North America Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of North America’s Interdependent Systems.

S.1Abstract

S.2Key messages

Six readings that frame the North America baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.

1. Canada reported 685 Mt in 2024. The three members together emitted 7,367 Mt excluding land use on the World Bank basis. Bases differ.⁶¹⁴

   Where do emissions stand?Reported

2. A 1909 treaty created the International Joint Commission for Canada and the United States, and a 1944 treaty sets Rio Grande and Colorado River deliveries between Mexico and the United States.²⁷³⁵

   What governs the shared rivers?Reported

3. Canada leans on hydropower, Mexico on oil, gas and coal, and the United States on a mixed supply.⁵

   How is electricity supplied?Reported

4. United States pipelines sent 2.42 trillion cubic feet to Mexico in 2025.²⁵

   How tied is gas supply?Reported

5. The Bureau of Reclamation issued its record of decision on 21 August 2026. Reservoir levels at the close are not bound.¹⁹

   What governs the Colorado River after 2026?Reported

6. Canada burnt 14.6 million hectares in 2023. Drought extent in the United States at the close is not bound.²¹

   How severe are drought and fire?Reported

7. Insured and uninsured loss series are not bound in this edition.³¹³³

   Who carries disaster losses?Not bound

8. Low Colorado and Rio Grande supply, heat load and grid stress coinciding across member borders. SCN-NAM-DRY-01

   What will Q1 2027 test first?Expert input

S.3Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

Mexico delivered 884,861 acre-feet of Rio Grande water in the cycle that ended on 24 October 2025, against a treaty minimum of 1.75 million acre-feet per cycle.

Mexico’s deliveries follow from the 1944 treaty and from conditions in the shared basin. A shortfall against the minimum matters on both sides of the border for farms and cities that rely on the river²³²⁴³⁵.

S.4At a glance

S.5What each steward reads in it

S.6What this edition is, and is not

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 27International Joint Commission (ed.), Mission: prevents and resolves disputes between Canada and the United States under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; three commissioners from each country. IJC, Ottawa and Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 31NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (page opened returned no figures). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), insured catastrophe losses (the page requested returned not found). IBC, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Canada, Mexico and United States (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

1.1The questions this part answers

Key questions

• Where is North America’s risk concentrated, and in which systems?
• Which couplings carry shocks across member borders?
• Which capabilities hold under compound stress, and which are only documented?
• What must the 2027 programme measure first?

In this part

• Narrative
• Headline finding
• Lead figure
• Member system cards
• Shared basins and grids
• Hub list
• Regional pathway
• Twelve-domain reading
• Sector screens
• Dependency matrix
• Risk objects
• Capability ladder
• Scenario
• Three lenses
• Portfolio

1.2The argument

1.3Twenty couplings between five systems

The North America matrix types the twenty couplings between the five core systems. Strengths are Nexus estimates from the cited evidence and analogue events; they set the starting graph that the Q1 2027 Foundry cut will test.

Transmission paths

1. 01

   CLI → WAT → ENE

   Low reservoir levels and low flow limit hydropower and cooling water and raise power stress.

   Inferred Colorado River decision record¹⁹; no event bound

2. 02

   CLI → CLI

   Fire and smoke follow drought and heat across the border.

   Reported Canadian fire 2023²¹

3. 03

   TRD → ENE → FIN

   A gas or trade rule change reaches power prices and public budgets.

   Inferred gas exports 2025²⁵; trade review²⁸; no event bound

4. 04

   WAT → FOO

   Treaty deliveries and drought reach irrigation and crops.

   Inferred Mexican deliveries²⁴; cereals¹⁰

5. 05

   CLI → INF → FIN

   Fire or storm damage hits lifelines and the loss falls on insurers and budgets.

   Inferred loss series not bound

1.4Reinforcing loops

A shock entering either system of a loop can return amplified through the other.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Canada, Mexico and United States (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 3UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025 (130,911,314 inhabitants at 15 October 2025, from search summaries; the page opened showed only its title). INEGI, Aguascalientes. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, share of total (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), and life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 17U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source? (2023: renewables 21.4%, nuclear 18.6%, natural gas 43.1%, coal 16.2% of about 4,178 billion kWh; page updated 29 February 2024). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 18Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Provincial and territorial energy profiles: Canada (hydro 60% of 625.7 TWh in 2021, wind and solar 7%, grid intensity from 220 to 100 g CO2e per kWh between 2005 and 2022). CER, Calgary. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IISD and White & Case (eds.), analyses of the first joint review of the regional trade agreement on 1 July 2026 (no extension agreed, annual reviews, agreement in force to 1 July 2036; both pages refused, taken from search summaries). IISD, Winnipeg; White & Case, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

Mexico delivered 884,861 acre-feet of Rio Grande water in the cycle that ended on 24 October 2025, against a treaty minimum of 1.75 million acre-feet per cycle.

Implication

Mexico’s deliveries follow from the 1944 treaty and from conditions in the shared basin. A shortfall against the minimum matters on both sides of the border for farms and cities that rely on the river²³²⁴³⁵.

What would move it

Deliveries under the new cycle, the first operating decisions under the post-2026 Colorado River framework¹⁹ and any change to the international terms would each move this finding. Deliveries in the new cycle are not bound²³.

2.2Climate forcing

1. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-001

   Canada’s greenhouse gas emissions were 685 Mt CO₂e in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023; the United States reported 5,489 Mt net for 2022, 17% below 2005.¹⁴¹⁶

2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-002

   On one World Bank basis excluding land use, the three members emitted 7,367 Mt CO₂e in 2024: the United States 5,913 Mt, Canada 768 Mt and Mexico 687 Mt.⁶

3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-CLI-008

   Canadian wildfires burnt more than 14.6 million hectares in 2023 and forced more than 230,000 evacuations; by mid-August 2025 more than 7.5 million hectares had burnt.²¹²²

2.3Energy

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-ENE-003

   In 2025 oil, gas and coal supplied 21.7% of Canadian, 57.6% of United States and 75.4% of Mexican electricity; hydropower supplied 54.0% in Canada.⁵

2. ReportedEQL 5NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-ENE-004

   United States pipelines exported 2.42 trillion cubic feet of gas to Mexico and 1.03 trillion cubic feet to Canada in 2025.²⁵

2.4Water

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-WAT-005

   The Bureau of Reclamation issued its post-2026 record of decision on 21 August 2026 for operations from 2027. Reservoir levels at 30 September 2026 are not bound.¹⁹

2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-WAT-006

   Mexico delivered 884,861 acre-feet of water in the Rio Grande cycle that ended on 24 October 2025, against a treaty minimum of 1.75 million acre-feet per cycle.²³²⁴³⁵

3. Not boundEQL 1NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-WAT-007

   The extent of drought in the contiguous United States at 30 September 2026 is not bound. The drought map opened is dated after the close. not bound

2.5Food

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-FOO-009

   Cereal production in 2024 was 455.0 Mt in the United States, 63.7 Mt in Canada and 32.6 Mt in Mexico.¹⁰

2.6Health

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-HLT-010

   In 2025, 20.3% of Canadians, 18.4% of Americans and 8.5% of Mexicans were aged 65 or over; life expectancy in 2024 was 82.1, 78.9 and 75.3 years.⁹

2.7Biodiversity

1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-BIO-011

   In 2025 terrestrial protected areas covered 12.9% of Canada, 12.9% of the United States and 15.3% of Mexico; marine protection covered 9.2%, 19.0% and 22.6% of territorial waters.⁷

2.8Systemic

1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

   The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a dry, hot summer in which low Colorado and Rio Grande supply, heat load and grid stress coincide across member borders. §9.3

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 16United States Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (page opened reports 1990 to 2022: gross 6,343 and net 5,489 million metric tons CO2e, net 17% below 2005). EPA, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, share of total (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), and life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial protected areas, share of land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), and marine protected areas, share of territorial waters (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

3.1Where each system stood at evidence close

3.2Domain posture

Each of the twelve coupled domains is read in words, not scored. The reading states where the regional evidence points; the coupling column names the dependency that carries risk across systems and borders.

3.3Sector screens

All sixteen global sectors are screened on the same grammar as every national edition, so later editions can say what changed. The evidence column describes coverage of the baseline evidence, not the performance of the sector.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: level of water stress, freshwater withdrawal as a share of available resources (ER.H2O.FWST.ZS), and renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, share of total (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), and life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial protected areas, share of land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), and marine protected areas, share of territorial waters (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), Long-term reliability assessment (the page opened gave only a headline fragment about regions at elevated risk). NERC, Atlanta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 31NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (page opened returned no figures). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), insured catastrophe losses (the page requested returned not found). IBC, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IISD and White & Case (eds.), analyses of the first joint review of the regional trade agreement on 1 July 2026 (no extension agreed, annual reviews, agreement in force to 1 July 2036; both pages refused, taken from search summaries). IISD, Winnipeg; White & Case, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States (eds.), Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (entered into force 1 July 2020; taken from memory). Official texts, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Canada, Mexico and United States (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: exports of goods and services, share of GDP (NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS), Canada 31.3% and Mexico 39.6% in 2025, United States 11.0% in 2024. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 16United States Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (page opened reports 1990 to 2022: gross 6,343 and net 5,489 million metric tons CO2e, net 17% below 2005). EPA, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 29Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Inventario nacional de emisiones de gases y compuestos de efecto invernadero (page opened reports the 2015 inventory, 683 Mt CO2e, and is dated May 2018). INECC, Mexico City. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

4.1Risk objects

Each risk is read across the chain from hazard to consequence, with its status and evidence-quality level.

1. ReportedEQL 4RSK-NAM-CLI-001

   Cross-border wildfire and smoke season

   Driver

   heat, drought and ignition on dry fuels

   Exposure

   forest-edge communities, air quality across borders

   Vulnerability

   evacuation capacity not bound

   Capacity

   international firefighter exchange; documented²²

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT, INF, FIN

   Horizon

   annual

2. InferredEQL 3RSK-NAM-WAT-002

   Low Colorado River and Rio Grande supply in a dry year

   Driver

   low snowpack and high demand

   Exposure

   cities, irrigated farms, hydropower

   Vulnerability

   reliance on two large reservoirs; levels at the close not bound

   Capacity

   federal decision framework and treaty terms¹⁹³⁵; performance not bound

   Cascade

   WAT → ENE, FOO

   Horizon

   1–5 years

3. InferredEQL 3RSK-NAM-HLT-003

   Heat and smoke overload of health services

   Driver

   heat waves and smoke episodes

   Exposure

   older adults⁹; outdoor workers

   Vulnerability

   limited cooling; workforce not bound

   Capacity

   health system capacity not bound

   Cascade

   CLI → HLT → ENE peak

   Horizon

   seasonal

4. Expert inputEQL 2RSK-NAM-ENE-004

   Gas or grid disruption during extreme weather

   Driver

   cold or heat extreme, supply interruption or a trade rule change

   Exposure

   power, industry, heating, Mexican gas supply²⁵

   Vulnerability

   storage depth and cross-border flows not bound

   Capacity

   reliability organisation assessments exist³⁰; text not read

   Cascade

   TRD → ENE → FOO, FIN

   Horizon

   1–5 years

4.2Capability ladder

Existence is not readiness. Each of the fifteen capability functions is placed on the ladder by the strongest public evidence at the regional level, from a policy listing to performance in real events.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, share of total (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), and life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), Long-term reliability assessment (the page opened gave only a headline fragment about regions at elevated risk). NERC, Atlanta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 16United States Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (page opened reports 1990 to 2022: gross 6,343 and net 5,489 million metric tons CO2e, net 17% below 2005). EPA, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 27International Joint Commission (ed.), Mission: prevents and resolves disputes between Canada and the United States under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; three commissioners from each country. IJC, Ottawa and Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of the United States and Great Britain for Canada (eds.), Boundary Waters Treaty, 1909 (taken from memory; the commission page opened confirms the year). Treaty text, 1909. Observation year 1909. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 31NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (page opened returned no figures). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), insured catastrophe losses (the page requested returned not found). IBC, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

5.1Assumptions

Scenario SCN-NAM-DRY-01: what is assumed, and what is held constant.

Baseline

the 2026 reference state in this edition

Drivers

an extended heat wave in a dry year, with low reservoir levels and high power demand

Analogues

Colorado River decision record¹⁹; Canadian fire season 2023²¹; reservoir and drought records at the close not bound

Interventions

none modelled, the specification describes the unmitigated case

Run state

narrative specification; quantified Foundry run scheduled for Q1 2027

5.2The cascade, step by step

1. 1

   CLI → WAT

   low snowpack and flow cut reservoir inflow on shared rivers

   decision record 2026¹⁹

2. 2

   CLI → HLT

   heat and smoke raise hospital stays and deaths

   no analogue bound

3. 3

   ENE → INF

   peak cooling demand coincides with constrained hydropower and gas supply

   gas exports 2025²⁵

4. 4

   INF → all

   a grid or pipeline fault spreads across a connected system

   no analogue bound

5. 5

   HLT → FIN

   losses fall on households, insurers and budgets

   loss series not bound

6. 6

   FIN → recovery

   rebuilding slows where cover is thin

   loss series not bound

5.3The scenario as a table of steps

How the shock in scenario SCN-NAM-DRY-01 would travel through North America’s coupled systems, step by step, under the assumptions the edition states.

A teaching model of a conditional scenario under the edition’s stated assumptions: not a forecast, not a prediction and not a warning. Sources: North America 2026, scenario SCN-NAM-DRY-01 (2026); North America 2026, references (NR-CIT-1) (2026).

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject

Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.

6.2Three lenses

One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.

6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions

How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for North America. The standards are preparatory working drafts (October 2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.

6.4GCRI reading: the model card

GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology

6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays

Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.

6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 regional readiness pack

The registers that open the 2027 regional cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.

Publication dispositions

• Publish
• Hold
• Needs evidence
• Restricted
• Superseded

6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch

Instruments that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.

• IN FORCE
• ADOPTED
• SUBMITTED
• UNDER REVIEW
• PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY

6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review: science and assessments

The review behind this edition covers peer-reviewed science, regional and international assessments and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Full systematic reviews begin in Q1 2027 for each agenda item.

Review protocol

Question

What does the published evidence establish about North America’s coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity risks across its member countries?

Sources searched

peer-reviewed literature; regional and international assessments; official releases; statutory instruments

Window

releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026

Selection

sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition

Next step

systematic reviews for agenda items A-01 to A-05 in Q1 2027

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IISD and White & Case (eds.), analyses of the first joint review of the regional trade agreement on 1 July 2026 (no extension agreed, annual reviews, agreement in force to 1 July 2036; both pages refused, taken from search summaries). IISD, Winnipeg; White & Case, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of the United States and Great Britain for Canada (eds.), Boundary Waters Treaty, 1909 (taken from memory; the commission page opened confirms the year). Treaty text, 1909. Observation year 1909. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (taken from memory). IJC, Windsor. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Columbia River Treaty (taken from memory; the ministry page opened was not found). Treaty text, 1961. Observation year 1961. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Minute 323 on Colorado River arrangements (taken from memory). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States (eds.), Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (entered into force 1 July 2020; taken from memory). Official texts, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Paris Agreement under the UNFCCC (taken from memory). UNFCCC, Bonn, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Lower Colorado Basin daily reservoir levels (Lake Mead 1,038.93 ft and 6,904 thousand acre-feet; Lake Powell 3,532.42 ft and 5,982 thousand acre-feet on 1 November 2026; automatic reports not checked for errors). Reclamation, Boulder City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 26POST-CLOSE, context only: National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA (eds.), U.S. Drought Monitor statistics for the contiguous United States, map valid 27 October to 2 November 2026 (D0 72.66%, D1 49.49%, D2 26.74%, D3 9.36%, D4 1.65%; cumulative). University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Gas Market Report (latest quarterly edition at evidence close). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 2Statistics Canada (ed.), Population and demography, quarterly population estimate (page shows 41,798,407 for 1 July 2026 but was last modified 1 May 2026; figure not used). Statistics Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 3UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025 (130,911,314 inhabitants at 15 October 2025, from search summaries; the page opened showed only its title). INEGI, Aguascalientes. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 17U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source? (2023: renewables 21.4%, nuclear 18.6%, natural gas 43.1%, coal 16.2% of about 4,178 billion kWh; page updated 29 February 2024). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 18Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Provincial and territorial energy profiles: Canada (hydro 60% of 625.7 TWh in 2021, wind and solar 7%, grid intensity from 220 to 100 g CO2e per kWh between 2005 and 2022). CER, Calgary. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
28. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
29. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
30. 16United States Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (page opened reports 1990 to 2022: gross 6,343 and net 5,489 million metric tons CO2e, net 17% below 2005). EPA, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
31. 29Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Inventario nacional de emisiones de gases y compuestos de efecto invernadero (page opened reports the 2015 inventory, 683 Mt CO2e, and is dated May 2018). INECC, Mexico City. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
32. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
33. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, share of total (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), and life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
34. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
35. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
36. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), Long-term reliability assessment (the page opened gave only a headline fragment about regions at elevated risk). NERC, Atlanta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
37. 31NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (page opened returned no figures). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
38. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), insured catastrophe losses (the page requested returned not found). IBC, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
39. 32Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México (page opened; percentage of territory shown only in a chart; issued every two weeks since February 2014). CONAGUA, Mexico City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
40. 27International Joint Commission (ed.), Mission: prevents and resolves disputes between Canada and the United States under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; three commissioners from each country. IJC, Ottawa and Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

7.1Questions for the operational series

1. A-01

   How would a dry, hot summer load the Colorado and Rio Grande systems, farms, cities and the grid across member borders?

   INI-NAM-CLI-01 · compound summer stress; first output: dependency graph for the Colorado and Rio Grande basins.

2. A-02

   How much do the three power systems and the gas pipelines depend on each other in a cold or hot extreme?

   INI-NAM-ENE-02 · gas and grid resilience; first output: cross-border flow register.

3. A-03

   How do reservoir levels and treaty deliveries reach cities, farms and hydropower?

   INI-NAM-WAT-03 · shared basins; first output: basin performance note for the Colorado River.

4. A-04

   How many deaths can be attributed to heat and smoke, by member and year?

   INI-NAM-HLT-04 · heat, smoke and health; first output: attribution baseline for three members.

5. A-05

   Where do disaster losses fall between insurers, households and public budgets?

   INI-NAM-FIN-05 · protection gap; first output: peril-by-member loss table.

6. A-06

   What is the condition of habitats and how is it measured across members?

   INI-NAM-BIO-01 · workstream; first output: condition indicator note.

7. A-07

   How exposed are crop output and food trade to concurrent drought, heat and trade shocks?

   To be admitted in Q1 2027; first output: scoping note.

8. A-08

   Which capabilities have been tested in real events, and which are only documented?

   Regional capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Six initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 regional portfolio. They are programme objects, no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

7.3The pathway

The North America regional pathway is the route through which the Nexus operating system will read North America as one region from 2027. At baseline the pathway is designed and its hubs are named in the series registry; its working arrangements are set from Q1 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next, nothing more.

1. 01

   National Foundries

   continuous national evidence environments

   PREPARED · first sealed cuts in Q1 2027

2. 02

   National Models and Portfolios

   each country as a system of systems

   CANADA v0 ISSUED · 25 further national baselines

3. 03

   Quarterly national reports

   State & Agenda, Evidence, Stress Test, Annual

   BASELINE STAGE · Q1 2027 opens the series

4. 04

   Regional aggregation

   North America as one of ten regional clusters

   THIS EDITION · annual regional cut from 2027

5. 05

   Global sector and strategic models

   GS-01…15 · SR-01…14 · XT-01…20

   49 PLANNED · pilots: GS-01, SR-01, XT-01

6. 06

   Universe

   annual proving environment

   CANDIDATE MISSION · global mandate in 2027

7. 07

   Global Report

   this series

   BASELINE ISSUED · 2027 annual edition

8. 08

   Evidence and correction

   one graph, many projections

   OPEN · first federation-wide correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the regional candidate mission

1. 01

   Mandate

2. 02

   Core Build · 1 month

3. 03

   Action · 1 week

4. 04

   Evidence seal

5. 05

   Portfolio correction

6. 06

   Next mandate

Mission

ID

MSN-NAM-2027-01 · Rivers, heat and grid Universe mission

Role spine

Leadership sponsor (NLC) · Institutional anchor (NNC) · Mission lead (NWG)

Receiving actors

to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

7.6Feeds and signal register

Escalation routes

• none · keep monitoring
• research question
• project
• risk object
• quarterly publication
• signal report

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Lower Colorado Basin daily reservoir levels (Lake Mead 1,038.93 ft and 6,904 thousand acre-feet; Lake Powell 3,532.42 ft and 5,982 thousand acre-feet on 1 November 2026; automatic reports not checked for errors). Reclamation, Boulder City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 26POST-CLOSE, context only: National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA (eds.), U.S. Drought Monitor statistics for the contiguous United States, map valid 27 October to 2 November 2026 (D0 72.66%, D1 49.49%, D2 26.74%, D3 9.36%, D4 1.65%; cumulative). University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

8.1Member countries: the baseline regional chapter

The three member countries named in the series registry, read side by side on the same indicators. No union or bloc shares the region code in the registry, so there is no reference group in this edition.

8.2Shared basins and grids: the baseline regional chapter

Shared basins, grids and gas supply carry risk across member borders. This chapter names each system, the members involved and the evidence read at baseline. Rows without a source are designed empty states.

8.3Hub list: the baseline regional chapter

The hubs the series registry names for this region and for its member countries. The list is read from the registry, so a change there changes this page.

Registry

Regional hubs

Toronto · Washington

Desks with a remit

GCRI · GRF · GRX

Registry record

NR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0

What a hub does in this series

• Hub terms of reference are not set at baseline
• Hub contact points are not named at baseline
• The registry names the hubs and the desks with a remit; working arrangements follow from Q1 2027

8.4Regional pathway: the baseline regional chapter

The regional pathway is the route through which the series will read North America as one region from 2027. This page states what exists today and what comes next. It does not describe any body that has not been constituted.

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Canada, Mexico and United States (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: level of water stress, freshwater withdrawal as a share of available resources (ER.H2O.FWST.ZS), and renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 29Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Inventario nacional de emisiones de gases y compuestos de efecto invernadero (page opened reports the 2015 inventory, 683 Mt CO2e, and is dated May 2018). INECC, Mexico City. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Minute 323 on Colorado River arrangements (taken from memory). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 27International Joint Commission (ed.), Mission: prevents and resolves disputes between Canada and the United States under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; three commissioners from each country. IJC, Ottawa and Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of the United States and Great Britain for Canada (eds.), Boundary Waters Treaty, 1909 (taken from memory; the commission page opened confirms the year). Treaty text, 1909. Observation year 1909. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (taken from memory). IJC, Windsor. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Columbia River Treaty (taken from memory; the ministry page opened was not found). Treaty text, 1961. Observation year 1961. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 18Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Provincial and territorial energy profiles: Canada (hydro 60% of 625.7 TWh in 2021, wind and solar 7%, grid intensity from 220 to 100 g CO2e per kWh between 2005 and 2022). CER, Calgary. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), Long-term reliability assessment (the page opened gave only a headline fragment about regions at elevated risk). NERC, Atlanta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IISD and White & Case (eds.), analyses of the first joint review of the regional trade agreement on 1 July 2026 (no extension agreed, annual reviews, agreement in force to 1 July 2036; both pages refused, taken from search summaries). IISD, Winnipeg; White & Case, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

A.1Methods

The regional baseline uses published values and four simple derivations. Each is shown in full so that any reader can reproduce it.

A.2Model card: Regional System Model v0

Model ID

MDL-NAM-REGIONAL · v0.1

Purpose

represent North America as coupled water, energy, food, health and biodiversity systems across member countries, with forcing and transmission layers

Family

graph-based system of systems

Inputs

the cited sources of this edition; no proprietary data

Method

expert-specified coupling strengths (STRONG · MODERATE · WEAK) from assessments and analogue events

Validation

none yet, first validation against federation evidence in 2027

Uncertainty

qualitative; strengths are hypotheses, not measurements

Domain of validity

regional scale; not for national, basin or asset-level use

Reproducibility

strength table and sources published in this edition

A.3The baseline evidence cut

Every Nexus edition is published from a frozen evidence cut. The regional baseline cut is documentary: it pins the exact edition of every source cited. Federation cuts begin with the first national Foundry cuts in 2027.

Cut ID

NQ-REG-NAM-2026-Q0-1

Type

baseline documentary cut

Resolution policy

pinned · as of 30 September 2026

Sources pinned

50 cited sources, each at the edition and access date in the references

Model runs

none at baseline, analytical values are stated with their method

Digest

computed at freeze and recorded in the publication record

Supersedes

nothing, first cut of the series

Superseded by

NQ-REG-NAM-2027-Q1-1 at the Q1 2027 close

Lineage

1. 01

   source edition

2. 02

   pinned citation

3. 03

   finding

4. 04

   page

5. 05

   publication record

A.4Evidence age and coverage

A 2026 edition rests on evidence observed in many different years. This page shows each time base, so that no single year label hides older evidence.

A.5Evidence cards: two anchor sources

Evidence cards to follow in Q1 2027

• US and Mexican greenhouse gas inventories¹⁶²⁹ : latest year on one basis
• Cross-border flow records¹⁸³⁰ : gas and power flows
• IBWC weekly data sheet²³ : new-cycle deliveries
• Reports Foundational Edition⁴⁷ and the global baseline⁴⁸ : method and peer distributions
• National baseline editions for Canada and the United States⁴⁹ : member-level detail

A.6Publication acceptance record

Editorial self-check at evidence close. Every applicable item carries a disposition; the remaining items are review, approval and deposit.

A.7Status words

A.8How the edition is made, released and corrected

Every edition is built from a sealed evidence cut, reviewed under three keys, signed and deposited before any site shows it as published; corrections go to Nexus Standards as change proposals and feed the next cut.

A teaching model of the process, not a forecast and not a record of any run; dates and counts on this page come from the programme record. Sources: Reports governance at GCRI Canada (2026); Zenodo, repository of record for Reports deposits (2026).

Lifecycle, one state at a time: Draft, Computed, Evidence bound, Reviewed, Approved for release, Published, Corrected, Superseded. This edition is a draft.

A.9Glossary and abbreviations

A.10Technical annex

A.1 · indicator definition: emissions excluding land use

Construct

annual greenhouse gas emissions without land use, land-use change and forestry

Unit

Mt CO₂e

Scope

calendar year

Source

World Bank World Development Indicators total greenhouse gas emissions series⁶

Revision

revised by the issuer; not tracked here

Known limits

differs from national inventories, which follow their own reporting rules¹⁴¹⁶

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 16United States Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (page opened reports 1990 to 2022: gross 6,343 and net 5,489 million metric tons CO2e, net 17% below 2005). EPA, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 29Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Inventario nacional de emisiones de gases y compuestos de efecto invernadero (page opened reports the 2015 inventory, 683 Mt CO2e, and is dated May 2018). INECC, Mexico City. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), insured catastrophe losses (the page requested returned not found). IBC, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 31NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (page opened returned no figures). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 32Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México (page opened; percentage of territory shown only in a chart; issued every two weeks since February 2014). CONAGUA, Mexico City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 18Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Provincial and territorial energy profiles: Canada (hydro 60% of 625.7 TWh in 2021, wind and solar 7%, grid intensity from 220 to 100 g CO2e per kWh between 2005 and 2022). CER, Calgary. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 17U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source? (2023: renewables 21.4%, nuclear 18.6%, natural gas 43.1%, coal 16.2% of about 4,178 billion kWh; page updated 29 February 2024). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 3UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025 (130,911,314 inhabitants at 15 October 2025, from search summaries; the page opened showed only its title). INEGI, Aguascalientes. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 2Statistics Canada (ed.), Population and demography, quarterly population estimate (page shows 41,798,407 for 1 July 2026 but was last modified 1 May 2026; figure not used). Statistics Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), Long-term reliability assessment (the page opened gave only a headline fragment about regions at elevated risk). NERC, Atlanta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (taken from memory). IJC, Windsor. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Columbia River Treaty (taken from memory; the ministry page opened was not found). Treaty text, 1961. Observation year 1961. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used by the generator as the structural base; not read by the author of this spec). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Editions 2026 for Canada and the United States (draft packs; the Mexico edition is in preparation). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

B.1The indicator set

B.2Regional source register

The governed source set behind this edition. Each source keeps its authority, coverage, cadence and role; categories describe origin, not truth.

Domains bound by the register

• WAT
• ENE
• FOO
• HLT
• BIO
• CLI
• INF
• FIN
• TRD
• MIN

B.3Regional reading: North America by member country

Map plates for every member country follow in Q2 2027, when boundary sources and public-safe resolutions are bound. This page gives the regional reading in table form for the 3 member countries named in the series registry.

Population, 2025¹

B.4Atlas card: Colorado River basin

• basin
• shared river system
• reservoirs and irrigation
• members: United States, Mexico

Systems in view

water, energy and food

Defining instruments

the 1944 treaty³⁵; IBWC Minute 323³⁹; the 2026 decision record¹⁹

Couplings

CLI → WAT → ENE; WAT → FOO

Capability evidence

federal operating guidelines for 2027 and 2028 issued¹⁹; performance not bound

Gaps

Mexican deliveries under the new cycle, snowpack and basin-state positions

Agenda items

A-03

B.5North America system card

The card through which North America appears in the global edition and in the sector series. It summarises; it does not rank.

Context

Archetype

three interlinked members sharing basins, grids and pipelines

Population

515.4 million residents in 2025¹

Trade

US gas pipeline exports to Mexico 2.42 trillion ft³ in 2025²⁵

Hazard

Canadian wildfire 14.6 million ha in 2023²¹

B.6Licences

B.7Formats and provenance

Provenance

Edition pack

The edition’s content pack (JSON), from which the print and web editions are built

Evidence cut

NQ-REG-NAM-2026-Q0-1, closed 30 September 2026

Reproducibility

sourced values cited; analytical values reproducible from stated parameters

Self-check

14 of 23 at evidence close; a fail on any item blocks release

Review

five passes scheduled before release (in Annex C)

Publisher of record

GCRI for the Nexus Consortium

Corrections

Registry correction pathway; upheld corrections are published as notices with a new version

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
2. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
3. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
4. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
5. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
6. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
7. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, share of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
8. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita, kg of oil equivalent (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE), Canada 7,119, Mexico 1,498 and United States 6,454. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
9. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: level of water stress, freshwater withdrawal as a share of available resources (ER.H2O.FWST.ZS), and renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
10. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial protected areas, share of land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), and marine protected areas, share of territorial waters (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
11. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
12. 16United States Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (page opened reports 1990 to 2022: gross 6,343 and net 5,489 million metric tons CO2e, net 17% below 2005). EPA, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
13. 29Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Inventario nacional de emisiones de gases y compuestos de efecto invernadero (page opened reports the 2015 inventory, 683 Mt CO2e, and is dated May 2018). INECC, Mexico City. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
14. 18Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Provincial and territorial energy profiles: Canada (hydro 60% of 625.7 TWh in 2021, wind and solar 7%, grid intensity from 220 to 100 g CO2e per kWh between 2005 and 2022). CER, Calgary. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
15. 31NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (page opened returned no figures). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
16. 3UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025 (130,911,314 inhabitants at 15 October 2025, from search summaries; the page opened showed only its title). INEGI, Aguascalientes. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
17. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Canada, Mexico and United States (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
18. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, share of total (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), and life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
19. 15Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions inventory page: National Inventory Report 1990 to 2024, submitted in 2026 (page opened gave no totals). Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
20. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
21. 26POST-CLOSE, context only: National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA (eds.), U.S. Drought Monitor statistics for the contiguous United States, map valid 27 October to 2 November 2026 (D0 72.66%, D1 49.49%, D2 26.74%, D3 9.36%, D4 1.65%; cumulative). University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
22. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
23. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
24. 27International Joint Commission (ed.), Mission: prevents and resolves disputes between Canada and the United States under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; three commissioners from each country. IJC, Ottawa and Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
25. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
26. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
27. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Minute 323 on Colorado River arrangements (taken from memory). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

C.150 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
2. 2Statistics Canada (ed.), Population and demography, quarterly population estimate (page shows 41,798,407 for 1 July 2026 but was last modified 1 May 2026; figure not used). Statistics Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
3. 3UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025 (130,911,314 inhabitants at 15 October 2025, from search summaries; the page opened showed only its title). INEGI, Aguascalientes. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
4. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Canada, Mexico and United States (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 8
5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
7. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial protected areas, share of land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), and marine protected areas, share of territorial waters (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3
8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: level of water stress, freshwater withdrawal as a share of available resources (ER.H2O.FWST.ZS), and renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, share of total (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), and life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
11. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, share of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita, kg of oil equivalent (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE), Canada 7,119, Mexico 1,498 and United States 6,454. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: exports of goods and services, share of GDP (NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS), Canada 31.3% and Mexico 39.6% in 2025, United States 11.0% in 2024. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
14. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
15. 15Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions inventory page: National Inventory Report 1990 to 2024, submitted in 2026 (page opened gave no totals). Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
16. 16United States Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (page opened reports 1990 to 2022: gross 6,343 and net 5,489 million metric tons CO2e, net 17% below 2005). EPA, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
17. 17U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source? (2023: renewables 21.4%, nuclear 18.6%, natural gas 43.1%, coal 16.2% of about 4,178 billion kWh; page updated 29 February 2024). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
18. 18Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Provincial and territorial energy profiles: Canada (hydro 60% of 625.7 TWh in 2021, wind and solar 7%, grid intensity from 220 to 100 g CO2e per kWh between 2005 and 2022). CER, Calgary. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
19. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
20. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Lower Colorado Basin daily reservoir levels (Lake Mead 1,038.93 ft and 6,904 thousand acre-feet; Lake Powell 3,532.42 ft and 5,982 thousand acre-feet on 1 November 2026; automatic reports not checked for errors). Reclamation, Boulder City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7
21. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
22. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
23. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
25. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
26. 26POST-CLOSE, context only: National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA (eds.), U.S. Drought Monitor statistics for the contiguous United States, map valid 27 October to 2 November 2026 (D0 72.66%, D1 49.49%, D2 26.74%, D3 9.36%, D4 1.65%; cumulative). University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7
27. 27International Joint Commission (ed.), Mission: prevents and resolves disputes between Canada and the United States under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; three commissioners from each country. IJC, Ottawa and Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IISD and White & Case (eds.), analyses of the first joint review of the regional trade agreement on 1 July 2026 (no extension agreed, annual reviews, agreement in force to 1 July 2036; both pages refused, taken from search summaries). IISD, Winnipeg; White & Case, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
29. 29Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Inventario nacional de emisiones de gases y compuestos de efecto invernadero (page opened reports the 2015 inventory, 683 Mt CO2e, and is dated May 2018). INECC, Mexico City. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), Long-term reliability assessment (the page opened gave only a headline fragment about regions at elevated risk). NERC, Atlanta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
31. 31NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (page opened returned no figures). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
32. 32Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México (page opened; percentage of territory shown only in a chart; issued every two weeks since February 2014). CONAGUA, Mexico City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), insured catastrophe losses (the page requested returned not found). IBC, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States (eds.), Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (entered into force 1 July 2020; taken from memory). Official texts, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of the United States and Great Britain for Canada (eds.), Boundary Waters Treaty, 1909 (taken from memory; the commission page opened confirms the year). Treaty text, 1909. Observation year 1909. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (taken from memory). IJC, Windsor. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Columbia River Treaty (taken from memory; the ministry page opened was not found). Treaty text, 1961. Observation year 1961. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Minute 323 on Colorado River arrangements (taken from memory). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Gas Market Report (latest quarterly edition at evidence close). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used by the generator as the structural base; not read by the author of this spec). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Editions 2026 for Canada and the United States (draft packs; the Mexico edition is in preparation). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Paris Agreement under the UNFCCC (taken from memory). UNFCCC, Bonn, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

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