Product space analysis
Products are linked by how often countries export them together, revealing which new products are close to existing capabilities.
GCRI · Economic Development
Network science for economies
Network science maps how economies are connected through trade, production, finance and capabilities. In this field it reveals how shocks propagate along supply chains and which products and capabilities lie close to those a country already has.
01Register
Network science for economies on the record.
Method recordSTEM method
- MethodNetwork science and contagion
- Applied inEconomic Development
- Data3 inputs
- Checks3 validation steps
- Canonical pageSTEM Commons
02Application
What network science and contagion does here.
Network science and contagion study how the structure of connections among entities shapes the spread of failures, information and disease. It provides tools to analyse interdependent infrastructure, supply chains and financial systems. In economic development and development finance, network science identifies critical nodes and pathways through which shocks propagate across sectors. It informs targeted protection and diversification to limit cascades. The canonical description is on the STEM Commons.
Input-output shock propagation
Input-output networks trace how a shock to one sector affects suppliers and customers across the economy.
Financial interconnectedness
Exposures between banks, firms and the government are mapped to see how distress could spread.
03Geography
Activity and hazards in Africa.
Night lights, population density and true-colour imagery over Africa, from NASA GIBS. Each layer carries its own date.
The interactive map needs JavaScript; the layer list and sources are below.
Layers 3
Activity and hazards, for this page
Keyboard, with the map focused
Hold Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll to zoom
Latest available
NASA GIBS / EOSDIS · ASTER GDEM (METI, NASA) · Blue Marble (NASA) · © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL) · Natural Earth
Loading the latest NASA imagery.
Drag to move. Ctrl or ⌘ and scroll, pinch or the buttons to zoom; hover for the values under the pointer; reset returns to the region.
Activity and hazards, framed on Africa.Satellite and model products as NASA publishes them, each with its own date. They are indicators, not assessments of any place.
Data: NASA GIBS · ASTER GDEM · Blue Marble · © OpenStreetMap contributors · Natural Earth · NASA EONET · NASA HLS S30Sources and licences
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS Black Marble night-time lights, NASA Goddard Space Flight Center; distributed by the NASA Level-1 and Atmosphere Archive and Distribution System (LAADS DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Center for International Earth Science Information Network (CIESIN), Columbia University. 2018. Gridded Population of the World, Version 4 (GPWv4): Population Density, Revision 11. NASA Socioeconomic Data and Applications Center (SEDAC). Licensed under CC BY 4.0. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). doi:10.7927/H49C6VHW. CC BY 4.0
- GHRSST Level 4 MUR analyses, NASA Jet Propulsion Laboratory; distributed by the NASA Physical Oceanography DAAC (PO.DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- VIIRS near-real-time products (flood, land surface temperature, snow cover, corrected reflectance), NASA LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- MODIS land products (vegetation indices, gross primary production, land cover), NASA LP DAAC and LANCE; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- ASTER GDEM is a product of METI and NASA (ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003, NASA LP DAAC); imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). Cite as: NASA/METI/AIST/Japan Spacesystems and U.S./Japan ASTER Science Team (2019). ASTER Global Digital Elevation Model V003. doi:10.5067/ASTER/ASTGTM.003. NASA open data
- Made with Natural Earth. Free vector and raster map data @ naturalearthdata.com. Public domain
- © OpenStreetMap contributors (ODbL), via NASA GIBS (coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names). Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). ODbL
- Blue Marble, NASA Earth Observatory; imagery via NASA GIBS. Colours redrawn from the published colour map; values averaged into hexagonal cells where shown (modified). NASA open data
- Context on the globe and flat map: coastlines, boundaries, roads and place names from NASA GIBS reference layers (OpenStreetMap data, ODbL, © OpenStreetMap contributors); Blue Marble imagery as an optional base; 3D terrain and the elevation read-out from the ASTER GDEM elevation colour index (5 m to 200 m classes, exaggerated for legibility). Boundaries are drawn as published and imply no position on any territory.
- Live events: NASA Earth Observatory Natural Event Tracker (EONET); events are indicative and keep their original source links.
- Live: NASA EONET Events are indicative, not authority warnings.
- Observed (EO): NASA HLS S30 (contains modified Copernicus Sentinel data 2026). We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- NASA GIBS: We acknowledge the use of imagery provided by services from NASA's Global Imagery Browse Services (GIBS), part of NASA's Earth Science Data and Information System (ESDIS).
- Weather data by Open-Meteo.com (https://open-meteo.com/), licensed under CC BY 4.0 (https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by/4.0/).
- Optional layers (7 sources in the layer list: live, forecast, observed and context) print their provider credit on the map and here when switched on; forecasts are model output and derived indices are estimates.
Layers and dates
- Night-time lights, daily: VIIRS Black Marble (VNP46A2), NASA LAADS DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- Population density, 2020: Population: CIESIN, Columbia University, Gridded Population of the World v4.11 (2018), NASA SEDAC, CC BY 4.0 · static
- Sea surface temperature anomaly: GHRSST MUR25, NASA JPL PO.DAAC · 12 Oct 2026
- True colour: VIIRS NOAA-20 corrected reflectance, NASA LANCE · 13 Oct 2026
- Land cover type (IGBP), yearly: MODIS Terra and Aqua land cover (MCD12Q1), NASA LP DAAC · 2024
- Flood water, 3-day composite: VIIRS Global Flood Product, NASA LANCE · 14 Oct 2026
04Data
What the method consumes.
Datasets and records used by network science and contagion on this platform, with the role each plays and the label its values carry. Sources are listed in the source register.
| Data | Role | Label |
|---|---|---|
| Trade data | Product space | Published statistics |
| Input-output tables | Sector links | ESTIMATED |
| Financial exposure data | Interconnections | REPORTED |
05Monitor
Network analysis.
The screen a team would use to follow this method: its measures, states and decisions. Names are examples and values are illustrative.
Network analysis
Economic development · Network science for economies · Run R-7605
Single point of failureGCRI · Economic Development
Dependency graph
nodes: assets · edges: dependencies
Most central nodes
| N3 | 0.06 | 7 | Critical |
| N4 | 0.06 | 12 | Normal |
| N5 | 0.20 | 13 | Normal |
| N6 | 0.08 | 11 | Normal |
Cascade size under removal
06Validation
How results are checked.
Models are checked by reproducing observed cascades and outbreaks. Robustness of results to missing or uncertain links is tested.
| Check | How it is done |
|---|---|
| Network robustness | Results are tested with alternative thresholds and data years |
| Validation against events | Propagation models are compared with past shocks |
| Data aggregation effects | Sensitivity to sector aggregation is examined |
Network data are often incomplete or confidential. Static network models may miss adaptive behaviour during cascades.
07Twin and cascade simulator
Model network science for economies as a system. Run the cascade.
Assembled from the Nexus Standards area profile Financial and economic risk standards: the hazards it names, the systems and sectors that carry the loss, the controls that dampen it and the data that observe it. Choose the components, pick an initiating hazard and step through the cascade. The Map view places the run on an example geography with open data. Every coupling weight is a stated assumption you can change. A teaching model, not a forecast, an assessment or a certification. To model a place of your own choosing, open the full System Builder.
Hazards
- Sea-level rise
- Dam failure
- Coastal flood (set off downstream)
- Storm surge (set off downstream)
- High-tide flooding (set off downstream)
- Coastal erosion (set off downstream)
- Saltwater intrusion (set off downstream)
- Estuary flood (set off downstream)
- River flood (set off downstream)
- Flash flood (set off downstream)
- Mass displacement (set off downstream)
- Coastal habitat squeeze (set off downstream)
- Wetland loss (set off downstream)
- Mangrove loss (set off downstream)
- Groundwater flood (set off downstream)
- Widespread power outage (set off downstream)
- Water supply shortfall (set off downstream)
- Climate-driven migration and relocation (set off downstream)
Systems and couplings
Controls
NS-0Constitution and principlesNS-3Risk record UNIs (grammar, legacy crosswalk, allocation authority)NS-9Contextual UNIs (deployments, instances, programme instances)NS-10Policies and clauses (machine-readable obligations: definition, binding, evaluation and enforcement)NS-11Verification and monitoring (evidence, attestations, zero-trust conformance observation)NS-14Conformance and crosswalk to external standardsNRS-H59Hazard family: Economic shocks and governance failure (NHS-1 soc.economic)NRS-H113Hazard family: Financial-system fragility (NHS-1 soc.financial-system)NRS-H118Hazard family: Organised crime and illicit economies (NHS-1 soc.crime)NRS-H114Hazard family: Macroeconomic and fiscal shocks (NHS-1 soc.macro-fiscal)NRS-H61Hazard family: Cascading failure (NHS-1 sys.cascade)NRS-U27Universe platform profile: Sovereign Capital Nexus
Observation
- IMF data services (WEO, IFS, FSI via SDMX) (listed for reference)
- BIS Data Portal (credit, debt service, property prices, banking statistics) (listed for reference)
- World Bank Open Data and World Development Indicators API (listed for reference)
- OECD Data Explorer (SDMX API) (listed for reference)
- Macroeconomic Dashboard
- Debt service as a proportion of exports of goods and services
- Financial Soundness Indicators
Example geography
- Western Europe: 152 hexagonal cells
- Night lights tonight, outages (VIIRS Day/Night Band), NASA GIBS
- Surface water through cloud, 30 m (OPERA DSWx-S1 radar), NASA GIBS
- Rain rate, last half hour (IMERG), NASA GIBS
- Vegetation disturbance alerts, 30 m (OPERA DIST-ALERT), NASA GIBS
08Connections
Topics that rely on this method.
09Methods and evidence
How network science for economies is modelled, measured and tested.
The model, its assumptions, its data and its uncertainty, in the form a scientist or engineer would check. Structures follow published methods. The values drawn are illustrative, not findings.
Model, equations and assumptions
The model structure used for network science for economies, the assumptions it makes and how each is tested.
Risk of element i
Ri = f(Hi, Ei, Vi, Ci)hazard, exposure, vulnerability and coping capacityExpected annual loss
EAL = ∑k pk · Lkover events k with annual probability pkCoupled systems
xt+1 = A xt + B ut + εtA carries the couplings, u the shock, ε the error| Assumption | Why it is made | How it is tested |
|---|---|---|
| Hazard and exposure are independent within an event | Keeps the loss integral tractable | Compare with a copula fit on joint records |
| Couplings are linear near the operating point | Lets shocks propagate through A | Perturb beyond the linear range and compare |
| Vulnerability curves transfer between places | Local curves are rarely available | Validate against observed losses where they exist |
- Inputs
- versioned datasets with provenance
- Outputs
- distributions, never single numbers
- Code
- released with the model card and tests
- Reproduction
- same data, code, environment and seed
FAIR guiding principles · GO FAIR and FORCE11W3C PROV · World Wide Web ConsortiumGuidance on consistent treatment of uncertainties · IPCCCEOS Analysis Ready Data · Committee on Earth Observation Satellites
10Stewardship
Who maintains the method.
Systems Science and Modelling stewards network science and contagion for the Consortium and reviews how it is applied across platforms.
11Process
How the process runs.
Process explorer · Process
Network science for economies: Cascade across systems
8 steps·4 stages
Process
Network science for economies: Cascade across systems
An initial hazard can trigger later risks and events; this illustration draws one cascade across systems such as energy, water, ICT, health and transport.
01 Hazard
- 01Initiating hazardDataset · Ministry of financeCascading risk is the risk that hazard events trigger later risks and events, through chains of interrelated hazards or impacts.
02 First-order systems
- 02Example system: energyModel · System operatorAn example of a system a hazard can hit first. What depends on it is set by a dependency survey.
- 03Example system: waterModel · System operatorA second example of a system a hazard can hit first. Its links to other systems are shown as examples only.
03 Second-order systems
- 04Example system: ICTModel · System operatorAn example of a system that may depend on others, for example on backup power. Survey data set the real dependencies.
- 05Example system: health servicesModel · System operatorAn example of a system that may depend on water, power and data. Survey data set the real dependencies.
- 06Example system: transportModel · System operatorAn example of a system that may depend on ICT, fuel and logistics. Survey data set the real dependencies.
04 Limiting the cascade
- 07Buffers and redundancyStep · Ministry of financeBuffers, redundancy and restoration can limit how far an impact spreads. The OECD report moves from single assets to system resilience.
- 08Restoration prioritiesDecision · Ministry of financeThe responsible party sets which services are restored first, under its own rules.
Outline of an external standard or method, from its public sources. It describes what the framework says, not a record of any run. It does not show that Nexus or any partner performs, certifies or approves a step. A gate is a step of the method, never a Nexus approval. The dependencies are examples. A dependency survey for the place sets them.
12Connected
Where this page leads across the Consortium.
13Questions
Questions and answers.
What are the limits of network science and contagion in this field?
Network data are often incomplete or confidential. Static network models may miss adaptive behaviour during cascades.
How are results checked?
Models are checked by reproducing observed cascades and outbreaks. Robustness of results to missing or uncertain links is tested.
Are the values on this page real?
The data names, roles and checks are real descriptions of practice. The canvas shows a design of the method's use, not a run; no result is reported here.
Where else is this method applied?
The canonical method page lists every platform that applies it.
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