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Reports
Baseline Edition 2026
Complete edition

Global Climate Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Climate and Earth System.

Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsGS-07

Global Sector Risk and Resilience

Global Climate 2026

Baseline Edition 2026NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut DC-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Global Climate Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Climate and Earth System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/gs-07/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. Climate sets the terms for the other systems
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. A strong El Niño on a 1.5 °C background
6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

Global Climate 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

6 min read1 figure0 tables13 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

The world enters 2027 with a climate that is warmer than in any year before 2023, still warming, and about to be pushed higher by a strong El Niño. 2025 was the third-warmest year in the ERA5 record at 1.47 °C above the pre-industrial level, and 2023 to 2025 was the first three-year period above 1.5 °C¹. Human-induced warming reached 1.37 °C in 2025 and is rising by about 0.27 °C a decade⁷. Carbon dioxide averaged 423.9 ppm in 2024 on the WMO network, 52% above the pre-industrial level; the 2025 annual value was not bound at the close³¹. Fossil CO2 emissions are projected to rise about 1.0% in 2025, and the remaining budget for a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 °C is 170 GtCO2 in the Global Carbon Budget and 130 GtCO2 in the Indicators of Global Climate Change, three to four years at current emissions⁶⁷. More than 91% of the excess heat is in the ocean, which reached a record heat content in 2025². August 2026 was 1.65 °C above the pre-industrial level, the 12-month mean to August was 1.48 °C, and NOAA gives a chance above 90% of a very strong El Niño in the northern fall and winter of 2026 to 2027⁴⁷⁴⁸. Impacts are concentrated. 2025 was one of the driest years for rivers in more than three decades²⁴, modelled heat deaths in 854 European cities reached 430,365 over 2000 to 2025²³, and 645 million people faced hunger in 2025²⁶. Climate finance reached USD 1.9 trillion in 2023, with adaptation at USD 65 billion²⁰. This baseline sets out what the evidence supports and where it is thin. It ranks no country and recommends no policy.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the climate baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

2025 was 1.47 °C above pre-industrial in ERA5, third-warmest on record.¹
How warm is the world?Reported
Yes. Human-induced warming is 1.37 °C and rising about 0.27 °C a decade.⁷
Is it still warming?Reported
Yes. Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide reached records; CO2 averaged 423.9 ppm in 2024 on the WMO network.³¹
Are gases still rising?Reported
About 130 to 170 GtCO2 for a 50% chance of 1.5 °C, three to four years at current emissions.⁶⁷
How much carbon budget is left?Reported
More than 91% is in the ocean, at a record in 2025.²
Where is the heat?Reported
Heat deaths, river deficits and hunger fall hardest on older people, exposed workers and low-income regions.²¹²⁴²⁶
Who bears the impacts?Reported
119 countries report multi-hazard systems; only 43% of small island developing States do.²⁵
Is early warning in place?Reported
A strong El Niño on a 1.5 °C background. SCN-GS07-ELN-01
What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

From the start of 2026, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is 170 GtCO2 in the Global Carbon Budget and 130 GtCO2 in the Indicators of Global Climate Change.

Figure S.1Remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C, 50% likelihood, from 2026 (GtCO2)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Global Carbon Budget 2025		170
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025		130

Sources: Friedlingstein et al.⁶; Forster et al.⁷.

The two assessments agree that the budget is nearly exhausted: about 4 years at the 2025 emissions level in one, a little more than 3 years in the other. They differ by 40 GtCO2, and each issuer states its own method. The budget can also change by about 200 GtCO2 depending on how far non-CO2 emissions fall⁷.

S.4At a glance

1.47°C

above pre-industrial, 2025¹

1.37°C

human-induced warming, 2025⁷

423.9ppm

carbon dioxide, 2024, WMO network³¹

170GtCO2

remaining budget for 1.5 °C⁶

645million

facing hunger, 2025²⁶

119countries

with multi-hazard early warning²⁵

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading climate as the condition layer of the WEFH+B system.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people climate risk arrives as a hotter summer, a failed harvest or a flooded street.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Event losses are rising, adaptation finance is small beside mitigation finance and the carbon budget is nearly used.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The climate system is well measured at the level of global indicators and thinly measured at the level of regional impacts, adaptation spending and tested capability.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s climate and Earth system and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.

What it is not

Not a ranking of countries, a forecast of weather, a projection of any national outcome, an attribution of any single event or an assessment of any government, company or negotiating position. Climate policy and adaptation rest with national authorities, regulators and the parties to the climate treaties.

What comes next

National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 climate edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.24381/b3nm-p354 back
7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026 back
31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026 back
2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21WHO (ed.), Climate change and health, fact sheet (12 October 2023). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Opened: fact sheet. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Climate 2026
Chapter 1

Climate sets the terms for the other systems

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It ranks no country or operator and assesses no authority.

6 min read2 figures1 table13 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is climate risk concentrated?
Which couplings carry climate shocks into other systems?
Which climate capabilities hold under compound stress?
What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five coupling chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

Climate is usually reported as a temperature: one number for each year. The 2026 evidence reads it as the condition under which water, food, health, nature and the economy operate. A warmer ocean changes rainfall, a warmer atmosphere changes heat exposure, and both change what a harvest, a river or a clinic can bear²²⁴²⁶.

The warming is large and still rising. 2025 was 1.47 °C above the pre-industrial level in ERA5, the three years 2023 to 2025 averaged 1.52 °C, and human-induced warming reached 1.37 °C at 0.27 °C a decade¹⁷. Atmospheric carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are at record levels³¹.

The budget is nearly spent. For a 50% chance of staying below 1.5 °C, 170 GtCO2 remain in the Global Carbon Budget and 130 GtCO2 in the Indicators of Global Climate Change, three to four years of emissions at the 2025 level⁶⁷. Most of the excess heat, more than 91%, sits in the ocean².

Impacts are concentrated and compounding. 2025 was one of the driest years for rivers in more than three decades, modelled heat deaths across European cities have risen with warming, and 645 million people faced hunger²⁴²³²⁶. A strong El Niño is now developing on top of this background⁴⁸.

Figure 1.1Where does the excess heat go? Share of the extra energy held by the climate system (%)

The surface temperature that people feel is about 1% of the excess energy. The ocean holds more than 91%, which buffers land temperatures now and commits the ocean to warming and sea-level rise for centuries².

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Ocean		91
Land		5
Ice melt and warming		3
Atmosphere		1

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2025.

Figure ID FIG-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-01-003

11cm

sea level above the 1993 start of the satellite record, 2025²

11.0 to 12.2ZJ a year

ocean heating rate, 2005 to 2025²

29%

of human CO2 absorbed by the ocean, 2015 to 2024²

90%

of ocean surface with a marine heatwave in 2025²

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The climate-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their climate content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	MODERATE hydropower and cooling in dry years	STRONG rain-fed and irrigated crops	STRONG floods, scarcity and water-borne disease	STRONG river flow and wetlands
ENE Energy	MODERATE pumping and treatment	·	MODERATE cold chains and pumping	STRONG cooling and clinic power in heat	MODERATE mining and land use
FOO Food	MODERATE withdrawals	WEAK bioenergy	·	STRONG hunger and nutrition	MODERATE land conversion
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	WEAK labour	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	MODERATE catchments	WEAK biomass	MODERATE pollination and soils	WEAK zoonoses	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
CLI → WAT → FOO
River deficits and heat cut crop and pasture output.
Inferred 2025 river deficits²⁴; strong El Niño 2026⁴⁸
02
CLI → HLT
Heat waves raise deaths among older people and outdoor workers.
Reported Europe 2022 and 2000 to 2025²²²³
03
CLI → INF → FIN
Storms and fires destroy assets and strain public budgets.
Reported Jamaica and Los Angeles 2025³
04
CLI → BIO
Ocean heat and acidification push reefs past thresholds.
Reported reefs at 1.4 °C¹⁶; acidification¹⁹
05
CLI → FOO → HLT
Weather extremes raise food insecurity and malnutrition.
Inferred hunger projections omit El Niño²⁶; extremes and food³

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.24381/b3nm-p354 back
7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026 back
31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026 back
23Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z back
3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19Findlay, H.S. et al., Ocean Acidification: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1111/gcb.70238 back

Global Climate 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the climate baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables21 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005

From the start of 2026, the remaining carbon budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is 170 GtCO2 in the Global Carbon Budget and 130 GtCO2 in the Indicators of Global Climate Change.

Figure 2.1Remaining carbon budget for 1.5 °C, 50% likelihood, from 2026 (GtCO2)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Global Carbon Budget 2025		170
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025		130

Sources: Friedlingstein et al.⁶; Forster et al.⁷.

Implication

What would move it

The next Global Carbon Budget, the 2026 emissions estimate and the next annual indicators update would each move this finding.

2.2Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001
2025 was the third-warmest year in ERA5 at 1.47 °C above pre-industrial, with 2023 to 2025 averaging 1.52 °C; WMO gives about 1.43 °C, and human-induced warming reached 1.37 °C at a rate of 0.27 °C a decade.¹²⁷⁹¹⁰
ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002
August 2026 was 1.65 °C above pre-industrial and the 12-month mean to August was 1.48 °C; NOAA gives a chance above 90% of a very strong El Niño in the northern fall and winter of 2026 to 2027.⁴⁷⁴⁸⁴
ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003
Global carbon dioxide averaged 423.9 ppm in 2024 on the WMO network, 52% above pre-industrial; methane at 1942 ppb and nitrous oxide at 338.0 ppb were also at record levels. The 2025 annual values are not bound at the close.³¹
ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-005
The remaining budget for a 50% chance of limiting warming to 1.5 °C is 170 GtCO2 in the Global Carbon Budget and 130 GtCO2 in the Indicators of Global Climate Change, both from the start of 2026.⁶⁷
ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-006
More than 91% of the excess heat is stored in the ocean, ocean heat content was a record in 2025, global sea level was about 11 cm above its 1993 level, and the 2025 Arctic winter maximum was the lowest on record.²⁷¹

2.3Energy

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004
Fossil CO2 emissions were 37.8 GtCO2 in 2024, up 1.1%, and are projected up about 1.0% in 2025; EDGAR gives 53.2 GtCO2e of all greenhouse gases in 2024, excluding land use.⁶¹²⁷

2.4Water

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007
2025 was one of the driest years for river discharge in more than three decades, and the past seven years have had the fewest rivers with normal flow since 1991.²⁴²

2.5Health

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008
Modelled heat deaths in 854 European cities were 430,365 over 2000 to 2025, with the attributed share rising from 39% in 2000 to 68% in 2025; the 2022 summer alone was estimated at 61,672 heat deaths in Europe.²³²²

2.6Food

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009
About 645 million people faced hunger in 2025, down about 14 million on 2024, and the five-year projections do not include El Niño effects in 2026 and 2027.²⁶³

2.7Finance

ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010
Climate finance reached USD 1.9 trillion in 2023, of which adaptation was USD 65 billion and mitigation USD 1,780 billion.²⁰

2.8Biodiversity

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011
Warm-water coral reefs are crossing a thermal tipping point at 1.4 °C of warming, and six of nine planetary boundaries are transgressed.¹⁶¹⁸¹⁷¹⁹

2.9Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a strong El Niño that coincides with record warmth, river deficits and food stress in exposed regions. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026 back
7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026 back
1Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.24381/b3nm-p354 back
2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (ed.), GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4), global land-ocean annual table. NASA, New York. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia (eds.), HadCRUT5 analysis, global annual summary series. Met Office, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4WMO (ed.), Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026 to 2035, press release of 28 May 2026 (Met Office as lead centre). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (predictions for 2026 to 2030). Opened: press release; the full update was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12Crippa, M. et al., GHG emissions of all world countries 2025 (JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 40443). European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2024. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z back
26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, 2023. DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adh2458. Observation year 2023. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 back
17Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, 2022. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19Findlay, H.S. et al., Ocean Acidification: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1111/gcb.70238 back

Global Climate 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

6 min read0 figures2 tables15 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

CLI · Climate

Global surface air temperature above pre-industrial (ERA5)

1.47°C

third-warmest year; 2023 to 2025 mean 1.52 °C.

Reported2025C3S¹

CLI · Greenhouse gases

Global carbon dioxide concentration (WMO network)

423.9ppm

52% above pre-industrial; the 2025 annual value is not bound at the close.

Reported2024WMO³¹

ENE · Emissions

Fossil CO2 emissions, with 2025 projected up about 1.0%

37.8GtCO2

with land use, 42.4 GtCO2.

Reported2024GCB⁶

CLI · Ocean

Share of excess heat stored in the ocean

>91%

ocean heat content at a record in 2025.

Reported2025WMO²

HLT · Health

Modelled heat deaths, 854 European cities, 2000 to 2025

430,365deaths

just over half attributed to human-induced warming.

Reported2025Barnes et al.²³

SYS · Cross-system

Chance of a very strong El Niño in the northern fall and winter of 2026 to 2027

>90%

NOAA outlook of 10 September 2026.

Scenario2026NOAA⁴⁸

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through climate, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries climate risk into each domain.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	2025 was one of the driest years for rivers in more than three decades; the past seven years had the fewest normal flows since 1991.	CLI → WAT	Reported EQL 4
ENE	Fossil CO2 emissions 37.8 GtCO2 in 2024, projected up about 1.0% in 2025; the supply and demand side is read in the energy edition.	ENE → CLI	Reported EQL 4
FOO	645 million faced hunger in 2025; the projections omit El Niño effects in 2026 and 2027.	CLI → FOO	Reported EQL 4
HLT	Modelled heat deaths of 430,365 in 854 European cities over 2000 to 2025; 1.2 billion workers face workplace heat risk.	CLI → HLT	Reported EQL 4
BIO	Warm-water coral reefs crossing a thermal tipping point; six of nine planetary boundaries transgressed.	CLI ↔ BIO	Reported EQL 4
CLI	The core system: 1.47 °C above pre-industrial in 2025, record gases, nearly spent budget.	the core system	Reported EQL 5
INF	Storm, fire and flood damage: Hurricane Melissa damage equal to 41% of Jamaica’s GDP; over USD 60 billion for the Los Angeles fires.	CLI → INF	Reported EQL 3
FIN	USD 1.9 trillion of climate finance in 2023, adaptation USD 65 billion; losses from events are not on one basis.	CLI ↔ FIN	Reported EQL 3
DAT	Long observing records underpin every indicator; programme continuity is threatened by funding decisions.	DAT → CLI	Reported EQL 3
AIC	Machine-learning forecasting and compute demand both touch the climate system; evidence is not consolidated here.	AIC ↔ CLI	Expert input EQL 1
MIN	Mitigation and adaptation technologies draw on minerals; the evidence is not consolidated here.	MIN ↔ CLI	Expert input EQL 1
TRD	Trade carries climate shocks into food and goods markets; the evidence is not consolidated here.	CLI → TRD	Expert input EQL 2

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on climate, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	climate sets conditions for all five core systems²⁸	concurrent extremes	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	one of the driest years for rivers in 35 years²⁴	swings between deficit and flood	GOOD
GS-02	Energy	fossil CO2 projected up about 1.0% in 2025⁶	heat-driven demand	GOOD
GS-03	Food	645 million facing hunger in 2025²⁶	El Niño and weather extremes	PARTIAL
GS-04	Health	modelled heat deaths in 854 European cities²³	heat waves; dengue	GOOD
GS-05	Finance	USD 1.9 trillion of climate finance in 2023²⁰	uninsured event losses	PARTIAL
GS-06	Development	3.3 to 3.6 billion in highly vulnerable contexts⁸	compounding disasters	PARTIAL
GS-07	Climate	human-induced warming of 1.37 °C in 2025⁷	overshoot of 1.5 °C	GOOD
GS-08	Disaster	119 countries report early warning systems²⁵	cascading losses	GOOD
GS-09	Infrastructure	Hurricane Melissa damage equal to 41% of Jamaica’s GDP³	coastal and flood damage	THIN
GS-10	Cities	heat deaths in 854 European cities²³	urban heat	PARTIAL
GS-11	Biodiversity	reefs crossing a thermal tipping point at 1.4 °C¹⁶	ocean heat and acidification	PARTIAL
GS-12	Earth observation	observing programmes threatened by funding decisions⁷	continuity of missions	PARTIAL
GS-13	Cyber and digital	no consolidated evidence in this edition	loss of warning services	THIN
GS-14	Policy	194 Parties to the Paris Agreement²⁸	overshoot and ambition gap	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	twelve indicator sets tracked each year⁷	next IPCC assessment	GOOD

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.24381/b3nm-p354 back
31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026 back
2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026 back
25UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), Paris Agreement, Paris, 12 December 2015 (status page). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026 (status at access). Opened: status page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Climate 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four climate risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

5 min read0 figures1 table14 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS07-CLI-001
Overshoot of 1.5 °C and rising extremes
Driver
record greenhouse gas concentrations and a developing strong El Niño³¹⁴⁸
Exposure
all regions; coasts, cities, outdoor workers
Vulnerability
3.3 to 3.6 billion people live in highly vulnerable contexts⁸
Capacity
early warning, heat plans, cooling and shelter²⁵
Cascade
CLI → WAT, FOO, HLT, INF
Horizon
1 to 5 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS07-WAT-002
River deficits and swings between drought and flood
Driver
a more erratic water cycle and shrinking land water storage²⁴
Exposure
irrigated farming, cities, river-fed power and transport
Vulnerability
low storage; over-allocated basins
Capacity
storage, demand management, forecasting
Cascade
WAT → FOO, HLT, BIO
Horizon
1 to 3 years
InferredEQL 3RSK-GS07-BIO-003
Reef and forest tipping under warming and local stress
Driver
warming near 1.5 °C with non-climate stress¹⁶
Exposure
coral reefs, the Amazon, polar ice
Vulnerability
thresholds are uncertain and irreversible on human timescales
Capacity
reducing local stress such as deforestation and overfishing¹⁶
Cascade
BIO → FOO, HLT, FIN
Horizon
5 to 10 years
InferredEQL 3RSK-GS07-FIN-004
Protection and adaptation finance gap
Driver
event losses rising while adaptation finance is small beside mitigation finance²⁰³
Exposure
low-income and island economies
Vulnerability
limited access to affordable capital
Capacity
public adaptation finance, insurance, anticipatory action
Cascade
FIN → INF, HLT, FOO
Horizon
1 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for climate at the global level.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	EXISTS	the Paris Agreement has 194 Parties; emissions are still rising²⁸⁶
Monitoring and observation	ADEQUATE	strong global indicator series; observing programmes under funding pressure⁷⁵
Early warning	EXISTS	119 countries report multi-hazard systems; 43% of small island developing States²⁵
Preparedness and planning	EXISTS	heat and drought plans in many countries; implementation uneven⁸
Redundancy and reserves	LISTED	reserves against climate shocks are not consolidated here
Response	DEMONSTRATED	emergency response in the 2025 events, with losses and displacement recorded³
Continuity of critical services	LISTED	continuity under climate extremes is not consolidated here
Recovery	EXISTS	recovery follows major events; outcomes are not consolidated³
Adaptation	EXISTS	planning is widespread; most observed adaptation is small in scale and incremental⁸
Social protection	LISTED	climate-specific support for poor households is not consolidated
Finance and insurance	EXISTS	climate finance of USD 1.9 trillion in 2023; adaptation USD 65 billion²⁰
Institutional coordination	EXISTS	the climate treaty process and the Early Warnings for All initiative²⁸²⁵
Technical infrastructure	ADEQUATE	designated centres produce annual to decadal predictions⁴
Workforce	LISTED	skills for climate services are not consolidated; about half of countries had heat warnings for health in 2023²
Research capacity	ADEQUATE	strong indicator and attribution science with annual updates⁷
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), Paris Agreement, Paris, 12 December 2015 (status page). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026 (status at access). Opened: status page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026 back
7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026 back
5POST-CLOSE, context only: Lan, X., Tans, P. and Thoning, K.W., Trends in globally averaged CO2, CH4 and N2O, annual mean data files (version of 9 October 2026). NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder. DOI 10.15138/9N0H-ZH07 (CO2). Observation year 2025. Opened: data files. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.15138/9N0H-ZH07 back
4WMO (ed.), Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026 to 2035, press release of 28 May 2026 (Met Office as lead centre). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (predictions for 2026 to 2030). Opened: press release; the full update was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Climate 2026
Chapter 5

A strong El Niño on a 1.5 °C background

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables3 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: a strong to very strong El Niño that peaks around the turn of 2026 to 2027 on top of record greenhouse gas levels⁴⁸³¹
Analogues: the 2023 to 2024 El Niño and the 2024 record year¹
Interventions: none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
CLI
ocean heat release lifts global temperature; months above 1.5 °C become frequent
2023 · 2024 · 2026
2
CLI → WAT
rainfall shifts: deficits in some basins, floods in others
2023 · 2025
3
WAT → FOO
harvest and pasture shortfalls in exposed regions
2023 · 2024
4
CLI → HLT
heat waves and peaks of vector-borne disease
2024 · 2025
5
FOO → HLT
hunger and malnutrition rise where stocks and incomes are thin
2024
6
CLI → FIN
event losses and relief needs strain public budgets
2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01 would travel through Global Climate and Earth Systems‘s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Climate to water	Rainfall shifts: deficits in some basins, floods in others. Analogue or source: 2023 · 2025.	Edition GS-07, scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01, step 2
02 Water to food	Harvest and pasture shortfalls in exposed regions. Analogue or source: 2023 · 2024.	Edition GS-07, scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01, step 3
03 Climate to health	Heat waves and peaks of vector-borne disease. Analogue or source: 2024 · 2025.	Edition GS-07, scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01, step 4
04 Food to health	Hunger and malnutrition rise where stocks and incomes are thin. Analogue or source: 2024.	Edition GS-07, scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01, step 5
05 Climate to finance	Event losses and relief needs strain public budgets. Analogue or source: 2025.	Edition GS-07, scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Climate 2026, scenario SCN-GS07-ELN-01 (2026); Global Climate 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.24381/b3nm-p354 back

Global Climate 2026
Chapter 6

Readings from the other desks

The climate baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

18 min read0 figures8 tables48 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Academy Capability	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Index Measurement	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports reading climate as the condition layer of the WEFH+B system. Warming, gases and ocean heat are at records, the carbon budget for 1.5 °C is nearly spent, and impacts concentrate where adaptation capacity is lowest. Evidence is strongest for global indicators and weakest for regional impacts, adaptation finance and tested capability.

CLI-001 · CLI-005 · WAT-007 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For most people climate risk arrives as a hotter summer, a failed harvest or a flooded street. The baseline asks that public debate keep the global numbers and the local consequences in view together, and say plainly which values are observed, which are modelled and which are projected.

HLT-008 · FOO-009 · CLI-002

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. Event losses are rising, adaptation finance is small beside mitigation finance and the carbon budget is nearly used²⁰³⁶. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.

FIN-010 · CLI-005

NEXUS

Synthesis

The climate system is well measured at the level of global indicators and thinly measured at the level of regional impacts, adaptation spending and tested capability. The 2027 programme should bind regional hazard evidence, test the El Niño compound pathway and track tipping signals before thresholds are crossed.

SYS-012 · C-01 · C-05

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for climate. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability exist?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests show?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What changed in the year, and what renews?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
GCRI Canada	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Reports sector desks	climate chapter inputs: GCRI evidence, GRA readiness, NXS standards, RA capability	sector editorial board

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Every extreme of 2025 was a water event, a food event and a health event at once. Treating climate as an environmental topic understates how it carries risk between systems. This edition asks where a climate shock goes next.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Climate is a condition, not a sector

Two peer-reviewed assessments put the remaining 1.5 °C budget at 130 and 170 GtCO2. The gap between them is smaller than one year of emissions. What matters for planning is that both are nearly spent.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

The budget is the clock

Every indicator in this edition rests on long observing records. The authors of the annual indicators update warn that satellite and ocean monitoring is threatened by funding decisions. Keeping the record is the first adaptation.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Measurement is infrastructure

A global mean hides the heat deaths of a city, the dry river of a basin and the empty granary of a region. Early warning exists in 119 countries and is thinnest in small island developing States. Closing that gap is part of the climate baseline.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Impacts are local, the numbers are global

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 climate readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.32027 climate readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First 2027 entry
E1	Climate risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five global system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	Federation delivery register	national chapters in preparation	national chapters
E5	Consortium capability register	national consortia forming	first contributions
E6	Leadership questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	national environments prepared	first federation cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first federation-wide cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement²⁸	United Nations	global	IN FORCE	temperature goals
Global Stocktake decision⁴⁵	UNFCCC	global	ADOPTED 2023	collective assessment
Climate Law⁴³	European Union	EU	IN FORCE	binding targets
IFRS S2 climate-related disclosures²⁷	IFRS Foundation	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	disclosure
ISO 14064-1⁴¹	ISO	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	emissions quantification
ISO 14090⁴²	ISO	global	PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY	adaptation
Early Warnings for All initiative²⁵	United Nations	global	PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE	early warning by 2027

Changed since 2024

WMO and UNDRR reported 119 countries with multi-hazard early warning systems at COP30 in November 2025²⁵
The 2026 edition of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report was released on 21 October 2026, after the evidence close³³⁴⁶
The WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 22 of 27 October 2026 reports 2025 concentrations, after the evidence close³²

To watch in 2027

Updated national climate targets and the 2035 ambition gap³⁵⁴⁶
Disclosure rules that adopt the IFRS S2 standard in national law²⁷
Progress to universal early warning coverage by 2027²⁵

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers climate assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about the world’s climate and Earth system and its couplings?
Sources searched: agency flagships; monitoring services; peer-reviewed climate and health literature; statistics
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Table 6.5Peer-reviewed science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Forster et al.⁷	journal article	2026	supports	warming, forcing, budget
Friedlingstein et al.⁶	journal article	2026	supports	emissions, budget, sinks
Saunois et al.¹¹	journal article	2025	supports	methane budget
IPCC AR6 Synthesis Report⁸	assessment	2023	context	warming, vulnerability
Armstrong McKay et al.¹⁷	journal article	2022	context	tipping thresholds
Richardson et al.¹⁸	journal article	2023	context	planetary boundaries
Findlay et al.¹⁹	journal article	2025	context	ocean acidification boundary
Ballester et al.²²	journal article	2023	supports	heat deaths in 2022
Barnes et al.²³	journal article	2026	supports	attributed heat deaths
Zscheischler et al.⁴⁴	journal article	2018	framework	compound events

Table 6.6Institutional flagships
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
State of the Global Climate 2025²³	WMO	2026	supports	indicators, extremes
Global Climate Highlights 2025¹	C3S	2026	supports	temperature, sea ice
Annual to Decadal Climate Update⁴	WMO	2026	supports	five-year outlook
State of Global Water Resources 2025²⁴	WMO	2026	supports	rivers
Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems²⁵	WMO and UNDRR	2025	supports	early warning
SOFI 2026²⁶	five UN agencies	2026	supports	hunger
Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21³¹	WMO	2025	supports	concentrations
European State of the Climate 2025³⁰	C3S and WMO	2026	context	Europe
Emissions Gap Report 2025³⁴	UNEP	2025	context	ambition gap
Adaptation Gap Report 2025³⁶	UNEP	2025	context	adaptation

Table 6.7Statistics, indicators and monitoring
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Global annual means⁵	NOAA	2026	context	gas concentrations; post-close
GISTEMP v4⁹	NASA	2026	context	temperature series
HadCRUT5¹⁰	Met Office	2026	context	temperature series
GHG emissions of all world countries 2025¹²	JRC	2025	supports	all-gas emissions
Surface air temperature bulletin, August 2026⁴⁷	C3S	2026	supports	current state
ENSO diagnostic discussion, 10 September 2026⁴⁸	NOAA CPC	2026	supports	El Niño outlook
Surface air temperature bulletin, September 2026¹³	C3S	2026	context	post-close
ENSO diagnostic discussion, 8 October 2026¹⁴	NOAA CPC	2026	context	post-close
Sea Ice Today¹⁵	NSIDC	2026	supports	sea ice
Global Report on Internal Displacement 2026²⁹	IDMC	2026	context	displacement
Carbon pricing report³⁹	World Bank	2025	context	carbon prices

Table 6.8Standards, finance and legal instruments
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Paris Agreement²⁸	United Nations	2016	context	treaty status
IFRS S2²⁷	IFRS Foundation	2023	context	disclosure
Global Stocktake decision⁴⁵	UNFCCC	2023	context	collective assessment
Climate Law⁴³	European Union	2021	context	binding targets
ISO 14064-1⁴¹	ISO	2018	context	emissions quantification
ISO 14090⁴²	ISO	2019	context	adaptation
Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025²⁰	CPI	2025	supports	finance flows
Climate finance provided and mobilised⁴⁰	OECD	2024	context	public finance
Global Tipping Points Report 2025¹⁶	University of Exeter	2025	context	tipping risk
Climate change and health²¹	WHO	2023	supports	health risks
Lancet Countdown 2025³⁷	journal report	2025	context	health indicators
Global Assessment Report special report³⁸	UNDRR	2025	context	disaster risk

Where the evidence agrees

Warming is caused by human activity and is still rising⁷⁸
Carbon dioxide, methane and nitrous oxide are at record levels³¹
The ocean holds most of the excess heat²

Where it is unsettled

When the long-term 1.5 °C level is crossed: C3S points to about 2029, WMO gives a 75% chance that the 2026 to 2030 mean exceeds it¹⁴
The size of the remaining budget: 170 versus 130 GtCO2⁶⁷
The methane budget: bottom-up estimates exceed top-down by 16%¹¹

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

20Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026 back
28United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), Paris Agreement, Paris, 12 December 2015 (status page). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026 (status at access). Opened: status page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC, decision 1/CMA.5, outcome of the first global stocktake (December 2023). Bonn. Observation year 2023. The issuer site refused automated access; cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union. Observation year 2021. The legal database page did not load; the number and title were cited from memory and should be checked against the Official Journal. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (standard page). International Sustainability Standards Board, London. Observation year 2024 (effective date). Opened: standard page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO, ISO 14064-1:2018 Greenhouse gases, part 1: specification with guidance at the organisation level for quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. The issuer site refused automated access; the title was cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO, ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to climate change, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. The issuer site refused automated access; the title was cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33POST-CLOSE, context only: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (ed.), Latest News listing, item of 21 October 2026 on the new UNEP Emissions Gap Report. PIK, Potsdam. Observation year 2026. Opened: news listing (a secondary source for the UNEP report). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2026 (released 21 October 2026, after the evidence close). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2026. Not opened; its release is known only from a secondary news item [33] and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32POST-CLOSE, context only: WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 22 (27 October 2026, after the evidence close). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Nationally determined contributions synthesis report (2025). Bonn. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026 back
11Saunois, M. et al., Global Methane Budget 2000 to 2020, Earth System Science Data 17, 1873 to 1958, 2025. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025. Observation year 2020 (decade 2010 to 2019). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025 back
8IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, 2022. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, 2023. DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adh2458. Observation year 2023. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 back
19Findlay, H.S. et al., Ocean Acidification: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1111/gcb.70238 back
22Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z back
23Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited from memory; the abstract was not retrieved. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
1Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.24381/b3nm-p354 back
4WMO (ed.), Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026 to 2035, press release of 28 May 2026 (Met Office as lead centre). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (predictions for 2026 to 2030). Opened: press release; the full update was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30C3S and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (landing page). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Opened: landing page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target (November 2025). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. The issuer site refused automated access; figures were seen only in search summaries and are not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5POST-CLOSE, context only: Lan, X., Tans, P. and Thoning, K.W., Trends in globally averaged CO2, CH4 and N2O, annual mean data files (version of 9 October 2026). NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder. DOI 10.15138/9N0H-ZH07 (CO2). Observation year 2025. Opened: data files. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.15138/9N0H-ZH07 back
9NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (ed.), GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4), global land-ocean annual table. NASA, New York. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia (eds.), HadCRUT5 analysis, global annual summary series. Met Office, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12Crippa, M. et al., GHG emissions of all world countries 2025 (JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 40443). European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2024. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13POST-CLOSE, context only: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for September 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, October 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14POST-CLOSE, context only: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 8 October 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15POST-CLOSE, context only: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Sea Ice Today, analysis of 7 October 2026 (the 2026 Arctic season). University of Colorado Boulder. Observation year 2026. Opened: the Sea Ice Today front page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (ed.), 2026 Global Report on Internal Displacement. IDMC, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: report page; no global disaster displacement total was read. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries in 2013 to 2022. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2022. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21WHO (ed.), Climate change and health, fact sheet (12 October 2023). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Opened: fact sheet. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet 406, December 2025. Observation year 2024. Only the bibliographic record was read; the full text was not opened and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025, special report. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Climate 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 climate agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 climate edition.

5 min read0 figures6 tables3 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

C-01
How would a strong El Niño on a 1.5 °C background travel through rivers, harvests and health systems at once?
INI-GS07-ELN-01 · El Niño compound test; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.
C-02
Where do heat deaths and workplace heat risk coincide with weak health-sector early warning?
INI-GS07-HET-02 · heat and health; first output: exposure table by region.
C-03
Which river basins show repeated below-normal flow, and which systems depend on them?
INI-GS07-RIV-03 · river deficits; first output: basin dependence map.
C-04
How large is the gap between adaptation finance and adaptation need, by region?
INI-GS07-ADP-04 · adaptation finance; first output: flow and need register.
C-05
Which tipping elements have evidence of early warning signals, and where are observations thin?
INI-GS07-TIP-05 · tipping watch; first output: signal and gap table.
C-06
Which observing programmes are at risk of discontinuity?
To be admitted in 2027; first output: programme overlay.
C-07
How do attribution studies of events compare on method and basis?
To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.
C-08
Which climate capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only planned?
Climate capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 climate portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-GS07-ELN-01	El Niño compound test	Initiative	C-01	PROPOSED
INI-GS07-HET-02	Heat and health	Initiative	C-02	PROPOSED
INI-GS07-RIV-03	River deficits	Initiative	C-03	PROPOSED
INI-GS07-ADP-04	Adaptation finance	Initiative	C-04	PROPOSED
INI-GS07-TIP-05	Tipping watch	Initiative	C-05	PROPOSED
MSN-GS07-2027-01	El Niño compound test Universe mission	Mission	C-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

The climate edition reads national climate chapters, regional hazard and adaptation evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and national chapters are in preparation. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

01
National climate chapters
climate, hazard and adaptation chapter of each national edition
IN PREPARATION · national baselines
02
Regional hazard evidence
shared basins, coasts, monsoon and storm systems
PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions
03
Climate sector model
the global climate system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence
04
Global and strategic links
GLB · SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk · SR-12 Oceans, Arctic and Global Commons
PLANNED · strategic baselines
05
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027
06
Global Climate Report
this series
BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition
07
Evidence and correction
one graph, many projections
OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the climate candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the climate candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	2027 global annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-GS07-2027-01 · El Niño compound test Universe mission
Role spine: Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
CLI-001 · temperature	public record	reference for the 2027 series	PUBLIC
CLI-005 · carbon budget	INI-GS07-TIP-05	tipping watch	PUBLIC
WAT-007 · rivers	INI-GS07-RIV-03	river deficits	PUBLIC
HLT-008 · heat deaths	INI-GS07-HET-02	heat and health	PUBLIC
FOO-009 · hunger	INI-GS07-ELN-01	El Niño compound test	PUBLIC
FIN-010 · finance	INI-GS07-ADP-04	adaptation finance	PUBLIC
BIO-011 · tipping	regional consortia	tipping signal overlay	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-GS07-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the federation	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Surface air temperature bulletin	Copernicus Climate Change Service	monthly	CLI-002
Trends in greenhouse gases	NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory	monthly and annual	CLI-003
Greenhouse Gas Bulletin	World Meteorological Organization	annual	CLI-003
ENSO diagnostic discussion	NOAA Climate Prediction Center	monthly	CLI-002
Sea Ice Today	National Snow and Ice Data Center	monthly	CLI-006
Global Carbon Budget	Global Carbon Project	annual	CLI-005
State of Global Water Resources	World Meteorological Organization	annual	WAT-007

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
annual publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-GS07-001	August 2026 was 1.65 °C above pre-industrial⁴⁷	CORROBORATED	CLI	research question C-01
SIG-GS07-002	A strong El Niño is strengthening into early 2027⁴⁸	CORROBORATED	CLI · WAT · FOO	research question C-01
SIG-GS07-003	Antarctic sea ice at record daily lows from October 2026¹⁵	PARTIAL	CLI · BIO	initiative C-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

47Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15POST-CLOSE, context only: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Sea Ice Today, analysis of 7 October 2026 (the 2026 Arctic season). University of Colorado Boulder. Observation year 2026. Opened: the Sea Ice Today front page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Climate 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

7 min read0 figures5 tables13 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

8.1Climate and water

Climate sets the rainfall, the evaporation and the ice that feed rivers. The 2025 and 2026 records show a more erratic water cycle: long runs of below-normal river flow, falling land water storage and ice loss.

7years

of the fewest rivers with normal flow since 1991²⁴

4years

of glacier loss in every major glaciated region²⁴

8 of 10years

of largest glacier loss since 2016²

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
River flow	2025 was one of the driest years for river discharge in more than three decades	²⁴	Reported
Land water storage	storage on land has decreased over the past ten years	²⁴	Reported
Glaciers	mass loss among the five worst on record in the 2024 to 2025 hydrological year	²	Reported
Water-related disasters	Asia and Africa had at least half of events and over 80% of deaths in five years	²⁴	Reported

Couplings

CLI → WAT rainfall and flow
CLI → WAT ice and snow storage
WAT → FOO irrigation and crops

Evidence to bind in 2027

groundwater storage by region
basin-level dependence of other systems

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

8.2Climate and food

Food depends on rainfall, temperature and the timing of seasons. Hunger has eased for three years, but the projections leave out the effect of the strong El Niño now developing.

645million

people facing hunger, 2025²⁶

2.1billion

moderately or severely food insecure, 2025²⁶

56.6%

of Africa’s population moderately or severely food insecure²⁶

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Hunger	7.8% of the world faced hunger in 2025, down from 8.1% in 2024	²⁶	Reported
Food insecurity	25.8% moderately or severely food insecure; highest in Africa	²⁶	Reported
Projections	about 510 to 520 million facing hunger in 2030; El Niño effects not included	²⁶	Reported
Extreme weather	cascading effects on harvests, displacement and pests	³	Reported

Couplings

CLI → FOO rainfall and heat
WAT → FOO irrigation
FOO → HLT nutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

the share of hunger attributable to climate
harvest effects of the 2026 El Niño

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

8.3Climate and health

Heat, floods, storms and shifting disease ranges act on health directly and through food, water and livelihoods. The evidence is strongest for heat.

430,365deaths

modelled heat deaths, 854 European cities, 2000 to 2025²³

61,672deaths

heat-related deaths in Europe, summer 2022²²

1.2billion

workers face workplace heat risk each year²

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Heat deaths	just over half of the modelled burden attributed to human-induced warming; the share rose from 39% to 68%	²³	Reported
Vulnerability	3.6 billion people live in areas highly susceptible; death rates from extreme events 15 times higher in vulnerable regions	²¹⁸	Reported
Disease	dengue is the fastest-growing mosquito-borne disease, with record reported cases	²	Reported
Warning	only about half of countries gave heat warnings tailored to health in 2023	²	Reported

Couplings

CLI → HLT heat and disease
WAT → HLT floods and scarcity
FOO → HLT nutrition

Evidence to bind in 2027

global heat deaths on one basis
health-facility resilience to extremes

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

8.4Climate and nature

Nature sets thresholds that climate can cross. Reefs, ice sheets, forests and ocean chemistry show the clearest evidence. Nature is not reduced to a single number in this edition.

1.4°C

warming at which warm-water coral reefs cross a thermal tipping point¹⁶

6 of 9boundaries

planetary boundaries transgressed¹⁸

29%

of human CO2 absorbed by the ocean, 2015 to 2024²

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Coral reefs	crossing a thermal tipping point and experiencing unprecedented dieback	¹⁶	Reported
Ocean chemistry	average ocean conditions inside the uncertainty range of the acidification boundary by 2020	¹⁹	Reported
Planetary boundaries	six of nine transgressed in the 2023 update	¹⁸	Reported
Tipping thresholds	several may be triggered between 1.5 and below 2 °C	¹⁷	Reported

Couplings

CLI → BIO thresholds
BIO → CLI carbon sinks
ENE → BIO mining and land use

Evidence to bind in 2027

threshold ranges with confidence levels
ecosystem effects of the 2026 El Niño

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

8.5Climate, infrastructure and extremes

Extremes meet the built environment and public budgets. The 2025 events show losses that are large against national output, and warning systems that are not yet universal.

41%

of Jamaica’s GDP in physical damage from Hurricane Melissa³

>60USD billion

estimated losses from the Los Angeles fires, the largest for a wildfire³

43%

of small island developing States with early warning systems²⁵

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Hurricane Melissa	physical damage estimated at USD 8.8 billion, 41% of Jamaica’s GDP	³	Reported
Los Angeles fires	over USD 60 billion in estimated losses; more than 260,000 displaced	³	Reported
Flood events	1,037 flood-related deaths in Pakistan; 253 deaths in the Philippines from one typhoon	³	Reported
Early warning	119 countries report multi-hazard systems; 43% of small island developing States	²⁵	Reported

Couplings

CLI → INF storm, fire and flood damage
INF → FIN losses and budgets
CLI → FIN adaptation and protection finance

Evidence to bind in 2027

losses from extremes on one basis
infrastructure exposure to extremes by region

Related editions

GLB Global Systems
GS-01 Water
GS-02 Energy
GS-08 Disaster and Resilience
GS-11 Biodiversity and Ecosystems
SR-09 Planetary Boundaries and Earth-System Tipping Risk

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z back
21WHO (ed.), Climate change and health, fact sheet (12 October 2023). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Opened: fact sheet. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, 2023. DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adh2458. Observation year 2023. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 back
19Findlay, H.S. et al., Ocean Acidification: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1111/gcb.70238 back
17Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, 2022. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Climate 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

14 min read0 figures13 tables21 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Difference between the two 1.5 °C budgets, from 2026	170 − 130 GtCO2	40 GtCO2
(2)	Difference between the ERA5 and WMO estimates of 2025 warming	1.47 − 1.43 °C	0.04 °C
(3)	Difference between the August 2026 value and the 12-month mean to August, ERA5	1.65 − 1.48 °C	0.17 °C
(4)	Sum of the heat shares: ocean, land, ice and atmosphere	91 + 5 + 3 + 1	100%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season, in more than one region
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at global scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, Climate Sector Model v0

Model ID: MDL-GS07-CLIMATE · v0.1
Purpose: represent the global climate system and its couplings to water, food, health and biodiversity
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

5strong

documented within one season

8moderate

documented, buffered

7weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID: DC-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-B0
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: the 2027 climate annual cut

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the federation cut
Element	Baseline 2026	2027 global annual
Sources	cited global publications, pinned by edition	national, regional and sector cuts through one graph
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	Climate Sector Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to federation evidence
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Global temperature	2025	Jan 2026, updated 28 Jan 2026	annual	next summary in January 2027
Gas concentrations	2024	Oct 2025	annual	2025 values not bound at the close
Emissions and budget	2024, with 2025 projected	May 2026	annual	next Global Carbon Budget
Human-induced warming	2025	Jun 2026	annual	next indicators update
Ocean heat and sea level	2025	Mar 2026	annual	next State of the Global Climate
Current temperature	Aug 2026	Sep 2026	monthly	monthly
El Niño state	Sep 2026	Sep 2026	monthly	monthly
River discharge	2025	Sep 2026	annual	next water report
Hunger	2025	Jul 2026	annual	next SOFI
Climate finance	2023	Jun 2025	annual	next Global Landscape in 2026

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Temperature and gases	GOOD	regional detail
Emissions and budget	GOOD	method differences
Ocean and ice	GOOD	values for 2026
Water cycle	PARTIAL	groundwater and regional detail
Health	PARTIAL	global heat deaths on one basis
Food	PARTIAL	climate-attributed share of hunger
Finance	PARTIAL	adaptation flows after 2023
Resilience	THIN	tested capabilities beyond early warning

Table A.7Designed empty states: what is not bound, what would fill it and why
Field	Source that would fill it	Blocker
Global annual temperature for 2026	C3S annual summary and WMO State of the Global Climate for 2026¹²	the year was incomplete at evidence close; the January to August position is cited from the C3S bulletin⁴⁷
Ocean heat content and sea level for 2026	WMO State of the Global Climate for 2026²; annual indicators update⁷	not yet published; annual products appear in 2027
Emissions for 2026	Global Carbon Budget 2026⁶	not yet published; the 2025 value is a projection
Headline values of the UNEP Emissions Gap Report 2025 and 2026 from a primary document	UNEP Emissions Gap Report³⁴⁴⁶	the issuer site refused automated access; only a secondary news item was read³³
Effects of the 2026 El Niño on harvests, rivers and health	FAO, WMO and WHO reports after the event⁴⁸²⁶	the event is under way; SOFI projections omit it
Global heat deaths on one basis	peer-reviewed global heat mortality studies; Lancet Countdown³⁷	the Lancet report was not opened; European estimates are not global
Losses from 2025 and 2026 extremes on one basis	insurers, development banks and national agencies³³⁸	estimates use different definitions; the UNDRR report was not opened
Adaptation finance flows after 2023 and need by region	CPI 2026 landscape; UNEP Adaptation Gap Report²⁰³⁶	the 2026 landscape is not yet issued; the UNEP report was not opened
Public climate finance provided and mobilised, from a primary document	OECD climate finance report⁴⁰	the issuer site refused automated access
Carbon prices and coverage	World Bank carbon pricing report³⁹	the issuer site refused automated access; no figure used
National climate targets in the 2035 round	UNFCCC NDC synthesis report³⁵	the issuer site refused automated access; no figure used
Groundwater storage by region	WMO water report data tables²⁴; national agencies	the full report was not opened; only the key messages were read
Tipping element thresholds with confidence ranges	Global Tipping Points Report full report¹⁶	the full report PDF was not opened; only the key messages were read
Capability rungs beyond early warning	ministries, agencies and operators	not reviewed

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by the Copernicus Climate Change Service at ECMWF (published January 2026, updated 28 January 2026) from the ERA5 reanalysis. Annual. Role: binds CLI-001 and the sea-ice readings.

EVD-GS07-001

C3S Global Climate Highlights 2025¹

Compiled by the Global Carbon Project and published in a peer-reviewed data journal (May 2026). Annual. Role: binds ENE-004 and CLI-005. The 2025 values are preliminary.

EVD-GS07-002

Global Carbon Budget 2025⁶

Table A.8Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-GS07-001	EVD-GS07-002
Completeness	global coverage from 1940; five other datasets compared	all emission sources and sinks; land-use emissions remain uncertain
Timeliness	about 2 weeks after the year	about 5 months after the year
Revision	figures updated on 28 January 2026	living data update each year
Method transparency	data and methods published	methods and data published
External validation	compared with five other datasets	multiple independent approaches compared

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

WMO²: indicator data tables behind the annual report
Global Carbon Project⁶: regional emissions tables
NOAA⁵: monthly gas series
C3S⁴⁷: the monthly bulletin series for 2026

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.9Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.10The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.11Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	climate, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.12Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
C3S	Copernicus Climate Change Service
CO2	carbon dioxide
EDGAR	Emissions Database for Global Atmospheric Research
ENSO	El Niño-Southern Oscillation
ERA5	fifth-generation ECMWF reanalysis
GtCO2e	gigatonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent
NDC	nationally determined contribution
ppm	parts per million
SDG	Sustainable Development Goal
SOFI	The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World
WMO	World Meteorological Organization
ZJ	zettajoule

A.10Technical annex

Table A.13Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the global indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-GS07-ELN-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	2027
A.7	Regional hazard notes	cards for the major monsoon, storm, basin and coastal systems	WITH REGIONAL EDITIONS
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition: global surface temperature above the pre-industrial level

Construct: global mean near-surface air temperature relative to the 1850 to 1900 average
Unit: degrees Celsius
Method: reanalysis or merged observation datasets, offset to the 1850 to 1900 level
Source: C3S Global Climate Highlights 2025¹
Uncertainty: datasets differ by about 0.1 °C; WMO gives ±0.13 °C²
Known limits: a single year is not the long-term warming level; the pre-industrial offset is an estimate

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.24381/b3nm-p354 back
2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026 back
6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026 back
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target (November 2025). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. The issuer site refused automated access; figures were seen only in search summaries and are not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2026 (released 21 October 2026, after the evidence close). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2026. Not opened; its release is known only from a secondary news item [33] and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33POST-CLOSE, context only: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (ed.), Latest News listing, item of 21 October 2026 on the new UNEP Emissions Gap Report. PIK, Potsdam. Observation year 2026. Opened: news listing (a secondary source for the UNEP report). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet 406, December 2025. Observation year 2024. Only the bibliographic record was read; the full text was not opened and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025, special report. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries in 2013 to 2022. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2022. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Nationally determined contributions synthesis report (2025). Bonn. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5POST-CLOSE, context only: Lan, X., Tans, P. and Thoning, K.W., Trends in globally averaged CO2, CH4 and N2O, annual mean data files (version of 9 October 2026). NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder. DOI 10.15138/9N0H-ZH07 (CO2). Observation year 2025. Opened: data files. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.15138/9N0H-ZH07 back

Global Climate 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

10 min read0 figures8 tables17 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Global baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Global surface air temperature above pre-industrial, ERA5	1.47	°C	2025	Reported	¹
Global temperature, WMO consolidated estimate	1.43	°C	2025	Reported	²
Human-induced warming	1.37	°C	2025	Reported	⁷
Rate of human-induced warming	0.27	°C a decade	2016 to 2025	Reported	⁷
Carbon dioxide, WMO network	423.9	ppm	2024	Reported	³¹
Methane, WMO network	1,942	ppb	2024	Reported	³¹
Nitrous oxide, WMO network	338.0	ppb	2024	Reported	³¹
Fossil CO2 emissions	37.8	GtCO2	2024	Reported	⁶
All-gas emissions excluding land use, EDGAR	53.2	GtCO2e	2024	Reported	¹²
Remaining budget for 1.5 °C, Global Carbon Budget	170	GtCO2	from 2026	Reported	⁶
Remaining budget for 1.5 °C, indicators update	130	GtCO2	from 2026	Reported	⁷
Sea level above the 1993 start of the record	≈11	cm	2025	Reported	²
Excess heat stored in the ocean	>91	%	2025	Reported	²
People facing hunger	645	million	2025	Reported	²⁶
Climate finance	1.9	USD trillion	2023	Reported	²⁰
Adaptation finance	65	USD billion	2023	Reported	²⁰
Countries with multi-hazard early warning systems	119	countries	2025	Reported	²⁵
August 2026 above pre-industrial, ERA5	1.65	°C	2026	Reported	⁴⁷
Chance of a very strong El Niño, northern fall and winter 2026 to 2027	>90	%	2026	Scenario	⁴⁸

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3Global source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
C3S Global Climate Highlights 2025¹	operational climate service	global	2025	annual	temperature, sea ice
WMO State of the Global Climate 2025²	UN agency	global	2025	annual	indicators
WMO Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21³¹	UN agency	global	2024	annual	gas concentrations
Global Carbon Budget 2025⁶	research consortium	global	2024 to 2025	annual	emissions, budget
Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025⁷	research consortium	global	2025	annual	warming, forcing
GISTEMP and HadCRUT5⁹¹⁰	national climate centres	global	2025	monthly	temperature series
C3S monthly bulletin⁴⁷	operational climate service	global	2026	monthly	current state
NOAA ENSO discussion⁴⁸	national weather service	tropical Pacific	2026	monthly	El Niño outlook
WMO water resources report²⁴	UN agency	global	2025	annual	rivers
CPI climate finance landscape²⁰	think tank	global	2023	annual	finance flows

B.3Regional reading: climate across ten clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and ranks no region.

Table B.4Regional reading: climate across ten clusters
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
North America	wildfire and storm losses; heat in the south-west	cities, insurance, forests	Los Angeles fires over USD 60 billion³
South America	Amazon dieback risk; drought	forests, rivers, power	tipping risk¹⁶
Europe	warming about twice the global average; heat deaths	health, cities, rivers	C3S¹; heat deaths²³
Eurasia	Arctic warming; permafrost and fires	ice, infrastructure	regional statistics (not bound)
Middle East and North Africa	extreme heat; water scarcity	health, water	regional statistics (not bound)
Africa	hunger and displacement; drought and flood	food, health, households	hunger 309 million²⁶; water events²⁴
South Asia	monsoon floods; heat	crops, cities, health	Pakistan 1,037 flood deaths³
East Asia	extreme rainfall and flooding	cities, crops	northern China rainfall 160% above average³
ASEAN	typhoon and flood losses	cities, ports, farms	Philippines typhoon, 253 deaths³
Oceania-Pacific	reef stress; island exposure	reefs, coasts, islands	early warning in 43% of small island developing States²⁵

B.4Indicator card: the 1.5 °C level

temperature
Paris Agreement
overshoot
El Niño

Systems in view: water, food, health, nature, infrastructure
Defining events: first three-year mean above 1.5 °C, 2023 to 2025¹
Couplings: CLI → WAT drought and flood; CLI → HLT heat; CLI → BIO thresholds
Capability evidence: annual indicator updates and early warning reports⁷²⁵
Gaps: how the long-term level is defined and measured
Agenda items: C-01 · C-05

A year above 1.5 °C is not a breach of the long-term level; the level refers to warming sustained over about 20 years [4] [1].

LEVEL

Single years and long-term warming

C3S uses three methods and all give about 1.4 °C at the end of 2025 [1]; the indicators update gives 1.37 °C human-induced [7].

METHOD

Several ways to measure

C3S points to about 2029 on a 30-year trend, WMO gives a 75% chance that the 2026 to 2030 mean exceeds 1.5 °C [1] [4].

TIMING

Different crossing dates

B.5How countries appear in the climate edition

Countries enter the climate edition through the climate chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Table B.5How countries appear in the climate edition
Card field	What it shows	Source
WEFH+B state	each core system against peer distribution bands	national edition
Couplings	the national dependency matrix	national edition
Risk objects	the national risk portfolio	national edition
Capability rungs	the national capability ladder	national edition
Evidence age	oldest and newest source dates	national source register

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

26national

countries and unions

10regional

clusters

16global

flagship and sector

14strategic

systems reports

20frontier

technology reports

How to read a country card

Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

Table B.6National Baseline Editions in the 2026 programme
Wave	Countries and unions	State
W0	Canada	ISSUED
W1	United States, United Kingdom, France, Germany, Italy, Japan, European Union, Switzerland	PLANNED
W2	Mexico, Brazil, Argentina, Türkiye, Russian Federation, Saudi Arabia, United Arab Emirates, South Africa, Senegal, Kenya, African Union, India, China, Republic of Korea, Indonesia, Singapore, Australia	PLANNED

B.6Licences

Table B.7Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.8This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	19 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: DC-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.24381/b3nm-p354 back
2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026 back
31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026 back
12Crippa, M. et al., GHG emissions of all world countries 2025 (JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 40443). European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2024. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (ed.), GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4), global land-ocean annual table. NASA, New York. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia (eds.), HadCRUT5 analysis, global annual summary series. Met Office, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Global Climate 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.24381/b3nm-p354 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6
2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
4WMO (ed.), Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026 to 2035, press release of 28 May 2026 (Met Office as lead centre). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (predictions for 2026 to 2030). Opened: press release; the full update was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
5POST-CLOSE, context only: Lan, X., Tans, P. and Thoning, K.W., Trends in globally averaged CO2, CH4 and N2O, annual mean data files (version of 9 October 2026). NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder. DOI 10.15138/9N0H-ZH07 (CO2). Observation year 2025. Opened: data files. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.15138/9N0H-ZH07 Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
8IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
9NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (ed.), GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4), global land-ocean annual table. NASA, New York. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
10Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia (eds.), HadCRUT5 analysis, global annual summary series. Met Office, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
11Saunois, M. et al., Global Methane Budget 2000 to 2020, Earth System Science Data 17, 1873 to 1958, 2025. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025. Observation year 2020 (decade 2010 to 2019). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025 Cited in chapter 6
12Crippa, M. et al., GHG emissions of all world countries 2025 (JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 40443). European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2024. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
13POST-CLOSE, context only: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for September 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, October 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
14POST-CLOSE, context only: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 8 October 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
15POST-CLOSE, context only: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Sea Ice Today, analysis of 7 October 2026 (the 2026 Arctic season). University of Colorado Boulder. Observation year 2026. Opened: the Sea Ice Today front page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7
16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
17Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, 2022. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
18Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, 2023. DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adh2458. Observation year 2023. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
19Findlay, H.S. et al., Ocean Acidification: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1111/gcb.70238 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
20Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
21WHO (ed.), Climate change and health, fact sheet (12 October 2023). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Opened: fact sheet. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
22Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
23Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
25UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
27IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (standard page). International Sustainability Standards Board, London. Observation year 2024 (effective date). Opened: standard page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
28United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), Paris Agreement, Paris, 12 December 2015 (status page). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026 (status at access). Opened: status page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
29Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (ed.), 2026 Global Report on Internal Displacement. IDMC, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: report page; no global disaster displacement total was read. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
30C3S and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (landing page). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Opened: landing page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
32POST-CLOSE, context only: WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 22 (27 October 2026, after the evidence close). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33POST-CLOSE, context only: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (ed.), Latest News listing, item of 21 October 2026 on the new UNEP Emissions Gap Report. PIK, Potsdam. Observation year 2026. Opened: news listing (a secondary source for the UNEP report). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target (November 2025). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. The issuer site refused automated access; figures were seen only in search summaries and are not used. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Nationally determined contributions synthesis report (2025). Bonn. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet 406, December 2025. Observation year 2024. Only the bibliographic record was read; the full text was not opened and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025, special report. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries in 2013 to 2022. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2022. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO, ISO 14064-1:2018 Greenhouse gases, part 1: specification with guidance at the organisation level for quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. The issuer site refused automated access; the title was cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO, ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to climate change, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. The issuer site refused automated access; the title was cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union. Observation year 2021. The legal database page did not load; the number and title were cited from memory and should be checked against the Official Journal. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited from memory; the abstract was not retrieved. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC, decision 1/CMA.5, outcome of the first global stocktake (December 2023). Bonn. Observation year 2023. The issuer site refused automated access; cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
46UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2026 (released 21 October 2026, after the evidence close). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2026. Not opened; its release is known only from a secondary news item [33] and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
47Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7
48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Global Climate Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Global Sector Series GS-07
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the 2027 climate edition reports changes against this baseline	2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
GS-07	NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-SEC-GS-07-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Global Climate and Earth Systems; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Global Climate and Earth Systems, prefilled from this page

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
GS-07 edition Reports Global Climate 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-07 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Climate forcing

2.3Energy

2.4Water

2.5Health

2.6Food

2.7Finance

2.8Biodiversity

2.9Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

Global surface air temperature above pre-industrial (ERA5)

Global carbon dioxide concentration (WMO network)

Fossil CO2 emissions, with 2025 projected up about 1.0%

Share of excess heat stored in the ocean

Modelled heat deaths, 854 European cities, 2000 to 2025

Chance of a very strong El Niño in the northern fall and winter of 2026 to 2027

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Overshoot of 1.5 °C and rising extremes

River deficits and swings between drought and flood

Reef and forest tipping under warming and local stress

Protection and adaptation finance gap

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

6.2Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 climate readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled

Notes

7.1Questions for the operational series