Readings from the other desks
The global baseline is read through each steward’s lens, then once as a whole. Each lens is a projection of reviewed findings, not a separate argument. The other desks’ own editions of this subject are listed first, as cross-references, not copies.
Contents
- ·Edition home
- ·Executive summary
- 1Protection gaps are shared risk
- 2Key findings
- 3Systems and sectors at baseline
- 4Risks and capability
- 5Large insured loss that meets soft pricing and thin backstops
- 6Readings from the other desks
- 6.1 The other desks’ editions of this subject
- 6.2 Three lenses
- 6.3 Standards, Academy and steward contributions
- 6.4 GCRI reading: the model card
- 6.5 Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
- 6.6 Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 insurance and protection gaps readiness pack
- 6.7 Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
- 6.8 Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
- 7The 2027 agenda
- 8Systems in depth
- AMethodology
- BData appendix
- CReferences and record
- ·Complete edition, for print
6.1The other desks’ editions of this subject
Federation: each desk writes its own edition for the subjects in its remit. Until a desk releases, its edition shows its frame and the reading this edition printed for it.
| Desk | Edition | State | Identifier |
|---|---|---|---|
| GCRI Systems Evidence | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| GRF Public Deliberation | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| GRA Capital Readiness | No edition of this subject at this desk in the 2026 Baseline cycle | Not in this cycle | |
| Standards Progress | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Academy Capability | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit | |
| Index Measurement | Outside this desk’s remit | Not in remit |
6.2Three lenses
One edition, read by each steward. The lens of this site comes first.
GCRI · KEY T
Technical Truth
The evidence supports reading protection gaps as shared risk. Common causes recur across markets, loss spreads through nonrenewal, residual markets and short-dated public schemes, and thresholds such as scheme deadlines and reinsurance pricing set how far it travels. Evidence is strongest for loss totals and weakest for household affordability.
FIN-001 · FIN-006 · INF-009 · SYS-012
GRF · KEY M
Public Meaning
For most people a protection gap arrives as a refused renewal, a flood claim that is not covered or a repair bill with no payout. The baseline asks that public debate treat insurance as shared and keep take-up and affordability in view.
FIN-002 · FIN-006 · INF-009
GRA · KEY F
Capital Meaning
Readiness implications only. Loss trends are rising, reinsurance prices fell at January 2026 renewals, and several public schemes run on short terms1210. These show where finance-readiness evidence will matter. Nothing here is advice, a rating or an approval.
FIN-010 · DEV-011
NEXUS
Synthesis
Protection gaps are well described as loss totals and thinly measured as a system. The 2027 programme should bind one-method gap data, test the large-loss pathway and map affordability before the next large event.
SYS-012 · P-01 · P-02
6.3Standards, Academy and steward contributions
How the Nexus Standards drafts, the Risk Academy and the three stewards feed each quarterly edition for insurance and protection gaps. The standards are a preparatory working draft (2026) and are cited as drafts, never as adopted standards.
| Quarter | Edition | Question | Boundary |
|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 | State and Agenda | What matters this year, and what is the starting position? | observed baseline stays distinct from planned work |
| Q2 | Evidence and Build | What new evidence and capability exist? | a configured capability is not a validated result |
| Q3 | Stress Test and Readiness | What do scenarios and tests show? | simulated loss or performance is not observed impact |
| Q4 | Annual Synthesis and Renewal | What changed in the year, and what renews? | release follows review, not event publicity deadlines |
| Steward or body | Role | Contribution route |
|---|---|---|
| The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI Canada) | Lead Institution and Consortium Secretariat; publisher of record; technical truth (key T) | science and practice communities · GCRI gateway |
| The Global Risks Forum (GRF) | leadership, dialogue and the Universe programme; public meaning (key M) | policy, Universe and national adoption · GRF gateway |
| The Global Risks Alliance (GRA) | finance, insurance and development readiness; capital meaning (key F) | finance and insurance · GRA gateway |
| Nexus Standards | preparatory drafts on vocabulary, hazards, indicators and methods | Standards site · working groups HAZ, IND, MTH, FIN, AI |
| Risk Academy | learning pathways tied to the agenda questions | Academy gateway · learning by review |
| Reports strategic desks | insurance chapter inputs: GCRI evidence and GRA readiness | strategic editorial board |
Standards drafts used in this edition
- Risk vocabulary NRS-C1 (424 terms) for terms in the glossary
- Hazard atlas NHS-1 1.1.0 (905 hazards in 120 families) for risk objects
- Seven risk classes: global, catastrophic, existential, emerging, planetary, exponential, frontier-tech
Standards calendar to watch
- Founding calls from 20 October 2026; working groups meet from 5 November 2026
- Inaugural Global Standards Council session, 12 January 2027
- Quarterly reviews in March, June, September and December, aligned with each edition
6.4GCRI reading: the model card
GCRI’s reading of this edition is its model card: what the national model is, what it computes and where it stops. It is printed in full in Annex A, with the methods it belongs to. Annex A, methodology
6.5Global Risks Forum reading: editorial essays
Four signed essays by the Reports editorial team set out the positions this edition takes. They are interpretation, labelled as such; the evidence they draw on is in the findings register.
Households, insurers, reinsurers and governments pass loss to one another. When cover thins at one point, the loss lands on the next. This edition reads the chain, not one line of business.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 01
Insurance is a system
A market can be well priced and still leave most loss uninsured. The gap is the uncovered share, and it differs by country from about 5% to above 80% of losses covered.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 02
Take-up is as important as price
Flood, cyclone and parametric schemes move loss to the public balance sheet. Their terms differ: some run to a set date, some on short authorisations, some on a government guarantee.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 03
Public schemes trade time for cover
Price signals can reward mitigation, and mitigation lowers insured loss. Evidence for this at market scale is thin and sits with sector editions.
EDITORIAL ESSAY · 04
Pricing and prevention work together
6.6Global Risks Alliance reading: 2027 insurance and protection gaps readiness pack
The registers that open the 2027 global cycle. At baseline each is initialised from this edition.
| Item | Register | State at baseline | First 2027 entry |
|---|---|---|---|
| E1 | Global risk state delta | baseline set by this edition | changes against the baseline |
| E2 | WEFH+B state delta | five global system readings set | indicator updates and freshness |
| E3 | Agenda and Portfolio movement | eight agenda items · 6 proposed objects | admission decisions |
| E4 | Federation delivery register | national chapters in preparation | national chapters |
| E5 | Consortium capability register | national consortia forming | first contributions |
| E6 | Leadership questions and challenges | none yet | first challenge log |
| E7 | Foundry technical state | national environments prepared | first federation cut |
| E8 | Publication candidates | twelve findings carried forward | PUBLISH · HOLD dispositions |
| E9 | Universe readiness | one candidate mission | admission and role spine |
| E10 | Correction register | none | first federation-wide cycle |
Publication dispositions
- Publish
- Hold
- Needs evidence
- Restricted
- Superseded
6.7Nexus Standards reading: standards and regulatory watch
Instruments and published guidance that shape the systems in this edition, by status on the retrieval date. The edition assesses no one’s compliance.
- IN FORCE
- ADOPTED
- PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE
- PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY
| Instrument | Body | Scope | Status | Relevance |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solvency II Directive, amended by Directive (EU) 2025/222 | European Union | EU | IN FORCE | prudential rules |
| IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures21 | ISSB | global use | ISSUED 2023 | climate disclosure |
| Insurance Core Principles29 | IAIS | global | ADOPTED 2019 | supervision |
| Application Paper on climate-related risks30 | IAIS | global | PUBLISHED · GUIDANCE | climate supervision |
| Principles for Sustainable Insurance20 | UNEP FI | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | insurer practice |
| ISO 31000 risk management31 | ISO | global | PUBLISHED · VOLUNTARY | risk process |
| Sendai Framework 2015 to 203028 | UNDRR | global | ADOPTED 2015 | disaster risk reduction |
| National Flood Insurance Act of 196834 | United States | US | IN FORCE | flood programme |
| Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 200233 | United States | US | IN FORCE | terrorism backstop |
| Federal crop insurance programme24 | USDA RMA | US | IN FORCE | crop cover |
| Cyclone Reinsurance Pool18 | Australia | AU | IN FORCE | cyclone and related flood |
Changed since 2024
6.8Risk Academy reading: literature and evidence review, science and assessments
The review behind this edition covers insurance and protection gaps assessments, peer-reviewed science and the institutional reports that bind its findings. Systematic reviews for each agenda item begin in 2027.
Review protocol
- Question
- What does the published evidence establish about the world’s insurance markets, protection gaps and insurability limits and its couplings?
- Sources searched
- insurer and broker loss reports; supervisory papers; scheme statistics; peer-reviewed insurance economics
- Window
- releases available at evidence close, 30 September 2026
- Selection
- sources that bind or contextualise a finding in this edition
- Next step
- systematic reviews for agenda items 01 to 05 in 2027
| Reference | Type | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Arrow38 | journal article | 1963 | framework | uncertainty and insurance |
| Akerlof39 | journal article | 1970 | framework | adverse selection |
| Rothschild and Stiglitz40 | journal article | 1976 | framework | competitive insurance markets |
| Kunreuther and Pauly41 | journal article | 2004 | supports | low take-up of cover |
| Kousky and Cooke42 | journal article | 2012 | supports | failure to insure catastrophic risk |
| Froot43 | journal article | 2001 | supports | catastrophe risk markets |
| Michel-Kerjan44 | journal article | 2010 | context | flood programme economics |
| Cummins and Trainar45 | journal article | 2009 | framework | reinsurance and securitisation |
| Ben-Shahar and Logue46 | journal article | 2012 | framework | insurance and moral hazard |
| Zscheischler et al.47 | journal article | 2018 | framework | compound events |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural catastrophes in 2025, as reported1 | Swiss Re Institute | 2026 | supports | losses and trends |
| World insurance in 2026, as reported6 | Swiss Re Institute | 2026 | context | premium growth |
| Resilience index, as reported5 | Swiss Re Institute | 2024 | supports | protection gap |
| Outlook, as reported7 | Swiss Re Institute | 2025 | context | exposure and premiums |
| Towards a European system1415 | EIOPA and ECB | 2024 | supports | EU proposals |
| Dashboard on the protection gap13 | EIOPA | 2025 | context | European data |
| GAR 202526 | UNDRR | 2025 | context | disaster risk |
| AR6 Working Group II27 | IPCC | 2022 | context | impacts and adaptation |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Natural disaster losses 20252 | Munich Re | 2026 | supports | losses and renewals |
| Climate and Catastrophe Insight 20263 | Aon | 2026 | supports | losses and gap |
| Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report4 | Gallagher Re | 2026 | supports | losses and gap |
| Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey19 | Munich Re | 2026 | supports | cyber premiums |
| Homeowners insurance report12 | US Treasury FIO | 2025 | supports | availability and price |
| NFIP Insight10 | Congressional Research Service | 2026 | supports | flood programme |
| FAIR Plan statistics8 | California FAIR Plan | 2026 | supports | residual market |
| Citizens policy counts9 | News Service of Florida | 2025 | context | residual market |
| Reference | Issuer | Year | Role | Used for |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Solvency II amendments22 | EIOPA | 2026 | context | prudential rules |
| IFRS S221 | ISSB | 2023 | context | climate disclosure |
| Principles for Sustainable Insurance20 | UNEP FI | 2012 | context | insurer principles |
| Insurance Core Principles29 | IAIS | 2019 | context | supervision |
| Climate application paper30 | IAIS | 2021 | context | climate supervision |
| Cyclone pool18 | ARPC | 2022 | supports | public backstop |
| CCRIF snapshot48 | CCRIF | 2025 | supports | parametric cover |
| CCRIF About us17 | CCRIF | 2026 | post-close, context only | later payout totals |
| Flood Re16 | Flood Re | 2026 | context | affordable flood cover |
Where the evidence agrees
Notes
Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references
- 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 10Congressional Research Service (ed.), What Happens If the National Flood Insurance Program (NFIP) Lapses?, Insight IN10835, version of 11 September 2026 (authorised to 11 December 2026; 36 short-term reauthorisations since FY2017; lapses 1 October to 12 November 2025 and 1 to 3 February 2026; borrowing limit USD 30.425 billion; nearly 4.5 million policies; almost USD 1.3 trillion coverage). Library of Congress, Washington. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 22EIOPA (ed.), Solvency II (Directive (EU) 2025/2 amends the framework; new rules apply from 30 January 2027). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 21IFRS Foundation (ed.), IFRS S2 Climate-related Disclosures (issued June 2023; effective for periods from 1 January 2024; amendments to greenhouse gas emissions disclosures issued December 2025). ISSB, London. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 29UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAIS (ed.), Insurance Core Principles, Standards, Guidance and Assessment Methodology, adopted November 2019, cited from memory. International Association of Insurance Supervisors, Basel. Observation year 2019. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 30UNVERIFIED, not opened: IAIS (ed.), Application Paper on the Supervision of Climate-related Risks in the Insurance Sector, May 2021, cited from memory. International Association of Insurance Supervisors, Basel. Observation year 2021. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 20UNEP Finance Initiative (ed.), Principles for Sustainable Insurance (launched 2012; close to 300 members). United Nations Environment Programme, Geneva. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 31UNVERIFIED, not opened: ISO 31000:2018, Risk management: guidelines. International Organization for Standardization, Geneva. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 28UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Sendai Framework for Disaster Risk Reduction 2015 to 2030, cited from memory; the monitoring host was not reachable. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2015. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 34UNVERIFIED, not opened: National Flood Insurance Act of 1968, Title XIII of the Housing and Urban Development Act of 1968, cited from memory; no figure used. United States Congress, Washington. Observation year 1968. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 33UNVERIFIED, not opened: Terrorism Risk Insurance Act of 2002, Public Law 107-297, cited from memory; no figure used. United States Congress, Washington. Observation year 2002. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 24USDA Risk Management Agency (ed.), About RMA (created 1996; supports the private insurers that sell federal crop insurance). US Department of Agriculture, Washington. Observation year 1996. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 18Australian Reinsurance Pool Corporation (ed.), Cyclone Reinsurance Pool (commenced 1 July 2022; annually reinstated government guarantee of 10 billion, stated as dollars and read here as Australian dollars; mitigation discounts; cost-neutral to government over the longer term). ARPC, Canberra. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 14EIOPA and ECB (eds.), Towards a European system for natural catastrophe risk management (publication page; 18 December 2024; proposes an EU public-private reinsurance scheme and an EU fund for public disaster financing). EIOPA, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 15European Central Bank and Banque de France (eds.), press release on the ECB and EIOPA proposal for a European approach to natural catastrophes (18 December 2024; page updated 24 September 2026). Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 38UNVERIFIED, not opened: Arrow, K.J., Uncertainty and the welfare economics of medical care, American Economic Review 53(5), 941 to 973, 1963, cited from memory. Observation year 1963. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 39UNVERIFIED, not opened: Akerlof, G.A., The market for lemons: quality uncertainty and the market mechanism, Quarterly Journal of Economics 84(3), 488 to 500, 1970, cited from memory. Observation year 1970. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 40UNVERIFIED, not opened: Rothschild, M. and Stiglitz, J., Equilibrium in competitive insurance markets: an essay on the economics of imperfect information, Quarterly Journal of Economics 90(4), 629 to 649, 1976, cited from memory. Observation year 1976. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 41UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kunreuther, H. and Pauly, M., Neglecting disaster: why don’t people insure against large losses?, Journal of Risk and Uncertainty 28(1), 5 to 21, 2004, cited from memory. Observation year 2004. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 42UNVERIFIED, not opened: Kousky, C. and Cooke, R., Explaining the failure to insure catastrophic risks, Geneva Papers on Risk and Insurance 37, 206 to 227, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 43UNVERIFIED, not opened: Froot, K.A., The market for catastrophe risk: a clinical examination, Journal of Financial Economics 60, 529 to 571, 2001, cited from memory. Observation year 2001. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 44UNVERIFIED, not opened: Michel-Kerjan, E.O., Catastrophe economics: the National Flood Insurance Program, Journal of Economic Perspectives 24(4), 165 to 186, 2010, cited from memory. Observation year 2010. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 45UNVERIFIED, not opened: Cummins, J.D. and Trainar, P., Securitization, insurance, and reinsurance, Journal of Risk and Insurance 76(3), 463 to 492, 2009, cited from memory. Observation year 2009. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 46UNVERIFIED, not opened: Ben-Shahar, O. and Logue, K.D., Outsourcing regulation: how insurance reduces moral hazard, Michigan Law Review 111(2), 197 to 248, 2012, cited from memory. Observation year 2012. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 47UNVERIFIED, not opened: Zscheischler, J. et al., Future climate risk from compound events, Nature Climate Change 8, 469 to 477, 2018, cited from memory. Springer Nature. Observation year 2018. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 6Risk and Insurance (ed.), report of Swiss Re Institute, World insurance in 2026: shock absorbers in a fragmenting world, July 2026 (real premium growth 3.9% in 2025, 1.3% in 2026 and 1.6% in 2027). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 5Artemis (ed.), report of the Swiss Re Institute sigma resilience index published in July 2024 (global protection gap USD 1.83 trillion in 2023; natural catastrophe gap USD 385 billion premium equivalent; natural catastrophe resilience 25.7%; United States 39%; national values from about 5% to above 80%). The sigma report was not opened. Observation year 2023. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 7Artemis (ed.), report of Swiss Re Institute insurance market outlook, July 2025 (inflation-adjusted natural catastrophe exposure growth of 5% to 7% a year, faster than premiums). The outlook itself was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 13EIOPA (ed.), Dashboard on insurance protection gap for natural catastrophes (30 European countries; insurance coverage and economic loss data from 1980 to 2024; page updated December 2025). European Insurance and Occupational Pensions Authority, Frankfurt. Observation year 2024. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 26UNVERIFIED, not opened: UNDRR (ed.), Global Assessment Report on Disaster Risk Reduction 2025: Resilience Pays, cited from memory; no figure used. United Nations Office for Disaster Risk Reduction, Geneva. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 27UNVERIFIED, not opened: IPCC, Climate Change 2022: Impacts, Adaptation and Vulnerability, Working Group II contribution to the Sixth Assessment Report, cited from memory; no figure used; the IPCC page returned an access error. Cambridge University Press. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 19Munich Re (ed.), Global Cyber Risk and Insurance Survey 2026 (premium volume nearly USD 15 billion in 2025; about USD 28 billion forecast for 2030; over 9,500 respondents in 20 countries). Munich Re, Munich. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 12US Department of the Treasury, Federal Insurance Office (ed.), Homeowners insurance report, press release of 16 January 2025 (more than 330 insurers; 246 million policies; 2018 to 2022; ZIP Code level; nonrenewal rates about 80% higher in the highest-risk ZIP Codes). The report itself was not opened. Observation year 2022. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 9News Service of Florida (ed.), report on Florida Citizens Property Insurance Corporation policy counts, 25 November 2025 (439,079 policies; peak of about 1.4 million in September 2023). Read through a television station republication. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 48CCRIF SPC (ed.), CCRIF in a Snapshot, brief revised April 2025 (78 payouts totalling about USD 390 million between June 2007 and April 2025; 30 members as of June 2024). The PDF was opened and its text read. CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 17POST-CLOSE, context only: CCRIF SPC (ed.), About us (40 members; 83 payouts and about USD 500 million paid from June 2007 to October 2026; eight parametric products). CCRIF SPC, Grand Cayman. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
- 16Flood Re (ed.), About us (reinsurance scheme for affordable flood cover in home insurance; planned to run until 2039). Flood Re, London. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back