GCRI · Disaster Resilience and Recovery
Dependencies and consequences
Disasters are rarely confined to the area a hazard strikes. They travel through infrastructure, supply chains, public budgets, health systems and social networks, and they interact with other hazards and crises. This page sets out the main pathways by which disaster impacts cascade, and how weak preparedness and recovery in one system raise risk in others. It describes connections; it is not a forecast.
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How disaster impacts cascade.
Infrastructure chains
Power, water, transport, fuel and communications depend on each other. Loss of one can halt the others, and restoring them in the wrong order delays recovery.
Supply chains and budgets
Disrupted suppliers stop production elsewhere. Emergency and reconstruction costs strain public budgets and can crowd out development spending.
Households and services
Displacement, lost income and interrupted schooling and healthcare can persist long after physical repair, and fall hardest on those with fewest reserves.
Hazards now in the Philippines.
Flood water, active fires, population density and true-colour imagery over the Philippines, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 4
Hazards now, for this page
Keyboard, with the map focused
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Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
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Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Hazards now, framed on the Philippines.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA HLS S30Sources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (20 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
- Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
When crises overlap.
Compound and cascading events are increasingly central to the field. A heatwave during a power outage, an earthquake that triggers landslides and dam failures, a cyclone during an epidemic or a flood in a place already affected by conflict each create demands that single-hazard plans do not anticipate. Response capacity used for one event is unavailable for the next, and recovery from one shock can be interrupted by another.
Weak recovery is itself a pathway. When reconstruction rebuilds exposure, when livelihoods are not restored, or when debts taken on after one disaster limit the response to the next, risk accumulates over time. Tracking these slow pathways requires following places and households for years, not weeks.
Field overview.
The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Where the connected systems are studied, governed and financed.
- Climate and HazardsInstitutionGCRILink to disaster resilienceThe physical hazards and their changing frequency and intensity.
- Critical InfrastructureInstitutionGCRILink to disaster resilienceInterdependent infrastructure and service continuity.
- Cities and Built EnvironmentInstitutionGCRILink to disaster resilienceBuilding and urban vulnerability, and safer reconstruction.
- Disaster and Crisis Governance at GRFInstitutionGRFLink to disaster resilienceGovernance of disaster and crisis arrangements.
- Disaster Risk Finance at GRAInstitutionGRALink to disaster resilienceFinancial arrangements before and after disasters.
- Public Finance and Sovereign Debt at GRAInstitutionGRALink to disaster resilienceFiscal consequences of disasters for governments.
How dependencies are analysed.
Cascade analysis uses decision analysis under uncertainty, operations research and geospatial analysis, with evidence from past events and exercises. Every map states its assumptions and uncertainty; see methods and uncertainty.
A dependency map describes how stress could travel. It does not predict a specific event and does not assess any individual organisation.
Questions and answers.
Is a cascade map a forecast?
Why include public finance?
Where do exercises fit?
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