Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

14 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Governance is the layer that sets the rules for every other system
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Debt-service squeeze under aid cuts, thinner oversight and a health or food shock
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 48 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Nord, M., Altman, D., Fernandes, T., Good God, A. and Lindberg, S.I., Democracy Report 2026: Unraveling The Democratic Era? (March 2026; PDF read, based on the V-Dem dataset v16). V-Dem Institute, University of Gothenburg, Gothenburg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  2. 2Freedom House (ed.), Freedom in the World 2026: The Growing Shadow of Autocracy, press release of 19 March 2026 (the press release was read, not the report). Freedom House, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  3. 3International IDEA (ed.), The Global State of Democracy 2025: Democracy on the Move (publication summary page read, not the PDF). International Institute for Democracy and Electoral Assistance, Stockholm. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  4. 4Transparency International (ed.), Corruption Perceptions Index 2025 (results page read). Transparency International, Berlin. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  5. 5UN DESA Statistics Division (ed.), The Sustainable Development Goals Extended Report 2026, Goal 16 indicator storylines (inputs as of 30 April 2026; PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  6. 6United Nations Secretary-General, Progress towards the Sustainable Development Goals, A/81/93-E/2026/73, 8 June 2026 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024 to 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  7. 7UNHCR (ed.), Global Trends: Forced Displacement in 2025 (PDF read as a mirrored copy of the agency document; data as of 1 May 2026). UN Refugee Agency, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6
  8. 8OHCHR (ed.), Global Progress Report on Sustainable Development Goal 16: Indicators on Peaceful, Just and Inclusive Societies, 2025 edition (PDF opened; only the key-findings pages were used). Office of the United Nations High Commissioner for Human Rights, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  9. 9UNCTAD (ed.), A World of Debt 2026: Rising debt costs and stalling development (publication page with key statistics read; the full report was not opened). UN Trade and Development, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6
  10. 10UN DESA Division for Public Institutions and Digital Government (ed.), United Nations E-Government Survey 2024 (survey page read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  11. 11ITU (ed.), Measuring digital development: Facts and Figures 2026 (statistics page read; the 2026 edition gives end-2026 estimates). International Telecommunication Union, Geneva. Observation year 2026 (estimate). Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  12. 12DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, SG.GEN.PARL.ZS, proportion of seats held by women in national parliaments, world aggregate (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; underlying data from the Inter-Parliamentary Union). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
  13. 13DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators, GC.TAX.TOTL.GD.ZS (tax revenue, % of GDP) and IT.NET.USER.ZS (individuals using the Internet), world aggregates (API extract, series last updated 2026-10-08; the Internet series was read and not used in a finding). World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  14. 14FAO, IFAD, UNICEF, WFP and WHO (eds.), The State of Food Security and Nutrition in the World 2026: Understanding and addressing the high cost of a healthy diet (landing page read; the full report was not opened). FAO, Rome. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15WMO (ed.), Early Warnings for All initiative (programme page read; co-led with UNDRR). World Meteorological Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4
  16. 16United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/1, The Pact for the Future, 22 September 2024 (PDF read; 56 actions). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6
  17. 17United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/325, Terms of reference and modalities for the establishment and functioning of the Independent International Scientific Panel on Artificial Intelligence and the Global Dialogue on Artificial Intelligence Governance, 26 August 2025 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  18. 18United Nations General Assembly, resolution 79/243, United Nations Convention against Cybercrime, 24 December 2024 (PDF read). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  19. 19World Health Assembly, resolution WHA78.1, WHO Pandemic Agreement, 20 May 2025 (PDF read, including the annexed agreement). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20World Health Assembly, International Health Regulations (2005) as amended, document A77/A/CONF./14, 1 June 2024 (PDF read). World Health Organization, Geneva. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21Conference of the Parties to the Convention on Biological Diversity, decision 15/4, Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, December 2022 (PDF read). Secretariat of the Convention on Biological Diversity, Montreal. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22UNFCCC, decision 1/CMA.5, Outcome of the first global stocktake, FCCC/PA/CMA/2023/16/Add.1 (advance version of 15 March 2024; PDF read). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23UNFCCC (ed.), The Paris Agreement, status of ratification (page read: 194 Parties of the 198 Parties to the Convention). UNFCCC secretariat, Bonn. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  24. 24World Trade Organization (ed.), Dispute settlement: Appellate Body (page read; the term of the last sitting member expired on 30 November 2020; notified appeals listed to 21 November 2025). WTO, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25Global Data Barometer (ed.), Global Data Barometer, second edition, key findings (page read; no figure used). Global Data Barometer, international. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  26. 26Kaufmann, D., Kraay, A. and Mastruzzi, M., The Worldwide Governance Indicators: Methodology and Analytical Issues, Policy Research Working Paper 5430 (PDF read). World Bank, Washington, September 2010. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  27. 27Anderljung, M. et al., Frontier AI Regulation: Managing Emerging Risks to Public Safety, arXiv preprint 2307.03718, July 2023 (abstract read through the arXiv interface; the full text was not opened). arXiv, Cornell University. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  28. 28COVID-19 National Preparedness Collaborators, Pandemic preparedness and COVID-19: an exploratory analysis of infection and fatality rates, and contextual factors associated with preparedness in 177 countries, from Jan 1, 2020, to Sept 30, 2021, The Lancet 399(10334), 1489 to 1512, 2022 (open-access record and abstract read through Europe PMC; the full text was not read). Elsevier. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  29. 29United Nations General Assembly, resolution 70/1, Transforming our world: the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development, 25 September 2015 (PDF read; 17 goals and 169 targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  30. 30United Nations General Assembly, resolution 69/283, Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030 (PDF read; seven global targets). United Nations, New York. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  31. 31United Nations Office on Drugs and Crime (ed.), United Nations Convention against Corruption (text of 2003 read as published by UNODC, Vienna, 2004). United Nations, Vienna. Observation year 2003. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), OECD Survey on Drivers of Trust in Public Institutions, 2024 results; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Inter-Parliamentary Union (ed.), Women in Parliament 2025 (published March 2026); the site refused automated access, and the figures used come from the World Bank series [12] and the UN extended report [5]. IPU, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Preliminary Official Development Assistance Levels in 2025 (April 2026); the site refused automated access, and the 2025 total and fall are taken from the UN Secretary-General report [6], which was opened. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Council of Europe (ed.), Framework Convention on Artificial Intelligence and Human Rights, Democracy and the Rule of Law (CETS 225, 2024); the page refused automated access and no figure is used. Council of Europe, Strasbourg. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: IMF (ed.), Fiscal Monitor, 2026 editions; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. International Monetary Fund, Washington. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Open Government Partnership (ed.), membership and action plan data; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. OGP, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025; the site refused automated access and no figure is used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Regulation (EU) 2024/1689 laying down harmonised rules on artificial intelligence (Artificial Intelligence Act), Official Journal of the European Union, 12 July 2024; the Official Journal page refused automated access, and the publication date was read on a third-party site that links to it. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37000:2021, Governance of organisations: Guidance. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37001:2016, Anti-bribery management systems: Requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 37301:2021, Compliance management systems: Requirements with guidance for use. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva; cited from memory. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO/IEC 42001:2023, Information technology: Artificial intelligence: Management system. ISO and IEC, Geneva; the catalogue page refused automated access. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: OECD (ed.), Recommendation of the Council on Public Integrity, 2017; the site refused automated access. OECD, Paris. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Lührmann, A. and Lindberg, S.I., A third wave of autocratization is here: what is new about it?, Democratization 26(7), 1095 to 1113, 2019 (the bibliographic record was checked in Crossref; the article was not opened). Taylor and Francis. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ostrom, E., A General Framework for Analyzing Sustainability of Social-Ecological Systems, Science, July 2009 (the bibliographic record was checked in Crossref; the article was not opened). American Association for the Advancement of Science. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNECE (ed.), Convention on Access to Information, Public Participation in Decision-making and Access to Justice in Environmental Matters (Aarhus Convention), 1998; the PDF refused automated access. United Nations Economic Commission for Europe, Geneva. Observation year 1998. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: ECLAC (ed.), Regional Agreement on Access to Information, Public Participation and Justice in Environmental Matters in Latin America and the Caribbean (Escazú Agreement), 2018; the repository refused automated access. United Nations ECLAC, Santiago. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Global Policy, Institutions and Governance Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Global Sector Series GS-14
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 governance edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
GS-14NR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-SEC-GS-14-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. GS-14 edition Reports Global Policy, Institutions and Governance 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; GS-14 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Nexus Global Policy, Institutions and Governance Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of the World’s Policy, Institutions and Governance. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-SECTOR-POLICY-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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