Skip to content

GCRI · Disaster Resilience and Recovery

Dependencies and consequences

Disasters are rarely confined to the area a hazard strikes. They travel through infrastructure, supply chains, public budgets, health systems and social networks, and they interact with other hazards and crises. This page sets out the main pathways by which disaster impacts cascade, and how weak preparedness and recovery in one system raise risk in others. It describes connections; it is not a forecast.

STEM methods
8
Canonical methods this field applies
Topics
8
Subject pages in the field
Counterparts
10
Platforms in shared fields across the network
Report series
2
Reports series it contributes to
01Pathways

How disaster impacts cascade.

Physical

Infrastructure chains

Power, water, transport, fuel and communications depend on each other. Loss of one can halt the others, and restoring them in the wrong order delays recovery.

Economic

Supply chains and budgets

Disrupted suppliers stop production elsewhere. Emergency and reconstruction costs strain public budgets and can crowd out development spending.

Social

Households and services

Displacement, lost income and interrupted schooling and healthcare can persist long after physical repair, and fall hardest on those with fewest reserves.

02Geography

Hazards now in the Philippines.

Flood water, active fires, population density and true-colour imagery over the Philippines, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.

The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.

Layers 4

Hazards now, for this page

Latest available

NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth

Loading the latest NASA imagery.

Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.

Hazards now, framed on the Philippines.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.

Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · U.S. Geological Survey · NASA HLS S30Sources and licences

  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • NASA Fire Information for Resource Management System (FIRMS), VIIRS 375 m active fire product, NASA LANCE; vector tiles via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
  • GPM IMERG precipitation, NASA Precipitation Processing System; distributed by the NASA Goddard Earth Sciences Data and Information Services Center (GES DISC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
  • Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
  • © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
  • Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
  • Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
  • Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
  • Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Live: U.S. Geological Survey Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
  • Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
  • River discharge forecast, 30 days with range (GloFAS via Open-Meteo): Contains modified Copernicus Emergency Management Service information 2026; not a flood warning.
  • Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
  • Optional layers (20 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.

Layers and dates

  • Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
  • Active fires and thermal anomalies: VIIRS NOAA-20 375 m (FIRMS), NASA LANCE FIRMS · 13 Oct 2026
  • Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
  • Precipitation rate, daily mean: GPM IMERG, NASA GES DISC · 12 Oct 2026
  • True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
  • Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024

03Compounding

When crises overlap.

Compound and cascading events are increasingly central to the field. A heatwave during a power outage, an earthquake that triggers landslides and dam failures, a cyclone during an epidemic or a flood in a place already affected by conflict each create demands that single-hazard plans do not anticipate. Response capacity used for one event is unavailable for the next, and recovery from one shock can be interrupted by another.

Weak recovery is itself a pathway. When reconstruction rebuilds exposure, when livelihoods are not restored, or when debts taken on after one disaster limit the response to the next, risk accumulates over time. Tracking these slow pathways requires following places and households for years, not weeks.

04Monitor

Field overview.

The screen a team would use to follow this subject: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.

Field overview: the screen's structure, terms and states for Disaster resilience.Example names and illustrative values; a design, not a record or a live system.
06Method

How dependencies are analysed.

Cascade analysis uses decision analysis under uncertainty, operations research and geospatial analysis, with evidence from past events and exercises. Every map states its assumptions and uncertainty; see methods and uncertainty.

A dependency map describes how stress could travel. It does not predict a specific event and does not assess any individual organisation.

07Questions

Questions and answers.

Is a cascade map a forecast?
No. It describes connections and possible pathways. Scenarios used in exercises are labelled as such and carry their assumptions.
Why include public finance?
Because how a government pays for response and recovery shapes how fast and how well recovery happens. The financial side is examined at Public Finance and Sovereign Debt at GRA and Disaster Risk Finance at GRA.
Where do exercises fit?
Exercises are one of the best ways to discover hidden dependencies before a real event. See Multi-hazard exercises.
ReportsContribute

Contribute evidence from this page.

Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.

GCRIDisaster Resilience and RecoveryCountry Systems Risk and ResilienceEvidence Brief
Disaster Resilience and Recovery

Bring a method, a dataset or a question.

Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.