Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1North America’s risk travels through shared rivers, grids and pipelines
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Dry, hot summer across the Colorado and Rio Grande basins and the southern grids
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 50 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.150 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: Population, total (SP.POP.TOTL), Canada, Mexico and United States, retrieved through the World Bank indicators interface (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  2. 2Statistics Canada (ed.), Population and demography, quarterly population estimate (page shows 41,798,407 for 1 July 2026 but was last modified 1 May 2026; figure not used). Statistics Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  3. 3UNVERIFIED, not opened: Instituto Nacional de Estadística y Geografía (ed.), Encuesta Intercensal 2025 (130,911,314 inhabitants at 15 October 2025, from search summaries; the page opened showed only its title). INEGI, Aguascalientes. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  4. 4DATA VINTAGE AFTER CLOSE: World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: GDP, current US$ (NY.GDP.MKTP.CD), Canada, Mexico and United States (last updated 2026-10-08). World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 8
  5. 5World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: electricity production from oil, gas and coal, nuclear and hydroelectric sources, share of total (EG.ELC.FOSL.ZS, EG.ELC.NUCL.ZS, EG.ELC.HYRO.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  6. 6World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: total greenhouse gas emissions excluding LULUCF, Mt CO2e (EN.GHG.ALL.MT.CE.AR5), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 6, chapter 8
  7. 7World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: terrestrial protected areas, share of land area (ER.LND.PTLD.ZS), and marine protected areas, share of territorial waters (ER.MRN.PTMR.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3
  8. 8World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: level of water stress, freshwater withdrawal as a share of available resources (ER.H2O.FWST.ZS), and renewable internal freshwater resources per capita (ER.H2O.INTR.PC), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 8
  9. 9World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: population aged 65 and above, share of total (SP.POP.65UP.TO.ZS), and life expectancy at birth (SP.DYN.LE00.IN), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  10. 10World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: cereal production, metric tons (AG.PRD.CREL.MT), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  11. 11World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: forest area, share of land area (AG.LND.FRST.ZS), Canada, Mexico and United States. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  12. 12World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: energy use per capita, kg of oil equivalent (EG.USE.PCAP.KG.OE), Canada 7,119, Mexico 1,498 and United States 6,454. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  13. 13World Bank (ed.), World Development Indicators: exports of goods and services, share of GDP (NE.EXP.GNFS.ZS), Canada 31.3% and Mexico 39.6% in 2025, United States 11.0% in 2024. World Bank, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3
  14. 14Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions (Canadian Environmental Sustainability Indicators): 685 Mt CO2 eq in 2024, 10.3% below 2005 and 0.3% below 2023. Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  15. 15Environment and Climate Change Canada (ed.), Greenhouse gas emissions inventory page: National Inventory Report 1990 to 2024, submitted in 2026 (page opened gave no totals). Government of Canada, Gatineau. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  16. 16United States Environmental Protection Agency (ed.), Inventory of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions and sinks (page opened reports 1990 to 2022: gross 6,343 and net 5,489 million metric tons CO2e, net 17% below 2005). EPA, Washington DC. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  17. 17U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), What is U.S. electricity generation by energy source? (2023: renewables 21.4%, nuclear 18.6%, natural gas 43.1%, coal 16.2% of about 4,178 billion kWh; page updated 29 February 2024). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6
  18. 18Canada Energy Regulator (ed.), Provincial and territorial energy profiles: Canada (hydro 60% of 625.7 TWh in 2021, wind and solar 7%, grid intensity from 220 to 100 g CO2e per kWh between 2005 and 2022). CER, Calgary. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Post-2026 Colorado River reservoir operations (page updated 3 September 2026: draft EIS 9 January 2026, final EIS 31 July 2026, record of decision 21 August 2026, 2007 interim guidelines and 2019 drought contingency plans expiring at the end of 2026). Reclamation, Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20POST-CLOSE, context only: U.S. Bureau of Reclamation (ed.), Lower Colorado Basin daily reservoir levels (Lake Mead 1,038.93 ft and 6,904 thousand acre-feet; Lake Powell 3,532.42 ft and 5,982 thousand acre-feet on 1 November 2026; automatic reports not checked for errors). Reclamation, Boulder City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7
  21. 21Natural Resources Canada (ed.), Forest fires: the 2023 season (more than 14.6 million hectares, more than 6,800 fires, more than 230,000 evacuations; typical year more than 2.1 million hectares). Government of Canada, Ottawa. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  22. 22UNVERIFIED, not opened: Canadian Interagency Forest Fire Centre (ed.), 2025 national season statistics (more than 7.5 million hectares by mid-August, second-largest area in the federal record; taken from search summaries because the statistics page was refused). CIFFC, Winnipeg. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  23. 23International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Mexico deliveries of Rio Grande water (page opened states the 350,000 acre-feet a year minimum, 1,750,000 acre-feet per five-year cycle and a cycle start of 25 October 2020; delivery graphs not readable). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  24. 24UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), release on the cycle of 25 October 2020 to 24 October 2025 (884,861 acre-feet delivered, from search summaries). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  25. 25U.S. Energy Information Administration (ed.), U.S. natural gas pipeline exports by country (Mexico 2,422,839 and Canada 1,033,487 million cubic feet in 2025). EIA, Washington DC. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 8
  26. 26POST-CLOSE, context only: National Drought Mitigation Center, USDA and NOAA (eds.), U.S. Drought Monitor statistics for the contiguous United States, map valid 27 October to 2 November 2026 (D0 72.66%, D1 49.49%, D2 26.74%, D3 9.36%, D4 1.65%; cumulative). University of Nebraska-Lincoln. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 7
  27. 27International Joint Commission (ed.), Mission: prevents and resolves disputes between Canada and the United States under the Boundary Waters Treaty of 1909; three commissioners from each country. IJC, Ottawa and Washington DC. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: IISD and White & Case (eds.), analyses of the first joint review of the regional trade agreement on 1 July 2026 (no extension agreed, annual reviews, agreement in force to 1 July 2036; both pages refused, taken from search summaries). IISD, Winnipeg; White & Case, New York. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  29. 29Instituto Nacional de Ecología y Cambio Climático (ed.), Inventario nacional de emisiones de gases y compuestos de efecto invernadero (page opened reports the 2015 inventory, 683 Mt CO2e, and is dated May 2018). INECC, Mexico City. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: North American Electric Reliability Corporation (ed.), Long-term reliability assessment (the page opened gave only a headline fragment about regions at elevated risk). NERC, Atlanta. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  31. 31NOAA National Centers for Environmental Information (ed.), U.S. billion-dollar weather and climate disasters (page opened returned no figures). NOAA NCEI, Asheville. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32Servicio Meteorológico Nacional, Comisión Nacional del Agua (eds.), Monitor de Sequía en México (page opened; percentage of territory shown only in a chart; issued every two weeks since February 2014). CONAGUA, Mexico City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Bureau of Canada (ed.), insured catastrophe losses (the page requested returned not found). IBC, Toronto. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada, Mexico and the United States (eds.), Agreement between the United States of America, the United Mexican States and Canada (entered into force 1 July 2020; taken from memory). Official texts, 2020. Observation year 2020. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Mexico and the United States (eds.), Treaty on the utilisation of waters of the Colorado and Tijuana Rivers and of the Rio Grande, 1944 (taken from memory). Treaty text, 1944. Observation year 1944. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of the United States and Great Britain for Canada (eds.), Boundary Waters Treaty, 1909 (taken from memory; the commission page opened confirms the year). Treaty text, 1909. Observation year 1909. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Great Lakes Water Quality Agreement (taken from memory). IJC, Windsor. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Governments of Canada and the United States (eds.), Columbia River Treaty (taken from memory; the ministry page opened was not found). Treaty text, 1961. Observation year 1961. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Boundary and Water Commission (ed.), Minute 323 on Colorado River arrangements (taken from memory). IBWC, El Paso. Observation year 2017. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: H. Lee and J. Romero (eds.), Climate Change 2023: Synthesis Report. Contribution of Working Groups I, II and III to the Sixth Assessment Report of the IPCC. IPCC, Geneva, 2023. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: P. D. McElwee, P. A. Harrison, T. L. van Huysen et al. (eds.), Thematic Assessment Report on the Interlinkages among Biodiversity, Water, Food and Health. IPBES secretariat, Bonn, 2024. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: J. Zscheischler, S. Westra, B. J. J. M. van den Hurk et al., “Future climate risk from compound events,” Nature Climate Change, vol. 8, pp. 469–477, 2018. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015–2030. UNDRR, Geneva, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Convention on Biological Diversity (ed.), Kunming-Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework, Decision 15/4. CBD Secretariat, Montreal, 2022. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Energy Agency (ed.), Gas Market Report (latest quarterly edition at evidence close). IEA, Paris. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: International Renewable Energy Agency (ed.), Renewable Capacity Statistics 2026. IRENA, Abu Dhabi. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Reports: The Foundational Edition, Volumes I and II. Reports series, Edition 2026–2030, V1.0. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI) for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  48. 48UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Global Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition (draft pack used by the generator as the structural base; not read by the author of this spec). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  49. 49UNVERIFIED, not opened: S. Valadbaygi (ed.), Baseline Editions 2026 for Canada and the United States (draft packs; the Mexico edition is in preparation). GCRI for the Nexus Consortium, Toronto, 2026. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  50. 50UNVERIFIED, not opened: United Nations (ed.), Paris Agreement under the UNFCCC (taken from memory). UNFCCC, Bonn, 2015. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
North America Regional Systems Risk & Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Edition 2026–2030
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 regional edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-REGIONAL-NAM-2027-Q1-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
REG-NAMNR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-REG-NAM-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

ORCID
Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

Find and follow

Search the open indexes for North America; software is cited by its SWHID from Software Heritage, and a quantified scenario run is preregistered on OSF before it is run. Annotation is your choice: Hypothesis opens this page in its own viewer.

Mirrors and harvest

The DOI is canonical. At release each signed bundle is also given an IPFS content identifier and a bloxberg anchor as mirrors; both are listed in the record once they exist. Zenodo exposes every record over OAI-PMH, and reviews and endorsements can arrive through COAR Notify where the repository supports it.

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. REG-NAM edition Reports North America 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; REG-NAM is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In North America Regional Systems Risk and Resilience Report 2026: Baseline Edition, The State of North America’s Interdependent Systems. (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-REGIONAL-NAM-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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