Global Policy, Institutions and Governance Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Policy, Institutions and Governance.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the governance baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. V-Dem, Freedom House and International IDEA all report net decline in 2025, on different scales.¹²³

   How is democracy faring?Reported

2. Laws are spreading (141 states) but implementation tests found many mute refusals.⁵⁶

   Do transparency laws work?Reported

3. Women hold 27.2% of parliamentary seats and young members 19%.¹²⁵

   Who is represented?Reported

4. Interest bills reached USD 995 billion for developing countries, and aid fell 23.1%.⁹⁶

   Can governments pay for services?Reported

5. The perception index reached a new low average of 42; survey bribery medians sit near 17%.⁴⁶

   How corrupt is public life?Reported

6. Trust and low corruption were associated with lower infection rates in one study of 177 countries.²⁸

   Does governance affect health?Reported

7. Several instruments were adopted in 2024 and 2025 and depend on ratification thresholds.¹⁸¹⁹

   Are new rules in force?Reported

8. A debt squeeze that coincides with aid cuts and a health or food shock. SCN-GS14-DBT-01

   What will 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

In 2025 developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest on public debt, and 51 of them spent more on interest than on either education or health.

The interest bill is close to USD 1 trillion and is 8.1% of government revenue at the median. The issuer reports that 3.7 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on either education or health, 1.2 billion more than in 2010. Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean spend more per person on interest than on health or education⁹.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3International IDEA (ed.), The Global State of Democracy 2025: Democracy on the Move (publication summary page read, not the PDF). International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/1, The Pact for the Future, 22 September 2024 (PDF read; 56 actions). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 17United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/325, Terms of reference and modalities for the establishment and functioning of the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance, 26 August 2025 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SG.GEN.PARL.ZS, proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments, world aggregate (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; underlying data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 4Transparency International (ed.), Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 (results page read). Transparency International, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 28COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators, Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021, The Lancet 399(10334), 1489 to 1512, 2022 (open-access record and abstract read through Europe PMC; the full text was not read). Elsevier. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 7UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (PDF read as a mirrored copy of the agency document; data as of 1 May 2026). UN Refugee Agency, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is governance risk concentrated?
• Which couplings carry governance shocks into other systems?
• Which governance capabilities hold under compound stress?
• What must 2027 evidence measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Five coupling chapters
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The governance-centred matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems, read for their governance content. Strengths are Nexus estimates (ESTIMATED) from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the graph that 2027 evidence will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   FIN → GOV → HLT

   Interest costs and aid cuts squeeze health budgets while satisfaction with services stays flat.

   Inferred 2025 interest bill⁹; aid fall⁶; satisfaction series⁵

2. 02

   GOV → FOO

   Subsidy, price and trade governance shape the cost of food.

   Inferred 2.7 billion cannot afford a healthy diet¹⁴; appeal gap²⁴

3. 03

   GOV → ENE

   Subsidy design and access programmes steer energy use and access.

   Reported USD 921 billion of subsidies in 2024⁶

4. 04

   GOV → BIO

   Harmful incentives and weak enforcement press on nature and on those who defend it.

   Reported framework target on incentives²¹; defenders killed⁵

5. 05

   GOV → WAT

   Allocation rules and aid decide who is served.

   Reported aid to the water sector⁶

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 21Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, December 2022 (PDF read). Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 3International IDEA (ed.), The Global State of Democracy 2025: Democracy on the Move (publication summary page read, not the PDF). International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 16United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/1, The Pact for the Future, 22 September 2024 (PDF read; 56 actions). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 17United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/325, Terms of reference and modalities for the establishment and functioning of the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance, 26 August 2025 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 28COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators, Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021, The Lancet 399(10334), 1489 to 1512, 2022 (open-access record and abstract read through Europe PMC; the full text was not read). Elsevier. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 14FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026: Understanding and addressing the high cost of a healthy diet (landing page read; the full report was not opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 24World Trade Organization (ed.), Dispute settlement: Appellate Body (page read; the term of the last sitting member expired on 30 November 2020; notified appeals listed to 21 November 2025). WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

In 2025 developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest on public debt, and 51 of them spent more on interest than on either education or health.

Implication

The interest bill is close to USD 1 trillion and is 8.1% of government revenue at the median. The issuer reports that 3.7 billion people live in countries that spend more on interest than on either education or health, 1.2 billion more than in 2010. Africa and Latin America and the Caribbean spend more per person on interest than on health or education⁹.

What would move it

The next UNCTAD debt report, the final aid data for 2025 and the pace of borrowing-cost changes would each move this finding.

2.2Governance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-001

   V-Dem counts 92 autocracies and 87 democracies at the end of 2025, and 74% of the world’s population lives in autocracies against 7% in liberal democracies.¹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-002

   Three index families report net decline in 2025 on different scales: V-Dem lists 44 autocratizing countries, Freedom House records 54 deteriorating and 35 improving, and International IDEA finds more than half of the countries it assesses declined in at least one aspect over five years.¹²³

3. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-003

   141 UN Member States have statutory guarantees of access to information in 2026, up from 105 in 2015, yet an identical-request test in 76 countries found 38% of requests met no substantive reply and 42% full disclosure.⁵⁶

4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-004

   Women held 27.2% of seats in national parliaments in 2025 and 19.9% of Speaker posts, and members aged 40 and under held 19% of seats, unchanged since 2023.¹²⁵

5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-007

   Corruption is read two ways: the 2025 perception index reports a global average of 42, a new low, while survey data from 139 countries show a median 17% of people paid or were asked for a bribe.⁴⁶⁵

6. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-GOV-009

   The Pandemic Agreement enters into force on the thirtieth day after the sixtieth ratification and opens for signature only after its pathogen access annex is adopted; the Convention against Cybercrime needs forty ratifications.¹⁹¹⁸

2.3Finance

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

   Developing countries paid USD 995 billion in net interest on public debt in 2025, a median 8.1% of government revenue, and 51 of them spent more on interest than on either education or health.⁹

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

   Official development assistance from DAC members fell to USD 174.3 billion in 2025, down 23.1% and the largest annual fall on record, after a 6.1% fall in 2024.⁶³⁴

2.4Health

1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-HLT-008

   A study of 177 countries found that higher trust in government and lower corruption were associated with lower COVID-19 infection rates, while pandemic preparedness indices were not meaningfully associated with infection or fatality rates.²⁸

2.5Trade

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-TRD-010

   The WTO Appellate Body has been unable to review appeals since the term of its last sitting member expired on 30 November 2020, and appeals continue to be notified.²⁴

2.6Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-ENE-011

   Fossil fuel subsidies were USD 921 billion in 2024, down 10.2% from 2023 and from a peak of USD 1.66 trillion in 2022, but more than double the 2020 low of USD 402 billion.⁶²²

2.7Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a debt-service squeeze that coincides with aid cuts, thinner oversight and a health or food shock. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 3International IDEA (ed.), The Global State of Democracy 2025: Democracy on the Move (publication summary page read, not the PDF). International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SG.GEN.PARL.ZS, proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments, world aggregate (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; underlying data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 4Transparency International (ed.), Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 (results page read). Transparency International, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Preliminary Official Development Assistance Levels in 2025 (April 2026); the site refused automated access, and the 2025 total and fall are taken from the UN Secretary-General report [6], which was opened. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 28COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators, Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021, The Lancet 399(10334), 1489 to 1512, 2022 (open-access record and abstract read through Europe PMC; the full text was not read). Elsevier. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 24World Trade Organization (ed.), Dispute settlement: Appellate Body (page read; the term of the last sitting member expired on 30 November 2020; notified appeals listed to 21 November 2025). WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 22UNFCCC, decision 1/CMA.5, Outcome of the first global stocktake, FCCC/PA/CMA/2023/16/Add.1 (advance version of 15 March 2024; PDF read). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read through governance, in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries governance risk into each domain.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened for their dependence on governance, on the same grammar as every national edition. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026: Understanding and addressing the high cost of a healthy diet (landing page read; the full report was not opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 20World Health Assembly, International Health Regulations (2005) as amended, document A77/A/CONF./14, 1 June 2024 (PDF read). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 23UNFCCC (ed.), The Paris Agreement, status of ratification (page read: 194 Parties of the 198 Parties to the Convention). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 30United Nations General Assembly, resolution 69/283, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (PDF read; seven global targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 21Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, December 2022 (PDF read). Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 15WMO (ed.), Early Warnings for All initiative (programme page read; co-led with UNDRR). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 17United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/325, Terms of reference and modalities for the establishment and functioning of the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance, 26 August 2025 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS14-GOV-001

   Erosion of institutional checks and civic space

   Driver

   autocratization recorded by three index families¹²³

   Exposure

   41% of the world’s people live in autocratizing countries¹

   Vulnerability

   media censorship used in 32 autocratizing countries and civil society repression in 30¹

   Capacity

   independent human rights institutions in 89 countries; a 70% success rate for democratization episodes⁵¹

   Cascade

   GOV → HLT, FOO, WAT, BIO

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

2. ReportedEQL 4RSK-GS14-FIN-002

   Debt service crowding out public services

   Driver

   high borrowing costs and falling aid⁹⁶

   Exposure

   3.7 billion people in countries that spend more on interest than on health or education⁹

   Vulnerability

   low revenue base and limited fiscal space

   Capacity

   debt management reform; budget reliability improving, with expenditure deviation at 10.2% in 2024⁶

   Cascade

   FIN → GOV → HLT, FOO, ENE

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-GS14-GOV-003

   Gap between adopted rules and applied rules

   Driver

   new instruments that need ratification steps before they operate¹⁸¹⁹

   Exposure

   treaties and laws without funded implementation²⁵

   Vulnerability

   38% mute refusals in an information request test⁵

   Capacity

   oversight bodies reported by 101 of 123 respondents⁵

   Cascade

   GOV → all systems

   Horizon

   1 to 5 years

4. ReportedEQL 3RSK-GS14-TRD-004

   Weakened dispute settlement and multilateral financing

   Driver

   the Appellate Body vacancy since 2020 and a 27% fall in core contributions to the UN system²⁴⁶

   Exposure

   trade partners and UN-funded programmes

   Vulnerability

   dependence on a few large contributors

   Capacity

   the Pact commits States to work towards the necessary reform of the WTO¹⁶

   Cascade

   TRD → FOO, ENE

   Horizon

   1 to 10 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence for governance at the global level.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3International IDEA (ed.), The Global State of Democracy 2025: Democracy on the Move (publication summary page read, not the PDF). International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 25Global Data Barometer (ed.), Global Data Barometer, second edition, key findings (page read; no figure used). Global Data Barometer, international. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 24World Trade Organization (ed.), Dispute settlement: Appellate Body (page read; the term of the last sitting member expired on 30 November 2020; notified appeals listed to 21 November 2025). WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 16United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/1, The Pact for the Future, 22 September 2024 (PDF read; 56 actions). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 31United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (ed.), United Nations Convention against Corruption (text of 2003 read as published by UNODC, Vienna, 2004). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 2003. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 4Transparency International (ed.), Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 (results page read). Transparency International, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 15WMO (ed.), Early Warnings for All initiative (programme page read; co-led with UNDRR). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 20World Health Assembly, International Health Regulations (2005) as amended, document A77/A/CONF./14, 1 June 2024 (PDF read). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 7UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (PDF read as a mirrored copy of the agency document; data as of 1 May 2026). UN Refugee Agency, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 17United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/325, Terms of reference and modalities for the establishment and functioning of the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance, 26 August 2025 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 10UN DESA Division for Public Institutions and Digital Government (ed.), United Nations E-Government Survey 2024 (survey page read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 26Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and Mastruzzi, M., The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues, Policy Research Working Paper 5430 (PDF read). World Bank, Washington, September 2010. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-GS14-DBT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

high interest bills and lower aid coincide with a health emergency or food price shock in several importing, indebted countries

Analogues

2025 interest and aid data⁹⁶; 2020 to 2021 pandemic experience²⁸

Interventions

none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified run scheduled for 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   FIN → GOV

   interest bills rise and aid falls; discretionary budgets shrink

   2025

2. 2

   GOV → HLT

   health budgets absorb cuts as an emergency is declared under the amended regulations

   2024 · 2025

3. 3

   GOV → FOO

   price monitoring and safety nets are stretched by a food price shock

   2024 · 2025

4. 4

   GOV → ENE

   subsidy bills compete with service budgets; access gains slow

   2024

5. 5

   GOV → BIO

   enforcement of conservation and abstraction rules weakens; defenders are exposed

   2025

6. 6

   GOV → GOV

   access to information, civic space and oversight narrow, which delays correction

   2025

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-GS14-DBT-01 would travel through Global Policy, Institutions and Governance’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Global Policy, Institutions and Governance 2026, scenario SCN-GS14-DBT-01 (2026); Global Policy, Institutions and Governance 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 28COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators, Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021, The Lancet 399(10334), 1489 to 1512, 2022 (open-access record and abstract read through Europe PMC; the full text was not read). Elsevier. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for governance. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 governance readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers governance assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about how the world is governed and its couplings?

Sources searched

agency flagships; index publishers; peer-reviewed governance literature; treaty and resolution texts

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 16United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/1, The Pact for the Future, 22 September 2024 (PDF read; 56 actions). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 20World Health Assembly, International Health Regulations (2005) as amended, document A77/A/CONF./14, 1 June 2024 (PDF read). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 17United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/325, Terms of reference and modalities for the establishment and functioning of the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance, 26 August 2025 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 31United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (ed.), United Nations Convention against Corruption (text of 2003 read as published by UNODC, Vienna, 2004). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 2003. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 21Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, December 2022 (PDF read). Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 22UNFCCC, decision 1/CMA.5, Outcome of the first global stocktake, FCCC/PA/CMA/2023/16/Add.1 (advance version of 15 March 2024; PDF read). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 30United Nations General Assembly, resolution 69/283, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (PDF read; seven global targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law (CETS 225, 2024); the page refused automated access and no figure is used. Council of Europe, Strasbourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 12 July 2024; the Official Journal page refused automated access, and the publication date was read on a third-party site that links to it. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37000:2021, Governance of organisations: Guidance. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37001:2016, Anti-bribery management systems: Requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37301:2021, Compliance management systems: Requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO/IEC 42001:2023, Information technology: Artificial intelligence: Management system. ISO and IEC, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Recommendation of the Council on Public Integrity, 2017; the site refused automated access. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 24World Trade Organization (ed.), Dispute settlement: Appellate Body (page read; the term of the last sitting member expired on 30 November 2020; notified appeals listed to 21 November 2025). WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ostrom, E., A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems, Science, July 2009 (the bibliographic record was checked in Crossref; the article was not opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lührmann, A. and Lindberg, S.I., A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?, Democratization 26(7), 1095 to 1113, 2019 (the bibliographic record was checked in Crossref; the article was not opened). Taylor and Francis. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 28COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators, Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021, The Lancet 399(10334), 1489 to 1512, 2022 (open-access record and abstract read through Europe PMC; the full text was not read). Elsevier. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 26Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and Mastruzzi, M., The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues, Policy Research Working Paper 5430 (PDF read). World Bank, Washington, September 2010. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 27Anderljung, M. et al., Frontier AI Regulation: Managing Emerging Risks to Public Safety, arXiv preprint 2307.03718, July 2023 (abstract read through the arXiv interface; the full text was not opened). arXiv, Cornell University. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 3International IDEA (ed.), The Global State of Democracy 2025: Democracy on the Move (publication summary page read, not the PDF). International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 8OHCHR (ed.), Global Progress Report on Sustainable Development Goal 16: Indicators on Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies, 2025 edition (PDF opened; only the key-findings pages were used). Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 7UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (PDF read as a mirrored copy of the agency document; data as of 1 May 2026). UN Refugee Agency, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 10UN DESA Division for Public Institutions and Digital Government (ed.), United Nations E-Government Survey 2024 (survey page read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 4Transparency International (ed.), Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 (results page read). Transparency International, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 25Global Data Barometer (ed.), Global Data Barometer, second edition, key findings (page read; no figure used). Global Data Barometer, international. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SG.GEN.PARL.ZS, proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments, world aggregate (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; underlying data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS (tax revenue, % of GDP) and IT.NET.USER.ZS (individuals using the Internet), world aggregates (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; the Internet series was read and not used in a finding). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 11ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (statistics page read; the 2026 edition gives end-2026 estimates). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (estimate). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 14FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026: Understanding and addressing the high cost of a healthy diet (landing page read; the full report was not opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions, 2024 results; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Inter-Parliamentary Union (ed.), Women in Parliament 2025 (published March 2026); the site refused automated access, and the figures used come from the World Bank series [12] and the UN extended report [5]. IPU, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Preliminary Official Development Assistance Levels in 2025 (April 2026); the site refused automated access, and the 2025 total and fall are taken from the UN Secretary-General report [6], which was opened. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
41. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, 2026 editions; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
42. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Open Government Partnership (ed.), membership and action plan data; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. OGP, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
43. 23UNFCCC (ed.), The Paris Agreement, status of ratification (page read: 194 Parties of the 198 Parties to the Convention). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
44. 29United Nations General Assembly, resolution 70/1, Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, 25 September 2015 (PDF read; 17 goals and 169 targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
45. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
46. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters (Aarhus Convention), 1998; the PDF refused automated access. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva. Observation year 1998. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
47. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: ECLAC (ed.), Regional Agreement on Access to Information, Public Participation and Justice in Environmental Matters in Latin America and the Caribbean (Escazú Agreement), 2018; the repository refused automated access. United Nations ECLAC, Santiago. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. G-01

   How would a debt-service squeeze that coincides with aid cuts and a health or food shock travel through health, food and energy programmes at once?

   INI-GS14-DSQ-01 · debt squeeze and delivery; first output: concurrency analysis for six regions.

2. G-02

   Where does the gap between adopted rules and applied rules widen, and what closes it?

   INI-GS14-IMP-02 · implementation gap; first output: implementation register for ten instruments.

3. G-03

   How do access to information, civic space and oversight move together over time?

   INI-GS14-OVS-03 · oversight and civic space; first output: time series linking the cited indices.

4. G-04

   Which subsidies and incentives work against stated policy in energy, food and nature, and by how much?

   INI-GS14-SUB-04 · harmful incentives; first output: subsidy overlay.

5. G-05

   What explains the gap between public satisfaction with services and public spending?

   INI-GS14-SVC-05 · service delivery; first output: service-tier table.

6. G-06

   Which shared institutions lack a funded continuity arrangement?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: arrangement overlay.

7. G-07

   How does trust in government move with institutional performance?

   To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. G-08

   Which governance capabilities have been tested in real shocks, and which are only adopted?

   Governance capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 governance portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The governance edition reads national governance chapters, regional institutional evidence and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed; the Canada and global governance chapters are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

1. 01

   National governance chapters

   institutions chapter of each national edition

   DRAFTED · further national baselines

2. 02

   Regional institutional evidence

   shared courts, regional bodies and cross-border arrangements

   PLANNED · regional Baseline Editions

3. 03

   Governance sector model

   the global rule layer as a system of systems

   v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

4. 04

   Global and strategic links

   GLB · SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience · SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk

   PLANNED · strategic baselines

5. 05

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

6. 06

   Global Governance Report

   this series

   BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

7. 07

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the governance candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-GS14-2027-01 · Debt squeeze and delivery Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• annual publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Governance and water

Water is governed through allocation rules, utilities, shared-basin arrangements and aid. The evidence read here is strong on institutions and thin on volumes: implementation of integrated water resources management has improved since 2017, but too slowly for the 2030 ambition.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk

8.2Governance and energy

Energy is steered by prices, subsidies, access programmes and climate commitments. Subsidies fell in 2024 and remain high, and the 2023 stocktake decision asks Parties to phase out inefficient fossil fuel subsidies as soon as possible.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk

8.3Governance and food

Food systems are governed through price monitoring, trade rules, agricultural incentives and safety nets. Hunger and the cost of a healthy diet remain far above 2030 targets.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk

8.4Governance and health

Health security is governed by regulations, treaties and public trust. The Health Regulations were amended in 2024, the Pandemic Agreement was adopted in 2025, and one study associates trust and low corruption with lower infection rates.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk

8.5Governance and nature

Nature is governed through targets, incentives, finance and the protection of those who defend it. The global framework sets a 2030 target to reduce harmful incentives and a finance target from all sources.

Related editions

• GLB Global Systems
• GS-05 Finance and Economy
• GS-06 Development and Humanitarian
• GS-13 Cyber and Digital Systems
• SR-05 Sovereign, Fiscal and Financial Resilience
• SR-10 Digital Public Infrastructure and Systemic Cyber Risk

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ostrom, E., A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems, Science, July 2009 (the bibliographic record was checked in Crossref; the article was not opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 22UNFCCC, decision 1/CMA.5, Outcome of the first global stocktake, FCCC/PA/CMA/2023/16/Add.1 (advance version of 15 March 2024; PDF read). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 14FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026: Understanding and addressing the high cost of a healthy diet (landing page read; the full report was not opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 21Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, December 2022 (PDF read). Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 24World Trade Organization (ed.), Dispute settlement: Appellate Body (page read; the term of the last sitting member expired on 30 November 2020; notified appeals listed to 21 November 2025). WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 28COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators, Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021, The Lancet 399(10334), 1489 to 1512, 2022 (open-access record and abstract read through Europe PMC; the full text was not read). Elsevier. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 20World Health Assembly, International Health Regulations (2005) as amended, document A77/A/CONF./14, 1 June 2024 (PDF read). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters (Aarhus Convention), 1998; the PDF refused automated access. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva. Observation year 1998. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: ECLAC (ed.), Regional Agreement on Access to Information, Public Participation and Justice in Environmental Matters in Latin America and the Caribbean (Escazú Agreement), 2018; the repository refused automated access. United Nations ECLAC, Santiago. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The global baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card, Governance Sector Model v0

Model ID

MDL-GS14-POLICY · v0.1

Purpose

represent the global rule layer, its institutions and its couplings to water, energy, food, health and nature

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

global scale; not for asset-, site- or country-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The global baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

DC-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-B0

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

48 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

the 2027 governance annual cut

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 global edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in 2027

• UNESCO⁵: access to information survey results by country
• V-Dem¹: component indices by region
• UNCTAD⁹: debt service by country group
• WHO¹⁹: pathogen access annex text

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: access to information guarantees

Construct

number of countries that adopt and implement constitutional, statutory or policy guarantees for public access to information

Unit

number of countries

Method

annual survey of Member States and territories run by the custodian agency, with a scored legal framework

Source

SDG Extended Report 2026, indicator 16.10.2⁵

Uncertainty

respondent numbers grew from 43 in 2019 to 123 in 2025; scores are self-reported

Known limits

legal guarantees do not measure application; a separate request test found 38% mute refusals

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions, 2024 results; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Inter-Parliamentary Union (ed.), Women in Parliament 2025 (published March 2026); the site refused automated access, and the figures used come from the World Bank series [12] and the UN extended report [5]. IPU, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SG.GEN.PARL.ZS, proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments, world aggregate (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; underlying data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, 2026 editions; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law (CETS 225, 2024); the page refused automated access and no figure is used. Council of Europe, Strasbourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 12 July 2024; the Official Journal page refused automated access, and the publication date was read on a third-party site that links to it. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Open Government Partnership (ed.), membership and action plan data; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. OGP, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37000:2021, Governance of organisations: Guidance. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37001:2016, Anti-bribery management systems: Requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37301:2021, Compliance management systems: Requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO/IEC 42001:2023, Information technology: Artificial intelligence: Management system. ISO and IEC, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Global source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• GOV
• FIN
• HLT
• ENE
• FOO
• WAT
• BIO
• DAT
• AIC
• TRD

B.3Regional reading: governance across ten clusters

Map plates follow with the regional Baseline Editions, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form and scores no region.

B.4Instrument card: pandemic rules and the Health Regulations

• health
• treaty
• regulation
• cross-border

Systems in view

health, trade, travel, research

Defining events

amendments to the Health Regulations in June 2024 and adoption of the Pandemic Agreement on 20 May 2025²⁰¹⁹

Couplings

GOV → HLT emergency determination; BIO → HLT zoonotic risk; GOV → TRD travel and trade measures

Capability evidence

adopted texts with a defined pandemic emergency and a national authority²⁰

Gaps

ratification status; pathogen access annex position

Agenda items

G-02 · G-08

B.5How countries appear in the governance edition

Countries enter the governance edition through the institutions chapters of their own national editions, on one card grammar. They are read against peer distributions and thresholds, never ranked.

Editions in the 2026 Baseline programme

How to read a country card

• Each system is shown against the distribution of its peers, with thresholds where they exist
• Couplings and risk objects come from the country’s own national edition
• Capability rungs record evidence, not a judgement of institutions
• Evidence age is printed, so older national data are visible as such

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

DC-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-B0, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 4Transparency International (ed.), Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 (results page read). Transparency International, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SG.GEN.PARL.ZS, proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments, world aggregate (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; underlying data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 7UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (PDF read as a mirrored copy of the agency document; data as of 1 May 2026). UN Refugee Agency, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS (tax revenue, % of GDP) and IT.NET.USER.ZS (individuals using the Internet), world aggregates (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; the Internet series was read and not used in a finding). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 10UN DESA Division for Public Institutions and Digital Government (ed.), United Nations E-Government Survey 2024 (survey page read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 11ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (statistics page read; the 2026 edition gives end-2026 estimates). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (estimate). Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 14FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026: Understanding and addressing the high cost of a healthy diet (landing page read; the full report was not opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 3International IDEA (ed.), The Global State of Democracy 2025: Democracy on the Move (publication summary page read, not the PDF). International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 20World Health Assembly, International Health Regulations (2005) as amended, document A77/A/CONF./14, 1 June 2024 (PDF read). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
2. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
3. 3International IDEA (ed.), The Global State of Democracy 2025: Democracy on the Move (publication summary page read, not the PDF). International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
4. 4Transparency International (ed.), Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 (results page read). Transparency International, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
5. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
6. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
7. 7UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (PDF read as a mirrored copy of the agency document; data as of 1 May 2026). UN Refugee Agency, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6
8. 8OHCHR (ed.), Global Progress Report on Sustainable Development Goal 16: Indicators on Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies, 2025 edition (PDF opened; only the key-findings pages were used). Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
9. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
10. 10UN DESA Division for Public Institutions and Digital Government (ed.), United Nations E-Government Survey 2024 (survey page read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
11. 11ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (statistics page read; the 2026 edition gives end-2026 estimates). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (estimate). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
12. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SG.GEN.PARL.ZS, proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments, world aggregate (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; underlying data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
13. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS (tax revenue, % of GDP) and IT.NET.USER.ZS (individuals using the Internet), world aggregates (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; the Internet series was read and not used in a finding). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
14. 14FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026: Understanding and addressing the high cost of a healthy diet (landing page read; the full report was not opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15WMO (ed.), Early Warnings for All initiative (programme page read; co-led with UNDRR). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4
16. 16United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/1, The Pact for the Future, 22 September 2024 (PDF read; 56 actions). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
17. 17United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/325, Terms of reference and modalities for the establishment and functioning of the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance, 26 August 2025 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
18. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
19. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20World Health Assembly, International Health Regulations (2005) as amended, document A77/A/CONF./14, 1 June 2024 (PDF read). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
21. 21Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, December 2022 (PDF read). Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
22. 22UNFCCC, decision 1/CMA.5, Outcome of the first global stocktake, FCCC/PA/CMA/2023/16/Add.1 (advance version of 15 March 2024; PDF read). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
23. 23UNFCCC (ed.), The Paris Agreement, status of ratification (page read: 194 Parties of the 198 Parties to the Convention). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
24. 24World Trade Organization (ed.), Dispute settlement: Appellate Body (page read; the term of the last sitting member expired on 30 November 2020; notified appeals listed to 21 November 2025). WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
25. 25Global Data Barometer (ed.), Global Data Barometer, second edition, key findings (page read; no figure used). Global Data Barometer, international. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
26. 26Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and Mastruzzi, M., The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues, Policy Research Working Paper 5430 (PDF read). World Bank, Washington, September 2010. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
27. 27Anderljung, M. et al., Frontier AI Regulation: Managing Emerging Risks to Public Safety, arXiv preprint 2307.03718, July 2023 (abstract read through the arXiv interface; the full text was not opened). arXiv, Cornell University. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
28. 28COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators, Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021, The Lancet 399(10334), 1489 to 1512, 2022 (open-access record and abstract read through Europe PMC; the full text was not read). Elsevier. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
29. 29United Nations General Assembly, resolution 70/1, Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, 25 September 2015 (PDF read; 17 goals and 169 targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
30. 30United Nations General Assembly, resolution 69/283, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (PDF read; seven global targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
31. 31United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (ed.), United Nations Convention against Corruption (text of 2003 read as published by UNODC, Vienna, 2004). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 2003. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions, 2024 results; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Inter-Parliamentary Union (ed.), Women in Parliament 2025 (published March 2026); the site refused automated access, and the figures used come from the World Bank series [12] and the UN extended report [5]. IPU, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Preliminary Official Development Assistance Levels in 2025 (April 2026); the site refused automated access, and the 2025 total and fall are taken from the UN Secretary-General report [6], which was opened. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law (CETS 225, 2024); the page refused automated access and no figure is used. Council of Europe, Strasbourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, 2026 editions; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Open Government Partnership (ed.), membership and action plan data; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. OGP, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 12 July 2024; the Official Journal page refused automated access, and the publication date was read on a third-party site that links to it. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37000:2021, Governance of organisations: Guidance. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37001:2016, Anti-bribery management systems: Requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37301:2021, Compliance management systems: Requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO/IEC 42001:2023, Information technology: Artificial intelligence: Management system. ISO and IEC, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Recommendation of the Council on Public Integrity, 2017; the site refused automated access. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lührmann, A. and Lindberg, S.I., A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?, Democratization 26(7), 1095 to 1113, 2019 (the bibliographic record was checked in Crossref; the article was not opened). Taylor and Francis. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ostrom, E., A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems, Science, July 2009 (the bibliographic record was checked in Crossref; the article was not opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters (Aarhus Convention), 1998; the PDF refused automated access. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva. Observation year 1998. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: ECLAC (ed.), Regional Agreement on Access to Information, Public Participation and Justice in Environmental Matters in Latin America and the Caribbean (Escazú Agreement), 2018; the repository refused automated access. United Nations ECLAC, Santiago. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Colophon

Format

A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF

Typefaces

Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)

Design standard

Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII

Accessibility

tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure

Production

Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version