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The 2027 agenda

Eight bounded questions open the 2027 insurance and protection gaps agenda. Each comes from a baseline finding, names the initiative that will carry it and the first output due in the 2027 insurance and protection gaps edition.

6 min read0 figures6 tables5 notesNR-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE

Contents
  1. ·Edition home
  2. ·Executive summary
  3. 1Protection gaps are shared risk
  4. 2Key findings
  5. 3Systems and sectors at baseline
  6. 4Risks and capability
  7. 5Large insured loss that meets soft pricing and thin backstops
  8. 6Readings from the other desks
  9. 7The 2027 agenda
    1. 7.1 Questions for the operational series
    2. 7.2 Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment
    3. 7.3 The pathway
    4. 7.4 Universe 2027: evidence pack for the insurance and protection gaps candidate mission
    5. 7.5 Handoffs and routing
    6. 7.6 Feeds and signal register
  10. 8Systems in depth
  11. AMethodology
  12. BData appendix
  13. CReferences and record
  14. ·Complete edition, for print

7.1Questions for the operational series

  1. P-01

    How would a large insured loss that meets soft reinsurance pricing and short-dated public backstops move through households, lenders and governments?

    INI-SR06-LOSS-01 · compound loss and backstop test; first output: transmission analysis for six regions.

  2. P-02

    What is the global protection gap for 2025 on one stated method, and why do published estimates differ?

    INI-SR06-GAP-02 · one-method gap; first output: reconciliation table.

  3. P-03

    Where is cover becoming unavailable or unaffordable, and how fast, outside the United States?

    INI-SR06-AVL-03 · availability and affordability; first output: availability table.

  4. P-04

    Which residual markets and public schemes are growing, and how are they funded after a large loss?

    INI-SR06-RES-04 · residual markets and backstops; first output: scheme register.

  5. P-05

    How do prevention, pricing and cover interact for wildfire, flood and storm?

    INI-SR06-PRV-05 · prevention and pricing; first output: evidence note.

  6. P-06

    How large is the insured share of cyber loss, and where does it accumulate?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  7. P-07

    What do health, mortality and crop protection gaps look like after 2023?

    To be admitted in 2027; first output: scoping note.

  8. P-08

    Which risk-financing capabilities have been tested in real losses, and which are only planned?

    Risk-financing capability register; first output: rung evidence for 15 functions.

7.2Portfolio proposed for the Q1 2027 alignment

Five initiatives and one Universe mission candidate are proposed for the 2027 insurance portfolio. They are programme objects: no partner, funder or member is attached to them in this edition.

Table 7.1Objects proposed for the first operational quarter
IDObjectKindQuestionState
INI-SR06-LOSS-01Compound loss and backstop testInitiativeP-01PROPOSED
INI-SR06-GAP-02One-method protection gapInitiativeP-02PROPOSED
INI-SR06-AVL-03Availability and affordabilityInitiativeP-03PROPOSED
INI-SR06-RES-04Residual markets and backstopsInitiativeP-04PROPOSED
INI-SR06-PRV-05Prevention and pricingInitiativeP-05PROPOSED
MSN-SR06-2027-01Large insured loss Universe missionMissionP-01Candidate

7.3The pathway

The insurance edition reads national insurance chapters, sector editions and the global edition through one governed evidence graph. At baseline the federation is designed and its first editions are drafted. This page states what exists today and what comes next.

  1. 01

    National insurance chapters

    insurance and protection gap reading in each national edition

    IN PREPARATION · national baselines

  2. 02

    Sector editions

    finance, disaster, climate, cyber, health

    PLANNED · sector Baseline Editions

  3. 03

    Insurance and protection gap model

    the global risk-financing system of systems

    v0 SPECIFIED · v1 with federation evidence

  4. 04

    Strategic links

    SR-01 · SR-05 sovereign and fiscal resilience · SR-14 resilience investment

    PLANNED · strategic baselines

  5. 05

    Universe

    annual proving environment

    CANDIDATE MISSION · mandate in 2027

  6. 06

    Insurance Report

    this series

    BASELINE DRAFT · 2027 annual edition

  7. 07

    Evidence and correction

    one graph, many projections

    OPEN · first correction cycle in 2027

7.4Universe 2027: evidence pack for the insurance and protection gaps candidate mission

  1. 01

    Mandate

  2. 02

    Core Build · 1 month

  3. 03

    Action · 1 week

  4. 04

    Evidence seal

  5. 05

    Portfolio correction

  6. 06

    Next mandate

Table 7.2Universe 2027: evidence pack for the insurance and protection gaps candidate mission
ItemRecordStateTiming
F1Annual mandate recordPLANNEDafter the Q2 2027 alignment
F2Core Build recordPLANNEDone month before the exercise
F3Exercise evidencePLANNEDduring the Action week
F4Decision packetsPLANNEDexercise state only
F5Proof receiptsPLANNEDscoped to each recorded check
F6After-action reportPLANNEDwithin one quarter
F7Upgrade docketPLANNEDrouted to the Portfolio
F8Portfolio renewalPLANNED2027 insurance and protection gaps annual edition
F9Public synthesisPLANNEDpublic-safe extracts only

Mission

ID
MSN-SR06-2027-01 · Large insured loss Universe mission
Role spine
Leadership sponsor · Institutional anchor · Mission lead: drawn from national pathways
Receiving actors
to be identified with the mandate

7.5Handoffs and routing

Where the baseline’s findings go next. A handoff routes a finding for awareness, review or work; it transfers no authority.

Table 7.3Handoffs and routing
FindingRouted toPurposeClass
FIN-001 · loss totalsINI-SR06-GAP-02one-method gapPUBLIC
FIN-002 · protection gapINI-SR06-GAP-02one-method gapPUBLIC
FIN-006 · availabilityINI-SR06-AVL-03availability and affordabilityPUBLIC
FIN-007 · residual marketINI-SR06-RES-04residual markets and backstopsPUBLIC
INF-009 · flood schemeINI-SR06-RES-04residual markets and backstopsPUBLIC
CLI-003 · secondary perilsINI-SR06-PRV-05prevention and pricingPUBLIC
DEV-011 · public schemessector editionsscheme registerPUBLIC
SYS-012 · compound pathwayMSN-SR06-2027-01Universe candidateCONSORTIUM
Table 7.4Routing rules by publication class
ClassWhere it goesWho can see it
PUBLICthe published edition and its evidence bundleanyone
CONSORTIUMgoverned rooms of the federationconsortium members under agreement
CONTROLLEDneed-to-know channelsnamed competent actors only

7.6Feeds and signal register

Table 7.5Feeds watched from 2027
FeedProducerLatencyFeeds into
Annual natural catastrophe loss reportsSwiss Re Institute, Munich Re, Aon, Gallagher ReannualFIN-001
Residual market statisticsCalifornia FAIR PlanquarterlyFIN-007
Policy countsFlorida CitizensweeklyFIN-008
Flood programme authorisationCongressional Research Serviceper extensionINF-009
European protection gap dashboardEIOPAannualFIN-001
Parametric payoutsCCRIFper eventDEV-011
Homeowners market data callNAICannualFIN-006

Escalation routes

  • none · keep monitoring
  • research question
  • project
  • risk object
  • annual publication
  • signal report
Table 7.6Signals at baseline
IDSignalCorroborationSystemsRoute
SIG-SR06-001Four loss estimates differ by USD 22 billion on insured loss1234CORROBORATEDFIN · CLIresearch question P-02
SIG-SR06-002Residual market exposure rose 252% in four years8CORROBORATEDFIN · INFresearch question P-04
SIG-SR06-003Reinsurance rates fell 14.7% at January 2026 renewals2PARTIALFIN · TRDrisk object RSK-SR06-FIN-001

Notes

Numbers are the edition’s reference numbers, so a note reads the same in every chapter. The full list, with every source and its licence, is in Annex C. Annex C, references

  1. 1Insurance Journal and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Swiss Re Institute, sigma 1/2026, Natural catastrophes in 2025: the persistent rise of wildfire and storm risk (insured losses USD 107 billion; economic losses USD 220 billion; 92% from secondary perils; Los Angeles wildfires USD 40 billion; trend 5% to 7% a year; 2026 normal level USD 148 billion and peak scenario about USD 320 billion), articles of March 2026. The sigma report itself was not opened; the Swiss Re page returned an access error. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  2. 2Insurance Journal, Insurance Business and Reinsurance News (eds.), reports of Munich Re, natural disaster losses in 2025, 13 January 2026 (overall losses about USD 224 billion; insured about USD 108 billion; Asia-Pacific about USD 73 billion overall and USD 9 billion insured; Africa about USD 3 billion; January 2026 reinsurance rates down 14.7%). One article printed USD 244 billion for overall losses, a typographical conflict with USD 224 billion elsewhere. The Munich Re release was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  3. 3Aon (ed.), 2026 Climate and Catastrophe Insight (page read to character 100,000 of 220,843: economic losses USD 260 billion; insured losses USD 127 billion; protection gap 51%, a record low). Aon, London. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  4. 4Reinsurance News (ed.), report of Gallagher Re, Natural Catastrophe and Climate Report, full year 2025 (insured losses USD 129 billion; economic losses USD 296 billion; protection gap 56% or USD 167 billion; United States USD 100 billion or 78%). The Gallagher Re report was not opened. Observation year 2025. Accessed 2026-11-03.back
  5. 8California FAIR Plan Association (ed.), Key Statistics and Data (September 2026: 698,307 policies in force; exposure USD 773 billion; written premium USD 2.04 billion; policies up 157% and exposure up 252% since September 2022). California FAIR Plan Association, Los Angeles. Observation year 2026. Accessed 2026-11-03.back

Cite this chapter

Valadbaygi, S. (Ed.). (2026). Chapter 7: The 2027 agenda. In Strategic Systems Report 2026: Insurance, Protection Gaps and Insurability (Baseline Edition 2026, Report No. NR-STRATEGIC-INSURANCE-GLOBAL-2026-BASELINE) [Draft under review]. The Global Centre for Risk and Innovation (GCRI).

Every citation form of the whole report, BibTeX and RIS included, is on the edition home. Cite this report

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