Draft, not yet released. In stewardship review. Not indexed until the first approved release.

Key findings

Twelve findings carry the insurance and protection gaps baseline. They are grouped by coupling and never ranked. Each resolves to its source or, where Nexus analysis is involved, to its stated method.

6 min read1 figure0 tables13 notesNR-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Protection gaps are shared risk
  4. 2Key findings
    1. 2.1 Headline finding
    2. 2.2 Finance
    3. 2.3 Climate forcing
    4. 2.4 Development
    5. 2.5 Infrastructure
    6. 2.6 Systemic
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Large insured loss that meets soft pricing and thin backstops
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

2.1Headline finding

ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

The uninsured share of 2025 economic losses is put at 51% by Aon, a record low, and at 56%, or USD 167 billion, by Gallagher Re. Aon links the low share to losses concentrated in the United States.

Figure 2.1Uninsured share of 2025 economic losses (%)
ItemBar, scaled to the largest valueValue
Aon, record low51
Gallagher Re56

Sources: Aon3; Gallagher Re4. Scope differs; the two values are not averaged.

Implication

A low global share does not mean low gaps everywhere. Aon ties it to losses concentrated in a market with high take-up, and Munich Re shows only USD 9 billion insured of about USD 73 billion in Asia-Pacific32.

What would move it

A year with large losses outside the United States, a shared method for the gap, or a published national series would each move this finding.

2.2Finance

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-001

    Four published estimates put 2025 global insured natural catastrophe losses between USD 107 billion and USD 129 billion, and economic losses between USD 220 billion and USD 296 billion.1234

  2. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-002

    The uninsured share of 2025 economic losses is put at 51% by Aon, a record low, and at 56%, or USD 167 billion, by Gallagher Re. Aon links the low share to losses concentrated in the United States.34

  3. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-005

    Swiss Re put the 2023 global protection gap across all perils at USD 1.83 trillion, and natural catastrophe resilience, the insured share of economic losses, at 25.7%, with national values from about 5% to above 80%.5

  4. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-006

    In a US Treasury study of more than 330 insurers and 246 million policies over 2018 to 2022, nonrenewal rates were about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes than in the lowest-risk ones.12

  5. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-007

    The California FAIR Plan held 698,307 policies and USD 773 billion of exposure in September 2026, up 157% and 252% since September 2022.8

  6. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-008

    Florida Citizens held about 1.4 million policies at its September 2023 peak and 439,079 in late November 2025 after rounds of transfers to private insurers.9

  7. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-FIN-010

    Risk-adjusted property catastrophe reinsurance rates fell 14.7% at January 2026 renewals, the largest fall since 2014, while Swiss Re models a peak-loss scenario of about USD 320 billion for 2026 against USD 148 billion at normal levels.12

2.3Climate forcing

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-CLI-003

    Swiss Re reports that secondary perils made up 92% of 2025 insured losses, that the Los Angeles wildfires were the largest insured wildfire loss on sigma records at USD 40 billion, and that insured losses grow 5% to 7% a year in real terms.1

2.4Development

  1. ReportedEQL 3NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-004

    Munich Re puts 2025 losses in Asia-Pacific at about USD 73 billion, of which USD 9 billion was insured, and losses in Africa at about USD 3 billion, with less than a fifth insured.2

  2. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-DEV-011

    Public schemes close part of the gap in different ways: CCRIF made 78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025, the Australian cyclone pool has run since 1 July 2022 with a government guarantee of 10 billion Australian dollars, and Flood Re is planned to run to 2039.161848

2.5Infrastructure

  1. ReportedEQL 4NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-INF-009

    The US flood programme covers nearly 4.5 million policies and almost USD 1.3 trillion of coverage, is authorised only to 11 December 2026, and lapsed from 1 October to 12 November 2025. Most homeowners policies exclude flood.1011

2.6Systemic

  1. Expert inputEQL 2NRF-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE-SYS-012

    The leading compound pathway for 2027 testing is a large insured loss that meets soft reinsurance pricing, short-dated public backstops and thin household cover. § scenario

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 5Artemis (ed.), report of the Swiss Re Institute sigma resilience index published in July 2024 (global protection gap USD 1.83 trillion in 2023; natural catastrophe gap USD 385 billion premium equivalent; natural catastrophe resilience 25.7%; United States 39%; national values from about 5% to above 80%). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  6. 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  7. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  8. 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  9. 16Flood Re (ed.), About us (reinsurance scheme for affordable flood cover in home insurance; planned to run until 2039). Flood Re, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  10. 18Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ed.), Cyclone Reinsurance Pool (commenced 1 July 2022; annually reinstated government guarantee of 10 billion, stated as dollars and read here as Australian dollars; mitigation discounts; cost-neutral to government over the longer term). ARPC, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  11. 48CCRIF SPC (ed.), CCRIF in a Snapshot, brief revised April 2025 (78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025; 30 members as of June 2024). The PDF was opened and its text read. CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  12. 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  13. 11FEMA (ed.), FloodSmart (most homeowners insurance does not cover flood damage; almost one third of NFIP claims come from outside high-risk flood areas, stated as 29%). Federal Emergency Management Agency, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 2: Key findings. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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