Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

References and record

Every source the edition rests on, the publication record, the corrections log and the open record.

15 min read0 figures1 table0 notesNR-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Protection gaps are shared risk
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Large insured loss that meets soft pricing and thin backstops
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
    1. C.1 48 sources
    2. C.2 Publication record
    3. C.3 Corrections log
    4. C.4 Open record
    5. C.5 Where this edition sits among the six pillars
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

C.148 sources

NR-CIT-1, editor first. A DOI is linked where the source has one; Nexus records carry a UNI once the catalogue allocates it (NS-1).

  1. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  2. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 5, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  3. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7
  4. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  5. 5Artemis (ed.), report of the Swiss Re Institute sigma resilience index published in July 2024 (global protection gap USD 1.83 trillion in 2023; natural catastrophe gap USD 385 billion premium equivalent; natural catastrophe resilience 25.7%; United States 39%; national values from about 5% to above 80%). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 6
  6. 6Risk and Insurance (ed.), report of Swiss Re Institute, World insurance in 2026: shock absorbers in a fragmenting world, July 2026 (real premium growth 3.9% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  7. 7Artemis (ed.), report of Swiss Re Institute insurance market outlook, July 2025 (inflation-adjusted natural catastrophe exposure growth of 5% to 7% a year, faster than premiums). The outlook itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 6, chapter 8
  8. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 7, chapter 8
  9. 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  10. 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  11. 11FEMA (ed.), FloodSmart (most homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage; almost one third of NFIP claims come from outside high-risk flood areas, stated as 29%). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 8
  12. 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  13. 13EIOPA (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes (30 European countries; insurance coverage and economic loss data from 1980 to 2024; page updated December 2025). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  14. 14EIOPA and ECB (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management (publication page; 18 December 2024; proposes an EU public-private reinsurance scheme and an EU fund for public disaster financing). EIOPA, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  15. 15European Central Bank and Banque de France (eds.), press release on the ECB and EIOPA proposal for a European approach to natural catastrophes (18 December 2024; page updated 24 September 2026). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  16. 16Flood Re (ed.), About us (reinsurance scheme for affordable flood cover in home insurance; planned to run until 2039). Flood Re, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 4, chapter 6
  17. 17POST-CLOSE, context only: CCRIF SPC (ed.), About us (40 members; 83 payouts and about USD 500 million paid from June 2007 to October 2026; eight parametric products). CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  18. 18Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ed.), Cyclone Reinsurance Pool (commenced 1 July 2022; annually reinstated government guarantee of 10 billion, stated as dollars and read here as Australian dollars; mitigation discounts; cost-neutral to government over the longer term). ARPC, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  19. 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 1, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  20. 20UNEP Finance Initiative (ed.), Principles for Sustainable Insurance (launched 2012; close to 300 members). United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  21. 21IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). ISSB, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  22. 22EIOPA (ed.), Solvency II (Directive (EU) 2025/2 amends the framework; new rules apply from 30 January 2027). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6, chapter 8
  23. 23POST-CLOSE, context only: National Association of Insurance Commissioners (ed.), Homeowners Insurance (most mortgage lenders require homeowners coverage; Homeowners Market Data Call meetings of 14 and 16 October 2026 and a joint meeting set for 16 November 2026). NAIC, Kansas City. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 8
  24. 24USDA Risk Management Agency (ed.), About RMA (created 1996; supports the private insurers that sell federal crop insurance). US Department of Agriculture, Washington. Observation year 1996. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  25. 25Global Shield against Climate Risks (ed.), About (a financing structure for pre-arranged finance against disasters; Solutions Platform, Financing Facility and V20 multi-donor fund). Global Shield Secretariat. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  26. 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  27. 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; no figure used; the IPCC page returned an access error. Cambridge University Press. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6, chapter 8
  28. 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the monitoring host was not reachable. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  29. 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAIS (ed.), Insurance Core Principles, Standards, Guidance and Assessment Methodology, adopted November 2019, cited from memory. International Association of Insurance Supervisors, Basel. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  30. 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAIS (ed.), Application Paper on the Supervision of Climate-related Risks in the Insurance Sector, May 2021, cited from memory. International Association of Insurance Supervisors, Basel. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  31. 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  32. 32UNVERIFIED, not opened: Pool Re (ed.), terrorism reinsurance pool of the United Kingdom, cited from memory; no figure used; the Pool Re page returned an access error. Pool Reinsurance Company, London. Observation year 1993. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  33. 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002, Public Law 107-297, cited from memory; no figure used. United States Congress, Washington. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  34. 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, Title XIII of the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968, cited from memory; no figure used. United States Congress, Washington. Observation year 1968. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  35. 35UNVERIFIED, not opened: Insurance Development Forum (ed.), public-private partnership of the insurance industry, the United Nations and multilateral bodies, cited from memory; the page returned no content and no figure is used. Observation year 2016. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  36. 36UNVERIFIED, not opened: African Risk Capacity (ed.), African Union specialised agency for parametric drought, flood and cyclone cover, cited from memory; no figure used. African Risk Capacity, Johannesburg. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.
  37. 37UNVERIFIED, not opened: World Bank (ed.), Disaster Risk Finance and Insurance, topic page, cited from memory; the page returned navigation only and no figure is used. World Bank, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4
  38. 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Arrow, K.J., Uncertainty and the welfare economics of medical care, American Economic Review 53(5), 941 to 973, 1963, cited from memory. Observation year 1963. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6
  39. 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Akerlof, G.A., The market for lemons: quality uncertainty and the market mechanism, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3), 488 to 500, 1970, cited from memory. Observation year 1970. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  40. 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rothschild, M. and Stiglitz, J., Equilibrium in competitive insurance markets: an essay on the economics of imperfect information, Quarterly Journal of Economics 90(4), 629 to 649, 1976, cited from memory. Observation year 1976. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6, chapter 8
  41. 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kunreuther, H. and Pauly, M., Neglecting disaster: why don’t people insure against large losses?, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 28(1), 5 to 21, 2004, cited from memory. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 3, chapter 6
  42. 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kousky, C. and Cooke, R., Explaining the failure to insure catastrophic risks, Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 37, 206 to 227, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  43. 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Froot, K.A., The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination, Journal of Financial Economics 60, 529 to 571, 2001, cited from memory. Observation year 2001. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 4, chapter 6
  44. 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Michel-Kerjan, E.O., Catastrophe economics: the National Flood Insurance Program, Journal of Economic Perspectives 24(4), 165 to 186, 2010, cited from memory. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  45. 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cummins, J.D. and Trainar, P., Securitization, insurance, and reinsurance, Journal of Risk and Insurance 76(3), 463 to 492, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  46. 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ben-Shahar, O. and Logue, K.D., Outsourcing regulation: how insurance reduces moral hazard, Michigan Law Review 111(2), 197 to 248, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  47. 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in chapter 6
  48. 48CCRIF SPC (ed.), CCRIF in a Snapshot, brief revised April 2025 (78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025; 30 members as of June 2024). The PDF was opened and its text read. CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03. Cited in the summary, chapter 2, chapter 3, chapter 4, chapter 6

C.2Publication record

Publication

Title
Strategic Systems Report 2026: Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability, Baseline Edition
Series
Reports · Strategic Systems Series SR-06
Edition
Baseline Edition 2026 · inaugural annual
Version
v1.0.0 · draft for stewardship review
Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Evidence close
30 September 2026
Publication date
October 2026
DOI
concept and version DOI at deposit

Publisher

Publisher of record
The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI), for the Nexus Consortium
Place
Toronto
Editor
Saeed Valadbaygi, Chief Steward and Managing Editor
Stewards
GCRI · technical truth · the Global Risks Forum (GRF) · public meaning · the Global Risks Alliance (GRA) · capital meaning
Licence
text CC BY 4.0; data on the terms of each source
Copyright
© 2026 GCRI · Nexus Consortium
Language
English (en-GB) source edition
Correspondence
Registry correction pathway · editorial office

Colophon

Format
A4 portrait · screen, print and archival PDF
Typefaces
Space Grotesk (display) · Geist (text) · IBM Plex Sans Italic (standfirsts) · IBM Plex Mono (data)
Design standard
Reports Foundational Edition, Volume I, Part VII
Accessibility
tagged PDF and HTML targets; text alternatives for every figure
Production
Reports editorial team, GCRI

Release path for this version

Table C.1Release path for this version
StepWhat happensWhen
Drafteditorial self-check complete at evidence closeOctober 2026
Steward reviewfive passes on the exact draft (keys T · M · F · N)Q4 2026
Approvalpublication authority approves the exact digestbefore release
Depositconcept and version DOI minted; registry pointer setat release
Successionthe 2027 insurance and protection gaps edition reports changes against this baseline2027
Current version
v1.0.0 draft, stewardship review
Previous edition
none, first edition of the series
Next edition
NR-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2027-v1.0.0
Latest version
resolve the concept DOI or the registry record
Correction route
Registry correction pathway
Notice types
erratum · addendum · supersession · withdrawal

C.3Corrections log

0correction notices. No edition has been released yet, so none can be corrected; the log below lists each edition’s current version.

EditionVersionDateStateChangeNotice
SR-06NR-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0October 2026DraftBaseline Edition 2026, inaugural annual edition,None

Notice types: erratum, addendum, supersession, withdrawal. A correction is a new version with a published notice; the earlier version stays resolvable, and no edition is ever edited in silence.

C.4Open record

This edition’s open record

Publication ID
NR-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-v1.0.0
Desk identifier and series alias
NR-STR-SR-06-2026-BL
Collection
None
DOI
Concept and version DOI at deposit, on Zenodo with DataCite metadata
Versions
Each correction is a new version (isNewVersionOf); the concept DOI resolves to the latest
Bundle
RO-Crate 1.2 with CITATION.cff, CodeMeta and PROV-O provenance; a signed manifest
Licence
CC BY 4.0 (SPDX CC-BY-4.0) for original material; metadata CC0 1.0

Credit and identity

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Your iD in the deposit and the contribution record; DataCite can then add the work to your ORCID record
ROR
Your organisation by its ROR identifier, never by a typed name alone
CRediT
Conceptualization, Data curation, Formal analysis, Investigation, Methodology, Software, Validation, Visualisation, Writing, review and editing
Account
None needed to contribute; never a password

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C.5Where this edition sits among the six pillars

Foundry seals the evidence and Universe tests it; Reports publishes it; Standards takes its corrections and Academy teaches from it.

  1. F03 Sealed observations and indicator series Foundry Sealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
  2. F04 After-action and scenario findings for Universe After-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
  3. F05 National Portfolio movement for chapter Foundry National Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
  4. Applied in editions Standards Nexus Standards: applied in editions.
  5. SR-06 edition Reports Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability 2026, published in every format with its sources, citation and corrections.
  6. F06 Method and correction findings as change Standards Method and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
  7. F12 Q4 synthesis informs the next-year Universe Q4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
  8. Taught in the open Academy Risk Academy: taught in the open.

What Foundry and Universe hand to this edition, and what it hands to Standards, Universe and Academy. From the programme spine; SR-06 is a drafted Baseline Edition, so these handoffs run from its first operational quarter.

HandoffBetweenWhat crosses, and when
F03Foundry to ReportsSealed observations and indicator series behind a profile (closeout).
F04Universe to ReportsAfter-action and scenario findings for chapters 10 and 13 (after action review).
F05Foundry to ReportsNational Portfolio movement for chapter 11 (after action review).
RingNexus Standards to ReportsNexus Standards: applied in editions.
F06Reports to Nexus StandardsMethod and correction findings as change proposals (correction).
F12Reports to UniverseQ4 synthesis informs the next-year mandate (renewal).
RingReports to Risk AcademyRisk Academy: taught in the open.

Cite this annex

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Annex C: References and record. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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