GCRI · Disaster Resilience and Recovery
Methods and uncertainty
The methods Disaster Resilience and Recovery relies on: their equations and assumptions, the data they need, how they are validated and the limits of what they can show.
Methods and uncertainty on the record.
- 01FieldsDisaster and crisis, Climate and hazards
- 02STEM methods8 canonical methods applied
- 03Topics8 subject pages
- 04Counterparts10 platforms in shared fields
- 05PublisherThe Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
The methods in use.
- 01Decision analysis under uncertaintyCost-benefit of risk reduction · Acting on forecasts · Recovery prioritisationApplied here
- 02Social and behavioural scienceWarning response surveys · Participatory risk assessment · Social vulnerability analysisApplied here
- 03Forecasting and time-series analysisTrigger verification · Flood forecast lead time · Seasonal outlooks for drought preparednessApplied here
- 04Optimisation and operations researchPrepositioning relief supplies · Evacuation and shelter planning · Restoration sequencingApplied here
- 05Geospatial information systemsExposure mapping · Rapid damage assessment · Common operational dataApplied here
- 06Hydrology and water scienceFlood risk mapping for planning · Thresholds for anticipatory actionApplied here
- 07Earth and geophysical scienceEarthquake scenarios for exercises · Landslide hazard in recovery planningApplied here
- 08Structural and earthquake engineeringPost-disaster safety evaluation · Retrofit prioritisation · Reconstruction standardsApplied here
Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.
- Decision analysisRole hereDecision analysis under uncertainty is how this platform frames the hard choices of disaster risk management: where to invest in prevention, when to act on a forecast, and how to sequence recovery.Checks appliedSensitivity to discount rate; Distributional analysis; Assumption register
- Social scienceRole hereSocial and behavioural science explains why people and institutions prepare or do not, act on warnings or ignore them, and recover unequally.Checks appliedSampling design review; Ethics and consent; Triangulation
- ForecastingRole hereForecasting supplies the lead time that early warning and anticipatory action depend on.Checks appliedHindcast verification; Contingency table scores; Impact link check
- OptimisationRole hereOptimisation and operations research decide how to use limited resources when time and access are constrained.Checks appliedScenario robustness; Field validation; Constraint review
- GeospatialRole hereGeospatial information systems locate hazard, exposure, vulnerability and capacity on the map.Checks appliedPositional accuracy; Damage grading accuracy; Boundary and code consistency
- HydrologyRole hereHydrology connects rainfall to the floods and droughts that drive many disasters.Checks appliedModel calibration; Threshold-impact match; Local verification
- GeoscienceRole hereEarth and geophysical science supplies the evidence for disasters from earthquakes, landslides, volcanoes and tsunamis.Checks appliedScenario plausibility; Inventory completeness; Site verification
- Structural engineeringRole hereStructural and earthquake engineering decide whether buildings and infrastructure stand through hazards and whether reconstruction is safer than what it replaces.Checks appliedEvaluator calibration; Fragility function validation; Construction quality sampling
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Methods and uncertainty: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
10 steps·4 stages
Process
Methods and uncertainty: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
PRISMA 2020 is a reporting guideline for systematic reviews; the steps follow its checklist, not a mandated sequence, and no Nexus document adopts it.
01 Plan
- 01Registration and protocolRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for registration details, access to the protocol and any amendments.
- 02Eligibility criteriaRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for the inclusion and exclusion criteria and how studies were grouped.
02 Find and select
- 03Search: sources and strategiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the information sources and the full search strategies. It does not fix which sources are used.
- 04Selection of studiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how studies were judged eligible, including how many reviewers screened. It does not fix the number of reviewers.
- 05Flow diagramRecordThe flow diagram shows the number of records found, the number of studies included and the reasons for exclusion.
03 Analyse
- 06Data collectionStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how data were collected from reports and which data items were sought.
- 07Risk of biasStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods and tools used to assess risk of bias.
- 08SynthesisModel · The review teamThe guideline asks for the effect measures and the synthesis methods. It does not prescribe meta-analysis.
- 09Certainty of evidenceStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods used to assess certainty, and reports the result per outcome. It does not name a grading scale.
04 Report
- 10Review reportRecordThe guideline helps authors report why the review was done, what they did and what they found.
ReportsOutline of an externally published reporting guideline, not a Nexus process and not a record of operation. PRISMA 2020 mainly covers reviews of intervention effects. No Nexus page names it. Every programme is at service level R0.
Where uncertainty in disaster risk analysis comes from, and how it is shown.
| Source | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| Loss data | Under-reporting of small and slow-onset disasters | Database coverage stated, comparisons with caveats |
| Exposure | Population and asset data age quickly | Data date and source on each layer |
| Vulnerability | Fragility of buildings and livelihoods varies locally | Ranges and local calibration |
| Behaviour in warnings | Response to warnings is uncertain | Survey evidence and scenarios |
Loss figures are always reported with the database and its definitions; international databases and national loss accounts differ.
How uncertainty is reported.
- 01
State assumptions
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
- 02
Quantify where possible
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
- 03
Validate and compare
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
- 04
Publish limits
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
Are the methods open?
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Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
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