Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Reports
Baseline Edition 2026
Complete edition

Mexico Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026

The State of Mexico’s Interdependent Systems

Choose A4 or Letter in the print dialog; running heads and page numbers are added in print. This is a review copy: the signed PDF with its DOI is issued at release.

ReportsMEX

Country Systems Risk and Resilience

Mexico 2026

The State of Mexico’s Interdependent Systems

Baseline Edition 2026NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINEGCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Imprint

Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor, the Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI)
Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto
Report number: NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE
Evidence close: 30 September 2026, cut NQ-MEX-2026-Q0-1
Status: Draft under stewardship review; not yet released
DOI and UNI: Issued at deposit
Licence: CC BY 4.0 for Nexus-authored text, tables and figures; third-party material keeps its own licence
Cite as: Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Mexico Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Mexico’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI). https://therisk.global/nexus-reports/editions/mex/

Contents

·
Executive summary
1
Chapter 1. Mexico’s risk runs through its borders, its basins and its coasts
2
Chapter 2. Key findings
3
Chapter 3. Systems and sectors at baseline
4
Chapter 4. Risks and capability
5
Chapter 5. Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
6
Chapter 6. Readings from the other desks
7
Chapter 7. The 2027 agenda
8
Chapter 8. Systems in depth
A
Annex A. Methodology
B
Annex B. Data appendix
C
Annex C. References and record

Mexico 2026
Executive summary

Executive summary

The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.

5 min read1 figure0 tables12 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

S.1Abstract

Mexico (México) enters 2027 with 130.9 million residents, a median age of 32 and a multidimensional poverty rate that fell to 29.6% in 2024¹². Its systems are tied to those of its northern neighbour. In 2024 the country imported 5,010 PJ of refined energy products and generated 64.2% of its electricity from dry gas⁴. The 2020–2025 cycle under the 1944 Water Treaty closed with 0.88 million acre-feet delivered against 1.75 owed⁶. Climate exposure is high and varied. Hurricane Otis struck Acapulco as a category 5 storm in 2023, with US$12–16 billion in damage⁷. Drought covered 76% of the territory at its 2024 peak¹⁴, and in 2025 water stress affected 64% of the continental area³. The updated climate contribution sets net emissions of 364–404 MtCO₂e for 2035³, while clean sources supplied 26% of electricity in 2025⁵. This Baseline Edition fixes the reference state for Mexico’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems, maps the couplings through which drought, storm, seismic and supply shocks travel, and sets the questions the first operational edition will answer with Foundry evidence in Q1 2027. It decides nothing and compares no one.

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the Mexico baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

The latest national total is not bound here. The 2035 range is 364–404 MtCO₂e net.³
Where do emissions stand?Reported
Otis in 2023 caused US$12–16 billion in damage, and the October 2025 rains left 72 dead.⁷¹⁷
How exposed is Mexico to storms?Reported
Dry gas supplied 64.2% of electricity, and 5,010 PJ of refined products were imported in 2024.⁴
How secure is energy supply?Reported
Mexico delivered 0.88 of 1.75 million acre-feet in the last cycle.⁶
How secure is the shared water?Reported
It affected 64% of the continental area in 2025.³
How widespread is water stress?Reported
It fell from 46.8 to 38.5 million people between 2022 and 2024.²
What did poverty do?Reported
The state holds US$420 million of parametric cover; cover for households is not bound here.⁸
Who carries disaster losses?Reported
A multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid. SCN-MEX-DRT-01
What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

The 2020–2025 Rio Grande cycle closed with 0.88 million acre-feet delivered against 1.75 owed. In February 2026 Mexico committed to annual deliveries of at least 0.35 million acre-feet and to a plan for the shortfall.

Figure S.1Rio Grande deliveries under the 1944 Water Treaty, 2020–2025 cycle (million acre-feet)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Owed over the cycle		1.75
Delivered by late October 2025		0.88

Source: IBWC accounts as reported in CRS⁶. The treaty sets a floor of 0.35 million acre-feet a year, measured in five-year cycles²⁰.

The shortfall links basin hydrology to trade and finance. A repeat would tie further to the USMCA joint review, which CRS notes some Members wish to connect to the treaty⁶²¹. Reservoir storage and drought, not only policy, set what can be delivered.

S.4At a glance

130.9million

residents, 2025¹

32years

median age, 2025¹

29.6%

multidimensional poverty, 2024²

75.7%

dwellings with internet, 2025¹

97.6%

dwellings with piped water, 2025¹

32entities

federal entities and 2,478 municipalities¹

S.5What each steward reads in it

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Mexico’s risk: water stress, gas dependence and coastal and seismic hazards act together on a country with a younger population than most peers.

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For many people risk arrives as a dry tap, a hot week or a storm.

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The state holds US$420 million of parametric cover, and the four sectors that emit 77% of greenhouse gases hold 32% of bank credit.

NEXUS

Synthesis

The evidence is solid on structure and thin on stocks and counts.

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

A baseline: the state of Mexico’s water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems in 2026, the dependencies that connect them, the risks that travel through them and the capabilities that hold them. It sets out the questions the operational series will answer.

What it is not

Not a national risk assessment, an official warning or a rating. It decides nothing about any institution or asset. Competent authorities keep every mandate they hold, and national ownership of the series is unaffected.

What comes next

Q1 2027 opens the operational series with a sealed Foundry evidence cut. Each later edition reports what changed against this baseline, new observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
14UnoTV and AFP (eds.), “Sequía retrocede a 7.4% tras máximo de 2024, el menor nivel en 6 años,” reporting the SMN drought monitor. UnoTV, Mexico City, 30 January 2026. Observation year: 2024 (peak), 2026 (January).back
3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
17Por Esto (ed.), “Suman 72 muertos y 48 desaparecidos por lluvias en cinco estados,” reporting a federal government statement. Por Esto, Mérida, 17 October 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
8World Bank (ed.), “World Bank Issues $420 Million in Catastrophe Bonds for Renewed Disaster Risk Protection for Mexico.” Press release, Washington DC, 17 April 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
20United States and Mexico, Treaty on Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande. Washington DC, 3 February 1944. Observation year: 1944 (text in force).back
21Government of Canada, Government of Mexico and Government of the United States, Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (USMCA). In force 1 July 2020. Observation year: 2020 (text in force).back

Mexico 2026
Chapter 1

Mexico’s risk runs through its borders, its basins and its coasts

Part I describes systems and their couplings. It assesses no authority and ranks no state.

7 min read2 figures2 tables13 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

Where is Mexico’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
Which couplings carry shocks from one system to the next?
Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

Narrative
Headline finding
Lead figure
Five system chapters
Twelve-domain reading
Sector screens
Dependency matrix
Risk objects
Capability ladder
Scenario
Three lenses
Portfolio

1.2The argument

Mexico is a large, young and increasingly urban country, with 130.9 million residents and a median age of 32¹. It is also a country whose systems are coupled to a neighbour. This baseline reads its exposure as three forces acting together: water that is scarce and shared, an energy system that leans on imported gas and fuels, and a coastline and highland exposed to storms and earthquakes.

The water layer shows the coupling most clearly. Water stress affected 64% of the continental area in 2025, where about 70% of the population lives³. Drought reached 76% of the territory at its 2024 peak and fell to 7.4% by early January 2026¹⁴. Overexploited aquifers numbered 114 in 2023, up from 102 in 2011¹³. On the border, the 2020–2025 treaty cycle closed with 0.88 of 1.75 million acre-feet delivered⁶.

The energy layer rests on gas and fuels. Primary energy production fell 27.9% between 2010 and 2024, imports of refined products reached 5,010 PJ, and dry gas supplied 64.2% of electricity⁴. Clean sources supplied 26% of electricity in 2025⁵. The NDC sets a clean-generation target of 38.5% for 2030 and 43.3% for 2035³.

The hazard layer is both coastal and seismic. Otis hit Acapulco as a category 5 storm in October 2023⁷, and rain in October 2025 left 72 dead and 48 missing in four states¹⁷. A magnitude 7.1 earthquake struck on 19 September 2017⁹, and parts of Mexico City sink by up to 50 cm a year¹¹.

The social layer sets who bears these shocks. Poverty fell to 29.6% in 2024, yet 34.2% of people lacked access to health services and 14.4% lacked access to nutritious food². Housing is better connected than a decade ago: 97.6% of dwellings have piped water and 75.7% have internet¹.

This edition therefore reads Mexico’s risk as a property of the couplings between these forces. The matrix, risk objects, capability ladder and scenario that follow ask the same two questions: where does a shock travel next, and who holds the capability to stop it?

Figure 1.1How is Mexico’s electricity generated? Share of generation by source, 2024 (%)

Dry gas supplied almost two thirds of generation in 2024. Wind and solar together supplied 12.5%⁴. In 2025 Ember puts solar and wind at 13% and fossil fuels at 74%⁵.

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Dry gas		64.2
Hydro		7.7
Wind		6.5
Solar		6
Coal		4.3
Nuclear		3.8

Source: as cited in the note to this figure. Year 2024.

Figure ID FIG-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-01-003

7,359PJ

primary energy production, 2024⁴

5,010PJ

refined products imported, 2024⁴

45.7%

of final use is transport⁴

2050net zero

goal in the NDC³

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The Mexico matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Figure 1.2Couplings between the five systems

Each line is one coupling from one system to another, drawn by the strength the edition assigns. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events.

Strong
Moderate
Weak

Source: this edition’s coupling matrix (Table 1.1); status Estimated.

Table 1.1Coupling matrix: from the row system to the column system
From, to	WAT	ENE	FOO	HLT	BIO
WAT Water	·	MODERATE hydropower · cooling	STRONG irrigation · rain-fed yield	MODERATE drinking water · sanitation	STRONG flows · wetlands
ENE Energy	STRONG pumping · treatment · desalination	·	STRONG fuel · irrigation pumping · cold chain	STRONG facility power · cooling	MODERATE land use · reservoirs
FOO Food	STRONG irrigation withdrawals	WEAK biofuel feedstock	·	STRONG nutrition · food safety	STRONG land conversion
HLT Health	WEAK workforce	WEAK workforce	MODERATE labour · disease	·	WEAK residues
BIO Biodiversity	STRONG regulation · recharge	MODERATE fire on lines · biomass	STRONG pollination · soils	MODERATE zoonoses · smoke	·
Strength: strong, moderate or weak; a Nexus estimate (status Estimated) from cited evidence and analogue events. The scale is defined in Annex A.

Transmission paths

01
CLI → WAT → FOO
Drought cuts irrigation and rain-fed yield; 2.83 million hectares of crops were lost to drought in 2018–2023.
Reported SIAP data in NDC³
02
TRD → ENE → all
Imported gas and fuels carry price and supply shocks into power, transport and industry.
Reported 2024 balance⁴
03
CLI → INF
A category 5 landfall and heavy rain cut roads, power and homes.
Reported Otis 2023⁷ · October 2025¹⁷
04
SEI → INF
An intraslab earthquake damages buildings in several states.
Reported 2017⁹¹⁰
05
WAT → TRD
Shortfalls in shared-river deliveries enter trade and tariff talks.
Reported 2025⁶

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Table 1.2Pairs of systems where both directions are rated strong
Loop	First direction	Second direction
WAT and FOO	Water to food: irrigation · rain-fed yield	Food to water: irrigation withdrawals
WAT and BIO	Water to biodiversity: flows · wetlands	Biodiversity to water: regulation · recharge
FOO and BIO	Food to biodiversity: land conversion	Biodiversity to food: pollination · soils
A causal-loop reading of the matrix (Sterman, Business Dynamics, 2000): structural, from estimated strengths, not a measured feedback.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
14UnoTV and AFP (eds.), “Sequía retrocede a 7.4% tras máximo de 2024, el menor nivel en 6 años,” reporting the SMN drought monitor. UnoTV, Mexico City, 30 January 2026. Observation year: 2024 (peak), 2026 (January).back
13Expansión Política (ed.), “Acuíferos sobreexplotados en México y gestión del agua subterránea,” reporting Conagua data. Expansión, Mexico City, 25 January 2026. Observation year: 2023.back
6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
17Por Esto (ed.), “Suman 72 muertos y 48 desaparecidos por lluvias en cinco estados,” reporting a federal government statement. Por Esto, Mérida, 17 October 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
9Servicio Sismológico Nacional (ed.), Reporte especial: Sismo del día 19 de septiembre de 2017, Puebla-Morelos (M 7.1). UNAM, Mexico City, 2017. Observation year: 2017.back
11E. Chaussard, E. Havazli, H. Fattahi, E. Cabral-Cano and D. Solano-Rojas, “Over a century of sinking in Mexico City: no hope for significant elevation and storage capacity recovery,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 126, no. 4, e2020JB020648, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (record from 1900).back
2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
10Secretaría de Gobernación (ed.), Declaratorias de Emergencia Extraordinaria y de Desastre Natural por el sismo de magnitud 7.1 del 19 de septiembre de 2017. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Mexico City, 27–28 September 2017. Observation year: 2017.back

Mexico 2026
Chapter 2

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the baseline. They are grouped by system, never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

5 min read1 figure0 tables18 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004

Figure 2.1Rio Grande deliveries under the 1944 Water Treaty, 2020–2025 cycle (million acre-feet)

Item	Bar, scaled to the largest value	Value
Owed over the cycle		1.75
Delivered by late October 2025		0.88

Source: IBWC accounts as reported in CRS⁶. The treaty sets a floor of 0.35 million acre-feet a year, measured in five-year cycles²⁰.

Implication

What would move it

Annual deliveries against the 0.35 million acre-foot floor, the plan for the 2020–2025 shortfall and the next drought monitor reports would each move this finding.

2.2Energy

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-ENE-001
In 2024 Mexico imported 5,010 PJ of refined energy products, and dry gas supplied 64.2% of electricity generation.⁴
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-ENE-002
Clean sources supplied 26% of Mexico’s electricity in 2025, with solar and wind at 13%; the NDC targets 38.5% clean generation in 2030.³⁵

2.3Climate forcing

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003
Mexico’s 2035 contribution sets net emissions of 364–404 MtCO₂e unconditionally and 332–363 conditionally; the 2030 limit is 644 MtCO₂e gross.³¹⁹
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-CLI-007
Hurricane Otis made landfall at Acapulco as a category 5 storm in October 2023; heavy rain in October 2025 left 72 dead and 48 missing in four states.⁷¹⁷

2.4Water

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-WAT-004
The 2020–2025 Rio Grande cycle closed with 0.88 million acre-feet delivered against 1.75 owed; Mexico committed in February 2026 to annual deliveries of at least 0.35.⁶²⁰
ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005
Water stress affected 64% of the continental area in 2025, and 114 aquifers were overexploited in 2023.³¹³

2.5SEI

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-SEI-006
Parts of Mexico City sink by up to 50 cm a year, and a magnitude 7.1 earthquake on 19 September 2017 triggered emergency declarations in 112 municipalities of Puebla.⁹¹⁰¹¹

2.6Food

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-FOO-008
A constitutional amendment of March 2025 bars planting genetically modified maize, and the United States suspended Mexican live-cattle imports from 11 May 2025 over screwworm.²²²³

2.7Health

ReportedEQL 5NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-HLT-009
In 2024, 14.4% of the population lacked access to nutritious food and 34.2% lacked access to health services.²

2.8Biodiversity

ReportedEQL 3NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-BIO-010
Of 232 federal protected areas, 94 had no management programme in 2026, and spending was 16.2 pesos per protected hectare.¹²

2.9Finance

ReportedEQL 4NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-FIN-011
The government holds US$420 million of World Bank parametric catastrophe bonds for earthquake and Atlantic storms, maturing in April 2028.⁸

2.10Systemic

Expert inputEQL 2NRF-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012
The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a multi-year drought that cuts irrigation and hydropower while heat lifts power demand on a gas-reliant grid. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
20United States and Mexico, Treaty on Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande. Washington DC, 3 February 1944. Observation year: 1944 (text in force).back
21Government of Canada, Government of Mexico and Government of the United States, Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (USMCA). In force 1 July 2020. Observation year: 2020 (text in force).back
4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Mexico: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 25 February 2026. Observation year: 2025–2026.back
7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
17Por Esto (ed.), “Suman 72 muertos y 48 desaparecidos por lluvias en cinco estados,” reporting a federal government statement. Por Esto, Mérida, 17 October 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
13Expansión Política (ed.), “Acuíferos sobreexplotados en México y gestión del agua subterránea,” reporting Conagua data. Expansión, Mexico City, 25 January 2026. Observation year: 2023.back
9Servicio Sismológico Nacional (ed.), Reporte especial: Sismo del día 19 de septiembre de 2017, Puebla-Morelos (M 7.1). UNAM, Mexico City, 2017. Observation year: 2017.back
10Secretaría de Gobernación (ed.), Declaratorias de Emergencia Extraordinaria y de Desastre Natural por el sismo de magnitud 7.1 del 19 de septiembre de 2017. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Mexico City, 27–28 September 2017. Observation year: 2017.back
11E. Chaussard, E. Havazli, H. Fattahi, E. Cabral-Cano and D. Solano-Rojas, “Over a century of sinking in Mexico City: no hope for significant elevation and storage capacity recovery,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 126, no. 4, e2020JB020648, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (record from 1900).back
22Seed World (ed.), “Mexico approves constitutional ban on planting genetically modified corn.” Seed World, 24 March 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
23El Imparcial (ed.), “Cierra EEUU nuevamente frontera con México por gusano en el ganado.” El Imparcial, 11 May 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
12Expansión Política (ed.), “Presupuesto 2027 pone en riesgo las áreas naturales protegidas,” reporting an analysis by NOSSA of official data. Expansión, Mexico City, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
8World Bank (ed.), “World Bank Issues $420 Million in Catastrophe Bonds for Renewed Disaster Risk Protection for Mexico.” Press release, Washington DC, 17 April 2024. Observation year: 2024.back

Mexico 2026
Chapter 3

Systems and sectors at baseline

5 min read0 figures2 tables16 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

WAT · Water

Rio Grande water delivered in the 2020–2025 cycle, against 1.75 owed

0.88million acre-feet

In February 2026 Mexico committed to at least 0.35 a year and a plan for the shortfall.

Reported2025IBWC via CRS⁶

ENE · Energy

Clean share of electricity generation

26%

Solar and wind supplied 13%; fossil fuels 74%.

Reported2025Ember⁵

FOO · Food

Maize imports, latest marketing year

Not boundUSDA · blocker: report not retrievable

The USDA attaché report would fill this tile. It could not be fetched at evidence close.

Not boundn/aUSDA⁴⁶

HLT · Health

Population with no access to health services (deprivation)

34.2%

About 44.5 million people; the figure was 39.1% in 2022.

Reported2024INEGI²

BIO · Biodiversity

Federal protected areas without a management programme

94of 232

Protected area totals 98 million hectares in 2026.

Reported2026Expansión¹²

SYS · Cross-system

Hurricane Otis total damage estimate

12–16US$ billion

Category 5 at landfall at Acapulco; 52 direct deaths and 32 missing in the latest update.

Reported2023NHC⁷

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The coupling column names the dependency that carries risk into other systems.

Table 3.1Each domain read in words, not scored
Domain	Posture at baseline	Coupling	Status
WAT	Water stress on 64% of the area; 114 overexploited aquifers; shared rivers with the United States.	WAT → FOO · WAT ↔ ENE	Reported EQL 4
ENE	Dry gas supplies 64.2% of electricity; 5,010 PJ of refined products imported; clean share 26%.	ENE ← TRD · ENE → all	Reported EQL 5
FOO	Constitutional ban on planting modified maize; livestock trade disrupted by screwworm; import volumes not bound.	FOO ← TRD, WAT	Reported EQL 3
HLT	Poverty at 29.6%; 34.2% without access to health services; heat season deaths recorded by state.	HLT ← CLI, SEI	Reported EQL 4
BIO	232 federal protected areas, 98 million hectares protected; 94 areas without a management programme.	BIO ↔ WAT, FOO	Reported EQL 3
CLI	Drought peak at 76% in 2024; Otis in 2023; warming of 3.2 °C a century stated by the government.	forcing on all systems	Reported EQL 4
INF	Valley of Mexico subsidence up to 50 cm a year; 2017 earthquake damage in several states.	INF → all	Inferred EQL 3
FIN	US$420 million of parametric cover; four sectors emitting 77% hold 32% of bank credit.	FIN ← SEI, CLI	Reported EQL 4
DAT	Digital dependencies of lifelines not mapped at public-safe resolution.	DAT → ENE, FIN	Expert input EQL 2
AIC	Data-centre and manufacturing load on power and water not bound.	AIC → ENE, WAT	Expert input EQL 2
MIN	Critical minerals and fuels: trade exposure not bound.	MIN ← TRD	Expert input EQL 2
TRD	Trade with one neighbour carries fuel, grain, cattle and water questions.	TRD → all	Inferred EQL 3

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen sectors are screened on the same grammar, so that later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Table 3.2Sectors: baseline evidence and the exposure to watch
Code	Sector	Baseline evidence	Exposure to watch	Evidence coverage
GS-00	Cross-system	compound drought, heat and gas stress	multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid	PARTIAL
GS-01	Water	stress on 64% of the area³	drought; aquifer overdraft; treaty deliveries	PARTIAL
GS-02	Energy	dry gas 64.2% of power⁴	import disruption; summer peaks	GOOD
GS-03	Food	maize rules and cattle trade²²²³	trade shocks; animal disease	THIN
GS-04	Health	deprivation at 34.2%²	heat; care access	PARTIAL
GS-05	Finance	sovereign parametric cover⁸	catastrophe fiscal cost	PARTIAL
GS-06	Development	poverty at 29.6%²	service gaps	GOOD
GS-07	Climate	drought peak 2024¹⁴	heat, drought, cyclones	GOOD
GS-08	Disaster	earthquake and cyclone exposure⁷⁹	compound events	PARTIAL
GS-09	Infrastructure	subsidence¹¹	water and transport networks	PARTIAL
GS-10	Cities	Valley of Mexico basin	water supply, subsidence, quakes	PARTIAL
GS-11	Biodiversity	98 million hectares protected¹²	funding and management gaps	PARTIAL
GS-12	Earth observation	SMN monitor in routine use¹⁵	continuity	GOOD
GS-13	Cyber and digital	dependencies not yet mapped	systemic outages	THIN
GS-14	Policy	NDC 3.0 and national plan³³²	coordination across levels	PARTIAL
GS-15	Science	peer-reviewed subsidence work¹¹	translation to regions	PARTIAL

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
46United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Mexico: Grain and Feed Annual. GAIN report, Washington DC, latest edition (not retrievable at evidence close). Observation year: not bound.back
2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
12Expansión Política (ed.), “Presupuesto 2027 pone en riesgo las áreas naturales protegidas,” reporting an analysis by NOSSA of official data. Expansión, Mexico City, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
22Seed World (ed.), “Mexico approves constitutional ban on planting genetically modified corn.” Seed World, 24 March 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
23El Imparcial (ed.), “Cierra EEUU nuevamente frontera con México por gusano en el ganado.” El Imparcial, 11 May 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
8World Bank (ed.), “World Bank Issues $420 Million in Catastrophe Bonds for Renewed Disaster Risk Protection for Mexico.” Press release, Washington DC, 17 April 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
14UnoTV and AFP (eds.), “Sequía retrocede a 7.4% tras máximo de 2024, el menor nivel en 6 años,” reporting the SMN drought monitor. UnoTV, Mexico City, 30 January 2026. Observation year: 2024 (peak), 2026 (January).back
9Servicio Sismológico Nacional (ed.), Reporte especial: Sismo del día 19 de septiembre de 2017, Puebla-Morelos (M 7.1). UNAM, Mexico City, 2017. Observation year: 2017.back
11E. Chaussard, E. Havazli, H. Fattahi, E. Cabral-Cano and D. Solano-Rojas, “Over a century of sinking in Mexico City: no hope for significant elevation and storage capacity recovery,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 126, no. 4, e2020JB020648, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (record from 1900).back
15Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México. Conagua, Mexico City, issued every two weeks since February 2014; page consulted 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
32Gobierno de México (ed.), Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2025–2030. Mexico City, 2025. Observation year: 2025.back

Mexico 2026
Chapter 4

Risks and capability

Four risk objects open the portfolio. Order carries no rank. Each is read across driver, exposure, vulnerability, capacity, cascade and consequence.

4 min read0 figures1 table11 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

ReportedEQL 4RSK-MEX-WAT-001
Drought, aquifer overdraft and shared-river shortfall
Driver
multi-year drought; overdraft; shared-river accounts
Exposure
64% of the area; about 70% of people³
Vulnerability
114 overexploited aquifers¹³; Valley of Mexico subsidence¹¹
Capacity
drought monitor in routine use¹⁵; storage series not bound
Cascade
WAT → FOO, ENE, HLT, TRD
Horizon
1–5 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-MEX-ENE-002
Gas and fuel supply disruption
Driver
cross-border supply shock or price spike
Exposure
power, transport, industry
Vulnerability
dry gas 64.2% of power; 5,010 PJ of products imported⁴
Capacity
storage depth not bound; clean share 26%⁵
Cascade
TRD → ENE → FOO, WAT, HLT
Horizon
1–5 years
ReportedEQL 4RSK-MEX-CLI-003
Tropical cyclones and river flooding
Driver
rapidly intensifying Pacific and Atlantic storms
Exposure
coastal cities; Gulf-slope valleys
Vulnerability
housing and roads on slopes and floodplains
Capacity
parametric cover US$420 million⁸
Cascade
CLI → INF → ENE, HLT, FIN
Horizon
annual
ReportedEQL 4RSK-MEX-SEI-004
Great earthquake and subsidence in the Valley of Mexico
Driver
intraslab or subduction earthquake; ground sinking
Exposure
Mexico City and central states
Vulnerability
older buildings; soft lake-bed soils
Capacity
seismological service in routine use⁹; alert capability not bound
Cascade
SEI → INF, WAT, HLT, FIN
Horizon
30 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Table 4.1Capabilities on the ladder of evidence: listed, exists, demonstrated, tested
Function	Level	Strongest public evidence at baseline
Prevention and mitigation	LISTED	NDC 3.0 sets mitigation targets and sector shares³
Monitoring and observation	EXISTS	drought monitor issued every two weeks since 2014¹⁵; seismological reports⁹
Early warning	NOT BOUND	source: national civil protection records · blocker: not reviewed by evidence close
Preparedness and planning	LISTED	national plans cited in the NDC³; drill records not bound
Redundancy and reserves	NOT BOUND	source: SENER and Conagua storage data · blocker: not retrieved
Response	EXISTS	Navy deployed about 3,300 personnel in October 2025 rains¹⁷
Continuity of critical services	NOT BOUND	source: grid and utility restoration records · blocker: not published in bound form
Recovery	LISTED	reconstruction task bank cited in the NDC³; durations not bound
Adaptation	LISTED	first national adaptation policy named as the next step in the NDC³
Social protection	EXISTS	41.4% of households received government programme income in 2025¹
Finance and insurance	EXISTS	US$420 million sovereign parametric cover to April 2028⁸
Institutional coordination	LISTED	water treaty minutes and a binational work group⁶
Technical infrastructure	LISTED	electricity expansion plan, 29,074 MW to 2030⁴
Workforce	NOT BOUND	source: INEGI and sector registers · blocker: not retrieved
Research capacity	LISTED	peer-reviewed subsidence record¹¹; research base not otherwise assessed
A capability listed in policy is not a tested one; each rung is the strongest public evidence at baseline.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
13Expansión Política (ed.), “Acuíferos sobreexplotados en México y gestión del agua subterránea,” reporting Conagua data. Expansión, Mexico City, 25 January 2026. Observation year: 2023.back
11E. Chaussard, E. Havazli, H. Fattahi, E. Cabral-Cano and D. Solano-Rojas, “Over a century of sinking in Mexico City: no hope for significant elevation and storage capacity recovery,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 126, no. 4, e2020JB020648, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (record from 1900).back
15Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México. Conagua, Mexico City, issued every two weeks since February 2014; page consulted 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
8World Bank (ed.), “World Bank Issues $420 Million in Catastrophe Bonds for Renewed Disaster Risk Protection for Mexico.” Press release, Washington DC, 17 April 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
9Servicio Sismológico Nacional (ed.), Reporte especial: Sismo del día 19 de septiembre de 2017, Puebla-Morelos (M 7.1). UNAM, Mexico City, 2017. Observation year: 2017.back
17Por Esto (ed.), “Suman 72 muertos y 48 desaparecidos por lluvias en cinco estados,” reporting a federal government statement. Por Esto, Mérida, 17 October 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back

Mexico 2026
Chapter 5

Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables5 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline: the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers: two or more consecutive seasons of drought across northern and central basins, with a hot summer and peak power demand
Analogues: the 2024 drought peak¹⁴; the 2020–2025 treaty cycle⁶
Interventions: none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state: narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1
CLI → WAT
drought lowers storage and river flows
2024 peak¹⁴
2
WAT → FOO
irrigation and rain-fed yields fall; crop loss rises
2018–2023³
3
WAT → ENE
hydropower falls and cooling water is constrained
to be bound
4
CLI → ENE
heat raises power demand on a gas-reliant grid
2024 balance⁴
5
WAT → TRD
shared-river shortfalls enter trade negotiation
2025⁶
6
HLT → population
water and heat stress fall on the 34.2% without health access
2024²

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01 would travel through Mexico’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Climate to water	Drought lowers storage and river flows. Analogue or source: 2024 peak [14].	Edition MEX, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01, step 1
02 Water to food	Irrigation and rain-fed yields fall; crop loss rises. Analogue or source: 2018–2023 [3].	Edition MEX, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01, step 2
03 Water to energy	Hydropower falls and cooling water is constrained. Analogue or source: to be bound.	Edition MEX, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01, step 3
04 Climate to energy	Heat raises power demand on a gas-reliant grid. Analogue or source: 2024 balance [4].	Edition MEX, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01, step 4
05 Water to trade	Shared-river shortfalls enter trade negotiation. Analogue or source: 2025 [6].	Edition MEX, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01, step 5
06 Health to population	Water and heat stress fall on the 34.2% without health access. Analogue or source: 2024 [2].	Edition MEX, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Mexico 2026, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01 (2026); Mexico 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

14UnoTV and AFP (eds.), “Sequía retrocede a 7.4% tras máximo de 2024, el menor nivel en 6 años,” reporting the SMN drought monitor. UnoTV, Mexico City, 30 January 2026. Observation year: 2024 (peak), 2026 (January).back
6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back

Mexico 2026
Chapter 6

Readings from the other desks

The baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.

13 min read0 figures8 tables33 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

Desk	Edition	State
GCRI Systems Evidence	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRF Public Deliberation	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
GRA Capital Readiness	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle
Standards Progress	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Academy Capability	Outside this desk’s remit	Not in remit
Index Measurement	No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle	Not in this cycle

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

GCRI · KEY T

Technical Truth

The evidence supports a coupled reading of Mexico’s risk: water stress, gas dependence and coastal and seismic hazards act together on a country with a younger population than most peers. Evidence is strongest for energy balances, poverty and treaty accounts, and weakest for heat mortality, food trade volumes and storage series.

ENE-001 · WAT-004 · WAT-005 · SYS-012

GRF · KEY M

Public Meaning

For many people risk arrives as a dry tap, a hot week or a storm. The baseline asks that public debate weigh how poverty and limited health access change who can cope, and how shared rivers shape local supply.

HLT-009 · WAT-005 · CLI-007

GRA · KEY F

Capital Meaning

Readiness implications only. The state holds US$420 million of parametric cover, and the four sectors that emit 77% of greenhouse gases hold 32% of bank credit⁴⁸. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an endorsement.

FIN-011 · ENE-002

NEXUS

Synthesis

The evidence is solid on structure and thin on stocks and counts. The 2027 programme should map the drought-to-grid pathway, bind storage and heat-mortality series, and measure gas and maize import exposure.

SYS-012 · A-01 · A-02

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for Mexico. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

Table 6.1The quarterly rhythm every edition follows
Quarter	Edition	Question	Boundary
Q1	State and Agenda	What matters this year, and what is the starting position?	observed baseline stays distinct from planned work
Q2	Evidence and Build	What new evidence and capability have been developed?	a configured capability is not a validated result
Q3	Stress Test and Readiness	What do scenarios and tests reveal?	simulated loss or performance is not observed impact
Q4	Annual Synthesis and Renewal	What did the year establish, and what changes next?	release follows review, not event publicity deadlines

Table 6.2Who contributes what each quarter
Steward or body	Role	Contribution route
GCRI Canada	Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T)	science and practice communities · GCRI gateway
The Global Risks Forum (GRF)	leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M)	policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway
The Global Risks Alliance (GRA)	finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F)	finance and insurance · GRA gateway
Nexus Standards	preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods	Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI
Risk Academy	learning pathways tied to the agenda questions	Academy gateway · learning by review
Mexico	national pathway: Desk, Leadership Council, Consortium, Working Groups	national Commons room

Standards drafts used in this edition

Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech

Standards calendar to watch

Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

Mexico’s water risk is set by drought at home and by accounts kept with a neighbour. The baseline treats the treaty shortfall as a coupling problem between basin, farm and trade, not as a dispute to be judged.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

Water is a shared risk

Clean power is growing, yet dry gas supplied almost two thirds of generation in 2024. Energy security here is a cross-border supply question as much as a domestic one.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

Gas is the hidden hinge

Otis, the October 2025 rains and the 2017 earthquake each showed where roads, power and homes fail first. A baseline can fix what is known and say what is not counted.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

Storms and earthquakes are repeated tests

Several figures that matter most, such as heat deaths, storage and import volumes, were not bound at evidence close. Better records are part of resilience.

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

Counting is a capability

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

The registers that open the first operational quarter. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Table 6.3Q1 2027 readiness pack
Item	Register	State at baseline	First Q1 2027 entry
E1	National risk state delta	baseline set by this edition	changes against the baseline
E2	WEFH+B state delta	five system readings set	indicator updates and freshness
E3	Agenda and Portfolio movement	eight agenda items · 7 proposed objects	admission decisions
E4	NWG delivery register	no groups yet	first monthly outputs
E5	NNC capability register	membership opens in Q1 2027	first contributions
E6	NLC questions and challenges	none yet	first challenge log
E7	Foundry technical state	environment prepared	first sealed cut
E8	Publication candidates	twelve findings carried forward	PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions
E9	Universe readiness	one candidate mission	admission and role spine
E10	Correction register	none	first correction cycle

Publication dispositions

Publish
Hold
Needs evidence
Restricted
Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

IN FORCE
ADOPTED
SUBMITTED
UNDER REVIEW
PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

Table 6.4Standards and regulatory watch
Instrument	Body	Scope	Status	Relevance
Paris Agreement · NDC 3.0, 364–404 MtCO₂e net in 2035³²⁹	UNFCCC · Mexico	national	SUBMITTED 2025	emissions pathway
General Law on Climate Change³³	Government of Mexico	national	IN FORCE · AS AMENDED	climate framework
Treaty on the Colorado, Tijuana and Rio Grande waters, 1944²⁰	Mexico · United States	binational	IN FORCE · MINUTE 333 (2025)	shared water
USMCA²¹	Mexico · Canada · United States	trade	IN FORCE · JOINT REVIEW	trade and inputs
National Water Law³⁴	Government of Mexico	national	IN FORCE · AS AMENDED	water allocation
Electricity Sector Law, 2025³⁵	Government of Mexico	national	IN FORCE	power planning
Constitutional amendment on native maize, 2025²²	Government of Mexico	national	IN FORCE	planting of modified maize
Kunming-Montreal Framework²⁸	CBD	international	ADOPTED 2022	30by30

Changed since 2024

Mexico submitted its 2035 contribution in November 2025³
Minute 333 of the boundary commission was agreed on 15 December 2025⁶
A constitutional amendment on native maize was published in March 2025²²

To watch in 2027

The USMCA joint review²¹
Annual Rio Grande deliveries of at least 0.35 million acre-feet⁶
The first national adaptation policy named in the NDC³

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, national and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question: What does the published evidence establish about Mexico’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks?
Sources searched: peer-reviewed literature; national and international assessments; official releases; industry loss data
Window: releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
Selection: sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
Next step: systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Table 6.5Science and assessments
Reference	Type	Year	Role	Used for
Lee and Romero (eds.)²⁵	assessment	2023	context	forcing
McElwee et al. (eds.)²⁶	assessment	2024	framework	nexus interlinkages
Zscheischler et al.²⁴	journal article	2018	framework	compound events
Chaussard et al.¹¹	journal article	2021	supports	subsidence
FAO forest assessment³⁹	assessment	2025	gap	forest area not bound

Table 6.6Institutional reports
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
NDC 3.0³	Government of Mexico	2025	supports	mitigation and adaptation
Sixth National Communication⁴⁵	SEMARNAT · INECC	2018	context	national circumstances
National Development Plan³²	Government of Mexico	2025	context	policy
Country Climate and Development Report⁴²	World Bank	2023	context	climate and growth
Global Assessment Report⁴¹	UNDRR	2025	context	disaster risk finance

Table 6.7Official statistics and national sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Intercensal Survey¹	INEGI	2025	supports	population, housing
Multidimensional poverty²	INEGI	2024	supports	deprivation
Financial stability box⁴	Banxico	2024	supports	energy balance
Drought monitor¹⁵	SMN · Conagua	2026	supports	drought
Greenhouse-gas inventory³⁶	INECC	2024	gap	latest total not bound

Table 6.8Industry, loss data and international sources
Reference	Issuer	Year	Role	Used for
Delivery accounts⁶	CRS	2026	supports	treaty
Catastrophe bonds⁸	World Bank	2024	supports	protection
Hurricane report⁷	NHC	2023	supports	losses
Electricity profile⁵	Ember	2025	supports	power mix
World Energy Outlook⁴⁰	IEA	2025	context	global demand

Where the evidence agrees

Mexico is warming and drought and heavy rain are intensifying³²⁵
Parts of Mexico City continue to sink¹¹
Shared-river accounts depend on hydrology as well as policy⁶
Regional warming and water stress are rising across Latin America⁴³⁴⁴
Disaster risk is reduced through shared frameworks and finance²⁷

Where it is unsettled

How fast clean power can displace imported gas³⁵
How much heat mortality is recorded at national level¹⁶
How to compare drought-area measures across years¹⁴

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
8World Bank (ed.), “World Bank Issues $420 Million in Catastrophe Bonds for Renewed Disaster Risk Protection for Mexico.” Press release, Washington DC, 17 April 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
29UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year: 2015.back
33Congreso de la Unión (ed.), Ley General de Cambio Climático, as amended. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Mexico City, 6 June 2012 and later reforms. Observation year: 2012 (text in force).back
20United States and Mexico, Treaty on Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande. Washington DC, 3 February 1944. Observation year: 1944 (text in force).back
21Government of Canada, Government of Mexico and Government of the United States, Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (USMCA). In force 1 July 2020. Observation year: 2020 (text in force).back
34Congreso de la Unión (ed.), Ley de Aguas Nacionales, as amended. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Mexico City, 1 December 1992 and later reforms. Observation year: 1992 (text in force).back
35Congreso de la Unión (ed.), Ley del Sector Eléctrico, in force from the March 2025 energy reform package. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Mexico City, March 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
22Seed World (ed.), “Mexico approves constitutional ban on planting genetically modified corn.” Seed World, 24 March 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
28Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year: 2022.back
6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
25H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year: 2023.back
26P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
24J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year: 2018.back
11E. Chaussard, E. Havazli, H. Fattahi, E. Cabral-Cano and D. Solano-Rojas, “Over a century of sinking in Mexico City: no hope for significant elevation and storage capacity recovery,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 126, no. 4, e2020JB020648, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (record from 1900).back
39Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025 (Mexico country report not opened at evidence close). Observation year: 2025 (not bound).back
45Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales and INECC (eds.), Sexta Comunicación Nacional y Segundo Informe Bienal de Actualización ante la CMNUCC. Mexico City, 2018. Observation year: 2018.back
32Gobierno de México (ed.), Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2025–2030. Mexico City, 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
42World Bank Group (ed.), Mexico Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank, Washington DC, 2023. Observation year: 2023.back
41UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
15Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México. Conagua, Mexico City, issued every two weeks since February 2014; page consulted 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
36Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Informe del Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Gases y Compuestos de Efecto Invernadero 1990–2022. INECC, Mexico City, 2024. Observation year: 2022 (total not bound in this edition).back
7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
40International Energy Agency (ed.), World Energy Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Observation year: 2024–2025.back
43World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
44UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: Water for Prosperity and Peace. UNESCO, Paris, 2024. Observation year: 2023–2024.back
27UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year: 2015.back
16El Imparcial (ed.), “¿Cuándo termina la ola de calor del 2024? 285 muertos por altas temperaturas: Secretaría de Salud.” El Imparcial, 28 August 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
14UnoTV and AFP (eds.), “Sequía retrocede a 7.4% tras máximo de 2024, el menor nivel en 6 años,” reporting the SMN drought monitor. UnoTV, Mexico City, 30 January 2026. Observation year: 2024 (peak), 2026 (January).back

Mexico 2026
Chapter 7

The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 National Agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due at the Q1 2027 cut.

5 min read0 figures6 tables4 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

7.1Questions for the operational series

A-01
How would a multi-year drought cut irrigation, hydropower and city supply together, and how does heat load on the grid change the outcome?
INI-MEX-WAT-01 · drought and grid compound; first output: dependency graph for two basins.
A-02
How deep are gas and fuel stocks and import routes against a prolonged cross-border supply disruption?
INI-MEX-ENE-02 · import resilience; first output: stock-and-route register.
A-03
How do maize, feed and livestock trade depend on a single trading partner?
INI-MEX-FOO-03 · food trade exposure; first output: commodity dependence table.
A-04
How many deaths and hospital cases does a heat season cause, and who counts them?
INI-MEX-HLT-04 · heat mortality record; first output: national season series.
A-05
Where do storm and flood losses fall beyond sovereign catastrophe cover?
INI-MEX-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-state loss table.
A-06
How do aquifer overdraft and subsidence interact in the Valley of Mexico?
INI-MEX-WAT-06 · workstream; first output: basin note.
A-07
How does the electricity transition affect water use and cooling demand?
To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.
A-08
Which capabilities have been tested in real disasters, and which are only listed?
National capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for admission at the Q1 2027 alignment. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
ID	Object	Kind	Question	State
INI-MEX-WAT-01	Drought, irrigation and grid compound dependency	Initiative	A-01	PROPOSED
INI-MEX-ENE-02	Gas and fuel import resilience	Initiative	A-02	PROPOSED
INI-MEX-FOO-03	Maize, feed and livestock trade exposure	Initiative	A-03	PROPOSED
INI-MEX-HLT-04	Heat mortality record	Initiative	A-04	PROPOSED
INI-MEX-FIN-05	Disaster protection gap	Initiative	A-05	PROPOSED
PRJ-MEX-WAT-01a	Two-basin dependency graph	Project	A-01	PROPOSED
MSN-MEX-2027-01	Drought, water and grid Universe mission	Mission	A-01	Candidate

7.3The pathway

Mexico is the national pathway through which the Nexus operating system will run in Mexico from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its records are prepared; its councils and working groups are constituted from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

01
One National Agenda
bounded national questions for the year
DRAFT 2027 · agenda review at the Q1 alignment
02
National Desk
coordination, records, routing and continuity
DESIGNED · constituted in Q1 2027
03
National Model
the country as a system of systems
v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with the first Foundry cut
04
National Portfolio
risks, capabilities, initiatives, projects, missions
7 PROPOSED · admission at the Q1 alignment
05
Foundry
continuous computational environment
PREPARED · first sealed cut NQ-MEX-2027-Q1
06
Reports
quarterly and annual publication
BASELINE ISSUED · Q1 2027 · State & Agenda
07
Universe
annual proving environment
CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate set in 2027
08
Evidence and correction
after-action, correction and renewal
OPEN · first correction cycle in Q2 2027

7.4Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission

01
Mandate
02
Core Build · 1 month
03
Action · 1 week
04
Evidence seal
05
Portfolio correction
06
Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027, evidence pack for the candidate mission
Item	Record	State	Timing
F1	Annual mandate record	PLANNED	after the Q2 2027 alignment
F2	Core Build record	PLANNED	one month before the exercise
F3	Exercise evidence	PLANNED	during the Action week
F4	Decision packets	PLANNED	exercise state only
F5	Proof receipts	PLANNED	scoped to each recorded check
F6	After-action report	PLANNED	within one quarter
F7	Upgrade docket	PLANNED	routed to the Portfolio
F8	Portfolio renewal	PLANNED	Q4 2027 annual edition
F9	Public synthesis	PLANNED	public-safe extracts only

Mission

ID: MSN-MEX-2027-01 · Drought, water and grid Universe mission
Role spine: Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)
Receiving actors: to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
Finding	Routed to	Purpose	Class
ENE-001 · imports	INI-MEX-ENE-02	import resilience	PUBLIC
WAT-004 · treaty	INI-MEX-WAT-01	drought and grid compound	PUBLIC
WAT-005 · stress	INI-MEX-WAT-06	basin note	PUBLIC
SEI-006 · Valley of Mexico	INI-MEX-WAT-06	subsidence and aquifers	PUBLIC
CLI-007 · storms	INI-MEX-FIN-05	protection gap	PUBLIC
FOO-008 · trade	INI-MEX-FOO-03	food trade exposure	PUBLIC
HLT-009 · deprivation	INI-MEX-HLT-04	heat mortality record	PUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathway	MSN-MEX-2027-01	Universe candidate	CONSORTIUM

Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
Class	Where it goes	Who can see it
PUBLIC	the published edition and its evidence bundle	anyone
CONSORTIUM	governed rooms of the national pathway	consortium members under agreement
CONTROLLED	need-to-know channels	named competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from Q1 2027
Feed	Producer	Latency	Feeds into
Drought monitor	SMN · Conagua	every two weeks	WAT-005
Seismic reports	Servicio Sismológico Nacional	per event	SEI-006
Heat-illness surveillance	Dirección General de Epidemiología	weekly in season	HLT-009
Hurricane advisories	US National Hurricane Center	per advisory	CLI-007
Treaty delivery accounts	IBWC	per cycle and annual	WAT-004
Electricity mix	Ember	annual	ENE-002
Energy balance	SENER	annual	ENE-001

Escalation routes

none · keep monitoring
research question
project
risk object
quarterly publication
signal report

Table 7.6Signals at baseline
ID	Signal	Corroboration	Systems	Route
SIG-MEX-001	Drought area fell from 76% at its 2024 peak to 7.4% in January 2026¹⁴	CORROBORATED	CLI · WAT	risk object RSK-MEX-WAT-001
SIG-MEX-002	Treaty shortfall of 0.87 million acre-feet at cycle end⁶	CORROBORATED	WAT · TRD	research question A-01
SIG-MEX-003	Repeat flooding and storm losses in 2023 and 2025⁷¹⁷	CORROBORATED	CLI · INF	initiative A-05

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

14UnoTV and AFP (eds.), “Sequía retrocede a 7.4% tras máximo de 2024, el menor nivel en 6 años,” reporting the SMN drought monitor. UnoTV, Mexico City, 30 January 2026. Observation year: 2024 (peak), 2026 (January).back
6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
17Por Esto (ed.), “Suman 72 muertos y 48 desaparecidos por lluvias en cinco estados,” reporting a federal government statement. Por Esto, Mérida, 17 October 2025. Observation year: 2025.back

Mexico 2026
Chapter 8

Systems in depth

One section per system: its state at evidence close, its exposures and what the operational series will watch.

6 min read0 figures5 tables13 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

8.1Water, the baseline system chapter

Mexico’s water is scarce in the north and centre, shared with the United States on two rivers, and drawn from aquifers that are overdrawn in many regions. Water stress, drought and treaty accounts are the binding risks.

64%

of the continental area under water stress, 2025³

114aquifers

overexploited, 2023¹³

0.88of 1.75

million acre-feet delivered, 2020–2025⁶

Table 8.1State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Stress	water stress on 64% of the area, home to about 70% of people	³	Reported
Aquifers	114 overexploited in 2023, against 102 in 2011	¹³	Reported
Shared rivers	cycle closed with a shortfall; annual floor restated in 2026	⁶	Reported
Service coverage	97.6% of dwellings with piped water; 2.5% without drainage	¹	Reported

Couplings into other systems

WAT → FOO irrigation and yield
WAT → ENE hydropower and cooling
ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
WAT → TRD treaty accounts

Evidence to bind in 2027

reservoir storage series for the main supply systems
aquifer availability by basin

8.2Energy, the baseline system chapter

Mexico produces most of its crude and gas, yet imports refined products and generates most of its electricity from dry gas. Clean power is growing from a low base.

64.2%

of electricity from dry gas, 2024⁴

26%

clean share of electricity, 2025⁵

38.5%

clean-generation target for 2030³

Table 8.2State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Production	7,359 PJ of primary energy, down 27.9% since 2010	⁴	Reported
Imports	5,010 PJ of refined products, mostly dry gas, gasoline and diesel	⁴	Reported
Power mix	solar and wind 13%, fossil 74% in 2025	⁵	Reported
Expansion	29,074 MW planned to 2030 for 624,618 million pesos	⁴	Reported

Couplings into other systems

TRD → ENE gas and fuel imports
ENE → WAT pumping and treatment
ENE → FOO fuel and irrigation
CLI → ENE peak demand

Evidence to bind in 2027

gas and fuel storage depth
grid resilience to cyclones and earthquakes

8.3Food and agrifood, the baseline system chapter

Food policy and trade changed in 2025: planting of modified maize is barred by the constitution, and livestock trade with the United States was disrupted by screwworm. Import volumes were not bound at evidence close.

14.4%

without access to nutritious food, 2024²

2.83million ha

crops lost to drought, 2018–2023³

Not boundmaize

import volumes · USDA⁴⁶

Table 8.3State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Deprivation	14.4% lacked access to nutritious food, 18.8 million people	²	Reported
Maize rule	constitutional bar on planting modified maize, March 2025	²²	Reported
Cattle trade	US suspension of live-cattle imports from 11 May 2025	²³	Reported
Drought losses	2.83 million hectares of crops lost in 2018–2023	³	Reported

Couplings into other systems

TRD → FOO import dependence
WAT → FOO irrigation and yield
ENE → FOO fuel and cold chain
CLI → FOO heat and drought

Evidence to bind in 2027

maize and feed import volumes by origin
cattle trade losses

8.4Health and One Health, the baseline system chapter

Poverty fell sharply between 2022 and 2024, yet more than a third of people lacked access to health services. Heat adds load each season, and no national season total was bound at evidence close.

34.2%

without access to health services, 2024²

72.5%

affiliated to a health institution, 2025¹

285deaths

heat deaths reported March to August 2024¹⁶

Table 8.4State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Poverty	38.5 million people in 2024, down from 46.8 million in 2022	²	Reported
Access	34.2% without access to health services in 2024	²	Reported
Affiliation	72.5% affiliated; IMSS covers 54.1% of those affiliated	¹	Reported
Heat	285 deaths reported from March to August 2024	¹⁶	Reported

Couplings into other systems

CLI → HLT heat
WAT → HLT drinking water and sanitation
ENE → HLT cooling and power
SEI → HLT injuries and service loss

Evidence to bind in 2027

national heat mortality season totals
health facility continuity in disasters

8.5Biodiversity and ecosystems, the baseline system chapter

Mexico protects 98 million hectares in 232 federal areas, but many lack a management programme and spending per hectare is small. Forest area and loss were not bound at evidence close.

232areas

federal protected areas, 2026¹²

98million ha

under protection, 2026¹²

94areas

without a management programme¹²

Table 8.5State at baseline
Component	State	Evidence	Status
Protection	98 million hectares, 7.3 million more than in 2018	¹²	Reported
Management	94 of 232 areas without a programme	¹²	Reported
Spending	16.2 pesos per protected hectare in the 2027 proposal, 10.22 in 2025	¹²	Reported
Forest	area and loss not bound	³⁹	NOT BOUND

Couplings into other systems

BIO → WAT recharge and regulation
BIO → FOO pollination and soils
CLI → BIO drought and fire
FOO → BIO land conversion

Evidence to bind in 2027

forest area and annual loss
ecosystem condition outside protected areas

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
13Expansión Política (ed.), “Acuíferos sobreexplotados en México y gestión del agua subterránea,” reporting Conagua data. Expansión, Mexico City, 25 January 2026. Observation year: 2023.back
6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
46United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Mexico: Grain and Feed Annual. GAIN report, Washington DC, latest edition (not retrievable at evidence close). Observation year: not bound.back
22Seed World (ed.), “Mexico approves constitutional ban on planting genetically modified corn.” Seed World, 24 March 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
23El Imparcial (ed.), “Cierra EEUU nuevamente frontera con México por gusano en el ganado.” El Imparcial, 11 May 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
16El Imparcial (ed.), “¿Cuándo termina la ola de calor del 2024? 285 muertos por altas temperaturas: Secretaría de Salud.” El Imparcial, 28 August 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
12Expansión Política (ed.), “Presupuesto 2027 pone en riesgo las áreas naturales protegidas,” reporting an analysis by NOSSA of official data. Expansión, Mexico City, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
39Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025 (Mexico country report not opened at evidence close). Observation year: 2025 (not bound).back

Mexico 2026
Annex A

Methodology

How the edition was made: methods, the model card, the evidence cut and its age, the acceptance record and the glossary.

10 min read0 figures12 tables8 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

A.1Methods

The baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

Table A.1Methods
No.	Derivation	Calculation	Result
(1)	Rio Grande shortfall, 2020–2025 cycle	1.75 − 0.88	0.87 million acre-feet
(2)	Shortfall as a share of the cycle floor	0.87 ÷ 1.75	≈ 50%
(3)	Refined products as a share of total energy supply, 2024	5,010 ÷ 12,354	≈ 41%
(4)	Primary production as a share of total energy supply, 2024	7,359 ÷ 12,354	≈ 60%

Table A.2Coupling strength scale (matrix and model card)
Strength	Definition
STRONG	a disruption in the source system has historically changed the target system’s service or output within one season
MODERATE	an effect is documented but buffered or slower
WEAK	an effect is plausible but not documented at national scale

Table A.3Status grammar
Label	Rule
Reported	value as issued by its source, with year
Inferred	reasoned from cited evidence; never a measurement
Estimated	Nexus analytical value with stated method
Scenario	conditional on stated assumptions
Expert input	structured editorial judgement awaiting evidence

A.2Model card, National Model v0

Model ID: MDL-MEX-NATIONAL · v0.1
Purpose: represent Mexico as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems with forcing and transmission layers
Family: graph-based system of systems
Inputs: the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data
Method: expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from evidence and analogue events
Validation: none yet, first validation against Q1 2027 Foundry evidence
Uncertainty: qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements
Domain of validity: national scale; not for state or asset-level use
Reproducibility: strength table and sources published in this edition

20couplings

typed in v0

9strong

documented within one season

7moderate

documented, buffered

4weak

plausible, undocumented

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Model runs begin with the first Foundry cut in Q1 2027.

Cut ID: NQ-MEX-2026-Q0-1
Type: baseline documentary cut
Resolution policy: pinned · as of 30 September 2026
Sources pinned: 47 cited sources, each at the edition and retrieval date in the references
Model runs: none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method
Digest: computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record
Supersedes: nothing, first cut of the series
Superseded by: NQ-MEX-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

01
source edition
02
pinned citation
03
finding
04
page
05
publication record

Table A.4From the baseline cut to the first Foundry cut
Element	Baseline 2026	Q1 2027
Sources	cited publications, pinned by edition	qualified source bindings with versions
Analysis	stated methods and editorial estimates	typed analysis specifications
Models	National Model v0 specification	model runs with receipts
Findings	twelve baseline findings	findings re-bound to the cut
Review	five passes scheduled	five passes on the exact digest

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

Table A.5Evidence age and coverage
Indicator	Observed	Released	Cadence	Next release
Population and housing	2025	Sep 2026	quinquennial	next intercensal round
Multidimensional poverty	2024	Aug 2025	biennial	next ENIGH round
Energy balance	2024	Jun 2026	annual	next annual balance
Electricity mix	2025	May 2026	annual	annual
Treaty deliveries	cycle to Oct 2025	Mar 2026	per cycle	next cycle report
NDC 3.0	2025	Nov 2025	periodic	next contribution
Hurricane Otis	2023	2024	per event	per event
Drought area	Jan 2026	Jan 2026	biweekly	biweekly
Aquifer overexploitation	2023	Jan 2026	periodic	next availability update

Table A.6Coverage by system at baseline
System	Coverage	Thinnest dimension
Seismic hazard	PARTIAL	lifeline fragility in the Valley of Mexico
Climate forcing	GOOD	municipal drought and heat series
Energy	GOOD	stock depth and routes
Food	THIN	maize and feed import volumes
Health	PARTIAL	heat mortality totals
Water	PARTIAL	reservoir storage series
Biodiversity	PARTIAL	forest area and loss
Digital	THIN	dependency mapping

A.5Evidence cards, two anchor sources

Issued by INEGI, the national statistics institute, as press release 54/26 of 22 September 2026. Fieldwork 6 October to 14 November 2025; sample of 7.3 million dwellings. Role: binds population, housing and service figures.

EVD-MEX-001

Intercensal Survey 2025¹

Issued by SEMARNAT as Mexico’s updated contribution to the UNFCCC in November 2025. Periodic. Role: binds targets, sector shares, water-stress and loss figures, labelled as stated by the government.

EVD-MEX-002

NDC 3.0³

Table A.7Quality dimensions at baseline
Dimension	EVD-MEX-001	EVD-MEX-002
Completeness	all 32 federal entities; 2,478 municipalities	national scope; sectors in full
Timeliness	about 11 months after fieldwork	published within weeks of submission
Revision	comparable with earlier censuses	revised at each contribution
Method transparency	published sample and method	sources named, some data preliminary
External validation	official statistics system	review under the Paris framework

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

INECC greenhouse-gas inventory³⁶: latest year and totals
Conagua water statistics³⁷: aquifer and storage series
DGE heat surveillance⁴⁷: season totals
USDA attaché grain report⁴⁶: import volumes

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

Table A.8Publication acceptance record
Group	Area	Items	Pass	N/A	Pending
D1	Identity and scope	8	8	0	0
D2	Source and data	12	9	1	2
D3	Analysis and models	12	3	8	1
D4	Findings and claims	9	8	0	1
D5	Figures, tables, maps	10	6	2	2
D6	Editorial and citations	10	8	0	2
D7	Review and approval	13	0	0	13
D8	Artefact and design	12	7	0	5
D9	Registry and release	9	0	0	9

Publication gate

Conditions met: 14 of 23 at evidence close
Blocking problems: none recorded
Open conditions: reviews, approval of the exact digest, deposit, registry pointer

Not applicable at baseline

Model runs: first runs in Q1 2027
Maps: plates in Q2 2027
Waivers: none

A.7Status words

Table A.9The status every value carries
Status	What it means
Observed	Measured directly and published by the source.
Reported	Published statistics of an official or institutional source.
Declared	Stated by the body concerned; not independently measured.
Estimated	A Nexus estimate from cited evidence, with its method in Annex A.
Modelled	Produced by a stated model from cited inputs.
Inferred	Reasoned from cited evidence; not measured.
Forecast	A projection by the cited source.
Simulated	A simulation result under stated assumptions.
Scenario	A conditional statement under stated assumptions; never a prediction.
Expert input	Expert judgement, recorded with its basis.
Candidate	Proposed for a later edition; not yet evidence.
Evidence-quality levels (EQL 1 to 5) grade the source behind a value; they are not a score of the subject.

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

Step	What happens	Source
01 Evidence arrives from the pillars	Foundry seals observations and indicator series, Universe hands over after-action and scenario findings, and contributions are screened at every gateway, including this site’s.
02 The cut is sealed	On the cut date the evidence is pinned under one identifier, so anyone can rebuild the edition from exactly what it was built on.
03 The edition is assembled	The edition is drafted from its template and content pack. Agents may draft; they never publish and never decide.
04 The keys turn	At the publisher of record the truth key comes first: every value is checked against its source or stated method before the meaning and capital keys turn. No edition moves on until every key has been turned by a named steward.
05 The gate opens	A named approver releases one exact digest of the edition; any change after this point is a new version, never a silent edit.
06 Signed and deposited	The PDF, the web edition and the data bundle are signed together with a manifest and an RO-Crate description, and deposited on Zenodo with a concept and a version DOI.
07 Published on its desk’s site	Only then does the edition show as published on its desk’s Reports site, and the Collection lists it as a part.
08 Corrections go to Standards	Method and correction findings go to Nexus Standards as change proposals; citations, corrections and new contributions feed the next evidence cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

Table A.10Series terms
Term	Meaning
Baseline Edition	the inaugural annual edition that fixes the reference state for the series
WEFH+B	water, energy, food, health and biodiversity, the national nexus core
Coupling	a typed dependency through which one system transmits to another
Protection gap	the share of losses not covered by insurance
Capability ladder	LISTED → EXISTS → ADEQUATE → TESTED → DEMONSTRATED
EQL	evidence-quality level, 1–5
Evidence cut	a frozen resolution of exact sources and versions
NNC · NLC · NWG	National Nexus Consortium · National Leadership Council · National Working Groups

Table A.11Abbreviations used in this edition
Abbreviation	Expansion
Banxico	Bank of Mexico (Banco de México)
CAT	Climate Action Tracker
Conagua	National Water Commission (Comisión Nacional del Agua)
Conanp	National Commission of Protected Natural Areas
CRS	Congressional Research Service
DGE	General Directorate of Epidemiology (Dirección General de Epidemiología)
ENIGH	National Household Income and Expenditure Survey
IBWC	International Boundary and Water Commission
INECC	National Institute of Ecology and Climate Change
INEGI	National Institute of Statistics and Geography (Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía)
NDC	nationally determined contribution
NHC	US National Hurricane Center
SENER	Ministry of Energy (Secretaría de Energía)
SMN	National Meteorological Service (Servicio Meteorológico Nacional)
SSN	National Seismological Service (Servicio Sismológico Nacional)
USMCA	United States-Mexico-Canada Agreement

A.10Technical annex

Table A.12Technical annex
Item	Annex	Contents	Status
A.1	Indicator definitions	the baseline indicator set, with units and sources	IN THIS EDITION
A.2	Coupling strengths	the twenty-cell matrix and its rationale	IN THIS EDITION
A.3	Scenario specification	SCN-MEX-DRT-01 assumptions and signposts	IN THIS EDITION
A.4	Capability placements	rung evidence for fifteen functions	IN THIS EDITION
A.5	Model diagnostics	first runs and validation	Q1 2027
A.6	Sensitivity analyses	influence of coupling strengths	Q2 2027
A.7	State notes	atlas cards for every state	Q2 2027
A.8	Review statements	pass-by-pass review record	AT RELEASE

A.1 · indicator definition, share of energy supply imported

Construct: imported refined energy products divided by total energy supply
Unit: petajoules, ratio
Scope: Mexico, calendar year 2024
Source: SENER balance³⁸, as reproduced by the Bank of Mexico⁴
Revision: figures as of April 2026; revisions possible
Known limits: components in the source do not sum exactly to the total

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
36Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Informe del Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Gases y Compuestos de Efecto Invernadero 1990–2022. INECC, Mexico City, 2024. Observation year: 2022 (total not bound in this edition).back
37Comisión Nacional del Agua (ed.), Estadísticas del Agua en México. Conagua, Mexico City, latest edition (not opened at evidence close). Observation year: to be bound.back
47Dirección General de Epidemiología (ed.), Informe semanal de daños a la salud por temperaturas naturales extremas. Secretaría de Salud, Mexico City, weekly in season (national season total not retrieved). Observation year: not bound.back
46United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Mexico: Grain and Feed Annual. GAIN report, Washington DC, latest edition (not retrievable at evidence close). Observation year: not bound.back
38Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. SENER, Mexico City, 2025 (figures used as reproduced in [4]). Observation year: 2024.back
4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back

Mexico 2026
Annex B

Data appendix

The indicator set with its sources, the source registers, the licences of every kind of material and the formats of the edition.

9 min read0 figures7 tables23 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

B.1The indicator set

Table B.1Baseline indicator set
Indicator	Value	Unit	Year	State	Source
Population	130.9	million	2025	Reported	¹
Median age	32	years	2025	Reported	¹
Multidimensional poverty	29.6	%	2024	Reported	²
Extreme poverty	5.3	%	2024	Reported	²
Lacking access to nutritious food	14.4	%	2024	Reported	²
Lacking access to health services	34.2	%	2024	Reported	²
Primary energy production	7,359	PJ	2024	Reported	⁴
Refined products imported	5,010	PJ	2024	Reported	⁴
Dry gas share of electricity	64.2	%	2024	Reported	⁴
Clean share of electricity	26	%	2025	Reported	⁵
Net emissions target 2035, unconditional	364–404	MtCO₂e	2035	Reported	³
Rio Grande water delivered, 2020–2025	0.88	million acre-feet	2025	Reported	⁶
Area under water stress	64	%	2025	Reported	³
Overexploited aquifers	114	aquifers	2023	Reported	¹³
Federal protected areas without management programme	94 of 232	areas	2026	Reported	¹²
Hurricane Otis total damage	12–16	US$ billion	2023	Reported	⁷
National greenhouse-gas total, latest year	Not bound	MtCO₂e	n/a	NOT BOUND	INECC³⁶
Heat deaths, national season total	Not bound	deaths	n/a	NOT BOUND	DGE⁴⁷
Maize imports, latest marketing year	Not bound	million t	n/a	NOT BOUND	USDA⁴⁶
Forest area and annual loss	Not bound	ha	n/a	NOT BOUND	FAO³⁹

Indicators, CSV Indicators, JSON

B.2National source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

Table B.3National source register
Source	Category	Coverage	Period	Cadence	Role
Intercensal Survey 2025¹	national statistics	national	2025	quinquennial	profile
Poverty measurement²	national statistics	national	2024	biennial	HLT
NDC 3.0³	government	national	2025	periodic	CLI
Energy balance via Banxico⁴	central bank · ministry	national	2024	annual	ENE
Electricity profile⁵	independent think tank	national	2025	annual	ENE
Delivery accounts⁶	legislative research service	binational	2025	per cycle	WAT
Hurricane report⁷	national technical authority	event	2023	per event	CLI
Seismological report⁹	university service	event	2017	per event	SEI
Drought monitor¹⁵	national technical authority	national	to 2026	biweekly	WAT
Aquifer counts¹³	press reporting official data	national	2023	periodic	WAT
Protected areas¹²	press reporting official data	national	2026	annual	BIO

B.3Regional reading, Mexico by region

Map plates for every state follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form.

Table B.4Regional reading, Mexico by region
Region	Principal hazards	Systems most exposed	Baseline evidence
Northern border states	drought, shared rivers, heat	water, energy, food trade	treaty accounts⁶
Pacific coast	category 5 storms, earthquakes	housing, roads, power	Otis 2023⁷ · January 2026 quake¹⁸
Valley of Mexico and central highlands	subsidence, water stress, earthquakes	water, buildings, health	subsidence¹¹ · 2017⁹
Gulf-slope states (Veracruz, Hidalgo, Puebla)	heavy rain, floods, landslides	roads, homes, power	October 2025¹⁷
Atlantic coast	Atlantic named storms	coastal infrastructure	cat bond class C⁸
Southern states	poverty, health access	health, food	not bound by state in this edition

B.4Atlas card, Acapulco and the Guerrero coast

region
Pacific coast
storm landfall
seismic zone

Systems in view: housing, roads, power, health and tourism
Defining events: Hurricane Otis, category 5, 25 October 2023⁷; magnitude 6.5 earthquake near San Marcos on 2 January 2026¹⁸
Couplings: CLI → INF; SEI → INF; INF → HLT
Capability evidence: storm and seismic reports in routine use⁷⁹
Gaps: restoration times; housing loss counts; insurance take-up
Agenda items: A-05

Otis made landfall at Acapulco as a 140-kt category 5 hurricane, the strongest landfalling hurricane on record in the eastern Pacific since the centre’s records began.

STORM

Strongest landfall on record

The centre estimates total damage at US$12–16 billion, and the latest update counted 52 direct deaths with 32 people missing.

LOSSES

US$12–16 billion

A magnitude 6.5 earthquake near San Marcos on 2 January 2026 was felt in Mexico City, and damage to homes was reported in Guerrero.

EARTHQUAKE

A second test in 2026

B.5Mexico system card

The card through which Mexico appears in the North America regional edition and the global series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Table B.5Mexico system card
System	Baseline state	Coupling to watch	Coverage
Water	stress on 64% of the area; shared rivers	drought into food and power	PARTIAL
Energy	dry gas 64.2% of power; clean 26%	import disruption	GOOD
Food	maize rule and cattle trade changes	trade shocks	THIN
Health	deprivation 34.2%; heat deaths	heat and water stress	PARTIAL
Biodiversity	98 million hectares protected	funding and management gaps	PARTIAL

Context

Archetype: large federal economy with shared rivers, imported fuels and coastal and seismic exposure
Population: 130.9 million (2025)¹
Trade: USMCA partner; fuels, grain and cattle cross the northern border⁴²¹²³
Hazard: Otis damage US$12–16 billion⁷

Mexico’s card sits beside its neighbours’; shared basins, grids, corridors and supply chains are read as one regional system.

NORTH AMERICA REGIONAL EDITION

One regional system

Mexican evidence enters the water, energy, food, finance and climate sector reports through the same finding identifiers, so a correction travels everywhere at once.

GLOBAL SECTOR SERIES

Same findings, same IDs

In the global edition Mexico is read against peer distributions and thresholds, never placed in a league table.

GLOBAL FLAGSHIP

Peers, not ranks

B.6Licences

Table B.6Licences of each kind of material
Material	Licence
Text	CC BY 4.0
Data	on the licence of each source; Nexus tables CC BY 4.0
Figures	Nexus figures CC BY 4.0; third-party as credited
Maps	boundary source and licence printed on each plate
Metadata	CC0 1.0, as Zenodo publishes it
Third-party data, figures and text	The source’s own licence, credited where it is used; never relicensed
Nexus-authored text, tables and figures: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0). Map plates print their boundary source and licence.

B.7Formats and provenance

Table B.7This edition in every format
Format	Kind	State	What it is	Identifier
Web edition	HTML	On this site	Draft in stewardship review; every value resolves to its source.	NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Print edition	PDF	At release	A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF, signed with the web edition at release.	NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Indicator data	CSV · JSON	On this site	20 indicators with unit, year, status and source; the machine-readable copy ships with the evidence bundle at release.	NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE data release v1
Figures	SVG · PNG	On this site	4 on the web edition: headline figure, figure 1.3, coupling instrument, capability ladder.	FIG-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-*
Slides	PDF	Not recorded	No slide deck is recorded for this edition.
Evidence brief	HTML · PDF	Not recorded	No evidence brief is recorded for this edition.
Dataset with DOI	DataCite	At release	Concept and version DOI are minted at deposit; none is recorded yet.

Provenance

Edition pack: The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built
Evidence cut: NQ-MEX-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026
Reproducibility: sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters
Self-check: 14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release
Review: five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)
Publisher of record: GCRI for the Nexus Consortium
Corrections: Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back
4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025.back
3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
13Expansión Política (ed.), “Acuíferos sobreexplotados en México y gestión del agua subterránea,” reporting Conagua data. Expansión, Mexico City, 25 January 2026. Observation year: 2023.back
12Expansión Política (ed.), “Presupuesto 2027 pone en riesgo las áreas naturales protegidas,” reporting an analysis by NOSSA of official data. Expansión, Mexico City, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023.back
36Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Informe del Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Gases y Compuestos de Efecto Invernadero 1990–2022. INECC, Mexico City, 2024. Observation year: 2022 (total not bound in this edition).back
47Dirección General de Epidemiología (ed.), Informe semanal de daños a la salud por temperaturas naturales extremas. Secretaría de Salud, Mexico City, weekly in season (national season total not retrieved). Observation year: not bound.back
46United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Mexico: Grain and Feed Annual. GAIN report, Washington DC, latest edition (not retrievable at evidence close). Observation year: not bound.back
39Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025 (Mexico country report not opened at evidence close). Observation year: 2025 (not bound).back
30S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
31S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
9Servicio Sismológico Nacional (ed.), Reporte especial: Sismo del día 19 de septiembre de 2017, Puebla-Morelos (M 7.1). UNAM, Mexico City, 2017. Observation year: 2017.back
15Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México. Conagua, Mexico City, issued every two weeks since February 2014; page consulted 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
18ADN40 (ed.), “Sismo del 2 de enero acumula cerca de mil réplicas: recuento de daños y zonas afectadas.” ADN40, Mexico City, 2 January 2026. Observation year: 2026.back
11E. Chaussard, E. Havazli, H. Fattahi, E. Cabral-Cano and D. Solano-Rojas, “Over a century of sinking in Mexico City: no hope for significant elevation and storage capacity recovery,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 126, no. 4, e2020JB020648, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (record from 1900).back
17Por Esto (ed.), “Suman 72 muertos y 48 desaparecidos por lluvias en cinco estados,” reporting a federal government statement. Por Esto, Mérida, 17 October 2025. Observation year: 2025.back
8World Bank (ed.), “World Bank Issues $420 Million in Catastrophe Bonds for Renewed Disaster Risk Protection for Mexico.” Press release, Washington DC, 17 April 2024. Observation year: 2024.back
21Government of Canada, Government of Mexico and Government of the United States, Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (USMCA). In force 1 July 2020. Observation year: 2020 (text in force).back
23El Imparcial (ed.), “Cierra EEUU nuevamente frontera con México por gusano en el ganado.” El Imparcial, 11 May 2025. Observation year: 2025.back

Mexico 2026
Annex C

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

12 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

C.147 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025: En 2025, en México residían 130.9 millones de personas. Comunicado de prensa 54/26. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares). Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
5Ember (ed.), Mexico: electricity country profile, 2025 data. Ember, London, page updated 20 May 2026. Observation year: 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments). Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
7National Hurricane Center (ed.), Tropical Cyclone Report: Hurricane Otis (EP182023), 22–25 October 2023. NOAA, Miami, 2024. Observation year: 2023. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 7
8World Bank (ed.), “World Bank Issues $420 Million in Catastrophe Bonds for Renewed Disaster Risk Protection for Mexico.” Press release, Washington DC, 17 April 2024. Observation year: 2024. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
9Servicio Sismológico Nacional (ed.), Reporte especial: Sismo del día 19 de septiembre de 2017, Puebla-Morelos (M 7.1). UNAM, Mexico City, 2017. Observation year: 2017. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4
10Secretaría de Gobernación (ed.), Declaratorias de Emergencia Extraordinaria y de Desastre Natural por el sismo de magnitud 7.1 del 19 de septiembre de 2017. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Mexico City, 27–28 September 2017. Observation year: 2017. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2
11E. Chaussard, E. Havazli, H. Fattahi, E. Cabral-Cano and D. Solano-Rojas, “Over a century of sinking in Mexico City: no hope for significant elevation and storage capacity recovery,” Journal of Geophysical Research: Solid Earth, vol. 126, no. 4, e2020JB020648, 2021. Observation year: 2021 (record from 1900). Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
12Expansión Política (ed.), “Presupuesto 2027 pone en riesgo las áreas naturales protegidas,” reporting an analysis by NOSSA of official data. Expansión, Mexico City, 22 September 2026. Observation year: 2026. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
13Expansión Política (ed.), “Acuíferos sobreexplotados en México y gestión del agua subterránea,” reporting Conagua data. Expansión, Mexico City, 25 January 2026. Observation year: 2023. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 8
14UnoTV and AFP (eds.), “Sequía retrocede a 7.4% tras máximo de 2024, el menor nivel en 6 años,” reporting the SMN drought monitor. UnoTV, Mexico City, 30 January 2026. Observation year: 2024 (peak), 2026 (January). Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7
15Servicio Meteorológico Nacional and Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México. Conagua, Mexico City, issued every two weeks since February 2014; page consulted 2026. Observation year: 2026. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
16El Imparcial (ed.), “¿Cuándo termina la ola de calor del 2024? 285 muertos por altas temperaturas: Secretaría de Salud.” El Imparcial, 28 August 2024. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
17Por Esto (ed.), “Suman 72 muertos y 48 desaparecidos por lluvias en cinco estados,” reporting a federal government statement. Por Esto, Mérida, 17 October 2025. Observation year: 2025. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 7
18ADN40 (ed.), “Sismo del 2 de enero acumula cerca de mil réplicas: recuento de daños y zonas afectadas.” ADN40, Mexico City, 2 January 2026. Observation year: 2026.
19Climate Action Tracker (ed.), Mexico: 2035 NDC assessment. Climate Analytics and NewClimate Institute, update of 25 February 2026. Observation year: 2025–2026. Cited in chapter 2
20United States and Mexico, Treaty on Utilization of Waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande. Washington DC, 3 February 1944. Observation year: 1944 (text in force). Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
21Government of Canada, Government of Mexico and Government of the United States, Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (USMCA). In force 1 July 2020. Observation year: 2020 (text in force). Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6
22Seed World (ed.), “Mexico approves constitutional ban on planting genetically modified corn.” Seed World, 24 March 2025. Observation year: 2025. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
23El Imparcial (ed.), “Cierra EEUU nuevamente frontera con México por gusano en el ganado.” El Imparcial, 11 May 2025. Observation year: 2025. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 8
24J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year: 2018. Cited in chapter 6
25H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year: 2023. Cited in chapter 6
26P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 6
27UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year: 2015. Cited in chapter 6
28Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year: 2022. Cited in chapter 6
29UNFCCC (ed.), Paris Agreement. United Nations, Paris, 2015. Observation year: 2015. Cited in chapter 6
30S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.
31S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year: 2026.
32Gobierno de México (ed.), Plan Nacional de Desarrollo 2025–2030. Mexico City, 2025. Observation year: 2025. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
33Congreso de la Unión (ed.), Ley General de Cambio Climático, as amended. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Mexico City, 6 June 2012 and later reforms. Observation year: 2012 (text in force). Cited in chapter 6
34Congreso de la Unión (ed.), Ley de Aguas Nacionales, as amended. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Mexico City, 1 December 1992 and later reforms. Observation year: 1992 (text in force). Cited in chapter 6
35Congreso de la Unión (ed.), Ley del Sector Eléctrico, in force from the March 2025 energy reform package. Diario Oficial de la Federación, Mexico City, March 2025. Observation year: 2025. Cited in chapter 6
36Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Informe del Inventario Nacional de Emisiones de Gases y Compuestos de Efecto Invernadero 1990–2022. INECC, Mexico City, 2024. Observation year: 2022 (total not bound in this edition). Cited in chapter 6
37Comisión Nacional del Agua (ed.), Estadísticas del Agua en México. Conagua, Mexico City, latest edition (not opened at evidence close). Observation year: to be bound.
38Secretaría de Energía (ed.), Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. SENER, Mexico City, 2025 (figures used as reproduced in [4]). Observation year: 2024.
39Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (ed.), Global Forest Resources Assessment 2025. FAO, Rome, 2025 (Mexico country report not opened at evidence close). Observation year: 2025 (not bound). Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
40International Energy Agency (ed.), World Energy Outlook 2025. IEA, Paris, 2025. Observation year: 2024–2025. Cited in chapter 6
41UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025. UNDRR, Geneva, 2025. Observation year: 2025. Cited in chapter 6
42World Bank Group (ed.), Mexico Country Climate and Development Report. World Bank, Washington DC, 2023. Observation year: 2023. Cited in chapter 6
43World Meteorological Organization (ed.), State of the Climate in Latin America and the Caribbean 2024. WMO, Geneva, 2025. Observation year: 2024. Cited in chapter 6
44UNESCO World Water Assessment Programme (ed.), The United Nations World Water Development Report 2024: Water for Prosperity and Peace. UNESCO, Paris, 2024. Observation year: 2023–2024. Cited in chapter 6
45Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales and INECC (eds.), Sexta Comunicación Nacional y Segundo Informe Bienal de Actualización ante la CMNUCC. Mexico City, 2018. Observation year: 2018. Cited in chapter 6
46United States Department of Agriculture, Foreign Agricultural Service (ed.), Mexico: Grain and Feed Annual. GAIN report, Washington DC, latest edition (not retrievable at evidence close). Observation year: not bound. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
47Dirección General de Epidemiología (ed.), Informe semanal de daños a la salud por temperaturas naturales extremas. Secretaría de Salud, Mexico City, weekly in season (national season total not retrieved). Observation year: not bound.

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title: Mexico Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026, Baseline Edition
Series: Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition: Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version: v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close: 30 September 2026
Publication date: October 2026
DOI: concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record: The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place: Toronto
Editor: Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards: GCRI · technical truth · GRF · public meaning · GRA · capital meaning
Licence: text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Language: English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence: Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format: A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces: Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard: Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility: tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production: Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
Step	What happens	When
Draft	editorial self-check complete at evidence close	October 2026
Steward review	five passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)	Q4 2026
Approval	publication authority approves the exact digest	before release
Deposit	concept and version DOI minted; registry pointer set	at release
Succession	the Q1 2027 edition reports changes against this baseline	Q1 2027

Current version: v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition: none, first edition of the series
Next edition: NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2027-Q1-v1.0.0

Latest version: resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route: Registry correction pathway
Notice types: erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

Edition	Version	Date	State	Change	Notice
MEX	NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0	October 2026	Draft	Baseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,	None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID: NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias: NR-NAT-MEX-2026-BL
Collection: None
DOI: Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions: Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle: RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence: CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID: Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR: Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT: Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account: None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for Mexico; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

InvenioRDM metadata for a contribution on Mexico, prefilled from this page

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
MEX edition Reports Mexico 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; MEX is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

Handoff	Between	What crosses, and when
F03	Foundry to Reports	Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04	Universe to Reports	After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05	Foundry to Reports	National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
Ring	Nexus Standards to Reports	Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06	Reports to Nexus Standards	Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12	Reports to Universe	Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
Ring	Reports to Risk Academy	Risk Academy: taught in the open.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

S.3Headline finding

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

S.6What this edition is, and is not

What this edition is

What it is not

What comes next

Notes

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

In this part

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

Transmission paths

1.4Reinforcing loops

Notes

2.1Headline finding

Implication

What would move it

2.2Energy

2.3Climate forcing

2.4Water

2.5SEI

2.6Food

2.7Health

2.8Biodiversity

2.9Finance

2.10Systemic

Notes

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

Rio Grande water delivered in the 2020–2025 cycle, against 1.75 owed

Clean share of electricity generation

Maize imports, latest marketing year

Population with no access to health services (deprivation)

Federal protected areas without a management programme

Hurricane Otis total damage estimate

3.2Domain posture

3.3Sector screens

Notes

4.1Risk objects

Drought, aquifer overdraft and shared-river shortfall

Gas and fuel supply disruption

Tropical cyclones and river flooding

Great earthquake and subsidence in the Valley of Mexico

4.2Capability ladder

Notes

5.1Assumptions

5.2The cascade, step by step

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

Notes

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

6.2Three lenses

Technical Truth

Public Meaning

Capital Meaning

Synthesis

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

Standards drafts used in this edition

Standards calendar to watch

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03

EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: q1 2027 readiness pack

Publication dispositions

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Changed since 2024

To watch in 2027

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments

Review protocol

Where the evidence agrees

Where it is unsettled