| BIO Biodiversity | WEAK no documented link | WEAK no documented link | WEAK no documented link | WEAK no documented link | · |
| Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A. | |||||
Transmission paths
- 01
TRD → MIN → ENE
Export controls or price swings on battery materials slow storage build-out.
Reported China controls of October 20258
- 02
MIN → FIN → ENE
Lithium and graphite prices change installed cost.
Reported lithium prices almost doubled, 2025 to 20268
- 03
FIN → ENE
Falling cost raises deployment and solar pairing.
Reported cost fall of about 30% in 20252
- 04
INF → ENE
A fire or siting dispute can halt a project or a market.
Inferred Moss Landing record14
- 05
GOV → DAT
The battery passport sets data duties from 2027.
Reported EU regulation10
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Chapter 2
Key findings
Twelve findings carry the energy storage baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.
2.1Headline finding
ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002
IRENA reports that the installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage fell about 30% in 2025 to USD 140 per kWh, around 95% below the 2010 level.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| 2010 | 2,634 | |
| 2025 | 140 |
Source: IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 20252. The 2010 value is attributed there to BNEF.
Implication
Cheaper storage makes it a routine part of new solar projects: about a quarter of utility-scale solar commissioned in 2025 was paired with a battery2. IRENA also notes that the rebound in battery metal prices in early 2026 is a reminder that input cost volatility can slow the trend2. The IEA records that lithium prices almost doubled between January 2025 and April 20268.
What would move it
Installed cost in the next IRENA report, lithium and graphite prices, and trade measures would each move this finding.
2.2Infrastructure
ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-001
The IEA counts 108 GW of new battery storage capacity deployed worldwide in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; installed capacity is eleven times the 2021 level, and lithium iron phosphate is in about 90% of deployments.12
ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-004
US utility-scale battery capacity was 43.6 GW at the end of 2025 and nearly 52 GW by mid-2026; operators plan 14 GW more in the second half of 2026, 26 GW in 2027 and 14 GW in 2028.3
2.3Finance
ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002
IRENA reports that the installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage fell about 30% in 2025 to USD 140 per kWh, around 95% below the 2010 level of USD 2,634 per kWh.2
ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-003
Ember reports that battery costs fell 45% in 2025 after a fall of 20% in 2024, while deployment grew 46% to an estimated 250 GWh; this is a different measure from installed system cost.42
2.4Minerals
ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-005
World lithium mine production rose 31% to about 290,000 tons in 2025, excluding the United States, and batteries account for 88% of lithium end use.5
ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-006
The Democratic Republic of the Congo accounted for an estimated 73% of mined cobalt in 2025 and set export quotas of up to 96,600 tons a year for 2026 and 2027.624
ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-MIN-007
China produced an estimated 82% of natural graphite in 2025, and the IEA reports that the average share of the top refined supplier across energy minerals reached about 72%.78
2.5Governance
ReportedEQL 5NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-008
Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 requires a battery passport from 18 February 2027 for industrial batteries above 2 kWh, sets safety requirements for stationary storage systems, and sets recycled content targets for cobalt, lead, lithium and nickel to be met by 2031.1011
ReportedEQL 4NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009
China announced export controls on lithium-ion battery supply chains on 9 October 2025; the IEA records that proposed controls on batteries were suspended until November 2026.8
2.6Energy
ReportedEQL 3NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-010
IRENA reports total installed cost of USD 153 per kWh for pumped storage, USD 245 for thermal storage, USD 381 for compressed air and USD 803 for gravity storage; one vendor states that its iron-air system can discharge for up to 100 hours.213
2.7Safety
ReportedEQL 2NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SAF-011
A fire at a 300 MW, 1,200 MWh battery plant at Moss Landing, California, began on 16 January 2025 and about 1,200 residents were evacuated, according to a secondary summary.14
2.8Systemic
Expert inputEQL 2NRF-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a grid that depends on batteries while cell, cathode and graphite supply stays concentrated and trade measures change. § scenario
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026, 21 April 2026 (battery costs down 45% in 2025 after 20% in 2024; deployment up 46% to an estimated 250 GWh; 14% of new solar generation shifted). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lithium (world mine production 2025, end uses, prices, reserves). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo production share quoted at different values from cited sources). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11European Commission (ed.), Batteries (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 in force 17 August 2023, applies from 18 February 2024; Delegated Regulation (EU) 2025/606 of 4 July 2025 on recycling efficiency). Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Form Energy (ed.), Battery technology page (iron-air system described as able to discharge for up to 100 hours). Vendor statement, weak evidence, not independently tested. Form Energy, Somerville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Chapter 3
Systems and sectors at baseline
3.1Where each system stood at evidence close
INF · Deployment
Battery storage added worldwide
108GW40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale.
Reported2025IEA1
FIN · Cost
Installed cost, four-hour utility-scale battery
140USD per kWhabout 30% lower than in 2024.
Reported2025IRENA2
INF · Chemistry
Lithium iron phosphate share of deployments
≈90%IRENA gives about 94% of new installations.
Reported2025IEA1
MIN · Supply
World lithium mine production
290thousand tons31% more than in 2024, excluding the United States.
Reported2025USGS5
MIN · Supply
Share of mined cobalt from the Democratic Republic of the Congo
73%export quotas set for 2026 and 2027.
Reported2025USGS6
INF · National
US utility-scale battery capacity, mid-2026
≈52GW43.6 GW at the end of 2025.
Reported2026EIA3
3.2Domain posture
Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through energy storage, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries energy storage risk into each domain.
| Domain | Posture at baseline | Coupling | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| WAT | Water use of pumped storage and thermal systems is not bound in this edition. | WAT ↔ ENE | Expert input EQL 1 |
| ENE | The core system: 108 GW added in 2025; solar and storage pairing is now routine. | the core system | Reported EQL 5 |
| FOO | No documented coupling at baseline; cold-chain backup is not evidenced here. | none documented | Expert input EQL 1 |
| HLT | No documented coupling at baseline; backup power for clinics is not evidenced here. | none documented | Expert input EQL 1 |
| BIO | No documented coupling at baseline. | none documented | Expert input EQL 1 |
| CLI | Storage lets solar output reach evening hours; installed batteries shifted about 14% of new solar generation in 2025. | ENE → CLI | Reported EQL 3 |
| INF | Grid infrastructure: 80% of 2025 additions were utility-scale; one 2025 fire is recorded. | ENE ↔ INF | Reported EQL 4 |
| FIN | Installed cost fell about 30% in 2025; investment totals are not bound. | FIN ↔ ENE | Reported EQL 4 |
| DAT | The EU battery passport brings a data record for each industrial battery above 2 kWh from 2027. | ENE → DAT | Reported EQL 3 |
| AIC | Battery-based backup power for data centres rose 30% to 45 GW in 2025; the share tied to compute load is not bound. | AIC → ENE | Reported EQL 3 |
| MIN | Lithium, cobalt and graphite supply is concentrated; lithium prices almost doubled from January 2025 to April 2026. | MIN → ENE | Reported EQL 4 |
| TRD | Export controls on battery supply chains were announced in October 2025; some were suspended until November 2026. | TRD → MIN | Reported EQL 4 |
3.3Sector screens
All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on energy storage, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.
| Code | Sector | Baseline evidence | Exposure to watch | Evidence coverage |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GS-00 | Cross-system | storage couples to power, minerals and trade | supply shock during rapid grid dependence | THIN |
| GS-01 | Water | water use of storage not bound | pumped storage siting | THIN |
| GS-02 | Energy | 108 GW added in 20251 | evening peak reliance | GOOD |
| GS-03 | Food | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-04 | Health | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-05 | Finance | installed cost USD 140 per kWh2 | investment totals not bound | PARTIAL |
| GS-06 | Development | access to storage in lower-income markets not bound | widening gaps | THIN |
| GS-07 | Climate | solar shifting 14% of new generation4 | avoided curtailment | PARTIAL |
| GS-08 | Disaster | backup power evidence not bound | none documented | THIN |
| GS-09 | Infrastructure | utility-scale share about 80%1 | fire and siting | PARTIAL |
| GS-10 | Cities | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-11 | Biodiversity | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-12 | Earth observation | no documented coupling | none documented | THIN |
| GS-13 | Cyber and digital | battery passport data from 202710 | data governance | PARTIAL |
| GS-14 | Policy | EU regulation and trade measures810 | export controls and subsidies | GOOD |
| GS-15 | Science | peer-reviewed base on cost and technology383940 | common cost basis | GOOD |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lithium (world mine production 2025, end uses, prices, reserves). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026, 21 April 2026 (battery costs down 45% in 2025 after 20% in 2024; deployment up 46% to an estimated 250 GWh; 14% of new solar generation shifted). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Dunn, B., Kamath, H. and Tarascon, J.-M., Electrical energy storage for the grid: a battery of choices, Science 334, 928 to 935, 2011, cited from memory. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schmidt, O. et al., Projecting the future levelized cost of electricity storage technologies, Joule 3, 81 to 100, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Albertus, P., Manser, J.S. and Litzelman, S., Long-duration electricity storage applications, economics, and technologies, Joule 4, 21 to 32, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Chapter 4
Risks and capability
Four energy storage risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.
4.1Risk objects
Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.
InferredEQL 4RSK-XT16-MIN-001
Concentrated cell and materials supply
InferredEQL 3RSK-XT16-SAF-002
Fire and thermal events at large sites
Expert inputEQL 2RSK-XT16-FIN-003
Cost rebound from input prices
InferredEQL 3RSK-XT16-GOV-004
Fragmented trade and safety rules
4.2Capability ladder
Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for energy storage at the global level.
| Function | Rung | Level | Strongest public evidence at baseline |
|---|---|---|---|
| Prevention and mitigation | EXISTS | safety standards and EU safety documentation for stationary systems103032 | |
| Monitoring and observation | LISTED | no common tracker of incidents or field degradation25 | |
| Early warning | LISTED | supply and price watching is not consolidated | |
| Preparedness and planning | EXISTS | EU regulation and national procurement programmes310 | |
| Redundancy and reserves | LISTED | strategic stocks of battery materials are not documented here | |
| Response | LISTED | no tested response to a large site fire documented here14 | |
| Continuity of critical services | LISTED | storage as backup for critical services is not evidenced here | |
| Recovery | LISTED | one plant clean-up and recycling record in a secondary source14 | |
| Adaptation | EXISTS | chemistry diversification is under way1819 | |
| Social protection | LISTED | not applicable at baseline | |
| Finance and insurance | LISTED | investment and insurance data are not bound | |
| Institutional coordination | EXISTS | standards bodies and regulators102648 | |
| Technical infrastructure | EXISTS | large and growing installed base13 | |
| Workforce | LISTED | skills gaps reported; no figure bound | |
| Research capacity | ADEQUATE | strong peer-reviewed base38394041 | |
| A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline. | |||
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: EPRI (ed.), Battery Energy Storage System Failure Incident Database (the page returned no data; incident rate figures seen only in a secondary summary). Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540, Energy Storage Systems and Equipment, third edition 2023, cited from memory; the catalogue page showed no document text. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540A, Test Method for Evaluating Thermal Runaway Fire Propagation in Battery Energy Storage Systems, cited from memory. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Fire Protection Association (ed.), NFPA 855, Standard for the Installation of Stationary Energy Storage Systems, 2023 edition, cited from memory; the page showed only the title. NFPA, Quincy. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Sodium-ion battery (energy density figures; producer announcements of 2025; cost claims marked as needing update). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: CATL (ed.), announcement of the Naxtra sodium-ion battery brand, April 2025, known only from a secondary summary; the company news page was fetched but no article was read. Contemporary Amperex Technology, Ningde. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 62619:2022, Safety requirements for secondary lithium cells and batteries for use in industrial applications, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 62933-5-2, Electrical energy storage systems, safety requirements for grid-integrated systems, electrochemical-based systems, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Lithium iron phosphate battery (energy density, cycle life, market share reports). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Long Duration Storage Shot, launched 2021, cited from memory; the page address returned not found. US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (ed.), Order No. 841, Electric Storage Participation in Markets Operated by Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators, February 2018, cited from memory. FERC, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Dunn, B., Kamath, H. and Tarascon, J.-M., Electrical energy storage for the grid: a battery of choices, Science 334, 928 to 935, 2011, cited from memory. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schmidt, O. et al., Projecting the future levelized cost of electricity storage technologies, Joule 3, 81 to 100, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Albertus, P., Manser, J.S. and Litzelman, S., Long-duration electricity storage applications, economics, and technologies, Joule 4, 21 to 32, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sepulveda, N.A. et al., Design space for long-duration energy storage in decarbonised power systems, Nature Energy 6, 506 to 516, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Chapter 5
Grid dependence on batteries while supply is restricted
A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.
5.1Assumptions
Scenario SCN-XT16-SUP-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.
- Baseline
- the 2026 reference state in this edition
- Drivers
- a trade measure on cells, cathode or graphite takes effect while grids rely on batteries for evening peaks
- Analogues
- the October 2025 export controls and the 2025 to 2026 lithium price rise8
- Interventions
- none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
- Run state
- narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027
5.2The cascade, step by step
- 1
TRD → MIN
a control on battery materials or equipment takes effect
2025
- 2
MIN → FIN
cell and cathode prices rise and project schedules slip
2026
- 3
FIN → ENE
fewer batteries are installed before evening peaks
2026
- 4
ENE → INF
operators lean on gas plants and demand response in peak hours
2026
- 5
GOV → MIN
regulators and states press for local processing and recycling
2025
- 6
FIN → MIN
investment shifts to other chemistries and recycling
2026
5.3The scenario as a table of steps
How the shock in scenario SCN-XT16-SUP-01 would travel through Advanced Energy Storage’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Trade to minerals | A control on battery materials or equipment takes effect. Analogue or source: 2025. | Edition XT-16, scenario SCN-XT16-SUP-01, step 1 |
| 02 Minerals to finance | Cell and cathode prices rise and project schedules slip. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition XT-16, scenario SCN-XT16-SUP-01, step 2 |
| 03 Finance to energy | Fewer batteries are installed before evening peaks. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition XT-16, scenario SCN-XT16-SUP-01, step 3 |
| 04 Energy to infrastructure | Operators lean on gas plants and demand response in peak hours. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition XT-16, scenario SCN-XT16-SUP-01, step 4 |
| 05 Governance to minerals | Regulators and states press for local processing and recycling. Analogue or source: 2025. | Edition XT-16, scenario SCN-XT16-SUP-01, step 5 |
| 06 Finance to minerals | Investment shifts to other chemistries and recycling. Analogue or source: 2026. | Edition XT-16, scenario SCN-XT16-SUP-01, step 6 |
A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Advanced Energy Storage 2026, scenario SCN-XT16-SUP-01 (2026); Advanced Energy Storage 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Chapter 6
Readings from the other desks
The energy storage baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Standards Progress | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Academy Capability | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading energy storage as grid infrastructure and as a materials supply chain. Deployment is large and cost has fallen sharply, and supply is concentrated. Evidence is strongest for deployment and cost, and weakest for safety rates, long-duration volumes and recycling.
INF-001 · FIN-002 · MIN-006 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people storage arrives as a headline about a battery plant, a fire or a cheaper bill. The baseline asks that public debate separate cost series, vendor claims and incident reports, and keep local safety questions in view.
FIN-002 · SAF-011 · INF-004
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Costs fell about 30% in one year while input prices rebounded, and investment totals are not bound28. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-002 · FIN-003
NEXUS
Synthesis
Storage is well described by deployment and cost series and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind incident rates, publish a cost bridge and test the supply-shock pathway before the next trade measure.
SYS-012 · Q-01 · Q-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for energy storage. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| GCRI Canada | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Nexus Standards and Academy | technology chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, NXS standards, RA capability | technology editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Storage is a grid build-out and a supply chain. The first is fast and falling in cost; the second is concentrated and exposed to trade measures. Keeping them apart avoids both hype and complacency.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Two stories, one technology
An installed system cost, a turnkey price and a battery cost index measure different things. This edition labels each and asks for a common basis before they are compared.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Separate measures of cost
One large fire can shape a local market. Incident rates on a common basis would show whether risk falls with scale, chemistry and standards.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Safety is the blind spot
Cells are cheap while materials are concentrated. Recycled content targets and the battery passport start in Europe, and recycling volumes are not yet measured.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Supply and recycling decide the next decade
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 energy storage readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Energy storage risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- PUBLISHED
- PROGRAMME
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation (EU) 2023/15421011 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | batteries |
| UL 954030 | UL Standards | US and Canada | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | energy storage systems |
| UL 9540A31 | UL Standards | US | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | thermal runaway fire propagation test |
| NFPA 85532 | NFPA | US | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | installation of stationary systems |
| IEC 6261933 | IEC | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | safety of industrial lithium cells |
| IEC 6305634 | IEC | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | safety of lithium systems for storage |
| UN Manual of Tests and Criteria, 38.335 | United Nations | global transport | PUBLISHED | transport testing |
| IEC 62933-5-236 | IEC | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | grid system safety |
| FERC Order 84148 | FERC | US | IN FORCE | wholesale market access |
| DOE Long Duration Storage Shot26 | US Department of Energy | US | PROGRAMME | cost target |
Changed since 2024
- EU rules on carbon footprint declaration and battery passport phase in from 2026 and 202710
- Commission Delegated Regulation (EU) 2025/606 set the method for recycling efficiency, published 4 July 202511
- China announced battery supply chain export controls on 9 October 2025, with some suspended until November 20268
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers energy storage assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about advanced energy storage as infrastructure and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- peer-reviewed journals; agencies and institutions; standards bodies and regulations; supply and market analyses
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Dunn, Kamath and Tarascon38 | journal article | 2011 | framework | grid storage options |
| Schmidt et al.39 | journal article | 2019 | supports | cost projections |
| Albertus, Manser and Litzelman40 | journal article | 2020 | supports | long-duration economics |
| Sepulveda et al.41 | journal article | 2021 | supports | long-duration design space |
| Hunter et al.42 | journal article | 2021 | supports | long-duration costs |
| Armand and Tarascon43 | journal article | 2008 | framework | battery research |
| Goodenough and Park44 | journal article | 2013 | framework | lithium-ion perspective |
| Larcher and Tarascon45 | journal article | 2015 | context | sustainable batteries |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEA Global Energy Review 20261 | IEA | 2026 | supports | deployment |
| IRENA cost report2 | IRENA | 2026 | supports | cost |
| EIA Today in Energy3 | EIA | 2026 | supports | US capacity |
| Ember Global Electricity Review4 | Ember | 2026 | supports | cost and solar shifting |
| IEA batteries slides9 | IEA | 2024 | context | outlook to 2030 |
| IEA Global EV Outlook 2026 slides12 | IEA | 2026 | context | battery demand context |
| BNEF cost survey28 | BNEF | 2025 | context | cost series cited by IRENA |
| Lazard LCOE+29 | Lazard | 2025 | context | storage cost comparison |
| NREL Storage Futures Study27 | NREL | 2021 | context | deployment scenarios |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regulation (EU) 2023/154210 | European Union | 2023 | supports | battery rules |
| European Commission batteries page11 | European Commission | 2025 | supports | implementation dates |
| UL 9540 and 9540A3031 | UL Standards | 2023 | context | system safety and fire testing |
| NFPA 85532 | NFPA | 2023 | context | installation code |
| IEC 6261933 and IEC 6305634 | IEC | 2022 | context | cell and system safety |
| UN Manual 38.335 | United Nations | 2023 | context | transport testing |
| IEC 62933-5-236 | IEC | 2020 | context | grid system safety |
| FERC Order 84148 | FERC | 2018 | context | market access |
| DOE Long Duration Storage Shot26 | US Department of Energy | 2021 | context | cost target |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| USGS lithium5 | USGS | 2026 | supports | lithium supply |
| USGS cobalt6 | USGS | 2026 | supports | cobalt supply |
| USGS graphite7 | USGS | 2026 | supports | graphite supply |
| IEA Critical Minerals Outlook 20268 | IEA | 2026 | supports | concentration and controls |
| Form Energy page13 | vendor | 2026 | context | vendor claim |
| EPRI incident database25 | EPRI | 2025 | context | incident data, not read |
| IHA hydropower outlook37 | IHA | 2025 | context | pumped storage |
| CATL announcement47 | vendor | 2025 | context | sodium-ion claim |
| Feng et al.46 | journal article | 2018 | context | thermal runaway |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11European Commission (ed.), Batteries (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 in force 17 August 2023, applies from 18 February 2024; Delegated Regulation (EU) 2025/606 of 4 July 2025 on recycling efficiency). Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540, Energy Storage Systems and Equipment, third edition 2023, cited from memory; the catalogue page showed no document text. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540A, Test Method for Evaluating Thermal Runaway Fire Propagation in Battery Energy Storage Systems, cited from memory. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Fire Protection Association (ed.), NFPA 855, Standard for the Installation of Stationary Energy Storage Systems, 2023 edition, cited from memory; the page showed only the title. NFPA, Quincy. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 62619:2022, Safety requirements for secondary lithium cells and batteries for use in industrial applications, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 63056:2020, Safety requirements for secondary lithium cells and batteries for use in electrical energy storage systems, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Manual of Tests and Criteria, section 38.3, lithium metal and lithium ion batteries, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 62933-5-2, Electrical energy storage systems, safety requirements for grid-integrated systems, electrochemical-based systems, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (ed.), Order No. 841, Electric Storage Participation in Markets Operated by Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators, February 2018, cited from memory. FERC, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Long Duration Storage Shot, launched 2021, cited from memory; the page address returned not found. US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Dunn, B., Kamath, H. and Tarascon, J.-M., Electrical energy storage for the grid: a battery of choices, Science 334, 928 to 935, 2011, cited from memory. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schmidt, O. et al., Projecting the future levelized cost of electricity storage technologies, Joule 3, 81 to 100, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Albertus, P., Manser, J.S. and Litzelman, S., Long-duration electricity storage applications, economics, and technologies, Joule 4, 21 to 32, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sepulveda, N.A. et al., Design space for long-duration energy storage in decarbonised power systems, Nature Energy 6, 506 to 516, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hunter, C.A. et al., Techno-economic analysis of long-duration energy storage and flexible power generation technologies to support high-variable renewable energy grids, Joule 5, 2077 to 2101, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Armand, M. and Tarascon, J.-M., Building better batteries, Nature 451, 652 to 657, 2008, cited from memory. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Goodenough, J.B. and Park, K.-S., The Li-ion rechargeable battery: a perspective, Journal of the American Chemical Society 135, 1167 to 1176, 2013, cited from memory. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Larcher, D. and Tarascon, J.-M., Towards greener and more sustainable batteries for electrical energy storage, Nature Chemistry 7, 19 to 29, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026, 21 April 2026 (battery costs down 45% in 2025 after 20% in 2024; deployment up 46% to an estimated 250 GWh; 14% of new solar generation shifted). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Wanner, B. (IEA), Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions, presentation slides, Energy Storage Summit, London, 18 February 2025 (slides summarising the IEA special report of 2024; storage capacity needed for tripled renewables; stated policies battery additions to 2030; lithium demand measures). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12IEA (ed.), Global EV Outlook 2026, launch webinar slides, 20 May 2026 (electric cars 25% of sales in 2025, 28% forecast for 2026; battery pack price declines in China). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: BloombergNEF (ed.), Energy Storage System Cost Survey 2025, cited only as the source of the series reported by IRENA; not opened. BloombergNEF, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lazard (ed.), Levelized Cost of Energy Plus, 2025 edition, cited from memory. Lazard, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (ed.), Storage Futures Study, 2021, cited from memory; the host was not reachable. NREL, Golden. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lithium (world mine production 2025, end uses, prices, reserves). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Form Energy (ed.), Battery technology page (iron-air system described as able to discharge for up to 100 hours). Vendor statement, weak evidence, not independently tested. Form Energy, Somerville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: EPRI (ed.), Battery Energy Storage System Failure Incident Database (the page returned no data; incident rate figures seen only in a secondary summary). Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Hydropower Association (ed.), World Hydropower Outlook 2025 (the page loaded but the report was not read; the 2025 pumped storage figure appears only in a secondary summary). IHA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: CATL (ed.), announcement of the Naxtra sodium-ion battery brand, April 2025, known only from a secondary summary; the company news page was fetched but no article was read. Contemporary Amperex Technology, Ningde. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Feng, X. et al., Thermal runaway mechanism of lithium ion battery for electric vehicles: a review, Energy Storage Materials 10, 246 to 267, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo production share quoted at different values from cited sources). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Chapter 7
The 2027 agenda
Eight bounded questions open the 2027 energy storage agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 energy storage edition.
7.1Questions for the operational series
- Q-01
How many battery fires and thermal events occur per unit of capacity, and how do rates differ by chemistry and age?
INI-XT16-SAF-01 · safety incident data; first output: incident register on a common basis.
- Q-02
Which cell, cathode, anode and equipment steps are single points of failure, and how do export controls change them?
INI-XT16-SUP-02 · cell and materials supply; first output: dependence map.
- Q-03
How much long-duration storage is operating and under construction, by technology and duration?
INI-XT16-LDS-03 · long-duration evidence; first output: deployment table by technology.
- Q-04
What recycling capacity exists, and what recovered volumes meet the recycled content targets?
INI-XT16-REC-04 · recycling and passport; first output: capacity and passport readiness map.
- Q-05
How can installed cost, turnkey price and pack price be compared on one basis?
INI-XT16-CST-05 · costs on a common basis; first output: cost bridge table.
- Q-06
Which national markets set storage targets or procurement rules, and how do they differ?
To be admitted in 2027; first output: policy overlay.
- Q-07
What workforce exists for installation, operation and fire response?
To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.
- Q-08
Which readiness capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?
Readiness capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.
7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 storage portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.
| ID | Object | Kind | Question | State |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| INI-XT16-SAF-01 | Safety incident data | Initiative | Q-01 | PROPOSED |
| INI-XT16-SUP-02 | Cell and materials supply | Initiative | Q-02 | PROPOSED |
| INI-XT16-LDS-03 | Long-duration evidence | Initiative | Q-03 | PROPOSED |
| INI-XT16-REC-04 | Recycling and passport | Initiative | Q-04 | PROPOSED |
| INI-XT16-CST-05 | Costs on a common basis | Initiative | Q-05 | PROPOSED |
| MSN-XT16-2027-01 | Evening peak Universe mission | Mission | Q-02 | Candidate |
7.3The pathway
The energy storage edition reads national readiness chapters, the coupled sector reports on energy, minerals and infrastructure, and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the global energy and lifeline editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.
- 01
National readiness chapters
storage and grid-flexibility readiness in each national edition
IN PREPARATION · national baselines
- 02
Sector couplings
GS-02 energy · SR-04 minerals · XT-12 materials
GS-02 DRAFTED · sector baselines
- 03
Technology system model
cells, long-duration options, minerals, safety, governance
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence
- 04
Strategic links
SR-02 lifeline systems · SR-13 strategic technology
PLANNED · strategic baselines
- 05
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027
- 06
XT-16 report
this series
BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition
- 07
Evidence and correction
one graph, many projections
OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027
7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the energy storage candidate mission
- 01
Mandate
- 02
Core Build · 1 month
- 03
Action · 1 week
- 04
Evidence seal
- 05
Portfolio correction
- 06
Next mandate
| Item | Record | State | Timing |
|---|---|---|---|
| F1 | Annual mandate record | PLANNED | after the Q2 2027 alignment |
| F2 | Core Build record | PLANNED | one month before the exercise |
| F3 | Exercise evidence | PLANNED | during the Action week |
| F4 | Decision packets | PLANNED | exercise state only |
| F5 | Proof receipts | PLANNED | scoped to each recorded check |
| F6 | After-action report | PLANNED | within one quarter |
| F7 | Upgrade docket | PLANNED | routed to the Portfolio |
| F8 | Portfolio renewal | PLANNED | 2027 global annual edition |
| F9 | Public synthesis | PLANNED | public-safe extracts only |
Mission
- ID
- MSN-XT16-2027-01 · Evening peak Universe mission
- Role spine
- Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
- Receiving actors
- to be identified with the mandate
7.5Handoffs and routing
Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.
| Finding | Routed to | Purpose | Class |
|---|---|---|---|
| INF-001 · deployment | INI-XT16-CST-05 | costs on a common basis | PUBLIC |
| FIN-002 · cost | INI-XT16-CST-05 | costs on a common basis | PUBLIC |
| INF-004 · US capacity | regional consortia | policy overlay | PUBLIC |
| MIN-006 · cobalt | INI-XT16-SUP-02 | cell and materials supply | PUBLIC |
| MIN-007 · graphite | INI-XT16-SUP-02 | cell and materials supply | PUBLIC |
| GOV-008 · battery regulation | INI-XT16-REC-04 | recycling and passport | PUBLIC |
| SAF-011 · fire record | INI-XT16-SAF-01 · key F review | safety incident data | PUBLIC |
| SYS-012 · compound pathway | MSN-XT16-2027-01 | Universe candidate | CONSORTIUM |
| Class | Where it goes | Who can see it |
|---|---|---|
| PUBLIC | the published edition and its evidence bundle | anyone |
| CONSORTIUM | governed rooms of the federation | consortium members under agreement |
| CONTROLLED | need-to-know channels | named competent actors only |
7.6Feeds and signal register
| Feed | Producer | Latency | Feeds into |
|---|---|---|---|
| Agency capacity statistics | EIA and national agencies | monthly to annual | INF-004 |
| IEA and IRENA annual reports | IEA, IRENA | annual | INF-001 |
| Electricity reviews | Ember | annual | FIN-003 |
| Mineral Commodity Summaries | USGS | annual | MIN-005 |
| Critical minerals outlook | IEA | annual | MIN-007 |
| EU battery regulation pages | European Commission | per release | GOV-008 |
| Incident databases | EPRI and agencies | continuous | SAF-011 |
Escalation routes
- none · keep monitoring
- research question
- project
- risk object
- annual publication
- signal report
| ID | Signal | Corroboration | Systems | Route |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| SIG-XT16-001 | Installed cost fell about 30% in 20252 | CORROBORATED | FIN · ENE | research question Q-05 |
| SIG-XT16-002 | China battery export controls of October 20258 | PARTIAL | TRD · MIN | initiative Q-02 |
| SIG-XT16-003 | Moss Landing fire of January 202514 | PARTIAL | INF | research question Q-01 |
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Chapter 8
Systems in depth
One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.
8.1Cells, chemistries and storage technologies
Storage uses several technologies. Evidence is strongest for lithium-ion batteries and pumped storage, and weakest where claims rest on vendor announcements or secondary summaries.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium iron phosphate batteries | about 90% of deployments, up from well below half five years ago | 119 | Reported |
| Pumped storage hydropower | installed cost USD 153 per kWh; round-trip efficiency of 70 to 80%; pumped storage was the largest storage type in 2023 by capacity | 21716 | Reported |
| Sodium-ion batteries | a producer reported 175 Wh per kg for its 2025 line; field data not bound | 1847 | Reported |
| Flow batteries and iron-air systems | a 100 MW, 400 MWh vanadium system began operating in China in 2022; compressed air plants run in Germany, the United States and China; one vendor claims up to 100 hours | 202113 | Reported |
Couplings
- ENE ↔ FIN deployment and cost
- MIN → ENE materials
- INF → ENE safety and siting
Evidence to bind in 2027
- long-duration deployment by technology
- field performance on a common basis
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-02 Energy
- SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
- XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
- XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
- XT-17 Climate Technologies and Carbon Management
8.2Grid role, energy and water
Batteries shift solar output into the evening and are moving from short ancillary services toward energy shifting. Water and cooling use is not published on a common basis.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Solar pairing | about a quarter of utility-scale solar commissioned in 2025 was paired with batteries | 2 | Reported |
| Solar shifting | installed batteries could shift about 14% of new solar generation; Chile and Australia over 50% | 4 | Reported |
| Duration | most projects cluster around two hours; more are four hours or longer | 1 | Reported |
| Water use | not published for pumped storage and thermal systems | 17 | Expert input |
Couplings
- ENE → CLI solar shifting
- ENE ↔ INF facility siting
- AIC → ENE backup power
Evidence to bind in 2027
- water use by technology
- grid service performance data
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-02 Energy
- SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
- XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
- XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
- XT-17 Climate Technologies and Carbon Management
8.3Minerals, materials and supply chain
Cells depend on lithium, graphite and cobalt, and on refining that is concentrated. Lithium prices almost doubled from January 2025 to April 2026.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Lithium | production up 31% in 2025; batteries are 88% of end use | 5 | Reported |
| Cobalt | export quotas of up to 96,600 tons a year for 2026 and 2027 | 624 | Reported |
| Graphite | preliminary antidumping duty of 93.50% on Chinese anode material in the United States | 7 | Reported |
| Refining | top refined supplier share averaged about 72% across energy minerals in 2025 | 8 | Reported |
Couplings
- MIN → ENE materials
- TRD → MIN export controls
- FIN → MIN processing investment
Evidence to bind in 2027
- cell capacity by country
- recycled volumes against targets
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-02 Energy
- SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
- XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
- XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
- XT-17 Climate Technologies and Carbon Management
8.4Economy, investment and workforce
Costs fell sharply in 2025 and deployment rose. Investment totals and workforce numbers are the thin parts of the evidence.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Installed cost | fell about 30% in 2025 to USD 140 per kWh | 2 | Reported |
| Battery cost index | Ember reports a fall of 45% in 2025 and 20% in 2024 | 4 | Reported |
| Outlook | the IEA stated policies scenario adds over 700 GW of battery storage from 2024 to 2030 | 9 | Scenario |
| Workforce | skills gaps reported; no figure bound | 26 | Expert input |
Couplings
- FIN → ENE scale-up
- MIN → FIN input prices
- HLT → ENE workforce
Evidence to bind in 2027
- investment totals
- workforce size and skills gaps
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-02 Energy
- SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
- XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
- XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
- XT-17 Climate Technologies and Carbon Management
8.5Safety, regulation and governance watch
The nearest governance questions for storage are fire safety, battery passports, recycled content and trade measures. Rules exist, and several dates fall in 2026 and 2027.
| Component | State | Evidence | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| Battery regulation | Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 applies from 18 February 2024; safety documentation for stationary systems | 1011 | Reported |
| Safety standards | system safety, fire propagation testing and installation codes exist | 303132 | Reported |
| Incident record | one 2025 fire at a 300 MW, 1,200 MWh plant, from a secondary summary | 14 | Reported |
| Trade measures | export controls announced in 2025; some suspended until November 2026 | 8 | Reported |
Couplings
- INF → ENE safety and siting
- GOV → DAT battery passport
- GOV → TRD trade measures
Evidence to bind in 2027
- incident rates on a common basis
- status of delegated acts
Related editions
- GLB Global Systems
- GS-02 Energy
- SR-04 Critical Minerals and Strategic Materials
- XT-12 Advanced Materials and Nanotechnology
- XT-14 Fusion and Frontier Energy
- XT-17 Climate Technologies and Carbon Management
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Lithium iron phosphate battery (energy density, cycle life, market share reports). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Pumped-storage hydroelectricity (round-trip efficiency of 70 to 80%; world capacity about 200 GW in 2025 attributed to the hydropower association). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Grid energy storage (pumped storage and battery capacity in 2023 from an IEA dataset). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Sodium-ion battery (energy density figures; producer announcements of 2025; cost claims marked as needing update). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: CATL (ed.), announcement of the Naxtra sodium-ion battery brand, April 2025, known only from a secondary summary; the company news page was fetched but no article was read. Contemporary Amperex Technology, Ningde. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Flow battery (vanadium system of 100 MW and 400 MWh in Dalian, 2022). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Compressed-air energy storage (Huntorf, McIntosh and Zhangjiakou plants). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Form Energy (ed.), Battery technology page (iron-air system described as able to discharge for up to 100 hours). Vendor statement, weak evidence, not independently tested. Form Energy, Somerville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026, 21 April 2026 (battery costs down 45% in 2025 after 20% in 2024; deployment up 46% to an estimated 250 GWh; 14% of new solar generation shifted). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lithium (world mine production 2025, end uses, prices, reserves). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo production share quoted at different values from cited sources). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Wanner, B. (IEA), Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions, presentation slides, Energy Storage Summit, London, 18 February 2025 (slides summarising the IEA special report of 2024; storage capacity needed for tripled renewables; stated policies battery additions to 2030; lithium demand measures). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Long Duration Storage Shot, launched 2021, cited from memory; the page address returned not found. US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11European Commission (ed.), Batteries (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 in force 17 August 2023, applies from 18 February 2024; Delegated Regulation (EU) 2025/606 of 4 July 2025 on recycling efficiency). Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540, Energy Storage Systems and Equipment, third edition 2023, cited from memory; the catalogue page showed no document text. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540A, Test Method for Evaluating Thermal Runaway Fire Propagation in Battery Energy Storage Systems, cited from memory. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Fire Protection Association (ed.), NFPA 855, Standard for the Installation of Stationary Energy Storage Systems, 2023 edition, cited from memory; the page showed only the title. NFPA, Quincy. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Annex A
Methodology
How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.
A.1Methods
The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.
| No. | Derivation | Calculation | Result |
|---|---|---|---|
| (1) | Battery storage added in 2024 implied by 40% growth | 108 ÷ 1.40 | ≈ 77 GW |
| (2) | Fall in installed cost, 2010 to 2025 | 1 − 140 ÷ 2,634 | about 95% |
| (3) | US utility-scale capacity at mid-2026 | 43.6 + 8.3 | ≈ 51.9 GW |
| (4) | US additions planned from the second half of 2026 to 2028 | 14 + 26 + 14 | 54 GW |
| Strength | Definition |
|---|---|
| STRONG | a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region |
| MODERATE | an effect is documented but buffered or slower |
| WEAK | an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale |
| Label | Rule |
|---|---|
| Reported | value as issued by its source, with year |
| Inferred | reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement |
| Estimated | Nexus analytical value with stated method |
| Scenario | conditional on stated assumptions |
| Expert input | structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence |
A.2Model card, Energy storage System Model v0
- Model ID
- MDL-XT16-STORAGE · v0.1
- Purpose
- represent advanced energy storage as infrastructure coupled to power systems, minerals, trade, finance, safety and recycling
- Family
- graph-based system of systems
- Inputs
- the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
- Method
- expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
- Validation
- none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
- Uncertainty
- qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
- Domain of validity
- global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
- Reproducibility
- strength table and sources published in this edition
typed in v0
documented within one season
documented, buffered
plausible, undocumented
A.3The baseline evidence cut
Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.
- Cut ID
- DC-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-B0
- Type
- baseline documentary cut
- Resolution policy
- pinned · as of 30 September 2026
- Sources pinned
- 48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
- Model runs
- none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
- Digest
- computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
- Supersedes
- nothing, first cut of the series
- Superseded by
- the 2027 energy storage annual cut
Lineage
- 01
source edition
- 02
pinned citation
- 03
finding
- 04
page
- 05
publication record
| Element | Baseline 2026 | 2027 global annual |
|---|---|---|
| Sources | cited global publications, pinned by edition | national, regional and sector cuts through one graph |
| Analysis | stated methods and editorial estimates | typed analysis specifications |
| Models | Energy storage System Model v0 specification | model runs with receipts |
| Findings | twelve baseline findings | findings re-bound to federation evidence |
| Review | five passes scheduled | five passes on the exact digest |
A.4Evidence age and coverage
A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.
| Indicator | Observed | Released | Cadence | Next release |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Deployment | 2025 | Global Energy Review 2026 | annual | next review |
| Installed cost | 2025 | IRENA July 2026 | annual | next cost report |
| US capacity | 2025 to 2026 | EIA August 2026 | periodic | next EIA note |
| Lithium and cobalt | 2025 | USGS 2026 summaries | annual | next summaries |
| Critical minerals outlook | 2025 | IEA 2026 | annual | next outlook |
| EU regulation | 2023 | Regulation text | periodic | delegated acts |
| Moss Landing record | 2025 | secondary summary | one-off | agency report |
| Export controls | 2025 to 2026 | IEA 2026 | per event | November 2026 review |
| System | Coverage | Thinnest dimension |
|---|---|---|
| Deployment | GOOD | regional data on a common basis |
| Cost | PARTIAL | common basis across sources |
| Supply | PARTIAL | recycling volumes |
| Governance | PARTIAL | status of delegated acts |
| Long duration | THIN | deployment by technology |
| Safety | THIN | incident rates |
| Skills | THIN | workforce numbers |
| Recycling | THIN | capacity and recovered volumes |
| Field | Source that would fill it | Blocker |
|---|---|---|
| Energy storage investment totals on a common basis | national agencies, market surveys, development banks | not retrieved; the cost survey behind the IRENA series was not opened28 |
| Long-duration storage deployment by technology and duration | agencies, system operators, hydropower association | only unit costs read2; the hydropower outlook report was not opened37; one vendor claim13 |
| Battery fire and thermal event rates on a common basis | EPRI incident database and agency reports25 | the database page returned no data; the Moss Landing record comes from a secondary summary14 |
| Recycling capacity and recovered volumes | national agencies, recyclers, European Commission | not retrieved; only regulation targets read10 |
| Sodium-ion performance and output from primary data | peer-reviewed tests, producer data, national agencies | secondary summary and vendor announcement only1847 |
| Water use of pumped storage and thermal systems | operators, regulators, peer-reviewed studies | not retrieved |
| Chinese storage capacity from national sources | national energy administration and industry bodies | not retrieved; the figure found is in a secondary source15 |
| Status of EU battery due diligence obligations after August 2025 | Official Journal and Commission notices10 | the regulation text read states 18 August 2025; later changes were not checked |
| Status of China battery export controls after November 2026 | Chinese ministry notices and IEA updates8 | the IEA outlook records a suspension to November 2026; no later source read |
| Grid service performance of large batteries from system operator data | system operator reports | the operator page returned an access error; secondary summary only22 |
| Field degradation and lifetime of installed systems | operators, peer-reviewed field studies | not retrieved |
| Storage workforce size and skills gaps | national statistics, industry surveys | not retrieved; capability rung stays LISTED |
| IEA batteries report text beyond the slide set | IEA Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions report9 | the report page returned an access error; slides read |
| Capability rungs beyond standards and planning | agencies, operators, laboratories | not reviewed |
A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources
Published by IRENA in 2026. Annual report. Role: binds FIN-002 and the cost tiles. Coverage: global averages by technology; project mix varies.
EVD-XT16-001
Renewable Power Generation Costs in 20252
Published by the IEA in 2026. Annual report. Role: binds INF-001 and the deployment tiles. Coverage: global and regional additions in 2025.
EVD-XT16-002
Global Energy Review 2026, battery storage section1
| Dimension | EVD-XT16-001 | EVD-XT16-002 |
|---|---|---|
| Completeness | global averages; few projects for emerging options | global and regional additions |
| Timeliness | published about six months after year end | published within the following year |
| Revision | annual edition | annual edition |
| Method transparency | cost definitions stated | definitions stated in the report |
| External validation | attributed series from a market survey | agency review |
Evidence cards to follow in 2027
A.6Publication acceptance record
Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.
| Group | Area | Items | Pass | N/A | Pending |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D1 | Identity and scope | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 |
| D2 | Source and data | 12 | 9 | 1 | 2 |
| D3 | Analysis and models | 12 | 3 | 8 | 1 |
| D4 | Findings and claims | 9 | 8 | 0 | 1 |
| D5 | Figures, tables, maps | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 |
| D6 | Editorial and citations | 10 | 8 | 0 | 2 |
| D7 | Review and approval | 13 | 0 | 0 | 13 |
| D8 | Artefact and design | 12 | 7 | 0 | 5 |
| D9 | Registry and release | 9 | 0 | 0 | 9 |
Publication gate
- Conditions met
- 14 of 23 at evidence close
- Blocking problems
- none recorded
- Open conditions
- reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer
Not applicable at baseline
- Model runs
- first runs in Q1 2027
- Maps
- plates in Q2 2027
- Waivers
- none
A.7Status words
| Status | What it means |
|---|---|
| Observed | Measured directly and published by the source. |
| Reported | Published statistics of an official or institutional source. |
| Declared | Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured. |
| Estimated | A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A. |
| Modelled | Produced by a stated model from cited inputs. |
| Inferred | Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured. |
| Forecast | A projection by the cited source. |
| Simulated | A simulation result under stated assumptions. |
| Scenario | A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction. |
| Expert input | Expert judgement, recorded with its basis. |
| Candidate | Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence. |
| Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject. | |
A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected
Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.
| Step | What happens | Source |
|---|---|---|
| 01 Evidence arrives from the pillars | Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s. | |
| 02 The cut is sealed | On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on. | |
| 03 The edition is assembled | The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide. | |
| 04 The keys turn | At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward. | |
| 05 The gate opens | A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit. | |
| 06 Signed and deposited | The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI. | |
| 07 Published on its desk’s site | Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part. | |
| 08 Corrections go to Standards | Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut. |
A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).
Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.
A.9Glossary and abbreviations
| Term | Meaning |
|---|---|
| Baseline Edition | the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series |
| WEFH+B | water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core |
| Coupling | a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another |
| Protection gap | the share of losses not covered by insurance |
| Capability ladder | LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED |
| EQL | evidence-quality level, 1–5 |
| Evidence cut | a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions |
| NNC · NLC · NWG | National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups |
| Abbreviation | Expansion |
|---|---|
| AAM | anode active material |
| BESS | battery energy storage system |
| CAES | compressed air energy storage |
| EIA | US Energy Information Administration |
| LCOE | levelised cost of electricity |
| LDES | long-duration energy storage |
| LFP | lithium iron phosphate |
| NMC | nickel manganese cobalt oxide |
| PSH | pumped storage hydropower |
| STEPS | Stated Policies Scenario |
| TIC | total installed cost |
| UPS | uninterruptible power supply |
A.10Technical annex
| Item | Annex | Contents | Status |
|---|---|---|---|
| A.1 | Indicator definitions | the global indicator set, with units and sources | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.2 | Coupling strengths | the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.3 | Scenario specification | SCN-XT16-SUP-01 assumptions and signposts | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.4 | Capability placements | rung evidence for fifteen functions | IN THIS EDITION |
| A.5 | Model diagnostics | first runs and validation | 2027 |
| A.6 | Sensitivity analyses | influence of coupling strengths | 2027 |
| A.7 | Cluster notes | cards for the major storage and battery supply chain clusters | 2027 |
| A.8 | Review statements | pass-by-pass review record | AT RELEASE |
A.1 · indicator definition: installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage
- Construct
- fully installed cost per unit of energy capacity for a utility-scale battery with four hours of storage at rated power
- Unit
- US dollars per kWh
- Method
- weighted average of reported project costs, as defined by the publisher
- Source
- IRENA Renewable Power Generation Costs in 20252
- Uncertainty
- not stated as an interval in the pages read
- Known limits
- turnkey price and battery cost indices measure different scopes and are not interchangeable
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: BloombergNEF (ed.), Energy Storage System Cost Survey 2025, cited only as the source of the series reported by IRENA; not opened. BloombergNEF, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Hydropower Association (ed.), World Hydropower Outlook 2025 (the page loaded but the report was not read; the 2025 pumped storage figure appears only in a secondary summary). IHA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Form Energy (ed.), Battery technology page (iron-air system described as able to discharge for up to 100 hours). Vendor statement, weak evidence, not independently tested. Form Energy, Somerville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: EPRI (ed.), Battery Energy Storage System Failure Incident Database (the page returned no data; incident rate figures seen only in a secondary summary). Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Sodium-ion battery (energy density figures; producer announcements of 2025; cost claims marked as needing update). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: CATL (ed.), announcement of the Naxtra sodium-ion battery brand, April 2025, known only from a secondary summary; the company news page was fetched but no article was read. Contemporary Amperex Technology, Ningde. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Battery storage power station (national capacities, cost series, incident trend, as reported from cited sources). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Hornsdale Power Reserve (150 MW and 193.5 MWh; grid service claims from cited sources). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Wanner, B. (IEA), Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions, presentation slides, Energy Storage Summit, London, 18 February 2025 (slides summarising the IEA special report of 2024; storage capacity needed for tripled renewables; stated policies battery additions to 2030; lithium demand measures). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lithium (world mine production 2025, end uses, prices, reserves). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Annex B
Data appendix
The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.
B.1The indicator set
| Indicator | Value | Unit | Year | State | Source |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Battery storage added worldwide | 108 | GW | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| Growth over 2024 | 40 | % | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| Utility-scale share of additions | ≈80 | % | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| Lithium iron phosphate share of deployments | ≈90 | % | 2025 | Reported | 1 |
| Lithium iron phosphate share of new installations | ≈94 | % | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| Installed cost, four-hour utility-scale battery | 140 | USD per kWh | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| Turnkey price, four-hour system | 111 | USD per kWh | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| Total installed cost, pumped storage | 153 | USD per kWh | 2025 | Reported | 2 |
| US utility-scale battery capacity, end of 2025 | 43.6 | GW | 2025 | Reported | 3 |
| US utility-scale battery capacity, mid-2026 | ≈52 | GW | 2026 | Reported | 3 |
| World lithium mine production | 290 | thousand tons | 2025 | Reported | 5 |
| Share of mined cobalt from the Democratic Republic of the Congo | 73 | % | 2025 | Reported | 6 |
| China share of natural graphite production | 82 | % | 2025 | Reported | 7 |
| Storage capacity needed for tripled renewables by 2030 | >1,500 | GW | 2030 outlook | Scenario | 9 |
| Battery additions 2024 to 2030, stated policies | >700 | GW | 2030 outlook | Scenario | 9 |
| Round-trip efficiency of pumped storage | 70 to 80 | % | 2025 | Reported | 17 |
B.2Global source register
The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.
Domains bound by the register
- ENE
- INF
- FIN
- MIN
- TRD
- CLI
- DAT
- AIC
- WAT
- HLT
| Source | Category | Coverage | Period | Cadence | Role |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IEA Global Energy Review 20261 | intergovernmental agency | global | 2025 | annual | deployment |
| IRENA cost report2 | intergovernmental agency | global | 2025 | annual | cost |
| EIA Today in Energy3 | national statistics agency | US | 2026 | periodic | capacity |
| Ember review4 | think tank | global | 2025 | annual | cost and solar shifting |
| USGS lithium, cobalt, graphite567 | national geological survey | global | 2025 | annual | minerals |
| IEA Critical Minerals Outlook8 | intergovernmental agency | global | 2025 | annual | concentration and controls |
| IEA batteries slides9 | intergovernmental agency | global | 2024 | one-off | outlook |
| EU regulation and Commission page1011 | EU institution | EU | 2023 to 2025 | continuous | policy |
| IEA Global EV Outlook slides12 | intergovernmental agency | global | 2025 | annual | context |
| Form Energy page13 | vendor | global | 2026 | continuous | vendor claim |
B.3Regional reading, energy storage across ten clusters
Regional plates follow with the regional editions. This page gives the regional reading of storage deployment and supply in table form and ranks no region.
| Region | Principal hazards | Systems most exposed | Baseline evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| North America | utility-scale build-out; the largest battery plant by energy capacity is in California; trade measures on graphite | deployment, supply | EIA3; USGS7; plant list23 |
| South America | solar shifting in Chile; lithium brine producers | deployment, supply | Ember4; USGS5 |
| Europe | battery regulation and passport | regulation | EU regulation1011 |
| Eurasia | regional evidence (not bound) | not bound | regional evidence (not bound) |
| Middle East and North Africa | growing deployment in parts of the Middle East | deployment | IEA1 |
| Africa | cobalt mining; lithium output in Zimbabwe and Mali | supply | USGS56 |
| South Asia | regional evidence (not bound) | not bound | regional evidence (not bound) |
| East Asia | about 60% of 2025 additions in China; graphite and refining | deployment, supply | IEA18; USGS7 |
| ASEAN | nickel and cobalt processing; regional evidence otherwise not bound | supply | USGS6 |
| Oceania-Pacific | nearly 8 GW added in Australia in 2025; lithium mining | deployment, supply | IRENA2; USGS5 |
B.4Cluster card: battery cell and graphite supply chain
- supply chain
- graphite
- cells
- single point
- Systems in view
- mining, refining, anode and cathode materials, cell manufacturing, storage projects
- Defining events
- China export controls of 9 October 20258
- Couplings
- MIN → ENE materials; TRD → MIN export controls
- Capability evidence
- processing projects outside China reported78
- Gaps
- cell capacity by country; recycling volumes; stocks
- Agenda items
- Q-02 · Q-04
China produced an estimated 82% of natural graphite in 2025, and imports of graphite anode material into the United States rose in 2025 [7].
SUPPLY
Graphite concentration
China announced export controls on lithium-ion battery supply chains on 9 October 2025; the IEA records that proposed controls on batteries were suspended until November 2026 [8].
CONTROLS
A 2025 control package
Companies are developing spherical graphite and cathode plants in several countries; none is documented at scale here [7] [8].
RESPONSE
Processing outside China
B.5How countries appear in the energy storage edition
Countries enter the storage edition through the readiness chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.
| Card field | What it shows | Source |
|---|---|---|
| WEFH+B state | each core system against peer distribution bands | national edition |
| Couplings | the national dependency matrix | national edition |
| Risk objects | the national risk portfolio | national edition |
| Capability rungs | the national capability ladder | national edition |
| Evidence age | oldest and newest source dates | national source register |
Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme
countries and unions
clusters
flagship and sector
technology reports
How to read a country card
- Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
- Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
- Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
- Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such
| Wave | Countries and unions | State |
|---|---|---|
| W0 | Canada | ISSUED |
| W1 | United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland | PLANNED |
| W2 | Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia | PLANNED |
B.6Licences
| Material | Licence |
|---|---|
| Text | CC BY 4.0 |
| Data | on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0 |
| Figures | Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited |
| Maps | boundary source and licence printed on each plate |
| Metadata | CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it |
| Third-party data, figures and text | The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed |
| Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence. | |
B.7Formats and provenance
| Format | Kind | State | What it is | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Web edition | HTML | On this site | Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source. | NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 |
| Print edition | At release | A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release. | NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | |
| Indicator data | CSV · JSON | On this site | 16 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release. | NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1 |
| Figures | SVG · PNG | On this site | 4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder. | FIG-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-* |
| Slides | Not recorded | No slide deck is recorded for this edition. | ||
| Evidence brief | HTML · PDF | Not recorded | No evidence brief is recorded for this edition. | |
| Dataset with DOI | DataCite | At release | Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet. |
Provenance
- Edition pack
- The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
- Evidence cut
- DC-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
- Reproducibility
- sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
- Self-check
- 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
- Review
- five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
- Publisher of record
- GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
- Corrections
- Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lithium (world mine production 2025, end uses, prices, reserves). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9Wanner, B. (IEA), Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions, presentation slides, Energy Storage Summit, London, 18 February 2025 (slides summarising the IEA special report of 2024; storage capacity needed for tripled renewables; stated policies battery additions to 2030; lithium demand measures). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Pumped-storage hydroelectricity (round-trip efficiency of 70 to 80%; world capacity about 200 GW in 2025 attributed to the hydropower association). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026, 21 April 2026 (battery costs down 45% in 2025 after 20% in 2024; deployment up 46% to an estimated 250 GWh; 14% of new solar generation shifted). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 11European Commission (ed.), Batteries (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 in force 17 August 2023, applies from 18 February 2024; Delegated Regulation (EU) 2025/606 of 4 July 2025 on recycling efficiency). Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12IEA (ed.), Global EV Outlook 2026, launch webinar slides, 20 May 2026 (electric cars 25% of sales in 2025, 28% forecast for 2026; battery pack price declines in China). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13Form Energy (ed.), Battery technology page (iron-air system described as able to discharge for up to 100 hours). Vendor statement, weak evidence, not independently tested. Form Energy, Somerville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 23Wikipedia contributors (eds.), List of energy storage power plants (largest battery plants by energy capacity). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- Advanced Energy Storage 2026
- Annex C
References and record
Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.
C.148 sources
NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).
- 1IEA (ed.), Global Energy Review 2026, section Technology: Battery storage (108 GW of new battery storage deployed in 2025, 40% more than in 2024; about 80% utility-scale; lithium iron phosphate about 90% of deployments; China about 60% of additions; battery-based UPS additions up 30% to 45 GW). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 2IRENA (ed.), Renewable Power Generation Costs in 2025, 2026 (installed cost of four-hour utility-scale battery storage about USD 140 per kWh, down close to 30%; total installed cost by storage technology; solar paired with batteries). International Renewable Energy Agency, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 3US Energy Information Administration (ed.), Battery storage capacity averaged 70% growth over the last three years, Today in Energy, 7 August 2026 (43.6 GW at the end of 2025; nearly 52 GW at mid-2026; planned additions to 2028). EIA, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 4Ember (ed.), Global Electricity Review 2026, 21 April 2026 (battery costs down 45% in 2025 after 20% in 2024; deployment up 46% to an estimated 250 GWh; 14% of new solar generation shifted). Ember, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 5USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Lithium (world mine production 2025, end uses, prices, reserves). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 6USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo share, export quotas 2026 and 2027, import reliance). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 7USGS (ed.), Mineral Commodity Summaries 2026: Graphite (Natural) (China share of production, anode material imports, preliminary duties). US Geological Survey, Reston. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 8IEA (ed.), Global Critical Minerals Outlook 2026 (revised version, July 2026; concentration of refining, lithium price rise from January 2025 to April 2026, China export controls of 9 October 2025, LFP share of battery energy storage). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 9Wanner, B. (IEA), Batteries and Secure Energy Transitions, presentation slides, Energy Storage Summit, London, 18 February 2025 (slides summarising the IEA special report of 2024; storage capacity needed for tripled renewables; stated policies battery additions to 2030; lithium demand measures). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
- 10European Parliament and Council, Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 concerning batteries and waste batteries (full text; battery passport from 18 February 2027; safety of stationary battery energy storage systems, Article 12; recycled content targets). Official Journal of the European Union, Luxembourg. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 11European Commission (ed.), Batteries (policy page; Regulation (EU) 2023/1542 in force 17 August 2023, applies from 18 February 2024; Delegated Regulation (EU) 2025/606 of 4 July 2025 on recycling efficiency). Directorate-General for Environment, Brussels. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 12IEA (ed.), Global EV Outlook 2026, launch webinar slides, 20 May 2026 (electric cars 25% of sales in 2025, 28% forecast for 2026; battery pack price declines in China). International Energy Agency, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 13Form Energy (ed.), Battery technology page (iron-air system described as able to discharge for up to 100 hours). Vendor statement, weak evidence, not independently tested. Form Energy, Somerville. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 14Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Moss Landing Power Plant (fire of 16 January 2025; 300 MW and 1,200 MWh phase; about 1,200 residents evacuated). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
- 15Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Battery storage power station (national capacities, cost series, incident trend, as reported from cited sources). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 16Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Grid energy storage (pumped storage and battery capacity in 2023 from an IEA dataset). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 17Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Pumped-storage hydroelectricity (round-trip efficiency of 70 to 80%; world capacity about 200 GW in 2025 attributed to the hydropower association). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 18Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Sodium-ion battery (energy density figures; producer announcements of 2025; cost claims marked as needing update). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
- 19Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Lithium iron phosphate battery (energy density, cycle life, market share reports). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 8
- 20Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Flow battery (vanadium system of 100 MW and 400 MWh in Dalian, 2022). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 21Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Compressed-air energy storage (Huntorf, McIntosh and Zhangjiakou plants). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
- 22Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Hornsdale Power Reserve (150 MW and 193.5 MWh; grid service claims from cited sources). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 23Wikipedia contributors (eds.), List of energy storage power plants (largest battery plants by energy capacity). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.
- 24Wikipedia contributors (eds.), Cobalt (Democratic Republic of the Congo production share quoted at different values from cited sources). Secondary summary, weak evidence. Wikimedia Foundation, San Francisco. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 25UNVERIFIED, not opened: EPRI (ed.), Battery Energy Storage System Failure Incident Database (the page returned no data; incident rate figures seen only in a secondary summary). Electric Power Research Institute, Palo Alto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Department of Energy (ed.), Long Duration Storage Shot, launched 2021, cited from memory; the page address returned not found. US Department of Energy, Washington. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Renewable Energy Laboratory (ed.), Storage Futures Study, 2021, cited from memory; the host was not reachable. NREL, Golden. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: BloombergNEF (ed.), Energy Storage System Cost Survey 2025, cited only as the source of the series reported by IRENA; not opened. BloombergNEF, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lazard (ed.), Levelized Cost of Energy Plus, 2025 edition, cited from memory. Lazard, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540, Energy Storage Systems and Equipment, third edition 2023, cited from memory; the catalogue page showed no document text. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: UL Standards and Engagement (ed.), UL 9540A, Test Method for Evaluating Thermal Runaway Fire Propagation in Battery Energy Storage Systems, cited from memory. UL, Northbrook. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Fire Protection Association (ed.), NFPA 855, Standard for the Installation of Stationary Energy Storage Systems, 2023 edition, cited from memory; the page showed only the title. NFPA, Quincy. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 62619:2022, Safety requirements for secondary lithium cells and batteries for use in industrial applications, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 63056:2020, Safety requirements for secondary lithium cells and batteries for use in electrical energy storage systems, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Manual of Tests and Criteria, section 38.3, lithium metal and lithium ion batteries, cited from memory; the page returned an access error. United Nations, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Electrotechnical Commission (ed.), IEC 62933-5-2, Electrical energy storage systems, safety requirements for grid-integrated systems, electrochemical-based systems, cited from memory. IEC, Geneva. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Hydropower Association (ed.), World Hydropower Outlook 2025 (the page loaded but the report was not read; the 2025 pumped storage figure appears only in a secondary summary). IHA, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Dunn, B., Kamath, H. and Tarascon, J.-M., Electrical energy storage for the grid: a battery of choices, Science 334, 928 to 935, 2011, cited from memory. Observation year 2011. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Schmidt, O. et al., Projecting the future levelized cost of electricity storage technologies, Joule 3, 81 to 100, 2019, cited from memory. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Albertus, P., Manser, J.S. and Litzelman, S., Long-duration electricity storage applications, economics, and technologies, Joule 4, 21 to 32, 2020, cited from memory. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Sepulveda, N.A. et al., Design space for long-duration energy storage in decarbonised power systems, Nature Energy 6, 506 to 516, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Hunter, C.A. et al., Techno-economic analysis of long-duration energy storage and flexible power generation technologies to support high-variable renewable energy grids, Joule 5, 2077 to 2101, 2021, cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Armand, M. and Tarascon, J.-M., Building better batteries, Nature 451, 652 to 657, 2008, cited from memory. Observation year 2008. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Goodenough, J.B. and Park, K.-S., The Li-ion rechargeable battery: a perspective, Journal of the American Chemical Society 135, 1167 to 1176, 2013, cited from memory. Observation year 2013. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Larcher, D. and Tarascon, J.-M., Towards greener and more sustainable batteries for electrical energy storage, Nature Chemistry 7, 19 to 29, 2015, cited from memory. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Feng, X. et al., Thermal runaway mechanism of lithium ion battery for electric vehicles: a review, Energy Storage Materials 10, 246 to 267, 2018, cited from memory. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: CATL (ed.), announcement of the Naxtra sodium-ion battery brand, April 2025, known only from a secondary summary; the company news page was fetched but no article was read. Contemporary Amperex Technology, Ningde. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
- 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: US Federal Energy Regulatory Commission (ed.), Order No. 841, Electric Storage Participation in Markets Operated by Regional Transmission Organizations and Independent System Operators, February 2018, cited from memory. FERC, Washington. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
C.2Publication record
Publication
- Title
- Exponential Technology Report 2026: Advanced Energy Storage, Baseline Edition
- Series
- Reports · Exponential Technology Series XT-16
- Edition
- Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
- Version
- v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
- Publication ID
- NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Evidence close
- 30 September 2026
- Publication date
- October 2026
- DOI
- concept and version DOI at deposit
Publisher
- Publisher of record
- The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
- Place
- Toronto
- Editor
- Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
- Stewards
- GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
- Licence
- text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
- Copyright
- © 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
- Language
- English (en-GB) source edition
- Correspondence
- Registry correction pathway · editorial office
Colophon
- Format
- A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
- Typefaces
- Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
- Design standard
- Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
- Accessibility
- tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
- Production
- Reports editorial team, GCRI
Release path for this version
| Step | What happens | When |
|---|---|---|
| Draft | editorial self-check complete at evidence close | October 2026 |
| Steward review | five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N) | Q4 2026 |
| Approval | publication authority approves the exact digest | before release |
| Deposit | concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set | at release |
| Succession | the 2027 energy storage edition reports changes against this baseline | 2027 |
- Current version
- v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
- Previous edition
- none, first edition of the series
- Next edition
- NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
- Latest version
- resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
- Correction route
- Registry correction pathway
- Notice types
- erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal
C.3Corrections log
0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.
| Edition | Version | Date | State | Change | Notice |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XT-16 | NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0 | October 2026 | Draft | Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition, | None |
Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.
C.4Open record
This edition’s open record
- Publication ID
- NR-XTECH-STORAGE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
- Desk identifier and series alias
- NR-XTC-XT-16-2026-BL
- Collection
- None
- DOI
- Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
- Versions
- Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
- Bundle
- RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
- Licence
- CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0
Credit and identity
- ORCID
- Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
- ROR
- Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
- CRediT
- Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
- Account
- None needed to contribute; never a password
Find and follow
Search the open indexes for Advanced Energy Storage; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.
Mirrors and harvest
The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.
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}C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars
Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.
- F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
- F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
- F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
- Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
- XT-16 edition Reports Advanced Energy Storage 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
- F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
- F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
- Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.
What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; XT-16 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.
| Handoff | Between | What crosses, and when |
|---|---|---|
| F03 | Foundry to Reports | Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout). |
| F04 | Universe to Reports | After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review). |
| F05 | Foundry to Reports | National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review). |
| Ring | Nexus Standards to Reports | Nexus Standards: applied in editions. |
| F06 | Reports to Nexus Standards | Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction). |
| F12 | Reports to Universe | Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal). |
| Ring | Reports to Risk Academy | Risk Academy: taught in the open. |
