GCRI · Economic Development
Methods and uncertainty
The methods Economic Development relies on: their equations and assumptions, the data they need, how they are validated and the limits of what they can show.
The workspace for methods and uncertainty.
Evidence register
Economic development · Methods and uncertainty · Example interface, not a record
Indicators
unit · cadence · label
| Real GDP growth | y/y | quarterly | Published statistics | SP-5849 |
| Employment rate | of working age | quarterly | SURVEY | SP-5009 |
| Export concentration | index | annual | DERIVED | SP-6591 |
| Fiscal space | of GDP | annual | ESTIMATED | SP-7911 |
| Digital payments adoption | of adults | annual | SURVEY | SP-7312 |
Source passport
- Source
- National accounts
- Licence
- open · attribution
- Steward
- Development agency
- Coverage
- 75 pct of places
- Known limits
- sparse in uplands
Coverage by place
Economic Development · Evidence register. Evidence register: example names and illustrative values, not a record.
The methods in use.
- 01Economics and development economicsGrowth diagnostics · Structural transformation analysis · Distributional incidenceApplied here
- 02EconometricsShock transmission models · Panel analysis across countries · Nowcasting with alternative dataApplied here
- 03Causal inference and impact evaluationRandomised evaluations · Evaluating place-based policies · Regression discontinuityApplied here
- 04Network science and contagionProduct space analysis · Input-output shock propagation · Financial interconnectednessApplied here
- 05Complex systems and agent-based modellingAgent-based macroeconomic scenarios · Feedback in fiscal and financial stressApplied here
Each method, its role in this field and how it is checked.
- EconomicsRole hereEconomics and development economics is the science this platform stewards for the network.Checks appliedData revision checks; Alternative explanations; Distributional robustness
- EconometricsRole hereEconometrics estimates economic relationships from data.Checks appliedSpecification robustness; Out-of-sample evaluation; Diagnostic tests
- Causal inferenceRole hereCausal inference and impact evaluation ask whether a policy or programme changed outcomes compared with what would otherwise have happened.Checks appliedBalance and pre-trends; Pre-registration; External validity
- Network scienceRole hereNetwork science maps how economies are connected through trade, production, finance and capabilities.Checks appliedNetwork robustness; Validation against events; Data aggregation effects
- Complex systemsRole hereComplex systems and agent-based modelling represent economies as many interacting agents whose behaviour produces aggregate outcomes.Checks appliedPattern validation; Sensitivity analysis; Comparison with simpler models
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Methods and uncertainty: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
10 steps·4 stages
Process
Methods and uncertainty: PRISMA 2020 review reporting
PRISMA 2020 is a reporting guideline for systematic reviews; the steps follow its checklist, not a mandated sequence, and no Nexus document adopts it.
01 Plan
- 01Registration and protocolRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for registration details, access to the protocol and any amendments.
- 02Eligibility criteriaRecord · The review teamThe guideline asks for the inclusion and exclusion criteria and how studies were grouped.
02 Find and select
- 03Search: sources and strategiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the information sources and the full search strategies. It does not fix which sources are used.
- 04Selection of studiesStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how studies were judged eligible, including how many reviewers screened. It does not fix the number of reviewers.
- 05Flow diagramRecordThe flow diagram shows the number of records found, the number of studies included and the reasons for exclusion.
03 Analyse
- 06Data collectionStep · The review teamThe guideline asks how data were collected from reports and which data items were sought.
- 07Risk of biasStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods and tools used to assess risk of bias.
- 08SynthesisModel · The review teamThe guideline asks for the effect measures and the synthesis methods. It does not prescribe meta-analysis.
- 09Certainty of evidenceStep · The review teamThe guideline asks for the methods used to assess certainty, and reports the result per outcome. It does not name a grading scale.
04 Report
- 10Review reportRecordThe guideline helps authors report why the review was done, what they did and what they found.
ReportsOutline of an externally published reporting guideline, not a Nexus process and not a record of operation. PRISMA 2020 mainly covers reviews of intervention effects. No Nexus page names it. Every programme is at service level R0.
Where uncertainty in development analysis comes from, and how it is shown.
| Source | Why it matters here | How it is reported |
|---|---|---|
| National accounts | Revisions and informal sector estimates | Vintage and basis stated |
| Counterfactuals | Loss persistence depends on the counterfactual path | Methods compared |
| Elasticities | Context-specific | Ranges |
How uncertainty is reported.
- 01
State assumptions
Each analysis lists its assumptions and the data it depends on.
- 02
Quantify where possible
Ranges and confidence are reported alongside central estimates.
- 03
Validate and compare
Models are checked against observations and, where possible, against other models.
- 04
Publish limits
What an analysis cannot show is stated beside what it can.
Where this page's references lead.
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
Questions and answers.
Are the methods open?
Contribute evidence from this page.
Reports is the Consortium's quarterly publication. What you know about this subject can become evidence, a case or a correction in the next edition, credited to you and published under CC BY 4.0 where it is your own work.
- EmailGateway GW-GCRISend it from this pageEvidence, a correction, a case, a method, a review, a translation or profile input. It arrives tagged with this page, so the editor who owns it receives it.
- ZenodoOpen depositDeposit it and submit to the communityPublish your own record on Zenodo with your ORCID iD, then submit it to the Reports community there. Curators review it; the DOI stays yours.
- ReportsGCRISee every way to contributeThe contribution types, how each is reviewed, what credit you receive, the licence and what is never accepted.
Never send personal data, sensitive infrastructure detail or anything you have no right to share. A contribution is reviewed before use; sending it confers no authorship or editorial rights, and sponsorship never buys a finding.
Bring a method, a dataset or a question.
Information and enquiries are open today. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.
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Maps, data and figures on this site are shown for context and general information. They are not advice, forecasts or warnings; the limits of the information are set out in the Disclaimers and Data Notices.