The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Model descriptions are published here once reviewed, with their assumptions, evidence and validation. They describe models; they are not live simulations.
Fig.A programme from scoping to the owner's decision. Design, not a record.
Health Nexus reviewed models are published descriptions of the models used in the health and biosecurity field, with their assumptions, data, validation and limits, built on methods such as epidemiology and public health science as well as molecular and life sciences. They describe models; they are not live simulations, and no output on them is a finding.
How far each division sits from a large city, with the roads and airports that carry patients and supplies, shown for the Sahel as an example geography for this subject.
| Model class | Open examples | Question it answers | Validation |
|---|---|---|---|
| Compartmental transmission models | SEIR-type models, open epidemic modelling packages | Course of an outbreak under interventions | Fit to reported data; comparison of ensembles |
| Agent-based epidemic models | Open agent-based platforms | Effects of contact structure and targeted measures | Pattern validation against observed outbreaks |
| Health-system capacity models | Bed and staff demand models | When and where capacity is exceeded | Back-testing against past surges |
| Supply-chain models | Network models of medical supply | Concentration and substitution | Reconstruction of past shortages |
Model outputs for a live event are scenarios with stated assumptions; they are not public health advice.
Analysis runs in Nexus Foundry; reviewed releases are listed here.
Each term as this page uses it. Where a standard-setting body defines the term, the wording follows that body.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| Model validation | Comparing model predictions with independent observations to judge fitness for a stated use. |
| Model card | A short document describing a model's intended use, training data, performance and limits. |
| Uncertainty quantification | Characterising and propagating the uncertainties in a model to state confidence in its outputs. |
| Surrogate model | A fast statistical model trained to approximate a slow simulation or experiment. |
The bodies and documents this page is read against. Status and editions change; each link goes to the issuing body.
The current service level is R0: information and enquiries. An enquiry receives a reference and names the next step; applications, payments, compute allocations and registrations open only when their team, terms and review capacity exist.