- Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability 2026
- Executive summary
Executive summary
The edition on a few pages: the abstract, the key messages, the headline finding and what each steward reads in it.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Protection gaps are shared risk
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Large insured loss that meets soft pricing and thin backstops
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
S.1Abstract
Insurance moves loss from those who suffer it to those who can pool it. A protection gap is the part that stays with the sufferer. For 2025, four published estimates put global insured natural catastrophe losses between USD 107 billion and USD 129 billion and economic losses between USD 220 billion and USD 296 billion1234. The uninsured share of those losses is put at 51% by Aon, a record low, and at 56% by Gallagher Re34. The low share reflects losses that were concentrated in the United States3. Swiss Re reports that secondary perils made up 92% of insured losses and that insured losses grow 5% to 7% a year in real terms1. In Asia-Pacific, Munich Re puts overall losses at about USD 73 billion and insured losses at USD 9 billion2. Availability is also changing. A US Treasury study of 246 million policies found nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes12. The California FAIR Plan held 698,307 policies and USD 773 billion of exposure in September 20268. The US flood programme is authorised only to 11 December 202610. This baseline reads these facts as mechanisms, not as a list. It rates no insurer, ranks no country and recommends no policy.
S.2Key messages
Six readings that frame the insurance and protection gaps baseline, and the eight questions this edition answers, each with its status and source.
Yes: rising exposure, secondary perils and low take-up recur across markets.125
Do protection gaps have common causes?Reported
Through nonrenewal, residual markets and short-dated public schemes.891012
How do gaps spread?Reported
Between 51% and 56% of 2025 economic losses, by two estimates.34
How large is the gap?Reported
No: national resilience ran from about 5% to above 80% in 2023.5
Is the gap the same everywhere?Reported
In high-risk US ZIP Codes nonrenewals were higher, 2018 to 2022.12
Is cover getting harder to keep?Reported
In part, and on different terms and time limits.10161848
Do public schemes fill the gap?Reported
Reinsurance rates fell 14.7% at January 2026 while loss trends rose.12
What do prices say?Reported
A large insured loss that meets soft pricing and thin backstops. SCN-SR06-LOSS-01
What will 2027 test first?Expert input
S.3Headline finding
ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002
The uninsured share of 2025 economic losses is put at 51% by Aon, a record low, and at 56%, or USD 167 billion, by Gallagher Re. Aon links the low share to losses concentrated in the United States.
| Item | Bar, scaled to the largest value | Value |
|---|---|---|
| Aon, record low | 51 | |
| Gallagher Re | 56 |
Sources: Aon3; Gallagher Re4. Scope differs; the two values are not averaged.
A low global share does not mean low gaps everywhere. Aon ties it to losses concentrated in a market with high take-up, and Munich Re shows only USD 9 billion insured of about USD 73 billion in Asia-Pacific32.
S.4At a glance
S.5What each steward reads in it
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading protection gaps as shared risk.
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people a protection gap arrives as a refused renewal, a flood claim that is not covered or a repair bill with no payout.
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Loss trends are rising, reinsurance prices fell at January 2026 renewals, and several public schemes run on short terms.
NEXUS
Synthesis
Protection gaps are well described as loss totals and thinly measured as a system.
S.6What this edition is, and is not
What this edition is
A baseline: the 2026 state of the world’s insurance markets, protection gaps and insurability limits and the couplings through which it carries risk into other systems. It synthesises published evidence and ranks no country, company or asset.
What it is not
Not an insurer rating, a solvency opinion, a pricing guide, an assessment of any insurer, reinsurer, scheme or government, or advice to buy or sell any policy. Underwriting, supervision and public backstops rest with insurers, supervisors and governments.
What comes next
National, regional and sector evidence feeds the 2027 insurance and protection gaps edition through the federation. Each edition reports what changed against this baseline: observations, source revisions, method changes, scenario updates and corrections.
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5Artemis (ed.), report of the Swiss Re Institute sigma resilience index published in July 2024 (global protection gap USD 1.83 trillion in 2023; natural catastrophe gap USD 385 billion premium equivalent; natural catastrophe resilience 25.7%; United States 39%; national values from about 5% to above 80%). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Flood Re (ed.), About us (reinsurance scheme for affordable flood cover in home insurance; planned to run until 2039). Flood Re, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ed.), Cyclone Reinsurance Pool (commenced 1 July 2022; annually reinstated government guarantee of 10 billion, stated as dollars and read here as Australian dollars; mitigation discounts; cost-neutral to government over the longer term). ARPC, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48CCRIF SPC (ed.), CCRIF in a Snapshot, brief revised April 2025 (78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025; 30 members as of June 2024). The PDF was opened and its text read. CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back