Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Climate sets the terms for the other systems
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5A strong El Niño on a 1.5 °C background
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 48 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), ECMWF (ed.), Global Climate Highlights 2025 (published 14 January 2026, updated 28 January 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. DOI 10.24381/b3nm-p354. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.24381/b3nm-p354 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6
  2. 2WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025 (publication page and press release of 23 March 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  3. 3WMO (ed.), State of the Global Climate 2025, supplement on extreme events and impacts (May 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  4. 4WMO (ed.), Global Annual to Decadal Climate Update 2026 to 2035, press release of 28 May 2026 (Met Office as lead centre). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (predictions for 2026 to 2030). Opened: press release; the full update was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  5. 5POST-CLOSE, context only: Lan, X., Tans, P. and Thoning, K.W., Trends in globally averaged CO2, CH4 and N2O, annual mean data files (version of 9 October 2026). NOAA Global Monitoring Laboratory, Boulder. DOI 10.15138/9N0H-ZH07 (CO2). Observation year 2025. Opened: data files. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.15138/9N0H-ZH07 Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  6. 6Friedlingstein, P. et al., Global Carbon Budget 2025, Earth System Science Data 18, 3211 to 3288, 2026. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026. Observation year 2024 (2025 preliminary). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3211-2026 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  7. 7Forster, P.M. et al., Indicators of Global Climate Change 2025: annual update of key indicators of the state of the climate system and human influence, Earth System Science Data 18, 3889 to 3933, 2026. DOI 10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026. Observation year 2025. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-18-3889-2026 Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  8. 8IPCC (ed.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report (Sixth Assessment Report, longer report). Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, Geneva. Observation year 2011 to 2020 (warming) and 2019 (emissions). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  9. 9NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (ed.), GISS Surface Temperature Analysis (GISTEMP v4), global land-ocean annual table. NASA, New York. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  10. 10Met Office Hadley Centre and University of East Anglia (eds.), HadCRUT5 analysis, global annual summary series. Met Office, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: data table. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  11. 11Saunois, M. et al., Global Methane Budget 2000 to 2020, Earth System Science Data 17, 1873 to 1958, 2025. Global Carbon Project. DOI 10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025. Observation year 2020 (decade 2010 to 2019). Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.5194/essd-17-1873-2025 Cited in chapter 6
  12. 12Crippa, M. et al., GHG emissions of all world countries 2025 (JRC Science for Policy Report, EUR 40443). European Commission Joint Research Centre, Ispra. Observation year 2024. Opened in full (PDF). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  13. 13POST-CLOSE, context only: Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for September 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, October 2026). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  14. 14POST-CLOSE, context only: NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 8 October 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  15. 15POST-CLOSE, context only: National Snow and Ice Data Center (NSIDC), Sea Ice Today, analysis of 7 October 2026 (the 2026 Arctic season). University of Colorado Boulder. Observation year 2026. Opened: the Sea Ice Today front page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7
  16. 16Global Tipping Points Report 2025 (160 authors, University of Exeter), key messages. Global Tipping Points project, Exeter. Observation year 2025. Opened: project page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  17. 17Armstrong McKay, D.I. et al., Exceeding 1.5 °C global warming could trigger multiple climate tipping points, Science 377, 2022. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  18. 18Richardson, K. et al., Earth beyond six of nine planetary boundaries, Science Advances 9, 2023. DOI 10.1126/sciadv.adh2458. Observation year 2023. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1126/sciadv.adh2458 Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19Findlay, H.S. et al., Ocean Acidification: Another Planetary Boundary Crossed, Global Change Biology, June 2025. DOI 10.1111/gcb.70238. Observation year 2020. Opened: abstract through Crossref and Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1111/gcb.70238 Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20Naran, B. et al., Global Landscape of Climate Finance 2025 (23 June 2025). Climate Policy Initiative, London. Observation year 2023. Opened: publication page with the headline figures; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  21. 21WHO (ed.), Climate change and health, fact sheet (12 October 2023). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2023. Opened: fact sheet. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22Ballester, J. et al., Heat-related mortality in Europe during the summer of 2022, Nature Medicine 29, 2023. DOI 10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z. Observation year 2022. Opened: abstract through Europe PMC. Accessed 2026-11-03. doi:10.1038/s41591-023-02419-z Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23Barnes, G. et al., Heat-related urban mortality attributable to human-induced climate change in Europe from 2000 to 2025, Nature Health 4, 2026. Observation year 2025. Opened: abstract through PubMed and Europe PMC. A preprint version of the study reports different totals (463,730 deaths; 45% to 64%) and is not used. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24WMO (ed.), State of Global Water Resources 2025 (publication page, 17 September 2026). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page with key messages; the full report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25UNDRR and WMO (eds.), Global Status of Multi-Hazard Early Warning Systems 2025 (publication page and press release of 12 November 2025). Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: page and press release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026, joint news release of 21 July 2026 (as published by WHO). Rome. Observation year 2025. Opened: news release; the report was not opened. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (standard page). International Sustainability Standards Board, London. Observation year 2024 (effective date). Opened: standard page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  28. 28United Nations Treaty Collection (ed.), Paris Agreement, Paris, 12 December 2015 (status page). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2026 (status at access). Opened: status page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  29. 29Internal Displacement Monitoring Centre (ed.), 2026 Global Report on Internal Displacement. IDMC, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: report page; no global disaster displacement total was read. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30C3S and WMO (eds.), European State of the Climate 2025 (landing page). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2025. Opened: landing page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  31. 31WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 21 (16 October 2025). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Opened: publication page and bulletin summary with the headline values (CO2 423.9 ppm, CH4 1942 ppb, N2O 338.0 ppb). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
  32. 32POST-CLOSE, context only: WMO (ed.), Greenhouse Gas Bulletin No. 22 (27 October 2026, after the evidence close). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Opened: publication page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33POST-CLOSE, context only: Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research (ed.), Latest News listing, item of 21 October 2026 on the new UNEP Emissions Gap Report. PIK, Potsdam. Observation year 2026. Opened: news listing (a secondary source for the UNEP report). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2025: Off Target (November 2025). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2024. The issuer site refused automated access; figures were seen only in search summaries and are not used. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC secretariat (ed.), Nationally determined contributions synthesis report (2025). Bonn. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNEP (ed.), Adaptation Gap Report 2025. United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Romanello, M. et al., The 2025 report of the Lancet Countdown on health and climate change, The Lancet 406, December 2025. Observation year 2024. Only the bibliographic record was read; the full text was not opened and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025, special report. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), State and Trends of Carbon Pricing 2025. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Climate Finance Provided and Mobilised by Developed Countries in 2013 to 2022. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2022. The issuer site refused automated access; no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO, ISO 14064-1:2018 Greenhouse gases, part 1: specification with guidance at the organisation level for quantification and reporting of greenhouse gas emissions and removals. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. The issuer site refused automated access; the title was cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO, ISO 14090:2019 Adaptation to climate change, principles, requirements and guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2019. The issuer site refused automated access; the title was cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: European Union, Regulation (EU) 2021/1119 establishing the framework for achieving climate neutrality (European Climate Law). Official Journal of the European Union. Observation year 2021. The legal database page did not load; the number and title were cited from memory and should be checked against the Official Journal. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 2018. Observation year 2018. Cited from memory; the abstract was not retrieved. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNFCCC, decision 1/CMA.5, outcome of the first global stocktake (December 2023). Bonn. Observation year 2023. The issuer site refused automated access; cited from memory and should be checked. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: POST-CLOSE, context only: UNEP (ed.), Emissions Gap Report 2026 (released 21 October 2026, after the evidence close). United Nations Environment Programme, Nairobi. Observation year 2026. Not opened; its release is known only from a secondary news item [33] and no figure is taken from it. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47Copernicus Climate Change Service (C3S), Surface air temperature for August 2026 (monthly climate bulletin, September 2026; the page shows no publication date, placed in September 2026 from its file path). ECMWF, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Opened: bulletin page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 7
  48. 48NOAA Climate Prediction Center, ENSO diagnostic discussion of 10 September 2026. National Weather Service, College Park. Observation year 2026. Opened: discussion page. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Global Climate Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Global Sector Series GS-07
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 climate edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
GS-07NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-SEC-GS-07-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
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ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. GS-07 edition Reports Global Climate 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-07 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Global Climate Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Climate and Earth System. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-CLIMATE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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