Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Reports
Baseline Edition 2026
Complete edition

Argentina Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of Argentina’s Interdependent Systems

Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsARG

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

Argentina 2026

The State of Argentina’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut NQ-ARG-2026-Q0-1
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Argentina Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Argentina’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/arg/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows
6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

Argentina 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables13 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

Argentina (República Argentina) enters 2027 with 46.2 million residents¹, an ageing index that rose from 40 to 53 people aged 65 or over per 100 children in twelve years², and a poverty rate that INDEC put at 32.3% of people in the first half of 2026, up from 28.2% in the second half of 2025³. Its risks come from water and from fuel. The 2022–23 drought cut the wheat harvest by 44% and, by the grain exchange’s estimate, cost the farm sector about US$33 billion¹². Paraná River flows in 2019–2022 were the lowest in 118 years of record¹⁸, and a storm in March 2025 dropped about 290 mm of rain in twelve hours on Bahía Blanca, against a previous record of 167.6 mm¹⁴. On energy, low-carbon sources supplied 42% of electricity in 2025⁸ while crude oil output passed 900,000 barrels a day in 2026¹⁰. The national inventory reports 400.9 MtCO₂e including land use for 2022⁴, and the 2025 climate contribution sets a net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035⁶. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Argentina’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which drought, flood, fire and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing and compares no one.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Argentina baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

400.9 MtCO₂e in 2022 including land use; 377.8 net on the contribution basis. Later years are not bound.⁴
Where do emissions stand?Reported
375 MtCO₂e net for 2030 and 2035, announced November 2025.⁶
What is the climate ceiling?Reported
Low-carbon sources gave 42% of electricity in 2025.⁸
How secure is power?Reported
The 2022–23 drought cut wheat by 44%. A record wheat harvest was estimated for 2025–26.¹²¹³
How secure is food?Reported
Paraná flows in 2019–2022 were the lowest in 118 years of record.¹⁸
How exposed is water?Reported
A record storm can overwhelm a port city in hours.¹⁴¹⁵
What did Bahía Blanca show?Reported
Poverty was 32.3% of people in the first half of 2026.³
Who carries the strain?Reported
A multi-year drought with low river flows hitting harvests, exports, hydropower and revenue. SCN-ARG-DRT-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

The 2022–23 drought cut the wheat harvest by 44% to 12.4 million tonnes and soybeans to 25 million tonnes, the lowest in 23 years, and the grain exchange put farm-sector losses at about US$33 billion.

Figure S.1Harvest estimates, 2022–23 drought (million tonnes)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Wheat		12.4
Soybeans		25
Maize		36

Source: Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires, as reported¹². Soybean and maize figures are estimates made during the season.

Grain exports carry foreign-currency earnings and public revenue. A drought that cuts the harvest also cuts both, and low river flows add a logistics cost on the Paraná¹²¹⁸.

S.4At a glance

46.2million

population, 2022¹

53per 100

people aged 65+ per 100 aged 0–14, 2022²

400.9MtCO₂e

inventory total incl. land use, 2022⁴

42%

low-carbon share of electricity, 2025⁸

10.4%

land protected, 2025²¹

32.3%

people below the poverty line, H1 2026³

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Argentina’s risk: water extremes dominate the farm economy, the energy system is changing, and public finances limit the buffer.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a price rise, a flood or a dry season.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Grain earnings carry public revenue, and the IMF programme frames fiscal room.

NEXUS

Synthesis

Argentina holds long weather and river records, and thinner evidence on storage, reserves and service continuity.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Argentina’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC) (ed.), Censo Nacional de Población, Hogares y Viviendas 2022: resultados definitivos (46,234,830 inhabitants; reference date 1 July 2022). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022. Read via press reports of the release, 2026-11-03.back
2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Announcement of Argentina’s nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 3 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/484146, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Wheat estimate for 2025/26 (25.5 Mt), as reported by the press, 28 November 2025. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Estimate, not a final figure.back
15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data.back
21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary.back

Argentina 2026
Chapter 1

Argentina’s risk is hydrological and fiscal at once

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no province.

7 min read2 figures2 tables15 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is Argentina’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five system chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

Argentina is a large producer of grain, meat and, increasingly, oil and gas. Its systems are tied to the weather of the Pampas and the flow of the Paraná. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: drought and flood, a power and fuel system that is changing fast, and public finances that leave little room to absorb shocks.

The water layer dominates the farm economy. The 2022–23 drought cut the wheat harvest by 44% to 12.4 million tonnes, soybeans fell to 25 million tonnes, and the grain exchange put farm-sector losses at about US$33 billion¹². The Paraná, the route for most grain exports, ran at its lowest flows in 118 years of record across 2019–2022¹⁸. The other face of the same hydrology is flood. A storm on 7 March 2025 dropped about 290 mm of rain in twelve hours on Bahía Blanca, and sixteen deaths were reported¹⁴¹⁵.

The fire layer follows drought. Fires affected 723,765 hectares in 2022, more than twice the 2021 area, and satellite analysis put the Corrientes burn at about 1.04 million hectares¹⁶¹⁷. The wider regional picture for 2025 shows record heat, persistent drought and glacier retreat across Latin America¹⁹.

The energy layer is moving on two tracks. Low-carbon sources supplied 42% of electricity in 2025⁸, and crude oil output passed 900,000 barrels a day in 2026¹⁰. The national inventory reports 400.9 MtCO₂e including land use for 2022⁴, and the 2025 climate contribution sets a net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035⁶.

The social layer sets how much shock the country can absorb. INDEC put poverty at 32.3% of people in the first half of 2026³. The ageing index reached 53 people aged 65 or over per 100 children in 2022, from 40 in 2010². The public sector operates under a US$20 billion IMF programme agreed in 2025²⁶.

This edition therefore reads Argentina’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1Where do reported emissions and ceilings sit? Argentina’s totals and targets (MtCO₂e)

The inventory total including land use was 401 MtCO₂e in 2022, and the net figure on the NDC basis was 378. The ceiling for 2030 and 2035 is 375⁴⁶. The gap between the two 2022 totals is 23 MtCO₂e and reflects differing accounting scopes.

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
2018 net (BUR4)		366
2021 net (NDC basis)		372
2022 net (NDC basis)		378
2022 inventory incl. land use		401
2030 and 2035 ceiling (2025 NDC)		375

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2022.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-01-003

400.9MtCO₂e

inventory total, 2022⁴

377.8MtCO₂e

net on NDC basis, 2022⁴

349MtCO₂e

2030 ceiling, 2021 NDC⁴²

375MtCO₂e

2030 and 2035 ceiling, 2025 NDC⁶

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Argentina matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	STRONG hydropower · cooling	STRONG rain-fed yield · irrigation	MODERATE drinking water	STRONG flows · wetlands
ENE Energy	MODERATE pumping · treatment	·	STRONG fuel · fertiliser · cold chain	STRONG facility power · cooling	MODERATE reservoirs · land use
FOO Food	MODERATE withdrawals · nutrients	WEAK biofuel feedstock	·	STRONG nutrition · food safety	STRONG land conversion
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	MODERATE labour · disease	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	STRONG regulation · filtration	MODERATE fire on lines · biomass	STRONG pollination · soils	MODERATE zoonoses · smoke	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
CLI → WAT → FOO
Drought and low river flows cut harvests and lift export logistics costs.
Reported 2022–23¹²¹⁸
02
CLI → WAT → INF
Record rain floods a port city and its lifelines.
Reported Bahía Blanca 2025¹⁴
03
CLI → BIO
Dry conditions feed large fires in wetlands and savanna.
Reported Corrientes 2022¹⁷
04
WAT → ENE
Dry years cut hydropower and raise reliance on thermal generation.
Inferred not bound for Argentina
05
FOO → FIN
A poor harvest cuts export earnings and public revenue.
Inferred 2022–23¹²

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
Loop	First direction	Second direction
WAT and BIO	Water to biodiversity: flows · wetlands	Biodiversity to water: regulation · filtration
FOO and BIO	Food to biodiversity: land conversion	Biodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data.back
16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
17Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (ed.), Satellite monitoring of fires in Corrientes, 2022 (1,042,514 hectares), as reported by the press. INTA, Buenos Aires, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://wmo.int/node/38574, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Announcement of Argentina’s nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 3 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/484146, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
26International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 25/095: IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Argentina on a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (US$20 billion). IMF, Washington, DC, 8 April 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/08/pr25095-argentina-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-argentina-on-a-48-month-eff, accessed 2026-11-03.back
42Government of Argentina (ed.), Argentina’s updated nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 349 MtCO₂e in 2030), submitted to the UNFCCC 2 November 2021, as recorded by Climate Action Tracker. Buenos Aires, 2021. Observation year 2021.back

Argentina 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables21 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006

Figure 2.1Harvest estimates, 2022–23 drought (million tonnes)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Wheat		12.4
Soybeans		25
Maize		36

Source: Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires, as reported¹². Soybean and maize figures are estimates made during the season.

Implication

Grain exports carry foreign-currency earnings and public revenue. A drought that cuts the harvest also cuts both, and low river flows add a logistics cost on the Paraná¹²¹⁸.

What would move it

Seasonal rainfall outlooks, Paraná levels at Rosario and the wheat and maize estimates of the grain exchanges would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001
The national inventory reports 400.9 MtCO₂e including land use for 2022, and 377.8 MtCO₂e net on the climate-contribution basis.⁴
ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002
The 2025 climate contribution sets a net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035, against 349 MtCO₂e for 2030 in the 2021 update.⁵⁶⁷
ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007
A storm on 7 March 2025 dropped about 290 mm of rain in twelve hours on Bahía Blanca, against a previous record of 167.6 mm, and sixteen deaths were reported.¹⁴¹⁵
ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008
Fires affected 723,765 hectares in 2022, more than twice the 2021 area, and satellite analysis put the Corrientes burn at about 1.04 million hectares.¹⁶¹⁷

2.3Energy

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003
Low-carbon sources supplied 42% of electricity in 2025, and renewables including large hydro covered 40.2% of demand.⁸⁹
ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004
Crude oil output reached 916,200 barrels a day in July 2026, up 17.2% year on year to June, led by shale in the Neuquén basin.¹⁰¹¹

2.4Water

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005
The 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years had the largest negative Paraná flow anomalies in 118 years of record.¹⁸

2.5Food

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-FOO-006
The 2022–23 drought cut the wheat harvest by 44% to 12.4 million tonnes and soybeans to 25 million tonnes; farm-sector losses were put at about US$33 billion.¹²

2.6Health

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009
The 2025–26 dengue season closed with about 70 confirmed cases against 27,178 suspected, while chikungunya reached 3,730 confirmed or probable cases, mostly in the north-west.²⁰

2.7Finance

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010
Poverty was 32.3% of people in the first half of 2026, up 4.1 points on the second half of 2025, under a US$20 billion IMF programme.³²⁶⁴³

2.8Biodiversity

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011
Protected areas covered about 10.4% of land and 8.5% of the sea in 2025, and one NGO survey counted 94,204 hectares of native forest cleared in the north in 2025.²¹²²²³

2.9Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a multi-year drought with low Paraná flows that cuts harvests, river exports, hydropower and public revenue together. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
5Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible (ed.), Cuarto Informe Bienal de Actualización de la República Argentina a la CMNUCC (BUR4). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2021. Observation year 2018. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/4to%20Informe%20Bienal%20de%20la%20Rep%C3%BAblica%20Argentina.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Announcement of Argentina’s nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 3 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/484146, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Argentina: targets. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, data as of June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/argentina/targets/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data.back
16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
17Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (ed.), Satellite monitoring of fires in Corrientes, 2022 (1,042,514 hectares), as reported by the press. INTA, Buenos Aires, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9CAMMESA (ed.), Annual electricity demand and renewable coverage 2025 (141,249 GWh; renewables 40.21% including large hydro; 738 MW added), as reported by the generators’ chamber. CAMMESA, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Read via trade press summary.back
10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11International Energy Agency (ed.), Latin America Energy Outlook, Overview: Argentina. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation years 2021–2022. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1fe309e7-95f1-48a8-b32f-4bea94de4fbe/Argentinaenergyprofile_EN.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back
3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
26International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 25/095: IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Argentina on a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (US$20 billion). IMF, Washington, DC, 8 April 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/08/pr25095-argentina-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-argentina-on-a-48-month-eff, accessed 2026-11-03.back
43INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, segundo semestre de 2025 (poverty 28.2% of people). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Figure read via press summaries.back
21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary.back
22Wildlife Conservation Society Argentina (ed.), Protected-area coverage and strict protection (about 2.2% of land and 5.8% of sea). WCS Argentina, Buenos Aires, June 2025. Observation year 2025.back
23Greenpeace Argentina (ed.), Informe anual de deforestación en el norte de Argentina 2025 (94,204 hectares of native forest cleared; 116,498 hectares burned). Greenpeace Argentina, Buenos Aires, February 2026. Observation year 2025. NGO survey, not an official series.back

Argentina 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables19 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Hydrological years with the largest negative Paraná flow anomalies in 118 years of record

3years

The years 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 were the three lowest-flow years in the Timbúes record.

Reported2022Paraná flow analysis¹⁸

ENE · Energy

Low-carbon share of electricity generation

42%

Close to the world average of 43%. Renewables including large hydro covered 40.2% of demand.

Reported2025Ember⁸ · CAMMESA⁹

FOO · Food

Change in the wheat harvest in the 2022–23 drought

−44%

Final harvest 12.4 million tonnes. The 2025–26 estimate rose to 25.5 million tonnes.

Reported2023Bolsa de Cereales¹²¹³

HLT · Health

Heat-related deaths, national season total

Not boundMinisterio de Salud · blocker: no national total retrieved

A national heat-mortality series would fill this tile. None was found at evidence close.

Not boundn/aMinisterio de Salud²⁰

BIO · Biodiversity

Land in protected areas

10.4%

Marine protected area 8.5%, against 30% by 2030. An older federal system count gave 15.9% on land.

Reported2025Ecología Austral study²¹

SYS · Cross-system

Rain in about twelve hours at Bahía Blanca, 7 March 2025

290mm

The previous record was 167.6 mm in 1933. Sixteen deaths were reported.

Reported2025SMN via press¹⁴¹⁵

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Large river basins; record low Paraná flows 2019–22; flash floods in coastal and Pampas cities.	WAT → FOO · WAT ↔ ENE	Reported EQL 4
ENE	Low-carbon share 42%; oil output at a record; gas and hydro balance in dry years not bound.	ENE ← WAT · ENE → all	Reported EQL 3
FOO	Major grain exporter; harvests swing with rainfall; wheat estimate record in 2025–26.	FOO ← WAT, CLI	Reported EQL 3
HLT	Ageing index 53 per 100; dengue season low in 2025–26; chikungunya in the north-west.	HLT ← CLI	Reported EQL 3
BIO	Protected land 10.4% and sea 8.5%; forest loss in the north reported by NGO survey.	BIO ↔ WAT, FOO	Reported EQL 3
CLI	Drought, fire and flood in successive years; record rain at Bahía Blanca in 2025.	forcing on all systems	Reported EQL 4
INF	River ports and grain logistics depend on Paraná depth; wider networks not mapped.	INF → all	Inferred EQL 2
FIN	US$20 billion IMF programme; poverty 32.3% in H1 2026.	FIN ← CLI	Reported EQL 4
DAT	Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.	DAT → ENE, FIN	Expert input EQL 1
AIC	Data-centre and compute demand on power and water not bound.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 1
MIN	Second-largest lithium producer in Latin America and the Caribbean.	MIN ← TRD	Reported EQL 3
TRD	Grain, oil and gas exports tie national accounts to weather and prices.	TRD → all	Inferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	compound drought, river and fiscal stress	drought with low river flows	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	river flows and flash floods¹⁴¹⁸	drought; flood	PARTIAL
GS-02	Energy	low-carbon share 42%⁸; oil record¹⁰	dry-year power balance	PARTIAL
GS-03	Food	drought loss and wheat rebound¹²¹³	harvest swings	GOOD
GS-04	Health	ageing; dengue and chikungunya²²⁰	heat; vector-borne disease	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance	IMF programme²⁶; poverty³	fiscal shock cost	PARTIAL
GS-06	Development	poverty 32.3%³	service strain	PARTIAL
GS-07	Climate	extremes in successive years¹⁴¹⁶¹⁹	drought, rain, fire	GOOD
GS-08	Disaster	national risk-management law³⁰	flash flood and fire	THIN
GS-09	Infrastructure	river ports and grid; not mapped	low river; storms	THIN
GS-10	Cities	Bahía Blanca flood¹⁴¹⁵	urban flooding	PARTIAL
GS-11	Biodiversity	protected area 10.4% land²¹	forest and wetland loss	PARTIAL
GS-12	Earth observation	national weather and satellite records used¹⁴¹⁷	continuity	PARTIAL
GS-13	Cyber and digital	dependencies not yet mapped	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy	climate law and forest law²⁷²⁸	coordination across levels	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	peer-reviewed basin research¹⁸	translation to regions	PARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9CAMMESA (ed.), Annual electricity demand and renewable coverage 2025 (141,249 GWh; renewables 40.21% including large hydro; 738 MW added), as reported by the generators’ chamber. CAMMESA, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Read via trade press summary.back
12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
13Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Wheat estimate for 2025/26 (25.5 Mt), as reported by the press, 28 November 2025. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Estimate, not a final figure.back
20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back
21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary.back
14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data.back
10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
26International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 25/095: IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Argentina on a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (US$20 billion). IMF, Washington, DC, 8 April 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/08/pr25095-argentina-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-argentina-on-a-48-month-eff, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://wmo.int/node/38574, accessed 2026-11-03.back
30Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.287, Sistema Nacional para la Gestión Integral del Riesgo y la Protección Civil. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2016. Observation year 2016.back
17Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (ed.), Satellite monitoring of fires in Corrientes, 2022 (1,042,514 hectares), as reported by the press. INTA, Buenos Aires, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
27Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
28Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.331, Presupuestos mínimos de protección ambiental de los bosques nativos. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2007. Observation year 2007.back

Argentina 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table7 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

ReportedEQL 4RSK-ARG-CLI-001
Multi-year drought and low river flows
Driver
rainfall deficit across the Pampas and the Paraná basin
Exposure
grain harvests, river ports, hydropower, public revenue
Vulnerability
export dependence; fiscal room under an IMF programme
Capacity
not bound at evidence close
Cascade
CLI → WAT → FOO, ENE, FIN, TRD
Horizon
1–5 years
ReportedEQL 3RSK-ARG-CLI-002
Flash flood and storm in a port or river city
Driver
extreme rainfall over urban catchments
Exposure
coastal and river cities, lifelines, homes
Vulnerability
drainage capacity; uninsured households
Capacity
national risk-management law exists³⁰; drill records not bound
Cascade
CLI → WAT → INF, HLT, FIN
Horizon
annual
ReportedEQL 3RSK-ARG-BIO-003
Large fire in wetlands, savanna or forest
Driver
drought and ignition in dry vegetation
Exposure
Corrientes, the Paraná delta, northern forests
Vulnerability
dry peat and grass; remote response
Capacity
national fire management service reports¹⁶
Cascade
CLI → BIO → HLT, WAT
Horizon
seasonal
InferredEQL 2RSK-ARG-HLT-004
Heat and vector-borne disease load on health services
Driver
hotter seasons and mosquito range
Exposure
north-west and north-east provinces, older adults
Vulnerability
ageing index 53 per 100²
Capacity
epidemiological bulletin in weekly use²⁰
Cascade
CLI → HLT → ENE peak
Horizon
seasonal

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	LISTED	national climate change law sets budgets and plans²⁷
Monitoring and observation	EXISTS	national weather service and hydrological records used in this edition¹⁴¹⁸
Early warning	NOT BOUND	source: SMN and civil protection warning records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planning	LISTED	national risk-management system created by law³⁰; drill records not bound
Redundancy and reserves	NOT BOUND	source: Secretaría de Energía and basin storage data · blocker: not retrieved
Response	NOT BOUND	source: civil protection event reports · blocker: not reviewed
Continuity of critical services	NOT BOUND	source: utility restoration records for Bahía Blanca · blocker: not retrieved
Recovery	NOT BOUND	source: recovery and fund disbursement records · blocker: not published in the sources read
Adaptation	LISTED	adaptation duties set by the climate change law²⁷
Social protection	NOT BOUND	source: national social-protection programme data · blocker: not reviewed
Finance and insurance	NOT BOUND	source: insurance regulator loss and cover data · blocker: not retrieved
Institutional coordination	LISTED	national risk-management system and climate cabinet created by law²⁷³⁰
Technical infrastructure	NOT BOUND	source: grid and port asset registers · blocker: not mapped at public-safe resolution
Workforce	NOT BOUND	source: health and civil protection workforce data · blocker: not reviewed
Research capacity	EXISTS	peer-reviewed flow analysis of the Paraná basin published¹⁸
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

30Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.287, Sistema Nacional para la Gestión Integral del Riesgo y la Protección Civil. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2016. Observation year 2016.back
16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back
27Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back

Argentina 2026
Chapter 5

Multi-year drought with low Paraná flows

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables2 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-ARG-DRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: two consecutive seasons of rainfall deficit over the Pampas and the upper Paraná basin, with low river levels in the export season
Analogues: the 2022–23 drought¹²; Paraná low flows 2019–2022¹⁸
Interventions: none modelled; the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
CLI → WAT
rainfall deficit and low river levels
2022–23 · 2019–22
2
WAT → FOO
harvests fall; wheat fell 44% in 2022–23
2022–23
3
WAT → INF
vessels load less cargo at river ports
Paraná 2021–22
4
WAT → ENE
hydropower falls; thermal generation fills the gap
not bound
5
FOO → FIN
export earnings and public revenue fall
2022–23
6
CLI → BIO
dry vegetation burns in the north-east and the delta
Corrientes 2022

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-ARG-DRT-01 would travel through Argentina’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Climate to water	Rainfall deficit and low river levels. Analogue or source: 2022–23 · 2019–22.	Edition ARG, scenario SCN-ARG-DRT-01, step 1
02 Water to food	Harvests fall; wheat fell 44% in 2022–23. Analogue or source: 2022–23.	Edition ARG, scenario SCN-ARG-DRT-01, step 2
03 Water to infrastructure	Vessels load less cargo at river ports. Analogue or source: Paraná 2021–22.	Edition ARG, scenario SCN-ARG-DRT-01, step 3
04 Water to energy	Hydropower falls; thermal generation fills the gap. Analogue or source: not bound.	Edition ARG, scenario SCN-ARG-DRT-01, step 4
05 Food to finance	Export earnings and public revenue fall. Analogue or source: 2022–23.	Edition ARG, scenario SCN-ARG-DRT-01, step 5
06 Climate to biodiversity	Dry vegetation burns in the north-east and the delta. Analogue or source: Corrientes 2022.	Edition ARG, scenario SCN-ARG-DRT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Argentina 2026, scenario SCN-ARG-DRT-01 (2026); Argentina 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back

Argentina 2026
Chapter 6

Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

14 min read0 figures8 tables37 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Argentina’s risk: water extremes dominate the farm economy, the energy system is changing, and public finances limit the buffer. Evidence is strongest for emissions, harvests and storms, and weakest for reservoir storage, heat deaths and lifeline continuity.

CLI-001 · FOO-006 · WAT-005 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people risk arrives as a price rise, a flood or a dry season. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how poverty at 32.3% changes who can absorb a bad harvest or a flooded home.

FIN-010 · CLI-007 · HLT-009

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Grain earnings carry public revenue, and the IMF programme frames fiscal room²⁶. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or a recommendation.

FIN-010 · FOO-006

NEXUS

Synthesis

Argentina holds long weather and river records, and thinner evidence on storage, reserves and service continuity. The 2027 programme should test the drought–river–revenue chain, map the gas and hydro balance in dry years and bind a national heat-mortality series.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Argentina. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
GCRI Canada	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Argentina	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Argentina’s grain earnings rise and fall with rain and river levels. The baseline treats drought and low flows as one coupled problem, not as separate agriculture and logistics issues.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Water decides the farm economy

The country that lost a wheat crop to drought also saw a year of rain fall in hours on one port city. Planning for one without the other leaves a gap.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Flood is the other face of the same hydrology

Low-carbon power and record oil output sit side by side. Dry-year power balance and gas storage are the evidence still missing.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Energy is changing faster than its evidence

Households with little margin absorb a bad harvest or a flood badly. Every risk object in this edition is read through that lens.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Poverty sets the size of the buffer

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement · climate contribution, net ceiling 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035⁶³⁵	UNFCCC · Argentina	national	ANNOUNCED 2025	emissions pathway
Law 27.520 on minimum budgets for climate change adaptation and mitigation²⁷	Government of Argentina	national	IN FORCE	climate governance
Law 26.331 on minimum budgets for native forests²⁸	Government of Argentina	national	IN FORCE	forest protection
Law 27.191 on renewable energy²⁹	Government of Argentina	national	IN FORCE	power mix
Law 27.287 national risk-management system³⁰	Government of Argentina	national	IN FORCE	disaster management
Law 26.639 on glacier preservation³¹	Government of Argentina	national	IN FORCE · AMENDMENT STATUS NOT VERIFIED	water sources
Law 25.675 general environmental law⁴¹	Government of Argentina	national	IN FORCE	environmental baseline
Kunming-Montreal Framework³⁴	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30
Sendai Framework³³	UNDRR	international	ADOPTED 2015	disaster risk reduction

Changed since 2024

The climate contribution announced in November 2025 sets a net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035⁶
The IMF agreed a 48-month programme in 2025 and reached staff-level agreement on its second review in April 2026²⁶⁴⁴
The UNFCCC technical review of the first transparency report was published in January 2026⁴

To watch in 2027

Formal registration and review of the 2035 contribution⁷
Any change to the forest law, reported by one NGO as under consideration²³
Any change to the glacier law, status not verified at evidence close³¹

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about Argentina’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)³²	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)³⁶	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.³⁷	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
WMO regional report¹⁹	assessment	2026	supports	regional extremes
Paraná flow analysis¹⁸	journal article	2022	supports	low flows
Foundational Edition³⁹	Reports	2026	framework	method
Global baseline⁴⁰	Reports	2026	framework	global anchor

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
UNFCCC technical review⁴	UNFCCC	2026	supports	inventory
Fourth Biennial Update Report⁵	Ministry of Environment	2021	supports	emissions
IMF programme release²⁶	IMF	2025	context	fiscal
IEA energy overview¹¹	IEA	2023	context	energy
Deforestation report²⁴	IFPRI	2025	supports	forests
World Health Statistics³⁸	WHO	2025	context	health

Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Census 2022¹	INDEC	2022	supports	profile
Demographic indicators²	INDEC	2023	supports	ageing
Poverty release³	INDEC	2026	supports	social strain
Epidemiological bulletin²⁰	Ministerio de Salud	2026	supports	vector-borne disease
Climate contribution page⁶	Government of Argentina	2025	supports	targets

Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Harvest estimates¹²¹³	Bolsa de Cereales	2023–25	supports	food
Fire statistics¹⁶	SNMF via Chequeado	2023	supports	fire
Electricity data⁸⁹	Ember · CAMMESA	2025	supports	power
Protected-area studies²¹²²	Ecología Austral · WCS	2025	supports	biodiversity

Where the evidence agrees

The climate of southern South America is changing and extremes are intensifying¹⁹³²
Compound events raise risk beyond the sum of their parts³⁷
The Paraná basin had its lowest flows in 118 years in 2019–2022¹⁸

Where it is unsettled

How to account for land-use emissions on a single basis⁴
How fast low-carbon power can displace gas in dry years⁸
How much heat mortality is recorded and reported

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

26International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 25/095: IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Argentina on a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (US$20 billion). IMF, Washington, DC, 8 April 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/08/pr25095-argentina-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-argentina-on-a-48-month-eff, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Announcement of Argentina’s nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 3 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/484146, accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
27Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019.back
28Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.331, Presupuestos mínimos de protección ambiental de los bosques nativos. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2007. Observation year 2007.back
29Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.191, Régimen de fomento nacional para el uso de fuentes renovables de energía destinada a la producción de energía eléctrica. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
30Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.287, Sistema Nacional para la Gestión Integral del Riesgo y la Protección Civil. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2016. Observation year 2016.back
31Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.639, Régimen de presupuestos mínimos para la preservación de los glaciares y del ambiente periglacial. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2010. Observation year 2010. Amendment status not verified.back
41Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 25.675, Ley General del Ambiente. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2002. Observation year 2002.back
34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015.back
44International Monetary Fund (ed.), Argentina: second review under the Extended Fund Facility, staff-level agreement, as reported by MercoPress, 15 April 2026. IMF, Washington, DC, 2026. Observation year 2026. Context only.back
4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Argentina: targets. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, data as of June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/argentina/targets/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Greenpeace Argentina (ed.), Informe anual de deforestación en el norte de Argentina 2025 (94,204 hectares of native forest cleared; 116,498 hectares burned). Greenpeace Argentina, Buenos Aires, February 2026. Observation year 2025. NGO survey, not an official series.back
32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
36P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 back
37J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018.back
19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://wmo.int/node/38574, accessed 2026-11-03.back
18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
39S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026.back
5Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible (ed.), Cuarto Informe Bienal de Actualización de la República Argentina a la CMNUCC (BUR4). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2021. Observation year 2018. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/4to%20Informe%20Bienal%20de%20la%20Rep%C3%BAblica%20Argentina.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
11International Energy Agency (ed.), Latin America Energy Outlook, Overview: Argentina. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation years 2021–2022. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1fe309e7-95f1-48a8-b32f-4bea94de4fbe/Argentinaenergyprofile_EN.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
24N. Jorge (ed.), Argentina report on deforestation 2000–2024. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, 5 September 2025. Observation years 2000–2024. Listed via the FAO AGRIS record; not read in full.back
38World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025. Context only.back
1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC) (ed.), Censo Nacional de Población, Hogares y Viviendas 2022: resultados definitivos (46,234,830 inhabitants; reference date 1 July 2022). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022. Read via press reports of the release, 2026-11-03.back
2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back
12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
13Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Wheat estimate for 2025/26 (25.5 Mt), as reported by the press, 28 November 2025. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Estimate, not a final figure.back
16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9CAMMESA (ed.), Annual electricity demand and renewable coverage 2025 (141,249 GWh; renewables 40.21% including large hydro; 738 MW added), as reported by the generators’ chamber. CAMMESA, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Read via trade press summary.back
21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary.back
22Wildlife Conservation Society Argentina (ed.), Protected-area coverage and strict protection (about 2.2% of land and 5.8% of sea). WCS Argentina, Buenos Aires, June 2025. Observation year 2025.back

Argentina 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

A-01
How would a multi-year drought with low Paraná flows cut harvests, river exports, hydropower and public revenue together?
INI-ARG-WAT-01 · drought–river–revenue test; first output: dependency graph for the Paraná basin.
A-02
How does the gas and hydro balance hold in a dry, cold year as oil and gas output grow?
INI-ARG-ENE-02 · power in dry years; first output: generation-mix and storage register.
A-03
How exposed are grain exports to river logistics and weather together?
INI-ARG-FOO-03 · export exposure; first output: commodity and route dependence table.
A-04
How much surge capacity do health services hold for heat and vector-borne disease?
INI-ARG-HLT-04 · heat and vectors; first output: surge baseline for five provinces.
A-05
Where do flash floods and storms fall on uninsured households and public budgets?
INI-ARG-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-province loss table.
A-06
How do fire and drought interact in the Paraná delta and the north-east?
INI-ARG-BIO-01 · fire and wetlands; first output: fire-season exposure note.
A-07
How would a changed forest or glacier law alter basin risk?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only listed?
National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-ARG-WAT-01	Drought, river and revenue test for the Paraná basin	Initiative	A-01	PROPOSED
INI-ARG-ENE-02	Power balance in dry years	Initiative	A-02	PROPOSED
INI-ARG-FOO-03	Grain export exposure to weather and river logistics	Initiative	A-03	PROPOSED
INI-ARG-HLT-04	Heat and vector-borne disease surge baseline	Initiative	A-04	PROPOSED
INI-ARG-FIN-05	Flash flood and storm protection gap	Initiative	A-05	PROPOSED
PRJ-ARG-WAT-01a	Paraná basin dependency graph	Project	A-01	PROPOSED
MSN-ARG-2027-01	Drought–river–revenue Universe mission	Mission	A-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

Argentina is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Argentina from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

01
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment
02
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027
03
National Model
the country as a system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut
04
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment
05
Foundry
continuous computational environment
PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-ARG-2027-Q1
06
Reports
quarterly and annual publication
BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda
07
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027
08
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	Q4 2027 annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-ARG-2027-01 · Drought–river–revenue Universe mission
Role spine: Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
CLI-001 · emissions	public record	reference for the 2027 series	PUBLIC
WAT-005 · Paraná flows	INI-ARG-WAT-01	drought–river–revenue test	PUBLIC
ENE-003 · power mix	INI-ARG-ENE-02	dry-year balance	PUBLIC
FOO-006 · drought	INI-ARG-FOO-03	export exposure	PUBLIC
HLT-009 · vector-borne disease	INI-ARG-HLT-04	heat and vectors	PUBLIC
CLI-007 · Bahía Blanca	INI-ARG-FIN-05 · key F review	protection gap	PUBLIC
BIO-011 · protected land	INI-ARG-BIO-01	fire and wetlands	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-ARG-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the national pathway	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Weather and rainfall alerts	Servicio Meteorológico Nacional	real time	CLI findings
River level and hydrological reports	Instituto Nacional del Agua	periodic	WAT-005
Electricity demand and supply	CAMMESA	daily	ENE findings
Crude oil and gas output	Secretaría de Energía	monthly	ENE-004
Harvest and planting estimates	Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires	weekly in season	FOO-006
Fire and burned-area reports	Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego	seasonal	CLI-008
Epidemiological bulletin	Ministerio de Salud	weekly	HLT-009
Poverty and price series	INDEC	half-yearly and monthly	FIN-010

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
quarterly publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-ARG-001	Record rain at Bahía Blanca on 7 March 2025¹⁴	CORROBORATED	CLI · WAT · INF	risk object RSK-ARG-CLI-002
SIG-ARG-002	Record crude oil output in 2026¹⁰	CORROBORATED	ENE · FIN	initiative A-02
SIG-ARG-003	Poverty rise in the first half of 2026³	CORROBORATED	FIN · HLT	initiative A-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back

Argentina 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables20 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Argentina’s farm and export economy runs on rain and on the Paraná. Low flows, flash floods and drought are the binding water risks. Drinking-water coverage was not bound at evidence close.

118years

of Paraná record, lowest flows 2019–22¹⁸

290mm

rain in 12 hours at Bahía Blanca, 2025¹⁴

Not boundJMP

drinking-water coverage⁴⁶

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Low flows	largest negative anomalies in 118 years of record	¹⁸	Reported
Flash flood	record rain at Bahía Blanca, sixteen deaths reported	¹⁴¹⁵	Reported
Glaciers	glacier preservation law in force	³¹	Reported
Coverage	water and sanitation coverage by province	⁴⁶	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

WAT → FOO rainfall and river flow
WAT → ENE hydropower
CLI → WAT drought and heavy rain
WAT → HLT drinking water

Evidence to bind in 2027

reservoir and aquifer storage
drinking-water and sanitation coverage

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Low-carbon sources supplied 42% of electricity in 2025, and crude oil output passed 900,000 barrels a day in 2026. Dry-year power balance and gas output were not bound.

42%

low-carbon share of electricity, 2025⁸

916,200barrels a day

crude oil, Jul 2026¹⁰

738MW

new renewable capacity, 2025⁹

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Power mix	low-carbon 42% of electricity	⁸	Reported
Demand	141,249 GWh, with renewables covering 40.2%	⁹	Reported
Oil	record output led by shale	¹⁰¹¹	Reported
Gas output	official series not retrieved	⁴⁷	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

WAT → ENE hydropower
ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
CLI → ENE peak demand
BIO → ENE fire on lines

Evidence to bind in 2027

gas production series
dry-year hydropower shortfall

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Argentina is a large grain exporter, and harvests swing with rainfall. The 2022–23 drought cut wheat by 44%, and a record wheat harvest was estimated for 2025–26.

44%

wheat fall, 2022–23¹²

12.4Mt

wheat harvest, 2022–23¹²

25.5Mt

wheat estimate, 2025–26¹³

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Drought loss	wheat 12.4 Mt, soybeans 25 Mt, maize 36 Mt	¹²	Reported
Losses	about US$33 billion, grain exchange estimate	¹²	Reported
Rebound	wheat estimate 25.5 Mt for 2025–26	¹³	Reported
Trade flows	maize and feed trade volumes not retrieved	⁴⁷	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

WAT → FOO rain and irrigation
ENE → FOO fuel and fertiliser
CLI → FOO heat and drought

Evidence to bind in 2027

final 2025–26 harvest
export volumes by route

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Argentina is an ageing country, and its health services face vector-borne disease and, in some seasons, heat. A national heat-mortality series was not bound at evidence close.

53per 100

ageing index, 2022²

≈70cases

dengue confirmed, 2025–26²⁰

3,730cases

chikungunya, 2025–26²⁰

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Ageing	index of 53 per 100, from 40 in 2010	²	Reported
Dengue	about 70 confirmed against 27,178 suspected	²⁰	Reported
Chikungunya	3,730 confirmed or probable, mostly north-west	²⁰	Reported
Heat deaths	national season total not retrieved	²⁰	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

CLI → HLT heat and vectors
WAT → HLT drinking water
ENE → HLT cooling and power

Evidence to bind in 2027

heat deaths
surge capacity in health services

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Protected areas cover about 10.4% of land and 8.5% of the sea, well short of the 30% goal, and fire and clearing continue in the north. Official forest area was not bound.

10.4%

of land protected, 2025²¹

8.5%

of sea protected, 2025²¹

30%

target by 2030³⁴

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Protection	land 10.41%, sea 8.49%; older federal count gave 15.9% on land	²¹²²	Reported
Strict protection	about 2.2% of land and 5.8% of sea	²²	Reported
Clearing	94,204 hectares cleared in the north in 2025, NGO survey	²³	Reported
Forest area	official area and loss not retrieved; the Chaco region holds about 31.6 million hectares of native forest	⁴⁵²⁵	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

BIO → WAT forest and watershed regulation
BIO → FOO pollination and soils
CLI → BIO drought and fire

Evidence to bind in 2027

official forest area and loss
wetland condition

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
46World Health Organization and UNICEF (eds.), Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene: Argentina country file. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Observation year 2024. Source that would fill the water-coverage gap; not retrieved.back
15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data.back
31Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.639, Régimen de presupuestos mínimos para la preservación de los glaciares y del ambiente periglacial. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2010. Observation year 2010. Amendment status not verified.back
8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9CAMMESA (ed.), Annual electricity demand and renewable coverage 2025 (141,249 GWh; renewables 40.21% including large hydro; 738 MW added), as reported by the generators’ chamber. CAMMESA, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Read via trade press summary.back
11International Energy Agency (ed.), Latin America Energy Outlook, Overview: Argentina. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation years 2021–2022. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1fe309e7-95f1-48a8-b32f-4bea94de4fbe/Argentinaenergyprofile_EN.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
47Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Balance energético nacional and gas production series. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the gas-output and trade-flow gaps; not retrieved at evidence close.back
12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
13Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Wheat estimate for 2025/26 (25.5 Mt), as reported by the press, 28 November 2025. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Estimate, not a final figure.back
2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back
21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary.back
34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
22Wildlife Conservation Society Argentina (ed.), Protected-area coverage and strict protection (about 2.2% of land and 5.8% of sea). WCS Argentina, Buenos Aires, June 2025. Observation year 2025.back
23Greenpeace Argentina (ed.), Informe anual de deforestación en el norte de Argentina 2025 (94,204 hectares of native forest cleared; 116,498 hectares burned). Greenpeace Argentina, Buenos Aires, February 2026. Observation year 2025. NGO survey, not an official series.back
45Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Argentina country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the forest-area gap; not reached at evidence close.back
25Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria and Ministerio de Ambiente (eds.), Segundo Inventario Nacional de Bosques Nativos (Parque Chaqueño about 31.6 million hectares of native forest), as summarised by CGIAR. Buenos Aires, 2020s. Observation year to be confirmed. Used as context only.back

Argentina 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

9 min read0 figures12 tables6 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Gap between 2022 inventory total and net on NDC basis	400.9 − 377.8	≈ 23.1 MtCO₂e
(2)	Net 2022 against 2030 and 2035 ceiling	377.8 − 375	≈ 2.8 MtCO₂e
(3)	Poverty change, H2 2025 to H1 2026	32.3 − 28.2	4.1 points
(4)	Ageing index change, 2010 to 2022	53 − 40	13 per 100

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID: MDL-ARG-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent Argentina as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: national scale; not for province or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-ARG-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 47 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-ARG-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
Element	Baseline 2026	Q1 2027
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	qualified source bindings with versions
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	National Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to the cut
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Population	2022	Nov 2023	decennial	next census
Poverty	H1 2026	Sep 2026	half-yearly	Mar 2027
GHG inventory (reviewed)	2022	Jan 2026	biennial	next transparency report
Climate contribution	2025	Nov 2025	periodic	next update
Electricity mix	2025	Dec 2025	annual	annual
Crude oil output	Jul 2026	Aug 2026	monthly	monthly
Wheat estimate	2025–26	Nov 2025	weekly	season close
Dengue season	2025–26	Sep 2026	weekly	season close
Protected areas	2025	2025	irregular	not scheduled

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Climate forcing	GOOD	regional rainfall extremes
Food	GOOD	export routes and fertiliser
Energy	PARTIAL	dry-year balance and storage
Water	PARTIAL	basin storage and sanitation
Health	PARTIAL	heat deaths
Biodiversity	PARTIAL	official forest loss
Finance	PARTIAL	insurance cover
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the UNFCCC secretariat review team on 22 January 2026. Reviews the 2022 inventory and the NDC tracking tables. Role: binds CLI-001 and the 2022 totals.

EVD-ARG-001

Technical review of the first biennial transparency report⁴

Issued by INDEC on 24 September 2026. Half-yearly, 31 urban agglomerations, projected nationally. Role: binds FIN-010. Primary release retrieved only through press summaries at evidence close.

EVD-ARG-002

Poverty and indigence release, first half 2026³

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-ARG-001	EVD-ARG-002
Completeness	all sectors and gases reported	urban agglomerations only, projected
Timeliness	about 3 years after the inventory year	about 3 months after the period
Revision	inventory back-revised each cycle	half-yearly series
Method transparency	review text public	method public; not read in full
External validation	expert review team	national statistics authority

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

FAO Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025⁴⁵, forest area and loss
WHO and UNICEF JMP⁴⁶, water and sanitation coverage
Secretaría de Energía balance⁴⁷, gas production and energy balance
Ministerio de Salud heat-health records²⁰, counting rules

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
BCBA	Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (Buenos Aires Grain Exchange)
BUR4	Fourth Biennial Update Report
CAMMESA	Compañía Administradora del Mercado Mayorista Eléctrico
INA	Instituto Nacional del Agua
INDEC	Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (National Institute of Statistics and Censuses)
INTA	Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria
NDC	nationally determined contribution
SMN	Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (National Weather Service)
SNMF	Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego (National Fire Management Service)
UNFCCC	United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the baseline indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-ARG-DRT-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	Q1 2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	Q2 2027
A.7	Provincial notes	atlas cards for every province	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, net greenhouse-gas emissions on the NDC basis

Construct: annual emissions minus removals, on the basis used to track the climate contribution
Unit: MtCO₂e
Scope: calendar year, national
Source: UNFCCC technical review⁴
Revision: back-revised at each transparency report
Known limits: differs from the inventory total including land use by about 23 MtCO₂e in 2022

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
45Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Argentina country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the forest-area gap; not reached at evidence close.back
46World Health Organization and UNICEF (eds.), Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene: Argentina country file. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Observation year 2024. Source that would fill the water-coverage gap; not retrieved.back
47Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Balance energético nacional and gas production series. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the gas-output and trade-flow gaps; not retrieved at evidence close.back
20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back

Argentina 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

9 min read0 figures7 tables22 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Population	46.2	million	2022	Reported	¹
Ageing index (65+ per 100 aged 0–14)	53	per 100	2022	Reported	²
Poverty, share of people	32.3	%	H1 2026	Reported	³
Indigence, share of people	7.5	%	H1 2026	Reported	³
Inventory total incl. land use	400.9	MtCO₂e	2022	Reported	⁴
Net emissions, NDC basis	377.8	MtCO₂e	2022	Reported	⁴
Net ceiling for 2030 and 2035	375	MtCO₂e	2025 NDC	Reported	⁶
Low-carbon share of electricity	42	%	2025	Reported	⁸
Renewables incl. large hydro, share of demand	40.2	%	2025	Reported	⁹
Crude oil output	916,200	barrels a day	Jul 2026	Reported	¹⁰
Wheat harvest, 2022–23	12.4	million tonnes	2023	Reported	¹²
Rain at Bahía Blanca in about 12 hours	290	mm	2025	Reported	¹⁴
Burned area nationally	723,765	hectares	2022	Reported	¹⁶
Dengue confirmed, season 2025–26	≈70	cases	2026	Reported	²⁰
Protected land	10.41	%	2025	Reported	²¹
Protected sea	8.49	%	2025	Reported	²¹
Heat-related deaths, national	Not bound	deaths	n/a	NOT BOUND	²⁰
Forest area, official	Not bound	million ha	n/a	NOT BOUND	⁴⁵

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3National source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
Census 2022¹²	national statistics	national	2022	decennial	profile
Poverty release³	national statistics	national	H1 2026	half-yearly	FIN
Inventory review⁴⁵	UNFCCC · ministry	national	2018–2022	biennial	CLI
Climate contribution⁶⁷	government · tracker	national	2025–2026	periodic	CLI
Electricity data⁸⁹	tracker · system operator	national	2025	annual	ENE
Oil output¹⁰	ministry as reported	national	2026	monthly	ENE
Harvest estimates¹²¹³	trade body as reported	national	2023–2025	weekly	FOO
Storm record¹⁴¹⁵	weather service as reported	local	2025	per event	CLI
Fire records¹⁶¹⁷	fire service · research institute	national	2022	seasonal	CLI
Epidemiological bulletin²⁰	ministry	national	2025–2026	weekly	HLT
Protected areas²¹²²	research · NGO	national	2025	irregular	BIO

B.3Regional reading, Argentina by region

Map plates for every province follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Table B.4Regional reading, Argentina by region
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
Pampas	drought, flash flood, storms	food, urban lifelines	Bahía Blanca 2025¹⁴; drought 2022–23¹²
Litoral and Paraná delta	low river flows, fire	water, logistics, biodiversity	Paraná 2019–22¹⁸; delta fires 2022¹⁶
North-east	fire, heat, vector-borne disease	biodiversity, health	Corrientes 2022¹⁷
North-west	vector-borne disease, heat	health	chikungunya season 2025–26²⁰
Cuyo and Andes	glacier and snow water, drought	water	glacier law in force³¹; storage not bound
Patagonia	oil and gas basins, fire	energy	Neuquén oil output¹⁰; fire not bound

B.4Atlas card, Bahía Blanca (Buenos Aires province)

city
port
flash flood
record rain

Systems in view: water, roads, power, health and port logistics
Defining event: storm of 7 March 2025, about 290 mm in twelve hours¹⁴
Couplings: CLI → WAT → INF; WAT → HLT
Capability evidence: restoration records not bound
Gaps: drainage capacity; recovery time; insured share
Agenda items: A-05

About 290 mm fell in twelve hours, against a previous record of 167.6 mm in 1933.

RAIN

A record in hours

Press agencies reported sixteen deaths and more than a thousand people evacuated.

PEOPLE

Sixteen deaths reported

No official loss total was retrieved. A loss figure of US$400 million quoted by the mayor in the press is not used here.

LOSSES

Not bound

B.5Argentina system card

The card through which Argentina appears in the South America regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Table B.5Argentina system card
System	Baseline state	Coupling to watch	Coverage
Water	record low flows; flash floods	drought into harvest	PARTIAL
Energy	low-carbon 42%; oil record	dry-year power balance	PARTIAL
Food	harvest swings with rain	drought into revenue	GOOD
Health	ageing; vector-borne disease	heat and disease load	PARTIAL
Biodiversity	protected 10.4% of land	fire and forest loss	PARTIAL

Context

Archetype: federal G20 economy, major grain exporter and growing oil and gas producer
Population: 46.2 million (2022)¹
Trade: grain and energy exports tie accounts to weather¹²¹⁰
Hazard: record rain 290 mm in 12 hours, Bahía Blanca¹⁴

Argentina’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.

SOUTH AMERICA REGIONAL EDITION

One regional system

Argentine evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.

GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES

Same findings, same IDs

In the global edition Argentina is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

GLOBAL FLAGSHIP

Peers, not ranks

B.6Licences

Table B.6Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.7This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	18 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: NQ-ARG-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC) (ed.), Censo Nacional de Población, Hogares y Viviendas 2022: resultados definitivos (46,234,830 inhabitants; reference date 1 July 2022). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022. Read via press reports of the release, 2026-11-03.back
2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report.back
3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03.back
4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Announcement of Argentina’s nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 3 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/484146, accessed 2026-11-03.back
8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
9CAMMESA (ed.), Annual electricity demand and renewable coverage 2025 (141,249 GWh; renewables 40.21% including large hydro; 738 MW added), as reported by the generators’ chamber. CAMMESA, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Read via trade press summary.back
10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023.back
14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025.back
16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022.back
20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71).back
21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary.back
45Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Argentina country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the forest-area gap; not reached at evidence close.back
5Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible (ed.), Cuarto Informe Bienal de Actualización de la República Argentina a la CMNUCC (BUR4). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2021. Observation year 2018. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/4to%20Informe%20Bienal%20de%20la%20Rep%C3%BAblica%20Argentina.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Argentina: targets. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, data as of June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/argentina/targets/, accessed 2026-11-03.back
13Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Wheat estimate for 2025/26 (25.5 Mt), as reported by the press, 28 November 2025. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Estimate, not a final figure.back
15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data.back
17Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (ed.), Satellite monitoring of fires in Corrientes, 2022 (1,042,514 hectares), as reported by the press. INTA, Buenos Aires, 2022. Observation year 2022.back
22Wildlife Conservation Society Argentina (ed.), Protected-area coverage and strict protection (about 2.2% of land and 5.8% of sea). WCS Argentina, Buenos Aires, June 2025. Observation year 2025.back
18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page.back
31Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.639, Régimen de presupuestos mínimos para la preservación de los glaciares y del ambiente periglacial. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2010. Observation year 2010. Amendment status not verified.back

Argentina 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

13 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE

C.147 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Censos (INDEC) (ed.), Censo Nacional de Población, Hogares y Viviendas 2022: resultados definitivos (46,234,830 inhabitants; reference date 1 July 2022). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022. Read via press reports of the release, 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6
2INDEC (ed.), Censo 2022: Indicadores demográficos por sexo y edad (ageing index 53 per 100, against 40 in 2010). INDEC, Buenos Aires, November 2023. Observation year 2022. Figure read via press summary of the report. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, primer semestre de 2026 (EPH). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 24 September 2026. Observation year 2026. Figures read via press summaries of the release, 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7
4UNFCCC (ed.), Report on the technical expert review of the first biennial transparency report of Argentina, Addendum, FCCC/ETF/TERR.1/2024/ARG/Add.1. UNFCCC, Bonn, 22 January 2026. Observation years 2021–2022. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/terr1_2024_ARGa01.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
5Ministerio de Ambiente y Desarrollo Sostenible (ed.), Cuarto Informe Bienal de Actualización de la República Argentina a la CMNUCC (BUR4). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2021. Observation year 2018. https://unfccc.int/sites/default/files/resource/4to%20Informe%20Bienal%20de%20la%20Rep%C3%BAblica%20Argentina.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
6Presidencia de la Nación (ed.), Announcement of Argentina’s nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 375 MtCO₂e for 2030 and 2035). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 3 November 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/484146, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6
7Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Argentina: targets. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, data as of June 2026. Observation year 2026. https://climateactiontracker.org/countries/argentina/targets/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
8Ember (ed.), Argentina electricity profile (low-carbon share of generation 42% in 2025). Ember, London, December 2025. Observation year 2025. https://ember-energy.org/es/paises-y-regiones/argentina/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
9CAMMESA (ed.), Annual electricity demand and renewable coverage 2025 (141,249 GWh; renewables 40.21% including large hydro; 738 MW added), as reported by the generators’ chamber. CAMMESA, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Read via trade press summary. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
10Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Crude oil production, July 2026 (916,200 barrels a day; +17.2% year on year to June), as reported by Infobae, 9 August 2026. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.infobae.com/economia/2026/08/09/los-records-de-vaca-muerta-acercan-a-la-argentina-al-1-de-la-produccion-petrolera-mundial/, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 7, chapter 8
11International Energy Agency (ed.), Latin America Energy Outlook, Overview: Argentina. IEA, Paris, 2023. Observation years 2021–2022. https://iea.blob.core.windows.net/assets/1fe309e7-95f1-48a8-b32f-4bea94de4fbe/Argentinaenergyprofile_EN.pdf, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
12Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Estimates for the 2022/23 harvest under drought (wheat 12.4 Mt, down 44%; soybeans 25 Mt; maize 36 Mt; farm-sector losses about US$33 billion), as reported by the press. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
13Bolsa de Cereales de Buenos Aires (ed.), Wheat estimate for 2025/26 (25.5 Mt), as reported by the press, 28 November 2025. BCBA, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Estimate, not a final figure. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
14Servicio Meteorológico Nacional (ed.), Report on the storm of 7 March 2025 at Bahía Blanca (about 290 mm in twelve hours; previous record 167.6 mm in 1933), as cited by BAE Negocios, 14 March 2025. SMN, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 7, chapter 8
15Municipalidad de Bahía Blanca (ed.), Casualty count for the March 2025 floods (sixteen deaths), as reported by Argentine and international press, March and October 2025. Observation year 2025. Press-reported official data. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
16Servicio Nacional de Manejo del Fuego, Ministerio de Ambiente (ed.), Fire reports 2022 (723,765 hectares affected nationally), as analysed by Chequeado, “En 2022 se duplicó la superficie de hectáreas incendiadas”. Buenos Aires, 2023. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
17Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria (ed.), Satellite monitoring of fires in Corrientes, 2022 (1,042,514 hectares), as reported by the press. INTA, Buenos Aires, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3
18Flow analysis of the Paraná River and contextualisation of low flows in 2019/20, 2020/21 and 2021/22 hydrological years. Peer-reviewed journal article, Argentina. Observation years 2019–2022. Record read at https://bdu.siu.edu.ar/bdu/Record/I15-R229-article-224/Description, accessed 2026-11-03. Authors and journal to be confirmed from the article page. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
19World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2025. WMO, Geneva, 18 May 2026. Observation year 2025. https://wmo.int/node/38574, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6
20Ministerio de Salud (ed.), Boletín Epidemiológico Nacional: dengue and chikungunya, season 2025/26 (about 70 confirmed dengue cases; 27,178 suspected; 3,730 chikungunya cases confirmed or probable). Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2026. https://www.argentina.gob.ar/node/504298, accessed 2026-11-03. Counts differ between press reports of the bulletin (69 and 71). Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
21Ecología Austral (ed.), Updated protected-area database for Argentina (land 10.41%, sea 8.49%). Asociación Ecología Austral, Buenos Aires, 2025. Observation year 2025. Read via search summary. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
22Wildlife Conservation Society Argentina (ed.), Protected-area coverage and strict protection (about 2.2% of land and 5.8% of sea). WCS Argentina, Buenos Aires, June 2025. Observation year 2025. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
23Greenpeace Argentina (ed.), Informe anual de deforestación en el norte de Argentina 2025 (94,204 hectares of native forest cleared; 116,498 hectares burned). Greenpeace Argentina, Buenos Aires, February 2026. Observation year 2025. NGO survey, not an official series. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
24N. Jorge (ed.), Argentina report on deforestation 2000–2024. International Food Policy Research Institute, Washington, DC, 5 September 2025. Observation years 2000–2024. Listed via the FAO AGRIS record; not read in full. Cited in chapter 6
25Instituto Nacional de Tecnología Agropecuaria and Ministerio de Ambiente (eds.), Segundo Inventario Nacional de Bosques Nativos (Parque Chaqueño about 31.6 million hectares of native forest), as summarised by CGIAR. Buenos Aires, 2020s. Observation year to be confirmed. Used as context only. Cited in chapter 8
26International Monetary Fund (ed.), Press Release No. 25/095: IMF reaches staff-level agreement with Argentina on a 48-month Extended Fund Facility (US$20 billion). IMF, Washington, DC, 8 April 2025. Observation year 2025. https://www.imf.org/en/News/Articles/2025/04/08/pr25095-argentina-imf-reaches-staff-level-agreement-with-argentina-on-a-48-month-eff, accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
27Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.520, Presupuestos mínimos de adaptación y mitigación al cambio climático global. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2019. Observation year 2019. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
28Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.331, Presupuestos mínimos de protección ambiental de los bosques nativos. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2007. Observation year 2007. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
29Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.191, Régimen de fomento nacional para el uso de fuentes renovables de energía destinada a la producción de energía eléctrica. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
30Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 27.287, Sistema Nacional para la Gestión Integral del Riesgo y la Protección Civil. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2016. Observation year 2016. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
31Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 26.639, Régimen de presupuestos mínimos para la preservación de los glaciares y del ambiente periglacial. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2010. Observation year 2010. Amendment status not verified. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
32H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Cited in chapter 6
33UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
34Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
35UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year 2015. Cited in chapter 6
36P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054. Observation year 2024. doi:10.5281/zenodo.13850054 Cited in chapter 6
37J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited in chapter 6
38World Health Organization (ed.), World Health Statistics 2025. WHO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year 2025. Context only. Cited in chapter 6
39S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
40S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Cited in chapter 6
41Government of Argentina (ed.), Ley 25.675, Ley General del Ambiente. Boletín Oficial, Buenos Aires, 2002. Observation year 2002. Cited in chapter 6
42Government of Argentina (ed.), Argentina’s updated nationally determined contribution (net ceiling of 349 MtCO₂e in 2030), submitted to the UNFCCC 2 November 2021, as recorded by Climate Action Tracker. Buenos Aires, 2021. Observation year 2021. Cited in chapter 1
43INDEC (ed.), Incidencia de la pobreza y la indigencia en 31 aglomerados urbanos, segundo semestre de 2025 (poverty 28.2% of people). INDEC, Buenos Aires, 2026. Observation year 2025. Figure read via press summaries. Cited in chapter 2
44International Monetary Fund (ed.), Argentina: second review under the Extended Fund Facility, staff-level agreement, as reported by MercoPress, 15 April 2026. IMF, Washington, DC, 2026. Observation year 2026. Context only. Cited in chapter 6
45Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025: Argentina country report. FAO, Rome, 2025. Observation year 2025. Source that would fill the forest-area gap; not reached at evidence close. Cited in chapter 8
46World Health Organization and UNICEF (eds.), Joint Monitoring Programme for Water Supply, Sanitation and Hygiene: Argentina country file. WHO and UNICEF, Geneva and New York, 2025. Observation year 2024. Source that would fill the water-coverage gap; not retrieved. Cited in chapter 8
47Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Balance energético nacional and gas production series. Government of Argentina, Buenos Aires. Observation year to be confirmed. Source that would fill the gas-output and trade-flow gaps; not retrieved at evidence close. Cited in chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Argentina Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline	Q1 2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
ARG	NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-ARG-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-NAT-ARG-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Argentina; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
ARG edition Reports Argentina 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; ARG is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

1.4Reinforcing loops

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Climate forcing

2.3Energy

2.4Water

2.5Food

2.6Health

2.7Finance

2.8Biodiversity

2.9Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

Hydrological years with the largest negative Paraná flow anomalies in 118 years of record

Low-carbon share of electricity generation

Change in the wheat harvest in the 2022–23 drought

Heat-related deaths, national season total

Land in protected areas

Rain in about twelve hours at Bahía Blanca, 7 March 2025

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Multi-year drought and low river flows

Flash flood and storm in a port or river city

Large fire in wetlands, savanna or forest

Heat and vector-borne disease load on health services

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

6.2Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled

Notes