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Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid

A conditional statement under stated assumptions, never a prediction.

2 min read0 figures0 tables5 notesNR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Mexico’s risk runs through its borders, its basins and its coasts
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid
    1. 5.1 Assumptions
    2. 5.2 The cascade, step by step
    3. 5.3 The scenario as a table of steps
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline
the 2026 reference state in this edition
Drivers
two or more consecutive seasons of drought across northern and central basins, with a hot summer and peak power demand
Analogues
the 2024 drought peak14; the 2020–2025 treaty cycle6
Interventions
none modelled: the specification describes the unmitigated case
Run state
narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

  1. 1

    CLI → WAT

    drought lowers storage and river flows

    2024 peak14

  2. 2

    WAT → FOO

    irrigation and rain-fed yields fall; crop loss rises

    2018–20233

  3. 3

    WAT → ENE

    hydropower falls and cooling water is constrained

    to be bound

  4. 4

    CLI → ENE

    heat raises power demand on a gas-reliant grid

    2024 balance4

  5. 5

    WAT → TRD

    shared-river shortfalls enter trade negotiation

    20256

  6. 6

    HLT → population

    water and heat stress fall on the 34.2% without health access

    20242

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01 would travel through Mexico’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

StepWhat happensSource
01 Climate to waterDrought lowers storage and river flows. Analogue or source: 2024 peak [14].Edition MEX, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01, step 1
02 Water to foodIrrigation and rain-fed yields fall; crop loss rises. Analogue or source: 2018–2023 [3].Edition MEX, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01, step 2
03 Water to energyHydropower falls and cooling water is constrained. Analogue or source: to be bound.Edition MEX, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01, step 3
04 Climate to energyHeat raises power demand on a gas-reliant grid. Analogue or source: 2024 balance [4].Edition MEX, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01, step 4
05 Water to tradeShared-river shortfalls enter trade negotiation. Analogue or source: 2025 [6].Edition MEX, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01, step 5
06 Health to populationWater and heat stress fall on the 34.2% without health access. Analogue or source: 2024 [2].Edition MEX, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01, step 6

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: Mexico 2026, scenario SCN-MEX-DRT-01 (2026); Mexico 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 14UnoTV and AFP (eds.), “Sequía retrocede a 7.4% tras máximo de 2024, el menor nivel en 6 años,” reporting the SMN drought monitor. UnoTV, Mexico City, 30 January 2026. Observation year: 2024 (peak), 2026 (January).back
  2. 6E. H. Humphreys, N. T. Carter and C. V. Stern, 1944 U.S.-Mexico Water Treaty: Issues in the 119th Congress. CRS Insight IF12976, Congressional Research Service, Washington DC, 6 March 2026. Observation year: 2025 (cycle end), 2026 (commitments).back
  3. 3Secretaría de Medio Ambiente y Recursos Naturales (ed.), Actualización de la Contribución Determinada a nivel Nacional 3.0 de México. Submission to the UNFCCC, Mexico City, November 2025. Observation year: 2025 (preliminary 2024 inventory shares).back
  4. 4Banco de México (ed.), “La matriz energética de México,” Recuadro 5, Reporte de Estabilidad Financiera, June 2026, pp. 127–131, using SENER, Balance Nacional de Energía 2024. Banxico, Mexico City, 10 June 2026. Observation year: 2024.back
  5. 2Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Pobreza multidimensional 2024. Comunicado de prensa 118/25. INEGI, Aguascalientes, 13 August 2025. Observation year: 2024.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 5: Multi-year drought on a gas-reliant grid. In Mexico Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: The State of Mexico’s Interdependent Systems (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-COUNTRY-MEX-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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Sector signature

The sectors behind Mexico.

A reading aid: the sectors the findings run through and how strongly they depend on each other.

Select corners · hover lines10 / 15 relations

Context

Drought

Low river flows cut irrigation, cooling water and hydropower at once; food prices, nutrition and ecosystems follow.

W · E · I · F · H · B

Sectors
5 of 6
Relations
10 of 15
Coupling
0.68 share of total

Strongest relations in play

  • Food → Biodiversity · land conversion0.6
  • Water → Energy · cooling water and hydropower0.6
  • Water → Food · irrigation0.8
  • Water → Biodiversity · environmental flows0.6
Teaching values for a typical city-region, not measurements for any place. Coupling is the summed strength of the relations in play, as a share of all fifteen.
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation

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