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The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation
Research, technology and policy for connected risk

Evidence and capability for systemic risk.

GCRI helps countries and institutions understand systemic risk, govern frontier technology and build the capability to act on what they learn. It is the research, development and policy institution of Nexus Consortiums, working across Canada and the United States.

Find your route in What GCRI offers
World map The world's land and country boundaries, for context.
design stress levelWatchElevatedHighSevere

GCRI · institution · fieldDESIGN FIGURE

Risk fieldWhere systemic stress concentrates across the areas GCRI works in. Illustrative levels, not findings.

01In brief

The short answer.

The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) is a research, development and policy institution that helps countries understand systemic risk and build the evidence and capability to become more resilient. It works through GCRI Canada and GCRI US, serves Nexus Consortiums as Consortium Secretariat, and stewards the STEM Commons, Nexus Foundry and Nexus Reports. It is not a regulator.

Regions
6
In the consortium geography
Planned hubs
15
Coordination roles, not offices
Foundry systems
20
One shared operating environment
Platforms
30
11 established, 19 in development
02Explorer

A country's systems, before and after a shock.

How stress builds inland and travels through a country's systems after a shock. Real geography, placeholder levels.

Basin stress field · select a scenarioReal geography · placeholder values
Basin stress field, illustrative values on real geography The Lower Mekong region and how stress could build across it under three scenarios: baseline, drought and heat, or flood after drought. Real geography; illustrative levels, not results.
No signalLowElevatedHighSevere
Sea floorDelta, 0 to 10 mPlain, 50 to 150 mUpland, 400 to 800 mHighland, 1,500 to 2,500 mRivers

Fig. 01The Lower Mekong under a drought, heat or flood scenario. Real geography; illustrative levels, not results.

Baseline

What a country's systems look like before a shock.

The National Model holds water, energy, food, health, biodiversity and critical infrastructure as one coupled system, cell by cell, with every value carrying its evidence label.

Systems
6
Coupled in every model
Channels
30
Transmission channels examined
Drought and heat

Stress builds inland, then travels through the grid.

A rainfall deficit lowers reservoirs, cuts hydropower, strains the grid at evening peak and reaches water treatment and hospitals weeks later. Each step keeps its own label and its own confidence.

Cascade
6
Steps from deficit to hospitals, traced below
Labels
9
Evidence labels, one per finding
Flood after drought

The coast and the lake plain take the second shock.

Intense rain on dry ground overwhelms drainage, inundates treatment works and pumping stations, and interrupts electricity. The same model shows where the two shocks compound.

Methods
54
In the STEM Commons, each with a canonical page
Systems
20
Nexus Foundry systems the model runs in

A research profile of a country is not a constituted national programme. The model is operated under the authority of the programme that owns the question and its data.

03The problem

One shock becomes several, and the evidence arrives late.

The systems that keep societies running depend on one another. A drought becomes a power shortage, a food price spike and a strain on hospitals. New technologies change both what can go wrong and what institutions can do about it. Most mandates, budgets and data are still organized one sector and one border at a time.

Cascade trace · compound drought and heatIllustrative
Cascade trace, illustrative interface An illustrative trace of a compound drought and heat cascade in six steps from a rainfall deficit to hospital continuity at risk, each with its time offset, an evidence label and a falling confidence meter. Names and values are placeholders.

Fig. 02Six steps from a rainfall deficit to hospital continuity at risk, each with its own evidence label. Illustrative chain, not a forecast.

Failures cascade

Water, energy, food, health, ecosystems and infrastructure share dependencies. Assessing them separately misses the compound events that cause the greatest harm.

Technology outpaces governance

Artificial intelligence, biotechnology, quantum and autonomous systems create capability and exposure faster than institutions can evaluate or absorb them.

Evidence arrives late

Ministries, operators and financial institutions often decide without shared evidence, tested options or a clear statement of uncertainty.

04What GCRI does

Research, technology and policy, held to one standard of evidence.

GCRI turns national and institutional questions about systemic risk into science that can be examined, technology that can be tested and policy options that competent institutions can adopt.

Research workbench · methods, sources and reviewIllustrative
Research workbench, illustrative interface An illustrative research workbench: a compound drought and heat scenario with an observed history and a scenario range, a model card listing method, version, inputs, uncertainty and review, and three policy options compared side by side.

Fig. 02aThe workbench a research programme works in. Wireframe, not a live screen.

GCRI supplies the technical basis. Every decision stays with the competent authority. Each offer, with who it is for and what it involves, is set out on GCRI programmes and services.

Research

Risk science

Multi-hazard and climate risk, systemic and cascading risk, foresight, and country evidence published with its methods and uncertainty.

Technology and intelligence

Risk technology

The shared Nexus Foundry environment, earth observation, sovereign data and AI, shared computing, and resilience engineering for critical infrastructure.

Policy

Policy research and standards

Technical options for public decisions, interoperable data and methods, and bounded technical assistance to the institutions that decide.

Every claim on a GCRI page rests on a named method with its own page in the STEM Commons: four strands, 54 methods, from hydrology and epidemiology to extreme value theory and AI assurance. Browse the STEM Commons.

05How Nexus works

One cycle from a national question to a tested, published answer.

Programmes are designed to move through the same eight steps. GCRI leads the evidence and the build, provides the technical office for the annual test, and hands each decision to the institution that holds it.

  1. QuestionNational programmeA country, region or institution names a priority with an accountable owner.
  2. EvidenceGCRI · STEM foundationSources, observations, methods and uncertainty establish what is known and what is not.
  3. BuildNexus FoundryData products, models and scenarios are built and compared in a governed environment.
  4. OrganizeNexus EcosystemInstitutions, leaders and experts take part through the NNC, NLC and NWG.
  5. TestNexus Universe · GRFSelected work is tested in the annual programme: a month to build, a week to test, then a planned stand-down.
  6. PublishNexus ReportsReviewed findings, failures and corrections become citable, versioned evidence.
  7. DecideCompetent authoritiesGovernments, operators and licensed institutions act under their own authority.
  8. RenewNext annual agendaCorrections and lessons reset the priorities of the next cycle.
Process canvas · the cycle as a run graphDesign, not a record
The Nexus cycle as a computational graph A national question flows through evidence, a governed build, organization, a controlled test, publication and a decision under the competent authority, then renews the agenda. Build is marked running. Design of the cycle, not a record of a run.

Fig. 03aThe same eight steps, showing what feeds what and who owns each step. Illustrative states; no edition is on record.

Fig. 03A country report edition, with its evidence labels and version history. Released editions are published on Nexus Reports.

Nexus Reports · country editionIllustrative
Country report edition, illustrative interface An illustrative report edition: the annual flagship of the Country Systems Risk and Resilience Report with its chapters, the evidence labels every finding carries, a review chain from methods to publisher sign-off, and a version history in which a correction creates a new version.
06National programmes and the specialist network

Nationally owned, technically supported, comparable across borders.

Each country builds its own National Nexus programme with accountable national counterparts. GCRI provides the technical backbone so that national work meets a common standard, and thirty specialist platforms carry the science field by field.

National Model · run consoleIllustrative
Country systems digital twin, illustrative interface An illustrative digital twin of a country's systems: a hexagonal exposure field over a river basin with stressed and elevated cells, a coupled-systems graph with a highlighted propagation chain from water through energy and infrastructure to health, a state ledger with evidence labels, telemetry sparklines for reservoir level, grid demand and heat index, and a scenario queue. Names and values are placeholders, not results.

Fig. 04A country model run, with the evidence label of every input. Wireframe, not a live screen or a constituted programme.

How a national programme forms

  1. Formation

    A dossier with the local ownership model, host options, first risk questions, safeguards, resources and exit conditions.

  2. National Desk and National Model

    Coordination and records, and a governed model of the country's systems, evidence and uncertainty: the stress field above.

  3. Participation

    Institutions in the National Nexus Consortium (NNC), leaders in the National Leadership Council (NLC) and experts in the National Working Groups (NWG).

  4. Annual cycle and reports

    Missions tested in the annual programme and progress published in quarterly country editions.

Specialist communities grounded in science and engineering

Each platform brings together the people who work on one field or one shared service and applies named methods to it. Eleven are established; nineteen are in development, with activities, records and services published as each opens.

The full directory, with each platform's thesis and its counterparts at GRF and GRA, is on the GCRI specialist network. To discuss a national programme, start with a national programme enquiry.

07Two organizations, three institutions

One institution, working through two organizations.

GCRI is one pillar institution. Its work is carried by GCRI Canada, the lead organization, and GCRI US, each with its own legal identity, governance and responsibilities.

Nexus Foundry is operated at national and regional level by Nexus Consortiums through their host and lead organizations, within a multilateral programme led by three pillar not-for-profit institutions on a public-private-planet partnership.

GCRI; The Global Risks Forum (GRF), which leads leadership, dialogue and the annual programme; and The Global Risks Alliance (GRA), which translates risk evidence into the questions finance, insurance and development institutions ask. None decides for the institutions taking part.

Lead organization

GCRI Canada

A Canadian not-for-profit organization: Consortium Secretariat and global contracting party in support of the national and regional consortiums, running the global-to-local deployment of Nexus Foundry under a strict not-for-profit mandate.

Toronto, ON M4R 1V2 · contact@therisk.global

United States institution of GCRI

GCRI US

A separate organization within Nexus Consortiums with its own legal identity and responsibilities, working within GCRI's mandate for research, development and policy.

4500 Forbes Blvd., Suite 200, Lanham, MD 20706, United States · gcrius@therisk.global

GCRI network · institutions and platformsFrom the registry
GCRI specialist network, illustrative interface An illustrative directory of the GCRI specialist network: its platforms with one selected, the STEM foundation of the selected platform, its place in the Nexus cycle, and counterpart platforms at the other pillar institutions.
08Routes in

Start with the question that matters most to you.

Each route begins with a scoping conversation and a defined first outcome. Cooperation with governments and public institutions never depends on buying a membership tier.

  1. Governments and agencies

    A national question about connected risk

    A country-scoping dialogue: a scoping note, an authority map and a decision on whether to proceed.

    First outcome: scoping noteNo fee at R0
  2. UN and development institutions

    A programme that needs comparable evidence

    Programme cooperation through your own instruments, with a results and evidence plan.

    First outcome: evidence planYour instruments
  3. Universities and research

    A method, a dataset or a testbed

    Research, review and testbeds, with a publication route that keeps negative findings possible.

    First outcome: review scopeNegative findings publishable
  4. Operators and enterprises

    A dependency you cannot see from inside

    Dependency studies and controlled test designs, handed back to the operator.

    First outcome: dependency studyThe decision stays the operator's
  5. Institutions, leaders and experts

    A place in the national structures

    The NNC, NLC and NWG pathways, with no fee for ordinary working-group participation.

    Pathways: NNC, NLC, NWGWorking groups: no fee
  6. Communities and the public

    A question, local knowledge or a concern

    Questions, local knowledge and concerns, with no membership or account needed.

    No account neededCorrections open to anyone

Open now: information and enquiries. Enquiries receive a reference. Applications, contributions, computing allocations and event registration open only when their team, terms and review capacity are in place. Pathways for every audience are on Work with GCRI.

09Key terms

Terms used on this page.

Each term as this institution uses it on this page.

Term Definition
Systemic risk Risk that arises from the dependencies between systems, so that a shock in one, such as a drought, travels into others such as power, food and health.
National Nexus The complete country operating programme of Nexus Consortiums, owned by national counterparts and supported technically by GCRI.
Nexus Foundry The persistent work environment of the programme, where projects, models, evidence, decisions and programme memory are kept between editions.
10Questions

Common questions about GCRI.

Service level
R0
Information and enquiries; no fee for a scoping note
Evidence labels
9
One label on every published finding
Corrections
Open
Anyone may challenge a published page
What is systemic risk, and why does GCRI focus on it?
Systemic risk is the risk that a failure in one system spreads to others through shared dependencies, so that a local shock becomes a national or cross-border one. GCRI focuses on it because sector-by-sector assessment tends to miss these cascades, which are often the most damaging events a country faces.
Is GCRI a government body, regulator or funder?
No. GCRI works across Canada and the United States. It provides research, technology and policy research and holds no regulatory, sovereign or fiduciary authority; its statuses and memberships do not confer any. It does not fund, invest in or approve projects; finance and development readiness is led by The Global Risks Alliance (GRA), and decisions remain with competent public and licensed institutions.
What is the difference between GCRI Canada and GCRI US?
They are two organizations of one institution. GCRI Canada is the lead organization, the Consortium Secretariat and the global contracting party in support of the national and regional consortiums. GCRI US is the United States institution of GCRI, a separate organization with its own legal identity and responsibilities.
Who owns a national programme and its data?
The country. National structures set the agenda, keep authority over their data and may decline participation or sharing. GCRI provides methods, technical infrastructure and assistance under agreed scopes and rights.
What can I do today?
Read about the programme and send an enquiry. The current service level is information and enquiries: each enquiry receives a reference, and the acknowledgement names the next step. Applications, payments and computing allocations are not yet open. Privacy, security, integrity, media and other specific routes are listed on Contact GCRI.
How does GCRI relate to GRF and GRA?
The three are separate not-for-profit institutions that lead one programme. GCRI leads research, development, policy research and the Secretariat; GRF leads leadership, dialogue and governance of the annual Nexus Universe programme; GRA leads the finance, insurance and development-readiness interface.
Related
Consortium Secretariat

Build national capability for a world of connected risk.

The Secretariat confirms the right route, the scope of useful work and the conditions for any further step. An enquiry receives a reference; it does not create membership, an appointment or a service contract.

Write to the Secretariat See all contact routes
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